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000
FXUS63 KSGF 021925
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
225 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.

The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.

As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 021656
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.

One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.

General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 021656
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.

One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.

General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 021145
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.

One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.

General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Cloud cover will be the rule for much of the forecast for the
regions terminals through Tuesday early morning. Ceilings will be
MVFR through this morning with VFR ceilings expected for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. A few showers will also be
possible for the Springfield and Branson aerodromes early this
morning. Overall flight conditions will begin to improve
overnight as cloud cover scatters out early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch





000
FXUS63 KSGF 020800
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at
times.

One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.

General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.

Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.

Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 020514
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.

An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.

Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.

Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 020514
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.

An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A weak upper level storm system will produce a few light rain
showers across southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will also
lower into the MVFR category by late tonight. There is still a
signal for a brief period of IFR ceilings just after
sunrise...especially around Springfield.

Ceilings will then improve from mid-morning onward on Monday.
However, MVFR will remain likely through at least early afternoon.

Winds will remain out of the northwest generally below 10 knots.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 012339
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.

An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A weak upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings and a
few showers to the region overnight. Confidence is high that MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight with ceilings approaching IFR by
sunrise.

Confidence was then high enough to include prevailing IFR around
Springfield for a few hours. Confidence was slightly lower at
Joplin, so we include a mention of IFR in a TEMPO group. At this
point, confidence was too low at Branson to insert an IFR mention.

Ceilings will then slowly improve later Monday morning although
MVFR may hang on for much of the day.

Winds through Monday will remain out of the northwest generally
below 9 knots.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011957
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level trough is currently located across Iowa this
afternoon. This trough will slowly push southeast through the
region through Monday, as a secondary trough dives south through
the area Monday night into Tuesday.

Clouds will continue to increase from north to south through
tonight as the trough slides southeast. A few light showers will
be possible at times tonight and Monday. Rainfall amounts will be
on the light side with a trace to a few hundredths occurring
across locations that see rainfall.

Cooler conditions will spread into the area early this week. Highs
on Monday will only warm to around the 60 degree mark, with some
locations remaining in the upper 50s. Lows Monday night will drop
into the lower 40s as the cooler air mass and surface high
pressure is over the region. Highs on Tuesday will be slightly
warming than Monday, but still temperatures will only warm into
the middle 60s, as lows drop into the middle to upper 40s Tuesday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.

An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. However, some
lower ceilings will be possible late tonight. We could even
experience some IFR ceiling heights.

Otherwise look for a cold front to shift through bringing
northerly winds by this evening and tonight. No precipitation is
expected over the next 24 hours.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Cramer





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011734
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Sfc low pressure over far se Neb extends east to a sfc wave near
KSTL and western IL while a trailing sfc cold front extends south
over our far eastern cwfa in south central MO. Drier sfc air has
moved into all but our far se counties. Earlier convection has
weakened while shifting south and east of the area. Where higher
dew points hang on, some fog will occur where the sky clears
(already seeing that at KUNO and on webcams over south central
MO). Fog is expected to become more common as the sky continues to
clear over south central MO over the next few hours. Some
fog may also occur near lakes.

An upper level shortwave along the eastern Neb/KS border will move
east helping to ease the sfc low and trailing front away from our
area. Warmer temperatures will hold on over our eastern counties
today before drier/cooler winds veer more to the nw-nnw tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A blocking pattern will remain established with a high amplitude
ridge over western NOAM. We will be on the downstream side of the
ridge with nw flow shortwaves keeping us cool with some
clouds/sprinkles/very light trace amount rain at times Mon and
Tue. Will carry some low pops for measurable rain in the fcst for
this time period somewhat favoring the afternoon/early evening
periods.

We will see the tail end of one more shortwave moving southeast
through the Midwest Wed. Unseasonably cool temperatures early in
the week will moderate somewhat through Wed. Then after a brief
cool down again Thu, temperatures should warm nicely for the end
of the week as the western upper level ridge axis moves into the
Plains. Some areas could see or at least push 80 deg F over the
western cwfa Sat.

In terms of impactful weather this week, it looks quiet. Very good
agreement with operational global models (ECMWF and GFS) through
Saturday starts to break down a bit in terms of how quickly another
system will move into the Plains early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. However, some
lower ceilings will be possible late tonight. We could even
experience some IFR ceiling heights.

Otherwise look for a cold front to shift through bringing
northerly winds by this evening and tonight. No precipitation is
expected over the next 24 hours.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011135
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Sfc low pressure over far se Neb extends east to a sfc wave near
KSTL and western IL while a trailing sfc cold front extends south
over our far eastern cwfa in south central MO. Drier sfc air has
moved into all but our far se counties. Earlier convection has
weakened while shifting south and east of the area. Where higher
dew points hang on, some fog will occur where the sky clears
(already seeing that at KUNO and on webcams over south central
MO). Fog is expected to become more common as the sky continues to
clear over south central MO over the next few hours. Some
fog may also occur near lakes.

An upper level shortwave along the eastern Neb/KS border will move
east helping to ease the sfc low and trailing front away from our
area. Warmer temperatures will hold on over our eastern counties
today before drier/cooler winds veer more to the nw-nnw tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A blocking pattern will remain established with a high amplitude
ridge over western NOAM. We will be on the downstream side of the
ridge with nw flow shortwaves keeping us cool with some
clouds/sprinkles/very light trace amount rain at times Mon and
Tue. Will carry some low pops for measurable rain in the fcst for
this time period somewhat favoring the afternoon/early evening
periods.

We will see the tail end of one more shortwave moving southeast
through the Midwest Wed. Unseasonably cool temperatures early in
the week will moderate somewhat through Wed. Then after a brief
cool down again Thu, temperatures should warm nicely for the end
of the week as the western upper level ridge axis moves into the
Plains. Some areas could see or at least push 80 deg F over the
western cwfa Sat.

In terms of impactful weather this week, it looks quiet. Very good
agreement with operational global models (ECMWF and GFS) through
Saturday starts to break down a bit in terms of how quickly another
system will move into the Plains early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Areas of fog had formed across south
central Missouri early this morning, but have not affected any of
the TAF sites. Best potential for seeing some shallow fog next
few hours will be at KBBG. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions will
prevail through 06Z tonight. Between 06Z and 12Z a shortwave
trough will drop through southern Missouri which will switch winds
to a more northerly direction. Short term models are consistent
with bringing in a stratus deck behind the system. Expect ceilings
to drop overnight into the MVFR and then IFR category by 12Z
Monday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding





000
FXUS63 KSGF 010819
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Sfc low pressure over far se Neb extends east to a sfc wave near
KSTL and western IL while a trailing sfc cold front extends south
over our far eastern cwfa in south central MO. Drier sfc air has
moved into all but our far se counties. Earlier convection has
weakened while shifting south and east of the area. Where higher
dew points hang on, some fog will occur where the sky clears
(already seeing that at KUNO and on webcams over south central
MO). Fog is expected to become more common as the sky continues to
clear over south central MO over the next few hours. Some
fog may also occur near lakes.

An upper level shortwave along the eastern Neb/KS border will move
east helping to ease the sfc low and trailing front away from our
area. Warmer temperatures will hold on over our eastern counties
today before drier/cooler winds veer more to the nw-nnw tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A blocking pattern will remain established with a high amplitude
ridge over western NOAM. We will be on the downstream side of the
ridge with nw flow shortwaves keeping us cool with some
clouds/sprinkles/very light trace amount rain at times Mon and
Tue. Will carry some low pops for measurable rain in the fcst for
this time period somewhat favoring the afternoon/early evening
periods.

We will see the tail end of one more shortwave moving southeast
through the Midwest Wed. Unseasonably cool temperatures early in
the week will moderate somewhat through Wed. Then after a brief
cool down again Thu, temperatures should warm nicely for the end
of the week as the western upper level ridge axis moves into the
Plains. Some areas could see or at least push 80 deg F over the
western cwfa Sat.

In terms of impactful weather this week, it looks quiet. Very good
agreement with operational global models (ECMWF and GFS) through
Saturday starts to break down a bit in terms of how quickly another
system will move into the Plains early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Patchy fog is expected late tonight and early Sunday morning as
winds become nearly calm. The fog will be shallow in nature with
visibilities being highly variable.

Any fog will then dissipate by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR
expected into the evening. Winds will be light out of the west on
Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 010819
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Sfc low pressure over far se Neb extends east to a sfc wave near
KSTL and western IL while a trailing sfc cold front extends south
over our far eastern cwfa in south central MO. Drier sfc air has
moved into all but our far se counties. Earlier convection has
weakened while shifting south and east of the area. Where higher
dew points hang on, some fog will occur where the sky clears
(already seeing that at KUNO and on webcams over south central
MO). Fog is expected to become more common as the sky continues to
clear over south central MO over the next few hours. Some
fog may also occur near lakes.

An upper level shortwave along the eastern Neb/KS border will move
east helping to ease the sfc low and trailing front away from our
area. Warmer temperatures will hold on over our eastern counties
today before drier/cooler winds veer more to the nw-nnw tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A blocking pattern will remain established with a high amplitude
ridge over western NOAM. We will be on the downstream side of the
ridge with nw flow shortwaves keeping us cool with some
clouds/sprinkles/very light trace amount rain at times Mon and
Tue. Will carry some low pops for measurable rain in the fcst for
this time period somewhat favoring the afternoon/early evening
periods.

We will see the tail end of one more shortwave moving southeast
through the Midwest Wed. Unseasonably cool temperatures early in
the week will moderate somewhat through Wed. Then after a brief
cool down again Thu, temperatures should warm nicely for the end
of the week as the western upper level ridge axis moves into the
Plains. Some areas could see or at least push 80 deg F over the
western cwfa Sat.

In terms of impactful weather this week, it looks quiet. Very good
agreement with operational global models (ECMWF and GFS) through
Saturday starts to break down a bit in terms of how quickly another
system will move into the Plains early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Patchy fog is expected late tonight and early Sunday morning as
winds become nearly calm. The fog will be shallow in nature with
visibilities being highly variable.

Any fog will then dissipate by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR
expected into the evening. Winds will be light out of the west on
Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 010456
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Dryline currently moving across the forecast area this afternoon
is expected to spark storms that will affect mainly the eastern
Ozarks through this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible through early evening as mentioned in the previous
mesoscale discussion.

Otherwise expect sky cover to continue clearing from west to
east as drier airmass behind the cold front spreads across the
area and main area of low pressure over the central Plains pushes
eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the 40s over the western Ozarks and southeast Kansas tonight.

Still looks like we will have temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Models have increased the coverage of precipitation associated
with passage of upper level trough axis on Monday/Monday night...but
continue to keep accumulations low. Instability is low to nil so
will keep thunder out of the forecast.

The rest of the work week looks dry as high pressure builds
across the region and upper ridge sets up across the
Rockies. There may be some increase in cloud cover Wednesday night
as a weak disturbance drops southeast around the back side of the Great
Lakes upper trough.

Storm activity may pick up late next weekend as an upper level
trough develops over the southwest U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Patchy fog is expected late tonight and early Sunday morning as
winds become nearly calm. The fog will be shallow in nature with
visibilities being highly variable.

Any fog will then dissipate by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR
expected into the evening. Winds will be light out of the west on
Sunday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 302342
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussions...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Storms have finally developed early this evening across south-
central Missouri and portions of the eastern Ozarks. These storms
have initiated in a weakly convergent area along a surface cold
frontal boundary. The atmosphere in this area is characterized by
a moderately unstable atmosphere (MLCAPEs 1200-1700 J/kg) with
decent mid-level lapse rates. Effective bulk shears are weak,
however higher values (30-35 knots) have impinged on the storms
near the Arkansas border as a secondary jet streak approaches this
region. This feature has likely resulted in the more robust
convection across this area.

Heading through mid-evening, a severe threat will remain across
south-central Missouri as effective bulk shear continues to
increase and the front/storm outflows initiate additional
convection. Storms should then begin to weaken and push out of
the eastern Ozarks around mid-evening as instability decreases and
the front shifts east of the region.

On another note, we have added a mention of patchy fog to much of
southern and portions of central Missouri for later tonight. Dew
point depressions will become almost nil with winds become very
light. Area lakes will also see good potential for fog as lake
temps are in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Dryline currently moving across the forecast area this afternoon
is expected to spark storms that will affect mainly the eastern
Ozarks through this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible through early evening as mentioned in the previous
mesoscale discussion.

Otherwise expect sky cover to continue clearing from west to
east as drier airmass behind the cold front spreads across the
area and main area of low pressure over the central Plains pushes
eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the 40s over the western Ozarks and southeast Kansas tonight.

Still looks like we will have temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Models have increased the coverage of precipitation associated
with passage of upper level trough axis on Monday/Monday night...but
continue to keep accumulations low. Instability is low to nil so
will keep thunder out of the forecast.

The rest of the work week looks dry as high pressure builds
across the region and upper ridge sets up across the
Rockies. There may be some increase in cloud cover Wednesday night
as a weak disturbance drops southeast around the back side of the Great
Lakes upper trough.

Storm activity may pick up late next weekend as an upper level
trough develops over the southwest U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Skies will clear off this evening with VFR expected for much of
the night. There is then increasing potential for patchy/shallow
fog late tonight and early Sunday morning as winds become light.
Visibilities in these situations are often highly variable. Any
fog should then dissipate by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR
returning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 302002
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Dryline currently moving across the forecast area this afternoon
is expected to spark storms that will affect mainly the eastern
Ozarks through this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible through early evening as mentioned in the previous
mesoscale discussion.

Otherwise expect sky cover to continue clearing from west to
east as drier airmass behind the cold front spreads across the
area and main area of low pressure over the central Plains pushes
eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the 40s over the western Ozarks and southeast Kansas tonight.

Still looks like we will have temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Models have increased the coverage of precipitation associated
with passage of upper level trough axis on Monday/Monday night...but
continue to keep accumulations low. Instability is low to nil so
will keep thunder out of the forecast.

The rest of the work week looks dry as high pressure builds
across the region and upper ridge sets up across the
Rockies. There may be some increase in cloud cover Wednesday night
as a weak disturbance drops southeast around the back side of the Great
Lakes upper trough.

Storm activity may pick up late next weekend as an upper level
trough develops over the southwest U.S.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Burchfield





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301836
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The National Weather Service in Springfield is closely monitoring
the eastern Ozarks for organized convective development over the
next few hours.

One minute rapid scan visible satellite shows a dry line slowly
approaching Springfield down to Roaring River State Park at 1820Z.
This feature is moving two to three hours slower than hi-res
models were suggesting this morning.

Meanwhile, a 17Z special RAOB was performed, measuring 1,044 j/kg
of cape from a mixed layer parcel, within a modestly sheared
airmass. The 0-6km bulk shear values were ranging from 25 to 40
knots, which should persist through the afternoon and evening.

Satellite also showed gradual clearing east of the dry line across
Taney, Ozark, Douglas, Wright, and Texas counties. As temperatures
continue to warm into the middle and possibly upper 70s this
afternoon, sufficient instability will evolve for development of
severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Large hail should be more common than damaging winds.

The south southwest surface wind component will mitigate the
potential for tornadoes, but not completely. With low level cape
present within the eastern Ozarks airmass, we have continued a
limited mention of tornadoes. Again, the risk for tornadoes is low
at this time, but not zero.

Stay tuned to future watches or warning due to severe thunderstorm
development across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301821
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The National Weather Service in Springfield is closely monitoring
the eastern Ozarks for organized convective development over the
next few hours.

One minute rapid scan visible satellite shows a dry line slowly
approaching Springfield down to Roaring River State Park at 1820Z.
This feature is moving two to three hours slower than hi-res
models were suggesting this morning.

Meanwhile, a 17Z special RAOB was performed, measuring 1,044 j/kg
of cape from a mixed layer parcel, within a modestly sheared
airmass. The 0-6km bulk shear values were ranging from 25 to 40
knots, which should persist through the afternoon and evening.

Satellite also showed gradual clearing east of the dry line across
Taney, Ozarks, Douglas, Wright, and Texas counties. As
temperatures continue to warm into the middle and possibly upper
70s this afternoon, sufficient instability will evolve for
development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts. Large hail should be more common
than damaging winds.

The south southwest surface wind component will mitigate the
potential for tornadoes, but not completely. With low level cape
present within the eastern Ozarks airmass, we have continued a
limited mention of tornadoes. Again, this risk for tornadoes is
low at this time, but not zero.

Stay tuned to future watches or warning due to severe thunderstorm
development across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301821
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The National Weather Service in Springfield is closely monitoring
the eastern Ozarks for organized convective development over the
next few hours.

One minute rapid scan visible satellite shows a dry line slowly
approaching Springfield down to Roaring River State Park at 1820Z.
This feature is moving two to three hours slower than hi-res
models were suggesting this morning.

Meanwhile, a 17Z special RAOB was performed, measuring 1,044 j/kg
of cape from a mixed layer parcel, within a modestly sheared
airmass. The 0-6km bulk shear values were ranging from 25 to 40
knots, which should persist through the afternoon and evening.

Satellite also showed gradual clearing east of the dry line across
Taney, Ozarks, Douglas, Wright, and Texas counties. As
temperatures continue to warm into the middle and possibly upper
70s this afternoon, sufficient instability will evolve for
development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts. Large hail should be more common
than damaging winds.

The south southwest surface wind component will mitigate the
potential for tornadoes, but not completely. With low level cape
present within the eastern Ozarks airmass, we have continued a
limited mention of tornadoes. Again, this risk for tornadoes is
low at this time, but not zero.

Stay tuned to future watches or warning due to severe thunderstorm
development across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301759
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1259 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicnity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301151
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure centered over eastern
Kansas will move slowly northeast into northeast MO/western IL by
the end of the taf period. A trailing sfc trough/front will move
through our area gradually veering winds to the west. IFR ceilings
to start will lift and scatter out over the next few hours.
Isolated-scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
front after 18z, but most guidance keeps this activity east of the
taf sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301151
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure centered over eastern
Kansas will move slowly northeast into northeast MO/western IL by
the end of the taf period. A trailing sfc trough/front will move
through our area gradually veering winds to the west. IFR ceilings
to start will lift and scatter out over the next few hours.
Isolated-scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
front after 18z, but most guidance keeps this activity east of the
taf sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA





000
FXUS63 KSGF 300808
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
308 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will end overnight
across southern Missouri although scattered activity will remain
possible through dawn. MVFR and localized IFR can be expected
with this activity. A brief improvement to VFR is then expected
for a few hours behind the back edge of the rain before MVFR and
IFR move back in during the predawn hours.

Restricted flight conditions will then continue into early
Saturday morning before conditions begin to improve from mid to
late morning. VFR is expected to return by midday. Some re-
development of thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon,
however we believe that this will occur just east of the
Springfield and Branson aerodromes.

Easterly winds tonight will slowly veer around to the southwest by
Saturday afternoon.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 300525
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

After a lull in the precipitation this afternoon expect showers
and thunderstorms to overspread the region from late this
afternoon into this evening and overnight. Convection across the
central and southern Plains will continue to increase and spread
east and northeast as a shortwave trough lifts northeast. In
addition a surface warm front will lift north from the Red River
Valley as surface cyclogenesis takes place over the Plains.
Strengthening synoptic scale lift within increasingly diffluent
flow aloft will support widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms tonight.

The potential for severe storms is conditional based on the
degree of instability that develops. Models suggest most unstable
CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG nosing into extreme southeastern Kansas
and far southwestern Missouri as the evening progresses while the
low levels continue to moisten. Given the strong lift and deep
layer shear up to 50 kts strong if not locally severe convection is
not out of the question.

Expect tonight`s convection to push off to the east late tonight
and early Saturday as the shortwave swings northeast.

The primary upper level low will migrate eastward into the central
Plains Saturday while an associated cold front pushes east into
the Ozarks during the day. Forcing along this front coupled with
ample instability and deep layer shear will support the potential
for strong to severe storms mainly east of highway 65 during the
afternoon into the early evening. However deep mean layer
moisture looks to decrease during the day as a mid level dry slot
moses eastward. This could limit the development or least coverage
of convection Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An extended period of relatively quiet weather will unfold as we
head into next week. Variable cloud cover and perhaps a few light
showers may linger Sunday and Monday as another system tracks to
our south. Otherwise models prog the evolution of a more
northwesterly flow aloft as the week progresses. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will end overnight
across southern Missouri although scattered activity will remain
possible through dawn. MVFR and localized IFR can be expected
with this activity. A brief improvement to VFR is then expected
for a few hours behind the back edge of the rain before MVFR and
IFR move back in during the predawn hours.

Restricted flight conditions will then continue into early
Saturday morning before conditions begin to improve from mid to
late morning. VFR is expected to return by midday. Some re-
development of thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon,
however we believe that this will occur just east of the
Springfield and Branson aerodromes.

Easterly winds tonight will slowly veer around to the southwest by
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 292358
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
658 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

After a lull in the precipitation this afternoon expect showers
and thunderstorms to overspread the region from late this
afternoon into this evening and overnight. Convection across the
central and southern Plains will continue to increase and spread
east and northeast as a shortwave trough lifts northeast. In
addition a surface warm front will lift north from the Red River
Valley as surface cyclogenesis takes place over the Plains.
Strengthening synoptic scale lift within increasingly diffluent
flow aloft will support widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms tonight.

The potential for severe storms is conditional based on the
degree of instability that develops. Models suggest most unstable
CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG nosing into extreme southeastern Kansas
and far southwestern Missouri as the evening progresses while the
low levels continue to moisten. Given the strong lift and deep
layer shear up to 50 kts strong if not locally severe convection is
not out of the question.

Expect tonight`s convection to push off to the east late tonight
and early Saturday as the shortwave swings northeast.

The primary upper level low will migrate eastward into the central
Plains Saturday while an associated cold front pushes east into
the Ozarks during the day. Forcing along this front coupled with
ample instability and deep layer shear will support the potential
for strong to severe storms mainly east of highway 65 during the
afternoon into the early evening. However deep mean layer
moisture looks to decrease during the day as a mid level dry slot
moses eastward. This could limit the development or least coverage
of convection Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An extended period of relatively quiet weather will unfold as we
head into next week. Variable cloud cover and perhaps a few light
showers may linger Sunday and Monday as another system tracks to
our south. Otherwise models prog the evolution of a more
northwesterly flow aloft as the week progresses. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A band of showers and thunderstorms will push across the region
tonight bringing MVFR and localized IFR conditions. Even between
thunderstorms, patches of drizzle and fog will continue to reduce
visibility. Brisk easterly to southeasterly surface winds will
also persist with gusts over 25 knots around Springfield. Low
level wind shear conditions are also expected.

Prevailing IFR conditions are then expected from the predawn hours
into early Saturday morning before flight conditions gradually
begin to improve. There is a limited chance that thunderstorms
could redevelop in the afternoon around Springfield and Branson as
a front moves through the area.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann





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