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000
FXUS63 KSGF 311654
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

North winds are already beginning to increase this morning across the
region, as the coldest airmass of the season so far starts to move
south into the area.  Temperatures will continue to fall through the
remainder of the morning.  By afternoon, some locations may see enough sun
to (temporarily) halt the fall, or perhaps even warm a degree or
two, though anything above the mid 40s would be quite optimistic.
For most of the area, daily highs have already been met.

As cloud cover clears and the core of the Canadian surface high
settles south into the region, expect temperatures to absolutely
tank this evening.  Readings should quickly fall into the 30s by 7
or 8 PM, and fall into the upper 20s between 10 and midnight.  Low
temperatures will bottom out early Saturday morning into the low to
mid 20s.  It is important to note that in some localized areas,
particularly protected valleys, morning low temps in the teens are
entirely possible, if not probable.

Needless to say, this will end the growing season across the area in
one fell swoop. The Freeze Warning will continue unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

As the surface high begins to move south and east of the area, winds
will become southerly on Saturday, allowing temperatures to recover
into the upper 40s and low 50s.  A continued warming trend is then
expected for Sunday, with highs ranging from the low 50s over the
eastern Ozarks to around 60 across southeastern Kansas.

Gusty southwest winds are then expected for much of Monday as the
next storm system of interest approaches. Widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms associated with a slow moving front will move into the
area late Monday, with rain continuing for much of the day on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This system will be able to tap into
some subtropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which will
contribute to a healthy rainfall across the area.  Current
indications are for a widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain by the time
precipitation comes to an end Wednesday morning.

Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for the tail end of the
extended forecast, with another system perhaps approaching for late
in the workweek and/or next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A large amplitude ridge was over the high Plains and allowing for
a Canadian air mass to plunge into the area today/tonight. Stratus
was just about through the entire CWA and should be by the onset
of the 18z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the period as
this cold and dry air from Canada settles into the area tonight.
The cold air advection and gusty winds will persist through the
daylight hours, but should drop off by or shortly after sunset
with very light wind expected after midnight tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 512 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 311141 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

North winds are already beginning to increase this morning across the
region, as the coldest airmass of the season so far starts to move
south into the area.  Temperatures will continue to fall through the
remainder of the morning.  By afternoon, some locations may see enough sun
to (temporarily) halt the fall, or perhaps even warm a degree or
two, though anything above the mid 40s would be quite optimistic.
For most of the area, daily highs have already been met.

As cloud cover clears and the core of the Canadian surface high
settles south into the region, expect temperatures to absolutely
tank this evening.  Readings should quickly fall into the 30s by 7
or 8 PM, and fall into the upper 20s between 10 and midnight.  Low
temperatures will bottom out early Saturday morning into the low to
mid 20s.  It is important to note that in some localized areas,
particularly protected valleys, morning low temps in the teens are
entirely possible, if not probable.

Needless to say, this will end the growing season across the area in
one fell swoop. The Freeze Warning will continue unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

As the surface high begins to move south and east of the area, winds
will become southerly on Saturday, allowing temperatures to recover
into the upper 40s and low 50s.  A continued warming trend is then
expected for Sunday, with highs ranging from the low 50s over the
eastern Ozarks to around 60 across southeastern Kansas.

Gusty southwest winds are then expected for much of Monday as the
next storm system of interest approaches. Widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms associated with a slow moving front will move into the
area late Monday, with rain continuing for much of the day on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This system will be able to tap into
some subtropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which will
contribute to a healthy rainfall across the area.  Current
indications are for a widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain by the time
precipitation comes to an end Wednesday morning.

Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for the tail end of the
extended forecast, with another system perhaps approaching for late
in the workweek and/or next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Strong cold front is now well south of the area. North winds will
be brisk and gusty, especially this morning into early this
afternoon, and slacken heading into the mid/late afternoon hours.
Band of stratus will bring a brief period of high end MVFR at SGF
and BBG this morning, though this cloud deck should quickly sweep
through the area over the next few hours. Otherwise VFR conditions
will be the rule as strong surface high pressure builds into the
area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 512 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan
CLIMATE...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 311013
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Addition of Climate Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

North winds are already beginning to increase this morning across the
region, as the coldest airmass of the season so far starts to move
south into the area.  Temperatures will continue to fall through the
remainder of the morning.  By afternoon, some locations may see enough sun
to (temporarily) halt the fall, or perhaps even warm a degree or
two, though anything above the mid 40s would be quite optimistic.
For most of the area, daily highs have already been met.

As cloud cover clears and the core of the Canadian surface high
settles south into the region, expect temperatures to absolutely
tank this evening.  Readings should quickly fall into the 30s by 7
or 8 PM, and fall into the upper 20s between 10 and midnight.  Low
temperatures will bottom out early Saturday morning into the low to
mid 20s.  It is important to note that in some localized areas,
particularly protected valleys, morning low temps in the teens are
entirely possible, if not probable.

Needless to say, this will end the growing season across the area in
one fell swoop. The Freeze Warning will continue unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

As the surface high begins to move south and east of the area, winds
will become southerly on Saturday, allowing temperatures to recover
into the upper 40s and low 50s.  A continued warming trend is then
expected for Sunday, with highs ranging from the low 50s over the
eastern Ozarks to around 60 across southeastern Kansas.

Gusty southwest winds are then expected for much of Monday as the
next storm system of interest approaches. Widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms associated with a slow moving front will move into the
area late Monday, with rain continuing for much of the day on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This system will be able to tap into
some subtropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which will
contribute to a healthy rainfall across the area.  Current
indications are for a widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain by the time
precipitation comes to an end Wednesday morning.

Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for the tail end of the
extended forecast, with another system perhaps approaching for late
in the workweek and/or next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 512 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster
CLIMATE...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 310740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

North winds are already beginning to increase this morning across the
region, as the coldest airmass of the season so far starts to move
south into the area.  Temperatures will continue to fall through the
remainder of the morning.  By afternoon, some locations may see enough sun
to (temporarily) halt the fall, or perhaps even warm a degree or
two, though anything above the mid 40s would be quite optimistic.
For most of the area, daily highs have already been met.

As cloud cover clears and the core of the Canadian surface high
settles south into the region, expect temperatures to absolutely
tank this evening.  Readings should quickly fall into the 30s by 7
or 8 PM, and fall into the upper 20s between 10 and midnight.  Low
temperatures will bottom out early Saturday morning into the low to
mid 20s.  It is important to note that in some localized areas,
particularly protected valleys, morning low temps in the teens are
entirely possible, if not probable.

Needless to say, this will end the growing season across the area in
one fell swoop. The Freeze Warning will continue unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

As the surface high begins to move south and east of the area, winds
will become southerly on Saturday, allowing temperatures to recover
into the upper 40s and low 50s.  A continued warming trend is then
expected for Sunday, with highs ranging from the low 50s over the
eastern Ozarks to around 60 across southeastern Kansas.

Gusty southwest winds are then expected for much of Monday as the
next storm system of interest approaches. Widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms associated with a slow moving front will move into the
area late Monday, with rain continuing for much of the day on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This system will be able to tap into
some subtropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which will
contribute to a healthy rainfall across the area.  Current
indications are for a widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain by the time
precipitation comes to an end Wednesday morning.


Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for the tail end of the
extended forecast, with another system perhaps approaching for late
in the workweek and/or next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 310419
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1119 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 310419
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1119 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 302333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301929
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...FREEZE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Shortwave was pushing through the area this morning with scattered
showers/isolated thunder pushing through and was now along and
south of the interstate 44 corridor. These showers were occurring
from some mid level cloud cover and flight conditions have
remained in VFR. Winds behind the shortwave will shift around to
the southwest and then west during the afternoon/evening with some
gusty winds expected and the cloud cover should clear. During the
evening and overnight, winds will become out of the northwest. Low
level wind shear will occur overnight as strong cold air advection
takes place across the area with a strong Canadian high pressure
system begins to build into the area. Should remain in VFR
conditions through the period. Winds will begin to mix to the
ground during the daytime Friday with gusts up to 25 kts expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301635
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A large area of surface high pressure extended from the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the predawn hours.
This high resulted in another chilly night across the eastern
Ozarks with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s. Areas of
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas were 10-15 degrees warmer
as southerly winds increased behind that departing high. Skies
remained clear for most of the night with high clouds just
beginning to increase across central Missouri ahead of an
approaching short wave trough which was located across the Corn
Belt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

That trough will dig southeast and pass across northern Missouri
this afternoon. Despite limited moisture with this trough,
models continue to indicate an impressive amount of lift ahead of
this wave. Good isentropic lift in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere will become juxtaposed with strong upper level lift
as our region becomes situated within the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. Models also continue to advertise steep
mid-level lapse rates with the NAM indicating 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. With at least marginal instability and plenty of lift
around, we have decided to include a mention of thunder.
Interestingly, increasingly cold mid levels along with initially
dry low levels may lead to graupel potential with some of the
"stronger" updrafts. Temperatures today will be somewhat tricky
given increasing clouds but rather warm 925/850 mb temperatures
ahead of that wave. We have gone fairly close to a MAV/MET blend
which puts most locations well into the 60s with a few low 70s
even possible back towards I-49. One other item to mention today
will be the passage of a cold front this afternoon as surface low
pressure tracks southeast into eastern Missouri. While cold air
advection will initially be lacking behind the front, a period of
brisk west and then northwest winds can be expected.

Any remaining showers will quickly end across the eastern Ozarks
this evening. We will see a period of clearing skies with
lighter northwest winds. A secondary upper level wave will then
quickly move southeast across the region late tonight. This will
lead to another increase in clouds. It is not out of the question
that we could see a patch of drizzle around...especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, northerly surface winds will begin to
increase late tonight resulting in increasing cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday then looks downright blustery as brisk northerly winds
continue to usher in a cold Canadian air mass. We should see
some morning cloud cover with an outside shot a patchy drizzle.
Skies should clear quickly but the sun will do very little to
overcome the cold air advection. We have continued the trend of
lowering expected highs on Friday as 850 mb temperatures plunge
below zero Celsius. Most areas will struggle to get out of the
middle 40s.

Surface high pressure will then nose down into the Missouri Ozarks
for Friday night which will set the stage for the end of the
growing season. Models have not backed off on the strength of the
high with a consensus somewhere in the 1032-1034 mb range. With
dew points expected to fall into the upper teens, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the middle 20s over most areas...with
lower 20s a distinct possibility in some locations. A few
locations may actually approach record lows Saturday morning. See
the Climate section below for more details. We have gone ahead and
upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for this time period
given such high confidence in a hard freeze.

Temperatures on Saturday will then remain chilly with many areas
still not reaching the 50 degree mark. Areas out towards I-49
may get there if winds can come around to the southeast by
afternoon. Another frost or freeze will then be possible Saturday
night across the eastern Ozarks as a surface ridge axis is slow to
clear that region. It may not matter much by then given the high
confidence that the growing season will be over.

Sunday will then be a transition day as an upper level ridge
quickly moves east across the Ozarks. Temperatures will rebound
back into the 50s over all areas with southerly winds increasing.

That ridge will then quickly be replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft from Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to
depict a positively tilted long wave trough setting up from the
northern Plains into the Desert Southwest early next week. Models
also continue to show a developing baroclinic zone from the
southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This spells a good
chance for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from Monday into at
least Tuesday.

Where models are struggling is with the overall fate of that long
wave trough. Most models are showing the energy splitting with a
major piece dropping south into northern Mexico. The remaining
energy and an upper level trough axis are then forecast to slide
southeast into our region sometime in the later Tuesday or
Wednesday time period. The timing and structure of that trough
will be key in driving that baroclinic zone through our area and
eventually ending the threat for rain. If the 00 UTC ECMWF is
correct, the rain threat may not end until later Wednesday. On
the other hand, the GFS has the front clearing the area Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures during the early and middle portion of next week
should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Shortwave was pushing through the area this morning with scattered
showers/isolated thunder pushing through and was now along and
south of the interstate 44 corridor. These showers were occurring
from some mid level cloud cover and flight conditions have
remained in VFR. Winds behind the shortwave will shift around to
the southwest and then west during the afternoon/evening with some
gusty winds expected and the cloud cover should clear. During the
evening and overnight, winds will become out of the northwest. Low
level wind shear will occur overnight as strong cold air advection
takes place across the area with a strong Canadian high pressure
system begins to build into the area. Should remain in VFR
conditions through the period. Winds will begin to mix to the
ground during the daytime Friday with gusts up to 25 kts expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301635
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A large area of surface high pressure extended from the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the predawn hours.
This high resulted in another chilly night across the eastern
Ozarks with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s. Areas of
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas were 10-15 degrees warmer
as southerly winds increased behind that departing high. Skies
remained clear for most of the night with high clouds just
beginning to increase across central Missouri ahead of an
approaching short wave trough which was located across the Corn
Belt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

That trough will dig southeast and pass across northern Missouri
this afternoon. Despite limited moisture with this trough,
models continue to indicate an impressive amount of lift ahead of
this wave. Good isentropic lift in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere will become juxtaposed with strong upper level lift
as our region becomes situated within the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. Models also continue to advertise steep
mid-level lapse rates with the NAM indicating 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. With at least marginal instability and plenty of lift
around, we have decided to include a mention of thunder.
Interestingly, increasingly cold mid levels along with initially
dry low levels may lead to graupel potential with some of the
"stronger" updrafts. Temperatures today will be somewhat tricky
given increasing clouds but rather warm 925/850 mb temperatures
ahead of that wave. We have gone fairly close to a MAV/MET blend
which puts most locations well into the 60s with a few low 70s
even possible back towards I-49. One other item to mention today
will be the passage of a cold front this afternoon as surface low
pressure tracks southeast into eastern Missouri. While cold air
advection will initially be lacking behind the front, a period of
brisk west and then northwest winds can be expected.

Any remaining showers will quickly end across the eastern Ozarks
this evening. We will see a period of clearing skies with
lighter northwest winds. A secondary upper level wave will then
quickly move southeast across the region late tonight. This will
lead to another increase in clouds. It is not out of the question
that we could see a patch of drizzle around...especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, northerly surface winds will begin to
increase late tonight resulting in increasing cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday then looks downright blustery as brisk northerly winds
continue to usher in a cold Canadian air mass. We should see
some morning cloud cover with an outside shot a patchy drizzle.
Skies should clear quickly but the sun will do very little to
overcome the cold air advection. We have continued the trend of
lowering expected highs on Friday as 850 mb temperatures plunge
below zero Celsius. Most areas will struggle to get out of the
middle 40s.

Surface high pressure will then nose down into the Missouri Ozarks
for Friday night which will set the stage for the end of the
growing season. Models have not backed off on the strength of the
high with a consensus somewhere in the 1032-1034 mb range. With
dew points expected to fall into the upper teens, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the middle 20s over most areas...with
lower 20s a distinct possibility in some locations. A few
locations may actually approach record lows Saturday morning. See
the Climate section below for more details. We have gone ahead and
upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for this time period
given such high confidence in a hard freeze.

Temperatures on Saturday will then remain chilly with many areas
still not reaching the 50 degree mark. Areas out towards I-49
may get there if winds can come around to the southeast by
afternoon. Another frost or freeze will then be possible Saturday
night across the eastern Ozarks as a surface ridge axis is slow to
clear that region. It may not matter much by then given the high
confidence that the growing season will be over.

Sunday will then be a transition day as an upper level ridge
quickly moves east across the Ozarks. Temperatures will rebound
back into the 50s over all areas with southerly winds increasing.

That ridge will then quickly be replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft from Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to
depict a positively tilted long wave trough setting up from the
northern Plains into the Desert Southwest early next week. Models
also continue to show a developing baroclinic zone from the
southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This spells a good
chance for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from Monday into at
least Tuesday.

Where models are struggling is with the overall fate of that long
wave trough. Most models are showing the energy splitting with a
major piece dropping south into northern Mexico. The remaining
energy and an upper level trough axis are then forecast to slide
southeast into our region sometime in the later Tuesday or
Wednesday time period. The timing and structure of that trough
will be key in driving that baroclinic zone through our area and
eventually ending the threat for rain. If the 00 UTC ECMWF is
correct, the rain threat may not end until later Wednesday. On
the other hand, the GFS has the front clearing the area Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures during the early and middle portion of next week
should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Shortwave was pushing through the area this morning with scattered
showers/isolated thunder pushing through and was now along and
south of the interstate 44 corridor. These showers were occurring
from some mid level cloud cover and flight conditions have
remained in VFR. Winds behind the shortwave will shift around to
the southwest and then west during the afternoon/evening with some
gusty winds expected and the cloud cover should clear. During the
evening and overnight, winds will become out of the northwest. Low
level wind shear will occur overnight as strong cold air advection
takes place across the area with a strong Canadian high pressure
system begins to build into the area. Should remain in VFR
conditions through the period. Winds will begin to mix to the
ground during the daytime Friday with gusts up to 25 kts expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301107
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A large area of surface high pressure extended from the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the predawn hours.
This high resulted in another chilly night across the eastern
Ozarks with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s. Areas of
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas were 10-15 degrees warmer
as southerly winds increased behind that departing high. Skies
remained clear for most of the night with high clouds just
beginning to increase across central Missouri ahead of an
approaching short wave trough which was located across the Corn
Belt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

That trough will dig southeast and pass across northern Missouri
this afternoon. Despite limited moisture with this trough,
models continue to indicate an impressive amount of lift ahead of
this wave. Good isentropic lift in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere will become juxtaposed with strong upper level lift
as our region becomes situated within the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. Models also continue to advertise steep
mid-level lapse rates with the NAM indicating 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. With at least marginal instability and plenty of lift
around, we have decided to include a mention of thunder.
Interestingly, increasingly cold mid levels along with initially
dry low levels may lead to graupel potential with some of the
"stronger" updrafts. Temperatures today will be somewhat tricky
given increasing clouds but rather warm 925/850 mb temperatures
ahead of that wave. We have gone fairly close to a MAV/MET blend
which puts most locations well into the 60s with a few low 70s
even possible back towards I-49. One other item to mention today
will be the passage of a cold front this afternoon as surface low
pressure tracks southeast into eastern Missouri. While cold air
advection will initially be lacking behind the front, a period of
brisk west and then northwest winds can be expected.

Any remaining showers will quickly end across the eastern Ozarks
this evening. We will see a period of clearing skies with
lighter northwest winds. A secondary upper level wave will then
quickly move southeast across the region late tonight. This will
lead to another increase in clouds. It is not out of the question
that we could see a patch of drizzle around...especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, northerly surface winds will begin to
increase late tonight resulting in increasing cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday then looks downright blustery as brisk northerly winds
continue to usher in a cold Canadian air mass. We should see
some morning cloud cover with an outside shot a patchy drizzle.
Skies should clear quickly but the sun will do very little to
overcome the cold air advection. We have continued the trend of
lowering expected highs on Friday as 850 mb temperatures plunge
below zero Celsius. Most areas will struggle to get out of the
middle 40s.

Surface high pressure will then nose down into the Missouri Ozarks
for Friday night which will set the stage for the end of the
growing season. Models have not backed off on the strength of the
high with a consensus somewhere in the 1032-1034 mb range. With
dew points expected to fall into the upper teens, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the middle 20s over most areas...with
lower 20s a distinct possibility in some locations. A few
locations may actually approach record lows Saturday morning. See
the Climate section below for more details. We have gone ahead and
upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for this time period
given such high confidence in a hard freeze.

Temperatures on Saturday will then remain chilly with many areas
still not reaching the 50 degree mark. Areas out towards I-49
may get there if winds can come around to the southeast by
afternoon. Another frost or freeze will then be possible Saturday
night across the eastern Ozarks as a surface ridge axis is slow to
clear that region. It may not matter much by then given the high
confidence that the growing season will be over.

Sunday will then be a transition day as an upper level ridge
quickly moves east across the Ozarks. Temperatures will rebound
back into the 50s over all areas with southerly winds increasing.

That ridge will then quickly be replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft from Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to
depict a positively tilted long wave trough setting up from the
northern Plains into the Desert Southwest early next week. Models
also continue to show a developing baroclinic zone from the
southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This spells a good
chance for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from Monday into at
least Tuesday.

Where models are struggling is with the overall fate of that long
wave trough. Most models are showing the energy splitting with a
major piece dropping south into northern Mexico. The remaining
energy and an upper level trough axis are then forecast to slide
southeast into our region sometime in the later Tuesday or
Wednesday time period. The timing and structure of that trough
will be key in driving that baroclinic zone through our area and
eventually ending the threat for rain. If the 00 UTC ECMWF is
correct, the rain threat may not end until later Wednesday. On
the other hand, the GFS has the front clearing the area Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures during the early and middle portion of next week
should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, though
winds will be a concern. A short period of LLWS is expected this
morning at JLN, before daytime mixing results in widespread gusty
southwest to west winds at all sites through the day today. Winds
will become northerly tonight behind a cold front, and while
speeds will not be as high as during the day today, a steady
breeze will continue. LLWS will then occur at all sites early
tomorrow morning. Some stratus will also be possible tomorrow
morning, though for now it appears that cloud bases will be high
enough to remain within VFR range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 300832
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A large area of surface high pressure extended from the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the predawn hours.
This high resulted in another chilly night across the eastern
Ozarks with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s. Areas of
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas were 10-15 degrees warmer
as southerly winds increased behind that departing high. Skies
remained clear for most of the night with high clouds just
beginning to increase across central Missouri ahead of an
approaching short wave trough which was located across the Corn
Belt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

That trough will dig southeast and pass across northern Missouri
this afternoon. Despite limited moisture with this trough,
models continue to indicate an impressive amount of lift ahead of
this wave. Good isentropic lift in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere will become juxtaposed with strong upper level lift
as our region becomes situated within the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. Models also continue to advertise steep
mid-level lapse rates with the NAM indicating 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. With at least marginal instability and plenty of lift
around, we have decided to include a mention of thunder.
Interestingly, increasingly cold mid levels along with initially
dry low levels may lead to graupel potential with some of the
"stronger" updrafts. Temperatures today will be somewhat tricky
given increasing clouds but rather warm 925/850 mb temperatures
ahead of that wave. We have gone fairly close to a MAV/MET blend
which puts most locations well into the 60s with a few low 70s
even possible back towards I-49. One other item to mention today
will be the passage of a cold front this afternoon as surface low
pressure tracks southeast into eastern Missouri. While cold air
advection will initially be lacking behind the front, a period of
brisk west and then northwest winds can be expected.

Any remaining showers will quickly end across the eastern Ozarks
this evening. We will see a period of clearing skies with
lighter northwest winds. A secondary upper level wave will then
quickly move southeast across the region late tonight. This will
lead to another increase in clouds. It is not out of the question
that we could see a patch of drizzle around...especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, northerly surface winds will begin to
increase late tonight resulting in increasing cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday then looks downright blustery as brisk northerly winds
continue to usher in a cold Canadian air mass. We should see
some morning cloud cover with an outside shot a patchy drizzle.
Skies should clear quickly but the sun will do very little to
overcome the cold air advection. We have continued the trend of
lowering expected highs on Friday as 850 mb temperatures plunge
below zero Celsius. Most areas will struggle to get out of the
middle 40s.

Surface high pressure will then nose down into the Missouri Ozarks
for Friday night which will set the stage for the end of the
growing season. Models have not backed off on the strength of the
high with a consensus somewhere in the 1032-1034 mb range. With
dew points expected to fall into the upper teens, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the middle 20s over most areas...with
lower 20s a distinct possibility in some locations. A few
locations may actually approach record lows Saturday morning. See
the Climate section below for more details. We have gone ahead and
upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for this time period
given such high confidence in a hard freeze.

Temperatures on Saturday will then remain chilly with many areas
still not reaching the 50 degree mark. Areas out towards I-49
may get there if winds can come around to the southeast by
afternoon. Another frost or freeze will then be possible Saturday
night across the eastern Ozarks as a surface ridge axis is slow to
clear that region. It may not matter much by then given the high
confidence that the growing season will be over.

Sunday will then be a transition day as an upper level ridge
quickly moves east across the Ozarks. Temperatures will rebound
back into the 50s over all areas with southerly winds increasing.

That ridge will then quickly be replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft from Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to
depict a positively tilted long wave trough setting up from the
northern Plains into the Desert Southwest early next week. Models
also continue to show a developing baroclinic zone from the
southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This spells a good
chance for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from Monday into at
least Tuesday.

Where models are struggling is with the overall fate of that long
wave trough. Most models are showing the energy splitting with a
major piece dropping south into northern Mexico. The remaining
energy and an upper level trough axis are then forecast to slide
southeast into our region sometime in the later Tuesday or
Wednesday time period. The timing and structure of that trough
will be key in driving that baroclinic zone through our area and
eventually ending the threat for rain. If the 00 UTC ECMWF is
correct, the rain threat may not end until later Wednesday. On
the other hand, the GFS has the front clearing the area Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures during the early and middle portion of next week
should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight into
Thursday. Surface high pressure will shift east of the area
overnight allowing winds to shift to the south by morning.

A dry cold front will approach from the west Thursday resulting
increasing southwesterly winds at the surface. Winds will shift to
the west and northwest during the afternoon following the frontal
passage.

Expect broken mid to upper level deck of clouds on Thursday and
perhaps a few sprinkles.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster
CLIMATE...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure was currently making its way southeastward
through the central plains at mid afternoon.  This high is expected
to settle over the area tonight bringing clear skies and light winds
allowing for some good radiational cooling.  Am concerned that with
lows falling into the mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks...could see
some patchy frost in low-lying areas.

An upper level ridge begins to build over the Rockies on Thursday
while a Pacific impulse moves over the ridge and begins to drop
southeastward.  With only limited moisture with which to work...will
only mention a slight chance of measurable rain over central
Missouri on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the ridge continues to build on Friday...a short wave will drop
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region bringing with it a shot of
cold Canadian air. Model runs over the last few days have tended to
sharpen up the ridge over the Rockies which in turn has tended to
pull the colder air further west.  At present...this air mass looks
capable of ending the growing season across the Ozarks on Saturday
morning.  As such...will issue a freeze watch for the area as lows
Saturday could easily reach the mid 20s.

The upper level ridge then moves over the area during the weekend
which will moderate temperatures back to more seasonable levels.
By Monday...a long wave trough and associated surface front will
begin to make their way eastward out of the Rockies. With a
surface high situated over the southeastern states...will begin to
see a return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain chances will begin to increase Sunday night into Monday.  With
the surface front roughly parallel to the upper level flow...the
cold front will be slow to transit the area.  Therefore...we could
see a period of off and on rainfall through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures during this period are expected to be near seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight into
Thursday. Surface high pressure will shift east of the area
overnight allowing winds to shift to the south by morning.

A dry cold front will approach from the west Thursday resulting
increasing southwesterly winds at the surface. Winds will shift to
the west and northwest during the afternoon following the frontal
passage.

Expect broken mid to upper level deck of clouds on Thursday and
perhaps a few sprinkles.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292324
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure was currently making its way southeastward
through the central plains at mid afternoon.  This high is expected
to settle over the area tonight bringing clear skies and light winds
allowing for some good radiational cooling.  Am concerned that with
lows falling into the mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks...could see
some patchy frost in low-lying areas.

An upper level ridge begins to build over the Rockies on Thursday
while a Pacific impulse moves over the ridge and begins to drop
southeastward.  With only limited moisture with which to work...will
only mention a slight chance of measurable rain over central
Missouri on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the ridge continues to build on Friday...a short wave will drop
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region bringing with it a shot of
cold Canadian air. Model runs over the last few days have tended to
sharpen up the ridge over the Rockies which in turn has tended to
pull the colder air further west.  At present...this air mass looks
capable of ending the growing season across the Ozarks on Saturday
morning.  As such...will issue a freeze watch for the area as lows
Saturday could easily reach the mid 20s.

The upper level ridge then moves over the area during the weekend
which will moderate temperatures back to more seasonable levels.
By Monday...a long wave trough and associated surface front will
begin to make their way eastward out of the Rockies. With a
surface high situated over the southeastern states...will begin to
see a return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain chances will begin to increase Sunday night into Monday.  With
the surface front roughly parallel to the upper level flow...the
cold front will be slow to transit the area.  Therefore...we could
see a period of off and on rainfall through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures during this period are expected to be near seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight into
Thursday. Surface high pressure will shift east of the area
overnight allowing winds to shift to the south by morning.

A primarily dry cold front will approach from the west Thursday
resulting increasing southwesterly winds at the surface. Winds
will shift to the west and northwest during the afternoon
following the frontal passage.

Expect broken mid to upper level of clouds on Thursday and perhaps
a few sprinkles.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292006
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure was currently making its way southeastward
through the central plains at mid afternoon.  This high is expected
to settle over the area tonight bringing clear skies and light winds
allowing for some good radiational cooling.  Am concerned that with
lows falling into the mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks...could see
some patchy frost in low-lying areas.

An upper level ridge begins to build over the Rockies on Thursday
while a Pacific impulse moves over the ridge and begins to drop
southeastward.  With only limited moisture with which to work...will
only mention a slight chance of measurable rain over central
Missouri on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the ridge continues to build on Friday...a short wave will drop
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region bringing with it a shot of
cold Canadian air. Model runs over the last few days have tended to
sharpen up the ridge over the Rockies which in turn has tended to
pull the colder air further west.  At present...this air mass looks
capable of ending the growing season across the Ozarks on Saturday
morning.  As such...will issue a freeze watch for the area as lows
Saturday could easily reach the mid 20s.

The upper level ridge then moves over the area during the weekend
which will moderate temperatures back to more seasonable levels.
By Monday...a long wave trough and associated surface front will
begin to make their way eastward out of the Rockies. With a
surface high situated over the southeastern states...will begin to
see a return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain chances will begin to increase Sunday night into Monday.  With
the surface front roughly parallel to the upper level flow...the
cold front will be slow to transit the area.  Therefore...we could
see a period of off and on rainfall through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures during this period are expected to be near seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 943 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through midday Thursday. Winds will be
light and variable through this evening...then switching to a
light southerly by Thursday morning. Skies will be mostly clear
with high and mid level cloudiness moving in by Thursday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291603
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As of 3 AM...a large area of surface high pressure was situated
from  southern Nebraska into northern Oklahoma. Clear skies and
light winds prevailed across the region with early morning
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. There
is likely some patchy frost out there in protected valleys.

That high pressure will slowly slide southeast today resulting in
sunny skies and light winds. High temperatures will range from
near 60 degrees around Lake of the Ozarks to the upper 60s over far
southwestern Missouri. These temperatures are just a few degrees
below normal for this time of year.

The axis of that high will then slide slowly southeast across the
Missouri Ozarks tonight. Our confidence has increased in patchy
frost potential overnight across the eastern Ozarks given light
winds and expected low temperatures in the mid 30s. We will still
have to watch for late night increasing clouds as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, areas back
towards I-49 will see slightly warmer temperatures as light
southerly winds kick in behind that ridge axis. Thus, there are no
frost concerns at this time across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

That upper level disturbance will dig southeast across
northeastern Missouri during the day on Thursday. Moisture will
be very limited with this disturbance. What will not be limited is
lift. The digging nature of this system along with our area
becoming positioned within the left exit region of an upper
level jet streak will really boost mid/upper level lift.
Additionally, strong isentropic upglide will be present in the mid
levels along with marginal amounts of instability. We therefore
expect isolated to widely scattered shower activity with the
greatest potential for showers along and east of the U.S. 65
corridor. If the NAM is correct in advertising 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE, we could even see a rogue lightning strike or two. We have
opted against a mention of thunder for now but will pass this
concern onto future shifts.

That passing upper level disturbance will also have a surface cold
front associated with it. The air mass behind this front will
mean business as models bring a 1036-1038 mb surface high into
North Dakota Thursday night. Strong cold air advection will ramp
up across our neck of the woods from later Thursday night through
Friday as that surface high slides into the western Great Lakes
and Corn Belt. Friday looks downright blustery with brisk north
winds and increasing confidence that temperatures may not warm out
of the 40s.

While we are still several days out, almost all models are
painting a nearly perfect setup for an end to the growing season
Friday night. A surface ridge axis is forecast to extend from the
Great Lakes right through the heart of the Missouri Ozarks by 12
UTC on Saturday. With the parent surface high still progged to be
in the 1032-1034 mb range, temperatures should easily fall into
the 20s. We have lowered expected lows Friday night into the
middle 20s nearly area wide...which is very close to the 00 UTC
MEX numbers. If models continue to support this trend, a Freeze
Watch and eventual Freeze Warning almost seem inevitable.

Saturday will then be a chilly day across the region with highs
once again struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. We could then
see another frost or freeze Saturday night across the eastern
Ozarks depending on the position of that surface ridge axis. An
upper level ridge axis will then slide east across the region on
Sunday resulting in a dry day and temperatures rebounding into the
50s.

That ridge will be quick to move east of the area by Monday with
upper level southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Global
models continue to depict a positively tilted long wave trough
initially setting up from the northern Plains into the Desert
Southwest Monday and Tuesday. As this happens, models strengthen a
baroclinic zone from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.
Given the positive tilt of the trough, it is quite possible that
this baroclinic zone is slow to clear the area. We are therefore
looking at the potential for widespread precipitation for at least
a couple of days early next week...if not even longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 943 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through midday Thursday. Winds will be
light and variable through this evening...then switching to a
light southerly by Thursday morning. Skies will be mostly clear
with high and mid level cloudiness moving in by Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291137
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As of 3 AM...a large area of surface high pressure was situated
from  southern Nebraska into northern Oklahoma. Clear skies and
light winds prevailed across the region with early morning
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. There
is likely some patchy frost out there in protected valleys.

That high pressure will slowly slide southeast today resulting in
sunny skies and light winds. High temperatures will range from
near 60 degrees around Lake of the Ozarks to the upper 60s over far
southwestern Missouri. These temperatures are just a few degrees
below normal for this time of year.

The axis of that high will then slide slowly southeast across the
Missouri Ozarks tonight. Our confidence has increased in patchy
frost potential overnight across the eastern Ozarks given light
winds and expected low temperatures in the mid 30s. We will still
have to watch for late night increasing clouds as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, areas back
towards I-49 will see slightly warmer temperatures as light
southerly winds kick in behind that ridge axis. Thus, there are no
frost concerns at this time across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

That upper level disturbance will dig southeast across
northeastern Missouri during the day on Thursday. Moisture will
be very limited with this disturbance. What will not be limited is
lift. The digging nature of this system along with our area
becoming positioned within the left exit region of an upper
level jet streak will really boost mid/upper level lift.
Additionally, strong isentropic upglide will be present in the mid
levels along with marginal amounts of instability. We therefore
expect isolated to widely scattered shower activity with the
greatest potential for showers along and east of the U.S. 65
corridor. If the NAM is correct in advertising 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE, we could even see a rogue lightning strike or two. We have
opted against a mention of thunder for now but will pass this
concern onto future shifts.

That passing upper level disturbance will also have a surface cold
front associated with it. The air mass behind this front will
mean business as models bring a 1036-1038 mb surface high into
North Dakota Thursday night. Strong cold air advection will ramp
up across our neck of the woods from later Thursday night through
Friday as that surface high slides into the western Great Lakes
and Corn Belt. Friday looks downright blustery with brisk north
winds and increasing confidence that temperatures may not warm out
of the 40s.

While we are still several days out, almost all models are
painting a nearly perfect setup for an end to the growing season
Friday night. A surface ridge axis is forecast to extend from the
Great Lakes right through the heart of the Missouri Ozarks by 12
UTC on Saturday. With the parent surface high still progged to be
in the 1032-1034 mb range, temperatures should easily fall into
the 20s. We have lowered expected lows Friday night into the
middle 20s nearly area wide...which is very close to the 00 UTC
MEX numbers. If models continue to support this trend, a Freeze
Watch and eventual Freeze Warning almost seem inevitable.

Saturday will then be a chilly day across the region with highs
once again struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. We could then
see another frost or freeze Saturday night across the eastern
Ozarks depending on the position of that surface ridge axis. An
upper level ridge axis will then slide east across the region on
Sunday resulting in a dry day and temperatures rebounding into the
50s.

That ridge will be quick to move east of the area by Monday with
upper level southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Global
models continue to depict a positively tilted long wave trough
initially setting up from the northern Plains into the Desert
Southwest Monday and Tuesday. As this happens, models strengthen a
baroclinic zone from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.
Given the positive tilt of the trough, it is quite possible that
this baroclinic zone is slow to clear the area. We are therefore
looking at the potential for widespread precipitation for at least
a couple of days early next week...if not even longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

No aviation concerns are expected for the next 24 hours as high
pressure moves across the area. Winds will remain light with clear
skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290826
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...End to the Growing Season Increasingly Likely this Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As of 3 AM...a large area of surface high pressure was situated
from  southern Nebraska into northern Oklahoma. Clear skies and
light winds prevailed across the region with early morning
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. There
is likely some patchy frost out there in protected valleys.

That high pressure will slowly slide southeast today resulting in
sunny skies and light winds. High temperatures will range from
near 60 degrees around Lake of the Ozarks to the upper 60s over far
southwestern Missouri. These temperatures are just a few degrees
below normal for this time of year.

The axis of that high will then slide slowly southeast across the
Missouri Ozarks tonight. Our confidence has increased in patchy
frost potential overnight across the eastern Ozarks given light
winds and expected low temperatures in the mid 30s. We will still
have to watch for late night increasing clouds as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, areas back
towards I-49 will see slightly warmer temperatures as light
southerly winds kick in behind that ridge axis. Thus, there are no
frost concerns at this time across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

That upper level disturbance will dig southeast across
northeastern Missouri during the day on Thursday. Moisture will
be very limited with this disturbance. What will not be limited is
lift. The digging nature of this system along with our area
becoming positioned within the left exit region of an upper
level jet streak will really boost mid/upper level lift.
Additionally, strong isentropic upglide will be present in the mid
levels along with marginal amounts of instability. We therefore
expect isolated to widely scattered shower activity with the
greatest potential for showers along and east of the U.S. 65
corridor. If the NAM is correct in advertising 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE, we could even see a rogue lightning strike or two. We have
opted against a mention of thunder for now but will pass this
concern onto future shifts.

That passing upper level disturbance will also have a surface cold
front associated with it. The air mass behind this front will
mean business as models bring a 1036-1038 mb surface high into
North Dakota Thursday night. Strong cold air advection will ramp
up across our neck of the woods from later Thursday night through
Friday as that surface high slides into the western Great Lakes
and Corn Belt. Friday looks downright blustery with brisk north
winds and increasing confidence that temperatures may not warm out
of the 40s.

While we are still several days out, almost all models are
painting a nearly perfect setup for an end to the growing season
Friday night. A surface ridge axis is forecast to extend from the
Great Lakes right through the heart of the Missouri Ozarks by 12
UTC on Saturday. With the parent surface high still progged to be
in the 1032-1034 mb range, temperatures should easily fall into
the 20s. We have lowered expected lows Friday night into the
middle 20s nearly area wide...which is very close to the 00 UTC
MEX numbers. If models continue to support this trend, a Freeze
Watch and eventual Freeze Warning almost seem inevitable.

Saturday will then be a chilly day across the region with highs
once again struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. We could then
see another frost or freeze Saturday night across the eastern
Ozarks depending on the position of that surface ridge axis. An
upper level ridge axis will then slide east across the region on
Sunday resulting in a dry day and temperatures rebounding into the
50s.

That ridge will be quick to move east of the area by Monday with
upper level southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Global
models continue to depict a positively tilted long wave trough
initially setting up from the northern Plains into the Desert
Southwest Monday and Tuesday. As this happens, models strengthen a
baroclinic zone from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.
Given the positive tilt of the trough, it is quite possible that
this baroclinic zone is slow to clear the area. We are therefore
looking at the potential for widespread precipitation for at least
a couple of days early next week...if not even longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Surface high pressure will dominate our weather regime resulting
in a clear sky and light/variable winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290444 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Conditions today were quite normal for late October. Temperatures
warmed into the middle 60s under partly cloudy skies and light
breezes.

With a dry continental airmass in place, tonight`s temperatures
will trend much cooler than previous nights. Look for lows to
range from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. Temperatures should
remain too warm for any frost potential tonight. No precipitation
is expected.

Not much changes for Wednesday with highs in the 60s and full
sunshine. Temperatures could certainly fall into the upper 30s early
Thursday morning as clear skies and light winds occur over
portions of central and south central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Water Vapor currently shows a speed max approaching the Washington
coast line. This feature is forecasted to zip across the Ozarks
Region on Thursday, bringing a risk for some light rain. We think
some spots will receive measurable rain, therefore we added some
precipitation chances to the Thursday period.

This upper wave will force a decent shot of Canadian air across
much of the nation`s mid section. This airmass will be the coldest
air of the fall season, causing temperatures to drop into the 20
and low 30s early Saturday morning.

Based off of our latest analysis, areas north of Highway 60, and
east of Highway 65, will receive the greatest chances for a hard
freeze. We currently have lows falling into the middle 20s in
these locations, under clear skies and light winds.

Elsewhere on Saturday morning, either a light freeze or a heavy
frost is expected. Most locations have not experienced any frost
this season, therefore it will likely be a killing frost.

No precipitation is expected through the upcoming weekend with
temperatures only warming into the 50s both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons.

Finally, there has been medium range model consistency with the
return of showers and thunderstorms early next work week. A
positively structured long wave trough is expected to force a
large area of convection from Texas to the upper midwest. Given the
structure of this pattern, the Gulf of Mexico will finally open up
bringing sufficient moisture transport northward for widespread
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Surface high pressure will dominate our weather regime resulting
in a clear sky and light/variable winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290444 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Conditions today were quite normal for late October. Temperatures
warmed into the middle 60s under partly cloudy skies and light
breezes.

With a dry continental airmass in place, tonight`s temperatures
will trend much cooler than previous nights. Look for lows to
range from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. Temperatures should
remain too warm for any frost potential tonight. No precipitation
is expected.

Not much changes for Wednesday with highs in the 60s and full
sunshine. Temperatures could certainly fall into the upper 30s early
Thursday morning as clear skies and light winds occur over
portions of central and south central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Water Vapor currently shows a speed max approaching the Washington
coast line. This feature is forecasted to zip across the Ozarks
Region on Thursday, bringing a risk for some light rain. We think
some spots will receive measurable rain, therefore we added some
precipitation chances to the Thursday period.

This upper wave will force a decent shot of Canadian air across
much of the nation`s mid section. This airmass will be the coldest
air of the fall season, causing temperatures to drop into the 20
and low 30s early Saturday morning.

Based off of our latest analysis, areas north of Highway 60, and
east of Highway 65, will receive the greatest chances for a hard
freeze. We currently have lows falling into the middle 20s in
these locations, under clear skies and light winds.

Elsewhere on Saturday morning, either a light freeze or a heavy
frost is expected. Most locations have not experienced any frost
this season, therefore it will likely be a killing frost.

No precipitation is expected through the upcoming weekend with
temperatures only warming into the 50s both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons.

Finally, there has been medium range model consistency with the
return of showers and thunderstorms early next work week. A
positively structured long wave trough is expected to force a
large area of convection from Texas to the upper midwest. Given the
structure of this pattern, the Gulf of Mexico will finally open up
bringing sufficient moisture transport northward for widespread
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Surface high pressure will dominate our weather regime resulting
in a clear sky and light/variable winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 282241
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Conditions today were quite normal for late October. Temperatures
warmed into the middle 60s under partly cloudy skies and light
breezes.

With a dry continental airmass in place, tonight`s temperatures
will trend much cooler than previous nights. Look for lows to
range from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. Temperatures should
remain too warm for any frost potential tonight. No precipitation
is expected.

Not much changes for Wednesday with highs in the 60s and full
sunshine. Temperatures could certainly fall into the upper 30s early
Thursday morning as clear skies and light winds occur over
portions of central and south central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Water Vapor currently shows a speed max approaching the Washington
coast line. This feature is forecasted to zip across the Ozarks
Region on Thursday, bringing a risk for some light rain. We think
some spots will receive measurable rain, therefore we added some
precipitation chances to the Thursday period.

This upper wave will force a decent shot of Canadian air across
much of the nation`s mid section. This airmass will be the coldest
air of the fall season, causing temperatures to drop into the 20
and low 30s early Saturday morning.

Based off of our latest analysis, areas north of Highway 60, and
east of Highway 65, will receive the greatest chances for a hard
freeze. We currently have lows falling into the middle 20s in
these locations, under clear skies and light winds.

Elsewhere on Saturday morning, either a light freeze or a heavy
frost is expected. Most locations have not experienced any frost
this season, therefore it will likely be a killing frost.

No precipitation is expected through the upcoming weekend with
temperatures only warming into the 50s both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons.

Finally, there has been medium range model consistency with the
return of showers and thunderstorms early next work week. A
positively structured long wave trough is expected to force a
large area of convection from Texas to the upper midwest. Given the
structure of this pattern, the Gulf of Mexico will finally open up
bringing sufficient moisture transport northward for widespread
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are forecast over southwestern Missouri Airfields for
the duration of the TAF forecast period. A broad area of high
pressure centered over the Northern Plains will continue to push
southeastward over the area...bringing cooler weather and clear to
partly cloudy skies to the area into Wednesday Evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Colucci








000
FXUS63 KSGF 282000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Freeze or Heavy Frost Likely Saturday Morning...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Conditions today were quite normal for late October. Temperatures
warmed into the middle 60s under partly cloudy skies and light
breezes.

With a dry continental airmass in place, tonight`s temperatures
will trend much cooler than previous nights. Look for lows to
range from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. Temperatures should
remain too warm for any frost potential tonight. No precipitation
is expected.

Not much changes for Wednesday with highs in the 60s and full
sunshine. Temperatures could certainly fall into the upper 30s early
Thursday morning as clear skies and light winds occur over
portions of central and south central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Water Vapor currently shows a speed max approaching the Washington
coast line. This feature is forecasted to zip across the Ozarks
Region on Thursday, bringing a risk for some light rain. We think
some spots will receive measurable rain, therefore we added some
precipitation chances to the Thursday period.

This upper wave will force a decent shot of Canadian air across
much of the nation`s mid section. This airmass will be the coldest
air of the fall season, causing temperatures to drop into the 20
and low 30s early Saturday morning.

Based off of our latest analysis, areas north of Highway 60, and
east of Highway 65, will receive the greatest chances for a hard
freeze. We currently have lows falling into the middle 20s in
these locations, under clear skies and light winds.

Elsewhere on Saturday morning, either a light freeze or a heavy
frost is expected. Most locations have not experienced any frost
this season, therefore it will likely be a killing frost.

No precipitation is expected through the upcoming weekend with
temperatures only warming into the 50s both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons.

Finally, there has been medium range model consistency with the
return of showers and thunderstorms early next work week. A
positively structured long wave trough is expected to force a
large area of convection from Texas to the upper midwest. Given the
structure of this pattern, the Gulf of Mexico will finally open up
bringing sufficient moisture transport northward for widespread
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are forecast over southwestern Missouri Airfields for
the duration of the TAF forecast period. A broad area of high
pressure centered over the Northern Plains will continue to push
southeastward over the area...bringing cooler weather and clear to
partly cloudy skies to the area through Wednesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Colucci








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