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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251146
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A return to more typical summertime heat and humidity will commence
today, as a warm front lifts north across the region this morning.
This will result in much warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints,
especially across the northwestern portion of the CWA.  The
inherited Heat Advisory for far southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri will continue unchanged.

After a warm night tonight, the warmest day of the year so far
appears likely for Saturday, with temperatures well into the mid to
upper 90s area-wide.  Portions of the Osage Plains will flirt with
100 degrees during the afternoon hours.  The good news is that
daytime mixing looks to be deep enough to knock a couple of degrees
off of dewpoints during peak heating, though perhaps not enough to
preclude the need for another Heat Advisory for at least a portion
of the region.  For now, will run with a dry forecast for Saturday
afternoon and evening, though a few models are trying to break out
an isolated thunderstorm or two across central Missouri.  At this
point, though, it appears that capping should be strong enough to
keep PoPs rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

By Sunday, a strong shortwave will begin to dive southeast across
the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front south through the region.
Timing of the frontal passage looks to be Sunday afternoon and
evening, though some differences remain within the model suite.  A
few thunderstorms will be possible as the front passes, but the
threat at this time looks to be fairly isolated. Given the strength
of the front, an isolated stronger storm will also be possible
during this timeframe.

Once the front passes through the region, a much drier and cooler
airmass will quickly build into the region for most of next week.
Highs in the low 80s (if not upper 70s in a few spots) and lows in
the 50s will be common area-wide.  With such a dry airmass in place,
precipitation chances will be quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today through
tonight.

Southerly surface winds will persist and become gusty today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251146
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A return to more typical summertime heat and humidity will commence
today, as a warm front lifts north across the region this morning.
This will result in much warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints,
especially across the northwestern portion of the CWA.  The
inherited Heat Advisory for far southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri will continue unchanged.

After a warm night tonight, the warmest day of the year so far
appears likely for Saturday, with temperatures well into the mid to
upper 90s area-wide.  Portions of the Osage Plains will flirt with
100 degrees during the afternoon hours.  The good news is that
daytime mixing looks to be deep enough to knock a couple of degrees
off of dewpoints during peak heating, though perhaps not enough to
preclude the need for another Heat Advisory for at least a portion
of the region.  For now, will run with a dry forecast for Saturday
afternoon and evening, though a few models are trying to break out
an isolated thunderstorm or two across central Missouri.  At this
point, though, it appears that capping should be strong enough to
keep PoPs rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

By Sunday, a strong shortwave will begin to dive southeast across
the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front south through the region.
Timing of the frontal passage looks to be Sunday afternoon and
evening, though some differences remain within the model suite.  A
few thunderstorms will be possible as the front passes, but the
threat at this time looks to be fairly isolated. Given the strength
of the front, an isolated stronger storm will also be possible
during this timeframe.

Once the front passes through the region, a much drier and cooler
airmass will quickly build into the region for most of next week.
Highs in the low 80s (if not upper 70s in a few spots) and lows in
the 50s will be common area-wide.  With such a dry airmass in place,
precipitation chances will be quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today through
tonight.

Southerly surface winds will persist and become gusty today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 250752
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A return to more typical summertime heat and humidity will commence
today, as a warm front lifts north across the region this morning.
This will result in much warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints,
especially across the northwestern portion of the CWA.  The
inherited Heat Advisory for far southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri will continue unchanged.

After a warm night tonight, the warmest day of the year so far
appears likely for Saturday, with temperatures well into the mid to
upper 90s area-wide.  Portions of the Osage Plains will flirt with
100 degrees during the afternoon hours.  The good news is that
daytime mixing looks to be deep enough to knock a couple of degrees
off of dewpoints during peak heating, though perhaps not enough to
preclude the need for another Heat Advisory for at least a portion
of the region.  For now, will run with a dry forecast for Saturday
afternoon and evening, though a few models are trying to break out
an isolated thunderstorm or two across central Missouri.  At this
point, though, it appears that capping should be strong enough to
keep PoPs rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

By Sunday, a strong shortwave will begin to dive southeast across
the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front south through the region.
Timing of the frontal passage looks to be Sunday afternoon and
evening, though some differences remain within the model suite.  A
few thunderstorms will be possible as the front passes, but the
threat at this time looks to be fairly isolated. Given the strength
of the front, an isolated stronger storm will also be possible
during this timeframe.

Once the front passes through the region, a much drier and cooler
airmass will quickly build into the region for most of next week.
Highs in the low 80s (if not upper 70s in a few spots) and lows in
the 50s will be common area-wide.  With such a dry airmass in place,
precipitation chances will be quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Will see some surface wind gustiness at JLN on Friday during the
day as pressure gradient increases with the departing high to the
east and developing low to the west. VFR conditions are expected
through the period as an upper level ridge builds into the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250752
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A return to more typical summertime heat and humidity will commence
today, as a warm front lifts north across the region this morning.
This will result in much warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints,
especially across the northwestern portion of the CWA.  The
inherited Heat Advisory for far southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri will continue unchanged.

After a warm night tonight, the warmest day of the year so far
appears likely for Saturday, with temperatures well into the mid to
upper 90s area-wide.  Portions of the Osage Plains will flirt with
100 degrees during the afternoon hours.  The good news is that
daytime mixing looks to be deep enough to knock a couple of degrees
off of dewpoints during peak heating, though perhaps not enough to
preclude the need for another Heat Advisory for at least a portion
of the region.  For now, will run with a dry forecast for Saturday
afternoon and evening, though a few models are trying to break out
an isolated thunderstorm or two across central Missouri.  At this
point, though, it appears that capping should be strong enough to
keep PoPs rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

By Sunday, a strong shortwave will begin to dive southeast across
the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front south through the region.
Timing of the frontal passage looks to be Sunday afternoon and
evening, though some differences remain within the model suite.  A
few thunderstorms will be possible as the front passes, but the
threat at this time looks to be fairly isolated. Given the strength
of the front, an isolated stronger storm will also be possible
during this timeframe.

Once the front passes through the region, a much drier and cooler
airmass will quickly build into the region for most of next week.
Highs in the low 80s (if not upper 70s in a few spots) and lows in
the 50s will be common area-wide.  With such a dry airmass in place,
precipitation chances will be quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Will see some surface wind gustiness at JLN on Friday during the
day as pressure gradient increases with the departing high to the
east and developing low to the west. VFR conditions are expected
through the period as an upper level ridge builds into the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 250416
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Based on collaboration with Wichita, Topeka, and Kansas City, a
Heat Advisory has been posted for the Osage Plains Region.
Thinking is that Heat Indices may get close enough to 105 degrees
for an advisory in that region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and less humid weather was ongoing across the
Ozarks today. Easterly winds behind a cool front left us with
comfortable weather.

This drier airmass will have an influence on low temps tonight
with readings falling into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks.
Upper 60 degree lows are expected out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

Warmer weather will begin tomorrow with highs in the low to middle
90s. A return of southerly winds combined with plenty of sunshine
will help the cause. These two factors will also come into play on
Saturday, with highs in the middle 90s. Heat indices will warm
into the 100s Saturday.

Little to no precipitation chances are in the forecast through
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Sunday a Canadian frontal system will approach and sweep
southward through southern Missouri. This feature will be forced
unusually south by an upper low that amplifies across the upper
midwest. This will allow for fantastic outdoor weather through
much of next work week.

There will be a 20-30 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms as this system pushes through.

Models do not suggest much precipitation, however, I`m leary to
think that we all remain dry through this frontal passage. The
airmass should have ample moisture and instability to support
convection near the front on Sunday. Many locations could remain
dry, however, we do think some thunder will be possible.

Starting Monday, highs will warm into the lower 80s on an
afternoon basis through Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into
the 50s and 60s.

During next work week, there remains no identifiable signal for
good rain chances. There could be a couple of shortwaves that
migrate through the westerlies, but at this point, figuring out
when that happens is tough to pinpoint.

Hope everyone enjoys the cool weather next week. Have a good one !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Will see some surface wind gustiness at JLN on Friday during the
day as pressure gradient increases with the departing high to the
east and developing low to the west. VFR conditions are expected
through the period as an upper level ridge builds into the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250416
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Based on collaboration with Wichita, Topeka, and Kansas City, a
Heat Advisory has been posted for the Osage Plains Region.
Thinking is that Heat Indices may get close enough to 105 degrees
for an advisory in that region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and less humid weather was ongoing across the
Ozarks today. Easterly winds behind a cool front left us with
comfortable weather.

This drier airmass will have an influence on low temps tonight
with readings falling into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks.
Upper 60 degree lows are expected out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

Warmer weather will begin tomorrow with highs in the low to middle
90s. A return of southerly winds combined with plenty of sunshine
will help the cause. These two factors will also come into play on
Saturday, with highs in the middle 90s. Heat indices will warm
into the 100s Saturday.

Little to no precipitation chances are in the forecast through
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Sunday a Canadian frontal system will approach and sweep
southward through southern Missouri. This feature will be forced
unusually south by an upper low that amplifies across the upper
midwest. This will allow for fantastic outdoor weather through
much of next work week.

There will be a 20-30 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms as this system pushes through.

Models do not suggest much precipitation, however, I`m leary to
think that we all remain dry through this frontal passage. The
airmass should have ample moisture and instability to support
convection near the front on Sunday. Many locations could remain
dry, however, we do think some thunder will be possible.

Starting Monday, highs will warm into the lower 80s on an
afternoon basis through Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into
the 50s and 60s.

During next work week, there remains no identifiable signal for
good rain chances. There could be a couple of shortwaves that
migrate through the westerlies, but at this point, figuring out
when that happens is tough to pinpoint.

Hope everyone enjoys the cool weather next week. Have a good one !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Will see some surface wind gustiness at JLN on Friday during the
day as pressure gradient increases with the departing high to the
east and developing low to the west. VFR conditions are expected
through the period as an upper level ridge builds into the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 242248
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Based on collaboration with Wichita, Topeka, and Kansas City, a
Heat Advisory has been posted for the Osage Plains Region.
Thinking is that Heat Indices may get close enough to 105 degrees
for an advisory in that region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and less humid weather was ongoing across the
Ozarks today. Easterly winds behind a cool front left us with
comfortable weather.

This drier airmass will have an influence on low temps tonight
with readings falling into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks.
Upper 60 degree lows are expected out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

Warmer weather will begin tomorrow with highs in the low to middle
90s. A return of southerly winds combined with plenty of sunshine
will help the cause. These two factors will also come into play on
Saturday, with highs in the middle 90s. Heat indices will warm
into the 100s Saturday.

Little to no precipitation chances are in the forecast through
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Sunday a Canadian frontal system will approach and sweep
southward through southern Missouri. This feature will be forced
unusually south by an upper low that amplifies across the upper
midwest. This will allow for fantastic outdoor weather through
much of next work week.

There will be a 20-30 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms as this system pushes through.

Models do not suggest much precipitation, however, I`m leary to
think that we all remain dry through this frontal passage. The
airmass should have ample moisture and instability to support
convection near the front on Sunday. Many locations could remain
dry, however, we do think some thunder will be possible.

Starting Monday, highs will warm into the lower 80s on an
afternoon basis through Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into
the 50s and 60s.

During next work week, there remains no identifiable signal for
good rain chances. There could be a couple of shortwaves that
migrate through the westerlies, but at this point, figuring out
when that happens is tough to pinpoint.

Hope everyone enjoys the cool weather next week. Have a good one !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface ridge will shift to the east through the forecast period
with southerly surface winds developing during the day on Friday
and increasing into the 10-15kt range at SGF and gusty at JLN with
15 to 25 kts possible. VFR conditions are expected through the
period with an upper level ridge of high pressure building into
the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 242248
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Based on collaboration with Wichita, Topeka, and Kansas City, a
Heat Advisory has been posted for the Osage Plains Region.
Thinking is that Heat Indices may get close enough to 105 degrees
for an advisory in that region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and less humid weather was ongoing across the
Ozarks today. Easterly winds behind a cool front left us with
comfortable weather.

This drier airmass will have an influence on low temps tonight
with readings falling into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks.
Upper 60 degree lows are expected out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

Warmer weather will begin tomorrow with highs in the low to middle
90s. A return of southerly winds combined with plenty of sunshine
will help the cause. These two factors will also come into play on
Saturday, with highs in the middle 90s. Heat indices will warm
into the 100s Saturday.

Little to no precipitation chances are in the forecast through
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Sunday a Canadian frontal system will approach and sweep
southward through southern Missouri. This feature will be forced
unusually south by an upper low that amplifies across the upper
midwest. This will allow for fantastic outdoor weather through
much of next work week.

There will be a 20-30 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms as this system pushes through.

Models do not suggest much precipitation, however, I`m leary to
think that we all remain dry through this frontal passage. The
airmass should have ample moisture and instability to support
convection near the front on Sunday. Many locations could remain
dry, however, we do think some thunder will be possible.

Starting Monday, highs will warm into the lower 80s on an
afternoon basis through Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into
the 50s and 60s.

During next work week, there remains no identifiable signal for
good rain chances. There could be a couple of shortwaves that
migrate through the westerlies, but at this point, figuring out
when that happens is tough to pinpoint.

Hope everyone enjoys the cool weather next week. Have a good one !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface ridge will shift to the east through the forecast period
with southerly surface winds developing during the day on Friday
and increasing into the 10-15kt range at SGF and gusty at JLN with
15 to 25 kts possible. VFR conditions are expected through the
period with an upper level ridge of high pressure building into
the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242100
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Based on collaboration with Wichita, Topeka, and Kansas City, a
Heat Advisory has been posted for the Osage Plains Region.
Thinking is that Heat Indices may get close enough to 105 degrees
for an advisory in that region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and less humid weather was ongoing across the
Ozarks today. Easterly winds behind a cool front left us with
comfortable weather.

This drier airmass will have an influence on low temps tonight
with readings falling into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks.
Upper 60 degree lows are expected out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

Warmer weather will begin tomorrow with highs in the low to middle
90s. A return of southerly winds combined with plenty of sunshine
will help the cause. These two factors will also come into play on
Saturday, with highs in the middle 90s. Heat indices will warm
into the 100s Saturday.

Little to no precipitation chances are in the forecast through
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Sunday a Canadian frontal system will approach and sweep
southward through southern Missouri. This feature will be forced
unusually south by an upper low that amplifies across the upper
midwest. This will allow for fantastic outdoor weather through
much of next work week.

There will be a 20-30 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms as this system pushes through.

Models do not suggest much precipitation, however, I`m leary to
think that we all remain dry through this frontal passage. The
airmass should have ample moisture and instability to support
convection near the front on Sunday. Many locations could remain
dry, however, we do think some thunder will be possible.

Starting Monday, highs will warm into the lower 80s on an
afternoon basis through Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into
the 50s and 60s.

During next work week, there remains no identifiable signal for
good rain chances. There could be a couple of shortwaves that
migrate through the westerlies, but at this point, figuring out
when that happens is tough to pinpoint.

Hope everyone enjoys the cool weather next week. Have a good one !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for the
taf period. A sfc ridge of high pressure that extends from the
Great Lakes to the Ozarks region will shift to the east as a front
moves into the central Plains. S-Sw winds will increase late in
the taf period, particularly at KJLN where some moderate gusts may
develop after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 242100
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Based on collaboration with Wichita, Topeka, and Kansas City, a
Heat Advisory has been posted for the Osage Plains Region.
Thinking is that Heat Indices may get close enough to 105 degrees
for an advisory in that region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and less humid weather was ongoing across the
Ozarks today. Easterly winds behind a cool front left us with
comfortable weather.

This drier airmass will have an influence on low temps tonight
with readings falling into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks.
Upper 60 degree lows are expected out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

Warmer weather will begin tomorrow with highs in the low to middle
90s. A return of southerly winds combined with plenty of sunshine
will help the cause. These two factors will also come into play on
Saturday, with highs in the middle 90s. Heat indices will warm
into the 100s Saturday.

Little to no precipitation chances are in the forecast through
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Sunday a Canadian frontal system will approach and sweep
southward through southern Missouri. This feature will be forced
unusually south by an upper low that amplifies across the upper
midwest. This will allow for fantastic outdoor weather through
much of next work week.

There will be a 20-30 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms as this system pushes through.

Models do not suggest much precipitation, however, I`m leary to
think that we all remain dry through this frontal passage. The
airmass should have ample moisture and instability to support
convection near the front on Sunday. Many locations could remain
dry, however, we do think some thunder will be possible.

Starting Monday, highs will warm into the lower 80s on an
afternoon basis through Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into
the 50s and 60s.

During next work week, there remains no identifiable signal for
good rain chances. There could be a couple of shortwaves that
migrate through the westerlies, but at this point, figuring out
when that happens is tough to pinpoint.

Hope everyone enjoys the cool weather next week. Have a good one !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for the
taf period. A sfc ridge of high pressure that extends from the
Great Lakes to the Ozarks region will shift to the east as a front
moves into the central Plains. S-Sw winds will increase late in
the taf period, particularly at KJLN where some moderate gusts may
develop after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and less humid weather was ongoing across the
Ozarks today. Easterly winds behind a cool front left us with
comfortable weather.

This drier airmass will have an influence on low temps tonight
with readings falling into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks.
Upper 60 degree lows are expected out toward joplin and Pittsburg.

Warmer weather will begin tomorrow with highs in the low to middle
90s. A return of southerly winds combined with plenty of sunshine
will help the cause. These two factors will also come into play on
Saturday, with highs in the middle 90s. Heat indices will warm
into the 100s Saturday.

Little to no precipitation chances are in the forecast through
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Sunday a Canadian frontal system will approach and sweep
southward through southern Missouri. This feature will be forced
unusually south by an upper low that amplifies across the upper
midwest. This will allow for fantastic outdoor weather through
much of next work week.

There will be a 20-30 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms as this system pushes through.

Models do not suggest much precipitation, however, I`m leary to
think that we all remain dry through this frontal passage. The
airmass should have ample moisture and instability to support
convection near the front on Sunday. Many locations could remain
dry, however, we do think some thunder will be possible.

Starting Monday, highs will warm into the lower 80s on an
afternoon basis through Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into
the 50s and 60s.

During next work week, there remains no identifiable signal for
good rain chances. There could be a couple of shortwaves that
migrate through the westerlies, but at this point, figuring out
when that happens is tough to pinpoint.

Hope everyone enjoys the cool weather next week. Have a good one !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for the
taf period. A sfc ridge of high pressure that extends from the
Great Lakes to the Ozarks region will shift to the east as a front
moves into the central Plains. S-Sw winds will increase late in
the taf period, particularly at KJLN where some moderate gusts may
develop after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241745
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface high pressure building into the area is giving us a brief
reprieve from the heat/humidity of the past few days. On the heels
of north/northeast winds, dew points are steadily dropping across
the area. Aside from a few patches of stratocumulus, most
locations at this hour are clear with temperatures ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. There has been some localized fog in
the Branson area this morning, and until dry air advection takes
hold, this fog will persist.

Today and tonight will be rather pleasant across the region as the
aforementioned surface high pressure dominates our weather regime.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with comfortable humidity
levels. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. High pressure aloft will quickly spread back into the
area tomorrow and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in a return to hot temperatures and increasing humidity
levels. Temperatures will be at or just above average Friday, and
decidedly above average on Saturday. In fact, Saturday`s
conditions will rival what we experienced this past Tuesday with
highs well into the 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105
range. Will have to keep an eye on the need for a heat advisory on
Saturday.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level pattern will
amplify with a strong trough moving into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front through the area
and bring a chance for showers and storms. Timing of the front
isn`t ideal, but there should be enough lift and instability to
support some scattered shower and storm activity along the front.
A return to well below average temperatures (by about 10 degrees)
is in store for the region for the first half of next week.
Dew points will fall well into the 50s, possibly even the 40s, so
humidity/heat index will be of no concern. Will need to monitor
the storm track during the middle of next week given northwest
flow aloft. We will be prone to a few shortwave passages. Trust is
details at this point is on the low side, though the potential for
intermittent rain chances exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for the
taf period. A sfc ridge of high pressure that extends from the
Great Lakes to the Ozarks region will shift to the east as a front
moves into the central Plains. S-Sw winds will increase late in
the taf period, particularly at KJLN where some moderate gusts may
develop after 15z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241745
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface high pressure building into the area is giving us a brief
reprieve from the heat/humidity of the past few days. On the heels
of north/northeast winds, dew points are steadily dropping across
the area. Aside from a few patches of stratocumulus, most
locations at this hour are clear with temperatures ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. There has been some localized fog in
the Branson area this morning, and until dry air advection takes
hold, this fog will persist.

Today and tonight will be rather pleasant across the region as the
aforementioned surface high pressure dominates our weather regime.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with comfortable humidity
levels. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. High pressure aloft will quickly spread back into the
area tomorrow and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in a return to hot temperatures and increasing humidity
levels. Temperatures will be at or just above average Friday, and
decidedly above average on Saturday. In fact, Saturday`s
conditions will rival what we experienced this past Tuesday with
highs well into the 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105
range. Will have to keep an eye on the need for a heat advisory on
Saturday.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level pattern will
amplify with a strong trough moving into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front through the area
and bring a chance for showers and storms. Timing of the front
isn`t ideal, but there should be enough lift and instability to
support some scattered shower and storm activity along the front.
A return to well below average temperatures (by about 10 degrees)
is in store for the region for the first half of next week.
Dew points will fall well into the 50s, possibly even the 40s, so
humidity/heat index will be of no concern. Will need to monitor
the storm track during the middle of next week given northwest
flow aloft. We will be prone to a few shortwave passages. Trust is
details at this point is on the low side, though the potential for
intermittent rain chances exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for the
taf period. A sfc ridge of high pressure that extends from the
Great Lakes to the Ozarks region will shift to the east as a front
moves into the central Plains. S-Sw winds will increase late in
the taf period, particularly at KJLN where some moderate gusts may
develop after 15z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface high pressure building into the area is giving us a brief
reprieve from the heat/humidity of the past few days. On the heels
of north/northeast winds, dewpoints are steadily dropping across
the area. Aside from a few patches of stratocumulus, most
locations at this hour are clear with temperatures ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. There has been some localized fog in
the Branson area this morning, and until dry air advection takes
hold, this fog will persist.

Today and tonight will be rather pleasant across the region as the
aforementioned surface high pressure dominates our weather regime.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with comfortable humidity
levels. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. High pressure aloft will quickly spread back into the
area tomorrow and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in a return to hot temperatures and increasing humidity
levels. Temperatures will be at or just above average Friday, and
decidedly above average on Saturday. In fact, Saturday`s
conditions will rival what we experienced this past Tuesday with
highs well into the 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105
range. Will have to keep an eye on the need for a heat advisory on
Saturday.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level pattern will
amplify with a strong trough moving into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front through the area
and bring a chance for showers and storms. Timing of the front
isn`t ideal, but there should be enough lift and instability to
support some scattered shower and storm activity along the front.
A return to well below average temperatures (by about 10 degrees)
is in store for the region for the first half of next week.
Dewpoints will fall well into the 50s, possibly even the 40s, so
humidity/heat index will be of no concern. Will need to monitor
the storm track during the middle of next week given northwest
flow aloft. We will be prone to a few shortwave passages. Trust is
details at this point is on the low side, though the potential for
intermittent rain chances exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Other than a very brief period of MVFR cigs this morning at BBG,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours area-wide. Winds
will be east northeast for much of the day today, becoming
southeasterly this evening/tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface high pressure building into the area is giving us a brief
reprieve from the heat/humidity of the past few days. On the heels
of north/northeast winds, dewpoints are steadily dropping across
the area. Aside from a few patches of stratocumulus, most
locations at this hour are clear with temperatures ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. There has been some localized fog in
the Branson area this morning, and until dry air advection takes
hold, this fog will persist.

Today and tonight will be rather pleasant across the region as the
aforementioned surface high pressure dominates our weather regime.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with comfortable humidity
levels. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. High pressure aloft will quickly spread back into the
area tomorrow and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in a return to hot temperatures and increasing humidity
levels. Temperatures will be at or just above average Friday, and
decidedly above average on Saturday. In fact, Saturday`s
conditions will rival what we experienced this past Tuesday with
highs well into the 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105
range. Will have to keep an eye on the need for a heat advisory on
Saturday.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level pattern will
amplify with a strong trough moving into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front through the area
and bring a chance for showers and storms. Timing of the front
isn`t ideal, but there should be enough lift and instability to
support some scattered shower and storm activity along the front.
A return to well below average temperatures (by about 10 degrees)
is in store for the region for the first half of next week.
Dewpoints will fall well into the 50s, possibly even the 40s, so
humidity/heat index will be of no concern. Will need to monitor
the storm track during the middle of next week given northwest
flow aloft. We will be prone to a few shortwave passages. Trust is
details at this point is on the low side, though the potential for
intermittent rain chances exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Other than a very brief period of MVFR cigs this morning at BBG,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours area-wide. Winds
will be east northeast for much of the day today, becoming
southeasterly this evening/tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface high pressure building into the area is giving us a brief
reprieve from the heat/humidity of the past few days. On the heels
of north/northeast winds, dewpoints are steadily dropping across
the area. Aside from a few patches of stratocumulus, most
locations at this hour are clear with temperatures ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. There has been some localized fog in
the Branson area this morning, and until dry air advection takes
hold, this fog will persist.

Today and tonight will be rather pleasant across the region as the
aforementioned surface high pressure dominates our weather regime.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with comfortable humidity
levels. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. High pressure aloft will quickly spread back into the
area tomorrow and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in a return to hot temperatures and increasing humidity
levels. Temperatures will be at or just above average Friday, and
decidedly above average on Saturday. In fact, Saturday`s
conditions will rival what we experienced this past Tuesday with
highs well into the 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105
range. Will have to keep an eye on the need for a heat advisory on
Saturday.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level pattern will
amplify with a strong trough moving into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front through the area
and bring a chance for showers and storms. Timing of the front
isn`t ideal, but there should be enough lift and instability to
support some scattered shower and storm activity along the front.
A return to well below average temperatures (by about 10 degrees)
is in store for the region for the first half of next week.
Dewpoints will fall well into the 50s, possibly even the 40s, so
humidity/heat index will be of no concern. Will need to monitor
the storm track during the middle of next week given northwest
flow aloft. We will be prone to a few shortwave passages. Trust is
details at this point is on the low side, though the potential for
intermittent rain chances exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Some localized dense fog and LIFR ceilings concentrated around the
BBG. Will hold on to LIFR conditions for much of the overnight
hours, but should burn off quickly after sunrise on Thursday.
Elsewhere, expecting VFR conditions through the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface high pressure building into the area is giving us a brief
reprieve from the heat/humidity of the past few days. On the heels
of north/northeast winds, dewpoints are steadily dropping across
the area. Aside from a few patches of stratocumulus, most
locations at this hour are clear with temperatures ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. There has been some localized fog in
the Branson area this morning, and until dry air advection takes
hold, this fog will persist.

Today and tonight will be rather pleasant across the region as the
aforementioned surface high pressure dominates our weather regime.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with comfortable humidity
levels. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. High pressure aloft will quickly spread back into the
area tomorrow and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in a return to hot temperatures and increasing humidity
levels. Temperatures will be at or just above average Friday, and
decidedly above average on Saturday. In fact, Saturday`s
conditions will rival what we experienced this past Tuesday with
highs well into the 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105
range. Will have to keep an eye on the need for a heat advisory on
Saturday.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level pattern will
amplify with a strong trough moving into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front through the area
and bring a chance for showers and storms. Timing of the front
isn`t ideal, but there should be enough lift and instability to
support some scattered shower and storm activity along the front.
A return to well below average temperatures (by about 10 degrees)
is in store for the region for the first half of next week.
Dewpoints will fall well into the 50s, possibly even the 40s, so
humidity/heat index will be of no concern. Will need to monitor
the storm track during the middle of next week given northwest
flow aloft. We will be prone to a few shortwave passages. Trust is
details at this point is on the low side, though the potential for
intermittent rain chances exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Some localized dense fog and LIFR ceilings concentrated around the
BBG. Will hold on to LIFR conditions for much of the overnight
hours, but should burn off quickly after sunrise on Thursday.
Elsewhere, expecting VFR conditions through the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240434
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The cold front is now located near the Missouri Arkansas border
this afternoon. The bulk of the convection and stronger activity
has now pushed south of the area. Some scattered convection is
developing behind the front across southern Missouri this
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes south through
the region. This activity will slowly spread south during the
rest of this afternoon and this activity will push out of the area
early this evening with no severe weather expected. Brief heavy
rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes can be
expect with the storms within this activity.

A slightly cooler and drier air mass will spread into the region
behind the front tonight into Thursday as the upper level ridge is
pushed slightly to the west over the Plains. Highs on Thursday
will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the
upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The upper level ridge will build back over the central U.S. on
Friday into this weekend. Highs will warm back into the 90s each
afternoon with heat index values warming to around 100 to near 105
degrees each afternoon as increasing low level moisture also
spreads into the region. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower
to middle 90s.

An upper level trough will push across the northern Plains on
Sunday and will then dive south across the region early next week.
This will push a cold front through the area. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday afternoon
into Sunday afternoon as the front nears and pushes through the
region.

The upper level ridge will be pushed back over the west coast
as the upper level trough moves over the eastern U.S. with our area
under the trough. This will result in below normal temperatures
through much of next week as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Some localized dense fog and LIFR ceilings concentrated around the
BBG. Will hold on to LIFR conditions for much of the overnight
hours, but should burn off quickly after sunrise on Thursday.
Elsewhere, expecting VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240434
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The cold front is now located near the Missouri Arkansas border
this afternoon. The bulk of the convection and stronger activity
has now pushed south of the area. Some scattered convection is
developing behind the front across southern Missouri this
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes south through
the region. This activity will slowly spread south during the
rest of this afternoon and this activity will push out of the area
early this evening with no severe weather expected. Brief heavy
rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes can be
expect with the storms within this activity.

A slightly cooler and drier air mass will spread into the region
behind the front tonight into Thursday as the upper level ridge is
pushed slightly to the west over the Plains. Highs on Thursday
will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the
upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The upper level ridge will build back over the central U.S. on
Friday into this weekend. Highs will warm back into the 90s each
afternoon with heat index values warming to around 100 to near 105
degrees each afternoon as increasing low level moisture also
spreads into the region. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower
to middle 90s.

An upper level trough will push across the northern Plains on
Sunday and will then dive south across the region early next week.
This will push a cold front through the area. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday afternoon
into Sunday afternoon as the front nears and pushes through the
region.

The upper level ridge will be pushed back over the west coast
as the upper level trough moves over the eastern U.S. with our area
under the trough. This will result in below normal temperatures
through much of next week as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Some localized dense fog and LIFR ceilings concentrated around the
BBG. Will hold on to LIFR conditions for much of the overnight
hours, but should burn off quickly after sunrise on Thursday.
Elsewhere, expecting VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 232241
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The cold front is now located near the Missouri Arkansas border
this afternoon. The bulk of the convection and stronger activity
has now pushed south of the area. Some scattered convection is
developing behind the front across southern Missouri this
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes south through
the region. This activity will slowly spread south during the
rest of this afternoon and this activity will push out of the area
early this evening with no severe weather expected. Brief heavy
rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes can be
expect with the storms within this activity.

A slightly cooler and drier air mass will spread into the region
behind the front tonight into Thursday as the upper level ridge is
pushed slightly to the west over the Plains. Highs on Thursday
will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the
upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The upper level ridge will build back over the central U.S. on
Friday into this weekend. Highs will warm back into the 90s each
afternoon with heat index values warming to around 100 to near 105
degrees each afternoon as increasing low level moisture also
spreads into the region. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower
to middle 90s.

An upper level trough will push across the northern Plains on
Sunday and will then dive south across the region early next week.
This will push a cold front through the area. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday afternoon
into Sunday afternoon as the front nears and pushes through the
region.

The upper level ridge will be pushed back over the west coast
as the upper level trough moves over the eastern U.S. with our area
under the trough. This will result in below normal temperatures
through much of next week as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Convection has shifted off to the south into Arkansas with a few
small cells just north of the border and east of the BBG terminal.
Will hold on for an hour at the onset of the 00z TAF for BBG to
VCTS wording. Otherwise, with slightly drier and cooler air mass
moving in, should have a clear sky through the remainder of the
TAF period. There could be some MVFR visibilities develop
overnight, especially in areas which received rainfall earlier
today. For this reason, have gone with some light fog at the terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 232241
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The cold front is now located near the Missouri Arkansas border
this afternoon. The bulk of the convection and stronger activity
has now pushed south of the area. Some scattered convection is
developing behind the front across southern Missouri this
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes south through
the region. This activity will slowly spread south during the
rest of this afternoon and this activity will push out of the area
early this evening with no severe weather expected. Brief heavy
rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes can be
expect with the storms within this activity.

A slightly cooler and drier air mass will spread into the region
behind the front tonight into Thursday as the upper level ridge is
pushed slightly to the west over the Plains. Highs on Thursday
will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the
upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The upper level ridge will build back over the central U.S. on
Friday into this weekend. Highs will warm back into the 90s each
afternoon with heat index values warming to around 100 to near 105
degrees each afternoon as increasing low level moisture also
spreads into the region. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower
to middle 90s.

An upper level trough will push across the northern Plains on
Sunday and will then dive south across the region early next week.
This will push a cold front through the area. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday afternoon
into Sunday afternoon as the front nears and pushes through the
region.

The upper level ridge will be pushed back over the west coast
as the upper level trough moves over the eastern U.S. with our area
under the trough. This will result in below normal temperatures
through much of next week as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Convection has shifted off to the south into Arkansas with a few
small cells just north of the border and east of the BBG terminal.
Will hold on for an hour at the onset of the 00z TAF for BBG to
VCTS wording. Otherwise, with slightly drier and cooler air mass
moving in, should have a clear sky through the remainder of the
TAF period. There could be some MVFR visibilities develop
overnight, especially in areas which received rainfall earlier
today. For this reason, have gone with some light fog at the terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 232038
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The cold front is now located near the Missouri Arkansas border
this afternoon. The bulk of the convection and stronger activity
has now pushed south of the area. Some scattered convection is
developing behind the front across southern Missouri this
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes south through
the region. This activity will slowly spread south during the
rest of this afternoon and this activity will push out of the area
early this evening with no severe weather expected. Brief heavy
rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes can be
expect with the storms within this activity.

A slightly cooler and drier air mass will spread into the region
behind the front tonight into Thursday as the upper level ridge is
pushed slightly to the west over the Plains. Highs on Thursday
will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the
upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The upper level ridge will build back over the central U.S. on
Friday into this weekend. Highs will warm back into the 90s each
afternoon with heat index values warming to around 100 to near 105
degrees each afternoon as increasing low level moisture also
spreads into the region. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower
to middle 90s.

An upper level trough will push across the northern Plains on
Sunday and will then dive south across the region early next week.
This will push a cold front through the area. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday afternoon
into Sunday afternoon as the front nears and pushes through the
region.

The upper level ridge will be pushed back over the west coast
as the upper level trough moves over the eastern U.S. with our area
under the trough. This will result in below normal temperatures
through much of next week as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A line of thunderstorms will clip southwestern Missouri early this
afternoon and is expected to impact the Joplin terminal. MVFR
conditions with perhaps some brief IFR can be expected. Gusty west
to northwest winds will also accompany this line. Meanwhile, MVFR
ceilings will also persist for a portion of this afternoon across
southern Missouri. Skies are then expected to clear by mid-
evening. We are then expecting light fog overnight into early
Thursday morning. Winds will remain light out of the north tonight
and Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 232038
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The cold front is now located near the Missouri Arkansas border
this afternoon. The bulk of the convection and stronger activity
has now pushed south of the area. Some scattered convection is
developing behind the front across southern Missouri this
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes south through
the region. This activity will slowly spread south during the
rest of this afternoon and this activity will push out of the area
early this evening with no severe weather expected. Brief heavy
rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes can be
expect with the storms within this activity.

A slightly cooler and drier air mass will spread into the region
behind the front tonight into Thursday as the upper level ridge is
pushed slightly to the west over the Plains. Highs on Thursday
will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the
upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The upper level ridge will build back over the central U.S. on
Friday into this weekend. Highs will warm back into the 90s each
afternoon with heat index values warming to around 100 to near 105
degrees each afternoon as increasing low level moisture also
spreads into the region. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower
to middle 90s.

An upper level trough will push across the northern Plains on
Sunday and will then dive south across the region early next week.
This will push a cold front through the area. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday afternoon
into Sunday afternoon as the front nears and pushes through the
region.

The upper level ridge will be pushed back over the west coast
as the upper level trough moves over the eastern U.S. with our area
under the trough. This will result in below normal temperatures
through much of next week as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A line of thunderstorms will clip southwestern Missouri early this
afternoon and is expected to impact the Joplin terminal. MVFR
conditions with perhaps some brief IFR can be expected. Gusty west
to northwest winds will also accompany this line. Meanwhile, MVFR
ceilings will also persist for a portion of this afternoon across
southern Missouri. Skies are then expected to clear by mid-
evening. We are then expecting light fog overnight into early
Thursday morning. Winds will remain light out of the north tonight
and Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Rather challenging short term forecast this morning. So far this
morning, the regional radar imagery has been mostly quiet with
just a few showers/storms popping up and dissipating across
eastern Missouri. This is, of course, in spite of previous (and
numerous) model solutions suggesting robust thunderstorm
development along the incoming cold front. Turns out that in
reality forcing has been much too weak to overcome warm
temperatures aloft (14C at 700mb is usually tough to overcome).

That said, altocumulus development has been noted on the regional
IR satellite imagery over the past few hours. Elevated parcels are
nearly uncapped, and there there is still plenty of elevated CAPE
present. Unfortunately, large scale forcing mechanisms remain on
the weak side. As a result, there remains the potential for a few
showers and storms to gradually develop along the incoming cold
front. Confidence, however, is shaky at best. Unless radar trends
begin to change dramatically, will likely be dropping going PoPs
to slight chance/low end chance.

The aforementioned cold front is currently entering central
Missouri. The wind shift should continue tracking south at around
30mph. The dewpoint drop with this front, however, is lagging by
about 100 miles or so. As a result, muggy conditions we are
experiencing right now will continue today. The front and lagging
dewpoint drop will exit to the south later this afternoon into
early this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will filter into
the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00z suite of model output offers a few changes to the going
forecast. After a brief respite from hot temperatures Thursday,
the upper level ridge builds right back over the area Friday and
Saturday. With very warm 700mb temperatures yet again expected
with this airmass, have gone ahead and cut PoPs for Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday now features a cold front passage on the heels of a rapidly
amplifying upper level pattern. There will be some rain chances
with this frontal passage, but current indications are that any
activity should be rather hit/miss. Another strong trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS and send our temperatures decidedly
back below average. Have gone with low/mid 80s highs next week
with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. If current trends
persist, cooler highs and low will likely be necessary with future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A line of thunderstorms will clip southwestern Missouri early this
afternoon and is expected to impact the Joplin terminal. MVFR
conditions with perhaps some brief IFR can be expected. Gusty west
to northwest winds will also accompany this line. Meanwhile, MVFR
ceilings will also persist for a portion of this afternoon across
southern Missouri. Skies are then expected to clear by mid-
evening. We are then expecting light fog overnight into early
Thursday morning. Winds will remain light out of the north tonight
and Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Rather challenging short term forecast this morning. So far this
morning, the regional radar imagery has been mostly quiet with
just a few showers/storms popping up and dissipating across
eastern Missouri. This is, of course, in spite of previous (and
numerous) model solutions suggesting robust thunderstorm
development along the incoming cold front. Turns out that in
reality forcing has been much too weak to overcome warm
temperatures aloft (14C at 700mb is usually tough to overcome).

That said, altocumulus development has been noted on the regional
IR satellite imagery over the past few hours. Elevated parcels are
nearly uncapped, and there there is still plenty of elevated CAPE
present. Unfortunately, large scale forcing mechanisms remain on
the weak side. As a result, there remains the potential for a few
showers and storms to gradually develop along the incoming cold
front. Confidence, however, is shaky at best. Unless radar trends
begin to change dramatically, will likely be dropping going PoPs
to slight chance/low end chance.

The aforementioned cold front is currently entering central
Missouri. The wind shift should continue tracking south at around
30mph. The dewpoint drop with this front, however, is lagging by
about 100 miles or so. As a result, muggy conditions we are
experiencing right now will continue today. The front and lagging
dewpoint drop will exit to the south later this afternoon into
early this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will filter into
the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00z suite of model output offers a few changes to the going
forecast. After a brief respite from hot temperatures Thursday,
the upper level ridge builds right back over the area Friday and
Saturday. With very warm 700mb temperatures yet again expected
with this airmass, have gone ahead and cut PoPs for Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday now features a cold front passage on the heels of a rapidly
amplifying upper level pattern. There will be some rain chances
with this frontal passage, but current indications are that any
activity should be rather hit/miss. Another strong trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS and send our temperatures decidedly
back below average. Have gone with low/mid 80s highs next week
with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. If current trends
persist, cooler highs and low will likely be necessary with future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A line of thunderstorms will clip southwestern Missouri early this
afternoon and is expected to impact the Joplin terminal. MVFR
conditions with perhaps some brief IFR can be expected. Gusty west
to northwest winds will also accompany this line. Meanwhile, MVFR
ceilings will also persist for a portion of this afternoon across
southern Missouri. Skies are then expected to clear by mid-
evening. We are then expecting light fog overnight into early
Thursday morning. Winds will remain light out of the north tonight
and Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231114
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Rather challenging short term forecast this morning. So far this
morning, the regional radar imagery has been mostly quiet with
just a few showers/storms popping up and dissipating across
eastern Missouri. This is, of course, in spite of previous (and
numerous) model solutions suggesting robust thunderstorm
development along the incoming cold front. Turns out that in
reality forcing has been much too weak to overcome warm
temperatures aloft (14C at 700mb is usually tough to overcome).

That said, altocumulus development has been noted on the regional
IR satellite imagery over the past few hours. Elevated parcels are
nearly uncapped, and there there is still plenty of elevated CAPE
present. Unfortunately, large scale forcing mechanisms remain on
the weak side. As a result, there remains the potential for a few
showers and storms to gradually develop along the incoming cold
front. Confidence, however, is shaky at best. Unless radar trends
begin to change dramatically, will likely be dropping going PoPs
to slight chance/low end chance.

The aforementioned cold front is currently entering central
Missouri. The wind shift should continue tracking south at around
30mph. The dewpoint drop with this front, however, is lagging by
about 100 miles or so. As a result, muggy conditions we are
experiencing right now will continue today. The front and lagging
dewpoint drop will exit to the south later this afternoon into
early this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will filter into
the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00z suite of model output offers a few changes to the going
forecast. After a brief respite from hot temperatures Thursday,
the upper level ridge builds right back over the area Friday and
Saturday. With very warm 700mb temperatures yet again expected
with this airmass, have gone ahead and cut PoPs for Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday now features a cold front passage on the heels of a rapidly
amplifying upper level pattern. There will be some rain chances
with this frontal passage, but current indications are that any
activity should be rather hit/miss. Another strong trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS and send our temperatures decidedly
back below average. Have gone with low/mid 80s highs next week
with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. If current trends
persist, cooler highs and low will likely be necessary with future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front is moving south through the area this morning.
This will cause winds to gradually become northeasterly with time
today and tonight, though speeds will still remain light. A few
isolated thunderstorms may be possible across southern Missouri at
times today, but coverage will be much too sparse for TAF
inclusion. Otherwise, VFR can be expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231114
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Rather challenging short term forecast this morning. So far this
morning, the regional radar imagery has been mostly quiet with
just a few showers/storms popping up and dissipating across
eastern Missouri. This is, of course, in spite of previous (and
numerous) model solutions suggesting robust thunderstorm
development along the incoming cold front. Turns out that in
reality forcing has been much too weak to overcome warm
temperatures aloft (14C at 700mb is usually tough to overcome).

That said, altocumulus development has been noted on the regional
IR satellite imagery over the past few hours. Elevated parcels are
nearly uncapped, and there there is still plenty of elevated CAPE
present. Unfortunately, large scale forcing mechanisms remain on
the weak side. As a result, there remains the potential for a few
showers and storms to gradually develop along the incoming cold
front. Confidence, however, is shaky at best. Unless radar trends
begin to change dramatically, will likely be dropping going PoPs
to slight chance/low end chance.

The aforementioned cold front is currently entering central
Missouri. The wind shift should continue tracking south at around
30mph. The dewpoint drop with this front, however, is lagging by
about 100 miles or so. As a result, muggy conditions we are
experiencing right now will continue today. The front and lagging
dewpoint drop will exit to the south later this afternoon into
early this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will filter into
the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00z suite of model output offers a few changes to the going
forecast. After a brief respite from hot temperatures Thursday,
the upper level ridge builds right back over the area Friday and
Saturday. With very warm 700mb temperatures yet again expected
with this airmass, have gone ahead and cut PoPs for Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday now features a cold front passage on the heels of a rapidly
amplifying upper level pattern. There will be some rain chances
with this frontal passage, but current indications are that any
activity should be rather hit/miss. Another strong trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS and send our temperatures decidedly
back below average. Have gone with low/mid 80s highs next week
with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. If current trends
persist, cooler highs and low will likely be necessary with future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front is moving south through the area this morning.
This will cause winds to gradually become northeasterly with time
today and tonight, though speeds will still remain light. A few
isolated thunderstorms may be possible across southern Missouri at
times today, but coverage will be much too sparse for TAF
inclusion. Otherwise, VFR can be expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230806
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Rather challenging short term forecast this morning. So far this
morning, the regional radar imagery has been mostly quiet with
just a few showers/storms popping up and dissipating across
eastern Missouri. This is, of course, in spite of previous (and
numerous) model solutions suggesting robust thunderstorm
development along the incoming cold front. Turns out that in
reality forcing has been much too weak to overcome warm
temperatures aloft (14C at 700mb is usually tough to overcome).

That said, altocumulus development has been noted on the regional
IR satellite imagery over the past few hours. Elevated parcels are
nearly uncapped, and there there is still plenty of elevated CAPE
present. Unfortunately, large scale forcing mechanisms remain on
the weak side. As a result, there remains the potential for a few
showers and storms to gradually develop along the incoming cold
front. Confidence, however, is shaky at best. Unless radar trends
begin to change dramatically, will likely be dropping going PoPs
to slight chance/low end chance.

The aforementioned cold front is currently entering central
Missouri. The wind shift should continue tracking south at around
30mph. The dewpoint drop with this front, however, is lagging by
about 100 miles or so. As a result, muggy conditions we are
experiencing right now will continue today. The front and lagging
dewpoint drop will exit to the south later this afternoon into
early this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will filter into
the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00z suite of model output offers a few changes to the going
forecast. After a brief respite from hot temperatures Thursday,
the upper level ridge builds right back over the area Friday and
Saturday. With very warm 700mb temperatures yet again expected
with this airmass, have gone ahead and cut PoPs for Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday now features a cold front passage on the heels of a rapidly
amplifying upper level pattern. There will be some rain chances
with this frontal passage, but current indications are that any
activity should be rather hit/miss. Another strong trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS and send our temperatures decidedly
back below average. Have gone with low/mid 80s highs next week
with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. If current trends
persist, cooler highs and low will likely be necessary with future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Pilots can generally expect VFR conditions tonight into Wednesday
as weak front moves southward across the region.

Patchy light fog and haze will develop overnight with localized
MVFR visibility possible.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the
area through Wednesday but the coverage will be minimal.

Light north winds will develop behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230806
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Rather challenging short term forecast this morning. So far this
morning, the regional radar imagery has been mostly quiet with
just a few showers/storms popping up and dissipating across
eastern Missouri. This is, of course, in spite of previous (and
numerous) model solutions suggesting robust thunderstorm
development along the incoming cold front. Turns out that in
reality forcing has been much too weak to overcome warm
temperatures aloft (14C at 700mb is usually tough to overcome).

That said, altocumulus development has been noted on the regional
IR satellite imagery over the past few hours. Elevated parcels are
nearly uncapped, and there there is still plenty of elevated CAPE
present. Unfortunately, large scale forcing mechanisms remain on
the weak side. As a result, there remains the potential for a few
showers and storms to gradually develop along the incoming cold
front. Confidence, however, is shaky at best. Unless radar trends
begin to change dramatically, will likely be dropping going PoPs
to slight chance/low end chance.

The aforementioned cold front is currently entering central
Missouri. The wind shift should continue tracking south at around
30mph. The dewpoint drop with this front, however, is lagging by
about 100 miles or so. As a result, muggy conditions we are
experiencing right now will continue today. The front and lagging
dewpoint drop will exit to the south later this afternoon into
early this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will filter into
the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00z suite of model output offers a few changes to the going
forecast. After a brief respite from hot temperatures Thursday,
the upper level ridge builds right back over the area Friday and
Saturday. With very warm 700mb temperatures yet again expected
with this airmass, have gone ahead and cut PoPs for Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday now features a cold front passage on the heels of a rapidly
amplifying upper level pattern. There will be some rain chances
with this frontal passage, but current indications are that any
activity should be rather hit/miss. Another strong trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS and send our temperatures decidedly
back below average. Have gone with low/mid 80s highs next week
with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. If current trends
persist, cooler highs and low will likely be necessary with future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Pilots can generally expect VFR conditions tonight into Wednesday
as weak front moves southward across the region.

Patchy light fog and haze will develop overnight with localized
MVFR visibility possible.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the
area through Wednesday but the coverage will be minimal.

Light north winds will develop behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230449
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The temperatures across the Heat Advisory area and much of the
remainder of the Ozarks remained in the 90s at 7 pm this evening.
Combine this with dew points in the 70s to around 80 degrees and
extending the Advisory through 9pm was the best course of action.

A weak cold front was making its way south across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. There remains the potential for some
showers and storms to develop, but 14C temps at 850MB on the 00z
sounding put that in a bit of doubt. That and the airmass behind
the front isn`t significantly different than that ahead of it.

Will continue to monitor for storm development, as there is plenty
of CAPE to work with.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The main fcst concern is convective chances tonight and Wednesday.

A shortwave will move southeast through the Midwest, skirting
northeast of the region, but weakening the eastern extension of an
upper level ridge that is in place right now. 12Z raobs from Topeka
and Springfield, MO while very unstable, were a bit capped as
well. Will need to watch to see if convergence and sfc heating can
break the cap as far west as northern mo and ne ks toward 5-7 pm.

A wide variety of mesoscale and global model guidance exists. Some
guidance develops storms late this afternoon along a sfc front
from northeast KS east into MO. Corfidi vectors would take this area
of storms south, maybe even a bit west of south this evening. The
12z wrf-nmm is very aggressive with scenario. Given the
strong instability and progged high sfc-600mb theta-e
differentials (close to 30 deg C), if the storms do develop there
will be a severe storm wind risk. Will continue to highlight the
northern cwfa as having the best overall chance for severe storms.
As far as pops, will probably have the highest chances over the
northeastern cwfa where weaker capping exists.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Tough call based on what happens with
convection late today and tonight. In general will have a synoptic
sfc front dropping south into the area and will keep chances for
showers/storm going Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in from the
north and northeast Wednesday night.

Heat advisory: Based on the current fcst, do not see a need to
extend the ongoing heat advisory for our western counties past
today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

We should see a bit of a cool down for Thursday behind the front,
particularly over the eastern cwfa as high pressure moves into
Missouri and the Midwest. The eastern extension of the western
U.S. ridge reasserts itself with warmer temperatures again Fri and
Sat. Another shortwave is expected to open up and move southeast
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Sunday pushing another
cold front into the area with chances for thunderstorms. Cool and
dry weather is then expected Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Pilots can generally expect VFR conditions tonight into Wednesday
as weak front moves southward across the region.

Patchy light fog and haze will develop overnight with localized
MVFR visibility possible.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the
area through Wednesday but the coverage will be minimal.

Light north winds will develop behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 230449
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The temperatures across the Heat Advisory area and much of the
remainder of the Ozarks remained in the 90s at 7 pm this evening.
Combine this with dew points in the 70s to around 80 degrees and
extending the Advisory through 9pm was the best course of action.

A weak cold front was making its way south across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. There remains the potential for some
showers and storms to develop, but 14C temps at 850MB on the 00z
sounding put that in a bit of doubt. That and the airmass behind
the front isn`t significantly different than that ahead of it.

Will continue to monitor for storm development, as there is plenty
of CAPE to work with.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The main fcst concern is convective chances tonight and Wednesday.

A shortwave will move southeast through the Midwest, skirting
northeast of the region, but weakening the eastern extension of an
upper level ridge that is in place right now. 12Z raobs from Topeka
and Springfield, MO while very unstable, were a bit capped as
well. Will need to watch to see if convergence and sfc heating can
break the cap as far west as northern mo and ne ks toward 5-7 pm.

A wide variety of mesoscale and global model guidance exists. Some
guidance develops storms late this afternoon along a sfc front
from northeast KS east into MO. Corfidi vectors would take this area
of storms south, maybe even a bit west of south this evening. The
12z wrf-nmm is very aggressive with scenario. Given the
strong instability and progged high sfc-600mb theta-e
differentials (close to 30 deg C), if the storms do develop there
will be a severe storm wind risk. Will continue to highlight the
northern cwfa as having the best overall chance for severe storms.
As far as pops, will probably have the highest chances over the
northeastern cwfa where weaker capping exists.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Tough call based on what happens with
convection late today and tonight. In general will have a synoptic
sfc front dropping south into the area and will keep chances for
showers/storm going Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in from the
north and northeast Wednesday night.

Heat advisory: Based on the current fcst, do not see a need to
extend the ongoing heat advisory for our western counties past
today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

We should see a bit of a cool down for Thursday behind the front,
particularly over the eastern cwfa as high pressure moves into
Missouri and the Midwest. The eastern extension of the western
U.S. ridge reasserts itself with warmer temperatures again Fri and
Sat. Another shortwave is expected to open up and move southeast
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Sunday pushing another
cold front into the area with chances for thunderstorms. Cool and
dry weather is then expected Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Pilots can generally expect VFR conditions tonight into Wednesday
as weak front moves southward across the region.

Patchy light fog and haze will develop overnight with localized
MVFR visibility possible.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the
area through Wednesday but the coverage will be minimal.

Light north winds will develop behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230013
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The temperatures across the Heat Advisory area and much of the
remainder of the Ozarks remained in the 90s at 7 pm this evening.
Combine this with dew points in the 70s to around 80 degrees and
extending the Advisory through 9pm was the best course of action.

A weak cold front was making its way south across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. There remains the potential for some
showers and storms to develop, but 14C temps at 850MB on the 00z
sounding put that in a bit of doubt. That and the airmass behind
the front isn`t significantly different than that ahead of it.

Will continue to monitor for storm development, as there is plenty
of CAPE to work with.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The main fcst concern is convective chances tonight and Wednesday.

A shortwave will move southeast through the Midwest, skirting
northeast of the region, but weakening the eastern extension of an
upper level ridge that is in place right now. 12Z raobs from Topeka
and Springfield, MO while very unstable, were a bit capped as
well. Will need to watch to see if convergence and sfc heating can
break the cap as far west as northern mo and ne ks toward 5-7 pm.

A wide variety of mesoscale and global model guidance exists. Some
guidance develops storms late this afternoon along a sfc front
from northeast KS east into MO. Corfidi vectors would take this area
of storms south, maybe even a bit west of south this evening. The
12z wrf-nmm is very aggressive with scenario. Given the
strong instability and progged high sfc-600mb theta-e
differentials (close to 30 deg C), if the storms do develop there
will be a severe storm wind risk. Will continue to highlight the
northern cwfa as having the best overall chance for severe storms.
As far as pops, will probably have the highest chances over the
northeastern cwfa where weaker capping exists.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Tough call based on what happens with
convection late today and tonight. In general will have a synoptic
sfc front dropping south into the area and will keep chances for
showers/storm going Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in from the
north and northeast Wednesday night.

Heat advisory: Based on the current fcst, do not see a need to
extend the ongoing heat advisory for our western counties past
today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

We should see a bit of a cool down for Thursday behind the front,
particularly over the eastern cwfa as high pressure moves into
Missouri and the Midwest. The eastern extension of the western
U.S. ridge reasserts itself with warmer temperatures again Fri and
Sat. Another shortwave is expected to open up and move southeast
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Sunday pushing another
cold front into the area with chances for thunderstorms. Cool and
dry weather is then expected Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The flight forecast looks to be fairly good for the Ozarks region.
The only glitch would be if storms can develop on a weak cold
front moving south towards the region. A strong cap over the area
will likely limit the chance for storms, but have included
VCTS/VCSH as models continue to show some development with the
front. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch










000
FXUS63 KSGF 230013
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The temperatures across the Heat Advisory area and much of the
remainder of the Ozarks remained in the 90s at 7 pm this evening.
Combine this with dew points in the 70s to around 80 degrees and
extending the Advisory through 9pm was the best course of action.

A weak cold front was making its way south across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. There remains the potential for some
showers and storms to develop, but 14C temps at 850MB on the 00z
sounding put that in a bit of doubt. That and the airmass behind
the front isn`t significantly different than that ahead of it.

Will continue to monitor for storm development, as there is plenty
of CAPE to work with.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The main fcst concern is convective chances tonight and Wednesday.

A shortwave will move southeast through the Midwest, skirting
northeast of the region, but weakening the eastern extension of an
upper level ridge that is in place right now. 12Z raobs from Topeka
and Springfield, MO while very unstable, were a bit capped as
well. Will need to watch to see if convergence and sfc heating can
break the cap as far west as northern mo and ne ks toward 5-7 pm.

A wide variety of mesoscale and global model guidance exists. Some
guidance develops storms late this afternoon along a sfc front
from northeast KS east into MO. Corfidi vectors would take this area
of storms south, maybe even a bit west of south this evening. The
12z wrf-nmm is very aggressive with scenario. Given the
strong instability and progged high sfc-600mb theta-e
differentials (close to 30 deg C), if the storms do develop there
will be a severe storm wind risk. Will continue to highlight the
northern cwfa as having the best overall chance for severe storms.
As far as pops, will probably have the highest chances over the
northeastern cwfa where weaker capping exists.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Tough call based on what happens with
convection late today and tonight. In general will have a synoptic
sfc front dropping south into the area and will keep chances for
showers/storm going Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in from the
north and northeast Wednesday night.

Heat advisory: Based on the current fcst, do not see a need to
extend the ongoing heat advisory for our western counties past
today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

We should see a bit of a cool down for Thursday behind the front,
particularly over the eastern cwfa as high pressure moves into
Missouri and the Midwest. The eastern extension of the western
U.S. ridge reasserts itself with warmer temperatures again Fri and
Sat. Another shortwave is expected to open up and move southeast
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Sunday pushing another
cold front into the area with chances for thunderstorms. Cool and
dry weather is then expected Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The flight forecast looks to be fairly good for the Ozarks region.
The only glitch would be if storms can develop on a weak cold
front moving south towards the region. A strong cap over the area
will likely limit the chance for storms, but have included
VCTS/VCSH as models continue to show some development with the
front. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 221956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The main fcst concern is convective chances tonight and Wednesday.

A shortwave will move southeast through the Midwest, skirting
northeast of the region, but weakening the eastern extension of an
upper level ridge that is in place right now. 12Z raobs from Topeka
and Springfield, MO while very unstable, were a bit capped as
well. Will need to watch to see if convergence and sfc heating can
break the cap as far west as northern mo and ne ks toward 5-7 pm.

A wide variety of mesoscale and global model guidance exists. Some
guidance develops storms late this afternoon along a sfc front
from northeast KS east into MO. Corfidi vectors would take this area
of storms south, maybe even a bit west of south this evening. The
12z wrf-nmm is very aggressive with scenario. Given the
strong instability and progged high sfc-600mb theta-e
differentials (close to 30 deg C), if the storms do develop there
will be a severe storm wind risk. Will continue to highlight the
northern cwfa as having the best overall chance for severe storms.
As far as pops, will probably have the highest chances over the
northeastern cwfa where weaker capping exists.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Tough call based on what happens with
convection late today and tonight. In general will have a synoptic
sfc front dropping south into the area and will keep chances for
showers/storm going Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in from the
north and northeast Wednesday night.

Heat advisory: Based on the current fcst, do not see a need to
extend the ongoing heat advisory for our western counties past
today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

We should see a bit of a cool down for Thursday behind the front,
particularly over the eastern cwfa as high pressure moves into
Missouri and the Midwest. The eastern extension of the western
U.S. ridge reasserts itself with warmer temperatures again Fri and
Sat. Another shortwave is expected to open up and move southeast
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Sunday pushing another
cold front into the area with chances for thunderstorms. Cool and
dry weather is then expected Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon
and into the evening hours tonight with a light south-southwest
wind. Concern then turns to convective potential late tonight as
cold front approaches the area from the north. Various MESO-models
indicating at least scattered storms ahead of the boundary after
06z. Confidence that any of these storms will impact the terminal
sites not high enough yet to include more than a prob30 group. If
storms do impact the terminals, gusty winds and a drop to MVFR or
IFR conditions will be possible. winds look to switch to a more
northerly direction around 12Z as front slowly sags across the
terminal sites, but speeds will remain below 12 knots outside of
storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding









000
FXUS63 KSGF 221956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The main fcst concern is convective chances tonight and Wednesday.

A shortwave will move southeast through the Midwest, skirting
northeast of the region, but weakening the eastern extension of an
upper level ridge that is in place right now. 12Z raobs from Topeka
and Springfield, MO while very unstable, were a bit capped as
well. Will need to watch to see if convergence and sfc heating can
break the cap as far west as northern mo and ne ks toward 5-7 pm.

A wide variety of mesoscale and global model guidance exists. Some
guidance develops storms late this afternoon along a sfc front
from northeast KS east into MO. Corfidi vectors would take this area
of storms south, maybe even a bit west of south this evening. The
12z wrf-nmm is very aggressive with scenario. Given the
strong instability and progged high sfc-600mb theta-e
differentials (close to 30 deg C), if the storms do develop there
will be a severe storm wind risk. Will continue to highlight the
northern cwfa as having the best overall chance for severe storms.
As far as pops, will probably have the highest chances over the
northeastern cwfa where weaker capping exists.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Tough call based on what happens with
convection late today and tonight. In general will have a synoptic
sfc front dropping south into the area and will keep chances for
showers/storm going Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in from the
north and northeast Wednesday night.

Heat advisory: Based on the current fcst, do not see a need to
extend the ongoing heat advisory for our western counties past
today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

We should see a bit of a cool down for Thursday behind the front,
particularly over the eastern cwfa as high pressure moves into
Missouri and the Midwest. The eastern extension of the western
U.S. ridge reasserts itself with warmer temperatures again Fri and
Sat. Another shortwave is expected to open up and move southeast
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Sunday pushing another
cold front into the area with chances for thunderstorms. Cool and
dry weather is then expected Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon
and into the evening hours tonight with a light south-southwest
wind. Concern then turns to convective potential late tonight as
cold front approaches the area from the north. Various MESO-models
indicating at least scattered storms ahead of the boundary after
06z. Confidence that any of these storms will impact the terminal
sites not high enough yet to include more than a prob30 group. If
storms do impact the terminals, gusty winds and a drop to MVFR or
IFR conditions will be possible. winds look to switch to a more
northerly direction around 12Z as front slowly sags across the
terminal sites, but speeds will remain below 12 knots outside of
storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding










000
FXUS63 KSGF 221733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Two main forecast challenges are featured over the next 36 hours.
The first being our first heat advisory of the season for extreme
southeastern Kansas and portions of central Missouri. The second
is the potential for thunderstorms late this evening through
Wednesday.

The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast for today. The hottest day of the season so far is
expected from both a temperature and heat index perspective.
Hottest areas will be the Osage Plains of extreme southeastern
Kansas and portions of west central and central Missouri.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s will result in heat index values around 105 degrees
for several hours. The going heat advisory is well placed with no
need for any alterations. For areas along the Ozark Plateau and
points to the southeast, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

A cold front is currently moving through portions of the plains
states and upper Midwest. This front will continue to steadily
slide southeastward with time today, and become a focus for
thunderstorm development this evening for areas near the MO/IA
state line. How these storms end up behaving will have
consequences on our chances for rain later this evening and well
into Wednesday. Several models support this thunderstorm activity
organizing into a linear system. System motion vectors (both
regular and forward propagating) are southerly. If a cold pool can
develop, this system could accelerate south at a decent clip. Much
will be dictated by mesoscale subtleties, and there is some
variance with the short range models as to just exactly when and
where this system will begin diving south. Bottom line, chances
for showers and storms look a bit better for much of the region
during the overnight hours, though we will have to keep an eye on
the evolution of storms to our north before better honing the
risk.

Will have to keep a close eye on how convection develops and
congeals this evening. There will be ample MUCAPE available to
this activity, with low level theta-e differences in the high 20s
this evening across our central Missouri counties. As a result, a
limited risk for severe winds is supported for areas along/north
of the Highway 54 corridor.

Heading into Wednesday, much will depend on how convection tonight
behaves. The cold pool associated with the convection may very
well become the effective cold front. Have maintained decent
chance PoPs for much of the area through Wednesday morning,
shifting south during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

After a brief respite from the heat Wednesday night and Thursday,
Friday through the weekend looks like typical July weather as high
pressure aloft builds back over the region. There will be a few
ridge riding shortwaves from time to time that will bring
intermittent chances for showers/storms, though most will remain
dry. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July, highs a
few degrees either side of 90 and lows in the 70s. The 00z suite
of model output continues to suggest yet another amplification of
the upper level pattern heading into next week. There is agreement
that another shot of cool air will spread into the eastern half of
the U.S. This would knock highs back to around 80 with lows in the
60s...and potentially cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon
and into the evening hours tonight with a light south-southwest
wind. Concern then turns to convective potential late tonight as
cold front approaches the area from the north. Various MESO-models
indicating at least scattered storms ahead of the boundary after
06z. Confidence that any of these storms will impact the terminal
sites not high enough yet to include more than a prob30 group. If
storms do impact the terminals, gusty winds and a drop to MVFR or
IFR conditions will be possible. winds look to switch to a more
northerly direction around 12Z as front slowly sags across the
terminal sites, but speeds will remain below 12 knots outside of
storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Raberding








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Two main forecast challenges are featured over the next 36 hours.
The first being our first heat advisory of the season for extreme
southeastern Kansas and portions of central Missouri. The second
is the potential for thunderstorms late this evening through
Wednesday.

The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast for today. The hottest day of the season so far is
expected from both a temperature and heat index perspective.
Hottest areas will be the Osage Plains of extreme southeastern
Kansas and portions of west central and central Missouri.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s will result in heat index values around 105 degrees
for several hours. The going heat advisory is well placed with no
need for any alterations. For areas along the Ozark Plateau and
points to the southeast, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

A cold front is currently moving through portions of the plains
states and upper Midwest. This front will continue to steadily
slide southeastward with time today, and become a focus for
thunderstorm development this evening for areas near the MO/IA
state line. How these storms end up behaving will have
consequences on our chances for rain later this evening and well
into Wednesday. Several models support this thunderstorm activity
organizing into a linear system. System motion vectors (both
regular and forward propagating) are southerly. If a cold pool can
develop, this system could accelerate south at a decent clip. Much
will be dictated by mesoscale subtleties, and there is some
variance with the short range models as to just exactly when and
where this system will begin diving south. Bottom line, chances
for showers and storms look a bit better for much of the region
during the overnight hours, though we will have to keep an eye on
the evolution of storms to our north before better honing the
risk.

Will have to keep a close eye on how convection develops and
congeals this evening. There will be ample MUCAPE available to
this activity, with low level theta-e differences in the high 20s
this evening across our central Missouri counties. As a result, a
limited risk for severe winds is supported for areas along/north
of the Highway 54 corridor.

Heading into Wednesday, much will depend on how convection tonight
behaves. The cold pool associated with the convection may very
well become the effective cold front. Have maintained decent
chance PoPs for much of the area through Wednesday morning,
shifting south during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

After a brief respite from the heat Wednesday night and Thursday,
Friday through the weekend looks like typical July weather as high
pressure aloft builds back over the region. There will be a few
ridge riding shortwaves from time to time that will bring
intermittent chances for showers/storms, though most will remain
dry. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July, highs a
few degrees either side of 90 and lows in the 70s. The 00z suite
of model output continues to suggest yet another amplification of
the upper level pattern heading into next week. There is agreement
that another shot of cool air will spread into the eastern half of
the U.S. This would knock highs back to around 80 with lows in the
60s...and potentially cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon
and into the evening hours tonight with a light south-southwest
wind. Concern then turns to convective potential late tonight as
cold front approaches the area from the north. Various MESO-models
indicating at least scattered storms ahead of the boundary after
06z. Confidence that any of these storms will impact the terminal
sites not high enough yet to include more than a prob30 group. If
storms do impact the terminals, gusty winds and a drop to MVFR or
IFR conditions will be possible. winds look to switch to a more
northerly direction around 12Z as front slowly sags across the
terminal sites, but speeds will remain below 12 knots outside of
storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Raberding







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