000
FXUS63 KSGF 231953
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 8OS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM MCS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KSGF 231712
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.
LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM MCS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KSGF 231052
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.
LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KT.
AFTER 07Z TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE JLN TERMINAL AREA. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATED A INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS TSRA POTENTIAL ATTM IS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION IN THE TAF. IF
CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL IN TSRA INCREASES...LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE THIS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL
000
FXUS63 KSGF 230754
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.
LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT
MORE SO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS63 KSGF 230529
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG IN SPOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND MAY BRING
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT
MORE SO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS63 KSGF 222330
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG IN SPOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND MAY BRING
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET BUT DEVELOP AGAIN
THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT THEN RESUME FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS63 KSGF 221952
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG IN SPOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND MAY BRING
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SOME STRATOCU HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND COULD SEE
SOME CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 21-22Z WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KSGF 221703
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND PROFILER
NETWORK DEPICTED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH HAS TOUCHED
OFF A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OPENS UP AND
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICT ADDITIONAL LOBES OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. FIRST
OFF...THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE POSITION OF
THE MEAN LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS AND A GLANCE AT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
PLOTS INDICATES THAT THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO RECEIVE MCS ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 20 TO 30
POPS BEYOND THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SOME STRATOCU HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND COULD SEE
SOME CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 21-22Z WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KSGF 221125
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND PROFILER
NETWORK DEPICTED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH HAS TOUCHED
OFF A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OPENS UP AND
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICT ADDITIONAL LOBES OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. FIRST
OFF...THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE POSITION OF
THE MEAN LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS AND A GLANCE AT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
PLOTS INDICATES THAT THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO RECEIVE MCS ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 20 TO 30
POPS BEYOND THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...RESULTING IN
BREEZY WEST WINDS FROM MID MORNING UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL
000
FXUS63 KSGF 220732
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
232 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND PROFILER
NETWORK DEPICTED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH HAS TOUCHED
OFF A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OPENS UP AND
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICT ADDITIONAL LOBES OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. FIRST
OFF...THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE POSITION OF
THE MEAN LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS AND A GLANCE AT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
PLOTS INDICATES THAT THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO RECEIVE MCS ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 20 TO 30
POPS BEYOND THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT BBG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
OTHERWISE SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF GROUND
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. WEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TODAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...GAGAN
000
FXUS63 KSGF 220510
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH ONE AREA PUSHING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND ANOTHER
PUSHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS IS LIMITING HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE AREA WAS ALSO
WORKED OVER FROM THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING AND
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT OF THESE...INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE WEAKER
INSTABILITY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH.THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER NORTHEASTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING
OPENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES BUILDS SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS TO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA
BR FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST...THEN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA UNDER FAIR SKIES
AND NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATER MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ALIGNING ON A LOUISIANA TO MINNESOTA AXIS
BY MONDAY MORNING...LOSING AMPLIFICATION SOMEWHAT AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THE ECMWF TENDS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH MODELS DO DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK BUT PROGRESSIVE
DISTURBANCES (RIDGE RUNNERS) TRANSITING THE RIDGE FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KICK OFF INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF VALUES TO RANGE
FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FLOW...CAPE
VALUES AND ANY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THESE
AREAS.
TOOK A LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND AND BELIEVE
WHILE WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. PARTICULARLY...UPPER LEVEL AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IS WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE AND ANY SHOT WAVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER WEAK. BOTH
MOST UNSTABLE AND SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE VALUES ARE
AMPLE...GENERALLY IN THE 1500J/KG TO 2500J/KG RANGE...BUT ZERO TO
SIX KM BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK...IN THE 20 TO 30
KT RANGE.
SOME RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE ON TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...PLACING THE CWA IN
A STEADY AND WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT BBG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
OTHERWISE SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF GROUND
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. WEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TODAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...COLUCCI
AVIATION...GAGAN
000
FXUS63 KSGF 220048
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
748 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO
TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH ONLY A WANING
SHIELD OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HAVE CUT POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...FOCUSING HIGHER CHANCE VALUES FROM BRANSON TO SALEM. IN
ADDITION...INSTABILITY HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HAVE DEEMPHASIZED THE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDER AND WILL
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS RAINFALL WISE OVERNIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/VORT MAX PUSHES EAST OUT OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY DEVELOPING RADAR RETURNS TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH AND REFINE THE FORECAST FURTHER IF NEEDED.
AN INTERESTING FEATURE THAT HAS POPPED UP IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO
IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEHIND THE FEATURE WINDS ARE JUST AS GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
COMMON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
MESOLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN/MOVE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH ONE AREA PUSHING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND ANOTHER
PUSHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS IS LIMITING HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE AREA WAS ALSO
WORKED OVER FROM THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING AND
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT OF THESE...INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE WEAKER
INSTABILITY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH.THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER NORTHEASTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING
OPENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES BUILDS SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS TO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA
BR FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST...THEN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA UNDER FAIR SKIES
AND NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATER MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ALIGNING ON A LOUISIANA TO MINNESOTA AXIS
BY MONDAY MORNING...LOSING AMPLIFICATION SOMEWHAT AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THE ECMWF TENDS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH MODELS DO DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK BUT PROGRESSIVE
DISTURBANCES (RIDGE RUNNERS) TRANSITING THE RIDGE FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KICK OFF INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF VALUES TO RANGE
FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FLOW...CAPE
VALUES AND ANY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THESE
AREAS.
TOOK A LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND AND BELIEVE
WHILE WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. PARTICULARLY...UPPER LEVEL AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IS WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE AND ANY SHOT WAVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER WEAK. BOTH
MOST UNSTABLE AND SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE VALUES ARE
AMPLE...GENERALLY IN THE 1500J/KG TO 2500J/KG RANGE...BUT ZERO TO
SIX KM BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK...IN THE 20 TO 30
KT RANGE.
SOME RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE ON TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...PLACING THE CWA IN
A STEADY AND WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AS DISCUSSED IN THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ABOVE...A MESOLOW WILL
ALTER WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE THE
TEXT ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED GROUND FOG...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...COLUCCI
AVIATION...GAGAN
000
FXUS63 KSGF 211945
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH ONE AREA PUSHING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND ANOTHER
PUSHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS IS LIMITING HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE AREA WAS ALSO
WORKED OVER FROM THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING AND
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT OF THESE...INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE WEAKER
INSTABILITY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH.THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER NORTHEASTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING
OPENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES BUILDS SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS TO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA
BR FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST...THEN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA UNDER FAIR SKIES
AND NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATER MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ALIGNING ON A LOUISIANA TO MINNESOTA AXIS
BY MONDAY MORNING...LOSING AMPLIFICATION SOMEWHAT AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THE ECMWF TENDS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH MODELS DO DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK BUT PROGRESSIVE
DISTURBANCES (RIDGE RUNNERS) TRANSITING THE RIDGE FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KICK OFF INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF VALUES TO RANGE
FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FLOW...CAPE
VALUES AND ANY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THESE
AREAS.
TOOK A LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND AND BELIEVE
WHILE WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. PARTICULARLY...UPPER LEVEL AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IS WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE AND ANY SHOT WAVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER WEAK. BOTH
MOST UNSTABLE AND SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE VALUES ARE
AMPLE...GENERALLY IN THE 1500J/KG TO 2500J/KG RANGE...BUT ZERO TO
SIX KM BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK...IN THE 20 TO 30
KT RANGE.
SOME RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE ON TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...PLACING THE CWA IN
A STEADY AND WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME CONVECTION AFFECTING THE BBG SITE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE HOWEVER
BEST PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST POINTS.
CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE LATE AND MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS THE CLEARING BEGINS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...COLUCCI
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KSGF 211643
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AFTER A ROUGH EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS RATHER UNEVENTFUL.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS CONVECTION EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THUS...WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A SPORADIC UPDRAFT OR
TWO DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
WITH DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THE
EVENING CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT MUCAPE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
HEADING INTO TODAY...THAT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LOWER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 400-900 J/KG RANGE. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY COULD
SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER. A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
AS FOR HYDRO...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED NEARLY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
THUS...A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MAIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH THAT PASSING FRONT.
THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS THEN BRING A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN CORN BELT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY COME IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO TOUCH
OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN BRING A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. FIRST
OFF...GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
ITEM WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME CONVECTION AFFECTING THE BBG SITE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE HOWEVER
BEST PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST POINTS.
CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE LATE AND MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS THE CLEARING BEGINS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KSGF 211131
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AFTER A ROUGH EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS RATHER UNEVENTFUL.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS CONVECTION EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THUS...WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A SPORADIC UPDRAFT OR
TWO DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
WITH DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THE
EVENING CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT MUCAPE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
HEADING INTO TODAY...THAT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LOWER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 400-900 J/KG RANGE. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY COULD
SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER. A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
AS FOR HYDRO...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED NEARLY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
THUS...A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MAIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH THAT PASSING FRONT.
THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS THEN BRING A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN CORN BELT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY COME IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO TOUCH
OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN BRING A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. FIRST
OFF...GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
ITEM WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT SGF AND
BBG. THINK THE FRONT MAY BE JUST SOUTH ENOUGH AT JLN TO AVOID
WIDESPREAD TSRA COVERAGE AT THE FIELD...AND THUS WILL ONLY INCLUDE
VCTS FOR NOW. MVFR AND BRIEF DROPS TO IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY
TSRA.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. FOG AND
STRATUS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT SGF AND BBG...WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...JUST TOOK SGF TO MVFR AND
BBG TO IFR...BUT SOME POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR EVEN LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD FOG AND STRATUS BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL
000
FXUS63 KSGF 210848
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
348 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AFTER A ROUGH EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS RATHER UNEVENTFUL.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS CONVECTION EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THUS...WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A SPORADIC UPDRAFT OR
TWO DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
WITH DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THE
EVENING CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT MUCAPE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
HEADING INTO TODAY...THAT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LOWER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 400-900 J/KG RANGE. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY COULD
SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER. A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
AS FOR HYDRO...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED NEARLY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
THUS...A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MAIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH THAT PASSING FRONT.
THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS THEN BRING A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN CORN BELT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY COME IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO TOUCH
OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN BRING A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. FIRST
OFF...GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
ITEM WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WHILE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. WE
ARE THEN EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUD AND AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE ALSO COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO
GROUP TO IFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN
000
FXUS63 KSGF 210529
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN HAZARD POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL BE THAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS A
LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. IF COVERAGE INCREASES AND
COLD POOLS CONGEAL...THE MCS WOULD DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
SLOW SYSTEM MOTION WOULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IF
COVERAGE INCREASES DOWN THERE...IT MAY IMPEDE THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND SHIFT THE MAIN HEAVY RAINFALL RISK INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
WE HAVE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL AWAIT CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING ANY
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS.
OTHERWISE...WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW ELEVATED HAILERS IF WE CAN GET
A BIT MORE ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE MAINLY
EXPECTING SUB-SEVERE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.
CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WHILE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. WE
ARE THEN EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUD AND AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE ALSO COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO
GROUP TO IFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ070-071-
079>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ101.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN
000
FXUS63 KSGF 210234
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
934 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LARGE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED CONSISTENT
REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH AS WELL AS TREE
DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.
EXPECTATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE FOR THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE SIGNIFICANT WIND RISK. PLENTY OF
MLCAPE/MUCAPE EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SUPPORTS A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY SEGMENTS
THAT BOW OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS
QUITE THE CHALLENGE. THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST...THUS
SOME RECHARGING OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT A RECHARGE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR WILL BE PRONE TO SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE EXISTING LINE WILL PIVOT AND
SLOW NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS A RESULT...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING RISK IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW
FRISKY CELLS CAPABLE OF PENNY HAIL...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THIS MAIN LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.
CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
INTO OF STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
000
FXUS63 KSGF 202341
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION UPDATE ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE
ARE DEVELOPING INTO LINE SEGMENTS.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AS A LOW LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS STILL RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS ML-
CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF
THE STORMS. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 25 TO 30KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A STRONG
DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WITH ANY
BOWING SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE LINE SEGMENTS THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRAIGHT LINE WIND RISK 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE 35 TO 45KT. ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT BOW TO THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WOULD SUPPORT BALANCE AND MESOVORTICES DEVELOPMENT AND
TORNADOES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LINE SURGES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLAUR IN NATURE.
CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
INTO OF STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
| 
