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000
FXUS63 KSGF 181649
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181649
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise









000
FXUS63 KSGF 180749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currrently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance/shortwave
over se KS/eastern OK will move through the taf sites over the next few
hours. Extensive mid level clouds will clear with it from west to
east. Weak sfc high pressure will remain in place just west-north
the region with light winds and a clearing sky. Some fog is
already developing over se KS where the sky has cleared, and expect
that trend to continue. Will have some mvfr cat fog at all taf
sites and a tempo group of brief ifr cat fog toward 12z/sunrise at
KJLN where the sky will clear out earlier.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 180453
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Mid and high level moisture has been on the increase throughout
the day as a series of shortwaves move northeastward out of the
central Plains and clip the northwest portion of the area. Heading
into this evening, the main trough will shift eastward into the
Midwest and the narrow band of light showers that has stayed just
northwest of the area today will begin to move. Unfortunately, the
combination of weakening lift and meager moisture will result in
this band of rain shrinking with time. At this point will only
mention slight to low end chance for showers. This activity may
end up just being sprinkles by the mid to late evening hours.

Overnight, any lingering light showers/sprinkles will exit or
dissipate and skies will gradually clear from northwest to
southeast. Clearing isn`t completely expected until Friday, so low
temperatures will be coldest (mid/upper 30s) in the northwest
third or so of the outlook area. Friday looks to be a great day
with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Some better news for the upcoming weekend as the system once
forecast to enter the area on Sunday continues to get pushed back
in timing. The shortwave is still there, it`s just weaker and
slower. As a result, the weekend will be quite nice. Temperatures
will be above average, well in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.
There remains uncertainty with just how soon rain chances will
build into the area Sunday afternoon. With the main wave not
expected to enter the region until Monday, rain chances for Sunday
afternoon have been confined to the western half (or so) of the
area. Confidence in rain on Sunday, though, is shaky at this
time. The bottom line is that there will be a risk for showers
and a few storms from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon,
with the best chances coming later Sunday night through Monday.

After a brief return to normal temperatures on Monday (with
associated rain/clouds), a stretch of above average temperatures
will begin Tuesday and last through much of next week as high
pressure aloft builds into the region. Highs may even try and push
the 80s degree mark by Wednesday and possibly even Thursday.
Models have a strong storm system hanging off to our west toward
the end of next week that will eventually bring us a chance for
showers and storms. Have introduced chance PoPs for Thursday,
though it`s possible this system is delayed in timing a bit more.
Something to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs and forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance/shortwave
over se KS/eastern OK will move through the taf sites over the next few
hours. Extensive mid level clouds will clear with it from west to
east. Weak sfc high pressure will remain in place just west-north
the region with light winds and a clearing sky. Some fog is
already developing over se KS where the sky has cleared, and expect
that trend to continue. Will have some mvfr cat fog at all taf
sites and a tempo group of brief ifr cat fog toward 12z/sunrise at
KJLN where the sky will clear out earlier.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 172346
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Mid and high level moisture has been on the increase throughout
the day as a series of shortwaves move northeastward out of the
central Plains and clip the northwest portion of the area. Heading
into this evening, the main trough will shift eastward into the
Midwest and the narrow band of light showers that has stayed just
northwest of the area today will begin to move. Unfortunately, the
combination of weakening lift and meager moisture will result in
this band of rain shrinking with time. At this point will only
mention slight to low end chance for showers. This activity may
end up just being sprinkles by the mid to late evening hours.

Overnight, any lingering light showers/sprinkles will exit or
dissipate and skies will gradually clear from northwest to
southeast. Clearing isn`t completely expected until Friday, so low
temperatures will be coldest (mid/upper 30s) in the northwest
third or so of the outlook area. Friday looks to be a great day
with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Some better news for the upcoming weekend as the system once
forecast to enter the area on Sunday continues to get pushed back
in timing. The shortwave is still there, it`s just weaker and
slower. As a result, the weekend will be quite nice. Temperatures
will be above average, well in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.
There remains uncertainty with just how soon rain chances will
build into the area Sunday afternoon. With the main wave not
expected to enter the region until Monday, rain chances for Sunday
afternoon have been confined to the western half (or so) of the
area. Confidence in rain on Sunday, though, is shaky at this
time. The bottom line is that there will be a risk for showers
and a few storms from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon,
with the best chances coming later Sunday night through Monday.

After a brief return to normal temperatures on Monday (with
associated rain/clouds), a stretch of above average temperatures
will begin Tuesday and last through much of next week as high
pressure aloft builds into the region. Highs may even try and push
the 80s degree mark by Wednesday and possibly even Thursday.
Models have a strong storm system hanging off to our west toward
the end of next week that will eventually bring us a chance for
showers and storms. Have introduced chance PoPs for Thursday,
though it`s possible this system is delayed in timing a bit more.
Something to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs and forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance/shortwave
over KS/OK will move through the taf sites from 06z-12z. Extensive
mid level clouds, and virga/very light rain, will occur early in
the taf period with vfr ceilings. Weak sfc high pressure will
build into and just west-north the region toward 12z with light
winds and a clearing sky. Some light fog may develop with weak low
level winds and nighttime sfc cooling toward 12z and will watch
trends. For now will just have a brief period of mvfr visibility
at all sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 172346
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Mid and high level moisture has been on the increase throughout
the day as a series of shortwaves move northeastward out of the
central Plains and clip the northwest portion of the area. Heading
into this evening, the main trough will shift eastward into the
Midwest and the narrow band of light showers that has stayed just
northwest of the area today will begin to move. Unfortunately, the
combination of weakening lift and meager moisture will result in
this band of rain shrinking with time. At this point will only
mention slight to low end chance for showers. This activity may
end up just being sprinkles by the mid to late evening hours.

Overnight, any lingering light showers/sprinkles will exit or
dissipate and skies will gradually clear from northwest to
southeast. Clearing isn`t completely expected until Friday, so low
temperatures will be coldest (mid/upper 30s) in the northwest
third or so of the outlook area. Friday looks to be a great day
with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Some better news for the upcoming weekend as the system once
forecast to enter the area on Sunday continues to get pushed back
in timing. The shortwave is still there, it`s just weaker and
slower. As a result, the weekend will be quite nice. Temperatures
will be above average, well in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.
There remains uncertainty with just how soon rain chances will
build into the area Sunday afternoon. With the main wave not
expected to enter the region until Monday, rain chances for Sunday
afternoon have been confined to the western half (or so) of the
area. Confidence in rain on Sunday, though, is shaky at this
time. The bottom line is that there will be a risk for showers
and a few storms from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon,
with the best chances coming later Sunday night through Monday.

After a brief return to normal temperatures on Monday (with
associated rain/clouds), a stretch of above average temperatures
will begin Tuesday and last through much of next week as high
pressure aloft builds into the region. Highs may even try and push
the 80s degree mark by Wednesday and possibly even Thursday.
Models have a strong storm system hanging off to our west toward
the end of next week that will eventually bring us a chance for
showers and storms. Have introduced chance PoPs for Thursday,
though it`s possible this system is delayed in timing a bit more.
Something to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs and forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance/shortwave
over KS/OK will move through the taf sites from 06z-12z. Extensive
mid level clouds, and virga/very light rain, will occur early in
the taf period with vfr ceilings. Weak sfc high pressure will
build into and just west-north the region toward 12z with light
winds and a clearing sky. Some light fog may develop with weak low
level winds and nighttime sfc cooling toward 12z and will watch
trends. For now will just have a brief period of mvfr visibility
at all sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 172011
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Mid and high level moisture has been on the increase throughout
the day as a series of shortwaves move northeastward out of the
central Plains and clip the northwest portion of the area. Heading
into this evening, the main trough will shift eastward into the
Midwest and the narrow band of light showers that has stayed just
northwest of the area today will begin to move. Unfortunately, the
combination of weakening lift and meager moisture will result in
this band of rain shrinking with time. At this point will only
mention slight to low end chance for showers. This activity may
end up just being sprinkles by the mid to late evening hours.

Overnight, any lingering light showers/sprinkles will exit or
dissipate and skies will gradually clear from northwest to
southeast. Clearing isn`t completely expected until Friday, so low
temperatures will be coldest (mid/upper 30s) in the northwest
third or so of the outlook area. Friday looks to be a great day
with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Some better news for the upcoming weekend as the system once
forecast to enter the area on Sunday continues to get pushed back
in timing. The shortwave is still there, it`s just weaker and
slower. As a result, the weekend will be quite nice. Temperatures
will be above average, well in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.
There remains uncertainty with just how soon rain chances will
build into the area Sunday afternoon. With the main wave not
expected to enter the region until Monday, rain chances for Sunday
afternoon have been confined to the western half (or so) of the
area. Confidence in rain on Sunday, though, is shaky at this
time. The bottom line is that there will be a risk for showers
and a few storms from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon,
with the best chances coming later Sunday night through Monday.

After a brief return to normal temperatures on Monday (with
associated rain/clouds), a stretch of above average temperatures
will begin Tuesday and last through much of next week as high
pressure aloft builds into the region. Highs may even try and push
the 80s degree mark by Wednesday and possibly even Thursday.
Models have a strong storm system hanging off to our west toward
the end of next week that will eventually bring us a chance for
showers and storms. Have introduced chance PoPs for Thursday,
though it`s possible this system is delayed in timing a bit more.
Something to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs and forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Light winds and high clouds will remain over the region through
the forecast period despite a weak cold front that will move
through the region later today. Ceilings will remain VFR with a
brief period of MVFR visibilities expected around sunrise Friday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 172011
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Mid and high level moisture has been on the increase throughout
the day as a series of shortwaves move northeastward out of the
central Plains and clip the northwest portion of the area. Heading
into this evening, the main trough will shift eastward into the
Midwest and the narrow band of light showers that has stayed just
northwest of the area today will begin to move. Unfortunately, the
combination of weakening lift and meager moisture will result in
this band of rain shrinking with time. At this point will only
mention slight to low end chance for showers. This activity may
end up just being sprinkles by the mid to late evening hours.

Overnight, any lingering light showers/sprinkles will exit or
dissipate and skies will gradually clear from northwest to
southeast. Clearing isn`t completely expected until Friday, so low
temperatures will be coldest (mid/upper 30s) in the northwest
third or so of the outlook area. Friday looks to be a great day
with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Some better news for the upcoming weekend as the system once
forecast to enter the area on Sunday continues to get pushed back
in timing. The shortwave is still there, it`s just weaker and
slower. As a result, the weekend will be quite nice. Temperatures
will be above average, well in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.
There remains uncertainty with just how soon rain chances will
build into the area Sunday afternoon. With the main wave not
expected to enter the region until Monday, rain chances for Sunday
afternoon have been confined to the western half (or so) of the
area. Confidence in rain on Sunday, though, is shaky at this
time. The bottom line is that there will be a risk for showers
and a few storms from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon,
with the best chances coming later Sunday night through Monday.

After a brief return to normal temperatures on Monday (with
associated rain/clouds), a stretch of above average temperatures
will begin Tuesday and last through much of next week as high
pressure aloft builds into the region. Highs may even try and push
the 80s degree mark by Wednesday and possibly even Thursday.
Models have a strong storm system hanging off to our west toward
the end of next week that will eventually bring us a chance for
showers and storms. Have introduced chance PoPs for Thursday,
though it`s possible this system is delayed in timing a bit more.
Something to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs and forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Light winds and high clouds will remain over the region through
the forecast period despite a weak cold front that will move
through the region later today. Ceilings will remain VFR with a
brief period of MVFR visibilities expected around sunrise Friday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front extending from northeastern Missouri into western
Oklahoma early this morning will sag southeastward into southern
Missouri today. Meanwhile a mid level shortwave trough will track
across the Plains toward the Ozarks.

A cooler airmass will seep southward into southeastern Kansas and
central Missouri during the day as winds shift to the north behind
the front. This will make forecasting maximum temperatures in that
area a bit tricky.

Clouds will increase from the west during the day as the
shortwave approaches. Moisture availability will be limited with
this system which will limit precipitation production. Expect some
areas of light rain or sprinkles to develop from the west later
this morning into the evening. However the coverage of rain will
only decrease as the system moves across the Ozarks tonight. While
many locations may some sprinkles measurable rainfall will be hard
to come by.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Warmer temperatures will return Friday into Saturday as an upper
level ridge builds over the region and southerly winds return.
High temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 Friday and
well into the 70s on Saturday.

The next upper level trough tracking through the progressive
pattern will approach from the west on Sunday. More substantial
moisture return will occur ahead of this system with surface
dew points progged to rise into the 50s if not lower 60s on Sunday.
This will yield at least modest instability and a resulting chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The chance of showers will continue into Monday as the trough
makes it way across the area.

Even more significant warming is expected next week as a broad
upper level ridge builds across the central U.S. Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Light winds and high clouds will remain over the region through
the forecast period despite a weak cold front that will move
through the region later today. Ceilings will remain VFR with a
brief period of MVFR visibilities expected around sunrise Friday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front extending from northeastern Missouri into western
Oklahoma early this morning will sag southeastward into southern
Missouri today. Meanwhile a mid level shortwave trough will track
across the Plains toward the Ozarks.

A cooler airmass will seep southward into southeastern Kansas and
central Missouri during the day as winds shift to the north behind
the front. This will make forecasting maximum temperatures in that
area a bit tricky.

Clouds will increase from the west during the day as the
shortwave approaches. Moisture availability will be limited with
this system which will limit precipitation production. Expect some
areas of light rain or sprinkles to develop from the west later
this morning into the evening. However the coverage of rain will
only decrease as the system moves across the Ozarks tonight. While
many locations may some sprinkles measurable rainfall will be hard
to come by.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Warmer temperatures will return Friday into Saturday as an upper
level ridge builds over the region and southerly winds return.
High temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 Friday and
well into the 70s on Saturday.

The next upper level trough tracking through the progressive
pattern will approach from the west on Sunday. More substantial
moisture return will occur ahead of this system with surface
dew points progged to rise into the 50s if not lower 60s on Sunday.
This will yield at least modest instability and a resulting chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The chance of showers will continue into Monday as the trough
makes it way across the area.

Even more significant warming is expected next week as a broad
upper level ridge builds across the central U.S. Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Light winds and high clouds will remain over the region through
the forecast period despite a weak cold front that will move
through the region later today. Ceilings will remain VFR with a
brief period of MVFR visibilities expected around sunrise Friday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 171058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front extending from northeastern Missouri into western
Oklahoma early this morning will sag southeastward into southern
Missouri today. Meanwhile a mid level shortwave trough will track
across the Plains toward the Ozarks.

A cooler airmass will seep southward into southeastern Kansas and
central Missouri during the day as winds shift to the north behind
the front. This will make forecasting maximum temperatures in that
area a bit tricky.

Clouds will increase from the west during the day as the
shortwave approaches. Moisture availability will be limited with
this system which will limit precipitation production. Expect some
areas of light rain or sprinkles to develop from the west later
this morning into the evening. However the coverage of rain will
only decrease as the system moves across the Ozarks tonight. While
many locations may some sprinkles measurable rainfall will be hard
to come by.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Warmer temperatures will return Friday into Saturday as an upper
level ridge builds over the region and southerly winds return.
High temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 Friday and
well into the 70s on Saturday.

The next upper level trough tracking through the progressive
pattern will approach from the west on Sunday. More substantial
moisture return will occur ahead of this system with surface
dew points progged to rise into the 50s if not lower 60s on Sunday.
This will yield at least modest instability and a resulting chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The chance of showers will continue into Monday as the trough
makes it way across the area.

Even more significant warming is expected next week as a broad
upper level ridge builds across the central U.S. Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front will sag south
across southern Missouri today. Southeasterly winds will occur
ahead of the front, with winds shifting to the north behind the
front. Overall the winds will remain below 10kt both ahead and
behind the frontal passage.

Mid level clouds will increase today as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the region. A dry airmass is in place
in the low levels and will limit precipitation chances today to
just some scattered sprinkles at best.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front extending from northeastern Missouri into western
Oklahoma early this morning will sag southeastward into southern
Missouri today. Meanwhile a mid level shortwave trough will track
across the Plains toward the Ozarks.

A cooler airmass will seep southward into southeastern Kansas and
central Missouri during the day as winds shift to the north behind
the front. This will make forecasting maximum temperatures in that
area a bit tricky.

Clouds will increase from the west during the day as the
shortwave approaches. Moisture availability will be limited with
this system which will limit precipitation production. Expect some
areas of light rain or sprinkles to develop from the west later
this morning into the evening. However the coverage of rain will
only decrease as the system moves across the Ozarks tonight. While
many locations may some sprinkles measurable rainfall will be hard
to come by.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Warmer temperatures will return Friday into Saturday as an upper
level ridge builds over the region and southerly winds return.
High temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 Friday and
well into the 70s on Saturday.

The next upper level trough tracking through the progressive
pattern will approach from the west on Sunday. More substantial
moisture return will occur ahead of this system with surface
dew points progged to rise into the 50s if not lower 60s on Sunday.
This will yield at least modest instability and a resulting chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The chance of showers will continue into Monday as the trough
makes it way across the area.

Even more significant warming is expected next week as a broad
upper level ridge builds across the central U.S. Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front will sag south
across southern Missouri today. Southeasterly winds will occur
ahead of the front, with winds shifting to the north behind the
front. Overall the winds will remain below 10kt both ahead and
behind the frontal passage.

Mid level clouds will increase today as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the region. A dry airmass is in place
in the low levels and will limit precipitation chances today to
just some scattered sprinkles at best.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 170825
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front extending from northeastern Missouri into western
Oklahoma early this morning will sag southeastward into southern
Missouri today. Meanwhile a mid level shortwave trough will track
across the Plains toward the Ozarks.

A cooler airmass will seep southward into southeastern Kansas and
central Missouri during the day as winds shift to the north behind
the front. This will make forecasting maximum temperatures in that
area a bit tricky.

Clouds will increase from the west during the day as the
shortwave approaches. Moisture availability will be limited with
this system which will limit precipitation production. Expect some
areas of light rain or sprinkles to develop from the west later
this morning into the evening. However the coverage of rain will
only decrease as the system moves across the Ozarks tonight. While
many locations may some sprinkles measurable rainfall will be hard
to come by.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Warmer temperatures will return Friday into Saturday as an upper
level ridge builds over the region and southerly winds return.
High temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 Friday and
well into the 70s on Saturday.

The next upper level trough tracking through the progressive
pattern will approach from the west on Sunday. More substantial
moisture return will occur ahead of this system with surface
dew points progged to rise into the 50s if not lower 60s on Sunday.
This will yield at least modest instability and a resulting chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The chance of showers will continue into Monday as the trough
makes it way across the area.

Even more significant warming is expected next week as a broad
upper level ridge builds across the central U.S. Tuesday and
Wednesday.


&&



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs, a weak cold front will approach and
slowly move through the region toward the 15z-21z time frame. Dry
conditions in the lower levels should prevent anything other than
lowering vfr ceilings, especially after the frontal passage.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 170825
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front extending from northeastern Missouri into western
Oklahoma early this morning will sag southeastward into southern
Missouri today. Meanwhile a mid level shortwave trough will track
across the Plains toward the Ozarks.

A cooler airmass will seep southward into southeastern Kansas and
central Missouri during the day as winds shift to the north behind
the front. This will make forecasting maximum temperatures in that
area a bit tricky.

Clouds will increase from the west during the day as the
shortwave approaches. Moisture availability will be limited with
this system which will limit precipitation production. Expect some
areas of light rain or sprinkles to develop from the west later
this morning into the evening. However the coverage of rain will
only decrease as the system moves across the Ozarks tonight. While
many locations may some sprinkles measurable rainfall will be hard
to come by.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Warmer temperatures will return Friday into Saturday as an upper
level ridge builds over the region and southerly winds return.
High temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 Friday and
well into the 70s on Saturday.

The next upper level trough tracking through the progressive
pattern will approach from the west on Sunday. More substantial
moisture return will occur ahead of this system with surface
dew points progged to rise into the 50s if not lower 60s on Sunday.
This will yield at least modest instability and a resulting chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The chance of showers will continue into Monday as the trough
makes it way across the area.

Even more significant warming is expected next week as a broad
upper level ridge builds across the central U.S. Tuesday and
Wednesday.


&&



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs, a weak cold front will approach and
slowly move through the region toward the 15z-21z time frame. Dry
conditions in the lower levels should prevent anything other than
lowering vfr ceilings, especially after the frontal passage.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 170441
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Gusty winds will continue across the Ozarks into this evening.
After sunset, winds will begin to diminish as the surface
gradient weakens. Overnight temperature us will be a bit warmer
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.

The low pressure center over western Iowa and associated cold
front extending southwestward across Kansas and the OK/TX
panhandles will shift eastward into the forecast area on Thursday
with mainly post-frontal precipitation developing ahead of the
upper level trough through Thursday evening. Very dry lower
levels will take some time to saturate...so expect precipitation
amounts to remain on the lighter side...averaging around one
tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Once the main upper trough shifts east of the Ozarks on Thursday
night and Friday...we will see a warming trend and dry conditions
through Saturday as a lee side trough deepens over eastern
Colorado. A surface high will keep Gulf moisture south of our area
through Saturday before shifting east and allowing a decent fetch
of low level moisture to stream northward from the Texas Gulf
Coast on Sunday. The models may be bringing in precipitation a
little fast but think overall moisture availability will be better
with this system. Model soundings show some modest instability so
will include isolated thunder potential for early Sunday through
early Monday.

Another round of upper level ridging commences on Tuesday and
Wednesday with upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs, a weak cold front will approach and
slowly move through the region toward the 15z-21z time frame. Dry
conditions in the lower levels should prevent anything other than
lowering vfr ceilings, especially after the frontal passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TERRY
LONG TERM...TERRY
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 170441
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Gusty winds will continue across the Ozarks into this evening.
After sunset, winds will begin to diminish as the surface
gradient weakens. Overnight temperature us will be a bit warmer
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.

The low pressure center over western Iowa and associated cold
front extending southwestward across Kansas and the OK/TX
panhandles will shift eastward into the forecast area on Thursday
with mainly post-frontal precipitation developing ahead of the
upper level trough through Thursday evening. Very dry lower
levels will take some time to saturate...so expect precipitation
amounts to remain on the lighter side...averaging around one
tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Once the main upper trough shifts east of the Ozarks on Thursday
night and Friday...we will see a warming trend and dry conditions
through Saturday as a lee side trough deepens over eastern
Colorado. A surface high will keep Gulf moisture south of our area
through Saturday before shifting east and allowing a decent fetch
of low level moisture to stream northward from the Texas Gulf
Coast on Sunday. The models may be bringing in precipitation a
little fast but think overall moisture availability will be better
with this system. Model soundings show some modest instability so
will include isolated thunder potential for early Sunday through
early Monday.

Another round of upper level ridging commences on Tuesday and
Wednesday with upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs, a weak cold front will approach and
slowly move through the region toward the 15z-21z time frame. Dry
conditions in the lower levels should prevent anything other than
lowering vfr ceilings, especially after the frontal passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TERRY
LONG TERM...TERRY
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 162353
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Gusty winds will continue across the Ozarks into this evening.
After sunset, winds will begin to diminish as the surface
gradient weakens. Overnight temperature us will be a bit warmer
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.

The low pressure center over western Iowa and associated cold
front extending southwestward across Kansas and the OK/TX
panhandles will shift eastward into the forecast area on Thursday
with mainly post-frontal precipitation developing ahead of the
upper level trough through Thursday evening. Very dry lower
levels will take some time to saturate...so expect precipitation
amounts to remain on the lighter side...averaging around one
tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Once the main upper trough shifts east of the Ozarks on Thursday
night and Friday...we will see a warming trend and dry conditions
through Saturday as a lee side trough deepens over eastern
Colorado. A surface high will keep Gulf moisture south of our area
through Saturday before shifting east and allowing a decent fetch
of low level moisture to stream northward from the Texas Gulf
Coast on Sunday. The models may be bringing in precipitation a
little fast but think overall moisture availability will be better
with this system. Model soundings show some modest instability so
will include isolated thunder potential for early Sunday through
early Monday.

Another round of upper level ridging commences on Tuesday and
Wednesday with upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs, south winds will diminish with the loss of
sfc heating/mixing along with some weakening of the pressure
gradient over the next hour or two. A cold front will approach and
slowly move through the region toward the 15z-21z time frame late
in the taf period. Dry conditions in the lower levels should
prevent anything other than lowering vfr ceilings, especially
after the frontal passage.

&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TERRY
LONG TERM...TERRY
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GustY winds will continue across the Ozarks into this evening.
After sunset, winds will begin to diminish as the surface
gradient weakens. Overnight temperature us will be a bit warmer
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.

The low pressure center over western Iowa and associated cold
front extending southwestward across Kansas and the OK/TX
panhandles will shift eastward into the forecast area on Thursday
with mainly post-frontal precipitation developing ahead of the
upper level trough through Thursday evening. Very dry lower
levels will take some time to saturate...so expect precipitation
amounts to remain on the lighter side...averaging around one
tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Once the main upper trough shifts east of the Ozarks on Thursday
night and Friday...we will see a warming trend and dry conditions
through Saturday as a lee side trough deepens over eastern
Colorado. A surface high will keep Gulf moisture south of our area
through Saturday before shifting east and allowing a decent fetch
of low level moisture to stream northward from the Texas Gulf
Coast on Sunday. The models may be bringing in precipitation a
little fast but think overall moisture availability will be better
with this system. Model soundings show some modest instability so
will include isolated thunder potential for early Sunday through
early Monday.

Another round of upper level ridging commences on Tuesday and
Wednesday with upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy surface conditions will be the primary concern for aviators
as surface winds gust to 35-40mph. Winds will begin to diminish
after sunset with no flight impacts expected during the overnight
hours. ceilings and visibilities will remain VFR through the
forecast.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through 7 pm this
evening for southeastern Kansas into southwestern and central
Missouri.

southerly winds will continue to be 15 to 25 mph gusting to
up to 40 mph at times. This will combined with minimum relative
humidity values ranging from 25 to 35 percent will produce
significant fire weather concerns into early this evening.

After sunset winds will begin to weaken. Areas generally along
and north of I-44 will have the greatest risk for significant fire
weather conditions through 7 pm.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TERRY
LONG TERM...TERRY
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch











000
FXUS63 KSGF 162012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GustY winds will continue across the Ozarks into this evening.
After sunset, winds will begin to diminish as the surface
gradient weakens. Overnight temperature us will be a bit warmer
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.

The low pressure center over western Iowa and associated cold
front extending southwestward across Kansas and the OK/TX
panhandles will shift eastward into the forecast area on Thursday
with mainly post-frontal precipitation developing ahead of the
upper level trough through Thursday evening. Very dry lower
levels will take some time to saturate...so expect precipitation
amounts to remain on the lighter side...averaging around one
tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Once the main upper trough shifts east of the Ozarks on Thursday
night and Friday...we will see a warming trend and dry conditions
through Saturday as a lee side trough deepens over eastern
Colorado. A surface high will keep Gulf moisture south of our area
through Saturday before shifting east and allowing a decent fetch
of low level moisture to stream northward from the Texas Gulf
Coast on Sunday. The models may be bringing in precipitation a
little fast but think overall moisture availability will be better
with this system. Model soundings show some modest instability so
will include isolated thunder potential for early Sunday through
early Monday.

Another round of upper level ridging commences on Tuesday and
Wednesday with upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy surface conditions will be the primary concern for aviators
as surface winds gust to 35-40mph. Winds will begin to diminish
after sunset with no flight impacts expected during the overnight
hours. ceilings and visibilities will remain VFR through the
forecast.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through 7 pm this
evening for southeastern Kansas into southwestern and central
Missouri.

southerly winds will continue to be 15 to 25 mph gusting to
up to 40 mph at times. This will combined with minimum relative
humidity values ranging from 25 to 35 percent will produce
significant fire weather concerns into early this evening.

After sunset winds will begin to weaken. Areas generally along
and north of I-44 will have the greatest risk for significant fire
weather conditions through 7 pm.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TERRY
LONG TERM...TERRY
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch












000
FXUS63 KSGF 161814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
114 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Southeasterly winds had developed across the region overnight as
high pressure shifted to the east. These winds will increase today
and become more southerly as the pressure gradient tightens and
ahead of a developing front across the plains. Winds will gusts up
to around 35 mph at times across the Osage plains of southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. Wind speeds may approach wind
Advisory criteria during the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

Expect highs today to climb into the lower and middle 60s along
and north of the Ozark Plateau with cooler readings in the eastern
Ozarks.

The increasing wind...warmer temperatures and existing dry airmass
will result in a significant fire weather risk for portions of the
area. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The aforementioned front will sag southward into the area Thursday
while a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This will
bring an increase in clouds during the day. While lift associated
with this system will be sufficient for precipitation production
the availability of moisture will be limited. Expect scattered
light showers or sprinkles to move into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward into the Ozarks but likely decrease in coverage with
time. overall only light rainfall amounts are expected with this
system.

Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures will return Friday in
the wake of the exiting shortwave trough. The warming will
continue into Saturday with highs reaching or exceeding the 70
degree mark over much of the area.

The next shortwave trough tracking through a progressive upper
pattern will arrive late in the weekend bringing a chance rain and
perhaps some thunder on Sunday.

Dry weather and seasonable spring temperatures will return early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy surface conditions will be the primary concern for aviators
as surface winds gust to 35-40mph. Winds will begin to diminish
after sunset with no flight impacts expected during the overnight
hours. ceilings and visibilities will remain VFR through the
forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning has been issued from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and central Missouri from 11 am through 7 pm today.

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to around 35
mph at times combined with minimum relative humidity values
ranging 20 to 30 percent will produce significant fire weather
concerns late this morning into early this evening.

A departing high pressure system and a developing low over the
Plains will produce a tight surface pressure gradient which will
allow for gusty winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44
will have the greatest risk for significant fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 161814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
114 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Southeasterly winds had developed across the region overnight as
high pressure shifted to the east. These winds will increase today
and become more southerly as the pressure gradient tightens and
ahead of a developing front across the plains. Winds will gusts up
to around 35 mph at times across the Osage plains of southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. Wind speeds may approach wind
Advisory criteria during the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

Expect highs today to climb into the lower and middle 60s along
and north of the Ozark Plateau with cooler readings in the eastern
Ozarks.

The increasing wind...warmer temperatures and existing dry airmass
will result in a significant fire weather risk for portions of the
area. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The aforementioned front will sag southward into the area Thursday
while a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This will
bring an increase in clouds during the day. While lift associated
with this system will be sufficient for precipitation production
the availability of moisture will be limited. Expect scattered
light showers or sprinkles to move into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward into the Ozarks but likely decrease in coverage with
time. overall only light rainfall amounts are expected with this
system.

Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures will return Friday in
the wake of the exiting shortwave trough. The warming will
continue into Saturday with highs reaching or exceeding the 70
degree mark over much of the area.

The next shortwave trough tracking through a progressive upper
pattern will arrive late in the weekend bringing a chance rain and
perhaps some thunder on Sunday.

Dry weather and seasonable spring temperatures will return early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy surface conditions will be the primary concern for aviators
as surface winds gust to 35-40mph. Winds will begin to diminish
after sunset with no flight impacts expected during the overnight
hours. ceilings and visibilities will remain VFR through the
forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning has been issued from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and central Missouri from 11 am through 7 pm today.

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to around 35
mph at times combined with minimum relative humidity values
ranging 20 to 30 percent will produce significant fire weather
concerns late this morning into early this evening.

A departing high pressure system and a developing low over the
Plains will produce a tight surface pressure gradient which will
allow for gusty winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44
will have the greatest risk for significant fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch










000
FXUS63 KSGF 161057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Southeasterly winds had developed across the region overnight as
high pressure shifted to the east. These winds will increase today
and become more southerly as the pressure gradient tightens and
ahead of a developing front across the plains. Winds will gusts up
to around 35 mph at times across the Osage plains of southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. Wind speeds may approach wind
Advisory criteria during the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

Expect highs today to climb into the lower and middle 60s along
and north of the Ozark Plateau with cooler readings in the eastern
Ozarks.

The increasing wind...warmer temperatures and existing dry airmass
will result in a significant fire weather risk for portions of the
area. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The aforementioned front will sag southward into the area Thursday
while a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This will
bring an increase in clouds during the day. While lift associated
with this system will be sufficient for precipitation production
the availability of moisture will be limited. Expect scattered
light showers or sprinkles to move into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward into the Ozarks but likely decrease in coverage with
time. overall only light rainfall amounts are expected with this
system.

Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures will return Friday in
the wake of the exiting shortwave trough. The warming will
continue into Saturday with highs reaching or exceeding the 70
degree mark over much of the area.

The next shortwave trough tracking through a progressive upper
pattern will arrive late in the weekend bringing a chance rain and
perhaps some thunder on Sunday.

Dry weather and seasonable spring temperatures will return early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites today and tonight. The pressure gradient is
tightening across the area as high pressure pushes across Ohio and
surface low pressure deepens across the central plains. South to
southeasterly winds will pick up and be gusty this morning into
early this afternoon and will then gradually decrease later this
afternoon becoming light overnight. High clouds will increase this
evening and tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning has been issued from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and central Missouri from 11 am through 7 pm today.

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to around 35
mph at times combined with minimum relative humidity values
ranging 20 to 30 percent will produce significant fire weather
concerns late this morning into early this evening.

A departing high pressure system and a developing low over the
Plains will produce a tight surface pressure gradient which will
allow for gusty winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44
will have the greatest risk for significant fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-105-106.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 161057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Southeasterly winds had developed across the region overnight as
high pressure shifted to the east. These winds will increase today
and become more southerly as the pressure gradient tightens and
ahead of a developing front across the plains. Winds will gusts up
to around 35 mph at times across the Osage plains of southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. Wind speeds may approach wind
Advisory criteria during the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

Expect highs today to climb into the lower and middle 60s along
and north of the Ozark Plateau with cooler readings in the eastern
Ozarks.

The increasing wind...warmer temperatures and existing dry airmass
will result in a significant fire weather risk for portions of the
area. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The aforementioned front will sag southward into the area Thursday
while a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This will
bring an increase in clouds during the day. While lift associated
with this system will be sufficient for precipitation production
the availability of moisture will be limited. Expect scattered
light showers or sprinkles to move into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward into the Ozarks but likely decrease in coverage with
time. overall only light rainfall amounts are expected with this
system.

Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures will return Friday in
the wake of the exiting shortwave trough. The warming will
continue into Saturday with highs reaching or exceeding the 70
degree mark over much of the area.

The next shortwave trough tracking through a progressive upper
pattern will arrive late in the weekend bringing a chance rain and
perhaps some thunder on Sunday.

Dry weather and seasonable spring temperatures will return early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites today and tonight. The pressure gradient is
tightening across the area as high pressure pushes across Ohio and
surface low pressure deepens across the central plains. South to
southeasterly winds will pick up and be gusty this morning into
early this afternoon and will then gradually decrease later this
afternoon becoming light overnight. High clouds will increase this
evening and tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning has been issued from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and central Missouri from 11 am through 7 pm today.

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to around 35
mph at times combined with minimum relative humidity values
ranging 20 to 30 percent will produce significant fire weather
concerns late this morning into early this evening.

A departing high pressure system and a developing low over the
Plains will produce a tight surface pressure gradient which will
allow for gusty winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44
will have the greatest risk for significant fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-105-106.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 160803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Southeasterly winds had developed across the region overnight as
high pressure shifted to the east. These winds will increase today
and become more southerly as the pressure gradient tightens and
ahead of a developing front across the plains. Winds will gusts up
to around 35 mph at times across the Osage plains of southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. Wind speeds may approach wind
Advisory criteria during the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

Expect highs today to climb into the lower and middle 60s along
and north of the Ozark Plateau with cooler readings in the eastern
Ozarks.

The increasing wind...warmer temperatures and existing dry airmass
will result in a significant fire weather risk for portions of the
area. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The aforementioned front will sag southward into the area Thursday
while a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This will
bring an increase in clouds during the day. While lift associated
with this system will be sufficient for precipitation production
the availability of moisture will be limited. Expect scattered
light showers or sprinkles to move into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward into the Ozarks but likely decrease in coverage with
time. overall only light rainfall amounts are expected with this
system.

Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures will return Friday in
the wake of the exiting shortwave trough. The warming will
continue into Saturday with highs reaching or exceeding the 70
degree mark over much of the area.

The next shortwave trough tracking through a progressive upper
pattern will arrive late in the weekend bringing a chance rain and
perhaps some thunder on Sunday.

Dry weather and seasonable spring temperatures will return early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Some mid/high level clouds have pushed in from the west but VFR
conditions will persist through the period. Winds have started
coming around to the southeast at all three TAF sites. As the
pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the next low
pressure system, winds will be stronger on Wednesday with gusts up
to 25 to 30 kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning has been issued from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and central Missouri from 11 am through 7 pm today.

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to around 35
mph at times combined with minimum relative humidity values
ranging 20 to 30 percent will produce significant fire weather
concerns late this morning into early this evening.

A departing high pressure system and a developing low over the
Plains will produce a tight surface pressure gradient which will
allow for gusty winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44
will have the greatest risk for significant fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ058-070-071-
     080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 160803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Southeasterly winds had developed across the region overnight as
high pressure shifted to the east. These winds will increase today
and become more southerly as the pressure gradient tightens and
ahead of a developing front across the plains. Winds will gusts up
to around 35 mph at times across the Osage plains of southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. Wind speeds may approach wind
Advisory criteria during the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

Expect highs today to climb into the lower and middle 60s along
and north of the Ozark Plateau with cooler readings in the eastern
Ozarks.

The increasing wind...warmer temperatures and existing dry airmass
will result in a significant fire weather risk for portions of the
area. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The aforementioned front will sag southward into the area Thursday
while a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This will
bring an increase in clouds during the day. While lift associated
with this system will be sufficient for precipitation production
the availability of moisture will be limited. Expect scattered
light showers or sprinkles to move into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward into the Ozarks but likely decrease in coverage with
time. overall only light rainfall amounts are expected with this
system.

Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures will return Friday in
the wake of the exiting shortwave trough. The warming will
continue into Saturday with highs reaching or exceeding the 70
degree mark over much of the area.

The next shortwave trough tracking through a progressive upper
pattern will arrive late in the weekend bringing a chance rain and
perhaps some thunder on Sunday.

Dry weather and seasonable spring temperatures will return early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Some mid/high level clouds have pushed in from the west but VFR
conditions will persist through the period. Winds have started
coming around to the southeast at all three TAF sites. As the
pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the next low
pressure system, winds will be stronger on Wednesday with gusts up
to 25 to 30 kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning has been issued from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and central Missouri from 11 am through 7 pm today.

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to around 35
mph at times combined with minimum relative humidity values
ranging 20 to 30 percent will produce significant fire weather
concerns late this morning into early this evening.

A departing high pressure system and a developing low over the
Plains will produce a tight surface pressure gradient which will
allow for gusty winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44
will have the greatest risk for significant fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ058-070-071-
     080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160444
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Despite the lack of storms expected over the next day or two, there
are some weather concerns.

The area of high pressure that brought record lows to the region
and a widespread freeze will again drop temperatures to around the
freezing mark for areas generally along and south of I-44 overnight
tonight. The frost advisory that was in place has been continued,
as there were little changes to the forecast lows overnight. Some
locations may see temperatures fall into the upper 20s but there
should be isolated.

Part of the reason we did not upgrade to a freeze warning hinged on
the departure of the surface high. As it slides east of the
region, winds will begin to increase and become rather gusty. This
is expected to keep temperatures from falling drastically.

The increasing winds from a tightening surface gradient will also
become the concern for fire weather as relative humidities will b
rather low. see the fire weather section for more information.

The winds will be another concern for tomorrow as well. With winds
gusting at times to 40 mph, wind headlines may need to be added.
This would likely only be for areas west of I-49, but confidence
is low that we would meet criteria at this time so held off
issuing anything for winds tomorrow.

A weak front will move through the region Thursday and bring a
limited chance for some showers to the Ozarks. With the system
having to work through the dry air that will be in place from
Wednesday, only light precipitation is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

12z suite of model output offers no major changes to the extended
portion of the forecast. Friday into the first half of the weekend
look to be quiet and mild as shortwave ridging builds into the
area.

The flow aloft will remain fast and another shortwave is expected
to affect the region Sunday into early Monday. Models are in
better agreement with the system for Sunday timing wise and have
increase Pops a bit. Given the progressive nature of this system,
moisture return will be limited. As a result, have continued the
mention of light rain and kept thunder out of the forecast.

Shortwave ridging builds back into the area for early next week
and temperatures should warm to above average levels. Lows around
50 and highs in the 70s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Some mid/high level clouds have pushed in from the west but VFR
conditions will persist through the period. Winds have started
coming around to the southeast at all three TAF sites. As the
pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the next low
pressure system, winds will be stronger on Wednesday with gusts up
to 25 to 30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40mph at
times combined with relative humidity values from 25 to 35
percent will produce significant fire weather concerns for late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. A departing high
pressure and a developing low over the plains will produce a
rather tight surface pressure gradient which will allow for gusty
winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44 will have the best
potential for significant fire weather conditions. this prompted
the issuance of a fire weather watch from 11 am through 7pm
Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ058-070-071-
     080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 160444
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Despite the lack of storms expected over the next day or two, there
are some weather concerns.

The area of high pressure that brought record lows to the region
and a widespread freeze will again drop temperatures to around the
freezing mark for areas generally along and south of I-44 overnight
tonight. The frost advisory that was in place has been continued,
as there were little changes to the forecast lows overnight. Some
locations may see temperatures fall into the upper 20s but there
should be isolated.

Part of the reason we did not upgrade to a freeze warning hinged on
the departure of the surface high. As it slides east of the
region, winds will begin to increase and become rather gusty. This
is expected to keep temperatures from falling drastically.

The increasing winds from a tightening surface gradient will also
become the concern for fire weather as relative humidities will b
rather low. see the fire weather section for more information.

The winds will be another concern for tomorrow as well. With winds
gusting at times to 40 mph, wind headlines may need to be added.
This would likely only be for areas west of I-49, but confidence
is low that we would meet criteria at this time so held off
issuing anything for winds tomorrow.

A weak front will move through the region Thursday and bring a
limited chance for some showers to the Ozarks. With the system
having to work through the dry air that will be in place from
Wednesday, only light precipitation is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

12z suite of model output offers no major changes to the extended
portion of the forecast. Friday into the first half of the weekend
look to be quiet and mild as shortwave ridging builds into the
area.

The flow aloft will remain fast and another shortwave is expected
to affect the region Sunday into early Monday. Models are in
better agreement with the system for Sunday timing wise and have
increase Pops a bit. Given the progressive nature of this system,
moisture return will be limited. As a result, have continued the
mention of light rain and kept thunder out of the forecast.

Shortwave ridging builds back into the area for early next week
and temperatures should warm to above average levels. Lows around
50 and highs in the 70s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Some mid/high level clouds have pushed in from the west but VFR
conditions will persist through the period. Winds have started
coming around to the southeast at all three TAF sites. As the
pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the next low
pressure system, winds will be stronger on Wednesday with gusts up
to 25 to 30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40mph at
times combined with relative humidity values from 25 to 35
percent will produce significant fire weather concerns for late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. A departing high
pressure and a developing low over the plains will produce a
rather tight surface pressure gradient which will allow for gusty
winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44 will have the best
potential for significant fire weather conditions. this prompted
the issuance of a fire weather watch from 11 am through 7pm
Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ058-070-071-
     080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 152227
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Despite the lack of storms expected over the next day or two, there
are some weather concerns.

The area of high pressure that brought record lows to the region
and a widespread freeze will again drop temperatures to around the
freezing mark for areas generally along and south of I-44 overnight
tonight. The frost advisory that was in place has been continued,
as there were little changes to the forecast lows overnight. Some
locations may see temperatures fall into the upper 20s but there
should be isolated.

Part of the reason we did not upgrade to a freeze warning hinged on
the departure of the surface high. As it slides east of the
region, winds will begin to increase and become rather gusty. This
is expected to keep temperatures from falling drastically.

The increasing winds from a tightening surface gradient will also
become the concern for fire weather as relative humidities will b
rather low. see the fire weather section for more information.

The winds will be another concern for tomorrow as well. With winds
gusting at times to 40 mph, wind headlines may need to be added.
This would likely only be for areas west of I-49, but confidence
is low that we would meet criteria at this time so held off
issuing anything for winds tomorrow.

A weak front will move through the region Thursday and bring a
limited chance for some showers to the Ozarks. With the system
having to work through the dry air that will be in place from
Wednesday, only light precipitation is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

12z suite of model output offers no major changes to the extended
portion of the forecast. Friday into the first half of the weekend
look to be quiet and mild as shortwave ridging builds into the
area.

The flow aloft will remain fast and another shortwave is expected
to affect the region Sunday into early Monday. Models are in
better agreement with the system for Sunday timing wise and have
increase Pops a bit. Given the progressive nature of this system,
moisture return will be limited. As a result, have continued the
mention of light rain and kept thunder out of the forecast.

Shortwave ridging builds back into the area for early next week
and temperatures should warm to above average levels. Lows around
50 and highs in the 70s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

High pressure has shifted to the east of the area with the TAF
locations still being affected with light and variable winds.
Winds should start to come around to the southeast this evening at
SGF/JLN and during the overnight at BBG as the high continues to
pull away from the region to the east. Windy conditions are
expected on Wednesday with the departing ridge and low pressure
developing in the Plains. Winds of 20 to 30 kts will be possible
during the daytime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40mph at
times combined with relative humidity values from 25 to 35
percent will produce significant fire weather concerns for late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. A departing high
pressure and a developing low over the plains will produce a
rather tight surface pressure gradient which will allow for gusty
winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44 will have the best
potential for significant fire weather conditions. this prompted
the issuance of a fire weather watch from 11 am through 7pm
Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ058-070-
     071-080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 152032
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Despite the lack of storms expected over the next day or two, there
are some weather concerns.

The area of high pressure that brought record lows to the region
and a widespread freeze will again drop temperatures to around the
freezing mark for areas generally along and south of I-44 overnight
tonight. The frost advisory that was in place has been continued,
as there were little changes to the forecast lows overnight. Some
locations may see temperatures fall into the upper 20s but there
should be isolated.

Part of the reason we did not upgrade to a freeze warning hinged on
the departure of the surface high. As it slides east of the
region, winds will begin to increase and become rather gusty. This
is expected to keep temperatures from falling drastically.

The increasing winds from a tightening surface gradient will also
become the concern for fire weather as relative humidities will b
rather low. see the fire weather section for more information.

The winds will be another concern for tomorrow as well. With winds
gusting at times to 40 mph, wind headlines may need to be added.
This would likely only be for areas west of I-49, but confidence
is low that we would meet criteria at this time so held off
issuing anything for winds tomorrow.

A weak front will move through the region Thursday and bring a
limited chance for some showers to the Ozarks. With the system
having to work through the dry air that will be in place from
Wednesday, only light precipitation is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

12z suite of model output offers no major changes to the extended
portion of the forecast. Friday into the first half of the weekend
look to be quiet and mild as shortwave ridging builds into the
area.

The flow aloft will remain fast and another shortwave is expected
to affect the region Sunday into early Monday. Models are in
better agreement with the system for Sunday timing wise and have
increase Pops a bit. Given the progressive nature of this system,
moisture return will be limited. As a result, have continued the
mention of light rain and kept thunder out of the forecast.

Shortwave ridging builds back into the area for early next week
and temperatures should warm to above average levels. Lows around
50 and highs in the 70s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

High pressure moving across the Ozarks region will allow for VFR
flight conditions to remain over the area through the forecast
period. Low level wind shear will impact flight concerns in
vicinity of the Joplin terminal during the overnight hours,
otherwise no impacts to flight area expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40mph at
times combined with relative humidity values from 25 to 35
percent will produce significant fire weather concerns for late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. A departing high
pressure and a developing low over the plains will produce a
rather tight surface pressure gradient which will allow for gusty
winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44 will have the best
potential for significant fire weather conditions. this prompted
the issuance of a fire weather watch from 11 am through 7pm
Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ058-070-
     071-080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 152032
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Despite the lack of storms expected over the next day or two, there
are some weather concerns.

The area of high pressure that brought record lows to the region
and a widespread freeze will again drop temperatures to around the
freezing mark for areas generally along and south of I-44 overnight
tonight. The frost advisory that was in place has been continued,
as there were little changes to the forecast lows overnight. Some
locations may see temperatures fall into the upper 20s but there
should be isolated.

Part of the reason we did not upgrade to a freeze warning hinged on
the departure of the surface high. As it slides east of the
region, winds will begin to increase and become rather gusty. This
is expected to keep temperatures from falling drastically.

The increasing winds from a tightening surface gradient will also
become the concern for fire weather as relative humidities will b
rather low. see the fire weather section for more information.

The winds will be another concern for tomorrow as well. With winds
gusting at times to 40 mph, wind headlines may need to be added.
This would likely only be for areas west of I-49, but confidence
is low that we would meet criteria at this time so held off
issuing anything for winds tomorrow.

A weak front will move through the region Thursday and bring a
limited chance for some showers to the Ozarks. With the system
having to work through the dry air that will be in place from
Wednesday, only light precipitation is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

12z suite of model output offers no major changes to the extended
portion of the forecast. Friday into the first half of the weekend
look to be quiet and mild as shortwave ridging builds into the
area.

The flow aloft will remain fast and another shortwave is expected
to affect the region Sunday into early Monday. Models are in
better agreement with the system for Sunday timing wise and have
increase Pops a bit. Given the progressive nature of this system,
moisture return will be limited. As a result, have continued the
mention of light rain and kept thunder out of the forecast.

Shortwave ridging builds back into the area for early next week
and temperatures should warm to above average levels. Lows around
50 and highs in the 70s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

High pressure moving across the Ozarks region will allow for VFR
flight conditions to remain over the area through the forecast
period. Low level wind shear will impact flight concerns in
vicinity of the Joplin terminal during the overnight hours,
otherwise no impacts to flight area expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40mph at
times combined with relative humidity values from 25 to 35
percent will produce significant fire weather concerns for late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. A departing high
pressure and a developing low over the plains will produce a
rather tight surface pressure gradient which will allow for gusty
winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44 will have the best
potential for significant fire weather conditions. this prompted
the issuance of a fire weather watch from 11 am through 7pm
Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ058-070-
     071-080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch








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