Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KSGF 190548
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Low clouds and light fog continue across the entire forecast area
this afternoon, with temperatures only warming into the mid 30s.
Cloud cover will remain in place tonight, with ceilings dropping
this evening, resulting in rather widespread fog through the
overnight hours.  For now forecast visibilities have been reduced to
a 1/2 mile late this evening through tomorrow morning, though it`s
not beyond the realm of possibility that even lower values may be
observed.  Trends will be monitored this evening/tonight for dense
fog potential.

Forecast soundings suggest that low clouds and fog will continue
through much of the day tomorrow, though visibilities should slowly
improve during the late morning hours.  With abundant moisture and
persistent, relatively weak lift aloft, clouds look to remain in place
through the day.  A shortwave and associated surface low will track
along the Gulf coast tomorrow, which may result in a few flurries
and/or sprinkles making it into far south central Missouri.  The
track of this system appears to be far enough south to preclude any
significant precipitation, however.

Temperatures tomorrow will again only warm into the
mid to perhaps upper 30s in most spots, though we may be able to
crack 40 degrees across far southwestern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Skies will slowly become partly cloudy Saturday, continuing through
Sunday, with weekend highs warming to seasonable values--generally
mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will warm further into the upper 40s
and low 50s Monday, with southerly winds increasing ahead of an
approaching cold front.

That front, the first of two, will pass through the area Monday
afternoon. This first front looks to be fairly weak, though a
smattering of rain showers appears possible Monday and Monday
evening. By early Tuesday, a much stronger front will then sweep
across the region, with sharply colder air arriving during the day
Tuesday. Precipitation lingering across the area Tuesday may end
during the day as a mix of rain and snow, though at this point
impacts look to be minimal.

The remainder of the 7 day forecast period will be cooler but
generally dry, with highs Christmas Eve and Christmas Day ranging from
the upper 30s to mid 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: IFR conditions are common over the
area with abundant low level moisture and light winds. Conditions
won`t change much in the near term and with low sun angles, only
expect very limited and gradual improvement toward or just after
18z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Friday FOR MOZ056>058-069>071-
     080>083-090>092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190548
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Low clouds and light fog continue across the entire forecast area
this afternoon, with temperatures only warming into the mid 30s.
Cloud cover will remain in place tonight, with ceilings dropping
this evening, resulting in rather widespread fog through the
overnight hours.  For now forecast visibilities have been reduced to
a 1/2 mile late this evening through tomorrow morning, though it`s
not beyond the realm of possibility that even lower values may be
observed.  Trends will be monitored this evening/tonight for dense
fog potential.

Forecast soundings suggest that low clouds and fog will continue
through much of the day tomorrow, though visibilities should slowly
improve during the late morning hours.  With abundant moisture and
persistent, relatively weak lift aloft, clouds look to remain in place
through the day.  A shortwave and associated surface low will track
along the Gulf coast tomorrow, which may result in a few flurries
and/or sprinkles making it into far south central Missouri.  The
track of this system appears to be far enough south to preclude any
significant precipitation, however.

Temperatures tomorrow will again only warm into the
mid to perhaps upper 30s in most spots, though we may be able to
crack 40 degrees across far southwestern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Skies will slowly become partly cloudy Saturday, continuing through
Sunday, with weekend highs warming to seasonable values--generally
mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will warm further into the upper 40s
and low 50s Monday, with southerly winds increasing ahead of an
approaching cold front.

That front, the first of two, will pass through the area Monday
afternoon. This first front looks to be fairly weak, though a
smattering of rain showers appears possible Monday and Monday
evening. By early Tuesday, a much stronger front will then sweep
across the region, with sharply colder air arriving during the day
Tuesday. Precipitation lingering across the area Tuesday may end
during the day as a mix of rain and snow, though at this point
impacts look to be minimal.

The remainder of the 7 day forecast period will be cooler but
generally dry, with highs Christmas Eve and Christmas Day ranging from
the upper 30s to mid 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: IFR conditions are common over the
area with abundant low level moisture and light winds. Conditions
won`t change much in the near term and with low sun angles, only
expect very limited and gradual improvement toward or just after
18z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Friday FOR MOZ056>058-069>071-
     080>083-090>092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 190008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Low clouds and light fog continue across the entire forecast area
this afternoon, with temperatures only warming into the mid 30s.
Cloud cover will remain in place tonight, with ceilings dropping
this evening, resulting in rather widespread fog through the
overnight hours.  For now forecast visibilities have been reduced to
a 1/2 mile late this evening through tomorrow morning, though it`s
not beyond the realm of possibility that even lower values may be
observed.  Trends will be monitored this evening/tonight for dense
fog potential.

Forecast soundings suggest that low clouds and fog will continue
through much of the day tomorrow, though visibilities should slowly
improve during the late morning hours.  With abundant moisture and
persistent, relatively weak lift aloft, clouds look to remain in place
through the day.  A shortwave and associated surface low will track
along the Gulf coast tomorrow, which may result in a few flurries
and/or sprinkles making it into far south central Missouri.  The
track of this system appears to be far enough south to preclude any
significant precipitation, however.

Temperatures tomorrow will again only warm into the
mid to perhaps upper 30s in most spots, though we may be able to
crack 40 degrees across far southwestern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Skies will slowly become partly cloudy Saturday, continuing through
Sunday, with weekend highs warming to seasonable values--generally
mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will warm further into the upper 40s
and low 50s Monday, with southerly winds increasing ahead of an
approaching cold front.

That front, the first of two, will pass through the area Monday
afternoon. This first front looks to be fairly weak, though a
smattering of rain showers appears possible Monday and Monday
evening. By early Tuesday, a much stronger front will then sweep
across the region, with sharply colder air arriving during the day
Tuesday. Precipitation lingering across the area Tuesday may end
during the day as a mix of rain and snow, though at this point
impacts look to be minimal.

The remainder of the 7 day forecast period will be cooler but
generally dry, with highs Christmas Eve and Christmas Day ranging from
the upper 30s to mid 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Weak low level flow and saturated low
levels will allow already low stratus to build down in the near
term. Low IFR conditions are expected. Low seasonal sun angles
will not likely allow for quick improvement in the morning. All
locations are ifr cat for this taf cycle, but some modest diurnal
improvement is expected after 16z-18z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Low clouds and light fog continue across the entire forecast area
this afternoon, with temperatures only warming into the mid 30s.
Cloud cover will remain in place tonight, with ceilings dropping
this evening, resulting in rather widespread fog through the
overnight hours.  For now forecast visibilities have been reduced to
a 1/2 mile late this evening through tomorrow morning, though it`s
not beyond the realm of possibility that even lower values may be
observed.  Trends will be monitored this evening/tonight for dense
fog potential.

Forecast soundings suggest that low clouds and fog will continue
through much of the day tomorrow, though visibilities should slowly
improve during the late morning hours.  With abundant moisture and
persistent, relatively weak lift aloft, clouds look to remain in place
through the day.  A shortwave and associated surface low will track
along the Gulf coast tomorrow, which may result in a few flurries
and/or sprinkles making it into far south central Missouri.  The
track of this system appears to be far enough south to preclude any
significant precipitation, however.

Temperatures tomorrow will again only warm into the
mid to perhaps upper 30s in most spots, though we may be able to
crack 40 degrees across far southwestern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Skies will slowly become partly cloudy Saturday, continuing through
Sunday, with weekend highs warming to seasonable values--generally
mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will warm further into the upper 40s
and low 50s Monday, with southerly winds increasing ahead of an
approaching cold front.

That front, the first of two, will pass through the area Monday
afternoon. This first front looks to be fairly weak, though a
smattering of rain showers appears possible Monday and Monday
evening. By early Tuesday, a much stronger front will then sweep
across the region, with sharply colder air arriving during the day
Tuesday. Precipitation lingering across the area Tuesday may end
during the day as a mix of rain and snow, though at this point
impacts look to be minimal.

The remainder of the 7 day forecast period will be cooler but
generally dry, with highs Christmas Eve and Christmas Day ranging from
the upper 30s to mid 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Weak low level flow and saturated low
levels will allow already low stratus to build down in the near
term. Low IFR conditions are expected. Low seasonal sun angles
will not likely allow for quick improvement in the morning. All
locations are ifr cat for this taf cycle, but some modest diurnal
improvement is expected after 16z-18z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 182027
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Low clouds and light fog continue across the entire forecast area
this afternoon, with temperatures only warming into the mid 30s.
Cloud cover will remain in place tonight, with ceilings dropping
this evening, resulting in rather widespread fog through the
overnight hours.  For now forecast visibilities have been reduced to
a 1/2 mile late this evening through tomorrow morning, though it`s
not beyond the realm of possibility that even lower values may be
observed.  Trends will be monitored this evening/tonight for dense
fog potential.

Forecast soundings suggest that low clouds and fog will continue
through much of the day tomorrow, though visibilities should slowly
improve during the late morning hours.  With abundant moisture and
persistent, relatively weak lift aloft, clouds look to remain in place
through the day.  A shortwave and associated surface low will track
along the Gulf coast tomorrow, which may result in a few flurries
and/or sprinkles making it into far south central Missouri.  The
track of this system appears to be far enough south to preclude any
significant precipitation, however.

Temperatures tomorrow will again only warm into the
mid to perhaps upper 30s in most spots, though we may be able to
crack 40 degrees across far southwestern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Skies will slowly become partly cloudy Saturday, continuing through
Sunday, with weekend highs warming to seasonable values--generally
mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will warm further into the upper 40s
and low 50s Monday, with southerly winds increasing ahead of an
approaching cold front.

That front, the first of two, will pass through the area Monday
afternoon. This first front looks to be fairly weak, though a
smattering of rain showers appears possible Monday and Monday
evening. By early Tuesday, a much stronger front will then sweep
across the region, with sharply colder air arriving during the day
Tuesday. Precipitation lingering across the area Tuesday may end
during the day as a mix of rain and snow, though at this point
impacts look to be minimal.

The remainder of the 7 day forecast period will be cooler but
generally dry, with highs Christmas Eve and Christmas Day ranging from
the upper 30s to mid 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR and LIFR conditions will continue through Friday morning.
Flight restrictions will initially be due to low ceilings, however
confidence is then high that fog will develop tonight and persist
into Friday morning. Confidence in dense fog and LIFR visibilities
is moderate (but increasing) at this point. Winds will remain
light and variable through Friday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181702
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to Aviation and Short Term Forecast for Fog Potential...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The prospects appear favorable for fog development (possibly
dense) tonight and early Friday morning. The lower atmosphere
will be saturated with little in the way of wind. All forms of MOS
guidance, raw model visibility output, and the SREF also point in
the direction of fog. We will therefore be inserting fog into the
forecast along with the Hazardous Weather Outlook. A Dense Fog
Advisory may be required for portions of the area at some point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR and LIFR conditions will continue through Friday morning.
Flight restrictions will initially be due to low ceilings, however
confidence is then high that fog will develop tonight and persist
into Friday morning. Confidence in dense fog and LIFR visibilities
is moderate (but increasing) at this point. Winds will remain
light and variable through Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181702
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to Aviation and Short Term Forecast for Fog Potential...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The prospects appear favorable for fog development (possibly
dense) tonight and early Friday morning. The lower atmosphere
will be saturated with little in the way of wind. All forms of MOS
guidance, raw model visibility output, and the SREF also point in
the direction of fog. We will therefore be inserting fog into the
forecast along with the Hazardous Weather Outlook. A Dense Fog
Advisory may be required for portions of the area at some point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR and LIFR conditions will continue through Friday morning.
Flight restrictions will initially be due to low ceilings, however
confidence is then high that fog will develop tonight and persist
into Friday morning. Confidence in dense fog and LIFR visibilities
is moderate (but increasing) at this point. Winds will remain
light and variable through Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181229
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Pilots can expect IFR conditions today through tonight.

Light fog and areas of drizzle will reduce the visibility. Some
patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled this morning with some
very light snow possible at the Springfield terminal.

Otherwise IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181229
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Pilots can expect IFR conditions today through tonight.

Light fog and areas of drizzle will reduce the visibility. Some
patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled this morning with some
very light snow possible at the Springfield terminal.

Otherwise IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181229
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Pilots can expect IFR conditions today through tonight.

Light fog and areas of drizzle will reduce the visibility. Some
patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled this morning with some
very light snow possible at the Springfield terminal.

Otherwise IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 180923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light Wintry Precipitation Continues this Morning...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA











000
FXUS63 KSGF 180923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light Wintry Precipitation Continues this Morning...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA












000
FXUS63 KSGF 180923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light Wintry Precipitation Continues this Morning...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA











000
FXUS63 KSGF 180923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light Wintry Precipitation Continues this Morning...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA












000
FXUS63 KSGF 180528
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 180528
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KSGF 172349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with deteriorating flight conditions over the next 24
hours.

A storm system has arrived, and is currently producing a large
shield of light rain with embedded sleet. Ceilings will continue
to fall into the MVFR and IFR category this evening and tonight.

Visibilities will also fall in category as the rain becomes
heavier. There is a chance for some snow, although the predominate
precipitation type will likely be rain and drizzle.

The drizzle will become the heaviest tonight into Thursday morning
as we begin to lose cloud ice.

It appears as though drizzle and low cloud cover will continue
through most of Thursday`s day period.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KSGF 172349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with deteriorating flight conditions over the next 24
hours.

A storm system has arrived, and is currently producing a large
shield of light rain with embedded sleet. Ceilings will continue
to fall into the MVFR and IFR category this evening and tonight.

Visibilities will also fall in category as the rain becomes
heavier. There is a chance for some snow, although the predominate
precipitation type will likely be rain and drizzle.

The drizzle will become the heaviest tonight into Thursday morning
as we begin to lose cloud ice.

It appears as though drizzle and low cloud cover will continue
through most of Thursday`s day period.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 172101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 172101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171614
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1014 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be
possible within any snow that develops. this evening and
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171614
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1014 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be
possible within any snow that develops. this evening and
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be possible
within any snow that develops. this evening and tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be possible
within any snow that develops. this evening and tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171038
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Wintry Mix Late This Afternoon Through Early Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Sky has cleared from west to east this evening at the TAF sites,
and was being replaced with mid/upper level cloudiness spreading
back into the area from the west in advance of the next system.
Ceilings will lower tonight/Wednesday with lower levels beginning
to eventually saturate enough for some precipitation by late in
the day Wednesday or early evening. May begin as a mix of
rain/snow at SGF but expecting light rain at Branson/Joplin at the onset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for areas
along and north of Highway 60.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for
Bourbon and Crawford Counties. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171038
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Wintry Mix Late This Afternoon Through Early Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Sky has cleared from west to east this evening at the TAF sites,
and was being replaced with mid/upper level cloudiness spreading
back into the area from the west in advance of the next system.
Ceilings will lower tonight/Wednesday with lower levels beginning
to eventually saturate enough for some precipitation by late in
the day Wednesday or early evening. May begin as a mix of
rain/snow at SGF but expecting light rain at Branson/Joplin at the onset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for areas
along and north of Highway 60.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for
Bourbon and Crawford Counties. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 170502
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Sky has cleared from west to east this evening at the TAF sites,
and was being replaced with mid/upper level cloudiness spreading
back into the area from the west in advance of the next system.
Ceilings will lower tonight/Wednesday with lower levels beginning
to eventually saturate enough for some precipitation by late in
the day Wednesday or early evening. May begin as a mix of
rain/snow at SGF but expecting light rain at Branson/Joplin at the onset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162302
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 458 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Drier air was slowly working eastward in the lower levels and has
been clearing the cloud cover from west to east late this
afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening hours with
clearing starting to take place at SGF and BBG by 01-02z. As high
pressure moves into the area, surface winds will diminish to light
and variable this evening and will continue through the remainder
of the TAFS. Higher level clouds will begin to move into the area
towards morning and will begin to lower during the day Wednesday,
but should remain in VFR through 00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 162302
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 458 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Drier air was slowly working eastward in the lower levels and has
been clearing the cloud cover from west to east late this
afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening hours with
clearing starting to take place at SGF and BBG by 01-02z. As high
pressure moves into the area, surface winds will diminish to light
and variable this evening and will continue through the remainder
of the TAFS. Higher level clouds will begin to move into the area
towards morning and will begin to lower during the day Wednesday,
but should remain in VFR through 00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS:

Main forecast concern is on cloud trends this afternoon and evening
and corresponding ceilings heights.

12Z KSGF sounding shows low level moisture in the 900mb-850mb layer.
Examinations of short term model trends indicates this layer to
slowly dry through the afternoon from west to east as surface high
pressure shifts eastward from Kansas. Visible satellite imagery
showing back edge of clouds into eastern Kansas. MVFR ceilings will
slowly rise at the taf sites before scattering out later this
afternoon. Of note is the 15Z RAP BUKFIT soundings are slower in
pushing this moisture out this afternoon. Based on latest
satellite trends feel RAP may be to slow. As high slides across
the terminals tonight into early Wednesday expect VFR conditions
with light winds. Mid level moisture begins to increase ahead of
the next wave between 15Z-18Z but any ceilings that develop will
be in the VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 161736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A stacked low pressure system continued to make its way toward
the Great Lakes region this morning. Accompanying deep cyclonic
pattern was resulting in a an expansive stratus field from the
Ozarks north into the Canadian provinces. Some patchy drizzle or
sprinkles noted across the region this morning and this will
continue mainly across central Missouri through the early morning
hours. Clouds will linger most of the day with gradual clearing
from the west this afternoon into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

An active progressive pattern over the next several days will
bring the potential of a couple of chances of light winter
precipitation events.

Seasonably cool and tranquil can be expected during the day Wednesday
as surface high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the
exiting low pressure system. However the break in active weather
will be brief as a shortwave trough tracks from southern California
into the southern Plains by Wednesday night.

Theta-e advection within the 850-700 mb layer and isentropic ascent
will strengthen Wednesday evening as moisture advects northward
resulting in an increasing coverage of precipitation. Lift could
be further enhanced by a ribbon of mid level frontogenetical forcing.
Expect light precipitation to develop as early as late Wednesday afternoon
across far southwestern Missouri then overspread the area Wednesday
evening.

Top down winter precipitation method and progged thermal profiles
suggest that precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow across
far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas and
primarily all snow across the remainder of the area generally
north of Highway 60 Wednesday night. Surface temperatures will
settle to near the freezing mark across much the area.

Snow accumulations Wednesday night will be light with amounts
ranging from a trace up to an inch expected at this time. While
accumulations will be light there is the potential for travel
impacts Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute.

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday while we lose cloud
ice. The result will be a transition Thursday to patchy light rain
and drizzle. Will have to monitor for the potential of patchy
freezing drizzle Thursday night.

The next more pronounced shortwave trough will track across Texas
and the lower Mississippi River Valley Friday and Saturday with a
developing surface low along the Gulf coast. The precipitation
shield associated with this system will brush southern Missouri
Friday and Friday night. Precipitation during the day Friday will
be primarily rain with some potential of a rain/snow mix. The best
chance of precipitation will be across south central Missouri
Friday night. Expect precipitation to transition to primarily snow
Friday night with the best potential of minor accumulations across
south central Missouri or southeast of a Branson to Salem line.

Overall confidence has increased that at least portions of the
Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas we will have a
couple of minor winter precipitation events Wednesday night again
later Friday. It is important to note that while accumulations if
any will be light there is the potential that travel could be
impacted Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute and
again Friday night. The placement and accumulations of snow will
be refined with time as new model data is received. Please
monitor the latest forecast.

A seasonably cold and drier weather pattern will return this
weekend as the region comes under the influence of a more
northwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS:

Main forecast concern is on cloud trends this afternoon and evening
and corresponding ceilings heights.

12Z KSGF sounding shows low level moisture in the 900mb-850mb layer.
Examinations of short term model trends indicates this layer to
slowly dry through the afternoon from west to east as surface high
pressure shifts eastward from Kansas. Visible satellite imagery
showing back edge of clouds into eastern Kansas. MVFR ceilings will
slowly rise at the taf sites before scattering out later this
afternoon. Of note is the 15Z RAP BUKFIT soundings are slower in
pushing this moisture out this afternoon. Based on latest
satellite trends feel RAP may be to slow. As high slides across
the terminals tonight into early Wednesday expect VFR conditions
with light winds. Mid level moisture begins to increase ahead of
the next wave between 15Z-18Z but any ceilings that develop will
be in the VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding








000
FXUS63 KSGF 161736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A stacked low pressure system continued to make its way toward
the Great Lakes region this morning. Accompanying deep cyclonic
pattern was resulting in a an expansive stratus field from the
Ozarks north into the Canadian provinces. Some patchy drizzle or
sprinkles noted across the region this morning and this will
continue mainly across central Missouri through the early morning
hours. Clouds will linger most of the day with gradual clearing
from the west this afternoon into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

An active progressive pattern over the next several days will
bring the potential of a couple of chances of light winter
precipitation events.

Seasonably cool and tranquil can be expected during the day Wednesday
as surface high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the
exiting low pressure system. However the break in active weather
will be brief as a shortwave trough tracks from southern California
into the southern Plains by Wednesday night.

Theta-e advection within the 850-700 mb layer and isentropic ascent
will strengthen Wednesday evening as moisture advects northward
resulting in an increasing coverage of precipitation. Lift could
be further enhanced by a ribbon of mid level frontogenetical forcing.
Expect light precipitation to develop as early as late Wednesday afternoon
across far southwestern Missouri then overspread the area Wednesday
evening.

Top down winter precipitation method and progged thermal profiles
suggest that precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow across
far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas and
primarily all snow across the remainder of the area generally
north of Highway 60 Wednesday night. Surface temperatures will
settle to near the freezing mark across much the area.

Snow accumulations Wednesday night will be light with amounts
ranging from a trace up to an inch expected at this time. While
accumulations will be light there is the potential for travel
impacts Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute.

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday while we lose cloud
ice. The result will be a transition Thursday to patchy light rain
and drizzle. Will have to monitor for the potential of patchy
freezing drizzle Thursday night.

The next more pronounced shortwave trough will track across Texas
and the lower Mississippi River Valley Friday and Saturday with a
developing surface low along the Gulf coast. The precipitation
shield associated with this system will brush southern Missouri
Friday and Friday night. Precipitation during the day Friday will
be primarily rain with some potential of a rain/snow mix. The best
chance of precipitation will be across south central Missouri
Friday night. Expect precipitation to transition to primarily snow
Friday night with the best potential of minor accumulations across
south central Missouri or southeast of a Branson to Salem line.

Overall confidence has increased that at least portions of the
Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas we will have a
couple of minor winter precipitation events Wednesday night again
later Friday. It is important to note that while accumulations if
any will be light there is the potential that travel could be
impacted Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute and
again Friday night. The placement and accumulations of snow will
be refined with time as new model data is received. Please
monitor the latest forecast.

A seasonably cold and drier weather pattern will return this
weekend as the region comes under the influence of a more
northwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS:

Main forecast concern is on cloud trends this afternoon and evening
and corresponding ceilings heights.

12Z KSGF sounding shows low level moisture in the 900mb-850mb layer.
Examinations of short term model trends indicates this layer to
slowly dry through the afternoon from west to east as surface high
pressure shifts eastward from Kansas. Visible satellite imagery
showing back edge of clouds into eastern Kansas. MVFR ceilings will
slowly rise at the taf sites before scattering out later this
afternoon. Of note is the 15Z RAP BUKFIT soundings are slower in
pushing this moisture out this afternoon. Based on latest
satellite trends feel RAP may be to slow. As high slides across
the terminals tonight into early Wednesday expect VFR conditions
with light winds. Mid level moisture begins to increase ahead of
the next wave between 15Z-18Z but any ceilings that develop will
be in the VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 161122
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A stacked low pressure system continued to make its way toward
the Great Lakes region this morning. Accompanying deep cyclonic
pattern was resulting in a an expansive stratus field from the
Ozarks north into the Canadian provinces. Some patchy drizzle or
sprinkles noted across the region this morning and this will
continue mainly across central Missouri through the early morning
hours. Clouds will linger most of the day with gradual clearing
from the west this afternoon into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

An active progressive pattern over the next several days will
bring the potential of a couple of chances of light winter
precipitation events.

Seasonably cool and tranquil can be expected during the day Wednesday
as surface high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the
exiting low pressure system. However the break in active weather
will be brief as a shortwave trough tracks from southern California
into the southern Plains by Wednesday night.

Theta-e advection within the 850-700 mb layer and isentropic ascent
will strengthen Wednesday evening as moisture advects northward
resulting in an increasing coverage of precipitation. Lift could
be further enhanced by a ribbon of mid level frontogenetical forcing.
Expect light precipitation to develop as early as late Wednesday afternoon
across far southwestern Missouri then overspread the area Wednesday
evening.

Top down winter precipitation method and progged thermal profiles
suggest that precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow across
far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas and
primarily all snow across the remainder of the area generally
north of Highway 60 Wednesday night. Surface temperatures will
settle to near the freezing mark across much the area.

Snow accumulations Wednesday night will be light with amounts
ranging from a trace up to an inch expected at this time. While
accumulations will be light there is the potential for travel
impacts Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute.

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday while we lose cloud
ice. The result will be a transition Thursday to patchy light rain
and drizzle. Will have to monitor for the potential of patchy
freezing drizzle Thursday night.

The next more pronounced shortwave trough will track across Texas
and the lower Mississippi River Valley Friday and Saturday with a
developing surface low along the Gulf coast. The precipitation
shield associated with this system will brush southern Missouri
Friday and Friday night. Precipitation during the day Friday will
be primarily rain with some potential of a rain/snow mix. The best
chance of precipitation will be across south central Missouri
Friday night. Expect precipitation to transition to primarily snow
Friday night with the best potential of minor accumulations across
south central Missouri or southeast of a Branson to Salem line.

Overall confidence has increased that at least portions of the
Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas we will have a
couple of minor winter precipitation events Wednesday night again
later Friday. It is important to note that while accumulations if
any will be light there is the potential that travel could be
impacted Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute and
again Friday night. The placement and accumulations of snow will
be refined with time as new model data is received. Please
monitor the latest forecast.

A seasonably cold and drier weather pattern will return this
weekend as the region comes under the influence of a more
northwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...The low level MVFR cloud deck
currently over the region, will remain over the area through this
morning into early this afternoon. Ceilings will slowly lift
with VFR ceilings expected to develop this afternoon, but will
remain cloudy. Clouds will then clear this evening into the
overnight hours with just scattered high clouds spreading across
the area.

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue to occur through this
morning into early this afternoon, but will gradually weaken
during this time. By this evening light northerly winds are
expected through the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 161122
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A stacked low pressure system continued to make its way toward
the Great Lakes region this morning. Accompanying deep cyclonic
pattern was resulting in a an expansive stratus field from the
Ozarks north into the Canadian provinces. Some patchy drizzle or
sprinkles noted across the region this morning and this will
continue mainly across central Missouri through the early morning
hours. Clouds will linger most of the day with gradual clearing
from the west this afternoon into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

An active progressive pattern over the next several days will
bring the potential of a couple of chances of light winter
precipitation events.

Seasonably cool and tranquil can be expected during the day Wednesday
as surface high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the
exiting low pressure system. However the break in active weather
will be brief as a shortwave trough tracks from southern California
into the southern Plains by Wednesday night.

Theta-e advection within the 850-700 mb layer and isentropic ascent
will strengthen Wednesday evening as moisture advects northward
resulting in an increasing coverage of precipitation. Lift could
be further enhanced by a ribbon of mid level frontogenetical forcing.
Expect light precipitation to develop as early as late Wednesday afternoon
across far southwestern Missouri then overspread the area Wednesday
evening.

Top down winter precipitation method and progged thermal profiles
suggest that precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow across
far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas and
primarily all snow across the remainder of the area generally
north of Highway 60 Wednesday night. Surface temperatures will
settle to near the freezing mark across much the area.

Snow accumulations Wednesday night will be light with amounts
ranging from a trace up to an inch expected at this time. While
accumulations will be light there is the potential for travel
impacts Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute.

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday while we lose cloud
ice. The result will be a transition Thursday to patchy light rain
and drizzle. Will have to monitor for the potential of patchy
freezing drizzle Thursday night.

The next more pronounced shortwave trough will track across Texas
and the lower Mississippi River Valley Friday and Saturday with a
developing surface low along the Gulf coast. The precipitation
shield associated with this system will brush southern Missouri
Friday and Friday night. Precipitation during the day Friday will
be primarily rain with some potential of a rain/snow mix. The best
chance of precipitation will be across south central Missouri
Friday night. Expect precipitation to transition to primarily snow
Friday night with the best potential of minor accumulations across
south central Missouri or southeast of a Branson to Salem line.

Overall confidence has increased that at least portions of the
Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas we will have a
couple of minor winter precipitation events Wednesday night again
later Friday. It is important to note that while accumulations if
any will be light there is the potential that travel could be
impacted Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute and
again Friday night. The placement and accumulations of snow will
be refined with time as new model data is received. Please
monitor the latest forecast.

A seasonably cold and drier weather pattern will return this
weekend as the region comes under the influence of a more
northwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...The low level MVFR cloud deck
currently over the region, will remain over the area through this
morning into early this afternoon. Ceilings will slowly lift
with VFR ceilings expected to develop this afternoon, but will
remain cloudy. Clouds will then clear this evening into the
overnight hours with just scattered high clouds spreading across
the area.

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue to occur through this
morning into early this afternoon, but will gradually weaken
during this time. By this evening light northerly winds are
expected through the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 160945
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

...Potential for Light Snow Wednesday Night and Late Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A stacked low pressure system continued to make its way toward
the Great Lakes region this morning. Accompanying deep cyclonic
pattern was resulting in a an expansive stratus field from the
Ozarks north into the Canadian provinces. Some patchy drizzle or
sprinkles noted across the region this morning and this will
continue mainly across central Missouri through the early morning
hours. Clouds will linger most of the day with gradual clearing
from the west this afternoon into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

An active progressive pattern over the next several days will
bring the potential of a couple of chances of light winter
precipitation events.

Seasonably cool and tranquil can be expected during the day Wednesday
as surface high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the
exiting low pressure system. However the break in active weather
will be brief as a shortwave trough tracks from southern California
into the southern Plains by Wednesday night.

Theta-e advection within the 850-700 mb layer and isentropic ascent
will strengthen Wednesday evening as moisture advects northward
resulting in an increasing coverage of precipitation. Lift could
be further enhanced by a ribbon of mid level frontogenetical forcing.
Expect light precipitation to develop as early as late Wednesday afternoon
across far southwestern Missouri then overspread the area Wednesday
evening.

Top down winter precipitation method and progged thermal profiles
suggest that precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow across
far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas and
primarily all snow across the remainder of the area generally
north of Highway 60 Wednesday night. Surface temperatures will
settle to near the freezing mark across much the area.

Snow accumulations Wednesday night will be light with amounts
ranging from a trace up to an inch expected at this time. While
accumulations will be light there is the potential for travel
impacts Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute.

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday while we lose cloud
ice. The result will be a transition Thursday to patchy light rain
and drizzle. Will have to monitor for the potential of patchy
freezing drizzle Thursday night.

The next more pronounced shortwave trough will track across Texas
and the lower Mississippi River Valley Friday and Saturday with a
developing surface low along the Gulf coast. The precipitation
shield associated with this system will brush southern Missouri
Friday and Friday night. Precipitation during the day Friday will
be primarily rain with some potential of a rain/snow mix. The best
chance of precipitation will be across south central Missouri
Friday night. Expect precipitation to transition to primarily snow
Friday night with the best potential of minor accumulations across
south central Missouri or southeast of a Branson to Salem line.

Overall confidence has increased that at least portions of the
Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas we will have a
couple of minor winter precipitation events Wednesday night again
later Friday. It is important to note that while accumulations if
any will be light there is the potential that travel could be
impacted Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute and
again Friday night. The placement and accumulations of snow will
be refined with time as new model data is received. Please
monitor the latest forecast.

A seasonably cold and drier weather pattern will return this
weekend as the region comes under the influence of a more
northwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

Expecting MVFR conditions to persist at the TAF sites through the
overnight and much of Tuesday morning. Drier air should begin to
work into the area from west to east by late morning into the
early afternoon with clearing expected during the afternoon. Gusty
west to northwest winds will gradually diminish to light and
variable by Tuesday evening as surface high pressure begins to
build in from the northwest.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities