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000
FXUS63 KSGF 280448
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The approach of upper level short wave energy and weak mid-level
isentropic upglide has resulted in a band of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms pushing northeast into portions of the
region this afternoon. One area of rainfall was occurring across
western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. A second area
was located across far south-central Missouri.

As we head into this evening, this initial activity will shift
northeast into central Missouri. We are expecting some scattered
development in its wake as that upper level wave inches closer to
our vicinity. While instability will be lacking a bit, deep layer
shear will increase into this evening. This will leave the door
open for an isolated strong to severe storm or two...especially
where bubbles of greater instability exist. Marginally severe hail
and wind would be the primary concerns along with locally heavy
rainfall.

By later tonight, we will have to watch activity back to
our west across the central Plains. There is a chance that this
convection grows upscale and pushes towards west-central Missouri.
However, it will be weakening with time as it moves into a less
unstable air mass.

That upper level wave will then move northeast across the central
Plains and then Corn Belt on Saturday. As this happens, we will
get some moisture pooling across west-central and southwestern
Missouri ahead of a weak surface trough. This will result in a
rather unstable atmosphere with MLCAPEs in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range.

The big question is whether or not storms will be able to
overcome a capping inversion. That upper level wave will actually
begin to depart the area in the afternoon with heights beginning
to rise. Additionally, low level convergence does not look all
that strong. Thus, we are thinking that any convection that fires
will tend to be widely scattered. Deep layer shear will be on the
weak side also, thus the prospects for severe are somewhat
limited. Nevertheless, we will continue to advertise a limited
severe risk due to the instability alone. Highs over most areas
should be in the lower to perhaps middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

There is then at least a limited potential that convection will
increase in areal coverage either Saturday evening or overnight
Saturday. Models seem to be hinting at the potential for a
convergence signature setting up around 850 mb from northeastern
Oklahoma into the Missouri Ozarks. If this transpires, we may see
elevated convection develop. Confidence remains low in this
scenario...but it is certainly worth noting.

Models then continue to bring short wave energy through the region
both on Sunday and Memorial Day. This will keep the threat going
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. If anything, there has
been a slight increase in thunderstorm potential for Memorial Day
as models bring a wave out into the Ozarks during peak heating.

We will then begin to see a slight transition towards the middle
and end of next week as global models dig a more substantial wave
into the northern Plains. This may eventually result in a cold
front dropping south towards the Ozarks. This will keep chances
for showers and thunderstorms going for much of the week along
with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A weakening area of
showers/thunderstorms n-nw of the taf sites should stay out of the
area. A weak front will slowly approach from the west late in the
taf period with south winds gradually veering to the southwest
with some moderate gusts at times after 15z. Showers/tstms could
again develop after 18z but coverage is expected to be limited.
Did include a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA





000
FXUS63 KSGF 280001
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
701 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The approach of upper level short wave energy and weak mid-level
isentropic upglide has resulted in a band of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms pushing northeast into portions of the
region this afternoon. One area of rainfall was occurring across
western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. A second area
was located across far south-central Missouri.

As we head into this evening, this initial activity will shift
northeast into central Missouri. We are expecting some scattered
development in its wake as that upper level wave inches closer to
our vicinity. While instability will be lacking a bit, deep layer
shear will increase into this evening. This will leave the door
open for an isolated strong to severe storm or two...especially
where bubbles of greater instability exist. Marginally severe hail
and wind would be the primary concerns along with locally heavy
rainfall.

By later tonight, we will have to watch activity back to
our west across the central Plains. There is a chance that this
convection grows upscale and pushes towards west-central Missouri.
However, it will be weakening with time as it moves into a less
unstable air mass.

That upper level wave will then move northeast across the central
Plains and then Corn Belt on Saturday. As this happens, we will
get some moisture pooling across west-central and southwestern
Missouri ahead of a weak surface trough. This will result in a
rather unstable atmosphere with MLCAPEs in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range.

The big question is whether or not storms will be able to
overcome a capping inversion. That upper level wave will actually
begin to depart the area in the afternoon with heights beginning
to rise. Additionally, low level convergence does not look all
that strong. Thus, we are thinking that any convection that fires
will tend to be widely scattered. Deep layer shear will be on the
weak side also, thus the prospects for severe are somewhat
limited. Nevertheless, we will continue to advertise a limited
severe risk due to the instability alone. Highs over most areas
should be in the lower to perhaps middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

There is then at least a limited potential that convection will
increase in areal coverage either Saturday evening or overnight
Saturday. Models seem to be hinting at the potential for a
convergence signature setting up around 850 mb from northeastern
Oklahoma into the Missouri Ozarks. If this transpires, we may see
elevated convection develop. Confidence remains low in this
scenario...but it is certainly worth noting.

Models then continue to bring short wave energy through the region
both on Sunday and Memorial Day. This will keep the threat going
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. If anything, there has
been a slight increase in thunderstorm potential for Memorial Day
as models bring a wave out into the Ozarks during peak heating.

We will then begin to see a slight transition towards the middle
and end of next week as global models dig a more substantial wave
into the northern Plains. This may eventually result in a cold
front dropping south towards the Ozarks. This will keep chances
for showers and thunderstorms going for much of the week along
with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the
plains and over the Ozarks over the next 24 hours bringing the
potential for thunderstorms to area termianls. As a resutl for
deep moisture over the region cloud cover will fall to MVFR
overnight with periods of IFR ceilings possible, early Saturday
morning. Conditions will see an improving trend late Saturday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch





000
FXUS63 KSGF 271106
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
606 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Another active overnight across the Plains. A north south line of
convection extends across eastern Kansas, while another area is
located from northern Arkansas into the eastern Missouri Ozarks.
Short term models show a couple of branches of the low level
jet/moisture transport feeding into these storms and this low
level jet has nosed into the forecast area but is expected to diminish
by mid morning. Thus expect convection to maintain itself through
much of the morning over the eastern Ozarks and perhaps into
the early afternoon hours. Shear is rather weak and based on
latest radar trends expect storms to be non severe, although some
locally heavy rain will be possible.

500mb low currently over eastern Colorado will move into western
Kansas later today and into Nebraska tonight. Meanwhile main surface
boundary will remain well west of the area over Kansas and Oklahoma.
Both the NAM and GFS shows low level jet/moisture transport
increasing once again ahead of the wave from eastern
Oklahoma/western Arkansas later this afternoon and evening nosing
into the Missouri Ozarks which will sustain more convection. Given
amount of convection expected this morning question will be how
much instability can be generated. Per SPC day1 outlook, area is
in a marginal risk with the main threat being large hail and
damaging winds.

Another area of convection will develop over Kansas near the
boundary this afternoon and move east, possibly developing into an
MCS affecting the forecast area overnight. Although deep layer shear
looks to be marginal severe weather will still be possible
if the storms do indeed congeal into an MCS, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. If line segments can form 0-3KM
shear vectors would favor an isolated tornado threat with any
eastward surges of the line segments, especially in the far
western areas.

Precipitable water values remain around 1.50 inches, so locally
heavy rainfall will be possible with any of the storms and could
result in some localized flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

As the main upper low moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley
region Saturday a secondary trough rotates through across the area
pushing a weak surface boundary into the Ozarks. This boundary will
then be the focus for additional thunderstorm development.
Question will be how much instability can build back after the
Friday night/ Saturday morning convection. If atmosphere has
enough time to recover will likely see a severe weather threat of
large hail and damaging winds once again.

Flow becomes more zonal later Saturday night and Sunday with weak
surface ridging building in. Low level flow remains southerly so a
moist and unstable airmass will remain in place, but no
discernible triggers for convection so will go with lower
probabilities.

By early next week flow once again becomes more southwesterly as
another trough deepens across the desert southwest, while a
closed low forms over the northern Rockies and pushes eastward
through the northern Plains through mid week. models prog a series
of shortwaves to lift through the southwest flow bringing periods
showers and thunderstorms to the area through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Precipitation from overnight convection has just about exited the
CWA to the east. Still have a frontal boundary over western CWA.
Short term and near term models want to bring convection into the
area from the southwest later this morning. Looking at regional
radar, not really buying into this scenario at the moment. Will
start to bring in vicinity shra/tsra during the afternoon as the
instability increases, but for now will leave the morning
precipitation chances out. Will mostly have VFR conditions today,
with MVFR/IFR potential within any convection that moves across
the terminal locations.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg





000
FXUS63 KSGF 270805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Another active overnight across the Plains. A north south line of
convection extends across eastern Kansas, while another area is
located from northern Arkansas into the eastern Missouri Ozarks.
Short term models show a couple of branches of the low level
jet/moisture transport feeding into these storms and this low
level jet has nosed into the forecast area but is expected to diminish
by mid morning. Thus expect convection to maintain itself through
much of the morning over the eastern Ozarks and perhaps into
the early afternoon hours. Shear is rather weak and based on
latest radar trends expect storms to be non severe, although some
locally heavy rain will be possible.

500mb low currently over eastern Colorado will move into western
Kansas later today and into Nebraska tonight. Meanwhile main surface
boundary will remain well west of the area over Kansas and Oklahoma.
Both the NAM and GFS shows low level jet/moisture transport
increasing once again ahead of the wave from eastern
Oklahoma/western Arkansas later this afternoon and evening nosing
into the Missouri Ozarks which will sustain more convection. Given
amount of convection expected this morning question will be how
much instability can be generated. Per SPC day1 outlook, area is
in a marginal risk with the main threat being large hail and
damaging winds.

Another area of convection will develop over Kansas near the
boundary this afternoon and move east, possibly developing into an
MCS affecting the forecast area overnight. Although deep layer shear
looks to be marginal severe weather will still be possible
if the storms do indeed congeal into an MCS, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. If line segments can form 0-3KM
shear vectors would favor an isolated tornado threat with any
eastward surges of the line segments, especially in the far
western areas.

Precipitable water values remain around 1.50 inches, so locally
heavy rainfall will be possible with any of the storms and could
result in some localized flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

As the main upper low moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley
region Saturday a secondary trough rotates through across the area
pushing a weak surface boundary into the Ozarks. This boundary will
then be the focus for additional thunderstorm development.
Question will be how much instability can build back after the
Friday night/ Saturday morning convection. If atmosphere has
enough time to recover will likely see a severe weather threat of
large hail and damaging winds once again.

Flow becomes more zonal later Saturday night and Sunday with weak
surface ridging building in. Low level flow remains southerly so a
moist and unstable airmass will remain in place, but no
discernible triggers for convection so will go with lower
probabilities.

By early next week flow once again becomes more southwesterly as
another trough deepens across the desert southwest, while a
closed low forms over the northern Rockies and pushes eastward
through the northern Plains through mid week. models prog a series
of shortwaves to lift through the southwest flow bringing periods
showers and thunderstorms to the area through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convection has lifted north of the area in the near term.
Generally seeing vfr ceilings. Some hint in the guidance at mvfr
ceilings toward 12z for a brief period. Additional convection
will be possible toward and after12z from storms moving east and
northeast out of the Plains.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA





000
FXUS63 KSGF 262037
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
337 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A break in the convection is occurring across extreme southeastern
Kansas and southwestern Missouri early this afternoon. The
convection that tracked across portions of the Missouri Ozarks
this morning has spread to the east and is slowly tracking across
southeastern Kansas. Additional storms have developed across
central Kansas into northwestern Missouri this afternoon along
with storms developing across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas.

The upper level low remains across the southwestern U.S. and will
slowly lift into the plains on Friday. As a result the active
weather pattern continues as the storms develop across the
region.

This afternoon a very unstable air mass has developed across the
area as temperatures have warmed into the middle 80s with dew
points in the lower 70s. MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg have
developed across the area. Deep layer shear is not as strong
though with values around 20kt. Theta-E Difference are also on the
high side with values of 30 to 40 Kelvin.

The storms across Arkansas will continue to lift north this
afternoon with convection developing from south to north across
the area. Given the amount of instability in place an elevated
severe risk will occur across the entire area. Deep layer shear is
not overly strong, but still the 20kt of 0-6km bulk shear values
combined with the very unstable air mass will result in the
potential for storms capable of hail up to the size of golf
balls. Also, the high theta-E difference will lead to a damaging
wind risk with wind gusts over 60 mph. Low level shear is on the
weak side which will limit the tornado risk.

We will also have to watch the convection across Kansas as it may
try to develop into a MCS and could track into the area overnight.
Damaging winds and hail up to quarters will be possible with a few
of the stronger storms.

Storms will continue to be possible on Friday as a wave tracks
through the area ahead of the main upper level low. The
convection will limit temperatures and instability with highs in
the middle 70s. Deep layer shear will increase some on Friday, but
instability being weaker will limit a widespread severe weather
risk. Still a few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible.

Give the multiple rounds of storms and high perceptible water
values, locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be
possible this evening into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The main upper level low will remain west of the area on Friday
and additional storms are expected to develop across western
Kansas ahead of the main low. These storms should develop into a
complex of storms and track east towards and through the area
Friday night into early Saturday morning. 0-3km bulk shear values
will be 30kt from west to east which will support a line moving
into the area. This would support a damaging wind risk and the
potential for meso vortices developing with any surges in the line
to the east. The question is just exactly where this MCS develops
and then tracks which will determine which locations are impacted
or not.

Saturday should clear out after the morning convection and should
see the atmosphere recover and more instability should develop.
The upper level wave will be lifting through the area and deep
layer shear will increase. A boundary will push east through the
area and expect storms to develop along the boundary, and could be
in the form of supercells. Large hail to golf balls will be the
main risk along with a damaging wind risk. Low level shear appears
to remain on the low side which will limit the tornado risk. Most
of Saturday will be dry until scattered storms develop later in
the afternoon to the early evening hours.

The upper level low will spread east of the area on Sunday but the
boundary will stall near the Arkansas boundary and a few storms
will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours both
Sunday and Monday afternoons, but both days will have extended dry
periods and will not be washouts by any means.

Another upper level low will move on the west coast and slowly
spread east through next week. As a result the active weather
pattern will continue next week with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected. There will be dry periods between rounds
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Expect mainly MVFR to VFR conditions this afternoon with scattered
storms developing toward late afternoon and evening. Better
chances for more widespread rain and storms will occur late
evening into overnight hours however confidence is still low on
the placement of storms. Winds will generally be out of the south
and gusty this afternoon.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield





000
FXUS63 KSGF 260502
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper level low over southern California is expected to make its
way into southern Colorado by 00z Friday. The surface front is
situated from a low over northern South Dakota into a second low
over south central Kansas with a dryline extending into west
Texas.

The convection from earlier today has worked over the atmosphere
pretty well. As such...will keep PoPs low as not much around but
a few outflow boundaries to act as a trigger and convection would
be isolated to widely scattered at best.

The surface front on Thursday meanders on the northern end but
does not make much progress on the southern end. So...despite and
warm and unstable air mass across the region...the lack of a
triggering mechanism will limit both the intensity and coverage of
any convection

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

As we move into late week...the upper low out west will lift into
the northern plains. This combined with a low level jet forming
over Oklahoma overnight on Thursday...could allow storms over the
central plains to make it into our area. A few of these storms
have the potential to become severe with damaging winds and large
hail being the primary threat.

For the Memorial Day weekend...the upper low continues to lift
into southern Canada taking the surface front with it as well.
Without an actual frontal passage...the area remains within the
warm sector. With a series of impulses moving through the upper
level southwest flow pattern...scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain a possibility as well. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal normal.

By Monday evening into Tuesday...a new cutoff low forms over
southern California keeping the area within southwest flow under a
warm and humid air mass which will continue the current pattern
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Lowering ceilings with abundant
moisture in the low levels are occurring with mvfr and ifr
ceilings becoming more common over southern MO. We should continue
to see lowering ceiling over the next few hours before a gradual
improvement after 15z. Thunderstorm activity to the north will
need to be monitored with some guidance dropping it southeast into
parts of the during or just after the 12z-15z time frame.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...DSA





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