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000
FXUS63 KSGF 181946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The weather will be mostly quiet for the rest of the afternoon and
tonight. The only thing to watch for is the possibility of fog
development...especially areas that saw rainfall this morning.
Temperatures will be close to the crossover temperatures later
this evening and tonight. Will mention at least patchy fog tonight
but could be a little more widespread than that. Just something to
watch for trends this evening.

Upper level high pressure builds in for Friday into early Saturday
with above average temperatures in the 80s and a little more
sunshine. Clouds will increase late in the day on Saturday with
the advancing cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

There are no changes in the forecast thinking for this weekend and
into next week. A cold front will move through the area Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. The main energy of the trough
will miss the area to the northeast and the leftover moisture from
the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. will stay
south.

A broken line of showers and storms will develop along and ahead
of the front Saturday night and end from north to south early
Sunday morning. No severe weather expected. Skies will clear by
Sunday afternoon. Canadian high pressure will keep the weather
pattern seasonable and dry for the early and middle part of next
week just in time for the beginning of Autumn early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Pilots can expect variable flight conditions at area terminals
today and tonight. MVFR ceilings will impact the area at times
today. MVFR and even IFR ceilings are expected to become prevalent tonight
into Friday morning. In addition to low ceilings, areas of light
fog are expected late tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The weather will be mostly quiet for the rest of the afternoon and
tonight. The only thing to watch for is the possibility of fog
development...especially areas that saw rainfall this morning.
Temperatures will be close to the crossover temperatures later
this evening and tonight. Will mention at least patchy fog tonight
but could be a little more widespread than that. Just something to
watch for trends this evening.

Upper level high pressure builds in for Friday into early Saturday
with above average temperatures in the 80s and a little more
sunshine. Clouds will increase late in the day on Saturday with
the advancing cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

There are no changes in the forecast thinking for this weekend and
into next week. A cold front will move through the area Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. The main energy of the trough
will miss the area to the northeast and the leftover moisture from
the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. will stay
south.

A broken line of showers and storms will develop along and ahead
of the front Saturday night and end from north to south early
Sunday morning. No severe weather expected. Skies will clear by
Sunday afternoon. Canadian high pressure will keep the weather
pattern seasonable and dry for the early and middle part of next
week just in time for the beginning of Autumn early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Pilots can expect variable flight conditions at area terminals
today and tonight. MVFR ceilings will impact the area at times
today. MVFR and even IFR ceilings are expected to become prevalent tonight
into Friday morning. In addition to low ceilings, areas of light
fog are expected late tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181730
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Pilots can expect variable flight conditions at area terminals
today and tonight. MVFR ceilings will impact the area at times
today. MVFR and even IFR ceilings are expected to become prevalent tonight
into Friday morning. In addition to low ceilings, areas of light
fog are expected late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181730
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Pilots can expect variable flight conditions at area terminals
today and tonight. MVFR ceilings will impact the area at times
today. MVFR and even IFR ceilings are expected to become prevalent tonight
into Friday morning. In addition to low ceilings, areas of light
fog are expected late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Cloud cover remains over the region with IFR ceilings along the
plateau affecting KSGF. Stratus with embedded occasional thunder
storms will affect area terminals through this morning. The
stratus and rain effectively dissipated the IFR fog in the KBBG
aerodrome, however will need to watch the terminal for recurring
fog as the rain shifts out of the region. Generally slowly
improving conditions are expected into the afternoon and evening.
A return of IFR visibilities in fog is anticipated for Friday
morning as an upper level ridge moves overhead.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     091-092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch










000
FXUS63 KSGF 181150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Cloud cover remains over the region with IFR ceilings along the
plateau affecting KSGF. Stratus with embedded occasional thunder
storms will affect area terminals through this morning. The
stratus and rain effectively dissipated the IFR fog in the KBBG
aerodrome, however will need to watch the terminal for recurring
fog as the rain shifts out of the region. Generally slowly
improving conditions are expected into the afternoon and evening.
A return of IFR visibilities in fog is anticipated for Friday
morning as an upper level ridge moves overhead.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     091-092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 180904
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
404 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Fog has developed in a more organized fashion along and south of
the plateau, with BBG at 1/4 for the past hour or so. To the
northwest, stratus has maintained itself, for the most part in the
MVFR to low end VFR range. Will continue to watch for fog
potential at SGF given moist surface conditions. Starting to see
tonight`s band of storms set up. Generally in a northwest to south
east fashion from near Fort Scott, KS to just west of BBG. For
areas along and west of this band (including JLN) scattered to
numerous storms are expected with IFR restrictions beneath the
heavier downpours. Activity may briefly shunt eastward enough to
affect SGF/BBG, but this shouldn`t be until around/after sunrise.
This activity will dissipate through the morning hours with flight
conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     091-092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 180904
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
404 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Fog has developed in a more organized fashion along and south of
the plateau, with BBG at 1/4 for the past hour or so. To the
northwest, stratus has maintained itself, for the most part in the
MVFR to low end VFR range. Will continue to watch for fog
potential at SGF given moist surface conditions. Starting to see
tonight`s band of storms set up. Generally in a northwest to south
east fashion from near Fort Scott, KS to just west of BBG. For
areas along and west of this band (including JLN) scattered to
numerous storms are expected with IFR restrictions beneath the
heavier downpours. Activity may briefly shunt eastward enough to
affect SGF/BBG, but this shouldn`t be until around/after sunrise.
This activity will dissipate through the morning hours with flight
conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     091-092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 180511 AAC
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Mesoscale Discussion and Update to Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Convection beginning to show its cards in the past half hour with
a band of storms lining up from Manhattan, KS to Fort Scott, KS to
near Crane, MO. A very modest low level jet is producing just
enough isentropic upglide near the 310 K layer that is tapping
into elevated CAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range to produce this
activity. Training of storms will be the main concern tonight,
with a risk for flash flooding in areas that encounter numerous
storm passages. Otherwise, there is a risk for hail, mainly in the
dime/nickel range, though occasionally reaching low end severe
limits. This activity is rather elevated, thus the wind risk is
low.

Fog has become more prevalent in areas along and southeast of the
plateau during the past hour. Have hoisted the dense fog advisory
in these areas with visibility frequently being reduced to one
quarter mile or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today`s situation very well and confidence in
tonight`s forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Fog has developed in a more organized fashion along and south of
the plateau, with BBG at 1/4 for the past hour or so. To the
northwest, stratus has maintained itself, for the most part in the
MVFR to low end VFR range. Will continue to watch for fog
potential at SGF given moist surface conditions. Starting to see
tonight`s band of storms set up. Generally in a northwest to south
east fashion from near Fort Scott, KS to just west of BBG. For
areas along and west of this band (including JLN) scattered to
numerous storms are expected with IFR restrictions beneath the
heavier downpours. Activity may briefly shunt eastward enough to
affect SGF/BBG, but this shouldn`t be until around/after sunrise.
This activity will dissipate through the morning hours with flight
conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ082-083-091-
     092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 180244 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
944 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 944 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Radar trends over the past hour have been somewhat enlightening as
a small cluster of storms has developed around Vernon county. This
area is near a low level theta-e boundary, weak isentropic upglide
around the 310K level and just enough elevated instability to get a
kick. Additional cells have been trying to develop upstream,
though they have been slow to intensify at this point. So far we
have seen cells that move east weakening rather quick, a sign that
this activity is developing right along an instability gradient.
As a result, we will continue to watch extreme southeastern Kansas
and far western Missouri for continued development for the rest of
tonight. In addition, we will be watching for any development over
Kansas. Short term convection allowing models continue to insist
on a complex developing in central Kansas, sliding to the
southeast with time. Thus far this has not developed, but the
potential remains.

In addition, we continue to get sporadic reports of locally dense
fog. Not too surprising given the heavy rains from earlier today.
Though to this point this fog remains rather localized/spotty.
Will continue to monitor fog development in case an advisory is
required.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today`s situation very well and confidence in
tonight`s forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Very complicated forecast for tonight. There is a conditional risk
for fog at all sites, especially SGF/BBG where heavy rain fell
today. There are also signals for another complex of storms to
clip the area late tonight. If these storms do materialize, fog
will be a lesser risk. If we can stay clear, fog will be a much
greater risk. Much will depend on the evolution of mesoscale (and
finer) details in the next few hours. Will utilize amendments to
change course if/when needed. If fog is the winner tonight and
storms do not materialize, LIFR conditions are possible, gradually
improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning. VFR is
expected Thursday afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 180244 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
944 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 944 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Radar trends over the past hour have been somewhat enlightening as
a small cluster of storms has developed around Vernon county. This
area is near a low level theta-e boundary, weak isentropic upglide
around the 310K level and just enough elevated instability to get a
kick. Additional cells have been trying to develop upstream,
though they have been slow to intensify at this point. So far we
have seen cells that move east weakening rather quick, a sign that
this activity is developing right along an instability gradient.
As a result, we will continue to watch extreme southeastern Kansas
and far western Missouri for continued development for the rest of
tonight. In addition, we will be watching for any development over
Kansas. Short term convection allowing models continue to insist
on a complex developing in central Kansas, sliding to the
southeast with time. Thus far this has not developed, but the
potential remains.

In addition, we continue to get sporadic reports of locally dense
fog. Not too surprising given the heavy rains from earlier today.
Though to this point this fog remains rather localized/spotty.
Will continue to monitor fog development in case an advisory is
required.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today`s situation very well and confidence in
tonight`s forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Very complicated forecast for tonight. There is a conditional risk
for fog at all sites, especially SGF/BBG where heavy rain fell
today. There are also signals for another complex of storms to
clip the area late tonight. If these storms do materialize, fog
will be a lesser risk. If we can stay clear, fog will be a much
greater risk. Much will depend on the evolution of mesoscale (and
finer) details in the next few hours. Will utilize amendments to
change course if/when needed. If fog is the winner tonight and
storms do not materialize, LIFR conditions are possible, gradually
improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning. VFR is
expected Thursday afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 172349 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Mesoscale Discussion and Updated Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Convection continues to propagate southwestward with time with
nearly all activity across northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern
Arkansas. Aside from a few lingering storms across far
southwestern Missouri, most locations will likely be dry for most
if not all of the evening.

Concerns are two fold for after midnight. First, will we see
redevelopment of showers and storms over northwestern Kansas and
second, the potential for fog development.

Recent runs of the HRRR have been handling ongoing activity fairly
well. These runs indicate another batch of storms developing over
northwestern Kansas later this evening and then riding a low level
boundary southeast toward the area. MUCAPE looks best to our
southwest, and this is likely where the bulk of any activity that
does develop will move. Unlike last night, the low level jet
tonight does not look nearly as impressive. In fact it is rather
ill defined, giving credence to any complex of storms propagating
closer to where the better instability will reside. That said, we
still cannot rule out a complex of storms clipping the
southwestern portion of the outlook area later tonight into
Thursday morning. It should be noted that several convection-
allowing short term models do not develop any activity. The 18z
NAM is by far an outlier and initialized quite poorly. As a
result, this model is discounted.

As far as fog potential is concerned, this is a conditional risk
based on whether or not we see an additional complex of storms, or
at least high level "blow off" clouds from a complex just to our
west. LAMP and MOS are insistent in developing fog across much of
the area. If we can clear out, certainly areas where rain fell
today will be prone to fog development. In addition, it appears
cross over temperatures will be exceeded across central Missouri.
This strongly suggests fog development if skies can remain clear.
Will continue to monitor observations and incoming near term model
runs to refine the risks of both the fog and rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today`s situation very well and confidence in
tonight`s forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Very complicated forecast for tonight. There is a conditional risk
for fog at all sites, especially SGF/BBG where heavy rain fell
today. There are also signals for another complex of storms to
clip the area late tonight. If these storms do materialize, fog
will be a lesser risk. If we can stay clear, fog will be a much
greater risk. Much will depend on the evolution of mesoscale (and
finer) details in the next few hours. Will utilize amendments to
change course if/when needed. If fog is the winner tonight and
storms do not materialize, LIFR conditions are possible, gradually
improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning. VFR is
expected Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 172349 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Mesoscale Discussion and Updated Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Convection continues to propagate southwestward with time with
nearly all activity across northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern
Arkansas. Aside from a few lingering storms across far
southwestern Missouri, most locations will likely be dry for most
if not all of the evening.

Concerns are two fold for after midnight. First, will we see
redevelopment of showers and storms over northwestern Kansas and
second, the potential for fog development.

Recent runs of the HRRR have been handling ongoing activity fairly
well. These runs indicate another batch of storms developing over
northwestern Kansas later this evening and then riding a low level
boundary southeast toward the area. MUCAPE looks best to our
southwest, and this is likely where the bulk of any activity that
does develop will move. Unlike last night, the low level jet
tonight does not look nearly as impressive. In fact it is rather
ill defined, giving credence to any complex of storms propagating
closer to where the better instability will reside. That said, we
still cannot rule out a complex of storms clipping the
southwestern portion of the outlook area later tonight into
Thursday morning. It should be noted that several convection-
allowing short term models do not develop any activity. The 18z
NAM is by far an outlier and initialized quite poorly. As a
result, this model is discounted.

As far as fog potential is concerned, this is a conditional risk
based on whether or not we see an additional complex of storms, or
at least high level "blow off" clouds from a complex just to our
west. LAMP and MOS are insistent in developing fog across much of
the area. If we can clear out, certainly areas where rain fell
today will be prone to fog development. In addition, it appears
cross over temperatures will be exceeded across central Missouri.
This strongly suggests fog development if skies can remain clear.
Will continue to monitor observations and incoming near term model
runs to refine the risks of both the fog and rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today`s situation very well and confidence in
tonight`s forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Very complicated forecast for tonight. There is a conditional risk
for fog at all sites, especially SGF/BBG where heavy rain fell
today. There are also signals for another complex of storms to
clip the area late tonight. If these storms do materialize, fog
will be a lesser risk. If we can stay clear, fog will be a much
greater risk. Much will depend on the evolution of mesoscale (and
finer) details in the next few hours. Will utilize amendments to
change course if/when needed. If fog is the winner tonight and
storms do not materialize, LIFR conditions are possible, gradually
improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning. VFR is
expected Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171957
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today`s situation very well and confidence in
tonight`s forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thunderstorms will again affect the SGF terminal early this
afternoon. Additional storms will be possible at both SGF and BBG
later this afternoon into this evening. A few showers can be
expected at JLN as well, though most activity should stay to their
east. Periods of IFR vis and cigs can be expected with any
thunderstorms.

Showers/storms should give way to IFR to LIFR fog and low stratus
tonight through mid morning tomorrow at SGF and BBG. Vis and cigs
approaching airport mins will be possible, especially at BBG.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171957
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today`s situation very well and confidence in
tonight`s forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thunderstorms will again affect the SGF terminal early this
afternoon. Additional storms will be possible at both SGF and BBG
later this afternoon into this evening. A few showers can be
expected at JLN as well, though most activity should stay to their
east. Periods of IFR vis and cigs can be expected with any
thunderstorms.

Showers/storms should give way to IFR to LIFR fog and low stratus
tonight through mid morning tomorrow at SGF and BBG. Vis and cigs
approaching airport mins will be possible, especially at BBG.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171712
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Several areas/clusters of elevated thunderstorms continue to develop
and drop southeast across the central portions of the forecast area
late this morning.  While not quite as organized or widespread as
the early morning storms, torrential rainfall and frequent lightning will
remain likely with the heaviest activity.

Low level jet induced lift should weaken through 1 PM, with a
corresponding downward trend in convective strength and coverage
expected with time. With a warm front still in the area and
several ripples in the flow aloft making their way through,
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon
hours today across the region. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and
some small hail will be possible. Given this morning`s heavy rain,
a limited to elevated flood threat will continue, especially if
additional storms move over the same areas that saw the heaviest
rain this morning.

Temperatures will also remain tricky this afternoon given such a
sharp gradient with the rainfall and associated cloud cover.  Areas
west of Springfield should warm into the mid 80s without much
trouble.  Areas east will remain in the 60s and low 70s given
rainfall and abundant cloud cover.  Confidence in temperatures is
lowest for the Springfield area and U.S. 65 corridor, where the
gradient will be sharpest. For now haven`t made any major changes to
temperatures, other than to sharpen the gradient across the central
portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thunderstorms will again affect the SGF terminal early this
afternoon. Additional storms will be possible at both SGF and BBG
later this afternoon into this evening. A few showers can be
expected at JLN as well, though most activity should stay to their
east. Periods of IFR vis and cigs can be expected with any
thunderstorms.

Showers/storms should give way to IFR to LIFR fog and low stratus
tonight through mid morning tomorrow at SGF and BBG. Vis and cigs
approaching airport mins will be possible, especially at BBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171712
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Several areas/clusters of elevated thunderstorms continue to develop
and drop southeast across the central portions of the forecast area
late this morning.  While not quite as organized or widespread as
the early morning storms, torrential rainfall and frequent lightning will
remain likely with the heaviest activity.

Low level jet induced lift should weaken through 1 PM, with a
corresponding downward trend in convective strength and coverage
expected with time. With a warm front still in the area and
several ripples in the flow aloft making their way through,
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon
hours today across the region. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and
some small hail will be possible. Given this morning`s heavy rain,
a limited to elevated flood threat will continue, especially if
additional storms move over the same areas that saw the heaviest
rain this morning.

Temperatures will also remain tricky this afternoon given such a
sharp gradient with the rainfall and associated cloud cover.  Areas
west of Springfield should warm into the mid 80s without much
trouble.  Areas east will remain in the 60s and low 70s given
rainfall and abundant cloud cover.  Confidence in temperatures is
lowest for the Springfield area and U.S. 65 corridor, where the
gradient will be sharpest. For now haven`t made any major changes to
temperatures, other than to sharpen the gradient across the central
portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thunderstorms will again affect the SGF terminal early this
afternoon. Additional storms will be possible at both SGF and BBG
later this afternoon into this evening. A few showers can be
expected at JLN as well, though most activity should stay to their
east. Periods of IFR vis and cigs can be expected with any
thunderstorms.

Showers/storms should give way to IFR to LIFR fog and low stratus
tonight through mid morning tomorrow at SGF and BBG. Vis and cigs
approaching airport mins will be possible, especially at BBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Short Term Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Several areas/clusters of elevated thunderstorms continue to develop
and drop southeast across the central portions of the forecast area
late this morning.  While not quite as organized or widespread as
the early morning storms, torrential rainfall and frequent lightning will
remain likely with the heaviest activity.

Low level jet induced lift should weaken through 1 PM, with a
corresponding downward trend in convective strength and coverage
expected with time. With a warm front still in the area and
several ripples in the flow aloft making their way through,
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon
hours today across the region. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and
some small hail will be possible. Given this morning`s heavy rain,
a limited to elevated flood threat will continue, especially if
additional storms move over the same areas that saw the heaviest
rain this morning.

Temperatures will also remain tricky this afternoon given such a
sharp gradient with the rainfall and associated cloud cover.  Areas
west of Springfield should warm into the mid 80s without much
trouble.  Areas east will remain in the 60s and low 70s given
rainfall and abundant cloud cover.  Confidence in temperatures is
lowest for the Springfield area and U.S. 65 corridor, where the
gradient will be sharpest. For now haven`t made any major changes to
temperatures, other than to sharpen the gradient across the central
portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A rather complex forecast over the next 24 hours for aviators
flying into Ozarks region terminals. Ongoing thunderstorms will
begin to impact the Springfield aerodrome around 12z this morning.
Ongoing limiting visibilities and ceiling will keep IFR conditions
in place for both Springfield and Branson through the morning
hours. Some improvement is possible with MVFR flight conditions
this afternoon into the evening, though there remains the
potential for additional storms. Flight conditions will then
deteriorate once again overnight as fog and low stratus build back
across the region. expect MVFR to IFR conditions after 06z through
most of the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Short Term Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Several areas/clusters of elevated thunderstorms continue to develop
and drop southeast across the central portions of the forecast area
late this morning.  While not quite as organized or widespread as
the early morning storms, torrential rainfall and frequent lightning will
remain likely with the heaviest activity.

Low level jet induced lift should weaken through 1 PM, with a
corresponding downward trend in convective strength and coverage
expected with time. With a warm front still in the area and
several ripples in the flow aloft making their way through,
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon
hours today across the region. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and
some small hail will be possible. Given this morning`s heavy rain,
a limited to elevated flood threat will continue, especially if
additional storms move over the same areas that saw the heaviest
rain this morning.

Temperatures will also remain tricky this afternoon given such a
sharp gradient with the rainfall and associated cloud cover.  Areas
west of Springfield should warm into the mid 80s without much
trouble.  Areas east will remain in the 60s and low 70s given
rainfall and abundant cloud cover.  Confidence in temperatures is
lowest for the Springfield area and U.S. 65 corridor, where the
gradient will be sharpest. For now haven`t made any major changes to
temperatures, other than to sharpen the gradient across the central
portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A rather complex forecast over the next 24 hours for aviators
flying into Ozarks region terminals. Ongoing thunderstorms will
begin to impact the Springfield aerodrome around 12z this morning.
Ongoing limiting visibilities and ceiling will keep IFR conditions
in place for both Springfield and Branson through the morning
hours. Some improvement is possible with MVFR flight conditions
this afternoon into the evening, though there remains the
potential for additional storms. Flight conditions will then
deteriorate once again overnight as fog and low stratus build back
across the region. expect MVFR to IFR conditions after 06z through
most of the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Short Term Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Several areas/clusters of elevated thunderstorms continue to develop
and drop southeast across the central portions of the forecast area
late this morning.  While not quite as organized or widespread as
the early morning storms, torrential rainfall and frequent lightning will
remain likely with the heaviest activity.

Low level jet induced lift should weaken through 1 PM, with a
corresponding downward trend in convective strength and coverage
expected with time. With a warm front still in the area and
several ripples in the flow aloft making their way through,
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon
hours today across the region. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and
some small hail will be possible. Given this morning`s heavy rain,
a limited to elevated flood threat will continue, especially if
additional storms move over the same areas that saw the heaviest
rain this morning.

Temperatures will also remain tricky this afternoon given such a
sharp gradient with the rainfall and associated cloud cover.  Areas
west of Springfield should warm into the mid 80s without much
trouble.  Areas east will remain in the 60s and low 70s given
rainfall and abundant cloud cover.  Confidence in temperatures is
lowest for the Springfield area and U.S. 65 corridor, where the
gradient will be sharpest. For now haven`t made any major changes to
temperatures, other than to sharpen the gradient across the central
portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A rather complex forecast over the next 24 hours for aviators
flying into Ozarks region terminals. Ongoing thunderstorms will
begin to impact the Springfield aerodrome around 12z this morning.
Ongoing limiting visibilities and ceiling will keep IFR conditions
in place for both Springfield and Branson through the morning
hours. Some improvement is possible with MVFR flight conditions
this afternoon into the evening, though there remains the
potential for additional storms. Flight conditions will then
deteriorate once again overnight as fog and low stratus build back
across the region. expect MVFR to IFR conditions after 06z through
most of the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Short Term Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Several areas/clusters of elevated thunderstorms continue to develop
and drop southeast across the central portions of the forecast area
late this morning.  While not quite as organized or widespread as
the early morning storms, torrential rainfall and frequent lightning will
remain likely with the heaviest activity.

Low level jet induced lift should weaken through 1 PM, with a
corresponding downward trend in convective strength and coverage
expected with time. With a warm front still in the area and
several ripples in the flow aloft making their way through,
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon
hours today across the region. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and
some small hail will be possible. Given this morning`s heavy rain,
a limited to elevated flood threat will continue, especially if
additional storms move over the same areas that saw the heaviest
rain this morning.

Temperatures will also remain tricky this afternoon given such a
sharp gradient with the rainfall and associated cloud cover.  Areas
west of Springfield should warm into the mid 80s without much
trouble.  Areas east will remain in the 60s and low 70s given
rainfall and abundant cloud cover.  Confidence in temperatures is
lowest for the Springfield area and U.S. 65 corridor, where the
gradient will be sharpest. For now haven`t made any major changes to
temperatures, other than to sharpen the gradient across the central
portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A rather complex forecast over the next 24 hours for aviators
flying into Ozarks region terminals. Ongoing thunderstorms will
begin to impact the Springfield aerodrome around 12z this morning.
Ongoing limiting visibilities and ceiling will keep IFR conditions
in place for both Springfield and Branson through the morning
hours. Some improvement is possible with MVFR flight conditions
this afternoon into the evening, though there remains the
potential for additional storms. Flight conditions will then
deteriorate once again overnight as fog and low stratus build back
across the region. expect MVFR to IFR conditions after 06z through
most of the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A rather complex forecast over the next 24 hours for aviators
flying into Ozarks region terminals. Ongoing thunderstorms will
begin to impact the Springfield aerodrome around 12z this morning.
Ongoing limiting visibilities and ceiling will keep IFR conditions
in place for both Springfield and Branson through the morning
hours. Some improvement is possible with MVFR flight conditions
this afternoon into the evening, though there remains the
potential for additional storms. Flight conditions will then
deteriorate once again overnight as fog and low stratus build back
across the region. expect MVFR to IFR conditions after 06z through
most of the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A rather complex forecast over the next 24 hours for aviators
flying into Ozarks region terminals. Ongoing thunderstorms will
begin to impact the Springfield aerodrome around 12z this morning.
Ongoing limiting visibilities and ceiling will keep IFR conditions
in place for both Springfield and Branson through the morning
hours. Some improvement is possible with MVFR flight conditions
this afternoon into the evening, though there remains the
potential for additional storms. Flight conditions will then
deteriorate once again overnight as fog and low stratus build back
across the region. expect MVFR to IFR conditions after 06z through
most of the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 170814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure over eastern Missouri and Illinois will continue to
slide eastward as a warm front approaches the area from the
southwest and a weak upper level disturbance approaches from the
northwest. An area of low cloudiness over northern Arkansas and
southern Missouri will continue to bring VFR ceilings and possible
VFR forward visibility to BBG and possibly SGF into tonight while
a ridge of high pressure still dominates the area. A more
extensive area of cloudiness will likely develop late tonight due
to radiational cooling and moisture advection into the area.
Toward dawn shower and some thunderstorm activity will likely
develop across southwestern Missouri. This showery pattern will
likely persist well into tomorrow with some more redevelopment
later in the afternoon possible as a second impulse approaches
from the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Colucci








000
FXUS63 KSGF 170814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Cu/accas cloud field and area of showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop between 200-230 am over east central KS into central MO in
response to increased lift/isentropic ascent from approaching
disturbance. Vertical shear, elevated instability, general
moisture advection will continue and expected an increase in
precip coverage in the near term. Best mucape values of 1000-1500
J/kg reside over the western cwfa and will support some marginally
severe hail in isolated stronger updrafts into the early daylight
hours.

Convection will weaken late this morning as the low level/850mb flow
veers/weakens. Convection in some form may last into the afternoon.
Expect to see some redevelopment late today and/or tonight as the
same general elevated convection scenario replays itself fairly
close to the same general area it is developing now.

Fog: Some areas of dense fog are noted over southern MO, mostly
due to stratus build down, and expect some areas of dense fog to
occur before widespread showers move in. The focus will likely be
in areas along and south of the higher terrain along and south of
MO Highway 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will likely be occurring to
start the period Thursday. Rising mid level heights with an
approaching ridge should suppress more widespread convection late on
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry and warm weather is expected
Friday.

Timing is the main concern for rain/tstm chances over the upcoming
weekend. Remnant weakening upper level shortwave from a tropical
system is still expected to move ene into the central/southern
Plains and phase with an approaching mid latitude shortwave by
Saturday.

00Z guidance: ECMWF looks slower versus the GEM and GFS
by about 12 hours. If the ECMWF verifies, the better chances for
precip will hold off until later Saturday night-Sunday-Sunday
night. GEM/GFS point more toward Sat afternoon/Saturday night. GFS
ensemble looks a tad slower than operational GFS, but for now went
with the cr blend, modifying onset time a bit later (Sat
afternoon).

Progressive nature of the weekend shortwave will kick out the
precip fairly quickly (no matter what the timing). Dry weather is
then expected Monday-Tuesday as Canadian high pressure moves into
the Midwest/Corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure over eastern Missouri and Illinois will continue to
slide eastward as a warm front approaches the area from the
southwest and a weak upper level disturbance approaches from the
northwest. An area of low cloudiness over northern Arkansas and
southern Missouri will continue to bring VFR ceilings and possible
VFR forward visibility to BBG and possibly SGF into tonight while
a ridge of high pressure still dominates the area. A more
extensive area of cloudiness will likely develop late tonight due
to radiational cooling and moisture advection into the area.
Toward dawn shower and some thunderstorm activity will likely
develop across southwestern Missouri. This showery pattern will
likely persist well into tomorrow with some more redevelopment
later in the afternoon possible as a second impulse approaches
from the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Colucci







000
FXUS63 KSGF 170433
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High Pressure over Eastern Missouri and Illinois will continue to
slide eastward as a warm front approaches the area from the
southwest and a weak upper level disturbance approaches from the
northwest. An area of low cloudiness over Northern Arkansas and
Southern Missouri will continue to bring VFR ceilings and possible
VFR forward visibility to BBG and possibly SGF into tonight while
a ridge of high pressure still dominates the area. A more
extensive area of cloudiness will likely develop late tonight due
to radiational cooling and moisture advection into the area.
Toward dawn shower and some thunderstorm activity will likely
develop across southwestern Missouri. This showery pattern will
likely persist well into tomorrow with some more redevelopment
later in the afternoon possible as a second impulse approaches
form the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Colucci








000
FXUS63 KSGF 170433
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High Pressure over Eastern Missouri and Illinois will continue to
slide eastward as a warm front approaches the area from the
southwest and a weak upper level disturbance approaches from the
northwest. An area of low cloudiness over Northern Arkansas and
Southern Missouri will continue to bring VFR ceilings and possible
VFR forward visibility to BBG and possibly SGF into tonight while
a ridge of high pressure still dominates the area. A more
extensive area of cloudiness will likely develop late tonight due
to radiational cooling and moisture advection into the area.
Toward dawn shower and some thunderstorm activity will likely
develop across southwestern Missouri. This showery pattern will
likely persist well into tomorrow with some more redevelopment
later in the afternoon possible as a second impulse approaches
form the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Colucci







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck
remains over far southern Missouri early this evening. This
stratus deck has finally started to clear over the KSGF and KJLN sties,
but remains in place across the KBBG site early this evening. This
MVFR stratus deck is expected to persist over the Branson area
this evening through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are
expected over the Joplin and Springfield areas this evening, but
this MVFR stratus deck may build back over these areas during the
overnight hours.

A warm front will lift northeast through the region as a weak upper
level disturbance tracks to the southeast through the area. As the
disturbance tracks down the front scattered thunderstorms
will developing early Wednesday morning over the region. Do not
expect storms to develop along the front until the disturbance
runs down the front which will be over or just north of the TAF
sites starting near 10Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck
remains over far southern Missouri early this evening. This
stratus deck has finally started to clear over the KSGF and KJLN sties,
but remains in place across the KBBG site early this evening. This
MVFR stratus deck is expected to persist over the Branson area
this evening through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are
expected over the Joplin and Springfield areas this evening, but
this MVFR stratus deck may build back over these areas during the
overnight hours.

A warm front will lift northeast through the region as a weak upper
level disturbance tracks to the southeast through the area. As the
disturbance tracks down the front scattered thunderstorms
will developing early Wednesday morning over the region. Do not
expect storms to develop along the front until the disturbance
runs down the front which will be over or just north of the TAF
sites starting near 10Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 162020
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster









000
FXUS63 KSGF 162000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night may be between half an
inch to an inch of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 162000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night may be between half an
inch to an inch of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 161742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 161742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 161141
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Cloud cover in place across the region behind a cold front that
moved through last night will keep the region in MVFR ceilings
through much of the day. Ceilings should lift to VFR this evening
for much of the overnight. A return of MVFR ceilings is expected
for around sunrise on Wednesday. Some convection is possible
across western Missouri late this evening into the overnight, and
have included VCTS for the Joplin aerodrome. Will need to monitor
trends later today before including terminals farther east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 160457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 152315
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front is currently
pushing south through the area early this evening. Scattered
storms did develop on the front over the the last couple hours,
but this activity is really starting to decrease in coverage as we start
to lose day time heating. The best chance for a TAF site to be
affect is the KJLN TAF site just prior to the start of the 00Z TAF
cycle with the activity expected to be south of the site by 00Z.

Behind the front winds will switch to the north through the night
becoming more northeasterly during the day Tuesday. Ceilings will
lower into the MVFR range a couple hours behind the frontal
passage and remain there overnight, with IFR ceilings expected for
a few hours early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then improve to
VFR by the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 152315
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front is currently
pushing south through the area early this evening. Scattered
storms did develop on the front over the the last couple hours,
but this activity is really starting to decrease in coverage as we start
to lose day time heating. The best chance for a TAF site to be
affect is the KJLN TAF site just prior to the start of the 00Z TAF
cycle with the activity expected to be south of the site by 00Z.

Behind the front winds will switch to the north through the night
becoming more northeasterly during the day Tuesday. Ceilings will
lower into the MVFR range a couple hours behind the frontal
passage and remain there overnight, with IFR ceilings expected for
a few hours early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then improve to
VFR by the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise








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