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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230307
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221147
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Recent ceilings have generally been
mvfr/low end vfr, and in general guidance and progged soundings
lower ceilings a bit, but generally keep them in the mvfr cat for
much of the taf period. Will see some occasional light
rain showers. Toward the end of the taf period after 23/06z, it
looks like a better setup beginning to develop for low ceilings
with increased low level moisture south of I-44 with increased
chances for showers as well. An approaching front will still be
west of the taf sites by the end of the taf period, and will
maintain gusty s-se winds and low level wind shear where
appropriate.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 220903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220007
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220007
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212034
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212034
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 211805
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Small batches of rain showers continue to develop across the
region. This activity is fighting a good bit of dry air, so
rainfall amounts will be on the light side and for the most part
more of a nuisance than anything of great quality. This general
theme of batches of light showers will persist through tonight and
into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 211805
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Small batches of rain showers continue to develop across the
region. This activity is fighting a good bit of dry air, so
rainfall amounts will be on the light side and for the most part
more of a nuisance than anything of great quality. This general
theme of batches of light showers will persist through tonight and
into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 211159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mostly MVFR ceilings are in place at
all sites north of a warm front to start the taf period and will
continue them early in the taf period with occasional
sprinkles/light rain/drizzle. Progged soundings and SREF guidance
indicate some IFR ceilings will be possible at times, particularly
at KSGF and KBBG toward 21z, but all guidance brings ceilings up
at least somewhat late in the taf period with the warm front
pulling away to the north. Deeper moisture and lower ceilings late
in the taf period looks to be just west of the taf sites over
eastern KS/OK.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 211159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mostly MVFR ceilings are in place at
all sites north of a warm front to start the taf period and will
continue them early in the taf period with occasional
sprinkles/light rain/drizzle. Progged soundings and SREF guidance
indicate some IFR ceilings will be possible at times, particularly
at KSGF and KBBG toward 21z, but all guidance brings ceilings up
at least somewhat late in the taf period with the warm front
pulling away to the north. Deeper moisture and lower ceilings late
in the taf period looks to be just west of the taf sites over
eastern KS/OK.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210845
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Low level moisture will increase overnight and into Friday morning
ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. Confidence
remains high that MVFR ceilings will develop Friday morning.
Patchy drizzle also remains possible from Friday morning into the
early afternoon. Weather models then continue to show lowering
ceilings throughout the day and into Friday evening. IFR ceilings
appear likely starting either late Friday afternoon or early
Friday evening. Scattered showers are also expected along with the
threat for isolated thunderstorms. We elected not to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs given the expected limited coverage.
Meanwhile, southeast surface winds will increase on Friday and
will be gusty from mid morning into the afternoon. Low level wind
shear will then develop by Friday evening as a low level jet
stream develops over southern Missouri.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210845
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Low level moisture will increase overnight and into Friday morning
ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. Confidence
remains high that MVFR ceilings will develop Friday morning.
Patchy drizzle also remains possible from Friday morning into the
early afternoon. Weather models then continue to show lowering
ceilings throughout the day and into Friday evening. IFR ceilings
appear likely starting either late Friday afternoon or early
Friday evening. Scattered showers are also expected along with the
threat for isolated thunderstorms. We elected not to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs given the expected limited coverage.
Meanwhile, southeast surface winds will increase on Friday and
will be gusty from mid morning into the afternoon. Low level wind
shear will then develop by Friday evening as a low level jet
stream develops over southern Missouri.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 210554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The latest short term model guidance, 00Z RAOBs, surface observations,
and satellite imagery all indicate that patchy drizzle potential
will be slower to materialize tonight. Low level moisture is
currently having a tough time coming around the Boston Mountains
in northern Arkansas. Additionally, surface dew point depressions
remain high. The 00Z KSGF RAOB indicates a rather dry layer
below 850 mb. The KLZK RAOB indicates a bit more moisture in the
lower levels, but it is still rather dry below 925 mb.

With that being said, we have delayed the onset of patchy drizzle
until late tonight across southwestern Missouri. Any threat for
drizzle will likely hold off until Friday morning across central
Missouri.

With the delayed onset, the threat for freezing drizzle overnight
looks minimal at best given that areas of southwestern Missouri
will be above freezing late tonight. We will still have to watch
areas along and northeast of a Fort Scott, Kansas to Bolivar to
Willow Springs, Missouri line early Friday morning for patchy
freezing drizzle potential. Any threat for freezing drizzle will
end by 9 AM as temperatures warm above freezing area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

After a cold start, temperatures have rebounded nicely over most
of the area. A good 25-30 degree diurnal swing has been observed
under a sunny sky. The surface ridge of high pressure is still
cutting across our eastern area, as a result temperatures should
drop quickly after sunset. Will need to watch the freezing line
carefully later tonight as shallow moisture returns to the area on
the heels of increasing southeasterly flow.

The short range models remain in good agreement for later tonight
into Friday. With a dry airmass in place at this time, concern for
widespread drizzle production is very low. That said, pockets of
patchy drizzle are still plausible after midnight and especially
as we get to daybreak Friday and thereafter. The freezing line
should begin to slowly retreat northward with time late tonight,
and accelerate north/northeast as we head into mid/late Friday
morning. At this point, the low risk for patchy freezing drizzle
will be from (roughly) a Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield and West
Plains in Missouri. If there is any patchy freezing drizzle that
materializes, accumulation will be little to none and confined to
bridges and elevated surfaces.

Friday into early Saturday will feature a period of gradually
warming temperatures. Limited moisture return will support patchy
drizzle and scattered showers, but certainly not expecting a wash
out. Enough instability will be around to support a slight chance
mention of thunder Friday night into Saturday.

By late Saturday into Saturday night, we will finally see deeper
moisture return to the area. Have maintained categorical PoPs and
continued the mention of slight chance for thunder. Temperatures
on Saturday will warm well into the 50s, with 60s by no means out
of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A vigorous wave will continue to move northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. A surface
low pressure will strengthen as it moves across Arkansas towards
Illinois. Sunday will be wet and expect breezy conditions late
Sunday into Monday with a strong pressure gradient. Another
shortwave will move across the Missouri Ozarks Sunday night to bring
additional showers before the whole system moves away from the area
early on Monday. Weekend rainfall totals will be between one and two
inches with the heaviest amounts south of I-44 across southern and
south central Missouri.

A deep trough will develop across the central U.S. for early next
week with a Canadian airmass over the region. This will bring below
average temperatures and drier conditions. With this forecast
update...Tuesday and Wednesday look fair and quiet across the region
for travelers. Highs will be in the 40s and lows at night in the
20s.

Even though Thanksgiving is just beyond this 7 day period
forecast...will mention that there is a lot of uncertainty between
the GFS and the ECMWF.  The ECMWF shows another Arctic blast and
some precip towards the end of next week while the GFS and GEM are
not indicating this. Just something on the horizon to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Low level moisture will increase overnight and into Friday morning
ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. Confidence
remains high that MVFR ceilings will develop Friday morning.
Patchy drizzle also remains possible from Friday morning into the
early afternoon. Weather models then continue to show lowering
ceilings throughout the day and into Friday evening. IFR ceilings
appear likely starting either late Friday afternoon or early
Friday evening. Scattered showers are also expected along with the
threat for isolated thunderstorms. We elected not to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs given the expected limited coverage.
Meanwhile, southeast surface winds will increase on Friday and
will be gusty from mid morning into the afternoon. Low level wind
shear will then develop by Friday evening as a low level jet
stream develops over southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The latest short term model guidance, 00Z RAOBs, surface observations,
and satellite imagery all indicate that patchy drizzle potential
will be slower to materialize tonight. Low level moisture is
currently having a tough time coming around the Boston Mountains
in northern Arkansas. Additionally, surface dew point depressions
remain high. The 00Z KSGF RAOB indicates a rather dry layer
below 850 mb. The KLZK RAOB indicates a bit more moisture in the
lower levels, but it is still rather dry below 925 mb.

With that being said, we have delayed the onset of patchy drizzle
until late tonight across southwestern Missouri. Any threat for
drizzle will likely hold off until Friday morning across central
Missouri.

With the delayed onset, the threat for freezing drizzle overnight
looks minimal at best given that areas of southwestern Missouri
will be above freezing late tonight. We will still have to watch
areas along and northeast of a Fort Scott, Kansas to Bolivar to
Willow Springs, Missouri line early Friday morning for patchy
freezing drizzle potential. Any threat for freezing drizzle will
end by 9 AM as temperatures warm above freezing area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

After a cold start, temperatures have rebounded nicely over most
of the area. A good 25-30 degree diurnal swing has been observed
under a sunny sky. The surface ridge of high pressure is still
cutting across our eastern area, as a result temperatures should
drop quickly after sunset. Will need to watch the freezing line
carefully later tonight as shallow moisture returns to the area on
the heels of increasing southeasterly flow.

The short range models remain in good agreement for later tonight
into Friday. With a dry airmass in place at this time, concern for
widespread drizzle production is very low. That said, pockets of
patchy drizzle are still plausible after midnight and especially
as we get to daybreak Friday and thereafter. The freezing line
should begin to slowly retreat northward with time late tonight,
and accelerate north/northeast as we head into mid/late Friday
morning. At this point, the low risk for patchy freezing drizzle
will be from (roughly) a Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield and West
Plains in Missouri. If there is any patchy freezing drizzle that
materializes, accumulation will be little to none and confined to
bridges and elevated surfaces.

Friday into early Saturday will feature a period of gradually
warming temperatures. Limited moisture return will support patchy
drizzle and scattered showers, but certainly not expecting a wash
out. Enough instability will be around to support a slight chance
mention of thunder Friday night into Saturday.

By late Saturday into Saturday night, we will finally see deeper
moisture return to the area. Have maintained categorical PoPs and
continued the mention of slight chance for thunder. Temperatures
on Saturday will warm well into the 50s, with 60s by no means out
of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A vigorous wave will continue to move northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. A surface
low pressure will strengthen as it moves across Arkansas towards
Illinois. Sunday will be wet and expect breezy conditions late
Sunday into Monday with a strong pressure gradient. Another
shortwave will move across the Missouri Ozarks Sunday night to bring
additional showers before the whole system moves away from the area
early on Monday. Weekend rainfall totals will be between one and two
inches with the heaviest amounts south of I-44 across southern and
south central Missouri.

A deep trough will develop across the central U.S. for early next
week with a Canadian airmass over the region. This will bring below
average temperatures and drier conditions. With this forecast
update...Tuesday and Wednesday look fair and quiet across the region
for travelers. Highs will be in the 40s and lows at night in the
20s.

Even though Thanksgiving is just beyond this 7 day period
forecast...will mention that there is a lot of uncertainty between
the GFS and the ECMWF.  The ECMWF shows another Arctic blast and
some precip towards the end of next week while the GFS and GEM are
not indicating this. Just something on the horizon to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Low level moisture will increase overnight and into Friday morning
ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. Confidence
remains high that MVFR ceilings will develop Friday morning.
Patchy drizzle also remains possible from Friday morning into the
early afternoon. Weather models then continue to show lowering
ceilings throughout the day and into Friday evening. IFR ceilings
appear likely starting either late Friday afternoon or early
Friday evening. Scattered showers are also expected along with the
threat for isolated thunderstorms. We elected not to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs given the expected limited coverage.
Meanwhile, southeast surface winds will increase on Friday and
will be gusty from mid morning into the afternoon. Low level wind
shear will then develop by Friday evening as a low level jet
stream develops over southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 210333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
933 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

...Update to Drizzle Potential Overnight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The latest short term model guidance, 00Z RAOBs, surface observations,
and satellite imagery all indicate that patchy drizzle potential
will be slower to materialize tonight. Low level moisture is
currently having a tough time coming around the Boston Mountains
in northern Arkansas. Additionally, surface dew point depressions
remain high. The 00Z KSGF RAOB indicates a rather dry layer
below 850 mb. The KLZK RAOB indicates a bit more moisture in the
lower levels, but it is still rather dry below 925 mb.

With that being said, we have delayed the onset of patchy drizzle
until late tonight across southwestern Missouri. Any threat for
drizzle will likely hold off until Friday morning across central
Missouri.

With the delayed onset, the threat for freezing drizzle overnight
looks minimal at best given that areas of southwestern Missouri
will be above freezing late tonight. We will still have to watch
areas along and northeast of a Fort Scott, Kansas to Bolivar to
Willow Springs, Missouri line early Friday morning for patchy
freezing drizzle potential. Any threat for freezing drizzle will
end by 9 AM as temperatures warm above freezing area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

After a cold start, temperatures have rebounded nicely over most
of the area. A good 25-30 degree diurnal swing has been observed
under a sunny sky. The surface ridge of high pressure is still
cutting across our eastern area, as a result temperatures should
drop quickly after sunset. Will need to watch the freezing line
carefully later tonight as shallow moisture returns to the area on
the heels of increasing southeasterly flow.

The short range models remain in good agreement for later tonight
into Friday. With a dry airmass in place at this time, concern for
widespread drizzle production is very low. That said, pockets of
patchy drizzle are still plausible after midnight and especially
as we get to daybreak Friday and thereafter. The freezing line
should begin to slowly retreat northward with time late tonight,
and accelerate north/northeast as we head into mid/late Friday
morning. At this point, the low risk for patchy freezing drizzle
will be from (roughly) a Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield and West
Plains in Missouri. If there is any patchy freezing drizzle that
materializes, accumulation will be little to none and confined to
bridges and elevated surfaces.

Friday into early Saturday will feature a period of gradually
warming temperatures. Limited moisture return will support patchy
drizzle and scattered showers, but certainly not expecting a wash
out. Enough instability will be around to support a slight chance
mention of thunder Friday night into Saturday.

By late Saturday into Saturday night, we will finally see deeper
moisture return to the area. Have maintained categorical PoPs and
continued the mention of slight chance for thunder. Temperatures
on Saturday will warm well into the 50s, with 60s by no means out
of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A vigorous wave will continue to move northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. A surface
low pressure will strengthen as it moves across Arkansas towards
Illinois. Sunday will be wet and expect breezy conditions late
Sunday into Monday with a strong pressure gradient. Another
shortwave will move across the Missouri Ozarks Sunday night to bring
additional showers before the whole system moves away from the area
early on Monday. Weekend rainfall totals will be between one and two
inches with the heaviest amounts south of I-44 across southern and
south central Missouri.

A deep trough will develop across the central U.S. for early next
week with a Canadian airmass over the region. This will bring below
average temperatures and drier conditions. With this forecast
update...Tuesday and Wednesday look fair and quiet across the region
for travelers. Highs will be in the 40s and lows at night in the
20s.

Even though Thanksgiving is just beyond this 7 day period
forecast...will mention that there is a lot of uncertainty between
the GFS and the ECMWF.  The ECMWF shows another Arctic blast and
some precip towards the end of next week while the GFS and GEM are
not indicating this. Just something on the horizon to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Ceilings will lower from later tonight into Friday as low level
moisture increases from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching
upper level disturbance. Confidence is high that MVFR ceilings
will overspread the region from late tonight into Friday morning
given a strong consensus from weather models. There is also the
potential for some drizzle Friday morning, although confidence in
drizzle is much lower than the potential for MVFR. We have
therefore covered this threat with a PROB30 group down to MVFR
visibility.

Moisture is then expected to get deep enough in the
atmosphere for more in the way of scattered showers Friday
afternoon. There is an outside shot at a few thunderstorms across
southwestern Missouri in the afternoon, but we did not include
this threat in the TAFs due to low confidence. One other item we
will have to watch for late in the day is ceilings beginning to
approach IFR at Branson. Our current thinking is that any IFR
threat will hold off until after dark.

One other item to note will be brisk and gusty southeast surface
winds from later Friday morning into the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 202348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

After a cold start, temperatures have rebounded nicely over most
of the area. A good 25-30 degree diurnal swing has been observed
under a sunny sky. The surface ridge of high pressure is still
cutting across our eastern area, as a result temperatures should
drop quickly after sunset. Will need to watch the freezing line
carefully later tonight as shallow moisture returns to the area on
the heels of increasing southeasterly flow.

The short range models remain in good agreement for later tonight
into Friday. With a dry airmass in place at this time, concern for
widespread drizzle production is very low. That said, pockets of
patchy drizzle are still plausible after midnight and especially
as we get to daybreak Friday and thereafter. The freezing line
should begin to slowly retreat northward with time late tonight,
and accelerate north/northeast as we head into mid/late Friday
morning. At this point, the low risk for patchy freezing drizzle
will be from (roughly) a Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield and West
Plains in Missouri. If there is any patchy freezing drizzle that
materializes, accumulation will be little to none and confined to
bridges and elevated surfaces.

Friday into early Saturday will feature a period of gradually
warming temperatures. Limited moisture return will support patchy
drizzle and scattered showers, but certainly not expecting a wash
out. Enough instability will be around to support a slight chance
mention of thunder Friday night into Saturday.

By late Saturday into Saturday night, we will finally see deeper
moisture return to the area. Have maintained categorical PoPs and
continued the mention of slight chance for thunder. Temperatures
on Saturday will warm well into the 50s, with 60s by no means out
of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A vigorous wave will continue to move northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. A surface
low pressure will strengthen as it moves across Arkansas towards
Illinois. Sunday will be wet and expect breezy conditions late
Sunday into Monday with a strong pressure gradient. Another
shortwave will move across the Missouri Ozarks Sunday night to bring
additional showers before the whole system moves away from the area
early on Monday. Weekend rainfall totals will be between one and two
inches with the heaviest amounts south of I-44 across southern and
south central Missouri.

A deep trough will develop across the central U.S. for early next
week with a Canadian airmass over the region. This will bring below
average temperatures and drier conditions. With this forecast
update...Tuesday and Wednesday look fair and quiet across the region
for travelers. Highs will be in the 40s and lows at night in the
20s.

Even though Thanksgiving is just beyond this 7 day period
forecast...will mention that there is a lot of uncertainty between
the GFS and the ECMWF.  The ECMWF shows another Arctic blast and
some precip towards the end of next week while the GFS and GEM are
not indicating this. Just something on the horizon to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Ceilings will lower from later tonight into Friday as low level
moisture increases from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching
upper level disturbance. Confidence is high that MVFR ceilings
will overspread the region from late tonight into Friday morning
given a strong consensus from weather models. There is also the
potential for some drizzle Friday morning, although confidence in
drizzle is much lower than the potential for MVFR. We have
therefore covered this threat with a PROB30 group down to MVFR
visibility.

Moisture is then expected to get deep enough in the
atmosphere for more in the way of scattered showers Friday
afternoon. There is an outside shot at a few thunderstorms across
southwestern Missouri in the afternoon, but we did not include
this threat in the TAFs due to low confidence. One other item we
will have to watch for late in the day is ceilings beginning to
approach IFR at Branson. Our current thinking is that any IFR
threat will hold off until after dark.

One other item to note will be brisk and gusty southeast surface
winds from later Friday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 202348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

After a cold start, temperatures have rebounded nicely over most
of the area. A good 25-30 degree diurnal swing has been observed
under a sunny sky. The surface ridge of high pressure is still
cutting across our eastern area, as a result temperatures should
drop quickly after sunset. Will need to watch the freezing line
carefully later tonight as shallow moisture returns to the area on
the heels of increasing southeasterly flow.

The short range models remain in good agreement for later tonight
into Friday. With a dry airmass in place at this time, concern for
widespread drizzle production is very low. That said, pockets of
patchy drizzle are still plausible after midnight and especially
as we get to daybreak Friday and thereafter. The freezing line
should begin to slowly retreat northward with time late tonight,
and accelerate north/northeast as we head into mid/late Friday
morning. At this point, the low risk for patchy freezing drizzle
will be from (roughly) a Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield and West
Plains in Missouri. If there is any patchy freezing drizzle that
materializes, accumulation will be little to none and confined to
bridges and elevated surfaces.

Friday into early Saturday will feature a period of gradually
warming temperatures. Limited moisture return will support patchy
drizzle and scattered showers, but certainly not expecting a wash
out. Enough instability will be around to support a slight chance
mention of thunder Friday night into Saturday.

By late Saturday into Saturday night, we will finally see deeper
moisture return to the area. Have maintained categorical PoPs and
continued the mention of slight chance for thunder. Temperatures
on Saturday will warm well into the 50s, with 60s by no means out
of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A vigorous wave will continue to move northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. A surface
low pressure will strengthen as it moves across Arkansas towards
Illinois. Sunday will be wet and expect breezy conditions late
Sunday into Monday with a strong pressure gradient. Another
shortwave will move across the Missouri Ozarks Sunday night to bring
additional showers before the whole system moves away from the area
early on Monday. Weekend rainfall totals will be between one and two
inches with the heaviest amounts south of I-44 across southern and
south central Missouri.

A deep trough will develop across the central U.S. for early next
week with a Canadian airmass over the region. This will bring below
average temperatures and drier conditions. With this forecast
update...Tuesday and Wednesday look fair and quiet across the region
for travelers. Highs will be in the 40s and lows at night in the
20s.

Even though Thanksgiving is just beyond this 7 day period
forecast...will mention that there is a lot of uncertainty between
the GFS and the ECMWF.  The ECMWF shows another Arctic blast and
some precip towards the end of next week while the GFS and GEM are
not indicating this. Just something on the horizon to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Ceilings will lower from later tonight into Friday as low level
moisture increases from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching
upper level disturbance. Confidence is high that MVFR ceilings
will overspread the region from late tonight into Friday morning
given a strong consensus from weather models. There is also the
potential for some drizzle Friday morning, although confidence in
drizzle is much lower than the potential for MVFR. We have
therefore covered this threat with a PROB30 group down to MVFR
visibility.

Moisture is then expected to get deep enough in the
atmosphere for more in the way of scattered showers Friday
afternoon. There is an outside shot at a few thunderstorms across
southwestern Missouri in the afternoon, but we did not include
this threat in the TAFs due to low confidence. One other item we
will have to watch for late in the day is ceilings beginning to
approach IFR at Branson. Our current thinking is that any IFR
threat will hold off until after dark.

One other item to note will be brisk and gusty southeast surface
winds from later Friday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202031
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

After a cold start, temperatures have rebounded nicely over most
of the area. A good 25-30 degree diurnal swing has been observed
under a sunny sky. The surface ridge of high pressure is still
cutting across our eastern area, as a result temperatures should
drop quickly after sunset. Will need to watch the freezing line
carefully later tonight as shallow moisture returns to the area on
the heels of increasing southeasterly flow.

The short range models remain in good agreement for later tonight
into Friday. With a dry airmass in place at this time, concern for
widespread drizzle production is very low. That said, pockets of
patchy drizzle are still plausible after midnight and especially
as we get to daybreak Friday and thereafter. The freezing line
should begin to slowly retreat northward with time late tonight,
and accelerate north/northeast as we head into mid/late Friday
morning. At this point, the low risk for patchy freezing drizzle
will be from (roughly) a Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield and West
Plains in Missouri. If there is any patchy freezing drizzle that
materializes, accumulation will be little to none and confined to
bridges and elevated surfaces.

Friday into early Saturday will feature a period of gradually
warming temperatures. Limited moisture return will support patchy
drizzle and scattered showers, but certainly not expecting a wash
out. Enough instability will be around to support a slight chance
mention of thunder Friday night into Saturday.

By late Saturday into Saturday night, we will finally see deeper
moisture return to the area. Have maintained categorical PoPs and
continued the mention of slight chance for thunder. Temperatures
on Saturday will warm well into the 50s, with 60s by no means out
of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A vigorous wave will continue to move northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. A surface
low pressure will strengthen as it moves across Arkansas towards
Illinois. Sunday will be wet and expect breezy conditions late
Sunday into Monday with a strong pressure gradient. Another
shortwave will move across the Missouri Ozarks Sunday night to bring
additional showers before the whole system moves away from the area
early on Monday. Weekend rainfall totals will be between one and two
inches with the heaviest amounts south of I-44 across southern and
south central Missouri.

A deep trough will develop across the central U.S. for early next
week with a Canadian airmass over the region. This will bring below
average temperatures and drier conditions. With this forecast
update...Tuesday and Wednesday look fair and quiet across the region
for travelers. Highs will be in the 40s and lows at night in the
20s.

Even though Thanksgiving is just beyond this 7 day period
forecast...will mention that there is a lot of uncertainty between
the GFS and the ECMWF.  The ECMWF shows another Arctic blast and
some precip towards the end of next week while the GFS and GEM are
not indicating this. Just something on the horizon to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions will persist for the next 18 hours. Moisture will
slowly increase in the mid/high levels late this afternoon into
the overnight hours tonight. Low level moisture will arrive just
prior to daybreak Friday, in the form of a low end MVFR stratus
deck and perhaps some patchy drizzle. Stratus will persist
through the end of the TAF cycle at all sites, however will only
continue a mention of drizzle at BBG due to lower confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 202031
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

After a cold start, temperatures have rebounded nicely over most
of the area. A good 25-30 degree diurnal swing has been observed
under a sunny sky. The surface ridge of high pressure is still
cutting across our eastern area, as a result temperatures should
drop quickly after sunset. Will need to watch the freezing line
carefully later tonight as shallow moisture returns to the area on
the heels of increasing southeasterly flow.

The short range models remain in good agreement for later tonight
into Friday. With a dry airmass in place at this time, concern for
widespread drizzle production is very low. That said, pockets of
patchy drizzle are still plausible after midnight and especially
as we get to daybreak Friday and thereafter. The freezing line
should begin to slowly retreat northward with time late tonight,
and accelerate north/northeast as we head into mid/late Friday
morning. At this point, the low risk for patchy freezing drizzle
will be from (roughly) a Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield and West
Plains in Missouri. If there is any patchy freezing drizzle that
materializes, accumulation will be little to none and confined to
bridges and elevated surfaces.

Friday into early Saturday will feature a period of gradually
warming temperatures. Limited moisture return will support patchy
drizzle and scattered showers, but certainly not expecting a wash
out. Enough instability will be around to support a slight chance
mention of thunder Friday night into Saturday.

By late Saturday into Saturday night, we will finally see deeper
moisture return to the area. Have maintained categorical PoPs and
continued the mention of slight chance for thunder. Temperatures
on Saturday will warm well into the 50s, with 60s by no means out
of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A vigorous wave will continue to move northeastward across the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. A surface
low pressure will strengthen as it moves across Arkansas towards
Illinois. Sunday will be wet and expect breezy conditions late
Sunday into Monday with a strong pressure gradient. Another
shortwave will move across the Missouri Ozarks Sunday night to bring
additional showers before the whole system moves away from the area
early on Monday. Weekend rainfall totals will be between one and two
inches with the heaviest amounts south of I-44 across southern and
south central Missouri.

A deep trough will develop across the central U.S. for early next
week with a Canadian airmass over the region. This will bring below
average temperatures and drier conditions. With this forecast
update...Tuesday and Wednesday look fair and quiet across the region
for travelers. Highs will be in the 40s and lows at night in the
20s.

Even though Thanksgiving is just beyond this 7 day period
forecast...will mention that there is a lot of uncertainty between
the GFS and the ECMWF.  The ECMWF shows another Arctic blast and
some precip towards the end of next week while the GFS and GEM are
not indicating this. Just something on the horizon to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions will persist for the next 18 hours. Moisture will
slowly increase in the mid/high levels late this afternoon into
the overnight hours tonight. Low level moisture will arrive just
prior to daybreak Friday, in the form of a low end MVFR stratus
deck and perhaps some patchy drizzle. Stratus will persist
through the end of the TAF cycle at all sites, however will only
continue a mention of drizzle at BBG due to lower confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201744 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Warmer air will begin to work back into the area from the
west/southwest today with a more zonal upper level pattern setting
up across the area by late in the day. Cold surface high pressure
will still be over the area, with it`s main influence continuing
over our central MO counties. We could have a temperature range
from the upper 30s to around 40 in central MO to the low 50s over
the southwest corner of MO today.

We have been advertising the last couple of days the potential of
some freezing rain/drizzle late tonight into Friday morning and
while this has not changed, it does appear that any measurable
precipitation will hold off until Friday after 6 AM and any
freezing type precipitation would mainly affect elevated surfaces.
Even at that, warmer air will begin to quickly move northeast
into the area Friday morning and should change precipitation over
quickly to all rain as temperatures rise above freezing. However,
low level moisture will be quick to lift north into the area
tonight with some isentropic lifting taking place after midnight,
so still can`t rule out the drizzle/freezing drizzle potential
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Temperatures should quickly rise above freezing on Friday morning
for those locations that drop below freezing tonight and any
ongoing precipitation will become all rain/drizzle. The best
chance of measurable precipitation will occur during the afternoon
Friday as a weak upper level disturbance moves through from the southwest.

A deeper southern stream trough is expected to develop Friday
night over west Texas which will bring southwest flow aloft to the
area and open up the Gulf in the lower levels across the lower and
mid Mississippi valley regions. There will probably be enough
instability for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over
southern Missouri on Friday night.

The instability will spread north to the remainder of the area on
Saturday and Saturday night with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms expected within a larger area of rainfall.
Precipitation amounts appear to be on the lighter side through the
day Saturday with the majority of the convection ahead of the main
shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma. As this shortwave begins to
lift northeast into the area Saturday night, the precipitation
chances will increase quite a bit with the best chance of heavy
rainfall. This will continue into Sunday as this southern stream
shortwave becomes embedded within a larger upper level cyclone. A
cold front with this system will eventually push through the area
late Sunday and Sunday night with colder air moving into the area
from the northwest Sunday night. Any lingering precipitation
Sunday night may mix with some light snow over northwest sections
of the CWA as temperatures drop back into the 30s.

Precipitation should clear out on Monday, but will see cold air
advection throughout the day with northwest flow on the back side
of the upper level trough. The remainder of the week looks to be
dry for now with an eventual warming trend again by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions will persist for the next 18 hours. Moisture will
slowly increase in the mid/high levels late this afternoon into
the overnight hours tonight. Low level moisture will arrive just
prior to daybreak Friday, in the form of a low end MVFR stratus
deck and perhaps some patchy drizzle. Stratus will persist
through the end of the TAF cycle at all sites, however will only
continue a mention of drizzle at BBG due to lower confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201744 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Warmer air will begin to work back into the area from the
west/southwest today with a more zonal upper level pattern setting
up across the area by late in the day. Cold surface high pressure
will still be over the area, with it`s main influence continuing
over our central MO counties. We could have a temperature range
from the upper 30s to around 40 in central MO to the low 50s over
the southwest corner of MO today.

We have been advertising the last couple of days the potential of
some freezing rain/drizzle late tonight into Friday morning and
while this has not changed, it does appear that any measurable
precipitation will hold off until Friday after 6 AM and any
freezing type precipitation would mainly affect elevated surfaces.
Even at that, warmer air will begin to quickly move northeast
into the area Friday morning and should change precipitation over
quickly to all rain as temperatures rise above freezing. However,
low level moisture will be quick to lift north into the area
tonight with some isentropic lifting taking place after midnight,
so still can`t rule out the drizzle/freezing drizzle potential
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Temperatures should quickly rise above freezing on Friday morning
for those locations that drop below freezing tonight and any
ongoing precipitation will become all rain/drizzle. The best
chance of measurable precipitation will occur during the afternoon
Friday as a weak upper level disturbance moves through from the southwest.

A deeper southern stream trough is expected to develop Friday
night over west Texas which will bring southwest flow aloft to the
area and open up the Gulf in the lower levels across the lower and
mid Mississippi valley regions. There will probably be enough
instability for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over
southern Missouri on Friday night.

The instability will spread north to the remainder of the area on
Saturday and Saturday night with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms expected within a larger area of rainfall.
Precipitation amounts appear to be on the lighter side through the
day Saturday with the majority of the convection ahead of the main
shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma. As this shortwave begins to
lift northeast into the area Saturday night, the precipitation
chances will increase quite a bit with the best chance of heavy
rainfall. This will continue into Sunday as this southern stream
shortwave becomes embedded within a larger upper level cyclone. A
cold front with this system will eventually push through the area
late Sunday and Sunday night with colder air moving into the area
from the northwest Sunday night. Any lingering precipitation
Sunday night may mix with some light snow over northwest sections
of the CWA as temperatures drop back into the 30s.

Precipitation should clear out on Monday, but will see cold air
advection throughout the day with northwest flow on the back side
of the upper level trough. The remainder of the week looks to be
dry for now with an eventual warming trend again by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions will persist for the next 18 hours. Moisture will
slowly increase in the mid/high levels late this afternoon into
the overnight hours tonight. Low level moisture will arrive just
prior to daybreak Friday, in the form of a low end MVFR stratus
deck and perhaps some patchy drizzle. Stratus will persist
through the end of the TAF cycle at all sites, however will only
continue a mention of drizzle at BBG due to lower confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201133
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
533 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper pattern is undergoing some changes and will see the trough
which has been bringing us the cold air for over a week now
continue to shift east as ridging out west nudges eastward.

With the pattern change will also come warmer temperatures and
decent chances for showers/thunderstorms over the weekend and this
will be the main forecast focus with this forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Warmer air will begin to work back into the area from the
west/southwest today with a more zonal upper level pattern setting
up across the area by late in the day. Cold surface high pressure
will still be over the area, with it`s main influence continuing
over our central MO counties. We could have a temperature range
from the upper 30s to around 40 in central MO to the low 50s over
the southwest corner of MO today.

We have been advertising the last couple of days the potential of
some freezing rain/drizzle late tonight into Friday morning and
while this has not changed, it does appear that any measurable
precipitation will hold off until Friday after 6 AM and any
freezing type precipitation would mainly affect elevated surfaces.
Even at that, warmer air will begin to quickly move northeast
into the area Friday morning and should change precipitation over
quickly to all rain as temperatures rise above freezing. However,
low level moisture will be quick to lift north into the area
tonight with some isentropic lifting taking place after midnight,
so still can`t rule out the drizzle/freezing drizzle potential
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Temperatures should quickly rise above freezing on Friday morning
for those locations that drop below freezing tonight and any
ongoing precipitation will become all rain/drizzle. The best
chance of measurable precipitation will occur during the afternoon
Friday as a weak upper level disturbance moves through from the southwest.

A deeper southern stream trough is expected to develop Friday
night over west Texas which will bring southwest flow aloft to the
area and open up the Gulf in the lower levels across the lower and
mid Mississippi valley regions. There will probably be enough
instability for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over
southern Missouri on Friday night.

The instability will spread north to the remainder of the area on
Saturday and Saturday night with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms expected within a larger area of rainfall.
Precipitation amounts appear to be on the lighter side through the
day Saturday with the majority of the convection ahead of the main
shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma. As this shortwave begins to
lift northeast into the area Saturday night, the precipitation
chances will increase quite a bit with the best chance of heavy
rainfall. This will continue into Sunday as this southern stream
shortwave becomes embedded within a larger upper level cyclone. A
cold front with this system will eventually push through the area
late Sunday and Sunday night with colder air moving into the area
from the northwest Sunday night. Any lingering precipitation
Sunday night may mix with some light snow over northwest sections
of the CWA as temperatures drop back into the 30s.

Precipitation should clear out on Monday, but will see cold air
advection throughout the day with northwest flow on the back side
of the upper level trough. The remainder of the week looks to be
dry for now with an eventual warming trend again by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
experience fair weather conditions today.

Light and variable surface winds combined with sunshine will
provide ideal weather to fly in.

As we advance into tonight, winds will speed up a little from the
southeast. Toward 12z Friday, a few sprinkles or light showers
will be possible. This could lead to some MVFR conditions at the
Branson airport.

These lower ceilings will likely impact Joplin and Springfield by
mid morning Friday.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 200822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper pattern is undergoing some changes and will see the trough
which has been bringing us the cold air for over a week now
continue to shift east as ridging out west nudges eastward.

With the pattern change will also come warmer temperatures and
decent chances for showers/thunderstorms over the weekend and this
will be the main forecast focus with this forecast package.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Warmer air will begin to work back into the area from the
west/southwest today with a more zonal upper level pattern setting
up across the area by late in the day. Cold surface high pressure
will still be over the area, with it`s main influence continuing
over our central MO counties. We could have a temperature range
from the upper 30s to around 40 in central MO to the low 50s over
the southwest corner of MO today.

We have been advertising the last couple of days the potential of
some freezing rain/drizzle late tonight into Friday morning and
while this has not changed, it does appear that any measurable
precipitation will hold off until Friday after 6 AM and any
freezing type precipitation would mainly affect elevated surfaces.
Even at that, warmer air will begin to quickly move northeast
into the area Friday morning and should change precipitation over
quickly to all rain as temperatures rise above freezing. However,
low level moisture will be quick to lift north into the area
tonight with some isentropic lifting taking place after midnight,
so still can`t rule out the drizzle/freezing drizzle potential
late tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Temperatures should quickly rise above freezing on Friday morning
for those locations that drop below freezing tonight and any
ongoing precipitation will become all rain/drizzle. The best
chance of measurable precipitation will occur during the afternoon
Friday as a weak upper level disturbance moves through from the southwest.

A deeper southern stream trough is expected to develop Friday
night over west Texas which will bring southwest flow aloft to the
area and open up the Gulf in the lower levels across the lower and
mid Mississippi valley regions. There will probably be enough
instability for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over
southern Missouri on Friday night.

The instability will spread north to the remainder of the area on
Saturday and Saturday night with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms expected within a larger area of rainfall.
Precipitation amounts appear to be on the lighter side through the
day Saturday with the majority of the convection ahead of the main
shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma. As this shortwave begins to
lift northeast into the area Saturday night, the precipitation
chances will increase quite a bit with the best chance of heavy
rainfall. This will continue into Sunday as this southern stream
shortwave becomes embedded within a larger upper level cyclone. A
cold front with this system will eventually push through the area
late Sunday and Sunday night with colder air moving into the area
from the northwest Sunday night. Any lingering precipitation
Sunday night may mix with some light snow over northwest sections
of the CWA as temperatures drop back into the 30s.

Precipitation should clear out on Monday, but will see cold air
advection throughout the day with northwest flow on the back side
of the upper level trough. The remainder of the week looks to be
dry for now with an eventual warming trend again by the middle of
next week.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Thursday
morning along with light and variable winds. Clouds will then
increase later Thursday into Thursday evening as a weak upper
level disturbance approaches from the west. Ceilings will remain
in the low-end VFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 200822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper pattern is undergoing some changes and will see the trough
which has been bringing us the cold air for over a week now
continue to shift east as ridging out west nudges eastward.

With the pattern change will also come warmer temperatures and
decent chances for showers/thunderstorms over the weekend and this
will be the main forecast focus with this forecast package.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Warmer air will begin to work back into the area from the
west/southwest today with a more zonal upper level pattern setting
up across the area by late in the day. Cold surface high pressure
will still be over the area, with it`s main influence continuing
over our central MO counties. We could have a temperature range
from the upper 30s to around 40 in central MO to the low 50s over
the southwest corner of MO today.

We have been advertising the last couple of days the potential of
some freezing rain/drizzle late tonight into Friday morning and
while this has not changed, it does appear that any measurable
precipitation will hold off until Friday after 6 AM and any
freezing type precipitation would mainly affect elevated surfaces.
Even at that, warmer air will begin to quickly move northeast
into the area Friday morning and should change precipitation over
quickly to all rain as temperatures rise above freezing. However,
low level moisture will be quick to lift north into the area
tonight with some isentropic lifting taking place after midnight,
so still can`t rule out the drizzle/freezing drizzle potential
late tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Temperatures should quickly rise above freezing on Friday morning
for those locations that drop below freezing tonight and any
ongoing precipitation will become all rain/drizzle. The best
chance of measurable precipitation will occur during the afternoon
Friday as a weak upper level disturbance moves through from the southwest.

A deeper southern stream trough is expected to develop Friday
night over west Texas which will bring southwest flow aloft to the
area and open up the Gulf in the lower levels across the lower and
mid Mississippi valley regions. There will probably be enough
instability for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over
southern Missouri on Friday night.

The instability will spread north to the remainder of the area on
Saturday and Saturday night with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms expected within a larger area of rainfall.
Precipitation amounts appear to be on the lighter side through the
day Saturday with the majority of the convection ahead of the main
shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma. As this shortwave begins to
lift northeast into the area Saturday night, the precipitation
chances will increase quite a bit with the best chance of heavy
rainfall. This will continue into Sunday as this southern stream
shortwave becomes embedded within a larger upper level cyclone. A
cold front with this system will eventually push through the area
late Sunday and Sunday night with colder air moving into the area
from the northwest Sunday night. Any lingering precipitation
Sunday night may mix with some light snow over northwest sections
of the CWA as temperatures drop back into the 30s.

Precipitation should clear out on Monday, but will see cold air
advection throughout the day with northwest flow on the back side
of the upper level trough. The remainder of the week looks to be
dry for now with an eventual warming trend again by the middle of
next week.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Thursday
morning along with light and variable winds. Clouds will then
increase later Thursday into Thursday evening as a weak upper
level disturbance approaches from the west. Ceilings will remain
in the low-end VFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 200535
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A rather nice day considering the past week, with plenty of sun
and afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 40s
across central Missouri to mid 50s across far southern Missouri. A
cold front has moved through the area and the incoming colder
airmass is now just entering the northwest portion of the forecast
area.

Tonight, surface high pressure will move over the area. The
combination of light winds and a mainly clear sky will result in
lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. This high will move to the
east on Thursday and southerly winds will gradually return.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than today`s readings with
highs mainly in the 40s. Mid/high level clouds will be on the
increase during the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday will feature increasing low level
southerly flow and gradual moisture return. Still concerned at a
brief period of light freezing drizzle for areas along/northeast
of Fort Scott, KS to West Plains, MO. Confidence in having enough
moisture available to produce this freezing drizzle is still low,
so this will be something to continue to watch as we head into
tomorrow. If this freezing drizzle does develop, any accumulation
would be quite light, affecting mainly bridges/elevated surfaces.
Warm advection will continue through Friday and Friday night.
Scattered showers will develop over the area during this time
frame, with a few rumbles of thunder possible by Friday night.

Temperatures will gradually warm. The pace of warming will be
slowest across the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri,
much quicker across western portions of the area. Rainfall
accumulations into Friday night will be scattered and on the light
side as much of the moisture advection will go to moistening the
rather dry airmass in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Temperatures will continue to slowly rise on Saturday thanks to
southerly winds bringing in a moist and warmer airmass from the
Gulf of Mexico region. An upper level trough will move across the
southwestern U.S. and eject out across the south central U.S. by
Saturday. This will pick up both Pacific and Gulf of Mexico
moisture. This trough will be negatively tilted as it moves
northeastward in the Mississippi Valley Region. It will bring
soaking rainfall to the area with 1 to 2 inches likely. There will
just enough elevated instability for some thunder but no strong
convection expected. The highest and more widespread rain chances
will be Saturday night into early on Sunday.

This system begins to wrap up and surface low pressure deepen as
it moves across the Midwest. It will turn breezy late on Sunday.
After a relatively mild weekend...temperatures will begin to drop
Sunday night on the back side of the exiting low pressure. Showers
will slowly end from southwest to northeast Sunday night as the
low pressure center moves away. There is a small potential for a
few wet snow flakes to mix in late Sunday night into very early
Monday morning...indicated by the 12z ECMWF. No accumulation is
expected because temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30s.

A deep trough develops on Monday across the central U.S. This
means colder temperatures for early next week with below average
weather with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The forecast
looks dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Thursday
morning along with light and variable winds. Clouds will then
increase later Thursday into Thursday evening as a weak upper
level disturbance approaches from the west. Ceilings will remain
in the low-end VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 200535
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A rather nice day considering the past week, with plenty of sun
and afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 40s
across central Missouri to mid 50s across far southern Missouri. A
cold front has moved through the area and the incoming colder
airmass is now just entering the northwest portion of the forecast
area.

Tonight, surface high pressure will move over the area. The
combination of light winds and a mainly clear sky will result in
lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. This high will move to the
east on Thursday and southerly winds will gradually return.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than today`s readings with
highs mainly in the 40s. Mid/high level clouds will be on the
increase during the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday will feature increasing low level
southerly flow and gradual moisture return. Still concerned at a
brief period of light freezing drizzle for areas along/northeast
of Fort Scott, KS to West Plains, MO. Confidence in having enough
moisture available to produce this freezing drizzle is still low,
so this will be something to continue to watch as we head into
tomorrow. If this freezing drizzle does develop, any accumulation
would be quite light, affecting mainly bridges/elevated surfaces.
Warm advection will continue through Friday and Friday night.
Scattered showers will develop over the area during this time
frame, with a few rumbles of thunder possible by Friday night.

Temperatures will gradually warm. The pace of warming will be
slowest across the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri,
much quicker across western portions of the area. Rainfall
accumulations into Friday night will be scattered and on the light
side as much of the moisture advection will go to moistening the
rather dry airmass in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Temperatures will continue to slowly rise on Saturday thanks to
southerly winds bringing in a moist and warmer airmass from the
Gulf of Mexico region. An upper level trough will move across the
southwestern U.S. and eject out across the south central U.S. by
Saturday. This will pick up both Pacific and Gulf of Mexico
moisture. This trough will be negatively tilted as it moves
northeastward in the Mississippi Valley Region. It will bring
soaking rainfall to the area with 1 to 2 inches likely. There will
just enough elevated instability for some thunder but no strong
convection expected. The highest and more widespread rain chances
will be Saturday night into early on Sunday.

This system begins to wrap up and surface low pressure deepen as
it moves across the Midwest. It will turn breezy late on Sunday.
After a relatively mild weekend...temperatures will begin to drop
Sunday night on the back side of the exiting low pressure. Showers
will slowly end from southwest to northeast Sunday night as the
low pressure center moves away. There is a small potential for a
few wet snow flakes to mix in late Sunday night into very early
Monday morning...indicated by the 12z ECMWF. No accumulation is
expected because temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30s.

A deep trough develops on Monday across the central U.S. This
means colder temperatures for early next week with below average
weather with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The forecast
looks dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Thursday
morning along with light and variable winds. Clouds will then
increase later Thursday into Thursday evening as a weak upper
level disturbance approaches from the west. Ceilings will remain
in the low-end VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







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