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000
FXUS63 KSGF 210851
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique along with late evening
temperature and dew point spreads continue to indicate dense fog
potential overnight and early Tuesday morning. IFR and periods of
LIFR are still expected. Fog onset was delayed a bit at
Springfield and Branson...otherwise very little change was made to
this set of TAFs. Fog will burn off by mid morning with VFR then
expected into Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann









000
FXUS63 KSGF 210851
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique along with late evening
temperature and dew point spreads continue to indicate dense fog
potential overnight and early Tuesday morning. IFR and periods of
LIFR are still expected. Fog onset was delayed a bit at
Springfield and Branson...otherwise very little change was made to
this set of TAFs. Fog will burn off by mid morning with VFR then
expected into Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 210447
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique indicates an increasing
potential for dense fog later tonight. Forecast lows are a solid
6-8 degrees below cross-over temperatures from late this
afternoon...generally south of the Highway 54 corridor. Even
knocking off a degree or two for another few hours of weak dry air
advection, dense fog still appears increasingly likely. We have
updated the forecast and Hazardous Weather Outlook products to
lower expected visibilities to less than a half mile. If current
trends hold, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required late tonight and
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique along with late evening
temperature and dew point spreads continue to indicate dense fog
potential overnight and early Tuesday morning. IFR and periods of
LIFR are still expected. Fog onset was delayed a bit at
Springfield and Branson...otherwise very little change was made to
this set of TAFs. Fog will burn off by mid morning with VFR then
expected into Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 210447
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique indicates an increasing
potential for dense fog later tonight. Forecast lows are a solid
6-8 degrees below cross-over temperatures from late this
afternoon...generally south of the Highway 54 corridor. Even
knocking off a degree or two for another few hours of weak dry air
advection, dense fog still appears increasingly likely. We have
updated the forecast and Hazardous Weather Outlook products to
lower expected visibilities to less than a half mile. If current
trends hold, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required late tonight and
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique along with late evening
temperature and dew point spreads continue to indicate dense fog
potential overnight and early Tuesday morning. IFR and periods of
LIFR are still expected. Fog onset was delayed a bit at
Springfield and Branson...otherwise very little change was made to
this set of TAFs. Fog will burn off by mid morning with VFR then
expected into Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210447
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique indicates an increasing
potential for dense fog later tonight. Forecast lows are a solid
6-8 degrees below cross-over temperatures from late this
afternoon...generally south of the Highway 54 corridor. Even
knocking off a degree or two for another few hours of weak dry air
advection, dense fog still appears increasingly likely. We have
updated the forecast and Hazardous Weather Outlook products to
lower expected visibilities to less than a half mile. If current
trends hold, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required late tonight and
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique along with late evening
temperature and dew point spreads continue to indicate dense fog
potential overnight and early Tuesday morning. IFR and periods of
LIFR are still expected. Fog onset was delayed a bit at
Springfield and Branson...otherwise very little change was made to
this set of TAFs. Fog will burn off by mid morning with VFR then
expected into Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 202338
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique indicates an increasing
potential for dense fog later tonight. Forecast lows are a solid
6-8 degrees below cross-over temperatures from late this
afternoon...generally south of the Highway 54 corridor. Even
knocking off a degree or two for another few hours of weak dry air
advection, dense fog still appears increasingly likely. We have
updated the forecast and Hazardous Weather Outlook products to
lower expected visibilities to less than a half mile. If current
trends hold, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required late tonight and
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Confidence is increasing in dense fog and LIFR potential late
tonight and early Tuesday morning. The UPS fog forecasting
technique indicates that dense fog is likely at all three southern
MO TAF sites. We have therefore continued the downward trend in
flight categories including a TEMPO group to LIFR. Fog will then
burn off during the mid-morning hours on Tuesday with VFR then
expected for the remainder of the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202338
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique indicates an increasing
potential for dense fog later tonight. Forecast lows are a solid
6-8 degrees below cross-over temperatures from late this
afternoon...generally south of the Highway 54 corridor. Even
knocking off a degree or two for another few hours of weak dry air
advection, dense fog still appears increasingly likely. We have
updated the forecast and Hazardous Weather Outlook products to
lower expected visibilities to less than a half mile. If current
trends hold, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required late tonight and
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Confidence is increasing in dense fog and LIFR potential late
tonight and early Tuesday morning. The UPS fog forecasting
technique indicates that dense fog is likely at all three southern
MO TAF sites. We have therefore continued the downward trend in
flight categories including a TEMPO group to LIFR. Fog will then
burn off during the mid-morning hours on Tuesday with VFR then
expected for the remainder of the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201857
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 201857
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201650
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Showers had ended across far southwest Missouri by mid morning as
they pushed south into Oklahoma and Arkansas, in association with
a frontal boundary and upper level shortwave. Have removed any
mention of precipitation for the remainder of the day in the
forecast products. High pressure will begin to build into the area
with a clearing sky during the afternoon from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201650
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Showers had ended across far southwest Missouri by mid morning as
they pushed south into Oklahoma and Arkansas, in association with
a frontal boundary and upper level shortwave. Have removed any
mention of precipitation for the remainder of the day in the
forecast products. High pressure will begin to build into the area
with a clearing sky during the afternoon from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 201150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance and
approaching sfc trough have kicked off a few light showers along
with vfr or high end mvfr ceilings. This will continue over the
next few hours with the better chances for -shra at KJLN and KBBG.
Not expected much, if any, impact on visibility with rain. Conditions
will clear north to south 15z-21z. Light winds with a sfc ridge
of high pressure will occur tonight. Some guidance (GFS MOS) is
showing some chances for shallow dense fog toward the end of the
taf period. SREF and NAM showing chances slim at best. With drier
air working it`s way in, believe any fog will patchy and may favor
low terrain and lakes. Will watch fcst trends, particularly at KBBG,
but will not include fog in the tafs for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 201150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance and
approaching sfc trough have kicked off a few light showers along
with vfr or high end mvfr ceilings. This will continue over the
next few hours with the better chances for -shra at KJLN and KBBG.
Not expected much, if any, impact on visibility with rain. Conditions
will clear north to south 15z-21z. Light winds with a sfc ridge
of high pressure will occur tonight. Some guidance (GFS MOS) is
showing some chances for shallow dense fog toward the end of the
taf period. SREF and NAM showing chances slim at best. With drier
air working it`s way in, believe any fog will patchy and may favor
low terrain and lakes. Will watch fcst trends, particularly at KBBG,
but will not include fog in the tafs for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 200824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks airmass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 200824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks airmass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 200530
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 200530
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 192309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 192309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 191947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 191722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks air mass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry air mass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 191722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks air mass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry air mass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 191101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks air mass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry air mass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. An upper
level disturbance will move into the region late in the taf period
with an increase in clouds with vfr ceilings. Some spotty light
rain may also occur, but chances are not high enough to include in
the tafs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks airmass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry airmass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Patchy light fog will be possible late tonight, but coverage is
expected to be too limited for inclusion in the TAFS. High clouds
will increase Sunday as an upper level disturbance pushes through
the region. Winds will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 190736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks airmass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry airmass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Patchy light fog will be possible late tonight, but coverage is
expected to be too limited for inclusion in the TAFS. High clouds
will increase Sunday as an upper level disturbance pushes through
the region. Winds will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190512
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Patchy light fog will be possible late tonight, but coverage is
expected to be too limited for inclusion in the TAFS. High clouds
will increase Sunday as an upper level disturbance pushes through
the region. Winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 190512
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Patchy light fog will be possible late tonight, but coverage is
expected to be too limited for inclusion in the TAFS. High clouds
will increase Sunday as an upper level disturbance pushes through
the region. Winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 182246
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday with scattered high
clouds. Light and variable winds will become southerly as high
pressure slides east of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 182246
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday with scattered high
clouds. Light and variable winds will become southerly as high
pressure slides east of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181930
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Sunday as surface high pressure is over the
region. Winds will be out of the north this afternoon and will
become light and variable tonight before becoming southeasterly
Sunday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181716
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Calm and quiet weather was observed over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks early this morning. Temperatures were in
the 40s, under mostly clear skies and light winds.

For today, readings will warm into the 60s as northwest breezes
bring in a slightly cooler air mass. No rainfall is expected today or
anytime this weekend. Height rises will suppress our air mass, as
an upper ridge translates into the nations mid section.

Sunday`s temperatures will be slightly warmer, and quite ideal for
outdoor activities.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Our next frontal passage will occur early Monday morning. There
have been some signals for isolated showers to develop during the
day Monday. Some instability will be present in advance of the
frontal passage. Therefore we have continued the slight chances
for showers in the forecast, however, we think most locations will
remain dry.

Conditions will become fantastic through the rest of the
work week as strong ridging aloft brings warm and dry weather
for several days.

The GFS now suggests an anomalous high to become centered across
west Texas toward the end of next week. This could offer an
unusual warming trend for the Ozarks, with temperatures
potentially warming well into the 70s on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Sunday as surface high pressure is over the
region. Winds will be out of the north this afternoon and will
become light and variable tonight before becoming southeasterly
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181716
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Calm and quiet weather was observed over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks early this morning. Temperatures were in
the 40s, under mostly clear skies and light winds.

For today, readings will warm into the 60s as northwest breezes
bring in a slightly cooler air mass. No rainfall is expected today or
anytime this weekend. Height rises will suppress our air mass, as
an upper ridge translates into the nations mid section.

Sunday`s temperatures will be slightly warmer, and quite ideal for
outdoor activities.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Our next frontal passage will occur early Monday morning. There
have been some signals for isolated showers to develop during the
day Monday. Some instability will be present in advance of the
frontal passage. Therefore we have continued the slight chances
for showers in the forecast, however, we think most locations will
remain dry.

Conditions will become fantastic through the rest of the
work week as strong ridging aloft brings warm and dry weather
for several days.

The GFS now suggests an anomalous high to become centered across
west Texas toward the end of next week. This could offer an
unusual warming trend for the Ozarks, with temperatures
potentially warming well into the 70s on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Sunday as surface high pressure is over the
region. Winds will be out of the north this afternoon and will
become light and variable tonight before becoming southeasterly
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181124
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Calm and quiet weather was observed over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks early this morning. Temperatures were in
the 40s, under mostly clear skies and light winds.

For today, readings will warm into the 60s as northwest breezes
bring in a slightly cooler air mass. No rainfall is expected today or
anytime this weekend. Height rises will suppress our air mass, as
an upper ridge translates into the nations mid section.

Sunday`s temperatures will be slightly warmer, and quite ideal for
outdoor activities.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Our next frontal passage will occur early Monday morning. There
have been some signals for isolated showers to develop during the
day Monday. Some instability will be present in advance of the
frontal passage. Therefore we have continued the slight chances
for showers in the forecast, however, we think most locations will
remain dry.

Conditions will become fantastic through the rest of the
work week as strong ridging aloft brings warm and dry weather
for several days.

The GFS now suggests an anomalous high to become centered across
west Texas toward the end of next week. This could offer an
unusual warming trend for the Ozarks, with temperatures
potentially warming well into the 70s on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: High pressure over Neb will move east
to the mid MS River Valley/western OH River Valley regions by 12z
Sunday. VFR conditions are expected at taf sites. Some very shallow
fog may develop in low lying terrain and near lakes at night, but
chances are too low at taf sites to mention for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181124
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Calm and quiet weather was observed over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks early this morning. Temperatures were in
the 40s, under mostly clear skies and light winds.

For today, readings will warm into the 60s as northwest breezes
bring in a slightly cooler air mass. No rainfall is expected today or
anytime this weekend. Height rises will suppress our air mass, as
an upper ridge translates into the nations mid section.

Sunday`s temperatures will be slightly warmer, and quite ideal for
outdoor activities.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Our next frontal passage will occur early Monday morning. There
have been some signals for isolated showers to develop during the
day Monday. Some instability will be present in advance of the
frontal passage. Therefore we have continued the slight chances
for showers in the forecast, however, we think most locations will
remain dry.

Conditions will become fantastic through the rest of the
work week as strong ridging aloft brings warm and dry weather
for several days.

The GFS now suggests an anomalous high to become centered across
west Texas toward the end of next week. This could offer an
unusual warming trend for the Ozarks, with temperatures
potentially warming well into the 70s on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: High pressure over Neb will move east
to the mid MS River Valley/western OH River Valley regions by 12z
Sunday. VFR conditions are expected at taf sites. Some very shallow
fog may develop in low lying terrain and near lakes at night, but
chances are too low at taf sites to mention for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181124
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Calm and quiet weather was observed over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks early this morning. Temperatures were in
the 40s, under mostly clear skies and light winds.

For today, readings will warm into the 60s as northwest breezes
bring in a slightly cooler air mass. No rainfall is expected today or
anytime this weekend. Height rises will suppress our air mass, as
an upper ridge translates into the nations mid section.

Sunday`s temperatures will be slightly warmer, and quite ideal for
outdoor activities.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Our next frontal passage will occur early Monday morning. There
have been some signals for isolated showers to develop during the
day Monday. Some instability will be present in advance of the
frontal passage. Therefore we have continued the slight chances
for showers in the forecast, however, we think most locations will
remain dry.

Conditions will become fantastic through the rest of the
work week as strong ridging aloft brings warm and dry weather
for several days.

The GFS now suggests an anomalous high to become centered across
west Texas toward the end of next week. This could offer an
unusual warming trend for the Ozarks, with temperatures
potentially warming well into the 70s on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: High pressure over Neb will move east
to the mid MS River Valley/western OH River Valley regions by 12z
Sunday. VFR conditions are expected at taf sites. Some very shallow
fog may develop in low lying terrain and near lakes at night, but
chances are too low at taf sites to mention for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181124
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Calm and quiet weather was observed over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks early this morning. Temperatures were in
the 40s, under mostly clear skies and light winds.

For today, readings will warm into the 60s as northwest breezes
bring in a slightly cooler air mass. No rainfall is expected today or
anytime this weekend. Height rises will suppress our air mass, as
an upper ridge translates into the nations mid section.

Sunday`s temperatures will be slightly warmer, and quite ideal for
outdoor activities.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Our next frontal passage will occur early Monday morning. There
have been some signals for isolated showers to develop during the
day Monday. Some instability will be present in advance of the
frontal passage. Therefore we have continued the slight chances
for showers in the forecast, however, we think most locations will
remain dry.

Conditions will become fantastic through the rest of the
work week as strong ridging aloft brings warm and dry weather
for several days.

The GFS now suggests an anomalous high to become centered across
west Texas toward the end of next week. This could offer an
unusual warming trend for the Ozarks, with temperatures
potentially warming well into the 70s on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: High pressure over Neb will move east
to the mid MS River Valley/western OH River Valley regions by 12z
Sunday. VFR conditions are expected at taf sites. Some very shallow
fog may develop in low lying terrain and near lakes at night, but
chances are too low at taf sites to mention for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








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