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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at JLN this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. A cold front will approach
late tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the west northwest.
Precip chances look too low to include at this point.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at JLN this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. A cold front will approach
late tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the west northwest.
Precip chances look too low to include at this point.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at JLN this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. A cold front will approach
late tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the west northwest.
Precip chances look too low to include at this point.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at JLN this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. A cold front will approach
late tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the west northwest.
Precip chances look too low to include at this point.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281713 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at JLN this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. A cold front will approach
late tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the west northwest.
Precip chances look too low to include at this point.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281713 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at JLN this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. A cold front will approach
late tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the west northwest.
Precip chances look too low to include at this point.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281713 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at JLN this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. A cold front will approach
late tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the west northwest.
Precip chances look too low to include at this point.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks can expected VFR
conditions to prevail through the next 24 hours. Light southerly
winds will continue. JLN may see a few gusts up to 20 knots
possible. Skies will be generally mostly clear with a few passing
clouds around 5k feet.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 280820
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 280820
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...Updated to Insert Isolated Thunderstorms Overnight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...Updated to Insert Isolated Thunderstorms Overnight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 272348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 272348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 271955
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271955
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271726 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271726 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271726 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271726 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. While
isolated thunderstorms are possible, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will greatly limit chances and areal extent.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. While
isolated thunderstorms are possible, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will greatly limit chances and areal extent.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. While
isolated thunderstorms are possible, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will greatly limit chances and areal extent.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. While
isolated thunderstorms are possible, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will greatly limit chances and areal extent.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 270533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262344
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through much of Monday with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. There is a chance for some
widely scattered thunderstorms late Monday afternoon across
portions of southern Missouri. We have included a PROB30 group to
cover this threat at Branson and Springfield. Surface winds will
remain light through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 262344
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through much of Monday with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. There is a chance for some
widely scattered thunderstorms late Monday afternoon across
portions of southern Missouri. We have included a PROB30 group to
cover this threat at Branson and Springfield. Surface winds will
remain light through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell









000
FXUS63 KSGF 261756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260804
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Sunday evening with
partly cloudy skies. There will be a low chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm late tonight around Joplin and
Springfield, but chances look too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Surface winds will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260804
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Sunday evening with
partly cloudy skies. There will be a low chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm late tonight around Joplin and
Springfield, but chances look too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Surface winds will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 260511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Upper level ridge over the Southern Plains is the dominant weather
maker during this forecast period.  This ridge is keeping a very
warm and humid air mass over the region.  In addition...short waves
transiting the northern periphery of this ridge are setting off
convection...primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the
weekend...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from the low
to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 107 degrees.  Will
thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat warnings for
Sunday.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.  Believe
convection will once again fire late this afternoon and last into
the evening hours.  Like yesterday...any convection that does fire
has the potential to become severe with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly ensconced over the
Southern Plains.  As the ridge amplifies...the convective chances
will decrease as the storm track is pushed northward.

By Wednesday...an upper level wave moving across the Northern Plains
will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold front
southward toward the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Friday...it will
cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west taking
up a position over the Great Basin by the end of the forecast
period. As this happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which
will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Highs on Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be
in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Sunday evening with
partly cloudy skies. There will be a low chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm late tonight around Joplin and
Springfield, but chances look too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Surface winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Upper level ridge over the Southern Plains is the dominant weather
maker during this forecast period.  This ridge is keeping a very
warm and humid air mass over the region.  In addition...short waves
transiting the northern periphery of this ridge are setting off
convection...primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the
weekend...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from the low
to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 107 degrees.  Will
thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat warnings for
Sunday.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.  Believe
convection will once again fire late this afternoon and last into
the evening hours.  Like yesterday...any convection that does fire
has the potential to become severe with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly ensconced over the
Southern Plains.  As the ridge amplifies...the convective chances
will decrease as the storm track is pushed northward.

By Wednesday...an upper level wave moving across the Northern Plains
will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold front
southward toward the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Friday...it will
cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west taking
up a position over the Great Basin by the end of the forecast
period. As this happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which
will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Highs on Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be
in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Sunday evening with
partly cloudy skies. There will be a low chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm late tonight around Joplin and
Springfield, but chances look too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Surface winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Upper level ridge over the Southern Plains is the dominant weather
maker during this forecast period.  This ridge is keeping a very
warm and humid air mass over the region.  In addition...short waves
transiting the northern periphery of this ridge are setting off
convection...primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the
weekend...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from the low
to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 107 degrees.  Will
thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat warnings for
Sunday.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.  Believe
convection will once again fire late this afternoon and last into
the evening hours.  Like yesterday...any convection that does fire
has the potential to become severe with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly ensconced over the
Southern Plains.  As the ridge amplifies...the convective chances
will decrease as the storm track is pushed northward.

By Wednesday...an upper level wave moving across the Northern Plains
will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold front
southward toward the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Friday...it will
cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west taking
up a position over the Great Basin by the end of the forecast
period. As this happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which
will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Highs on Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be
in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Sunday. There is a low risk for light fog late tonight,
but the risk appears too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Upper level ridge over the Southern Plains is the dominant weather
maker during this forecast period.  This ridge is keeping a very
warm and humid air mass over the region.  In addition...short waves
transiting the northern periphery of this ridge are setting off
convection...primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the
weekend...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from the low
to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 107 degrees.  Will
thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat warnings for
Sunday.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.  Believe
convection will once again fire late this afternoon and last into
the evening hours.  Like yesterday...any convection that does fire
has the potential to become severe with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly ensconced over the
Southern Plains.  As the ridge amplifies...the convective chances
will decrease as the storm track is pushed northward.

By Wednesday...an upper level wave moving across the Northern Plains
will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold front
southward toward the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Friday...it will
cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west taking
up a position over the Great Basin by the end of the forecast
period. As this happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which
will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Highs on Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be
in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Sunday. There is a low risk for light fog late tonight,
but the risk appears too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Upper level ridge over the Southern Plains is the dominant weather
maker during this forecast period.  This ridge is keeping a very
warm and humid air mass over the region.  In addition...short waves
transiting the northern periphery of this ridge are setting off
convection...primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the
weekend...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from the low
to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 107 degrees.  Will
thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat warnings for
Sunday.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.  Believe
convection will once again fire late this afternoon and last into
the evening hours.  Like yesterday...any convection that does fire
has the potential to become severe with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly ensconced over the
Southern Plains.  As the ridge amplifies...the convective chances
will decrease as the storm track is pushed northward.

By Wednesday...an upper level wave moving across the Northern Plains
will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold front
southward toward the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Friday...it will
cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west taking
up a position over the Great Basin by the end of the forecast
period. As this happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which
will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Highs on Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be
in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Sunday. There is a low risk for light fog late tonight,
but the risk appears too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann






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