Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KSGF 250505
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday Evening)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A few showers have developed beneath the cold core of a digging
short wave trough across the eastern Ozarks late this evening. PoP
and weather grids have been updated to account for this.
Otherwise, decreasing clouds and dry conditions will overspread
the region from west to east overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday may end up being the lone quiet day of the remainder of
the forecast. A shortwave ridge will build into the region and
allow for sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s.

The first in what will likely be several chances for rainfall will
affect western and northern portions of the outlook area
(generally I-49 west and north of highway 60) late Friday night
and Saturday morning. A strong low level jet will develop over the
Plains and as it veers, thunderstorms will develop on the edge of
an incoming elevated mixed layer. Enough instability will be
present to support a marginal hail risk, generally along and
northwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks
region. This activity should shift north of the area Saturday
afternoon as the elevated mixed layer spreads over the area and
caps us off. This should allow us to warm up nicely with highs in
the 80s in most locations.

The most interesting portion of the forecast remains the Sunday
into Monday time frame. The 12z suite of model output continues to
indicate a strong mid level wave becoming negatively tilted as it
moves out of the central/southern Rockies Saturday, then quickly
transitioning into a closed low over the high Plains on Sunday.
There remains some minor placement differences between models, but
the overall pattern is well agreed upon.

On Sunday, the big question for our neck of the woods is whether
or not the dry line will shift this far to the east. A consensus
of the models would suggest the dry line should end up closer to
the I-35 corridor to our west. With increasingly unidirectional
shear (due the quick transition to a strong, closed low), we will
likely have to wait to inherit a convective complex that evolves
from whatever develops/congeals to our west Sunday afternoon and
evening. All modes of severe weather are still supported, but
with more emphasis on wind/hail at this time. Again, this will be
something to watch with subsequent forecasts.

Heading into Monday, the questions become more complex. How
quickly does the upper low shift to the east? What is the exact
location of the upper low? At this point there are two plausible
solutions. The first, supported by the ECMWF is to have a second
window of opportunity for strong/severe storms Monday as another
speed max rounds the base of the upper low and spreads into the
warm sector. Our area would be on the northern fringe of the
severe risk, with the better potential to our south. Another
equally plausible solution, supported by the GEFS/GEM, is for the
upper low to expand east and our area get dry slotted. Something
to watch, but certainly a low confidence forecast at this
juncture.

The remainder of the week will see the risk for severe exit but an
abnormally cool and unsettled stretch of weather spread over the
Midwest. Highs some 10-20 degrees below average and lows around 10
degrees below average are expected. Periodic chances for showers
are possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Again,
much depends on how this upper low behaves. So far, model
consensus agrees on a very slow movement of this low, but trust in
a precise location of this low on any given day is on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through Friday
evening. Winds will decrease out of the northwest overnight and
become southerly on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250505
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday Evening)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A few showers have developed beneath the cold core of a digging
short wave trough across the eastern Ozarks late this evening. PoP
and weather grids have been updated to account for this.
Otherwise, decreasing clouds and dry conditions will overspread
the region from west to east overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday may end up being the lone quiet day of the remainder of
the forecast. A shortwave ridge will build into the region and
allow for sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s.

The first in what will likely be several chances for rainfall will
affect western and northern portions of the outlook area
(generally I-49 west and north of highway 60) late Friday night
and Saturday morning. A strong low level jet will develop over the
Plains and as it veers, thunderstorms will develop on the edge of
an incoming elevated mixed layer. Enough instability will be
present to support a marginal hail risk, generally along and
northwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks
region. This activity should shift north of the area Saturday
afternoon as the elevated mixed layer spreads over the area and
caps us off. This should allow us to warm up nicely with highs in
the 80s in most locations.

The most interesting portion of the forecast remains the Sunday
into Monday time frame. The 12z suite of model output continues to
indicate a strong mid level wave becoming negatively tilted as it
moves out of the central/southern Rockies Saturday, then quickly
transitioning into a closed low over the high Plains on Sunday.
There remains some minor placement differences between models, but
the overall pattern is well agreed upon.

On Sunday, the big question for our neck of the woods is whether
or not the dry line will shift this far to the east. A consensus
of the models would suggest the dry line should end up closer to
the I-35 corridor to our west. With increasingly unidirectional
shear (due the quick transition to a strong, closed low), we will
likely have to wait to inherit a convective complex that evolves
from whatever develops/congeals to our west Sunday afternoon and
evening. All modes of severe weather are still supported, but
with more emphasis on wind/hail at this time. Again, this will be
something to watch with subsequent forecasts.

Heading into Monday, the questions become more complex. How
quickly does the upper low shift to the east? What is the exact
location of the upper low? At this point there are two plausible
solutions. The first, supported by the ECMWF is to have a second
window of opportunity for strong/severe storms Monday as another
speed max rounds the base of the upper low and spreads into the
warm sector. Our area would be on the northern fringe of the
severe risk, with the better potential to our south. Another
equally plausible solution, supported by the GEFS/GEM, is for the
upper low to expand east and our area get dry slotted. Something
to watch, but certainly a low confidence forecast at this
juncture.

The remainder of the week will see the risk for severe exit but an
abnormally cool and unsettled stretch of weather spread over the
Midwest. Highs some 10-20 degrees below average and lows around 10
degrees below average are expected. Periodic chances for showers
are possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Again,
much depends on how this upper low behaves. So far, model
consensus agrees on a very slow movement of this low, but trust in
a precise location of this low on any given day is on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through Friday
evening. Winds will decrease out of the northwest overnight and
become southerly on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242330
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Through early This Evening)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Previous mesoscale discussion...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the region this afternoon, in
effect through 10 PM tonight.  Quick moving broken lines of
thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through early
evening, as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave traverse
the region.  18Z special RAOB was somewhat lackluster with mid level
lapse rates, which likely explains why convection has struggled a
bit to really organize.  Nonetheless, given modest instability and
good deep level shear, do think that there is a reasonable potential
for a few marginally severe storms this afternoon across the Watch
area, with large hail to the size of quarters to perhaps half
dollars the primary threat.  The 18Z sounding did show a fair amount
of dry air in the low levels (albeit less than at 12Z), suggesting
at least some potential for strong wind gusts.  Weak low level shear
is resulting in an extremely low tornado threat.

Current indications are that these lines of storms should clear the
region from west to east from late afternoon through early evening,
and will likely be able to end the Watch early from the west a few
counties at a time once this takes place.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday may end up being the lone quiet day of the remainder of
the forecast. A shortwave ridge will build into the region and
allow for sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s.

The first in what will likely be several chances for rainfall will
affect western and northern portions of the outlook area
(generally I-49 west and north of highway 60) late Friday night
and Saturday morning. A strong low level jet will develop over the
Plains and as it veers, thunderstorms will develop on the edge of
an incoming elevated mixed layer. Enough instability will be
present to support a marginal hail risk, generally along and
northwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks
region. This activity should shift north of the area Saturday
afternoon as the elevated mixed layer spreads over the area and
caps us off. This should allow us to warm up nicely with highs in
the 80s in most locations.

The most interesting portion of the forecast remains the Sunday
into Monday time frame. The 12z suite of model output continues to
indicate a strong mid level wave becoming negatively tilted as it
moves out of the central/southern Rockies Saturday, then quickly
transitioning into a closed low over the high Plains on Sunday.
There remains some minor placement differences between models, but
the overall pattern is well agreed upon.

On Sunday, the big question for our neck of the woods is whether
or not the dry line will shift this far to the east. A consensus
of the models would suggest the dry line should end up closer to
the I-35 corridor to our west. With increasingly unidirectional
shear (due the quick transition to a strong, closed low), we will
likely have to wait to inherit a convective complex that evolves
from whatever develops/congeals to our west Sunday afternoon and
evening. All modes of severe weather are still supported, but
with more emphasis on wind/hail at this time. Again, this will be
something to watch with subsequent forecasts.

Heading into Monday, the questions become more complex. How
quickly does the upper low shift to the east? What is the exact
location of the upper low? At this point there are two plausible
solutions. The first, supported by the ECMWF is to have a second
window of opportunity for strong/severe storms Monday as another
speed max rounds the base of the upper low and spreads into the
warm sector. Our area would be on the northern fringe of the
severe risk, with the better potential to our south. Another
equally plausible solution, supported by the GEFS/GEM, is for the
upper low to expand east and our area get dry slotted. Something
to watch, but certainly a low confidence forecast at this
juncture.

The remainder of the week will see the risk for severe exit but an
abnormally cool and unsettled stretch of weather spread over the
Midwest. Highs some 10-20 degrees below average and lows around 10
degrees below average are expected. Periodic chances for showers
are possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Again,
much depends on how this upper low behaves. So far, model
consensus agrees on a very slow movement of this low, but trust in
a precise location of this low on any given day is on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MVFR ceilings and scattered rain showers will persist early this
evening as a cold front moves through the region. Skies will then
quickly clear from mid to late evening with VFR then prevailing
through Friday. Brisk and gusty west to northwest winds early this
evening will also diminish and become southwesterly on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242330
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Through early This Evening)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Previous mesoscale discussion...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the region this afternoon, in
effect through 10 PM tonight.  Quick moving broken lines of
thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through early
evening, as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave traverse
the region.  18Z special RAOB was somewhat lackluster with mid level
lapse rates, which likely explains why convection has struggled a
bit to really organize.  Nonetheless, given modest instability and
good deep level shear, do think that there is a reasonable potential
for a few marginally severe storms this afternoon across the Watch
area, with large hail to the size of quarters to perhaps half
dollars the primary threat.  The 18Z sounding did show a fair amount
of dry air in the low levels (albeit less than at 12Z), suggesting
at least some potential for strong wind gusts.  Weak low level shear
is resulting in an extremely low tornado threat.

Current indications are that these lines of storms should clear the
region from west to east from late afternoon through early evening,
and will likely be able to end the Watch early from the west a few
counties at a time once this takes place.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday may end up being the lone quiet day of the remainder of
the forecast. A shortwave ridge will build into the region and
allow for sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s.

The first in what will likely be several chances for rainfall will
affect western and northern portions of the outlook area
(generally I-49 west and north of highway 60) late Friday night
and Saturday morning. A strong low level jet will develop over the
Plains and as it veers, thunderstorms will develop on the edge of
an incoming elevated mixed layer. Enough instability will be
present to support a marginal hail risk, generally along and
northwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks
region. This activity should shift north of the area Saturday
afternoon as the elevated mixed layer spreads over the area and
caps us off. This should allow us to warm up nicely with highs in
the 80s in most locations.

The most interesting portion of the forecast remains the Sunday
into Monday time frame. The 12z suite of model output continues to
indicate a strong mid level wave becoming negatively tilted as it
moves out of the central/southern Rockies Saturday, then quickly
transitioning into a closed low over the high Plains on Sunday.
There remains some minor placement differences between models, but
the overall pattern is well agreed upon.

On Sunday, the big question for our neck of the woods is whether
or not the dry line will shift this far to the east. A consensus
of the models would suggest the dry line should end up closer to
the I-35 corridor to our west. With increasingly unidirectional
shear (due the quick transition to a strong, closed low), we will
likely have to wait to inherit a convective complex that evolves
from whatever develops/congeals to our west Sunday afternoon and
evening. All modes of severe weather are still supported, but
with more emphasis on wind/hail at this time. Again, this will be
something to watch with subsequent forecasts.

Heading into Monday, the questions become more complex. How
quickly does the upper low shift to the east? What is the exact
location of the upper low? At this point there are two plausible
solutions. The first, supported by the ECMWF is to have a second
window of opportunity for strong/severe storms Monday as another
speed max rounds the base of the upper low and spreads into the
warm sector. Our area would be on the northern fringe of the
severe risk, with the better potential to our south. Another
equally plausible solution, supported by the GEFS/GEM, is for the
upper low to expand east and our area get dry slotted. Something
to watch, but certainly a low confidence forecast at this
juncture.

The remainder of the week will see the risk for severe exit but an
abnormally cool and unsettled stretch of weather spread over the
Midwest. Highs some 10-20 degrees below average and lows around 10
degrees below average are expected. Periodic chances for showers
are possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Again,
much depends on how this upper low behaves. So far, model
consensus agrees on a very slow movement of this low, but trust in
a precise location of this low on any given day is on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MVFR ceilings and scattered rain showers will persist early this
evening as a cold front moves through the region. Skies will then
quickly clear from mid to late evening with VFR then prevailing
through Friday. Brisk and gusty west to northwest winds early this
evening will also diminish and become southwesterly on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 242033
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Through early This Evening)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Previous mesoscale discussion...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the region this afternoon, in
effect through 10 PM tonight.  Quick moving broken lines of
thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through early
evening, as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave traverse
the region.  18Z special RAOB was somewhat lackluster with mid level
lapse rates, which likely explains why convection has struggled a
bit to really organize.  Nonetheless, given modest instability and
good deep level shear, do think that there is a reasonable potential
for a few marginally severe storms this afternoon across the Watch
area, with large hail to the size of quarters to perhaps half
dollars the primary threat.  The 18Z sounding did show a fair amount
of dry air in the low levels (albeit less than at 12Z), suggesting
at least some potential for strong wind gusts.  Weak low level shear
is resulting in an extremely low tornado threat.

Current indications are that these lines of storms should clear the
region from west to east from late afternoon through early evening,
and will likely be able to end the Watch early from the west a few
counties at a time once this takes place.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday may end up being the lone quiet day of the remainder of
the forecast. A shortwave ridge will build into the region and
allow for sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s.

The first in what will likely be several chances for rainfall will
affect western and northern portions of the outlook area
(generally I-49 west and north of highway 60) late Friday night
and Saturday morning. A strong low level jet will develop over the
Plains and as it veers, thunderstorms will develop on the edge of
an incoming elevated mixed layer. Enough instability will be
present to support a marginal hail risk, generally along and
northwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks
region. This activity should shift north of the area Saturday
afternoon as the elevated mixed layer spreads over the area and
caps us off. This should allow us to warm up nicely with highs in
the 80s in most locations.

The most interesting portion of the forecast remains the Sunday
into Monday time frame. The 12z suite of model output continues to
indicate a strong mid level wave becoming negatively tilted as it
moves out of the central/southern Rockies Saturday, then quickly
transitioning into a closed low over the high Plains on Sunday.
There remains some minor placement differences between models, but
the overall pattern is well agreed upon.

On Sunday, the big question for our neck of the woods is whether
or not the dry line will shift this far to the east. A consensus
of the models would suggest the dry line should end up closer to
the I-35 corridor to our west. With increasingly unidirectional
shear (due the quick transition to a strong, closed low), we will
likely have to wait to inherit a convective complex that evolves
from whatever develops/congeals to our west Sunday afternoon and
evening. All modes of severe weather are still supported, but
with more emphasis on wind/hail at this time. Again, this will be
something to watch with subsequent forecasts.

Heading into Monday, the questions become more complex. How
quickly does the upper low shift to the east? What is the exact
location of the upper low? At this point there are two plausible
solutions. The first, supported by the ECMWF is to have a second
window of opportunity for strong/severe storms Monday as another
speed max rounds the base of the upper low and spreads into the
warm sector. Our area would be on the northern fringe of the
severe risk, with the better potential to our south. Another
equally plausible solution, supported by the GEFS/GEM, is for the
upper low to expand east and our area get dry slotted. Something
to watch, but certainly a low confidence forecast at this
juncture.

The remainder of the week will see the risk for severe exit but an
abnormally cool and unsettled stretch of weather spread over the
Midwest. Highs some 10-20 degrees below average and lows around 10
degrees below average are expected. Periodic chances for showers
are possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Again,
much depends on how this upper low behaves. So far, model
consensus agrees on a very slow movement of this low, but trust in
a precise location of this low on any given day is on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Breezy south winds will continue early this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. That front, and an associated line of thunderstorms,
will sweep across the region this afternoon, likely affecting all
three terminal sites. Clearing skies and west to northwest winds
are expected behind the front tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242033
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Through early This Evening)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Previous mesoscale discussion...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the region this afternoon, in
effect through 10 PM tonight.  Quick moving broken lines of
thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through early
evening, as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave traverse
the region.  18Z special RAOB was somewhat lackluster with mid level
lapse rates, which likely explains why convection has struggled a
bit to really organize.  Nonetheless, given modest instability and
good deep level shear, do think that there is a reasonable potential
for a few marginally severe storms this afternoon across the Watch
area, with large hail to the size of quarters to perhaps half
dollars the primary threat.  The 18Z sounding did show a fair amount
of dry air in the low levels (albeit less than at 12Z), suggesting
at least some potential for strong wind gusts.  Weak low level shear
is resulting in an extremely low tornado threat.

Current indications are that these lines of storms should clear the
region from west to east from late afternoon through early evening,
and will likely be able to end the Watch early from the west a few
counties at a time once this takes place.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday may end up being the lone quiet day of the remainder of
the forecast. A shortwave ridge will build into the region and
allow for sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s.

The first in what will likely be several chances for rainfall will
affect western and northern portions of the outlook area
(generally I-49 west and north of highway 60) late Friday night
and Saturday morning. A strong low level jet will develop over the
Plains and as it veers, thunderstorms will develop on the edge of
an incoming elevated mixed layer. Enough instability will be
present to support a marginal hail risk, generally along and
northwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks
region. This activity should shift north of the area Saturday
afternoon as the elevated mixed layer spreads over the area and
caps us off. This should allow us to warm up nicely with highs in
the 80s in most locations.

The most interesting portion of the forecast remains the Sunday
into Monday time frame. The 12z suite of model output continues to
indicate a strong mid level wave becoming negatively tilted as it
moves out of the central/southern Rockies Saturday, then quickly
transitioning into a closed low over the high Plains on Sunday.
There remains some minor placement differences between models, but
the overall pattern is well agreed upon.

On Sunday, the big question for our neck of the woods is whether
or not the dry line will shift this far to the east. A consensus
of the models would suggest the dry line should end up closer to
the I-35 corridor to our west. With increasingly unidirectional
shear (due the quick transition to a strong, closed low), we will
likely have to wait to inherit a convective complex that evolves
from whatever develops/congeals to our west Sunday afternoon and
evening. All modes of severe weather are still supported, but
with more emphasis on wind/hail at this time. Again, this will be
something to watch with subsequent forecasts.

Heading into Monday, the questions become more complex. How
quickly does the upper low shift to the east? What is the exact
location of the upper low? At this point there are two plausible
solutions. The first, supported by the ECMWF is to have a second
window of opportunity for strong/severe storms Monday as another
speed max rounds the base of the upper low and spreads into the
warm sector. Our area would be on the northern fringe of the
severe risk, with the better potential to our south. Another
equally plausible solution, supported by the GEFS/GEM, is for the
upper low to expand east and our area get dry slotted. Something
to watch, but certainly a low confidence forecast at this
juncture.

The remainder of the week will see the risk for severe exit but an
abnormally cool and unsettled stretch of weather spread over the
Midwest. Highs some 10-20 degrees below average and lows around 10
degrees below average are expected. Periodic chances for showers
are possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Again,
much depends on how this upper low behaves. So far, model
consensus agrees on a very slow movement of this low, but trust in
a precise location of this low on any given day is on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Breezy south winds will continue early this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. That front, and an associated line of thunderstorms,
will sweep across the region this afternoon, likely affecting all
three terminal sites. Clearing skies and west to northwest winds
are expected behind the front tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241951
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the region this afternoon, in
effect through 10 PM tonight.  Quick moving broken lines of
thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through early
evening, as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave traverse
the region.  18Z special RAOB was somewhat lackluster with mid level
lapse rates, which likely explains why convection has struggled a
bit to really organize.  Nonetheless, given modest instability and
good deep level shear, do think that there is a reasonable potential
for a few marginally severe storms this afternoon across the Watch
area, with large hail to the size of quarters to perhaps half
dollars the primary threat.  The 18Z sounding did show a fair amount
of dry air in the low levels (albeit less than at 12Z), suggesting
at least some potential for strong wind gusts.  Weak low level shear
is resulting in an extremely low tornado threat.

Current indications are that these lines of storms should clear the
region from west to east from late afternoon through early evening,
and will likely be able to end the Watch early from the west a few
counties at a time once this takes place.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinity of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an initial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Breezy south winds will continue early this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. That front, and an associated line of thunderstorms,
will sweep across the region this afternoon, likely affecting all
three terminal sites. Clearing skies and west to northwest winds
are expected behind the front tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Boxell
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241700
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Update for Aviation...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Forecast appears to generally be on track this morning, as an initial area
of elevated thunderstorms progresses east across the Ozarks.  While
this activity has shown brief periods of strengthening, it has
struggled to become particularly strong.  Suspect that convection is
fighting some dry air in the mid levels, per the 12Z SGF RAOB, and a
dwindling of forcing as the LLJ weakens/veers is not helping
either.  As such, while a quarter size hail report isn`t entirely
out of the question at some point this morning, the severe weather
threat with this morning convection will probably remain fairly low.

More organized convection is still expected to develop along/just
ahead of the frontal boundary as it begins to move into eastern
Kansas around 18Z or so, with that convection then progressing east
across the entire forecast area this afternoon.  With modest
instability and very steep lapse rates in place aloft, it does
appear that a few severe storms will be possible, with large hail
the primary threat.  Some severe wind gusts will also be possible,
especially with organized line segments, but mediocre low level
theta-e differentials will likely make it difficult to get
widespread damaging winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinity of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an initial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Breezy south winds will continue early this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. That front, and an associated line of thunderstorms,
will sweep across the region this afternoon, likely affecting all
three terminal sites. Clearing skies and west to northwest winds
are expected behind the front tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Boxell
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241700
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Update for Aviation...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Forecast appears to generally be on track this morning, as an initial area
of elevated thunderstorms progresses east across the Ozarks.  While
this activity has shown brief periods of strengthening, it has
struggled to become particularly strong.  Suspect that convection is
fighting some dry air in the mid levels, per the 12Z SGF RAOB, and a
dwindling of forcing as the LLJ weakens/veers is not helping
either.  As such, while a quarter size hail report isn`t entirely
out of the question at some point this morning, the severe weather
threat with this morning convection will probably remain fairly low.

More organized convection is still expected to develop along/just
ahead of the frontal boundary as it begins to move into eastern
Kansas around 18Z or so, with that convection then progressing east
across the entire forecast area this afternoon.  With modest
instability and very steep lapse rates in place aloft, it does
appear that a few severe storms will be possible, with large hail
the primary threat.  Some severe wind gusts will also be possible,
especially with organized line segments, but mediocre low level
theta-e differentials will likely make it difficult to get
widespread damaging winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinity of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an initial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Breezy south winds will continue early this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. That front, and an associated line of thunderstorms,
will sweep across the region this afternoon, likely affecting all
three terminal sites. Clearing skies and west to northwest winds
are expected behind the front tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Boxell
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241502
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1002 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Short Term/Mesoscale Update...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Forecast appears to generally be on track this morning, as an initial area
of elevated thunderstorms progresses east across the Ozarks.  While
this activity has shown brief periods of strengthening, it has
struggled to become particularly strong.  Suspect that convection is
fighting some dry air in the mid levels, per the 12Z SGF RAOB, and a
dwindling of forcing as the LLJ weakens/veers is not helping
either.  As such, while a quarter size hail report isn`t entirely
out of the question at some point this morning, the severe weather
threat with this morning convection will probably remain fairly low.

More organized convection is still expected to develop along/just
ahead of the frontal boundary as it begins to move into eastern
Kansas around 18Z or so, with that convection then progressing east
across the entire forecast area this afternoon.  With modest
instability and very steep lapse rates in place aloft, it does
appear that a few severe storms will be possible, with large hail
the primary threat.  Some severe wind gusts will also be possible,
especially with organized line segments, but mediocre low level
theta-e differentials will likely make it difficult to get
widespread damaging winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinty of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an intial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends today.

A storm system was approaching from the west this morning. This
feature will force showers and thunderstorms, across the majority
of the region.

These storms will lead to reduced flight conditions while directly
impacting an airfield.

South winds will gust up to 30 mph today, eventually shifting to
the northwest late this afternoon and evening. This wind shift
will occur in response to an approaching cold front.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Boxell
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer









000
FXUS63 KSGF 241502
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1002 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Short Term/Mesoscale Update...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Forecast appears to generally be on track this morning, as an initial area
of elevated thunderstorms progresses east across the Ozarks.  While
this activity has shown brief periods of strengthening, it has
struggled to become particularly strong.  Suspect that convection is
fighting some dry air in the mid levels, per the 12Z SGF RAOB, and a
dwindling of forcing as the LLJ weakens/veers is not helping
either.  As such, while a quarter size hail report isn`t entirely
out of the question at some point this morning, the severe weather
threat with this morning convection will probably remain fairly low.

More organized convection is still expected to develop along/just
ahead of the frontal boundary as it begins to move into eastern
Kansas around 18Z or so, with that convection then progressing east
across the entire forecast area this afternoon.  With modest
instability and very steep lapse rates in place aloft, it does
appear that a few severe storms will be possible, with large hail
the primary threat.  Some severe wind gusts will also be possible,
especially with organized line segments, but mediocre low level
theta-e differentials will likely make it difficult to get
widespread damaging winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinty of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an intial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends today.

A storm system was approaching from the west this morning. This
feature will force showers and thunderstorms, across the majority
of the region.

These storms will lead to reduced flight conditions while directly
impacting an airfield.

South winds will gust up to 30 mph today, eventually shifting to
the northwest late this afternoon and evening. This wind shift
will occur in response to an approaching cold front.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Boxell
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinty of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an intial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends today.

A storm system was approaching from the west this morning. This
feature will force showers and thunderstorms, across the majority
of the region.

These storms will lead to reduced flight conditions while directly
impacting an airfield.

South winds will gust up to 30 mph today, eventually shifting to
the northwest late this afternoon and evening. This wind shift
will occur in response to an approaching cold front.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinty of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an intial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends today.

A storm system was approaching from the west this morning. This
feature will force showers and thunderstorms, across the majority
of the region.

These storms will lead to reduced flight conditions while directly
impacting an airfield.

South winds will gust up to 30 mph today, eventually shifting to
the northwest late this afternoon and evening. This wind shift
will occur in response to an approaching cold front.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 240753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinty of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an intial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Low level wind shear will continue overnight as a low level jet
stream strengthens over the region. Brisk and gusty southerly
surface winds will also continue Thursday. Meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms will develop from early Thursday morning and will
continue into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected with
any thunderstorms. A cold front will then pass through the region
late in the afternoon and will sweep the precipitation out of
southern Missouri with winds shifting to the west and northwest.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 240753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

An unsettled pattern will bring several chances of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain to the area
throughout much of the forecast period.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms were occurring along a
frontal boundary from central Kansas into northeast Kansas and in
the vicinty of a low level jet over eastern Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas. The precipitation over eastern Kansas was entering a much
drier air mass and having trouble holding together as much more
than sprinkles. This is expected to change closer to sunrise as an
upper level trough and surface cold front shift east across Kansas
during the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The front should be on the western doorstep of our forecast area
by 12-13z with the shortwave trough pushing into western Kansas.
Precipitation should begin to fall across our western CWA during
the morning hours and into the western half of the CWA by 18z.
With the slower onset of precipitation from previous models runs,
there is more opportunity for some higher instability to creep up
into the southeastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon
ahead of the front. A speed max will be rounding the base of the
mid/upper level trough which will push into the area this
afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30-50kts will be possible over
south central MO this afternoon. So the risk of some organized
severe storms has increased for the afternoon hours over our
southeastern CWA. There will be an intial shot of some
supercellular storms before the activity lines out, most likely
east of our CWA this evening. Therefore, we can`t rule out all
modes of severe weather roughly east of a Branson to Rolla line.
All of the precipitation should exit the CWA during the early
evening, with clearing from west to east. While a "cooler" air
mass will move into the area behind the front, lows should still
be in the mid to upper 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday should remain dry across the area and even with the front
to our south, the drier air in place with upper level ridging
should allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 70s to around
80. The front should start to lift back north Friday night and
into the area on Saturday. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the warm front, but a strong elevated mixed
layer will develop behind the front during the day Saturday which
should limit convective development without any other triggering
mechanisms. Nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop north of
the area, along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a
strong low level jet develops in advance of the next strong low
pressure system developing in the high plains. The severe storms
on Saturday into Saturday night should remain west of the CWA.

Things become more interesting heading into Sunday and Monday as
the upper level low slowly tracks to the east. Strong to severe
storms will likely develop along a dry line with strong jet
interaction and deep shear to our west and then shift east into
the area later in the day/night. Additional strong to severe
storms will be possible on Monday depending on how far east the
moisture axis shifts Sunday night. Models have some differing
solutions here with the ECMWF slower to shift the moisture axis
eastward and thus a better chance of strong to severe storms
redeveloping over the eastern CWA on Monday.

With a blocking pattern in place over north America, the low will
be slow to leave the area and will likely be cycling energy over
the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Colder
air will eventually be drawn south into the area on Tuesday night
with models showing 0 to -2 850 mb air by 12z Wed. Model surface
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s so will keep
precipitation chances as all rain for now. Slightly colder air is
expected on Wednesday night with 850 mb air of -1 to -3.  Will
still keep snow/rain mix out of the forecast for now but this will
need to be monitored. We currently will go with lows in the upper
30s to low 40s both Tuesday night/Wednesday night so probably not
a frost situation, but this will also need to be monitored as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Low level wind shear will continue overnight as a low level jet
stream strengthens over the region. Brisk and gusty southerly
surface winds will also continue Thursday. Meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms will develop from early Thursday morning and will
continue into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected with
any thunderstorms. A cold front will then pass through the region
late in the afternoon and will sweep the precipitation out of
southern Missouri with winds shifting to the west and northwest.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240544
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

We have lower PoPs overnight generally along and east of the
Highway 65 corridor while delaying the onset of higher PoPs for a
few hours out west. The main show when it comes to showers and
thunderstorms may be the eventual evolution of a line of storms
currently across northwestern Kansas. This activity is expected to
reach west-central Missouri around sunrise. We may also see
additional isolated to scattered activity develop out ahead of
this line across the remainder of western Missouri...again closer
to sunrise. We then look on track for some widespread and
beneficial rainfall during the day on Thursday.

Updates have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert
Southwest. A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
as the warm front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind
the warm front, chances will be relatively low during the day
Saturday. MCS development looks possible Saturday night across
northeastern Kansas and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of
that complex possibly affecting the northern portions of the
forecast area early Sunday. This potential will depend heavily on
the eventual position of the warm front, which remains somewhat
problematic amongst the medium range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Low level wind shear will continue overnight as a low level jet
stream strengthens over the region. Brisk and gusty southerly
surface winds will also continue Thursday. Meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms will develop from early Thursday morning and will
continue into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected with
any thunderstorms. A cold front will then pass through the region
late in the afternoon and will sweep the precipitation out of
southern Missouri with winds shifting to the west and northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240544
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

We have lower PoPs overnight generally along and east of the
Highway 65 corridor while delaying the onset of higher PoPs for a
few hours out west. The main show when it comes to showers and
thunderstorms may be the eventual evolution of a line of storms
currently across northwestern Kansas. This activity is expected to
reach west-central Missouri around sunrise. We may also see
additional isolated to scattered activity develop out ahead of
this line across the remainder of western Missouri...again closer
to sunrise. We then look on track for some widespread and
beneficial rainfall during the day on Thursday.

Updates have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert
Southwest. A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
as the warm front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind
the warm front, chances will be relatively low during the day
Saturday. MCS development looks possible Saturday night across
northeastern Kansas and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of
that complex possibly affecting the northern portions of the
forecast area early Sunday. This potential will depend heavily on
the eventual position of the warm front, which remains somewhat
problematic amongst the medium range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Low level wind shear will continue overnight as a low level jet
stream strengthens over the region. Brisk and gusty southerly
surface winds will also continue Thursday. Meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms will develop from early Thursday morning and will
continue into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected with
any thunderstorms. A cold front will then pass through the region
late in the afternoon and will sweep the precipitation out of
southern Missouri with winds shifting to the west and northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240247
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

We have lower PoPs overnight generally along and east of the
Highway 65 corridor while delaying the onset of higher PoPs for a
few hours out west. The main show when it comes to showers and
thunderstorms may be the eventual evolution of a line of storms
currently across northwestern Kansas. This activity is expected to
reach west-central Missouri around sunrise. We may also see
additional isolated to scattered activity develop out ahead of
this line across the remainder of western Missouri...again closer
to sunrise. We then look on track for some widespread and
beneficial rainfall during the day on Thursday.

Updates have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert
Southwest. A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
as the warm front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind
the warm front, chances will be relatively low during the day
Saturday. MCS development looks possible Saturday night across
northeastern Kansas and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of
that complex possibly affecting the northern portions of the
forecast area early Sunday. This potential will depend heavily on
the eventual position of the warm front, which remains somewhat
problematic amongst the medium range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The main concern overnight will be low level wind shear as a
strong low level jet stream shifts over the region. Brisk and
gusty southeast winds are also expected around Springfield due to
local terrain effects. A storm system will then bring numerous
showers to the area on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms also
expected. At this time, it looks like the greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will occur from later in the morning
into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected beneath any
storms. Brisk and gusty south to southwest winds will persist for
most of Thursday before shifting to the west and northwest behind
a passing cold front late in the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240247
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

We have lower PoPs overnight generally along and east of the
Highway 65 corridor while delaying the onset of higher PoPs for a
few hours out west. The main show when it comes to showers and
thunderstorms may be the eventual evolution of a line of storms
currently across northwestern Kansas. This activity is expected to
reach west-central Missouri around sunrise. We may also see
additional isolated to scattered activity develop out ahead of
this line across the remainder of western Missouri...again closer
to sunrise. We then look on track for some widespread and
beneficial rainfall during the day on Thursday.

Updates have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert
Southwest. A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
as the warm front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind
the warm front, chances will be relatively low during the day
Saturday. MCS development looks possible Saturday night across
northeastern Kansas and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of
that complex possibly affecting the northern portions of the
forecast area early Sunday. This potential will depend heavily on
the eventual position of the warm front, which remains somewhat
problematic amongst the medium range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The main concern overnight will be low level wind shear as a
strong low level jet stream shifts over the region. Brisk and
gusty southeast winds are also expected around Springfield due to
local terrain effects. A storm system will then bring numerous
showers to the area on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms also
expected. At this time, it looks like the greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will occur from later in the morning
into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected beneath any
storms. Brisk and gusty south to southwest winds will persist for
most of Thursday before shifting to the west and northwest behind
a passing cold front late in the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 232348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert
Southwest. A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
as the warm front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind
the warm front, chances will be relatively low during the day
Saturday. MCS development looks possible Saturday night across
northeastern Kansas and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of
that complex possibly affecting the northern portions of the
forecast area early Sunday. This potential will depend heavily on
the eventual position of the warm front, which remains somewhat
problematic amongst the medium range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The main concern overnight will be low level wind shear as a
strong low level jet stream shifts over the region. Brisk and
gusty southeast winds are also expected around Springfield due to
local terrain effects. A storm system will then bring numerous
showers to the area on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms also
expected. At this time, it looks like the greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will occur from later in the morning
into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected beneath any
storms. Brisk and gusty south to southwest winds will persist for
most of Thursday before shifting to the west and northwest behind
a passing cold front late in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 232348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert
Southwest. A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
as the warm front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind
the warm front, chances will be relatively low during the day
Saturday. MCS development looks possible Saturday night across
northeastern Kansas and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of
that complex possibly affecting the northern portions of the
forecast area early Sunday. This potential will depend heavily on
the eventual position of the warm front, which remains somewhat
problematic amongst the medium range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The main concern overnight will be low level wind shear as a
strong low level jet stream shifts over the region. Brisk and
gusty southeast winds are also expected around Springfield due to
local terrain effects. A storm system will then bring numerous
showers to the area on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms also
expected. At this time, it looks like the greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will occur from later in the morning
into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected beneath any
storms. Brisk and gusty south to southwest winds will persist for
most of Thursday before shifting to the west and northwest behind
a passing cold front late in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert Southwest.
A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday as the warm
front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind the warm
front, chances will be relatively low during the day Saturday.  MCS
development looks possible Saturday night across northeastern Kansas
and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of that complex possibly
affecting the northern portions of the forecast area early Sunday.
This potential will depend heavily on the eventual position of the
warm front, which remains somewhat problematic amongst the medium
range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast through the rest of the day
and into the overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the south
southeast through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. Cloud cover will increase by tomorrow
morning, with a chance for thunderstorms across the region
generally after sunrise. Ceilings and visibilities near MVFR may
be possible with any thunderstorms that move into the region with
the frontal boundary.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert Southwest.
A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday as the warm
front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind the warm
front, chances will be relatively low during the day Saturday.  MCS
development looks possible Saturday night across northeastern Kansas
and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of that complex possibly
affecting the northern portions of the forecast area early Sunday.
This potential will depend heavily on the eventual position of the
warm front, which remains somewhat problematic amongst the medium
range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast through the rest of the day
and into the overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the south
southeast through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. Cloud cover will increase by tomorrow
morning, with a chance for thunderstorms across the region
generally after sunrise. Ceilings and visibilities near MVFR may
be possible with any thunderstorms that move into the region with
the frontal boundary.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Kardell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast through the rest of the day
and into the overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the south
southeast through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. Cloud cover will increase by tomorrow
morning, with a chance for thunderstorms across the region
generally after sunrise. Ceilings and visibilities near MVFR may
be possible with any thunderstorms that move into the region with
the frontal boundary.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast through the rest of the day
and into the overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the south
southeast through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. Cloud cover will increase by tomorrow
morning, with a chance for thunderstorms across the region
generally after sunrise. Ceilings and visibilities near MVFR may
be possible with any thunderstorms that move into the region with
the frontal boundary.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231117
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Radar was showing a few sprinkles this morning along and north of
Highway 54. Therefore no precipitation is expected at the TAF
airports.

Other than some mid level cloud cover, skies should remain mostly
clear. No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231117
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Radar was showing a few sprinkles this morning along and north of
Highway 54. Therefore no precipitation is expected at the TAF
airports.

Other than some mid level cloud cover, skies should remain mostly
clear. No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitaton should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitaton should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 230403
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal air mass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist air mass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230403
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal air mass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist air mass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 222253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will become
light and variable this evening eventually becoming light
southeasterly by Wednesday morning. Winds will become gusty by
late morning through tomorrow afternoon for SGF and JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will become
light and variable this evening eventually becoming light
southeasterly by Wednesday morning. Winds will become gusty by
late morning through tomorrow afternoon for SGF and JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 222005
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. An area
of high pressure will continue to push into the region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight, then turn to southeasterly during the morning hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222005
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. An area
of high pressure will continue to push into the region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight, then turn to southeasterly during the morning hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Kardell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. An area
of high pressure will continue to push into the region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight, then turn to southeasterly during the morning hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. An area
of high pressure will continue to push into the region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight, then turn to southeasterly during the morning hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221135
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather conditions over the next 24 hours. VFR is
forecasted through Wednesday morning.

This fair weather will occur in response to high pressure building
over the nations mid section.

At the surface, winds will be light and from the northeast today,
eventually shifting to the south late tonight.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221135
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather conditions over the next 24 hours. VFR is
forecasted through Wednesday morning.

This fair weather will occur in response to high pressure building
over the nations mid section.

At the surface, winds will be light and from the northeast today,
eventually shifting to the south late tonight.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer









000
FXUS63 KSGF 220739
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220739
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities