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000
FXUS63 KSGF 282012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area
wide.

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm
system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area
wide.

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm
system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 282012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area
wide.

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm
system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281756 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the area tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. However, pilots will
need to anticipate low level wind shear.

35 to 40 knots at around 2,000 feet above the surface is expected,
and will create low level wind shear.

Otherwise surface winds from the south will be gusty today. No low
ceilings or obstructions to visibility are forecasted at this
time. The warm and windy weather will occur in response to a ridge
of high pressure moving over the nation`s midsection today.

Safe Travels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. However, pilots will
need to anticipate low level wind shear.

35 to 40 knots at around 2,000 feet above the surface is expected,
and will create low level wind shear.

Otherwise surface winds from the south will be gusty today. No low
ceilings or obstructions to visibility are forecasted at this
time. The warm and windy weather will occur in response to a ridge
of high pressure moving over the nation`s midsection today.

Safe Travels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 280836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 280555
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Bumped up fire weather message a bit for Wednesday. With fcst
temperatures reaching the low 70s over the western cwfa, could mix
down some dry air during the day. MOS dew points in the lower 40s
(KJLN) would support RH values in the lower 30s (%). With wind
gusts of 30-35 mph, modest recent rainfall, and dry dormant
vegetation (especially grasses), mentioned elevated fire potential
for the western cwfa in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 280555
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Bumped up fire weather message a bit for Wednesday. With fcst
temperatures reaching the low 70s over the western cwfa, could mix
down some dry air during the day. MOS dew points in the lower 40s
(KJLN) would support RH values in the lower 30s (%). With wind
gusts of 30-35 mph, modest recent rainfall, and dry dormant
vegetation (especially grasses), mentioned elevated fire potential
for the western cwfa in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280555
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Bumped up fire weather message a bit for Wednesday. With fcst
temperatures reaching the low 70s over the western cwfa, could mix
down some dry air during the day. MOS dew points in the lower 40s
(KJLN) would support RH values in the lower 30s (%). With wind
gusts of 30-35 mph, modest recent rainfall, and dry dormant
vegetation (especially grasses), mentioned elevated fire potential
for the western cwfa in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Generally speaking...VFR conditions are anticipated through the
period. There remains, however, the concerns with increasing wind
shear overnight as the LLJ intensifies. Additionally, guidance is
bringing in relatively higher low level RH values Wednesday
morning, especially for Springfield and Branson terminals albeit
"FEW" at the most. Finally, surface winds will be gusty Wednesday
afternoon as the LLJ is mixed down to the surface.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch/Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Generally speaking...VFR conditions are anticipated through the
period. There remains, however, the concerns with increasing wind
shear overnight as the LLJ intensifies. Additionally, guidance is
bringing in relatively higher low level RH values Wednesday
morning, especially for Springfield and Branson terminals albeit
"FEW" at the most. Finally, surface winds will be gusty Wednesday
afternoon as the LLJ is mixed down to the surface.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch/Frye








000
FXUS63 KSGF 272050
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272050
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271127
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will be light and variable, while little to no cloud
cover is expected.

High pressure over the region is responsible for the fair weather
forecast.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271127
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will be light and variable, while little to no cloud
cover is expected.

High pressure over the region is responsible for the fair weather
forecast.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 270823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 270823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270523
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270523
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 262336
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
536 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 262336
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
536 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 262002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 262002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1115 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Clouds were clearing from the west across the eastern Ozarks at
midday while sunshine had returned elsewhere across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas.

Temperatures will respond to the sunshine and southwesterly winds
by rising into the 50s especially west of Highway 65. Temperatures
will be cooler across the eastern Ozarks with highs approaching 50
degrees.

A surface trough of low pressure will move across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from the southwest to the west and
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1115 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Clouds were clearing from the west across the eastern Ozarks at
midday while sunshine had returned elsewhere across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas.

Temperatures will respond to the sunshine and southwesterly winds
by rising into the 50s especially west of Highway 65. Temperatures
will be cooler across the eastern Ozarks with highs approaching 50
degrees.

A surface trough of low pressure will move across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from the southwest to the west and
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261056
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
456 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 453 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Gradual clearing has taken place across the western CWA overnight
with JLN remaining clear, but SGF/BBG still around 1500 ft
overcast. Will continue to see the clearing trend and with SGF/BBG
clearing by mid morning. May have a couple hour window of some
MVFR fog at JLN with a light wind and clear sky, but will only use
a tempo group for this at this time. After clearing, expecting VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260922
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 260922
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA










000
FXUS63 KSGF 260541
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 260541
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR/IFR ceilings are common across
the area over eastern KS and MO on the west side of low pressure
over southern IN. Clouds are expected to clear and winds diminish
from west to east over the next 12 hours as the low shifts east
and a sfc ridge over the High Plains moves into the area by 12z.
Some shallow fog may develop with light winds and a clearing sky
by 10z-12z and will need to watch trends. By 14z-15z sw winds will
increase with the approach of a sfc trough and may see some
moderate gusts (20 kts) late in the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 260002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR/IFR ceilings are common across
the area over eastern KS and MO on the west side of low pressure
over southern IN. Clouds are expected to clear and winds diminish
from west to east over the next 12 hours as the low shifts east
and a sfc ridge over the High Plains moves into the area by 12z.
Some shallow fog may develop with light winds and a clearing sky
by 10z-12z and will need to watch trends. By 14z-15z sw winds will
increase with the approach of a sfc trough and may see some
moderate gusts (20 kts) late in the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252051
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252051
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann








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