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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230504 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Forecast updated to account for recent radar/observation trends.

Overall the forecast is on track. 00z suite of model output is
coming in at this time and generally supports the going forecast.
The WRF/NAM is a bit more aggressive with developing a broader
area of shower activity across the western/southwestern portions
of the area late tonight and into the daylight hours of Saturday
morning. Recent runs of the HRRR/RUC indicate isolated/scattered
activity, with the incoming GFS generally supporting this idea.

Moisture/lift/instability-wise, there are no dominate players to
key in on. Instability is negligible, with perhaps a hundred or
two of most unstable CAPE by Saturday morning. Aloft, shortwave
ridging is building over the area, noted by a retreating upper
level jet to our north and height rises in the mid levels. In the
lower levels, there is a weak/broad low level jet and gradual
theta-e advection. This will certainly act to (gradually) increase
moisture levels with time and support a "speckly" coverage of
showers as we progress through the overnight hours into Saturday
morning. Not unlike what is being observed across southeastern
Oklahoma at this time.

As a result, have only made minor tweaks to the going PoPs and
added a mention of drizzle along/west of I-49. Temperatures have
been a bit tricky with some pockets of clearing, and have updated
readings to account of varying trends based on cloud coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Complex and challenging forecast for the next 24 hours. See update
section above for specific thoughts on the short term forecast.
JLN will be prone to brief bouts of MVFR cigs the rest of tonight,
otherwise VFR will be the rule with cigs gradually lowering.
Heading into Saturday, a smattering of light showers is possible
near the aerodromes, but the bulk of any organized rain/thunder
will remain to our west. This will change Saturday evening as the
eastern edge of developing showers/storms will approach the JLN
aerodrome. VFR will be the rule Saturday into Saturday evening,
with MVFR potential increasing at JLN after dark.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230504 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Forecast updated to account for recent radar/observation trends.

Overall the forecast is on track. 00z suite of model output is
coming in at this time and generally supports the going forecast.
The WRF/NAM is a bit more aggressive with developing a broader
area of shower activity across the western/southwestern portions
of the area late tonight and into the daylight hours of Saturday
morning. Recent runs of the HRRR/RUC indicate isolated/scattered
activity, with the incoming GFS generally supporting this idea.

Moisture/lift/instability-wise, there are no dominate players to
key in on. Instability is negligible, with perhaps a hundred or
two of most unstable CAPE by Saturday morning. Aloft, shortwave
ridging is building over the area, noted by a retreating upper
level jet to our north and height rises in the mid levels. In the
lower levels, there is a weak/broad low level jet and gradual
theta-e advection. This will certainly act to (gradually) increase
moisture levels with time and support a "speckly" coverage of
showers as we progress through the overnight hours into Saturday
morning. Not unlike what is being observed across southeastern
Oklahoma at this time.

As a result, have only made minor tweaks to the going PoPs and
added a mention of drizzle along/west of I-49. Temperatures have
been a bit tricky with some pockets of clearing, and have updated
readings to account of varying trends based on cloud coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Complex and challenging forecast for the next 24 hours. See update
section above for specific thoughts on the short term forecast.
JLN will be prone to brief bouts of MVFR cigs the rest of tonight,
otherwise VFR will be the rule with cigs gradually lowering.
Heading into Saturday, a smattering of light showers is possible
near the aerodromes, but the bulk of any organized rain/thunder
will remain to our west. This will change Saturday evening as the
eastern edge of developing showers/storms will approach the JLN
aerodrome. VFR will be the rule Saturday into Saturday evening,
with MVFR potential increasing at JLN after dark.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230504 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Forecast updated to account for recent radar/observation trends.

Overall the forecast is on track. 00z suite of model output is
coming in at this time and generally supports the going forecast.
The WRF/NAM is a bit more aggressive with developing a broader
area of shower activity across the western/southwestern portions
of the area late tonight and into the daylight hours of Saturday
morning. Recent runs of the HRRR/RUC indicate isolated/scattered
activity, with the incoming GFS generally supporting this idea.

Moisture/lift/instability-wise, there are no dominate players to
key in on. Instability is negligible, with perhaps a hundred or
two of most unstable CAPE by Saturday morning. Aloft, shortwave
ridging is building over the area, noted by a retreating upper
level jet to our north and height rises in the mid levels. In the
lower levels, there is a weak/broad low level jet and gradual
theta-e advection. This will certainly act to (gradually) increase
moisture levels with time and support a "speckly" coverage of
showers as we progress through the overnight hours into Saturday
morning. Not unlike what is being observed across southeastern
Oklahoma at this time.

As a result, have only made minor tweaks to the going PoPs and
added a mention of drizzle along/west of I-49. Temperatures have
been a bit tricky with some pockets of clearing, and have updated
readings to account of varying trends based on cloud coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Complex and challenging forecast for the next 24 hours. See update
section above for specific thoughts on the short term forecast.
JLN will be prone to brief bouts of MVFR cigs the rest of tonight,
otherwise VFR will be the rule with cigs gradually lowering.
Heading into Saturday, a smattering of light showers is possible
near the aerodromes, but the bulk of any organized rain/thunder
will remain to our west. This will change Saturday evening as the
eastern edge of developing showers/storms will approach the JLN
aerodrome. VFR will be the rule Saturday into Saturday evening,
with MVFR potential increasing at JLN after dark.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230504 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Forecast updated to account for recent radar/observation trends.

Overall the forecast is on track. 00z suite of model output is
coming in at this time and generally supports the going forecast.
The WRF/NAM is a bit more aggressive with developing a broader
area of shower activity across the western/southwestern portions
of the area late tonight and into the daylight hours of Saturday
morning. Recent runs of the HRRR/RUC indicate isolated/scattered
activity, with the incoming GFS generally supporting this idea.

Moisture/lift/instability-wise, there are no dominate players to
key in on. Instability is negligible, with perhaps a hundred or
two of most unstable CAPE by Saturday morning. Aloft, shortwave
ridging is building over the area, noted by a retreating upper
level jet to our north and height rises in the mid levels. In the
lower levels, there is a weak/broad low level jet and gradual
theta-e advection. This will certainly act to (gradually) increase
moisture levels with time and support a "speckly" coverage of
showers as we progress through the overnight hours into Saturday
morning. Not unlike what is being observed across southeastern
Oklahoma at this time.

As a result, have only made minor tweaks to the going PoPs and
added a mention of drizzle along/west of I-49. Temperatures have
been a bit tricky with some pockets of clearing, and have updated
readings to account of varying trends based on cloud coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Complex and challenging forecast for the next 24 hours. See update
section above for specific thoughts on the short term forecast.
JLN will be prone to brief bouts of MVFR cigs the rest of tonight,
otherwise VFR will be the rule with cigs gradually lowering.
Heading into Saturday, a smattering of light showers is possible
near the aerodromes, but the bulk of any organized rain/thunder
will remain to our west. This will change Saturday evening as the
eastern edge of developing showers/storms will approach the JLN
aerodrome. VFR will be the rule Saturday into Saturday evening,
with MVFR potential increasing at JLN after dark.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours around the
Missouri Ozarks area. Have included a mention of VCSH tonight into
tomorrow morning with widely scattered light showers around. Have
also included a PROB30 group for -TSRA tomorrow afternoon for all
TAF sites. Winds will be generally 10 knots out of the southeast
tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 222309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours around the
Missouri Ozarks area. Have included a mention of VCSH tonight into
tomorrow morning with widely scattered light showers around. Have
also included a PROB30 group for -TSRA tomorrow afternoon for all
TAF sites. Winds will be generally 10 knots out of the southeast
tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours around the
Missouri Ozarks area. Have included a mention of VCSH tonight into
tomorrow morning with widely scattered light showers around. Have
also included a PROB30 group for -TSRA tomorrow afternoon for all
TAF sites. Winds will be generally 10 knots out of the southeast
tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 222309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours around the
Missouri Ozarks area. Have included a mention of VCSH tonight into
tomorrow morning with widely scattered light showers around. Have
also included a PROB30 group for -TSRA tomorrow afternoon for all
TAF sites. Winds will be generally 10 knots out of the southeast
tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222036
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Increasing Potential of Heavy Rain and Flooding Saturday Night
through Memorial Day...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Showers have broken out ahead of a mid level disturbance moving
over the southern plain states this afternoon. The 12z balloon at
SGF indicated a pretty dry air-mass out ahead of the approaching
precipitation shield. Precip is having a difficult time reaching
the ground and current thinking is that a majority of this precip
will not make it to the surface as the wave continues to push
eastward.

Additional light and scattered precip development will remain
possible throughout the period, however, exact timing is a bit
tough to pin down at the moment. Better chances over the JLN
terminal. VFR conditions expected through the period at all three
SW MO Aerodromes


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye/Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...18z Aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipitable water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Showers have broken out ahead of a mid level disturbance moving
over the southern plain states this afternoon. The 12z balloon at
SGF indicated a pretty dry air-mass out ahead of the approaching
precipitation shield. Precip is having a difficult time reaching
the ground and current thinking is that a majority of this precip
will not make it to the surface as the wave continues to push
eastward.

Additional light and scattered precip development will remain
possible throughout the period, however, exact timing is a bit
tough to pin down at the moment. Better chances over the JLN
terminal. VFR conditions expected through the period at all three
SW MO Aerodromes

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye/Foster









000
FXUS63 KSGF 221733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...18z Aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipitable water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Showers have broken out ahead of a mid level disturbance moving
over the southern plain states this afternoon. The 12z balloon at
SGF indicated a pretty dry air-mass out ahead of the approaching
precipitation shield. Precip is having a difficult time reaching
the ground and current thinking is that a majority of this precip
will not make it to the surface as the wave continues to push
eastward.

Additional light and scattered precip development will remain
possible throughout the period, however, exact timing is a bit
tough to pin down at the moment. Better chances over the JLN
terminal. VFR conditions expected through the period at all three
SW MO Aerodromes

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye/Foster










000
FXUS63 KSGF 221223
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 719 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

High pressure will remain in control of the areas weather through
the afternoon allowing for VFR flight conditions to continue. An
approaching storm system will bring slowly increasing clouds and
rain chances to the region this evening and into the overnight
hours. The system will need to work its way through dry air in
place. As a result, no impacts to aviation is expected though
showers from 5kft ceilings will be possible overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 221223
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 719 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

High pressure will remain in control of the areas weather through
the afternoon allowing for VFR flight conditions to continue. An
approaching storm system will bring slowly increasing clouds and
rain chances to the region this evening and into the overnight
hours. The system will need to work its way through dry air in
place. As a result, no impacts to aviation is expected though
showers from 5kft ceilings will be possible overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221223
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 719 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

High pressure will remain in control of the areas weather through
the afternoon allowing for VFR flight conditions to continue. An
approaching storm system will bring slowly increasing clouds and
rain chances to the region this evening and into the overnight
hours. The system will need to work its way through dry air in
place. As a result, no impacts to aviation is expected though
showers from 5kft ceilings will be possible overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 221223
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 719 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

High pressure will remain in control of the areas weather through
the afternoon allowing for VFR flight conditions to continue. An
approaching storm system will bring slowly increasing clouds and
rain chances to the region this evening and into the overnight
hours. The system will need to work its way through dry air in
place. As a result, no impacts to aviation is expected though
showers from 5kft ceilings will be possible overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 220906
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
406 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. High
pressure is in control, for now, though this will change over the
next 12-24 hours as a weakening storm system enters from the west.
Dry air in place at this time will fight incoming moisture and we
will see a gradual increase in high, then mid level cloud cover. A
few light showers will be possible at JLN during the mid to late
afternoon hours, otherwise most locations will likely see
sprinkles (if anything). Model output does indicate that ceilings
will gradually lower heading into Friday evening, though stay in
the VFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220906
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
406 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. High
pressure is in control, for now, though this will change over the
next 12-24 hours as a weakening storm system enters from the west.
Dry air in place at this time will fight incoming moisture and we
will see a gradual increase in high, then mid level cloud cover. A
few light showers will be possible at JLN during the mid to late
afternoon hours, otherwise most locations will likely see
sprinkles (if anything). Model output does indicate that ceilings
will gradually lower heading into Friday evening, though stay in
the VFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 220906
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
406 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. High
pressure is in control, for now, though this will change over the
next 12-24 hours as a weakening storm system enters from the west.
Dry air in place at this time will fight incoming moisture and we
will see a gradual increase in high, then mid level cloud cover. A
few light showers will be possible at JLN during the mid to late
afternoon hours, otherwise most locations will likely see
sprinkles (if anything). Model output does indicate that ceilings
will gradually lower heading into Friday evening, though stay in
the VFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220906
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
406 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. High
pressure is in control, for now, though this will change over the
next 12-24 hours as a weakening storm system enters from the west.
Dry air in place at this time will fight incoming moisture and we
will see a gradual increase in high, then mid level cloud cover. A
few light showers will be possible at JLN during the mid to late
afternoon hours, otherwise most locations will likely see
sprinkles (if anything). Model output does indicate that ceilings
will gradually lower heading into Friday evening, though stay in
the VFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 220455 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. High
pressure is in control, for now, though this will change over the
next 12-24 hours as a weakening storm system enters from the west.
Dry air in place at this time will fight incoming moisture and we
will see a gradual increase in high, then mid level cloud cover. A
few light showers will be possible at JLN during the mid to late
afternoon hours, otherwise most locations will likely see
sprinkles (if anything). Model output does indicate that ceilings
will gradually lower heading into Friday evening, though stay in
the VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220455 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. High
pressure is in control, for now, though this will change over the
next 12-24 hours as a weakening storm system enters from the west.
Dry air in place at this time will fight incoming moisture and we
will see a gradual increase in high, then mid level cloud cover. A
few light showers will be possible at JLN during the mid to late
afternoon hours, otherwise most locations will likely see
sprinkles (if anything). Model output does indicate that ceilings
will gradually lower heading into Friday evening, though stay in
the VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 212333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected overnight at the TAF sites as high
pressure settle overhead. Fog potential is low at SGF and JLN but
confidence is lower at BBG. Ceilings will begin to lower by midday
tomorrow and rain chances will then increase for JLN tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield










000
FXUS63 KSGF 212333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected overnight at the TAF sites as high
pressure settle overhead. Fog potential is low at SGF and JLN but
confidence is lower at BBG. Ceilings will begin to lower by midday
tomorrow and rain chances will then increase for JLN tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield










000
FXUS63 KSGF 212333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected overnight at the TAF sites as high
pressure settle overhead. Fog potential is low at SGF and JLN but
confidence is lower at BBG. Ceilings will begin to lower by midday
tomorrow and rain chances will then increase for JLN tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield











000
FXUS63 KSGF 212125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
425 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Increasingly Unsettled with Potential for Heavy Rain this
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
425 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Increasingly Unsettled with Potential for Heavy Rain this
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 212125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
425 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Increasingly Unsettled with Potential for Heavy Rain this
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 212125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
425 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Increasingly Unsettled with Potential for Heavy Rain this
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KSGF 211751
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Stratus/low clouds/drizzle continue in wake of the earlier
shortwave passage yesterday. The unseasonably cool and rain
moistened low level air mass in place and a lack of significant
subsidence to erode the stratus from above has kept the dreary
weather in place.

Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the
Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun
angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and
below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than
expected. For the fcst database/grids will keep conditions cloudy
for much of the morning with a gradual transition to sct-bkn
cumulus.

Temperatures will hinge on the sky clearing and it may be a slow
start to the diurnal temperature rise. Went with a blend of MOS guidance.

Sfc high pressure will move in from the wnw becoming centered over
the area by late afternoon and tonight. Light winds and a drier
air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly this evening then
bounce around. Could actually see some upper 30s in some hilly
micro-climates in the eastern cwfa if higher clouds are not
extensive. Could also see some shallow fog in favored lower/valley
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Potential weather impacts will be gradually increasing rainfall
amounts and possible flooding Sunday-early Tue.

An upper level long wave west coast trough, with smaller scale
circulations pinwheeling around it, is still progged to gradually
shift east slowly into the Rockies over the weekend. A downstream
ridge extending from FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the MS
Vly will help keep the bulk of any precip off to the west and
southwest Fri and early Sat, although some pops are warranted for
the w-sw cwfa as moisture does begin to advect into the region.

Eventually the upper ridge shifts east and with mid level height
falls and better overall lift (along with any smaller scale short
wave features). Periodic rain/tstms chances will increase
Sat night-Sunday into Monday as stronger low level winds bring up
increased Gulf moisture. Model trends seem to be slowing down the
timing a bit with the upper ridge over the southeast U.S. building
and remaining in place and the long wave trough to our west also
slowing a bit, but only have generally minor changes from the
previous forecast. General forecast rainfall of 2+ inches are in
the grids from Sat night-Tue in counties along and west of I-49.

Eventually will have to consider watch headlines for the western
cwfa if the forecast holds, but after coordination with some
surrounding offices agreed to hold off since widespread adverse
impacts are expected later in the weekend (Sunday- Mon-maybe
early Tue).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer









000
FXUS63 KSGF 211751
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Stratus/low clouds/drizzle continue in wake of the earlier
shortwave passage yesterday. The unseasonably cool and rain
moistened low level air mass in place and a lack of significant
subsidence to erode the stratus from above has kept the dreary
weather in place.

Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the
Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun
angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and
below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than
expected. For the fcst database/grids will keep conditions cloudy
for much of the morning with a gradual transition to sct-bkn
cumulus.

Temperatures will hinge on the sky clearing and it may be a slow
start to the diurnal temperature rise. Went with a blend of MOS guidance.

Sfc high pressure will move in from the wnw becoming centered over
the area by late afternoon and tonight. Light winds and a drier
air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly this evening then
bounce around. Could actually see some upper 30s in some hilly
micro-climates in the eastern cwfa if higher clouds are not
extensive. Could also see some shallow fog in favored lower/valley
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Potential weather impacts will be gradually increasing rainfall
amounts and possible flooding Sunday-early Tue.

An upper level long wave west coast trough, with smaller scale
circulations pinwheeling around it, is still progged to gradually
shift east slowly into the Rockies over the weekend. A downstream
ridge extending from FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the MS
Vly will help keep the bulk of any precip off to the west and
southwest Fri and early Sat, although some pops are warranted for
the w-sw cwfa as moisture does begin to advect into the region.

Eventually the upper ridge shifts east and with mid level height
falls and better overall lift (along with any smaller scale short
wave features). Periodic rain/tstms chances will increase
Sat night-Sunday into Monday as stronger low level winds bring up
increased Gulf moisture. Model trends seem to be slowing down the
timing a bit with the upper ridge over the southeast U.S. building
and remaining in place and the long wave trough to our west also
slowing a bit, but only have generally minor changes from the
previous forecast. General forecast rainfall of 2+ inches are in
the grids from Sat night-Tue in counties along and west of I-49.

Eventually will have to consider watch headlines for the western
cwfa if the forecast holds, but after coordination with some
surrounding offices agreed to hold off since widespread adverse
impacts are expected later in the weekend (Sunday- Mon-maybe
early Tue).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 211751
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Stratus/low clouds/drizzle continue in wake of the earlier
shortwave passage yesterday. The unseasonably cool and rain
moistened low level air mass in place and a lack of significant
subsidence to erode the stratus from above has kept the dreary
weather in place.

Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the
Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun
angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and
below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than
expected. For the fcst database/grids will keep conditions cloudy
for much of the morning with a gradual transition to sct-bkn
cumulus.

Temperatures will hinge on the sky clearing and it may be a slow
start to the diurnal temperature rise. Went with a blend of MOS guidance.

Sfc high pressure will move in from the wnw becoming centered over
the area by late afternoon and tonight. Light winds and a drier
air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly this evening then
bounce around. Could actually see some upper 30s in some hilly
micro-climates in the eastern cwfa if higher clouds are not
extensive. Could also see some shallow fog in favored lower/valley
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Potential weather impacts will be gradually increasing rainfall
amounts and possible flooding Sunday-early Tue.

An upper level long wave west coast trough, with smaller scale
circulations pinwheeling around it, is still progged to gradually
shift east slowly into the Rockies over the weekend. A downstream
ridge extending from FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the MS
Vly will help keep the bulk of any precip off to the west and
southwest Fri and early Sat, although some pops are warranted for
the w-sw cwfa as moisture does begin to advect into the region.

Eventually the upper ridge shifts east and with mid level height
falls and better overall lift (along with any smaller scale short
wave features). Periodic rain/tstms chances will increase
Sat night-Sunday into Monday as stronger low level winds bring up
increased Gulf moisture. Model trends seem to be slowing down the
timing a bit with the upper ridge over the southeast U.S. building
and remaining in place and the long wave trough to our west also
slowing a bit, but only have generally minor changes from the
previous forecast. General forecast rainfall of 2+ inches are in
the grids from Sat night-Tue in counties along and west of I-49.

Eventually will have to consider watch headlines for the western
cwfa if the forecast holds, but after coordination with some
surrounding offices agreed to hold off since widespread adverse
impacts are expected later in the weekend (Sunday- Mon-maybe
early Tue).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer









000
FXUS63 KSGF 211751
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Stratus/low clouds/drizzle continue in wake of the earlier
shortwave passage yesterday. The unseasonably cool and rain
moistened low level air mass in place and a lack of significant
subsidence to erode the stratus from above has kept the dreary
weather in place.

Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the
Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun
angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and
below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than
expected. For the fcst database/grids will keep conditions cloudy
for much of the morning with a gradual transition to sct-bkn
cumulus.

Temperatures will hinge on the sky clearing and it may be a slow
start to the diurnal temperature rise. Went with a blend of MOS guidance.

Sfc high pressure will move in from the wnw becoming centered over
the area by late afternoon and tonight. Light winds and a drier
air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly this evening then
bounce around. Could actually see some upper 30s in some hilly
micro-climates in the eastern cwfa if higher clouds are not
extensive. Could also see some shallow fog in favored lower/valley
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Potential weather impacts will be gradually increasing rainfall
amounts and possible flooding Sunday-early Tue.

An upper level long wave west coast trough, with smaller scale
circulations pinwheeling around it, is still progged to gradually
shift east slowly into the Rockies over the weekend. A downstream
ridge extending from FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the MS
Vly will help keep the bulk of any precip off to the west and
southwest Fri and early Sat, although some pops are warranted for
the w-sw cwfa as moisture does begin to advect into the region.

Eventually the upper ridge shifts east and with mid level height
falls and better overall lift (along with any smaller scale short
wave features). Periodic rain/tstms chances will increase
Sat night-Sunday into Monday as stronger low level winds bring up
increased Gulf moisture. Model trends seem to be slowing down the
timing a bit with the upper ridge over the southeast U.S. building
and remaining in place and the long wave trough to our west also
slowing a bit, but only have generally minor changes from the
previous forecast. General forecast rainfall of 2+ inches are in
the grids from Sat night-Tue in counties along and west of I-49.

Eventually will have to consider watch headlines for the western
cwfa if the forecast holds, but after coordination with some
surrounding offices agreed to hold off since widespread adverse
impacts are expected later in the weekend (Sunday- Mon-maybe
early Tue).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 211157
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Stratus/low clouds/drizzle continue in wake of the earlier
shortwave passage yesterday. The unseasonably cool and rain
moistened low level air mass in place and a lack of significant
subsidence to erode the stratus from above has kept the dreary
weather in place.

Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the
Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun
angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and
below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than
expected. For the fcst database/grids will keep conditions cloudy
for much of the morning with a gradual transition to sct-bkn
cumulus.

Temperatures will hinge on the sky clearing and it may be a slow
start to the diurnal temperature rise. Went with a blend of MOS guidance.

Sfc high pressure will move in from the wnw becoming centered over
the area by late afternoon and tonight. Light winds and a drier
air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly this evening then
bounce around. Could actually see some upper 30s in some hilly
micro-climates in the eastern cwfa if higher clouds are not
extensive. Could also see some shallow fog in favored lower/valley
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Potential weather impacts will be gradually increasing rainfall
amounts and possible flooding Sunday-early Tue.

An upper level long wave west coast trough, with smaller scale
circulations pinwheeling around it, is still progged to gradually
shift east slowly into the Rockies over the weekend. A downstream
ridge extending from FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the MS
Vly will help keep the bulk of any precip off to the west and
southwest Fri and early Sat, although some pops are warranted for
the w-sw cwfa as moisture does begin to advect into the region.

Eventually the upper ridge shifts east and with mid level height
falls and better overall lift (along with any smaller scale short
wave features). Periodic rain/tstms chances will increase
Sat night-Sunday into Monday as stronger low level winds bring up
increased Gulf moisture. Model trends seem to be slowing down the
timing a bit with the upper ridge over the southeast U.S. building
and remaining in place and the long wave trough to our west also
slowing a bit, but only have generally minor changes from the
previous forecast. General forecast rainfall of 2+ inches are in
the grids from Sat night-Tue in counties along and west of I-49.

Eventually will have to consider watch headlines for the western
cwfa if the forecast holds, but after coordination with some
surrounding offices agreed to hold off since widespread adverse
impacts are expected later in the weekend (Sunday- Mon-maybe
early Tue).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Flight conditions ate area terminals will see slow improvement
through the morning and into the afternoon as high pressure moves
across the plains and into the Ozarks. Initially MVFR ceilings will
improve to VFR as skies clear this afternoon and remain clear
through the overnight tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 211157
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Stratus/low clouds/drizzle continue in wake of the earlier
shortwave passage yesterday. The unseasonably cool and rain
moistened low level air mass in place and a lack of significant
subsidence to erode the stratus from above has kept the dreary
weather in place.

Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the
Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun
angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and
below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than
expected. For the fcst database/grids will keep conditions cloudy
for much of the morning with a gradual transition to sct-bkn
cumulus.

Temperatures will hinge on the sky clearing and it may be a slow
start to the diurnal temperature rise. Went with a blend of MOS guidance.

Sfc high pressure will move in from the wnw becoming centered over
the area by late afternoon and tonight. Light winds and a drier
air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly this evening then
bounce around. Could actually see some upper 30s in some hilly
micro-climates in the eastern cwfa if higher clouds are not
extensive. Could also see some shallow fog in favored lower/valley
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Potential weather impacts will be gradually increasing rainfall
amounts and possible flooding Sunday-early Tue.

An upper level long wave west coast trough, with smaller scale
circulations pinwheeling around it, is still progged to gradually
shift east slowly into the Rockies over the weekend. A downstream
ridge extending from FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the MS
Vly will help keep the bulk of any precip off to the west and
southwest Fri and early Sat, although some pops are warranted for
the w-sw cwfa as moisture does begin to advect into the region.

Eventually the upper ridge shifts east and with mid level height
falls and better overall lift (along with any smaller scale short
wave features). Periodic rain/tstms chances will increase
Sat night-Sunday into Monday as stronger low level winds bring up
increased Gulf moisture. Model trends seem to be slowing down the
timing a bit with the upper ridge over the southeast U.S. building
and remaining in place and the long wave trough to our west also
slowing a bit, but only have generally minor changes from the
previous forecast. General forecast rainfall of 2+ inches are in
the grids from Sat night-Tue in counties along and west of I-49.

Eventually will have to consider watch headlines for the western
cwfa if the forecast holds, but after coordination with some
surrounding offices agreed to hold off since widespread adverse
impacts are expected later in the weekend (Sunday- Mon-maybe
early Tue).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Flight conditions ate area terminals will see slow improvement
through the morning and into the afternoon as high pressure moves
across the plains and into the Ozarks. Initially MVFR ceilings will
improve to VFR as skies clear this afternoon and remain clear
through the overnight tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 210814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Stratus/low clouds/drizzle continue in wake of the earlier
shortwave passage yesterday. The unseasonably cool and rain
moistened low level air mass in place and a lack of significant
subsidence to erode the stratus from above has kept the dreary
weather in place.

Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the
Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun
angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and
below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than
expected. For the fcst database/grids will keep conditions cloudy
for much of the morning with a gradual transition to sct-bkn
cumulus.

Temperatures will hinge on the sky clearing and it may be a slow
start to the diurnal temperature rise. Went with a blend of MOS guidance.

Sfc high pressure will move in from the wnw becoming centered over
the area by late afternoon and tonight. Light winds and a drier
air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly this evening then
bounce around. Could actually see some upper 30s in some hilly
micro-climates in the eastern cwfa if higher clouds are not
extensive. Could also see some shallow fog in favored lower/valley
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Potential weather impacts will be gradually increasing rainfall
amounts and possible flooding Sunday-early Tue.

An upper level long wave west coast trough, with smaller scale
circulations pinwheeling around it, is still progged to gradually
shift east slowly into the Rockies over the weekend. A downstream
ridge extending from FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the MS
Vly will help keep the bulk of any precip off to the west and
southwest Fri and early Sat, although some pops are warranted for
the w-sw cwfa as moisture does begin to advect into the region.

Eventually the upper ridge shifts east and with mid level height
falls and better overall lift (along with any smaller scale short
wave features). Periodic rain/tstms chances will increase
Sat night-Sunday into Monday as stronger low level winds bring up
increased Gulf moisture. Model trends seem to be slowing down the
timing a bit with the upper ridge over the southeast U.S. building
and remaining in place and the long wave trough to our west also
slowing a bit, but only have generally minor changes from the
previous forecast. General forecast rainfall of 2+ inches are in
the grids from Sat night-Tue in counties along and west of I-49.

Eventually will have to consider watch headlines for the western
cwfa if the forecast holds, but after coordination with some
surrounding offices agreed to hold off since widespread adverse
impacts are expected later in the weekend (Sunday- Mon-maybe
early Tue).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Stratus will persist across the area the remainder of tonight,
gradually improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.
IFR conditions look to be most common at SGF/BBG, though
conditions may vary at times. Highest uncertainty continues with
JLN, as they have bounced between MVFR and VFR over the past few
hours. MVFR ceilings persist upstream, and have maintained MVFR
for the rest of the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect northerly
winds through Thursday afternoon, becoming light and variable
Thursday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Stratus/low clouds/drizzle continue in wake of the earlier
shortwave passage yesterday. The unseasonably cool and rain
moistened low level air mass in place and a lack of significant
subsidence to erode the stratus from above has kept the dreary
weather in place.

Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the
Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun
angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and
below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than
expected. For the fcst database/grids will keep conditions cloudy
for much of the morning with a gradual transition to sct-bkn
cumulus.

Temperatures will hinge on the sky clearing and it may be a slow
start to the diurnal temperature rise. Went with a blend of MOS guidance.

Sfc high pressure will move in from the wnw becoming centered over
the area by late afternoon and tonight. Light winds and a drier
air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly this evening then
bounce around. Could actually see some upper 30s in some hilly
micro-climates in the eastern cwfa if higher clouds are not
extensive. Could also see some shallow fog in favored lower/valley
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Potential weather impacts will be gradually increasing rainfall
amounts and possible flooding Sunday-early Tue.

An upper level long wave west coast trough, with smaller scale
circulations pinwheeling around it, is still progged to gradually
shift east slowly into the Rockies over the weekend. A downstream
ridge extending from FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the MS
Vly will help keep the bulk of any precip off to the west and
southwest Fri and early Sat, although some pops are warranted for
the w-sw cwfa as moisture does begin to advect into the region.

Eventually the upper ridge shifts east and with mid level height
falls and better overall lift (along with any smaller scale short
wave features). Periodic rain/tstms chances will increase
Sat night-Sunday into Monday as stronger low level winds bring up
increased Gulf moisture. Model trends seem to be slowing down the
timing a bit with the upper ridge over the southeast U.S. building
and remaining in place and the long wave trough to our west also
slowing a bit, but only have generally minor changes from the
previous forecast. General forecast rainfall of 2+ inches are in
the grids from Sat night-Tue in counties along and west of I-49.

Eventually will have to consider watch headlines for the western
cwfa if the forecast holds, but after coordination with some
surrounding offices agreed to hold off since widespread adverse
impacts are expected later in the weekend (Sunday- Mon-maybe
early Tue).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Stratus will persist across the area the remainder of tonight,
gradually improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.
IFR conditions look to be most common at SGF/BBG, though
conditions may vary at times. Highest uncertainty continues with
JLN, as they have bounced between MVFR and VFR over the past few
hours. MVFR ceilings persist upstream, and have maintained MVFR
for the rest of the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect northerly
winds through Thursday afternoon, becoming light and variable
Thursday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 210459 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1159 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Stratus will persist across the area the remainder of tonight,
gradually improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.
IFR conditions look to be most common at SGF/BBG, though
conditions may vary at times. Highest uncertainty continues with
JLN, as they have bounced between MVFR and VFR over the past few
hours. MVFR ceilings persist upstream, and have maintained MVFR
for the rest of the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect northerly
winds through Thursday afternoon, becoming light and variable
Thursday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210459 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1159 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Stratus will persist across the area the remainder of tonight,
gradually improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.
IFR conditions look to be most common at SGF/BBG, though
conditions may vary at times. Highest uncertainty continues with
JLN, as they have bounced between MVFR and VFR over the past few
hours. MVFR ceilings persist upstream, and have maintained MVFR
for the rest of the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect northerly
winds through Thursday afternoon, becoming light and variable
Thursday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 202343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

High confidence that IFR conditions will continue overnight as
light northerly winds continue over the plateau. Drizzle is
possible this evening at SGF. Ceilings will continue to drop
overnight to LIFR as stratus builds down, especially at BBG and
SGF. Conditions look to improve to MVFR by late tomorrow morning
or early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

High confidence that IFR conditions will continue overnight as
light northerly winds continue over the plateau. Drizzle is
possible this evening at SGF. Ceilings will continue to drop
overnight to LIFR as stratus builds down, especially at BBG and
SGF. Conditions look to improve to MVFR by late tomorrow morning
or early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 202343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

High confidence that IFR conditions will continue overnight as
light northerly winds continue over the plateau. Drizzle is
possible this evening at SGF. Ceilings will continue to drop
overnight to LIFR as stratus builds down, especially at BBG and
SGF. Conditions look to improve to MVFR by late tomorrow morning
or early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

High confidence that IFR conditions will continue overnight as
light northerly winds continue over the plateau. Drizzle is
possible this evening at SGF. Ceilings will continue to drop
overnight to LIFR as stratus builds down, especially at BBG and
SGF. Conditions look to improve to MVFR by late tomorrow morning
or early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 202016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...Unseasonably Cool through Friday then an Unsettled Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Weak surface low currently moving
through southern Missouri. Main rain area has moved east of the taf
sites, although a light band of rain now affecting KSGF and KBBG
which should move east shortly after 18Z. Ample low level moisture
resides behind the system back into southeast Kansas with IFR
ceilings. However, visibilities have come up and expect this trend
will also occur at KSGF and KBBG for a time this afternoon. IFR
ceilings expected through early Thursday morning with visibilities
once again dropping into the MVFR upper IFR category later this
evening.

High pressure begins to build into the region Thursday and expect
improving conditions from mid morning on.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...Unseasonably Cool through Friday then an Unsettled Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Weak surface low currently moving
through southern Missouri. Main rain area has moved east of the taf
sites, although a light band of rain now affecting KSGF and KBBG
which should move east shortly after 18Z. Ample low level moisture
resides behind the system back into southeast Kansas with IFR
ceilings. However, visibilities have come up and expect this trend
will also occur at KSGF and KBBG for a time this afternoon. IFR
ceilings expected through early Thursday morning with visibilities
once again dropping into the MVFR upper IFR category later this
evening.

High pressure begins to build into the region Thursday and expect
improving conditions from mid morning on.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding








000
FXUS63 KSGF 201734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Weak surface low currently moving
through southern Missouri. Main rain area has moved east of the taf
sites, although a light band of rain now affecting KSGF and KBBG
which should move east shortly after 18Z. Ample low level moisture
resides behind the system back into southeast Kansas with IFR
ceilings. However, visibilities have come up and expect this trend
will also occur at KSGF and KBBG for a time this afternoon. IFR
ceilings expected through early Thursday morning with visibilities
once again dropping into the MVFR upper IFR category later this
evening.

High pressure begins to build into the region Thursday and expect
improving conditions from mid morning on.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding








000
FXUS63 KSGF 201734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Weak surface low currently moving
through southern Missouri. Main rain area has moved east of the taf
sites, although a light band of rain now affecting KSGF and KBBG
which should move east shortly after 18Z. Ample low level moisture
resides behind the system back into southeast Kansas with IFR
ceilings. However, visibilities have come up and expect this trend
will also occur at KSGF and KBBG for a time this afternoon. IFR
ceilings expected through early Thursday morning with visibilities
once again dropping into the MVFR upper IFR category later this
evening.

High pressure begins to build into the region Thursday and expect
improving conditions from mid morning on.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Weak surface low currently moving
through southern Missouri. Main rain area has moved east of the taf
sites, although a light band of rain now affecting KSGF and KBBG
which should move east shortly after 18Z. Ample low level moisture
resides behind the system back into southeast Kansas with IFR
ceilings. However, visibilities have come up and expect this trend
will also occur at KSGF and KBBG for a time this afternoon. IFR
ceilings expected through early Thursday morning with visibilities
once again dropping into the MVFR upper IFR category later this
evening.

High pressure begins to build into the region Thursday and expect
improving conditions from mid morning on.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding








000
FXUS63 KSGF 201734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Weak surface low currently moving
through southern Missouri. Main rain area has moved east of the taf
sites, although a light band of rain now affecting KSGF and KBBG
which should move east shortly after 18Z. Ample low level moisture
resides behind the system back into southeast Kansas with IFR
ceilings. However, visibilities have come up and expect this trend
will also occur at KSGF and KBBG for a time this afternoon. IFR
ceilings expected through early Thursday morning with visibilities
once again dropping into the MVFR upper IFR category later this
evening.

High pressure begins to build into the region Thursday and expect
improving conditions from mid morning on.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201149
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Aviators flying into Ozark terminals will experience limits to
ceilings and visibilities through the forecast period. Rain was
moving across the region this morning with MVFR to IFR conditions
for both visibility and ceilings. While rain will begin to taper
off this afternoon, northerly winds will bring continued MVFR to
IFR ceilings to the region through the remainder of the day and
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 201149
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Aviators flying into Ozark terminals will experience limits to
ceilings and visibilities through the forecast period. Rain was
moving across the region this morning with MVFR to IFR conditions
for both visibility and ceilings. While rain will begin to taper
off this afternoon, northerly winds will bring continued MVFR to
IFR ceilings to the region through the remainder of the day and
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 201149
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Aviators flying into Ozark terminals will experience limits to
ceilings and visibilities through the forecast period. Rain was
moving across the region this morning with MVFR to IFR conditions
for both visibility and ceilings. While rain will begin to taper
off this afternoon, northerly winds will bring continued MVFR to
IFR ceilings to the region through the remainder of the day and
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 201149
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Aviators flying into Ozark terminals will experience limits to
ceilings and visibilities through the forecast period. Rain was
moving across the region this morning with MVFR to IFR conditions
for both visibility and ceilings. While rain will begin to taper
off this afternoon, northerly winds will bring continued MVFR to
IFR ceilings to the region through the remainder of the day and
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 200832
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Ceilings will lower overnight with rain developing as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. MVFR conditions will
deteriorate to IFR by sunrise across much of southern Missouri. A
few thunderstorms may also be embedded within the rain. Ceilings
may then improve into the low-end MVFR category Wednesday
afternoon as the rain comes to an end behind a passing cold front.
Low-end MVFR or IFR will then persist into Wednesday evening.
Surface winds will remain out of the east before switching to the
north behind that front on Wednesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann









000
FXUS63 KSGF 200832
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Ceilings will lower overnight with rain developing as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. MVFR conditions will
deteriorate to IFR by sunrise across much of southern Missouri. A
few thunderstorms may also be embedded within the rain. Ceilings
may then improve into the low-end MVFR category Wednesday
afternoon as the rain comes to an end behind a passing cold front.
Low-end MVFR or IFR will then persist into Wednesday evening.
Surface winds will remain out of the east before switching to the
north behind that front on Wednesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann








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