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000
FXUS63 KSGF 022332
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A weak frontal boundary had sagged southward to near the Arkansas
border this afternoon. A few multi-cell clusters and even a
earlier supercell had developed along this boundary. A limited
risk for severe weather remains along the Arkansas boarder through
8 PM within axis of better instability. Expect any severe weather
threat to end during the early evening.

Activity across northeastern Kansas will be monitored as it slides
southeastward as this may impact southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri during the night. However severe weather is not
expected with this activity.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Residual flooding from previous two days/nights of heavy rainfall
continues across much of the forecast area. Many low water
crossing remain flooded, along with road closures and rivers are
running high. Flooding will likely continue into the evening and
areal flood warnings may need to be extended past 5 pm.

Currently have showers and thunderstorms associated with upper
level energy across central and southern Kansas pushing south-
southeast. This activity extends northeast into eastern Nebraska
and northwest Missouri and may push into the Ozarks region this
evening.

In addition, a boundary remains positioned from west to east
across far southern Missouri this afternoon and may be the focus
for additional thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening.

The focus with this forecast will be with these thunderstorm
chances tonight through the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Bulk of the hi-res models show the convection moving in from the
northwest staying to the west over Kansas and may push into west
central MO and extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Along the
southern boundary, models keep most of the convection to our south
across Arkansas. That said, we are still keeping pops in for
tonight with favored areas across the west with the upper level
shortwave, and the south along and south of the boundary. The
southern storms will have the highest potential of becoming strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe
weather risks. For rainfall, it does not appear we will have the
same setup for organized convection tonight as we have had the
past couple of nights and rainfall will be more scattered and much
less than in previous nights. Residual flooding will likely
persist tonight however with some river/stream crests still not
occurring yet.

More shortwave energy will dive southeast into the area on Friday
with the frontal boundary still bisecting southern MO. Will hold
on to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day for the forecast.
Again, not expecting widespread heavy rain, but more scattered
with the rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Heading into the holiday weekend, the thunderstorm chances will
remain as we continue in a west-northwest flow pattern aloft with
shortwave energy continuing to push through. However main
shortwave will push through on Friday and precipitation chances
will lessen from Friday night into Sunday.

Things become more problematic again during the early part of next
week as we get into more of a westerly pattern aloft and a front
boundary begins to stall out across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be forecast through the remainder of the
extended period and it looks like the potential for more heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A very moist low level airmass and light northeasterly flow at the
surface will support MVFR ceilings tonight into Friday morning.
Areas of fog and MVFR visibilities may also develop overnight.
Ceilings will gradually rise into the VFR category by Friday
afternoon. Thunderstorms may impact the Branson vicinity early
this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 022332
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A weak frontal boundary had sagged southward to near the Arkansas
border this afternoon. A few multi-cell clusters and even a
earlier supercell had developed along this boundary. A limited
risk for severe weather remains along the Arkansas boarder through
8 PM within axis of better instability. Expect any severe weather
threat to end during the early evening.

Activity across northeastern Kansas will be monitored as it slides
southeastward as this may impact southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri during the night. However severe weather is not
expected with this activity.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Residual flooding from previous two days/nights of heavy rainfall
continues across much of the forecast area. Many low water
crossing remain flooded, along with road closures and rivers are
running high. Flooding will likely continue into the evening and
areal flood warnings may need to be extended past 5 pm.

Currently have showers and thunderstorms associated with upper
level energy across central and southern Kansas pushing south-
southeast. This activity extends northeast into eastern Nebraska
and northwest Missouri and may push into the Ozarks region this
evening.

In addition, a boundary remains positioned from west to east
across far southern Missouri this afternoon and may be the focus
for additional thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening.

The focus with this forecast will be with these thunderstorm
chances tonight through the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Bulk of the hi-res models show the convection moving in from the
northwest staying to the west over Kansas and may push into west
central MO and extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Along the
southern boundary, models keep most of the convection to our south
across Arkansas. That said, we are still keeping pops in for
tonight with favored areas across the west with the upper level
shortwave, and the south along and south of the boundary. The
southern storms will have the highest potential of becoming strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe
weather risks. For rainfall, it does not appear we will have the
same setup for organized convection tonight as we have had the
past couple of nights and rainfall will be more scattered and much
less than in previous nights. Residual flooding will likely
persist tonight however with some river/stream crests still not
occurring yet.

More shortwave energy will dive southeast into the area on Friday
with the frontal boundary still bisecting southern MO. Will hold
on to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day for the forecast.
Again, not expecting widespread heavy rain, but more scattered
with the rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Heading into the holiday weekend, the thunderstorm chances will
remain as we continue in a west-northwest flow pattern aloft with
shortwave energy continuing to push through. However main
shortwave will push through on Friday and precipitation chances
will lessen from Friday night into Sunday.

Things become more problematic again during the early part of next
week as we get into more of a westerly pattern aloft and a front
boundary begins to stall out across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be forecast through the remainder of the
extended period and it looks like the potential for more heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A very moist low level airmass and light northeasterly flow at the
surface will support MVFR ceilings tonight into Friday morning.
Areas of fog and MVFR visibilities may also develop overnight.
Ceilings will gradually rise into the VFR category by Friday
afternoon. Thunderstorms may impact the Branson vicinity early
this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 022332
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A weak frontal boundary had sagged southward to near the Arkansas
border this afternoon. A few multi-cell clusters and even a
earlier supercell had developed along this boundary. A limited
risk for severe weather remains along the Arkansas boarder through
8 PM within axis of better instability. Expect any severe weather
threat to end during the early evening.

Activity across northeastern Kansas will be monitored as it slides
southeastward as this may impact southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri during the night. However severe weather is not
expected with this activity.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Residual flooding from previous two days/nights of heavy rainfall
continues across much of the forecast area. Many low water
crossing remain flooded, along with road closures and rivers are
running high. Flooding will likely continue into the evening and
areal flood warnings may need to be extended past 5 pm.

Currently have showers and thunderstorms associated with upper
level energy across central and southern Kansas pushing south-
southeast. This activity extends northeast into eastern Nebraska
and northwest Missouri and may push into the Ozarks region this
evening.

In addition, a boundary remains positioned from west to east
across far southern Missouri this afternoon and may be the focus
for additional thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening.

The focus with this forecast will be with these thunderstorm
chances tonight through the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Bulk of the hi-res models show the convection moving in from the
northwest staying to the west over Kansas and may push into west
central MO and extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Along the
southern boundary, models keep most of the convection to our south
across Arkansas. That said, we are still keeping pops in for
tonight with favored areas across the west with the upper level
shortwave, and the south along and south of the boundary. The
southern storms will have the highest potential of becoming strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe
weather risks. For rainfall, it does not appear we will have the
same setup for organized convection tonight as we have had the
past couple of nights and rainfall will be more scattered and much
less than in previous nights. Residual flooding will likely
persist tonight however with some river/stream crests still not
occurring yet.

More shortwave energy will dive southeast into the area on Friday
with the frontal boundary still bisecting southern MO. Will hold
on to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day for the forecast.
Again, not expecting widespread heavy rain, but more scattered
with the rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Heading into the holiday weekend, the thunderstorm chances will
remain as we continue in a west-northwest flow pattern aloft with
shortwave energy continuing to push through. However main
shortwave will push through on Friday and precipitation chances
will lessen from Friday night into Sunday.

Things become more problematic again during the early part of next
week as we get into more of a westerly pattern aloft and a front
boundary begins to stall out across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be forecast through the remainder of the
extended period and it looks like the potential for more heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A very moist low level airmass and light northeasterly flow at the
surface will support MVFR ceilings tonight into Friday morning.
Areas of fog and MVFR visibilities may also develop overnight.
Ceilings will gradually rise into the VFR category by Friday
afternoon. Thunderstorms may impact the Branson vicinity early
this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 022332
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A weak frontal boundary had sagged southward to near the Arkansas
border this afternoon. A few multi-cell clusters and even a
earlier supercell had developed along this boundary. A limited
risk for severe weather remains along the Arkansas boarder through
8 PM within axis of better instability. Expect any severe weather
threat to end during the early evening.

Activity across northeastern Kansas will be monitored as it slides
southeastward as this may impact southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri during the night. However severe weather is not
expected with this activity.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Residual flooding from previous two days/nights of heavy rainfall
continues across much of the forecast area. Many low water
crossing remain flooded, along with road closures and rivers are
running high. Flooding will likely continue into the evening and
areal flood warnings may need to be extended past 5 pm.

Currently have showers and thunderstorms associated with upper
level energy across central and southern Kansas pushing south-
southeast. This activity extends northeast into eastern Nebraska
and northwest Missouri and may push into the Ozarks region this
evening.

In addition, a boundary remains positioned from west to east
across far southern Missouri this afternoon and may be the focus
for additional thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening.

The focus with this forecast will be with these thunderstorm
chances tonight through the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Bulk of the hi-res models show the convection moving in from the
northwest staying to the west over Kansas and may push into west
central MO and extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Along the
southern boundary, models keep most of the convection to our south
across Arkansas. That said, we are still keeping pops in for
tonight with favored areas across the west with the upper level
shortwave, and the south along and south of the boundary. The
southern storms will have the highest potential of becoming strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe
weather risks. For rainfall, it does not appear we will have the
same setup for organized convection tonight as we have had the
past couple of nights and rainfall will be more scattered and much
less than in previous nights. Residual flooding will likely
persist tonight however with some river/stream crests still not
occurring yet.

More shortwave energy will dive southeast into the area on Friday
with the frontal boundary still bisecting southern MO. Will hold
on to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day for the forecast.
Again, not expecting widespread heavy rain, but more scattered
with the rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Heading into the holiday weekend, the thunderstorm chances will
remain as we continue in a west-northwest flow pattern aloft with
shortwave energy continuing to push through. However main
shortwave will push through on Friday and precipitation chances
will lessen from Friday night into Sunday.

Things become more problematic again during the early part of next
week as we get into more of a westerly pattern aloft and a front
boundary begins to stall out across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be forecast through the remainder of the
extended period and it looks like the potential for more heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A very moist low level airmass and light northeasterly flow at the
surface will support MVFR ceilings tonight into Friday morning.
Areas of fog and MVFR visibilities may also develop overnight.
Ceilings will gradually rise into the VFR category by Friday
afternoon. Thunderstorms may impact the Branson vicinity early
this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 021930
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Residual flooding from previous two days/nights of heavy rainfall
continues across much of the forecast area. Many low water
crossing remain flooded, along with road closures and rivers are
running high. Flooding will likely continue into the evening and
areal flood warnings may need to be extended past 5 pm.

Currently have showers and thunderstorms associated with upper
level energy across central and southern Kansas pushing south-
southeast. This activity extends northeast into eastern Nebraska
and northwest Missouri and may push into the Ozarks region this
evening.

In addition, a boundary remains positioned from west to east
across far southern Missouri this afternoon and may be the focus
for additional thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening.

The focus with this forecast will be with these thunderstorm
chances tonight through the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Bulk of the hi-res models show the convection moving in from the
northwest staying to the west over Kansas and may push into west
central MO and extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Along the
southern boundary, models keep most of the convection to our south
across Arkansas. That said, we are still keeping pops in for
tonight with favored areas across the west with the upper level
shortwave, and the south along and south of the boundary. The
southern storms will have the highest potential of becoming strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe
weather risks. For rainfall, it does not appear we will have the
same setup for organized convection tonight as we have had the
past couple of nights and rainfall will be more scattered and much
less than in previous nights. Residual flooding will likely
persist tonight however with some river/stream crests still not
occuring yet.

More shortwave energy will dive southeast into the area on Friday
with the frontal boundary still bisecting southern MO. Will hold
on to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day for the forecast.
Again, not expecting widespread heavy rain, but more scattered
with the rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Heading into the holiday weekend, the thunderstorm chances will
remain as we continue in a west-northwest flow pattern aloft with
shortwave energy continuing to push through. However main
shortwave will push through on Friday and precipitation chances
will lessen from Friday night into Sunday.

Things become more problematic again during the early part of next
week as we get into more of a westerly pattern aloft and a front
boundary begins to stall out across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be forecast through the remainder of the
extended period and it looks like the potential for more heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon and
into this evening. An area of showers and storms was moving to the
ESE across eastern Kansas which is expected to impact portions of
the region this evening. Visibilities overnight may be impacted
with fog and or low ceilings with MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
After sunrise on Friday, visibilities will improve but ceilings
will remain MVFR.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 021930
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Residual flooding from previous two days/nights of heavy rainfall
continues across much of the forecast area. Many low water
crossing remain flooded, along with road closures and rivers are
running high. Flooding will likely continue into the evening and
areal flood warnings may need to be extended past 5 pm.

Currently have showers and thunderstorms associated with upper
level energy across central and southern Kansas pushing south-
southeast. This activity extends northeast into eastern Nebraska
and northwest Missouri and may push into the Ozarks region this
evening.

In addition, a boundary remains positioned from west to east
across far southern Missouri this afternoon and may be the focus
for additional thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening.

The focus with this forecast will be with these thunderstorm
chances tonight through the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Bulk of the hi-res models show the convection moving in from the
northwest staying to the west over Kansas and may push into west
central MO and extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Along the
southern boundary, models keep most of the convection to our south
across Arkansas. That said, we are still keeping pops in for
tonight with favored areas across the west with the upper level
shortwave, and the south along and south of the boundary. The
southern storms will have the highest potential of becoming strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe
weather risks. For rainfall, it does not appear we will have the
same setup for organized convection tonight as we have had the
past couple of nights and rainfall will be more scattered and much
less than in previous nights. Residual flooding will likely
persist tonight however with some river/stream crests still not
occuring yet.

More shortwave energy will dive southeast into the area on Friday
with the frontal boundary still bisecting southern MO. Will hold
on to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day for the forecast.
Again, not expecting widespread heavy rain, but more scattered
with the rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Heading into the holiday weekend, the thunderstorm chances will
remain as we continue in a west-northwest flow pattern aloft with
shortwave energy continuing to push through. However main
shortwave will push through on Friday and precipitation chances
will lessen from Friday night into Sunday.

Things become more problematic again during the early part of next
week as we get into more of a westerly pattern aloft and a front
boundary begins to stall out across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be forecast through the remainder of the
extended period and it looks like the potential for more heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon and
into this evening. An area of showers and storms was moving to the
ESE across eastern Kansas which is expected to impact portions of
the region this evening. Visibilities overnight may be impacted
with fog and or low ceilings with MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
After sunrise on Friday, visibilities will improve but ceilings
will remain MVFR.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 021813
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon and
into this evening. An area of showers and storms was moving to the
ESE across eastern Kansas which is expected to impact portions of
the region this evening. Visibilities overnight may be impacted
with fog and or low ceilings with MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
After sunrise on Friday, visibilities will improve but ceilings
will remain MVFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 021813
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon and
into this evening. An area of showers and storms was moving to the
ESE across eastern Kansas which is expected to impact portions of
the region this evening. Visibilities overnight may be impacted
with fog and or low ceilings with MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
After sunrise on Friday, visibilities will improve but ceilings
will remain MVFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 021813
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon and
into this evening. An area of showers and storms was moving to the
ESE across eastern Kansas which is expected to impact portions of
the region this evening. Visibilities overnight may be impacted
with fog and or low ceilings with MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
After sunrise on Friday, visibilities will improve but ceilings
will remain MVFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 021813
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon and
into this evening. An area of showers and storms was moving to the
ESE across eastern Kansas which is expected to impact portions of
the region this evening. Visibilities overnight may be impacted
with fog and or low ceilings with MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
After sunrise on Friday, visibilities will improve but ceilings
will remain MVFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 021110
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered areas of MVFR ceilings will persist this morning across
southern Missouri behind a departing area of thunderstorms.
Ceilings will then rise this afternoon with winds shifting to the
north behind a low pressure system. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across southern Missouri. MVFR
and brief IFR conditions can be expected with any storms. There is
then some potential for at least light fog development late
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 021110
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered areas of MVFR ceilings will persist this morning across
southern Missouri behind a departing area of thunderstorms.
Ceilings will then rise this afternoon with winds shifting to the
north behind a low pressure system. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across southern Missouri. MVFR
and brief IFR conditions can be expected with any storms. There is
then some potential for at least light fog development late
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 021110
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered areas of MVFR ceilings will persist this morning across
southern Missouri behind a departing area of thunderstorms.
Ceilings will then rise this afternoon with winds shifting to the
north behind a low pressure system. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across southern Missouri. MVFR
and brief IFR conditions can be expected with any storms. There is
then some potential for at least light fog development late
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 021110
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Scattered areas of MVFR ceilings will persist this morning across
southern Missouri behind a departing area of thunderstorms.
Ceilings will then rise this afternoon with winds shifting to the
north behind a low pressure system. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across southern Missouri. MVFR
and brief IFR conditions can be expected with any storms. There is
then some potential for at least light fog development late
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 020749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Thunderstorms will move south toward and eventually through the
terminals early this morning. Strong wind gusts are expected with
these, with 25-35 KT likely...and 40-50 KT possible. In
addition...heavy rain will result in IFR or LIFR vis in and around
thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this
afternoon and affect the terminals...though this potential is
still rather unclear at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 020749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Thunderstorms will move south toward and eventually through the
terminals early this morning. Strong wind gusts are expected with
these, with 25-35 KT likely...and 40-50 KT possible. In
addition...heavy rain will result in IFR or LIFR vis in and around
thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this
afternoon and affect the terminals...though this potential is
still rather unclear at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020600
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...06Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Thunderstorms will move south toward and eventually through the
terminals early this morning. Strong wind gusts are expected with
these, with 25-35 KT likely...and 40-50 KT possible. In
addition...heavy rain will result in IFR or LIFR vis in and around
thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this
afternoon and affect the terminals...though this potential is
still rather unclear at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 020600
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...06Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Thunderstorms will move south toward and eventually through the
terminals early this morning. Strong wind gusts are expected with
these, with 25-35 KT likely...and 40-50 KT possible. In
addition...heavy rain will result in IFR or LIFR vis in and around
thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this
afternoon and affect the terminals...though this potential is
still rather unclear at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 012311
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
611 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Convection just now starting to initiate in the KC metro area and
will continue to track southeast through the evening. Have storms
rolling into the SGF/JLN areas between 02z and 04z in the TAFS
which will drop flight conditions into MVFR/IFR for several hours
during the late evening into the overnight hours. Winds will
gradually veer to the southwest and west overnight before becoming
northwest to north during the day Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 012311
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
611 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Convection just now starting to initiate in the KC metro area and
will continue to track southeast through the evening. Have storms
rolling into the SGF/JLN areas between 02z and 04z in the TAFS
which will drop flight conditions into MVFR/IFR for several hours
during the late evening into the overnight hours. Winds will
gradually veer to the southwest and west overnight before becoming
northwest to north during the day Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 011936
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Biggest question is on both convective
potential this afternoon/evening and its exact timing for the taf sites.
Currently, water vapor imagery showing shortwave over southeast
Nebraska with short term models pushing this southeast across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Although
clouds have been prevalent at the taf sites, some breaks are
occurring and expect atmosphere to destabilize across southwest
Missouri. Convection likely to develop late this afternoon and
evening and then traverse to the southeast overnight maintained by
an increasing low level jet/moisture transport. Short term models
suggesting these cells could affect the taf sites from mid
evening on, especially at KSGF and KBBG. Due to uncertainties did
only go with a prob30 group at KSGF and KBBG and VCTS at KJLN.
With strengthening low level jet again tonight expect some LLWS to
develop once again.

As for ceilings/visibilities, mainly VFR expected with lower MVFR
and possibly IFR in the stronger convective elements. Models do
suggest more widespread MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
Thursday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 011936
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Biggest question is on both convective
potential this afternoon/evening and its exact timing for the taf sites.
Currently, water vapor imagery showing shortwave over southeast
Nebraska with short term models pushing this southeast across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Although
clouds have been prevalent at the taf sites, some breaks are
occurring and expect atmosphere to destabilize across southwest
Missouri. Convection likely to develop late this afternoon and
evening and then traverse to the southeast overnight maintained by
an increasing low level jet/moisture transport. Short term models
suggesting these cells could affect the taf sites from mid
evening on, especially at KSGF and KBBG. Due to uncertainties did
only go with a prob30 group at KSGF and KBBG and VCTS at KJLN.
With strengthening low level jet again tonight expect some LLWS to
develop once again.

As for ceilings/visibilities, mainly VFR expected with lower MVFR
and possibly IFR in the stronger convective elements. Models do
suggest more widespread MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
Thursday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Raberding








000
FXUS63 KSGF 011742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Biggest question is on both convective
potential this afternoon/evening and its exact timing for the taf sites.
Currently, water vapor imagery showing shortwave over southeast
Nebraska with short term models pushing this southeast across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Although
clouds have been prevalent at the taf sites, some breaks are
occurring and expect atmosphere to destabilize across southwest
Missouri. Convection likely to develop late this afternoon and
evening and then traverse to the southeast overnight maintained by
an increasing low level jet/moisture transport. Short term models
suggesting these cells could affect the taf sites from mid
evening on, especially at KSGF and KBBG. Due to uncertainties did
only go with a prob30 group at KSGF and KBBG and VCTS at KJLN.
With strengthening low level jet again tonight expect some LLWS to
develop once again.

As for ceilings/visibilities, mainly VFR expected with lower MVFR
and possibly IFR in the stronger convective elements. Models do
suggest more widespread MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 011742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Biggest question is on both convective
potential this afternoon/evening and its exact timing for the taf sites.
Currently, water vapor imagery showing shortwave over southeast
Nebraska with short term models pushing this southeast across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Although
clouds have been prevalent at the taf sites, some breaks are
occurring and expect atmosphere to destabilize across southwest
Missouri. Convection likely to develop late this afternoon and
evening and then traverse to the southeast overnight maintained by
an increasing low level jet/moisture transport. Short term models
suggesting these cells could affect the taf sites from mid
evening on, especially at KSGF and KBBG. Due to uncertainties did
only go with a prob30 group at KSGF and KBBG and VCTS at KJLN.
With strengthening low level jet again tonight expect some LLWS to
develop once again.

As for ceilings/visibilities, mainly VFR expected with lower MVFR
and possibly IFR in the stronger convective elements. Models do
suggest more widespread MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Raberding








000
FXUS63 KSGF 011118
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For early this morning, will need to watch convection north of the
JLN terminal, but for now think it will remain just northeast of
the airport. Have also kept SGF and JLN dry for this morning. We
should see a break from the thunderstorm activity later this
morning into the afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty today.

Later this evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is
expected, though timing and exact coverage is uncertain enough to
just continue to VCTS mention for now. Strong winds and heavy rain
is likely if/when convection affects the terminals. The forecast
should be able to be fine tuned later today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 011118
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For early this morning, will need to watch convection north of the
JLN terminal, but for now think it will remain just northeast of
the airport. Have also kept SGF and JLN dry for this morning. We
should see a break from the thunderstorm activity later this
morning into the afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty today.

Later this evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is
expected, though timing and exact coverage is uncertain enough to
just continue to VCTS mention for now. Strong winds and heavy rain
is likely if/when convection affects the terminals. The forecast
should be able to be fine tuned later today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 011118
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For early this morning, will need to watch convection north of the
JLN terminal, but for now think it will remain just northeast of
the airport. Have also kept SGF and JLN dry for this morning. We
should see a break from the thunderstorm activity later this
morning into the afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty today.

Later this evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is
expected, though timing and exact coverage is uncertain enough to
just continue to VCTS mention for now. Strong winds and heavy rain
is likely if/when convection affects the terminals. The forecast
should be able to be fine tuned later today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 011118
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For early this morning, will need to watch convection north of the
JLN terminal, but for now think it will remain just northeast of
the airport. Have also kept SGF and JLN dry for this morning. We
should see a break from the thunderstorm activity later this
morning into the afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty today.

Later this evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is
expected, though timing and exact coverage is uncertain enough to
just continue to VCTS mention for now. Strong winds and heavy rain
is likely if/when convection affects the terminals. The forecast
should be able to be fine tuned later today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 010756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will blossom to the north of the aerodromes in the
coming hours, potentially affecting SGF prior to sunrise. Low
level wind shear will spread over the area, transitioning to gusty
southwest winds during the day Wednesday. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are plausible, with another round possible Wednesday
afternoon and again Wednesday night. Timing is too difficult at
this point, and have handled with PROB30 and VCTS for now.
Overall, VFR conditions will be most common, with MVFR/IFR
possible with thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 010756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will blossom to the north of the aerodromes in the
coming hours, potentially affecting SGF prior to sunrise. Low
level wind shear will spread over the area, transitioning to gusty
southwest winds during the day Wednesday. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are plausible, with another round possible Wednesday
afternoon and again Wednesday night. Timing is too difficult at
this point, and have handled with PROB30 and VCTS for now.
Overall, VFR conditions will be most common, with MVFR/IFR
possible with thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 010756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will blossom to the north of the aerodromes in the
coming hours, potentially affecting SGF prior to sunrise. Low
level wind shear will spread over the area, transitioning to gusty
southwest winds during the day Wednesday. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are plausible, with another round possible Wednesday
afternoon and again Wednesday night. Timing is too difficult at
this point, and have handled with PROB30 and VCTS for now.
Overall, VFR conditions will be most common, with MVFR/IFR
possible with thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 010756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will blossom to the north of the aerodromes in the
coming hours, potentially affecting SGF prior to sunrise. Low
level wind shear will spread over the area, transitioning to gusty
southwest winds during the day Wednesday. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are plausible, with another round possible Wednesday
afternoon and again Wednesday night. Timing is too difficult at
this point, and have handled with PROB30 and VCTS for now.
Overall, VFR conditions will be most common, with MVFR/IFR
possible with thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 010517 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will blossom to the north of the aerodromes in the
coming hours, potentially affecting SGF prior to sunrise. Low
level wind shear will spread over the area, transitioning to gusty
southwest winds during the day Wednesday. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are plausible, with another round possible Wednesday
afternoon and again Wednesday night. Timing is too difficult at
this point, and have handled with PROB30 and VCTS for now.
Overall, VFR conditions will be most common, with MVFR/IFR
possible with thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     069>071-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 010517 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will blossom to the north of the aerodromes in the
coming hours, potentially affecting SGF prior to sunrise. Low
level wind shear will spread over the area, transitioning to gusty
southwest winds during the day Wednesday. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are plausible, with another round possible Wednesday
afternoon and again Wednesday night. Timing is too difficult at
this point, and have handled with PROB30 and VCTS for now.
Overall, VFR conditions will be most common, with MVFR/IFR
possible with thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     069>071-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 010517 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will blossom to the north of the aerodromes in the
coming hours, potentially affecting SGF prior to sunrise. Low
level wind shear will spread over the area, transitioning to gusty
southwest winds during the day Wednesday. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are plausible, with another round possible Wednesday
afternoon and again Wednesday night. Timing is too difficult at
this point, and have handled with PROB30 and VCTS for now.
Overall, VFR conditions will be most common, with MVFR/IFR
possible with thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     069>071-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 010517 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will blossom to the north of the aerodromes in the
coming hours, potentially affecting SGF prior to sunrise. Low
level wind shear will spread over the area, transitioning to gusty
southwest winds during the day Wednesday. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are plausible, with another round possible Wednesday
afternoon and again Wednesday night. Timing is too difficult at
this point, and have handled with PROB30 and VCTS for now.
Overall, VFR conditions will be most common, with MVFR/IFR
possible with thunderstorms/rain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     069>071-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302331 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the forecast
period at all three TAF sites. A complex of thunderstorms will
form over Northwest Missouri and slide southeast overnight
possibly affecting SGF after 09z. JLN and BBG will likely remain
dry. There is some uncertainty in the track of this complex of
storms overnight.

Winds look to remain light and variable throughout this evening
before becoming more southerly overnight. Low level wind shear
looks possible at all three TAF sites overnight. A break will
occur during the morning and early afternoon hours Wednesday
before other thunderstorms develop along a front and enter the
area. Winds tomorrow will become quite gusty out of the southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday
     morning FOR MOZ055>058-069>071-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield








000
FXUS63 KSGF 302024
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Active Weather Pattern Tonight into the 4th of July Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Only VFR ceilings are anticipated at this time. There is a shot at
showers overnight/tomorrow, however, only highlighted VCs at SGF
as odds are slightly better. Surface wind direction will vary from
time to time. Finally, LLWS will increase early tomorrow morning
at all three terminals.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Frye









000
FXUS63 KSGF 302024
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Active Weather Pattern Tonight into the 4th of July Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Only VFR ceilings are anticipated at this time. There is a shot at
showers overnight/tomorrow, however, only highlighted VCs at SGF
as odds are slightly better. Surface wind direction will vary from
time to time. Finally, LLWS will increase early tomorrow morning
at all three terminals.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Frye










000
FXUS63 KSGF 302024
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Active Weather Pattern Tonight into the 4th of July Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Only VFR ceilings are anticipated at this time. There is a shot at
showers overnight/tomorrow, however, only highlighted VCs at SGF
as odds are slightly better. Surface wind direction will vary from
time to time. Finally, LLWS will increase early tomorrow morning
at all three terminals.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Frye









000
FXUS63 KSGF 302024
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Active Weather Pattern Tonight into the 4th of July Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.

The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.

The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Only VFR ceilings are anticipated at this time. There is a shot at
showers overnight/tomorrow, however, only highlighted VCs at SGF
as odds are slightly better. Surface wind direction will vary from
time to time. Finally, LLWS will increase early tomorrow morning
at all three terminals.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Frye










000
FXUS63 KSGF 301726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THROUGH THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN A RATHER UNSETTLED FORECAST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY REGARDING EXACT DETAILS, ESPECIALLY POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY WARM AND DRY, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN MID TO UPPER 80S EAST AND LOW 90S WEST.
DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MID LEVEL
DRY AIR AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING) SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  I
SUPPOSE A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULDN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALONG SOME OF THE MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

THAT WILL CHANGE GOING INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER, AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NEBRASKA/IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  INITIAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH THEN EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS 1.) WHERE EXACTLY
THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK AND 2.) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  CONCERNING THE TRACK, ASSUMING THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WHERE EXPECTED, CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A TRACK MORE OR LESS ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TURN A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF A WARSAW TO
LEBANON TO WEST PLAINS LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
SEEING THIS COMPLEX, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
SOUTHWARD TURN TAKES PLACE.  ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST (TOWARD THE U.S. 65/ HWY 13 CORRIDORS), AS
THE LLJ OVERRIDES ANY OUTFLOW.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE MCS, ESPECIALLY THE ABILITY OF ANY PORTION OF THE MCS
TO BE SURFACE BASED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  IF PORTIONS OF THE
LINE CAN BECOME/REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-SURFACE BASED, THEN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY.  HOWEVER,
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS GENERALLY ELEVATED, IT`S QUESTIONABLE
JUST HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.  FREEZING
HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
HAIL.  THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY BE A SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS ON SHORT NOTICE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HYDRO/FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN.  SOILS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY SATURATED,
WITH SIX HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT OR BELOW 3 INCHES IN MANY
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. STRONGLY
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A
CHANCE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION LATER TODAY AND
HOPEFULLY FINE TUNE THE DETAILS A BIT MORE.  GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, I
SUSPECT A WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HEADING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, AS REMNANT OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR EAST OF
U.S. 65, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE OUTFLOW SETS UP.  IT`S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR RIGHT NOW JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, WHERE POPS ARE LOWEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW 90S.  WHERE CONVECTION IS
MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, HIGHS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 80.  CERTAINLY A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

MORE CONVECTION/ANOTHER MCS THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO BE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT AREAS.  WHEREVER
THIS CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF IT AFFECTS ANY
LOCATIONS ALSO AFFECTED BY TONIGHT`S MCS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE A BIT MORE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY.  DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT, THIS MAY GIVE AT LEAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE "RING OF FIRE".
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FRONT
COULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR RESULT IN DECENT RAIN CHANCES.

THAT FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW INTERACTING
WITH IT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT, THOUGH IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO DODGE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL LOOK TO BE
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Only VFR ceilings are anticipated at this time. There is a shot at
showers overnight/tomorrow, however, only highlighted VCs at SGF
as odds are slightly better. Surface wind direction will vary from
time to time. Finally, LLWS will increase early tomorrow morning
at all three terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...Frye









000
FXUS63 KSGF 301127 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THROUGH THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN A RATHER UNSETTLED FORECAST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY REGARDING EXACT DETAILS, ESPECIALLY POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY WARM AND DRY, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN MID TO UPPER 80S EAST AND LOW 90S WEST.
DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MID LEVEL
DRY AIR AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING) SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  I
SUPPOSE A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULDN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALONG SOME OF THE MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

THAT WILL CHANGE GOING INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER, AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NEBRASKA/IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  INITIAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH THEN EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS 1.) WHERE EXACTLY
THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK AND 2.) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  CONCERNING THE TRACK, ASSUMING THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WHERE EXPECTED, CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A TRACK MORE OR LESS ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TURN A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF A WARSAW TO
LEBANON TO WEST PLAINS LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
SEEING THIS COMPLEX, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
SOUTHWARD TURN TAKES PLACE.  ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST (TOWARD THE U.S. 65/ HWY 13 CORRIDORS), AS
THE LLJ OVERRIDES ANY OUTFLOW.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE MCS, ESPECIALLY THE ABILITY OF ANY PORTION OF THE MCS
TO BE SURFACE BASED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  IF PORTIONS OF THE
LINE CAN BECOME/REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-SURFACE BASED, THEN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY.  HOWEVER,
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS GENERALLY ELEVATED, IT`S QUESTIONABLE
JUST HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.  FREEZING
HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
HAIL.  THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY BE A SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS ON SHORT NOTICE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HYDRO/FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN.  SOILS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY SATURATED,
WITH SIX HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT OR BELOW 3 INCHES IN MANY
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. STRONGLY
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A
CHANCE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION LATER TODAY AND
HOPEFULLY FINE TUNE THE DETAILS A BIT MORE.  GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, I
SUSPECT A WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HEADING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, AS REMNANT OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR EAST OF
U.S. 65, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE OUTFLOW SETS UP.  IT`S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR RIGHT NOW JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, WHERE POPS ARE LOWEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW 90S.  WHERE CONVECTION IS
MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, HIGHS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 80.  CERTAINLY A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

MORE CONVECTION/ANOTHER MCS THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO BE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT AREAS.  WHEREVER
THIS CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF IT AFFECTS ANY
LOCATIONS ALSO AFFECTED BY TONIGHT`S MCS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE A BIT MORE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY.  DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT, THIS MAY GIVE AT LEAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE "RING OF FIRE".
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FRONT
COULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR RESULT IN DECENT RAIN CHANCES.

THAT FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW INTERACTING
WITH IT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT, THOUGH IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO DODGE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL LOOK TO BE
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...BOXELL










000
FXUS63 KSGF 301127 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THROUGH THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN A RATHER UNSETTLED FORECAST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY REGARDING EXACT DETAILS, ESPECIALLY POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY WARM AND DRY, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN MID TO UPPER 80S EAST AND LOW 90S WEST.
DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MID LEVEL
DRY AIR AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING) SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  I
SUPPOSE A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULDN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALONG SOME OF THE MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

THAT WILL CHANGE GOING INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER, AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NEBRASKA/IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  INITIAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH THEN EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS 1.) WHERE EXACTLY
THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK AND 2.) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  CONCERNING THE TRACK, ASSUMING THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WHERE EXPECTED, CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A TRACK MORE OR LESS ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TURN A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF A WARSAW TO
LEBANON TO WEST PLAINS LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
SEEING THIS COMPLEX, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
SOUTHWARD TURN TAKES PLACE.  ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST (TOWARD THE U.S. 65/ HWY 13 CORRIDORS), AS
THE LLJ OVERRIDES ANY OUTFLOW.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE MCS, ESPECIALLY THE ABILITY OF ANY PORTION OF THE MCS
TO BE SURFACE BASED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  IF PORTIONS OF THE
LINE CAN BECOME/REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-SURFACE BASED, THEN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY.  HOWEVER,
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS GENERALLY ELEVATED, IT`S QUESTIONABLE
JUST HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.  FREEZING
HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
HAIL.  THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY BE A SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS ON SHORT NOTICE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HYDRO/FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN.  SOILS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY SATURATED,
WITH SIX HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT OR BELOW 3 INCHES IN MANY
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. STRONGLY
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A
CHANCE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION LATER TODAY AND
HOPEFULLY FINE TUNE THE DETAILS A BIT MORE.  GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, I
SUSPECT A WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HEADING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, AS REMNANT OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR EAST OF
U.S. 65, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE OUTFLOW SETS UP.  IT`S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR RIGHT NOW JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, WHERE POPS ARE LOWEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW 90S.  WHERE CONVECTION IS
MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, HIGHS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 80.  CERTAINLY A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

MORE CONVECTION/ANOTHER MCS THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO BE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT AREAS.  WHEREVER
THIS CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF IT AFFECTS ANY
LOCATIONS ALSO AFFECTED BY TONIGHT`S MCS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE A BIT MORE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY.  DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT, THIS MAY GIVE AT LEAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE "RING OF FIRE".
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FRONT
COULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR RESULT IN DECENT RAIN CHANCES.

THAT FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW INTERACTING
WITH IT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT, THOUGH IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO DODGE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL LOOK TO BE
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...BOXELL









000
FXUS63 KSGF 301127 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THROUGH THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN A RATHER UNSETTLED FORECAST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY REGARDING EXACT DETAILS, ESPECIALLY POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY WARM AND DRY, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN MID TO UPPER 80S EAST AND LOW 90S WEST.
DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MID LEVEL
DRY AIR AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING) SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  I
SUPPOSE A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULDN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALONG SOME OF THE MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

THAT WILL CHANGE GOING INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER, AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NEBRASKA/IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  INITIAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH THEN EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS 1.) WHERE EXACTLY
THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK AND 2.) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  CONCERNING THE TRACK, ASSUMING THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WHERE EXPECTED, CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A TRACK MORE OR LESS ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TURN A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF A WARSAW TO
LEBANON TO WEST PLAINS LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
SEEING THIS COMPLEX, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
SOUTHWARD TURN TAKES PLACE.  ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST (TOWARD THE U.S. 65/ HWY 13 CORRIDORS), AS
THE LLJ OVERRIDES ANY OUTFLOW.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE MCS, ESPECIALLY THE ABILITY OF ANY PORTION OF THE MCS
TO BE SURFACE BASED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  IF PORTIONS OF THE
LINE CAN BECOME/REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-SURFACE BASED, THEN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY.  HOWEVER,
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS GENERALLY ELEVATED, IT`S QUESTIONABLE
JUST HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.  FREEZING
HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
HAIL.  THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY BE A SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS ON SHORT NOTICE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HYDRO/FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN.  SOILS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY SATURATED,
WITH SIX HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT OR BELOW 3 INCHES IN MANY
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. STRONGLY
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A
CHANCE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION LATER TODAY AND
HOPEFULLY FINE TUNE THE DETAILS A BIT MORE.  GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, I
SUSPECT A WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HEADING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, AS REMNANT OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR EAST OF
U.S. 65, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE OUTFLOW SETS UP.  IT`S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR RIGHT NOW JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, WHERE POPS ARE LOWEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW 90S.  WHERE CONVECTION IS
MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, HIGHS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 80.  CERTAINLY A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

MORE CONVECTION/ANOTHER MCS THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO BE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT AREAS.  WHEREVER
THIS CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF IT AFFECTS ANY
LOCATIONS ALSO AFFECTED BY TONIGHT`S MCS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE A BIT MORE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY.  DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT, THIS MAY GIVE AT LEAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE "RING OF FIRE".
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FRONT
COULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR RESULT IN DECENT RAIN CHANCES.

THAT FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW INTERACTING
WITH IT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT, THOUGH IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO DODGE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL LOOK TO BE
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...BOXELL










000
FXUS63 KSGF 301127 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THROUGH THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN A RATHER UNSETTLED FORECAST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY REGARDING EXACT DETAILS, ESPECIALLY POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY WARM AND DRY, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN MID TO UPPER 80S EAST AND LOW 90S WEST.
DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MID LEVEL
DRY AIR AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING) SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  I
SUPPOSE A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULDN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALONG SOME OF THE MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

THAT WILL CHANGE GOING INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER, AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NEBRASKA/IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  INITIAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH THEN EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS 1.) WHERE EXACTLY
THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK AND 2.) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  CONCERNING THE TRACK, ASSUMING THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WHERE EXPECTED, CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A TRACK MORE OR LESS ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TURN A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF A WARSAW TO
LEBANON TO WEST PLAINS LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
SEEING THIS COMPLEX, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
SOUTHWARD TURN TAKES PLACE.  ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST (TOWARD THE U.S. 65/ HWY 13 CORRIDORS), AS
THE LLJ OVERRIDES ANY OUTFLOW.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE MCS, ESPECIALLY THE ABILITY OF ANY PORTION OF THE MCS
TO BE SURFACE BASED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  IF PORTIONS OF THE
LINE CAN BECOME/REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-SURFACE BASED, THEN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY.  HOWEVER,
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS GENERALLY ELEVATED, IT`S QUESTIONABLE
JUST HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.  FREEZING
HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
HAIL.  THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY BE A SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS ON SHORT NOTICE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HYDRO/FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN.  SOILS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY SATURATED,
WITH SIX HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT OR BELOW 3 INCHES IN MANY
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. STRONGLY
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A
CHANCE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION LATER TODAY AND
HOPEFULLY FINE TUNE THE DETAILS A BIT MORE.  GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, I
SUSPECT A WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HEADING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, AS REMNANT OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR EAST OF
U.S. 65, THOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE OUTFLOW SETS UP.  IT`S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR RIGHT NOW JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, WHERE POPS ARE LOWEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW 90S.  WHERE CONVECTION IS
MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, HIGHS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 80.  CERTAINLY A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

MORE CONVECTION/ANOTHER MCS THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
MOST LIKELY TO BE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT AREAS.  WHEREVER
THIS CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF IT AFFECTS ANY
LOCATIONS ALSO AFFECTED BY TONIGHT`S MCS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE A BIT MORE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY.  DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT, THIS MAY GIVE AT LEAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE "RING OF FIRE".
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FRONT
COULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR RESULT IN DECENT RAIN CHANCES.

THAT FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW INTERACTING
WITH IT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT, THOUGH IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO DODGE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL LOOK TO BE
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...BOXELL









000
FXUS63 KSGF 301120
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Northwest flow remains in place across the region this morning, with
a strong ridge centered over the Great Basin, and a large scale
trough over Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes.  Numerous shortwaves
will continue to move across the Nation`s midsection through the
week, resulting in a rather unsettled forecast with low
confidence/predictability regarding exact details, especially PoPs
and temperatures for much of the week.

The daytime hours today look to be generally warm and dry, with
highs topping out in mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west.
Despite warm temperatures and ample low level moisture, mid level
dry air and rising heights aloft (along with a general lack of
forcing) should keep convection at bay through this afternoon.  I
suppose a very isolated thunderstorm couldn`t be entirely ruled out
along some of the more complex terrain of southern Missouri, but
overall chances look to be less than 10 percent.

That will change going into tonight, however, as convection is
expected form along a frontal boundary over Nebraska/Iowa/northern
Missouri and move southeast as a convective complex.  Initial
surface based convective initiation should be late afternoon or
early evening, with upscale growth then expected as the low level
jet strengthens through the late evening into the overnight.  The
biggest forecast challenge at this juncture is 1.) where exactly
this complex will track and 2.) severe weather potential associated
with it.  Concerning the track, assuming that convection develops
where expected, Corfidi vectors suggest a track more or less along
the Missouri River, with the potential for a turn a bit more to the
south over the eastern Ozarks, following the low level theta-e
gradient.  This would suggest that areas along/east of a Warsaw to
Lebanon to West Plains line will have the highest potential of
seeing this complex, though much will depend on where exactly the
southward turn takes place.  Additional elevated convection may
develop back to the west (toward the U.S. 65/ Hwy 13 corridors), as
the LLJ overrides any outflow.

The severe weather potential remains in question at this point.
Much will depend on the quality of the low level airmass along the
track of the MCS, especially the ability of any portion of the MCS
to be surface based during the late night hours.  If portions of the
line can become/remain at least quasi-surface based, then some stronger
wind gusts will certainly be possible, if not likely.  However,
assuming the system remains generally elevated, it`s questionable
just how much wind will be able to make it to the surface.  Freezing
heights should generally be high enough to preclude any significant
hail.  The severe weather potential will certainly be a short term
forecast focus through the day today, with the potential for
significant changes to expectations on short notice.

In addition to the severe weather threat, hydro/flooding will also
be a concern.  Soils across the region are relatively saturated,
with six hour flash flood guidance at or below 3 inches in many
areas across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Strongly
considered a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area, but after
coordination with surrounding offices, will give the day shift a
chance to evaluate the latest forecast information later today and
hopefully fine tune the details a bit more.  Given the chance for
fairly heavy rain not only tonight but over the next few nights, I
suspect a Watch will eventually be needed for central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Heading into the day Wednesday, convection will remain possible over
much of the area, as remnant outflow serves as a focus for
development.  Right now the highest chances look to occur east of
U.S. 65, though much will depend on where outflow sets up.  It`s not
entirely clear right now just how widespread convection will be
Wednesday, and this will have significant impacts on high
temperatures.  Over southeastern Kansas, where PoPs are lowest,
temperatures will likely warm into the low 90s.  Where convection is
most widespread over the eastern Ozarks, highs may have trouble
reaching 80.  Certainly a high bust potential Wednesday.

More convection/another MCS then looks to develop Wednesday night,
possibly right over the forecast area, as the low level jet
interacts with the low level baroclinic zone.  Right now this looks
most likely to be over the eastern Ozarks and south central
Missouri, though confidence is low in the exact areas.  Wherever
this convection does develop, another round of heavy rain and
potential flooding will be possible, especially if it affects any
locations also affected by tonight`s MCS.

Model guidance is then in general agreement in pushing the low level
frontal zone a bit more south and west Thursday.  Depending on how
far south and west the front makes it, this may give at least
central Missouri a little bit of a break from the "ring of fire".
For southern and western portions of the forecast area, the front
could remain close enough for result in decent rain chances.

That front will then remain in the general area through the weekend,
with numerous shortwaves embedded within northwest flow interacting
with it to produce scattered thunderstorms. It doesn`t appear that
the holiday weekend will necessarily be a washout, though it may be
necessary to dodge showers and storms at times.  Temperatures will
be highly dependent on convective coverage, but overall look to be
at or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, as
thunderstorm chances look to remain north and east of the
terminals. Low level wind shear will increase very late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301120
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Northwest flow remains in place across the region this morning, with
a strong ridge centered over the Great Basin, and a large scale
trough over Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes.  Numerous shortwaves
will continue to move across the Nation`s midsection through the
week, resulting in a rather unsettled forecast with low
confidence/predictability regarding exact details, especially PoPs
and temperatures for much of the week.

The daytime hours today look to be generally warm and dry, with
highs topping out in mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west.
Despite warm temperatures and ample low level moisture, mid level
dry air and rising heights aloft (along with a general lack of
forcing) should keep convection at bay through this afternoon.  I
suppose a very isolated thunderstorm couldn`t be entirely ruled out
along some of the more complex terrain of southern Missouri, but
overall chances look to be less than 10 percent.

That will change going into tonight, however, as convection is
expected form along a frontal boundary over Nebraska/Iowa/northern
Missouri and move southeast as a convective complex.  Initial
surface based convective initiation should be late afternoon or
early evening, with upscale growth then expected as the low level
jet strengthens through the late evening into the overnight.  The
biggest forecast challenge at this juncture is 1.) where exactly
this complex will track and 2.) severe weather potential associated
with it.  Concerning the track, assuming that convection develops
where expected, Corfidi vectors suggest a track more or less along
the Missouri River, with the potential for a turn a bit more to the
south over the eastern Ozarks, following the low level theta-e
gradient.  This would suggest that areas along/east of a Warsaw to
Lebanon to West Plains line will have the highest potential of
seeing this complex, though much will depend on where exactly the
southward turn takes place.  Additional elevated convection may
develop back to the west (toward the U.S. 65/ Hwy 13 corridors), as
the LLJ overrides any outflow.

The severe weather potential remains in question at this point.
Much will depend on the quality of the low level airmass along the
track of the MCS, especially the ability of any portion of the MCS
to be surface based during the late night hours.  If portions of the
line can become/remain at least quasi-surface based, then some stronger
wind gusts will certainly be possible, if not likely.  However,
assuming the system remains generally elevated, it`s questionable
just how much wind will be able to make it to the surface.  Freezing
heights should generally be high enough to preclude any significant
hail.  The severe weather potential will certainly be a short term
forecast focus through the day today, with the potential for
significant changes to expectations on short notice.

In addition to the severe weather threat, hydro/flooding will also
be a concern.  Soils across the region are relatively saturated,
with six hour flash flood guidance at or below 3 inches in many
areas across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Strongly
considered a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area, but after
coordination with surrounding offices, will give the day shift a
chance to evaluate the latest forecast information later today and
hopefully fine tune the details a bit more.  Given the chance for
fairly heavy rain not only tonight but over the next few nights, I
suspect a Watch will eventually be needed for central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Heading into the day Wednesday, convection will remain possible over
much of the area, as remnant outflow serves as a focus for
development.  Right now the highest chances look to occur east of
U.S. 65, though much will depend on where outflow sets up.  It`s not
entirely clear right now just how widespread convection will be
Wednesday, and this will have significant impacts on high
temperatures.  Over southeastern Kansas, where PoPs are lowest,
temperatures will likely warm into the low 90s.  Where convection is
most widespread over the eastern Ozarks, highs may have trouble
reaching 80.  Certainly a high bust potential Wednesday.

More convection/another MCS then looks to develop Wednesday night,
possibly right over the forecast area, as the low level jet
interacts with the low level baroclinic zone.  Right now this looks
most likely to be over the eastern Ozarks and south central
Missouri, though confidence is low in the exact areas.  Wherever
this convection does develop, another round of heavy rain and
potential flooding will be possible, especially if it affects any
locations also affected by tonight`s MCS.

Model guidance is then in general agreement in pushing the low level
frontal zone a bit more south and west Thursday.  Depending on how
far south and west the front makes it, this may give at least
central Missouri a little bit of a break from the "ring of fire".
For southern and western portions of the forecast area, the front
could remain close enough for result in decent rain chances.

That front will then remain in the general area through the weekend,
with numerous shortwaves embedded within northwest flow interacting
with it to produce scattered thunderstorms. It doesn`t appear that
the holiday weekend will necessarily be a washout, though it may be
necessary to dodge showers and storms at times.  Temperatures will
be highly dependent on convective coverage, but overall look to be
at or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, as
thunderstorm chances look to remain north and east of the
terminals. Low level wind shear will increase very late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301120
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Northwest flow remains in place across the region this morning, with
a strong ridge centered over the Great Basin, and a large scale
trough over Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes.  Numerous shortwaves
will continue to move across the Nation`s midsection through the
week, resulting in a rather unsettled forecast with low
confidence/predictability regarding exact details, especially PoPs
and temperatures for much of the week.

The daytime hours today look to be generally warm and dry, with
highs topping out in mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west.
Despite warm temperatures and ample low level moisture, mid level
dry air and rising heights aloft (along with a general lack of
forcing) should keep convection at bay through this afternoon.  I
suppose a very isolated thunderstorm couldn`t be entirely ruled out
along some of the more complex terrain of southern Missouri, but
overall chances look to be less than 10 percent.

That will change going into tonight, however, as convection is
expected form along a frontal boundary over Nebraska/Iowa/northern
Missouri and move southeast as a convective complex.  Initial
surface based convective initiation should be late afternoon or
early evening, with upscale growth then expected as the low level
jet strengthens through the late evening into the overnight.  The
biggest forecast challenge at this juncture is 1.) where exactly
this complex will track and 2.) severe weather potential associated
with it.  Concerning the track, assuming that convection develops
where expected, Corfidi vectors suggest a track more or less along
the Missouri River, with the potential for a turn a bit more to the
south over the eastern Ozarks, following the low level theta-e
gradient.  This would suggest that areas along/east of a Warsaw to
Lebanon to West Plains line will have the highest potential of
seeing this complex, though much will depend on where exactly the
southward turn takes place.  Additional elevated convection may
develop back to the west (toward the U.S. 65/ Hwy 13 corridors), as
the LLJ overrides any outflow.

The severe weather potential remains in question at this point.
Much will depend on the quality of the low level airmass along the
track of the MCS, especially the ability of any portion of the MCS
to be surface based during the late night hours.  If portions of the
line can become/remain at least quasi-surface based, then some stronger
wind gusts will certainly be possible, if not likely.  However,
assuming the system remains generally elevated, it`s questionable
just how much wind will be able to make it to the surface.  Freezing
heights should generally be high enough to preclude any significant
hail.  The severe weather potential will certainly be a short term
forecast focus through the day today, with the potential for
significant changes to expectations on short notice.

In addition to the severe weather threat, hydro/flooding will also
be a concern.  Soils across the region are relatively saturated,
with six hour flash flood guidance at or below 3 inches in many
areas across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Strongly
considered a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area, but after
coordination with surrounding offices, will give the day shift a
chance to evaluate the latest forecast information later today and
hopefully fine tune the details a bit more.  Given the chance for
fairly heavy rain not only tonight but over the next few nights, I
suspect a Watch will eventually be needed for central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Heading into the day Wednesday, convection will remain possible over
much of the area, as remnant outflow serves as a focus for
development.  Right now the highest chances look to occur east of
U.S. 65, though much will depend on where outflow sets up.  It`s not
entirely clear right now just how widespread convection will be
Wednesday, and this will have significant impacts on high
temperatures.  Over southeastern Kansas, where PoPs are lowest,
temperatures will likely warm into the low 90s.  Where convection is
most widespread over the eastern Ozarks, highs may have trouble
reaching 80.  Certainly a high bust potential Wednesday.

More convection/another MCS then looks to develop Wednesday night,
possibly right over the forecast area, as the low level jet
interacts with the low level baroclinic zone.  Right now this looks
most likely to be over the eastern Ozarks and south central
Missouri, though confidence is low in the exact areas.  Wherever
this convection does develop, another round of heavy rain and
potential flooding will be possible, especially if it affects any
locations also affected by tonight`s MCS.

Model guidance is then in general agreement in pushing the low level
frontal zone a bit more south and west Thursday.  Depending on how
far south and west the front makes it, this may give at least
central Missouri a little bit of a break from the "ring of fire".
For southern and western portions of the forecast area, the front
could remain close enough for result in decent rain chances.

That front will then remain in the general area through the weekend,
with numerous shortwaves embedded within northwest flow interacting
with it to produce scattered thunderstorms. It doesn`t appear that
the holiday weekend will necessarily be a washout, though it may be
necessary to dodge showers and storms at times.  Temperatures will
be highly dependent on convective coverage, but overall look to be
at or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, as
thunderstorm chances look to remain north and east of the
terminals. Low level wind shear will increase very late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301120
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Northwest flow remains in place across the region this morning, with
a strong ridge centered over the Great Basin, and a large scale
trough over Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes.  Numerous shortwaves
will continue to move across the Nation`s midsection through the
week, resulting in a rather unsettled forecast with low
confidence/predictability regarding exact details, especially PoPs
and temperatures for much of the week.

The daytime hours today look to be generally warm and dry, with
highs topping out in mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west.
Despite warm temperatures and ample low level moisture, mid level
dry air and rising heights aloft (along with a general lack of
forcing) should keep convection at bay through this afternoon.  I
suppose a very isolated thunderstorm couldn`t be entirely ruled out
along some of the more complex terrain of southern Missouri, but
overall chances look to be less than 10 percent.

That will change going into tonight, however, as convection is
expected form along a frontal boundary over Nebraska/Iowa/northern
Missouri and move southeast as a convective complex.  Initial
surface based convective initiation should be late afternoon or
early evening, with upscale growth then expected as the low level
jet strengthens through the late evening into the overnight.  The
biggest forecast challenge at this juncture is 1.) where exactly
this complex will track and 2.) severe weather potential associated
with it.  Concerning the track, assuming that convection develops
where expected, Corfidi vectors suggest a track more or less along
the Missouri River, with the potential for a turn a bit more to the
south over the eastern Ozarks, following the low level theta-e
gradient.  This would suggest that areas along/east of a Warsaw to
Lebanon to West Plains line will have the highest potential of
seeing this complex, though much will depend on where exactly the
southward turn takes place.  Additional elevated convection may
develop back to the west (toward the U.S. 65/ Hwy 13 corridors), as
the LLJ overrides any outflow.

The severe weather potential remains in question at this point.
Much will depend on the quality of the low level airmass along the
track of the MCS, especially the ability of any portion of the MCS
to be surface based during the late night hours.  If portions of the
line can become/remain at least quasi-surface based, then some stronger
wind gusts will certainly be possible, if not likely.  However,
assuming the system remains generally elevated, it`s questionable
just how much wind will be able to make it to the surface.  Freezing
heights should generally be high enough to preclude any significant
hail.  The severe weather potential will certainly be a short term
forecast focus through the day today, with the potential for
significant changes to expectations on short notice.

In addition to the severe weather threat, hydro/flooding will also
be a concern.  Soils across the region are relatively saturated,
with six hour flash flood guidance at or below 3 inches in many
areas across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Strongly
considered a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area, but after
coordination with surrounding offices, will give the day shift a
chance to evaluate the latest forecast information later today and
hopefully fine tune the details a bit more.  Given the chance for
fairly heavy rain not only tonight but over the next few nights, I
suspect a Watch will eventually be needed for central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Heading into the day Wednesday, convection will remain possible over
much of the area, as remnant outflow serves as a focus for
development.  Right now the highest chances look to occur east of
U.S. 65, though much will depend on where outflow sets up.  It`s not
entirely clear right now just how widespread convection will be
Wednesday, and this will have significant impacts on high
temperatures.  Over southeastern Kansas, where PoPs are lowest,
temperatures will likely warm into the low 90s.  Where convection is
most widespread over the eastern Ozarks, highs may have trouble
reaching 80.  Certainly a high bust potential Wednesday.

More convection/another MCS then looks to develop Wednesday night,
possibly right over the forecast area, as the low level jet
interacts with the low level baroclinic zone.  Right now this looks
most likely to be over the eastern Ozarks and south central
Missouri, though confidence is low in the exact areas.  Wherever
this convection does develop, another round of heavy rain and
potential flooding will be possible, especially if it affects any
locations also affected by tonight`s MCS.

Model guidance is then in general agreement in pushing the low level
frontal zone a bit more south and west Thursday.  Depending on how
far south and west the front makes it, this may give at least
central Missouri a little bit of a break from the "ring of fire".
For southern and western portions of the forecast area, the front
could remain close enough for result in decent rain chances.

That front will then remain in the general area through the weekend,
with numerous shortwaves embedded within northwest flow interacting
with it to produce scattered thunderstorms. It doesn`t appear that
the holiday weekend will necessarily be a washout, though it may be
necessary to dodge showers and storms at times.  Temperatures will
be highly dependent on convective coverage, but overall look to be
at or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, as
thunderstorm chances look to remain north and east of the
terminals. Low level wind shear will increase very late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 300757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Northwest flow remains in place across the region this morning, with
a strong ridge centered over the Great Basin, and a large scale
trough over Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes.  Numerous shortwaves
will continue to move across the Nation`s midsection through the
week, resulting in a rather unsettled forecast with low
confidence/predictability regarding exact details, especially PoPs
and temperatures for much of the week.

The daytime hours today look to be generally warm and dry, with
highs topping out in mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west.
Despite warm temperatures and ample low level moisture, mid level
dry air and rising heights aloft (along with a general lack of
forcing) should keep convection at bay through this afternoon.  I
suppose a very isolated thunderstorm couldn`t be entirely ruled out
along some of the more complex terrain of southern Missouri, but
overall chances look to be less than 10 percent.

That will change going into tonight, however, as convection is
expected form along a frontal boundary over Nebraska/Iowa/northern
Missouri and move southeast as a convective complex.  Initial
surface based convective initiation should be late afternoon or
early evening, with upscale growth then expected as the low level
jet strengthens through the late evening into the overnight.  The
biggest forecast challenge at this juncture is 1.) where exactly
this complex will track and 2.) severe weather potential associated
with it.  Concerning the track, assuming that convection develops
where expected, Corfidi vectors suggest a track more or less along
the Missouri River, with the potential for a turn a bit more to the
south over the eastern Ozarks, following the low level theta-e
gradient.  This would suggest that areas along/east of a Warsaw to
Lebanon to West Plains line will have the highest potential of
seeing this complex, though much will depend on where exactly the
southward turn takes place.  Additional elevated convection may
develop back to the west (toward the U.S. 65/ Hwy 13 corridors), as
the LLJ overrides any outflow.

The severe weather potential remains in question at this point.
Much will depend on the quality of the low level airmass along the
track of the MCS, especially the ability of any portion of the MCS
to be surface based during the late night hours.  If portions of the
line can become/remain at least quasi-surface based, then some stronger
wind gusts will certainly be possible, if not likely.  However,
assuming the system remains generally elevated, it`s questionable
just how much wind will be able to make it to the surface.  Freezing
heights should generally be high enough to preclude any significant
hail.  The severe weather potential will certainly be a short term
forecast focus through the day today, with the potential for
significant changes to expectations on short notice.

In addition to the severe weather threat, hydro/flooding will also
be a concern.  Soils across the region are relatively saturated,
with six hour flash flood guidance at or below 3 inches in many
areas across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Strongly
considered a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area, but after
coordination with surrounding offices, will give the day shift a
chance to evaluate the latest forecast information later today and
hopefully fine tune the details a bit more.  Given the chance for
fairly heavy rain not only tonight but over the next few nights, I
suspect a Watch will eventually be needed for central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Heading into the day Wednesday, convection will remain possible over
much of the area, as remnant outflow serves as a focus for
development.  Right now the highest chances look to occur east of
U.S. 65, though much will depend on where outflow sets up.  It`s not
entirely clear right now just how widespread convection will be
Wednesday, and this will have significant impacts on high
temperatures.  Over southeastern Kansas, where PoPs are lowest,
temperatures will likely warm into the low 90s.  Where convection is
most widespread over the eastern Ozarks, highs may have trouble
reaching 80.  Certainly a high bust potential Wednesday.

More convection/another MCS then looks to develop Wednesday night,
possibly right over the forecast area, as the low level jet
interacts with the low level baroclinic zone.  Right now this looks
most likely to be over the eastern Ozarks and south central
Missouri, though confidence is low in the exact areas.  Wherever
this convection does develop, another round of heavy rain and
potential flooding will be possible, especially if it affects any
locations also affected by tonight`s MCS.

Model guidance is then in general agreement in pushing the low level
frontal zone a bit more south and west Thursday.  Depending on how
far south and west the front makes it, this may give at least
central Missouri a little bit of a break from the "ring of fire".
For southern and western portions of the forecast area, the front
could remain close enough for result in decent rain chances.

That front will then remain in the general area through the weekend,
with numerous shortwaves embedded within northwest flow interacting
with it to produce scattered thunderstorms. It doesn`t appear that
the holiday weekend will necessarily be a washout, though it may be
necessary to dodge showers and storms at times.  Temperatures will
be highly dependent on convective coverage, but overall look to be
at or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds
are expected tonight and then again Tuesday evening. During the
day Tuesday expected westerly winds.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 300757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Northwest flow remains in place across the region this morning, with
a strong ridge centered over the Great Basin, and a large scale
trough over Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes.  Numerous shortwaves
will continue to move across the Nation`s midsection through the
week, resulting in a rather unsettled forecast with low
confidence/predictability regarding exact details, especially PoPs
and temperatures for much of the week.

The daytime hours today look to be generally warm and dry, with
highs topping out in mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west.
Despite warm temperatures and ample low level moisture, mid level
dry air and rising heights aloft (along with a general lack of
forcing) should keep convection at bay through this afternoon.  I
suppose a very isolated thunderstorm couldn`t be entirely ruled out
along some of the more complex terrain of southern Missouri, but
overall chances look to be less than 10 percent.

That will change going into tonight, however, as convection is
expected form along a frontal boundary over Nebraska/Iowa/northern
Missouri and move southeast as a convective complex.  Initial
surface based convective initiation should be late afternoon or
early evening, with upscale growth then expected as the low level
jet strengthens through the late evening into the overnight.  The
biggest forecast challenge at this juncture is 1.) where exactly
this complex will track and 2.) severe weather potential associated
with it.  Concerning the track, assuming that convection develops
where expected, Corfidi vectors suggest a track more or less along
the Missouri River, with the potential for a turn a bit more to the
south over the eastern Ozarks, following the low level theta-e
gradient.  This would suggest that areas along/east of a Warsaw to
Lebanon to West Plains line will have the highest potential of
seeing this complex, though much will depend on where exactly the
southward turn takes place.  Additional elevated convection may
develop back to the west (toward the U.S. 65/ Hwy 13 corridors), as
the LLJ overrides any outflow.

The severe weather potential remains in question at this point.
Much will depend on the quality of the low level airmass along the
track of the MCS, especially the ability of any portion of the MCS
to be surface based during the late night hours.  If portions of the
line can become/remain at least quasi-surface based, then some stronger
wind gusts will certainly be possible, if not likely.  However,
assuming the system remains generally elevated, it`s questionable
just how much wind will be able to make it to the surface.  Freezing
heights should generally be high enough to preclude any significant
hail.  The severe weather potential will certainly be a short term
forecast focus through the day today, with the potential for
significant changes to expectations on short notice.

In addition to the severe weather threat, hydro/flooding will also
be a concern.  Soils across the region are relatively saturated,
with six hour flash flood guidance at or below 3 inches in many
areas across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Strongly
considered a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area, but after
coordination with surrounding offices, will give the day shift a
chance to evaluate the latest forecast information later today and
hopefully fine tune the details a bit more.  Given the chance for
fairly heavy rain not only tonight but over the next few nights, I
suspect a Watch will eventually be needed for central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Heading into the day Wednesday, convection will remain possible over
much of the area, as remnant outflow serves as a focus for
development.  Right now the highest chances look to occur east of
U.S. 65, though much will depend on where outflow sets up.  It`s not
entirely clear right now just how widespread convection will be
Wednesday, and this will have significant impacts on high
temperatures.  Over southeastern Kansas, where PoPs are lowest,
temperatures will likely warm into the low 90s.  Where convection is
most widespread over the eastern Ozarks, highs may have trouble
reaching 80.  Certainly a high bust potential Wednesday.

More convection/another MCS then looks to develop Wednesday night,
possibly right over the forecast area, as the low level jet
interacts with the low level baroclinic zone.  Right now this looks
most likely to be over the eastern Ozarks and south central
Missouri, though confidence is low in the exact areas.  Wherever
this convection does develop, another round of heavy rain and
potential flooding will be possible, especially if it affects any
locations also affected by tonight`s MCS.

Model guidance is then in general agreement in pushing the low level
frontal zone a bit more south and west Thursday.  Depending on how
far south and west the front makes it, this may give at least
central Missouri a little bit of a break from the "ring of fire".
For southern and western portions of the forecast area, the front
could remain close enough for result in decent rain chances.

That front will then remain in the general area through the weekend,
with numerous shortwaves embedded within northwest flow interacting
with it to produce scattered thunderstorms. It doesn`t appear that
the holiday weekend will necessarily be a washout, though it may be
necessary to dodge showers and storms at times.  Temperatures will
be highly dependent on convective coverage, but overall look to be
at or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds
are expected tonight and then again Tuesday evening. During the
day Tuesday expected westerly winds.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300503 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds
are expected tonight and then again Tuesday evening. During the
day Tuesday expected westerly winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300503 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds
are expected tonight and then again Tuesday evening. During the
day Tuesday expected westerly winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300503 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds
are expected tonight and then again Tuesday evening. During the
day Tuesday expected westerly winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300503 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds
are expected tonight and then again Tuesday evening. During the
day Tuesday expected westerly winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Gagan







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