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000
FXUS63 KSGF 312304
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Left over isolated convection will remain possible early this
evening across far south-central Missouri as a low level frontal
boundary (925-850 mb layer) clears the region. Otherwise, dry
weather is expected tonight.

We will have to watch for some fog potential across southern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas, although confidence in
fog development remains low. There are two potential scenarios
that would increase confidence. The first would be more in the way
of widespread rainfall across south-central Missouri into early
this evening. The second would be that low level frontal boundary
stalling further northeast from eastern Kansas into northern
Arkansas. Right now, the best prospects for fog appear as if they
will remain back towards central Kansas and down closer to I-40.

With drier air advecting into the region from the north, lows
tonight should be able to drop into the middle to upper 40s across
central Missouri. Dew points will be higher across far southwest
Missouri where lows will be in the lower to middle 50s.

Broad southerly flow continues across the region on Wednesday
advecting low level moisture northward. Frontal boundary strengthens
across the plains and extends from southwest Kansas into southern
Minnesota by 00Z. This front will be the focus for convection during
the day and evening hours. Cannot rule out a few showers or
thunderstorms in the warm advection pattern over the forecast area.
However, deep layer shear looks rather weak and tied closer to the
front over Kansas. As pressure gradient tightens southerly winds
with some gusts to 30 mph will be possible, especially in areas west
of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Frontal boundary will slide southeast Wednesday night and Thursday
and affect the forecast area mainly Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night. Precipitation probabilities will increase with time with the
best chances late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Plenty of
deep layer shear with eroding cap as front approaches. However,
model soundings indicate uni-directional low level shear in vicinity
of front. Linear forcing along front combined with increasing
instabilities and mid level lapse rates will lead to mainly a hail
and wind threat for the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.

Front will slowly sag southward across the area Thursday night. GFS
showing a stronger surface wave riding up along the front, while NAM
is slightly more progressive. If GFS verifies would likely see
severe weather threat evolve into a heavy rain threat late Thursday
evening and overnight and possibly into the early morning hours of
Friday. Will have to watch this closely.

High pressure then drops across the area Friday night into Saturday
for quiet but cool weather. Will have to watch for the potential for
some frost Saturday morning as the high is expected to be centered
over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Zonal flow then
re-establishes itself across the mid section of the conus Saturday
nigh into Sunday as high drops into the southeast United States.
Return flow establishes itself Sunday and especially Sunday night
through Tuesday. With increasing low level moisture and developing
surface low over Kansas medium range models pointing to more active
weather from Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Most of the convection has shifted southeast of the cwa this
evening, but all of it should remain east and south of the
forecast terminals. May see some stratus start to move back into
the area late tonight into Wednesday as southeast to south flow
redevelops in the lower levels and we start to get better Gulf
moisture into the area. Do have BBG dropping into MVFR conditions
late tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 312017
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
317 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Left over isolated convection will remain possible early this
evening across far south-central Missouri as a low level frontal
boundary (925-850 mb layer) clears the region. Otherwise, dry
weather is expected tonight.

We will have to watch for some fog potential across southern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas, although confidence in
fog development remains low. There are two potential scenarios
that would increase confidence. The first would be more in the way
of widespread rainfall across south-central Missouri into early
this evening. The second would be that low level frontal boundary
stalling further northeast from eastern Kansas into northern
Arkansas. Right now, the best prospects for fog appear as if they
will remain back towards central Kansas and down closer to I-40.

With drier air advecting into the region from the north, lows
tonight should be able to drop into the middle to upper 40s across
central Missouri. Dew points will be higher across far southwest
Missouri where lows will be in the lower to middle 50s.

Broad southerly flow continues across the region on Wednesday
advecting low level moisture northward. Frontal boundary strengthens
across the plains and extends from southwest Kansas into southern
Minnesota by 00Z. This front will be the focus for convection during
the day and evening hours. Cannot rule out a few showers or
thunderstorms in the warm advection pattern over the forecast area.
However, deep layer shear looks rather weak and tied closer to the
front over Kansas. As pressure gradient tightens southerly winds
with some gusts to 30 mph will be possible, especially in areas west
of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Frontal boundary will slide southeast Wednesday night and Thursday
and affect the forecast area mainly Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night. Precipitation probabilities will increase with time with the
best chances late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Plenty of
deep layer shear with eroding cap as front approaches. However,
model soundings indicate uni-directional low level shear in vicinity
of front. Linear forcing along front combined with increasing
instabilities and mid level lapse rates will lead to mainly a hail
and wind threat for the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.

Front will slowly sag southward across the area Thursday night. GFS
showing a stronger surface wave riding up along the front, while NAM
is slightly more progressive. If GFS verifies would likely see
severe weather threat evolve into a heavy rain threat late Thursday
evening and overnight and possibly into the early morning hours of
Friday. Will have to watch this closely.

High pressure then drops across the area Friday night into Saturday
for quiet but cool weather. Will have to watch for the potential for
some frost Saturday morning as the high is expected to be centered
over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Zonal flow then
re-establishes itself across the mid section of the conus Saturday
nigh into Sunday as high drops into the southeast United States.
Return flow establishes itself Sunday and especially Sunday night
through Tuesday. With increasing low level moisture and developing
surface low over Kansas medium range models pointing to more active
weather from Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri
this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central
Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with
dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating
returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight
or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri.
The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin
and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and
will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 312017
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
317 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Left over isolated convection will remain possible early this
evening across far south-central Missouri as a low level frontal
boundary (925-850 mb layer) clears the region. Otherwise, dry
weather is expected tonight.

We will have to watch for some fog potential across southern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas, although confidence in
fog development remains low. There are two potential scenarios
that would increase confidence. The first would be more in the way
of widespread rainfall across south-central Missouri into early
this evening. The second would be that low level frontal boundary
stalling further northeast from eastern Kansas into northern
Arkansas. Right now, the best prospects for fog appear as if they
will remain back towards central Kansas and down closer to I-40.

With drier air advecting into the region from the north, lows
tonight should be able to drop into the middle to upper 40s across
central Missouri. Dew points will be higher across far southwest
Missouri where lows will be in the lower to middle 50s.

Broad southerly flow continues across the region on Wednesday
advecting low level moisture northward. Frontal boundary strengthens
across the plains and extends from southwest Kansas into southern
Minnesota by 00Z. This front will be the focus for convection during
the day and evening hours. Cannot rule out a few showers or
thunderstorms in the warm advection pattern over the forecast area.
However, deep layer shear looks rather weak and tied closer to the
front over Kansas. As pressure gradient tightens southerly winds
with some gusts to 30 mph will be possible, especially in areas west
of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Frontal boundary will slide southeast Wednesday night and Thursday
and affect the forecast area mainly Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night. Precipitation probabilities will increase with time with the
best chances late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Plenty of
deep layer shear with eroding cap as front approaches. However,
model soundings indicate uni-directional low level shear in vicinity
of front. Linear forcing along front combined with increasing
instabilities and mid level lapse rates will lead to mainly a hail
and wind threat for the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.

Front will slowly sag southward across the area Thursday night. GFS
showing a stronger surface wave riding up along the front, while NAM
is slightly more progressive. If GFS verifies would likely see
severe weather threat evolve into a heavy rain threat late Thursday
evening and overnight and possibly into the early morning hours of
Friday. Will have to watch this closely.

High pressure then drops across the area Friday night into Saturday
for quiet but cool weather. Will have to watch for the potential for
some frost Saturday morning as the high is expected to be centered
over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Zonal flow then
re-establishes itself across the mid section of the conus Saturday
nigh into Sunday as high drops into the southeast United States.
Return flow establishes itself Sunday and especially Sunday night
through Tuesday. With increasing low level moisture and developing
surface low over Kansas medium range models pointing to more active
weather from Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri
this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central
Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with
dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating
returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight
or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri.
The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin
and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and
will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 311744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri
this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central
Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with
dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating
returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight
or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri.
The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin
and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and
will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 311744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri
this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central
Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with
dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating
returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight
or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri.
The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin
and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and
will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri
this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central
Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with
dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating
returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight
or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri.
The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin
and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and
will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri
this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central
Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with
dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating
returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight
or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri.
The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin
and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and
will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 311631
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update for Thunderstorm Potential this Afternoon...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311631
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update for Thunderstorm Potential this Afternoon...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 311109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 311109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 311109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 311109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 310823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Warm Today and Wednesday then Storms on Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 310823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Warm Today and Wednesday then Storms on Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 302012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede











000
FXUS63 KSGF 302012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede












000
FXUS63 KSGF 302012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede











000
FXUS63 KSGF 302012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede












000
FXUS63 KSGF 301729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the TAF
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the TAF
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the TAF
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the TAF
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede









000
FXUS63 KSGF 292016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede









000
FXUS63 KSGF 291724
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291724
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291724
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291724
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291201
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight a front drops southward through the area.

This front will bring an increase in clouds in the mid levels. Any
showers will be off to the northeast of the terminal sites.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface will veer around to the
west and northwest this afternoon. Low level wind shear will
impact the area this morning.&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291201
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight a front drops southward through the area.

This front will bring an increase in clouds in the mid levels. Any
showers will be off to the northeast of the terminal sites.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface will veer around to the
west and northwest this afternoon. Low level wind shear will
impact the area this morning.&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291201
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight a front drops southward through the area.

This front will bring an increase in clouds in the mid levels. Any
showers will be off to the northeast of the terminal sites.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface will veer around to the
west and northwest this afternoon. Low level wind shear will
impact the area this morning.&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291201
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight a front drops southward through the area.

This front will bring an increase in clouds in the mid levels. Any
showers will be off to the northeast of the terminal sites.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface will veer around to the
west and northwest this afternoon. Low level wind shear will
impact the area this morning.&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290809
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Milder and Breezy Today...Much Warmer Weather Returns Early
This Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Next shortwave was over the northern Plains and we are starting to
get some steady southeast wind across the area this evening. This
is especially true at SGF where the favored wind direction for the
funnel effect is causing some gustiness at the SGF terminal location.

Clouds will not begin to increase until near daybreak with this
shortwave and still only expecting mid/high level clouds with this
wave. Wind will become northwest late in the day as the surface
front moves through.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290809
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Milder and Breezy Today...Much Warmer Weather Returns Early
This Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Next shortwave was over the northern Plains and we are starting to
get some steady southeast wind across the area this evening. This
is especially true at SGF where the favored wind direction for the
funnel effect is causing some gustiness at the SGF terminal location.

Clouds will not begin to increase until near daybreak with this
shortwave and still only expecting mid/high level clouds with this
wave. Wind will become northwest late in the day as the surface
front moves through.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290809
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Milder and Breezy Today...Much Warmer Weather Returns Early
This Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Clear skies and breezy southeast winds are being observed this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. A weak frontal trough is
currently located across the central Plains up near central
Nebraska this morning and moving southeastward. This feature will
bring more clouds back in later today and a wind shift. Moisture
will be very limited but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two
this afternoon with the best potential for that across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures will be more
seasonable today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. It will
start off breezy today but as the surface trough
approaches...winds will relax somewhat closer to the wind shift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The overall weather pattern will shift early to middle of this
week with some upper level ridging trying to move in from the
west. Southerly winds at the surface will help boost temperatures
up to above average by the middle of the week. High temperatures
will be approaching the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There may be weak upper level feature that moves on by
the area on Tuesday to bring an isolated shower. The better
chances for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from
late Wednesday through Friday as a slow moving front moves into
the area. Cooler but seasonable temperatures return behind the
front by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Next shortwave was over the northern Plains and we are starting to
get some steady southeast wind across the area this evening. This
is especially true at SGF where the favored wind direction for the
funnel effect is causing some gustiness at the SGF terminal location.

Clouds will not begin to increase until near daybreak with this
shortwave and still only expecting mid/high level clouds with this
wave. Wind will become northwest late in the day as the surface
front moves through.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290436
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Some clouds remain, but the snow/sleet/rain from a quick moving
upper level disturbance has passed south of the area. Clouds should
try to clear this afternoon and early evening. However warm air
advection and a ne advecting elevated mixed layer ahead of an
approaching sfc trough may trap some moisture in the low levels,
particularly over the western cwfa. With the exception of south
central MO (south of the higher terrain...Oregon County area)
winds should stay high enough to limit fog/stratus build down.

The approaching sfc trough/weak cold front supported by shortwave
moving from the Plains into the Midwest will pass through the
region in the afternoon/early evening. Much warmer temperatures
will occur ahead of the front. A few light showers/sprinkles will
be possible, but with a fairly dry atmosphere expected to be in
place, expect nothing significant.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

We will continue the transition to warmer weather early in the
week with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday as an upper level
ridge moves into the central CONUS. A couple of weak frontal
boundaries try to push into the area late Tuesday and again
Thursday, but wash out over area or stall near or over us. Rain
chances will increases Wednesday into Thursday.

There is fairly good model to model agreement on the timing of a
more substantial front passing through the area Friday/Day 6, as
the overall pattern starts to amplify again with a trough moving
into the western CONUS then moving into the Plains. Have increased
shower/tstm chances during this time with dry and cooler weather
for Saturday. Imagine we will see timing changes in the fcst
between now and then given the faster zonal pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Next shortwave was over the northern Plains and we are starting to
get some steady southeast wind across the area this evening. This
is especially true at SGF where the favored wind direction for the
funnel effect is causing some gustiness at the SGF terminal location.

Clouds will not begin to increase until near daybreak with this
shortwave and still only expecting mid/high level clouds with this
wave. Wind will become northwest late in the day as the surface
front moves through.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290436
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Some clouds remain, but the snow/sleet/rain from a quick moving
upper level disturbance has passed south of the area. Clouds should
try to clear this afternoon and early evening. However warm air
advection and a ne advecting elevated mixed layer ahead of an
approaching sfc trough may trap some moisture in the low levels,
particularly over the western cwfa. With the exception of south
central MO (south of the higher terrain...Oregon County area)
winds should stay high enough to limit fog/stratus build down.

The approaching sfc trough/weak cold front supported by shortwave
moving from the Plains into the Midwest will pass through the
region in the afternoon/early evening. Much warmer temperatures
will occur ahead of the front. A few light showers/sprinkles will
be possible, but with a fairly dry atmosphere expected to be in
place, expect nothing significant.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

We will continue the transition to warmer weather early in the
week with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday as an upper level
ridge moves into the central CONUS. A couple of weak frontal
boundaries try to push into the area late Tuesday and again
Thursday, but wash out over area or stall near or over us. Rain
chances will increases Wednesday into Thursday.

There is fairly good model to model agreement on the timing of a
more substantial front passing through the area Friday/Day 6, as
the overall pattern starts to amplify again with a trough moving
into the western CONUS then moving into the Plains. Have increased
shower/tstm chances during this time with dry and cooler weather
for Saturday. Imagine we will see timing changes in the fcst
between now and then given the faster zonal pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Next shortwave was over the northern Plains and we are starting to
get some steady southeast wind across the area this evening. This
is especially true at SGF where the favored wind direction for the
funnel effect is causing some gustiness at the SGF terminal location.

Clouds will not begin to increase until near daybreak with this
shortwave and still only expecting mid/high level clouds with this
wave. Wind will become northwest late in the day as the surface
front moves through.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290436
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Some clouds remain, but the snow/sleet/rain from a quick moving
upper level disturbance has passed south of the area. Clouds should
try to clear this afternoon and early evening. However warm air
advection and a ne advecting elevated mixed layer ahead of an
approaching sfc trough may trap some moisture in the low levels,
particularly over the western cwfa. With the exception of south
central MO (south of the higher terrain...Oregon County area)
winds should stay high enough to limit fog/stratus build down.

The approaching sfc trough/weak cold front supported by shortwave
moving from the Plains into the Midwest will pass through the
region in the afternoon/early evening. Much warmer temperatures
will occur ahead of the front. A few light showers/sprinkles will
be possible, but with a fairly dry atmosphere expected to be in
place, expect nothing significant.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

We will continue the transition to warmer weather early in the
week with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday as an upper level
ridge moves into the central CONUS. A couple of weak frontal
boundaries try to push into the area late Tuesday and again
Thursday, but wash out over area or stall near or over us. Rain
chances will increases Wednesday into Thursday.

There is fairly good model to model agreement on the timing of a
more substantial front passing through the area Friday/Day 6, as
the overall pattern starts to amplify again with a trough moving
into the western CONUS then moving into the Plains. Have increased
shower/tstm chances during this time with dry and cooler weather
for Saturday. Imagine we will see timing changes in the fcst
between now and then given the faster zonal pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Next shortwave was over the northern Plains and we are starting to
get some steady southeast wind across the area this evening. This
is especially true at SGF where the favored wind direction for the
funnel effect is causing some gustiness at the SGF terminal location.

Clouds will not begin to increase until near daybreak with this
shortwave and still only expecting mid/high level clouds with this
wave. Wind will become northwest late in the day as the surface
front moves through.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg








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