Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KSGF 252246
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

An upper level ridge that is currently over the plains will
continue to slide east and over the region on Sunday. Southerly
winds will increase and be breezy on both Sunday and Monday. Wind
gust up to 30 mph will be possible both days across mainly
southeastern Kansas and the western Ozarks both afternoons.

Highs will be slightly warmer Sunday than those occurring this
afternoon, as they warm into the middle 80s with the ridge
overhead. The ridge will then start to slide east of the area on
Monday as an upper level trough pushes into the plains.
Temperatures will still be well above normal as they warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The upper level trough and a surface cold front will push to the
southeast through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday.
Showers are expected to develop along and behind the front as it
pushes through the region. There will be enough instability for
some embedded rumbles of thunder within the showers. No severe
weather is expected. The rain will push south of the area Tuesday
afternoon.

A more seasonable airmass for late October will spread into the
region behind the front for the middle portions of the week. Highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another upper level trough will push through the region late in
the week into next weekend. At this time not expected much in the
way of any rain with this system as there will not be a lot of
moisture to work with. This system is expected to bring an even
cooler airmass to the region for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

There are no aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region with VFR expected. Clear skies and light winds
tonight will become southerly and breezy on Sunday.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
         Today(Sat)    Sun

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Griffin
CLIMATE...Wise









000
FXUS63 KSGF 252032 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

An upper level ridge that is currently over the plains will
continue to slide east and over the region on Sunday. Southerly
winds will increase and be breezy on both Sunday and Monday. Wind
gust up to 30 mph will be possible both days across mainly
southeastern Kansas and the western Ozarks both afternoons.

Highs will be slightly warmer Sunday than those occurring this
afternoon, as they warm into the middle 80s with the ridge
overhead. The ridge will then start to slide east of the area on
Monday as an upper level trough pushes into the plains.
Temperatures will still be well above normal as they warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The upper level trough and a surface cold front will push to the
southeast through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday.
Showers are expected to develop along and behind the front as it
pushes through the region. There will be enough instability for
some embedded rumbles of thunder within the showers. No severe
weather is expected. The rain will push south of the area Tuesday
afternoon.

A more seasonable airmass for late October will spread into the
region behind the front for the middle portions of the week. Highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another upper level trough will push through the region late in
the week into next weekend. At this time not expected much in the
way of any rain with this system as there will not be a lot of
moisture to work with. This system is expected to bring an even
cooler airmass to the region for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light west
winds this afternoon are expected to back overnight to a more
southerly direction by daybreak and increase in speed towards the
end of the TAF period. With gradual increase in wind speed around day
break...the atmosphere should remain mixed enough to preclude any
fog development.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
         Today(Sat)    Sun

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede
CLIMATE...Wise










000
FXUS63 KSGF 252028
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

An upper level ridge that is currently over the plains will
continue to slide east and over the region on Sunday. Southerly
winds will increase and be breezy on both Sunday and Monday. Wind
gust up to 30 mph will be possible both days across mainly southeastern
Kansas and the western Ozarks both afternoons.

Highs will be slightly warmer Sunday than those occurring this
afternoon, as they warm into the middle 80s with the ridge
overhead. The ridge will then start to slide east of the area on
Monday as an upper level trough pushes into the plains.
Temperatures will still be well above normal as they warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The upper level trough and a surface cold front will push to the
southeast through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday.
Showers are expected to develop along and behind the front as it
pushes through the region. There will be enough instability for
some embedded rumbles of thunder within the showers. No severe
weather is expected. The rain will push south of the area Tuesday
afternoon.

A more seasonable airmass for late October will spread into the
region behind the front for the middle portions of the week. Highs
in the 0s and lows in the 40s can be expected Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another upper level trough will push through the region late in
the week into next weekend. At this time not expected much in the
way of any rain with this system as there will not be a lot of
moisture to work with. This system is expected to bring an even
cooler airmass to the region for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light west
winds this afternoon are expected to back overnight to a more
southerly direction by daybreak and increase in speed towards the
end of the TAF period. With gradual increase in wind speed around day
break...the atmosphere should remain mixed enough to preclude any
fog development.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
         Today(Sat)    Sun

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede
CLIMATE...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251701
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light west
winds this afternoon are expected to back overnight to a more
southerly direction by daybreak and increase in speed towards the
end of the TAF period. With gradual increase in wind speed around day
break...the atmosphere should remain mixed enough to preclude any
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251701
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light west
winds this afternoon are expected to back overnight to a more
southerly direction by daybreak and increase in speed towards the
end of the TAF period. With gradual increase in wind speed around day
break...the atmosphere should remain mixed enough to preclude any
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through tonight.
Light west to southwest winds will become light and variable
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through tonight.
Light west to southwest winds will become light and variable
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 250810
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

There are no big concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through Saturday evening. Mostly VFR
conditions will continue. With this update...have lowered the fog
potential for tonight. Will mention a tempo group for some MVFR
visibilities by sunrise in the morning. Otherwise skies will be
generally mostly clear and winds will be light southerly tonight
shifting to more westerly or southwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250447
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

An upper level ridge is located over the eastern Rockies at this
time while surface high pressure resides over the Arklatex region.
Mainly sct-bkn high level clouds were transiting the area within
the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The surface high pressure will bring fair weather and unseasonably
warm temperatures to the region through this weekend. The
combination of clearing skies and light winds will aid in creating
some patchy fog during the overnight hours. The fog should burn
off rather quickly after sunrise on Saturday.

The upper level ridge over the Rockies will gradually move eastward
and begin to flatten on Sunday as the next storm system makes its
way into the Pacific Northwest.

The 850 mb temperatures are expected to warm to close to 20C
across the western CWA by Sunday afternoon. This will push high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler as a cold
front and associated upper level system approach from the northwest.
Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday as the front
moves through the area. Rain should be ending in south central
Missouri by Wednesday morning. There is also a slight chance of
rain on Thursday as an upper level system moves through.

The passage of the cold front will return temperatures to more
seasonal levels with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
A secondary surge of Canadian air is expected by late in the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

There are no big concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through Saturday evening. Mostly VFR
conditions will continue. With this update...have lowered the fog
potential for tonight. Will mention a tempo group for some MVFR
visibilities by sunrise in the morning. Otherwise skies will be
generally mostly clear and winds will be light southerly tonight
shifting to more westerly or southwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
            Sat.       Sun.

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 242253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

An upper level ridge is located over the eastern Rockies at this
time while surface high pressure resides over the Arklatex region.
Mainly sct-bkn high level clouds were transiting the area within
the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The surface high pressure will bring fair weather and unseasonably
warm temperatures to the region through this weekend. The
combination of clearing skies and light winds will aid in creating
some patchy fog during the overnight hours. The fog should burn
off rather quickly after sunrise on Saturday.

The upper level ridge over the Rockies will gradually move eastward
and begin to flatten on Sunday as the next storm system makes its
way into the Pacific Northwest.

The 850 mb temperatures are expected to warm to close to 20C
across the western CWA by Sunday afternoon. This will push high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler as a cold
front and associated upper level system approach from the northwest.
Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday as the front
moves through the area. Rain should be ending in south central
Missouri by Wednesday morning. There is also a slight chance of
rain on Thursday as an upper level system moves through.

The passage of the cold front will return temperatures to more
seasonal levels with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
A secondary surge of Canadian air is expected by late in the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The only aviation concern for tonight will be the potential for
patchy fog developing late tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Skies will generally be mostly clear. Winds will be light
southwest becoming light and variable late tonight. Will have all
TAF sites with MVFR visibilities after 08z tonight with a mention
of TEMPO groups for possible IFR visibilities between 10z to 13z.
Any fog will dissipate after 14z tomorrow morning with mostly
clear skies and light southwest winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
            Sat.       Sun.

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 242026
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

An upper level ridge is located over the eastern Rockies at this
time while surface high pressure resides over the Arklatex region.
Mainly sct-bkn high level clouds were transiting the area within
the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The surface high pressure will bring fair weather and unseasonably
warm temperatures to the region through this weekend. The
combination of clearing skies and light winds will aid in creating
some patchy fog during the overnight hours. The fog should burn
off rather quickly after sunrise on Saturday.

The upper level ridge over the Rockies will gradually move eastward
and begin to flatten on Sunday as the next storm system makes its
way into the Pacific Northwest.

The 850 mb temperatures are expected to warm to close to 20C
across the western CWA by Sunday afternoon. This will push high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler as a cold
front and associated upper level system approach from the northwest.
Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday as the front
moves through the area. Rain should be ending in south central
Missouri by Wednesday morning. There is also a slight chance of
rain on Thursday as an upper level system moves through.

The passage of the cold front will return temperatures to more
seasonal levels with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
A secondary surge of Canadian air is expected by late in the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: The 4Kft cloud deck that is
currently over the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites, will quickly push east
early this afternoon with just broken high clouds occurring
through much of the afternoon. This evening the skies will clear
and some light patchy fog may be able to develop in spots. At this
time do not have enough confidence in it developing and affecting
the TAF sites to include in this TAF package but will continue to
monitor for the potential.

Winds will generally be out of the southwest through the TAF
period as a warmer airmass continues to spread into the region.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
            Sat.       Sun.

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Wise









000
FXUS63 KSGF 241718
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: The 4Kft cloud deck that is
currently over the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites, will quickly push east
early this afternoon with just broken high clouds occurring
through much of the afternoon. This evening the skies will clear
and some light patchy fog may be able to develop in spots. At this
time do not have enough confidence in it developing and affecting
the TAF sites to include in this TAF package but will continue to
monitor for the potential.

Winds will generally be out of the southwest through the TAF
period as a warmer airmass continues to spread into the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241059
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The threat for widespread dense fog has diminished early this
morning across southern Missouri. Patches of IFR visibility are
still expected, but the threat for LIFR is low. Any fog will then
burn off by mid-morning as southerly winds increase. Some weather
models bring in a few hours of MVFR cloud cover later this
morning, however we have elected to keep this threat out of the
TAFs given an overall lack of MVFR ceilings in regional
observations. Thus, we are expecting VFR conditions from mid-
morning through most of tonight. We will have to watch for fog
potential again late tonight, but confidence remains low in this
scenario.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ077-079-
     088>091-093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240833
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become more dense tonight than initially expected...and
will be the main aviation concern through morning. Visibilities
will vary widely in both space and time...with some terminals
seeing vis vary between VFR and airport minimums within the span
of an hour. Right now, fog is expected to be most widespread at
SGF, followed by JLN and then BBG. However, confidence in exact
magnitude is low.

Along with the fog...cigs will also vary widely...ranging from VFR
to LIFR.

Conditions should improve considerably within a few hours of
sunrise Friday morning, with VFR expected from mid morning as
skies clear and fog dissipates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ077-079-
     088>091-093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240447
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Late Evening Update for Dense Fog and 06Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become increasingly dense across southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas where clouds have continued to clear...and
have gone ahead with Dense Fog Advisory for this area through 8
AM. Visibilities will be rather variable across the Advisory
area, with rapid changes in visibility over short distances
expected. Trends will be monitored for the possibility of
expanding the Advisory further north and east later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become more dense tonight than initially expected...and
will be the main aviation concern through morning. Visibilities
will vary widely in both space and time...with some terminals
seeing vis vary between VFR and airport minimums within the span
of an hour. Right now, fog is expected to be most widespread at
SGF, followed by JLN and then BBG. However, confidence in exact
magnitude is low.

Along with the fog...cigs will also vary widely...ranging from VFR
to LIFR.

Conditions should improve considerably within a few hours of
sunrise Friday morning, with VFR expected from mid morning as
skies clear and fog dissipates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ077-079-088>091-
     093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 240426
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Late Evening Update for Dense Fog...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become increasingly dense across southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas where clouds have continued to clear...and
have gone ahead with Dense Fog Advisory for this area through 8
AM. Visibilities will be rather variable across the Advisory
area, with rapid changes in visibility over short distances
expected. Trends will be monitored for the possibility of
expanding the Advisory further north and east later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ077-079-088>091-
     093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 240159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Mid Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Have made some updates this evening to increase fog potential
across the region. Early evening temperatures have cooled a bit
faster than initially expected thanks to some breaks in the cloud
cover, and this has resulted in fog formation in several locations as
of mid evening. Temperatures will continue to cool through the
overnight, and with no dry air advecting into the region, many
locations will likely approach saturation during the overnight
hours. Fog will be patchy in nature, owning to the scattered to
broken nature of the cloud cover, and will be most likely in those
areas that experienced a brief shower earlier today.

For now, will take visibilities down to around a mile or so,
though lower values are certainly possible on a localized basis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 240159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Mid Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Have made some updates this evening to increase fog potential
across the region. Early evening temperatures have cooled a bit
faster than initially expected thanks to some breaks in the cloud
cover, and this has resulted in fog formation in several locations as
of mid evening. Temperatures will continue to cool through the
overnight, and with no dry air advecting into the region, many
locations will likely approach saturation during the overnight
hours. Fog will be patchy in nature, owning to the scattered to
broken nature of the cloud cover, and will be most likely in those
areas that experienced a brief shower earlier today.

For now, will take visibilities down to around a mile or so,
though lower values are certainly possible on a localized basis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 232327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Quick moving upper level shortwave was pushing through the area
today and has brought light rain showers to mostly the western
half of the CWA, although a few remnant showers were occurring in
the east this afternoon. The cloud cover/scattered showers were
aiding in keeping temperatures from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Main forecast focus will be with the well above normal
temperatures expected over the next few days and the
shower/thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231926
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Quick moving upper level shortwave was pushing through the area
today and has brought light rain showers to mostly the western
half of the CWA, although a few remnant showers were occuring in
the east this afternoon. The cloud cover/scattered showers were
aiding in keeping temperatures from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Main forecast focus will be with the well above normal
temperatures expected over the next few days and the
shower/thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231926
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Quick moving upper level shortwave was pushing through the area
today and has brought light rain showers to mostly the western
half of the CWA, although a few remnant showers were occuring in
the east this afternoon. The cloud cover/scattered showers were
aiding in keeping temperatures from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Main forecast focus will be with the well above normal
temperatures expected over the next few days and the
shower/thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231209
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
709 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

An upper level trough was moving across the region early this
morning. This will bring cloud cover and showers to the regions
terminals through the day. Limited impacts to ceilings and
visibilities are expected as the shower activity is expected to be
scattered in nature. Generally VFR ceilings and visibilities are
anticipated.

The trough will shift east of the region by this evening and for
the overnight period. only some high level ceilings at or above
10kft will linger into Friday morning as an upper level ridge
begins to move towards the area for the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Lindenberg









000
FXUS63 KSGF 230748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible toward morning, with chances at JLN at
least worthy of VCSH mention. For BBG and SGF, while there will be
a chance, very dry air in place aloft will keep potential too low
to warrant a TAF mention at this time. If showers do affect a
terminal, vis and cigs should remain well into VFR range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230426
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...06z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible toward morning, with chances at JLN at
least worthy of VCSH mention. For BBG and SGF, while there will be
a chance, very dry air in place aloft will keep potential too low
to warrant a TAF mention at this time. If showers do affect a
terminal, vis and cigs should remain well into VFR range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities