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000
FXUS63 KSGF 192040
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

An upper level trough is pushing east across Kansas early this
afternoon. Ahead of the the trough, a surface boundary will push east
across the eastern Ozarks early this afternoon. A few thunderstorms
are developing long this boundary. Instability is currently
limited ahead of this boundary as showers and cloudy skies have
occurred across a lot of eastern Ozarks this morning. Therefore no
severe weather is expected with this activity.

Behind this boundary winds have switched to the northwest and
dewpoints have drooped slightly. Breaks in the clouds are starting
to occur across southwestern Missouri behind the front pushing
east. As the upper level trough pushes east into the area later
this afternoon into this evening scattered thunderstorms will
develop. Instability will increase slightly this afternoon but
the decrease dewpoints will still keep instability on the limited
side. Height falls from the approaching trough will result in
colder temperatures aloft. Therefore storms will not have to grow
as tall to produce hail.

The limited instability will keep us from having a widespread
severe risk, but small hail will be possible with any storms that
develop this afternoon given the colder temperatures aloft. A few
of the stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of
quarters and a possibly a few gust to around 60 mph, mainly across
far southern Missouri with the best instability. The better severe
potential will be just south of the area where better instability
will occur across Arkansas.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A mid level shortwave trough will track from Kansas and across
Missouri tonight while dragging an associated cold front across
the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the passage of the front and shortwave trough with its
associated cold core this evening. The greatest coverage of
convection is expected across far southern Missouri this evening.
Will have to monitor the potential of strong storms moving out of
northern Arkansas into far south central Missouri. The primary
risk within strong to marginally severe storms this evening will
be hail.

Convection will taper off quickly following the frontal passage
as the evening progresses. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop
behind the front during the night.

Rather cool and blustery conditions are in store for Monday in the
wake of the cold frontal passage. High temperatures will only
reach the lower and middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A cool and unsettled weather pattern will become established this
coming week as a deep upper low evolves over the Great Lakes
region and a northwesterly flow regime develops.

A series of disturbances streaking through this flow will bring
intervals of cloud cover and intermittent chances for showers
Tuesday into Thursday.

An upper level trough will approach the area late in the week into
Saturday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive
later Friday as this system lifts across the lower Missouri River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR conditions will continue for another hour or two at the
terminal sites. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will then move
into JLN by mid afternoon and then SGF and BBG by late
afternoon/early evening. Best thunderstorm potential will be at
BBG this evening. Once showers and thunderstorms exit late this
evening a band of low clouds will move in creating MVFR conditions
through early tomorrow morning before clearing. While not included
in the TAFS, there is a low potential for low level wind shear
overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield/Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192040
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

An upper level trough is pushing east across Kansas early this
afternoon. Ahead of the the trough, a surface boundary will push east
across the eastern Ozarks early this afternoon. A few thunderstorms
are developing long this boundary. Instability is currently
limited ahead of this boundary as showers and cloudy skies have
occurred across a lot of eastern Ozarks this morning. Therefore no
severe weather is expected with this activity.

Behind this boundary winds have switched to the northwest and
dewpoints have drooped slightly. Breaks in the clouds are starting
to occur across southwestern Missouri behind the front pushing
east. As the upper level trough pushes east into the area later
this afternoon into this evening scattered thunderstorms will
develop. Instability will increase slightly this afternoon but
the decrease dewpoints will still keep instability on the limited
side. Height falls from the approaching trough will result in
colder temperatures aloft. Therefore storms will not have to grow
as tall to produce hail.

The limited instability will keep us from having a widespread
severe risk, but small hail will be possible with any storms that
develop this afternoon given the colder temperatures aloft. A few
of the stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of
quarters and a possibly a few gust to around 60 mph, mainly across
far southern Missouri with the best instability. The better severe
potential will be just south of the area where better instability
will occur across Arkansas.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A mid level shortwave trough will track from Kansas and across
Missouri tonight while dragging an associated cold front across
the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the passage of the front and shortwave trough with its
associated cold core this evening. The greatest coverage of
convection is expected across far southern Missouri this evening.
Will have to monitor the potential of strong storms moving out of
northern Arkansas into far south central Missouri. The primary
risk within strong to marginally severe storms this evening will
be hail.

Convection will taper off quickly following the frontal passage
as the evening progresses. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop
behind the front during the night.

Rather cool and blustery conditions are in store for Monday in the
wake of the cold frontal passage. High temperatures will only
reach the lower and middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A cool and unsettled weather pattern will become established this
coming week as a deep upper low evolves over the Great Lakes
region and a northwesterly flow regime develops.

A series of disturbances streaking through this flow will bring
intervals of cloud cover and intermittent chances for showers
Tuesday into Thursday.

An upper level trough will approach the area late in the week into
Saturday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive
later Friday as this system lifts across the lower Missouri River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR conditions will continue for another hour or two at the
terminal sites. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will then move
into JLN by mid afternoon and then SGF and BBG by late
afternoon/early evening. Best thunderstorm potential will be at
BBG this evening. Once showers and thunderstorms exit late this
evening a band of low clouds will move in creating MVFR conditions
through early tomorrow morning before clearing. While not included
in the TAFS, there is a low potential for low level wind shear
overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield/Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 191803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
103 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

...Thunderstorm Development Expected This Afternoon...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

An upper level trough is pushing east across Kansas early this
afternoon. Ahead of the the trough, a surface boundary will push east
across the eastern Ozarks early this afternoon. A few thunderstorms
are developing long this boundary. Instability is currently
limited ahead of this boundary as showers and cloudy skies have
occurred across a lot of eastern Ozarks this morning. Therefore no
severe weather is expected with this activity.

Behind this boundary winds have switched to the northwest and
dewpoints have drooped slightly. Breaks in the clouds are starting
to occur across southwestern Missouri behind the front pushing
east. As the upper level trough pushes east into the area later
this afternoon into this evening scattered thunderstorms will
develop. Instability will increase slightly this afternoon but
the decrease dewpoints will still keep instability on the limited
side. Height falls from the approaching trough will result in
colder temperatures aloft. Therefore storms will not have to grow
as tall to produce hail.

The limited instability will keep us from having a widespread
severe risk, but small hail will be possible with any storms that
develop this afternoon given the colder temperatures aloft. A few
of the stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of
quarters and a possibly a few gust to around 60 mph, mainly across
far southern Missouri with the best instability. The better severe
potential will be just south of the area where better instability
will occur across Arkansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR conditions will continue for another hour or two at the
terminal sites. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will then move
into JLN by mid afternoon and then SGF and BBG by late
afternoon/early evening. Best thunderstorm potential will be at
BBG this evening. Once showers and thunderstorms exit late this
evening a band of low clouds will move in creating MVFR conditions
through early tomorrow morning before clearing. While not included
in the TAFS, there is a low potential for low level wind shear
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Burchfield/Foster














000
FXUS63 KSGF 191803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
103 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

...Thunderstorm Development Expected This Afternoon...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

An upper level trough is pushing east across Kansas early this
afternoon. Ahead of the the trough, a surface boundary will push east
across the eastern Ozarks early this afternoon. A few thunderstorms
are developing long this boundary. Instability is currently
limited ahead of this boundary as showers and cloudy skies have
occurred across a lot of eastern Ozarks this morning. Therefore no
severe weather is expected with this activity.

Behind this boundary winds have switched to the northwest and
dewpoints have drooped slightly. Breaks in the clouds are starting
to occur across southwestern Missouri behind the front pushing
east. As the upper level trough pushes east into the area later
this afternoon into this evening scattered thunderstorms will
develop. Instability will increase slightly this afternoon but
the decrease dewpoints will still keep instability on the limited
side. Height falls from the approaching trough will result in
colder temperatures aloft. Therefore storms will not have to grow
as tall to produce hail.

The limited instability will keep us from having a widespread
severe risk, but small hail will be possible with any storms that
develop this afternoon given the colder temperatures aloft. A few
of the stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of
quarters and a possibly a few gust to around 60 mph, mainly across
far southern Missouri with the best instability. The better severe
potential will be just south of the area where better instability
will occur across Arkansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR conditions will continue for another hour or two at the
terminal sites. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will then move
into JLN by mid afternoon and then SGF and BBG by late
afternoon/early evening. Best thunderstorm potential will be at
BBG this evening. Once showers and thunderstorms exit late this
evening a band of low clouds will move in creating MVFR conditions
through early tomorrow morning before clearing. While not included
in the TAFS, there is a low potential for low level wind shear
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Burchfield/Foster













000
FXUS63 KSGF 191126
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A few showers will remain possible early this morning around
Branson with pockets of IFR ceilings also expected. VFR conditions
are then expected across southern Missouri from mid-morning
through early afternoon. A cold front will then sweep through the
area from late this afternoon into early this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front with winds becoming gusty
out of the northwest. Once the showers and thunderstorms end this
evening, weather models indicate a band of MVFR ceilings then
moving through the region tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191126
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A few showers will remain possible early this morning around
Branson with pockets of IFR ceilings also expected. VFR conditions
are then expected across southern Missouri from mid-morning
through early afternoon. A cold front will then sweep through the
area from late this afternoon into early this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front with winds becoming gusty
out of the northwest. Once the showers and thunderstorms end this
evening, weather models indicate a band of MVFR ceilings then
moving through the region tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 191126
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A few showers will remain possible early this morning around
Branson with pockets of IFR ceilings also expected. VFR conditions
are then expected across southern Missouri from mid-morning
through early afternoon. A cold front will then sweep through the
area from late this afternoon into early this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front with winds becoming gusty
out of the northwest. Once the showers and thunderstorms end this
evening, weather models indicate a band of MVFR ceilings then
moving through the region tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191126
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A few showers will remain possible early this morning around
Branson with pockets of IFR ceilings also expected. VFR conditions
are then expected across southern Missouri from mid-morning
through early afternoon. A cold front will then sweep through the
area from late this afternoon into early this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front with winds becoming gusty
out of the northwest. Once the showers and thunderstorms end this
evening, weather models indicate a band of MVFR ceilings then
moving through the region tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190847
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Challenging forecast for area aerodromes as convection will fester
around the region the rest of tonight, and regenerate Sunday
afternoon. Decaying bands of showers/storms will attempt to enter
from the west in the coming hours, however a lack of instability
will likely result in this activity losing its punch and gradually
dissipating as it moves through the JLN aerodrome. Earlier
clearing at SGF/BBG is being replaced by mid/high level clouds.
There is patchy ground fog around, but this may not become too
widespread. Bouts of MVFR visibility are expected, with an outside
chance of IFR at BBG. Main storm system will move into area Sunday
afternoon/evening. Another round of showers/storms will be
associated with this system, which will begin to exit to the east
by the end of the TAF cycle. Winds will be light into the daylight
hours of Sunday morning, becoming southwesterly during the day and
shift to the northwest heading into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 190847
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Challenging forecast for area aerodromes as convection will fester
around the region the rest of tonight, and regenerate Sunday
afternoon. Decaying bands of showers/storms will attempt to enter
from the west in the coming hours, however a lack of instability
will likely result in this activity losing its punch and gradually
dissipating as it moves through the JLN aerodrome. Earlier
clearing at SGF/BBG is being replaced by mid/high level clouds.
There is patchy ground fog around, but this may not become too
widespread. Bouts of MVFR visibility are expected, with an outside
chance of IFR at BBG. Main storm system will move into area Sunday
afternoon/evening. Another round of showers/storms will be
associated with this system, which will begin to exit to the east
by the end of the TAF cycle. Winds will be light into the daylight
hours of Sunday morning, becoming southwesterly during the day and
shift to the northwest heading into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 190847
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Challenging forecast for area aerodromes as convection will fester
around the region the rest of tonight, and regenerate Sunday
afternoon. Decaying bands of showers/storms will attempt to enter
from the west in the coming hours, however a lack of instability
will likely result in this activity losing its punch and gradually
dissipating as it moves through the JLN aerodrome. Earlier
clearing at SGF/BBG is being replaced by mid/high level clouds.
There is patchy ground fog around, but this may not become too
widespread. Bouts of MVFR visibility are expected, with an outside
chance of IFR at BBG. Main storm system will move into area Sunday
afternoon/evening. Another round of showers/storms will be
associated with this system, which will begin to exit to the east
by the end of the TAF cycle. Winds will be light into the daylight
hours of Sunday morning, becoming southwesterly during the day and
shift to the northwest heading into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190847
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Challenging forecast for area aerodromes as convection will fester
around the region the rest of tonight, and regenerate Sunday
afternoon. Decaying bands of showers/storms will attempt to enter
from the west in the coming hours, however a lack of instability
will likely result in this activity losing its punch and gradually
dissipating as it moves through the JLN aerodrome. Earlier
clearing at SGF/BBG is being replaced by mid/high level clouds.
There is patchy ground fog around, but this may not become too
widespread. Bouts of MVFR visibility are expected, with an outside
chance of IFR at BBG. Main storm system will move into area Sunday
afternoon/evening. Another round of showers/storms will be
associated with this system, which will begin to exit to the east
by the end of the TAF cycle. Winds will be light into the daylight
hours of Sunday morning, becoming southwesterly during the day and
shift to the northwest heading into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190501 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Forecast will be updated shortly to account for short term trends
from satellite/radar as well as to account for expected convective
trends heading into the overnight hours.

Over the past few hours, we have seen clearing across western
portions of the area. This clearing will likely be short lived as
mid/high level clouds increase from the west from convective
exhaust. That said, this area did see a soaking rain this morning
and dewpoints remain relatively high compared to expected lows. As
a result, will include a mention of patchy fog and keep an eye on
localized dense fog potential in places where skies can remain
clear for a longer period of time.

In addition, PoPs have been updated for the next 12 or so hours.
The western half of the area will likely see little in the way of
rain chances this evening. Chances over the eastern half look to
remain in the solid chance range giving on again/off again showers
and isolated thunder. HRRR and other short range models continue
to indicate rain chances increasing across south central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks from late this evening into the overnight
hours. In addition, remnant convection from KS/OK complexes will
enter from the west, with rain chances steadily increasing
across extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Interestingly, the Highway 65 corridor will likely be between
these two areas of activity and PoPs are lowest in this area for
tonight.

Taking a peak at tomorrow`s severe weather potential. There
remains some question as to just how much instability we will be
able to generate as decaying convection continues to spread in
from the west during the morning hours. The main upper trough will
not arrive until later in the day, bringing and increase in deep
layer shear. However, models struggle to bring much more that
500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE into the southern half of the
area. By far the better chances for severe convection will be to
our south and southeast. Obviously this is close enough to keep a
close eye on trends and we will see what the 00z suite of models
have in store for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms continued to decrease into
the afternoon. However a band of scattered showers and storms persisted
along a 925-850 MB convergence axis that stretched north to south
east of the Highway 65 corridor and in advance of a mid level vorticity
lobe lifting northeast across the area. Expect convection through
early evening to be focused along and ahead of these features
across south central Missouri. This 925-850 MB convergence axis
may become the focus for additional development later tonight
across the eastern Ozarks as another vorticity lobe lifts
northeast toward southeastern Missouri. Coverage of precipitation
will remain more isolated elsewhere much of tonight. However there
may be increase in convection from the west into southeastern
Kansas into far southwest late tonight as convection across the
Plains shifts eastward.

The closed upper level low now over eastern Colorado will open up
and track eastward toward Missouri on Sunday. Expect the coverage
of convection to increase Sunday as synoptic scale lift increases
with the aide of an increasingly diffluent upper flow and the
approach of vorticity maxima.

Deep layer shear will increase Sunday as the mid level flow
strengthens and lapse rates steepen as temperatures aloft cool in
response to the approaching upper level trough.

The question is the extent of instability that will develop. The
potential for ongoing convection and cloud cover may limit surface
heating and resulting instability. However if sufficient
instability can be realized then ingredients would be in place for
at least a few severe storms.

At this time the greatest potential for strong to severe storms
will be across far southern Missouri or generally along and south
of Interstate 44. The risk for severe weather could decrease or
increase depending on the amount of destabilization. The primary
risks with any severe storms that can develop would damaging winds
and large hail.

With some areas already receiving moderate to heavy rainfall the
past couple of days...the risk for localized flooding will have to
be monitored particularly across far southwestern Missouri.

Showers and some thunder will linger into Sunday night as the
upper level trough and associated cold front track across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Much cooler weather will prevail heading into early next week as
an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes and maintains a
northwesterly flow aloft across the region. This cooler weather
will persist most of next week. Weather conditions could also be
rather unsettled as disturbances slide southeastward around the
periphery of the upper trough. This will bring intervals clouds and
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times mid through
late week. However this activity is expected to be spotty in
nature.

Temperatures could fall into the upper 30s Monday night. Frost is
not expected at this time but this potential should be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Challenging forecast for area aerodromes as convection will fester
around the region the rest of tonight, and regenerate Sunday
afternoon. Decaying bands of showers/storms will attempt to enter
from the west in the coming hours, however a lack of instability
will likely result in this activity losing its punch and gradually
dissipating as it moves through the JLN aerodrome. Earlier
clearing at SGF/BBG is being replaced by mid/high level clouds.
There is patchy ground fog around, but this may not become too
widespread. Bouts of MVFR visibility are expected, with an outside
chance of IFR at BBG. Main storm system will move into area Sunday
afternoon/evening. Another round of showers/storms will be
associated with this system, which will begin to exit to the east
by the end of the TAF cycle. Winds will be light into the daylight
hours of Sunday morning, becoming southwesterly during the day and
shift to the northwest heading into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190003 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
703 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Update to Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Forecast will be updated shortly to account for short term trends
from satellite/radar as well as to account for expected convective
trends heading into the overnight hours.

Over the past few hours, we have seen clearing across western
portions of the area. This clearing will likely be short lived as
mid/high level clouds increase from the west from convective
exhaust. That said, this area did see a soaking rain this morning
and dewpoints remain relatively high compared to expected lows. As
a result, will include a mention of patchy fog and keep an eye on
localized dense fog potential in places where skies can remain
clear for a longer period of time.

In addition, PoPs have been updated for the next 12 or so hours.
The western half of the area will likely see little in the way of
rain chances this evening. Chances over the eastern half look to
remain in the solid chance range giving on again/off again showers
and isolated thunder. HRRR and other short range models continue
to indicate rain chances increasing across south central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks from late this evening into the overnight
hours. In addition, remnant convection from KS/OK complexes will
enter from the west, with rain chances steadily increasing
across extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Interestingly, the Highway 65 corridor will likely be between
these two areas of activity and PoPs are lowest in this area for
tonight.

Taking a peak at tomorrow`s severe weather potential. There
remains some question as to just how much instability we will be
able to generate as decaying convection continues to spread in
from the west during the morning hours. The main upper trough will
not arrive until later in the day, bringing and increase in deep
layer shear. However, models struggle to bring much more that
500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE into the southern half of the
area. By far the better chances for severe convection will be to
our south and southeast. Obviously this is close enough to keep a
close eye on trends and we will see what the 00z suite of models
have in store for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms continued to decrease into
the afternoon. However a band of scattered showers and storms persisted
along a 925-850 MB convergence axis that stretched north to south
east of the Highway 65 corridor and in advance of a mid level vorticity
lobe lifting northeast across the area. Expect convection through
early evening to be focused along and ahead of these features
across south central Missouri. This 925-850 MB convergence axis
may become the focus for additional development later tonight
across the eastern Ozarks as another vorticity lobe lifts
northeast toward southeastern Missouri. Coverage of precipitation
will remain more isolated elsewhere much of tonight. However there
may be increase in convection from the west into southeastern
Kansas into far southwest late tonight as convection across the
Plains shifts eastward.

The closed upper level low now over eastern Colorado will open up
and track eastward toward Missouri on Sunday. Expect the coverage
of convection to increase Sunday as synoptic scale lift increases
with the aide of an increasingly diffluent upper flow and the
approach of vorticity maxima.

Deep layer shear will increase Sunday as the mid level flow
strengthens and lapse rates steepen as temperatures aloft cool in
response to the approaching upper level trough.

The question is the extent of instability that will develop. The
potential for ongoing convection and cloud cover may limit surface
heating and resulting instability. However if sufficient
instability can be realized then ingredients would be in place for
at least a few severe storms.

At this time the greatest potential for strong to severe storms
will be across far southern Missouri or generally along and south
of Interstate 44. The risk for severe weather could decrease or
increase depending on the amount of destabilization. The primary
risks with any severe storms that can develop would damaging winds
and large hail.

With some areas already receiving moderate to heavy rainfall the
past couple of days...the risk for localized flooding will have to
be monitored particularly across far southwestern Missouri.

Showers and some thunder will linger into Sunday night as the
upper level trough and associated cold front track across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Much cooler weather will prevail heading into early next week as
an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes and maintains a
northwesterly flow aloft across the region. This cooler weather
will persist most of next week. Weather conditions could also be
rather unsettled as disturbances slide southeastward around the
periphery of the upper trough. This will bring intervals clouds and
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times mid through
late week. However this activity is expected to be spotty in
nature.

Temperatures could fall into the upper 30s Monday night. Frost is
not expected at this time but this potential should be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Partial clearing, light winds and most grounds from earlier today
will bring a risk of fog to the area late this evening into the
overnight hours. At this time, have inserted MVFR fog at all
sites, however there is a chance for IFR (possibly lower)
conditions at BBG and SGF if skies can remain clear long enough
into the overnight hours. Better rain chances this evening will be
well to the west and just to the east of the aerodromes. Rain
chances will increase overnight at JLN as a decaying complex of
showers/storms approaches from KS/OK. This activity will spread
eastward into the SGF/BBG aerodromes during the daylight hours of
Sunday morning, with redevelopment of showers/storms possible at
all sites Sunday afternoon before exiting Sunday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190003 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
703 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Update to Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Forecast will be updated shortly to account for short term trends
from satellite/radar as well as to account for expected convective
trends heading into the overnight hours.

Over the past few hours, we have seen clearing across western
portions of the area. This clearing will likely be short lived as
mid/high level clouds increase from the west from convective
exhaust. That said, this area did see a soaking rain this morning
and dewpoints remain relatively high compared to expected lows. As
a result, will include a mention of patchy fog and keep an eye on
localized dense fog potential in places where skies can remain
clear for a longer period of time.

In addition, PoPs have been updated for the next 12 or so hours.
The western half of the area will likely see little in the way of
rain chances this evening. Chances over the eastern half look to
remain in the solid chance range giving on again/off again showers
and isolated thunder. HRRR and other short range models continue
to indicate rain chances increasing across south central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks from late this evening into the overnight
hours. In addition, remnant convection from KS/OK complexes will
enter from the west, with rain chances steadily increasing
across extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Interestingly, the Highway 65 corridor will likely be between
these two areas of activity and PoPs are lowest in this area for
tonight.

Taking a peak at tomorrow`s severe weather potential. There
remains some question as to just how much instability we will be
able to generate as decaying convection continues to spread in
from the west during the morning hours. The main upper trough will
not arrive until later in the day, bringing and increase in deep
layer shear. However, models struggle to bring much more that
500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE into the southern half of the
area. By far the better chances for severe convection will be to
our south and southeast. Obviously this is close enough to keep a
close eye on trends and we will see what the 00z suite of models
have in store for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms continued to decrease into
the afternoon. However a band of scattered showers and storms persisted
along a 925-850 MB convergence axis that stretched north to south
east of the Highway 65 corridor and in advance of a mid level vorticity
lobe lifting northeast across the area. Expect convection through
early evening to be focused along and ahead of these features
across south central Missouri. This 925-850 MB convergence axis
may become the focus for additional development later tonight
across the eastern Ozarks as another vorticity lobe lifts
northeast toward southeastern Missouri. Coverage of precipitation
will remain more isolated elsewhere much of tonight. However there
may be increase in convection from the west into southeastern
Kansas into far southwest late tonight as convection across the
Plains shifts eastward.

The closed upper level low now over eastern Colorado will open up
and track eastward toward Missouri on Sunday. Expect the coverage
of convection to increase Sunday as synoptic scale lift increases
with the aide of an increasingly diffluent upper flow and the
approach of vorticity maxima.

Deep layer shear will increase Sunday as the mid level flow
strengthens and lapse rates steepen as temperatures aloft cool in
response to the approaching upper level trough.

The question is the extent of instability that will develop. The
potential for ongoing convection and cloud cover may limit surface
heating and resulting instability. However if sufficient
instability can be realized then ingredients would be in place for
at least a few severe storms.

At this time the greatest potential for strong to severe storms
will be across far southern Missouri or generally along and south
of Interstate 44. The risk for severe weather could decrease or
increase depending on the amount of destabilization. The primary
risks with any severe storms that can develop would damaging winds
and large hail.

With some areas already receiving moderate to heavy rainfall the
past couple of days...the risk for localized flooding will have to
be monitored particularly across far southwestern Missouri.

Showers and some thunder will linger into Sunday night as the
upper level trough and associated cold front track across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Much cooler weather will prevail heading into early next week as
an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes and maintains a
northwesterly flow aloft across the region. This cooler weather
will persist most of next week. Weather conditions could also be
rather unsettled as disturbances slide southeastward around the
periphery of the upper trough. This will bring intervals clouds and
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times mid through
late week. However this activity is expected to be spotty in
nature.

Temperatures could fall into the upper 30s Monday night. Frost is
not expected at this time but this potential should be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Partial clearing, light winds and most grounds from earlier today
will bring a risk of fog to the area late this evening into the
overnight hours. At this time, have inserted MVFR fog at all
sites, however there is a chance for IFR (possibly lower)
conditions at BBG and SGF if skies can remain clear long enough
into the overnight hours. Better rain chances this evening will be
well to the west and just to the east of the aerodromes. Rain
chances will increase overnight at JLN as a decaying complex of
showers/storms approaches from KS/OK. This activity will spread
eastward into the SGF/BBG aerodromes during the daylight hours of
Sunday morning, with redevelopment of showers/storms possible at
all sites Sunday afternoon before exiting Sunday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 182032
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...More Showers & Storms Through Sunday Night then Cooler...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms continued to decrease into
the afternoon. However a band of scattered showers and storms persisted
along a 925-850 MB convergence axis that stretched north to south
east of the Highway 65 corridor and in advance of a mid level vorticity
lobe lifting northeast across the area. Expect convection through
early evening to be focused along and ahead of these features
across south central Missouri. This 925-850 MB convergence axis
may become the focus for additional development later tonight
across the eastern Ozarks as another vorticity lobe lifts
northeast toward southeastern Missouri. Coverage of precipitation
will remain more isolated elsewhere much of tonight. However there
may be increase in convection from the west into southeastern
Kansas into far southwest late tonight as convection across the
Plains shifts eastward.

The closed upper level low now over eastern Colorado will open up
and track eastward toward Missouri on Sunday. Expect the coverage
of convection to increase Sunday as synoptic scale lift increases
with the aide of an increasingly diffluennt upper flow and the
approach of vorticity maxima.

Deep layer shear will increase Sunday as the mid level flow
strengthens and lapse rates steepen as temperatures aloft cool in
response to the approaching upper level trough.

The question is the extent of instability that will develop. The
potential for ongoing convection and cloud cover may limit surface
heating and resulting instability. However if sufficient
instability can be realized then ingredients would be in place for
at least a few severe storms.

At this time the greatest potential for strong to severe storms
will be across far southern Missouri or generally along and south
of Interstate 44. The risk for severe weather could decrease or
increase depending on the amount of destabilization. The primary
risks with any severe storms that can develop would damaging winds
and large hail.

With some areas already receiving moderate to heavy rainfall the
past couple of days...the risk for localized flooding will have to
be monitored particularly across far southwestern Missouri.

Showers and some thunder will linger into Sunday night as the
upper level trough and associated cold front track across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Much cooler weather will prevail heading into early next week as
an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes and maintains a
northwesterly flow aloft across the region. This cooler weather
will persist most of next week. Weather conditions could also be
rather unsettled as disturbances slide southeastward around the
periphery of the upper trough. This will bring intervals clouds and
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times mid through
late week. However this activity is expected to be spotty in
nature.

Temperatures could fall into the upper 30s Monday night. Frost is
not expected at this time but this potential should be monitored.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Pilots can expect unsettled weather conditions to continue through
tonight and Sunday as a storm system slowly approaches the region.

Showers and intervals of MVFR conditions will continue into early
this afternoon. Some improvement in conditions are expected by mid
afternoon into the evening. However expect areas of lower ceilings
and patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning to result in
areas of MVFR conditions.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 182032
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...More Showers & Storms Through Sunday Night then Cooler...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms continued to decrease into
the afternoon. However a band of scattered showers and storms persisted
along a 925-850 MB convergence axis that stretched north to south
east of the Highway 65 corridor and in advance of a mid level vorticity
lobe lifting northeast across the area. Expect convection through
early evening to be focused along and ahead of these features
across south central Missouri. This 925-850 MB convergence axis
may become the focus for additional development later tonight
across the eastern Ozarks as another vorticity lobe lifts
northeast toward southeastern Missouri. Coverage of precipitation
will remain more isolated elsewhere much of tonight. However there
may be increase in convection from the west into southeastern
Kansas into far southwest late tonight as convection across the
Plains shifts eastward.

The closed upper level low now over eastern Colorado will open up
and track eastward toward Missouri on Sunday. Expect the coverage
of convection to increase Sunday as synoptic scale lift increases
with the aide of an increasingly diffluennt upper flow and the
approach of vorticity maxima.

Deep layer shear will increase Sunday as the mid level flow
strengthens and lapse rates steepen as temperatures aloft cool in
response to the approaching upper level trough.

The question is the extent of instability that will develop. The
potential for ongoing convection and cloud cover may limit surface
heating and resulting instability. However if sufficient
instability can be realized then ingredients would be in place for
at least a few severe storms.

At this time the greatest potential for strong to severe storms
will be across far southern Missouri or generally along and south
of Interstate 44. The risk for severe weather could decrease or
increase depending on the amount of destabilization. The primary
risks with any severe storms that can develop would damaging winds
and large hail.

With some areas already receiving moderate to heavy rainfall the
past couple of days...the risk for localized flooding will have to
be monitored particularly across far southwestern Missouri.

Showers and some thunder will linger into Sunday night as the
upper level trough and associated cold front track across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Much cooler weather will prevail heading into early next week as
an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes and maintains a
northwesterly flow aloft across the region. This cooler weather
will persist most of next week. Weather conditions could also be
rather unsettled as disturbances slide southeastward around the
periphery of the upper trough. This will bring intervals clouds and
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times mid through
late week. However this activity is expected to be spotty in
nature.

Temperatures could fall into the upper 30s Monday night. Frost is
not expected at this time but this potential should be monitored.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Pilots can expect unsettled weather conditions to continue through
tonight and Sunday as a storm system slowly approaches the region.

Showers and intervals of MVFR conditions will continue into early
this afternoon. Some improvement in conditions are expected by mid
afternoon into the evening. However expect areas of lower ceilings
and patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning to result in
areas of MVFR conditions.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181655
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Showers Lingering This Afternoon - More Storms Sunday...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Widespread showers with some embedded thunder were impacting much
of southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas at
midday. Radar trends over the past couple of hours show an overall
decrease in intensity.

Expect showers with isolated thunder to persist into the afternoon
but continue a gradual diminishing trend as a mid level vorticity
lobe swings northeast across the area.

The cloud cover and lingering showers will impact warming potential
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the
predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and
tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across
the southern Canadian provinces. This will result in a continued
diffluent upper level flow aloft. With broad mid/upper level
ascent in place, it will be smaller scale features (e.g. mid-level
short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.

The first concern for today will be a mid-level wave currently
moving northeast into southwestern Oklahoma. This wave has
triggered a large corridor of scattered convection from central
Kansas into northeastern Texas. The convection across the southern
Plains is likely being aided by an approaching upper level jet
streak from northern Mexico. Extrapolation of these lifting
mechanisms will bring this corridor of convection into far western
Missouri during the predawn hours...with activity then spreading
towards Highway 65 by mid-morning. We may also see some additional
widely scattered convection try and develop early this morning
farther east across central Missouri as short range models
indicate a weak cap in place for elevated parcels.

Precipitation chances this afternoon and this evening then become
a bit more unclear for a couple of reasons. First off, morning
convection may throw out some outflow boundaries which could
refocus convective development in other parts of the Ozarks.
Additionally, models are not indicating any real focusing
mechanisms at this time with the area being in between mid-level
short waves. Given that we will still see large scale lift across
the area with the approach of the main energy, scattered to even
numerous showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible.
Temperatures today will be held down by clouds and precipitation
over many areas. However, areas of central Missouri may be able to
climb into the middle 70s.

By later tonight, another mid-level wave should approach the
region from the southwest. Meanwhile, models develop surface low
pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing it north-
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. These features should
provide additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. While
heavy rainfall will be possible over localized areas, low
confidence in the placement and spatial extent of heavy rainfall
preclude any kind of Flood Watch issuance at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on
Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. More showers and
thunderstorms will therefore be likely. The prospects for severe
storms have waned a bit as appreciable instability may be hard to
come by. We will have to continue to watch the hydro
situation...especially if locations pick up decent rainfall early
this weekend.

We will then get into a northwesterly flow aloft for the early and
middle portions of next work week. Temperatures will be below
normal with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
appearing increasingly likely for Monday night and Tuesday night.
We will have to watch this situation closely as slightly cooler
temperatures may open the door to frost potential. Medium range
models do bring a few ripples through in the northwest flow. Thus,
a shower or two cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

The northwest flow should then lose its grip by later next week
with global models advertising a decent short wave trough sliding
out into the central Plains to end the work week. This type of
regime should promote warmer temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Pilots can expect unsettled weather conditions to continue through
tonight and Sunday as a storm system slowly approaches the region.

Showers and intervals of MVFR conditions will continue into early
this afternoon. Some improvement in conditions are expected by mid
afternoon into the evening. However expect areas of lower ceilings
and patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning to result in
areas of MVFR conditions.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181655
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Showers Lingering This Afternoon - More Storms Sunday...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Widespread showers with some embedded thunder were impacting much
of southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas at
midday. Radar trends over the past couple of hours show an overall
decrease in intensity.

Expect showers with isolated thunder to persist into the afternoon
but continue a gradual diminishing trend as a mid level vorticity
lobe swings northeast across the area.

The cloud cover and lingering showers will impact warming potential
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the
predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and
tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across
the southern Canadian provinces. This will result in a continued
diffluent upper level flow aloft. With broad mid/upper level
ascent in place, it will be smaller scale features (e.g. mid-level
short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.

The first concern for today will be a mid-level wave currently
moving northeast into southwestern Oklahoma. This wave has
triggered a large corridor of scattered convection from central
Kansas into northeastern Texas. The convection across the southern
Plains is likely being aided by an approaching upper level jet
streak from northern Mexico. Extrapolation of these lifting
mechanisms will bring this corridor of convection into far western
Missouri during the predawn hours...with activity then spreading
towards Highway 65 by mid-morning. We may also see some additional
widely scattered convection try and develop early this morning
farther east across central Missouri as short range models
indicate a weak cap in place for elevated parcels.

Precipitation chances this afternoon and this evening then become
a bit more unclear for a couple of reasons. First off, morning
convection may throw out some outflow boundaries which could
refocus convective development in other parts of the Ozarks.
Additionally, models are not indicating any real focusing
mechanisms at this time with the area being in between mid-level
short waves. Given that we will still see large scale lift across
the area with the approach of the main energy, scattered to even
numerous showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible.
Temperatures today will be held down by clouds and precipitation
over many areas. However, areas of central Missouri may be able to
climb into the middle 70s.

By later tonight, another mid-level wave should approach the
region from the southwest. Meanwhile, models develop surface low
pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing it north-
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. These features should
provide additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. While
heavy rainfall will be possible over localized areas, low
confidence in the placement and spatial extent of heavy rainfall
preclude any kind of Flood Watch issuance at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on
Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. More showers and
thunderstorms will therefore be likely. The prospects for severe
storms have waned a bit as appreciable instability may be hard to
come by. We will have to continue to watch the hydro
situation...especially if locations pick up decent rainfall early
this weekend.

We will then get into a northwesterly flow aloft for the early and
middle portions of next work week. Temperatures will be below
normal with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
appearing increasingly likely for Monday night and Tuesday night.
We will have to watch this situation closely as slightly cooler
temperatures may open the door to frost potential. Medium range
models do bring a few ripples through in the northwest flow. Thus,
a shower or two cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

The northwest flow should then lose its grip by later next week
with global models advertising a decent short wave trough sliding
out into the central Plains to end the work week. This type of
regime should promote warmer temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Pilots can expect unsettled weather conditions to continue through
tonight and Sunday as a storm system slowly approaches the region.

Showers and intervals of MVFR conditions will continue into early
this afternoon. Some improvement in conditions are expected by mid
afternoon into the evening. However expect areas of lower ceilings
and patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning to result in
areas of MVFR conditions.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181655
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Showers Lingering This Afternoon - More Storms Sunday...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Widespread showers with some embedded thunder were impacting much
of southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas at
midday. Radar trends over the past couple of hours show an overall
decrease in intensity.

Expect showers with isolated thunder to persist into the afternoon
but continue a gradual diminishing trend as a mid level vorticity
lobe swings northeast across the area.

The cloud cover and lingering showers will impact warming potential
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the
predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and
tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across
the southern Canadian provinces. This will result in a continued
diffluent upper level flow aloft. With broad mid/upper level
ascent in place, it will be smaller scale features (e.g. mid-level
short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.

The first concern for today will be a mid-level wave currently
moving northeast into southwestern Oklahoma. This wave has
triggered a large corridor of scattered convection from central
Kansas into northeastern Texas. The convection across the southern
Plains is likely being aided by an approaching upper level jet
streak from northern Mexico. Extrapolation of these lifting
mechanisms will bring this corridor of convection into far western
Missouri during the predawn hours...with activity then spreading
towards Highway 65 by mid-morning. We may also see some additional
widely scattered convection try and develop early this morning
farther east across central Missouri as short range models
indicate a weak cap in place for elevated parcels.

Precipitation chances this afternoon and this evening then become
a bit more unclear for a couple of reasons. First off, morning
convection may throw out some outflow boundaries which could
refocus convective development in other parts of the Ozarks.
Additionally, models are not indicating any real focusing
mechanisms at this time with the area being in between mid-level
short waves. Given that we will still see large scale lift across
the area with the approach of the main energy, scattered to even
numerous showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible.
Temperatures today will be held down by clouds and precipitation
over many areas. However, areas of central Missouri may be able to
climb into the middle 70s.

By later tonight, another mid-level wave should approach the
region from the southwest. Meanwhile, models develop surface low
pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing it north-
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. These features should
provide additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. While
heavy rainfall will be possible over localized areas, low
confidence in the placement and spatial extent of heavy rainfall
preclude any kind of Flood Watch issuance at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on
Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. More showers and
thunderstorms will therefore be likely. The prospects for severe
storms have waned a bit as appreciable instability may be hard to
come by. We will have to continue to watch the hydro
situation...especially if locations pick up decent rainfall early
this weekend.

We will then get into a northwesterly flow aloft for the early and
middle portions of next work week. Temperatures will be below
normal with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
appearing increasingly likely for Monday night and Tuesday night.
We will have to watch this situation closely as slightly cooler
temperatures may open the door to frost potential. Medium range
models do bring a few ripples through in the northwest flow. Thus,
a shower or two cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

The northwest flow should then lose its grip by later next week
with global models advertising a decent short wave trough sliding
out into the central Plains to end the work week. This type of
regime should promote warmer temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Pilots can expect unsettled weather conditions to continue through
tonight and Sunday as a storm system slowly approaches the region.

Showers and intervals of MVFR conditions will continue into early
this afternoon. Some improvement in conditions are expected by mid
afternoon into the evening. However expect areas of lower ceilings
and patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning to result in
areas of MVFR conditions.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181655
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Showers Lingering This Afternoon - More Storms Sunday...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Widespread showers with some embedded thunder were impacting much
of southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas at
midday. Radar trends over the past couple of hours show an overall
decrease in intensity.

Expect showers with isolated thunder to persist into the afternoon
but continue a gradual diminishing trend as a mid level vorticity
lobe swings northeast across the area.

The cloud cover and lingering showers will impact warming potential
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the
predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and
tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across
the southern Canadian provinces. This will result in a continued
diffluent upper level flow aloft. With broad mid/upper level
ascent in place, it will be smaller scale features (e.g. mid-level
short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.

The first concern for today will be a mid-level wave currently
moving northeast into southwestern Oklahoma. This wave has
triggered a large corridor of scattered convection from central
Kansas into northeastern Texas. The convection across the southern
Plains is likely being aided by an approaching upper level jet
streak from northern Mexico. Extrapolation of these lifting
mechanisms will bring this corridor of convection into far western
Missouri during the predawn hours...with activity then spreading
towards Highway 65 by mid-morning. We may also see some additional
widely scattered convection try and develop early this morning
farther east across central Missouri as short range models
indicate a weak cap in place for elevated parcels.

Precipitation chances this afternoon and this evening then become
a bit more unclear for a couple of reasons. First off, morning
convection may throw out some outflow boundaries which could
refocus convective development in other parts of the Ozarks.
Additionally, models are not indicating any real focusing
mechanisms at this time with the area being in between mid-level
short waves. Given that we will still see large scale lift across
the area with the approach of the main energy, scattered to even
numerous showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible.
Temperatures today will be held down by clouds and precipitation
over many areas. However, areas of central Missouri may be able to
climb into the middle 70s.

By later tonight, another mid-level wave should approach the
region from the southwest. Meanwhile, models develop surface low
pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing it north-
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. These features should
provide additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. While
heavy rainfall will be possible over localized areas, low
confidence in the placement and spatial extent of heavy rainfall
preclude any kind of Flood Watch issuance at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on
Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. More showers and
thunderstorms will therefore be likely. The prospects for severe
storms have waned a bit as appreciable instability may be hard to
come by. We will have to continue to watch the hydro
situation...especially if locations pick up decent rainfall early
this weekend.

We will then get into a northwesterly flow aloft for the early and
middle portions of next work week. Temperatures will be below
normal with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
appearing increasingly likely for Monday night and Tuesday night.
We will have to watch this situation closely as slightly cooler
temperatures may open the door to frost potential. Medium range
models do bring a few ripples through in the northwest flow. Thus,
a shower or two cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

The northwest flow should then lose its grip by later next week
with global models advertising a decent short wave trough sliding
out into the central Plains to end the work week. This type of
regime should promote warmer temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Pilots can expect unsettled weather conditions to continue through
tonight and Sunday as a storm system slowly approaches the region.

Showers and intervals of MVFR conditions will continue into early
this afternoon. Some improvement in conditions are expected by mid
afternoon into the evening. However expect areas of lower ceilings
and patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning to result in
areas of MVFR conditions.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181137
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the
predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and
tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across
the southern Canadian provinces. This will result in a continued
diffluent upper level flow aloft. With broad mid/upper level
ascent in place, it will be smaller scale features (e.g. mid-level
short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.

The first concern for today will be a mid-level wave currently
moving northeast into southwestern Oklahoma. This wave has
triggered a large corridor of scattered convection from central
Kansas into northeastern Texas. The convection across the southern
Plains is likely being aided by an approaching upper level jet
streak from northern Mexico. Extrapolation of these lifting
mechanisms will bring this corridor of convection into far western
Missouri during the predawn hours...with activity then spreading
towards Highway 65 by mid-morning. We may also see some additional
widely scattered convection try and develop early this morning
farther east across central Missouri as short range models
indicate a weak cap in place for elevated parcels.

Precipitation chances this afternoon and this evening then become
a bit more unclear for a couple of reasons. First off, morning
convection may throw out some outflow boundaries which could
refocus convective development in other parts of the Ozarks.
Additionally, models are not indicating any real focusing
mechanisms at this time with the area being in between mid-level
short waves. Given that we will still see large scale lift across
the area with the approach of the main energy, scattered to even
numerous showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible.
Temperatures today will be held down by clouds and precipitation
over many areas. However, areas of central Missouri may be able to
climb into the middle 70s.

By later tonight, another mid-level wave should approach the
region from the southwest. Meanwhile, models develop surface low
pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing it north-
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. These features should
provide additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. While
heavy rainfall will be possible over localized areas, low
confidence in the placement and spatial extent of heavy rainfall
preclude any kind of Flood Watch issuance at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on
Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. More showers and
thunderstorms will therefore be likely. The prospects for severe
storms have waned a bit as appreciable instability may be hard to
come by. We will have to continue to watch the hydro
situation...especially if locations pick up decent rainfall early
this weekend.

We will then get into a northwesterly flow aloft for the early and
middle portions of next work week. Temperatures will be below
normal with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
appearing increasingly likely for Monday night and Tuesday night.
We will have to watch this situation closely as slightly cooler
temperatures may open the door to frost potential. Medium range
models do bring a few ripples through in the northwest flow. Thus,
a shower or two cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

The northwest flow should then lose its grip by later next week
with global models advertising a decent short wave trough sliding
out into the central Plains to end the work week. This type of
regime should promote warmer temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR conditions currently prevail across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms were continuing to develop and increase in coverage
in the KJLN vicinity. Could see some MVFR conditions with the
stronger cells through about 19z.

After that...the picture becomes a little more blurry. As the
upper low slowly traverses across the area and with no well
defined surface front...focus mechanisms for convection become a
challenge. Believe that there is a good chance of showers and
occasional thunderstorms through the remainder of the period.
However...have had to kind of broad brush the timing as confidence
is not high as to when a particular aerodrome will be affected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181137
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the
predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and
tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across
the southern Canadian provinces. This will result in a continued
diffluent upper level flow aloft. With broad mid/upper level
ascent in place, it will be smaller scale features (e.g. mid-level
short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.

The first concern for today will be a mid-level wave currently
moving northeast into southwestern Oklahoma. This wave has
triggered a large corridor of scattered convection from central
Kansas into northeastern Texas. The convection across the southern
Plains is likely being aided by an approaching upper level jet
streak from northern Mexico. Extrapolation of these lifting
mechanisms will bring this corridor of convection into far western
Missouri during the predawn hours...with activity then spreading
towards Highway 65 by mid-morning. We may also see some additional
widely scattered convection try and develop early this morning
farther east across central Missouri as short range models
indicate a weak cap in place for elevated parcels.

Precipitation chances this afternoon and this evening then become
a bit more unclear for a couple of reasons. First off, morning
convection may throw out some outflow boundaries which could
refocus convective development in other parts of the Ozarks.
Additionally, models are not indicating any real focusing
mechanisms at this time with the area being in between mid-level
short waves. Given that we will still see large scale lift across
the area with the approach of the main energy, scattered to even
numerous showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible.
Temperatures today will be held down by clouds and precipitation
over many areas. However, areas of central Missouri may be able to
climb into the middle 70s.

By later tonight, another mid-level wave should approach the
region from the southwest. Meanwhile, models develop surface low
pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing it north-
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. These features should
provide additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. While
heavy rainfall will be possible over localized areas, low
confidence in the placement and spatial extent of heavy rainfall
preclude any kind of Flood Watch issuance at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on
Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. More showers and
thunderstorms will therefore be likely. The prospects for severe
storms have waned a bit as appreciable instability may be hard to
come by. We will have to continue to watch the hydro
situation...especially if locations pick up decent rainfall early
this weekend.

We will then get into a northwesterly flow aloft for the early and
middle portions of next work week. Temperatures will be below
normal with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
appearing increasingly likely for Monday night and Tuesday night.
We will have to watch this situation closely as slightly cooler
temperatures may open the door to frost potential. Medium range
models do bring a few ripples through in the northwest flow. Thus,
a shower or two cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

The northwest flow should then lose its grip by later next week
with global models advertising a decent short wave trough sliding
out into the central Plains to end the work week. This type of
regime should promote warmer temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR conditions currently prevail across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms were continuing to develop and increase in coverage
in the KJLN vicinity. Could see some MVFR conditions with the
stronger cells through about 19z.

After that...the picture becomes a little more blurry. As the
upper low slowly traverses across the area and with no well
defined surface front...focus mechanisms for convection become a
challenge. Believe that there is a good chance of showers and
occasional thunderstorms through the remainder of the period.
However...have had to kind of broad brush the timing as confidence
is not high as to when a particular aerodrome will be affected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 180836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the
predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and
tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across
the southern Canadian provinces. This will result in a continued
diffluent upper level flow aloft. With broad mid/upper level
ascent in place, it will be smaller scale features (e.g. mid-level
short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.

The first concern for today will be a mid-level wave currently
moving northeast into southwestern Oklahoma. This wave has
triggered a large corridor of scattered convection from central
Kansas into northeastern Texas. The convection across the southern
Plains is likely being aided by an approaching upper level jet
streak from northern Mexico. Extrapolation of these lifting
mechanisms will bring this corridor of convection into far western
Missouri during the predawn hours...with activity then spreading
towards Highway 65 by mid-morning. We may also see some additional
widely scattered convection try and develop early this morning
farther east across central Missouri as short range models
indicate a weak cap in place for elevated parcels.

Precipitation chances this afternoon and this evening then become
a bit more unclear for a couple of reasons. First off, morning
convection may throw out some outflow boundaries which could
refocus convective development in other parts of the Ozarks.
Additionally, models are not indicating any real focusing
mechanisms at this time with the area being in between mid-level
short waves. Given that we will still see large scale lift across
the area with the approach of the main energy, scattered to even
numerous showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible.
Temperatures today will be held down by clouds and precipitation
over many areas. However, areas of central Missouri may be able to
climb into the middle 70s.

By later tonight, another mid-level wave should approach the
region from the southwest. Meanwhile, models develop surface low
pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing it north-
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. These features should
provide additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. While
heavy rainfall will be possible over localized areas, low
confidence in the placement and spatial extent of heavy rainfall
preclude any kind of Flood Watch issuance at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on
Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. More showers and
thunderstorms will therefore be likely. The prospects for severe
storms have waned a bit as appreciable instability may be hard to
come by. We will have to continue to watch the hydro
situation...especially if locations pick up decent rainfall early
this weekend.

We will then get into a northwesterly flow aloft for the early and
middle portions of next work week. Temperatures will be below
normal with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
appearing increasingly likely for Monday night and Tuesday night.
We will have to watch this situation closely as slightly cooler
temperatures may open the door to frost potential. Medium range
models do bring a few ripples through in the northwest flow. Thus,
a shower or two cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

The northwest flow should then lose its grip by later next week
with global models advertising a decent short wave trough sliding
out into the central Plains to end the work week. This type of
regime should promote warmer temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours as there will be
multiple opportunities for showers/storms, though confidence in
exactly where this activity will occur is still low. Axis of
showers and embedded thunder continues to increase across eastern
Oklahoma and this will be the first area of focus. This activity
should continue to expand and flirt with the JLN aerodrome just
prior to daybreak. This activity should stay west of SGF/BBG,
though have kept a mention of VCSH at these locations. Heating
should yield additional chances for scattered showers/storms
across the area through Saturday afternoon, though confidence in
location is too low to include at this time. Finally, yet another
opportunity for rain is possible beginning this evening as a weak
surface wave passes near the area. For the time being, have
covered this with a PROB30, with SGF/BBG in slightly better
position to be affected by this activity. Otherwise, light
southerly winds will continue with brief bouts of MVFR
vis/ceilings with passing showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 180836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the
predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and
tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across
the southern Canadian provinces. This will result in a continued
diffluent upper level flow aloft. With broad mid/upper level
ascent in place, it will be smaller scale features (e.g. mid-level
short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.

The first concern for today will be a mid-level wave currently
moving northeast into southwestern Oklahoma. This wave has
triggered a large corridor of scattered convection from central
Kansas into northeastern Texas. The convection across the southern
Plains is likely being aided by an approaching upper level jet
streak from northern Mexico. Extrapolation of these lifting
mechanisms will bring this corridor of convection into far western
Missouri during the predawn hours...with activity then spreading
towards Highway 65 by mid-morning. We may also see some additional
widely scattered convection try and develop early this morning
farther east across central Missouri as short range models
indicate a weak cap in place for elevated parcels.

Precipitation chances this afternoon and this evening then become
a bit more unclear for a couple of reasons. First off, morning
convection may throw out some outflow boundaries which could
refocus convective development in other parts of the Ozarks.
Additionally, models are not indicating any real focusing
mechanisms at this time with the area being in between mid-level
short waves. Given that we will still see large scale lift across
the area with the approach of the main energy, scattered to even
numerous showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible.
Temperatures today will be held down by clouds and precipitation
over many areas. However, areas of central Missouri may be able to
climb into the middle 70s.

By later tonight, another mid-level wave should approach the
region from the southwest. Meanwhile, models develop surface low
pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing it north-
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. These features should
provide additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. While
heavy rainfall will be possible over localized areas, low
confidence in the placement and spatial extent of heavy rainfall
preclude any kind of Flood Watch issuance at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on
Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. More showers and
thunderstorms will therefore be likely. The prospects for severe
storms have waned a bit as appreciable instability may be hard to
come by. We will have to continue to watch the hydro
situation...especially if locations pick up decent rainfall early
this weekend.

We will then get into a northwesterly flow aloft for the early and
middle portions of next work week. Temperatures will be below
normal with low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
appearing increasingly likely for Monday night and Tuesday night.
We will have to watch this situation closely as slightly cooler
temperatures may open the door to frost potential. Medium range
models do bring a few ripples through in the northwest flow. Thus,
a shower or two cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

The northwest flow should then lose its grip by later next week
with global models advertising a decent short wave trough sliding
out into the central Plains to end the work week. This type of
regime should promote warmer temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as we head towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours as there will be
multiple opportunities for showers/storms, though confidence in
exactly where this activity will occur is still low. Axis of
showers and embedded thunder continues to increase across eastern
Oklahoma and this will be the first area of focus. This activity
should continue to expand and flirt with the JLN aerodrome just
prior to daybreak. This activity should stay west of SGF/BBG,
though have kept a mention of VCSH at these locations. Heating
should yield additional chances for scattered showers/storms
across the area through Saturday afternoon, though confidence in
location is too low to include at this time. Finally, yet another
opportunity for rain is possible beginning this evening as a weak
surface wave passes near the area. For the time being, have
covered this with a PROB30, with SGF/BBG in slightly better
position to be affected by this activity. Otherwise, light
southerly winds will continue with brief bouts of MVFR
vis/ceilings with passing showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 180513 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours as there will be
multiple opportunities for showers/storms, though confidence in
exactly where this activity will occur is still low. Axis of
showers and embedded thunder continues to increase across eastern
Oklahoma and this will be the first area of focus. This activity
should continue to expand and flirt with the JLN aerodrome just
prior to daybreak. This activity should stay west of SGF/BBG,
though have kept a mention of VCSH at these locations. Heating
should yield additional chances for scattered showers/storms
across the area through Saturday afternoon, though confidence in
location is too low to include at this time. Finally, yet another
opportunity for rain is possible beginning this evening as a weak
surface wave passes near the area. For the time being, have
covered this with a PROB30, with SGF/BBG in slightly better
position to be affected by this activity. Otherwise, light
southerly winds will continue with brief bouts of MVFR
vis/ceilings with passing showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 180513 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours as there will be
multiple opportunities for showers/storms, though confidence in
exactly where this activity will occur is still low. Axis of
showers and embedded thunder continues to increase across eastern
Oklahoma and this will be the first area of focus. This activity
should continue to expand and flirt with the JLN aerodrome just
prior to daybreak. This activity should stay west of SGF/BBG,
though have kept a mention of VCSH at these locations. Heating
should yield additional chances for scattered showers/storms
across the area through Saturday afternoon, though confidence in
location is too low to include at this time. Finally, yet another
opportunity for rain is possible beginning this evening as a weak
surface wave passes near the area. For the time being, have
covered this with a PROB30, with SGF/BBG in slightly better
position to be affected by this activity. Otherwise, light
southerly winds will continue with brief bouts of MVFR
vis/ceilings with passing showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 180513 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours as there will be
multiple opportunities for showers/storms, though confidence in
exactly where this activity will occur is still low. Axis of
showers and embedded thunder continues to increase across eastern
Oklahoma and this will be the first area of focus. This activity
should continue to expand and flirt with the JLN aerodrome just
prior to daybreak. This activity should stay west of SGF/BBG,
though have kept a mention of VCSH at these locations. Heating
should yield additional chances for scattered showers/storms
across the area through Saturday afternoon, though confidence in
location is too low to include at this time. Finally, yet another
opportunity for rain is possible beginning this evening as a weak
surface wave passes near the area. For the time being, have
covered this with a PROB30, with SGF/BBG in slightly better
position to be affected by this activity. Otherwise, light
southerly winds will continue with brief bouts of MVFR
vis/ceilings with passing showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 180513 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours as there will be
multiple opportunities for showers/storms, though confidence in
exactly where this activity will occur is still low. Axis of
showers and embedded thunder continues to increase across eastern
Oklahoma and this will be the first area of focus. This activity
should continue to expand and flirt with the JLN aerodrome just
prior to daybreak. This activity should stay west of SGF/BBG,
though have kept a mention of VCSH at these locations. Heating
should yield additional chances for scattered showers/storms
across the area through Saturday afternoon, though confidence in
location is too low to include at this time. Finally, yet another
opportunity for rain is possible beginning this evening as a weak
surface wave passes near the area. For the time being, have
covered this with a PROB30, with SGF/BBG in slightly better
position to be affected by this activity. Otherwise, light
southerly winds will continue with brief bouts of MVFR
vis/ceilings with passing showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 172310
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours. The only
aviation concern will be for scattered convection possibly after
09z tonight through tomorrow morning. Ceilings for the most part
will drop down to between 3k to 4k feet at most terminals. Will
have to watch trends for BBG which that terminal might see MVFR
ceilings by tomorrow morning. Have prob30 and tempo groups
handling the timing of the scattered convection moving in by
tomorrow morning at all sites. Also may see a drop in visibility
with the rain showers and -TSRA briefly down to 5sm at times.
Winds will remain southerly to southeasterly less than 10 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 172310
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours. The only
aviation concern will be for scattered convection possibly after
09z tonight through tomorrow morning. Ceilings for the most part
will drop down to between 3k to 4k feet at most terminals. Will
have to watch trends for BBG which that terminal might see MVFR
ceilings by tomorrow morning. Have prob30 and tempo groups
handling the timing of the scattered convection moving in by
tomorrow morning at all sites. Also may see a drop in visibility
with the rain showers and -TSRA briefly down to 5sm at times.
Winds will remain southerly to southeasterly less than 10 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Pilots can expect primarily VFR but unsettled conditions through
tonight with deteriorating conditions Saturday. A few showers and storms
may impact terminal vicinities through early this evening.
Additional showers will develop late tonight and increase into
Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms along with lower
ceilings will become more widespread Saturday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171804
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The band of showers and thunderstorms that entered southwestern
Missouri and southeastern Kansas this morning had moved farther
into southwestern Missouri at midday. The activity had diminished
in intensity and become more scattered in nature. This convection
appeared to be supported by weak 850-700 MB frontogenesis and
moisture advection. A modestly unstable airmass this afternoon
will support the redevelopment of isolated to scattered convection
mainly for southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Radar
also seemed to detect a mesoscale convective vorticity near the
Kansas and Missouri border north of Joplin. This may induce some
convective development as well across west central Missouri. No
severe weather is expected this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The region saw partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures for the
overnight period. This was due in large part to the upper level
shortwave ridge that was hanging on across the eastern Ozarks.
Overnight temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s as a
result, with some patchy fog developing across the West Plains
area and locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau.

The upper level system across the four corners region of the
southwest was spinning energy into the plains which was aiding in
the continued storm activity across much of Kansas and Oklahoma.

For much of the day today, the energy from the upper level system
will fight the drier air in place under the ridge over the area.
As a result, much of the Ozarks will remain dry for much of today
though cloud cover will increase through out the day.

As the region heads into the overnight hours, rain chances will
spread from the southwest to the northeast across the Ozarks as
the storm system over the southwest begins to push slowly into the
plains. This will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
to the region this evening into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Rain and storm coverage will increase through Saturday morning
becoming widespread by mid morning for all by portions of the
eastern Ozarks. The storm system approaching the Ozarks will take
advantage of ample Gulf moisture as it swings into the plains
Saturday night into early Sunday with showers and storms
continuing and potentially increasing in rainfall intensity during
the overnight hours into Sunday morning.

Models are producing from 1 to 2 inches of QPF across the region
from Saturday into Sunday morning. There may be a brief break in
the rain around sunrise Sunday as the cutoff system is picked up
by the northern stream of the upper level jet and becomes more of
an open wave.

That wave then develops an ever so slight negative tilt as it
proceeds to the east across the Ozarks and brings a surface low
and cold front through the region. Models do still show some cape
and shear in place as the system moves through the region. While
the upper level jet support will be marginal there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

In addition, depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is
at least a limited chance for some localized flooding to occur.
Would like another model run to assess the potential rainfall
though before issuing a watch at this point.

The region will then see a fairly dry and cool period to start
next week as northwesterly flow aloft set up over much of the
CONUS. The split upper level flow will make things messy again by
the middle of next week with additional rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday evening. The end of next week my be a bit drier though
but will depend on which model (GFS or ECMWF) pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Pilots can expect primarily VFR but unsettled conditions through
tonight with deteriorating conditions Saturday. A few showers and storms
may impact terminal vicinities through early this evening.
Additional showers will develop late tonight and increase into
Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms along with lower
ceilings will become more widespread Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171804
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The band of showers and thunderstorms that entered southwestern
Missouri and southeastern Kansas this morning had moved farther
into southwestern Missouri at midday. The activity had diminished
in intensity and become more scattered in nature. This convection
appeared to be supported by weak 850-700 MB frontogenesis and
moisture advection. A modestly unstable airmass this afternoon
will support the redevelopment of isolated to scattered convection
mainly for southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Radar
also seemed to detect a mesoscale convective vorticity near the
Kansas and Missouri border north of Joplin. This may induce some
convective development as well across west central Missouri. No
severe weather is expected this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The region saw partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures for the
overnight period. This was due in large part to the upper level
shortwave ridge that was hanging on across the eastern Ozarks.
Overnight temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s as a
result, with some patchy fog developing across the West Plains
area and locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau.

The upper level system across the four corners region of the
southwest was spinning energy into the plains which was aiding in
the continued storm activity across much of Kansas and Oklahoma.

For much of the day today, the energy from the upper level system
will fight the drier air in place under the ridge over the area.
As a result, much of the Ozarks will remain dry for much of today
though cloud cover will increase through out the day.

As the region heads into the overnight hours, rain chances will
spread from the southwest to the northeast across the Ozarks as
the storm system over the southwest begins to push slowly into the
plains. This will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
to the region this evening into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Rain and storm coverage will increase through Saturday morning
becoming widespread by mid morning for all by portions of the
eastern Ozarks. The storm system approaching the Ozarks will take
advantage of ample Gulf moisture as it swings into the plains
Saturday night into early Sunday with showers and storms
continuing and potentially increasing in rainfall intensity during
the overnight hours into Sunday morning.

Models are producing from 1 to 2 inches of QPF across the region
from Saturday into Sunday morning. There may be a brief break in
the rain around sunrise Sunday as the cutoff system is picked up
by the northern stream of the upper level jet and becomes more of
an open wave.

That wave then develops an ever so slight negative tilt as it
proceeds to the east across the Ozarks and brings a surface low
and cold front through the region. Models do still show some cape
and shear in place as the system moves through the region. While
the upper level jet support will be marginal there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

In addition, depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is
at least a limited chance for some localized flooding to occur.
Would like another model run to assess the potential rainfall
though before issuing a watch at this point.

The region will then see a fairly dry and cool period to start
next week as northwesterly flow aloft set up over much of the
CONUS. The split upper level flow will make things messy again by
the middle of next week with additional rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday evening. The end of next week my be a bit drier though
but will depend on which model (GFS or ECMWF) pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Pilots can expect primarily VFR but unsettled conditions through
tonight with deteriorating conditions Saturday. A few showers and storms
may impact terminal vicinities through early this evening.
Additional showers will develop late tonight and increase into
Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms along with lower
ceilings will become more widespread Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 171059
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The region saw partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures for the
overnight period. This was due in large part to the upper level
shortwave ridge that was hanging on across the eastern Ozarks.
Overnight temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s as a
result, with some patchy fog developing across the West Plains
area and locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau.

The upper level system across the four corners region of the
southwest was spinning energy into the plains which was aiding in
the continued storm activity across much of Kansas and Oklahoma.

For much of the day today, the energy from the upper level system
will fight the drier air in place under the ridge over the area.
As a result, much of the Ozarks will remain dry for much of today
though cloud cover will increase through out the day.

As the region heads into the overnight hours, rain chances will
spread from the southwest to the northeast across the Ozarks as
the storm system over the southwest begins to push slowly into the
plains. This will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
to the region this evening into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Rain and storm coverage will increase through Saturday morning
becoming widespread by mid morning for all by portions of the
eastern Ozarks. The storm system approaching the Ozarks will take
advantage of ample Gulf moisture as it swings into the plains
Saturday night into early Sunday with showers and storms
continuing and potentially increasing in rainfall intensity during
the overnight hours into Sunday morning.

Models are producing from 1 to 2 inches of QPF across the region
from Saturday into Sunday morning. There may be a brief break in
the rain around sunrise Sunday as the cutoff system is picked up
by the northern stream of the upper level jet and becomes more of
an open wave.

That wave then develops an ever so slight negative tilt as it
proceeds to the east across the Ozarks and brings a surface low
and cold front through the region. Models do still show some cape
and shear in place as the system moves through the region. While
the upper level jet support will be marginal there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

In addition, depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is
at least a limited chance for some localized flooding to occur.
Would like another model run to assess the potential rainfall
though before issuing a watch at this point.

The region will then see a fairly dry and cool period to start
next week as northwesterly flow aloft set up over much of the
CONUS. The split upper level flow will make things messy again by
the middle of next week with additional rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday evening. The end of next week my be a bit drier though
but will depend on which model (GFS or ECMWF) pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Patchy areas of fog will remain possible early this morning around
the Branson aerodrome. A weak upper level disturbance is then
expected to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of southern Missouri from late this morning into this
afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with any
thunderstorms. While thunderstorms will likely diminish this
evening, additional activity is then expected to push in from the
west late tonight. We will have to watch for fog potential again
later tonight, but current thinking is that abundant high clouds
should reduce the risk for dense fog. Meanwhile, winds through
tonight will remain light out of the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171059
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The region saw partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures for the
overnight period. This was due in large part to the upper level
shortwave ridge that was hanging on across the eastern Ozarks.
Overnight temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s as a
result, with some patchy fog developing across the West Plains
area and locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau.

The upper level system across the four corners region of the
southwest was spinning energy into the plains which was aiding in
the continued storm activity across much of Kansas and Oklahoma.

For much of the day today, the energy from the upper level system
will fight the drier air in place under the ridge over the area.
As a result, much of the Ozarks will remain dry for much of today
though cloud cover will increase through out the day.

As the region heads into the overnight hours, rain chances will
spread from the southwest to the northeast across the Ozarks as
the storm system over the southwest begins to push slowly into the
plains. This will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
to the region this evening into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Rain and storm coverage will increase through Saturday morning
becoming widespread by mid morning for all by portions of the
eastern Ozarks. The storm system approaching the Ozarks will take
advantage of ample Gulf moisture as it swings into the plains
Saturday night into early Sunday with showers and storms
continuing and potentially increasing in rainfall intensity during
the overnight hours into Sunday morning.

Models are producing from 1 to 2 inches of QPF across the region
from Saturday into Sunday morning. There may be a brief break in
the rain around sunrise Sunday as the cutoff system is picked up
by the northern stream of the upper level jet and becomes more of
an open wave.

That wave then develops an ever so slight negative tilt as it
proceeds to the east across the Ozarks and brings a surface low
and cold front through the region. Models do still show some cape
and shear in place as the system moves through the region. While
the upper level jet support will be marginal there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

In addition, depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is
at least a limited chance for some localized flooding to occur.
Would like another model run to assess the potential rainfall
though before issuing a watch at this point.

The region will then see a fairly dry and cool period to start
next week as northwesterly flow aloft set up over much of the
CONUS. The split upper level flow will make things messy again by
the middle of next week with additional rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday evening. The end of next week my be a bit drier though
but will depend on which model (GFS or ECMWF) pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Patchy areas of fog will remain possible early this morning around
the Branson aerodrome. A weak upper level disturbance is then
expected to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of southern Missouri from late this morning into this
afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with any
thunderstorms. While thunderstorms will likely diminish this
evening, additional activity is then expected to push in from the
west late tonight. We will have to watch for fog potential again
later tonight, but current thinking is that abundant high clouds
should reduce the risk for dense fog. Meanwhile, winds through
tonight will remain light out of the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 170853
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The region saw partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures for the
overnight period. This was due in large part to the upper level
shortwave ridge that was hanging on across the eastern Ozarks.
Overnight temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s as a
result, with some patchy fog developing across the West Plains
area and locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau.

The upper level system across the four corners region of the
southwest was spinning energy into the plains which was aiding in
the continued storm activity across much of Kansas and Oklahoma.

For much of the day today, the energy from the upper level system
will fight the drier air in place under the ridge over the area.
As a result, much of the Ozarks will remain dry for much of today
though cloud cover will increase through out the day.

As the region heads into the overnight hours, rain chances will
spread from the southwest to the northeast across the Ozarks as
the storm system over the southwest begins to push slowly into the
plains. This will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
to the region this evening into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Rain and storm coverage will increase through Saturday morning
becoming widespread by mid morning for all by portions of the
eastern Ozarks. The storm system approaching the Ozarks will take
advantage of ample Gulf moisture as it swings into the plains
Saturday night into early Sunday with showers and storms
continuing and potentially increasing in rainfall intensity during
the overnight hours into Sunday morning.

Models are producing from 1 to 2 inches of QPF across the region
from Saturday into Sunday morning. There may be a brief break in
the rain around sunrise Sunday as the cutoff system is picked up
by the northern stream of the upper level jet and becomes more of
an open wave.

That wave then develops an ever so slight negative tilt as it
proceeds to the east across the Ozarks and brings a surface low
and cold front through the region. Models do still show some cape
and shear in place as the system moves through the region. While
the upper level jet support will be marginal there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

In addition, depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is
at least a limited chance for some localized flooding to occur.
Would like another model run to assess the potential rainfall
though before issuing a watch at this point.

The region will then see a fairly dry and cool period to start
next week as northwesterly flow aloft set up over much of the
CONUS. The split upper level flow will make things messy again by
the middle of next week with additional rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday evening. The end of next week my be a bit drier though
but will depend on which model (GFS or ECMWF) pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Light fog will again be possible late tonight and early Friday
morning. However the presence of high cloud cover should preclude
any dense fog potential. A warm front will then lift towards the
region later Friday into Friday evening and may produce widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR conditions
can be expected with any thunderstorms. Surface winds will remain
light out of the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 170853
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

The region saw partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures for the
overnight period. This was due in large part to the upper level
shortwave ridge that was hanging on across the eastern Ozarks.
Overnight temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s as a
result, with some patchy fog developing across the West Plains
area and locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau.

The upper level system across the four corners region of the
southwest was spinning energy into the plains which was aiding in
the continued storm activity across much of Kansas and Oklahoma.

For much of the day today, the energy from the upper level system
will fight the drier air in place under the ridge over the area.
As a result, much of the Ozarks will remain dry for much of today
though cloud cover will increase through out the day.

As the region heads into the overnight hours, rain chances will
spread from the southwest to the northeast across the Ozarks as
the storm system over the southwest begins to push slowly into the
plains. This will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
to the region this evening into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Rain and storm coverage will increase through Saturday morning
becoming widespread by mid morning for all by portions of the
eastern Ozarks. The storm system approaching the Ozarks will take
advantage of ample Gulf moisture as it swings into the plains
Saturday night into early Sunday with showers and storms
continuing and potentially increasing in rainfall intensity during
the overnight hours into Sunday morning.

Models are producing from 1 to 2 inches of QPF across the region
from Saturday into Sunday morning. There may be a brief break in
the rain around sunrise Sunday as the cutoff system is picked up
by the northern stream of the upper level jet and becomes more of
an open wave.

That wave then develops an ever so slight negative tilt as it
proceeds to the east across the Ozarks and brings a surface low
and cold front through the region. Models do still show some cape
and shear in place as the system moves through the region. While
the upper level jet support will be marginal there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

In addition, depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is
at least a limited chance for some localized flooding to occur.
Would like another model run to assess the potential rainfall
though before issuing a watch at this point.

The region will then see a fairly dry and cool period to start
next week as northwesterly flow aloft set up over much of the
CONUS. The split upper level flow will make things messy again by
the middle of next week with additional rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday evening. The end of next week my be a bit drier though
but will depend on which model (GFS or ECMWF) pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Light fog will again be possible late tonight and early Friday
morning. However the presence of high cloud cover should preclude
any dense fog potential. A warm front will then lift towards the
region later Friday into Friday evening and may produce widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR conditions
can be expected with any thunderstorms. Surface winds will remain
light out of the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 170536
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Tenacious cloud cover was the theme today as stratus was trapped
underneath a layer of warm air that was measured on the 12z RAOB
at 6,000 feet. We also had a disorganized surface pressure
pattern, leading to light and variable winds also helping the
stratus to hang overhead.

For the rest of the afternoon, we think cloud cover will slowly
dissipate as upper level height rises build over southern
Missouri.

This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, most locations should remain dry, especially through
the morning hours. However, rain chances will start to ramp up
across across southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri during
the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water
vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.

Cyclonic flow around this feature will force deeper moisture into
the nation`s midsection through the upcoming weekend. This will
lead to stormy conditions for the Ozarks through at least Sunday
evening.

We don`t think instability levels will be high enough for any
organized severe storms through at least Sunday morning. So on and
off again showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday
morning can be expected.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, there are signals that would
suggest a decent cape - shear combination for organized storms. I
will insert a mention for severe storms for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

In addition to severe storms on Sunday, I will also insert a
limited risk for flooding from Saturday through Sunday night. Soil
moisture conditions are around normal to above normal. Meanwhile
stream flows are also running slightly above normal to normal. We
may even have to consider posting a Flood Watch either tonight or
during tomorrows forecast.

A window for dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday
as northwest flow briefly cleans out our moisture content.
However, stormy conditions once again appears toward the end of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Light fog will again be possible late tonight and early Friday
morning. However the presence of high cloud cover should preclude
any dense fog potential. A warm front will then lift towards the
region later Friday into Friday evening and may produce widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR conditions
can be expected with any thunderstorms. Surface winds will remain
light out of the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 170536
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Tenacious cloud cover was the theme today as stratus was trapped
underneath a layer of warm air that was measured on the 12z RAOB
at 6,000 feet. We also had a disorganized surface pressure
pattern, leading to light and variable winds also helping the
stratus to hang overhead.

For the rest of the afternoon, we think cloud cover will slowly
dissipate as upper level height rises build over southern
Missouri.

This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, most locations should remain dry, especially through
the morning hours. However, rain chances will start to ramp up
across across southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri during
the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water
vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.

Cyclonic flow around this feature will force deeper moisture into
the nation`s midsection through the upcoming weekend. This will
lead to stormy conditions for the Ozarks through at least Sunday
evening.

We don`t think instability levels will be high enough for any
organized severe storms through at least Sunday morning. So on and
off again showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday
morning can be expected.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, there are signals that would
suggest a decent cape - shear combination for organized storms. I
will insert a mention for severe storms for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

In addition to severe storms on Sunday, I will also insert a
limited risk for flooding from Saturday through Sunday night. Soil
moisture conditions are around normal to above normal. Meanwhile
stream flows are also running slightly above normal to normal. We
may even have to consider posting a Flood Watch either tonight or
during tomorrows forecast.

A window for dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday
as northwest flow briefly cleans out our moisture content.
However, stormy conditions once again appears toward the end of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Light fog will again be possible late tonight and early Friday
morning. However the presence of high cloud cover should preclude
any dense fog potential. A warm front will then lift towards the
region later Friday into Friday evening and may produce widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR conditions
can be expected with any thunderstorms. Surface winds will remain
light out of the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 170536
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Tenacious cloud cover was the theme today as stratus was trapped
underneath a layer of warm air that was measured on the 12z RAOB
at 6,000 feet. We also had a disorganized surface pressure
pattern, leading to light and variable winds also helping the
stratus to hang overhead.

For the rest of the afternoon, we think cloud cover will slowly
dissipate as upper level height rises build over southern
Missouri.

This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, most locations should remain dry, especially through
the morning hours. However, rain chances will start to ramp up
across across southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri during
the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water
vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.

Cyclonic flow around this feature will force deeper moisture into
the nation`s midsection through the upcoming weekend. This will
lead to stormy conditions for the Ozarks through at least Sunday
evening.

We don`t think instability levels will be high enough for any
organized severe storms through at least Sunday morning. So on and
off again showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday
morning can be expected.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, there are signals that would
suggest a decent cape - shear combination for organized storms. I
will insert a mention for severe storms for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

In addition to severe storms on Sunday, I will also insert a
limited risk for flooding from Saturday through Sunday night. Soil
moisture conditions are around normal to above normal. Meanwhile
stream flows are also running slightly above normal to normal. We
may even have to consider posting a Flood Watch either tonight or
during tomorrows forecast.

A window for dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday
as northwest flow briefly cleans out our moisture content.
However, stormy conditions once again appears toward the end of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

Light fog will again be possible late tonight and early Friday
morning. However the presence of high cloud cover should preclude
any dense fog potential. A warm front will then lift towards the
region later Friday into Friday evening and may produce widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR conditions
can be expected with any thunderstorms. Surface winds will remain
light out of the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 162320
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Tenacious cloud cover was the theme today as stratus was trapped
underneath a layer of warm air that was measured on the 12z RAOB
at 6,000 feet. We also had a disorganized surface pressure
pattern, leading to light and variable winds also helping the
stratus to hang overhead.

For the rest of the afternoon, we think cloud cover will slowly
dissipate as upper level height rises build over southern
Missouri.

This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, most locations should remain dry, especially through
the morning hours. However, rain chances will start to ramp up
across across southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri during
the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water
vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.

Cyclonic flow around this feature will force deeper moisture into
the nation`s midsection through the upcoming weekend. This will
lead to stormy conditions for the Ozarks through at least Sunday
evening.

We don`t think instability levels will be high enough for any
organized severe storms through at least Sunday morning. So on and
off again showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday
morning can be expected.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, there are signals that would
suggest a decent cape - shear combination for organized storms. I
will insert a mention for severe storms for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

In addition to severe storms on Sunday, I will also insert a
limited risk for flooding from Saturday through Sunday night. Soil
moisture conditions are around normal to above normal. Meanwhile
stream flows are also running slightly above normal to normal. We
may even have to consider posting a Flood Watch either tonight or
during tomorrows forecast.

A window for dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday
as northwest flow briefly cleans out our moisture content.
However, stormy conditions once again appears toward the end of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

Skies have cleared this afternoon and evening, but with little in
the way of dry air moving into the area, some fog development is
expected again tonight. Light but steady southeast winds should
keep visibilities from tanking too much at SGF and JLN, though
complex terrain effects at BBG will increase the chance for IFR
considerably. Of note, some guidance does try to develop low
stratus again tonight, but am inclined to think that afternoon
sunshine resulted in enough mixing to avoid that again tonight.
Still, this is something to keep an eye on heading into the
overnight hours.

Any fog in the morning should dissipate by mid morning Friday,
with high level stratus increasing through the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162320
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Tenacious cloud cover was the theme today as stratus was trapped
underneath a layer of warm air that was measured on the 12z RAOB
at 6,000 feet. We also had a disorganized surface pressure
pattern, leading to light and variable winds also helping the
stratus to hang overhead.

For the rest of the afternoon, we think cloud cover will slowly
dissipate as upper level height rises build over southern
Missouri.

This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, most locations should remain dry, especially through
the morning hours. However, rain chances will start to ramp up
across across southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri during
the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water
vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.

Cyclonic flow around this feature will force deeper moisture into
the nation`s midsection through the upcoming weekend. This will
lead to stormy conditions for the Ozarks through at least Sunday
evening.

We don`t think instability levels will be high enough for any
organized severe storms through at least Sunday morning. So on and
off again showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday
morning can be expected.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, there are signals that would
suggest a decent cape - shear combination for organized storms. I
will insert a mention for severe storms for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

In addition to severe storms on Sunday, I will also insert a
limited risk for flooding from Saturday through Sunday night. Soil
moisture conditions are around normal to above normal. Meanwhile
stream flows are also running slightly above normal to normal. We
may even have to consider posting a Flood Watch either tonight or
during tomorrows forecast.

A window for dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday
as northwest flow briefly cleans out our moisture content.
However, stormy conditions once again appears toward the end of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

Skies have cleared this afternoon and evening, but with little in
the way of dry air moving into the area, some fog development is
expected again tonight. Light but steady southeast winds should
keep visibilities from tanking too much at SGF and JLN, though
complex terrain effects at BBG will increase the chance for IFR
considerably. Of note, some guidance does try to develop low
stratus again tonight, but am inclined to think that afternoon
sunshine resulted in enough mixing to avoid that again tonight.
Still, this is something to keep an eye on heading into the
overnight hours.

Any fog in the morning should dissipate by mid morning Friday,
with high level stratus increasing through the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162320
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Tenacious cloud cover was the theme today as stratus was trapped
underneath a layer of warm air that was measured on the 12z RAOB
at 6,000 feet. We also had a disorganized surface pressure
pattern, leading to light and variable winds also helping the
stratus to hang overhead.

For the rest of the afternoon, we think cloud cover will slowly
dissipate as upper level height rises build over southern
Missouri.

This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, most locations should remain dry, especially through
the morning hours. However, rain chances will start to ramp up
across across southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri during
the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water
vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.

Cyclonic flow around this feature will force deeper moisture into
the nation`s midsection through the upcoming weekend. This will
lead to stormy conditions for the Ozarks through at least Sunday
evening.

We don`t think instability levels will be high enough for any
organized severe storms through at least Sunday morning. So on and
off again showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday
morning can be expected.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, there are signals that would
suggest a decent cape - shear combination for organized storms. I
will insert a mention for severe storms for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

In addition to severe storms on Sunday, I will also insert a
limited risk for flooding from Saturday through Sunday night. Soil
moisture conditions are around normal to above normal. Meanwhile
stream flows are also running slightly above normal to normal. We
may even have to consider posting a Flood Watch either tonight or
during tomorrows forecast.

A window for dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday
as northwest flow briefly cleans out our moisture content.
However, stormy conditions once again appears toward the end of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

Skies have cleared this afternoon and evening, but with little in
the way of dry air moving into the area, some fog development is
expected again tonight. Light but steady southeast winds should
keep visibilities from tanking too much at SGF and JLN, though
complex terrain effects at BBG will increase the chance for IFR
considerably. Of note, some guidance does try to develop low
stratus again tonight, but am inclined to think that afternoon
sunshine resulted in enough mixing to avoid that again tonight.
Still, this is something to keep an eye on heading into the
overnight hours.

Any fog in the morning should dissipate by mid morning Friday,
with high level stratus increasing through the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 162320
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Tenacious cloud cover was the theme today as stratus was trapped
underneath a layer of warm air that was measured on the 12z RAOB
at 6,000 feet. We also had a disorganized surface pressure
pattern, leading to light and variable winds also helping the
stratus to hang overhead.

For the rest of the afternoon, we think cloud cover will slowly
dissipate as upper level height rises build over southern
Missouri.

This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

For Friday, most locations should remain dry, especially through
the morning hours. However, rain chances will start to ramp up
across across southeast Kansas and far southern Missouri during
the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water
vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.

Cyclonic flow around this feature will force deeper moisture into
the nation`s midsection through the upcoming weekend. This will
lead to stormy conditions for the Ozarks through at least Sunday
evening.

We don`t think instability levels will be high enough for any
organized severe storms through at least Sunday morning. So on and
off again showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday
morning can be expected.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, there are signals that would
suggest a decent cape - shear combination for organized storms. I
will insert a mention for severe storms for Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

In addition to severe storms on Sunday, I will also insert a
limited risk for flooding from Saturday through Sunday night. Soil
moisture conditions are around normal to above normal. Meanwhile
stream flows are also running slightly above normal to normal. We
may even have to consider posting a Flood Watch either tonight or
during tomorrows forecast.

A window for dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday
as northwest flow briefly cleans out our moisture content.
However, stormy conditions once again appears toward the end of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

Skies have cleared this afternoon and evening, but with little in
the way of dry air moving into the area, some fog development is
expected again tonight. Light but steady southeast winds should
keep visibilities from tanking too much at SGF and JLN, though
complex terrain effects at BBG will increase the chance for IFR
considerably. Of note, some guidance does try to develop low
stratus again tonight, but am inclined to think that afternoon
sunshine resulted in enough mixing to avoid that again tonight.
Still, this is something to keep an eye on heading into the
overnight hours.

Any fog in the morning should dissipate by mid morning Friday,
with high level stratus increasing through the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell








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