000
FXUS63 KSGF 260442
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

REMNANTS FROM SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF MCS BROUGHT A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLIER TODAY...BUT
THIS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WITH THE MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR THIS EVENING...CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AGAIN TONIGHT...ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
WITH REMNANTS AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE INSTABILITY
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE VICINITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH UPPER
TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST FROM THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME GOOD JET STRUCTURE WITH IT AND WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BEST
ENERGY TO THE WEST AND LIFTING IT NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HAVE STILL TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AT THE
SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND BE
MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KSGF 252329
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

REMNANTS FROM SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF MCS BROUGHT A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLIER TODAY...BUT
THIS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WITH THE MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR THIS EVENING...CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AGAIN TONIGHT...ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
WITH REMNANTS AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE INSTABILITY
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE VICINITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH UPPER
TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST FROM THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME GOOD JET STRUCTURE WITH IT AND WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BEST
ENERGY TO THE WEST AND LIFTING IT NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HAVE STILL TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY
MONITORING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO THIS AREA BEFORE WE BEGIN TO LOSE OUR
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING.

THAT BRINGS US THEN TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...COULD HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...MODELS HAVE IT INITIATING
NORTH AND WEST OF HERE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN ANY ONE LOCATION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AS FOR SUNDAY...WHILE CHANCES LOOK BETTER...STILL EXPECT JUST
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...GAEDE

000
FXUS63 KSGF 251916
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
216 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

REMNANTS FROM SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF MCS BROUGHT A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLIER TODAY...BUT
THIS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WITH THE MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR THIS EVENING...CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AGAIN TONIGHT...ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
WITH REMNANTS AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE INSTABILITY
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE VICINITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH UPPER
TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST FROM THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME GOOD JET STRUCTURE WITH IT AND WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BEST
ENERGY TO THE WEST AND LIFTING IT NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HAVE STILL TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CAN EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PASSING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
TODAY...MAINTAINING NICE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SOUTH BREEZES AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
OZARKS.

SAFE TRAVELS...AND HAVE A GREAT MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND !

CRAMER


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...CRAMER

000
FXUS63 KSGF 251731
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE
CWA.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW/WAA HAS RESULTED IN RATHER
MILD CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...WITH
READINGS ONLY DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS OF 2 AM.  FURTHER
EAST...WHERE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE...MORNING
LOWS DROPPED INTO THE 40S.

ANOTHER WARM AND OVERALL PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 80S. MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY...BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE THE CONVECTIVE
REMNANTS/MCV ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA MAY CLIP THE AREA.  AGAIN
THOUGH...MOST PLACES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

A FEW SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
TONIGHT...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DEVELOPS FOR
SUNDAY.  THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...AS
TWO DISTINCT FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY.  THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MCV TO DROP SOUTH FROM NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.  WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SUCH
MCS-INDUCED FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY FICKLE IN "MODEL WORLD".  THE
OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL VORT THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS THE LAST DAY OR TWO.  IT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME INTO ARKANSAS...AND THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS VORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET
OFF SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  STILL DON`T THINK
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WASH OUT MOST HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PLANS...BUT ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE
RAIN/LIGHTNING RISK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS A BIT NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AS THE POTENTIAL IS
SHUNTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A SEVERAL DAY LONG STRETCH OF GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE SHORTENED
WORKWEEK...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.  DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAPPING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE DAY
6/7 TIMEFRAME...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST AND
HEIGHT FALLS START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SUITE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THAT SAID...THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE BROAD AGREEMENT IN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE END TO THE
MONTH OF MAY AND START TO JUNE...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CAN EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PASSING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
TODAY...MAINTAINING NICE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SOUTH BREEZES AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
OZARKS.

SAFE TRAVELS...AND HAVE A GREAT MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND !

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...CRAMER

000
FXUS63 KSGF 251119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS HAS VEERED ENOUGH
TO INCREASE OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ELEVATED
PARCELS...900MB AND ABOVE...ARE UNCAPPED (WITH ELEVATED CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR SO). THIS WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. TODAY
WILL BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT AS THIS ACTIVITY WILL HANG AROUND
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST. A DECENT DOWNPOUR OF RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (JLN RECORDED TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT A HALF HOURS TIME). COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BOUNDARIES LINGER FROM THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY. ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT...PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE
CWA.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW/WAA HAS RESULTED IN RATHER
MILD CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...WITH
READINGS ONLY DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS OF 2 AM.  FURTHER
EAST...WHERE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE...MORNING
LOWS DROPPED INTO THE 40S.

ANOTHER WARM AND OVERALL PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 80S. MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY...BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE THE CONVECTIVE
REMNANTS/MCV ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA MAY CLIP THE AREA.  AGAIN
THOUGH...MOST PLACES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

A FEW SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
TONIGHT...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DEVELOPS FOR
SUNDAY.  THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...AS
TWO DISTINCT FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY.  THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MCV TO DROP SOUTH FROM NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.  WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SUCH
MCS-INDUCED FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY FICKLE IN "MODEL WORLD".  THE
OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL VORT THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS THE LAST DAY OR TWO.  IT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME INTO ARKANSAS...AND THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS VORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET
OFF SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  STILL DON`T THINK
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WASH OUT MOST HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PLANS...BUT ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE
RAIN/LIGHTNING RISK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS A BIT NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AS THE POTENTIAL IS
SHUNTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A SEVERAL DAY LONG STRETCH OF GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE SHORTENED
WORKWEEK...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.  DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAPPING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE DAY
6/7 TIMEFRAME...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST AND
HEIGHT FALLS START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SUITE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THAT SAID...THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE BROAD AGREEMENT IN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE END TO THE
MONTH OF MAY AND START TO JUNE...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

OVERALL...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH A LOW RISK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GAGAN
SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...GAGAN

000
FXUS63 KSGF 250736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE
CWA.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW/WAA HAS RESULTED IN RATHER
MILD CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...WITH
READINGS ONLY DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS OF 2 AM.  FURTHER
EAST...WHERE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE...MORNING
LOWS DROPPED INTO THE 40S.

ANOTHER WARM AND OVERALL PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 80S. MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY...BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE THE CONVECTIVE
REMNANTS/MCV ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA MAY CLIP THE AREA.  AGAIN
THOUGH...MOST PLACES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

A FEW SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
TONIGHT...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DEVELOPS FOR
SUNDAY.  THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...AS
TWO DISTINCT FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY.  THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MCV TO DROP SOUTH FROM NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.  WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SUCH
MCS-INDUCED FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY FICKLE IN "MODEL WORLD".  THE
OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL VORT THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS THE LAST DAY OR TWO.  IT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME INTO ARKANSAS...AND THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS VORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET
OFF SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  STILL DON`T THINK
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WASH OUT MOST HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PLANS...BUT ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE
RAIN/LIGHTNING RISK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS A BIT NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AS THE POTENTIAL IS
SHUNTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A SEVERAL DAY LONG STRETCH OF GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE SHORTENED
WORKWEEK...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.  DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CAPPING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE DAY
6/7 TIMEFRAME...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST AND
HEIGHT FALLS START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SUITE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THAT SAID...THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE BROAD AGREEMENT IN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE END TO THE
MONTH OF MAY AND START TO JUNE...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AND AFTERNOON
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POSSIBLY
BUILD UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOCALIZED.

OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD IMPACT
ESPECIALLY THE JOPLIN TERMINAL EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KSGF 250432
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP IN THE PLAINS TO PROVIDE SOME
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE...AND
THEN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD TAKE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY INTO OUR CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES BY 11-12Z TIME FRAME.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS UNTIL THEN AND REDUCED POPS ON SATURDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT ON CONVECTION MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
THINK BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS A BIT AND WE GET SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH BETTER CHANCES
OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY WITH ANY REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AND AFTERNOON
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POSSIBLY
BUILD UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOCALIZED.

OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD IMPACT
ESPECIALLY THE JOPLIN TERMINAL EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KSGF 242313
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP IN THE PLAINS TO PROVIDE SOME
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE...AND
THEN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD TAKE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY INTO OUR CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES BY 11-12Z TIME FRAME.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS UNTIL THEN AND REDUCED POPS ON SATURDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT ON CONVECTION MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
THINK BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS A BIT AND WE GET SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH BETTER CHANCES
OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY WITH ANY REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT VEERING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE STORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA COULD PRODUCE
BROKEN VFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...GAEDE

000
FXUS63 KSGF 241922
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP IN THE PLAINS TO PROVIDE SOME
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE...AND
THEN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD TAKE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY INTO OUR CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES BY 11-12Z TIME FRAME.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS UNTIL THEN AND REDUCED POPS ON SATURDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT ON CONVECTION MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
THINK BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS A BIT AND WE GET SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH BETTER CHANCES
OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY WITH ANY REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MIDDAY. INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING THROUGH THE SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...GRIFFIN

000
FXUS63 KSGF 241659
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO
THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S (AS OF 2 AM) SO FAR
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.  READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS AREAS EAST OF U.S. 65 THIS MORNING...WITH MORE MILD
CONDITIONS OUT WEST...WHERE LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY...AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.  THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.  AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THE AXIS OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS RESULTED
IN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION.  AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST WAA FOCUS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SGF CWA...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE VEERING OF THE
LLJ AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
WITH TIME INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY
NORTH OF I-44 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE MOST
PART BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  A FEW SCATTERED STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
TERRIBLY WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY.  AS
SUCH...MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  THAT SAID...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN A MORE GENERAL FASHION
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A FEW
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.  EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
AREAS TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY...THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR A DECENT DAY FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND ACTIVITIES.

WARMER MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FOR MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SLOWLY SHIFTING
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY CAPPED.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS HELPS TO AMPLIFY THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AROUND DAY 7...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MIDDAY. INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING THROUGH THE SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...GRIFFIN

000
FXUS63 KSGF 241131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO
THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S (AS OF 2 AM) SO FAR
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.  READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS AREAS EAST OF U.S. 65 THIS MORNING...WITH MORE MILD
CONDITIONS OUT WEST...WHERE LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY...AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.  THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.  AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THE AXIS OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS RESULTED
IN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION.  AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST WAA FOCUS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SGF CWA...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE VEERING OF THE
LLJ AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
WITH TIME INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY
NORTH OF I-44 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE MOST
PART BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  A FEW SCATTERED STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
TERRIBLY WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY.  AS
SUCH...MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  THAT SAID...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN A MORE GENERAL FASHION
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A FEW
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.  EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
AREAS TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY...THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR A DECENT DAY FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND ACTIVITIES.

WARMER MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FOR MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SLOWLY SHIFTING
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY CAPPED.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS HELPS TO AMPLIFY THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AROUND DAY 7...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER REGIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH A SLOW VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED CIRRUS COVERAGE...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO REFINE THE
RISK.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...GAGAN

000
FXUS63 KSGF 240759
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO
THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S (AS OF 2 AM) SO FAR
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.  READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS AREAS EAST OF U.S. 65 THIS MORNING...WITH MORE MILD
CONDITIONS OUT WEST...WHERE LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY...AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.  THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.  AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THE AXIS OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS RESULTED
IN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION.  AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST WAA FOCUS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SGF CWA...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE VEERING OF THE
LLJ AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
WITH TIME INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY
NORTH OF I-44 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE MOST
PART BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  A FEW SCATTERED STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
TERRIBLY WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY.  AS
SUCH...MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  THAT SAID...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN A MORE GENERAL FASHION
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A FEW
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.  EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
AREAS TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY...THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR A DECENT DAY FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND ACTIVITIES.

WARMER MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FOR MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SLOWLY SHIFTING
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY CAPPED.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS HELPS TO AMPLIFY THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AROUND DAY 7...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KSGF 240505
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 8OS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KSGF 240011
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 8OS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER
TEH REGION BUT WILL NOT IMPACT AREA TERMINALS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...HATCH

000
FXUS63 KSGF 231953
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 8OS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM MCS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...LINDENBERG

000
FXUS63 KSGF 231712
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.

LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM MCS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG

000
FXUS63 KSGF 231052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.

LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KT.

AFTER 07Z TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE JLN TERMINAL AREA. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATED A INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS TSRA POTENTIAL ATTM IS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION IN THE TAF. IF
CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL IN TSRA INCREASES...LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE THIS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL

000
FXUS63 KSGF 230754
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.

LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT
MORE SO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...FOSTER