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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260042
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Low Temperatures Tonight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Temperatures have quickly tanked early this evening given clear
skies, light winds, and low dew points. We have lowered "overnight
lows" to account for this. Temperatures over many locations will
actually steady off and start to rise later this evening as clouds
increase and winds begin to increase out of the south. Thus,
actual low temperatures over many areas will occur this evening.

Updates already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260042
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Low Temperatures Tonight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Temperatures have quickly tanked early this evening given clear
skies, light winds, and low dew points. We have lowered "overnight
lows" to account for this. Temperatures over many locations will
actually steady off and start to rise later this evening as clouds
increase and winds begin to increase out of the south. Thus,
actual low temperatures over many areas will occur this evening.

Updates already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 252355
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252355
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252139
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Chance of Light Snow Wednesday then Quiet Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252139
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Chance of Light Snow Wednesday then Quiet Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251155
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Surface high pressure across the plains will keep flight
conditions fair into this evening with northwesterly surface
winds becoming southerly through the day. High overcast will
overspread the region overnight and through early Wednesday
morning.

an approaching low level jet will allow for low level wind shear
to develop for the Joplin terminal after 09z Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch










000
FXUS63 KSGF 251155
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Surface high pressure across the plains will keep flight
conditions fair into this evening with northwesterly surface
winds becoming southerly through the day. High overcast will
overspread the region overnight and through early Wednesday
morning.

an approaching low level jet will allow for low level wind shear
to develop for the Joplin terminal after 09z Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 250914
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening with
increasing high clouds late in the period. Winds will start off
light out of the west and will gradually shift around to the
south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann









000
FXUS63 KSGF 250545
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening with
increasing high clouds late in the period. Winds will start off
light out of the west and will gradually shift around to the
south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250545
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening with
increasing high clouds late in the period. Winds will start off
light out of the west and will gradually shift around to the
south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 457 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions and mainly clear skies will persist through
Tuesday. Winds will be light out of the west and will gradually
back to the southwest Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 242052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 242052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Northwest winds will be a little breezy today, with gusts up to 30
mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Northwest winds will be a little breezy today, with gusts up to 30
mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KSGF 241142
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over the Great Lakes
will continue to move northeast. Gusty west winds will continue
with a bit of an uptick in gusts with some daytime heating/mixing.
Winds will diminish toward sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes
and the lower atmosphere/boundary layer decouples. Some
stratocumulus may affect the area during the day (16z-23z) with
the best chances for ceilings at KSGF, but will keep tafs vfr with
no ceilings for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241142
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over the Great Lakes
will continue to move northeast. Gusty west winds will continue
with a bit of an uptick in gusts with some daytime heating/mixing.
Winds will diminish toward sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes
and the lower atmosphere/boundary layer decouples. Some
stratocumulus may affect the area during the day (16z-23z) with
the best chances for ceilings at KSGF, but will keep tafs vfr with
no ceilings for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 240835
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240835
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 240531
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are
warm in the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow
mix will be along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip
exits the area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on
grassy areas along and north of Highway 54 across central
Missouri. But again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240531
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are
warm in the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow
mix will be along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip
exits the area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on
grassy areas along and north of Highway 54 across central
Missouri. But again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 232043
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Turning Windy and Colder Tonight and Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are warm in
the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow mix will be
along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip exits the
area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on grassy
areas along and north of Highway 54 across central Missouri. But
again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 232043
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Turning Windy and Colder Tonight and Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are warm in
the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow mix will be
along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip exits the
area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on grassy
areas along and north of Highway 54 across central Missouri. But
again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231642 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231642 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 231159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 230927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 230927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230307
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann








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