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000
FXUS63 KSGF 292343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We continue to see a gradual weakening trend with scattered
convection across most of our forecast area with loss of peak heating and
weak to nil surface convergence. Stronger cluster of storms over
northeast Arkansas will be clipping Oregon County and maybe
southeast Shannon County over the next few hours. So I think the
precipitation probability trend of higher east/lower west still
works for this evening.

Looking upstream...seeing a bit of an uptick in convection over
eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma possibly aided by shortwave
disturbance moving northward from the Red River Valley. Also...
a fairly decent shortwave over north central Colorado is making
steady east-southeast progress and could kick off some storms over
our western counties by around 10z (5 AM) in the vicinity of the
weak front which should end up over our nw counties Sat. Morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Following current radar trends...will keep vicinity showers around
Joplin and Branson for the first couple of hours. Otherwise expect
a bit of a break in precip near the airports until early Saturday
morning. An upper level disturbance over north central Colorado
this evening will drop southeast across northern Kansas and likely
spark a few showers and storms near the front across eastern KS.

For the time being...will continue VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KSGF 292343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We continue to see a gradual weakening trend with scattered
convection across most of our forecast area with loss of peak heating and
weak to nil surface convergence. Stronger cluster of storms over
northeast Arkansas will be clipping Oregon County and maybe
southeast Shannon County over the next few hours. So I think the
precipitation probability trend of higher east/lower west still
works for this evening.

Looking upstream...seeing a bit of an uptick in convection over
eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma possibly aided by shortwave
disturbance moving northward from the Red River Valley. Also...
a fairly decent shortwave over north central Colorado is making
steady east-southeast progress and could kick off some storms over
our western counties by around 10z (5 AM) in the vicinity of the
weak front which should end up over our nw counties Sat. Morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Following current radar trends...will keep vicinity showers around
Joplin and Branson for the first couple of hours. Otherwise expect
a bit of a break in precip near the airports until early Saturday
morning. An upper level disturbance over north central Colorado
this evening will drop southeast across northern Kansas and likely
spark a few showers and storms near the front across eastern KS.

For the time being...will continue VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291200
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Pilots can expect increasing clouds and shower activity today and
tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop from the
southwest during the day which may lower ceilings and visibility
to near MVFR category for brief intervals. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail despite the showers and clouds. Will have
to monitor for patchy low clouds and fog tonight. Marginal low
level wind shear may develop late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291200
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Pilots can expect increasing clouds and shower activity today and
tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop from the
southwest during the day which may lower ceilings and visibility
to near MVFR category for brief intervals. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail despite the showers and clouds. Will have
to monitor for patchy low clouds and fog tonight. Marginal low
level wind shear may develop late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Much Needed Rainfall for the Missouri Ozarks Today Through Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Much Needed Rainfall for the Missouri Ozarks Today Through Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290410
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290410
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 282335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected through
late tonight. A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will
approach the region from the west late tonight and then move across
the taf sites on Saturday. Rain chances will increase after 12z-15z
Saturday from west to east and brought tempo/categorical wording
into the terminals for much of the day Saturday. A few of the
Meso-Models are indicating a break later in the afternoon at KJLN
and thus did back off to VCTS. Instability does increase later in the
taf period, especially affecting the KSGF and KBBG sites and did
mention thunder. MVFR ceilings possible within convective elements,
but for now kept VFR ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected through
late tonight. A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will
approach the region from the west late tonight and then move across
the taf sites on Saturday. Rain chances will increase after 12z-15z
Saturday from west to east and brought tempo/categorical wording
into the terminals for much of the day Saturday. A few of the
Meso-Models are indicating a break later in the afternoon at KJLN
and thus did back off to VCTS. Instability does increase later in the
taf period, especially affecting the KSGF and KBBG sites and did
mention thunder. MVFR ceilings possible within convective elements,
but for now kept VFR ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding








000
FXUS63 KSGF 282003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period. A sfc front and upper level disturbance will approach
the region from the west late in the taf period with increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period. A sfc front and upper level disturbance will approach
the region from the west late in the taf period with increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period. A sfc front and upper level disturbance will approach
the region from the west late in the taf period with increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period. A sfc front and upper level disturbance will approach
the region from the west late in the taf period with increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281055
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light south-southeast
winds between 5 to 10 knots can be expected with a few clouds
around 5k feet by midday and afternoon. Will hold off on any
convection in the TAFs today except for JLN...will mention a
PROB30 group for TS and CB by early tomorrow morning after 09z.
Otherwise no aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281055
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light south-southeast
winds between 5 to 10 knots can be expected with a few clouds
around 5k feet by midday and afternoon. Will hold off on any
convection in the TAFs today except for JLN...will mention a
PROB30 group for TS and CB by early tomorrow morning after 09z.
Otherwise no aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280817
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
317 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Scattered convection finally diminishing across the area and
should see VFR conditions through the remainder of the period.
Light winds overnight will become southerly during the morning
through the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280817
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
317 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Scattered convection finally diminishing across the area and
should see VFR conditions through the remainder of the period.
Light winds overnight will become southerly during the morning
through the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 280457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon and
early evening hours. With mixed layer capes running about 2000 -
2500 j/kg, a few severe wind gusts are likely with the stronger
updrafts. This evening`s rain chances should completely end by 930
or 10pm.

We barely touched 100 on our heat index here in Springfield this
afternoon, however, cloud cover, along with the gradual break
down of the summertime high, allowed for slightly cooler
temperatures today.

With the summertime high breaking down further tomorrow, we have
decided to not extend the Heat Advisory at this time. The midnight
shift can take another look at it tonight, just in case one is
needed. The ongoing heat wave is finally about over.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

As a much anticipated storm system approaches from the west on
Friday, so shall the rainfall. Perhaps Friday into Saturday could
be the best signal we`ve seen for more than a month for widespread
rainfall.

These showers and thunderstorms could pose concerns for boaters,
campers, floaters, and anyone that plans to participate in outdoor
activities throughout the holiday weekend.

We`re not talking about a complete washout through the weekend,
however, hit and miss thunderstorms will need to be monitored, and
it`s associated impacts revolving around cloud to ground
lightning. Weak wind shear and low confidence in instability
levels kept us from mentioning a severe weather risk at this time.
This could certainly change with future model analysis.

Cloud cover and precipitation will bring temperatures back into
the 70s and 80s on an afternoon basis Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to around 70.

Additional thunderstorms can not be ruled on Monday (Labor day).
The region will be underneath the main belt of westerlies,
meanwhile, a surface front could exist somewhere near the Ozarks
region, providing a trigger for additional convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Scattered convection finally diminishing across the area and
should see VFR conditions through the remainder of the period.
Light winds overnight will become southerly during the morning
through the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 280457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon and
early evening hours. With mixed layer capes running about 2000 -
2500 j/kg, a few severe wind gusts are likely with the stronger
updrafts. This evening`s rain chances should completely end by 930
or 10pm.

We barely touched 100 on our heat index here in Springfield this
afternoon, however, cloud cover, along with the gradual break
down of the summertime high, allowed for slightly cooler
temperatures today.

With the summertime high breaking down further tomorrow, we have
decided to not extend the Heat Advisory at this time. The midnight
shift can take another look at it tonight, just in case one is
needed. The ongoing heat wave is finally about over.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

As a much anticipated storm system approaches from the west on
Friday, so shall the rainfall. Perhaps Friday into Saturday could
be the best signal we`ve seen for more than a month for widespread
rainfall.

These showers and thunderstorms could pose concerns for boaters,
campers, floaters, and anyone that plans to participate in outdoor
activities throughout the holiday weekend.

We`re not talking about a complete washout through the weekend,
however, hit and miss thunderstorms will need to be monitored, and
it`s associated impacts revolving around cloud to ground
lightning. Weak wind shear and low confidence in instability
levels kept us from mentioning a severe weather risk at this time.
This could certainly change with future model analysis.

Cloud cover and precipitation will bring temperatures back into
the 70s and 80s on an afternoon basis Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to around 70.

Additional thunderstorms can not be ruled on Monday (Labor day).
The region will be underneath the main belt of westerlies,
meanwhile, a surface front could exist somewhere near the Ozarks
region, providing a trigger for additional convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Scattered convection finally diminishing across the area and
should see VFR conditions through the remainder of the period.
Light winds overnight will become southerly during the morning
through the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272239
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon and
early evening hours. With mixed layer capes running about 2000 -
2500 j/kg, a few severe wind gusts are likely with the stronger
updrafts. This evening`s rain chances should completely end by 930
or 10pm.

We barely touched 100 on our heat index here in Springfield this
afternoon, however, cloud cover, along with the gradual break
down of the summertime high, allowed for slightly cooler
temperatures today.

With the summertime high breaking down further tomorrow, we have
decided to not extend the Heat Advisory at this time. The midnight
shift can take another look at it tonight, just in case one is
needed. The ongoing heat wave is finally about over.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

As a much anticipated storm system approaches from the west on
Friday, so shall the rainfall. Perhaps Friday into Saturday could
be the best signal we`ve seen for more than a month for widespread
rainfall.

These showers and thunderstorms could pose concerns for boaters,
campers, floaters, and anyone that plans to participate in outdoor
activities throughout the holiday weekend.

We`re not talking about a complete washout through the weekend,
however, hit and miss thunderstorms will need to be monitored, and
it`s associated impacts revolving around cloud to ground
lightning. Weak wind shear and low confidence in instability
levels kept us from mentioning a severe weather risk at this time.
This could certainly change with future model analysis.

Cloud cover and precipitation will bring temperatures back into
the 70s and 80s on an afternoon basis Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to around 70.

Additional thunderstorms can not be ruled on Monday (Labor day).
The region will be underneath the main belt of westerlies,
meanwhile, a surface front could exist somewhere near the Ozarks
region, providing a trigger for additional convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered
convection ongoing across the area enough to warrant VCTS through
01z, but not looking at high enough probabilities for a tempo
group at any site at this point. Convection should end by 01-02z
this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KSGF 272239
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon and
early evening hours. With mixed layer capes running about 2000 -
2500 j/kg, a few severe wind gusts are likely with the stronger
updrafts. This evening`s rain chances should completely end by 930
or 10pm.

We barely touched 100 on our heat index here in Springfield this
afternoon, however, cloud cover, along with the gradual break
down of the summertime high, allowed for slightly cooler
temperatures today.

With the summertime high breaking down further tomorrow, we have
decided to not extend the Heat Advisory at this time. The midnight
shift can take another look at it tonight, just in case one is
needed. The ongoing heat wave is finally about over.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

As a much anticipated storm system approaches from the west on
Friday, so shall the rainfall. Perhaps Friday into Saturday could
be the best signal we`ve seen for more than a month for widespread
rainfall.

These showers and thunderstorms could pose concerns for boaters,
campers, floaters, and anyone that plans to participate in outdoor
activities throughout the holiday weekend.

We`re not talking about a complete washout through the weekend,
however, hit and miss thunderstorms will need to be monitored, and
it`s associated impacts revolving around cloud to ground
lightning. Weak wind shear and low confidence in instability
levels kept us from mentioning a severe weather risk at this time.
This could certainly change with future model analysis.

Cloud cover and precipitation will bring temperatures back into
the 70s and 80s on an afternoon basis Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to around 70.

Additional thunderstorms can not be ruled on Monday (Labor day).
The region will be underneath the main belt of westerlies,
meanwhile, a surface front could exist somewhere near the Ozarks
region, providing a trigger for additional convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered
convection ongoing across the area enough to warrant VCTS through
01z, but not looking at high enough probabilities for a tempo
group at any site at this point. Convection should end by 01-02z
this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE EXTENDED...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon and
early evening hours. With mixed layer capes running about 2000 -
2500 j/kg, a few severe wind gusts are likely with the stronger
updrafts. This evening`s rain chances should completely end by 930
or 10pm.

We barely touched 100 on our heat index here in Springfield this
afternoon, however, cloud cover, along with the gradual break
down of the summertime high, allowed for slightly cooler
temperatures today.

With the summertime high breaking down further tomorrow, we have
decided to not extend the Heat Advisory at this time. The midnight
shift can take another look at it tonight, just in case one is
needed. The ongoing heat wave is finally about over.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

As a much anticipated storm system approaches from the west on
Friday, so shall the rainfall. Perhaps Friday into Saturday could
be the best signal we`ve seen for more than a month for widespread
rainfall.

These showers and thunderstorms could pose concerns for boaters,
campers, floaters, and anyone that plans to participate in outdoor
activities throughout the holiday weekend.

We`re not talking about a complete washout through the weekend,
however, hit and miss thunderstorms will need to be monitored, and
it`s associated impacts revolving around cloud to ground
lightning. Weak wind shear and low confidence in instability
levels kept us from mentioning a severe weather risk at this time.
This could certainly change with future model analysis.

Cloud cover and precipitation will bring temperatures back into
the 70s and 80s on an afternoon basis Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to around 70.

Additional thunderstorms can not be ruled on Monday (Labor day).
The region will be underneath the main belt of westerlies,
meanwhile, a surface front could exist somewhere near the Ozarks
region, providing a trigger for additional convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Satellite imagery trends show a
blossoming cumulus field behind an outflow boundary along and north
of Hwy 54 and over southern MO along and south of I-44. Modified
12z KSGF sounding supports continued development of slow moving,
high based pulse convection, similar to yesterday. Strong winds
and hail will occur with or in the vicinity of stronger storms.
Thunderstorm coverage should gradually decrease after 28/0000z-7
pm CDT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 272008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE EXTENDED...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon and
early evening hours. With mixed layer capes running about 2000 -
2500 j/kg, a few severe wind gusts are likely with the stronger
updrafts. This evening`s rain chances should completely end by 930
or 10pm.

We barely touched 100 on our heat index here in Springfield this
afternoon, however, cloud cover, along with the gradual break
down of the summertime high, allowed for slightly cooler
temperatures today.

With the summertime high breaking down further tomorrow, we have
decided to not extend the Heat Advisory at this time. The midnight
shift can take another look at it tonight, just in case one is
needed. The ongoing heat wave is finally about over.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

As a much anticipated storm system approaches from the west on
Friday, so shall the rainfall. Perhaps Friday into Saturday could
be the best signal we`ve seen for more than a month for widespread
rainfall.

These showers and thunderstorms could pose concerns for boaters,
campers, floaters, and anyone that plans to participate in outdoor
activities throughout the holiday weekend.

We`re not talking about a complete washout through the weekend,
however, hit and miss thunderstorms will need to be monitored, and
it`s associated impacts revolving around cloud to ground
lightning. Weak wind shear and low confidence in instability
levels kept us from mentioning a severe weather risk at this time.
This could certainly change with future model analysis.

Cloud cover and precipitation will bring temperatures back into
the 70s and 80s on an afternoon basis Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to around 70.

Additional thunderstorms can not be ruled on Monday (Labor day).
The region will be underneath the main belt of westerlies,
meanwhile, a surface front could exist somewhere near the Ozarks
region, providing a trigger for additional convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Satellite imagery trends show a
blossoming cumulus field behind an outflow boundary along and north
of Hwy 54 and over southern MO along and south of I-44. Modified
12z KSGF sounding supports continued development of slow moving,
high based pulse convection, similar to yesterday. Strong winds
and hail will occur with or in the vicinity of stronger storms.
Thunderstorm coverage should gradually decrease after 28/0000z-7
pm CDT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday Night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning compared to this time
yesterday morning. Widely scattered convection dissipated shortly
before midnight, leaving a mainly clear sky in its wake.

Today will be similar to yesterday. Mainly clear to start the day,
with another round of scattered storms expected during the
afternoon. Air temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower this
afternoon, however, an increase in dew points will keep heat index
values in the 98F to 105F range. As a result, the heat advisory
remains in effect into early this evening. Like yesterday, shear
will be low and MUCAPE will be large, so a few pulse severe storms
will be possible. Not quite sure we`ll see a repeat performance of
the golf ball hail like we saw in Eldorado Springs yesterday, but
a few storms with quarter sized hail and localized downburst winds
in excess of 60 mph are plausible. Storms should subside after
sunset.

Thursday looks to be a more quiet day, and still hot as the upper
level ridge gives one last surge ahead of an incoming trough that
should arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Will keep an eye
on the need to extend the heat advisory. At this juncture, an
extension may not be needed as dew points look to mix out during
the afternoon. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, the better chances look
to be to our north and east.

As mentioned above, a weak trough will enter from the west
beginning Friday. Rain chances will gradually enter from west to
east Friday into Friday night, and this looks to be our best
chance for a more widespread brand of rain. Increase in clouds
and rain chances will result in a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs
for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The shortwave will be moving across the Midwest on Saturday with
likely precip chances across the Missouri Ozarks. Anyone with
outdoor activities will need to monitor later forecast and have a
back up plan around thunderstorms. Folks out on the water...area
lakes and rivers will need to watch out for the lightning on
Saturday. Followed the ECMWF more with regards to the forecast on
Sunday as the shortwave will be out of the area and precip chances
will lower as well. Labor Day looks like a typical day for
late Summer with highs around 90 and a slight chance for an
afternoon storm.

The upper level pattern for early next week looks zonal with
seasonable temperatures and starting off the week drier. The model
solutions diverge somewhat by the middle of next week with the GFS
keeping the weather dry and the ECMWF has a stalled out or slow
moving front in the area with precip chances. Went ahead and
followed a little more closely with the ECMWF and included chance
pops for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Satellite imagery trends show a
blossoming cumulus field behind an outflow boundary along and north
of Hwy 54 and over southern MO along and south of I-44. Modified
12z KSGF sounding supports continued development of slow moving,
high based pulse convection, similar to yesterday. Strong winds
and hail will occur with or in the vicinity of stronger storms.
Thunderstorm coverage should gradually decrease after 28/0000z-7
pm CDT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday Night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning compared to this time
yesterday morning. Widely scattered convection dissipated shortly
before midnight, leaving a mainly clear sky in its wake.

Today will be similar to yesterday. Mainly clear to start the day,
with another round of scattered storms expected during the
afternoon. Air temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower this
afternoon, however, an increase in dew points will keep heat index
values in the 98F to 105F range. As a result, the heat advisory
remains in effect into early this evening. Like yesterday, shear
will be low and MUCAPE will be large, so a few pulse severe storms
will be possible. Not quite sure we`ll see a repeat performance of
the golf ball hail like we saw in Eldorado Springs yesterday, but
a few storms with quarter sized hail and localized downburst winds
in excess of 60 mph are plausible. Storms should subside after
sunset.

Thursday looks to be a more quiet day, and still hot as the upper
level ridge gives one last surge ahead of an incoming trough that
should arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Will keep an eye
on the need to extend the heat advisory. At this juncture, an
extension may not be needed as dew points look to mix out during
the afternoon. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, the better chances look
to be to our north and east.

As mentioned above, a weak trough will enter from the west
beginning Friday. Rain chances will gradually enter from west to
east Friday into Friday night, and this looks to be our best
chance for a more widespread brand of rain. Increase in clouds
and rain chances will result in a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs
for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The shortwave will be moving across the Midwest on Saturday with
likely precip chances across the Missouri Ozarks. Anyone with
outdoor activities will need to monitor later forecast and have a
back up plan around thunderstorms. Folks out on the water...area
lakes and rivers will need to watch out for the lightning on
Saturday. Followed the ECMWF more with regards to the forecast on
Sunday as the shortwave will be out of the area and precip chances
will lower as well. Labor Day looks like a typical day for
late Summer with highs around 90 and a slight chance for an
afternoon storm.

The upper level pattern for early next week looks zonal with
seasonable temperatures and starting off the week drier. The model
solutions diverge somewhat by the middle of next week with the GFS
keeping the weather dry and the ECMWF has a stalled out or slow
moving front in the area with precip chances. Went ahead and
followed a little more closely with the ECMWF and included chance
pops for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Satellite imagery trends show a
blossoming cumulus field behind an outflow boundary along and north
of Hwy 54 and over southern MO along and south of I-44. Modified
12z KSGF sounding supports continued development of slow moving,
high based pulse convection, similar to yesterday. Strong winds
and hail will occur with or in the vicinity of stronger storms.
Thunderstorm coverage should gradually decrease after 28/0000z-7
pm CDT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271056
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday Night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning compared to this time
yesterday morning. Widely scattered convection dissipated shortly
before midnight, leaving a mainly clear sky in its wake.

Today will be similar to yesterday. Mainly clear to start the day,
with another round of scattered storms expected during the
afternoon. Air temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower this
afternoon, however, an increase in dewpoints will keep heat index
values in the 98F to 105F range. As a result, the heat advisory
remains in effect into early this evening. Like yesterday, shear
will be low and MUCAPE will be large, so a few pulse severe storms
will be possible. Not quite sure we`ll see a repeat performance of
the golf ball hail like we saw in Eldorado Springs yesterday, but
a few storms with quarter sized hail and localized downburst winds
in excess of 60 mph are plausible. Storms should subside after
sunset.

Thursday looks to be a more quiet day, and still hot as the upper
level ridge gives one last surge ahead of an incoming trough that
should arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Will keep an eye
on the need to extend the heat advisory. At this juncture, an
extension may not be needed as dewpoints look to mix out during
the afternoon. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, the better chances look
to be to our north and east.

As mentioned above, a weak trough will enter from the west
beginning Friday. Rain chances will gradually enter from west to
east Friday into Friday night, and this looks to be our best
chance for a more widespread brand of rain. Increase in clouds
and rain chances will result in a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs
for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The shortwave will be moving across the Midwest on Saturday with
likely precip chances across the Missouri Ozarks. Anyone with
outdoor activities will need to monitor later forecast and have a
back up plan around thunderstorms. Folks out on the water...area
lakes and rivers will need to watch out for the lightning on
Saturday. Followed the ECMWF more with regards to the forecast on
Sunday as the shortwave will be out of the area and precip chances
will lower as well. Labor Day looks like a typical day for
late Summer with highs around 90 and a slight chance for an
afternoon storm.

The upper level pattern for early next week looks zonal with
seasonable temperatures and starting off the week drier. The model
solutions diverge somewhat by the middle of next week with the GFS
keeping the weather dry and the ECMWF has a stalled out or slow
moving front in the area with precip chances. Went ahead and
followed a little more closely with the ECMWF and included chance
pops for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Mainly VFR will prevail at all area airports across the Missouri
Ozarks through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds this
morning will give way to a light southeast wind around 5 knots by
midday through the afternoon. Have included a prob30 group for
late afternoon into the early evening hours for scattered
convection to develop. Most of the convection should be
dissipate by sunset this evening and it will be another quiet
night tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 271056
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday Night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning compared to this time
yesterday morning. Widely scattered convection dissipated shortly
before midnight, leaving a mainly clear sky in its wake.

Today will be similar to yesterday. Mainly clear to start the day,
with another round of scattered storms expected during the
afternoon. Air temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower this
afternoon, however, an increase in dewpoints will keep heat index
values in the 98F to 105F range. As a result, the heat advisory
remains in effect into early this evening. Like yesterday, shear
will be low and MUCAPE will be large, so a few pulse severe storms
will be possible. Not quite sure we`ll see a repeat performance of
the golf ball hail like we saw in Eldorado Springs yesterday, but
a few storms with quarter sized hail and localized downburst winds
in excess of 60 mph are plausible. Storms should subside after
sunset.

Thursday looks to be a more quiet day, and still hot as the upper
level ridge gives one last surge ahead of an incoming trough that
should arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Will keep an eye
on the need to extend the heat advisory. At this juncture, an
extension may not be needed as dewpoints look to mix out during
the afternoon. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, the better chances look
to be to our north and east.

As mentioned above, a weak trough will enter from the west
beginning Friday. Rain chances will gradually enter from west to
east Friday into Friday night, and this looks to be our best
chance for a more widespread brand of rain. Increase in clouds
and rain chances will result in a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs
for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The shortwave will be moving across the Midwest on Saturday with
likely precip chances across the Missouri Ozarks. Anyone with
outdoor activities will need to monitor later forecast and have a
back up plan around thunderstorms. Folks out on the water...area
lakes and rivers will need to watch out for the lightning on
Saturday. Followed the ECMWF more with regards to the forecast on
Sunday as the shortwave will be out of the area and precip chances
will lower as well. Labor Day looks like a typical day for
late Summer with highs around 90 and a slight chance for an
afternoon storm.

The upper level pattern for early next week looks zonal with
seasonable temperatures and starting off the week drier. The model
solutions diverge somewhat by the middle of next week with the GFS
keeping the weather dry and the ECMWF has a stalled out or slow
moving front in the area with precip chances. Went ahead and
followed a little more closely with the ECMWF and included chance
pops for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Mainly VFR will prevail at all area airports across the Missouri
Ozarks through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds this
morning will give way to a light southeast wind around 5 knots by
midday through the afternoon. Have included a prob30 group for
late afternoon into the early evening hours for scattered
convection to develop. Most of the convection should be
dissipate by sunset this evening and it will be another quiet
night tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday Night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning compared to this time
yesterday morning. Widely scattered convection dissipated shortly
before midnight, leaving a mainly clear sky in its wake.

Today will be similar to yesterday. Mainly clear to start the day,
with another round of scattered storms expected during the
afternoon. Air temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower this
afternoon, however, an increase in dewpoints will keep heat index
values in the 98F to 105F range. As a result, the heat advisory
remains in effect into early this evening. Like yesterday, shear
will be low and MUCAPE will be large, so a few pulse severe storms
will be possible. Not quite sure we`ll see a repeat performance of
the golf ball hail like we saw in Eldorado Springs yesterday, but
a few storms with quarter sized hail and localized downburst winds
in excess of 60 mph are plausible. Storms should subside after
sunset.

Thursday looks to be a more quiet day, and still hot as the upper
level ridge gives one last surge ahead of an incoming trough that
should arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Will keep an eye
on the need to extend the heat advisory. At this juncture, an
extension may not be needed as dewpoints look to mix out during
the afternoon. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, the better chances look
to be to our north and east.

As mentioned above, a weak trough will enter from the west
beginning Friday. Rain chances will gradually enter from west to
east Friday into Friday night, and this looks to be our best
chance for a more widespread brand of rain. Increase in clouds
and rain chances will result in a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs
for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The shortwave will be moving across the Midwest on Saturday with
likely precip chances across the Missouri Ozarks. Anyone with
outdoor activities will need to monitor later forecast and have a
back up plan around thunderstorms. Folks out on the water...area
lakes and rivers will need to watch out for the lightning on
Saturday. Followed the ECMWF more with regards to the forecast on
Sunday as the shortwave will be out of the area and precip chances
will lower as well. Labor Day looks like a typical day for
late Summer with highs around 90 and a slight chance for an
afternoon storm.

The upper level pattern for early next week looks zonal with
seasonable temperatures and starting off the week drier. The model
solutions diverge somewhat by the middle of next week with the GFS
keeping the weather dry and the ECMWF has a stalled out or slow
moving front in the area with precip chances. Went ahead and
followed a little more closely with the ECMWF and included chance
pops for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

High pressure will once again bring quiet flight conditions to the
regions terminals overnight and into Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday Night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning compared to this time
yesterday morning. Widely scattered convection dissipated shortly
before midnight, leaving a mainly clear sky in its wake.

Today will be similar to yesterday. Mainly clear to start the day,
with another round of scattered storms expected during the
afternoon. Air temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower this
afternoon, however, an increase in dewpoints will keep heat index
values in the 98F to 105F range. As a result, the heat advisory
remains in effect into early this evening. Like yesterday, shear
will be low and MUCAPE will be large, so a few pulse severe storms
will be possible. Not quite sure we`ll see a repeat performance of
the golf ball hail like we saw in Eldorado Springs yesterday, but
a few storms with quarter sized hail and localized downburst winds
in excess of 60 mph are plausible. Storms should subside after
sunset.

Thursday looks to be a more quiet day, and still hot as the upper
level ridge gives one last surge ahead of an incoming trough that
should arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Will keep an eye
on the need to extend the heat advisory. At this juncture, an
extension may not be needed as dewpoints look to mix out during
the afternoon. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, the better chances look
to be to our north and east.

As mentioned above, a weak trough will enter from the west
beginning Friday. Rain chances will gradually enter from west to
east Friday into Friday night, and this looks to be our best
chance for a more widespread brand of rain. Increase in clouds
and rain chances will result in a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs
for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The shortwave will be moving across the Midwest on Saturday with
likely precip chances across the Missouri Ozarks. Anyone with
outdoor activities will need to monitor later forecast and have a
back up plan around thunderstorms. Folks out on the water...area
lakes and rivers will need to watch out for the lightning on
Saturday. Followed the ECMWF more with regards to the forecast on
Sunday as the shortwave will be out of the area and precip chances
will lower as well. Labor Day looks like a typical day for
late Summer with highs around 90 and a slight chance for an
afternoon storm.

The upper level pattern for early next week looks zonal with
seasonable temperatures and starting off the week drier. The model
solutions diverge somewhat by the middle of next week with the GFS
keeping the weather dry and the ECMWF has a stalled out or slow
moving front in the area with precip chances. Went ahead and
followed a little more closely with the ECMWF and included chance
pops for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

High pressure will once again bring quiet flight conditions to the
regions terminals overnight and into Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270403
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Numerous outflow boundaries and weakening storms remained over the
region after 6 pm this evening. These storms will continue to
weaken and dissipate as the sun sets and day time heating is lost.
High pressure will continue to influence the regions weather
through the overnight hours with cloud cover diminishing, allowing
for mostly clear skies and temperatures falling into the lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Temperatures were approaching 100 degrees once again in several
areas of southern Missouri and southeast Kansas. The summertime
high is firmly in control of the Ozarks weather.

A weak area of convergence was analyzed along the Interstate 44
corridor this afternoon, helping to trigger a few thunderstorms
from Rolla over toward Avila.

We suspect these updrafts will continue to develop in isolated to
scattered fashion the rest of the afternoon, eventually
dissipating around sunset.

We decided to extend the Heat Advisory through Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures could certainly be a little cooler
tomorrow, however, dew points are not expected to mix down as
much, keeping the Ozarks airmass feeling humid. Therefore we
expect heat indices to range from 98 - 104 degrees Wednesday
afternoon.

Other than a few isolated thunderstorms Wednesday, nearly all
locations should remain dry. The better chances for rain should
occur near a frontal system stretched across central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Regarding this Heat Advisory, we`ll take it one day at a time. The
summertime high gradually breaks down in the mid levels Thursday
and Friday. But how this translates into cooler temperatures is
still unknown...specifically for Thursday. It`s quite possible an
extension of the advisory may be needed into Thursday, but we`ll
assess that tonight and again tomorrow.

By Friday, cloud cover is expected to spread over the Ozarks from
the southwest, in advance of an approaching upper level low
pressure system.

Eventually rain will follow, most likely Friday night and through
Saturday. The holiday campers, boaters, and floaters should
monitor radar trends prior to hitting the water, in case
thunderstorms are rolling in. In fact, anyone participating in
Labor Day Weekend outdoor festivities should remain abreast of
thunderstorms risks. The great thing about Saturday and Sunday,
temperatures will be cooler, with highs only in the 80s.

As of now, Labor Day (next Monday), looks ideal for outdoor
activities, with temperatures potentially warming back toward the
upper 80s or 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

High pressure will once again bring quiet flight conditions to the
regions terminals overnight and into Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 270403
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Numerous outflow boundaries and weakening storms remained over the
region after 6 pm this evening. These storms will continue to
weaken and dissipate as the sun sets and day time heating is lost.
High pressure will continue to influence the regions weather
through the overnight hours with cloud cover diminishing, allowing
for mostly clear skies and temperatures falling into the lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Temperatures were approaching 100 degrees once again in several
areas of southern Missouri and southeast Kansas. The summertime
high is firmly in control of the Ozarks weather.

A weak area of convergence was analyzed along the Interstate 44
corridor this afternoon, helping to trigger a few thunderstorms
from Rolla over toward Avila.

We suspect these updrafts will continue to develop in isolated to
scattered fashion the rest of the afternoon, eventually
dissipating around sunset.

We decided to extend the Heat Advisory through Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures could certainly be a little cooler
tomorrow, however, dew points are not expected to mix down as
much, keeping the Ozarks airmass feeling humid. Therefore we
expect heat indices to range from 98 - 104 degrees Wednesday
afternoon.

Other than a few isolated thunderstorms Wednesday, nearly all
locations should remain dry. The better chances for rain should
occur near a frontal system stretched across central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Regarding this Heat Advisory, we`ll take it one day at a time. The
summertime high gradually breaks down in the mid levels Thursday
and Friday. But how this translates into cooler temperatures is
still unknown...specifically for Thursday. It`s quite possible an
extension of the advisory may be needed into Thursday, but we`ll
assess that tonight and again tomorrow.

By Friday, cloud cover is expected to spread over the Ozarks from
the southwest, in advance of an approaching upper level low
pressure system.

Eventually rain will follow, most likely Friday night and through
Saturday. The holiday campers, boaters, and floaters should
monitor radar trends prior to hitting the water, in case
thunderstorms are rolling in. In fact, anyone participating in
Labor Day Weekend outdoor festivities should remain abreast of
thunderstorms risks. The great thing about Saturday and Sunday,
temperatures will be cooler, with highs only in the 80s.

As of now, Labor Day (next Monday), looks ideal for outdoor
activities, with temperatures potentially warming back toward the
upper 80s or 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

High pressure will once again bring quiet flight conditions to the
regions terminals overnight and into Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch









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