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000
FXUS63 KSGF 012335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

An upper level ridge will continue to be in control of our weather
here in the MO Ozarks/SE Kansas vicinity through the short term. An
upper level low has developed along the TX/LA coastlines this
morning. This feature is forecast to stay well south of our area.
However, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out,
especially locations closer to the Arkansas Border.

Wednesday is expected to be a near carbon copy of Tuesday with
temperatures again in the upper 80s/lower 90s. There may be some
patchy fog early Wednesday out across the eastern portions of the
Ozarks...especially if any rain falls Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Upper level ridging will continue across the Midwestern states and
great plains through the week. This ridge will keep temperatures up
and will suppress overall precipitation chances.  That in mind, it
wouldn`t be impossible to see isolated daytime induced convection
later this weekend. A rather strong shortwave will dig across the
northwestern states later this week and into the weekend.

Toward the end of the period, guidance has backed off on
precipitation chances from yesterday for early next week. Models
are now progging the shortwave to ride northeastward into Manitoba
and Ontario by early next week...staying well north of the region.
The cold frontal boundary now looks to become stalled upon losing
UL support across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. The GFS is
showing a modest signal of developing a Rex Block closer to the
eastern seaboard early next week. If that does take shape, the
weather may turn unsettled with an upper level southwesterly
flow...with ample Pacific moisture. For this package, didn`t make
any major changes to the previous forecast given low confidence in
the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 0633 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will persist through
Wednesday. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast below
12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 012335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

An upper level ridge will continue to be in control of our weather
here in the MO Ozarks/SE Kansas vicinity through the short term. An
upper level low has developed along the TX/LA coastlines this
morning. This feature is forecast to stay well south of our area.
However, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out,
especially locations closer to the Arkansas Border.

Wednesday is expected to be a near carbon copy of Tuesday with
temperatures again in the upper 80s/lower 90s. There may be some
patchy fog early Wednesday out across the eastern portions of the
Ozarks...especially if any rain falls Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Upper level ridging will continue across the Midwestern states and
great plains through the week. This ridge will keep temperatures up
and will suppress overall precipitation chances.  That in mind, it
wouldn`t be impossible to see isolated daytime induced convection
later this weekend. A rather strong shortwave will dig across the
northwestern states later this week and into the weekend.

Toward the end of the period, guidance has backed off on
precipitation chances from yesterday for early next week. Models
are now progging the shortwave to ride northeastward into Manitoba
and Ontario by early next week...staying well north of the region.
The cold frontal boundary now looks to become stalled upon losing
UL support across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. The GFS is
showing a modest signal of developing a Rex Block closer to the
eastern seaboard early next week. If that does take shape, the
weather may turn unsettled with an upper level southwesterly
flow...with ample Pacific moisture. For this package, didn`t make
any major changes to the previous forecast given low confidence in
the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 0633 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will persist through
Wednesday. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast below
12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Warm Conditions Will Persist into Wednesday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

An upper level ridge will continue to be in control of our weather
here in the MO Ozarks/SE Kansas vicinity through the short term. An
upper level low has developed along the TX/LA coastlines this
morning. This feature is forecast to stay well south of our area.
However, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out,
especially locations closer to the Arkansas Border.

Wednesday is expected to be a near carbon copy of Tuesday with
temperatures again in the upper 80s/lower 90s. There may be some
patchy fog early Wednesday out across the eastern portions of the
Ozarks...especially if any rain falls Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Upper level ridging will continue across the Midwestern states and
great plains through the week. This ridge will keep temperatures up
and will suppress overall precipitation chances.  That in mind, it
wouldn`t be impossible to see isolated daytime induced convection
later this weekend. A rather strong shortwave will dig across the
northwestern states later this week and into the weekend.

Toward the end of the period, guidance has backed off on
precipitation chances from yesterday for early next week. Models
are now progging the shortwave to ride northeastward into Manitoba
and Ontario by early next week...staying well north of the region.
The cold frontal boundary now looks to become stalled upon losing
UL support across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. The GFS is
showing a modest signal of developing a Rex Block closer to the
eastern seaboard early next week. If that does take shape, the
weather may turn unsettled with an upper level southwesterly
flow...with ample Pacific moisture. For this package, didn`t make
any major changes to the previous forecast given low confidence in
the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions to prevail today through tonight
at area terminals. A steady southerly wind will continue with some
scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. A few showers or thunderstorms
may develop during the afternoon but this activity will be very
sparse. Some light fog or haze may impact the area late tonight
but MVFR conditions are expected to be very localized.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Foster





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Warm Conditions Will Persist into Wednesday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

An upper level ridge will continue to be in control of our weather
here in the MO Ozarks/SE Kansas vicinity through the short term. An
upper level low has developed along the TX/LA coastlines this
morning. This feature is forecast to stay well south of our area.
However, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out,
especially locations closer to the Arkansas Border.

Wednesday is expected to be a near carbon copy of Tuesday with
temperatures again in the upper 80s/lower 90s. There may be some
patchy fog early Wednesday out across the eastern portions of the
Ozarks...especially if any rain falls Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Upper level ridging will continue across the Midwestern states and
great plains through the week. This ridge will keep temperatures up
and will suppress overall precipitation chances.  That in mind, it
wouldn`t be impossible to see isolated daytime induced convection
later this weekend. A rather strong shortwave will dig across the
northwestern states later this week and into the weekend.

Toward the end of the period, guidance has backed off on
precipitation chances from yesterday for early next week. Models
are now progging the shortwave to ride northeastward into Manitoba
and Ontario by early next week...staying well north of the region.
The cold frontal boundary now looks to become stalled upon losing
UL support across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. The GFS is
showing a modest signal of developing a Rex Block closer to the
eastern seaboard early next week. If that does take shape, the
weather may turn unsettled with an upper level southwesterly
flow...with ample Pacific moisture. For this package, didn`t make
any major changes to the previous forecast given low confidence in
the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions to prevail today through tonight
at area terminals. A steady southerly wind will continue with some
scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. A few showers or thunderstorms
may develop during the afternoon but this activity will be very
sparse. Some light fog or haze may impact the area late tonight
but MVFR conditions are expected to be very localized.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 011730
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Warm and Humid this Afternoon with Isolated Storms...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Another warm and rather humid afternoon is in store. Water vapor
imagery depicts a weak mid level vorticity center and shear axis
stretching across south central Missouri. This along with ample
instability will support the development of isolated convection
across far southern and south central Missouri or generally
southeast of a line from Cassville to Salem.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions to prevail today through tonight
at area terminals. A steady southerly wind will continue with some
scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. A few showers or thunderstorms
may develop during the afternoon but this activity will be very
sparse. Some light fog or haze may impact the area late tonight
but MVFR conditions are expected to be very localized.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011730
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Warm and Humid this Afternoon with Isolated Storms...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Another warm and rather humid afternoon is in store. Water vapor
imagery depicts a weak mid level vorticity center and shear axis
stretching across south central Missouri. This along with ample
instability will support the development of isolated convection
across far southern and south central Missouri or generally
southeast of a line from Cassville to Salem.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions to prevail today through tonight
at area terminals. A steady southerly wind will continue with some
scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. A few showers or thunderstorms
may develop during the afternoon but this activity will be very
sparse. Some light fog or haze may impact the area late tonight
but MVFR conditions are expected to be very localized.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011730
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Warm and Humid this Afternoon with Isolated Storms...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Another warm and rather humid afternoon is in store. Water vapor
imagery depicts a weak mid level vorticity center and shear axis
stretching across south central Missouri. This along with ample
instability will support the development of isolated convection
across far southern and south central Missouri or generally
southeast of a line from Cassville to Salem.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions to prevail today through tonight
at area terminals. A steady southerly wind will continue with some
scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. A few showers or thunderstorms
may develop during the afternoon but this activity will be very
sparse. Some light fog or haze may impact the area late tonight
but MVFR conditions are expected to be very localized.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 011150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 0647 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

No impacts to aviation concerns are expected through the forecast
period as little change has occurred with the airmass in place
over the region since yesterday. Expect VFR flight conditions with
nearly clear skies and good visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 0647 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

No impacts to aviation concerns are expected through the forecast
period as little change has occurred with the airmass in place
over the region since yesterday. Expect VFR flight conditions with
nearly clear skies and good visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch




000
FXUS63 KSGF 011150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 0647 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

No impacts to aviation concerns are expected through the forecast
period as little change has occurred with the airmass in place
over the region since yesterday. Expect VFR flight conditions with
nearly clear skies and good visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch




000
FXUS63 KSGF 011150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 0647 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

No impacts to aviation concerns are expected through the forecast
period as little change has occurred with the airmass in place
over the region since yesterday. Expect VFR flight conditions with
nearly clear skies and good visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch





000
FXUS63 KSGF 010747
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday evening.
Some patchy light fog will be possible across portions of southern
Missouri tonight, but the prospects appear to be too low to
include in the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the south to
southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 010747
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday evening.
Some patchy light fog will be possible across portions of southern
Missouri tonight, but the prospects appear to be too low to
include in the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the south to
southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 010747
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday evening.
Some patchy light fog will be possible across portions of southern
Missouri tonight, but the prospects appear to be too low to
include in the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the south to
southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 010747
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday evening.
Some patchy light fog will be possible across portions of southern
Missouri tonight, but the prospects appear to be too low to
include in the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the south to
southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 010450
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday evening.
Some patchy light fog will be possible across portions of southern
Missouri tonight, but the prospects appear to be too low to
include in the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the south to
southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 010450
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday evening.
Some patchy light fog will be possible across portions of southern
Missouri tonight, but the prospects appear to be too low to
include in the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the south to
southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 312312
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 0606 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Showers and thunderstorms in the general vicinity of Branson will
quickly diminish early this evening. VFR conditions are expected
from this evening through Tuesday across southern Missouri. There
is a low-end chance for some MVFR visibilities towards daybreak,
but confidence was too low to include this potential in the TAFs
at this time. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast
below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 312312
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 0606 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Showers and thunderstorms in the general vicinity of Branson will
quickly diminish early this evening. VFR conditions are expected
from this evening through Tuesday across southern Missouri. There
is a low-end chance for some MVFR visibilities towards daybreak,
but confidence was too low to include this potential in the TAFs
at this time. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast
below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 312312
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 0606 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Showers and thunderstorms in the general vicinity of Branson will
quickly diminish early this evening. VFR conditions are expected
from this evening through Tuesday across southern Missouri. There
is a low-end chance for some MVFR visibilities towards daybreak,
but confidence was too low to include this potential in the TAFs
at this time. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast
below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 312312
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 0606 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Showers and thunderstorms in the general vicinity of Branson will
quickly diminish early this evening. VFR conditions are expected
from this evening through Tuesday across southern Missouri. There
is a low-end chance for some MVFR visibilities towards daybreak,
but confidence was too low to include this potential in the TAFs
at this time. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast
below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 311929
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR will prevail through tomorrow morning. Skies will be mostly
clear and a light southerly breeze 10 knots or less.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 311929
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR will prevail through tomorrow morning. Skies will be mostly
clear and a light southerly breeze 10 knots or less.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 311643
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR will prevail through tomorrow morning. Skies will be mostly
clear and a light southerly breeze 10 knots or less.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 311643
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR will prevail through tomorrow morning. Skies will be mostly
clear and a light southerly breeze 10 knots or less.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 311643
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR will prevail through tomorrow morning. Skies will be mostly
clear and a light southerly breeze 10 knots or less.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 311143
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 0631 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Sfc high pressure centered over the
OH Vly will keep generally VFR conditions in place with s-se
winds. Given the humid air mass in place, an isolated shower/tstm
is possible but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention at any taf site. Some patchy fog will occur in low lying
areas but will dissipate quickly this morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA





000
FXUS63 KSGF 311143
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 0631 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Sfc high pressure centered over the
OH Vly will keep generally VFR conditions in place with s-se
winds. Given the humid air mass in place, an isolated shower/tstm
is possible but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention at any taf site. Some patchy fog will occur in low lying
areas but will dissipate quickly this morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA





000
FXUS63 KSGF 311143
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 0631 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Sfc high pressure centered over the
OH Vly will keep generally VFR conditions in place with s-se
winds. Given the humid air mass in place, an isolated shower/tstm
is possible but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention at any taf site. Some patchy fog will occur in low lying
areas but will dissipate quickly this morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 311143
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 0631 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Sfc high pressure centered over the
OH Vly will keep generally VFR conditions in place with s-se
winds. Given the humid air mass in place, an isolated shower/tstm
is possible but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention at any taf site. Some patchy fog will occur in low lying
areas but will dissipate quickly this morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 310803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
south-central Missouri as an upper level disturbance remains over
the region. We have included a TEMPO group at Branson to cover
this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms.

Light fog is also expected overnight across western Missouri. We
have inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at Joplin. At this time,
it looks like any dense fog potential will remain west of the
region.

VFR is then expected by mid-morning across all of southern
Missouri with winds increasing out of the south. Joplin may see
gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 310803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
south-central Missouri as an upper level disturbance remains over
the region. We have included a TEMPO group at Branson to cover
this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms.

Light fog is also expected overnight across western Missouri. We
have inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at Joplin. At this time,
it looks like any dense fog potential will remain west of the
region.

VFR is then expected by mid-morning across all of southern
Missouri with winds increasing out of the south. Joplin may see
gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 310506
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
south-central Missouri as an upper level disturbance remains over
the region. We have included a TEMPO group at Branson to cover
this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms.

Light fog is also expected overnight across western Missouri. We
have inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at Joplin. At this time,
it looks like any dense fog potential will remain west of the
region.

VFR is then expected by mid-morning across all of southern
Missouri with winds increasing out of the south. Joplin may see
gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 310506
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
south-central Missouri as an upper level disturbance remains over
the region. We have included a TEMPO group at Branson to cover
this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms.

Light fog is also expected overnight across western Missouri. We
have inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at Joplin. At this time,
it looks like any dense fog potential will remain west of the
region.

VFR is then expected by mid-morning across all of southern
Missouri with winds increasing out of the south. Joplin may see
gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 310506
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
south-central Missouri as an upper level disturbance remains over
the region. We have included a TEMPO group at Branson to cover
this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms.

Light fog is also expected overnight across western Missouri. We
have inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at Joplin. At this time,
it looks like any dense fog potential will remain west of the
region.

VFR is then expected by mid-morning across all of southern
Missouri with winds increasing out of the south. Joplin may see
gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 310506
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
south-central Missouri as an upper level disturbance remains over
the region. We have included a TEMPO group at Branson to cover
this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms.

Light fog is also expected overnight across western Missouri. We
have inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at Joplin. At this time,
it looks like any dense fog potential will remain west of the
region.

VFR is then expected by mid-morning across all of southern
Missouri with winds increasing out of the south. Joplin may see
gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 302337 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening
across southern Missouri. Widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible late tonight. A PROB30 group was introduced at
Branson to cover this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

There is also the potential for some light fog late tonight across
south-central Missouri. Confidence is low at this point and will
be dependent on whether or not thunderstorms develop.

Any thunderstorm activity will tend to diminish by later Monday
morning. Surface winds will increase out of the south on Monday
and will become somewhat gusty around Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 302337 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening
across southern Missouri. Widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible late tonight. A PROB30 group was introduced at
Branson to cover this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

There is also the potential for some light fog late tonight across
south-central Missouri. Confidence is low at this point and will
be dependent on whether or not thunderstorms develop.

Any thunderstorm activity will tend to diminish by later Monday
morning. Surface winds will increase out of the south on Monday
and will become somewhat gusty around Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 302337 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening
across southern Missouri. Widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible late tonight. A PROB30 group was introduced at
Branson to cover this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

There is also the potential for some light fog late tonight across
south-central Missouri. Confidence is low at this point and will
be dependent on whether or not thunderstorms develop.

Any thunderstorm activity will tend to diminish by later Monday
morning. Surface winds will increase out of the south on Monday
and will become somewhat gusty around Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 302337 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening
across southern Missouri. Widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible late tonight. A PROB30 group was introduced at
Branson to cover this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

There is also the potential for some light fog late tonight across
south-central Missouri. Confidence is low at this point and will
be dependent on whether or not thunderstorms develop.

Any thunderstorm activity will tend to diminish by later Monday
morning. Surface winds will increase out of the south on Monday
and will become somewhat gusty around Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 302335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening
across southern Missouri. Widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible late tonight. A PROB30 group was introduced at
Branson to cover this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

There is also the potential for some light fog late tonight across
south-central Missouri. Confidence is low at this point and will
be dependent on whether or not thunderstorms develop.

Any thunderstorm activity will tend to diminish by later Monday
morning. Surface winds will increase out of the south on Monday
and will become somewhat gusty around Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 302335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening
across southern Missouri. Widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible late tonight. A PROB30 group was introduced at
Branson to cover this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

There is also the potential for some light fog late tonight across
south-central Missouri. Confidence is low at this point and will
be dependent on whether or not thunderstorms develop.

Any thunderstorm activity will tend to diminish by later Monday
morning. Surface winds will increase out of the south on Monday
and will become somewhat gusty around Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 302335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening
across southern Missouri. Widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible late tonight. A PROB30 group was introduced at
Branson to cover this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected with any thunderstorms.

There is also the potential for some light fog late tonight across
south-central Missouri. Confidence is low at this point and will
be dependent on whether or not thunderstorms develop.

Any thunderstorm activity will tend to diminish by later Monday
morning. Surface winds will increase out of the south on Monday
and will become somewhat gusty around Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across the
Missouri Ozarks. Have included a mention of VCSH for JLN between
21z to 02z and VCTS for SGF and BBG. The better potential for
scattered convection will be closer to BBG and have included a
tempo group from 21z to 02z with a brief -TSRA and MVFR
conditions. Skies will return to mostly clear tonight through
tomrorow morning. Winds will remain southerly and light.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across the
Missouri Ozarks. Have included a mention of VCSH for JLN between
21z to 02z and VCTS for SGF and BBG. The better potential for
scattered convection will be closer to BBG and have included a
tempo group from 21z to 02z with a brief -TSRA and MVFR
conditions. Skies will return to mostly clear tonight through
tomrorow morning. Winds will remain southerly and light.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occurring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.

Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.

The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.

Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.

Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any significant weather
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across the
Missouri Ozarks. Have included a mention of VCSH for JLN between
21z to 02z and VCTS for SGF and BBG. The better potential for
scattered convection will be closer to BBG and have included a
tempo group from 21z to 02z with a brief -TSRA and MVFR
conditions. Skies will return to mostly clear tonight through
tomrorow morning. Winds will remain southerly and light.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occurring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.

Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.

The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.

Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.

Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any significant weather
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across the
Missouri Ozarks. Have included a mention of VCSH for JLN between
21z to 02z and VCTS for SGF and BBG. The better potential for
scattered convection will be closer to BBG and have included a
tempo group from 21z to 02z with a brief -TSRA and MVFR
conditions. Skies will return to mostly clear tonight through
tomrorow morning. Winds will remain southerly and light.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occurring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.

Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.

The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.

Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.

Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any significant weather
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 0650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shallow dense fog over western MO
including KJLN will burn off fairly quickly. A small cluster of
thunderstorms will also affect the area near Branson/KBBG early
in the taf period. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Some
additional isolated-scattered storms may develop toward mid/late
afternoon/2100z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occurring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.

Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.

The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.

Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.

Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any significant weather
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 0650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shallow dense fog over western MO
including KJLN will burn off fairly quickly. A small cluster of
thunderstorms will also affect the area near Branson/KBBG early
in the taf period. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Some
additional isolated-scattered storms may develop toward mid/late
afternoon/2100z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occurring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.

Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.

The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.

Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.

Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any significant weather
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 0650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shallow dense fog over western MO
including KJLN will burn off fairly quickly. A small cluster of
thunderstorms will also affect the area near Branson/KBBG early
in the taf period. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Some
additional isolated-scattered storms may develop toward mid/late
afternoon/2100z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA





000
FXUS63 KSGF 301153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occurring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.

Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.

The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.

Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.

Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any significant weather
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 0650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shallow dense fog over western MO
including KJLN will burn off fairly quickly. A small cluster of
thunderstorms will also affect the area near Branson/KBBG early
in the taf period. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Some
additional isolated-scattered storms may develop toward mid/late
afternoon/2100z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 300749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occuring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.

Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.

The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.

Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.

Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any signficant weather
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A weak upper level disturbance will keep the threat for scattered
showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri into
Sunday. The best chance for storms through dawn will be around
Branson where a TEMPO group was inserted.

Meanwhile, confidence in MVFR fog has increased for the Joplin
area. We have therefore gone with prevailing MVFR (versus the
TEMPO group from earlier). There is still potential for IFR fog
late tonight if enough clearing can take place.

More thunderstorms will then be possible in the heating of the
day Sunday afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms.

Surface winds will remain light through Sunday evening out of the
southeast to south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 300749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occuring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.

Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.

The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.

Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.

Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any signficant weather
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A weak upper level disturbance will keep the threat for scattered
showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri into
Sunday. The best chance for storms through dawn will be around
Branson where a TEMPO group was inserted.

Meanwhile, confidence in MVFR fog has increased for the Joplin
area. We have therefore gone with prevailing MVFR (versus the
TEMPO group from earlier). There is still potential for IFR fog
late tonight if enough clearing can take place.

More thunderstorms will then be possible in the heating of the
day Sunday afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms.

Surface winds will remain light through Sunday evening out of the
southeast to south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 300502
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0702 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

We are finally starting to see convection develop early this
evening across far southwestern Missouri. This trend is expected
to continue into this evening as a low level jet stream
strengthens and noses into northern Arkansas and south-central
Missouri. Isentropic upglide along the nose of this jet will lift
elevated air parcels which should be relatively uncapped. We will
have to watch for locally heavy rainfall potential as focused lift
could remain over the same general area for a 3-6 hour time frame.

We have also added the mention of patchy fog late tonight and
early Sunday morning across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Light winds and the presence of a low level
baroclinic zone should result in at least patchy fog development.
If clouds can stay away from this region, there would be the
potential for dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

All is quiet on radar as of mid afternoon but high resolution
forecast models like the HRRR, RUC, and the ARW continue to
suggest that widely scattered convection will develop along a
southwest to northeast line across southwestern Missouri to the
Lake of the Ozarks area by late afternoon and early evening.

Mid level shear axis will continue to very slowly move across the
area. Modest instability of around 1500 J/KG has develop across
southwestern Missouri where sunshine occurred early this
afternoon. Shear is rather weak though. Sounding analyst shows
some low level drier air which could suggest some gusty winds may
be possible with the strongest convection that develops.

Will mention a limited threat for gusty winds and small hail with
the strongest convection late this afternoon and evening. No
severe weather is anticipated. Lightning will be the main hazard
along with brief heavy downpours. A few scattered showers may
linger across portions of the Missouri Ozarks through the night
time hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

No major changes to the forecast offered by the 12z suite of model
output. Will continue to monitor the weak shear axis aloft that
will linger over/near the area into the first half of next week.
QPF signature is erratic and random from the models, and the main
upper level features at play support an isolated to widely
scattered chance of diurnal showers/storms. Most locations will
remain dry, but it will be something to keep in mind.

Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure will spread across the
Midwest and temperatures will warm to above average. Certainly
nothing out of the ordinary for late August/early September. Highs
each day will be a few degrees either side of 90, with lows in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A weak upper level disturbance will keep the threat for scattered
showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri into
Sunday. The best chance for storms through dawn will be around
Branson where a TEMPO group was inserted.

Meanwhile, confidence in MVFR fog has increased for the Joplin
area. We have therefore gone with prevailing MVFR (versus the
TEMPO group from earlier). There is still potential for IFR fog
late tonight if enough clearing can take place.

More thunderstorms will then be possible in the heating of the
day Sunday afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms.

Surface winds will remain light through Sunday evening out of the
southeast to south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 300502
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0702 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

We are finally starting to see convection develop early this
evening across far southwestern Missouri. This trend is expected
to continue into this evening as a low level jet stream
strengthens and noses into northern Arkansas and south-central
Missouri. Isentropic upglide along the nose of this jet will lift
elevated air parcels which should be relatively uncapped. We will
have to watch for locally heavy rainfall potential as focused lift
could remain over the same general area for a 3-6 hour time frame.

We have also added the mention of patchy fog late tonight and
early Sunday morning across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Light winds and the presence of a low level
baroclinic zone should result in at least patchy fog development.
If clouds can stay away from this region, there would be the
potential for dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

All is quiet on radar as of mid afternoon but high resolution
forecast models like the HRRR, RUC, and the ARW continue to
suggest that widely scattered convection will develop along a
southwest to northeast line across southwestern Missouri to the
Lake of the Ozarks area by late afternoon and early evening.

Mid level shear axis will continue to very slowly move across the
area. Modest instability of around 1500 J/KG has develop across
southwestern Missouri where sunshine occurred early this
afternoon. Shear is rather weak though. Sounding analyst shows
some low level drier air which could suggest some gusty winds may
be possible with the strongest convection that develops.

Will mention a limited threat for gusty winds and small hail with
the strongest convection late this afternoon and evening. No
severe weather is anticipated. Lightning will be the main hazard
along with brief heavy downpours. A few scattered showers may
linger across portions of the Missouri Ozarks through the night
time hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

No major changes to the forecast offered by the 12z suite of model
output. Will continue to monitor the weak shear axis aloft that
will linger over/near the area into the first half of next week.
QPF signature is erratic and random from the models, and the main
upper level features at play support an isolated to widely
scattered chance of diurnal showers/storms. Most locations will
remain dry, but it will be something to keep in mind.

Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure will spread across the
Midwest and temperatures will warm to above average. Certainly
nothing out of the ordinary for late August/early September. Highs
each day will be a few degrees either side of 90, with lows in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A weak upper level disturbance will keep the threat for scattered
showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri into
Sunday. The best chance for storms through dawn will be around
Branson where a TEMPO group was inserted.

Meanwhile, confidence in MVFR fog has increased for the Joplin
area. We have therefore gone with prevailing MVFR (versus the
TEMPO group from earlier). There is still potential for IFR fog
late tonight if enough clearing can take place.

More thunderstorms will then be possible in the heating of the
day Sunday afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms.

Surface winds will remain light through Sunday evening out of the
southeast to south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 300502
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0702 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

We are finally starting to see convection develop early this
evening across far southwestern Missouri. This trend is expected
to continue into this evening as a low level jet stream
strengthens and noses into northern Arkansas and south-central
Missouri. Isentropic upglide along the nose of this jet will lift
elevated air parcels which should be relatively uncapped. We will
have to watch for locally heavy rainfall potential as focused lift
could remain over the same general area for a 3-6 hour time frame.

We have also added the mention of patchy fog late tonight and
early Sunday morning across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Light winds and the presence of a low level
baroclinic zone should result in at least patchy fog development.
If clouds can stay away from this region, there would be the
potential for dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

All is quiet on radar as of mid afternoon but high resolution
forecast models like the HRRR, RUC, and the ARW continue to
suggest that widely scattered convection will develop along a
southwest to northeast line across southwestern Missouri to the
Lake of the Ozarks area by late afternoon and early evening.

Mid level shear axis will continue to very slowly move across the
area. Modest instability of around 1500 J/KG has develop across
southwestern Missouri where sunshine occurred early this
afternoon. Shear is rather weak though. Sounding analyst shows
some low level drier air which could suggest some gusty winds may
be possible with the strongest convection that develops.

Will mention a limited threat for gusty winds and small hail with
the strongest convection late this afternoon and evening. No
severe weather is anticipated. Lightning will be the main hazard
along with brief heavy downpours. A few scattered showers may
linger across portions of the Missouri Ozarks through the night
time hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

No major changes to the forecast offered by the 12z suite of model
output. Will continue to monitor the weak shear axis aloft that
will linger over/near the area into the first half of next week.
QPF signature is erratic and random from the models, and the main
upper level features at play support an isolated to widely
scattered chance of diurnal showers/storms. Most locations will
remain dry, but it will be something to keep in mind.

Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure will spread across the
Midwest and temperatures will warm to above average. Certainly
nothing out of the ordinary for late August/early September. Highs
each day will be a few degrees either side of 90, with lows in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A weak upper level disturbance will keep the threat for scattered
showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri into
Sunday. The best chance for storms through dawn will be around
Branson where a TEMPO group was inserted.

Meanwhile, confidence in MVFR fog has increased for the Joplin
area. We have therefore gone with prevailing MVFR (versus the
TEMPO group from earlier). There is still potential for IFR fog
late tonight if enough clearing can take place.

More thunderstorms will then be possible in the heating of the
day Sunday afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms.

Surface winds will remain light through Sunday evening out of the
southeast to south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 300502
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0702 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

We are finally starting to see convection develop early this
evening across far southwestern Missouri. This trend is expected
to continue into this evening as a low level jet stream
strengthens and noses into northern Arkansas and south-central
Missouri. Isentropic upglide along the nose of this jet will lift
elevated air parcels which should be relatively uncapped. We will
have to watch for locally heavy rainfall potential as focused lift
could remain over the same general area for a 3-6 hour time frame.

We have also added the mention of patchy fog late tonight and
early Sunday morning across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Light winds and the presence of a low level
baroclinic zone should result in at least patchy fog development.
If clouds can stay away from this region, there would be the
potential for dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

All is quiet on radar as of mid afternoon but high resolution
forecast models like the HRRR, RUC, and the ARW continue to
suggest that widely scattered convection will develop along a
southwest to northeast line across southwestern Missouri to the
Lake of the Ozarks area by late afternoon and early evening.

Mid level shear axis will continue to very slowly move across the
area. Modest instability of around 1500 J/KG has develop across
southwestern Missouri where sunshine occurred early this
afternoon. Shear is rather weak though. Sounding analyst shows
some low level drier air which could suggest some gusty winds may
be possible with the strongest convection that develops.

Will mention a limited threat for gusty winds and small hail with
the strongest convection late this afternoon and evening. No
severe weather is anticipated. Lightning will be the main hazard
along with brief heavy downpours. A few scattered showers may
linger across portions of the Missouri Ozarks through the night
time hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

No major changes to the forecast offered by the 12z suite of model
output. Will continue to monitor the weak shear axis aloft that
will linger over/near the area into the first half of next week.
QPF signature is erratic and random from the models, and the main
upper level features at play support an isolated to widely
scattered chance of diurnal showers/storms. Most locations will
remain dry, but it will be something to keep in mind.

Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure will spread across the
Midwest and temperatures will warm to above average. Certainly
nothing out of the ordinary for late August/early September. Highs
each day will be a few degrees either side of 90, with lows in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A weak upper level disturbance will keep the threat for scattered
showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri into
Sunday. The best chance for storms through dawn will be around
Branson where a TEMPO group was inserted.

Meanwhile, confidence in MVFR fog has increased for the Joplin
area. We have therefore gone with prevailing MVFR (versus the
TEMPO group from earlier). There is still potential for IFR fog
late tonight if enough clearing can take place.

More thunderstorms will then be possible in the heating of the
day Sunday afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms.

Surface winds will remain light through Sunday evening out of the
southeast to south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





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