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000
FXUS66 KSGX 202029
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
128 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
COOLER WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY. IT MAY ALSO
SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INLAND ON SUN...AND THEN EXIT THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL THIN UNDER
THE BUILDING HIGH...AND IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RELIEF ALONG THE COAST...BUT
ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE COOLING...AND KEEP
IT MILD OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
TROUGH ARRIVES WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS WAS EXTENSIVE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF NW SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ONSHORE 4 TO
5 MBS TO THE EAST...AND WERE TRENDING OFFSHORE FROM NV AT AROUND 3
MBS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS ALONG THE
RIDGE LINES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MIDDAY TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING MARINE CLOUDS.

SHOULD BE A GREAT SUMMER EVENING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANOTHER
FINE DAY ON SUN. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE TRENDING SHALLOWER THROUGH
TUE WITH LESS EXTENSIVE NOCTURNAL CLOUDINESS AND A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK.

A CUT-OFF LOW WAS SPINNING OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WITHIN A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTPAC AND WESTERN U.S. THE
LOW WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY AND THEN PULL NE ON SUN AHEAD
OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A VORTMAX
SWINGING AROUND THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW. IT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE
OVER THE CWA TODAY...PROVIDING INSTABILITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN MTN/DESERT AREAS OF THE CWA. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
MOISTURE DRIFT FROM THE EAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE NOT GENERATING ANY
PRECIP HERE...BUT BASED ON THE PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERLIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WITH THE 12Z GFS/EC RUNS SHOWING 590+ DM 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
SOCAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARMER DAYS AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN...BUT NOT AS HOT AS EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT...SO THE THERMAL
TROUGH AT THE SFC SHOULD REMAIN INLAND...PROVIDING ONSHORE FLOW AND
MILDER MARINE AIR ALONG THE COAST.

EVEN THOUGH AUTUMN OFFICIALLY BEGINS TUE EVENING...SUMMER WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
THE WEATHER MAY BE MORE SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE. THE LATEST GFS/
ECMWF RUNS SHOW THE COLDEST TROUGH OF THE SEASON DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTPAC AND MOVING THROUGH CA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND MAY BRING RAIN TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BUFFER
THE COOLING FROM THE TROUGH THIS FAR SOUTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
202100Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-3000
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL OVER PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO
3000 FT MSL TO RETURN TO ALL COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 03Z
SUN...SPREADING 20-30 MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR TO THE COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z SUN.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT WITH BASES AOA 8000 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG














000
FXUS66 KSGX 202029
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
128 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
COOLER WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY. IT MAY ALSO
SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INLAND ON SUN...AND THEN EXIT THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL THIN UNDER
THE BUILDING HIGH...AND IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RELIEF ALONG THE COAST...BUT
ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE COOLING...AND KEEP
IT MILD OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
TROUGH ARRIVES WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS WAS EXTENSIVE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF NW SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ONSHORE 4 TO
5 MBS TO THE EAST...AND WERE TRENDING OFFSHORE FROM NV AT AROUND 3
MBS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS ALONG THE
RIDGE LINES OF THE MOUNTAINS. MIDDAY TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING MARINE CLOUDS.

SHOULD BE A GREAT SUMMER EVENING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANOTHER
FINE DAY ON SUN. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE TRENDING SHALLOWER THROUGH
TUE WITH LESS EXTENSIVE NOCTURNAL CLOUDINESS AND A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK.

A CUT-OFF LOW WAS SPINNING OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WITHIN A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTPAC AND WESTERN U.S. THE
LOW WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY AND THEN PULL NE ON SUN AHEAD
OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A VORTMAX
SWINGING AROUND THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW. IT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE
OVER THE CWA TODAY...PROVIDING INSTABILITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN MTN/DESERT AREAS OF THE CWA. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
MOISTURE DRIFT FROM THE EAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE NOT GENERATING ANY
PRECIP HERE...BUT BASED ON THE PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERLIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WITH THE 12Z GFS/EC RUNS SHOWING 590+ DM 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
SOCAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARMER DAYS AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN...BUT NOT AS HOT AS EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT...SO THE THERMAL
TROUGH AT THE SFC SHOULD REMAIN INLAND...PROVIDING ONSHORE FLOW AND
MILDER MARINE AIR ALONG THE COAST.

EVEN THOUGH AUTUMN OFFICIALLY BEGINS TUE EVENING...SUMMER WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
THE WEATHER MAY BE MORE SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE. THE LATEST GFS/
ECMWF RUNS SHOW THE COLDEST TROUGH OF THE SEASON DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTPAC AND MOVING THROUGH CA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND MAY BRING RAIN TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BUFFER
THE COOLING FROM THE TROUGH THIS FAR SOUTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
202100Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-3000
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL OVER PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO
3000 FT MSL TO RETURN TO ALL COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 03Z
SUN...SPREADING 20-30 MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR TO THE COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z SUN.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT WITH BASES AOA 8000 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG















000
FXUS66 KSGX 201535
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
835 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
COOLER WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY. IT MAY ALSO
SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INLAND ON SUN...AND THEN EXIT THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL THIN UNDER
THE BUILDING HIGH...AND IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RELIEF ALONG THE COAST...BUT
ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE COOLING...AND KEEP
IT MILD OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
TROUGH ARRIVES WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS WAS EXTENSIVE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING  WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND OFFSHORE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A VERY WEAK 2
DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2700 FT. THE SATURATED LAYER WAS ABOUT
700 FT THICK WITH THE TOP AROUND 3000 FT. WEAK ONSHORE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUED TO THE EAST BUT WERE TRENDING NEUTRAL TO NV.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NNW ACROSS THE DESERTS. KNXP HAD A 10K FT CEILING AT 15Z.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FINE LATE SUMMER DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEAK INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CLEAR
BY MIDDAY...AND THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...AND DRY...WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS INLAND.

A CUT-OFF LOW WAS SPINNING OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING...
WITHIN A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTPAC AND WESTERN
U.S. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY AND THEN PULL NE ON
SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON
A VORTMAX SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING. IT
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE TODAY...PROVIDING INSTABILITY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN MTN/DESERT AREAS OF THE
CWA. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES
SHOW SOME MOISTURE DRIFT FROM THE EAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT
IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
FUEL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT GENERATING ANY
PRECIP...BUT BASED ON PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERLIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WITH THE OVERNIGHT GFS/EC RUNS SHOWING 590+ DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER SOCAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARMER DAYS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN...BUT NOT AS HOT AS EARLIER THIS
WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT...SO
THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SFC SHOULD REMAIN INLAND...PROVIDING
ONSHORE FLOW AND MILDER MARINE AIR ALONG THE COAST.

EVEN THOUGH AUTUMN OFFICIALLY BEGINS TUE EVENING...SUMMER WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
THE WEATHER MAY BE MORE SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE. THE OVERNIGHT GFS/
ECMWF RUNS SHOW THE COLDEST TROUGH OF THE SEASON DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTPAC AND MOVING THROUGH CA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND MAY BRING RAIN TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BUFFER THE COOLING FROM THE TROUGH THIS FAR SOUTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
201500Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-2300 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL NOW COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND
INLAND VALLEYS. ALL TAF SITES WEST OF THE MTNS ARE AFFECTED. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AIRPORTS AFT 03Z SUN...SPREADING 20-30
MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT WITH BASES AOA 8000 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ANY STORMS AND CU WILL
DISSIPATE BY 02Z SUN. OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG












000
FXUS66 KSGX 201535
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
835 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
COOLER WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY. IT MAY ALSO
SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INLAND ON SUN...AND THEN EXIT THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL THIN UNDER
THE BUILDING HIGH...AND IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RELIEF ALONG THE COAST...BUT
ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE COOLING...AND KEEP
IT MILD OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
TROUGH ARRIVES WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS WAS EXTENSIVE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING  WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND OFFSHORE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A VERY WEAK 2
DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2700 FT. THE SATURATED LAYER WAS ABOUT
700 FT THICK WITH THE TOP AROUND 3000 FT. WEAK ONSHORE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUED TO THE EAST BUT WERE TRENDING NEUTRAL TO NV.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NNW ACROSS THE DESERTS. KNXP HAD A 10K FT CEILING AT 15Z.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FINE LATE SUMMER DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEAK INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CLEAR
BY MIDDAY...AND THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...AND DRY...WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS INLAND.

A CUT-OFF LOW WAS SPINNING OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING...
WITHIN A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTPAC AND WESTERN
U.S. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY AND THEN PULL NE ON
SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON
A VORTMAX SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING. IT
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE TODAY...PROVIDING INSTABILITY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN MTN/DESERT AREAS OF THE
CWA. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES
SHOW SOME MOISTURE DRIFT FROM THE EAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT
IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
FUEL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT GENERATING ANY
PRECIP...BUT BASED ON PATTERN...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERLIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WITH THE OVERNIGHT GFS/EC RUNS SHOWING 590+ DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER SOCAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARMER DAYS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN...BUT NOT AS HOT AS EARLIER THIS
WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT...SO
THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SFC SHOULD REMAIN INLAND...PROVIDING
ONSHORE FLOW AND MILDER MARINE AIR ALONG THE COAST.

EVEN THOUGH AUTUMN OFFICIALLY BEGINS TUE EVENING...SUMMER WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
THE WEATHER MAY BE MORE SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE. THE OVERNIGHT GFS/
ECMWF RUNS SHOW THE COLDEST TROUGH OF THE SEASON DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTPAC AND MOVING THROUGH CA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND MAY BRING RAIN TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BUFFER THE COOLING FROM THE TROUGH THIS FAR SOUTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
201500Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-2300 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL NOW COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND
INLAND VALLEYS. ALL TAF SITES WEST OF THE MTNS ARE AFFECTED. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AIRPORTS AFT 03Z SUN...SPREADING 20-30
MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT WITH BASES AOA 8000 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ANY STORMS AND CU WILL
DISSIPATE BY 02Z SUN. OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG











000
FXUS66 KSGX 201057
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
357 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH DESERT THIS AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY DEEP AS MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
COAST EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO
SWING NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. RIPPLES OF
ENERGY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THROUGH SOCAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE
MARGINAL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMBINED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...OVER THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH DESERT. WITH MARGINAL
MOISTURE ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD ALSO CONTAIN DRY LIGHTNING.
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT
MAY BE THE LAST OF THE STRONG ONSHORE INFLUXES ACROSS SAN DIEGO
AND ORANGE COUNTIES...AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. A
MODERATE WARMUP WILL THEN ENSUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE REGION.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER
ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS WELL AS A
SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED THIS FAR SOUTH SO WE`RE NOT MENTIONING
ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
201000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-2300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 3000 FT MSL WILL FILL IN OVER ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 12Z AND
SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE...INCLUDING KONT...BY 14Z.
STATUS CLEARING 17-19Z...RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER
21/03Z AND MOVING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR
BASES/TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT CU BASED NEAR 8000 FT MSL DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. ANY STORMS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
300 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 201057
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
357 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH DESERT THIS AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY DEEP AS MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
COAST EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO
SWING NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. RIPPLES OF
ENERGY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THROUGH SOCAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE
MARGINAL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT COMBINED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...OVER THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH DESERT. WITH MARGINAL
MOISTURE ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD ALSO CONTAIN DRY LIGHTNING.
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT
MAY BE THE LAST OF THE STRONG ONSHORE INFLUXES ACROSS SAN DIEGO
AND ORANGE COUNTIES...AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. A
MODERATE WARMUP WILL THEN ENSUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE REGION.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER
ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS WELL AS A
SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED THIS FAR SOUTH SO WE`RE NOT MENTIONING
ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
201000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-2300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 3000 FT MSL WILL FILL IN OVER ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 12Z AND
SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE...INCLUDING KONT...BY 14Z.
STATUS CLEARING 17-19Z...RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER
21/03Z AND MOVING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR
BASES/TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT CU BASED NEAR 8000 FT MSL DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. ANY STORMS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
300 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 200447
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A
DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER IS A LITTLE DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT THE STRATUS
COVERAGE IS NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD. ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
COVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THE CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS...BUT THE ADVANCING
UPPER LOW COULD DISRUPT THE COVERAGE SO IT MAY NOT BE THE UNIFORM
CLOUD DECK THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. 00Z WRF STILL OUTPUTTING LIGHT
QPF SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF PT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING. IT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...THEN BRIEFLY STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SATURDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NEVADA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NAM4 AND CANSAC GENERATE STILL GENERATE SMALL
QPF OVER THE SBD/RIV COUNTY MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER VORT MAX...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSTMS THERE. THE WRFEMS AND HRRR MODELS ARE DRY.

THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN HTS AND
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING. GREATER WARMING AND A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER MON-WED FROM WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE
GFS SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND GEM FORECAST A DEEP
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MTN AND DESERT
WINDS. THE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS ONTO WEAK RIDGING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A 100DM HEIGHT SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE GFS LATELY...AND HAVE TEMPERED THE
COOLING SOMEWHAT IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
200300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
BASES 1500-2000 FEET MSL AND SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
TOPS WILL BE AROUND 3000 FEET. LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN FAR INLAND
VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT SATURDAY BY 17-19Z. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS
BASED AROUND 8000 FEET AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM











000
FXUS66 KSGX 200447
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A
DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER IS A LITTLE DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT THE STRATUS
COVERAGE IS NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD. ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
COVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THE CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS...BUT THE ADVANCING
UPPER LOW COULD DISRUPT THE COVERAGE SO IT MAY NOT BE THE UNIFORM
CLOUD DECK THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. 00Z WRF STILL OUTPUTTING LIGHT
QPF SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF PT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING. IT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...THEN BRIEFLY STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SATURDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NEVADA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NAM4 AND CANSAC GENERATE STILL GENERATE SMALL
QPF OVER THE SBD/RIV COUNTY MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER VORT MAX...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSTMS THERE. THE WRFEMS AND HRRR MODELS ARE DRY.

THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN HTS AND
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING. GREATER WARMING AND A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER MON-WED FROM WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE
GFS SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND GEM FORECAST A DEEP
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MTN AND DESERT
WINDS. THE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS ONTO WEAK RIDGING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A 100DM HEIGHT SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE GFS LATELY...AND HAVE TEMPERED THE
COOLING SOMEWHAT IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
200300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
BASES 1500-2000 FEET MSL AND SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
TOPS WILL BE AROUND 3000 FEET. LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN FAR INLAND
VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT SATURDAY BY 17-19Z. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS
BASED AROUND 8000 FEET AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 192015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. THEN...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG
THE WEST COAST MAY BRING COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND SOME CONVECTIVE CUMULUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS WAS VERY SLOW TO CLEAR
TODAY...HELPING TO BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 3500 FEET...AND RECENT PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE REACHED 4000 FEET. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER
WAS AROUND 4000 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY...THE STRATUS MAY COME IN SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY...BUT IT SHOULD FILL INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE
LAYER...WHICH IMPLIES POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. SPEAKING OF
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN
DIEGO TO DAGGETT ARE DOWN TO 2.9 MB...WHEREAS THEY WERE 6.0 MB AT
THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO. THUS...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...WITH MAINLY GUSS IN THE 10S TO 20S.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW WILL SPLIT OUT OF IT...AND ASSUME A
POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTH FLOW ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY DRAW UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING
AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A PRETTY SLIM CHANCE...AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THE NAM12 IS PARTICULARLY DRY FOR OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOME
SMALL RISE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BRING SLIGHT WARMING THAT
DAY...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL STILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL.
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS.

A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AS WELL...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS/FOG INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MAYBE
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. GFS SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW CHANGES
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT RIGHT NOW THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW A DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER COOLING
TREND...WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW. RIGHT
NOW...MODELS DO NOT SHOW US GETTING PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
191934Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 3000 FEET THROUGH 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON. AFT 00Z THROUGH 06Z...THE STRATUS LAYER WILL REFORM OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND SPREAD RAPIDLY INLAND WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FEET
AND TOPS 3000-3500 FEET. BKN-OVC CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MTNS
THROUGH 16Z AND MIX OUT 17Z-19Z ON SAT MORNING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CU OVER THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
TERRAIN OBSCURATION ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES BELOW 4000 FT 06Z-
18Z SAT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CU AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF RIVERSIDE/SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
1230 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
1230 PM...THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET ON
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD






000
FXUS66 KSGX 192015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. THEN...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG
THE WEST COAST MAY BRING COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND SOME CONVECTIVE CUMULUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS WAS VERY SLOW TO CLEAR
TODAY...HELPING TO BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 3500 FEET...AND RECENT PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE REACHED 4000 FEET. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER
WAS AROUND 4000 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY...THE STRATUS MAY COME IN SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY...BUT IT SHOULD FILL INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE
LAYER...WHICH IMPLIES POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. SPEAKING OF
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN
DIEGO TO DAGGETT ARE DOWN TO 2.9 MB...WHEREAS THEY WERE 6.0 MB AT
THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO. THUS...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...WITH MAINLY GUSS IN THE 10S TO 20S.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW WILL SPLIT OUT OF IT...AND ASSUME A
POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTH FLOW ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY DRAW UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING
AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A PRETTY SLIM CHANCE...AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THE NAM12 IS PARTICULARLY DRY FOR OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOME
SMALL RISE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BRING SLIGHT WARMING THAT
DAY...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL STILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL.
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS.

A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AS WELL...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS/FOG INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MAYBE
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. GFS SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW CHANGES
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT RIGHT NOW THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW A DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER COOLING
TREND...WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW. RIGHT
NOW...MODELS DO NOT SHOW US GETTING PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
191934Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 3000 FEET THROUGH 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON. AFT 00Z THROUGH 06Z...THE STRATUS LAYER WILL REFORM OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND SPREAD RAPIDLY INLAND WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FEET
AND TOPS 3000-3500 FEET. BKN-OVC CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MTNS
THROUGH 16Z AND MIX OUT 17Z-19Z ON SAT MORNING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CU OVER THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
TERRAIN OBSCURATION ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES BELOW 4000 FT 06Z-
18Z SAT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CU AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF RIVERSIDE/SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
1230 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
1230 PM...THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET ON
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD







000
FXUS66 KSGX 191542
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
842 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A
WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.
THEN...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST MAY BRING
COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERCAST-TO-BROKEN CLOUDS DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS...AND
EVEN INTO THE CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO/BANNING PASS. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS...WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING
A RATHER THICK CLOUD LAYER RESULTING IN SOME DRIZZLE. IN OTHER
LOCATIONS...THE CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT THIN WITH SOME BREAKS IN
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 3500 FEET...AND RECENT PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE REACHED 4000 FEET. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER
IS AROUND 4000 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
CLEARING TODAY DUE TO THE WEAK INVERSION AND DIMINISHING ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL...AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW WILL SPLIT OUT OF IT...AND ASSUME A POSITION
JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT. WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY...THE STRATUS MAY COME IN SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...BUT IT SHOULD FILL INTO THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPEAKING OF WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 2.9
MB...WHEREAS THEY WERE 4.8 MB AT THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO.
THUS...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WITH MAINLY GUSS IN THE 20S TO 30S...SO THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTH
FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY DRAW UP ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BRING AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH DESERTS. HOWEVER...IT IS A PRETTY SLIM CHANCE...AS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THE NAM12 IS PARTICULARLY DRY
FOR OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME SMALL RISE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BRING
SLIGHT WARMING THAT DAY...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL STILL MOSTLY
BE BELOW NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE VALLEYS.

A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AS WELL...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS/FOG INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MAYBE
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD
BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND...WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DO NOT SHOW US GETTING
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
191513Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MARINE STRATUS WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS BTWN
1500 AND 3400 FT AND TOPS 3500-4000 FT MSL WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BKN WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS AFT 17Z THROUGH 19Z. AREAS ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE COASTAL SLOPES MAY BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. THE
STRATUS LAYER WILL REFORM NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD RAPIDLY INLAND
AGAIN AFT 00Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT AND
TOPS AROUND 3000 FT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OBSCURED BELOW 4500 FT
THROUGH 20Z...THEN CIGS WILL BECOME SCT-LOCALLY BKN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LOCAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ABOVE 4000 FT AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
FROM 235 AM DISCUSSION...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER TODAY. LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL OCCUR ON SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
BEACHES...SS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 191542
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
842 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A
WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.
THEN...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST MAY BRING
COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERCAST-TO-BROKEN CLOUDS DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS...AND
EVEN INTO THE CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO/BANNING PASS. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS...WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING
A RATHER THICK CLOUD LAYER RESULTING IN SOME DRIZZLE. IN OTHER
LOCATIONS...THE CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT THIN WITH SOME BREAKS IN
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 3500 FEET...AND RECENT PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE REACHED 4000 FEET. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER
IS AROUND 4000 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
CLEARING TODAY DUE TO THE WEAK INVERSION AND DIMINISHING ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL...AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW WILL SPLIT OUT OF IT...AND ASSUME A POSITION
JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT. WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY...THE STRATUS MAY COME IN SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...BUT IT SHOULD FILL INTO THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPEAKING OF WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 2.9
MB...WHEREAS THEY WERE 4.8 MB AT THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO.
THUS...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WITH MAINLY GUSS IN THE 20S TO 30S...SO THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTH
FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY DRAW UP ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BRING AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH DESERTS. HOWEVER...IT IS A PRETTY SLIM CHANCE...AS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THE NAM12 IS PARTICULARLY DRY
FOR OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME SMALL RISE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BRING
SLIGHT WARMING THAT DAY...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL STILL MOSTLY
BE BELOW NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE VALLEYS.

A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AS WELL...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS/FOG INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MAYBE
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD
BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND...WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DO NOT SHOW US GETTING
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
191513Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MARINE STRATUS WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS BTWN
1500 AND 3400 FT AND TOPS 3500-4000 FT MSL WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BKN WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS AFT 17Z THROUGH 19Z. AREAS ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE COASTAL SLOPES MAY BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. THE
STRATUS LAYER WILL REFORM NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD RAPIDLY INLAND
AGAIN AFT 00Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT AND
TOPS AROUND 3000 FT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OBSCURED BELOW 4500 FT
THROUGH 20Z...THEN CIGS WILL BECOME SCT-LOCALLY BKN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LOCAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ABOVE 4000 FT AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
FROM 235 AM DISCUSSION...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER TODAY. LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL OCCUR ON SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
BEACHES...SS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 191052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO RIGHT NEAR THE
COASTAL STRIP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF THE MARINE LATER TOOK PLACE LATE
THURSDAY AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECKS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS AND INLAND EMPIRE. UNSEASONABLY
DEEP MARINE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE ATTM. AS THE GRADIENTS SLOWLY
LAX THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BUT NOT TO
EXCESSIVE LEVELS. ANOTHER EAST PAC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEP MARINE
LATER INTRUSION AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1800-2300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 3000 FT WILL FILL IN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. STRATUS CLEARING 15-18Z...MOVING BACK INTO THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS 20/00-03Z AND SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR BASES/TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 191052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO RIGHT NEAR THE
COASTAL STRIP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF THE MARINE LATER TOOK PLACE LATE
THURSDAY AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECKS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS AND INLAND EMPIRE. UNSEASONABLY
DEEP MARINE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE ATTM. AS THE GRADIENTS SLOWLY
LAX THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BUT NOT TO
EXCESSIVE LEVELS. ANOTHER EAST PAC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEP MARINE
LATER INTRUSION AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1800-2300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 3000 FT WILL FILL IN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. STRATUS CLEARING 15-18Z...MOVING BACK INTO THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS 20/00-03Z AND SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR BASES/TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 190403
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...AND THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH ALSO LOWERED SURFACE
PRESSURES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHERE THE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND THE SAN GORGONIO PASS UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY.

THE PRODIGAL STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN ABSENT AT THE COAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS HAS RETURNED. LOW CLOUDS SPREAD QUICKLY INTO THE SAN DIEGO
VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH THE TROUGH TRANSITIONING INTO A
CLOSED LOW NEAR PT CONCEPTION. ON SATURDAY THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA. MODELS FCST A WEAK VORT MAX TO
DRIFT OVER SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR AND THERE WILL ONLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCES FOR EVEN THAT TO HAPPEN ARE QUITE LOW SINCE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING AND
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. IF THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS IT WOULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER...GUSTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT WINDS AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
190400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WILL COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 3000 FT
MSL. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LOCALLY OBSCURED...BUT ELSEWHERE MOST
VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY 18Z FRI IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL BKN CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST FRI
AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND AGAIN EARLY THU EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS THROUGH 07Z.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL STILL OCCUR
FRIDAY ON SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 190403
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...AND THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH ALSO LOWERED SURFACE
PRESSURES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHERE THE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND THE SAN GORGONIO PASS UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY.

THE PRODIGAL STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN ABSENT AT THE COAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS HAS RETURNED. LOW CLOUDS SPREAD QUICKLY INTO THE SAN DIEGO
VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH THE TROUGH TRANSITIONING INTO A
CLOSED LOW NEAR PT CONCEPTION. ON SATURDAY THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA. MODELS FCST A WEAK VORT MAX TO
DRIFT OVER SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR AND THERE WILL ONLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCES FOR EVEN THAT TO HAPPEN ARE QUITE LOW SINCE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING AND
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. IF THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS IT WOULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER...GUSTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT WINDS AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
190400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WILL COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 3000 FT
MSL. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LOCALLY OBSCURED...BUT ELSEWHERE MOST
VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY 18Z FRI IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL BKN CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST FRI
AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND AGAIN EARLY THU EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS THROUGH 07Z.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL STILL OCCUR
FRIDAY ON SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL







000
FXUS66 KSGX 182033
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH NO CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE
INVERSION AT AROUND 1600 FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT AROUND 620 MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO
INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS...AND 0.8 INCH OR LESS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
STABILITY...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE
FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THE DESERTS...WITH TEMPERATURES 8-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO.
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY...AS THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 7.8 MB
ONSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS ONLY 1.8 MB ONSHORE 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS AT THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS. WHITEWATER RAWS
REPORTED A 53 MPH GUST AT 1150 AM. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG IN THE SAN DIEGO DESERTS.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
182030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC
LOW CLOUDS BASED 1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET
MSL...WILL MOVE INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIMES AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS
MODERATE FOR THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
145 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS INTO THE
EVENING. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS ARE LIKELY ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER
FRIDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL







000
FXUS66 KSGX 182033
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH NO CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE
INVERSION AT AROUND 1600 FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT AROUND 620 MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO
INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS...AND 0.8 INCH OR LESS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
STABILITY...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE
FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THE DESERTS...WITH TEMPERATURES 8-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO.
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY...AS THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 7.8 MB
ONSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS ONLY 1.8 MB ONSHORE 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS AT THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS. WHITEWATER RAWS
REPORTED A 53 MPH GUST AT 1150 AM. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG IN THE SAN DIEGO DESERTS.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
182030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC
LOW CLOUDS BASED 1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET
MSL...WILL MOVE INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIMES AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS
MODERATE FOR THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
145 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS INTO THE
EVENING. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS ARE LIKELY ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER
FRIDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 181601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
901 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS WAS ABLE TO FORM THIS MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE INVERSION AT AROUND 1600
FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 620
MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND
GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1.3
INCHES IN THE DESERTS...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING STABILITY...THERE SHOULD
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.
DAY-TIME HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING 5-15 DEGREES LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. ALSO...THE WEAK MARINE
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD CLEARING TODAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS
THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LOOKS TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT...AND 6 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND
ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND LOCALLY 50 MPH.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
181630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY 18Z. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC LOW CLOUDS BASED
1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET MSL...WILL MOVE
INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE FOR THIS
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
845 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 181601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
901 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS WAS ABLE TO FORM THIS MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE INVERSION AT AROUND 1600
FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 620
MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND
GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1.3
INCHES IN THE DESERTS...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING STABILITY...THERE SHOULD
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.
DAY-TIME HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING 5-15 DEGREES LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. ALSO...THE WEAK MARINE
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD CLEARING TODAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS
THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LOOKS TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT...AND 6 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND
ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND LOCALLY 50 MPH.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
181630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY 18Z. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC LOW CLOUDS BASED
1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET MSL...WILL MOVE
INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE FOR THIS
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
845 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL







000
FXUS66 KSGX 180946
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
245 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN
WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS OFF
THE COAST WAS MAKING A SERIOUS PUSH INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT. SOME
LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AT THE COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT THE TREND IS
CLEAR AND UNAVOIDABLE. THE HEAT WAVE IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR WILL
FADE AS WE GET BACK TO NORMAL IN A HURRY TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY MAKE AN EARLY RUN AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ALSO...THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME
DECENT WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING. THE BIG CHANGE
COMES COURTESY OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEARING DOWN THE WEST COAST.
ON FRIDAY THIS THING WILL CUT OFF AND CIRCULATE IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RESPOND BY EXTENDING
COASTAL CLOUDS INTO THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SURGE RELAXES A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
STILL MAKE IT INTO SOME INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TODAY AND ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW SURROUNDING THIS LOW COULD DRAW
A WISP OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE IS VERY SLIGHT. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SOME WARMER
WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS NIGHTS AND MORNINGS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS PREVIOUSLY HAD A MONSTER RIDGE FORMING
ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT RECENT RUNS ARE GAINING
CONSISTENCY IN A TROUGH SOLUTION AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THAT
WOULD MEAN COOLER WEATHER AND A STRONGER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1200-1500
FT MSL WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z. SCT TO LOCALLY
BKN STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INLAND BY 00Z...SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2800 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
245 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 180946
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
245 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN
WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS OFF
THE COAST WAS MAKING A SERIOUS PUSH INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT. SOME
LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AT THE COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT THE TREND IS
CLEAR AND UNAVOIDABLE. THE HEAT WAVE IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR WILL
FADE AS WE GET BACK TO NORMAL IN A HURRY TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY MAKE AN EARLY RUN AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ALSO...THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME
DECENT WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING. THE BIG CHANGE
COMES COURTESY OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEARING DOWN THE WEST COAST.
ON FRIDAY THIS THING WILL CUT OFF AND CIRCULATE IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RESPOND BY EXTENDING
COASTAL CLOUDS INTO THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SURGE RELAXES A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
STILL MAKE IT INTO SOME INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TODAY AND ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW SURROUNDING THIS LOW COULD DRAW
A WISP OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE IS VERY SLIGHT. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SOME WARMER
WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS NIGHTS AND MORNINGS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS PREVIOUSLY HAD A MONSTER RIDGE FORMING
ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT RECENT RUNS ARE GAINING
CONSISTENCY IN A TROUGH SOLUTION AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THAT
WOULD MEAN COOLER WEATHER AND A STRONGER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1200-1500
FT MSL WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z. SCT TO LOCALLY
BKN STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INLAND BY 00Z...SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2800 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
245 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 180400
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RETURN AND MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRY AND
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS TODAY. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN WAS UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGEST
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND RECORDED 0.54" OF RAIN. A 24 HOUR PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBSITE...AS IS A MAP WITH 48 HOURS RAIN
TOTALS. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND A CAPPING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 15000 FEET AS SEEN ON THE
00Z SOUNDING. 500 MB NVA ALSO SUPPRESSED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THE HEAT ABATED TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 4-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE IT WAS
"COOLER" IN A RELATIVE SENSE...IT WAS STILL HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND LOW 100S...BEACH COMMUNITIES EXCEPTED. THE NATIONS HOT
SPOTS WERE PALM SPRINGS AND THERMAL WITH A HIGH OF 103 AT BOTH
SITES.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AS A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND RESULT IN STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS SPREADING DEEP INTO
THE VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MORPHS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER PT
CONCEPTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK A VORTICITY CENTER
ACROSS SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK SPEED MAX ALOFT.
500 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C AND LI`S FALL TO NEAR 0 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT FEEL THE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
10Z. SOME BKN STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. BASES WILL MOSTLY BE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS 1500 TO 2000 FT MSL. MOST VIS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI TONIGHT/THU. SCT WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL BKN
STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER 17Z THU...WITH STRATUS CHANCES GREATER THU
EVENING WITH BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT REMNANT CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KNOTS AT SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 9 PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL OCCUR ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES...WITH HIGHEST
SURF IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY
AND DIMINISH THE SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL









000
FXUS66 KSGX 180400
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RETURN AND MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRY AND
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS TODAY. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN WAS UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGEST
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND RECORDED 0.54" OF RAIN. A 24 HOUR PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBSITE...AS IS A MAP WITH 48 HOURS RAIN
TOTALS. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND A CAPPING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 15000 FEET AS SEEN ON THE
00Z SOUNDING. 500 MB NVA ALSO SUPPRESSED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THE HEAT ABATED TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 4-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE IT WAS
"COOLER" IN A RELATIVE SENSE...IT WAS STILL HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND LOW 100S...BEACH COMMUNITIES EXCEPTED. THE NATIONS HOT
SPOTS WERE PALM SPRINGS AND THERMAL WITH A HIGH OF 103 AT BOTH
SITES.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AS A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND RESULT IN STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS SPREADING DEEP INTO
THE VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MORPHS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER PT
CONCEPTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK A VORTICITY CENTER
ACROSS SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK SPEED MAX ALOFT.
500 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C AND LI`S FALL TO NEAR 0 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT FEEL THE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
10Z. SOME BKN STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. BASES WILL MOSTLY BE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS 1500 TO 2000 FT MSL. MOST VIS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI TONIGHT/THU. SCT WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL BKN
STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER 17Z THU...WITH STRATUS CHANCES GREATER THU
EVENING WITH BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT REMNANT CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KNOTS AT SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 9 PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL OCCUR ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES...WITH HIGHEST
SURF IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY
AND DIMINISH THE SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL








000
FXUS66 KSGX 180018 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
520 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 180018 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
520 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL














000
FXUS66 KSGX 180017 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
520 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 180017 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
520 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL












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