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000
FXUS66 KSGX 300410
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE U.S. MEXICAN BORDER HAS RESULTED IN A
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH WARM MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL STREAM OFF THE PACIFIC AND
DIM THE SUN AT TIMES...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE HIGH
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING MONSOONAL FLOW TO
RESUME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW MAY BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION BY SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLIM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING NE OFF THE PACIFIC THIS EVENING..WHILE
AREAS OF SMOKE WERE DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO/ORANGE/
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN THE MID-LEVELS. MARINE CLOUDS WERE JUST
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AROUND SUNSET. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD
NW WINDS OF 10-15KT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE SFC THROUGH ABOUT 7K FT.
THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE CAPE. MODERATE
ONSHORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF AROUND 8 MBS WERE PRESENT FROM
KSAN TO THE LOWER DESERT...SUPPORTING WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT THE WINDIEST SPOTS IN THE DESERTS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A THICK SHEET OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NE OFF OF THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS ELEVATED
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CARRY IT MOSTLY NORTH OF THE SGX CWA...BUT
SOME OF IT WILL CLIP NORTHERN AREAS ON WED/THU. UNDER THIS SHEET OF
CLOUDS JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET...A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE WAS EVIDENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DRIFTING SOUTH. THIS SMOKE WAS LIKELY FROM THE
YOSEMITE AREA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RED-TINGED SUNSET OBSERVED
IN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING.

THE SEASONAL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN BORDER
AREA...WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH...TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS BY SUN MORNING. THE HIGH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS ELEVATED WITH WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH...BOTH THE LATEST
AVAILABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS DRAG AN EASTERLY WAVE NORTH THROUGH
MEXICO AND OVER SOCAL THIS WEEKEND. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
OVER THE SGX CWA FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR SAT IN THE MTNS/DESERTS...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED AND INCREASED IF LATER RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
WEST.

ONCE THAT WAVE PASSES...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST...
KEEPING SOCAL DRY AND SEASONAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN
ALSO FAVORS A BETTER DEVELOPED MARINE LAYER WITH ASSOCIATED
NOCTURNAL CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS.

CONVECTION....CHANCES LOOK PRETTY SLIM FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 00Z NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM HERNAN. MU CAPE
VALUES OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS NEAR 300 ARE INDICATED IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER BY AFTERNOON. HEATING SHOULD BE LIMITED UNDER THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT WITH BREAKS AND ON THE EDGES...IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT. HARD TO CALL AT THIS POINT SO WE ARE CARRYING BELOW
THRESHOLD POPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BEST CHANCE IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MTNS.

THE WEEKEND EVENT COULD BE INTERESTING SINCE BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A
TRACK THAT IS MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE GFS...WHICH BRINGS THE
TROUGH NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN WE
HAVE LOW POPS FOR CONVECTION FRI IN THE MTNS...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SAT MORNING THROUGH
SUN MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. TOO HARD
TO QUANTIFY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS INCIPIENT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
300345Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS...CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST...WILL SPREAD A FEW MILES INLAND INTO SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AFTER 07Z. TIMING AT KSAN AND KCRQ IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT
MOST LIKELY SOME BKN CIGS WILL OCCUR THERE IN THE 08Z-15Z RANGE.
BASES WILL BE RATHER LOW...600-900 FT MSL...AND HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN COULD BE OBSCURED. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI...POSSIBLY EVEN
BELOW 1 MI...COULD OCCUR OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MESAS. IN ORANGE COUNTY...STRATUS IS LESS LIKELY...AND
KSNA WILL MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN VFR. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR 15-16Z
WED. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FT MSL WILL
OCCUR THROUGH WED. A SMOKE LAYER AROUND 10000 FT MSL WILL MOST
LIKELY NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES NEAR THE SURFACE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FT MSL
WILL OCCUR THROUGH WED...WITH SOME CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 9000 FT
MSL WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL










000
FXUS66 KSGX 300410
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE U.S. MEXICAN BORDER HAS RESULTED IN A
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH WARM MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL STREAM OFF THE PACIFIC AND
DIM THE SUN AT TIMES...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE HIGH
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING MONSOONAL FLOW TO
RESUME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW MAY BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION BY SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLIM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING NE OFF THE PACIFIC THIS EVENING..WHILE
AREAS OF SMOKE WERE DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO/ORANGE/
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN THE MID-LEVELS. MARINE CLOUDS WERE JUST
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AROUND SUNSET. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD
NW WINDS OF 10-15KT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE SFC THROUGH ABOUT 7K FT.
THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE CAPE. MODERATE
ONSHORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF AROUND 8 MBS WERE PRESENT FROM
KSAN TO THE LOWER DESERT...SUPPORTING WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT THE WINDIEST SPOTS IN THE DESERTS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A THICK SHEET OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NE OFF OF THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS ELEVATED
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CARRY IT MOSTLY NORTH OF THE SGX CWA...BUT
SOME OF IT WILL CLIP NORTHERN AREAS ON WED/THU. UNDER THIS SHEET OF
CLOUDS JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET...A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE WAS EVIDENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DRIFTING SOUTH. THIS SMOKE WAS LIKELY FROM THE
YOSEMITE AREA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RED-TINGED SUNSET OBSERVED
IN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING.

THE SEASONAL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN BORDER
AREA...WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH...TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS BY SUN MORNING. THE HIGH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS ELEVATED WITH WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH...BOTH THE LATEST
AVAILABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS DRAG AN EASTERLY WAVE NORTH THROUGH
MEXICO AND OVER SOCAL THIS WEEKEND. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
OVER THE SGX CWA FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR SAT IN THE MTNS/DESERTS...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED AND INCREASED IF LATER RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
WEST.

ONCE THAT WAVE PASSES...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST...
KEEPING SOCAL DRY AND SEASONAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN
ALSO FAVORS A BETTER DEVELOPED MARINE LAYER WITH ASSOCIATED
NOCTURNAL CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS.

CONVECTION....CHANCES LOOK PRETTY SLIM FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 00Z NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM HERNAN. MU CAPE
VALUES OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS NEAR 300 ARE INDICATED IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER BY AFTERNOON. HEATING SHOULD BE LIMITED UNDER THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT WITH BREAKS AND ON THE EDGES...IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT. HARD TO CALL AT THIS POINT SO WE ARE CARRYING BELOW
THRESHOLD POPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BEST CHANCE IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MTNS.

THE WEEKEND EVENT COULD BE INTERESTING SINCE BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A
TRACK THAT IS MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE GFS...WHICH BRINGS THE
TROUGH NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN WE
HAVE LOW POPS FOR CONVECTION FRI IN THE MTNS...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SAT MORNING THROUGH
SUN MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. TOO HARD
TO QUANTIFY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS INCIPIENT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
300345Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS...CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST...WILL SPREAD A FEW MILES INLAND INTO SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AFTER 07Z. TIMING AT KSAN AND KCRQ IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT
MOST LIKELY SOME BKN CIGS WILL OCCUR THERE IN THE 08Z-15Z RANGE.
BASES WILL BE RATHER LOW...600-900 FT MSL...AND HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN COULD BE OBSCURED. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI...POSSIBLY EVEN
BELOW 1 MI...COULD OCCUR OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MESAS. IN ORANGE COUNTY...STRATUS IS LESS LIKELY...AND
KSNA WILL MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN VFR. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR 15-16Z
WED. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FT MSL WILL
OCCUR THROUGH WED. A SMOKE LAYER AROUND 10000 FT MSL WILL MOST
LIKELY NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES NEAR THE SURFACE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FT MSL
WILL OCCUR THROUGH WED...WITH SOME CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 9000 FT
MSL WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL









000
FXUS66 KSGX 292031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
131 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS BEING SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK TO CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SLOW COOLING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE
ALOFT MOVES IN. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST AND SOMETIMES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO
VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRIER...MORE
STABLE PROFILE THAN THAT OF 12Z YESTERDAY...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
DOWN TO 1.47 INCHES...WITH NO SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX
OF 4.9. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO STABLE...AND SO THUNDERSTORMS WERE REMOVED
FROM THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE REASON FOR THE DRYING IS THE FLOW
TURNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DUE TO THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
BEING PATCHY AT BEST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
INTERFERENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM HERNAN. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS...THE MOST WE SHOULD GET FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY VIRGA.

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING
OCCURRING...RESULTING IN DAY-TIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED IN MORE OF A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GEM
CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY POTENT WAVE OR UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WHILE THE GFS STILL
HAS A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING DRYING AND SUPPRESSING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SINCE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE FOR AT LEAST THE PAST TWO
RUNS...AND SINCE THE GEM IS SHOWING IT AS WELL...HAVE ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS
AND VALLEYS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS AT SOME POINT IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

ALSO...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COOL DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER 500
MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
292015Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400
FT MSL. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5-10 SM AND COULD REACH
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1500Z. VIS MAY
DROP TO BETWEEN 3-5 SM WHERE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ON THE COASTAL
MESAS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 292031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
131 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS BEING SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK TO CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SLOW COOLING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE
ALOFT MOVES IN. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST AND SOMETIMES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO
VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRIER...MORE
STABLE PROFILE THAN THAT OF 12Z YESTERDAY...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
DOWN TO 1.47 INCHES...WITH NO SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX
OF 4.9. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO STABLE...AND SO THUNDERSTORMS WERE REMOVED
FROM THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE REASON FOR THE DRYING IS THE FLOW
TURNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DUE TO THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
BEING PATCHY AT BEST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
INTERFERENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM HERNAN. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS...THE MOST WE SHOULD GET FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY VIRGA.

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING
OCCURRING...RESULTING IN DAY-TIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED IN MORE OF A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GEM
CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY POTENT WAVE OR UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WHILE THE GFS STILL
HAS A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING DRYING AND SUPPRESSING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SINCE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE FOR AT LEAST THE PAST TWO
RUNS...AND SINCE THE GEM IS SHOWING IT AS WELL...HAVE ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS
AND VALLEYS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS AT SOME POINT IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

ALSO...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COOL DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER 500
MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
292015Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400
FT MSL. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5-10 SM AND COULD REACH
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1500Z. VIS MAY
DROP TO BETWEEN 3-5 SM WHERE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ON THE COASTAL
MESAS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT






000
FXUS66 KSGX 291600
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS
BEING SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRIER
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE RETURN OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
BACK TO CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW
WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN. NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND
SOMETIMES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS ABSENT FROM THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE HERNAN ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
SHOWS A DRIER...MORE STABLE PROFILE THAN THAT OF 12Z YESTERDAY...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN TO 1.47 INCHES...WITH NO SURFACE BASED
CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX OF 4.9. THIS IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...AND SO THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON THAT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD POP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE REASON FOR THE
DRYING IS THE FLOW TURNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY TO
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
BEING PATCHY AT BEST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
INTERFERENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM HERNAN. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS...THE MOST WE SHOULD GET FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA.

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING
OCCURRING...RESULTING IN DAY-TIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED IN MORE OF A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNING. BY SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A
POTENTIALLY POTENT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING
GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRYING AND SUPPRESSING
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SUNDAY
FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW. ALSO...LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
291530Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400
FT MSL. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5-10 SM AND COULD REACH
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1500Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT






000
FXUS66 KSGX 291600
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS
BEING SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRIER
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE RETURN OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
BACK TO CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW
WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN. NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND
SOMETIMES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS ABSENT FROM THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE HERNAN ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
SHOWS A DRIER...MORE STABLE PROFILE THAN THAT OF 12Z YESTERDAY...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN TO 1.47 INCHES...WITH NO SURFACE BASED
CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX OF 4.9. THIS IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...AND SO THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON THAT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD POP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE REASON FOR THE
DRYING IS THE FLOW TURNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY TO
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
BEING PATCHY AT BEST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
INTERFERENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM HERNAN. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS...THE MOST WE SHOULD GET FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA.

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING
OCCURRING...RESULTING IN DAY-TIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED IN MORE OF A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNING. BY SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A
POTENTIALLY POTENT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING
GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRYING AND SUPPRESSING
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SUNDAY
FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW. ALSO...LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
291530Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400
FT MSL. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5-10 SM AND COULD REACH
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1500Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 291113
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
415 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRYING OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS UNDERWAY...BUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK...BUT WITH SOME RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND
DRYING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN
OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DRYING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS THAT WERE EASTERLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING HAD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
LOWER DESERTS THAT WERE AROUND 2 INCHES LATE SUNDAY AND HAD FALLEN
TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES LATE MONDAY HAVE FALLEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR
THE RIDGE TOPS ONTO THE DESERT SLOPES. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN...GENERALLY TAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING FROM THAT MOISTURE...BUT
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES...COASTAL STRATUS
SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE WORKSTATION WRF
ISN`T OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN...MAINLY BRINGING IT
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP OF
FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER DESERTS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A DAY FASTER WITH DRYING AFTER SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER DRYING OF THE GFS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BRING MINOR COOLING FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
290945Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL
AND COULD REACH KSAN AND KCRQ FOR A TIME BETWEEN 12-15Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...REACHING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 30/06Z AND
SPREADING 10-15 SM INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS












000
FXUS66 KSGX 291113
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
415 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRYING OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS UNDERWAY...BUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK...BUT WITH SOME RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND
DRYING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN
OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DRYING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS THAT WERE EASTERLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING HAD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
LOWER DESERTS THAT WERE AROUND 2 INCHES LATE SUNDAY AND HAD FALLEN
TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES LATE MONDAY HAVE FALLEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR
THE RIDGE TOPS ONTO THE DESERT SLOPES. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN...GENERALLY TAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING FROM THAT MOISTURE...BUT
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES...COASTAL STRATUS
SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE WORKSTATION WRF
ISN`T OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN...MAINLY BRINGING IT
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP OF
FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER DESERTS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A DAY FASTER WITH DRYING AFTER SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER DRYING OF THE GFS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BRING MINOR COOLING FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
290945Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL
AND COULD REACH KSAN AND KCRQ FOR A TIME BETWEEN 12-15Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...REACHING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 30/06Z AND
SPREADING 10-15 SM INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS











000
FXUS66 KSGX 290358
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
858 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONALLY WARM MID-SUMMER WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL STRIP NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA BY 6 PM PDT. THE
00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A SHALLOW...WEAK INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS HAD DEVELOPED BELOW 5K FT...WHILE 5 KT
SE WINDS CONTINUED ABOVE TO AROUND 12K FT. SOME DRYING WAS INDICATED
AS WELL WITH THE PW COMING IN AT 1.48 INCH. MANY SFC STATIONS
REPORTED DRYING AS WELL...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DROPS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 DEGREES F TODAY. A THERMAL LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WAS MAINTAINING ONSHORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF 6 MBS.

A DRIER...MORE STABLE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER SOCAL WILL DECREASE CHANCES
FOR FURTHER CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FLOW IS
THE RESULT OF A SHIFT IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK...OPENING THE
DOOR FOR MORE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH JUST
OFF THE COAST WILL COMPLICATE THE PICTURE THEN...AND MAY KEEP THE
BULK OF THE MONSOONAL FLOW JUST EAST OF THE CWA. THAT TROUGH SHOULD
ALSO HELP TO PROP UP THE MARINE LAYER A BIT MORE...ALONG WITH THE
NOCTURNAL CLOUDS/FOG. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

CONVECTION...THE LATEST 00Z NAM RUN SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TOMORROW WITH WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10KT. THIS LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AFTER TUE...SOME MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN GETS
PULLED NE TOWARD THE REGION BUT SHOULD BE HIGHER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE A BIT NEXT WEEK...BUT BOTH SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOCAL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE SEASONAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER...WITHOUT ANY
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
290345Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 1100 FT MSL WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD A FEW
MILES INLAND. KSAN AND KCRQ COULD HAVE A CIG FOR A FEW
HOURS...THOUGH THIS IS UNLIKELY AT KSNA. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MESAS.
MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR 14-16Z. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL WILL OCCUR.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL
WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUE. ADDITIONAL CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND LOCALLY OVER THE DESERTS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS POSSIBLE
TO 35000 FT MSL. VISIBILITY WILL MOSTLY BE UNRESTRICTED THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
845 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 290050 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
550 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA BY 6 PM PDT.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE TRAILING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. 28/1200 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODEL RUNS HINT AT PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
AND DISAGREE ON TIMING...HAVE LEFT STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A PATCHY LOW CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE UP TO 5 SM INLAND BETWEEN 28
/0900Z-1300Z... AFFECTING KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN/OVC LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE. SKC
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT OR ABOVE 8000
FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT












000
FXUS66 KSGX 290050 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
550 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA BY 6 PM PDT.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE TRAILING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. 28/1200 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODEL RUNS HINT AT PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
AND DISAGREE ON TIMING...HAVE LEFT STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A PATCHY LOW CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE UP TO 5 SM INLAND BETWEEN 28
/0900Z-1300Z... AFFECTING KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN/OVC LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE. SKC
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT OR ABOVE 8000
FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT











000
FXUS66 KSGX 282051
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
151 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AS
SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICO/TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER...AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CA. COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE TRAILING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. 28/1200 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODEL RUNS HINT AT PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
AND DISAGREE ON TIMING...HAVE LEFT STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A PATCHY LOW CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE UP TO 5 SM INLAND BETWEEN 28
/0900Z-1300Z... AFFECTING KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN/OVC LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE. SKC
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN TSTORMS AND ISOLATED DESERT
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 29/0200Z WITH BASES
6000-8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKWYARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT









000
FXUS66 KSGX 282051
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
151 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AS
SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICO/TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER...AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CA. COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE TRAILING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. 28/1200 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODEL RUNS HINT AT PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
AND DISAGREE ON TIMING...HAVE LEFT STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A PATCHY LOW CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE UP TO 5 SM INLAND BETWEEN 28
/0900Z-1300Z... AFFECTING KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN/OVC LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE. SKC
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN TSTORMS AND ISOLATED DESERT
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 29/0200Z WITH BASES
6000-8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKWYARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 281635
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AS
SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OVER SW CA. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER MOVING NORTH OVER NORTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY. THE 28/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS SOUNDING...AND ALSO
CALCULATED 1.65 IN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY BEEN
RESTRICTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH UPPER-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE
TRAILING BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY DUE TO THE VARIOUS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
281530Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...VCSH OVER COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
28/1800Z. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED...WITH
BASES AOA 10000 FT MSL. A FEW/SCT STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH BASES NEAR
1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400 FT MSL WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SCT/BKN LOW CLOUD DECK WITH SIMILAR BASE AND TOPS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE 5-10 SM INLAND AFT
28/0900Z. THIS WOULD AFFECT KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN TSTORMS AND ISOLATED DESERT TSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 28/1800Z
WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN
CLOUD LAYERS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS LATE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT









000
FXUS66 KSGX 281635
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AS
SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OVER SW CA. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER MOVING NORTH OVER NORTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY. THE 28/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS SOUNDING...AND ALSO
CALCULATED 1.65 IN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY BEEN
RESTRICTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH UPPER-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE
TRAILING BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY DUE TO THE VARIOUS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
281530Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...VCSH OVER COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
28/1800Z. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED...WITH
BASES AOA 10000 FT MSL. A FEW/SCT STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH BASES NEAR
1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400 FT MSL WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SCT/BKN LOW CLOUD DECK WITH SIMILAR BASE AND TOPS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE 5-10 SM INLAND AFT
28/0900Z. THIS WOULD AFFECT KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN TSTORMS AND ISOLATED DESERT TSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 28/1800Z
WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN
CLOUD LAYERS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS LATE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT










000
FXUS66 KSGX 281023
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
325 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER DESERTS PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY POOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
GENERALLY POOR FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON IDENTIFIABLE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARIZONA
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THAT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MORNING INITIATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALSO
GENERATED A MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. THAT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DESERTS YESTERDAY...HELPING THE GENERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY. THIS CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD HAVE A LESSENING INFLUENCE ON FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA 24 HOURS AGO HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVERNIGHT SO FAR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER IT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ARE BLANKED ACROSS MUCH FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAKER MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEW WRINKLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THE POSSIBILTY FOR SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SLOW THE
EXPECTED DRYING TREND SOMEWHAT...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM HERNAN...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

THE CONTINUING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RATHER PATCHY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MORE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT AS CLEAN WITH THE DRYING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
280930Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CB BASES 8-10 KFT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 25 KFT MSL. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL IMPACTING KCRQ AND KSAN AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. PATCHY
STRATUS REDEVELOPING AFTER 29/04Z WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 35 KFT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AOA 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
240 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 281023
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
325 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER DESERTS PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY POOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
GENERALLY POOR FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON IDENTIFIABLE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARIZONA
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THAT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MORNING INITIATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALSO
GENERATED A MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. THAT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DESERTS YESTERDAY...HELPING THE GENERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY. THIS CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD HAVE A LESSENING INFLUENCE ON FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA 24 HOURS AGO HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVERNIGHT SO FAR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER IT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ARE BLANKED ACROSS MUCH FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAKER MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEW WRINKLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THE POSSIBILTY FOR SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SLOW THE
EXPECTED DRYING TREND SOMEWHAT...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM HERNAN...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

THE CONTINUING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RATHER PATCHY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MORE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT AS CLEAN WITH THE DRYING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
280930Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CB BASES 8-10 KFT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 25 KFT MSL. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL IMPACTING KCRQ AND KSAN AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. PATCHY
STRATUS REDEVELOPING AFTER 29/04Z WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 35 KFT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AOA 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
240 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS











000
FXUS66 KSGX 280404
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR
NORMAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL
ALSO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...LIMITING AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 PM PDT...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO TREK
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT FROM EAST TO WEST. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND WERE INCREASING OVER THE HIGH DESERT.
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED A VORTEX OF CLOUDS SWIRLING
NW THROUGH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...THE REMNANT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER AZ EARLIER IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WERE SPOTTY.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL HAD AN AREA OF DARKENING AND POSSIBLE
WEAK PVA MOVING NORTH THROUGH BAJA CA. THERE WAS NO WEATHER EVIDENT
WITH IT AT 0345Z. ELSEWHERE...INTENSE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS AZ FROM NW TO SE. STRONGEST CELLS WERE ALONG THE MEXICAN
BORDER SOUTH OF TUCSON. MOST OF SW AZ WAS CLEAR. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD 1.71 INCH OF PW AND MODEST CAPE OF AROUND 800 J/KG
ABOVE 11K FT.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST...REACHING ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. A WELL
DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER BAJA CA OVERNIGHT...AND OVER SOCAL MON MORNING. AS THIS
WAVE PASSES...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...ADVECTING
IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS ALLOW WIND TO BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...
OPENING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER MINOR PUSH OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
SO WARM SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY WITH THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN THIS WEEK.
A SEASONAL THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND CONTINUE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST...WITH PERIODS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS THE MARINE
LAYER EFFECTS BECOME MORE LIMITED.

CONVECTION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE DRIFTING
NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CA. BUT THERE HAS BEEN FEW CLOUDS AND
LITTLE TO NO ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING. PW VALUES ARE RUNNING CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REGION...SO WILL CARRY LOW POPS
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON MORNING ON THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT IF THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT AGAIN.
MID-LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY...TURNING SW ON MON
MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS INCREASING ELEVATED
CAPE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE APPROACHING WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. FOR
TOMORROW...THE CHANCE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

IF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TOMORROW...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGH PW AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN 10000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NON-UNIFORM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
1000-1500 AT KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA. LOW CLOUDS CLEARING AFT 16Z. MONDAY
EVENING...LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 29/04Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFT 17Z MONDAY WITH
BASES 060-080...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM PDT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE












000
FXUS66 KSGX 280404
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR
NORMAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL
ALSO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...LIMITING AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 PM PDT...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO TREK
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT FROM EAST TO WEST. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND WERE INCREASING OVER THE HIGH DESERT.
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED A VORTEX OF CLOUDS SWIRLING
NW THROUGH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...THE REMNANT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER AZ EARLIER IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WERE SPOTTY.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL HAD AN AREA OF DARKENING AND POSSIBLE
WEAK PVA MOVING NORTH THROUGH BAJA CA. THERE WAS NO WEATHER EVIDENT
WITH IT AT 0345Z. ELSEWHERE...INTENSE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS AZ FROM NW TO SE. STRONGEST CELLS WERE ALONG THE MEXICAN
BORDER SOUTH OF TUCSON. MOST OF SW AZ WAS CLEAR. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD 1.71 INCH OF PW AND MODEST CAPE OF AROUND 800 J/KG
ABOVE 11K FT.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST...REACHING ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. A WELL
DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER BAJA CA OVERNIGHT...AND OVER SOCAL MON MORNING. AS THIS
WAVE PASSES...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...ADVECTING
IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS ALLOW WIND TO BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...
OPENING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER MINOR PUSH OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
SO WARM SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY WITH THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN THIS WEEK.
A SEASONAL THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND CONTINUE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST...WITH PERIODS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS THE MARINE
LAYER EFFECTS BECOME MORE LIMITED.

CONVECTION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE DRIFTING
NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CA. BUT THERE HAS BEEN FEW CLOUDS AND
LITTLE TO NO ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING. PW VALUES ARE RUNNING CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REGION...SO WILL CARRY LOW POPS
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON MORNING ON THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT IF THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT AGAIN.
MID-LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY...TURNING SW ON MON
MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS INCREASING ELEVATED
CAPE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE APPROACHING WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. FOR
TOMORROW...THE CHANCE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

IF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TOMORROW...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGH PW AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN 10000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NON-UNIFORM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
1000-1500 AT KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA. LOW CLOUDS CLEARING AFT 16Z. MONDAY
EVENING...LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 29/04Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFT 17Z MONDAY WITH
BASES 060-080...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM PDT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE











000
FXUS66 KSGX 272048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO CREATE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING RESTRICTED
TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 100 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM NEAR BIG BEAR. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN TEXAS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS THE CWA...AND A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...MCV...CROSSING FROM WESTERN AZ TO
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT RESEMBLES A
HURRICANE WITH THE CIRCULATION AND EYE-LIKE FORMATION. THE MCV WAS
PART OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...THAT DEVELOPED OVER
ARIZONA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION PERSISTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER THIS MORNING WAS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. THIS
WAS LIKELY A RESULT OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAVERSING OVER THE
REGION FROM A MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER AZ OVERNIGHT. 30 LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE DETECTED JUST OVER AND OFF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COAST...WITH A GAGE IN DEL MAR PICKING UP 0.57 INCHES OF RAIN. A
RAINFALL SUMMARY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RAINFALL OBSERVED TODAY. THE
MAIN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE...AND SHOULD
BE ISOLATED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE ONE
FACTOR WILL BE IF THE CLOUD COVER INHIBITS THE DIURNAL HEATING TO
GET STORMS DEVELOPING. HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH
OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL TRAVERSE WESTWARD TOWARDS
SW CA BY TUESDAY...AND HELP TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGE TOPS
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH WILL CREATE A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS IS WHERE THE 27/1200 GFS AND 27/1200 ECMWF DIFFER AS
THEY BOTH RETURN SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA...BUT TIMING
AND AMOUNTS VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS. AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS DRY DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
272030Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL COULD
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 28/08Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME SCT BY 16Z
MON. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BASES AROUND 8000
FT MSL AND LAYERS TO 35000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...ALONG
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
2 PM PDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...PG








000
FXUS66 KSGX 272048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO CREATE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING RESTRICTED
TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 100 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM NEAR BIG BEAR. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN TEXAS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS THE CWA...AND A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...MCV...CROSSING FROM WESTERN AZ TO
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT RESEMBLES A
HURRICANE WITH THE CIRCULATION AND EYE-LIKE FORMATION. THE MCV WAS
PART OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...THAT DEVELOPED OVER
ARIZONA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION PERSISTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER THIS MORNING WAS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. THIS
WAS LIKELY A RESULT OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAVERSING OVER THE
REGION FROM A MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER AZ OVERNIGHT. 30 LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE DETECTED JUST OVER AND OFF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COAST...WITH A GAGE IN DEL MAR PICKING UP 0.57 INCHES OF RAIN. A
RAINFALL SUMMARY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RAINFALL OBSERVED TODAY. THE
MAIN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE...AND SHOULD
BE ISOLATED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE ONE
FACTOR WILL BE IF THE CLOUD COVER INHIBITS THE DIURNAL HEATING TO
GET STORMS DEVELOPING. HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH
OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL TRAVERSE WESTWARD TOWARDS
SW CA BY TUESDAY...AND HELP TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGE TOPS
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH WILL CREATE A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS IS WHERE THE 27/1200 GFS AND 27/1200 ECMWF DIFFER AS
THEY BOTH RETURN SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA...BUT TIMING
AND AMOUNTS VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS. AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS DRY DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
272030Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL COULD
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 28/08Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME SCT BY 16Z
MON. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BASES AROUND 8000
FT MSL AND LAYERS TO 35000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...ALONG
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
2 PM PDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...PG









000
FXUS66 KSGX 271622
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
922 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL ALSO CREATE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING RESTRICTED
TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 900 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY...AND DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST. THE 27/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH A PWAT OF 1.62 IN AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND FAR INLAND VALLEYS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FROM THIS DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL TRAVERSE WESTWARD TOWARDS
SW CA BY TUESDAY...AND HELP TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGE TOPS
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH WILL CREATE A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS IS WHERE THE 27/0600 GFS AND 27/0000 ECMWF DIFFER AS
THEY BOTH RETURN SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA...BUT TIMING
AND AMOUNTS VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
271500Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITHIN
ABOUT 10 SM OF THE COAST. PERIODS OF CIGS 900-1300 FT MSL AT THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS...BECOMING SCT AFT 16Z. BKN-OVC CIGS 1000-1500 FT
MSL AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AGAIN AFTER 28/08Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000
FEET WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BASES AROUND 8000
FT MSL AND LAYERS TO 35000 FT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...ALONG
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
9 AM PDT...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...PG








000
FXUS66 KSGX 271622
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
922 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL ALSO CREATE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING RESTRICTED
TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 900 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY...AND DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST. THE 27/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH A PWAT OF 1.62 IN AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND FAR INLAND VALLEYS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FROM THIS DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL TRAVERSE WESTWARD TOWARDS
SW CA BY TUESDAY...AND HELP TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGE TOPS
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH WILL CREATE A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS IS WHERE THE 27/0600 GFS AND 27/0000 ECMWF DIFFER AS
THEY BOTH RETURN SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA...BUT TIMING
AND AMOUNTS VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
271500Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITHIN
ABOUT 10 SM OF THE COAST. PERIODS OF CIGS 900-1300 FT MSL AT THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS...BECOMING SCT AFT 16Z. BKN-OVC CIGS 1000-1500 FT
MSL AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AGAIN AFTER 28/08Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000
FEET WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BASES AROUND 8000
FT MSL AND LAYERS TO 35000 FT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...ALONG
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
9 AM PDT...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...PG









000
FXUS66 KSGX 271119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
420 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRYING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS INTO MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER AND
ONSHORE FLOW BRING AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. RADAR RETURNS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN WEAK
AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS NORTHWARD INTO ORANGE COUNTY.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND FAR INLAND VALLEYS. CELL MOVEMENT AND
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER 5000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS GENERALLY
TRY TO MOVE THIS CIRCULATION CENTER NORTHWARD...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ACROSS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS FAIRLY PATCHY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WITH GREATER COVERAGE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DRYING ALOFT OCCURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND EXPAND
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRYING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN
DESERTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA FOR SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
270945Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...STRATUS REMAINING PATCHY THIS MORNING
WITHIN ABOUT 10 SM OF THE COAST. BRIEF PERIODS OF CIGS 900-1300 FT
MSL POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH 16Z...AND AGAIN AFTER
28/08Z. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BASES NEAR 8000 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 35 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY SFC WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
2 AM PDT...SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










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