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000
FXUS66 KSGX 222002
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
102 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING AND
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ACCORDING
TO LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
LACK OF STRATUS THIS MORNING...IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN ANOTHER 4 DM COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE
LAYER FURTHER...WITH VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...OR
MAYBE NONE AT ALL...ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...FRIDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS RISING TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ANY NIGHT
AND MORNING MARINE LAYER APPEARANCE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY AND IN THE FORM OF FOG...AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW.

COOLING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. ON
SATURDAY...DAY-TIME HIGHS LOOK TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN AND THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME WARMING
DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR
NORMAL AND THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING SHALLOWER AGAIN. THERES THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THAT IS STILL 9 TO 10 DAYS OUT...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON
THAT OCCURRING YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
222000Z...EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AFTER 06Z. WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 500-800 FEET
MSL AND VIS 3-5 SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY LOW ON LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND ANY LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...GRADUALLY FADING THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 221524
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING
AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AND PATCHIER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A
MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 1100 FEET WITH 24 HOUR WARMING
FROM 950 MB THROUGH THE REST OF THE PROFILE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP IN
ORANGE COUNTY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING FOG. THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER IS AS RESULT OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS IS LIKELY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL COASTAL WATER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS...AS THE SAN
DIEGO TO TONOPAH GRADIENT IS 5.9 MB OFFSHORE CURRENTLY...WHEREAS IT
WAS 0.1 MB ONSHORE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN ANOTHER 4 DM COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE
LAYER FURTHER...WITH VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...OR
MAYBE NONE AT ALL...ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS RISING TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THURSDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
APPEARANCE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND IN THE FORM OF
FOG...AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW.

COOLING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. ON
SATURDAY...DAY-TIME HIGHS LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN AND
THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME WARMING
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL AND THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING SHALLOWER
AGAIN. THE FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THE
GFS SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INLAND INTO UTAH/COLORADO AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WORK-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
221530Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM ORANGE
COUNTY THIS MORNING. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW
ON LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 220949
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
249 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MAKING A SHALLOWER APPEARANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORNING STRATUS RELEGATED TO
THE COASTAL STRIP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN
RELATION TO THE FLAT HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...THEN PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AZ/NM AROUND 592 DM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP ACROSS ALL AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING A
WIDESPREAD DRAMATIC COOL DOWN TO OUR REGION...AS A RESULT OF A
MASSIVE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE CLOSEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF SAN
DIEGO...TEMPERATURES WILL SWAY FROM NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTLY...MID
NEXT WEEK IS HINTING AT A DEVELOPING INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM THAT
COULD GENERATE AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AROUND THURSDAY. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
220930Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE
AROUND 1000 FEET MSL. AREAS VIS 3-5SM ON COASTAL MESAS. FULL SCATTER
OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16Z. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 220949
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
249 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MAKING A SHALLOWER APPEARANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORNING STRATUS RELEGATED TO
THE COASTAL STRIP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN
RELATION TO THE FLAT HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...THEN PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AZ/NM AROUND 592 DM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP ACROSS ALL AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING A
WIDESPREAD DRAMATIC COOL DOWN TO OUR REGION...AS A RESULT OF A
MASSIVE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE CLOSEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF SAN
DIEGO...TEMPERATURES WILL SWAY FROM NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTLY...MID
NEXT WEEK IS HINTING AT A DEVELOPING INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM THAT
COULD GENERATE AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AROUND THURSDAY. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
220930Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE
AROUND 1000 FEET MSL. AREAS VIS 3-5SM ON COASTAL MESAS. FULL SCATTER
OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16Z. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 220436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING SHOWED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT 1500 FEET...ABOUT 1000
FEET LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL STAY SHALLOW THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE ABSENCE OF THIS COOLER
MARINE AIRMASS WILL BRING WARMING TO INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS FROM
85-90. THE HIGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE
MARINE LAYER FROM THE COASTAL ZONES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE SHARPLY TO
START THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST BRINGS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN MODERATE-HIGH AGREEMENT...WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERING BY ONLY 2-4 DM. DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE
A RESULT OF HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A SMALLER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SIMILAR LOW-MODERATE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS REPRESENTED IN EACH MODELS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DECLINE 5-10 DEGREES SATURDAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECLINE OF 3-5 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. THE INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO REACH THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER BENIGN WITH
NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS. MODELS SPREAD INCREASES RAPIDLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF "ANA" INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 10
MILES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 06Z...THEN BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT
MSL...DECREASING TO 800 FT MSL...POSSIBLY LESS...AFTER 11Z WED. TOPS
WILL BE TO 1200 FT MSL. ORANGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE PATCHY
STRATUS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 2-4 MI
WILL OCCUR MOSTLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z IN COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 2 MI. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BETWEEN
14-16Z WED...WITH LESS STRATUS WED NIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY HAS HAD SEAS OF 10 FEET SO FAR THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO
DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE 5-7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL BE MODERATELY LONG...15
SECONDS TONIGHT...SHORTENING TO 13 SECONDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEST FACING
BEACHES WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE VERSUS TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE SURF WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET WITH A FEW SETS TO 7 FEET. SURF
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/BA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 220436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING SHOWED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT 1500 FEET...ABOUT 1000
FEET LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL STAY SHALLOW THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE ABSENCE OF THIS COOLER
MARINE AIRMASS WILL BRING WARMING TO INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS FROM
85-90. THE HIGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE
MARINE LAYER FROM THE COASTAL ZONES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE SHARPLY TO
START THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST BRINGS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN MODERATE-HIGH AGREEMENT...WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERING BY ONLY 2-4 DM. DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE
A RESULT OF HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A SMALLER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SIMILAR LOW-MODERATE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS REPRESENTED IN EACH MODELS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DECLINE 5-10 DEGREES SATURDAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECLINE OF 3-5 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. THE INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO REACH THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER BENIGN WITH
NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS. MODELS SPREAD INCREASES RAPIDLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF "ANA" INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 10
MILES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 06Z...THEN BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT
MSL...DECREASING TO 800 FT MSL...POSSIBLY LESS...AFTER 11Z WED. TOPS
WILL BE TO 1200 FT MSL. ORANGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE PATCHY
STRATUS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 2-4 MI
WILL OCCUR MOSTLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z IN COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 2 MI. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BETWEEN
14-16Z WED...WITH LESS STRATUS WED NIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY HAS HAD SEAS OF 10 FEET SO FAR THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO
DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE 5-7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL BE MODERATELY LONG...15
SECONDS TONIGHT...SHORTENING TO 13 SECONDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEST FACING
BEACHES WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE VERSUS TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE SURF WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET WITH A FEW SETS TO 7 FEET. SURF
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/BA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 212015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW CA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRESSURE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND
WILL LOWER HIGHS AND CREATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON SUNDAY...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SLIGHT WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

THE 21/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONG TERM. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO OUR
SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 589 DM BY THURSDAY...CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND VALLEYS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL
DEVELOP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CA WILL CREATE A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

HIGHS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
211945Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST...MOSTLY IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY...AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CIGS AROUND
700-1200 FEET MSL...SPREADING ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
MESAS AND OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
EARLIER...BY 16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
1245 PM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE
OUTER WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
1245 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE LARGER SURF
TODAY MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA AND
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211628
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CREATE NEAR-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SW CA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRESSURE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND WILL LOWER
HIGH AND CREATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON
SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SLIGHT WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 8 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE
21/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A WEAK 5 DEG C MARINE LAYER
INVERSION...WITH LOW CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2800 FT MSL. FLOW ALONG THE
COLUMN WAS MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK MARINE LAYER
INVERSION WILL LET MOST AREAS WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEAR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER.

THE 21/0000 UTC ECMWF AND 21/0600 GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...THEN DIFFER IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 589 DM BY THURSDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND
VALLEYS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL
DEVELOP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...A
SHORT- WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CA WILL CREATE A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE GFS HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHWEST CA. THE LIKELY RESULT WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS...AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
211615Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITY BY 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST...MOSTLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 700-1200 FEET MSL...SPREADING ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10
MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL MESAS AND OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT EARLIER...BY 16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
915 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
915 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA AND IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING
DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211628
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CREATE NEAR-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SW CA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRESSURE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND WILL LOWER
HIGH AND CREATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON
SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SLIGHT WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 8 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE
21/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A WEAK 5 DEG C MARINE LAYER
INVERSION...WITH LOW CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2800 FT MSL. FLOW ALONG THE
COLUMN WAS MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK MARINE LAYER
INVERSION WILL LET MOST AREAS WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEAR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER.

THE 21/0000 UTC ECMWF AND 21/0600 GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...THEN DIFFER IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 589 DM BY THURSDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND
VALLEYS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL
DEVELOP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...A
SHORT- WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CA WILL CREATE A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE GFS HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHWEST CA. THE LIKELY RESULT WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS...AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
211615Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITY BY 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST...MOSTLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 700-1200 FEET MSL...SPREADING ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10
MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL MESAS AND OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT EARLIER...BY 16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
915 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
915 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA AND IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING
DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM











000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM











000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 210426
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP A DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
BRINGING COOLER DAYS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE
VALLEYS THIS EVENING. A WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE MARINE
IDENTIFIES THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE AIRMASS
IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WHICH WILL PROMOTE FASTER CLEARING
TUESDAY ALONG WITH MINOR COOLING.

ON WEDNESDAY AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. WARMEST DAYS WILL
BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS IS A STRONGER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF
ITS ENERGY WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FOR AN APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOWN HERE. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH BRINGING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER PT CONCEPTION. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED DUE
TO THE RECENT POOR TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF. THE PREFERRED GFS
MODEL IS WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A MARINE LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
PROJECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA
GETTING PICKED UP IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND HEADING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE LONG RANGE PROGS
FORECAST A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REACHING THE WEST COAST NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO WELCOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA.

&&

.AVIATION...
210300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH BASES OF 1400-2000 FT MSL. CLOUD
TOPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FT MSL. THROUGH
14Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH 18-25 MILES INLAND OVER SAN DIEGO AND
ORANGE COUNTIES...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. RESTRICTED VIS OF 3 SM OR LESS WILL
OCCUR WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN...THIS INCLUDES
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...AND KRNM. LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME FEW TO SCT
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SKC PREVAILING IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 03Z
WEDNESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SKC IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH 12Z. A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET
AT 15 SEC. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...WITH THE RIP CURRENT DANGER AT ITS GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ON WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER INLAND.
THE DRY AIR WILL TREND FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL TO
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH BRIEFLY IN THE MOST WIND PRONE PASS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR
LESS THIS PERIOD. INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO
15-20 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA









000
FXUS66 KSGX 210426
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP A DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
BRINGING COOLER DAYS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE
VALLEYS THIS EVENING. A WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE MARINE
IDENTIFIES THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE AIRMASS
IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WHICH WILL PROMOTE FASTER CLEARING
TUESDAY ALONG WITH MINOR COOLING.

ON WEDNESDAY AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. WARMEST DAYS WILL
BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS IS A STRONGER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF
ITS ENERGY WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FOR AN APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOWN HERE. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH BRINGING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER PT CONCEPTION. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED DUE
TO THE RECENT POOR TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF. THE PREFERRED GFS
MODEL IS WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A MARINE LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
PROJECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA
GETTING PICKED UP IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND HEADING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE LONG RANGE PROGS
FORECAST A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REACHING THE WEST COAST NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO WELCOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA.

&&

.AVIATION...
210300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH BASES OF 1400-2000 FT MSL. CLOUD
TOPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FT MSL. THROUGH
14Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH 18-25 MILES INLAND OVER SAN DIEGO AND
ORANGE COUNTIES...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. RESTRICTED VIS OF 3 SM OR LESS WILL
OCCUR WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN...THIS INCLUDES
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...AND KRNM. LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME FEW TO SCT
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SKC PREVAILING IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 03Z
WEDNESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SKC IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH 12Z. A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET
AT 15 SEC. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...WITH THE RIP CURRENT DANGER AT ITS GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ON WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER INLAND.
THE DRY AIR WILL TREND FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL TO
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH BRIEFLY IN THE MOST WIND PRONE PASS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR
LESS THIS PERIOD. INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO
15-20 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA










000
FXUS66 KSGX 202014
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
114 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS INLAND. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT PASSES...
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHRINKING BACK TO
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FLOW
WEAKENS. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
WEST WITH COOLER DAYS AND A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG.



&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS WAS STUBBORN TO CLEAR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEY
AREAS THIS MORNING. BY 1 PM THERE WAS STILL SOME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND A FEW MORE CUMULUS HAD POPPED OVER THE HIGHER MTN CRESTS.
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER AND DESERTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
WEAK ONSHORE AT MIDDAY AND WINDS WERE LIGHT.

THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INLAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF MORE RAPIDLY ON TUE SUE TO THE ADVECTION OF
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR SKIES AND
YET ANOTHER FINE AUTUMN DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE PASSES AND ON THE DESERTS SLOPES
LATE TODAY...AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUE AS WELL.

A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NOCAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. IT WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER... AND AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUE. ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SW
AND AMPLIFY NE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRI. THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...AND MAY EVEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND...RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER DAYS....ESPECIALLY
INLAND. BY SAT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CA COAST AND BEGIN
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST 12Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE LOOKING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE. IF THAT TREND CONTINUES...A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
MARINE LAYER PRECIP MAY HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED W OF THE MTNS FOR SUN
MORNING.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE
AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN SLIP SAT...AND RETURN TO AVERAGE SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN SOME AREAS...BUT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR INLAND...THERE WILL BE LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS DUE TO THE DRY AIR. MUCH COOLER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER TUE...AND THE LINGERING
HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MESAS WED THROUGH FRI MORNINGS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY OVER CA...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
201930Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT AND TOPS TO 3500 FT. COASTAL
TAF SITES CONTINUE TO HAVE BKN-OVC CIGS 2000-2500 FT MSL. THESE
SHOULD BECOME SCT BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN
TO COASTAL TAF SITES AFT 00Z TUE...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 2000 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INLAND BY 12Z TUE
WITH REDUCED VIS IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN AND CLOUDS INTERSECT.
CLEARING TO THE COAST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
200 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET. THE NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...AND THE RIP CURRENT DANGER WILL BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND LOCALLY INTO THE
DESERTS...OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER INLAND.
THE DRY AIR WILL TREND FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL
TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH BRIEFLY IN THE MOST WIND PRONE PASS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR
LESS THIS PERIOD. INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO
15-20 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG
















000
FXUS66 KSGX 202014
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
114 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS INLAND. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT PASSES...
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHRINKING BACK TO
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FLOW
WEAKENS. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
WEST WITH COOLER DAYS AND A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG.



&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS WAS STUBBORN TO CLEAR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEY
AREAS THIS MORNING. BY 1 PM THERE WAS STILL SOME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND A FEW MORE CUMULUS HAD POPPED OVER THE HIGHER MTN CRESTS.
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER AND DESERTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
WEAK ONSHORE AT MIDDAY AND WINDS WERE LIGHT.

THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INLAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF MORE RAPIDLY ON TUE SUE TO THE ADVECTION OF
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR SKIES AND
YET ANOTHER FINE AUTUMN DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE PASSES AND ON THE DESERTS SLOPES
LATE TODAY...AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUE AS WELL.

A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NOCAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. IT WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER... AND AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUE. ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SW
AND AMPLIFY NE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRI. THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...AND MAY EVEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND...RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER DAYS....ESPECIALLY
INLAND. BY SAT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CA COAST AND BEGIN
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST 12Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE LOOKING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE. IF THAT TREND CONTINUES...A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
MARINE LAYER PRECIP MAY HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED W OF THE MTNS FOR SUN
MORNING.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE
AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN SLIP SAT...AND RETURN TO AVERAGE SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN SOME AREAS...BUT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR INLAND...THERE WILL BE LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS DUE TO THE DRY AIR. MUCH COOLER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER TUE...AND THE LINGERING
HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MESAS WED THROUGH FRI MORNINGS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY OVER CA...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
201930Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT AND TOPS TO 3500 FT. COASTAL
TAF SITES CONTINUE TO HAVE BKN-OVC CIGS 2000-2500 FT MSL. THESE
SHOULD BECOME SCT BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN
TO COASTAL TAF SITES AFT 00Z TUE...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 2000 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INLAND BY 12Z TUE
WITH REDUCED VIS IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN AND CLOUDS INTERSECT.
CLEARING TO THE COAST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
200 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET. THE NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...AND THE RIP CURRENT DANGER WILL BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND LOCALLY INTO THE
DESERTS...OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER INLAND.
THE DRY AIR WILL TREND FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL
TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH BRIEFLY IN THE MOST WIND PRONE PASS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR
LESS THIS PERIOD. INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO
15-20 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG

















000
FXUS66 KSGX 201525
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
825 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS INLAND. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT PASSES...
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHRINKING BACK TO
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FLOW
WEAKENS. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
WEST WITH COOLER DAYS AND A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG.



&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS THICKENED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE CLOUD LAYER WAS LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL
EXTENDED FAR INLAND WITH PATCHY FOG IN SOME VALLEYS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A 5 DEGREE C INVERSION BASE NEAR 2500 FT... WHICH WAS
ALMOST 1K FT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILED IN
THE MID LEVELS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BELOW TO THE SFC. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK AND WINDS WERE LIGHT AT 8 AM
PDT.

IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
MARINE STRATUS BURNS AWAY AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID OCTOBER. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE PASSES
AND ON THE DESERTS SLOPES LATER TODAY...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUE...OTHERWISE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS/DESERTS.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY...SWING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...
AND AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SW AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES NE
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRI. THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
WEAKEN AND MAY EVEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND...RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER DAYS. BY SAT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE CA COAST AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE
THU/FRI...THEN SLIP SAT...AND RETURN TO AVERAGE SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN SOME AREAS...BUT WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND SKIES ARE CLEAR INLAND THERE WILL BE LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS
DUE TO THE DRY AIR.

GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER TUE...AND THE LINGERING
HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MESAS WED THROUGH FRI MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
201530Z...LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS
THIS MORNING. BASES ARE 1500-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS ARE AROUND 3200 FT
MSL. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 MI...EXCEPT SOME INLAND AREAS
WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN INTERSECTS WITH CLOUDS. EXPECT CLEARING TO THE
COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO COASTAL
TAF SITES AFT 00Z TUE...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INLAND BY 12Z WITH REDUCED VIS IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
AND CLOUDS INTERSECT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...AND THE RIP CURRENT DANGER WILL BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND LOCALLY INTO THE
DESERTS...OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER INLAND.
THE DRY AIR WILL TREND FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL
TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 MPH BRIEFLY IN THE MOST WIND PRONE PASS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILL AREAS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS
THIS PERIOD. INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO AROUND
15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG













000
FXUS66 KSGX 201525
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
825 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS INLAND. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT PASSES...
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHRINKING BACK TO
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FLOW
WEAKENS. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
WEST WITH COOLER DAYS AND A RETURN OF MARINE CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG.



&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS THICKENED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE CLOUD LAYER WAS LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL
EXTENDED FAR INLAND WITH PATCHY FOG IN SOME VALLEYS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A 5 DEGREE C INVERSION BASE NEAR 2500 FT... WHICH WAS
ALMOST 1K FT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILED IN
THE MID LEVELS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BELOW TO THE SFC. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK AND WINDS WERE LIGHT AT 8 AM
PDT.

IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
MARINE STRATUS BURNS AWAY AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID OCTOBER. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE PASSES
AND ON THE DESERTS SLOPES LATER TODAY...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUE...OTHERWISE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS/DESERTS.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY...SWING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...
AND AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ON WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SW AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES NE
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRI. THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
WEAKEN AND MAY EVEN TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND...RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER DAYS. BY SAT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE CA COAST AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE
THU/FRI...THEN SLIP SAT...AND RETURN TO AVERAGE SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN SOME AREAS...BUT WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND SKIES ARE CLEAR INLAND THERE WILL BE LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS
DUE TO THE DRY AIR.

GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER TUE...AND THE LINGERING
HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MESAS WED THROUGH FRI MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
201530Z...LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS
THIS MORNING. BASES ARE 1500-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS ARE AROUND 3200 FT
MSL. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 MI...EXCEPT SOME INLAND AREAS
WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN INTERSECTS WITH CLOUDS. EXPECT CLEARING TO THE
COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO COASTAL
TAF SITES AFT 00Z TUE...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INLAND BY 12Z WITH REDUCED VIS IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
AND CLOUDS INTERSECT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...AND THE RIP CURRENT DANGER WILL BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND LOCALLY INTO THE
DESERTS...OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER INLAND.
THE DRY AIR WILL TREND FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL
TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 MPH BRIEFLY IN THE MOST WIND PRONE PASS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILL AREAS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS
THIS PERIOD. INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO AROUND
15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG














000
FXUS66 KSGX 201115
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
415 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CALIFORNIA MAINTAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING WARMING. ANOTHER THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEST ON SUNDAY BRINGING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
WITH COOLING AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS AND
FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH EXPANDING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY...THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO NEAR TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GREATEST STRATUS COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS WITH PATCHIER COVERAGE EXTENDING
INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A SIMILAR INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE GREATER
COVERAGE POSSIBLE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENING FROM THE SOUTH AND LOWER LEVEL TRENDING WEAKLY
OFFSHORE...STRATUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHIER AND NOT
EXTEND AS FAR INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING INTO THURSDAY AND
SLOWER WARMING INTO FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE WARMEST
DAYS. THIS WOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK LOWER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO STRATUS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEST BRINGING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY WITH COOLING TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. WITH
THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...
200930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IF RANDOMLY FILL UP
THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1500 FEET MSL
WITH TOPS UP TO 2500-3000 FEET...AND MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5SM.
SCATTER OUT BY 16-17Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP RELATIVELY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS GOING UNDER A CIG OF 1500 FEET MSL
AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WITH WIND WAVES PRODUCE
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST FACING
BEACHES AND SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE...AND RIP CURRENT DANGER WILL BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 200427
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN
INTO FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
DAYS AND LESS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
COOLER NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE VALLEYS
TONIGHT...AND CLEAR BY MID-MORNING.

A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND
SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...GENERATING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN MODERATELY DEEP WITH LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERATE SOME OFFSHORE
FLOW AS WELL. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAK...PEAKING AT
ABOUT -6 MB SAN-TPH WED MORNING...WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. EXPECT JUST SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WIND
PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT BEST. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH OF AN OFFSHORE PUSH AT NIGHT TO KEEP ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
AND FOG THAT SURVIVES BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT OF THE COASTAL
AREAS. OVERALL WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE GEM ON THE FASTER END...THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE BRINGING IT THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY...AND THE EC LAGGING
BEHIND BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. EITHER WAY WILL SEE A COOLING TREND NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WILL BE LIMITED TO
MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE.


&&

.AVIATION...
200410Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. TIME OF ARRIVAL AT AIRPORTS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS...BUT THE STRATUS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06-07Z...SO MOST AIRPORTS SHOULD
HAVE A BROKEN CIG BETWEEN ABOUT 07Z AND 16Z MONDAY. BASES WILL BE
2000-2500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL...WITH TERRAIN LOCALLY
OBSCURED. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. MOSTLY SCT CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS AFTER 16Z MONDAY. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND MONDAY EVENING. A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...PEAKING IN THE
OUTER WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
DECREASE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...THE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL AFFECT WEST FACING
BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. LOCAL SURF TO 8
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
THE SWELL WILL BE AT ITS PEAK. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE ELEVATED SURF. THE RIP CURRENT DANGER WILL BE GREATEST LATE
TUESDAY MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WED MORNING IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
EXCEPT IN THESE WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PASSES...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE WINDS 15 MPH OR LESS THIS PERIOD.
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT OR
LESS EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL







000
FXUS66 KSGX 200427
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN
INTO FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
DAYS AND LESS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
COOLER NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE VALLEYS
TONIGHT...AND CLEAR BY MID-MORNING.

A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND
SEASONAL WEATHER MONDAY. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...GENERATING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN MODERATELY DEEP WITH LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERATE SOME OFFSHORE
FLOW AS WELL. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAK...PEAKING AT
ABOUT -6 MB SAN-TPH WED MORNING...WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. EXPECT JUST SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WIND
PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT BEST. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH OF AN OFFSHORE PUSH AT NIGHT TO KEEP ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
AND FOG THAT SURVIVES BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT OF THE COASTAL
AREAS. OVERALL WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE GEM ON THE FASTER END...THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE BRINGING IT THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY...AND THE EC LAGGING
BEHIND BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. EITHER WAY WILL SEE A COOLING TREND NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WILL BE LIMITED TO
MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE.


&&

.AVIATION...
200410Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. TIME OF ARRIVAL AT AIRPORTS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS...BUT THE STRATUS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06-07Z...SO MOST AIRPORTS SHOULD
HAVE A BROKEN CIG BETWEEN ABOUT 07Z AND 16Z MONDAY. BASES WILL BE
2000-2500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL...WITH TERRAIN LOCALLY
OBSCURED. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. MOSTLY SCT CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS AFTER 16Z MONDAY. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND MONDAY EVENING. A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...PEAKING IN THE
OUTER WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
DECREASE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...THE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL AFFECT WEST FACING
BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. LOCAL SURF TO 8
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
THE SWELL WILL BE AT ITS PEAK. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE ELEVATED SURF. THE RIP CURRENT DANGER WILL BE GREATEST LATE
TUESDAY MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WED MORNING IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
EXCEPT IN THESE WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PASSES...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE WINDS 15 MPH OR LESS THIS PERIOD.
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT OR
LESS EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL






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