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000
FXUS66 KSGX 180421
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG NEAR THE COAST. COOLER WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE CLOSEST LOW CLOUDS WERE ABOUT 200
MILES OFF COAST. THE AIRMASS IS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AT THE COAST. THAT GAP WILL CLOSE
OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE
BEACHES...BUT WEAK COLD AIR DRAINAGE TOWARD SUNRISE WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOST OF THE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE
MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE
DEEPER. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ALL AREAS. ON SUNDAY THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BE JUST AS WARM AS SATURDAY.

COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST. ON TUESDAY A SPLIT JET PATTERN DEVELOPS WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 0.85" PRECIPITABLE WATER FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NEAR SATURATION TO 8000 FEET. IF THIS TROUGH COMES ASHORE AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IT WILL DEFINITELY BRING PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 500 MB COLD CORE
TEMPERATURES OF -27C WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DOWN TO 5000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE
60S AND LOW 70S IN THE DESERTS...AND 30 AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION... 180330Z...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFT 18/0900Z. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH UP AGAINST THE
BEACHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS WITH A CEILING. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRATUS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5 TO 8
MILES AFT 19/0600Z WITH BASES AROUND 1000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 1 NM OR LESS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 180421
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG NEAR THE COAST. COOLER WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE CLOSEST LOW CLOUDS WERE ABOUT 200
MILES OFF COAST. THE AIRMASS IS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AT THE COAST. THAT GAP WILL CLOSE
OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE
BEACHES...BUT WEAK COLD AIR DRAINAGE TOWARD SUNRISE WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOST OF THE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE
MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE
DEEPER. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ALL AREAS. ON SUNDAY THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BE JUST AS WARM AS SATURDAY.

COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST. ON TUESDAY A SPLIT JET PATTERN DEVELOPS WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 0.85" PRECIPITABLE WATER FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NEAR SATURATION TO 8000 FEET. IF THIS TROUGH COMES ASHORE AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IT WILL DEFINITELY BRING PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 500 MB COLD CORE
TEMPERATURES OF -27C WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DOWN TO 5000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE
60S AND LOW 70S IN THE DESERTS...AND 30 AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION... 180330Z...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFT 18/0900Z. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH UP AGAINST THE
BEACHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS WITH A CEILING. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRATUS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5 TO 8
MILES AFT 19/0600Z WITH BASES AROUND 1000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 1 NM OR LESS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 180421
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG NEAR THE COAST. COOLER WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE CLOSEST LOW CLOUDS WERE ABOUT 200
MILES OFF COAST. THE AIRMASS IS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AT THE COAST. THAT GAP WILL CLOSE
OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE
BEACHES...BUT WEAK COLD AIR DRAINAGE TOWARD SUNRISE WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOST OF THE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE
MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE
DEEPER. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ALL AREAS. ON SUNDAY THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BE JUST AS WARM AS SATURDAY.

COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST. ON TUESDAY A SPLIT JET PATTERN DEVELOPS WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 0.85" PRECIPITABLE WATER FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NEAR SATURATION TO 8000 FEET. IF THIS TROUGH COMES ASHORE AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IT WILL DEFINITELY BRING PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 500 MB COLD CORE
TEMPERATURES OF -27C WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DOWN TO 5000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE
60S AND LOW 70S IN THE DESERTS...AND 30 AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION... 180330Z...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFT 18/0900Z. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH UP AGAINST THE
BEACHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS WITH A CEILING. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRATUS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5 TO 8
MILES AFT 19/0600Z WITH BASES AROUND 1000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 1 NM OR LESS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 180421
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG NEAR THE COAST. COOLER WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE CLOSEST LOW CLOUDS WERE ABOUT 200
MILES OFF COAST. THE AIRMASS IS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AT THE COAST. THAT GAP WILL CLOSE
OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE
BEACHES...BUT WEAK COLD AIR DRAINAGE TOWARD SUNRISE WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOST OF THE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE
MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE
DEEPER. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ALL AREAS. ON SUNDAY THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BE JUST AS WARM AS SATURDAY.

COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST. ON TUESDAY A SPLIT JET PATTERN DEVELOPS WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 0.85" PRECIPITABLE WATER FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NEAR SATURATION TO 8000 FEET. IF THIS TROUGH COMES ASHORE AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IT WILL DEFINITELY BRING PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 500 MB COLD CORE
TEMPERATURES OF -27C WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DOWN TO 5000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE
60S AND LOW 70S IN THE DESERTS...AND 30 AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION... 180330Z...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFT 18/0900Z. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRUSH UP AGAINST THE
BEACHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS WITH A CEILING. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRATUS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5 TO 8
MILES AFT 19/0600Z WITH BASES AROUND 1000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 1 NM OR LESS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 172054
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY AND
THEN SPREAD INLAND BY SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT THE BEACHES
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTY WESTERN
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE SUNNY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEAREST STRATUS OR FOG
WAS A LITTLE WEST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. IT WAS GENERALLY 5-10 DEG
F WARMER THAN THURSDAY IN THE VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AT THE COAST.

SHORT TERM...THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ANY DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT NEAR SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME DRAINAGE FLOW
LIKELY OVER LAND LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF IT DOES FORM IT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AS
THE CURRENT PROFILES SHOW A VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY INCREASING INLAND SATURDAY AND ONLY MODEST
INCREASES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...THE VALLEYS PROBABLY WILL NOT START
TO COOL UNTIL SUNDAY...AND THE DESERTS NOT UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WE GET
HEIGHT FALLS FROM A WEAK BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE SOME PRECIP FOR SO-CAL AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS DOES SHOW
NEAR SATURATION UP TO OVER 700 MB THURSDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BARELY OVER 0.5 INCHES DUE TO
THE FAIR COLD AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -25 DEG C...THERE
COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THU/FRI...AND WITH THE LATE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF HAIL WITH THE SYSTEM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE 0-2 DEG C RANGE...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SNOW AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW 5000 FEET. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE LARGELY
IN AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIP SOMETIME IN THE
WED-FRI TIME RANGE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY WITH THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN
AS THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
172030Z...PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 18/10Z. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS
EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG





000
FXUS66 KSGX 172054
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY AND
THEN SPREAD INLAND BY SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT THE BEACHES
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTY WESTERN
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE SUNNY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEAREST STRATUS OR FOG
WAS A LITTLE WEST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. IT WAS GENERALLY 5-10 DEG
F WARMER THAN THURSDAY IN THE VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AT THE COAST.

SHORT TERM...THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ANY DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT NEAR SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME DRAINAGE FLOW
LIKELY OVER LAND LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF IT DOES FORM IT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AS
THE CURRENT PROFILES SHOW A VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY INCREASING INLAND SATURDAY AND ONLY MODEST
INCREASES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...THE VALLEYS PROBABLY WILL NOT START
TO COOL UNTIL SUNDAY...AND THE DESERTS NOT UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WE GET
HEIGHT FALLS FROM A WEAK BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE SOME PRECIP FOR SO-CAL AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS DOES SHOW
NEAR SATURATION UP TO OVER 700 MB THURSDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BARELY OVER 0.5 INCHES DUE TO
THE FAIR COLD AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -25 DEG C...THERE
COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THU/FRI...AND WITH THE LATE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF HAIL WITH THE SYSTEM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE 0-2 DEG C RANGE...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SNOW AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW 5000 FEET. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE LARGELY
IN AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIP SOMETIME IN THE
WED-FRI TIME RANGE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY WITH THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN
AS THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
172030Z...PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 18/10Z. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS
EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG




000
FXUS66 KSGX 171646
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND THEN
SPREAD INLAND BY SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT THE BEACHES LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
NEAREST STRATUS OR FOG WAS ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. MID-
MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE AVERAGING 3-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO.

SHORT TERM...THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ANY DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT NEAR SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR FOG. WE WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF IT DOES FORM IT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AS
THE CURRENT PROFILES SHOW A VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE END OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...BUT WITH 850 MB
TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASING INLAND AND ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW...THE VALLEYS PROBABLY WILL NOT START TO COOL UNTIL
SUNDAY...AND THE DESERTS NOT UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WE GET HEIGHT FALLS
FROM A WEAK BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE SOME PRECIP FOR SO-CAL AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS DOES SHOW
NEAR SATURATION UP TO OVER 700 MB THURSDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BARELY OVER 0.5 INCHES DUE TO
THE FAIR COLD AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -25 DEG C...THERE
COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THU/FRI. WILL PLAN ON INCREASING
POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY THU. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE 0-2 DEG
C RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW AT OR EVEN BELOW 5000 FEET.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE
MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIP SOMETIME
IN THE WED-FRI TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
171530Z...PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER 18/10Z...HOWEVER STRATUS/FOG NOT LIKELY TO
REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS BEFORE SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG




000
FXUS66 KSGX 171646
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND THEN
SPREAD INLAND BY SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT THE BEACHES LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
NEAREST STRATUS OR FOG WAS ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. MID-
MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE AVERAGING 3-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO.

SHORT TERM...THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ANY DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT NEAR SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR FOG. WE WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF IT DOES FORM IT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AS
THE CURRENT PROFILES SHOW A VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE END OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...BUT WITH 850 MB
TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASING INLAND AND ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW...THE VALLEYS PROBABLY WILL NOT START TO COOL UNTIL
SUNDAY...AND THE DESERTS NOT UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WE GET HEIGHT FALLS
FROM A WEAK BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE SOME PRECIP FOR SO-CAL AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS DOES SHOW
NEAR SATURATION UP TO OVER 700 MB THURSDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BARELY OVER 0.5 INCHES DUE TO
THE FAIR COLD AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -25 DEG C...THERE
COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THU/FRI. WILL PLAN ON INCREASING
POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY THU. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE 0-2 DEG
C RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW AT OR EVEN BELOW 5000 FEET.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE
MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIP SOMETIME
IN THE WED-FRI TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
171530Z...PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER 18/10Z...HOWEVER STRATUS/FOG NOT LIKELY TO
REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS BEFORE SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG





000
FXUS66 KSGX 171646
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND THEN
SPREAD INLAND BY SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT THE BEACHES LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
NEAREST STRATUS OR FOG WAS ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. MID-
MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE AVERAGING 3-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO.

SHORT TERM...THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ANY DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT NEAR SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR FOG. WE WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF IT DOES FORM IT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AS
THE CURRENT PROFILES SHOW A VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE END OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...BUT WITH 850 MB
TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASING INLAND AND ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW...THE VALLEYS PROBABLY WILL NOT START TO COOL UNTIL
SUNDAY...AND THE DESERTS NOT UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WE GET HEIGHT FALLS
FROM A WEAK BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE SOME PRECIP FOR SO-CAL AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS DOES SHOW
NEAR SATURATION UP TO OVER 700 MB THURSDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BARELY OVER 0.5 INCHES DUE TO
THE FAIR COLD AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -25 DEG C...THERE
COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THU/FRI. WILL PLAN ON INCREASING
POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY THU. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE 0-2 DEG
C RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW AT OR EVEN BELOW 5000 FEET.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE
MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIP SOMETIME
IN THE WED-FRI TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
171530Z...PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER 18/10Z...HOWEVER STRATUS/FOG NOT LIKELY TO
REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS BEFORE SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG




000
FXUS66 KSGX 171646
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND THEN
SPREAD INLAND BY SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT THE BEACHES LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
NEAREST STRATUS OR FOG WAS ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. MID-
MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE AVERAGING 3-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO.

SHORT TERM...THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ANY DENSE
FOG AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT NEAR SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR FOG. WE WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF IT DOES FORM IT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AS
THE CURRENT PROFILES SHOW A VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE END OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...BUT WITH 850 MB
TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASING INLAND AND ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW...THE VALLEYS PROBABLY WILL NOT START TO COOL UNTIL
SUNDAY...AND THE DESERTS NOT UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WE GET HEIGHT FALLS
FROM A WEAK BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE SOME PRECIP FOR SO-CAL AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS DOES SHOW
NEAR SATURATION UP TO OVER 700 MB THURSDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BARELY OVER 0.5 INCHES DUE TO
THE FAIR COLD AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -25 DEG C...THERE
COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THU/FRI. WILL PLAN ON INCREASING
POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY THU. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE 0-2 DEG
C RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW AT OR EVEN BELOW 5000 FEET.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE
MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIP SOMETIME
IN THE WED-FRI TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
171530Z...PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER 18/10Z...HOWEVER STRATUS/FOG NOT LIKELY TO
REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS BEFORE SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG





000
FXUS66 KSGX 170857
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR THIS
WEEKEND DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND
EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALL WE CAN REPORT THIS MORNING. WE
GET ANOTHER PERFECTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TODAY AND START THE TREND BACK TO
SEASONAL WEATHER AFTER OUR OFFSHORE EPISODE. THAT WILL MEAN SOME
FORM OF MARINE LAYER WILL REDEVELOP AND START A COOLING TREND AT THE
COAST WHILE THE WARMER WEATHER WILL HEAD BACK INLAND WHERE IT
BELONGS. A FEW PATCHES OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE GROWS APPRECIABLY FOR THE MARINE
LAYER TO GET ORGANIZED AND FORM A MORE UNIFORMLY DEVELOPED LOW CLOUD
DECK TO HEAD ASHORE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AND THE
TREND CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS REACHING
INCREMENTALLY FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT. DURING THESE DAYS THE
COOLING TREND WILL BE FELT IN ALL AREAS. THIS TREND COMES COURTESY
OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME VERY
WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF IT THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THEN A
MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIVES DOWN INTO THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE CHANGING SOLUTIONS WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...BUT CONTINUE TO ASSERT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

170817Z...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 18/10Z...HOWEVER STRATUS/FOG NOT LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL
AIRPORTS BEFORE SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

121 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 170857
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR THIS
WEEKEND DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND
EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALL WE CAN REPORT THIS MORNING. WE
GET ANOTHER PERFECTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TODAY AND START THE TREND BACK TO
SEASONAL WEATHER AFTER OUR OFFSHORE EPISODE. THAT WILL MEAN SOME
FORM OF MARINE LAYER WILL REDEVELOP AND START A COOLING TREND AT THE
COAST WHILE THE WARMER WEATHER WILL HEAD BACK INLAND WHERE IT
BELONGS. A FEW PATCHES OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE GROWS APPRECIABLY FOR THE MARINE
LAYER TO GET ORGANIZED AND FORM A MORE UNIFORMLY DEVELOPED LOW CLOUD
DECK TO HEAD ASHORE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AND THE
TREND CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS REACHING
INCREMENTALLY FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT. DURING THESE DAYS THE
COOLING TREND WILL BE FELT IN ALL AREAS. THIS TREND COMES COURTESY
OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME VERY
WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF IT THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THEN A
MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIVES DOWN INTO THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE CHANGING SOLUTIONS WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...BUT CONTINUE TO ASSERT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

170817Z...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 18/10Z...HOWEVER STRATUS/FOG NOT LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL
AIRPORTS BEFORE SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

121 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 170857
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR THIS
WEEKEND DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND
EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALL WE CAN REPORT THIS MORNING. WE
GET ANOTHER PERFECTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TODAY AND START THE TREND BACK TO
SEASONAL WEATHER AFTER OUR OFFSHORE EPISODE. THAT WILL MEAN SOME
FORM OF MARINE LAYER WILL REDEVELOP AND START A COOLING TREND AT THE
COAST WHILE THE WARMER WEATHER WILL HEAD BACK INLAND WHERE IT
BELONGS. A FEW PATCHES OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE GROWS APPRECIABLY FOR THE MARINE
LAYER TO GET ORGANIZED AND FORM A MORE UNIFORMLY DEVELOPED LOW CLOUD
DECK TO HEAD ASHORE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AND THE
TREND CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS REACHING
INCREMENTALLY FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT. DURING THESE DAYS THE
COOLING TREND WILL BE FELT IN ALL AREAS. THIS TREND COMES COURTESY
OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME VERY
WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF IT THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THEN A
MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIVES DOWN INTO THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE CHANGING SOLUTIONS WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...BUT CONTINUE TO ASSERT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

170817Z...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 18/10Z...HOWEVER STRATUS/FOG NOT LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL
AIRPORTS BEFORE SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

121 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 170857
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR THIS
WEEKEND DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND
EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALL WE CAN REPORT THIS MORNING. WE
GET ANOTHER PERFECTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TODAY AND START THE TREND BACK TO
SEASONAL WEATHER AFTER OUR OFFSHORE EPISODE. THAT WILL MEAN SOME
FORM OF MARINE LAYER WILL REDEVELOP AND START A COOLING TREND AT THE
COAST WHILE THE WARMER WEATHER WILL HEAD BACK INLAND WHERE IT
BELONGS. A FEW PATCHES OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE GROWS APPRECIABLY FOR THE MARINE
LAYER TO GET ORGANIZED AND FORM A MORE UNIFORMLY DEVELOPED LOW CLOUD
DECK TO HEAD ASHORE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AND THE
TREND CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS REACHING
INCREMENTALLY FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT. DURING THESE DAYS THE
COOLING TREND WILL BE FELT IN ALL AREAS. THIS TREND COMES COURTESY
OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME VERY
WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF IT THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THEN A
MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIVES DOWN INTO THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE CHANGING SOLUTIONS WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...BUT CONTINUE TO ASSERT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

170817Z...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 1SM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 18/10Z...HOWEVER STRATUS/FOG NOT LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL
AIRPORTS BEFORE SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

121 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VIS 2 NM OR LESS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 170447
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS FROM A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA HAS ENDED AND IN ITS WAKE IS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS.
COASTAL DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FIRST APPEAR IN THE
COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
BUT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE BENIGN WITH A RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR MID
APRIL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL APRIL PATTERN WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION
IF WERE TO UNFOLD. BUT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN FORECAST SEVERAL
TIMES THIS WINTER AND HAS EITHER 1) SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED
OVER TIME OR 2) FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPIATION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
170330Z...P6SM VIS AND SKC TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS66 KSGX 170447
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS FROM A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA HAS ENDED AND IN ITS WAKE IS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS.
COASTAL DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FIRST APPEAR IN THE
COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
BUT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE BENIGN WITH A RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR MID
APRIL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL APRIL PATTERN WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION
IF WERE TO UNFOLD. BUT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN FORECAST SEVERAL
TIMES THIS WINTER AND HAS EITHER 1) SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED
OVER TIME OR 2) FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPIATION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
170330Z...P6SM VIS AND SKC TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS66 KSGX 170447
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS FROM A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA HAS ENDED AND IN ITS WAKE IS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS.
COASTAL DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FIRST APPEAR IN THE
COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
BUT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE BENIGN WITH A RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR MID
APRIL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL APRIL PATTERN WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION
IF WERE TO UNFOLD. BUT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN FORECAST SEVERAL
TIMES THIS WINTER AND HAS EITHER 1) SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED
OVER TIME OR 2) FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPIATION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
170330Z...P6SM VIS AND SKC TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS66 KSGX 170447
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS FROM A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA HAS ENDED AND IN ITS WAKE IS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS.
COASTAL DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FIRST APPEAR IN THE
COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
BUT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE BENIGN WITH A RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR MID
APRIL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL APRIL PATTERN WOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION
IF WERE TO UNFOLD. BUT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN FORECAST SEVERAL
TIMES THIS WINTER AND HAS EITHER 1) SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED
OVER TIME OR 2) FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPIATION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
170330Z...P6SM VIS AND SKC TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS66 KSGX 161950
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1250 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN FOOTHILLS. SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER
CONTINUES FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEXT
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DEEPEN OUR MARINE
LAYER...STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

DRY AND SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE TO E WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. SFC GRADIENTS
ARE NOW -4.6 MB SAN-TPH AND -1.6 MB SAN-TRM...AND ONLY ONE LOCATION
REPORTED A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 40 MPH LAST HOUR. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY 1 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FOUR-CORNERS
LOW MOVES EAST AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL BEGIN TO
RESTORE HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE EXPECT A MARINE LAYER TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME COASTAL
CLOUDS SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
SE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...WITH THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE MODELS DIFFER WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

162000Z...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE BELOW THE CAJON PASS..THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN WILL RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 15-30 KT
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 16/2100Z. P6SM VIS AND SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS REMAIN
LOCALLY STRONG...AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN VERY LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER IN SOME AREAS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN
     JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 161950
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1250 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN FOOTHILLS. SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER
CONTINUES FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEXT
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DEEPEN OUR MARINE
LAYER...STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

DRY AND SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE TO E WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. SFC GRADIENTS
ARE NOW -4.6 MB SAN-TPH AND -1.6 MB SAN-TRM...AND ONLY ONE LOCATION
REPORTED A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 40 MPH LAST HOUR. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY 1 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FOUR-CORNERS
LOW MOVES EAST AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL BEGIN TO
RESTORE HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE EXPECT A MARINE LAYER TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME COASTAL
CLOUDS SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
SE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...WITH THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE MODELS DIFFER WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

162000Z...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE BELOW THE CAJON PASS..THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN WILL RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 15-30 KT
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 16/2100Z. P6SM VIS AND SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS REMAIN
LOCALLY STRONG...AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN VERY LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER IN SOME AREAS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN
     JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 161615
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SUNNY AND WARM
WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEXT
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DEEPEN OUR MARINE
LAYER...STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

DRY AND SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NE TO E WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH -6.7 MB SAN-
TPH AND -2.4 MB SAN-TRM. SINCE MIDNIGHT...SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTED
WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER...BUT NONE THAT STRONG SINCE 6 AM.
ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
40 MPH. IN SOME AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES TO 15 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EXPECT THE GUSTY NE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. THE COOLER AIR COMING FROM THE NORTH
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS FROM
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FROM THE
COAST TO THE VALLEYS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH DRY NW
FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST...BUT ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC WILL BEGIN TO RESTORE HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE EXPECT A MARINE LAYER TO REDEVELOP
WITH SOME COASTAL CLOUDS SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE SE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...WITH THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES THROUGH
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...BUT THERE IS JUSTIFICATION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
161530Z...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE BELOW THE CAJON PASS..THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN WILL RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 20-40 KT
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 16/2100Z. P6SM VIS AND SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY MIDDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER BETTER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN
     JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 161615
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SUNNY AND WARM
WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEXT
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DEEPEN OUR MARINE
LAYER...STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

DRY AND SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NE TO E WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH -6.7 MB SAN-
TPH AND -2.4 MB SAN-TRM. SINCE MIDNIGHT...SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTED
WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER...BUT NONE THAT STRONG SINCE 6 AM.
ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
40 MPH. IN SOME AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES TO 15 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EXPECT THE GUSTY NE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. THE COOLER AIR COMING FROM THE NORTH
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS FROM
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FROM THE
COAST TO THE VALLEYS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH DRY NW
FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST...BUT ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC WILL BEGIN TO RESTORE HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE EXPECT A MARINE LAYER TO REDEVELOP
WITH SOME COASTAL CLOUDS SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE SE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...WITH THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES THROUGH
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...BUT THERE IS JUSTIFICATION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
161530Z...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE BELOW THE CAJON PASS..THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN WILL RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 20-40 KT
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 16/2100Z. P6SM VIS AND SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY MIDDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER BETTER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN
     JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 161029
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND WARM OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SUNNY AND WARM
WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY BUT WITHOUT THE WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS RETURNING. NEXT
WEEK LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DEEPEN OUR MARINE LAYER AND
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND A FEW GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45 MPH. THESE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM...AND THEN TAPER OFF RAPIDLY. THE COOLER AIR
COMING FROM THE BIG TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPS FROM SKYROCKETING...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FROM THE
COAST TO THE VALLEYS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN BUT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RESTORE THE LOST HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. OVER THE WEEKEND WE EXPECT A MARINE LAYER TO REDEVELOP WITH
SOME COASTAL CLOUDS SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ABOUT A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...BUT WE WILL TEMPER OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...

160938Z...NE-E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 30-45 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER AND
S/SW OF THE MTNS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND MOD-STG
UDDFS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KRAL...AND KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 18Z...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY MIDDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER BETTER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN
     JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 161029
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND WARM OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SUNNY AND WARM
WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY BUT WITHOUT THE WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS RETURNING. NEXT
WEEK LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DEEPEN OUR MARINE LAYER AND
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND A FEW GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45 MPH. THESE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM...AND THEN TAPER OFF RAPIDLY. THE COOLER AIR
COMING FROM THE BIG TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPS FROM SKYROCKETING...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FROM THE
COAST TO THE VALLEYS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN BUT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RESTORE THE LOST HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. OVER THE WEEKEND WE EXPECT A MARINE LAYER TO REDEVELOP WITH
SOME COASTAL CLOUDS SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ABOUT A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...BUT WE WILL TEMPER OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...

160938Z...NE-E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 30-45 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER AND
S/SW OF THE MTNS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND MOD-STG
UDDFS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KRAL...AND KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 18Z...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY MIDDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER BETTER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN
     JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 161029
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND WARM OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SUNNY AND WARM
WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY BUT WITHOUT THE WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS RETURNING. NEXT
WEEK LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DEEPEN OUR MARINE LAYER AND
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND A FEW GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45 MPH. THESE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM...AND THEN TAPER OFF RAPIDLY. THE COOLER AIR
COMING FROM THE BIG TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPS FROM SKYROCKETING...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FROM THE
COAST TO THE VALLEYS TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN BUT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RESTORE THE LOST HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. OVER THE WEEKEND WE EXPECT A MARINE LAYER TO REDEVELOP WITH
SOME COASTAL CLOUDS SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ABOUT A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...BUT WE WILL TEMPER OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...

160938Z...NE-E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 30-45 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER AND
S/SW OF THE MTNS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND MOD-STG
UDDFS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KRAL...AND KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 18Z...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY MIDDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER BETTER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN
     JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 160438
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
938 PM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND...IS ON
TAP FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS...THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
FOOTHILLS THURSDAY MORNING. QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 930 PM...A CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LOCAL
GRADIENTS WERE CLOSE TO NEUTRAL...THOUGH SAN TO TPH REMAINED
OFFSHORE AT -7.9 MB. WINDS OVER SW CA WERE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
GUSTS INTO LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
DECREASE IN BOTH WIND INTENSITY AND DURATION FOR THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE LOW END ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 10 AM. LOCAL GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE
LOW 40S ARE LIKELY BELOW THE CAJON PASS...THROUGH THE CANYONS OF
THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS. WINDS WILL DECLINE QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM AS DIURNAL
FORCINGS TURN IN FAVOR OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SHIFT TOWARD ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH A WEAK BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EMBARK ON A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING NEAR
THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WHICH BOTH
PROG A DEEP LATE SEASON TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
QUITE HIGH...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST EACH
MODELS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. HAVE LEFT THE PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...160330Z...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG AND
GUSTY TONIGHT BELOW THE CAJON PASS TONIGHT...AFFECTING
KONT...RAL...AND KRIV...AS WELL THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SOME AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE LLWS. AFT
16/1800Z THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND P6SM
VIS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NE TO E WINDS. THE
PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN WINDS
WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL OCCUR BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AND LOCAL
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. FOOTHILL AND
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S. RH VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...AND RH
VALUES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...ALBRIGHT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 160438
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
938 PM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND...IS ON
TAP FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS...THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
FOOTHILLS THURSDAY MORNING. QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 930 PM...A CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LOCAL
GRADIENTS WERE CLOSE TO NEUTRAL...THOUGH SAN TO TPH REMAINED
OFFSHORE AT -7.9 MB. WINDS OVER SW CA WERE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
GUSTS INTO LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
DECREASE IN BOTH WIND INTENSITY AND DURATION FOR THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE LOW END ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 10 AM. LOCAL GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE
LOW 40S ARE LIKELY BELOW THE CAJON PASS...THROUGH THE CANYONS OF
THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS. WINDS WILL DECLINE QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM AS DIURNAL
FORCINGS TURN IN FAVOR OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SHIFT TOWARD ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH A WEAK BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EMBARK ON A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING NEAR
THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WHICH BOTH
PROG A DEEP LATE SEASON TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
QUITE HIGH...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST EACH
MODELS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. HAVE LEFT THE PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...160330Z...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG AND
GUSTY TONIGHT BELOW THE CAJON PASS TONIGHT...AFFECTING
KONT...RAL...AND KRIV...AS WELL THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SOME AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE LLWS. AFT
16/1800Z THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND P6SM
VIS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NE TO E WINDS. THE
PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN WINDS
WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL OCCUR BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AND LOCAL
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. FOOTHILL AND
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S. RH VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...AND RH
VALUES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...ALBRIGHT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 152023
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRY WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. GRADUAL COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...THE ORANGE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN GORGONIO PASS TODAY. WIND GUSTS WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 40-50 MPH IN THESE AREAS WITH A PEAK WIND GUST OF
62 MPH AT FREMONT CANYON AT 8 AM. WINDS WERE LIGHTER IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH.

THIS FIRST SURGE OF SANTA ANA WINDS ARE ON THE WANE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECOND BURST OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND EXPAND
FARTHER SOUTH INTO RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD...DEEP 548 DM LOW OVER UTAH
SENT COLD AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. IN
CONTRAST...DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH GREATEST
WARMING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.

CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
SANTA ANA EVENT COMES TO AN END. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND THE RETURN OF
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE
COAST ON FRIDAY...BUT VALLEY...MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS WILL
TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY A
WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH MINOR COOLING SPREADING FARTHER
INLAND EACH DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST A
SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH
PATTERN WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST
COAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LOCATION WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON WHERE THE JET STREAM AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAKE LANDFALL.

&&

.AVIATION... 152000Z...STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS IN LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY
IMPACTING KSNA...KONT AND KPSP AT TIMES TONIGHT. GUSTS THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...SKC AND P6SM VIS.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. PEAK WINDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDED 62 MPH AT FREMONT CANYON...60 MPH AT PLEASANTS PEAK AND 50
MPH AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS. WINDS GUSTS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE BELOW THE
CAJON PASS RANGED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.

THE WINDS HAVE ABATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SURFACE IN THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
55 MPH. FOOTHILL AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND
80S. RH WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 12% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
CONTINUED VERY DRY AND WARM FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO
     RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR

     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 152023
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRY WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. GRADUAL COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...THE ORANGE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN GORGONIO PASS TODAY. WIND GUSTS WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 40-50 MPH IN THESE AREAS WITH A PEAK WIND GUST OF
62 MPH AT FREMONT CANYON AT 8 AM. WINDS WERE LIGHTER IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH.

THIS FIRST SURGE OF SANTA ANA WINDS ARE ON THE WANE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECOND BURST OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND EXPAND
FARTHER SOUTH INTO RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD...DEEP 548 DM LOW OVER UTAH
SENT COLD AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. IN
CONTRAST...DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH GREATEST
WARMING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.

CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
SANTA ANA EVENT COMES TO AN END. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND THE RETURN OF
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE
COAST ON FRIDAY...BUT VALLEY...MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS WILL
TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY A
WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH MINOR COOLING SPREADING FARTHER
INLAND EACH DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST A
SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH
PATTERN WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST
COAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LOCATION WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON WHERE THE JET STREAM AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAKE LANDFALL.

&&

.AVIATION... 152000Z...STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS IN LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY
IMPACTING KSNA...KONT AND KPSP AT TIMES TONIGHT. GUSTS THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...SKC AND P6SM VIS.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. PEAK WINDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDED 62 MPH AT FREMONT CANYON...60 MPH AT PLEASANTS PEAK AND 50
MPH AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS. WINDS GUSTS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE BELOW THE
CAJON PASS RANGED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.

THE WINDS HAVE ABATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SURFACE IN THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
55 MPH. FOOTHILL AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND
80S. RH WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 12% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
CONTINUED VERY DRY AND WARM FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO
     RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR

     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 151556
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. CONTINUED
VERY DRY INLAND ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. GRADUAL COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE ORANGE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE
CAJON PASS AND ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. PEAK
GUSTS >45 MPH WERE IN REPORTED AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS AND PLEASANTS
PEAK. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN THESE AREAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER CLINGING TO SOUTHWEST SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN FORCED OFFSHORE WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW.

THE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

DOWNSLOPE WARMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ABSENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S
IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES. TODAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER UTAH.

CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS
THE SANTA ANA EVENT COMES TO AN END.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH COOLING SPREADING
FARTHER INLAND EACH DAY...AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
151530Z...STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE STRONG UP/DOWN
DRAFTS AND LLWS IN LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY IMPACTING
KSNA...KONT AND KPSP AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC AND P6SM VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. THE
SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE BELOW THE CAJON PASS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WITH GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH. AN ISOLATED PEAK GUST OF 60 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT PLEASANTS PEAK (EL 3870 FT) AT 4 AM.

THE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH TODAY...WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH. FOOTHILL AND
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S AND RH WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 12% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. CONTINUED VERY DRY
AND WARM FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO
     RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR

     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 151556
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. CONTINUED
VERY DRY INLAND ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. GRADUAL COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE ORANGE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE
CAJON PASS AND ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. PEAK
GUSTS >45 MPH WERE IN REPORTED AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS AND PLEASANTS
PEAK. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN THESE AREAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER CLINGING TO SOUTHWEST SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN FORCED OFFSHORE WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW.

THE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

DOWNSLOPE WARMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ABSENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S
IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES. TODAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER UTAH.

CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS
THE SANTA ANA EVENT COMES TO AN END.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH COOLING SPREADING
FARTHER INLAND EACH DAY...AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
151530Z...STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE STRONG UP/DOWN
DRAFTS AND LLWS IN LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY IMPACTING
KSNA...KONT AND KPSP AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC AND P6SM VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. THE
SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE BELOW THE CAJON PASS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WITH GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH. AN ISOLATED PEAK GUST OF 60 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT PLEASANTS PEAK (EL 3870 FT) AT 4 AM.

THE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH TODAY...WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH. FOOTHILL AND
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S AND RH WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 12% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. CONTINUED VERY DRY
AND WARM FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO
     RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR

     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 151556
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. CONTINUED
VERY DRY INLAND ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. GRADUAL COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE ORANGE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE
CAJON PASS AND ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. PEAK
GUSTS >45 MPH WERE IN REPORTED AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS AND PLEASANTS
PEAK. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN THESE AREAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER CLINGING TO SOUTHWEST SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN FORCED OFFSHORE WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW.

THE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

DOWNSLOPE WARMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ABSENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S
IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES. TODAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER UTAH.

CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS
THE SANTA ANA EVENT COMES TO AN END.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH COOLING SPREADING
FARTHER INLAND EACH DAY...AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
151530Z...STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE STRONG UP/DOWN
DRAFTS AND LLWS IN LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY IMPACTING
KSNA...KONT AND KPSP AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC AND P6SM VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. THE
SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE BELOW THE CAJON PASS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WITH GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH. AN ISOLATED PEAK GUST OF 60 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT PLEASANTS PEAK (EL 3870 FT) AT 4 AM.

THE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH TODAY...WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH. FOOTHILL AND
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S AND RH WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 12% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. CONTINUED VERY DRY
AND WARM FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO
     RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR

     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 151556
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. CONTINUED
VERY DRY INLAND ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. GRADUAL COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE ORANGE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE
CAJON PASS AND ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. PEAK
GUSTS >45 MPH WERE IN REPORTED AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS AND PLEASANTS
PEAK. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN THESE AREAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER CLINGING TO SOUTHWEST SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN FORCED OFFSHORE WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW.

THE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

DOWNSLOPE WARMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ABSENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S
IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES. TODAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER UTAH.

CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS
THE SANTA ANA EVENT COMES TO AN END.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH COOLING SPREADING
FARTHER INLAND EACH DAY...AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
151530Z...STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE STRONG UP/DOWN
DRAFTS AND LLWS IN LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY IMPACTING
KSNA...KONT AND KPSP AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC AND P6SM VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. THE
SANTA ANA WINDS SURFACED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE BELOW THE CAJON PASS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING WERE IN THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WITH GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH. AN ISOLATED PEAK GUST OF 60 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT PLEASANTS PEAK (EL 3870 FT) AT 4 AM.

THE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH TODAY...WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH. FOOTHILL AND
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S AND RH WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 12% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. CONTINUED VERY DRY
AND WARM FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO
     RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR

     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 151059
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW INLAND HUMIDITIES
AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
CONTINUED VERY DRY INLAND ON FRIDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS. FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH SLOW COOLING NEAR THE COAST SPREADING
INLAND ALONG WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS LATTER TIME PERIOD...THE
WINDS WILL ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.

LOWER LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO FAR INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AND EXPAND INLAND.

CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY WITH WEAKER WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AS
AREAS FARTHER INLAND CONTINUE TO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
INLAND WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RETURN AND SPREADING INLAND FARTHER EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER
SLOWLY DEEPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

150900Z...CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO
NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS IN LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...LIKELY IMPACTING KSNA...KONT AND KPSP AT TIMES EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS...THE CAJON PASS...THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS. ON THURSDAY...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND ALSO INCLUDE THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS IN
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO
     RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE...MM




000
FXUS66 KSGX 151059
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW INLAND HUMIDITIES
AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
CONTINUED VERY DRY INLAND ON FRIDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS. FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH SLOW COOLING NEAR THE COAST SPREADING
INLAND ALONG WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS LATTER TIME PERIOD...THE
WINDS WILL ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.

LOWER LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO FAR INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AND EXPAND INLAND.

CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY WITH WEAKER WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AS
AREAS FARTHER INLAND CONTINUE TO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
INLAND WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RETURN AND SPREADING INLAND FARTHER EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER
SLOWLY DEEPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

150900Z...CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO
NE WINDS WILL PRODUCE STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS IN LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...LIKELY IMPACTING KSNA...KONT AND KPSP AT TIMES EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS...THE CAJON PASS...THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS. ON THURSDAY...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND ALSO INCLUDE THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS IN
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO
     RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN
     BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS  -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
     INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND
     NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE...MM





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