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000
FXUS66 KSGX 312041
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
141 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CREATE QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST/VALLEYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 650 MILES SW OF SAN
FRANCISCO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. NOT MUCH HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL RETURNS PICKED UP ON RADAR NORTH OF
BIG BEAR. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS. DRYING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND CREATE A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER. BEFORE THEN...NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH
THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...THEN REMAIN RESTRICTED TO
THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK. 31/1200 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE ECMWF DIGS IT ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO SOCAL...WHILE
THE GFS HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE CLOSER
TO THE SE. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS LEANING TO NEAR SEASONAL
WEATHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
312000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-2500 FT RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 01/00-
03Z AND SPREADING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH 12Z LCLLY OBSCURING
HIGHER TRRN. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SAT MORNING. AREAS OF CU/TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8K FT ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS....SPREADING INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z SAT
WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ISOLD
STORMS WITH TOPS FL350-400 WILL CONTAIN STG UDDFS AND LLWS FROM
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SFC. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...NEW SOUTH SWELL BUILDING IN BEHIND DECREASING
SOUTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 312041
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
141 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CREATE QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST/VALLEYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 650 MILES SW OF SAN
FRANCISCO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. NOT MUCH HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL RETURNS PICKED UP ON RADAR NORTH OF
BIG BEAR. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS. DRYING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND CREATE A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER. BEFORE THEN...NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH
THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...THEN REMAIN RESTRICTED TO
THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK. 31/1200 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE ECMWF DIGS IT ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO SOCAL...WHILE
THE GFS HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE CLOSER
TO THE SE. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS LEANING TO NEAR SEASONAL
WEATHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
312000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-2500 FT RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 01/00-
03Z AND SPREADING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH 12Z LCLLY OBSCURING
HIGHER TRRN. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SAT MORNING. AREAS OF CU/TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8K FT ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS....SPREADING INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z SAT
WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ISOLD
STORMS WITH TOPS FL350-400 WILL CONTAIN STG UDDFS AND LLWS FROM
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SFC. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...NEW SOUTH SWELL BUILDING IN BEHIND DECREASING
SOUTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD





000
FXUS66 KSGX 311651
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
951 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
WILL CREATE QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST/VALLEYS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 650 MILES SW OF SAN
FRANCISCO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MARINE LAYER STRATUS OVER THE
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS...CLEARING TOWARDS THE COAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND A BIT SLOWER IN ORANGE COUNTY.
THE 31/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A MUCH DRIER PROFILE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPARED TO SOUTHEASTERLY YESTERDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND CREATE A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER. BEFORE THEN...NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH
THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...THEN REMAIN RESTRICTED TO
THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ALONG MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
311515Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL SLOWLY CLEARING TOWARDS THE COAST 16-
19Z. STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 01/00-03Z WITH BASES
NEAR 1200-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-2300 FT MSL...MOVING INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT LCLLY OBSCURING HIGHER TRRN. OTHERWISE...
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SAT MORNING. AREAS OF CU/TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8K FT DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS AFT 18Z. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD TOPS FL350-400
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MTN CRESTS AND LOCALLY INTO THE
DESERT WITH ASSOC STG UDDFS AND LLWS FROM GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
THE SFC. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
815 AM...NEW SOUTH SWELL BUILDING IN BEHIND DECREASING SOUTHWEST
SWELL INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK RISK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 311651
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
951 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
WILL CREATE QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST/VALLEYS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 650 MILES SW OF SAN
FRANCISCO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MARINE LAYER STRATUS OVER THE
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS...CLEARING TOWARDS THE COAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND A BIT SLOWER IN ORANGE COUNTY.
THE 31/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A MUCH DRIER PROFILE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPARED TO SOUTHEASTERLY YESTERDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND CREATE A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER. BEFORE THEN...NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH
THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...THEN REMAIN RESTRICTED TO
THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ALONG MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
311515Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL SLOWLY CLEARING TOWARDS THE COAST 16-
19Z. STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 01/00-03Z WITH BASES
NEAR 1200-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-2300 FT MSL...MOVING INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT LCLLY OBSCURING HIGHER TRRN. OTHERWISE...
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SAT MORNING. AREAS OF CU/TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8K FT DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS AFT 18Z. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD TOPS FL350-400
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MTN CRESTS AND LOCALLY INTO THE
DESERT WITH ASSOC STG UDDFS AND LLWS FROM GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
THE SFC. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
815 AM...NEW SOUTH SWELL BUILDING IN BEHIND DECREASING SOUTHWEST
SWELL INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK RISK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD





000
FXUS66 KSGX 311043
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
343 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
RETURN OF DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS ALSO BROUGHT A GREATER
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR
AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THURSDAY AFTERNOON WAS CONVECTIVELY QUITE ACTIVE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER THE DRYING TREND
NOTED IN THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING BETWEEN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. A DESCENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDING INTO LINDBERGH FIELD AROUND 130 AM SHOWED
CONTINUE DRYING ALOFT...EVEN RELATIVE TO THE THURSDAY EVENING
SOUNDINGS...WITH ONLY A SLIVER OF SOMEWHAT MORE SATURATED
CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAINING NEAR 800 MB. QPF FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS STILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AFTER
TODAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THIS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
RELATIVELY TO RECENT NIGHTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DRYING ALOFT. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AND EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS WITH MINOR DAY
TO DAY DIFFERENCES WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
310950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1100-1600 FT MSL
EXTENDING UP TO 25 MI INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING...SLOWLY CLEARING TOWARDS THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS
RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 01/00-03Z WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL...MOVING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MTN CRESTS AND
LOCALLY INTO THE DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
300 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
300 AM...SWELL AND SURF WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SURF...BUT THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 311043
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
343 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
RETURN OF DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS ALSO BROUGHT A GREATER
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR
AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THURSDAY AFTERNOON WAS CONVECTIVELY QUITE ACTIVE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER THE DRYING TREND
NOTED IN THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING BETWEEN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. A DESCENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDING INTO LINDBERGH FIELD AROUND 130 AM SHOWED
CONTINUE DRYING ALOFT...EVEN RELATIVE TO THE THURSDAY EVENING
SOUNDINGS...WITH ONLY A SLIVER OF SOMEWHAT MORE SATURATED
CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAINING NEAR 800 MB. QPF FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS STILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AFTER
TODAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THIS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
RELATIVELY TO RECENT NIGHTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DRYING ALOFT. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AND EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS WITH MINOR DAY
TO DAY DIFFERENCES WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
310950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1100-1600 FT MSL
EXTENDING UP TO 25 MI INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING...SLOWLY CLEARING TOWARDS THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS
RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 01/00-03Z WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL...MOVING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MTN CRESTS AND
LOCALLY INTO THE DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
300 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
300 AM...SWELL AND SURF WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SURF...BUT THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 310448
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALOFT. NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND BREEZY WESTERLY
WIND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS WOUND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING IDYLLWILD...CALIMESA AND
CHERRY VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
EVENING WITH A PW OF 1.63" ON THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING...AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AT TIMES IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING TOO STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND LOWER THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO
TODAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SE.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN AND HIGH
DESERT AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE 30/1200 GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS IT PULLS THE HIGH BACK NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL...AND MAINTAIN A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
WITH PATCHY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS. NORMAL ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN
SLOPES IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...310330...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK ALONG THE
COAST AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH KSNA LIKELY TO FOLLOW. CONVECTION DEBRIS
IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET
MSL OR HIGHER. LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE AIRMASS
DRIES SOME AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW MARINE
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS PER LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED EAST WINDS ARE CAUSING
SOME LOCAL DUST AND WIND FORECAST PROBLEMS IN THE KPSP...KTRM AND
NEARBY DESERT AREAS...INCLUDING EAST SAN DIEGO COUNTY AREAS. THIS
SHOULD BE OVER BY 310600Z. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND AS PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY DESERTS. THUNDERSTORM
BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE... 8 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES OVER THE INNER
COASTAL WATERS IS ENDING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 8 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF IS SUBSIDING AND THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST IS DECREASING AS WELL.
THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PIERCE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 310448
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALOFT. NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND BREEZY WESTERLY
WIND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS WOUND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING IDYLLWILD...CALIMESA AND
CHERRY VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
EVENING WITH A PW OF 1.63" ON THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING...AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AT TIMES IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING TOO STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND LOWER THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO
TODAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SE.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN AND HIGH
DESERT AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE 30/1200 GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS IT PULLS THE HIGH BACK NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL...AND MAINTAIN A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
WITH PATCHY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS. NORMAL ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN
SLOPES IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...310330...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK ALONG THE
COAST AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH KSNA LIKELY TO FOLLOW. CONVECTION DEBRIS
IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET
MSL OR HIGHER. LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE AIRMASS
DRIES SOME AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW MARINE
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS PER LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED EAST WINDS ARE CAUSING
SOME LOCAL DUST AND WIND FORECAST PROBLEMS IN THE KPSP...KTRM AND
NEARBY DESERT AREAS...INCLUDING EAST SAN DIEGO COUNTY AREAS. THIS
SHOULD BE OVER BY 310600Z. THIS WILL JUST LEAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND AS PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY DESERTS. THUNDERSTORM
BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE... 8 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES OVER THE INNER
COASTAL WATERS IS ENDING. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 8 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF IS SUBSIDING AND THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST IS DECREASING AS WELL.
THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PIERCE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 302042
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
142 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS/INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER...WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NEVADA...AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 200 MILES SSW
OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...MOST STORMS ARE
MOVING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...IF ANY OF THESE STORMS
BECOME STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER A LOCATION...THERE IS A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
PM PDT THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND LOWER THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO TODAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SE. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
AND HIGH DESERT AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 30/1200 GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY AS IT PULLS THE HIGH BACK NORTH...WHILE THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL...AND MAINTAIN A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS. NORMAL ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
302015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND HOVERING JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW SO WILL MONITOR FOR VCTS
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS
2000 FT MSL WILL PUSH BACK INLAND AFTER 31/0200Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND DESERTS. THUNDERSTORM BASES
WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LIGHTNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE
AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
     BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS
RADAR...BA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 302042
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
142 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS/INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER...WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NEVADA...AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 200 MILES SSW
OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...MOST STORMS ARE
MOVING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...IF ANY OF THESE STORMS
BECOME STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER A LOCATION...THERE IS A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
PM PDT THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND LOWER THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO TODAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SE. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
AND HIGH DESERT AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 30/1200 GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY AS IT PULLS THE HIGH BACK NORTH...WHILE THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL...AND MAINTAIN A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS. NORMAL ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
302015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND HOVERING JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW SO WILL MONITOR FOR VCTS
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS
2000 FT MSL WILL PUSH BACK INLAND AFTER 31/0200Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND DESERTS. THUNDERSTORM BASES
WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LIGHTNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE
AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
     BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS
RADAR...BA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 302042
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
142 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS/INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER...WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NEVADA...AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 200 MILES SSW
OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...MOST STORMS ARE
MOVING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...IF ANY OF THESE STORMS
BECOME STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER A LOCATION...THERE IS A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
PM PDT THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND LOWER THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO TODAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SE. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
AND HIGH DESERT AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 30/1200 GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY AS IT PULLS THE HIGH BACK NORTH...WHILE THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL...AND MAINTAIN A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS. NORMAL ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
302015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND HOVERING JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW SO WILL MONITOR FOR VCTS
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS
2000 FT MSL WILL PUSH BACK INLAND AFTER 31/0200Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND DESERTS. THUNDERSTORM BASES
WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LIGHTNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE
AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
     BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS
RADAR...BA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 302042
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
142 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS/INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER...WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NEVADA...AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 200 MILES SSW
OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...MOST STORMS ARE
MOVING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...IF ANY OF THESE STORMS
BECOME STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER A LOCATION...THERE IS A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
PM PDT THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND LOWER THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO TODAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SE. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
AND HIGH DESERT AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 30/1200 GFS BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY AS IT PULLS THE HIGH BACK NORTH...WHILE THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL...AND MAINTAIN A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS. NORMAL ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
302015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND HOVERING JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW SO WILL MONITOR FOR VCTS
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS
2000 FT MSL WILL PUSH BACK INLAND AFTER 31/0200Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND DESERTS. THUNDERSTORM BASES
WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LIGHTNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE
AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
     BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS
RADAR...BA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 301646
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
946 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS/INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER...WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NEVADA...AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 200 MILES SSW
OF SAN DIEGO. THE 30/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE PROFILE...WITH A CALCULATED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
2.02 INCHES AND MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE OF 2030 J/KG. A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WAS GENERATING LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TOGETHER LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...MAINLY OVER THE DESERTS...MOUNTAINS AND THE
INLAND EMPIRE. THE 30/1500 UTC HRRR SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON...THEN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SW SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE GIVEN MODERATE NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS BECOME STATIONARY...OR
TRAIN OVER A LOCATION...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND 15 MPH
GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
PM PDT THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND LOWER THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO TODAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SE. WILL WAIT FOR THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS BEFORE CHANGING THE POP
FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE 30/0600 GFS BRINGS MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY...AND GENERATES THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL...AND MAINTAIN A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY
NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
NORMAL ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
301530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
OVER THE COASTAL BASIN AND INLAND IN/NEAR KCRQ WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE THE COAST
BETWEEN 30/1500-1800Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THOUGH
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW
SO WILL MONITOR FOR VCTS INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR
BASES AND HEIGHTS AS THIS MORNING WILL PUSH BACK INLAND AFTER
31/0300Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND DESERTS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE AFT 30/2000Z. THUNDERSTORM BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000
FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOWERED VIS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-CLOUD
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...THE ELEVATED SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LIGHTNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
     BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301646
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
946 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS/INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER...WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NEVADA...AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 200 MILES SSW
OF SAN DIEGO. THE 30/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE PROFILE...WITH A CALCULATED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
2.02 INCHES AND MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE OF 2030 J/KG. A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WAS GENERATING LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TOGETHER LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION...MAINLY OVER THE DESERTS...MOUNTAINS AND THE
INLAND EMPIRE. THE 30/1500 UTC HRRR SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON...THEN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SW SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE GIVEN MODERATE NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS BECOME STATIONARY...OR
TRAIN OVER A LOCATION...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND 15 MPH
GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
PM PDT THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND LOWER THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO TODAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SE. WILL WAIT FOR THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS BEFORE CHANGING THE POP
FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE 30/0600 GFS BRINGS MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY...AND GENERATES THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL...AND MAINTAIN A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY
NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
NORMAL ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
301530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
OVER THE COASTAL BASIN AND INLAND IN/NEAR KCRQ WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE THE COAST
BETWEEN 30/1500-1800Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THOUGH
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW
SO WILL MONITOR FOR VCTS INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR
BASES AND HEIGHTS AS THIS MORNING WILL PUSH BACK INLAND AFTER
31/0300Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND DESERTS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE AFT 30/2000Z. THUNDERSTORM BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 8000
FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOWERED VIS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-CLOUD
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...THE ELEVATED SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LIGHTNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
     BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 301031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
331 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID WEATHER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR LOWER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER
THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH SE CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...THIS FEATURE IS COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MID LEVEL WAVE
WILL GENERALLY RIDE WNW THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN BAND WILL CAUSE THE AIRMASS
TO STABILIZE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE MID MORNING...PUTTING A
DAMPER ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST
SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOUT 10-20 KTS ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WE SHOULD EXPECT
DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM. WITH VERY LITTLE CAPPING ENVIRONMENT
WE SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BUT WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION...IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE HEAVIER CELLS AND
TRAINING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO PERSISTENT SE FLOW...WITH THE GREATEST
FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
COULD CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH DESERT. HAVE INCREASED THE
POPS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE VERY SMALL IN THE IMMEDIATE SAN DIEGO COASTAL AREA...BUT
NOT NON-EXISTENT...IN THIS AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY AND PVA.

SOME SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THE SE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS FOCUSED AGAIN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL A CHANGE TO MORE OF A SW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THIS WEEKEND...AND RE-ESTABLISH THE MARINE LAYER
WEATHER CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIP.

FOR EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK...THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL
ACTUALLY SINK TO THE SW AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS SHOULD
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY TO OUR INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND SQUASH OUR PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

300930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL BASIN WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL.
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BECOME A BKN/OVC DECK...DUE TO HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL MOVING OVERHEAD. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE THE COAST BETWEEN 30/1500-1800Z.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING IS LOW AND WILL BE EXCLUDING VCTS FROM THE TAFS UNTIL HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS REALIZED. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND HEIGHTS AS
THIS MORNING WILL BE PUSHING INLAND AFT 31/0200Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND DESERTS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE AFT 30/2000Z. THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL AND
BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOWERING
VISIBILITY...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.



&&

.MARINE...

230 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS AND ESTUARIES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

230 AM...ELEVATED SURF ON WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FEW PROBLEMS INCLUDING
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. THE SURF IS SUBSIDING TODAY...BUT THE RISK OF
LIGHTNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE RIP CURRENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND LIGHTNING...THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURF CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE DAY AS THE SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15
SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
331 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID WEATHER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR LOWER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER
THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH SE CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...THIS FEATURE IS COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
THAT WE`VE BEEN TRACKING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MID LEVEL WAVE
WILL GENERALLY RIDE WNW THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN BAND WILL CAUSE THE AIRMASS
TO STABILIZE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE MID MORNING...PUTTING A
DAMPER ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST
SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOUT 10-20 KTS ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WE SHOULD EXPECT
DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM. WITH VERY LITTLE CAPPING ENVIRONMENT
WE SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BUT WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION...IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE HEAVIER CELLS AND
TRAINING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO PERSISTENT SE FLOW...WITH THE GREATEST
FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
COULD CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH DESERT. HAVE INCREASED THE
POPS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE VERY SMALL IN THE IMMEDIATE SAN DIEGO COASTAL AREA...BUT
NOT NON-EXISTENT...IN THIS AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY AND PVA.

SOME SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THE SE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS FOCUSED AGAIN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL A CHANGE TO MORE OF A SW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THIS WEEKEND...AND RE-ESTABLISH THE MARINE LAYER
WEATHER CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIP.

FOR EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK...THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL
ACTUALLY SINK TO THE SW AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS SHOULD
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY TO OUR INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND SQUASH OUR PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

300930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL BASIN WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL.
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BECOME A BKN/OVC DECK...DUE TO HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL MOVING OVERHEAD. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE THE COAST BETWEEN 30/1500-1800Z.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING IS LOW AND WILL BE EXCLUDING VCTS FROM THE TAFS UNTIL HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS REALIZED. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND HEIGHTS AS
THIS MORNING WILL BE PUSHING INLAND AFT 31/0200Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTS AND DESERTS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE AFT 30/2000Z. THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL AND
BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOWERING
VISIBILITY...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.



&&

.MARINE...

230 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS AND ESTUARIES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

230 AM...ELEVATED SURF ON WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FEW PROBLEMS INCLUDING
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. THE SURF IS SUBSIDING TODAY...BUT THE RISK OF
LIGHTNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE RIP CURRENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND LIGHTNING...THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURF CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE DAY AS THE SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15
SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 300449
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
949 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BRING WARM...HUMID WEATHER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY TO THE COAST AT TIMES. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LOWER
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WITH THE
WAVE WILL ALSO BE A SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...WITH NAM12 SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO
2 INCHES. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 SHOW THIS WAVE WELL...AND THE GFS40
CONTINUES TO PAINT A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FLIP-
FLOPPING WITH EACH RUN WITH HOW MUCH ACTIVITY OCCURS WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH SOME RUNS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND OTHER RUNS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE DESERTS
INDICATED BY THE WRF AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...SO IF THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ABLE
TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY...IT SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
AS WELL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SOMEWHAT QUICKLY...AS THE 700-
500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE 15-30 KT OUT OF THE EAST.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THE CLEARER SKIES BEHIND IT SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DAY-
TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE INLAND EMPIRE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS AS WELL...AS THE WRF SHOWS THE ELSINORE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE 700-500 MB FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL 15-20 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...SO STORMS MAY
STILL MOVE AT A DECENT PACE. HOWEVER...WITH HOW HIGH THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE...EVEN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
INLAND EMPIRE. SOME STORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THAT WILL BE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE LAST PART OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 145 PM FOLLOWS...

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1.00". THIS
WILL LOWER THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE LONG RANGE PROGS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND BRING IN A SMALL SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MTNS. LATE NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY
A TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CURTAIL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DEEPEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CLUNG TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SIMILAR OCCURRENCE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AT THE
BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
300315Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM REMNANT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME REMNANT MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS WILL
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER SOUTHEAST CA AND W AZ MOVING OVERHEAD? MODELS ARE LOOKING GOOD
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONE RIGHT OVER A TERMINAL SITE IS THE
DIFFICULT QUESTION. IT IS LIKELY FLIGHT PATTERNS WILL NOTE SOME
CONVECTION SO VICINITY THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST WITH GREATEST
CHANCES AFTER 300700Z TO AROUND 310200Z. MOST OF THIS WILL BE HIGH
BASES AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
RISK...301900-310200Z... WILL BE MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
WITH JUST REMNANT CLOUD ELEMENTS DRIFTING OVER THE AIRPORTS.

MTNS/DESERTS...THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 301500Z. A BRIEF BREAK MAY
OCCUR BEFORE THINGS START REGENERATING WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY FROM
301900-310200Z. THERE IS A RISK OF CB WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. BASES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL EXCEPT LOWERING NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS AND ESTUARIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
8 PM...ELEVATED SURF ON WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FEW PROBLEMS INCLUDING
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. THE SURF IS SUBSIDING THURSDAY...BUT THE RISK OF
LIGHTNING INCREASES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE RIP CURRENTS
ARE POSSIBLE AND LIGHTNING...THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SURF CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE WELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT
AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
BEACH/WATER LIGHTNING IS THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM PDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PIERCE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 300449
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
949 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BRING WARM...HUMID WEATHER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY TO THE COAST AT TIMES. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LOWER
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WITH THE
WAVE WILL ALSO BE A SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...WITH NAM12 SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO
2 INCHES. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 SHOW THIS WAVE WELL...AND THE GFS40
CONTINUES TO PAINT A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FLIP-
FLOPPING WITH EACH RUN WITH HOW MUCH ACTIVITY OCCURS WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH SOME RUNS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND OTHER RUNS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE DESERTS
INDICATED BY THE WRF AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...SO IF THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ABLE
TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY...IT SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
AS WELL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SOMEWHAT QUICKLY...AS THE 700-
500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE 15-30 KT OUT OF THE EAST.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THE CLEARER SKIES BEHIND IT SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DAY-
TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE INLAND EMPIRE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS AS WELL...AS THE WRF SHOWS THE ELSINORE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE 700-500 MB FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL 15-20 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...SO STORMS MAY
STILL MOVE AT A DECENT PACE. HOWEVER...WITH HOW HIGH THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE...EVEN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
INLAND EMPIRE. SOME STORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THAT WILL BE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE LAST PART OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 145 PM FOLLOWS...

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1.00". THIS
WILL LOWER THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE LONG RANGE PROGS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND BRING IN A SMALL SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MTNS. LATE NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY
A TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CURTAIL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DEEPEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CLUNG TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SIMILAR OCCURRENCE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AT THE
BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
300315Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM REMNANT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME REMNANT MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS WILL
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER SOUTHEAST CA AND W AZ MOVING OVERHEAD? MODELS ARE LOOKING GOOD
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONE RIGHT OVER A TERMINAL SITE IS THE
DIFFICULT QUESTION. IT IS LIKELY FLIGHT PATTERNS WILL NOTE SOME
CONVECTION SO VICINITY THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST WITH GREATEST
CHANCES AFTER 300700Z TO AROUND 310200Z. MOST OF THIS WILL BE HIGH
BASES AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
RISK...301900-310200Z... WILL BE MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
WITH JUST REMNANT CLOUD ELEMENTS DRIFTING OVER THE AIRPORTS.

MTNS/DESERTS...THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 301500Z. A BRIEF BREAK MAY
OCCUR BEFORE THINGS START REGENERATING WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY FROM
301900-310200Z. THERE IS A RISK OF CB WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. BASES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL EXCEPT LOWERING NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS AND ESTUARIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
8 PM...ELEVATED SURF ON WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FEW PROBLEMS INCLUDING
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. THE SURF IS SUBSIDING THURSDAY...BUT THE RISK OF
LIGHTNING INCREASES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE RIP CURRENTS
ARE POSSIBLE AND LIGHTNING...THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SURF CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE WELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT
AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
BEACH/WATER LIGHTNING IS THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM PDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PIERCE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 300449
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
949 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BRING WARM...HUMID WEATHER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY TO THE COAST AT TIMES. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LOWER
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WITH THE
WAVE WILL ALSO BE A SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...WITH NAM12 SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO
2 INCHES. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 SHOW THIS WAVE WELL...AND THE GFS40
CONTINUES TO PAINT A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FLIP-
FLOPPING WITH EACH RUN WITH HOW MUCH ACTIVITY OCCURS WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH SOME RUNS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND OTHER RUNS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE DESERTS
INDICATED BY THE WRF AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...SO IF THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ABLE
TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY...IT SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
AS WELL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SOMEWHAT QUICKLY...AS THE 700-
500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE 15-30 KT OUT OF THE EAST.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THE CLEARER SKIES BEHIND IT SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD DAY-
TIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE INLAND EMPIRE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS AS WELL...AS THE WRF SHOWS THE ELSINORE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE 700-500 MB FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL 15-20 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...SO STORMS MAY
STILL MOVE AT A DECENT PACE. HOWEVER...WITH HOW HIGH THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE...EVEN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
INLAND EMPIRE. SOME STORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THAT WILL BE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE LAST PART OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 145 PM FOLLOWS...

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1.00". THIS
WILL LOWER THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE LONG RANGE PROGS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND BRING IN A SMALL SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MTNS. LATE NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY
A TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CURTAIL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DEEPEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CLUNG TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SIMILAR OCCURRENCE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AT THE
BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
300315Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM REMNANT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME REMNANT MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS WILL
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER SOUTHEAST CA AND W AZ MOVING OVERHEAD? MODELS ARE LOOKING GOOD
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONE RIGHT OVER A TERMINAL SITE IS THE
DIFFICULT QUESTION. IT IS LIKELY FLIGHT PATTERNS WILL NOTE SOME
CONVECTION SO VICINITY THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST WITH GREATEST
CHANCES AFTER 300700Z TO AROUND 310200Z. MOST OF THIS WILL BE HIGH
BASES AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
RISK...301900-310200Z... WILL BE MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
WITH JUST REMNANT CLOUD ELEMENTS DRIFTING OVER THE AIRPORTS.

MTNS/DESERTS...THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 301500Z. A BRIEF BREAK MAY
OCCUR BEFORE THINGS START REGENERATING WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY FROM
301900-310200Z. THERE IS A RISK OF CB WITH TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. BASES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL EXCEPT LOWERING NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS AND ESTUARIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
8 PM...ELEVATED SURF ON WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FEW PROBLEMS INCLUDING
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. THE SURF IS SUBSIDING THURSDAY...BUT THE RISK OF
LIGHTNING INCREASES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE RIP CURRENTS
ARE POSSIBLE AND LIGHTNING...THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SURF CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE WELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT
AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
BEACH/WATER LIGHTNING IS THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM PDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PIERCE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 292048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING WARM...HUMID WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT A FEW
STORMS WILL DRIFT OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS. THE
MONSOON FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND LIMITING THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH IN
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST MONSOON FLOW ALOFT. AT 1230 PM THE STRONGEST
STORMS WERE OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND HAD DRIFTED
NORTHWEST OVER THE HIGH DESERTS. WEATHER SPOTTERS IN LUCERNE VALLEY
REPORTED FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THESE
CELLS.

THERE IS PLENTY OF FUEL TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PW`S FROM 1.50 TO 2.00". LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WINDS AND LOCAL STREET FLOODING ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY AT AROUND 20 MPH...BUT TRAINING
ECHOES OVER THE SAME AREA COULD LEAD TO LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. THE
STRONG FLOW MAY SEND A FEW STORMS INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ MOVES INTO SO-CAL. THE VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOPS BOTH SHOW THIS CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST OF YUMA
AT 20Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1.00". THIS
WILL LOWER THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE LONG RANGE PROGS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND BRING IN A SMALL SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MTNS. LATE NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY
A TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CURTAIL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DEEPEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CLUNG TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SIMILAR OCCURRENCE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AT THE
BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

292045Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND LIGHT
WESTERLY SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE 21Z-03Z PERIOD. BKN-OVC
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
THURSDAY WITH BASES IN THE 1300 TO 1600 FT MSL RANGE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z...WITH 06-12Z
BEING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST BY 17Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR KONT.

MTNS/DESERTS...THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH CB
TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA 8000 FT MSL AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

1245 PM...A 2-3 FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY AT 15-16 SEC WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ELEVATED SURF AND THE THREAT OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE
BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE...THEREFORE
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEACHES BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO BEACH/WATER
LIGHTNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 292048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING WARM...HUMID WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT A FEW
STORMS WILL DRIFT OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS. THE
MONSOON FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND LIMITING THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH IN
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST MONSOON FLOW ALOFT. AT 1230 PM THE STRONGEST
STORMS WERE OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND HAD DRIFTED
NORTHWEST OVER THE HIGH DESERTS. WEATHER SPOTTERS IN LUCERNE VALLEY
REPORTED FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THESE
CELLS.

THERE IS PLENTY OF FUEL TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PW`S FROM 1.50 TO 2.00". LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WINDS AND LOCAL STREET FLOODING ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY AT AROUND 20 MPH...BUT TRAINING
ECHOES OVER THE SAME AREA COULD LEAD TO LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. THE
STRONG FLOW MAY SEND A FEW STORMS INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ MOVES INTO SO-CAL. THE VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOPS BOTH SHOW THIS CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST OF YUMA
AT 20Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1.00". THIS
WILL LOWER THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE LONG RANGE PROGS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND BRING IN A SMALL SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MTNS. LATE NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY
A TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CURTAIL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DEEPEST
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CLUNG TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SIMILAR OCCURRENCE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AT THE
BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

292045Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND LIGHT
WESTERLY SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE 21Z-03Z PERIOD. BKN-OVC
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
THURSDAY WITH BASES IN THE 1300 TO 1600 FT MSL RANGE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z...WITH 06-12Z
BEING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST BY 17Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR KONT.

MTNS/DESERTS...THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH CB
TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA 8000 FT MSL AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

1245 PM...A 2-3 FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY AT 15-16 SEC WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ELEVATED SURF AND THE THREAT OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE
BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE...THEREFORE
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEACHES BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO BEACH/WATER
LIGHTNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 291640
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING WARMER...MORE
HUMID WEATHER ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT OVER THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLED ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY THIS MORNING COINCIDENT
WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z YUMA SOUNDING WAS 1.91". AT MIRAMAR
THERE WAS AN IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN PWAT THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM
0.69" AT 00Z TO 1.61" AT 12Z. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS ABOVE 700 MB
WITH A DRIER LAYER BELOW (INVERTED V PROFILE). THAT MEANS THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY. MUCAPE WAS 600 J/KG AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE CONVECTION TODAY. STORMS WILL MOVE AT A
GOOD PACE TODAY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS ON BOTH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20KT. THIS WILL REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...BUT TRAINING ECHOES OVER THE SAME REGION WILL
BE A CONCERN. THE STRONG FLOW MAY PUSH STORMS WEST INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE COASTAL ZONES.

THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WERE RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL TURN A LITTLE SHALLOWER AS THE UPPER
HIGH STRENGTHENS...AND THE STRONG INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER
BURNOFF AND MAY KEEP CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN THE
EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWEST
ACROSS SO-CAL. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ELEVATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TRIGGER IN PLACE.

MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS LIKELY THURSDAY WITH SLOWER
MOVING CELLS BRINING A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHERLY AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL CONFINE MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALSO...THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

THE LONG RANGE PROGS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATE NEXT WEEK THE HIGH GETS
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO SO-CAL WILL CURTAIL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE DEEPEST MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

291530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH BASES FROM 1400-1700
FEET MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COAST THROUGH 18Z. SCT CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND LIGHT
WESTERLY SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE 21Z-03Z PERIOD. BKN-OVC
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
THURSDAY WITH BASES IN THE 1300 TO 1600 FT MSL RANGE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z...WITH 06-12Z
BEING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST BY 17Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR KONT.

MTNS/DESERTS...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING THIS MORNING AT 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WITH CB TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA
8000 FT MSL AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

830 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

830 AM...A 2-3 FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY AT 15-16 SEC WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ELEVATED SURF AND THE THREAT OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE
BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE...THEREFORE
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEACHES BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO BEACH/WATER
LIGHTNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 291640
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING WARMER...MORE
HUMID WEATHER ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT OVER THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLED ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY THIS MORNING COINCIDENT
WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z YUMA SOUNDING WAS 1.91". AT MIRAMAR
THERE WAS AN IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN PWAT THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM
0.69" AT 00Z TO 1.61" AT 12Z. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS ABOVE 700 MB
WITH A DRIER LAYER BELOW (INVERTED V PROFILE). THAT MEANS THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY. MUCAPE WAS 600 J/KG AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE CONVECTION TODAY. STORMS WILL MOVE AT A
GOOD PACE TODAY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS ON BOTH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20KT. THIS WILL REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...BUT TRAINING ECHOES OVER THE SAME REGION WILL
BE A CONCERN. THE STRONG FLOW MAY PUSH STORMS WEST INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE COASTAL ZONES.

THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WERE RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL TURN A LITTLE SHALLOWER AS THE UPPER
HIGH STRENGTHENS...AND THE STRONG INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER
BURNOFF AND MAY KEEP CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN THE
EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWEST
ACROSS SO-CAL. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ELEVATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TRIGGER IN PLACE.

MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS LIKELY THURSDAY WITH SLOWER
MOVING CELLS BRINING A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHERLY AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL CONFINE MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALSO...THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

THE LONG RANGE PROGS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATE NEXT WEEK THE HIGH GETS
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO SO-CAL WILL CURTAIL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE DEEPEST MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FORCED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

291530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH BASES FROM 1400-1700
FEET MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COAST THROUGH 18Z. SCT CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND LIGHT
WESTERLY SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE 21Z-03Z PERIOD. BKN-OVC
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
THURSDAY WITH BASES IN THE 1300 TO 1600 FT MSL RANGE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z...WITH 06-12Z
BEING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST BY 17Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR KONT.

MTNS/DESERTS...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING THIS MORNING AT 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WITH CB TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA
8000 FT MSL AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

830 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

830 AM...A 2-3 FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY AT 15-16 SEC WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ELEVATED SURF AND THE THREAT OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE
BEACHES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE...THEREFORE
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SWELL DECLINES TO AROUND 2 FT AT 14-15 SEC...BUT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEACHES BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO BEACH/WATER
LIGHTNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 291036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
336 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS MONSOONAL FLOW RETURNS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER SHRINKS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SURGING TOWARDS SOCAL EARLY THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS. THE INITIAL
MOISTURE FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SW ARIZONA ATTM WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS NOW REPORTED AT YUMA AND A CLUSTER OF CELLS EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS SW AZ NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE. PWAT
SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE BETWEEN 1.6 TO
2 INCH PWATS OVER SRN AZ WILL PUSH INTO SE CA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...A RAPID RISE FROM YESTERDAY EVENINGS RAOB OF ONLY
0.69 AT KNKX. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE CONTINUES EVEN FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. DEEP
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER TRAINING CELLS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP UNDER
THIS PATTERN SO THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WHEREVER MORE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER ACTIVITY OCCURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND
COULD POSE A RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. GIVEN MOIST FLOW AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY
WE COULD SEE CONVECTION PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
INTO LATE NIGHT SO HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
THERE.

WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CONTINUED ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
SELY FLOW THERE WILL BE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THU AFTN AND EVNG...WITH HI RES MODELS PICKING
UP ON AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE CA...COVERAGE COULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AS WELL. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR THU AFTN AND EVNG. SLOWER
MOVING CELLS THURSDAY COULD MEAN A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SRLY FLOW CONTINUING ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHUNT THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL
HIGH EAST INTO TEXAS AND THE DEEP SOUTH AROUND MID NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION... 290930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH BASES
RANGING FROM 1300-1800 FEET MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL
CONTINUE FURTHER INTO THE COASTAL BASIN...CURRENTLY AFFECTING
KSAN..KCRQ...AND KSNA. EXPECT REDUCED VIS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
INTERSECT THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TO THE
BEACHES BETWEEN 29/1500Z-1800Z. AFT 30/0300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SURGE INLAND...THIS TIME A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET LOWER THAN THIS
MORNINGS STRATUS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL TAF STITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA.

MTNS/DESERTS...SLIGHT CHACNE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING THIS MORNIGN AT 29/1800Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SKC BECOMING SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AFTER 29/1800Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...230 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 230 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT TO BEACH-GOERS
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ALSO...ELEVATED SURF OF 4-5 FEET AT THE SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY
BEACHES AND MOST OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY...THE SWELL
SHOULD HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 291036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
336 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS MONSOONAL FLOW RETURNS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER SHRINKS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SURGING TOWARDS SOCAL EARLY THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS. THE INITIAL
MOISTURE FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SW ARIZONA ATTM WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS NOW REPORTED AT YUMA AND A CLUSTER OF CELLS EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS SW AZ NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE. PWAT
SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE BETWEEN 1.6 TO
2 INCH PWATS OVER SRN AZ WILL PUSH INTO SE CA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...A RAPID RISE FROM YESTERDAY EVENINGS RAOB OF ONLY
0.69 AT KNKX. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE CONTINUES EVEN FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. DEEP
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER TRAINING CELLS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP UNDER
THIS PATTERN SO THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WHEREVER MORE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER ACTIVITY OCCURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND
COULD POSE A RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. GIVEN MOIST FLOW AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY
WE COULD SEE CONVECTION PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
INTO LATE NIGHT SO HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
THERE.

WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CONTINUED ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
SELY FLOW THERE WILL BE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THU AFTN AND EVNG...WITH HI RES MODELS PICKING
UP ON AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE CA...COVERAGE COULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AS WELL. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR THU AFTN AND EVNG. SLOWER
MOVING CELLS THURSDAY COULD MEAN A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SRLY FLOW CONTINUING ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHUNT THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL
HIGH EAST INTO TEXAS AND THE DEEP SOUTH AROUND MID NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION... 290930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH BASES
RANGING FROM 1300-1800 FEET MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL
CONTINUE FURTHER INTO THE COASTAL BASIN...CURRENTLY AFFECTING
KSAN..KCRQ...AND KSNA. EXPECT REDUCED VIS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
INTERSECT THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TO THE
BEACHES BETWEEN 29/1500Z-1800Z. AFT 30/0300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SURGE INLAND...THIS TIME A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET LOWER THAN THIS
MORNINGS STRATUS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL TAF STITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA.

MTNS/DESERTS...SLIGHT CHACNE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING THIS MORNIGN AT 29/1800Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SKC BECOMING SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AFTER 29/1800Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...230 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 230 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT TO BEACH-GOERS
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ALSO...ELEVATED SURF OF 4-5 FEET AT THE SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY
BEACHES AND MOST OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY...THE SWELL
SHOULD HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 290422
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
922 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MONSOONAL FLOW
RETURNS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER SHRINKS
BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW MAY STRAY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER SOCAL EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS COVERING THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AZ AND NW MEXICO EXPANDING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING WAS STILL DRY AND STABLE
WITH A 7 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 1800 FT. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 4-6 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOCAL DESERTS BUT HAD
TURNED 2 MBS OFFSHORE FROM NV. THIS OFFSHORE TREND ALLOWED THE HIGH
DESERTS AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE TO WARM TO NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK TODAY...WHILE ONSHORE BREEZES KEPT COASTAL AREAS
COOLER. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS REPORTED WERE UNDER 25 MPH AT 8 PM PDT.

SATELLITE DERIVED PW IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING PW MOVING WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GPS DATA FROM SELECTED SITES ACROSS
OUR DESERTS SHOWED SHARP INCREASES TODAY AS WELL. AT HOLTVILLE IN
SOUTHERN IMPERIAL COUNTY THE VALUE HAD SOARED TO 1.8 INCHES THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE ARE FORECASTING VALUES OVER SOCAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
1.5 INCH ON WED.

THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WILL TEAM
UP WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA COAST TO FEED A SE...
MONSOONAL FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. MODELS DO NOT
GENERATE ANY PRECIP HERE DESPITE THE DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOIST SURGE LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING...BUT THEY DO THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODERATE SE FLOW PREDICTED ALOFT...A FEW OF
THESE COULD MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST.

THE 00Z GFS RUN SHOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE EMERGING FROM THE FLOW LATE
WED INTO AZ. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE OVER SOCAL AND
PW SURGES WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BASED ON THIS WAVE EMERGING AS
FORECAST...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OVER SPREAD
THE AREA LATE WED THROUGH THU MORNING. FLOW WEAKENS ON THU AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO WITH ENOUGH SUN TO HEAT MTNS/VALLEYS...AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DEEPER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOLLOWING THE EC/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...AND THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE TO PASS LATE FRI...POPS ARE GREATEST ON THU...THEN TAIL OFF
AND BECOME ALMOST ENTIRELY OVER THE MTS/DESERTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW SOME
DRYING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE MTS/DESERTS WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF A FEW CELLS.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN INTACT OVER THE COAST...BUT BECOME
MUCH SHALLOWER UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. THIS MAY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AT THE BEACHES AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE DISRUPTION OF
THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO KEEP ANY LOWER
CLOUDS FROM FORMING SOME NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT WILL BE MORE HUMID...
AND OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE ELEVATED AFTER TONIGHT.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SINK
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE REGION AND MAY CUT OFF STORM DEVELOPMENT
SOME DAYS. FOR NOW...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED EACH AFTERNOON/
EVENING IN THE MTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD
DECREASE TEMPORARILY THIS COMING WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES
INLAND FORM THE PASSING TROUGH OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION... 290308Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP 15-25 SM INLAND THROUGH 1500 UTC...WITH BASES
AROUND 900-1300 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1600-1900 FT MSL. EXPECT
AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM ALONG HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND INLAND MESAS.
FOR THE 06Z TAFS FOR  KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS TIMING IS MODERATE...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG
HEIGHTS/VIS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE. STRATUS LIKELY
CLEARING TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE 1500-1800 UTC TIME-PERIOD.
1800-30/0000 UTC...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SKC. AFTER 30/0000
UTC...PATCHY STRATUS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 15-20 SM INLAND WITH BASES
AND TOPS ABOUT 200-300 FT MSL LOWER THAN TONIGHT. ALSO...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COAST AND
VALLEYS STARTING 1800 UTC. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 10000
FT MSL AFTER 1800 UTC.

MTNS/DESERTS...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING 1800
UTC AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CB TOPS TO 35000
FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SKC BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL
AFTER 1800 UTC AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE... 808 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 808 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT TO BEACH-
GOERS SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ALSO...A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS PEAKING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
BY THE WAVE WATCH 3...NEAR 4 FEET/16 SECONDS. THIS IS RESULTING IN
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET AT THE SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES AND
MOST OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES...WITH LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP
CURRENTS HAVING BEEN REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY...THE
SWELL SHOULD HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. &&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 290422
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
922 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MONSOONAL FLOW
RETURNS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER SHRINKS
BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW MAY STRAY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH FRIDAY.  A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER SOCAL EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS COVERING THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AZ AND NW MEXICO EXPANDING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING WAS STILL DRY AND STABLE
WITH A 7 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 1800 FT. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 4-6 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOCAL DESERTS BUT HAD
TURNED 2 MBS OFFSHORE FROM NV. THIS OFFSHORE TREND ALLOWED THE HIGH
DESERTS AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE TO WARM TO NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK TODAY...WHILE ONSHORE BREEZES KEPT COASTAL AREAS
COOLER. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS REPORTED WERE UNDER 25 MPH AT 8 PM PDT.

SATELLITE DERIVED PW IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING PW MOVING WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GPS DATA FROM SELECTED SITES ACROSS
OUR DESERTS SHOWED SHARP INCREASES TODAY AS WELL. AT HOLTVILLE IN
SOUTHERN IMPERIAL COUNTY THE VALUE HAD SOARED TO 1.8 INCHES THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE ARE FORECASTING VALUES OVER SOCAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
1.5 INCH ON WED.

THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WILL TEAM
UP WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA COAST TO FEED A SE...
MONSOONAL FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. MODELS DO NOT
GENERATE ANY PRECIP HERE DESPITE THE DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOIST SURGE LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING...BUT THEY DO THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODERATE SE FLOW PREDICTED ALOFT...A FEW OF
THESE COULD MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST.

THE 00Z GFS RUN SHOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE EMERGING FROM THE FLOW LATE
WED INTO AZ. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE OVER SOCAL AND
PW SURGES WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BASED ON THIS WAVE EMERGING AS
FORECAST...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OVER SPREAD
THE AREA LATE WED THROUGH THU MORNING. FLOW WEAKENS ON THU AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO WITH ENOUGH SUN TO HEAT MTNS/VALLEYS...AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DEEPER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOLLOWING THE EC/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...AND THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE TO PASS LATE FRI...POPS ARE GREATEST ON THU...THEN TAIL OFF
AND BECOME ALMOST ENTIRELY OVER THE MTS/DESERTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW SOME
DRYING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE MTS/DESERTS WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF A FEW CELLS.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN INTACT OVER THE COAST...BUT BECOME
MUCH SHALLOWER UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. THIS MAY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AT THE BEACHES AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE DISRUPTION OF
THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO KEEP ANY LOWER
CLOUDS FROM FORMING SOME NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT WILL BE MORE HUMID...
AND OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE ELEVATED AFTER TONIGHT.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SINK
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE REGION AND MAY CUT OFF STORM DEVELOPMENT
SOME DAYS. FOR NOW...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED EACH AFTERNOON/
EVENING IN THE MTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD
DECREASE TEMPORARILY THIS COMING WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES
INLAND FORM THE PASSING TROUGH OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION... 290308Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP 15-25 SM INLAND THROUGH 1500 UTC...WITH BASES
AROUND 900-1300 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1600-1900 FT MSL. EXPECT
AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM ALONG HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND INLAND MESAS.
FOR THE 06Z TAFS FOR  KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS TIMING IS MODERATE...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG
HEIGHTS/VIS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE. STRATUS LIKELY
CLEARING TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE 1500-1800 UTC TIME-PERIOD.
1800-30/0000 UTC...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SKC. AFTER 30/0000
UTC...PATCHY STRATUS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 15-20 SM INLAND WITH BASES
AND TOPS ABOUT 200-300 FT MSL LOWER THAN TONIGHT. ALSO...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COAST AND
VALLEYS STARTING 1800 UTC. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 10000
FT MSL AFTER 1800 UTC.

MTNS/DESERTS...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING 1800
UTC AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CB TOPS TO 35000
FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SKC BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL
AFTER 1800 UTC AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE... 808 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 808 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT TO BEACH-
GOERS SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ALSO...A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS PEAKING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
BY THE WAVE WATCH 3...NEAR 4 FEET/16 SECONDS. THIS IS RESULTING IN
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET AT THE SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES AND
MOST OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES...WITH LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP
CURRENTS HAVING BEEN REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY...THE
SWELL SHOULD HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. &&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON





000
FXUS66 KSGX 282256 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
356 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT. W/W/A SECTION
AND BEACHES SECTION UPDATED.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARMER
DAYS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 145 PM...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND WHAT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MONSOON
FLOW IS A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY. THIS UPPER HIGH
WILL DRIFT WEST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME ANCHORED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MIDLEVEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

MONSOON MOISTURE REACHED THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ROSE STEADILY
THIS MORNING. AT 12Z THE YUMA PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.02"...AND BY
18Z IT HAD RISEN TO 1.39". THE 12Z PWAT AT THE BRAWLEY SENSOR (NEAR
EL CENTRO) WAS LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT BY 18Z IT HAD RISEN TO 1.3".
THIS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z WRF MODEL SHOWS PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" IN THE LOWER DESERTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 500 J/KG
OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THIS TIME WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY. THE STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST IN THE 15KT 500-700 MB
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND MAY VERY WELL REACH THE INLAND VALLEYS.

EVEN HIGHER CAPE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STEERING FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY SO
STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. STORMS MAY ALSO FIRE
ALONG THE ELSINORE CONVERGENCE ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN
BETTER CHANCES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
PARAMETERS ARE MAXIMIZED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PWATS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH
DAY.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL TURN SHALLOWER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS. 500 MB HTS OVER SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING WERE 589DM...AND THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 592 DM BY THE WEEKEND. WARMING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
THE INVERSION STRENGTH WHICH IN TURN MAY RESULT IN SLOWER CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
282030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AFTER THE LATE STRATUS SURGE THIS
MORNING...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 29/04Z AND SPREAD 15-20 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 1000-1400 FT
MSL. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL EARLY WED
MORNING WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS.

MTNS/DESERTS...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL EARLY WED MORNING
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
400 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT TO BEACH-GOERS SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

ALSO...A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS PEAKING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
BY THE WAVE WATCH 3...NEAR 4 FEET/17 SECONDS. THIS IS RESULTING IN
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET AT THE SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES AND
MOST OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE AND
POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS BEING REPORTED. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED...AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY
THURSDAY...THE SWELL SHOULD HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
BEACHES...TS/HARRISON
UPDATE...HARRISON





000
FXUS66 KSGX 282256 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
356 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT. W/W/A SECTION
AND BEACHES SECTION UPDATED.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARMER
DAYS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 145 PM...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND WHAT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MONSOON
FLOW IS A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY. THIS UPPER HIGH
WILL DRIFT WEST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME ANCHORED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MIDLEVEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

MONSOON MOISTURE REACHED THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ROSE STEADILY
THIS MORNING. AT 12Z THE YUMA PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.02"...AND BY
18Z IT HAD RISEN TO 1.39". THE 12Z PWAT AT THE BRAWLEY SENSOR (NEAR
EL CENTRO) WAS LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT BY 18Z IT HAD RISEN TO 1.3".
THIS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z WRF MODEL SHOWS PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" IN THE LOWER DESERTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 500 J/KG
OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THIS TIME WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY. THE STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST IN THE 15KT 500-700 MB
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND MAY VERY WELL REACH THE INLAND VALLEYS.

EVEN HIGHER CAPE IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STEERING FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY SO
STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. STORMS MAY ALSO FIRE
ALONG THE ELSINORE CONVERGENCE ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN
BETTER CHANCES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
PARAMETERS ARE MAXIMIZED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PWATS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH
DAY.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL TURN SHALLOWER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS. 500 MB HTS OVER SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING WERE 589DM...AND THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 592 DM BY THE WEEKEND. WARMING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
THE INVERSION STRENGTH WHICH IN TURN MAY RESULT IN SLOWER CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
282030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AFTER THE LATE STRATUS SURGE THIS
MORNING...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 29/04Z AND SPREAD 15-20 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 1000-1400 FT
MSL. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL EARLY WED
MORNING WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS.

MTNS/DESERTS...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL EARLY WED MORNING
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
400 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT TO BEACH-GOERS SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

ALSO...A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS PEAKING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
BY THE WAVE WATCH 3...NEAR 4 FEET/17 SECONDS. THIS IS RESULTING IN
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET AT THE SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES AND
MOST OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE AND
POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS BEING REPORTED. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED...AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY
THURSDAY...THE SWELL SHOULD HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
BEACHES...TS/HARRISON
UPDATE...HARRISON




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