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000
FXUS66 KSGX 212058
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. FAIR WEATHER WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ARE PRODUCING SCT TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND HAIL. HAIL OF THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
HAS BEEN REPORTED. BY LATE EVENING THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
OPENS INTO A TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO OUR EAST WILL
EFFECTIVELY END THE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THAT TIME.

WEST OF THE MTNS...MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS PERSIST.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
AS BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTER-MTN
WEST...WITH AN EXTENSIVE HIGH OVER THE ERN NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND MARINE LAYER
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INLAND TO THE VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE ERN NORTH PAC
SHIFTS EWD OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH A N-S ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER RESTRICTING THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
212030Z...COAST/INLAND VALLEYS...FEW/SCT AOA 10000 FT MSL AND P6SM
VIS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...AROUND 22/0300Z...LOW
CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE INLAND 10-15
MILES. BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2200 FT MSL. VIS WILL LOWER
BELOW 3 MILES WHERE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT LAYER OF CUMULUS AOA 9000 FT MSL THROUGH
22/0300Z. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING ALL MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KPSP AND KTRM. TOPS OF THE TALLEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH 45000 FT MSL. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. LIGHTNING
CHANCES DIMINISH AFT 22/0300Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A 4 TO 5 FOOT...12 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE ELEVATED SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED...WITH SETS TO
7 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES. ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS
IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT






000
FXUS66 KSGX 212058
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. FAIR WEATHER WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ARE PRODUCING SCT TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND HAIL. HAIL OF THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
HAS BEEN REPORTED. BY LATE EVENING THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
OPENS INTO A TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO OUR EAST WILL
EFFECTIVELY END THE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THAT TIME.

WEST OF THE MTNS...MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS PERSIST.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
AS BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTER-MTN
WEST...WITH AN EXTENSIVE HIGH OVER THE ERN NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND MARINE LAYER
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INLAND TO THE VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE ERN NORTH PAC
SHIFTS EWD OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH A N-S ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER RESTRICTING THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
212030Z...COAST/INLAND VALLEYS...FEW/SCT AOA 10000 FT MSL AND P6SM
VIS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...AROUND 22/0300Z...LOW
CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE INLAND 10-15
MILES. BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2200 FT MSL. VIS WILL LOWER
BELOW 3 MILES WHERE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT LAYER OF CUMULUS AOA 9000 FT MSL THROUGH
22/0300Z. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING ALL MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KPSP AND KTRM. TOPS OF THE TALLEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH 45000 FT MSL. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. LIGHTNING
CHANCES DIMINISH AFT 22/0300Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A 4 TO 5 FOOT...12 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE ELEVATED SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED...WITH SETS TO
7 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES. ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS
IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 211620
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING...THE NKX SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2000 FT
DEEP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE A WEAK INVERSION. CONDITIONS ARE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ABOVE THE INVERSION...WITH ABOUT 1.3 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY.
THIS IS A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS
AND ADJACENT DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ON THE SOUTH AND EAST
FACING DESERT SLOPES. SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD BEGIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BY LATE EVENING THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND OPENS INTO A
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO OUR EAST WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE
THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. THERE IS HOWEVER A VERY
SMALL CHANCE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FASTER THAN THE MODELS
ANTICIPATE...REDUCING OUR CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY.

WEST OF THE MTNS...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW PATCHES MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
TODAY.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
AS BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTER-MTN
WEST...WITH AN EXTENSIVE HIGH OVER THE ERN NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND MARINE LAYER
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INLAND TO THE VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE ERN NORTH PAC
SHIFTS EWD OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH A N-S ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER RESTRICTING THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
211530Z...COAST/INLAND VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN...WITH BASES 1500-1800 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR
2200 FT MSL...WILL ERODE TO THE COAST BY 21/1700Z. SKC CONDS AND
P6SM ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...AROUND
22/0300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
MOVE INLAND 10-15 MILES. BASES AND TOPS WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT LAYER OF CUMULUS AOA 9000 FT MSL DEVELOPING
AFT 21/1900Z THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING ALL MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KPSP AND KTRM. TOPS OF THE TALLEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH 45000 FT MSL. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. LIGHTNING
CHANCES DIMINISH AFT 22/0100Z.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A 4 TO 5 FOOT...12 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE ELEVATED SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED...WITH SETS TO
7 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES. ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS
IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 211620
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING...THE NKX SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2000 FT
DEEP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE A WEAK INVERSION. CONDITIONS ARE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ABOVE THE INVERSION...WITH ABOUT 1.3 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY.
THIS IS A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS
AND ADJACENT DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ON THE SOUTH AND EAST
FACING DESERT SLOPES. SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD BEGIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BY LATE EVENING THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND OPENS INTO A
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO OUR EAST WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE
THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. THERE IS HOWEVER A VERY
SMALL CHANCE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FASTER THAN THE MODELS
ANTICIPATE...REDUCING OUR CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY.

WEST OF THE MTNS...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW PATCHES MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
TODAY.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
AS BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTER-MTN
WEST...WITH AN EXTENSIVE HIGH OVER THE ERN NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND MARINE LAYER
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INLAND TO THE VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE ERN NORTH PAC
SHIFTS EWD OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH A N-S ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER RESTRICTING THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
211530Z...COAST/INLAND VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN...WITH BASES 1500-1800 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR
2200 FT MSL...WILL ERODE TO THE COAST BY 21/1700Z. SKC CONDS AND
P6SM ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...AROUND
22/0300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
MOVE INLAND 10-15 MILES. BASES AND TOPS WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT LAYER OF CUMULUS AOA 9000 FT MSL DEVELOPING
AFT 21/1900Z THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING ALL MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KPSP AND KTRM. TOPS OF THE TALLEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH 45000 FT MSL. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. LIGHTNING
CHANCES DIMINISH AFT 22/0100Z.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A 4 TO 5 FOOT...12 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE ELEVATED SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED...WITH SETS TO
7 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES. ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS
IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT






000
FXUS66 KSGX 211057
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
357 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
OVER MOST AREAS...THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. AFTER THE LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO WOBBLE SOUTH BUT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO
MOVE TO THE EAST ATTM. ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE
CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
WESTERLIES...ACCELERATING IT EAST TO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME
FRIDAY. FOR TODAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON COASTAL SOCAL AT THIS POINT AS WE ARE QUICKLY GOING TO BE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING OF OUR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
REGIONS AND WILL HELP TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN
THOSE AREAS...PROBABLY AS QUICKLY AS MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SURFACE CAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH 1000+ J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND THE HIGH RES NAM AS WELL. MOISTURE PROGS
ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AREAS ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM ABOUT 3/4 OF AN INCH
TO A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A MODERATE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS (EXCEPT ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS).

FOR TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MARINE LAYER TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST BUT INTRUSION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NEAR
COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. DIURNAL MARINE INTRUSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON WHETHER A TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACNW
AND AFFECT SOCAL. ALSO MOISTURE FROM TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS...KARINA
AND LOWELL...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH I`VE NOT SCENE A SOLUTION THAT
ACTUALLY BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE THAT FAR NORTH AT THIS TIME.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
211000Z...PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES 1600-2100 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR
2400 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS AND COAST...AND OVER PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY BY SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO 1-3 SM DUE TO MIST AND FOG
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS
THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BASES AROUND
8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS...STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...
.BEACHES...
A 4 TO 5 FOOT...12 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE ELEVATED SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED...WITH SETS TO
7 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES. ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS
IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 211057
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
357 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
OVER MOST AREAS...THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. AFTER THE LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO WOBBLE SOUTH BUT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO
MOVE TO THE EAST ATTM. ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE
CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
WESTERLIES...ACCELERATING IT EAST TO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME
FRIDAY. FOR TODAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON COASTAL SOCAL AT THIS POINT AS WE ARE QUICKLY GOING TO BE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING OF OUR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
REGIONS AND WILL HELP TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN
THOSE AREAS...PROBABLY AS QUICKLY AS MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SURFACE CAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH 1000+ J/KG ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND THE HIGH RES NAM AS WELL. MOISTURE PROGS
ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AREAS ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM ABOUT 3/4 OF AN INCH
TO A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A MODERATE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS (EXCEPT ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS).

FOR TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MARINE LAYER TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST BUT INTRUSION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NEAR
COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. DIURNAL MARINE INTRUSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON WHETHER A TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACNW
AND AFFECT SOCAL. ALSO MOISTURE FROM TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS...KARINA
AND LOWELL...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH I`VE NOT SCENE A SOLUTION THAT
ACTUALLY BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE THAT FAR NORTH AT THIS TIME.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
211000Z...PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES 1600-2100 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR
2400 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS AND COAST...AND OVER PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY BY SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO 1-3 SM DUE TO MIST AND FOG
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS
THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BASES AROUND
8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS...STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...
.BEACHES...
A 4 TO 5 FOOT...12 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE ELEVATED SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED...WITH SETS TO
7 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES. ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS
IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT









000
FXUS66 KSGX 210340
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
845 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
OVER MOST AREAS...THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. AFTER THE LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT SOME DECENT RAINFALL TO MAINLY THE INLAND
EMPIRE AND A FEW ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...INCLUDING 0.90 INCHES AT OAT FLATS...SOUTHEAST OF
TEMECULA...AND OVER 0.40 INCHES AT SEVERAL SPOTS AROUND RIVERSIDE
AND SAN BERNARDINO. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH
PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. STRATUS WILL BE RATHER
SPARSE THIS EVENING AS THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED TO AROUND
3-4 DEG C BASED ON LINDBERGH FIELD/JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT ACARS
SOUNDINGS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK RATHER SPARSE OVERNIGHT AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.2 INCHES AT THE COAST AND IN THE DESERTS...AN ISOLATED STORM IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. I HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ORANGE COUNTY THOUGH WHERE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
WILL BE LOWEST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA
CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 750-550 MB LAYERS AND
LITTLE ABOVE THAT FOR RELATIVELY FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THAT SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE DRY
LAYER ABOVE 550 MB COULD HELP WITH HAIL GENERATION...AND WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL MOSTLY
STAY BELOW 1.3 INCHES...ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE MORE ISOLATED.
WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH PHOENIX AND LAS VEGAS...AND OUR OFFICES
WILL MAKE DECISIONS FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THURSDAY IN OUR
FORECAST AREAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WE GET INTO DRY WEST
FLOW...AND TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE...WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...MEAN TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL
KEEP THE WARMING TREND FROM EXTENDING TOO FAR...AND SATURDAY/SUNDAY
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE COOLER. THERE WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCAL WRF SHOWING A STRATUS IN COASTAL AND SOME
VALLEYS AREAS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING NEXT WEEK AND THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...BUT IF THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA
AS SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
210300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE ASHORE AND INTO COASTAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 04-08Z TONIGHT WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEY WILL REACH KONT
BY 12Z OR SO. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1800 FEET MSL. SCATTER OUT
THURSDAY WILL TAKE PLACE BY 16-17Z. SCATTERED DEBRIS CLOUDS ABOVE
10000 FEET MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG MOUNTAIN CRESTS AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. BASES WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 35000
FEET. WHEN/WHERE TSTORMS OCCUR...VARIABLE WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...MM








000
FXUS66 KSGX 210340
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
845 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
OVER MOST AREAS...THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. AFTER THE LOW EXITS TO
THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD NEXT WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT SOME DECENT RAINFALL TO MAINLY THE INLAND
EMPIRE AND A FEW ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...INCLUDING 0.90 INCHES AT OAT FLATS...SOUTHEAST OF
TEMECULA...AND OVER 0.40 INCHES AT SEVERAL SPOTS AROUND RIVERSIDE
AND SAN BERNARDINO. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH
PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. STRATUS WILL BE RATHER
SPARSE THIS EVENING AS THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED TO AROUND
3-4 DEG C BASED ON LINDBERGH FIELD/JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT ACARS
SOUNDINGS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK RATHER SPARSE OVERNIGHT AS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.2 INCHES AT THE COAST AND IN THE DESERTS...AN ISOLATED STORM IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. I HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ORANGE COUNTY THOUGH WHERE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
WILL BE LOWEST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA
CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 750-550 MB LAYERS AND
LITTLE ABOVE THAT FOR RELATIVELY FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THAT SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE DRY
LAYER ABOVE 550 MB COULD HELP WITH HAIL GENERATION...AND WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL MOSTLY
STAY BELOW 1.3 INCHES...ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE MORE ISOLATED.
WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH PHOENIX AND LAS VEGAS...AND OUR OFFICES
WILL MAKE DECISIONS FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THURSDAY IN OUR
FORECAST AREAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WE GET INTO DRY WEST
FLOW...AND TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE...WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...MEAN TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL
KEEP THE WARMING TREND FROM EXTENDING TOO FAR...AND SATURDAY/SUNDAY
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE COOLER. THERE WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCAL WRF SHOWING A STRATUS IN COASTAL AND SOME
VALLEYS AREAS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING NEXT WEEK AND THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...BUT IF THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA
AS SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
210300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE ASHORE AND INTO COASTAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 04-08Z TONIGHT WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEY WILL REACH KONT
BY 12Z OR SO. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1800 FEET MSL. SCATTER OUT
THURSDAY WILL TAKE PLACE BY 16-17Z. SCATTERED DEBRIS CLOUDS ABOVE
10000 FEET MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG MOUNTAIN CRESTS AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. BASES WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 35000
FEET. WHEN/WHERE TSTORMS OCCUR...VARIABLE WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...MM







000
FXUS66 KSGX 202100
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH
LOCALIZED FLASHING FLOODING POSSIBLE.  DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AND UNSEASONAL
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BIGHT...WITH
THE CENTER CURRENTLY ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST.  THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS.  CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHOWER
BANDS...BUT THE MOST ATTENTION WORTHY AT THIS TIME IS FORMING OVER
THE INLAND EMPIRE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ELSINORE
NORTHWARD INTO RIVERSIDE.  GIVEN THE TRENDS FROM THIS
MORNING...STILL THINK THAT SOME DECENT SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1.2 - 1.3 INCH PWS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH BACKS UP THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING READING OF 1.21 INCHES
OVER THE AREA...SO THINK THAT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING IN THE MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT AREAS.  THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 PM.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY
AS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA REMAIN UNDER THE BEST
DIFLUENT AREA ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  FOR THIS REASON...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY.  DRIER AIR
SHOULD START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
THOUGH...SO EXPECT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE
IN THE DAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND.  THIS
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT SHOULD REBOUND BY MID WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH SOME
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
202015Z...STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1900-2400 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL AND TOPS AROUND 3000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WILL MOVE BACK
INLAND 25 TO POSSIBLY 40 MILES INLAND DURING THE 21/0000-1400 UTC
TIME-FRAME...BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY IN PLACES. CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST IS MODERATE. CLEARING IS LIKELY 21/1500-1800 UTC.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BASES
AROUND 4000-6000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...AND CB TOPS 35000-40000
FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SAN DIEGO...RIVERSIDE
AND POSSIBLY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL VISIBILITY AOB 1 MILE
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOT MOVE INLAND UNTIL
TOMORROW...AND SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...ROUGH SEAS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.BEACHES...
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR LIGHTNING AT THE BEACHES WAS
CANCELLED...AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED SINCE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

ALSO...A 4-6 FOOT/12 SECOND PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY WILL BUILD TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY TO ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

.SKWYARN...
SKYWARN IS ACTIVATED FOR SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON








000
FXUS66 KSGX 202100
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH
LOCALIZED FLASHING FLOODING POSSIBLE.  DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AND UNSEASONAL
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BIGHT...WITH
THE CENTER CURRENTLY ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST.  THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS.  CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHOWER
BANDS...BUT THE MOST ATTENTION WORTHY AT THIS TIME IS FORMING OVER
THE INLAND EMPIRE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ELSINORE
NORTHWARD INTO RIVERSIDE.  GIVEN THE TRENDS FROM THIS
MORNING...STILL THINK THAT SOME DECENT SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1.2 - 1.3 INCH PWS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH BACKS UP THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING READING OF 1.21 INCHES
OVER THE AREA...SO THINK THAT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING IN THE MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT AREAS.  THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 PM.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY
AS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA REMAIN UNDER THE BEST
DIFLUENT AREA ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  FOR THIS REASON...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY.  DRIER AIR
SHOULD START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
THOUGH...SO EXPECT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE
IN THE DAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND.  THIS
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT SHOULD REBOUND BY MID WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH SOME
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
202015Z...STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1900-2400 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL AND TOPS AROUND 3000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WILL MOVE BACK
INLAND 25 TO POSSIBLY 40 MILES INLAND DURING THE 21/0000-1400 UTC
TIME-FRAME...BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY IN PLACES. CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST IS MODERATE. CLEARING IS LIKELY 21/1500-1800 UTC.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BASES
AROUND 4000-6000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...AND CB TOPS 35000-40000
FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SAN DIEGO...RIVERSIDE
AND POSSIBLY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL VISIBILITY AOB 1 MILE
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOT MOVE INLAND UNTIL
TOMORROW...AND SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...ROUGH SEAS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.BEACHES...
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR LIGHTNING AT THE BEACHES WAS
CANCELLED...AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED SINCE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

ALSO...A 4-6 FOOT/12 SECOND PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY WILL BUILD TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY TO ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

.SKWYARN...
SKYWARN IS ACTIVATED FOR SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 201644
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN...WITH FLASHING FLOODING POSSIBLE. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS MORNING.  THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT EXTENDS
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ESCONDIDO...VALLEY
CENTER...SAGE...IDYLLWILD...PINE COVE...ONYX PEAK...AND JOHNSON
VALLEY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ARE PRIMARILY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...SINCE THE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY HIGH
BASED.  HOWEVER...AREAS UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING SOME
DECENT SIZE HAIL AS WELL.  MOST REPORTS HAVE BEEN NICKEL SIZE OR
LESS...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MENIFEE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
NEAR NUEVO MORE RECENTLY PRODUCED INCH SIZE HAIL.  NEEDLESS TO
SAY...EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE GETTING SOME
SUN NOW.  THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING SHOWS THAT PWS THIS MORNING ARE ONLY
1.21 INCHES...BUT BELIEVE THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY.  THEREFORE...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS WELL AS THE INLAND VALLEYS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE ELEVATED CONVECTION VERY WELL
WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION POTENTIAL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.  IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM IS THE FIRST THAT ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE CAPTURING SOME OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
PRECIPITATION AS WELL.  THAT BEING SAID...IT FAVORS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT AREAS AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING ALL THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT.  THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR THURSDAY...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INLAND LATE ON THURSDAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND.
ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL
LIKELY REBOUND BY MID WEEK.  THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
201525Z...STRATUS ABOUT 20 MILES INLAND IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH
SOME PATCHES IN NORTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY AND NEAR KONT...WITH BASES
1900-2400 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND TOPS AROUND 3000 FT ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL...WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH 1800 UTC. STRATUS...WITH SIMILAR
BASES AND TOPS TO THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE BACK INLAND 25 TO
POSSIBLY 40 MILES INLAND 21/0000-1400 UTC...BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT
PATCHY IN PLACES. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS MODERATE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...AND CB TOPS 35000-40000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SAN DIEGO...RIVERSIDE AND POSSIBLY INTO
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL VISIBILITY AOB 1 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
825 AM...A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...ROUGH SEAS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ALONG
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST 11 AM. THE STATEMENT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT DIE
DOWN OVER THE BEACHES.

ALSO...A 4-6 FOOT/12 SECOND PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY WILL BUILD TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY TO ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

.SKWYARN...
SKYWARN IS ACTIVATED FOR SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 201644
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN...WITH FLASHING FLOODING POSSIBLE. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS MORNING.  THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT EXTENDS
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ESCONDIDO...VALLEY
CENTER...SAGE...IDYLLWILD...PINE COVE...ONYX PEAK...AND JOHNSON
VALLEY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ARE PRIMARILY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...SINCE THE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY HIGH
BASED.  HOWEVER...AREAS UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING SOME
DECENT SIZE HAIL AS WELL.  MOST REPORTS HAVE BEEN NICKEL SIZE OR
LESS...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MENIFEE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
NEAR NUEVO MORE RECENTLY PRODUCED INCH SIZE HAIL.  NEEDLESS TO
SAY...EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE GETTING SOME
SUN NOW.  THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING SHOWS THAT PWS THIS MORNING ARE ONLY
1.21 INCHES...BUT BELIEVE THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY.  THEREFORE...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS WELL AS THE INLAND VALLEYS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE ELEVATED CONVECTION VERY WELL
WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION POTENTIAL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.  IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM IS THE FIRST THAT ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE CAPTURING SOME OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
PRECIPITATION AS WELL.  THAT BEING SAID...IT FAVORS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT AREAS AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING ALL THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT.  THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR THURSDAY...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INLAND LATE ON THURSDAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND.
ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL
LIKELY REBOUND BY MID WEEK.  THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
201525Z...STRATUS ABOUT 20 MILES INLAND IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH
SOME PATCHES IN NORTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY AND NEAR KONT...WITH BASES
1900-2400 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND TOPS AROUND 3000 FT ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL...WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH 1800 UTC. STRATUS...WITH SIMILAR
BASES AND TOPS TO THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE BACK INLAND 25 TO
POSSIBLY 40 MILES INLAND 21/0000-1400 UTC...BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT
PATCHY IN PLACES. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS MODERATE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...AND CB TOPS 35000-40000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SAN DIEGO...RIVERSIDE AND POSSIBLY INTO
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL VISIBILITY AOB 1 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
825 AM...A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...ROUGH SEAS AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ALONG
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST 11 AM. THE STATEMENT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT DIE
DOWN OVER THE BEACHES.

ALSO...A 4-6 FOOT/12 SECOND PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY WILL BUILD TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY TO ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

.SKWYARN...
SKYWARN IS ACTIVATED FOR SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON








000
FXUS66 KSGX 201034
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
334 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE EXITS
TO THE EAST...WITH FEWER LOW CLOUDS AND ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WARMING IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRIEFLY CUTOFF THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING BEFORE BEING EJECTED EAST TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS FRIDAY AND
OPENING UP. HI-RES MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
FEATURE WITH A NARROW TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION AT
TIMES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTOR AND THROUGH THE INLAND EMPIRE. WE EXPECT THE
AREA OF CONVECTION FOCUS TO TRANSITION TO THE INLAND MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION TOO.

THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND ALONG A TRAINING BAND FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO NEAR OCEANSIDE HARBOR...AND INLAND TO NEAR
ONYX PEAK. HI-RES CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE INLAND MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 1000+ J/KG. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PRIMARILY FOR INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE OUR REGION IS PLACED ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

ONSHORE FLOW...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL VALLEYS TOO.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL BUILD WEST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND BRING A MINOR WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LATE AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
201000Z...PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES FROM 2100-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS
TO 3100 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST...STRETCHING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR KCRQ INLAND TO
THE MOUNTAINS NEAR KRIV...WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY STRATUS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES.

&&

.MARINE...
300 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...ROUGH SEAS AND
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
OBSERVED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 201034
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
334 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE EXITS
TO THE EAST...WITH FEWER LOW CLOUDS AND ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WARMING IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRIEFLY CUTOFF THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING BEFORE BEING EJECTED EAST TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS FRIDAY AND
OPENING UP. HI-RES MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
FEATURE WITH A NARROW TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION AT
TIMES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTOR AND THROUGH THE INLAND EMPIRE. WE EXPECT THE
AREA OF CONVECTION FOCUS TO TRANSITION TO THE INLAND MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION TOO.

THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND ALONG A TRAINING BAND FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO NEAR OCEANSIDE HARBOR...AND INLAND TO NEAR
ONYX PEAK. HI-RES CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE INLAND MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 1000+ J/KG. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PRIMARILY FOR INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE OUR REGION IS PLACED ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

ONSHORE FLOW...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL VALLEYS TOO.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL BUILD WEST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND BRING A MINOR WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LATE AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
201000Z...PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES FROM 2100-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS
TO 3100 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST...STRETCHING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR KCRQ INLAND TO
THE MOUNTAINS NEAR KRIV...WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY STRATUS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES.

&&

.MARINE...
300 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...ROUGH SEAS AND
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
OBSERVED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT









000
FXUS66 KSGX 200423
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT THE COAST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS.. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS
TO THE EAST...WITH FEWER LOW CLOUDS AND ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WARMING IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIN CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE MOVED
OVER FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
OVERALL...SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST. UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND MOVING
EAST...AND INSTABILITY RELATED TO THE LOW PLUS INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS...WITH BEST MOISTURE INCREASES BETWEEN
600 MB AND 800 MB...WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE HAD RATHER LARGE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES...WITH
MAXIMUM UNSTABLE CAPES OF OVER 500 J/KG AT TIMES IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY.
SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL. 500 MB TEMPS
FALL AS LOW AS AROUND -13 OR -14 DEG C...VERY LOW FOR AUGUST.
ALSO...THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALOFT...ABOUT 45 DEGREES IN
THE 850-500 MB LAYER...TO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
HAPPEN MOST ANYWHERE...INCLUDING NEAR THE COAST. DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AS
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITH SOME EVAPORATION OF THE
RAINDROPS BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. INSTABILITY STAYS HIGH ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST...BUT THEN THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY AND RH
ALOFT DECREASE NEAR THE COAST. THE CHANCES OF ANY FLOODING APPEAR TO
BE FAIRLY LOW AS PW VALUES STAY BELOW 1.5 INCHES AT THE COAST AND IN
THE LOWER DESERTS.

STARTING FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER. FOR NOW...NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...BUT CUMULUS COULD FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. THE PROFILE WARMS...SO TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK TO
ALMOST NORMAL FOR AUGUST. SOME LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
COULD BRING SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECM AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH SOME
RIDGING WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OFF THE COAST WHICH COULD BRING WARM TO
HOT WEATHER INLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
LOW GIVEN THE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
200300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN COASTAL AREAS THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. BASES WILL BE AROUND
2000 FEET MSL WITH TOPS TO 3000 FEET. LOCAL VIS 3-5SM ALONG INLAND
EXTENT OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-16Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED
BY 17-19Z. OVER ALL AREAS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE
MIGRATES INTO MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHEN/WHERE
TSTORMS OCCUR...ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO COASTAL AIRPORTS WEDNESDAY EVENING
AROUND 03-06Z. BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...MM







000
FXUS66 KSGX 192036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER FOR EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER STILL AROUND 2500 FT
DEEP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME PATCHY ALONG THE BEACHES. THE COASTAL EDDY
REMAINS IN PLACE AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ONSHORE WITH +6.8 MB
SAN-TPH AND +6.6 MB SAN-IPL. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL EDDY
PERSISTING...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO MOVE ASHORE THIS EVENING AND
EXTEND INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES BY LATE TONIGHT.

THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MONTEREY CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOCAL BY WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST AND
OPEN INTO A WAVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN THU AFTERNOON.
AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION IT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BEGINNING WED MORNING AND CONTINUING AT TIMES
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE PROJECTED
INSTABILITY FIELDS...ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SPREAD SE DURING THE DAY ON
WED...BECOMING ENHANCED OVER THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON THU WILL BE MOSTLY OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY END THU NIGHT AND FAIR
WEATHER RETURN FOR FRI AS THE LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO AZ AND DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WEST OF THE MTNS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD BE DISRUPTED AT TIMES ON WED MORNING
BY THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION ABOVE...BUT THE STRATUS FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY INTACT.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FAIR AND WARMER WITH DRY W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER KEEPING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION...
192000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A VERY WELL DEFINED COASTAL EDDY IS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS JUST OFF SHORE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
RIGHT BACK INLAND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE AND HEATING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2000 FEET MSL OR ABOVE WITH
TOPS TO 2500 FT. CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL DEFINITELY RETURN THIS
EVENING AFTER 4 PM WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MORE
INLAND BY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8000 TO 10000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER 201000Z THROUGH WED
EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH EXCEPT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE AN INCREASING SOUTH SWELL IS THE
ONLY MARINE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE







000
FXUS66 KSGX 192036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER FOR EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER STILL AROUND 2500 FT
DEEP AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME PATCHY ALONG THE BEACHES. THE COASTAL EDDY
REMAINS IN PLACE AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ONSHORE WITH +6.8 MB
SAN-TPH AND +6.6 MB SAN-IPL. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL EDDY
PERSISTING...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO MOVE ASHORE THIS EVENING AND
EXTEND INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES BY LATE TONIGHT.

THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MONTEREY CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOCAL BY WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST AND
OPEN INTO A WAVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN THU AFTERNOON.
AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION IT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BEGINNING WED MORNING AND CONTINUING AT TIMES
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE PROJECTED
INSTABILITY FIELDS...ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SPREAD SE DURING THE DAY ON
WED...BECOMING ENHANCED OVER THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON THU WILL BE MOSTLY OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY END THU NIGHT AND FAIR
WEATHER RETURN FOR FRI AS THE LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO AZ AND DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WEST OF THE MTNS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD BE DISRUPTED AT TIMES ON WED MORNING
BY THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION ABOVE...BUT THE STRATUS FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY INTACT.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FAIR AND WARMER WITH DRY W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER KEEPING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION...
192000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A VERY WELL DEFINED COASTAL EDDY IS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS JUST OFF SHORE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
RIGHT BACK INLAND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE AND HEATING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2000 FEET MSL OR ABOVE WITH
TOPS TO 2500 FT. CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL DEFINITELY RETURN THIS
EVENING AFTER 4 PM WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MORE
INLAND BY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8000 TO 10000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER 201000Z THROUGH WED
EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH EXCEPT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE AN INCREASING SOUTH SWELL IS THE
ONLY MARINE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE






000
FXUS66 KSGX 191626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER FOR EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2700 FT DEEP WITH
DRY AIR AND WEST WINDS ABOVE A STRONG INVERSION. A COASTAL EDDY AND
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO SPREAD
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE
INLAND EMPIRE. THE STRATUS IS IN THE PROCESS OF BURNING OFF...BUT
THIS MAY BE SLOW AND PATCHES OF STRATUS MAY LINGER ALONG THE BEACHES
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MONTEREY COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOCAL BY WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST AND OPEN
INTO A WAVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN THU AFTERNOON. AS
THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION IT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BEGINNING WED MORNING AND CONTINUING AT TIMES
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE PROJECTED
INSTABILITY FIELDS...ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SPREAD SE DURING THE DAY ON
WED...BECOMING ENHANCED OVER THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON THU WILL BE MOSTLY OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY END THU NIGHT AND FAIR
WEATHER RETURN FOR FRI AS THE LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO AZ AND DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WEST OF THE MTNS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD BE DISRUPTED AT TIMES ON WED MORNING
BY THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION ABOVE...BUT THE STRATUS FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY INTACT.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FAIR AND WARMER WITH DRY W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER KEEPING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION...
191530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A VERY WELL DEFINED COASTAL EDDY IS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH
TO BREAK UP THIS STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
AIRPORTS TODAY. IF IT DOES TODAY...IT WILL BE FROM AROUND NOON UNTIL
3 OR 4 PM PDT. BASES ARE GENERALLY 1500 FEET MSL OR ABOVE WITH TOPS
TO 2500 FT. CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL DEFINITELY RETURN THIS
EVENING AFTER 4 PM WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN COASTAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MTNS/DESERTS...A FEW CU OR TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8000 FT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
9 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE







000
FXUS66 KSGX 191626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER FOR EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2700 FT DEEP WITH
DRY AIR AND WEST WINDS ABOVE A STRONG INVERSION. A COASTAL EDDY AND
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO SPREAD
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE
INLAND EMPIRE. THE STRATUS IS IN THE PROCESS OF BURNING OFF...BUT
THIS MAY BE SLOW AND PATCHES OF STRATUS MAY LINGER ALONG THE BEACHES
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MONTEREY COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOCAL BY WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST AND OPEN
INTO A WAVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN THU AFTERNOON. AS
THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION IT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BEGINNING WED MORNING AND CONTINUING AT TIMES
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE PROJECTED
INSTABILITY FIELDS...ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SPREAD SE DURING THE DAY ON
WED...BECOMING ENHANCED OVER THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON THU WILL BE MOSTLY OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY END THU NIGHT AND FAIR
WEATHER RETURN FOR FRI AS THE LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO AZ AND DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WEST OF THE MTNS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD BE DISRUPTED AT TIMES ON WED MORNING
BY THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION ABOVE...BUT THE STRATUS FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY INTACT.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FAIR AND WARMER WITH DRY W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER KEEPING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION...
191530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A VERY WELL DEFINED COASTAL EDDY IS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH
TO BREAK UP THIS STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
AIRPORTS TODAY. IF IT DOES TODAY...IT WILL BE FROM AROUND NOON UNTIL
3 OR 4 PM PDT. BASES ARE GENERALLY 1500 FEET MSL OR ABOVE WITH TOPS
TO 2500 FT. CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL DEFINITELY RETURN THIS
EVENING AFTER 4 PM WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN COASTAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MTNS/DESERTS...A FEW CU OR TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8000 FT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
9 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE






000
FXUS66 KSGX 191040
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...WILL
BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE DID GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THIS MOMENT IT IS JUST
GENERATING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...A HEALTHY ONSHORE PUSH IS
UNDERWAY AND THE MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND ARE INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND EMPIRE. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGHTEN LATER
TODAY SO WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED HEALTHY ONSHORE MARINE PUSH
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE ECM...AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE WPC DISCUSSION MENTIONED EARLIER THIS MORNING
(SEE PMDEPD) SHOWS A GOOD AGREEMENT AND A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CUTS
OFF AND DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND REACHES POINT
CONCEPTION AROUND 6Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EAST TO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TAP A NARROW RIBBON OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
(SEE THE LATEST SPC SREF MOISTURE FIELDS) AND COMBINED WITH DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FIRE UP SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOCAL COASTAL WATERS...INTO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW BUT WITH
ANY STORM CLOUD TO GROUND (AND WATER) STRIKES ARE A REAL THREAT.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND FORECAST INSTABILITY FIELD. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE LESS WITH THE MOISTURE FIELD
LIKELY TO BE SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ONSHORE
FLOW ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG. THEREFORE WE EXPECT TO SEE
CONTINUED MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
NORMAL RANGE FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
190345Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1600-1900 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL WILL SPREAD SLIGHTLY FURTHER INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCAL VIS 3-5SM WHERE CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS BEGINNING TO CLEAR INLAND 16-18Z AND
NEAR THE COAST 18-20Z. STRATUS MAY LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN
19/23Z-20/02Z AND MOVING 35-40 SM INLAND OVERNIGHT. BASES WILL
GENERALLY BE 1800-2200 FT MSL WITH TOPS 2500-3000 FT MSL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY WED MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN COASTAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MTNS/DESERTS...PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-4000 FT MSL OVER THE
LOW DESERTS SHOULD CLEAR BY 15Z. CU/TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8000 FT
DEVELOPING OVER THE MTN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
3 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 191040
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...WILL
BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE DID GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THIS MOMENT IT IS JUST
GENERATING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...A HEALTHY ONSHORE PUSH IS
UNDERWAY AND THE MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND ARE INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INLAND EMPIRE. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGHTEN LATER
TODAY SO WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED HEALTHY ONSHORE MARINE PUSH
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE ECM...AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE WPC DISCUSSION MENTIONED EARLIER THIS MORNING
(SEE PMDEPD) SHOWS A GOOD AGREEMENT AND A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CUTS
OFF AND DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND REACHES POINT
CONCEPTION AROUND 6Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EAST TO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TAP A NARROW RIBBON OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
(SEE THE LATEST SPC SREF MOISTURE FIELDS) AND COMBINED WITH DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FIRE UP SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOCAL COASTAL WATERS...INTO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW BUT WITH
ANY STORM CLOUD TO GROUND (AND WATER) STRIKES ARE A REAL THREAT.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND FORECAST INSTABILITY FIELD. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE LESS WITH THE MOISTURE FIELD
LIKELY TO BE SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ONSHORE
FLOW ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG. THEREFORE WE EXPECT TO SEE
CONTINUED MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
NORMAL RANGE FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
190345Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1600-1900 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL WILL SPREAD SLIGHTLY FURTHER INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCAL VIS 3-5SM WHERE CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS BEGINNING TO CLEAR INLAND 16-18Z AND
NEAR THE COAST 18-20Z. STRATUS MAY LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN
19/23Z-20/02Z AND MOVING 35-40 SM INLAND OVERNIGHT. BASES WILL
GENERALLY BE 1800-2200 FT MSL WITH TOPS 2500-3000 FT MSL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY WED MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN COASTAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MTNS/DESERTS...PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-4000 FT MSL OVER THE
LOW DESERTS SHOULD CLEAR BY 15Z. CU/TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8000 FT
DEVELOPING OVER THE MTN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
3 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 190438
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
903 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PROPAGATING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER ARE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A QUICK SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BROUGHT HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. TODAYS HIGHEST
OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTAL OCCURRED AT THE SKY OAKS SITE IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...WITH 0.76 INCHES OF OBSERVED RAINFALL. THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING PUT A QUICK END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION
THIS EVENING. A FEW REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS FROM TODAYS CONVECTION ARE
STILL VISIBLE ON THE IR IMAGERY...BUT THESE SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THE LOW STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO THE COAST WITH A WEAK
COASTAL EDDY OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT...GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS LOW
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS AHEAD OF TROUGH PROPAGATING DOWN THE
WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE COAST AND
INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
CLEARING MAYBE SLOW ALONG THE COAST GIVEN THE EDDY AND POTENTIAL FOR
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY DUE TO LESS MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MARINE STRATUS REACHING INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOW CLEARING POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH...AND POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL EDDY.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...A DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFTED TO OUR
EAST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING A REDUCTION IN THE MARINE LAYER ON FRIDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
190345Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A COASTAL EDDY SPUN UP THIS
EVENING...USHERING IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO KSAN AND KCRQ WITH BASES
AROUND 1500 FEET MSL...KSNA FOLLOWING BY 06Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...REACHING KONT BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE CLOUD DECK THICKENS. LOCAL VIS COULD LOWER TO
3-5SM WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. SCATTERING OF
LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST WILL BE LATE AND LIKELY ONLY FOR A FEW
HOURS. AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS CIGS TO COASTAL AIRPORTS IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 19/23Z-20/02Z...A FEW HUNDRED FEET DEEPER AND
SPREADING FURTHER INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MTS/DESERTS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS...ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES AND THROUGH
THE BANNING PASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE WINDIER LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
845 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BA/PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...TS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 190438
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
903 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PROPAGATING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER ARE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A QUICK SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BROUGHT HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. TODAYS HIGHEST
OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTAL OCCURRED AT THE SKY OAKS SITE IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...WITH 0.76 INCHES OF OBSERVED RAINFALL. THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING PUT A QUICK END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION
THIS EVENING. A FEW REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS FROM TODAYS CONVECTION ARE
STILL VISIBLE ON THE IR IMAGERY...BUT THESE SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THE LOW STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO THE COAST WITH A WEAK
COASTAL EDDY OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT...GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS LOW
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE MID-LEVELS AHEAD OF TROUGH PROPAGATING DOWN THE
WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE COAST AND
INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
CLEARING MAYBE SLOW ALONG THE COAST GIVEN THE EDDY AND POTENTIAL FOR
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY DUE TO LESS MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MARINE STRATUS REACHING INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOW CLEARING POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH...AND POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL EDDY.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...A DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFTED TO OUR
EAST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING A REDUCTION IN THE MARINE LAYER ON FRIDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
190345Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A COASTAL EDDY SPUN UP THIS
EVENING...USHERING IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO KSAN AND KCRQ WITH BASES
AROUND 1500 FEET MSL...KSNA FOLLOWING BY 06Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...REACHING KONT BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE CLOUD DECK THICKENS. LOCAL VIS COULD LOWER TO
3-5SM WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. SCATTERING OF
LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST WILL BE LATE AND LIKELY ONLY FOR A FEW
HOURS. AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS CIGS TO COASTAL AIRPORTS IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 19/23Z-20/02Z...A FEW HUNDRED FEET DEEPER AND
SPREADING FURTHER INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MTS/DESERTS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS...ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES AND THROUGH
THE BANNING PASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE WINDIER LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
845 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BA/PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...TS








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