000
FXUS66 KSGX 240434
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 800 PM SHOWS LOW STRATUS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS...ORANGE COUNTY...AND THE INLAND EMPIRE...AS A COASTAL EDDY
DEVELOPS OVER NIGHT.
SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SO-CAL WILL REMAIN IN A
RELATIVELY STAGNATE PATTERN THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE CURRENT TREND OF MORNING LOW STRATUS FOR COASTAL AREA AND INLAND
VALLEYS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL EDDY.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EACH AFTERNON AND
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED EACH DAY THOUGH
MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 MPH.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF
REMAINS BULLISH WITH ITS FORECAST OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IF THIS WAVE WERE TO
TRACK ACROSS SOCAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST BY THE 120
HR FCST PANEL OF THE ECMWF...IT WOULD DEFINITELY RAIN. BUT THE GFS
IS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF AND FORECASTS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE VERY LEAST...BOTH PATTERNS SUPPORT SEVERAL DAYS OF
COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
240300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 2100-3500 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 4000 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND PUSH AROUND 30 SM INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN SAN
DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE BKN/SCT IN ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE. VIS OF 3-5 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE STRATUS MEETS HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS
THE COAST BTWN 16-18 UTC FRI...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN OVER THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST
AND AROUND 40 SM INLAND BY MID SAT MORNING.
MTS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND DESERT SLOPES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A 5-8 FT/11 SEC NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CHOPPY...ROUGH SEAS
IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
HIGHER AND LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL
COMBINE WITH SURF TO CREATE POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BA/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
000
FXUS66 KSGX 232020
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY. GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND THE
INLAND EMPIRE. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN STRONGLY ONSHORE...WITH
+9 MB SAN-TPH.
THE LARGE-SCALE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
VARIATIONS...BUT WE CAN EXPECT GENERALLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS...AS WELL AS
STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FOR GUSTY SW TO W WINDS IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR 2 CYCLES IN A ROW...THE
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NW AND FORMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MON NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE LOW REMAIN...MAKING THE DETAILS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NOTICEABLY LOWER TEMPS. W TO SW WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS...AND CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT SOME PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING WED AND THU.
&&
.AVIATION...
232000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED IN MOST
AREAS...BUT SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-3500FT MSL ARE LINGERING
IN ORANGE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE...AS WELL AS JUST
OFFSHORE IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER EARLY RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS TO KSAN AND KCRQ THIS EVENING BETWEEN 01-04Z. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE AT KSNA...AROUND 06-10Z...IF AT ALL. THE
SAME HOLDS FOR KONT...THOUGH CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS ARE EVEN SMALLER
THERE. IN GENERAL...BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FT MSL WITH
PATCHY AND LESS EXTENSIVE COVERAGE TONIGHT. EARLIER CLEARING
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15-17Z.
MTS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CREATE CHOPPY SEAS AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND LATE TODAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ISOLATED CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT IN
THAT AREA. THE HIGHEST/LOWEST TIDES OF THE MONTH...WITH SWINGS OF
8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SURF FOR POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FRIDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
THE COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 231632
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE MORNING NKX SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ALMOST 3000 FT DEEP
WITH SOUTH WINDS BELOW AND WEST WINDS ABV A WEAK INVERSION. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WITH +6.8 MB SAN-TPH. AT THIS
TIME...A STRONG COASTAL EDDY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER THE
INLAND EMPIRE.
A LARGE-SCALE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
VARIATIONS...BUT WE CAN EXPECT GENERALLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS...AS WELL AS
STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FOR GUSTY SW TO W WINDS IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
IN FROM THE NW AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MON NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW MAKE FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. AT
THIS TIME INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE COULD SEE EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODS OF PRECIP...MAINLY LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING WED AND
THU.
&&
.AVIATION...
231530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BASIN THIS MORNING WITH BASES GENERALLY
2500-3500FT MSL WITH TOPS UP TO 4500 FEET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY
17-18Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP AND MOVE ASHORE OVER KSAN AND KCRQ
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 01-04Z...AROUND 06-10Z AT KSNA IF AT ALL. IF
CLOUDS GET INTO KONT...IT WILL BE LATE. IN GENERAL...CLOUDS WILL BE
BASED AROUND 2500 FT MSL WITH PATCHY AND LESS EXTENSIVE COVERAGE
TONIGHT. EARLIER CLEARING EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15-17Z.
MTS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CREATE CHOPPY SEAS AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND LATE TODAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ISOLATED CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
THE HIGHEST/LOWEST TIDES OF THE MONTH...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9
FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SURF FOR POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
FRIDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
THE COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 231046
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
345 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A
STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST CENTERED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW WITH MINOR DAY TO DAY
DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE WINDIER AREAS NEAR ADVISORY STRENGTH...
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA AND NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW LOTS OF BREAKS IN THE
COASTAL STRATUS AND A DECREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD LAYER WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF BREAKS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH FOR NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS TO EXTEND INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH PATCHIER COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND THROUGH
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...AND WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXTENDING INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS COULD
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WITH ENOUGH AMPLITUDE ON A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO BRING
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER
WITH THE TIMING. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY CLOSE THE 06Z
GFS WITH THE TIMING. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS POPS JUST BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR PRECIPITATING WEATHER FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...POPS WILL
NEED TO BE INCREASED SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
230930Z...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE COASTAL
BASIN AND UP THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE
2500-3000 FEET ASL WITH TOPS UP TO 4500 FEET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY
17-18Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP AND MOVE ASHORE OVER KSAN AND KCRQ
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 01-04Z...AROUND 06-10Z AT KSNA OR NOT AT
ALL...AND VERY LATE BRIEFLY OR PROBABLY NOT AT ALL AT KONT. CLOUDS
BASED AROUND 2500 FEET ASL WILL HAVE RANDOM AND LESS EXTENSIVE
COVERAGE TONIGHT.
ABOVE AND BEYOND THE MARINE LAYER...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND IN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CREATE CHOPPY SEAS AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND LATE TODAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ISOLATED CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
HIGHER AND LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL
COMBINE WITH SURF TO CREATE POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
THE COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
000
FXUS66 KSGX 230435
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOCAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL SEE
PERIODS OF GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN
PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A DEEP CLOSED LOW ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
PERPETUATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WEST THIS WEEK...AND WILL BE
OUR DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
EXPECT A COOLER DAY TOMORROW...AND FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP A
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS EBB AND FLOW OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SMALL VARIATIONS IN ITS DEPTH. THE
APTLY NAMED "MAY GRAY" WILL BE A POPULAR PHRASE.
TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A STRONG COASTAL EDDY
THAT WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH TO GENERATE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EDDY WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LONG RANGE ECMWF AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST RESULTING IN NEGATIVE DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURES FIELDS. THE GFS FORECAST OF HIGHER
HEIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR
OF THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL RUNS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND...A FULL MOON FRIDAY WILL BRING
HIGH TIDES ABOVE 7 FEET OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 7.2 FT HIGH
TIDE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RECEDE TO -1.7 FT SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW TIDES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
230300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 2200 FT MSL
AND TOPS NEAR 2800 FT MSL...HAS DEVELOPED ALONG MOST OF THE SAN
DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND
30-50 SM INLAND BY 09 UTC TONIGHT. VIS OF 2-4 SM BR IS POSSIBLE
WHERE STRATUS MEETS HIGHER TERRAIN. A COASTAL EDDY WILL HELP LIFT
STRATUS AROUND 500 FT OVERNIGHT...AND CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE BY MID
THU MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BY 18 UTC THU
MORNING...AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND 00 UTC THU EVENING.
MTNS/DESERTS...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 50 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MTNS AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THU
MORNING...AND INCREASE AGAIN THU AFTN GUSTING TO AROUND 40 KT.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A 5-8 FT/11 SEC NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CHOPPY...ROUGH SEAS
IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
HIGHER AND LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL
COMBINE WITH SURF TO CREATE POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
000
FXUS66 KSGX 222101
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE...MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUSTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MAY CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...BASED ON THE CALENDAR AND BASED ON
THE WEATHER. THE MARINE LAYER HAS HUNG AROUND QUITE A WHILE TODAY.
A STRONG EDDY IS IN PROGRESS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SOUTHERLY AT 10
KNOTS AT KSAN. STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS OF 2 MB TO THE LOCAL DESERTS
AND OVER 4 MB TO NEVADA SHOULD HELP ENSURE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE BACK AGAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO DEEPER.
LOOKS LIKE THE COOLING TREND SHOULD SPREAD TO THE INLAND AREAS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL INTO THE WEEKEND. MANY PLACES SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN ANCHOR LOW
OVER THE WEST...SO THE TIMING OF THE RESPONSES OF THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE MODULATED BY THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THE
RESPONSE.
THE WRF-EMS BASICALLY HAS WELL FORMED EDDY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON A DAILY BASIS AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS 500 MB
ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT VALID SATURDAY HAS THE ENSEMBLES PLACING THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE...WITH LITTLE UNCERTAINTY.
THIS COMBO SHOULD HELP KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER DEEP AT LEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FURTHER OUT AROUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE TREND IN THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH MAY BE DEEPER THAN IS INDICATED IN
THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...SO THE WARMUP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK MIGHT BE
VERY MINOR.
&&
AVIATION...
222015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS HAS RETREATED OFF THE
COAST...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE THE EDDY IS
KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 23Z-03Z THIS EVENING...SPREADING TO THE
LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND
1500-2000 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 3000 FT MSL. EXPECT CLEARING TO THE
COAST BY 18Z THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY STICKING TO THE SOUTHERN
SAN DIEGO COAST AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU
MORNING. WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAKENING
TONIGHT...RETURNING SLIGHTLY WEAKER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A 3 FT...16 SEC PERIOD PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE SURF OF
3-5 FT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO THE WEEKEND. A
6-8 FT SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURF ALONG EXPOSED WEST
FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TODAY UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY FOR AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 221630
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE...MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...EXTENDING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUSTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE GOING THROUGH A COOL PERIOD
FOR A WHILE. THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR QUITE A
WHILE. IT HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN A DEEPENING COASTAL MARINE LAYER.
THIS WILL CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS BASICALLY A CHAIN OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATIING
AROUND A MAIN ANCHOR LOW OVER THE WEST...SO THE TIMING OF THE
RESPONSES OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MODULATED BY THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THE RESPONSE. THE WRF-EMS BASICALLY HAS AN EDDY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE GFS 500 MB
MEAN HEIGHT VALID SATURDAY HAS THE ENSEMBLES PLACING THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE...WITH LITTLE UNCERTAINTY. THIS COMBO
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER DEEP AT LEAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD.
&&
.AVIATION...
221530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1400-2000 FT
MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2500 FT MSL...HAS BEGUN TO ERODE FROM THE INLAND
EMPIRE AND WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST BY 18Z THIS MORNING. STRATUS
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 00-04Z THIS
EVENING...SPREADING INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 1500-2000 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 3000 FT
MSL. EXPECT CLEARING TO THE COAST BY 18Z THURSDAY MORNING.
MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU
MORNING. WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAKENING TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A 3 FT...16 SEC PERIOD PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE SURF OF
3-5 FT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO THE WEEKEND. A
6-8 FT SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURF ALONG EXPOSED WEST
FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TODAY UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY FOR AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 220918
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH MORE EXTENSIVE COASTAL
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERTS AS
WELL...BUT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY AND THURSDAY DURING AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND A CONTINUING COASTAL EDDY. AS A
RESULT THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY FILLED MOST OF THE INLAND
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OFF THE COAST IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE. WITH COOLER AIR COMING THE MARINE INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR DECENT CLEARING IN ALL AREAS TODAY. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL GATHER AND HEAD INLAND QUITE EARLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA MAXES OUT ITS AMPLIFICATION OVER THE STATE.
THAT WILL BRING OUR DEEPEST MARINE LAYER ALONG WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE CLOUDS COULD PULL A REVERSE
CLEARING PATTERN THURSDAY WITH THE COAST CLEARING BEFORE INLAND
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH LITTLE CONTRIBUTION FROM
WINDS ALOFT THESE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. AND SO THEY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND STRONGEST THROUGH AND
JUST TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS. THE SAME
WILL BE TRUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST BACKS OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY BUT CONTINUES FOR A
LONG WHILE. IT KEEPS GETTING REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVES THAT ROTATE
THROUGH THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WITH A DEEPER THAN NORMAL
MARINE LAYER. OVERALL FAIRLY SEASONAL WEATHER. ONE SHORTWAVE IN
PARTICULAR ARRIVES NEXT MONDAY (GFS MODEL) OR TUESDAY (EURO MODEL).
IT LOOKS STRONGER...SOMETHING THAT WOULD DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE DRIZZLE...AND STRONGER WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WE
WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION IN THE FORECAST. WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND
TUESDAY IS EITHER A STRONG JET STREAM HEADING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH
WIND AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS (GFS)...OR A PRETTY DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND VERY WARM WEATHER (EURO).
&&
.AVIATION...
220910Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1400-1800 FT MSL
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING. 3-5 SM
VSBY IN BR/HZ POSSIBLE IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. STRATUS WILL CLEAR 15
TO 17Z INLAND AND 16 TO 18Z NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 00-04Z...SPREADING INTO THE LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1500-2000 FT MSL.
MTNS/DESERTS...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH THU MORNING. WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAKENING
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A 3 FT...16 SEC PERIOD PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE SURF OF
3-5 FT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. A 6-8 FT
SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS NEAR SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURF ALONG EXPOSED WEST
FACING BEACHES.
SWELL AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TODAY UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY FOR AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 220400
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN TOO...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE AFTERNOON NKX SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAK MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT
ABOUT 1400 FT WITH WEST WINDS ABV AND BLO. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER ONSHORE WITH +8.5 MB SAN-TPH...AND THE GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS CONTINUE IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. AS EXPECTED...THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE NRN COACHELLA VALLEY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 48 MPH AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. NO INDICATION OF A COASTAL EDDY SO
FAR...BUT ONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COASTAL SLOPES AND THE INLAND EMPIRE BY EARLY
WED MORNING AS THE EDDY HELPS TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER.
THE LOW/TROUGH HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ITS POSITION OVER THE PAC NW
AND THE WEST COAST AND WILL STEADILY DEEPEN INTO THU. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
FOR GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A CHANCE FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE THU MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THICKEN. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL PEAK WED
NIGHT/THU...BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS AT
TIMES.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE LOW/TROUGH WILL GO THROUGH
CYCLES OF WEAKENING AND STRENGTHENING AS REINFORCING SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL DAY-TO-DAY
VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND THE INLAND
EXTENT OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE...BUT WE CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE MTNS AND DESERTS MUCH OF THE TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS NEXT TUE AND
COULD PRODUCE MINOR AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FROM THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...
220300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1200 FT MSL
AND TOPS NEAR 1700 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING...AND AROUND 30 SM INLAND BY MID WED MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT AROUND 500 FT OVERNIGHT DUE TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL EDDY. VIS 3-5 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS WHERE STRATUS IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 17 UTC WED MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY HUG THE SHORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRATUS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST AROUND 00 UTC WED EVENING.
MTNS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ALONG MTN RIDGES AND ADJACENT
DESERT SLOPES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH WED EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
AN ENHANCED...LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED
SURF OF 3-5 FT ON SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES. SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A 6-8 FT SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN
CHOPPY...ROUGH SEAS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AND ELEVATED SURF ALONG
EXPOSED WESTERLY FACING BEACHES.
SWELL AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI...WITH DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
000
FXUS66 KSGX 212045
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN TOO...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS A
RESULT...PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO
2 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES COOLER
INLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE DESERT AREAS THAT ARE STILL
RUNNING WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE ALSO INCREASING...WITH THE SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT GRADIENT UP TO
6.4 MBS AND THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL GRADIENT UP TO 6.8 MBS. FOR
THIS REASON...SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH AND BELOW
THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THE LOCAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT THESE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO BETWEEN 9 AND 10
MBS...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
COAST AND THE DESERTS. THEREFORE...BELIEVE THAT SOME OF THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS THROUGH AND BELOW THE BANNING PASS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH BY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MARINE LAYER DID BRIEFLY PULL BACK FROM THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS IN PUSHING BACK
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY
COME BACK FASTER THIS EVENING THAN THE PAST FEW EVENINGS...AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER AND THE EDDY WILL LIKELY SPIN UP
SOONER TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
2000 AND 2500 FEET...AND PUSH WELL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THESE
DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN EVEN MORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPER MARINE LAYER...THE LOCAL WRF IS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IF ANY CLEARING FOR THE BEACHES TODAY OR EVEN THE NEXT
WEEK DAYS. THIS SEEMS LIKELY...EVEN IF THE MODEL HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS WELL...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON...AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AT TIMES FOR THESE AREAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND MARINE LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO STAY RELATIVELY DEEP...WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.AVIATION...
212000Z...STRATUS CLEARED THE COAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT IS
ALREADY PUSHING BACK ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FT MSL. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO ALL COASTAL AIRPORTS BY
03Z THIS EVENING BETWEEN 1200-1800 FT MSL...SPREADING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE OVERNIGHT. A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER EDDY SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
AROUND A BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLEARING TO THE COAST
BETWEEN 17-19Z BUT LINGERING ON A FEW BEACHES. OTHERWISE...SCT
CLOUDS AOA FL200 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A 3-4 FT/16-17 SECOND PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST SURF FROM 3-5 FT ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES WITH INFREQUENT SETS TO 7 FEET.
A 6-8 FT SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED SURF ALONG EXPOSED WEST
FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 211643
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN TOO...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO INCREASE...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...CENTERED NEAR 126 WEST
AND ABOUT 45 NORTH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BECOMING THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THE GRADUAL COOLING TREND TO BEGIN TODAY...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.
IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DEAL WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND A MORE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS NOW AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP...WITH A TEN DEGREE INVERSION. FOR THIS REASON...THE MARINE
LAYER WAS ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE...AND WILL BE SLOWER TO BURN OFF TODAY. GIVEN THE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW...THE COASTAL BEACHES MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY SUN
TODAY...AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START THERE DOWNWARD TREND...EVEN THOUGH MANY
INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THESE DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN MORE EACH NIGHT...PUSHING WELL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONGER
INVERSION...THE LOCAL WRF IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY CLEARING FOR
THE BEACHES TODAY OR EVEN THE NEXT WEEK DAYS. THIS SEEMS
LIKELY...EVEN IF THE MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH
AFTERNOON...AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES FOR THESE
AREAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND MARINE LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO STAY RELATIVELY DEEP...WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.AVIATION...
211500Z...STRATUS WITH BASES 1100-1400 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2300 FT
MSL WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BETWEEN 16-18Z. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 02-05Z THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE
OVERNIGHT. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER EDDY SHOULD
KEEP CLOUDS AROUND A BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLEARING BETWEEN
17-19Z. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA FL200 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A 3-4 FT/16-17 SECOND PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST SURF FROM 3-5 FT ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES WITH INFREQUENT SETS TO 7 FEET.
A 6-8 FT SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED SURF ALONG EXPOSED WEST
FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 210942
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY...BUT COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TREND MORE ONSHORE AND A COASTAL EDDY CONTINUES
TO SPIN. EVEN THE CORNERS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE WILL GET SOME FOG BY
SUNRISE. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY LATE MORNING AND SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TODAY. EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS...THE
TEMPS AND LOW CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. CHANGE IS
COMING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS ALONG THE
WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN ACTION WILL STAY WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT IT WILL CAUSE OUR MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN AND
THE COASTAL EDDY TO STRENGTHEN. THAT WILL MEAN CLOUDS GETTING INTO
ALMOST IF NOT ALL OF THE COASTAL BASIN UP TO 3000+ FEET BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THE THICKER CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SPOTTY DRIZZLE THAT
MORNING. FOG ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR
THOSE FREEWAYS GOING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON STARTING TODAY THROUGH THOSE FAVORED
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ADJACENT DESERTS. THESE WINDS WILL PEAK DURING
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH THURSDAY REPRESENTING ITS DEEPEST EXTENT AND
LEAVES BEHIND A WEAKER BAGGY TROUGH FRIDAY. THIS RESIDUAL CYCLONIC
FLOW PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND. WE WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR A WHILE.
&&
.AVIATION...
210900Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1100-1400 FT MSL WILL
CLEAR TO THE COAST 16-18Z. STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
02-05Z AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE INLAND EMPIRE OVERNIGHT.
MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA FL200 AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY THROUGH
TUE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A 3-4 FT/16-17 SECOND PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST SURF FROM 3-5 FT ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES WITH A INFREQUENT SETS TO 7 FEET.
A 6-8 FT SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. SWELL AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS
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