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000
FXUS66 KSGX 252015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING SEASONALLY WARM SUMMER WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW NEXT WEEK WITH LESS NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING...
REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT MIDDAY...BUT WERE SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AREAS AT 1 PM PDT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER HEAVIER AMOUNTS WERE OCCURRING ALONG
THE DESERT SLOPES...IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE. ONSHORE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 3-5 MBS...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS REPORTED
THROUGH NOON.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY...
MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH. CONTINUED SEASONALLY WARM TO HOT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER SOCAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10K FT...ALTHOUGH A LOW-LEVEL SURGE OF MOISTURE
UP THE IMPERIAL AND COACHELLA VALLEYS HAS ADDED TO THE PW. GPS
ESTIMATES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IF CELLS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOT.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY T-STORMS WILL BE THE
OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE AND GUSTY DOWNDRAFT
WINDS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED ABOVE
10K FT. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED FROM ANOTHER WEAK EASTERLY WAVE...BUT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DRYING
AND A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ANOTHER PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS RUN BUT THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS DRIER SO UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR THE COAST...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HIRES MODELS
SHOW THE EDDY CONTINUING THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKENING SO EXPECT THE
MARINE LAYER TO DECREASE...BUT MAINTAIN OVER COASTAL AREAS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
252000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTH MAINLY OVER NW SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH
02Z. KONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE PRECIP. SOME STRATUS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 06Z...THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
LOW CONFIDENCE. BASES WILL BE 1200-1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1700 FT
MSL. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST AREAS BY 17Z SAT...THOUGH THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL BKN
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WILL OCCUR.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS IN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. A THUNDERSTORM COULD REACH
KPSP...WITH GREATEST THREAT BEING LIGHTNING. LOCAL VIS OF 3 MI WILL
OCCUR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BASES OF THE BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL BE
AT/ABOVE 8000 FT WITH ISOLATED TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM PDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE MINIMAL THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL



















000
FXUS66 KSGX 252015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING SEASONALLY WARM SUMMER WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW NEXT WEEK WITH LESS NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING...
REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT MIDDAY...BUT WERE SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AREAS AT 1 PM PDT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER HEAVIER AMOUNTS WERE OCCURRING ALONG
THE DESERT SLOPES...IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE MORE MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE. ONSHORE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 3-5 MBS...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS REPORTED
THROUGH NOON.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY...
MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH. CONTINUED SEASONALLY WARM TO HOT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER SOCAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10K FT...ALTHOUGH A LOW-LEVEL SURGE OF MOISTURE
UP THE IMPERIAL AND COACHELLA VALLEYS HAS ADDED TO THE PW. GPS
ESTIMATES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IF CELLS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOT.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY T-STORMS WILL BE THE
OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE AND GUSTY DOWNDRAFT
WINDS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED ABOVE
10K FT. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED FROM ANOTHER WEAK EASTERLY WAVE...BUT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DRYING
AND A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ANOTHER PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS RUN BUT THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS DRIER SO UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR THE COAST...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HIRES MODELS
SHOW THE EDDY CONTINUING THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKENING SO EXPECT THE
MARINE LAYER TO DECREASE...BUT MAINTAIN OVER COASTAL AREAS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
252000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTH MAINLY OVER NW SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH
02Z. KONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE PRECIP. SOME STRATUS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 06Z...THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
LOW CONFIDENCE. BASES WILL BE 1200-1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1700 FT
MSL. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST AREAS BY 17Z SAT...THOUGH THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL BKN
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WILL OCCUR.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS IN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. A THUNDERSTORM COULD REACH
KPSP...WITH GREATEST THREAT BEING LIGHTNING. LOCAL VIS OF 3 MI WILL
OCCUR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BASES OF THE BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL BE
AT/ABOVE 8000 FT WITH ISOLATED TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM PDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE MINIMAL THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL




















000
FXUS66 KSGX 251538
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
838 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING SEASONALLY WARM SUMMER WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BE A LITTLE DEEPER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A LITTLE SHALLOWER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
RAINFALL...EXCEPT WHERE CELLS HAVE REPEATED OVER THE SAME AREA IN
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THESE ISOLATED SPOTS COULD HAVE UP TO
ONE-HALF INCH. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE HELPED CLEAR OUT THE
MARINE STRATUS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. WEAK ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WERE IN PLACE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A TEN DEGREE C
INVERSION BASED NEAR 2000 FT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY DUE TO
HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER TODAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP
MAX TEMPS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM.

THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER SOCAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10K FT SO ANY CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. INSTEAD...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE AND GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE...
BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DRYING
AND A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ANOTHER PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS RUN BUT THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS DRIER.

FOR THE COAST...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HIRES MODELS
SHOW THE EDDY CONTINUING THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKENING SO EXPECT THE
MARINE LAYER TO DECREASE...BUT MAINTAIN OVER COASTAL AREAS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
251530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SW RIVERSIDE COUNTY THROUGH
18Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY MISS KSAN AND KCRQ BUT WILL
AFFECT KSEE AND KRNM AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCAL VIS 3 MI IN SHRA. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF BKN CIGS 1000-1500 FT
MSL TOPS TO 1700 FT MSL WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY 17Z ALONG THE
ORANGE COUNTY COAST...WITH AREAS OF BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AFTER 05Z. BASES
WILL AGAIN BE 1000-1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1700 FT MSL.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY/W RIVERSIDE COUNTY MTNS...AND AFTER 18Z IN SW
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MTNS/DESERTS. LOCAL VIS 3 MI IN SHRA. BASES OF
THE BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL BE AT/ABOVE 7000 FT WITH ISOLATED TOPS TO
35000 FT MSL. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM PDT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. WE
PREDICT NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL

















000
FXUS66 KSGX 251538
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
838 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING SEASONALLY WARM SUMMER WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BE A LITTLE DEEPER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A LITTLE SHALLOWER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
RAINFALL...EXCEPT WHERE CELLS HAVE REPEATED OVER THE SAME AREA IN
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THESE ISOLATED SPOTS COULD HAVE UP TO
ONE-HALF INCH. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE HELPED CLEAR OUT THE
MARINE STRATUS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. WEAK ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WERE IN PLACE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A TEN DEGREE C
INVERSION BASED NEAR 2000 FT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY DUE TO
HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER TODAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP
MAX TEMPS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM.

THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER SOCAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10K FT SO ANY CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. INSTEAD...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE AND GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE...
BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DRYING
AND A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ANOTHER PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS RUN BUT THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS DRIER.

FOR THE COAST...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HIRES MODELS
SHOW THE EDDY CONTINUING THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKENING SO EXPECT THE
MARINE LAYER TO DECREASE...BUT MAINTAIN OVER COASTAL AREAS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
251530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SW RIVERSIDE COUNTY THROUGH
18Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY MISS KSAN AND KCRQ BUT WILL
AFFECT KSEE AND KRNM AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCAL VIS 3 MI IN SHRA. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF BKN CIGS 1000-1500 FT
MSL TOPS TO 1700 FT MSL WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY 17Z ALONG THE
ORANGE COUNTY COAST...WITH AREAS OF BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AFTER 05Z. BASES
WILL AGAIN BE 1000-1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1700 FT MSL.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY/W RIVERSIDE COUNTY MTNS...AND AFTER 18Z IN SW
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MTNS/DESERTS. LOCAL VIS 3 MI IN SHRA. BASES OF
THE BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL BE AT/ABOVE 7000 FT WITH ISOLATED TOPS TO
35000 FT MSL. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM PDT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. WE
PREDICT NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
















000
FXUS66 KSGX 251416 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
715 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A LITTLE
SHALLOWER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL DRIFT NORTH WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
ISOLATED CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE COMBINATION OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FROM A COASTAL EDDY...AND A
SHALLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
BRING 5 TO LOCALLY 10 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THIS WOULD RETURN
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE OFFSET WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH
THE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THURSDAY.

THE RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE LIKELY NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE WITH MOISTURE
CENTERED NEAR 600 MB WITH A DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. AS THIS BAND
HAS MOVED ACROSS YUMA...IMPERIAL...AND THERMAL...IT HAS BEEN A
STRUGGLE TO GET ANY CLOUD LAYERS AS LOW AS 12000 FEET. AT MOST...
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS MIGHT GET A FEW SPRINKLES WITH LIMITED CHANCES
FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

THE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BAND ACROSS THE AREA THAN THE 00Z RUN AND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM MOVES THIS BAND ONLY VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST
MOISTURE FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO THROUGH THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR LAS VEGAS. THERE MAY BE SOME THINNING OF THIS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN SLOPES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS WITH RECENT EVENTS...THE MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION REMAINS SUBOPTIMAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AROUND
600 MB AND ABOVE WITH A DRIER SUBCLOUD LAYER. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FROM PHOENIX AROUND
3 AM SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE
GREATEST SATURATION JUST BELOW 600 MB IN A SHALLOW LAYER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST RETAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH DRYING OF THE MOISTURE SHOWN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
SOMEWHAT...ENOUGH TO KEEP GREATER MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. THE 00Z
GFS HAD SHOWN A MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING LOWER BELOW 600 MB...DRYING ALOFT
AND SLIGHTLY LESS STABILITY. THE 06Z GFS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MORE ELEVATED WITH A
DEEPER DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER.

WITH THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE END TO THE
COASTAL EDDY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON MONDAY...THEN WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
250900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL EXTENDING 5 TO LOCALLY 10 MILES INLAND.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH KSNA BY 12Z...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING COULD BE
EARLIER. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM COULD OCCUR ON THE COASTAL
MESAS...WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
ERODE TO THE COAST BETWEEN 25/1300Z-1600Z. SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS WILL
SPREAD INLAND AGAIN AFT 0700Z SAT.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS
ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI...WITH SOME CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT
MSL FRI MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD/17
AVIATION/MARINE...PG














000
FXUS66 KSGX 251416 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
715 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A LITTLE
SHALLOWER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL DRIFT NORTH WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
ISOLATED CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE COMBINATION OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FROM A COASTAL EDDY...AND A
SHALLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
BRING 5 TO LOCALLY 10 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THIS WOULD RETURN
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE OFFSET WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH
THE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THURSDAY.

THE RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE LIKELY NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE WITH MOISTURE
CENTERED NEAR 600 MB WITH A DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. AS THIS BAND
HAS MOVED ACROSS YUMA...IMPERIAL...AND THERMAL...IT HAS BEEN A
STRUGGLE TO GET ANY CLOUD LAYERS AS LOW AS 12000 FEET. AT MOST...
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS MIGHT GET A FEW SPRINKLES WITH LIMITED CHANCES
FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

THE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BAND ACROSS THE AREA THAN THE 00Z RUN AND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM MOVES THIS BAND ONLY VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST
MOISTURE FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO THROUGH THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR LAS VEGAS. THERE MAY BE SOME THINNING OF THIS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN SLOPES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS WITH RECENT EVENTS...THE MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION REMAINS SUBOPTIMAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AROUND
600 MB AND ABOVE WITH A DRIER SUBCLOUD LAYER. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FROM PHOENIX AROUND
3 AM SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE
GREATEST SATURATION JUST BELOW 600 MB IN A SHALLOW LAYER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST RETAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH DRYING OF THE MOISTURE SHOWN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
SOMEWHAT...ENOUGH TO KEEP GREATER MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. THE 00Z
GFS HAD SHOWN A MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING LOWER BELOW 600 MB...DRYING ALOFT
AND SLIGHTLY LESS STABILITY. THE 06Z GFS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MORE ELEVATED WITH A
DEEPER DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER.

WITH THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE END TO THE
COASTAL EDDY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON MONDAY...THEN WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
250900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL EXTENDING 5 TO LOCALLY 10 MILES INLAND.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH KSNA BY 12Z...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING COULD BE
EARLIER. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM COULD OCCUR ON THE COASTAL
MESAS...WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
ERODE TO THE COAST BETWEEN 25/1300Z-1600Z. SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS WILL
SPREAD INLAND AGAIN AFT 0700Z SAT.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS
ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI...WITH SOME CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT
MSL FRI MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD/17
AVIATION/MARINE...PG













000
FXUS66 KSGX 251205
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
505 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A LITTLE
SHALLOWER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE COMBINATION OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FROM A COASTAL EDDY...AND A
SHALLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
BRING 5 TO LOCALLY 10 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THIS WOULD RETURN
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE OFFSET WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH
THE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THURSDAY.

THE RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE LIKELY NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE WITH MOISTURE
CENTERED NEAR 600 MB WITH A DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. AS THIS BAND
HAS MOVED ACROSS YUMA...IMPERIAL...AND THERMAL...IT HAS BEEN A
STRUGGLE TO GET ANY CLOUD LAYERS AS LOW AS 12000 FEET. AT MOST...
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS MIGHT GET A FEW SPRINKLES WITH LIMITED CHANCES
FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

THE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BAND ACROSS THE AREA THAN THE 00Z RUN AND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM MOVES THIS BAND ONLY VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST
MOISTURE FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO THROUGH THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR LAS VEGAS. THERE MAY BE SOME THINNING OF THIS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN SLOPES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS WITH RECENT EVENTS...THE MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION REMAINS SUBOPTIMAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AROUND
600 MB AND ABOVE WITH A DRIER SUBCLOUD LAYER. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FROM PHOENIX AROUND
3 AM SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE
GREATEST SATURATION JUST BELOW 600 MB IN A SHALLOW LAYER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST RETAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH DRYING OF THE MOISTURE SHOWN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
SOMEWHAT...ENOUGH TO KEEP GREATER MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. THE 00Z
GFS HAD SHOWN A MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING LOWER BELOW 600 MB...DRYING ALOFT
AND SLIGHTLY LESS STABILITY. THE 06Z GFS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MORE ELEVATED WITH A
DEEPER DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER.

WITH THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE END TO THE
COASTAL EDDY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON MONDAY...THEN WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
250900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL EXTENDING 5 TO LOCALLY 10 MILES INLAND.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH KSNA BY 12Z...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING COULD BE
EARLIER. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM COULD OCCUR ON THE COASTAL
MESAS...WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
ERODE TO THE COAST BETWEEN 25/1300Z-1600Z. SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS WILL
SPREAD INLAND AGAIN AFT 0700Z SAT.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS
ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI...WITH SOME CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT
MSL FRI MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...PG











000
FXUS66 KSGX 251205
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
505 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A LITTLE
SHALLOWER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE COMBINATION OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FROM A COASTAL EDDY...AND A
SHALLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
BRING 5 TO LOCALLY 10 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THIS WOULD RETURN
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE OFFSET WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH
THE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THURSDAY.

THE RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE LIKELY NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE WITH MOISTURE
CENTERED NEAR 600 MB WITH A DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. AS THIS BAND
HAS MOVED ACROSS YUMA...IMPERIAL...AND THERMAL...IT HAS BEEN A
STRUGGLE TO GET ANY CLOUD LAYERS AS LOW AS 12000 FEET. AT MOST...
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS MIGHT GET A FEW SPRINKLES WITH LIMITED CHANCES
FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

THE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BAND ACROSS THE AREA THAN THE 00Z RUN AND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM MOVES THIS BAND ONLY VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST
MOISTURE FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO THROUGH THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR LAS VEGAS. THERE MAY BE SOME THINNING OF THIS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN SLOPES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS WITH RECENT EVENTS...THE MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION REMAINS SUBOPTIMAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AROUND
600 MB AND ABOVE WITH A DRIER SUBCLOUD LAYER. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FROM PHOENIX AROUND
3 AM SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE
GREATEST SATURATION JUST BELOW 600 MB IN A SHALLOW LAYER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST RETAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH DRYING OF THE MOISTURE SHOWN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
SOMEWHAT...ENOUGH TO KEEP GREATER MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. THE 00Z
GFS HAD SHOWN A MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING LOWER BELOW 600 MB...DRYING ALOFT
AND SLIGHTLY LESS STABILITY. THE 06Z GFS BACKED OFF FROM THIS
MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MORE ELEVATED WITH A
DEEPER DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER.

WITH THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE END TO THE
COASTAL EDDY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON MONDAY...THEN WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
250900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL EXTENDING 5 TO LOCALLY 10 MILES INLAND.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH KSNA BY 12Z...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING COULD BE
EARLIER. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM COULD OCCUR ON THE COASTAL
MESAS...WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
ERODE TO THE COAST BETWEEN 25/1300Z-1600Z. SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS WILL
SPREAD INLAND AGAIN AFT 0700Z SAT.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS
ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI...WITH SOME CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT
MSL FRI MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...PG










000
FXUS66 KSGX 250436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING VERY
WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONTINUED VERY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS AT CAMPO (107) AND IDYLLWILD (96). HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED
115 IN THE LOWER DESERTS BUT FELL SHY OF BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ON FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL FEEL
A LITTLE MORE HUMID AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND THE MOUNTAINS
AND LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY. THE COASTAL ZONES WILL BE SPARED FROM THE
HEAT BY A MARINE LAYER THAT WILL GROW A LITTLE DEEPER TONIGHT AS A
WEAK CATALINA EDDY SPINS UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE EDDY
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. COOL OCEAN WATER AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HOLD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST.

SMALL CUMULUS FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THEY WILL HAVE BETTER
GROWTH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS MOISTURE SURGE IS
APPARENT ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP THIS EVENING WITH MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO. PERSISTENT SSE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
ABOVE 10KFT...AND THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINS TO A
MINIMUM. ADDITIONALLY...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH ANY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY WHEN A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SO-CAL. PWATS PEAK BTWN 1.5-1.6
INCHES DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. A BROAD
AREA OF NVA AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE COUPLED
WITH MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL CURTAIL OUR CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONG RANGE PROGS SHOW A SMALL
RESURGENCE IN MOISTURE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER STAGES OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO MENTION PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
250300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 800-1000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL WILL PUSH 5-10 MILES INLAND TONIGHT BETWEEN
25/0900Z-1200Z...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LOCAL
VIS BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS...WHERE THE CLOUDS
INTERSECT TERRAIN. KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA WILL HAVE CIGS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TO THE COAST
BETWEEN 25/1300Z-1600Z. SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND
TOPS WILL PUSH INLAND AGAIN DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AFT 26/0700Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI...WITH
SOME CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL FRI MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 8 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE ACTIVATED THIS WEEKEND FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY  DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE


&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT












000
FXUS66 KSGX 250436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING VERY
WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONTINUED VERY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS AT CAMPO (107) AND IDYLLWILD (96). HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED
115 IN THE LOWER DESERTS BUT FELL SHY OF BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ON FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL FEEL
A LITTLE MORE HUMID AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND THE MOUNTAINS
AND LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY. THE COASTAL ZONES WILL BE SPARED FROM THE
HEAT BY A MARINE LAYER THAT WILL GROW A LITTLE DEEPER TONIGHT AS A
WEAK CATALINA EDDY SPINS UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE EDDY
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. COOL OCEAN WATER AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HOLD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST.

SMALL CUMULUS FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THEY WILL HAVE BETTER
GROWTH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS MOISTURE SURGE IS
APPARENT ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP THIS EVENING WITH MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM MEXICO. PERSISTENT SSE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
ABOVE 10KFT...AND THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINS TO A
MINIMUM. ADDITIONALLY...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH ANY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY WHEN A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SO-CAL. PWATS PEAK BTWN 1.5-1.6
INCHES DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. A BROAD
AREA OF NVA AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE COUPLED
WITH MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL CURTAIL OUR CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONG RANGE PROGS SHOW A SMALL
RESURGENCE IN MOISTURE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER STAGES OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO MENTION PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
250300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 800-1000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL WILL PUSH 5-10 MILES INLAND TONIGHT BETWEEN
25/0900Z-1200Z...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LOCAL
VIS BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS...WHERE THE CLOUDS
INTERSECT TERRAIN. KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA WILL HAVE CIGS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TO THE COAST
BETWEEN 25/1300Z-1600Z. SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND
TOPS WILL PUSH INLAND AGAIN DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AFT 26/0700Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI...WITH
SOME CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL FRI MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 8 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE ACTIVATED THIS WEEKEND FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY  DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE


&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT











000
FXUS66 KSGX 241944
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING HOT
WEATHER INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
WEEKEND. QUITE WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HOT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE
EVIDENT INLAND. ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...LOW
MARINE CLOUDS PERSISTED LOCALLY. CLOUDS WERE MORE PREVALENT ALONG
THE WESTERN BAJA COAST. AT MIDDAY...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT NOON AT MANY MOUNTAIN AND
VALLEY SITES. BLENDED SATELLITE TPW SHOWS OVER TWO INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CA AT MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PW WAS SLOWLY
INCREASING OVER SOCAL FROM THE SE.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND AGAIN FOR FRI. ALONG THE
COAST...A SEA BREEZE AND SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP IT COOLER.
FOR TOMORROW...MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD INCREASE HIGHER CLOUDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WITH THE ADDED
HUMIDITY...IT MAY BE JUST AS UNCOMFORTABLE INLAND.

ALONG THE COAST...HI RES MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK EDDY IN RESPONSE
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND AN ADVANCING WEAK SUBTROPICAL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE COASTAL
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. OVERALL...A BIT COOLER ON FRI.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING ON FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO
THE INCREASED MOISTURE. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...TAKING ON MORE OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING FROM SOCAL...EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN TX...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE BACKING
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES
AND A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...THESE NUANCES IN THE
FLOW ARE WEAK INDICATORS AT THIS POINT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN WARMER AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS
THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN MUTED
FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TRACKING THE VERY
WEAK EASTERLY WAVES CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH...AND THE VARIOUS
MODEL MOISTURE FIELD DIFFERENCES.

ALONG THE COAST...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...MILD OCEAN WATER TEMPS...
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
242000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH LOCAL BKN CIGS
AROUND 800 FT MSL. FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 10-15
MI OF THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. MOST CIGS WILL BE 800-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT
MSL. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS.
KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA WILL HAVE CIGS...THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BY 17Z FRI.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. MOSTLY
SCT CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI...WITH SOME
CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL FRI MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 1 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY  DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE


&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL












000
FXUS66 KSGX 241944
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING HOT
WEATHER INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
WEEKEND. QUITE WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HOT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE
EVIDENT INLAND. ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...LOW
MARINE CLOUDS PERSISTED LOCALLY. CLOUDS WERE MORE PREVALENT ALONG
THE WESTERN BAJA COAST. AT MIDDAY...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT NOON AT MANY MOUNTAIN AND
VALLEY SITES. BLENDED SATELLITE TPW SHOWS OVER TWO INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CA AT MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PW WAS SLOWLY
INCREASING OVER SOCAL FROM THE SE.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND AGAIN FOR FRI. ALONG THE
COAST...A SEA BREEZE AND SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP IT COOLER.
FOR TOMORROW...MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD INCREASE HIGHER CLOUDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WITH THE ADDED
HUMIDITY...IT MAY BE JUST AS UNCOMFORTABLE INLAND.

ALONG THE COAST...HI RES MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK EDDY IN RESPONSE
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND AN ADVANCING WEAK SUBTROPICAL
WAVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE COASTAL
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. OVERALL...A BIT COOLER ON FRI.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING ON FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO
THE INCREASED MOISTURE. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...TAKING ON MORE OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING FROM SOCAL...EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN TX...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE BACKING
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES
AND A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...THESE NUANCES IN THE
FLOW ARE WEAK INDICATORS AT THIS POINT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN WARMER AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS
THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN MUTED
FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TRACKING THE VERY
WEAK EASTERLY WAVES CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH...AND THE VARIOUS
MODEL MOISTURE FIELD DIFFERENCES.

ALONG THE COAST...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...MILD OCEAN WATER TEMPS...
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
242000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH LOCAL BKN CIGS
AROUND 800 FT MSL. FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 10-15
MI OF THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. MOST CIGS WILL BE 800-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT
MSL. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS.
KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA WILL HAVE CIGS...THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BY 17Z FRI.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. MOSTLY
SCT CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI...WITH SOME
CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL FRI MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 1 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY  DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE


&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 241558
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
858 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
WEEKEND. QUITE WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER WAS MAINTAINING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION AND WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 20K
FT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE NEUTRAL TO THE GREAT BASIN AND
WEAK ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. TEMPERATURES AT 8 AM PDT WERE
RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE VALUES OBSERVED 24 HOURS PRIOR AT MANY
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY SITES.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY INLAND...WHILE THE
BEACHES SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ACROSS THE MTNS/DESERTS. ALONG
THE COAST A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD
MODERATE TEMPERATURES. FOR TOMORROW...MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INFLUX
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH SHOULD INCREASE HIGHER CLOUDS AND
RAISE DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
WITH THE ADDED HUMIDITY...IT MAY BE JUST AS UNCOMFORTABLE INLAND.
ALONG THE COAST...HI RES MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK EDDY IN RESPONSE TO
AN ADVANCING WEAK SUBTROPICAL WAVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. OVERALL...A
BIT COOLER ON FRI.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...TAKING ON MORE OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING FROM SOCAL...EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN TX...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE BACKING
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL...POSSIBLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND WHEN
THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES AND A WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN WARMER AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS
THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHT IN THE FORECAST FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
TRACKING THE VERY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES CIRCULATING AROUND THE
HIGH...AND THE VARIOUS MODEL MOISTURE FIELD DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
241500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS/FOG WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TO NEAR
THE COAST BY 16Z...WITH LOCAL BKN CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BASES WILL BE 700-800 FT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 1000 FT MSL. MOST VIS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 5 MI
BY 16Z. FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 10-15 MI OF THE
COAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
MOST CIGS WILL BE 800-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL. LOCAL
VIS BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA
WILL HAVE CIGS...THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE. MOST
AREAS WILL CLEAR BY 16Z FRI.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 15000 FT MSL TODAY THROUGH
FRI...WITH SOME CUMULUS WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 8 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE


&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL









000
FXUS66 KSGX 241558
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
858 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
WEEKEND. QUITE WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER WAS MAINTAINING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION AND WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 20K
FT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE NEUTRAL TO THE GREAT BASIN AND
WEAK ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. TEMPERATURES AT 8 AM PDT WERE
RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE VALUES OBSERVED 24 HOURS PRIOR AT MANY
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY SITES.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY INLAND...WHILE THE
BEACHES SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ACROSS THE MTNS/DESERTS. ALONG
THE COAST A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD
MODERATE TEMPERATURES. FOR TOMORROW...MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INFLUX
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH SHOULD INCREASE HIGHER CLOUDS AND
RAISE DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
WITH THE ADDED HUMIDITY...IT MAY BE JUST AS UNCOMFORTABLE INLAND.
ALONG THE COAST...HI RES MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK EDDY IN RESPONSE TO
AN ADVANCING WEAK SUBTROPICAL WAVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. OVERALL...A
BIT COOLER ON FRI.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...TAKING ON MORE OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING FROM SOCAL...EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN TX...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE BACKING
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL...POSSIBLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND WHEN
THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES AND A WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN WARMER AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS
THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHT IN THE FORECAST FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
TRACKING THE VERY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES CIRCULATING AROUND THE
HIGH...AND THE VARIOUS MODEL MOISTURE FIELD DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
241500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS/FOG WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TO NEAR
THE COAST BY 16Z...WITH LOCAL BKN CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BASES WILL BE 700-800 FT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 1000 FT MSL. MOST VIS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 5 MI
BY 16Z. FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 10-15 MI OF THE
COAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
MOST CIGS WILL BE 800-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL. LOCAL
VIS BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA
WILL HAVE CIGS...THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE. MOST
AREAS WILL CLEAR BY 16Z FRI.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 15000 FT MSL TODAY THROUGH
FRI...WITH SOME CUMULUS WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 8 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE


&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL








000
FXUS66 KSGX 241015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
315 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY PUSHING WEST AROUND SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND AND A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS MORNING. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER ARIZONA AND MEXICO ARE DRIFTING INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL. EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST TO CLEAR QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY AWAY FROM THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE LOW DESERTS WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 114 TO 118 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPS IN THE
HIGH DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE WILL BE IN THE LOW 100S...MID 80S
TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS...LOW 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NEAR THE BEACHES. THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL PLUMES OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE...HOWEVER LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MARGINAL DRYING
OCCURS BY THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT JUST EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME VIRGA FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH A DROPS MAY REACH
THE SURFACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MINOR COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
WITH THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS...THOUGH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
OFFER LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR
CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE PEAKS AND A WEAK WAVE ROTATES
NORTH AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM WEATHER TO PREVAIL WITH
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

MOISTURE DECREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE WAVE AND THE UPPER
HIGH EXPANDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD OVER CA. OTHERWISE VERY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT
OVERALL IS MARGINAL. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
240930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL. KSAN AND KCRQ 24/0900Z-
1400Z...SCT/BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-1000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
WITH TOPS TO 1300 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BANK ALONG COAST
AND OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND OVER THE AIRPORTS. AFTER 24/1400Z FEW
HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FT. AFTER 25/0800Z SCT/BKN CLOUDS
MAY FORM BETWEEN 700-1200 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND PUSH 5-10
MILES INLAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.


MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 2 AM PDT...NW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE TO DROP AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM. OTHERWISE
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE






000
FXUS66 KSGX 241015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
315 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY PUSHING WEST AROUND SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND AND A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS MORNING. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER ARIZONA AND MEXICO ARE DRIFTING INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL. EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST TO CLEAR QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY AWAY FROM THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE LOW DESERTS WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 114 TO 118 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPS IN THE
HIGH DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE WILL BE IN THE LOW 100S...MID 80S
TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS...LOW 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NEAR THE BEACHES. THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL PLUMES OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE...HOWEVER LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MARGINAL DRYING
OCCURS BY THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT JUST EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME VIRGA FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH A DROPS MAY REACH
THE SURFACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MINOR COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
WITH THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS...THOUGH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
OFFER LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR
CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE PEAKS AND A WEAK WAVE ROTATES
NORTH AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM WEATHER TO PREVAIL WITH
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

MOISTURE DECREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE WAVE AND THE UPPER
HIGH EXPANDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD OVER CA. OTHERWISE VERY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT
OVERALL IS MARGINAL. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
240930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL. KSAN AND KCRQ 24/0900Z-
1400Z...SCT/BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-1000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
WITH TOPS TO 1300 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BANK ALONG COAST
AND OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND OVER THE AIRPORTS. AFTER 24/1400Z FEW
HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FT. AFTER 25/0800Z SCT/BKN CLOUDS
MAY FORM BETWEEN 700-1200 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND PUSH 5-10
MILES INLAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.


MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 2 AM PDT...NW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE TO DROP AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM. OTHERWISE
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 240435
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING HOT AND
INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED VERY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

TEMPERATURES ROSE TO RECORD LEVELS IN THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY WITH A
BLISTERING 119 AT THERMAL...AND 116 AT BOTH PALM SPRINGS AND
THERMAL. THESE WERE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR (SO FAR) AT THESE
LOCATIONS.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONTRIBUTED TO THE HEATING
TODAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS ONLY 0.77"...WHICH IS 74% OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A SMALL INCREASE IN PWATS TO
AROUND 1.00". BUT IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HEAT...SO IT
WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS FROM 114 TO 118. RECORD HIGHS WITHIN REACH INCLUDE 117 AT
THERMAL...115 AT BORREGO...AND 102 AT CAMPO. IN FACT...ALL AREAS
WILL BE HOTTER TOMORROW THAN THEY WERE TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO SMALL
INCREASES IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...BUT IT PROBABLY
WON`T FEEL ANY COOLER. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE PWATS INCREASE TO
1.47". ON SATURDAY THEY INCREASE TO 1.54". THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHEN ELEVATED MOISTURE PEAKS AND AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES. BUT AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED
AND GENERATE ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...A SUMMER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WITH A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER FOR THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING EASTERLY WAVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PROGS KEEP SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL FLOW. BUT WITH THIS PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN...ANY ROGUE EASTERLY WAVE COULD TRIGGER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE
ADDED TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME ONCE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THESE FEATURES BECOMES CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
240300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SKC CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 24/1200Z-1600Z...FEW/SCT LOW
CLOUDS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL WILL APPROACH
THE COAST. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING AN OVERCAST DECK AT ANY OF THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. FEW HIGH CLOUDS AOA 1500
FT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SKC. A
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS MAY PUSH 5-10 MILES INLAND TOMORROW NIGHT AFT
25/0900Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 800 PM PDT...NW WINDS AT SAN CLEMENTE BUOY WERE SUSTAINED 19
KT...GUSTING TO 23 KT. NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
5 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT











000
FXUS66 KSGX 240435
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING HOT AND
INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED VERY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

TEMPERATURES ROSE TO RECORD LEVELS IN THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY WITH A
BLISTERING 119 AT THERMAL...AND 116 AT BOTH PALM SPRINGS AND
THERMAL. THESE WERE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR (SO FAR) AT THESE
LOCATIONS.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONTRIBUTED TO THE HEATING
TODAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS ONLY 0.77"...WHICH IS 74% OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A SMALL INCREASE IN PWATS TO
AROUND 1.00". BUT IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HEAT...SO IT
WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS FROM 114 TO 118. RECORD HIGHS WITHIN REACH INCLUDE 117 AT
THERMAL...115 AT BORREGO...AND 102 AT CAMPO. IN FACT...ALL AREAS
WILL BE HOTTER TOMORROW THAN THEY WERE TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO SMALL
INCREASES IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...BUT IT PROBABLY
WON`T FEEL ANY COOLER. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE PWATS INCREASE TO
1.47". ON SATURDAY THEY INCREASE TO 1.54". THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHEN ELEVATED MOISTURE PEAKS AND AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES. BUT AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED
AND GENERATE ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...A SUMMER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WITH A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER FOR THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING EASTERLY WAVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PROGS KEEP SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL FLOW. BUT WITH THIS PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN...ANY ROGUE EASTERLY WAVE COULD TRIGGER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE
ADDED TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME ONCE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THESE FEATURES BECOMES CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
240300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SKC CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 24/1200Z-1600Z...FEW/SCT LOW
CLOUDS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL WILL APPROACH
THE COAST. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING AN OVERCAST DECK AT ANY OF THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. FEW HIGH CLOUDS AOA 1500
FT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SKC. A
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS MAY PUSH 5-10 MILES INLAND TOMORROW NIGHT AFT
25/0900Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 800 PM PDT...NW WINDS AT SAN CLEMENTE BUOY WERE SUSTAINED 19
KT...GUSTING TO 23 KT. NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
5 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT










000
FXUS66 KSGX 232026
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY 3 TO 7
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

DRY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CO/NM EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY FOR INLAND AREAS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE LOWER
DESERTS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS NEAR 116 DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM...THEN
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND AS SE FLOW BRINGS
SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS ON SAT AND SUN. BECAUSE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT RAIN BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ALL BUT
ELIMINATING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THIS DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND...INCREASING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER VERY
SHALLOW...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
232000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 800 FT MEAN SEA LEVEL AND TOPS NEAR 1200
FT MEAN SEA LEVEL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PATCHY...AND MAY DEVELOP
AROUND 5-10 SM INLAND BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 1-3 SM DUE TO FOG/MIST WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CLEAR BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL AERODROMES REMAINING
FEW/SCT FROM LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT IS MODERATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM PDT...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 232026
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY 3 TO 7
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

DRY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CO/NM EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY FOR INLAND AREAS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE LOWER
DESERTS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS NEAR 116 DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM...THEN
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND AS SE FLOW BRINGS
SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS ON SAT AND SUN. BECAUSE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT RAIN BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ALL BUT
ELIMINATING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THIS DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND...INCREASING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER VERY
SHALLOW...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
232000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 800 FT MEAN SEA LEVEL AND TOPS NEAR 1200
FT MEAN SEA LEVEL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PATCHY...AND MAY DEVELOP
AROUND 5-10 SM INLAND BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 1-3 SM DUE TO FOG/MIST WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CLEAR BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL AERODROMES REMAINING
FEW/SCT FROM LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT IS MODERATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM PDT...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT






000
FXUS66 KSGX 231601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
JUST OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS A
SFC-BASED INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 1500 FT.

DRY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CO/NM EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY FOR INLAND AREAS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE LOWER
DESERTS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS NEAR 116 DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM...THEN
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND AS SE FLOW BRINGS
SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS ON SAT AND SUN. BECAUSE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT RAIN BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ALL BUT
ELIMINATING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THIS DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND...INCREASING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER VERY
SHALLOW...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
231530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 800 FT MEAN SEA LEVEL AND TOPS NEAR 1200
FT MEAN SEA LEVEL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PATCHY...AND MAY DEVELOP
AROUND 10 SM INLAND BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 1-3 SM DUE TO FOG/MIST WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CLEAR BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM PDT...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT






000
FXUS66 KSGX 231601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
JUST OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS A
SFC-BASED INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 1500 FT.

DRY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CO/NM EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY FOR INLAND AREAS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE LOWER
DESERTS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS NEAR 116 DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM...THEN
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND AS SE FLOW BRINGS
SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS ON SAT AND SUN. BECAUSE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT RAIN BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ALL BUT
ELIMINATING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THIS DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND...INCREASING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER VERY
SHALLOW...WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
231530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 800 FT MEAN SEA LEVEL AND TOPS NEAR 1200
FT MEAN SEA LEVEL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PATCHY...AND MAY DEVELOP
AROUND 10 SM INLAND BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 1-3 SM DUE TO FOG/MIST WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CLEAR BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM PDT...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 231052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS
WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE MARINE LAYER IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT THIS MORNING. THERE
ARE A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE BUT OTHERWISE THINGS
ARE CLEAR AS A BELL ACROSS SOCAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM MIRAMAR SHOWED A WEAK INVERSION AND A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER THAT EVIDENTLY IS JUST NOT SUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS DECKS NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOSEST DECKS ARE SOUTH OF ENSENADA IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND A DEEP DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DUE TO DRY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE
WE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECKS FOR
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...THE HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
EVIDENT TO BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS IS THAT THAT RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND TO COVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOCAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITHOUT MUCH RELIEF ON
SATURDAY. OF COURSE ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP
THE WARMING TO A MODERATE PACE...YET STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS HITTING AROUND 115 DEGREES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND
THE COACHELLA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT AS A RESULT.

THE OTHER PLAYER IN THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT HELPED TO SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOWS PRETTY
STRONG MODEL CONTINUITY IN RIDING WEST BELOW THE HIGH PRES RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FEATURE ALBEIT IN A RAGGED STATE WILL
REACH NORTHERN BAJA AND SOCAL SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY ON THE
HEELS OF A RETURN MONSOONAL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST. JUST ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO HELP KICK OFF A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS OUR INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. THE MONSOONAL FLOW
WILL BRING JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE...AND IT WILL LIKELY
GET SHUNTED OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BRINGING US
BACK TO A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
230945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 1000-1400
FT MSL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 12-15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
OCCURRENCE OF ANY CIGS AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS WILL BE PATCHY
AGAIN TONIGHT...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AT TIMES
AFTER 24/08Z WITH BASES NEAR 1000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 2 AM PDT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO
20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM
THURSDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 231052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS
WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE MARINE LAYER IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT THIS MORNING. THERE
ARE A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE BUT OTHERWISE THINGS
ARE CLEAR AS A BELL ACROSS SOCAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM MIRAMAR SHOWED A WEAK INVERSION AND A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER THAT EVIDENTLY IS JUST NOT SUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS DECKS NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOSEST DECKS ARE SOUTH OF ENSENADA IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND A DEEP DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DUE TO DRY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE
WE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECKS FOR
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...THE HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
EVIDENT TO BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS IS THAT THAT RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND TO COVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOCAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITHOUT MUCH RELIEF ON
SATURDAY. OF COURSE ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP
THE WARMING TO A MODERATE PACE...YET STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS HITTING AROUND 115 DEGREES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND
THE COACHELLA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT AS A RESULT.

THE OTHER PLAYER IN THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT HELPED TO SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOWS PRETTY
STRONG MODEL CONTINUITY IN RIDING WEST BELOW THE HIGH PRES RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FEATURE ALBEIT IN A RAGGED STATE WILL
REACH NORTHERN BAJA AND SOCAL SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY ON THE
HEELS OF A RETURN MONSOONAL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST. JUST ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO HELP KICK OFF A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS OUR INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. THE MONSOONAL FLOW
WILL BRING JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE...AND IT WILL LIKELY
GET SHUNTED OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BRINGING US
BACK TO A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
230945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 1000-1400
FT MSL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 12-15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
OCCURRENCE OF ANY CIGS AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS WILL BE PATCHY
AGAIN TONIGHT...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AT TIMES
AFTER 24/08Z WITH BASES NEAR 1000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 2 AM PDT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO
20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM
THURSDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 230442
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH THIS WEEK AND THE HEAT WILL
BUILD HEAT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE 599DM UPPER HIGH OVER COLORADO
BUILDS TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HEIGHTS PEAK NEAR 595DM OVER SO-CAL. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWERS DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 115...AND HIGHS IN THE
INLAND EMPIRE WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 100-105. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET BY WEEKS
END. LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD AND LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THOUGH...WHICH WILL MODERATE
TEMPS NEAR THE COAST.

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 10000 FEET AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.82". THE WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A GREATER INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ELEVATED SO THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION. CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY WHEN AN EASTERLY WAVE TREKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BRINGING GREATER INSTABILITY.

OUTLOOK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY MONSOON FLOW WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WITH ANY SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
230330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 1000 FT
MSL AND TOPS 1500 FT MSL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND AFT
23/0900Z AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BEACHES AND COASTAL MESAS.
IMPACTS FOR THE COASTAL AIRPORTS WILL BE A BRIEF LOW CEILING IF THE
CLOUDS PUSH FAR ENOUGH INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE. EXPECT THESE LOW
CLOUDS TO ERODE BACK TO THE COAST BETWEEN 23/1300Z-1600Z. LOW CLOUDS
WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS WILL PUSH INLAND AFT 24/0500Z TUESDAY
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 8 PM PDT...THE SAN CLEMENTE BUOY WAS REPORTED WINDS SUSTAINED 19
KT GUSTING TO 23 KT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM
THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT










000
FXUS66 KSGX 230442
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH THIS WEEK AND THE HEAT WILL
BUILD HEAT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE 599DM UPPER HIGH OVER COLORADO
BUILDS TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HEIGHTS PEAK NEAR 595DM OVER SO-CAL. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWERS DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 115...AND HIGHS IN THE
INLAND EMPIRE WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 100-105. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET BY WEEKS
END. LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD AND LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THOUGH...WHICH WILL MODERATE
TEMPS NEAR THE COAST.

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 10000 FEET AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.82". THE WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A GREATER INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ELEVATED SO THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION. CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY WHEN AN EASTERLY WAVE TREKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BRINGING GREATER INSTABILITY.

OUTLOOK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY MONSOON FLOW WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WITH ANY SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
230330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 1000 FT
MSL AND TOPS 1500 FT MSL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND AFT
23/0900Z AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BEACHES AND COASTAL MESAS.
IMPACTS FOR THE COASTAL AIRPORTS WILL BE A BRIEF LOW CEILING IF THE
CLOUDS PUSH FAR ENOUGH INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE. EXPECT THESE LOW
CLOUDS TO ERODE BACK TO THE COAST BETWEEN 23/1300Z-1600Z. LOW CLOUDS
WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS WILL PUSH INLAND AFT 24/0500Z TUESDAY
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 8 PM PDT...THE SAN CLEMENTE BUOY WAS REPORTED WINDS SUSTAINED 19
KT GUSTING TO 23 KT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...WHICH MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM
THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT











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