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000
FXUS66 KSGX 061525
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG INVERSION MAY HOLD JULY
GLOOM OVER SOME COASTAL AREAS AGAIN TODAY...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
INLAND SLOWLY CLEAR. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL JULY DAY. FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
SPREADS INLAND. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN FURTHER INLAND COOLING AND PERIODS OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE
MTS/DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z MIRAMAR RELEASE...THE 12Z NAM...AND EVEN
THE LIMITED EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE PASSES AT 09Z SHOW INCREASED
INSTABILITY TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR LAYER PW...WHILE LOWER
LEVEL OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MTS. WINDS BELOW 500 MBS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND HAVE
BACKED TO THE SE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MOISTURE BELOW 9000 FT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE 500
MBS GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE FROM THE SW. COUPLE THIS WITH FULL
HEATING...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
OVER THE MTS...AND MOVING OFF INTO THE DESERTS.

THE 12Z NAM12 SHOWS THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND HAS WEAK VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDED LIFT. THE 14Z HRRR RUN ALSO HAS
CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALL ALONG THE MTN CRESTS BY 20Z.

EXPECT A FEW STRONG CELLS WITH GUSTY DOWNDRAFT OUTFLOWS...CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE MARINE
STRATUS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES...WHILE
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MTS AND DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2950 FT MSL.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THU. FALLING/HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
FURTHER COOLING THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND TEN DEGREES F BELOW AVERAGE. THE DRYING ALOFT WILL SNUFF
OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER TODAY.

GRADUALLY WARMER THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THE MARINE LAYER DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION... 061450Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC-BKN STRATUS FILLING THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...WITH BASES 1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS 2900-3200
FT MSL...WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH 1900
UTC...WITH BKN-OVC STRATUS 2000-3000 FT MSL LINGERING WITHIN 10 SM
OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 07/0200 UTC...INCLUDING KCRQ
AND KSAN. BETTER CHANCE OF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST CLEARING. 11 DEG
C MARINE LAYER INVERSION THIS MORNING. 07/0200-1500 UTC...OVC
STRATUS FILLING IN OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS AGAIN...WITH BASES
1800-2200 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE 1900-07/0200 UTC TIME-PERIOD OVER
THE MTNS AND DESERTS...WITH BASES 8000-10000 FT MSL AND CB TOPS TO
40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 750 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND MY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 061525
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG INVERSION MAY HOLD JULY
GLOOM OVER SOME COASTAL AREAS AGAIN TODAY...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
INLAND SLOWLY CLEAR. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL JULY DAY. FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
SPREADS INLAND. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN FURTHER INLAND COOLING AND PERIODS OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE
MTS/DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z MIRAMAR RELEASE...THE 12Z NAM...AND EVEN
THE LIMITED EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE PASSES AT 09Z SHOW INCREASED
INSTABILITY TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR LAYER PW...WHILE LOWER
LEVEL OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MTS. WINDS BELOW 500 MBS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND HAVE
BACKED TO THE SE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MOISTURE BELOW 9000 FT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE 500
MBS GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE FROM THE SW. COUPLE THIS WITH FULL
HEATING...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
OVER THE MTS...AND MOVING OFF INTO THE DESERTS.

THE 12Z NAM12 SHOWS THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND HAS WEAK VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDED LIFT. THE 14Z HRRR RUN ALSO HAS
CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALL ALONG THE MTN CRESTS BY 20Z.

EXPECT A FEW STRONG CELLS WITH GUSTY DOWNDRAFT OUTFLOWS...CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE MARINE
STRATUS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES...WHILE
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MTS AND DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2950 FT MSL.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THU. FALLING/HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
FURTHER COOLING THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND TEN DEGREES F BELOW AVERAGE. THE DRYING ALOFT WILL SNUFF
OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER TODAY.

GRADUALLY WARMER THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THE MARINE LAYER DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION... 061450Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC-BKN STRATUS FILLING THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...WITH BASES 1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS 2900-3200
FT MSL...WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH 1900
UTC...WITH BKN-OVC STRATUS 2000-3000 FT MSL LINGERING WITHIN 10 SM
OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 07/0200 UTC...INCLUDING KCRQ
AND KSAN. BETTER CHANCE OF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST CLEARING. 11 DEG
C MARINE LAYER INVERSION THIS MORNING. 07/0200-1500 UTC...OVC
STRATUS FILLING IN OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS AGAIN...WITH BASES
1800-2200 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE 1900-07/0200 UTC TIME-PERIOD OVER
THE MTNS AND DESERTS...WITH BASES 8000-10000 FT MSL AND CB TOPS TO
40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 750 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND MY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON





000
FXUS66 KSGX 061525
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG INVERSION MAY HOLD JULY
GLOOM OVER SOME COASTAL AREAS AGAIN TODAY...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
INLAND SLOWLY CLEAR. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL JULY DAY. FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
SPREADS INLAND. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN FURTHER INLAND COOLING AND PERIODS OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE
MTS/DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z MIRAMAR RELEASE...THE 12Z NAM...AND EVEN
THE LIMITED EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE PASSES AT 09Z SHOW INCREASED
INSTABILITY TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR LAYER PW...WHILE LOWER
LEVEL OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MTS. WINDS BELOW 500 MBS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND HAVE
BACKED TO THE SE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MOISTURE BELOW 9000 FT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE 500
MBS GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE FROM THE SW. COUPLE THIS WITH FULL
HEATING...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
OVER THE MTS...AND MOVING OFF INTO THE DESERTS.

THE 12Z NAM12 SHOWS THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND HAS WEAK VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDED LIFT. THE 14Z HRRR RUN ALSO HAS
CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALL ALONG THE MTN CRESTS BY 20Z.

EXPECT A FEW STRONG CELLS WITH GUSTY DOWNDRAFT OUTFLOWS...CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE MARINE
STRATUS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES...WHILE
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MTS AND DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2950 FT MSL.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THU. FALLING/HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
FURTHER COOLING THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND TEN DEGREES F BELOW AVERAGE. THE DRYING ALOFT WILL SNUFF
OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER TODAY.

GRADUALLY WARMER THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THE MARINE LAYER DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION... 061450Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC-BKN STRATUS FILLING THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...WITH BASES 1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS 2900-3200
FT MSL...WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH 1900
UTC...WITH BKN-OVC STRATUS 2000-3000 FT MSL LINGERING WITHIN 10 SM
OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 07/0200 UTC...INCLUDING KCRQ
AND KSAN. BETTER CHANCE OF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST CLEARING. 11 DEG
C MARINE LAYER INVERSION THIS MORNING. 07/0200-1500 UTC...OVC
STRATUS FILLING IN OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS AGAIN...WITH BASES
1800-2200 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE 1900-07/0200 UTC TIME-PERIOD OVER
THE MTNS AND DESERTS...WITH BASES 8000-10000 FT MSL AND CB TOPS TO
40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 750 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND MY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 061030
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...MOVING INLAND
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN INLAND COOLING TREND...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND PERIODS OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BRINGING AN INLAND WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. AREAS IMPACTED
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...THEN SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST MOVING
INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INLAND COOLING TREND...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND
PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FROM AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
DEEP THIS MORNING TO 4000 TO POSSIBLY 4500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP FOR JULY. AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING...THEN ONTO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES THE FOLLOWING FEW NIGHTS. CLEARING NEAR SOME
BEACHES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW OR LIMITED THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS.

INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME MOUNTAIN AND INLAND VALLEYS 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ONLY SOME
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE MAY REACH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
OR MORE. THE FORECAST 500 MB HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ARE ABOUT THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE.
BESIDES BRINGING COOLING...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING AN INLAND WARMING TREND
AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
061000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-2200 FT AND TOPS
TO 3200 FT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
MORNING. AREAS OF 3-5 SM VIS WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE VALLEYS. SLOW CLEARING INLAND 17-19Z WITH BKN-OVC CLOUDS
LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND 5-10 SM INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AT KCRQ AND KSAN. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE FURTHER INLAND AFTER 07/00Z...SPREADING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS ARE EXPECTED.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WITH BASES 10000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
305 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 061030
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...MOVING INLAND
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN INLAND COOLING TREND...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND PERIODS OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BRINGING AN INLAND WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. AREAS IMPACTED
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...THEN SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST MOVING
INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INLAND COOLING TREND...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND
PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FROM AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
DEEP THIS MORNING TO 4000 TO POSSIBLY 4500 FEET FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP FOR JULY. AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING...THEN ONTO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES THE FOLLOWING FEW NIGHTS. CLEARING NEAR SOME
BEACHES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW OR LIMITED THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS.

INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME MOUNTAIN AND INLAND VALLEYS 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ONLY SOME
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE MAY REACH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
OR MORE. THE FORECAST 500 MB HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ARE ABOUT THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE.
BESIDES BRINGING COOLING...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING AN INLAND WARMING TREND
AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
061000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-2200 FT AND TOPS
TO 3200 FT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE
MORNING. AREAS OF 3-5 SM VIS WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE VALLEYS. SLOW CLEARING INLAND 17-19Z WITH BKN-OVC CLOUDS
LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND 5-10 SM INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AT KCRQ AND KSAN. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE FURTHER INLAND AFTER 07/00Z...SPREADING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS ARE EXPECTED.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WITH BASES 10000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
305 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 060423
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
922 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES KEPT A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND
THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR SOME BEACHES EACH
DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED PRIMARILY IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS...ALONG WITH A FEW
CELLS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED IN OUR AREA
ATTM...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. A FEW OF THE STORMS IN OUR
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AREAS BECAME QUITE STRONG BETWEEN ABOUT 3 TO 6
PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH WE WEREN`T ABLE TO CONFIRM
IF ANY HAIL OCCURRED WITH THOSE STORMS.

FOR MONDAY...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH OUR
POPS FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER...WE`RE STILL EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME QUITE DEEP WITH A STRONG
INVERSION OF ABOUT 8 DEGREES CELSIUS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS THE LAST KNKX SOUNDING...COASTAL STRATUS IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING
INTO THE VALLEYS ATTM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAXIMIZE THE COASTAL INVERSION
AROUND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MESAS AND COASTAL SLOPES.

...REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 127 PM PDT)...

CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY. THE 12Z GFS MODEL IS TRENDING MORE
TOWARD STRENGTHENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEPS A TROUGH AND SW FLOW ALOFT OVER CA. THE 12Z
ECMWF DEVELOPS A BROADER HIGH OVER THE SW WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS OVER SOCAL AND A RETURN OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALOFT. BOTH SOLUTIONS LOOK DRY...AND PLACE THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS
CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

060330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC015-020 TOPS 030 SPREADING DEEP
INTO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. LOCALLY LOWER CLOUD BASES AND 2-4SM VIS
FROM 11Z-17Z MONDAY WITH LOCAL DRIZZLE AND FOG.

VALLEY AIRPORTS WILL CLEAR THROUGH 19Z MONDAY...BUT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS OF KSAN AND KCRQ MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL. KSNA COULD HAVE
SCT020 CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 19-24Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MONDAY BTWN 18-24Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY VCNTY KL35...WITH BASES 10000 FT MSL AND TOPS
TO 40000 FT MSL. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER...WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 060423
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
922 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES KEPT A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND
THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR SOME BEACHES EACH
DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED PRIMARILY IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS...ALONG WITH A FEW
CELLS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED IN OUR AREA
ATTM...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. A FEW OF THE STORMS IN OUR
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AREAS BECAME QUITE STRONG BETWEEN ABOUT 3 TO 6
PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH WE WEREN`T ABLE TO CONFIRM
IF ANY HAIL OCCURRED WITH THOSE STORMS.

FOR MONDAY...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH OUR
POPS FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER...WE`RE STILL EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME QUITE DEEP WITH A STRONG
INVERSION OF ABOUT 8 DEGREES CELSIUS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS THE LAST KNKX SOUNDING...COASTAL STRATUS IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING
INTO THE VALLEYS ATTM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAXIMIZE THE COASTAL INVERSION
AROUND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MESAS AND COASTAL SLOPES.

...REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 127 PM PDT)...

CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY. THE 12Z GFS MODEL IS TRENDING MORE
TOWARD STRENGTHENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEPS A TROUGH AND SW FLOW ALOFT OVER CA. THE 12Z
ECMWF DEVELOPS A BROADER HIGH OVER THE SW WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS OVER SOCAL AND A RETURN OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALOFT. BOTH SOLUTIONS LOOK DRY...AND PLACE THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS
CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

060330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC015-020 TOPS 030 SPREADING DEEP
INTO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. LOCALLY LOWER CLOUD BASES AND 2-4SM VIS
FROM 11Z-17Z MONDAY WITH LOCAL DRIZZLE AND FOG.

VALLEY AIRPORTS WILL CLEAR THROUGH 19Z MONDAY...BUT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS OF KSAN AND KCRQ MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL. KSNA COULD HAVE
SCT020 CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 19-24Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MONDAY BTWN 18-24Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY VCNTY KL35...WITH BASES 10000 FT MSL AND TOPS
TO 40000 FT MSL. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER...WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JAD





000
FXUS66 KSGX 052027
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
127 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES KEPT A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND
MOVES INLAND THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR
SOME BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT MIDDAY CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WERE PREVALENT FROM THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MTN CRESTS NORTHWARD TO THE HIGH DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS OVER THE SAN GORGONIO
WILDERNESS. WEST OF THE MTS...MARINE STRATUS WAS STUBBORNLY HOLDING
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND OVER SOME WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE STRENGTHENING DIURNALLY WITH
3-7 MBS TO THE DESERTS AT MIDDAY...BUT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS REMAINED
AROUND 25 MPH.

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND ANY LATE-DAY SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS THE MARINE STRATUS MOVES
INLAND...PUSHING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS AGAIN BY MORNING. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MTS/DESERTS...BUT THE CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS LESS THAN TODAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY CLEAR ONLY PARTIALLY
AGAIN TOWARD THE COAST ON MON...OTHERWISE FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES THE THEME OF BREAKING DOWN THE REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST
PACIFIC AND ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO LIFT THE CUT-OFF LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE BLOCK NE THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY FRI. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOCK OUT THE MONSOON OVER SOCAL...AND LOCK IN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS AND EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THIS WEEK. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY. THE 12Z GFS MODEL IS TRENDING MORE
TOWARD STRENGTHENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEPS A TROUGH AND SW FLOW ALOFT OVER CA. THE 12Z
ECMWF DEVELOPS A BROADER HIGH OVER THE SW WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS OVER SOCAL AND A RETURN OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALOFT. BOTH SOLUTIONS LOOK DRY...AND PLACE THE MEAN RIDGE
AXIS CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION... 052015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE COAST WITH
BASES 1300-2000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL. KSAN AND KCRQ WILL
LIKELY STAY BKN/OVC...BUT KSNA COULD HAVE SCT CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS. STRATUS WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND AFTER 01Z AND COVER MOST
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD BASES MOSTLY 1200-1700 FT MSL AND
TOPS 2500-3000 FT MSL. LOCALLY LOWER CLOUD BASES WILL BE POSSIBLE
11Z-17Z MONDAY WITH LOCAL DRIZZLE. PATCHY VIS 2-4 MI WILL OCCUR IN
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE. CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MONDAY...16-18Z IN
THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY AFTER 19Z...IF AT ALL...AT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY VCNTY KL35...AND HIGH DESERTS THROUGH
01Z...WITH BASES MOSTLY 9000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. LOCAL
WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ACTIVATION IS
POSSIBLE. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 052027
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
127 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES KEPT A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND
MOVES INLAND THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR
SOME BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT MIDDAY CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WERE PREVALENT FROM THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MTN CRESTS NORTHWARD TO THE HIGH DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS OVER THE SAN GORGONIO
WILDERNESS. WEST OF THE MTS...MARINE STRATUS WAS STUBBORNLY HOLDING
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND OVER SOME WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE STRENGTHENING DIURNALLY WITH
3-7 MBS TO THE DESERTS AT MIDDAY...BUT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS REMAINED
AROUND 25 MPH.

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND ANY LATE-DAY SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS THE MARINE STRATUS MOVES
INLAND...PUSHING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS AGAIN BY MORNING. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MTS/DESERTS...BUT THE CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS LESS THAN TODAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY CLEAR ONLY PARTIALLY
AGAIN TOWARD THE COAST ON MON...OTHERWISE FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES THE THEME OF BREAKING DOWN THE REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST
PACIFIC AND ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO LIFT THE CUT-OFF LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE BLOCK NE THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY FRI. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOCK OUT THE MONSOON OVER SOCAL...AND LOCK IN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS AND EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THIS WEEK. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY. THE 12Z GFS MODEL IS TRENDING MORE
TOWARD STRENGTHENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEPS A TROUGH AND SW FLOW ALOFT OVER CA. THE 12Z
ECMWF DEVELOPS A BROADER HIGH OVER THE SW WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS OVER SOCAL AND A RETURN OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALOFT. BOTH SOLUTIONS LOOK DRY...AND PLACE THE MEAN RIDGE
AXIS CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION... 052015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE COAST WITH
BASES 1300-2000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL. KSAN AND KCRQ WILL
LIKELY STAY BKN/OVC...BUT KSNA COULD HAVE SCT CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS. STRATUS WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND AFTER 01Z AND COVER MOST
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD BASES MOSTLY 1200-1700 FT MSL AND
TOPS 2500-3000 FT MSL. LOCALLY LOWER CLOUD BASES WILL BE POSSIBLE
11Z-17Z MONDAY WITH LOCAL DRIZZLE. PATCHY VIS 2-4 MI WILL OCCUR IN
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE. CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MONDAY...16-18Z IN
THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY AFTER 19Z...IF AT ALL...AT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY VCNTY KL35...AND HIGH DESERTS THROUGH
01Z...WITH BASES MOSTLY 9000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. LOCAL
WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ACTIVATION IS
POSSIBLE. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL





000
FXUS66 KSGX 051627
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
927 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AGAIN TODAY...
DECREASING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR SOME BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED WELL INLAND. THE MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2600 FT. THIS
WAS ABOUT 300 FT DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY ANS THE INVERSION SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVERALL
AND HAD ACTUALLY BECOME NEUTRAL FOR A TIME THIS MORNING TO NV.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AT 9 AM PDT IN THE WIND-PRONE DESERT PASSES AND
SLOPES WERE UNDER 25 MPH.

GIVEN THE INFERRED DEPTH OF THE STRATUS DECK AND VERY STRONG
INVERSION...CLEARING MY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN...EVEN AT THE COAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE STRATUS SPREADS BACK INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEST OF THE MTS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...BUT STILL SEASONALLY HOT IN THE DESERTS.

CONVECTION PARAMETERS...

MOISTURE...BASED ON GPS SENSORS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THE PW
LEVEL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MTS
ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT OVER THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS WHERE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW 1K FT DEEP HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S F...SOME OF THIS HAS BLED INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS. (MODERATE)

STABILITY...BASED ON THE NKX SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN
12Z YESTERDAY WITH A MODIFIED MU CAPE OF 604 J/K VS. 247 YESTERDAY.
THE 12Z NAM12 BASED MODEL SOUNDINGS AT 21Z OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INDICATE MU CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/K WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6. EXPERIMENTAL NUCAPS (SATELLITE DERIVED
SOUNDING) OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AT 10Z SHOWS LOW VALUES OF
MODIFIED CAPE. (WEAK/MODERATE)

WINDS...WEAK WINDS BELOW 500 MBS SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOLAR INSOLATION...FULL SUN EXPECTED FOR HEATING (STRONG)

MODEL FORECAST PRECIP...THE LATEST 12Z WRFEMS HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM RUN...OTHERWISE
DRY. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 15Z HRRR SHOWS MODEST PRECIP
BULLS EYES AT MOUNTAIN TOP ALL ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTH INTO BAJA.

SO BASED ON THE ABOVE...THUNDER IS EXPECTED AND CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER DESERTS...AND MAYBE OVER
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER CAN BE DRAWN UP THE LOWER DESERT SLOPE TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. PARAMETERS LOOK
WEAKER ON MON...WITH LESS MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIP INDICATED BY THE LATEST WRF OR NAM.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES THE THEME OF BREAKING DOWN THE REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST
PACIFIC AND ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO LIFT THE CUT-OFF LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE BLOCK NE THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY FRI. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOCK OUT THE MONSOON OVER SOCAL...AND LOCK IN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS AND EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THIS WEEK. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC MODEL STRENGTHENS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW...WHILE THE GFS FAVORS MORE OF A
WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND TROUGHING. THIS IS MOSTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD...AND WHILE BOTH SUGGEST DRY WEATHER...THE EXTENT OF
MARINE INFLUENCE INLAND...AND RESULTANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.AVIATION... 051610Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR 17-19Z TO ABOUT 5 MILES FROM THE COAST...WITH BASES
1400-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL AND AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURED. LOCAL VIS 2-4 MI WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 19Z...AREAS
OF BKN STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 01Z AND COVER MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH SIMILAR
CLOUD BASES.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BASES MOSTLY
9000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FEW
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 051627
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
927 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AGAIN TODAY...
DECREASING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR SOME BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED WELL INLAND. THE MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2600 FT. THIS
WAS ABOUT 300 FT DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY ANS THE INVERSION SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVERALL
AND HAD ACTUALLY BECOME NEUTRAL FOR A TIME THIS MORNING TO NV.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AT 9 AM PDT IN THE WIND-PRONE DESERT PASSES AND
SLOPES WERE UNDER 25 MPH.

GIVEN THE INFERRED DEPTH OF THE STRATUS DECK AND VERY STRONG
INVERSION...CLEARING MY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN...EVEN AT THE COAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE STRATUS SPREADS BACK INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEST OF THE MTS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...BUT STILL SEASONALLY HOT IN THE DESERTS.

CONVECTION PARAMETERS...

MOISTURE...BASED ON GPS SENSORS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THE PW
LEVEL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MTS
ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT OVER THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS WHERE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW 1K FT DEEP HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S F...SOME OF THIS HAS BLED INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS. (MODERATE)

STABILITY...BASED ON THE NKX SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN
12Z YESTERDAY WITH A MODIFIED MU CAPE OF 604 J/K VS. 247 YESTERDAY.
THE 12Z NAM12 BASED MODEL SOUNDINGS AT 21Z OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INDICATE MU CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/K WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6. EXPERIMENTAL NUCAPS (SATELLITE DERIVED
SOUNDING) OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AT 10Z SHOWS LOW VALUES OF
MODIFIED CAPE. (WEAK/MODERATE)

WINDS...WEAK WINDS BELOW 500 MBS SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOLAR INSOLATION...FULL SUN EXPECTED FOR HEATING (STRONG)

MODEL FORECAST PRECIP...THE LATEST 12Z WRFEMS HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM RUN...OTHERWISE
DRY. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 15Z HRRR SHOWS MODEST PRECIP
BULLS EYES AT MOUNTAIN TOP ALL ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTH INTO BAJA.

SO BASED ON THE ABOVE...THUNDER IS EXPECTED AND CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER DESERTS...AND MAYBE OVER
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER CAN BE DRAWN UP THE LOWER DESERT SLOPE TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. PARAMETERS LOOK
WEAKER ON MON...WITH LESS MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIP INDICATED BY THE LATEST WRF OR NAM.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES THE THEME OF BREAKING DOWN THE REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST
PACIFIC AND ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO LIFT THE CUT-OFF LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE BLOCK NE THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY FRI. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOCK OUT THE MONSOON OVER SOCAL...AND LOCK IN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS AND EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THIS WEEK. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC MODEL STRENGTHENS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW...WHILE THE GFS FAVORS MORE OF A
WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND TROUGHING. THIS IS MOSTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD...AND WHILE BOTH SUGGEST DRY WEATHER...THE EXTENT OF
MARINE INFLUENCE INLAND...AND RESULTANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.AVIATION... 051610Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR 17-19Z TO ABOUT 5 MILES FROM THE COAST...WITH BASES
1400-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL AND AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURED. LOCAL VIS 2-4 MI WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 19Z...AREAS
OF BKN STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 01Z AND COVER MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH SIMILAR
CLOUD BASES.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BASES MOSTLY
9000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FEW
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL





000
FXUS66 KSGX 051627
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
927 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AGAIN TODAY...
DECREASING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR SOME BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED WELL INLAND. THE MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2600 FT. THIS
WAS ABOUT 300 FT DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY ANS THE INVERSION SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVERALL
AND HAD ACTUALLY BECOME NEUTRAL FOR A TIME THIS MORNING TO NV.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AT 9 AM PDT IN THE WIND-PRONE DESERT PASSES AND
SLOPES WERE UNDER 25 MPH.

GIVEN THE INFERRED DEPTH OF THE STRATUS DECK AND VERY STRONG
INVERSION...CLEARING MY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN...EVEN AT THE COAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE STRATUS SPREADS BACK INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEST OF THE MTS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...BUT STILL SEASONALLY HOT IN THE DESERTS.

CONVECTION PARAMETERS...

MOISTURE...BASED ON GPS SENSORS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THE PW
LEVEL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MTS
ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT OVER THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS WHERE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW 1K FT DEEP HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S F...SOME OF THIS HAS BLED INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS. (MODERATE)

STABILITY...BASED ON THE NKX SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN
12Z YESTERDAY WITH A MODIFIED MU CAPE OF 604 J/K VS. 247 YESTERDAY.
THE 12Z NAM12 BASED MODEL SOUNDINGS AT 21Z OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INDICATE MU CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/K WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6. EXPERIMENTAL NUCAPS (SATELLITE DERIVED
SOUNDING) OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AT 10Z SHOWS LOW VALUES OF
MODIFIED CAPE. (WEAK/MODERATE)

WINDS...WEAK WINDS BELOW 500 MBS SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOLAR INSOLATION...FULL SUN EXPECTED FOR HEATING (STRONG)

MODEL FORECAST PRECIP...THE LATEST 12Z WRFEMS HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM RUN...OTHERWISE
DRY. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 15Z HRRR SHOWS MODEST PRECIP
BULLS EYES AT MOUNTAIN TOP ALL ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTH INTO BAJA.

SO BASED ON THE ABOVE...THUNDER IS EXPECTED AND CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER DESERTS...AND MAYBE OVER
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER CAN BE DRAWN UP THE LOWER DESERT SLOPE TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. PARAMETERS LOOK
WEAKER ON MON...WITH LESS MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIP INDICATED BY THE LATEST WRF OR NAM.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES THE THEME OF BREAKING DOWN THE REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST
PACIFIC AND ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO LIFT THE CUT-OFF LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE BLOCK NE THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY FRI. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOCK OUT THE MONSOON OVER SOCAL...AND LOCK IN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS AND EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THIS WEEK. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC MODEL STRENGTHENS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW...WHILE THE GFS FAVORS MORE OF A
WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND TROUGHING. THIS IS MOSTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD...AND WHILE BOTH SUGGEST DRY WEATHER...THE EXTENT OF
MARINE INFLUENCE INLAND...AND RESULTANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.AVIATION... 051610Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR 17-19Z TO ABOUT 5 MILES FROM THE COAST...WITH BASES
1400-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL AND AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURED. LOCAL VIS 2-4 MI WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 19Z...AREAS
OF BKN STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 01Z AND COVER MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH SIMILAR
CLOUD BASES.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BASES MOSTLY
9000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FEW
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 051627
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
927 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AGAIN TODAY...
DECREASING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR SOME BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED WELL INLAND. THE MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2600 FT. THIS
WAS ABOUT 300 FT DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY ANS THE INVERSION SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVERALL
AND HAD ACTUALLY BECOME NEUTRAL FOR A TIME THIS MORNING TO NV.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AT 9 AM PDT IN THE WIND-PRONE DESERT PASSES AND
SLOPES WERE UNDER 25 MPH.

GIVEN THE INFERRED DEPTH OF THE STRATUS DECK AND VERY STRONG
INVERSION...CLEARING MY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN...EVEN AT THE COAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE STRATUS SPREADS BACK INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEST OF THE MTS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...BUT STILL SEASONALLY HOT IN THE DESERTS.

CONVECTION PARAMETERS...

MOISTURE...BASED ON GPS SENSORS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THE PW
LEVEL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MTS
ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT OVER THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS WHERE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW 1K FT DEEP HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S F...SOME OF THIS HAS BLED INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS. (MODERATE)

STABILITY...BASED ON THE NKX SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN
12Z YESTERDAY WITH A MODIFIED MU CAPE OF 604 J/K VS. 247 YESTERDAY.
THE 12Z NAM12 BASED MODEL SOUNDINGS AT 21Z OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INDICATE MU CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/K WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6. EXPERIMENTAL NUCAPS (SATELLITE DERIVED
SOUNDING) OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AT 10Z SHOWS LOW VALUES OF
MODIFIED CAPE. (WEAK/MODERATE)

WINDS...WEAK WINDS BELOW 500 MBS SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOLAR INSOLATION...FULL SUN EXPECTED FOR HEATING (STRONG)

MODEL FORECAST PRECIP...THE LATEST 12Z WRFEMS HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM RUN...OTHERWISE
DRY. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 15Z HRRR SHOWS MODEST PRECIP
BULLS EYES AT MOUNTAIN TOP ALL ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTH INTO BAJA.

SO BASED ON THE ABOVE...THUNDER IS EXPECTED AND CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER DESERTS...AND MAYBE OVER
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER CAN BE DRAWN UP THE LOWER DESERT SLOPE TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. PARAMETERS LOOK
WEAKER ON MON...WITH LESS MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIP INDICATED BY THE LATEST WRF OR NAM.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES THE THEME OF BREAKING DOWN THE REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST
PACIFIC AND ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO LIFT THE CUT-OFF LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE BLOCK NE THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY FRI. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOCK OUT THE MONSOON OVER SOCAL...AND LOCK IN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS AND EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THIS WEEK. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC MODEL STRENGTHENS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW...WHILE THE GFS FAVORS MORE OF A
WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND TROUGHING. THIS IS MOSTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD...AND WHILE BOTH SUGGEST DRY WEATHER...THE EXTENT OF
MARINE INFLUENCE INLAND...AND RESULTANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.AVIATION... 051610Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR 17-19Z TO ABOUT 5 MILES FROM THE COAST...WITH BASES
1400-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL AND AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURED. LOCAL VIS 2-4 MI WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 19Z...AREAS
OF BKN STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 01Z AND COVER MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH SIMILAR
CLOUD BASES.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BASES MOSTLY
9000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FEW
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL





000
FXUS66 KSGX 050955
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
255 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A FLOW
OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
MAINTAIN A MARINE LAYER DEEPER THAN TYPICAL FOR JULY WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH SLOW OR LIMITED AFTERNOON CLEARING
NEAR SOME BEACHES. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING
WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB...EXTENDS
WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE ABSENT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THROUGH
THE 06Z RUN LAST NIGHT...THOUGH LATER RUNS DID SHOW THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. THE 18Z AND 00Z HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD. THE 06Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SAME GENERAL AREA...JUST WITH MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. GIVEN THE LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER...THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES THAN THERE IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NEAR
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND MAINTAIN A DEEPER THAN
SEASONAL MARINE LAYER FOR JULY...NEAR 2500 TO 3000 FEET DEEP.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND
INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED LIMITED
OR SLOW AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR SOME BEACHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRING A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
050940Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2200 FT MSL CONTINUING TO SPREAD 25-30 SM INLAND THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF 3-5SM VIS IN BR WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE VALLEYS. SLOW CLEARING INLAND 17-19Z...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
LINGERING WITHIN 5-10 SM OF THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS
MOVING BACK INLAND AFTER 06/01Z AND SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. BASES AND TOPS WILL BE SIMILAR.

MTNS/DESERTS...WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A
FEW CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRIER LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS...
MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
AND THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 050955
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
255 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A FLOW
OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
MAINTAIN A MARINE LAYER DEEPER THAN TYPICAL FOR JULY WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH SLOW OR LIMITED AFTERNOON CLEARING
NEAR SOME BEACHES. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING
WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB...EXTENDS
WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE ABSENT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THROUGH
THE 06Z RUN LAST NIGHT...THOUGH LATER RUNS DID SHOW THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. THE 18Z AND 00Z HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD. THE 06Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SAME GENERAL AREA...JUST WITH MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. GIVEN THE LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER...THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES THAN THERE IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NEAR
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND MAINTAIN A DEEPER THAN
SEASONAL MARINE LAYER FOR JULY...NEAR 2500 TO 3000 FEET DEEP.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND
INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED LIMITED
OR SLOW AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR SOME BEACHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRING A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
050940Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2200 FT MSL CONTINUING TO SPREAD 25-30 SM INLAND THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF 3-5SM VIS IN BR WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE VALLEYS. SLOW CLEARING INLAND 17-19Z...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
LINGERING WITHIN 5-10 SM OF THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS
MOVING BACK INLAND AFTER 06/01Z AND SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. BASES AND TOPS WILL BE SIMILAR.

MTNS/DESERTS...WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A
FEW CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRIER LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS...
MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
AND THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 050955
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
255 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A FLOW
OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
MAINTAIN A MARINE LAYER DEEPER THAN TYPICAL FOR JULY WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH SLOW OR LIMITED AFTERNOON CLEARING
NEAR SOME BEACHES. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING
WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB...EXTENDS
WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE ABSENT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THROUGH
THE 06Z RUN LAST NIGHT...THOUGH LATER RUNS DID SHOW THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. THE 18Z AND 00Z HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD. THE 06Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SAME GENERAL AREA...JUST WITH MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. GIVEN THE LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER...THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES THAN THERE IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NEAR
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND MAINTAIN A DEEPER THAN
SEASONAL MARINE LAYER FOR JULY...NEAR 2500 TO 3000 FEET DEEP.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND
INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED LIMITED
OR SLOW AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR SOME BEACHES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRING A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
050940Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2200 FT MSL CONTINUING TO SPREAD 25-30 SM INLAND THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF 3-5SM VIS IN BR WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE VALLEYS. SLOW CLEARING INLAND 17-19Z...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
LINGERING WITHIN 5-10 SM OF THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS
MOVING BACK INLAND AFTER 06/01Z AND SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. BASES AND TOPS WILL BE SIMILAR.

MTNS/DESERTS...WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A
FEW CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRIER LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS...
MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
AND THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 050411 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE
VALLEYS...WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL MEAN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...AND SOME DRIZZLE NEAR
THE COAST...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION LASTED UNTIL AROUND SUNSET IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND DUE TO SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW...PERSISTED
INTO THE HIGH DESERTS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT
SLIGHTLY DEEPER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER U/L FORCING DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES AND
EMBEDDED VORTS OFFSHORE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
BELIEVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A LITTLE BETTER U/L SUPPORT. A LITTLE MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH MARINE LAYER WEATHER
DOMINATING CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...

050400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC010-015 SURGING 40 SM INLAND
THROUGH 16Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM BR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS INCLUDING KONT. CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH 21Z WITH BRIEF CLEARING AT KSAN BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. CIGS MAY
NOT CLEAR FROM KCRQ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 050411 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE
VALLEYS...WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL MEAN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...AND SOME DRIZZLE NEAR
THE COAST...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION LASTED UNTIL AROUND SUNSET IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND DUE TO SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW...PERSISTED
INTO THE HIGH DESERTS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT
SLIGHTLY DEEPER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER U/L FORCING DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES AND
EMBEDDED VORTS OFFSHORE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
BELIEVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A LITTLE BETTER U/L SUPPORT. A LITTLE MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH MARINE LAYER WEATHER
DOMINATING CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...

050400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC010-015 SURGING 40 SM INLAND
THROUGH 16Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM BR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS INCLUDING KONT. CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH 21Z WITH BRIEF CLEARING AT KSAN BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. CIGS MAY
NOT CLEAR FROM KCRQ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 050411 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE
VALLEYS...WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL MEAN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...AND SOME DRIZZLE NEAR
THE COAST...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION LASTED UNTIL AROUND SUNSET IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND DUE TO SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW...PERSISTED
INTO THE HIGH DESERTS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT
SLIGHTLY DEEPER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER U/L FORCING DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES AND
EMBEDDED VORTS OFFSHORE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
BELIEVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A LITTLE BETTER U/L SUPPORT. A LITTLE MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH MARINE LAYER WEATHER
DOMINATING CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...

050400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC010-015 SURGING 40 SM INLAND
THROUGH 16Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM BR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS INCLUDING KONT. CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH 21Z WITH BRIEF CLEARING AT KSAN BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. CIGS MAY
NOT CLEAR FROM KCRQ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 050411 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE
VALLEYS...WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS.
THIS WILL MEAN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...AND SOME DRIZZLE NEAR
THE COAST...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION LASTED UNTIL AROUND SUNSET IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND DUE TO SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW...PERSISTED
INTO THE HIGH DESERTS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT
SLIGHTLY DEEPER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER U/L FORCING DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES AND
EMBEDDED VORTS OFFSHORE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
BELIEVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A LITTLE BETTER U/L SUPPORT. A LITTLE MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH MARINE LAYER WEATHER
DOMINATING CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...

050400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC010-015 SURGING 40 SM INLAND
THROUGH 16Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM BR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS INCLUDING KONT. CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH 21Z WITH BRIEF CLEARING AT KSAN BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. CIGS MAY
NOT CLEAR FROM KCRQ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 042343 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
441 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS...
WHICH AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL
MEAN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...AND SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE
COAST...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.QUICK UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...BUT ARE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ATTM. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FOR THOSE AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.
ENJOY YOUR FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS!

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 128 PM PDT)...

MARINE CLOUDS WERE STILL EXTENSIVE AT MIDDAY OVER THE CA COASTAL
WATERS...BUT HAD BURNED OFF INLAND TO THE COASTAL STRIP. HIGH CLOUDS
COVERED PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN CA AND MUCH OF AZ. A FEW CUMULUS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE MTS OF SOCAL AS WELL. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE RUNNING 5-8 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
TREND. THE WINDIEST DESERT PASSES HAD GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT NOON PDT.
TEMPERATURES W OF THE MTS AT NOON PDT WERE RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8
DEGREES F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY NOON....BUT IT WAS STILL QUITE HOT IN
THE DESERTS.

A REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
CA...AZ...AND NV. THE EDGE OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD TAP SOME OF IT AND RESULT IN
ISOLATED MTN/DESERT SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR THE NOW...THE MODELS SUPPORT A
DRY SOLUTION...BUT WITH TCU OVER THE MTS MUCH OF THE DAY...INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THIS EVENING THERE.

ANY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SWEPT AWAY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN OVER THE
EASTPAC...AND THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WITH INCREASING...DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS SOLID ONSHORE FLOW DEEP INTO
THE INTERIOR FOR A DEEPER THAN AVERAGE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
WARMER WEATHER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THEN.

IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING SUNDAY...
WHICH COULD PUT IT CLOSE TO 3K FT DEEP. SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN NEAR
2500 FT. THIS WILL BRING NOCTURNAL CLOUDS/FOG DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT/MORNING...AND HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON
THE INVERSION STRENGTH...THIS COULD RESULT IN LIMITED CLEARING NEAR
THE BEACHES SOME DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION... 042000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2400 FT MSL...WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN 11 DEG C MARINE
LAYER INVERSION. STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE BKN/OVC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST...AND PUSH AROUND 40 SM INLAND
BY EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. VIS OF 2-
4 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SIMILAR CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 042343 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
441 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS...
WHICH AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL
MEAN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...AND SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE
COAST...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.QUICK UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...BUT ARE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ATTM. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FOR THOSE AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.
ENJOY YOUR FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS!

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 128 PM PDT)...

MARINE CLOUDS WERE STILL EXTENSIVE AT MIDDAY OVER THE CA COASTAL
WATERS...BUT HAD BURNED OFF INLAND TO THE COASTAL STRIP. HIGH CLOUDS
COVERED PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN CA AND MUCH OF AZ. A FEW CUMULUS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE MTS OF SOCAL AS WELL. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE RUNNING 5-8 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
TREND. THE WINDIEST DESERT PASSES HAD GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT NOON PDT.
TEMPERATURES W OF THE MTS AT NOON PDT WERE RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8
DEGREES F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY NOON....BUT IT WAS STILL QUITE HOT IN
THE DESERTS.

A REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
CA...AZ...AND NV. THE EDGE OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD TAP SOME OF IT AND RESULT IN
ISOLATED MTN/DESERT SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR THE NOW...THE MODELS SUPPORT A
DRY SOLUTION...BUT WITH TCU OVER THE MTS MUCH OF THE DAY...INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THIS EVENING THERE.

ANY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SWEPT AWAY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN OVER THE
EASTPAC...AND THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WITH INCREASING...DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS SOLID ONSHORE FLOW DEEP INTO
THE INTERIOR FOR A DEEPER THAN AVERAGE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
WARMER WEATHER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THEN.

IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING SUNDAY...
WHICH COULD PUT IT CLOSE TO 3K FT DEEP. SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN NEAR
2500 FT. THIS WILL BRING NOCTURNAL CLOUDS/FOG DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT/MORNING...AND HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON
THE INVERSION STRENGTH...THIS COULD RESULT IN LIMITED CLEARING NEAR
THE BEACHES SOME DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION... 042000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2400 FT MSL...WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN 11 DEG C MARINE
LAYER INVERSION. STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE BKN/OVC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST...AND PUSH AROUND 40 SM INLAND
BY EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. VIS OF 2-
4 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SIMILAR CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 042031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
128 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS...
WHICH AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL
MEAN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS WEEKEND...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM THE MARINE LAYER SOME DAYS...
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE CLOUDS WERE STILL EXTENSIVE AT MIDDAY OVER THE CA COASTAL
WATERS...BUT HAD BURNED OFF INLAND TO THE COASTAL STRIP. HIGH CLOUDS
COVERED PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN CA AND MUCH OF AZ. A FEW CUMULUS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE MTS OF SOCAL AS WELL. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE RUNNING 5-8 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
TREND. THE WINDIEST DESERT PASSES HAD GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT NOON PDT.
TEMPERATURES W OF THE MTS AT NOON PDT WERE RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8
DEGREES F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY NOON....BUT IT WAS STILL QUITE HOT IN
THE DESERTS.

A REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
CA...AZ...AND NV. THE EDGE OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD TAP SOME OF IT AND RESULT IN
ISOLATED MTN/DESERT SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR THE NOW...THE MODELS SUPPORT A
DRY SOLUTION...BUT WITH TCU OVER THE MTS MUCH OF THE DAY...INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THIS EVENING THERE.

ANY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SWEPT AWAY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN OVER THE
EASTPAC...AND THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WITH INCREASING...DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS SOLID ONSHORE FLOW DEEP INTO
THE INTERIOR FOR A DEEPER THAN AVERAGE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
WARMER WEATHER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THEN.

IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING SUNDAY...
WHICH COULD PUT IT CLOSE TO 3K FT DEEP. SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN NEAR
2500 FT. THIS WILL BRING NOCTURNAL CLOUDS/FOG DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT/MORNING...AND HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON
THE INVERSION STRENGTH...THIS COULD RESULT IN LIMITED CLEARING NEAR
THE BEACHES SOME DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION... 042000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2400 FT MSL...WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN 11 DEG C MARINE
LAYER INVERSION. STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE BKN/OVC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST...AND PUSH AROUND 40 SM INLAND
BY EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. VIS OF 2-
4 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SIMILAR CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 042031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
128 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS...
WHICH AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL
MEAN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS WEEKEND...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM THE MARINE LAYER SOME DAYS...
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE CLOUDS WERE STILL EXTENSIVE AT MIDDAY OVER THE CA COASTAL
WATERS...BUT HAD BURNED OFF INLAND TO THE COASTAL STRIP. HIGH CLOUDS
COVERED PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN CA AND MUCH OF AZ. A FEW CUMULUS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE MTS OF SOCAL AS WELL. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE RUNNING 5-8 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
TREND. THE WINDIEST DESERT PASSES HAD GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT NOON PDT.
TEMPERATURES W OF THE MTS AT NOON PDT WERE RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8
DEGREES F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY NOON....BUT IT WAS STILL QUITE HOT IN
THE DESERTS.

A REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
CA...AZ...AND NV. THE EDGE OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD TAP SOME OF IT AND RESULT IN
ISOLATED MTN/DESERT SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR THE NOW...THE MODELS SUPPORT A
DRY SOLUTION...BUT WITH TCU OVER THE MTS MUCH OF THE DAY...INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THIS EVENING THERE.

ANY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SWEPT AWAY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN OVER THE
EASTPAC...AND THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WITH INCREASING...DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS SOLID ONSHORE FLOW DEEP INTO
THE INTERIOR FOR A DEEPER THAN AVERAGE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
WARMER WEATHER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THEN.

IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING SUNDAY...
WHICH COULD PUT IT CLOSE TO 3K FT DEEP. SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN NEAR
2500 FT. THIS WILL BRING NOCTURNAL CLOUDS/FOG DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
EACH NIGHT/MORNING...AND HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON
THE INVERSION STRENGTH...THIS COULD RESULT IN LIMITED CLEARING NEAR
THE BEACHES SOME DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION... 042000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2400 FT MSL...WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN 11 DEG C MARINE
LAYER INVERSION. STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE BKN/OVC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST...AND PUSH AROUND 40 SM INLAND
BY EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. VIS OF 2-
4 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SIMILAR CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 041547
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
846 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS...
WHICH AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
WEEKEND...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM THE MARINE LAYER SOME DAYS...
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE CLOUDS WERE WELL ESTABLISHED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE CA
COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING WELL OUT TO SEA...AND COVERED MOST OF
ORANGE COUNTY...AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. HIGH
CLOUDS COVERED FAR EASTERN CA...AND SOME WERE SPIRALING AROUND AN
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOCAL COAST AS WELL. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A STRONG 10 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2270
FT MSL. THE PW HAD INCREASED TO 1.27 INCH...BUT INSTABILITY
MEASUREMENTS WERE MODEST. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 5-
7 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE TREND. THE
WINDIEST DESERT PASSES HAD GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AT 7 AM PDT.

A REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CA...AZ...AND NV. THE EDGE OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO
THAT WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD TAP SOME OF IT AND
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MTS/DESERTS. FOR NOW...THE
MODELS SUPPORT A DRY SOLUTION.

ANY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SWEPT AWAY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN OVER THE
EASTPAC...AND THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WITH INCREASING...DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS SOLID ONSHORE FLOW DEEP INTO
THE INTERIOR FOR A DEEPER THAN AVERAGE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER NEXT WEEK.

IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING SUNDAY...WHICH COULD PUT IT AROUND 3K FT DEEP. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
IT WILL REMAIN NEAR 2500 FT. THIS WILL BRING NOCTURNAL CLOUDS/FOG
DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT/MORNING AND HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW
AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON THE INVERSION STRENGTH...THIS COULD RESULT IN
LIMITED CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES SOME DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION... 041540Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1100-1800 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2800 FT MSL...WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TOWARDS
THE COAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN 11 DEG C MARINE LAYER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY. STRATUS WILL BECOMING MORE BKN/OVC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST...AND PUSH AROUND 40 SM INLAND BY EARLY SUN
MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE... 840 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 041547
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
846 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SOLID ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE SOME FINE SUMMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS...
WHICH AND MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
WEEKEND...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM THE MARINE LAYER SOME DAYS...
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE CLOUDS WERE WELL ESTABLISHED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE CA
COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING WELL OUT TO SEA...AND COVERED MOST OF
ORANGE COUNTY...AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. HIGH
CLOUDS COVERED FAR EASTERN CA...AND SOME WERE SPIRALING AROUND AN
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOCAL COAST AS WELL. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A STRONG 10 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2270
FT MSL. THE PW HAD INCREASED TO 1.27 INCH...BUT INSTABILITY
MEASUREMENTS WERE MODEST. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 5-
7 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE TREND. THE
WINDIEST DESERT PASSES HAD GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AT 7 AM PDT.

A REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CA...AZ...AND NV. THE EDGE OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO
THAT WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD TAP SOME OF IT AND
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MTS/DESERTS. FOR NOW...THE
MODELS SUPPORT A DRY SOLUTION.

ANY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SWEPT AWAY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN OVER THE
EASTPAC...AND THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WITH INCREASING...DRY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS SOLID ONSHORE FLOW DEEP INTO
THE INTERIOR FOR A DEEPER THAN AVERAGE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER NEXT WEEK.

IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING SUNDAY...WHICH COULD PUT IT AROUND 3K FT DEEP. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
IT WILL REMAIN NEAR 2500 FT. THIS WILL BRING NOCTURNAL CLOUDS/FOG
DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT/MORNING AND HOLD MAX TEMPS BELOW
AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON THE INVERSION STRENGTH...THIS COULD RESULT IN
LIMITED CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES SOME DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION... 041540Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1100-1800 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2800 FT MSL...WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TOWARDS
THE COAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN 11 DEG C MARINE LAYER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY. STRATUS WILL BECOMING MORE BKN/OVC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST...AND PUSH AROUND 40 SM INLAND BY EARLY SUN
MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE... 840 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 040957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
257 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST STATES. FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF GREATER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS
MAY BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL BRING DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEPER THAN TYPICAL
FOR EARLY JULY WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS WITH SLOW OR LIMITED
CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES SOME AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST STATES. FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF GREATER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS
MAY BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL BRING DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING TO AROUND
3000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAINING NEAR THAT DEPTH FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INTO THE
FAR INLAND VALLEYS THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED OR
SLOW CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES ON SOME AFTERNOONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
040925Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25SM INLAND THIS MORNING. AREAS OF 3-5SM VIS
IN BR POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
LOW CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH KONT AFTER 12Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STRATUS CLEARING INLAND 16-18Z AND NEAR THE COAST 18-20Z...WITH
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRATUS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK INLAND 05/00-03Z AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200-1800 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2200 FT MSL.
OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 040957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
257 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST STATES. FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF GREATER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS
MAY BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL BRING DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEPER THAN TYPICAL
FOR EARLY JULY WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS WITH SLOW OR LIMITED
CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES SOME AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST STATES. FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF GREATER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS
MAY BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL BRING DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING TO AROUND
3000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAINING NEAR THAT DEPTH FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INTO THE
FAR INLAND VALLEYS THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED OR
SLOW CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES ON SOME AFTERNOONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
040925Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25SM INLAND THIS MORNING. AREAS OF 3-5SM VIS
IN BR POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
LOW CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH KONT AFTER 12Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STRATUS CLEARING INLAND 16-18Z AND NEAR THE COAST 18-20Z...WITH
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRATUS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK INLAND 05/00-03Z AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200-1800 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2200 FT MSL.
OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 040957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
257 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST STATES. FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF GREATER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS
MAY BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL BRING DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEPER THAN TYPICAL
FOR EARLY JULY WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS WITH SLOW OR LIMITED
CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES SOME AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST STATES. FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF GREATER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS
MAY BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS. AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL BRING DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING TO AROUND
3000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAINING NEAR THAT DEPTH FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INTO THE
FAR INLAND VALLEYS THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED OR
SLOW CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES ON SOME AFTERNOONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
040925Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25SM INLAND THIS MORNING. AREAS OF 3-5SM VIS
IN BR POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
LOW CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH KONT AFTER 12Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STRATUS CLEARING INLAND 16-18Z AND NEAR THE COAST 18-20Z...WITH
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRATUS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK INLAND 05/00-03Z AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200-1800 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2200 FT MSL.
OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KT THROUGH
THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 040446
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BUT IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE ANY
SHOWERS. NEXT WEEK WILL TREND COOLER WITH A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL
FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL ENTRAIN DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW 800 MILES OFF THE COAST.
NORMALIZED PRECIPITABLE WATER AVERAGES AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. MUCH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.50" WILL BE JUST EAST
OF THE AREA OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A SLIGHT JOG TO
THE WEST OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD WOULD BOOST OUR PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
NEITHER THE CANSAC 2KM WRF NOR THE LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT
POSSIBILTIY AND GENERATE ZERO QPF OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 12Z GLOBAL ECMWF IS ALSO DRY. THE 00Z GFS40 IS THE OUTLIER THIS
EVENING WITH QPF OVER THE MTNS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT THE GFS40 HAS
BEEN OVERESTIMATING QPF LATELY AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. SO WITH ALL
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS POINT AND ONLY
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN TO
THE COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ON VIEWING THE FIREWORKS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 1000 FEET.

NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON AND BRING
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE UNSEASONABLY DEEP FOR JULY WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO
THE VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION... 040300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND SPREAD
20-25 MI INLAND TONIGHT WITH BASES 1100-1400 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2000
FT MSL. A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH KONT AFTER 12Z...THOUGH
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A CEILING THERE. AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IN SOME
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 04/08Z-15Z. CLEARING COULD BE QUITE SLOW OR EVEN
PARTIAL SATURDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS LIKELY
CLEARING AFTER 18Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...LOCAL SFC WINDS FROM THE WEST 15-25 KT GUSTS 35-40 KT
WILL OCCUR 22Z THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS. OTHERWISE BKN CLOUDS
AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...TS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 040446
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BUT IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE ANY
SHOWERS. NEXT WEEK WILL TREND COOLER WITH A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL
FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL ENTRAIN DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW 800 MILES OFF THE COAST.
NORMALIZED PRECIPITABLE WATER AVERAGES AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. MUCH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.50" WILL BE JUST EAST
OF THE AREA OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A SLIGHT JOG TO
THE WEST OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD WOULD BOOST OUR PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
NEITHER THE CANSAC 2KM WRF NOR THE LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT
POSSIBILTIY AND GENERATE ZERO QPF OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 12Z GLOBAL ECMWF IS ALSO DRY. THE 00Z GFS40 IS THE OUTLIER THIS
EVENING WITH QPF OVER THE MTNS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT THE GFS40 HAS
BEEN OVERESTIMATING QPF LATELY AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. SO WITH ALL
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS POINT AND ONLY
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN TO
THE COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ON VIEWING THE FIREWORKS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 1000 FEET.

NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON AND BRING
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE UNSEASONABLY DEEP FOR JULY WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO
THE VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION... 040300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND SPREAD
20-25 MI INLAND TONIGHT WITH BASES 1100-1400 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2000
FT MSL. A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH KONT AFTER 12Z...THOUGH
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A CEILING THERE. AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IN SOME
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 04/08Z-15Z. CLEARING COULD BE QUITE SLOW OR EVEN
PARTIAL SATURDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS LIKELY
CLEARING AFTER 18Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...LOCAL SFC WINDS FROM THE WEST 15-25 KT GUSTS 35-40 KT
WILL OCCUR 22Z THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS. OTHERWISE BKN CLOUDS
AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 040446
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BUT IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE ANY
SHOWERS. NEXT WEEK WILL TREND COOLER WITH A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL
FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL ENTRAIN DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW 800 MILES OFF THE COAST.
NORMALIZED PRECIPITABLE WATER AVERAGES AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. MUCH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.50" WILL BE JUST EAST
OF THE AREA OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A SLIGHT JOG TO
THE WEST OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD WOULD BOOST OUR PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
NEITHER THE CANSAC 2KM WRF NOR THE LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT
POSSIBILTIY AND GENERATE ZERO QPF OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 12Z GLOBAL ECMWF IS ALSO DRY. THE 00Z GFS40 IS THE OUTLIER THIS
EVENING WITH QPF OVER THE MTNS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT THE GFS40 HAS
BEEN OVERESTIMATING QPF LATELY AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. SO WITH ALL
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS POINT AND ONLY
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN TO
THE COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ON VIEWING THE FIREWORKS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 1000 FEET.

NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON AND BRING
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE UNSEASONABLY DEEP FOR JULY WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO
THE VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION... 040300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND SPREAD
20-25 MI INLAND TONIGHT WITH BASES 1100-1400 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2000
FT MSL. A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH KONT AFTER 12Z...THOUGH
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A CEILING THERE. AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IN SOME
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 04/08Z-15Z. CLEARING COULD BE QUITE SLOW OR EVEN
PARTIAL SATURDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS LIKELY
CLEARING AFTER 18Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...LOCAL SFC WINDS FROM THE WEST 15-25 KT GUSTS 35-40 KT
WILL OCCUR 22Z THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS. OTHERWISE BKN CLOUDS
AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...TS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 032048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LESS HUMID AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEASONAL WEATHER...A
MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS FLOW IN THE
MID-LEVELS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 03/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG-TERM.

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM NEVADA TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 500 MILES W OF SAN DIEGO. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED SCATTERED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLORFUL
SUNSET. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE SAN BERNARDINOS WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
AIR BEING TOO DRY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST PUSHES
TOWARDS THE BAY AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR FLOW FROM SOUTHERLY TO
DRY AND SOUTHWESTERLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MODERATELY DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND
VALLEYS...AFTERNOON BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES
AND IN THE DESERTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THIS JUNE-LIKE
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
VARYING ONLY SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO CLEAR FOR SOME BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
032045Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL SPREAD 20-25 MI
INLAND TONIGHT...LIKELY REACHING COASTAL AIRPORTS 03Z-05Z WITH BASES
1100-1400 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL. STRATUS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH KONT AFTER 12Z. AREAS OF TERRAIN ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL BE
OBSCURED...AND LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS 08Z-15Z SAT. CLEARING COULD BE QUITE SLOW OR EVEN PARTIAL
SATURDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS LIKELY CLEARING
AFTER 18Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...LOCAL SFC WINDS FROM THE WEST 15-25 KT GUSTS 35-40 KT
WILL OCCUR 22Z THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS. OTHERWISE BKN CLOUDS
AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 032048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LESS HUMID AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEASONAL WEATHER...A
MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS FLOW IN THE
MID-LEVELS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 03/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG-TERM.

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM NEVADA TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 500 MILES W OF SAN DIEGO. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED SCATTERED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLORFUL
SUNSET. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE SAN BERNARDINOS WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
AIR BEING TOO DRY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST PUSHES
TOWARDS THE BAY AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR FLOW FROM SOUTHERLY TO
DRY AND SOUTHWESTERLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND INCREASE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MODERATELY DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND
VALLEYS...AFTERNOON BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES
AND IN THE DESERTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THIS JUNE-LIKE
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
VARYING ONLY SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO CLEAR FOR SOME BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
032045Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL SPREAD 20-25 MI
INLAND TONIGHT...LIKELY REACHING COASTAL AIRPORTS 03Z-05Z WITH BASES
1100-1400 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL. STRATUS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH KONT AFTER 12Z. AREAS OF TERRAIN ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL BE
OBSCURED...AND LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS 08Z-15Z SAT. CLEARING COULD BE QUITE SLOW OR EVEN PARTIAL
SATURDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS LIKELY CLEARING
AFTER 18Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...LOCAL SFC WINDS FROM THE WEST 15-25 KT GUSTS 35-40 KT
WILL OCCUR 22Z THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
DESERT SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS. OTHERWISE BKN CLOUDS
AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL





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