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000
FXUS66 KSGX 242040
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
140 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS...ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE
LAYER RETURNING.  THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST...WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER
THE PACIFIC AND A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.  IN FACT...MOST AREAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO
7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING.  HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THOUGH...SO ALTHOUGH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MAY INITIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...THE
COASTAL MESAS AND WESTERN VALLEYS COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME DENSE FOG
BY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
SOME COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO NORMAL RANGES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAIN ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DESERTS.  THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS A COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...PUSHING WELL
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF THEY DO...THEY
WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED INLAND CANYONS AND PASSES.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.  FOR THIS REASON...THINK THAT THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  THAT
BEING SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY THOUGH...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE A BIT ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
242000Z...COAST...THROUGH 02Z...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT TIMES...02Z-06Z LOCAL CIGS
AOB 400 FT MSL AND VIS AOB 3SM IN BR/FG DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AFT 06Z THROUGH 12Z SAT. CIGS RISING TO 400-800 FT MSL
AND VIS 3-5SM BR 12Z THROUGH 18Z SAT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
CIG/VIS LEVELS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF 3-5SM AND LOCALLY BELOW 2SM VIS IN FG/BR 12Z/18Z SAT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXTENT OF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FG/BR. CIGS AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW 3SM NOT EXPECTED AT KONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
.800 AM...SURF WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY DUE TO A 13 SECOND 9 FT
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SURF OF 3-5
FT...WITH INFREQUENT SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AS A LONGER PERIOD
2 FT SOUTH SWELL MIXES WITH THE LARGE WEST SWELL. FAVORED AREAS FOR
LARGER SURF WILL BE SOUTH OF SOLANA BEACH AND EXPOSED BEACHES OF
ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TIDE RECEDES. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD








000
FXUS66 KSGX 241601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS...ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST...WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER THE
PACIFIC...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE THE
RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY NICE FALL DAY.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST.

ONSHORE FLOW...COOLER CONDITIONS...AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN
THIS WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE PARENT
TROUGH.  THIS PARENT TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA
ON LATE SATURDAY AND DEEPEN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  AS A
RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING TO WITHIN NORMAL RANGES ON SATURDAY AND
UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL
RETURN TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY COASTAL OR WESTERN VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER RAPIDLY
DEEPENING THOUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET.  THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF THEY DO...THEY
WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES.  THE
EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DIVERGING QUITE A BIT...BETWEEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OR KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE.  CURRENTLY THOUGH...MORE
SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE RIDGE THAN THE TROUGH...WHICH
LIKELY MEANS THAT THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
241509Z...COAST...THROUGH 02Z...SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...02Z-06Z LOCAL CIGS AOB 400 FT MSL AND VIS AOB 3SM IN
BR/FG DEVELOPING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFT 06Z THROUGH 12Z SAT.
CIGS RISING TO 400-800 FT MSL AND VIS 3-5SM BR 12Z THROUGH 18Z SAT.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIG/VIS LEVELS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF 3-5SM AND LOCAL BELOW 2SM VIS IN FG/BR 12Z/18Z SAT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXTENT OF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FG/BR.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...SURF WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY DUE TO A 13 SECOND 9 FT
WEST SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SURF OF 3-5 FT...WITH
INFREQUENT SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AS A LONGER PERIOD 2 FT SOUTH
SWELL MIXES WITH THE LARGE WEST SWELL. FAVORED AREAS FOR LARGER SURF
WILL BE SOUTH OF SOLANA BEACH AND EXPOSED BEACHES OF ORANGE COUNTY.
STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES
OF LARGE TIDAL SWINGS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD








000
FXUS66 KSGX 241054
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
354 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM WEATHER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY IT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE COAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AS WE GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONGER
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
DESERTS. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NEAR MOUNT BALDY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
OVERHEARD SUNDAY NIGHT.

MARINE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY A FEW
PATCHES OF VERY LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE LAYER WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH STRATUS DECKS
MAKING FURTHER PENETRATION EACH NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRES IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE STRATUS
RELEGATED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL ZONE. STRATUS WILL BE LESS AND
LESS LIKELY AS OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IN APPEARS TO BE A MINOR EVENT AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
240900Z...COAST...PATCHY VERY LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LOW
CIGS/VIS AT MOST COASTAL AIRPORTS...BUT LOCAL CIGS BELOW 400 FT MSL
AND VIS BELOW 1 MI COULD OCCUR VCNTY KNRS...KSAN...KCRQ AND KOKB
BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MOST VIS AT/ABOVE
5 MI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...PG









000
FXUS66 KSGX 241054
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
354 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM WEATHER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY IT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE COAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AS WE GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONGER
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
DESERTS. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NEAR MOUNT BALDY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
OVERHEARD SUNDAY NIGHT.

MARINE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY A FEW
PATCHES OF VERY LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE LAYER WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH STRATUS DECKS
MAKING FURTHER PENETRATION EACH NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRES IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE STRATUS
RELEGATED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL ZONE. STRATUS WILL BE LESS AND
LESS LIKELY AS OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IN APPEARS TO BE A MINOR EVENT AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
240900Z...COAST...PATCHY VERY LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LOW
CIGS/VIS AT MOST COASTAL AIRPORTS...BUT LOCAL CIGS BELOW 400 FT MSL
AND VIS BELOW 1 MI COULD OCCUR VCNTY KNRS...KSAN...KCRQ AND KOKB
BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MOST VIS AT/ABOVE
5 MI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...PG









000
FXUS66 KSGX 240418
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY
WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER
AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WELL OFF THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE WEAKLY ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...BUT CURRENTLY TRENDING
OFFSHORE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW
60S. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS EXPECT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY
BRIEFLY REACH THE BEACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE KEPT OFFSHORE BY DRAINAGE FLOW.

FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN AND COASTAL MESAS. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEINGS TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CA ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPREAD INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING AND GENERATE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...THE
INVERSION WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...SO LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT PATCHY. SOME CLEARLY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...WITH COLD
AIR CUMULUS FORMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH DEVELOPING NORTH
WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
THIS WILL BRING AND WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
240410Z...COAST...PATCHY VERY LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES
OF CIGS/LOW VIS ARE LOW AT MOST COASTAL AIRPORTS...BUT LOCAL CIGS
BELOW 400 FT MSL AND VIS BELOW 1 MI COULD OCCUR VCNTY
KNRS...KSAN...KCRQ AND KOKB BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z FRI.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MOST VIS AT/ABOVE 5 MI WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL







000
FXUS66 KSGX 232019
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
119 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REBUILD...SPREADING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG INLAND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE
ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH
COOLER AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SE
OVER THE REGION...AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY
NEAR SOME BEACHES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MBS
OFFSHORE FROM NV...AND 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. AT 1 PM
PDT...WIND/GUST REPORTS WERE UNDER 20 MPH.

FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RUNNING AROUND TEN DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
SOME VALLEYS. ANY MARINE INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON.

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP MAY CONDENSE
INTO PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EVENING...BUT COLD AIR DRAINAGE
DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD PUSH IT BACK OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. AS THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER AND TRENDS BACK ONSHORE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING...THE DRAINAGE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR
COASTAL AREAS...SO FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM THEN. BUT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FOG SINCE A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT
MAY BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT THAT TIME AND LIMIT RADIATIVE
COOLING AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL TURN COOLER ON SAT WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...AND MUCH COOLER ON SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SW THROUGH FRI...THEN
SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH MOVES EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BY OVER CA/NV ON
SUN MORNING...BUT CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
ROCKIES MON. THIS WILL KEEP SOCAL IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS REBOUND...THE DAYS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

NO BIG WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FOG
COULD BECOME DENSE ON SAT MORNING ALONG THE COAST FOR A TIME...AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE
PASSES INTO THE DESERTS LATER SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER
40 MPH POSSIBLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST...WHILE THE
00Z GFS/GEM RUNS SHOWED A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER SOCAL. A QUICK LOOK AT
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION NOW LOOKS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS.
HOPEFULLY SOLUTIONS WILL CONVERGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MILD
TO WARM WEATHER FOR LATE OCTOBER AS WELL AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
231930Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
1230 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...TS













000
FXUS66 KSGX 231519
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
819 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REBUILD...SPREADING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG INLAND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE
ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH
COOLER AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SE
OVER THE REGION...AND AREAS OF FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A SFC BASED INVERSION AND WEAK WINDS FROM THE
SFC THROUGH 15K FT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MBS
OFFSHORE FROM NV...AND 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. AT 8 AM
PDT...OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF REMOTE SPOTS...WINDS/GUST REPORTS WERE
UNDER 15 MPH.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WARM AND DRY DAYS SHAPING UP ACROSS SOCAL
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. ANY MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY
CONDENSE INTO PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT COLD AIR DRAINAGE DURING THE
NIGHT SHOULD PUSH IT BACK OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER AND TRENDS BACK ONSHORE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...THE DRAINAGE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR COASTAL AREAS
SO FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM THEN. OTHERWISE...COOLER ON SAT AND MUCH
COOLER ON SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SW THROUGH FRI...THEN
SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH MOVES EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BY OVER CA/NV ON
SUN MORNING...BUT CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
ROCKIES MON. THIS WILL KEEP SOCAL IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS REBOUND...THE DAYS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE GFS RUNS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE...
WHILE THE 00Z GFS/GEM RUNS SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER SOCAL. THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
231500Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...TS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 230958
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LIMITED TO THE COAST...BUT POSSIBLY DENSE. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WERE OBSERVED ON MESAS OF NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME DRAINAGE WIND HAS PUSHED THE
FOG OUT TO SEA FOR THE TIME BEING. A PATCH OR TWO OF DENSE FOG IS
STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. AND THAT WILL BE TRUE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM WEATHER WILL RULE THE DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
GETS ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE TROUGH WHICH DRAWS UP A
PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT A FEW MODELS CONSIDER ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY. NOT READY TO BUY OFF
ON THAT SOLUTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS RATHER STABLE AT THAT
TIME...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY APPEAR OVER THE INTERIOR. AND
SOME WILL BE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE RIDGES. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER RIDGES AS WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN WILL BE FILLED
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL FEEL LIKE FALL. THE TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY MONDAY
AND HIGHER PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NO BIG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...BUT A MODEST WARMUP IS LIKELY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE LESS DEEP FOR LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN
TIME AND SPACE. AFTER TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO MODELS DIVERGE INTO
POLAR OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS PRODUCES A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE THE EURO SLOWLY DROPS A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS
RUN IS AN OUTLIER...EVEN DIFFERING FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE
CREDENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN AND
ENSEMBLES AGREE. IF THIS SYSTEM ALL COMES TOGETHER AS IT LOOKS
NOW...SOME RAIN COULD ARRIVE BY TRICK OR TREATING TIME. BUT THAT IS
A LONG SHOT AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
230900Z...PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AT ALL COASTAL
AIRPORTS IS LOW...BUT BKN CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT KSAN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 15Z TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...BROTHERTON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 230958
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LIMITED TO THE COAST...BUT POSSIBLY DENSE. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WERE OBSERVED ON MESAS OF NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME DRAINAGE WIND HAS PUSHED THE
FOG OUT TO SEA FOR THE TIME BEING. A PATCH OR TWO OF DENSE FOG IS
STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. AND THAT WILL BE TRUE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM WEATHER WILL RULE THE DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
GETS ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE TROUGH WHICH DRAWS UP A
PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT A FEW MODELS CONSIDER ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY. NOT READY TO BUY OFF
ON THAT SOLUTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS RATHER STABLE AT THAT
TIME...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY APPEAR OVER THE INTERIOR. AND
SOME WILL BE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE RIDGES. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER RIDGES AS WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN WILL BE FILLED
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL FEEL LIKE FALL. THE TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY MONDAY
AND HIGHER PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NO BIG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...BUT A MODEST WARMUP IS LIKELY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE LESS DEEP FOR LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN
TIME AND SPACE. AFTER TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO MODELS DIVERGE INTO
POLAR OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS PRODUCES A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE THE EURO SLOWLY DROPS A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS
RUN IS AN OUTLIER...EVEN DIFFERING FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE
CREDENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN AND
ENSEMBLES AGREE. IF THIS SYSTEM ALL COMES TOGETHER AS IT LOOKS
NOW...SOME RAIN COULD ARRIVE BY TRICK OR TREATING TIME. BUT THAT IS
A LONG SHOT AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
230900Z...PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AT ALL COASTAL
AIRPORTS IS LOW...BUT BKN CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT KSAN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 15Z TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...BROTHERTON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 230351
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND LIMITED TO THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE
LAYER. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MINOR WARMING AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 5H RIDGE AXIS BUBBLED UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
BROUGHT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING. COASTAL AND VALLEY HIGHS
WERE 4-7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE MTN AND DESERT TEMPS
WERE UNCHANGED. THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 800 FEET DEEP ON THE 00Z
NKX SOUNDING. LOW CLOUDS WERE ABSENT THIS EVENING...BUT
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE SMALL AT THE COAST WHERE PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.

THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE OF TWO WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO A WARMER DAY THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED
ACCORDINGLY. ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER NEW MEXICO BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OVER SO-CAL DO NOT CHANGE MUCH. SO
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AS WARM AS THURSDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS WE CAN EXPECT THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BY
5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAYS HIGHS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DECLINE OF 3-6 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY. A RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIMITED CLEARING OF STRATUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ALSO
LIKELY SUNDAY. FOR THE DESERTS...THE LARGEST TEMPERATURE SWING WILL
BE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD BE MORE DEPENDENT ON HEIGHT FALLS THAT ARE MORE PRONOUNCED BY
SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE HAVE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ANA AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE TWO WAVES MAKES NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST TRICKY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONSENSUS APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE RUNS TO SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
230400Z...COAST...PATCHY LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THU WITHIN 5 MI OF THE COAST...MAINLY 09Z-15Z.
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AT ALL COASTAL AIRPORTS IS LOW...BUT BKN
CEILINGS BELOW 600 FT MSL ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AT KSAN. VIS
COULD BE LESS THAN 3 MI NEAR THE COAST...AND LOCALLY LESS THAN 1 MI
MAINLY OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN 09Z-15Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT KSAN COULD HAVE VIS BELOW 2 MI THEN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AFTER 15Z THU...CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SURF FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MOST SURF BELOW 5 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC SHORT RANGE...MOEDE
PUBLIC LONG RANGE...BA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KSGX 230351
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND LIMITED TO THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE
LAYER. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MINOR WARMING AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 5H RIDGE AXIS BUBBLED UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
BROUGHT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING. COASTAL AND VALLEY HIGHS
WERE 4-7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE MTN AND DESERT TEMPS
WERE UNCHANGED. THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 800 FEET DEEP ON THE 00Z
NKX SOUNDING. LOW CLOUDS WERE ABSENT THIS EVENING...BUT
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE SMALL AT THE COAST WHERE PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.

THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE OF TWO WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO A WARMER DAY THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED
ACCORDINGLY. ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER NEW MEXICO BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OVER SO-CAL DO NOT CHANGE MUCH. SO
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AS WARM AS THURSDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS WE CAN EXPECT THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BY
5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAYS HIGHS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DECLINE OF 3-6 DEGREES LIKELY ON SUNDAY. A RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIMITED CLEARING OF STRATUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ALSO
LIKELY SUNDAY. FOR THE DESERTS...THE LARGEST TEMPERATURE SWING WILL
BE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD BE MORE DEPENDENT ON HEIGHT FALLS THAT ARE MORE PRONOUNCED BY
SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE HAVE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ANA AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE TWO WAVES MAKES NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST TRICKY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONSENSUS APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE RUNS TO SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
230400Z...COAST...PATCHY LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THU WITHIN 5 MI OF THE COAST...MAINLY 09Z-15Z.
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AT ALL COASTAL AIRPORTS IS LOW...BUT BKN
CEILINGS BELOW 600 FT MSL ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AT KSAN. VIS
COULD BE LESS THAN 3 MI NEAR THE COAST...AND LOCALLY LESS THAN 1 MI
MAINLY OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN 09Z-15Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT KSAN COULD HAVE VIS BELOW 2 MI THEN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AFTER 15Z THU...CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SURF FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MOST SURF BELOW 5 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC SHORT RANGE...MOEDE
PUBLIC LONG RANGE...BA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KSGX 222002
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
102 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING AND
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ACCORDING
TO LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
LACK OF STRATUS THIS MORNING...IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN ANOTHER 4 DM COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE
LAYER FURTHER...WITH VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...OR
MAYBE NONE AT ALL...ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...FRIDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS RISING TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ANY NIGHT
AND MORNING MARINE LAYER APPEARANCE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY AND IN THE FORM OF FOG...AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW.

COOLING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. ON
SATURDAY...DAY-TIME HIGHS LOOK TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN AND THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME WARMING
DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR
NORMAL AND THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING SHALLOWER AGAIN. THERES THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THAT IS STILL 9 TO 10 DAYS OUT...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON
THAT OCCURRING YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
222000Z...EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AFTER 06Z. WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 500-800 FEET
MSL AND VIS 3-5 SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY LOW ON LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND ANY LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...GRADUALLY FADING THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 221524
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING
AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AND PATCHIER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A
MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 1100 FEET WITH 24 HOUR WARMING
FROM 950 MB THROUGH THE REST OF THE PROFILE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP IN
ORANGE COUNTY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING FOG. THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER IS AS RESULT OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS IS LIKELY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL COASTAL WATER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS...AS THE SAN
DIEGO TO TONOPAH GRADIENT IS 5.9 MB OFFSHORE CURRENTLY...WHEREAS IT
WAS 0.1 MB ONSHORE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN ANOTHER 4 DM COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE
LAYER FURTHER...WITH VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...OR
MAYBE NONE AT ALL...ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS RISING TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THURSDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
APPEARANCE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND IN THE FORM OF
FOG...AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW.

COOLING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. ON
SATURDAY...DAY-TIME HIGHS LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN AND
THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME WARMING
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL AND THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING SHALLOWER
AGAIN. THE FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THE
GFS SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INLAND INTO UTAH/COLORADO AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WORK-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
221530Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM ORANGE
COUNTY THIS MORNING. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW
ON LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 220949
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
249 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MAKING A SHALLOWER APPEARANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORNING STRATUS RELEGATED TO
THE COASTAL STRIP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN
RELATION TO THE FLAT HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...THEN PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AZ/NM AROUND 592 DM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP ACROSS ALL AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING A
WIDESPREAD DRAMATIC COOL DOWN TO OUR REGION...AS A RESULT OF A
MASSIVE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE CLOSEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF SAN
DIEGO...TEMPERATURES WILL SWAY FROM NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTLY...MID
NEXT WEEK IS HINTING AT A DEVELOPING INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM THAT
COULD GENERATE AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AROUND THURSDAY. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
220930Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE
AROUND 1000 FEET MSL. AREAS VIS 3-5SM ON COASTAL MESAS. FULL SCATTER
OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16Z. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 220949
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
249 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MAKING A SHALLOWER APPEARANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORNING STRATUS RELEGATED TO
THE COASTAL STRIP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN
RELATION TO THE FLAT HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...THEN PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AZ/NM AROUND 592 DM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP ACROSS ALL AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING A
WIDESPREAD DRAMATIC COOL DOWN TO OUR REGION...AS A RESULT OF A
MASSIVE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE CLOSEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF SAN
DIEGO...TEMPERATURES WILL SWAY FROM NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTLY...MID
NEXT WEEK IS HINTING AT A DEVELOPING INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM THAT
COULD GENERATE AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AROUND THURSDAY. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
220930Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE
AROUND 1000 FEET MSL. AREAS VIS 3-5SM ON COASTAL MESAS. FULL SCATTER
OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16Z. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 220436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING SHOWED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT 1500 FEET...ABOUT 1000
FEET LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL STAY SHALLOW THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE ABSENCE OF THIS COOLER
MARINE AIRMASS WILL BRING WARMING TO INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS FROM
85-90. THE HIGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE
MARINE LAYER FROM THE COASTAL ZONES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE SHARPLY TO
START THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST BRINGS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN MODERATE-HIGH AGREEMENT...WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERING BY ONLY 2-4 DM. DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE
A RESULT OF HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A SMALLER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SIMILAR LOW-MODERATE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS REPRESENTED IN EACH MODELS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DECLINE 5-10 DEGREES SATURDAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECLINE OF 3-5 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. THE INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO REACH THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER BENIGN WITH
NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS. MODELS SPREAD INCREASES RAPIDLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF "ANA" INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 10
MILES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 06Z...THEN BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT
MSL...DECREASING TO 800 FT MSL...POSSIBLY LESS...AFTER 11Z WED. TOPS
WILL BE TO 1200 FT MSL. ORANGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE PATCHY
STRATUS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 2-4 MI
WILL OCCUR MOSTLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z IN COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 2 MI. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BETWEEN
14-16Z WED...WITH LESS STRATUS WED NIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY HAS HAD SEAS OF 10 FEET SO FAR THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO
DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE 5-7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL BE MODERATELY LONG...15
SECONDS TONIGHT...SHORTENING TO 13 SECONDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEST FACING
BEACHES WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE VERSUS TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE SURF WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET WITH A FEW SETS TO 7 FEET. SURF
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/BA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 220436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING SHOWED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT 1500 FEET...ABOUT 1000
FEET LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL STAY SHALLOW THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE ABSENCE OF THIS COOLER
MARINE AIRMASS WILL BRING WARMING TO INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS FROM
85-90. THE HIGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE
MARINE LAYER FROM THE COASTAL ZONES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE SHARPLY TO
START THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST BRINGS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN MODERATE-HIGH AGREEMENT...WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERING BY ONLY 2-4 DM. DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE
A RESULT OF HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A SMALLER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SIMILAR LOW-MODERATE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS REPRESENTED IN EACH MODELS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DECLINE 5-10 DEGREES SATURDAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECLINE OF 3-5 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. THE INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO REACH THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER BENIGN WITH
NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS. MODELS SPREAD INCREASES RAPIDLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF "ANA" INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 10
MILES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 06Z...THEN BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT
MSL...DECREASING TO 800 FT MSL...POSSIBLY LESS...AFTER 11Z WED. TOPS
WILL BE TO 1200 FT MSL. ORANGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE PATCHY
STRATUS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 2-4 MI
WILL OCCUR MOSTLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z IN COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 2 MI. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BETWEEN
14-16Z WED...WITH LESS STRATUS WED NIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY HAS HAD SEAS OF 10 FEET SO FAR THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO
DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE 5-7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL BE MODERATELY LONG...15
SECONDS TONIGHT...SHORTENING TO 13 SECONDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEST FACING
BEACHES WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE VERSUS TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE SURF WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET WITH A FEW SETS TO 7 FEET. SURF
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/BA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL













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