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000
FXUS66 KSGX 012119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
119 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN COVERING
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE-HALF INCH OR MORE HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OVER
SAN DIEGO AND SW RIVERSIDE COUNTY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AMOUNTS
WERE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW TWO THIRDS OF
ORANGE COUNTY WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH NOON.

SOME LIMITED ENHANCEMENT CONTINUED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WAS DECREASING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REMAINED IMPRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS WELL
OFFSHORE AND FORCES A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOCAL WHICH
CONTINUES TO DRIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ISOLATED ENHANCED CELLS WERE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NW OF POINT CONCEPTION.

HEAVY SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS
REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MON.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AND REMAIN OF
MODERATE INTENSITY. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE MTS BUT
MAY BECOME MORE SHOWERY. UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER APPROACHES
THE COAST.

AS THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ONSHORE TONIGHT/MON...THE RAIN MAY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED...AND THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL INCREASE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE THROUGH MON AS THE PRECIP BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY...BUT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0NE-HALF
TO LOCALLY ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA ON TUE.

THE TRAILING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS SO POPS
WILL REMAIN SMALL AND FAVORED TOWARD THE COAST FOR TUE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON
FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 012100Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...EAST WINDS
CURRENTLY IMPACTING KSAN...KONT...AND...KCRQ WILL LINGER THOUGH 01-
03Z. LIGHTER WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM 03-10Z...WITH A PUSH OF WESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVING AFTER 10Z. THROUGH 22Z MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCES OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS LOW. MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW BASES TO BOUNCE AROUND AT THE TAF SITES WITH BKN-OVC
BASES BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY...BASES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 1500 FT MSL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE 25000 TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 1-2 SM MAY OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN AND
2-5 SM WITHIN AREAS OF RAIN...OTHERWISE P6SM WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 22Z
MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

DESERTS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE DESERTS...WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND
DESERTS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 04Z MONDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE
IN THE 5000-9000 FT MSL RANGE WITH PREDOMINANTLY P6SM...THOUGH VIS
MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 5SM IN AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...100 AM...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PRODUCE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. SEE LAXMWSSGX FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. &&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 012119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
119 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN COVERING
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE-HALF INCH OR MORE HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OVER
SAN DIEGO AND SW RIVERSIDE COUNTY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AMOUNTS
WERE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW TWO THIRDS OF
ORANGE COUNTY WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH NOON.

SOME LIMITED ENHANCEMENT CONTINUED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WAS DECREASING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REMAINED IMPRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS WELL
OFFSHORE AND FORCES A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOCAL WHICH
CONTINUES TO DRIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ISOLATED ENHANCED CELLS WERE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NW OF POINT CONCEPTION.

HEAVY SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS
REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MON.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AND REMAIN OF
MODERATE INTENSITY. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE MTS BUT
MAY BECOME MORE SHOWERY. UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER APPROACHES
THE COAST.

AS THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ONSHORE TONIGHT/MON...THE RAIN MAY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED...AND THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL INCREASE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE THROUGH MON AS THE PRECIP BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY...BUT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0NE-HALF
TO LOCALLY ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA ON TUE.

THE TRAILING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS SO POPS
WILL REMAIN SMALL AND FAVORED TOWARD THE COAST FOR TUE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON
FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 012100Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...EAST WINDS
CURRENTLY IMPACTING KSAN...KONT...AND...KCRQ WILL LINGER THOUGH 01-
03Z. LIGHTER WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM 03-10Z...WITH A PUSH OF WESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVING AFTER 10Z. THROUGH 22Z MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCES OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS LOW. MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW BASES TO BOUNCE AROUND AT THE TAF SITES WITH BKN-OVC
BASES BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY...BASES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 1500 FT MSL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE 25000 TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 1-2 SM MAY OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN AND
2-5 SM WITHIN AREAS OF RAIN...OTHERWISE P6SM WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 22Z
MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

DESERTS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE DESERTS...WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND
DESERTS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 04Z MONDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE
IN THE 5000-9000 FT MSL RANGE WITH PREDOMINANTLY P6SM...THOUGH VIS
MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 5SM IN AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...100 AM...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PRODUCE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. SEE LAXMWSSGX FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. &&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 011643
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
843 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN DRY
AND WARMER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERING MUCH OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED ONE-HALF TO
ONE INCH...FARTHER TO THE NORTH...LITTLE PRECIP WAS INDICATED. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS ENHANCED OVER THE AREA OF RAIN...WITH A TREND
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS AT 8 AM PST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POSSIBLE VORT MAX ABOUT 100 MILES SW OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET FEEDING THE
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT MODEL THE PRECIP WE ARE
SEEING THIS MORNING WELL. FARTHER OFFSHORE...ISOLATED ENHANCED CELLS
WERE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...CURRENTLY CENTERED
JUST NW OF POINT CONCEPTION.

THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING INDICATED PW HAD RISEN TO 0.83 INCH. WEAK
SE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE VEERED WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASED TO OVER
25 KT ABOVE 6K FT. THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 6400 FT...BUT BASED
ON SURFACE OBS IN THE MTNS...FREEZING CONDITIONS WERE CLOSER TO 5500
FT. KNKX CC SHOWS CLOSER TO 5000 FT TO THE NORTH.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LOCAL HIRES MODELS...THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN OF MODERATE INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS NE INTO THE MTS. BASED ON
A SNOW LEVEL OF 5K-5.5K FT...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...BUT REMAIN SCATTERED UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER
APPROACHES THE COAST.

LITTLE ACTIVITY APPEARS DESTINED FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH THE HIRES LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP THERE AS WELL LATER TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MTS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR TODAY ANYWAY...
THIS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MTS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE SUSTAINED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

AS THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ONSHORE SUN NIGHT/MON...THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND SMALL HAIL.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST
COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WELL OFFSHORE...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 011600Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. DUE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS...CLOUD
BASES WILL BOUNCE AROUND WITH BKN-OVC BASES BETWEEN 2000 AND 6500 FT
MSL. LOCAL BASES TO 1000 FT MSL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOWERS. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE 25000 TO 30000 FT MSL. VIS RESTRICTIONS
OF 1-4 SM WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN AND WITHIN AREAS
OF RAIN...OTHERWISE P6SM WILL PREVAIL.

DESERTS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE DESERTS...WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND
DESERTS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE
IN THE 6000-9000 FT MSL RANGE WITH PREDOMINANTLY P6SM...THOUGH VIS
MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 5SM IN AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...800 AM...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE THE OUTER WATERS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PRODUCE PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-
TO-WATER LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 011643
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
843 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN DRY
AND WARMER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERING MUCH OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED ONE-HALF TO
ONE INCH...FARTHER TO THE NORTH...LITTLE PRECIP WAS INDICATED. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS ENHANCED OVER THE AREA OF RAIN...WITH A TREND
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS AT 8 AM PST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POSSIBLE VORT MAX ABOUT 100 MILES SW OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET FEEDING THE
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT MODEL THE PRECIP WE ARE
SEEING THIS MORNING WELL. FARTHER OFFSHORE...ISOLATED ENHANCED CELLS
WERE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...CURRENTLY CENTERED
JUST NW OF POINT CONCEPTION.

THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING INDICATED PW HAD RISEN TO 0.83 INCH. WEAK
SE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE VEERED WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASED TO OVER
25 KT ABOVE 6K FT. THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 6400 FT...BUT BASED
ON SURFACE OBS IN THE MTNS...FREEZING CONDITIONS WERE CLOSER TO 5500
FT. KNKX CC SHOWS CLOSER TO 5000 FT TO THE NORTH.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LOCAL HIRES MODELS...THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN OF MODERATE INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS NE INTO THE MTS. BASED ON
A SNOW LEVEL OF 5K-5.5K FT...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...BUT REMAIN SCATTERED UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER
APPROACHES THE COAST.

LITTLE ACTIVITY APPEARS DESTINED FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH THE HIRES LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP THERE AS WELL LATER TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MTS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR TODAY ANYWAY...
THIS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MTS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE SUSTAINED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

AS THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ONSHORE SUN NIGHT/MON...THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND SMALL HAIL.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST
COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WELL OFFSHORE...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 011600Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. DUE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS...CLOUD
BASES WILL BOUNCE AROUND WITH BKN-OVC BASES BETWEEN 2000 AND 6500 FT
MSL. LOCAL BASES TO 1000 FT MSL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOWERS. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE 25000 TO 30000 FT MSL. VIS RESTRICTIONS
OF 1-4 SM WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN AND WITHIN AREAS
OF RAIN...OTHERWISE P6SM WILL PREVAIL.

DESERTS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE DESERTS...WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND
DESERTS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE
IN THE 6000-9000 FT MSL RANGE WITH PREDOMINANTLY P6SM...THOUGH VIS
MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 5SM IN AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...800 AM...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE THE OUTER WATERS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PRODUCE PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-
TO-WATER LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011254
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...BUT SHOWERY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 011000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY. OCCASIONAL CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VIS 1-3SM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL VIS 3-5SM UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...200 AM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011254
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...BUT SHOWERY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 011000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY. OCCASIONAL CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VIS 1-3SM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL VIS 3-5SM UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...200 AM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB





000
FXUS66 KSGX 011254
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...BUT SHOWERY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 011000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY. OCCASIONAL CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VIS 1-3SM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL VIS 3-5SM UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...200 AM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB





000
FXUS66 KSGX 011254
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...BUT SHOWERY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 011000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY. OCCASIONAL CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VIS 1-3SM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL VIS 3-5SM UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...200 AM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FILLING THE RADAR BEAM THIS EVENING BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SO FAR. TOTALS RANGE FROM A
A LOW OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TO A
HIGH OF A HALF-INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

SNOW WAS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET. 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY
PAST PT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SO-CAL TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SUNDAY...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOCAL. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPIATION SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN
THE TRAILING 500 MB COLD POOL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TAKEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS VORT MAX FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY. THIS
WESTERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER-WATER AND
ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STALLED
CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010414Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND  WEST OF THE MTNS. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL
CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL AND VIS 3SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 010527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FILLING THE RADAR BEAM THIS EVENING BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SO FAR. TOTALS RANGE FROM A
A LOW OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TO A
HIGH OF A HALF-INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

SNOW WAS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET. 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY
PAST PT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SO-CAL TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SUNDAY...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOCAL. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPIATION SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN
THE TRAILING 500 MB COLD POOL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TAKEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS VORT MAX FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY. THIS
WESTERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER-WATER AND
ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STALLED
CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010414Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND  WEST OF THE MTNS. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL
CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL AND VIS 3SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FILLING THE RADAR BEAM THIS EVENING BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SO FAR. TOTALS RANGE FROM A
A LOW OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TO A
HIGH OF A HALF-INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

SNOW WAS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET. 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY
PAST PT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SO-CAL TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SUNDAY...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOCAL. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPIATION SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN
THE TRAILING 500 MB COLD POOL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TAKEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS VORT MAX FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY. THIS
WESTERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER-WATER AND
ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STALLED
CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010414Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND  WEST OF THE MTNS. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL
CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL AND VIS 3SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FILLING THE RADAR BEAM THIS EVENING BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SO FAR. TOTALS RANGE FROM A
A LOW OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TO A
HIGH OF A HALF-INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

SNOW WAS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET. 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY
PAST PT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SO-CAL TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SUNDAY...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOCAL. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPIATION SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN
THE TRAILING 500 MB COLD POOL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TAKEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS VORT MAX FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY. THIS
WESTERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER-WATER AND
ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STALLED
CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010414Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND  WEST OF THE MTNS. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL
CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL AND VIS 3SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 282134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ZONE FORECAST UPDATED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS TODAY
AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWED PATCHY CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL OUT
TO SEA...MOVING INLAND. CLOUDS WERE THICKEST OVER THE MTS WITH WAVE
CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
DROPPING OFF A BIT...BUT GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING AT A
FEW WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WAVE CLOUDS FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERTS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS SURFACING
LOCALLY OUT OVER THE DESERT FLOOR.

THROUGH 1:30 PM PST...RADAR HAD A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. THEY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT A FEW HAD
SMALL MODERATE CORES. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE
MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CHOICE SPOTS ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES WHERE 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD...
SW-NE ORIENTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD POINT
CONCEPTION. MOUNTAIN SLOPE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SCATTERED...MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST...READY TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUE THE
SHOWER/TSTM THREAT INTO TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
AFTER TUE AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CA BRINGING A
RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

WIND...A WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE OVER THE MTS/DESERTS BY 4 PM.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS...MAINLY
THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MTN SLOPES UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP...SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN EMPHASIS OVER
THE COASTAL SLOPES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS 5500 TO
6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DROP TONIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUN AS
COLDER AIR AND BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST ORGANIZED LIFT MAY WAIT UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS SWING INLAND. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP COULD FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE EMPHASIS FOR CONSISTENTLY HEAVIER PRECIP
AMOUNTS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS AND TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
TIME.

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS A CHANCE TO GET MORE
RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CLIPS THAT REGION AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST 12 MODEL RUNS. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES DIMINISH AND CONVECTION DOMINATES
THE PRECIP PROCESS.

ALL THE LATEST MODELS NOW KEEP THE SECOND AMPLIFYING WAVE AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP OFFSHORE TUE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FALLING TO 4800 TO 5200 FT. THE WARNING MAY BE PREMATURE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
SNOW AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET LATER SUN THROUGH MON. LATEST CIPS
ANALOGS FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STILL FAVOR 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER MTS BY LATE TUE. NO PLANS TO ALTER THE WARNING...BUT AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN CLIPPED FROM VALUES PUBLISHED IN EARLIER GRIDS.


&&

.AVIATION... 282230Z...A MIX OF SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES
BETWEEN 2500-6000 FT MSL WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY...WITH BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS
1500 FT MSL IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER 10Z SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THE
DESERTS SLOPES THROUGH 06Z. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.
MODERATE UDDFS/LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...130 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD SWELL AT 4-6 FT AND 7-9 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 282134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ZONE FORECAST UPDATED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS TODAY
AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWED PATCHY CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL OUT
TO SEA...MOVING INLAND. CLOUDS WERE THICKEST OVER THE MTS WITH WAVE
CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
DROPPING OFF A BIT...BUT GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING AT A
FEW WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WAVE CLOUDS FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERTS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS SURFACING
LOCALLY OUT OVER THE DESERT FLOOR.

THROUGH 1:30 PM PST...RADAR HAD A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. THEY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT A FEW HAD
SMALL MODERATE CORES. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE
MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CHOICE SPOTS ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES WHERE 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD...
SW-NE ORIENTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD POINT
CONCEPTION. MOUNTAIN SLOPE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SCATTERED...MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST...READY TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUE THE
SHOWER/TSTM THREAT INTO TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
AFTER TUE AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CA BRINGING A
RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

WIND...A WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE OVER THE MTS/DESERTS BY 4 PM.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS...MAINLY
THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MTN SLOPES UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP...SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN EMPHASIS OVER
THE COASTAL SLOPES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS 5500 TO
6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DROP TONIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUN AS
COLDER AIR AND BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST ORGANIZED LIFT MAY WAIT UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS SWING INLAND. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP COULD FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE EMPHASIS FOR CONSISTENTLY HEAVIER PRECIP
AMOUNTS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS AND TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
TIME.

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS A CHANCE TO GET MORE
RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CLIPS THAT REGION AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST 12 MODEL RUNS. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES DIMINISH AND CONVECTION DOMINATES
THE PRECIP PROCESS.

ALL THE LATEST MODELS NOW KEEP THE SECOND AMPLIFYING WAVE AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP OFFSHORE TUE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FALLING TO 4800 TO 5200 FT. THE WARNING MAY BE PREMATURE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
SNOW AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET LATER SUN THROUGH MON. LATEST CIPS
ANALOGS FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STILL FAVOR 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER MTS BY LATE TUE. NO PLANS TO ALTER THE WARNING...BUT AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN CLIPPED FROM VALUES PUBLISHED IN EARLIER GRIDS.


&&

.AVIATION... 282230Z...A MIX OF SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES
BETWEEN 2500-6000 FT MSL WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY...WITH BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS
1500 FT MSL IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER 10Z SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THE
DESERTS SLOPES THROUGH 06Z. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.
MODERATE UDDFS/LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...130 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD SWELL AT 4-6 FT AND 7-9 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281645
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
844 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ZONE FORECAST UPDATED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS TODAY
AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH WERE CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A 1500 FT SATURATED LAYER
TOPPED BY A WEAK INVERSION NEAR 5700 FT. WESTERLY WINDS EXCEEDED 40
KT ABOVE 9K FT. PW WAS 0.75 INCH.

THROUGH 8:30 AM PST...RADAR HAD A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS
WERE MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. AMOUNTS WERE GREATEST ON THE
COASTAL SLOPES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD...
POSITIVELY TILTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM AROUND BOISE TO
MORRO BAY DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD POINT CONCEPTION. MOUNTAIN SLOPE WINDS
WILL DECREASE BY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SCATTERED...MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE.

LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND POSSIBLY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AFTER TUE AS THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CA BRINGING A RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND
FAIR...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WIND...A WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE OVER THE NORTHERN DESERTS BY NOON
TODAY...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTS/DESERTS BY 4 PM. GUSTS OF
45 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS...MAINLY THROUGH THE
SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MTN SLOPES UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP...SCATTERED...LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH AN EMPHASIS OVER THE
COASTAL SLOPES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 5500
FT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROP TONIGHT
TO AROUND 5000 FEET. AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATE IS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT OR ON SUN AS COLDER AIR AND BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ORGANIZED LIFT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...WHICH MAY CLIP THE TIJUANA RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE EMPHASIS FOR CONSISTENTLY HEAVIER PRECIP
AMOUNTS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS AND TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
TIME.

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS A CHANCE TO GET MORE
RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CLIPS THAT REGION AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS AND WRFEMS RUNS.

SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FALLING TO 4800 TO 5200 FT. THE WARNING MAY BE PREMATURE WITH THE
LATEST HIRES MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
SNOW AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET MAY BE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. LATEST
CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STILL FAVOR 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER MTS BY LATE TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...281600Z...A MIX OF SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS BETWEEN 1500-
6000 FT WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY...WITH
BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 1000 FT MSL IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 08Z
SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THE DESERTS SLOPES THROUGH 00Z.
MODERATE UDDFS/LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...800 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 12-18 KT WITH GUSTS 18-25 KT
AND STEEP SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10
KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT PERIOD SWELL AT 4-6 FT AND 7-9 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR FORECAST
DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 281244
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...DECREASING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY WITH A SECOND
FASTER LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE COAST. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
DESERTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.

AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THIS FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL FROM THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THROUGH TUESDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. IN THE DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET TODAY...AND TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

281000Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 01/0600Z...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL VIS
RESTRICTION 1-3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 800 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IN THE DESERTS...CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH
ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES
OVER THE WATERS.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS.
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281244
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...DECREASING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY WITH A SECOND
FASTER LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE COAST. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
DESERTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.

AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THIS FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL FROM THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THROUGH TUESDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. IN THE DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET TODAY...AND TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

281000Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 01/0600Z...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL VIS
RESTRICTION 1-3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 800 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IN THE DESERTS...CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH
ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES
OVER THE WATERS.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS.
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB





000
FXUS66 KSGX 281244
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...DECREASING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY WITH A SECOND
FASTER LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE COAST. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
DESERTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.

AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THIS FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL FROM THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THROUGH TUESDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. IN THE DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET TODAY...AND TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

281000Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 01/0600Z...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL VIS
RESTRICTION 1-3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 800 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IN THE DESERTS...CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH
ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES
OVER THE WATERS.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS.
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB





000
FXUS66 KSGX 281244
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...DECREASING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY WITH A SECOND
FASTER LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE COAST. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
DESERTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.

AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THIS FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL FROM THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THROUGH TUESDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. IN THE DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET TODAY...AND TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

281000Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 01/0600Z...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL VIS
RESTRICTION 1-3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 800 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IN THE DESERTS...CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH
ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES
OVER THE WATERS.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS.
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 280521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE-SCALE 500 MB TROUGH ENVELOPES NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEEKND AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST STALLS OFF THE SO-CAL COAST. THE INSIDE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM DRY AT THE ONSET...BUT AS THE TRACK
CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS IT WILL CAPTURE
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SO-CAL THAN TO NOR-CAL.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER PT
CONCEPTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SO-CAL. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO
MINUS 27C WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS. THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ONLY SEE 0.05 TO
0.25 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET SUNDAY...AND THEN TO 4000 FEET MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES FROM 5000-7000 FEET...AND
FROM 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
DRY...WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

280430Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS...BECOMING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS 3 SM OR LESS AND CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT MSL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE DESERTS...CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SAT EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

835 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SAT.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES THROUGH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 280521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE-SCALE 500 MB TROUGH ENVELOPES NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEEKND AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST STALLS OFF THE SO-CAL COAST. THE INSIDE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM DRY AT THE ONSET...BUT AS THE TRACK
CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS IT WILL CAPTURE
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SO-CAL THAN TO NOR-CAL.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER PT
CONCEPTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SO-CAL. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO
MINUS 27C WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS. THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ONLY SEE 0.05 TO
0.25 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET SUNDAY...AND THEN TO 4000 FEET MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES FROM 5000-7000 FEET...AND
FROM 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
DRY...WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

280430Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS...BECOMING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS 3 SM OR LESS AND CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT MSL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE DESERTS...CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SAT EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

835 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SAT.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES THROUGH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 280521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE-SCALE 500 MB TROUGH ENVELOPES NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEEKND AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST STALLS OFF THE SO-CAL COAST. THE INSIDE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM DRY AT THE ONSET...BUT AS THE TRACK
CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS IT WILL CAPTURE
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SO-CAL THAN TO NOR-CAL.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER PT
CONCEPTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SO-CAL. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO
MINUS 27C WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS. THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ONLY SEE 0.05 TO
0.25 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET SUNDAY...AND THEN TO 4000 FEET MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES FROM 5000-7000 FEET...AND
FROM 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
DRY...WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

280430Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS...BECOMING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS 3 SM OR LESS AND CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT MSL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE DESERTS...CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SAT EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

835 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SAT.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES THROUGH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 280521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE-SCALE 500 MB TROUGH ENVELOPES NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEEKND AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST STALLS OFF THE SO-CAL COAST. THE INSIDE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM DRY AT THE ONSET...BUT AS THE TRACK
CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS IT WILL CAPTURE
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SO-CAL THAN TO NOR-CAL.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER PT
CONCEPTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SO-CAL. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO
MINUS 27C WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS. THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ONLY SEE 0.05 TO
0.25 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET SUNDAY...AND THEN TO 4000 FEET MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES FROM 5000-7000 FEET...AND
FROM 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
DRY...WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

280430Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS...BECOMING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS 3 SM OR LESS AND CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT MSL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE DESERTS...CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SAT EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

835 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SAT.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES THROUGH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 272147
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AS AS A WINTER
STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS SOME
COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER WATER.
IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET SOME
SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE ARE
DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.50 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 4 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.60 INCH

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO AS
LOW AS 4000 FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE PEAKS. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON
MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY GRADUALLY MOVING THE STORM OUT ON TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS
ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER STORM WARNING LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON
WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

272045Z...BKN-OVC CLOUDS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES...WITH BASES 2500-3000 FT MSL...TOPS 3000-4000 FT MSL
AND MTN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS THROUGH 2300 UTC. 2300-28/1500
UTC...STRATUS THICKENING OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS...WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS RISING TO 5000-6000
FT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 28/0300 UTC...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 28/0900
UTC...PRODUCING LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
OCCUR DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

W WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES
AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS...RESULTING IN STG-SVR
UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEFER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 272147
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AS AS A WINTER
STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS SOME
COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER WATER.
IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET SOME
SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE ARE
DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.50 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 4 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.60 INCH

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO AS
LOW AS 4000 FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE PEAKS. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON
MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY GRADUALLY MOVING THE STORM OUT ON TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS
ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER STORM WARNING LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON
WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

272045Z...BKN-OVC CLOUDS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES...WITH BASES 2500-3000 FT MSL...TOPS 3000-4000 FT MSL
AND MTN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS THROUGH 2300 UTC. 2300-28/1500
UTC...STRATUS THICKENING OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS...WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS RISING TO 5000-6000
FT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 28/0300 UTC...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 28/0900
UTC...PRODUCING LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
OCCUR DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

W WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES
AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS...RESULTING IN STG-SVR
UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEFER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 272147
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AS AS A WINTER
STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS SOME
COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER WATER.
IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET SOME
SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE ARE
DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.50 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 4 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.60 INCH

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO AS
LOW AS 4000 FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE PEAKS. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON
MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY GRADUALLY MOVING THE STORM OUT ON TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS
ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER STORM WARNING LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON
WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

272045Z...BKN-OVC CLOUDS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES...WITH BASES 2500-3000 FT MSL...TOPS 3000-4000 FT MSL
AND MTN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS THROUGH 2300 UTC. 2300-28/1500
UTC...STRATUS THICKENING OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS...WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS RISING TO 5000-6000
FT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 28/0300 UTC...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 28/0900
UTC...PRODUCING LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
OCCUR DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

W WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES
AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS...RESULTING IN STG-SVR
UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEFER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON





000
FXUS66 KSGX 272147
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AS AS A WINTER
STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS SOME
COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER WATER.
IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET SOME
SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE ARE
DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.50 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 4 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.60 INCH

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO AS
LOW AS 4000 FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE PEAKS. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON
MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY GRADUALLY MOVING THE STORM OUT ON TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS
ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER STORM WARNING LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON
WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

272045Z...BKN-OVC CLOUDS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES...WITH BASES 2500-3000 FT MSL...TOPS 3000-4000 FT MSL
AND MTN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS THROUGH 2300 UTC. 2300-28/1500
UTC...STRATUS THICKENING OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS...WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS RISING TO 5000-6000
FT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 28/0300 UTC...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 28/0900
UTC...PRODUCING LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
OCCUR DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

W WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES
AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS...RESULTING IN STG-SVR
UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEFER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON





000
FXUS66 KSGX 271627
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES RESULTED THIS MORNING FROM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER. SOME CLOUDS WILL STAY WITH US ALL DAY TODAY AS A
WINTER STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS
SOME COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER
WATER. IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET
SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE
ARE DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.65 INCH.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO 4000
FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12 INCHES. THE
COLD AIR WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY
BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE
SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES MOVE THE TROUGH OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND END THE PRECIP
THEN. THE EURO MODEL HANGS ON TO THE TROUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER
STORM WATCH LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY
LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

271616Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES...WITH BASES 2500-3000 FT MSL...TOPS 3000-4000 FT MSL
AND MTN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS...WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH
2300 UTC. 2300-28/1500 UTC...STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVER THE
COAST...VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS
5000-6000 FT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 28/0300 UTC...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
28/0900 UTC...PRODUCING LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER 2100 UTC...W WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING 20-35 KT WITH
GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT
AREAS...RESULTING IN STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

816 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEFER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
     TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
     SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271627
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES RESULTED THIS MORNING FROM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER. SOME CLOUDS WILL STAY WITH US ALL DAY TODAY AS A
WINTER STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS
SOME COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER
WATER. IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET
SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE
ARE DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.65 INCH.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO 4000
FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12 INCHES. THE
COLD AIR WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY
BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE
SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES MOVE THE TROUGH OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND END THE PRECIP
THEN. THE EURO MODEL HANGS ON TO THE TROUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER
STORM WATCH LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY
LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

271616Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES...WITH BASES 2500-3000 FT MSL...TOPS 3000-4000 FT MSL
AND MTN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS...WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH
2300 UTC. 2300-28/1500 UTC...STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVER THE
COAST...VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS
5000-6000 FT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 28/0300 UTC...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
28/0900 UTC...PRODUCING LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER 2100 UTC...W WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING 20-35 KT WITH
GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT
AREAS...RESULTING IN STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

816 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEFER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
     TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
     SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON





000
FXUS66 KSGX 271627
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES RESULTED THIS MORNING FROM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER. SOME CLOUDS WILL STAY WITH US ALL DAY TODAY AS A
WINTER STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS
SOME COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER
WATER. IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET
SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE
ARE DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.65 INCH.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO 4000
FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12 INCHES. THE
COLD AIR WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY
BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE
SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES MOVE THE TROUGH OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND END THE PRECIP
THEN. THE EURO MODEL HANGS ON TO THE TROUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER
STORM WATCH LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY
LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

271616Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES...WITH BASES 2500-3000 FT MSL...TOPS 3000-4000 FT MSL
AND MTN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS...WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH
2300 UTC. 2300-28/1500 UTC...STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVER THE
COAST...VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS
5000-6000 FT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 28/0300 UTC...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
28/0900 UTC...PRODUCING LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER 2100 UTC...W WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING 20-35 KT WITH
GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT
AREAS...RESULTING IN STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

816 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEFER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
     TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
     SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271627
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES RESULTED THIS MORNING FROM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER. SOME CLOUDS WILL STAY WITH US ALL DAY TODAY AS A
WINTER STORM DROPS DOWN THE COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTAINS
SOME COLD CONTINENTAL AIR ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS OVER
WATER. IT IS NOT THE WETTEST SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN...BUT WE WILL GET
SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO DECENT PRECIP TOTALS BEFORE WE
ARE DONE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
REALLY ANY CLEAR FRONTAL BANDS OR BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD MAKE
FOR STEADY HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WAVE OR BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS:
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH
MOUNTAINS: 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
DESERTS: UP TO 0.65 INCH.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO 4000
FEET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL BE 4 TO 12 INCHES. THE
COLD AIR WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE SO THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
THEN THE CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES MONDAY. OF COURSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY
BETWEEN THE TSTORM HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. ON MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ZIPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO BASICALLY PROLONG THE
SHOWERS AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS LOW AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES MOVE THE TROUGH OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND END THE PRECIP
THEN. THE EURO MODEL HANGS ON TO THE TROUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY BY MIDWEEK FAIR...DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER. FOR DETAILS ON SNOW...SEE OUR WINTER
STORM WATCH LAXWSWSGX. FOR DETAILS ON WIND...SEE OUR WIND ADVISORY
LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

271616Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES...WITH BASES 2500-3000 FT MSL...TOPS 3000-4000 FT MSL
AND MTN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS...WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH
2300 UTC. 2300-28/1500 UTC...STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVER THE
COAST...VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS
5000-6000 FT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 28/0300 UTC...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
28/0900 UTC...PRODUCING LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 SM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER 2100 UTC...W WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING 20-35 KT WITH
GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT
AREAS...RESULTING IN STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

816 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEFER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
     TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
     SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON





000
FXUS66 KSGX 271134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
334 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUST WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE AROUND 7000 FEET...BUT LOWER TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET
FOR LATE SATURDAY AND AROUND 4500 FEET FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (NONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
NEAR THE COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...271000Z...STRATUS WITHIN 50 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES
AROUND 1500-2000 FT MSL...TOPS AROUND 2500-3000 FT MSL...AND AREAS 3-
5 SM VIS IN BR. PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED 27/1500-
2000Z. 28/0000Z LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AGAIN AND CONTINUE AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH VCSH BETWEEN 28/0000-1800Z. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER 28/1800Z. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 28/0600Z...THICKENING LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-5000 FT MSL WITH VCSH. SFC WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER 28/0000Z
WITH WEST WINDS 30-40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT MAINLY THROUGH
AND BELOW WEST TO EAST ORIENTED CANYONS...PASSES AND MOUNTAINTOPS.

&&

.MARINE... 2 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THUS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND
WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
     TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
     SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB





000
FXUS66 KSGX 271134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
334 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUST WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE AROUND 7000 FEET...BUT LOWER TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET
FOR LATE SATURDAY AND AROUND 4500 FEET FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (NONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
NEAR THE COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...271000Z...STRATUS WITHIN 50 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES
AROUND 1500-2000 FT MSL...TOPS AROUND 2500-3000 FT MSL...AND AREAS 3-
5 SM VIS IN BR. PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED 27/1500-
2000Z. 28/0000Z LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AGAIN AND CONTINUE AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH VCSH BETWEEN 28/0000-1800Z. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER 28/1800Z. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 28/0600Z...THICKENING LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-5000 FT MSL WITH VCSH. SFC WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER 28/0000Z
WITH WEST WINDS 30-40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT MAINLY THROUGH
AND BELOW WEST TO EAST ORIENTED CANYONS...PASSES AND MOUNTAINTOPS.

&&

.MARINE... 2 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-PERIOD SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO 6-9
FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THUS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND
WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT
     TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING
     SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 270521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD
STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FEW MORE
SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OFF OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST WITH PATCHES OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...HELPING TO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AND DEEPEN...WITH THE CENTER ARRIVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA BY
LATE SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OVER SW CA...WITH
GREATEST CHANCES FOR AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 7000 FT FRIDAY EVENING...DROP TO AROUND
5500 FT SATURDAY MORNING...AND BOTTOM OUT AT NEAR 4000 FT SUNDAY
MORNING. 500 MB TEMPS OF -24 TO -26 DEG C WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD
GENERATE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SYSTEM AS WELL...WITH
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS...AND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FRI AFTN - MON MORNING...
DESERTS.....0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
COAST.......0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
VALLEYS.....0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...1.50 TO 2.75 INCHES

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FRI AFTN - MON MORNING...
4000 TO 5000 FT...1 TO 4 INCHES
5000 TO 6000 FT...4 TO 10 INCHES
6000 TO 7000 FT...6 TO 12 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FT.....10 TO 16 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 18 INCHES

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM AND CONTINUE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP...MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW
LEVELS LOW...AROUND 4500 FT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH...AS
WELL. THE 18Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT NOW...MOVING
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS STILL FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
270400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAIL. 27/0500-1500 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING WITHIN 25-50 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES AROUND 1200-1800
FT MSL...TOPS 2200-2500 FT MSL...AREAS OF 3-5 SM VIS...AND LOCAL VIS
AOB 1SM POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS. THESE LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SLOW
AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED 27/1500-2000 UTC.
280000Z LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DEVELOP AND CONTINUE AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM...WEATHER IMPACTS FEW THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE
LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-
PERIOD SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO 6-9 FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND
WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&& &&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 270521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD
STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FEW MORE
SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OFF OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST WITH PATCHES OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...HELPING TO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AND DEEPEN...WITH THE CENTER ARRIVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA BY
LATE SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OVER SW CA...WITH
GREATEST CHANCES FOR AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 7000 FT FRIDAY EVENING...DROP TO AROUND
5500 FT SATURDAY MORNING...AND BOTTOM OUT AT NEAR 4000 FT SUNDAY
MORNING. 500 MB TEMPS OF -24 TO -26 DEG C WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD
GENERATE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SYSTEM AS WELL...WITH
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS...AND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FRI AFTN - MON MORNING...
DESERTS.....0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
COAST.......0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
VALLEYS.....0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...1.50 TO 2.75 INCHES

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FRI AFTN - MON MORNING...
4000 TO 5000 FT...1 TO 4 INCHES
5000 TO 6000 FT...4 TO 10 INCHES
6000 TO 7000 FT...6 TO 12 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FT.....10 TO 16 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 18 INCHES

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM AND CONTINUE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP...MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW
LEVELS LOW...AROUND 4500 FT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH...AS
WELL. THE 18Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT NOW...MOVING
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS STILL FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
270400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAIL. 27/0500-1500 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING WITHIN 25-50 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES AROUND 1200-1800
FT MSL...TOPS 2200-2500 FT MSL...AREAS OF 3-5 SM VIS...AND LOCAL VIS
AOB 1SM POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS. THESE LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SLOW
AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED 27/1500-2000 UTC.
280000Z LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DEVELOP AND CONTINUE AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM...WEATHER IMPACTS FEW THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE
LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...WITH SHORT-
PERIOD SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO 6-9 FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND
WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&& &&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE





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