000
FXUS66 KSGX 191053
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
355 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER FOR MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST BRINGING
COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLOW WARMING FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA WILL BRING WARMING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. PATCHY STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND EMPIRE THIS MORNING. A SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS
TO REACH THE WESTERN VALLEYS. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING LOCALLY GUST WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE NORTHERN
COACHELLA VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST BRINGING COOLING...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLOW WARMING FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...
190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES 1400-2000 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 2700 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND AROUND 20 SM INLAND THIS MORNING. VIS AOB 1 SM WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS MEETS HIGHER TERRAIN. STRATUS WILL CLEAR
TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 17 UTC THIS MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST BTWN 04-09 UTC TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TOPS AND BASES.
MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SKC THROUGH MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CREATING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
000
FXUS66 KSGX 190403
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS...HELPING TO PUSH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER BY WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THE MARINE LAYER AND
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE THROUGH FRIDAY...
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
OTHER THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 4-8 MBS ONSHORE WITH 25-30 MPH AND LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE WINDIER MOUNTAIN AND DESERT SPOTS. THE
00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A WEAK INVERSION BASED NEAR 3K FT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTPAC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL CONTINUE A DRY...NW FLOW OVER CA THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER SOCAL...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DECREASES...
LIMITING NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS
AREAS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SLIDING SE IN THAT FLOW TOWARD NW AZ BY
MON MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD SFC PRESSURE OVER NV AND FORCE AN
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
TURN BACK ONSHORE LATER IN THE DAY AND REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. SEASONALLY
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP WED THROUGH FRI THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS EACH EVENING. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE
MON AND TUE...WITH A COOLING TREND BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE WILL SURFACE ON MON MORNING WHEN IT APPEARS SOME
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS. AT
THE SAME TIME...DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING AND TEMPS RISING SHARPLY.
THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF WILDFIRE. LATER IN THE DAY...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN BACK ONSHORE...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE
WARM AND DRY FAR INLAND INTO TUE. THE LOCAL WRFEMS INDICATES THE
OFFSHORE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT OVER COASTAL AREAS WITH THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINING INTACT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERAL TROUGHING SHOULD HOLD OVER
THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE MARINE LAYER AND TEMPS
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
190330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1200-1500 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 1800 FT MSL ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING KSAN AND
KCRQ WITH BKN-OVC CIGS 1000-1200 FT MSL AFT 05Z...AND IMPACTING KSNA
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 1200 FT MSL AFT 07Z. BY 12Z...LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD REACH 10-15 MILES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO
REACH KONT...ALTHOUGH VIS MAY LOWER TO 3-5SM BY 12Z. EXPECT CLEARING
TO THE COAST BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SKC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. W TO
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVR THE MTNS AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHLAND ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS...THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS APPEAR TO REMAIN AROUND 30 MPH AT THIS TIME...SOME
OF THE FAVORED WINDY SPOTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE CANYONS AND PASSES
MAY SEE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE DURATION OF THESE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY TO ELEVATE THE
WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO...ORANGE...AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
FIRE WX...PALMER
000
FXUS66 KSGX 182010
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
110 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED SPOTS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...AND
DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TO DEVELOP...THE MARINE
LAYER TO DEEPEN...AND THE ONSHORE TO INCREASE...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CALIFORNIA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE PREDOMINATELY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SIMILAR TO OR UP TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME STUBBORN LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND UP INTO ORANGE COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH THESE LOW CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...A
FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. A WEAK EDDY WILL REFORM LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER BACK INLAND TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...MONDAY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
20S. THIS MEANS THAT INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL
LINGER ALONG THE COAST...HELPING MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THESE
AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN ANY
SUNSHINE ON THESE DAYS...AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...A DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING A PERIOD OF WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS A BIT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AT 850 MBS AND WITHIN THE 30 AGL LEVEL. FOR THIS
REASON...THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30
MPH...AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE FAVORED WINDY SPOTS THROUGH AND BELOW
THE PASSES AND CANYONS MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH...AND
POTENTIALLY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY TYPE WINDS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME MINOR
COOLING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO START ON
TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THOUGH...AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL ALSO DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY EVEN DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY REAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...
182001Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW-SCT CLDS 2500-3500 FT MSL WILL LINGER
THROUGH 19/0500 UTC. 19/0500-0900 UTC...BKN-OVC STRATUS MOVING
INLAND 10-15 SM...WITH BASES 900-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1800-2000 FT
MSL. STRATUS LIKELY NOT REACHING KONT...ALTHOUGH VIS MAY LOWER TO
5SM BY 19/1200 UTC. CLEARING OF STRATUS 19/1500-1800 UTC.
MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SKC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. W TO
NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT ALONG AND E OF MTN RIDGE-TOPS WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MOD-STG UDDFS.
&&
.MARINE...
A 3 FT/17-18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHLAND ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS...THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS APPEAR TO REMAIN AROUND 30 MPH AT THIS TIME...SOME
OF THE FAVORED WINDY SPOTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE CANYONS AND PASSES
MAY SEE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE DURATION OF THESE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY TO ELEVATE THE
WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO...ORANGE...AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON
000
FXUS66 KSGX 181633
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS WELL AS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
IN THE FAVORED SPOTS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST
COAST FOR THE REMAINDER FOR THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND AND DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CALIFORNIA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AS A TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...A
GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHLAND
STARTING TODAY. HOWEVER...AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE STILL
DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE BACK
FILLING TOWARDS THE COAST THANKS TO THE EDDY CIRCULATION. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN
SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z KNKX SHOWS UP TO 5 DEGREES OF
COOLING THIS MORNING NEAR 850 MBS...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
DECENT WARM UP AT 850 MBS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THINK
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TO A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH
INLAND AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WITH ALSO
BRIEFLY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS A
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED SPOTS ALONG THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND TO START ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...EVEN THOUGH
INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH...AS THIS
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN
DURING THIS TIME...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT. IT MAY EVEN DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
181526Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH VARIABLE BASES
1500-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 3500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH 1800 UTC...WITH FEW-SCT CLDS 2500-3000 FT MSL
LINGERING AFTER 1800 UTC. 19/0200-0900 UTC...BKN-OVC STRATUS MOVING
INLAND 10-15 SM...WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL.
STRATUS LIKELY NOT REACHING KONT. CLEARING OF STRATUS 19/1500-1800
UTC.
MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SKC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. W TO
NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT ALONG AND E OF MTN RIDGE-TOPS WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MOD-STG UDDFS.
&&
.MARINE...
A 3 FT/17-18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON
000
FXUS66 KSGX 181110
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
410 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL MOVE
INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO MONDAY WITH A DECREASING MARINE LAYER
DEPTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY
MORNING. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST BRINGING COOLING...A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A SECOND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING AN INLAND WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY. FOR COASTAL AREAS...A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DECREASE IN DEPTH
THROUGH MONDAY EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES EARLY THIS
MORNING...INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS ON SUNDAY MORNING...
AND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
AND LOWERING MARINE INVERSION COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUING WEAK
COASTAL EDDY...CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES WILL BE SLOWER AND MORE
LIMITED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST
BRINGING A COOLING TREND FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
180930Z...STRATUS...WITH BASES 1500-3000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3800 FT
MSL...HAS DEVELOPED INLAND TO THE WESTERN MTN SLOPES THIS MORNING.
REVERSE CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY RESIDE OVER THE LAND AND ARE SPARSE OVER THE WATER. STRATUS
COULD OBSCURE LOWER MTN RIDGES. VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTN...WITH STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES.
WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MDT UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND AND SOUTH OF SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. COMBINED SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT ARE ALSO FORECAST IN
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
000
FXUS66 KSGX 180442
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEAVING A DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING
DRYING AND WARMING...ALONG WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NEVADA ARE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE FALLING OFF THIS
EVENING...THEY WERE STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN A
FEW AREAS. THE STRONGEST WERE IN THE WIND FARMS ALONG THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING AIRMASS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND
WILL SPREAD ACROSS VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER IS NOT QUITE
AS DEEP TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL DEEP ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS TO
BANK UP AGAINST THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK INVERSION WILL PROMOTE RAPID MIXING SATURDAY WITH
CLOUDS BURNING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MINOR WARMING SATURDAY
AS THE HIGH INCHES EASTWARD...WITH GREATER WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE COASTAL ZONES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS THEY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MARINE LAYER.
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A PERSISTENT COASTAL EDDY THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE
TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS MOVING FAR INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
GROW THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
180230Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 1900 FT MSL
ARE SPREADING ACROSS COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY...CURRENTLY IMPACTING
KSAN...KCRQ AND INLAND TO KMYF. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND INLAND...REACHING KSNA AROUND 06Z AND KRNM
AROUND 10Z. CIGS COULD LIFT TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT MSL AFT 10Z.
TERRAIN ABV 2500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSCURED THROUGH 18Z SAT
MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING WEST OF THE MTNS...RESULTING IN SCT
CLOUDS AT COASTAL TAF SITES AFT 17Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO THE COASTAL AREAS AFT 03Z SUN WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
MSL.
WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MDT UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND A VERY SHORT PERIOD WIND SWELL WILL
CONTINUE IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW
GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT WHILE ROUGH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60
NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
000
FXUS66 KSGX 172033
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A DEEP MARINE LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES...AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING DRYING AND WARMING...ALONG WITH A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. COOLING TREND FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK-WEEK AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A TROUGH MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...BROUGHT A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND SOME DRIZZLE EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS PARTIALLY CLEARED
THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. ALSO...THE
MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH RESULTED IN A BAND OF MID-TO-HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...AND BECAUSE NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OR RADAR...HAVE TAKEN OUT SHOWER
CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONLY SPOT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...WHICH CURRENTLY HAS BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WHICH MAY DROP SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT OCCURRING. SOME HIGH
RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...AND SO HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL OF 7.4 MB
ONSHORE. THE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE
DAY...PEAKING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE GRADIENTS MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY...CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE A COUPLE SPOTS IN THE
COACHELLA VALLEY THAT GUSTED INTO THE LOW 60S YESTERDAY
EVENING...AND THAT HIGH RES MODELS WERE SUPPORTING GUSTS IN THE
45-50 MPH RANGE...A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE AT A SIMILAR DEPTH TONIGHT...AS THE
TROUGH DOES NOT QUITE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA YET...AND A PERSISTENT
COASTAL EDDY CONTINUES. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL WARMING FOR
SATURDAY. WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUING TO NUDGE INTO OUR AREA. THUS...BY
MONDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BRING A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS
AND WESTERN VALLEY SECTIONS.
A COOLING TREND WILL START ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BRINGING LOWER PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH WILL CREATE STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING FAR INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY GROW THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL.
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
172000Z...LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OVER THE COASTAL
BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 FT MSL ARE LINGERING IN MANY AREAS IN ORANGE COUNTY AND THE
INLAND EMPIRE. LOW CLOUDS WILL REFILL THE COASTAL BASIN THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND 2000-3000 FT MSL. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SOME COASTAL SLOPE TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES
TONIGHT IN CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 2500-4500 FEET. PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. BETTER CLEARING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND A VERY SHORT PERIOD WIND SWELL WILL
INCREASE IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT WHILE CHOPPY
COMBINED SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM
PDT SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60
NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 171549
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
849 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES...AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING DRYING AND WARMING...ALONG WITH A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. COOLING TREND FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK-WEEK AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A TROUGH MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...IS BRINGING A DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING AND
SOME DRIZZLE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A MARINE LAYER INVERSION
AT ABOUT 3500 FT MSL...WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE THAT THROUGH THE 615
MB LEVEL...AND THEN A MOIST LAYER ABOVE THAT LEVEL. THUS...WE HAVE
PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...IN
ADDITION A MARINE LAYER STRATUS LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. SEVERAL
STATIONS REPORTED DRIZZLE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH A
FEW SPOTS UP IN THE MOUNTAINS...SUCH AS TORO PEAK...DEVORE AND
CRESTLINE...REPORTING A HUNDREDTH TO FOUR HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL. AS THE DAY MOVES ON AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD...THE MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...SOME HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND SO HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL OF 6.5 MB
ONSHORE. THE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE
DAY...PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENTS MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY...CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE A COUPLE SPOTS IN THE
COACHELLA VALLEY THAT GUSTED INTO THE LOW 60S YESTERDAY
EVENING...AND THAT HIGH RES MODELS WERE SUPPORTING GUSTS IN THE
45-50 MPH RANGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR MID-AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN THE COACHELLA
VALLEY.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE AT A SIMILAR DEPTH TONIGHT...AS THE
TROUGH DOES NOT QUITE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA YET...AND A PERSISTENT
COASTAL EDDY CONTINUES. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL WARMING FOR
SATURDAY. WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUING TO NUDGE INTO OUR AREA. THUS...BY
MONDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BRING A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS
AND WESTERN VALLEY SECTIONS.
A COOLING TREND WILL START ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BRINGING LOWER PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH WILL CREATE STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING FAR INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY GROW THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL.
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
170900Z...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE COASTAL BASIN
WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 2000-2500 FEET AND ANOTHER LAYER AROUND...UP TO
3500 FEET IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE AS THE
TROUGH NEARS. RANDOM AND PARTIAL SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY...HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL REFILL THE
COASTAL BASIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND THE SAME LEVEL. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME COASTAL SLOPE TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED
AT TIMES IN CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 2500-4500 FEET THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND A VERY SHORT PERIOD WIND SWELL WILL
DEVELOP IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT WHILE COMBINED SEAS
UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
THE COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 171403 AAA
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
702 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
UPDATED W/W/A SECTION FOR WIND ADVISORY
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MAY LEAK SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES...AND
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING DRYING AND WARMING...
ALONG WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER
AGAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVERNIGHT CONTINUED GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS. LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NW...PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOWER MARINE CLOUDS
SURGING INLAND. A COASTAL EDDY WAS PRODUCING SE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AT 3 AM PDT. NO PCPN HAS BEEN DETECTED OR REPORTED...EXCEPT
FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF RIVERSIDE COUNTY WHERE TORO PEAK
REPORTED .01 INCH.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TOUGH ALOFT WILL SWING THROUGH CA TODAY...
SWEEPING THE HIGHER CLOUDS OFF TO THE EAST. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
MAY GET DEEP AND THICK ENOUGH TO LEAK SOME DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINSHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. SETTING US UP IN A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE EASTPAC...AND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY
SAT THROUGH MON AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS RISE OVER SOCAL.
THE WARMING TREND WILL GET SNUFFED OUT MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN...AS A CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACNW LATE TUE. THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
COLD LOW WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER ALL OF CA AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. BY THU OR FRI
THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...MAINLY
INLAND...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF. COASTAL AREAS WILL
BE CLOSE TO MID MAY NORMALS.
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FOR SOME POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE SFC LOW OVER THE DESERTS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND
CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST SPEEDS ARE LOWER AND BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. STILL COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE WINDER SPOTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE BANNING PASS TO AROUND 45 MPH BY EVENING. IN TERMS OF
PCPN...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY STINGY GENERATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS...
AND RISING CLOUD BASES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE...SO WILL MENTION PATCHY
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SAT AM WITH A MODERATE EDDY
CIRCULATION NEAR SHORE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUED
FOR...MAINLY THE COASTAL SLOPES LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE
00Z NAM4 GENERATING SOME PATCHY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
170900Z...LOW CLOUDS FILLED THE COASTAL BASIN WITH CIGS 2000-2500
FEET ASL EARLY THIS MORNING. TOPS WILL GROW FROM 3000 FEET TO AROUND
4500 FEET AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. RANDOM AND
PARTIAL SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...BUT MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 18-00Z TODAY. CLOUDS WILL REFILL THE COASTAL BASIN THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AT ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME COASTAL SLOPE TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES IN CLOUDS AND
FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 2500-4500 FEET THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND A VERY SHORT PERIOD WIND SWELL WILL
DEVELOP IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT WHILE COMBINED SEAS
UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
THE COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM NOON TODAY TO 5
AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
UPDATE...HARRISON
000
FXUS66 KSGX 171024
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
324 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MAY LEAK SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES...AND
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING DRYING AND WARMING...
ALONG WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER
AGAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVERNIGHT CONTINUED GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS. LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NW...PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOWER MARINE CLOUDS
SURGING INLAND. A COASTAL EDDY WAS PRODUCING SE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AT 3 AM PDT. NO PCPN HAS BEEN DETECTED OR REPORTED...EXCEPT
FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF RIVERSIDE COUNTY WHERE TORO PEAK
REPORTED .01 INCH.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TOUGH ALOFT WILL SWING THROUGH CA TODAY...
SWEEPING THE HIGHER CLOUDS OFF TO THE EAST. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
MAY GET DEEP AND THICK ENOUGH TO LEAK SOME DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINSHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. SETTING US UP IN A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE EASTPAC...AND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY
SAT THROUGH MON AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS RISE OVER SOCAL.
THE WARMING TREND WILL GET SNUFFED OUT MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN...AS A CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACNW LATE TUE. THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
COLD LOW WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER ALL OF CA AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. BY THU OR FRI
THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...MAINLY
INLAND...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF. COASTAL AREAS WILL
BE CLOSE TO MID MAY NORMALS.
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FOR SOME POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE SFC LOW OVER THE DESERTS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND
CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST SPEEDS ARE LOWER AND BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. STILL COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE WINDER SPOTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE BANNING PASS TO AROUND 45 MPH BY EVENING. IN TERMS OF
PCPN...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY STINGY GENERATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS...
AND RISING CLOUD BASES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE...SO WILL MENTION PATCHY
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SAT AM WITH A MODERATE EDDY
CIRCULATION NEAR SHORE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUED
FOR...MAINLY THE COASTAL SLOPES LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE
00Z NAM4 GENERATING SOME PATCHY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
170900Z...LOW CLOUDS FILLED THE COASTAL BASIN WITH CIGS 2000-2500
FEET ASL EARLY THIS MORNING. TOPS WILL GROW FROM 3000 FEET TO AROUND
4500 FEET AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. RANDOM AND
PARTIAL SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...BUT MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 18-00Z TODAY. CLOUDS WILL REFILL THE COASTAL BASIN THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AT ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME COASTAL SLOPE TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES IN CLOUDS AND
FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 2500-4500 FEET THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND A VERY SHORT PERIOD WIND SWELL WILL
DEVELOP IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT WHILE COMBINED SEAS
UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5
AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
000
FXUS66 KSGX 170445
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE FRIDAY FRIDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL BRING DRYING AND WARMING ALONG WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL COAST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WITH THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS SO-CAL FRIDAY
MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PACIFIC IS
BEING DRAWN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CA AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.10". HOWEVER MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE
10KFT...AND MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT NOW
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY...AND THOSE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE SMALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH.
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES WILL SEE THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPEN TO AROUND 4000 FEET FROM STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL EDDY. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER MAY GENERATE A FEW
AREAS OF DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER WINDY
DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
A SECONDARY WEAKER IMPULSE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER
4KFT DEEP SATURDAY MORNING WHEN PATCHY DRIZZLE IS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE INVERSION SO
MOST AREAS WILL SEE CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER.
HEIGHTS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXERTING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER CALIFORNIA
WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INCREASE WITH AN
EXPECTED 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING TO MOST AREAS...THE COASTAL AREAS
EXCEPTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR WARM DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNHILL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
170350Z...STRATUS...WITH BASES 1700-2600 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 3000
FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM THE COAST TO THE WESTERN MTN
SLOPES THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A COASTAL EDDY WILL
HELP RAISE CIGS 500-1000 FT OVERNIGHT. -DZ AND POSSIBLE -RA ARE
FORECAST EARLY FRI MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
FRI...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. VIS AOB 1SM IS POSSIBLE WHERE LOW
CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO OBSCURE SOME
MTN RIDGES. STRATUS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP INLAND FRI EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS MTN RIDGES
AND DESERT MTN SLOPES THROUGH FRI EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WILL
GENERATE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 25 KT...MAINLY FRI AFTN
THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. CHOPPY WIND WAVES
WILL CREATE COMBINED SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS BEEN ISSUED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5
AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
000
FXUS66 KSGX 162104
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THROUGH CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST MOVES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER...WITH
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A COOLING TREND IS
ALSO EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AND
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND WITH MORE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE BAND OF BEST COOLING CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND...WITH THE
1000-2000 FOOT AREAS LIKE ONTARIO....RIVERSIDE...THE UPPER DESERTS
EXPERIENCING THE LARGEST TEMPERATURE DROPS OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES F. THE SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE TO STRENGTHEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS A RESULT OF THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR...THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
FOR TONIGHT THE WRF-EMS INDICATES THAT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN FURTHER TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE AROUND 4000 FEET DEEP BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAKENING INVERSION BASED ON 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES C...THIS COULD RESULT
IN A REVERSE CLEARING EPISODE...ESPECIALLY IF WE START TO SEE A GOOD
BREAK-UP IN THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THAT
CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT TO SEE
IF WE NEED TO ADJUST THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN TO REFLECT THIS.
THE BUFKIT NAM4 SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A REDUCTION AS THE DAY GOES ON INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS INDICATED.
THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT ON
SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDSECTION OF THE NATION. ALONG WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS...AND
THICKNESSES ON THE ORDER OF A 120 METER INCREASE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD INITIATE A WARMUP OVER THE REGION.
BASED ON THE GFS 108 HOUR WEIGHTED MEAN HEIGHT GRAPHIC FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLES WE SEE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ANTICYCLONIC HEIGHT PATTERN
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. CERTAINTY VALUES INDICATE
LITTLE SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS...SO IT SEEMS VIABLE.
FURTHER OUT...AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY IT SHOWS A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST...WITH A TREND TOWARD BEING DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS IS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NOT MUCH...SO PROBABLY THIS SOLUTION
WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD ONE. SO COOLING LATER NEXT WEEK LOOKS SOUND.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...SOME ISSUES REMAIN...THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SMOKE OVER THE HIGH DESERT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
AVIATION...
162030Z...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PATCHES IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. ANOTHER EARLY RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS TO COASTAL AIRPORTS IS LIKELY WITH SIMILAR BASES AROUND
00-04Z THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO KONT BY 09Z. A PASSING TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THICKENING THE CLOUD LAYER AND LIFTING BASES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 10000 FEET
ASL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT
VARYING LEVELS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...FILLING THE COASTAL BASIN BACK IN TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES BY 08-09Z FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
162030Z...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT...PEAKING FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. AT THIS POINT GUSTS ARE
BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT JUST BELOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING FOR NOW...THOUGH ONE MAY BE NEEDED IF GUIDANCE CHANGES MUCH.
THE WIND WILL KICK UP 3 TO 5 FOOT WIND WAVES...HOWEVER...MAKING FOR
CHOPPY SEAS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE
PZ...NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
000
FXUS66 KSGX 161631
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT WINDS. THE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT...WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD...MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A
WARMING TREND AND DECREASING MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER COOLING TREND COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LOOKS LIKE SPRING IS NOW MORE LIKE SPRING AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
FALLING PRESSURES TO THE DESERT AREAS...AND STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS A RESULT OF THIS
PUSH OF MARINE AIR. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THIS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES TO
ME FOR TODAY.
SOME DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AFFECTS ALSO IN THE WORKS. WE HAVE A
GOOD EDDY CIRCULATION IN PROGRESS...AND THE MARINE LAYER IS UP TO
ABOUT 2500-3000 FEET DEEP SO FAR. I WOULD EXPECT IT TO DEEPEN TO
ABOUT 4000 FEET DEEP BY DAYS END ON FRIDAY. THE WRF-EMS ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT. WITH THE WEAKENING INVERSION BASED ON 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES C...THIS COULD
RESULT IN A REVERSE CLEARING EPISODE...ESPECIALLY IF WE START TO SEE
A GOOD BREAK-UP IN THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF WE NEED TO ADJUST THE LOW
CLOUDS PATTERN.
SOME RELAXATION IN THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CAN BE
SEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
INTO THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION. ALONG WITH SOME RISING HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES...THIS SHOULD INITIATE A WARMUP OVER THE REGION.
BASED ON THE GFS 108 HOUR WEIGHTED MEAN HEIGHT GRAPHIC FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLES WE SEE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ANTICYCLONIC HEIGHT PATTERN
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. CERTAINTY VALUES INDICATE
LITTLE SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS...SO SEEMS VIABLE.
FURTHER OUT...AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY IT SHOWS A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST...WITH A TREND TOWARD BEING DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS IS BEIGN ADVERTISED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NOT MUCH...SO PROBABLY THIS SOLUTION
WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD ONE. SO COOLING LATER NEXT WEEK LOOKS SOUND.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...SOME ISSUES REMAIN...AS SMOKE MAY
LINGER OVER THE HIGH DESERT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
161515Z...LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED THE COASTAL BASIN...EVEN MAKING IT
UP INTO THE CAJON PASS. BASES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1800-2300 FEET
ASL WITH TOPS AROUND 3000 FEET ASL. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM MOST
LOCATIONS AROUND 17-19Z THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE COULD REDUCE
VIS IN LOCALIZED AREAS AROUND THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERT THIS MORNING DUE TO A FIRE IN NORTHERN VENTURA COUNTY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO COASTAL AIRPORTS WITH SIMILAR BASES
AROUND 00-04Z THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO KONT BY 09Z. HIGHER
CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 10000 FEET ASL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE THICKENING LOW CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
WELL...POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING THE COAST.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE
PZ...NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
| 
