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000
FXUS66 KSGX 271639
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
839 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DESERTS WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY...WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION AS A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
IN. DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
LIKELY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRIER AND WARMER WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE NEAREST SHOWERS LOCATED OVER L.A....VENTURA AND KERN
COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS YESTERDAY IS NOW
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND MOVING NORTH...ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT LESS IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE 820-750
MB LAYER. WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE ARE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME FOG IN THE
DESERTS. THIS FOG SHOULD CLEAR UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHILE
BETTER SUNSHINE SNEAKS THROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ALSO. THE
COOL AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND BY THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY.

WARMER AND SUNNIER ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN ELONGATED TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO SONORA MEXICO ON
SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIKELY PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN DEEPENING TO THE SURFACE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
THE BEST PRECIP/MOISTURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA...BUT ALSO SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AS WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE MODELS FOCUSING THE BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS AND DESERTS...WITH LESS FOR
THE COAST. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AT AROUND 7000 FEET OR SO...WITH A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. THE CLOUD COVER
AND COLDER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A COOLING TREND...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO SONORA AND WE GET STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE
NUDGING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED PASSES...CANYONS
AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
271630Z...SCT050 BKN080 WITH AREAS OF 3-5SM BR IN THE DESERTS AND
SOME SECTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 19Z. AFT 19Z...P6SM
SCT070 THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF GROUND FOG BTWN 12-16Z IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS NEAR KRNM...KAJO AND KCNO.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM....NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE







000
FXUS66 KSGX 271639
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
839 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DESERTS WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY...WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION AS A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
IN. DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
LIKELY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRIER AND WARMER WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE NEAREST SHOWERS LOCATED OVER L.A....VENTURA AND KERN
COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS YESTERDAY IS NOW
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND MOVING NORTH...ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT LESS IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE 820-750
MB LAYER. WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE ARE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME FOG IN THE
DESERTS. THIS FOG SHOULD CLEAR UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHILE
BETTER SUNSHINE SNEAKS THROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ALSO. THE
COOL AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND BY THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY.

WARMER AND SUNNIER ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN ELONGATED TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO SONORA MEXICO ON
SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIKELY PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN DEEPENING TO THE SURFACE BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
THE BEST PRECIP/MOISTURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA...BUT ALSO SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AS WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE MODELS FOCUSING THE BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS AND DESERTS...WITH LESS FOR
THE COAST. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AT AROUND 7000 FEET OR SO...WITH A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. THE CLOUD COVER
AND COLDER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A COOLING TREND...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO SONORA AND WE GET STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE
NUDGING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED PASSES...CANYONS
AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
271630Z...SCT050 BKN080 WITH AREAS OF 3-5SM BR IN THE DESERTS AND
SOME SECTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 19Z. AFT 19Z...P6SM
SCT070 THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF GROUND FOG BTWN 12-16Z IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS NEAR KRNM...KAJO AND KCNO.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM....NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE






000
FXUS66 KSGX 271119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN SOME DESERT AND VALLEY AREAS. DRY AND A LITTLE
WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRIER AND WARMER WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TODAY. RADAR SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE INLAND EMPIRE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
DESERTS WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND
INLAND EMPIRE WITH SURFACE REPORTS SHOWING A FEW REPORTS OF DENSE
FOG...MAINLY IN LOWER LYING PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS AND INLAND
VALLEYS. GRADUAL DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A BLEND OF THE
SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WOULD
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
2701000Z...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS OF 3-5SM OR LOCALLY
LOWER WILL CONTINUE IN THE DESERT AND IN SOME INLAND VALLEYS
THROUGH 16Z. BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED CLOUD BASES WILL BE
MOSTLY AROUND 7000 FEET MSL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...BUT DOWN TO 2500
FEET IN THE DESERTS THROUGH ABOUT 17Z. AFTER 17Z ALL AREAS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND 7000 FEET AND AROUND 15000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM....NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM











000
FXUS66 KSGX 271119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN SOME DESERT AND VALLEY AREAS. DRY AND A LITTLE
WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRIER AND WARMER WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TODAY. RADAR SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE INLAND EMPIRE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
DESERTS WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND
INLAND EMPIRE WITH SURFACE REPORTS SHOWING A FEW REPORTS OF DENSE
FOG...MAINLY IN LOWER LYING PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS AND INLAND
VALLEYS. GRADUAL DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A BLEND OF THE
SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WOULD
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
2701000Z...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS OF 3-5SM OR LOCALLY
LOWER WILL CONTINUE IN THE DESERT AND IN SOME INLAND VALLEYS
THROUGH 16Z. BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED CLOUD BASES WILL BE
MOSTLY AROUND 7000 FEET MSL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...BUT DOWN TO 2500
FEET IN THE DESERTS THROUGH ABOUT 17Z. AFTER 17Z ALL AREAS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND 7000 FEET AND AROUND 15000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM....NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 270447
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
847 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY CARRYING THE SHOWERS WITH IT. DRY AND COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING IN SOME AREAS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WITH MORE SUN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RAIN WAS WIDESPREAD FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS TODAY. MOST AREAS
RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH...WITH THE LEAST ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE MOST IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS DID QUITE WELL THOUGH WITH SOME AMOUNTS OVER ONE-
QUARTER INCH. GREATEST AMOUNTS AROUND ONE-HALF INCH FELL ON THE FAR
INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL REMAINED ABOVE 8500
FEET SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MTS HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

AFTER A SOMEWHAT SOGGY DAY...THE SHOWERS WERE WINDING DOWN THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED JUST A FEW LEFT AND THEY WERE MOVING RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-35 MPH...HELPING TO KEEP FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS
LIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOWED STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS BUT
REMAINED WEAK OFFSHORE FROM THE DESERTS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE STILL
GUSTY AT 25-30 MPH IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING SHOWED NEAR SATURATION IN THE 9K-12K FT LAYER..BUT HAD
MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH 4K FT...HELPING TO
BOOST THE PW TO NEARLY ONE INCH. SOME IR ENHANCEMENT WAS STILL
OCCURRING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT WAS WELL NE OF THE CWA.

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR RAINFALL WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND WAS CENTERED WELL
WEST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AT 04Z. THE LOW SHOULD LEFT NE ACROSS
CENTRAL CA ON TUE...TURNING OUR WINDS ALOFT BACK FROM THE WEST...
CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. EVEN WITH
MORE SUNSHINE...A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS WILL LINGER...SO TUE WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON WED...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
ADVECT IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUT IS QUITE WEAK INITIALLY. THE
MODELS SHOW IT DEEPENING AND DEVELOPING INTO A CUTOFF LOW BY FRI.
MODELS ALSO SHOW MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH
WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND IT COVERING SOCAL. SO THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND AND
WITH MORE CLOUDS...THE DAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

WARMER AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY AGAIN BY SUNDAY...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND
A RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR...DRY...AND WARMER
DAYS ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
2701430Z...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY 08Z. PRIOR TO
08Z...VIS VALUES BELOW 3-5 SM AND CIGS NEAR 3000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
AFTER 08Z...P6SM WITH CIGS BETWEEN 4000 AND 7000 FEET WILL PREVAIL
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL CIGS 1800 TO 3000 FEET OVER THE
DESERTS...THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. FOR 12Z TUESDAY TO 06Z
WEDNESDAY...SCT-BKN CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 8000 FEET...AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET. NO WIND CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF
SITES THOUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM....NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA









000
FXUS66 KSGX 262121
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FOOT ELEVATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SHOWERS DISSIPATING QUICKLY TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEATHER AND BETTER SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING FROM
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AND ARIZONA...WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT
IS EVIDENT THAT THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN UP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LOT OF IT IS IN THE MID
AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...DESPITE SOME DECENT
LOOKING RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...AROUND A TRACE TO LOCALLY 0.04
INCHES. THE LOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY AND
THEN DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS MORE MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY THE LOWER LAYERS WILL
SATURATE AS WELL...RESULTING IN BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
PARTICULARLY FOR THE LOW ELEVATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC
DECREASE IN STORM-TOTAL QPF GENERATED BY THE WRF AND NAM4...AS THE
12Z RUNS OF THOSE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH AT ALL FOR THIS EVENT. THE
CANSAC WRF HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL. GIVEN THESE MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE LOWED THE QPF FOR TODAY INTO LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.75
INCHES...0.15-0.30 INCHES IN THE DESERTS AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH
0.10 INCH OR LESS AT THE COAST. THE WARM NATURE OF THE STORM WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...FALLING TO 7500-8000 FEET THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FOOT ELEVATION.
FINALLY...LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM LOCAL WRF
AND NAM4...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN COINCIDENCE WITH SOME COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND
SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COAST.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE SOME COOLING FOR TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH BETTER SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE REGION. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/BAJA
MEXICO SATURDAY...AND THEN SOUTH INTO LOWER BAJA MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE 12Z GFS MOSTLY DRY...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT WET. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
262130Z...LLWS BLO 1000 FEET AT KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA THROUGH 01Z.

THROUGH 08Z...BKN-OVC050-080 WITH AREAS OF RAIN...LCL BKN-OVC030-050
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
10Z TUESDAY. AFT 10Z...SCT-BKN050-080.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE






000
FXUS66 KSGX 262121
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FOOT ELEVATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SHOWERS DISSIPATING QUICKLY TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEATHER AND BETTER SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING FROM
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AND ARIZONA...WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT
IS EVIDENT THAT THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN UP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LOT OF IT IS IN THE MID
AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...DESPITE SOME DECENT
LOOKING RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...AROUND A TRACE TO LOCALLY 0.04
INCHES. THE LOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY AND
THEN DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS MORE MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY THE LOWER LAYERS WILL
SATURATE AS WELL...RESULTING IN BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
PARTICULARLY FOR THE LOW ELEVATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC
DECREASE IN STORM-TOTAL QPF GENERATED BY THE WRF AND NAM4...AS THE
12Z RUNS OF THOSE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH AT ALL FOR THIS EVENT. THE
CANSAC WRF HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL. GIVEN THESE MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE LOWED THE QPF FOR TODAY INTO LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.75
INCHES...0.15-0.30 INCHES IN THE DESERTS AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH
0.10 INCH OR LESS AT THE COAST. THE WARM NATURE OF THE STORM WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...FALLING TO 7500-8000 FEET THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FOOT ELEVATION.
FINALLY...LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM LOCAL WRF
AND NAM4...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN COINCIDENCE WITH SOME COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND
SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COAST.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE SOME COOLING FOR TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH BETTER SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE REGION. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/BAJA
MEXICO SATURDAY...AND THEN SOUTH INTO LOWER BAJA MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE 12Z GFS MOSTLY DRY...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT WET. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
262130Z...LLWS BLO 1000 FEET AT KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA THROUGH 01Z.

THROUGH 08Z...BKN-OVC050-080 WITH AREAS OF RAIN...LCL BKN-OVC030-050
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
10Z TUESDAY. AFT 10Z...SCT-BKN050-080.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE







000
FXUS66 KSGX 261650
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASE SHOWERS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FOOT ELEVATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS DISSIPATING QUICKLY
TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER AND BETTER SUNSHINE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LOCAL GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
CURRENTLY DOWN TO 8.2 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...WHEREAS THEY
WERE 12.2 MB 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER...WITH SOME
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AT THE COAST DESPITE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING FROM
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA...WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE
LOW IS SPINNING UP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...BUT MOST OF IT IS IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING...MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 550 MB...AND SO THE ONLY PLACES THAT HAVE REPORTED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE RAIN NOT HAVING AS MUCH TIME TO EVAPORATE IN
THE DRY LOW LAYERS BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE LOW IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS MORE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY THE LOWER LAYERS WILL SATURATE AS
WELL...RESULTING IN BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY FOR
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY LIGHT RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING UP FROM SOUTH OF THE BORDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS WITH ONE THIRD INCH OR LESS IN THE
DESERTS AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST. THE
13Z HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY INITIALIZED WELL...AND ACTUALLY
SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE CANSAC
WRF...LOCAL WRF AND NAM4 HAVE ALL NOTICEABLY BACKED OFF ON THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO WHAT THEY SHOWED
YESTERDAY. THUS...THE CURRENT POPS AND QPF MAY BE OVERDONE. THE WARM
NATURE OF THE STORM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...FALLING TO
7500-8000 FEET THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7500 FOOT ELEVATION. FINALLY...LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM LOCAL WRF AND NAM4...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING
IN COINCIDENCE WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE SOME COOLING FOR TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH BETTER SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE REGION. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/BAJA
MEXICO SATURDAY...AND THEN SOUTH INTO LOWER BAJA MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE 12Z GFS MOSTLY DRY...AND THE 00Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT WET. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
261630Z...BKN-OVC080-120 LOWERING TO 050-080 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 22-06Z...WITH
LCL OVC040-060 IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ENDING EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE






000
FXUS66 KSGX 261650
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASE SHOWERS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FOOT ELEVATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS DISSIPATING QUICKLY
TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER AND BETTER SUNSHINE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LOCAL GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
CURRENTLY DOWN TO 8.2 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...WHEREAS THEY
WERE 12.2 MB 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER...WITH SOME
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AT THE COAST DESPITE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING FROM
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA...WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE
LOW IS SPINNING UP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...BUT MOST OF IT IS IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING...MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 550 MB...AND SO THE ONLY PLACES THAT HAVE REPORTED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE RAIN NOT HAVING AS MUCH TIME TO EVAPORATE IN
THE DRY LOW LAYERS BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE LOW IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS MORE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY THE LOWER LAYERS WILL SATURATE AS
WELL...RESULTING IN BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY FOR
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY LIGHT RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING UP FROM SOUTH OF THE BORDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS WITH ONE THIRD INCH OR LESS IN THE
DESERTS AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST. THE
13Z HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY INITIALIZED WELL...AND ACTUALLY
SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE CANSAC
WRF...LOCAL WRF AND NAM4 HAVE ALL NOTICEABLY BACKED OFF ON THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO WHAT THEY SHOWED
YESTERDAY. THUS...THE CURRENT POPS AND QPF MAY BE OVERDONE. THE WARM
NATURE OF THE STORM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...FALLING TO
7500-8000 FEET THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7500 FOOT ELEVATION. FINALLY...LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM LOCAL WRF AND NAM4...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING
IN COINCIDENCE WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE SOME COOLING FOR TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH BETTER SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE REGION. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/BAJA
MEXICO SATURDAY...AND THEN SOUTH INTO LOWER BAJA MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE 12Z GFS MOSTLY DRY...AND THE 00Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT WET. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES...THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
261630Z...BKN-OVC080-120 LOWERING TO 050-080 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 22-06Z...WITH
LCL OVC040-060 IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ENDING EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE







000
FXUS66 KSGX 261111
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
310 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FOR INLAND
AREAS. DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA. IT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL QUITE DRY. RADAR RETURNS THUS
FAR HAVE BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA WITH NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AT ANY REPORTING SITES THUS FAR.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACCUMULATING
FIRST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVENTUALLY INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH
LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS WITH ONE THIRD INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS
AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST. THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT AND RESULTING GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS TOWARDS THE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY...THEN MAY DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BAJA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST LEANING
TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
261000Z...CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER
THIS MORNING LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS FROM 22-06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO
ABOUT 4000 TO 6000 FEET MSL DURING THE EVENING...AND COULD BRIEFLY
DROP TO AROUND 3000 FEET...ALTHOUGH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS AND THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM











000
FXUS66 KSGX 261111
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
310 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FOR INLAND
AREAS. DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA. IT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL QUITE DRY. RADAR RETURNS THUS
FAR HAVE BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA WITH NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AT ANY REPORTING SITES THUS FAR.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACCUMULATING
FIRST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVENTUALLY INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH
LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS WITH ONE THIRD INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS
AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST. THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT AND RESULTING GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS TOWARDS THE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY...THEN MAY DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BAJA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST LEANING
TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
261000Z...CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER
THIS MORNING LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS FROM 22-06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO
ABOUT 4000 TO 6000 FEET MSL DURING THE EVENING...AND COULD BRIEFLY
DROP TO AROUND 3000 FEET...ALTHOUGH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS AND THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 260509
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
907 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE BAJA COASTLINE NEAR 120W. THESE INTERESTING AND
CONTRASTING LAYERS OF CLOUDS HELPED TO BRING A SPECTACULAR SUNSET TO
THE REGION...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LEAK SOME LIGHT RAIN 0N MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...AFTER A WINDY AND DRY WEEKEND...WINDS HAVE DROPPED
OFF IN MANY AREAS...BUT WERE STILL GUSTY FROM THE EAST ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND SFC DEWPOINTS VERY LOW. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TRENDING ONSHORE...BUT AT 05Z WERE STILL RUNNING 9 MBS OFFSHORE FROM
NV. LOOKING ALOFT...THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL HAD REMARKABLE
50-70KT E WINDS ABOVE 15K FT...BUT WEAKENED STEADILY TOWARD THE
SURFACE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 3K FT. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...A DEEP DRY LAYER WAS IN PLACE BELOW 15K FT.

AT 8 PM PST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED REX BLOCK
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF N.A. THE CLOSED LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK WAS
CENTERED NEAR 28N/120W AND WAS SLINGING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO AND INTO SOCAL IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS. THE LOW WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST...AND MODELS SHOW IT
CONTINUING TO DRIFT TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY OPENING AS A TROUGH
WITH THE AXIS PASSING OVER SOCAL MON EVENING. THE CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM THE
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FEEDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD MON NIGHT/TUE...THE CLOUDS SHOULD PART AND THE SHOWERS
END. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION
DESPITE PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND ONE INCH.

THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP ON MON WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS IN CHECK...AND PROP UP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A BIT AFTER NIGHTS
OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE
EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MON...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS PAST
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY AND GOOD PVA W OF THE MTS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE MON...SO DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...TSTMS MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION
SHOWS AT LEAST ONE STRIKE WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS HEADING FOR THE CA
BIGHT MON EVENING.

TYPICAL WITH BLOCKS....THEY DON`T MOVE MUCH...SO THROUGH MIDWEEK...
THE BLOCK REMAINS OVER THE WEST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
PICKS UP WHERE THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK LEFT OFF. AND THERE IS
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS CUT-OFF
LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
INITIALLY...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE IN A GOOD
POSITION TO BRING SOCAL MUCH PRECIP...SO FOR NOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
260330Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AFTER
14Z MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION AFTER 16Z MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 20Z MONDAY TO 04Z
TUESDAY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND KEEP CIGS IN THE 3000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE. CIGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW THESE LEVELS AT PSP OR TRM WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. FREEZING LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 9000
AND 8000 FEET THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN E TO SE OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK
TO MODERATE TURBULENCE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA










000
FXUS66 KSGX 260509
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
907 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE BAJA COASTLINE NEAR 120W. THESE INTERESTING AND
CONTRASTING LAYERS OF CLOUDS HELPED TO BRING A SPECTACULAR SUNSET TO
THE REGION...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LEAK SOME LIGHT RAIN 0N MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...AFTER A WINDY AND DRY WEEKEND...WINDS HAVE DROPPED
OFF IN MANY AREAS...BUT WERE STILL GUSTY FROM THE EAST ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND SFC DEWPOINTS VERY LOW. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TRENDING ONSHORE...BUT AT 05Z WERE STILL RUNNING 9 MBS OFFSHORE FROM
NV. LOOKING ALOFT...THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL HAD REMARKABLE
50-70KT E WINDS ABOVE 15K FT...BUT WEAKENED STEADILY TOWARD THE
SURFACE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 3K FT. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...A DEEP DRY LAYER WAS IN PLACE BELOW 15K FT.

AT 8 PM PST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED REX BLOCK
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF N.A. THE CLOSED LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK WAS
CENTERED NEAR 28N/120W AND WAS SLINGING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO AND INTO SOCAL IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS. THE LOW WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST...AND MODELS SHOW IT
CONTINUING TO DRIFT TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY OPENING AS A TROUGH
WITH THE AXIS PASSING OVER SOCAL MON EVENING. THE CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM THE
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FEEDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD MON NIGHT/TUE...THE CLOUDS SHOULD PART AND THE SHOWERS
END. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION
DESPITE PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND ONE INCH.

THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP ON MON WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS IN CHECK...AND PROP UP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A BIT AFTER NIGHTS
OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE
EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MON...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS PAST
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY AND GOOD PVA W OF THE MTS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE MON...SO DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...TSTMS MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION
SHOWS AT LEAST ONE STRIKE WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS HEADING FOR THE CA
BIGHT MON EVENING.

TYPICAL WITH BLOCKS....THEY DON`T MOVE MUCH...SO THROUGH MIDWEEK...
THE BLOCK REMAINS OVER THE WEST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
PICKS UP WHERE THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK LEFT OFF. AND THERE IS
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS CUT-OFF
LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
INITIALLY...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE IN A GOOD
POSITION TO BRING SOCAL MUCH PRECIP...SO FOR NOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
260330Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AFTER
14Z MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION AFTER 16Z MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 20Z MONDAY TO 04Z
TUESDAY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND KEEP CIGS IN THE 3000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE. CIGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW THESE LEVELS AT PSP OR TRM WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. FREEZING LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 9000
AND 8000 FEET THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN E TO SE OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK
TO MODERATE TURBULENCE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA









000
FXUS66 KSGX 252148
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A NOW MOSTLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING
CURRENTLY...WITH 14.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 5.8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.2 MB AND 8.0 MB
RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE WRF WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESULTING
IN THE CURRENT BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WAS ALSO
PREDICTED WELL BY THE CANSAC WRF. THUS...SILL HILL IS NOW GUSTING TO
66 MPH...WITH BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AT 54 MPH AND ALPINE AT 52 MPH.
HIGHLAND SPRINGS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY...WITH 50 MPH GUSTS AT
THE MOMENT. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS THROUGH 4 PM...AND
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 4
PM. WINDS OVER THE OTHER AREAS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 40 MPH...AND SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLOUDY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ONLY
GET CLOUDIER AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
THAT TIME. THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS
STILL SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES...AND LOCAL 1-1.25
INCHES...CURRENTLY FORECAST. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FOR THIS REASON. MODELS BRING DECENT RAINFALL
TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE AREAS...SO
0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...QPF WAS ALSO BUMPED UPWARD A BIT IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST MAY ONLY SEE A 0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25
INCHES...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 0.10-0.25 INCHES AND LOCALLY 0.40
INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND TRACK...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23






000
FXUS66 KSGX 252148
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A NOW MOSTLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING
CURRENTLY...WITH 14.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 5.8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.2 MB AND 8.0 MB
RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE WRF WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESULTING
IN THE CURRENT BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WAS ALSO
PREDICTED WELL BY THE CANSAC WRF. THUS...SILL HILL IS NOW GUSTING TO
66 MPH...WITH BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AT 54 MPH AND ALPINE AT 52 MPH.
HIGHLAND SPRINGS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY...WITH 50 MPH GUSTS AT
THE MOMENT. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS THROUGH 4 PM...AND
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 4
PM. WINDS OVER THE OTHER AREAS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 40 MPH...AND SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLOUDY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ONLY
GET CLOUDIER AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
THAT TIME. THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS
STILL SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES...AND LOCAL 1-1.25
INCHES...CURRENTLY FORECAST. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FOR THIS REASON. MODELS BRING DECENT RAINFALL
TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE AREAS...SO
0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...QPF WAS ALSO BUMPED UPWARD A BIT IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST MAY ONLY SEE A 0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25
INCHES...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 0.10-0.25 INCHES AND LOCALLY 0.40
INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND TRACK...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23







000
FXUS66 KSGX 252148
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A NOW MOSTLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING
CURRENTLY...WITH 14.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 5.8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.2 MB AND 8.0 MB
RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE WRF WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESULTING
IN THE CURRENT BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WAS ALSO
PREDICTED WELL BY THE CANSAC WRF. THUS...SILL HILL IS NOW GUSTING TO
66 MPH...WITH BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AT 54 MPH AND ALPINE AT 52 MPH.
HIGHLAND SPRINGS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY...WITH 50 MPH GUSTS AT
THE MOMENT. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS THROUGH 4 PM...AND
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 4
PM. WINDS OVER THE OTHER AREAS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 40 MPH...AND SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLOUDY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ONLY
GET CLOUDIER AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
THAT TIME. THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS
STILL SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES...AND LOCAL 1-1.25
INCHES...CURRENTLY FORECAST. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FOR THIS REASON. MODELS BRING DECENT RAINFALL
TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE AREAS...SO
0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...QPF WAS ALSO BUMPED UPWARD A BIT IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST MAY ONLY SEE A 0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25
INCHES...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 0.10-0.25 INCHES AND LOCALLY 0.40
INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND TRACK...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23






000
FXUS66 KSGX 252148
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A NOW MOSTLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING
CURRENTLY...WITH 14.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 5.8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.2 MB AND 8.0 MB
RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE WRF WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESULTING
IN THE CURRENT BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WAS ALSO
PREDICTED WELL BY THE CANSAC WRF. THUS...SILL HILL IS NOW GUSTING TO
66 MPH...WITH BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AT 54 MPH AND ALPINE AT 52 MPH.
HIGHLAND SPRINGS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY...WITH 50 MPH GUSTS AT
THE MOMENT. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS THROUGH 4 PM...AND
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 4
PM. WINDS OVER THE OTHER AREAS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 40 MPH...AND SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLOUDY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ONLY
GET CLOUDIER AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
THAT TIME. THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS
STILL SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES...AND LOCAL 1-1.25
INCHES...CURRENTLY FORECAST. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FOR THIS REASON. MODELS BRING DECENT RAINFALL
TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE AREAS...SO
0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...QPF WAS ALSO BUMPED UPWARD A BIT IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST MAY ONLY SEE A 0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25
INCHES...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 0.10-0.25 INCHES AND LOCALLY 0.40
INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND TRACK...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23







000
FXUS66 KSGX 251653
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
852 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WESTWARD DRIFTING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST TO THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
ARE OVERALL WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING 50 MPH GUSTS AT SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 45 MPH GUSTS AT FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS...47 MPH GUSTS AT POTRERO AND 43 MPH AT PLEASANTS
PEAK...AND 42 MPH GUSTS AT ALPINE. THE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY PARTLY
DUE TO DIMINISHED OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH ARE NOW AT 15.3
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 6.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS
VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.4 MB AND 8.0 MB RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO.
ALSO...THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT
850 MB COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING DOWN FROM 35 KT TO 25 KT.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WRF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS UP TO
40-45 KT FROM THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS TO THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES FOR THAT TIME. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE CANSAC WRF WHICH
SHOWS A BURST OF WINDS OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THIS...THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 2 PM TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY...THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...INLAND EMPIRE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS WELL.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR DUE TO THE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH SOME WAVE CLOUDS PRODUCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY MAY CONTINUE TO BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE WHOLE COLUMN
BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS STILL
SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 1 INCHES FORECAST. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2
INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. MODELS BRING DECENT
RAINFALL TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF
BEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE
AREAS...SO 0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO
THE LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST AND HIGH DESERTS MAY ONLY SEE A
0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25 INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE
MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
251630Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23







000
FXUS66 KSGX 251653
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
852 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WESTWARD DRIFTING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST TO THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
ARE OVERALL WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING 50 MPH GUSTS AT SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 45 MPH GUSTS AT FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS...47 MPH GUSTS AT POTRERO AND 43 MPH AT PLEASANTS
PEAK...AND 42 MPH GUSTS AT ALPINE. THE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY PARTLY
DUE TO DIMINISHED OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH ARE NOW AT 15.3
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 6.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS
VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.4 MB AND 8.0 MB RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO.
ALSO...THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT
850 MB COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING DOWN FROM 35 KT TO 25 KT.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WRF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS UP TO
40-45 KT FROM THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS TO THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES FOR THAT TIME. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE CANSAC WRF WHICH
SHOWS A BURST OF WINDS OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THIS...THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 2 PM TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY...THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...INLAND EMPIRE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS WELL.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR DUE TO THE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH SOME WAVE CLOUDS PRODUCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY MAY CONTINUE TO BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE WHOLE COLUMN
BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS STILL
SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 1 INCHES FORECAST. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2
INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. MODELS BRING DECENT
RAINFALL TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF
BEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE
AREAS...SO 0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO
THE LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST AND HIGH DESERTS MAY ONLY SEE A
0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25 INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE
MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
251630Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23






000
FXUS66 KSGX 251119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A SECOND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
SOME COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS WITH WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AREAS WHERE OVERNIGHT WINDS CAUSED MIXING OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT...MAINLY THE COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS AND AREAS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS...WILL GET A WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S AS OF 3 AM.

THE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG NOR AS WIDESPREAD AS ON SATURDAY.

FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD BEGAN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE
COAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH WITH MOSTLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS AND FAR
INLAND VALLEYS WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS TOWARDS THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME CONTINUING MODEL SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 00Z GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER
AND FARTHER EAST AND INSULTINGLY DRIER. IF THE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS WERE TO HOLD...POPS WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED SOME FOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN LIKELY WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS TODAY AND COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO   AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB










000
FXUS66 KSGX 251119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A SECOND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
SOME COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS WITH WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AREAS WHERE OVERNIGHT WINDS CAUSED MIXING OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT...MAINLY THE COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS AND AREAS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS...WILL GET A WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S AS OF 3 AM.

THE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG NOR AS WIDESPREAD AS ON SATURDAY.

FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD BEGAN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE
COAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH WITH MOSTLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS AND FAR
INLAND VALLEYS WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS TOWARDS THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME CONTINUING MODEL SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 00Z GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER
AND FARTHER EAST AND INSULTINGLY DRIER. IF THE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS WERE TO HOLD...POPS WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED SOME FOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN LIKELY WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS TODAY AND COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO   AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB











000
FXUS66 KSGX 250502
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...THEN A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AT A FEW OF
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS SILL HILL AND FREMONT CANYON. THE NORTHERN AREAS
IN PARTICULAR ARE SLACKENING OFF...WITH WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THROUGH AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND
INTO THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
WARNING LEVELS...SO A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THE REASON WHY THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING IS DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND ALSO LESS UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOW THE GRADIENTS LOWERING TO ABOUT 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS
VEGAS...AND 9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH BY MID-MORNING
TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE GRADIENTS WERE 9 MB AND 14 MB RESPECTIVELY AT
THE SAME TIME THIS MORNING. ALSO...850 MB WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE GRADIENT SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES...AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. A HIGH WIND WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL FAVORED PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES
AND FOOTHILLS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY ACTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE
AREAS AFTERWARDS GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE CANSAC
WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW DECENTLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THAT TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. STILL
LOOKING AT SOME RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA MOVING NORTH ON MONDAY AND
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO
MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WAS ADDED FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS.
THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE
TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...BEST PRECIPITATION STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORM-TOTAL OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES...AND LOCALLY NEAR AN INCH FORECASTED. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4
ACTUALLY SHOW SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
TOTAL. MODELS HIT THE DESERTS DECENTLY HARD DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...SO THOSE AREAS MAY RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL COMPARED TO
WHAT THEY ARE USED TO...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR MAYBE UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS AND COAST
COULD SEE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH...ALTHOUGH THE CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 DO HINT AT HIGHER TOTALS
NEAR A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. THE WARM NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-9000 FEET DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UP IN
THE AIR DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
250400Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SUNDAY EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
LOWER ON MONDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY WERE TODAY. THE BIGGEST DROP-OFF TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE MAX GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE.
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE...WITH
DAY-TIME HUMIDITIES FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES...WILL
BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF LATER SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON/JT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 250502
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...THEN A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AT A FEW OF
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS SILL HILL AND FREMONT CANYON. THE NORTHERN AREAS
IN PARTICULAR ARE SLACKENING OFF...WITH WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THROUGH AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND
INTO THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
WARNING LEVELS...SO A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THE REASON WHY THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING IS DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND ALSO LESS UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOW THE GRADIENTS LOWERING TO ABOUT 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS
VEGAS...AND 9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH BY MID-MORNING
TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE GRADIENTS WERE 9 MB AND 14 MB RESPECTIVELY AT
THE SAME TIME THIS MORNING. ALSO...850 MB WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE GRADIENT SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES...AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. A HIGH WIND WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL FAVORED PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES
AND FOOTHILLS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY ACTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE
AREAS AFTERWARDS GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE CANSAC
WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW DECENTLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THAT TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. STILL
LOOKING AT SOME RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA MOVING NORTH ON MONDAY AND
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO
MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WAS ADDED FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS.
THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE
TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...BEST PRECIPITATION STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORM-TOTAL OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES...AND LOCALLY NEAR AN INCH FORECASTED. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4
ACTUALLY SHOW SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
TOTAL. MODELS HIT THE DESERTS DECENTLY HARD DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...SO THOSE AREAS MAY RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL COMPARED TO
WHAT THEY ARE USED TO...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR MAYBE UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS AND COAST
COULD SEE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH...ALTHOUGH THE CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 DO HINT AT HIGHER TOTALS
NEAR A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. THE WARM NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-9000 FEET DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UP IN
THE AIR DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
250400Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SUNDAY EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
LOWER ON MONDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY WERE TODAY. THE BIGGEST DROP-OFF TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE MAX GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE.
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE...WITH
DAY-TIME HUMIDITIES FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES...WILL
BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF LATER SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON/JT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA







000
FXUS66 KSGX 242158
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE DECREASE BEGINNING FIRST IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...THEN A SECOND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED A BIT FROM THEIR PEAK EARLIER TODAY...BUT
SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE WRF AND BUFKIT DATA. THE PEAK WIND AT SILL
HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS CLOCKED A GUST OF 89 MPH
SO FAR TODAY. OTHER AREAS SUCH AS FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS REGISTERED A GUST TO 77 MPH SO FAR.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPLYING SURFACE SUPPORT... AND A
CUTOFF LOW TYPE OF SETUP FOR GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...ARE RESPONSIBLY FOR THIS EVENT.

THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THE MOST OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
AREAS...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAP ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
242115Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS. ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 60 KTS IN THE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...A LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...DROPPING OFF GRADUALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 4-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONG AND
WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EVENING...THEN DROP OFF SOME AND
BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST DROPOFF TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23
















000
FXUS66 KSGX 242158
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE DECREASE BEGINNING FIRST IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...THEN A SECOND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED A BIT FROM THEIR PEAK EARLIER TODAY...BUT
SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE WRF AND BUFKIT DATA. THE PEAK WIND AT SILL
HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS CLOCKED A GUST OF 89 MPH
SO FAR TODAY. OTHER AREAS SUCH AS FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS REGISTERED A GUST TO 77 MPH SO FAR.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPLYING SURFACE SUPPORT... AND A
CUTOFF LOW TYPE OF SETUP FOR GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...ARE RESPONSIBLY FOR THIS EVENT.

THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THE MOST OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
AREAS...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAP ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
242115Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS. ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 60 KTS IN THE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...A LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...DROPPING OFF GRADUALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 4-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONG AND
WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EVENING...THEN DROP OFF SOME AND
BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST DROPOFF TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23

















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