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000
FXUS66 KSGX 312040
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD
RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND BRISK WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
DRY AND WARM DAYS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE COASTAL
BASIN THROUGH THE EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...OUR FIRST OF THE
SEASON...IS DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND IS ALREADY
SPREADING SOME RAIN THROUGH NOCAL. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS A POTENT
COLD FRONT AND DECENT MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR A BROAD BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT THAT COULD MAKE SOME STREETS WET FOR
HOLIDAY PARTIES...BUT TRICK OR TREATERS FINISHING EARLY ENOUGH
SHOULD AVOID ANY SPOOKY WEATHER. SNOW WILL FALL IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FEET AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE
7000 FEET...BUT LESS THAN 3 INCHES BELOW. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. WINDS WILL START OUT GUSTY THROUGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
PASSES TONIGHT...BUT BECOME QUITE STRONG AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH HAS A SECOND WAVE; IT IS MUCH WEAKER BUT ROTATES THROUGH OUR
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD COAX A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...SOME A RESULT OF ISLAND BANDS. TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALL
MOVES ASIDE AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE WEST COAST.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A RIDGE IT WILL BE...BUT FAIR...DRY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS COMING. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP AT THE
SAME TIME TO ADD TO THE WARMING/DRYING TREND. THERE COULD BE SOME
DECENT OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE USUAL SPOTS. TEMPS WILL HEAD INTO THE
80S EVEN NEAR THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
312000Z...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES 3000-4000 FT MSL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASES LOWERING BACK TO AROUND 2000 FT MSL
AFTER 01/02Z. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MTNS BEGINNING AROUND 01/04-07Z...BECOMING HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AFTER 01/10Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IN THE LOW DESERTS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH SAT MORNING. SHOWERS ENDING AND
CIGS LIFTING BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH BROKEN CIGS AROUND
5000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SW TO W WINDS 20-30 KT GUSTING TO 40-50 KT OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
ALONG DESERT SLOPES/ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS...LLWS AND ROTORS E AND NE OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z. VIS
LOCALLY REDUCED TO 5 SM OR LESS IN BLDU/HZ.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BRING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT AND STEEP WAVES SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR DETAILS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR TODAY. SKYWARN MAY BE
REQUESTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FOR
URBANIZED AND BURN SCAR FLOODING CONCERNS AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT
     SATURDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
     THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
     POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...THOR
AVIATION/MARINE...LOKI







000
FXUS66 KSGX 311532
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. RAIN AND
HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER DAYS NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED CONSIDERABLY WITH SOME CLOUDS REACHING
UP MOUNTAIN SLOPES TO 5000 FEET AND NEARLY ALL OF THE COASTAL BASIN
IS SHROUDED. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...OUR FIRST OF THE SEASON...IS DEEPENING OFF
THE WEST COAST TODAY AND IS ALREADY SPREADING SOME RAIN THROUGH
NOCAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SOCAL IS
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A LEGITIMATE COLD FRONT IS
HEADED OUR WAY. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH AND ENERGY SUFFICIENT
FOR A BROAD BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION
HAPPENING MOSTLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT THAT COULD
MAKE SOME STREETS WET FOR HOLIDAY PARTIES...BUT TRICK OR TREATERS
FINISHING EARLY ENOUGH SHOULD AVOID MOST SHOWERS. SNOW WILL FALL IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FEET AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. SEVERAL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET...BUT LESS THAN 3 INCHES BELOW. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL START OUT GUSTY THROUGH
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND PASSES TONIGHT...BUT BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY. ALL
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SOME STRONG WINDS SATURDAY
BEFORE DECREASING LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS A
SECOND WAVE; IT IS MUCH WEAKER BUT ROTATES THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD COAX A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY...SOME A RESULT OF ISLAND BANDS. TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE SECOND WAVE MOVES OFF
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE WEST COAST. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW STRONG OF A RIDGE IT WILL BE...BUT FAIR...DRY AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS COMING. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP AT THE SAME TIME TO
ADD TO THE WARMING/DRYING TREND. ON WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME
DECENT OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE USUAL SPOTS. TEMPS WILL HEAD INTO THE
80S EVEN NEAR THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
311530Z...MULTIPLE BKN CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES 2000-4000 FT MSL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS BECOMING SCT-BKN WITH
BASES 3000-4000 FT MSL AFTER 16-18Z. BASES LOWERING BACK TO AROUND
2000 FT MSL AFTER 01/00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTNS BEGINNING AROUND
01/01-03Z...BECOMING HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AFTER
01/10Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN THE LOW DESERTS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH SAT
MORNING.

SW TO W WINDS 20-30 KT GUSTING TO 40-50 KT OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
ALONG DESERT SLOPES/ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS...LLWS AND ROTORS E AND NE OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z. VIS
LOCALLY REDUCED TO 5SM OR LESS IN BLDU/HZ.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BRING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND STEEP WAVES SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR DETAILS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR TODAY. SKYWARN MAY BE
REQUESTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FOR
URBANIZED AND BURN SCAR FLOODING CONCERNS AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT
     SATURDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
     THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
     POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...THOR
AVIATION/MARINE...LOKI







000
FXUS66 KSGX 311055
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
355 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. RAIN IS
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 7000 FEET. WARMER DAYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IS SITUATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES ALONG THE U.S.
WEST COAST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE A BIG SWING AT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH LINGERING IN SOCAL SUNDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS HAVE RAMPED UP THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF PRECIP...ALTHOUGH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH LINGERING THROUGHOUT OUR AREA. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST BY THE VERY
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE TO REACH 300-400 K/KG SO ALTHOUGH
WE`RE NOT FORECASTING THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
ENHANCED HEAVIER BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SILVERADO BURN SCAR
IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH WILL BE LIKELY. AS MENTIONED BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD INITIATE A DEBRIS FLOW. IN
ADDITION...URBANIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN
ORANGE AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE CONDITIONS.

IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND ONE
INCH WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH GROUND CONDITIONS ARE
OBVIOUSLY QUITE WARM...THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW
ADEQUATE TIME TO COOL OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES IN
LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME ACCUMULATION TO TAKE PLACE DURING
THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.

PRECIP WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATER SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE BROAD
FORCING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH IN THE MOST FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART SOCAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
REPLACED WITH EAST PAC RIDGING. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE INLAND
VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH GRADIENTS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE
STRONG WINDS...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INLAND VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
311040Z...MULTIPLE BKN CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES 1500-3000 FT MSL
FILLING IN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS
BECOMING SCT-BKN WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AFTER 16-18Z. BASES
LOWERING BACK TO AROUND 2000 FT MSL AFTER 01/00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTNS BEGINNING
AROUND 01/01-03Z...BECOMING HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AFTER
01/10Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN THE LOW DESERTS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SAT MORNING.

SW TO W WINDS 20-30 KT GUSTING TO 40-50 KT OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
ALONG DESERT SLOPES/ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS...LLWS AND ROTORS E AND NE OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z. VIS
LOCALLY REDUCED TO 5SM OR LESS IN BLDU/HZ.

&&

.MARINE...
350 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BRING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND STEEP WAVES SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR DETAILS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR TODAY. SKYWARN MAY BE
REQUESTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FOR
URBANIZED AND BURN SCAR FLOODING CONCERNS AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT
     SATURDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
     THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
     POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 311055
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
355 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. RAIN IS
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 7000 FEET. WARMER DAYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IS SITUATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES ALONG THE U.S.
WEST COAST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE A BIG SWING AT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH LINGERING IN SOCAL SUNDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS HAVE RAMPED UP THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF PRECIP...ALTHOUGH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH LINGERING THROUGHOUT OUR AREA. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST BY THE VERY
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE TO REACH 300-400 K/KG SO ALTHOUGH
WE`RE NOT FORECASTING THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
ENHANCED HEAVIER BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SILVERADO BURN SCAR
IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH WILL BE LIKELY. AS MENTIONED BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD INITIATE A DEBRIS FLOW. IN
ADDITION...URBANIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN
ORANGE AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE CONDITIONS.

IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND ONE
INCH WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH GROUND CONDITIONS ARE
OBVIOUSLY QUITE WARM...THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW
ADEQUATE TIME TO COOL OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES IN
LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME ACCUMULATION TO TAKE PLACE DURING
THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.

PRECIP WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATER SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE BROAD
FORCING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH IN THE MOST FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART SOCAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
REPLACED WITH EAST PAC RIDGING. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE INLAND
VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH GRADIENTS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE
STRONG WINDS...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INLAND VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
311040Z...MULTIPLE BKN CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES 1500-3000 FT MSL
FILLING IN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS
BECOMING SCT-BKN WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AFTER 16-18Z. BASES
LOWERING BACK TO AROUND 2000 FT MSL AFTER 01/00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTNS BEGINNING
AROUND 01/01-03Z...BECOMING HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AFTER
01/10Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN THE LOW DESERTS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SAT MORNING.

SW TO W WINDS 20-30 KT GUSTING TO 40-50 KT OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
ALONG DESERT SLOPES/ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS...LLWS AND ROTORS E AND NE OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z. VIS
LOCALLY REDUCED TO 5SM OR LESS IN BLDU/HZ.

&&

.MARINE...
350 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BRING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND STEEP WAVES SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR DETAILS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR TODAY. SKYWARN MAY BE
REQUESTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FOR
URBANIZED AND BURN SCAR FLOODING CONCERNS AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT
     SATURDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
     THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
     POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 310431
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. RAIN IS
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER DAYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER AND WETTER WITH THE POTENT
TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE 18Z WRF PROJECTS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION TO 9000
FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS 3000 FEET DEEPER THAN YESTERDAYS WRF. A
105KT 300 MB JET CORE WILL DIG THE TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.
THERE IS ALSO A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE STORM WITH CAPE VALUES OF
200-400 J/KG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ORANGE COUNTY BETWEEN
09-15Z SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND
AND THE ADDED LIFT COULD FUEL BRIEFLY HIGHER RAIN RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THERE IS ALSO A BRIEF SURGE OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.00" INTO SOCAL FRIDAY NIGHT. FACTOR IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT
FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST 850 MB WINDS AND RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
MORE APPEAR REALISTIC OVER THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE PRECIP TOTALS OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY FALL OFF
SLIGHTLY AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.
BUT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...THE DEEP MOIST LAYER AND THE STRONG
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL STILL PRODUCE BENEFICIAL RAINS OF A HALF TO
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE TREATED WITH RAIN ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES: COOLER FRIDAY WITH A SURGE OF MARINE AIR AND LOW
CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND. SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH COASTAL
AND VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH WAS IN THE 60S
AT LINDBERGH FIELD WAS MAY 24TH WHEN THE HIGH WAS 67.

WIND: STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 30 TO 50
MPH WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS.

SNOW: SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7000 FT WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT BETWEEN
6000-6500 FEET...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000
FEET.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WE ARE LOOKING AT A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND A PERIOD
OF WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...
310237Z...BKN-SCT CLOUDS AOA 13000 FT MSL OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME
FEW-SCT BY 1200 UTC. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FILL IN
15-25 SM INLAND THROUGH 1200 UTC...WITH OVC-BKN BASES OF 1300-1700
FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000-2500 FT MSL. 1200-1800 UTC...LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT 35-45 SM INLAND AND DEEPEN...WITH BASES BECOMING
2000-3000 FT MSL AND TOPS RISING TO 3500-4500 FT MSL. EXPECTING ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS 1500-01/0000 UTC...WITH BKN-SCT CIGS
PROBABLY CONTINUING AT KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA. 01/0000-1200
UTC...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS DEVELOPING IN THE 2000-10000 FT
MSL LAYER OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...MTN OBSCURATION OF
COASTAL SLOPES...AREAS OF CIGS 1000-500 FT AGL AND AREAS OF VIS AOB
5 SM DUE TO SHOWERS/MIST.

W TO SW WINDS 20-30 KT GUSTING TO 40-55 KT OVER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...THROUGH PASSES/CANYONS...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO
ADJACENT DESERT AREAS WILL RESULT IN MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...LLWS
AND POSSIBLE ROTORS OVER AND E OR NE OF THE MOUNTAINS STARTING 2100
UTC. DESERTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
01/1200 UTC...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM IN BLOWING DUST/SAND
AFTER 2100 UTC. ANY SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE DESERTS UNTIL
AFTER 01/0900 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
737 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 KT AND STEEP WAVES TO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR
DETAILS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
     THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
     POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON









000
FXUS66 KSGX 302059
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
159 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY THIS WEEK WITH SEASONAL WEATHER. THE FIRST
STORM OF THE WET SEASON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS...WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND A
DEEP MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN CA...AND A UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

THE 30/1200 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PUSH INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

THE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SW
CA SINCE THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PLUME WILL
ONLY CONTAIN AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND ISLAND BANDING DEVELOPS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE JUST
ABOVE 7000 FT WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

...FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE...
HIGH DESERTS....LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
COAST/VALLEYS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
MOUNTAINS.......0.50 TO 1.00 INCH

...FORECAST SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...
6500-7500 FT...1 TO 2 INCHES
7500+ FT.......3 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHER AMOUNTS ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY DIP DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST...TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL INLAND. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 30 TO 50
MPH...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND
ADVISORY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES F
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH
DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER SW CA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
302000Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET MSL WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...BASED
AROUND 1500 FEET MSL...WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN
31/02-06Z THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO LOWER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND
REACHING KONT BY AROUND 31/09Z. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR/HZ LIKELY
IN INLAND VALLEYS AND WHERE CLOUDS MEET HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF
SCATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
HIGHER...MORE EXTENSIVE...CLOUD COVER MOVES IN WITH THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR DETAILS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SUNDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
     THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
     POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 301637
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
937 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE
SEASON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER
DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN CA...AND A UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS.

THE 30/0600 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND SLIGHTLY DIFFER IN
THE LONG-TERM. HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PUSH INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

THE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SW
CA SINCE THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PLUME WILL
ONLY CONTAIN AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND ISLAND BANDING DEVELOPS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE JUST
ABOVE 7000 FT WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

...FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE...
HIGH DESERTS....LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
COAST/VALLEYS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
MOUNTAINS.......0.50 TO 1.00 INCH

...FORECAST SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...
6500-7500 FT...1 TO 2 INCHES
7500+ FT.......3 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHER AMOUNTS ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY DIP DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST...TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL INLAND. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 30 TO 50
MPH...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES F
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH
DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER SW CA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
301515Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET MSL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...BASED AROUND
1500 FEET MSL...WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 31/02-06Z
THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO LOWER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND REACHING
KONT BY AROUND 31/09Z. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR/HZ LIKELY IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND WHERE CLOUDS MEET HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF SCATTERING OF
LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGHER...MORE
EXTENSIVE...CLOUD COVER MOVES IN WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 301637
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
937 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE
SEASON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER
DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN CA...AND A UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS.

THE 30/0600 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND SLIGHTLY DIFFER IN
THE LONG-TERM. HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PUSH INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

THE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SW
CA SINCE THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PLUME WILL
ONLY CONTAIN AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND ISLAND BANDING DEVELOPS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE JUST
ABOVE 7000 FT WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

...FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE...
HIGH DESERTS....LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
COAST/VALLEYS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
MOUNTAINS.......0.50 TO 1.00 INCH

...FORECAST SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...
6500-7500 FT...1 TO 2 INCHES
7500+ FT.......3 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHER AMOUNTS ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY DIP DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST...TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL INLAND. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 30 TO 50
MPH...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES F
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH
DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER SW CA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
301515Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET MSL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...BASED AROUND
1500 FEET MSL...WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 31/02-06Z
THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO LOWER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND REACHING
KONT BY AROUND 31/09Z. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR/HZ LIKELY IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND WHERE CLOUDS MEET HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF SCATTERING OF
LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGHER...MORE
EXTENSIVE...CLOUD COVER MOVES IN WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 301108
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
408 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER TODAY...THEN A MAJOR WINTER-LIKE STORM PUSH INTO THE
WEST COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS DOWN
THE WEST COAST. THIS STORM WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE STORM WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FOR WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...

HIGH PRES RIDGE IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS IS STEAMING OUT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ABOUT 700 MILES
WSW OF SAN DIEGO. THIS UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BRING A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT NOT MUCH OF ANY OTHER IMPACTS AS IT WILL
REMAIN MILD FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE
GRADIENTS LATER TODAY THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ONLY A
MINOR NOTE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AND BRING A COOLER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE COASTAL VALLEYS. A MAJOR EAST PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES FIRST NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DIG DOWN THE COAST TOWARDS
SAN DIEGO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK A RATHER
ROBUST COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK
MAYBE 6 HOURS SO THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TRICK OR
TREATERS HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF REMAINING DRY IF THEY CAN GET
BACK HOME NOT LONG AFTER DARK.

AS MENTIONED THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS STILL LIKELY TO
CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR SAN DIEGO PROPER WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CITY.

THE COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL TURN THE RAIN TO SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH
UP TO SIX INCHES IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH DESERTS WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRECIP FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.

SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN ENSUE FOR EARLY
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. GREAT BASIN SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
300930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE RANDOMLY
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING THROUGH 15Z. WHEN/WHERE CIGS
OCCUR...BASES WILL BE AROUND 600 FEET MSL WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM.
MEANWHILE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET MSL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BASED AT AROUND
1500 FEET MSL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS FROM
02-06Z THIS EVENING AND HEAD INTO LOWER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 300411
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AGAIN THURSDAY...THEN COOLER FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN
THE WEST COAST. THIS THROUGH WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS A BEAUTIFUL COMMA CLOUD
PUNCTUATING THE SKIES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL RACE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BRING A LARGE SWATH AND MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY.

TODAY WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE
COAST...THE 80S IN THE VALLEY AND A FEW LOW 90S IN THE INLAND
EMPIRE. THE NATIONS HIGH WAS 94 AT THERMAL. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY...NOT AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. GREATER COOLING FRIDAY WITH A COLD EARLY-SEASON LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STARTING TO SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE BETWEEN
5-6KFT AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS HALLOWEEN
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE RAIN WAS
RECORDED AT LINDBERGH FIELD ON OCTOBER 31ST WAS BACK IN 1987 WHEN
0.52" INCHES FELL. LINDBERGH FIELD WILL NOT GET THAT MUCH RAIN...THE
STORM IS TRACKING A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN. BUT IT
COULD BE MEASURABLE. A POTENT VORT MAX AND STRONG JET ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT THE INCREASING
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL VARY IN THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY ZONES FROM AS LITTLE AS FEW HUNDREDTHS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TO
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH FARTHER NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE MOST
PRECIP AS OROGRAPHICS WILL BE OPTIMIZED BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
0.25"-0.50"...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75" POSSIBLE IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STORM TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON TO FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE WARM
GROUND...BUT A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50
KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...LOWER HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
300330Z...COAST AND VALLEYS...SKC CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH 30/0800Z
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL. AFT
30/0800Z PATCHY BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 600-800 FT MSL
WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INLAND UP TO 5 MILES FROM THE COAST. VIS WILL
LOWER TO BETWEEN 3-5 SM WHERE THE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL MESAS. EXPECTING TEMPO CIGS AT KSNA...KOKB...AND KSAN
BETWEEN 30/0800Z AND 30/1200Z. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THIS DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 30/1200-1500Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ON THURSDAY EVENING AND ARRIVE A
COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.

DESERTS/MTS...SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABV 20000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE SKC CONDS
AND LIGHT BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 300411
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AGAIN THURSDAY...THEN COOLER FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN
THE WEST COAST. THIS THROUGH WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS A BEAUTIFUL COMMA CLOUD
PUNCTUATING THE SKIES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL RACE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BRING A LARGE SWATH AND MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY.

TODAY WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE
COAST...THE 80S IN THE VALLEY AND A FEW LOW 90S IN THE INLAND
EMPIRE. THE NATIONS HIGH WAS 94 AT THERMAL. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY...NOT AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. GREATER COOLING FRIDAY WITH A COLD EARLY-SEASON LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STARTING TO SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE BETWEEN
5-6KFT AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS HALLOWEEN
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE RAIN WAS
RECORDED AT LINDBERGH FIELD ON OCTOBER 31ST WAS BACK IN 1987 WHEN
0.52" INCHES FELL. LINDBERGH FIELD WILL NOT GET THAT MUCH RAIN...THE
STORM IS TRACKING A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN. BUT IT
COULD BE MEASURABLE. A POTENT VORT MAX AND STRONG JET ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT THE INCREASING
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL VARY IN THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY ZONES FROM AS LITTLE AS FEW HUNDREDTHS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TO
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH FARTHER NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE MOST
PRECIP AS OROGRAPHICS WILL BE OPTIMIZED BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
0.25"-0.50"...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75" POSSIBLE IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STORM TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON TO FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE WARM
GROUND...BUT A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50
KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...LOWER HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
300330Z...COAST AND VALLEYS...SKC CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH 30/0800Z
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL. AFT
30/0800Z PATCHY BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 600-800 FT MSL
WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INLAND UP TO 5 MILES FROM THE COAST. VIS WILL
LOWER TO BETWEEN 3-5 SM WHERE THE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL MESAS. EXPECTING TEMPO CIGS AT KSNA...KOKB...AND KSAN
BETWEEN 30/0800Z AND 30/1200Z. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THIS DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 30/1200-1500Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ON THURSDAY EVENING AND ARRIVE A
COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.

DESERTS/MTS...SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABV 20000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE SKC CONDS
AND LIGHT BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 292014
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
114 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW
COOLING AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY CREATING COOLER...BREEZY AND WET WEATHER. SLOW
WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF WEAK
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS SW CA.

THE 29/1200 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS JUST
BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS SW CA SINCE
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
FROM 6000-7000 FT...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON
SATURDAY DIP DOWN TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...TO
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND. 850 MB WINDS NEAR 45 MPH
WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
292000Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 400 TO
800 FEET MSL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z...WITH AREAS OF
3-5 SM VIS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL MESAS. THE COASTAL TAFS COULD
EXPERIENCE BRIEF CIGS AND LOWER VIS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ANY
CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE GONE BY 30/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 291628
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW COOLING AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
CREATING COOLER...BREEZY AND WET WEATHER. SLOW WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE -8.2 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT
LAKE CITY...AND -1.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS. THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE EASTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
OVER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

THE 29/0000 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PEAK
TODAY...RAISING HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS SW CA SINCE
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A DUSTING TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM 6000-7000
FT...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY DIP DOWN TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INLAND. 850 MB WINDS NEAR 45 MPH WILL CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
291530Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT....EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 400
TO 800 FEET MSL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z...WITH AREAS OF
3-5 SM VIS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL MESAS. THE COASTAL TAFS COULD
SEE BRIEF CIGS AND LOWER VIS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 291628
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW COOLING AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
CREATING COOLER...BREEZY AND WET WEATHER. SLOW WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE -8.2 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT
LAKE CITY...AND -1.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS. THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE EASTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
OVER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

THE 29/0000 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PEAK
TODAY...RAISING HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS SW CA SINCE
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A DUSTING TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM 6000-7000
FT...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY DIP DOWN TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INLAND. 850 MB WINDS NEAR 45 MPH WILL CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
291530Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT....EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 400
TO 800 FEET MSL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z...WITH AREAS OF
3-5 SM VIS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL MESAS. THE COASTAL TAFS COULD
SEE BRIEF CIGS AND LOWER VIS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 291126
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
425 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLOW COOLING
THURSDAY AND A LITTLE GREATER COOLING FRIDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING COOLING...LIGHT TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTY LOCALLY STRONG
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLOWLY WARMER SUNDAY.
GREATER WARMING FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE STRENGTH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PEAK TODAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TUESDAY MORNING WITH
STRONGEST LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY...COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY...
WITH GREATER COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY. AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A STILL FAIRLY WEAK INVERSION
NEAR 1000 FEET. HOWEVER THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP PATCHY
STRATUS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSER ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION FROM THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SOME TOWARDS THE GREATER ECMWF MOS NUMBERS
WITH THE QPF INCREASED SOME AS WELL. LOWER POPS ARE RETAINED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE LAST SHORTWAVE THE
ECMWF BRINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH IS THE MAIN AREA WHERE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SLOW WARMING WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH GREATER WARMING FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPANDS INTO
CALIFORNIA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BRINGS
MODERATE STRENGTH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEYS AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
290930Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. CLEAR TONIGHT AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED
AT AROUND 900 FEET MSL ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM











000
FXUS66 KSGX 290416
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY. MINOR COOLING THURSDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GREATER COOLER FRIDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS EARLY SEASON TROUGH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR AND MILD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANY LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS 587 DM OVER SO-CAL WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING AN EVEN WARMER DAY TOMORROW THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. THE RIDGE
DRIFTS EAST TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY. LOWER HEIGHTS AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO COASTAL
AND VALLEY ZONES...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN(!) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS EARLY SEASON STORM...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GLOOMY WEATHER ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL 105 KT JET WILL PASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IN THE FORM OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER TO 5000 FEET WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDED
LIFT OF THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL WILL TAKE PLACE WITH SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850 MB SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-20KTS FRIDAY EVENING SHIFT WEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF OROGRAPHICS HERE TOO.

PRECIP TOTALS...RAIN TOTALS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS INCH TO
AS MUCH AS A TENTH OF AN INCH THE COASTAL AND VALLEYS ZONES. A TENTH
TO A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN THE FAVORED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
290345Z...A FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 900-1200 FT MSL ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING...BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.
OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
850 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20-30 KT AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS MAY DEVELOP
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN FAVORED
SPOTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS











000
FXUS66 KSGX 290416
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY. MINOR COOLING THURSDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GREATER COOLER FRIDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS EARLY SEASON TROUGH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR AND MILD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANY LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS 587 DM OVER SO-CAL WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING AN EVEN WARMER DAY TOMORROW THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. THE RIDGE
DRIFTS EAST TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY. LOWER HEIGHTS AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO COASTAL
AND VALLEY ZONES...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN(!) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS EARLY SEASON STORM...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GLOOMY WEATHER ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL 105 KT JET WILL PASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IN THE FORM OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER TO 5000 FEET WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDED
LIFT OF THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL WILL TAKE PLACE WITH SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850 MB SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-20KTS FRIDAY EVENING SHIFT WEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF OROGRAPHICS HERE TOO.

PRECIP TOTALS...RAIN TOTALS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS INCH TO
AS MUCH AS A TENTH OF AN INCH THE COASTAL AND VALLEYS ZONES. A TENTH
TO A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN THE FAVORED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
290345Z...A FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 900-1200 FT MSL ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING...BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.
OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
850 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20-30 KT AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS MAY DEVELOP
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN FAVORED
SPOTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS











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