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000
FXUS66 KSGX 212155
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE.

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE.  WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THE LOCAL WRF IS STRONGER...SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
212100Z...FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THIS EVENING. VIS
OF 5-6 SM HZ IN INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15 KFT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW
THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING ON
WEDNESDAY.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THESE DAYS AS
WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE LOWEST DAY TIME HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 212155
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE.

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE.  WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THE LOCAL WRF IS STRONGER...SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
212100Z...FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THIS EVENING. VIS
OF 5-6 SM HZ IN INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15 KFT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW
THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING ON
WEDNESDAY.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THESE DAYS AS
WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE LOWEST DAY TIME HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 212155
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE.

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE.  WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THE LOCAL WRF IS STRONGER...SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
212100Z...FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THIS EVENING. VIS
OF 5-6 SM HZ IN INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15 KFT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW
THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING ON
WEDNESDAY.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THESE DAYS AS
WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE LOWEST DAY TIME HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 211734
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD...WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS TODAY.  A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY...AS THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MINOR WARNING NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH GREATER
WARMING ALOFT.  CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER...AND EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THIS LIKELY MEANS THAT THE LOCAL WRF WILL BE STRONGER...BUT
AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO WITH THESE
WINDS...AS IT APPEARS SOME SORT OF WIND PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
FIRE WEATHER...17







000
FXUS66 KSGX 211734
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD...WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS TODAY.  A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY...AS THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MINOR WARNING NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH GREATER
WARMING ALOFT.  CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER...AND EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THIS LIKELY MEANS THAT THE LOCAL WRF WILL BE STRONGER...BUT
AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO WITH THESE
WINDS...AS IT APPEARS SOME SORT OF WIND PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
FIRE WEATHER...17








000
FXUS66 KSGX 211143
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
345 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. SLOW COOLING WILL RETURN
ON SUNDAY. WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL SCATTER
OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT FLOW OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS...BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES...IN THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR THE RIDGETOPS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...COULD APPROACH
60 MPH...TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MUCH MORE
SO THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF EACH MODEL...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING SLOW COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
205 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE..SS











000
FXUS66 KSGX 211143
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
345 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. SLOW COOLING WILL RETURN
ON SUNDAY. WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL SCATTER
OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT FLOW OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS...BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES...IN THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR THE RIDGETOPS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...COULD APPROACH
60 MPH...TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MUCH MORE
SO THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF EACH MODEL...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING SLOW COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
205 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE..SS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 210440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
840 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MOIST LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO THIN ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. MORE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY...AND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. COOLER ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TODAY WAS REFLECTED IN
THE 0.97 INCH PW VALUE OF THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 7 PM PST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK OFFSHORE FROM
NV...BUT WERE 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS SUPPORTING LOCAL
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG 594 DM HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N/130W BY SUN EVENING. A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND NE OF THE HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 12Z TUE...HELPING TO
BUILD A COLD SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
COMBINATION OF FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOCAL MON NIGHT/TUE. MUCH
WARMER MON/TUE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY...DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE FLOW
RAPIDLY WARMS TOWARD THE COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON TUE
MORNING IN WIND PRONE AREAS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM.

THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE EASTPAC WILL SUBSIDE LATE WED/THU AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PACNW AND DIGS INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAY
BRING A FEW MARINE CLOUDS WITH IT. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN STILL WANTS
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOCAL...MAINLY THU NIGHT...
BUT FOR NOW THE DRY GFS SOLUTION IS FAVORED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
COOLER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

.ASTRONOMY...
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN AT 3:03 PM ON SUNDAY WITH
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TILTED AT ITS GREATEST ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
DIRECT RAYS OF THE SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
210430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
2500-3500 FEET MSL WILL AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH
15Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCT AFT 15Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WITH FOG REDUCING VIS WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12000
FEET THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.  THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS COASTAL SLOPES
MAY SEE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH.  HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THESE DAYS AS WELL...FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT BY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAINS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG







000
FXUS66 KSGX 210440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
840 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MOIST LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO THIN ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. MORE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY...AND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. COOLER ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TODAY WAS REFLECTED IN
THE 0.97 INCH PW VALUE OF THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 7 PM PST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK OFFSHORE FROM
NV...BUT WERE 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS SUPPORTING LOCAL
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG 594 DM HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N/130W BY SUN EVENING. A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND NE OF THE HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 12Z TUE...HELPING TO
BUILD A COLD SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
COMBINATION OF FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOCAL MON NIGHT/TUE. MUCH
WARMER MON/TUE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY...DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE FLOW
RAPIDLY WARMS TOWARD THE COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON TUE
MORNING IN WIND PRONE AREAS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM.

THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE EASTPAC WILL SUBSIDE LATE WED/THU AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PACNW AND DIGS INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAY
BRING A FEW MARINE CLOUDS WITH IT. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN STILL WANTS
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOCAL...MAINLY THU NIGHT...
BUT FOR NOW THE DRY GFS SOLUTION IS FAVORED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
COOLER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

.ASTRONOMY...
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN AT 3:03 PM ON SUNDAY WITH
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TILTED AT ITS GREATEST ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
DIRECT RAYS OF THE SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
210430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
2500-3500 FEET MSL WILL AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH
15Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCT AFT 15Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WITH FOG REDUCING VIS WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12000
FEET THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.  THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS COASTAL SLOPES
MAY SEE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH.  HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THESE DAYS AS WELL...FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT BY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAINS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG







000
FXUS66 KSGX 210440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
840 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MOIST LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO THIN ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. MORE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY...AND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. COOLER ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TODAY WAS REFLECTED IN
THE 0.97 INCH PW VALUE OF THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 7 PM PST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK OFFSHORE FROM
NV...BUT WERE 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS SUPPORTING LOCAL
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG 594 DM HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N/130W BY SUN EVENING. A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND NE OF THE HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 12Z TUE...HELPING TO
BUILD A COLD SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
COMBINATION OF FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOCAL MON NIGHT/TUE. MUCH
WARMER MON/TUE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY...DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE FLOW
RAPIDLY WARMS TOWARD THE COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON TUE
MORNING IN WIND PRONE AREAS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM.

THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE EASTPAC WILL SUBSIDE LATE WED/THU AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PACNW AND DIGS INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAY
BRING A FEW MARINE CLOUDS WITH IT. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN STILL WANTS
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOCAL...MAINLY THU NIGHT...
BUT FOR NOW THE DRY GFS SOLUTION IS FAVORED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
COOLER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

.ASTRONOMY...
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN AT 3:03 PM ON SUNDAY WITH
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TILTED AT ITS GREATEST ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
DIRECT RAYS OF THE SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
210430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
2500-3500 FEET MSL WILL AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH
15Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCT AFT 15Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WITH FOG REDUCING VIS WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12000
FEET THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.  THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS COASTAL SLOPES
MAY SEE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH.  HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THESE DAYS AS WELL...FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT BY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAINS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 202140
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
140 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GUSTY NORTHEAST WILL
ALSO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME COOLER CONDITIONS BY CHRISTMAS DAY
AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
HOWEVER...SOME MINOR WARMING AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SENDING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THERE ARE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THESE HIGH CLOUDS THAN THERE WERE
THIS MORNING...BUT THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS STILL THICK.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND PERIODS OF
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THIS RIDGE THAT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AS LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK FOR SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  OUR LOCAL WRF SHOWS 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SAN
DIEGO TO DAGGETT GRADIENT INCREASING TO 9 MBS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
IF THIS COMES TO PASS...THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS WOULD LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 65 TO 75 MPH RANGE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY
AND CHRISTMAS...MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN.  THE MODELS STILL VARY QUITE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS ARE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
SIMILAR.  THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE
MODELS...KEEPING ALL THE MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.  THE
12Z ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT IS NOW TIMING FOR LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE THE
ONES TO BELIEVE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THESE DAYS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AS WELL...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS WEAK TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
202130Z...SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS...WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 3000 FT MSL...MAY DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AERODROMES TONIGHT IS
LOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
130 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY
AND CREATE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.  THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS COASTAL SLOPES
MAY SEE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH.  HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THESE DAYS AS WELL...FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT BY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAINS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 202140
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
140 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GUSTY NORTHEAST WILL
ALSO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME COOLER CONDITIONS BY CHRISTMAS DAY
AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
HOWEVER...SOME MINOR WARMING AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SENDING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THERE ARE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THESE HIGH CLOUDS THAN THERE WERE
THIS MORNING...BUT THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS STILL THICK.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND PERIODS OF
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THIS RIDGE THAT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AS LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK FOR SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  OUR LOCAL WRF SHOWS 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SAN
DIEGO TO DAGGETT GRADIENT INCREASING TO 9 MBS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
IF THIS COMES TO PASS...THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS WOULD LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 65 TO 75 MPH RANGE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY
AND CHRISTMAS...MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN.  THE MODELS STILL VARY QUITE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS ARE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
SIMILAR.  THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE
MODELS...KEEPING ALL THE MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.  THE
12Z ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT IS NOW TIMING FOR LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE THE
ONES TO BELIEVE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THESE DAYS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AS WELL...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS WEAK TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
202130Z...SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS...WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 3000 FT MSL...MAY DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AERODROMES TONIGHT IS
LOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
130 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY
AND CREATE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.  THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS COASTAL SLOPES
MAY SEE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH.  HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THESE DAYS AS WELL...FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT BY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAINS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 201754
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
955 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GUSTY NORTHEAST WILL
ALSO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME COOLER CONDITIONS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
HOWEVER...SOME MINOR WARMING AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTREMELY MOISTURE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC THIS MORNING...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS IT REACHES
CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...A THICK HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN BLANKETING
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE STATE...WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE CLOUDS...SO HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT GREATER CLOUD COVER AND MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES A BIT...AS THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND PERIODS OF OFFSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
AROUND THIS RIDGE THAT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK FOR SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE
WINDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...SHOWING A DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE HIGH DESERT AND AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 850 MPH WINDS PUSHING 40 KTS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR LOCAL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT STRONGER WINDS BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN THIS RIDGE BY MIDWEEK...MOVING
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE AMONGST THEMSELVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  GIVEN THE INSIDE
TRACK THAT ALL THE RUNS ARE SHOWING...THINK THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.  THERE ARE
ALSO SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
201630Z...SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VERY PATCHY
STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 2500 FT
MSL...MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AERODROMES TONIGHT IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY
AND CREATE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 201754
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
955 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GUSTY NORTHEAST WILL
ALSO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME COOLER CONDITIONS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
HOWEVER...SOME MINOR WARMING AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTREMELY MOISTURE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC THIS MORNING...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS IT REACHES
CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...A THICK HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN BLANKETING
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE STATE...WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE CLOUDS...SO HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT GREATER CLOUD COVER AND MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES A BIT...AS THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND PERIODS OF OFFSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
AROUND THIS RIDGE THAT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK FOR SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE
WINDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...SHOWING A DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE HIGH DESERT AND AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 850 MPH WINDS PUSHING 40 KTS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR LOCAL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT STRONGER WINDS BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN THIS RIDGE BY MIDWEEK...MOVING
INLAND TO OUR NORTH AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE AMONGST THEMSELVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  GIVEN THE INSIDE
TRACK THAT ALL THE RUNS ARE SHOWING...THINK THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.  THERE ARE
ALSO SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
201630Z...SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VERY PATCHY
STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 2500 FT
MSL...MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AERODROMES TONIGHT IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY
AND CREATE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 201031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL
BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY INLAND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WITH PATCHY STRATUS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING
TODAY...AND GREATER WARMING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

A LITTLE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO
THE NORTH ON AN INLAND TRACK WITH THE GFS REMAINING LESS AMPLIFIED
AND THE ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAVING TRENDED A LITTLE MORE INLAND WITH THE TRACK. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING COOLING WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.

BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN/WHERE THEY DEVELOP...LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
06-12Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CIGS OF AROUND 2500 FEET
MSL APPEAR MORE LIKELY AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
201015Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL WEST OF THE
MTNS AND AREAS OF 2-4 SM VIS IN BR/HZ IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH 16Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 21/06Z. OTHERWISE VARIABLE
CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
220 AM...LOCAL COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FEET POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
220 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND
7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS













000
FXUS66 KSGX 201031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL
BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY INLAND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WITH PATCHY STRATUS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING
TODAY...AND GREATER WARMING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

A LITTLE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO
THE NORTH ON AN INLAND TRACK WITH THE GFS REMAINING LESS AMPLIFIED
AND THE ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAVING TRENDED A LITTLE MORE INLAND WITH THE TRACK. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING COOLING WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.

BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN/WHERE THEY DEVELOP...LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
06-12Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CIGS OF AROUND 2500 FEET
MSL APPEAR MORE LIKELY AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
201015Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL WEST OF THE
MTNS AND AREAS OF 2-4 SM VIS IN BR/HZ IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH 16Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 21/06Z. OTHERWISE VARIABLE
CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
220 AM...LOCAL COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FEET POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
220 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND
7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS












000
FXUS66 KSGX 200514
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
754 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR DRY AND WARMER
DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY GET GUSTY BELOW
THE CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE
CHRISTMAS DAY. COOLER...AND LIKELY REMAINING DRY ON CHRISTMAS AND
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AT 8 PM PST...WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT AND RADARS IN
THE AREA INDICATED NO PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATED MOST OF THE MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE WAS ABOVE 20K FT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SOCAL
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT...IT IS UNLIKELY
MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY
LAYER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN SOME MARINE
INFLUENCE AND CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND DRY.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REEMERGE OVER THE EASTPAC...
REACHING 590+ DM BY SUN...AND NOT WEAKENING UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM DAYS AND OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOCAL MON/
TUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON WED AS A SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE
RIDGE...AND BECOME ONSHORE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS...AND THE HIGH OFFSHORE WEAKENS.

WARMER SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING MON-WED AND TEMPERATURES SOME 7
TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME RETURN OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
IS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN FAIR.

THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION DOES DIG A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY THAT PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER AND DRY GFS SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED AND FOLLOWED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN/WHERE THEY DEVELOP...LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
06-12Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CIGS OF AROUND 2500 FEET
MSL APPEAR MORE LIKELY AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LARGE SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BUILD SATURDAY AND
BRING HIGHER SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM














000
FXUS66 KSGX 200514
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
754 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR DRY AND WARMER
DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY GET GUSTY BELOW
THE CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE
CHRISTMAS DAY. COOLER...AND LIKELY REMAINING DRY ON CHRISTMAS AND
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AT 8 PM PST...WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT AND RADARS IN
THE AREA INDICATED NO PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATED MOST OF THE MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE WAS ABOVE 20K FT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SOCAL
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT...IT IS UNLIKELY
MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY
LAYER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN SOME MARINE
INFLUENCE AND CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND DRY.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REEMERGE OVER THE EASTPAC...
REACHING 590+ DM BY SUN...AND NOT WEAKENING UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM DAYS AND OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOCAL MON/
TUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON WED AS A SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE
RIDGE...AND BECOME ONSHORE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS...AND THE HIGH OFFSHORE WEAKENS.

WARMER SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING MON-WED AND TEMPERATURES SOME 7
TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME RETURN OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
IS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN FAIR.

THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION DOES DIG A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY THAT PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER AND DRY GFS SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED AND FOLLOWED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN/WHERE THEY DEVELOP...LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
06-12Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CIGS OF AROUND 2500 FEET
MSL APPEAR MORE LIKELY AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LARGE SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BUILD SATURDAY AND
BRING HIGHER SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM













000
FXUS66 KSGX 200355
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
754 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR DRY AND WARMER
DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY GET GUSTY BELOW
THE CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE
CHRISTMAS DAY. COOLER...AND LIKELY REMAINING DRY ON CHRISTMAS AND
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AT 8 PM PST...WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT AND RADARS IN
THE AREA INDICATED NO PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATED MOST OF THE MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE WAS ABOVE 20K FT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SOCAL
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT...IT IS UNLIKELY
MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY
LAYER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN SOME MARINE
INFLUENCE AND CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND DRY.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REEMERGE OVER THE EASTPAC...
REACHING 590+ DM BY SUN...AND NOT WEAKENING UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM DAYS AND OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOCAL MON/
TUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON WED AS A SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE
RIDGE...AND BECOME ONSHORE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS...AND THE HIGH OFFSHORE WEAKENS.

WARMER SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING MON-WED AND TEMPERATURES SOME 7
TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME RETURN OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
IS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN FAIR.

THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION DOES DIG A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY THAT PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER AND DRY GFS SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED AND FOLLOWED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN/WHERE THEY DEVELOP...LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
06-12Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CIGS OF AROUND 2500 FEET
MSL APPEAR MORE LIKELY AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LARGE SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BUILD SATURDAY AND
BRING HIGHER SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 200355
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
754 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR DRY AND WARMER
DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY GET GUSTY BELOW
THE CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE
CHRISTMAS DAY. COOLER...AND LIKELY REMAINING DRY ON CHRISTMAS AND
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AT 8 PM PST...WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT AND RADARS IN
THE AREA INDICATED NO PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATED MOST OF THE MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE WAS ABOVE 20K FT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SOCAL
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT...IT IS UNLIKELY
MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY
LAYER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN SOME MARINE
INFLUENCE AND CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND DRY.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REEMERGE OVER THE EASTPAC...
REACHING 590+ DM BY SUN...AND NOT WEAKENING UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM DAYS AND OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOCAL MON/
TUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON WED AS A SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE
RIDGE...AND BECOME ONSHORE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS...AND THE HIGH OFFSHORE WEAKENS.

WARMER SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING MON-WED AND TEMPERATURES SOME 7
TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME RETURN OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
IS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN FAIR.

THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION DOES DIG A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY THAT PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER AND DRY GFS SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED AND FOLLOWED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN/WHERE THEY DEVELOP...LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
06-12Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CIGS OF AROUND 2500 FEET
MSL APPEAR MORE LIKELY AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LARGE SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BUILD SATURDAY AND
BRING HIGHER SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM











000
FXUS66 KSGX 200355
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
754 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR DRY AND WARMER
DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY GET GUSTY BELOW
THE CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE
CHRISTMAS DAY. COOLER...AND LIKELY REMAINING DRY ON CHRISTMAS AND
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AT 8 PM PST...WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT AND RADARS IN
THE AREA INDICATED NO PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATED MOST OF THE MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE WAS ABOVE 20K FT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SOCAL
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT...IT IS UNLIKELY
MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY
LAYER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN SOME MARINE
INFLUENCE AND CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND DRY.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REEMERGE OVER THE EASTPAC...
REACHING 590+ DM BY SUN...AND NOT WEAKENING UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM DAYS AND OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOCAL MON/
TUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON WED AS A SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE
RIDGE...AND BECOME ONSHORE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS...AND THE HIGH OFFSHORE WEAKENS.

WARMER SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING MON-WED AND TEMPERATURES SOME 7
TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME RETURN OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
IS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN FAIR.

THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION DOES DIG A STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY THAT PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER AND DRY GFS SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED AND FOLLOWED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN/WHERE THEY DEVELOP...LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
06-12Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CIGS OF AROUND 2500 FEET
MSL APPEAR MORE LIKELY AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LARGE SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL BUILD SATURDAY AND
BRING HIGHER SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 192145
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR MOUNTAIN FLURRIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WELL THESE
DAYS.  HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART...IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY OUT THERE.  IN FACT...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING UP TO 4 DEGREES WARMER MOST PLACES.  WITH THIS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP QUITE AS MUCH AS THE DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
TOMORROW MORNING.  THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO
BE WITH THE THREAT OF SOME SPRINKLES.  AT THIS TIME...ALL BUT ONE OF
THE 12Z MODELS BACKED OFF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION
MAKING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.  FOR THIS REASON...THINK THAT ANY
REAL SHOWERS WILL BE UNLIKELY...BUT GIVEN THE 1 INCH PW PLUME OUT
THERE...THINK THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR MOUNTAIN FLURRIES CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT EITHER.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR SUNDAY
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BY TUESDAY...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND RELATED
PRODUCTS...AS A MODERATE SANTA ANA MAY DEVELOP.

THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE
MODELS...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.  MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...FLIP
FLOPPING FROM RUN TO RUN.  THE 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE IDEA OF RAIN
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON CHRISTMAS...BUT THE SHARP TRAJECTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM MAKES THAT LOOK SOMEWHAT SUSPICIOUS.  THE 12Z GEM LOOKS
EVEN FURTHER OUT TO LUNCH...BRINGING A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  THEREFORE...HAVE DISCARDED THE LATTER
TWO MODELS AS LOGICALLY POSSIBILITIES...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTION.  THAT BEING SAID...COOLER CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
192100Z...SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS LOW. VIS
OF 3-5 SM BR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOW-LYING VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A 6-7 FT/17 SEC PERIOD W SWELL ARRIVING SATURDAY WILL
CREATE ELEVATED SURF ALONG WESTERLY-FACING BEACHES...MAINLY IN
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. SURF OF 4 TO 7
FEET...WITH ISOLATED SETS TO 8 FEET...IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SURF LOWERING THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING HIGH
TIDES AROUND 7 FEET...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SURF...MAY CREATE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND TIDAL OVERFLOW. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
LATE TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 192145
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR MOUNTAIN FLURRIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WELL THESE
DAYS.  HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART...IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY OUT THERE.  IN FACT...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING UP TO 4 DEGREES WARMER MOST PLACES.  WITH THIS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP QUITE AS MUCH AS THE DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
TOMORROW MORNING.  THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO
BE WITH THE THREAT OF SOME SPRINKLES.  AT THIS TIME...ALL BUT ONE OF
THE 12Z MODELS BACKED OFF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION
MAKING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.  FOR THIS REASON...THINK THAT ANY
REAL SHOWERS WILL BE UNLIKELY...BUT GIVEN THE 1 INCH PW PLUME OUT
THERE...THINK THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR MOUNTAIN FLURRIES CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT EITHER.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR SUNDAY
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BY TUESDAY...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND RELATED
PRODUCTS...AS A MODERATE SANTA ANA MAY DEVELOP.

THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE
MODELS...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.  MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...FLIP
FLOPPING FROM RUN TO RUN.  THE 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE IDEA OF RAIN
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON CHRISTMAS...BUT THE SHARP TRAJECTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM MAKES THAT LOOK SOMEWHAT SUSPICIOUS.  THE 12Z GEM LOOKS
EVEN FURTHER OUT TO LUNCH...BRINGING A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  THEREFORE...HAVE DISCARDED THE LATTER
TWO MODELS AS LOGICALLY POSSIBILITIES...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTION.  THAT BEING SAID...COOLER CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
192100Z...SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS LOW. VIS
OF 3-5 SM BR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOW-LYING VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A 6-7 FT/17 SEC PERIOD W SWELL ARRIVING SATURDAY WILL
CREATE ELEVATED SURF ALONG WESTERLY-FACING BEACHES...MAINLY IN
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. SURF OF 4 TO 7
FEET...WITH ISOLATED SETS TO 8 FEET...IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SURF LOWERING THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING HIGH
TIDES AROUND 7 FEET...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SURF...MAY CREATE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND TIDAL OVERFLOW. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
LATE TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 191704
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
905 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRING A MINOR WARMING TREND TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT WILL GIVE WAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WELL THESE DAYS.
HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...WITH A
TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH RELATIVELY SUNNY
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS PREVAILING...FOLLOWING THE
CHILLY START TO THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE TAIL END OF THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.  AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE BACKING
OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND OVER THE BIGHT.  WILL AWAIT THE REST OF THE MODELS
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AS CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THAT A STRAY SHOWER WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR SUNDAY
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BY TUESDAY...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND RELATED
PRODUCTS...AS A MODERATE SANTA ANA MAY DEVELOP.

THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE
MODELS...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.  MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...FLIP
FLOPPING FROM RUN TO RUN.  THE LATEST RUN ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCES THE
IDEA OF RAIN FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON CHRISTMAS.  THE 00Z
GEM...SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF
THE ECMWF OVER THE RECENT DAYS AND PAST STORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION OF THE GFS.  EITHER WAY...EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
191600Z...SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BKN/OVC LOW
CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS LOW. VIS OF 3-5 SM BR IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOW-LYING VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...A 6-7 FT/17 SEC PERIOD W-NW SWELL ARRIVING SATURDAY WILL
CREATE ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF ALONG WESTERLY-FACING BEACHES...MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. SURF OF 4
TO 7 FEET...WITH ISOLATED SETS TO 8 FEET...IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7
FEET...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SURF...MAY CREATE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND TIDAL OVERFLOW. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON
MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 191704
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
905 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRING A MINOR WARMING TREND TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT WILL GIVE WAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WELL THESE DAYS.
HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...WITH A
TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH RELATIVELY SUNNY
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS PREVAILING...FOLLOWING THE
CHILLY START TO THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE TAIL END OF THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.  AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE BACKING
OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND OVER THE BIGHT.  WILL AWAIT THE REST OF THE MODELS
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AS CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THAT A STRAY SHOWER WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR SUNDAY
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BY TUESDAY...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND RELATED
PRODUCTS...AS A MODERATE SANTA ANA MAY DEVELOP.

THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE
MODELS...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.  MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...FLIP
FLOPPING FROM RUN TO RUN.  THE LATEST RUN ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCES THE
IDEA OF RAIN FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON CHRISTMAS.  THE 00Z
GEM...SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF
THE ECMWF OVER THE RECENT DAYS AND PAST STORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION OF THE GFS.  EITHER WAY...EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
191600Z...SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BKN/OVC LOW
CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS LOW. VIS OF 3-5 SM BR IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOW-LYING VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...A 6-7 FT/17 SEC PERIOD W-NW SWELL ARRIVING SATURDAY WILL
CREATE ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF ALONG WESTERLY-FACING BEACHES...MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. SURF OF 4
TO 7 FEET...WITH ISOLATED SETS TO 8 FEET...IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7
FEET...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SURF...MAY CREATE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND TIDAL OVERFLOW. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON
MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 191142
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
342 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
EXPANDS OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND
MUCH WARMER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER BY CHRISTMAS
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS OUR REGION
ATTM. WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMED A FEW HOURS AGO BUT VISIBILITY HAS SINCE
PARTIALLY IMPROVED.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SAN DIEGO AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. AT THIS TIME THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE IN ORANGE COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE...HOWEVER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD SEE
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONTINUED BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
STILL OCCUR IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TRACK.

AFTER SATURDAY...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NUDGE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AROUND 593
DM. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE SUNDAY...INITIALLY FROM
THE NORTH AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
MAY BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME NOTED
WARMING THROUGH THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE HIGH
DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE. TEMPERATURES
STILL ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING DETAILS OF THE
INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE EAST PAC
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE BRINGING
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME DIURNAL BREEZES...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOW LOOK TO BE QUITE LOW WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION
DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. BEYOND CHRISTMAS DAY...A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AND
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
191020Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT MSL AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
VIS 3SM OR LESS IN BR/FG IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE
VIS REMAINING UNRESTRICTED. SCT-BKN STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT
MSL DEVELOPING AFTER 20/00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
225 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...PEAKING LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
AT 8 FT WITH A 16-18 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE ELEVATED
TO MARGINALLY HIGH SURF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGHEST IN
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. MORNING
HIGH TIDES IN EXCESS OF 7 FEET MAY RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
SUNDAY MORNING. SWELL AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED SURF AND LARGE TIDAL SWINGS WILL GENERATE STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 191142
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
342 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
EXPANDS OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND
MUCH WARMER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER BY CHRISTMAS
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS OUR REGION
ATTM. WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMED A FEW HOURS AGO BUT VISIBILITY HAS SINCE
PARTIALLY IMPROVED.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SAN DIEGO AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. AT THIS TIME THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE IN ORANGE COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE...HOWEVER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD SEE
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONTINUED BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
STILL OCCUR IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TRACK.

AFTER SATURDAY...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NUDGE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AROUND 593
DM. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE SUNDAY...INITIALLY FROM
THE NORTH AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
MAY BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL BRING SOME NOTED
WARMING THROUGH THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE HIGH
DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE. TEMPERATURES
STILL ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING DETAILS OF THE
INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE EAST PAC
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE BRINGING
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME DIURNAL BREEZES...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOW LOOK TO BE QUITE LOW WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION
DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. BEYOND CHRISTMAS DAY...A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AND
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
191020Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT MSL AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
VIS 3SM OR LESS IN BR/FG IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE
VIS REMAINING UNRESTRICTED. SCT-BKN STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT
MSL DEVELOPING AFTER 20/00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
225 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...PEAKING LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
AT 8 FT WITH A 16-18 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE ELEVATED
TO MARGINALLY HIGH SURF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGHEST IN
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. MORNING
HIGH TIDES IN EXCESS OF 7 FEET MAY RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
SUNDAY MORNING. SWELL AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED SURF AND LARGE TIDAL SWINGS WILL GENERATE STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 190354
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
755 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT FAIR...DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A LARGE UPPER
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER BY CHRISTMAS AND
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND LAYERS OF THICK CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND WINDS LIGHT. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING STILL INDICATED A MOIST LAYER UP THROUGH ABOUT 9K FT SO
EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ALL THE WAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT...
THEN TURN OFFSHORE SUN AND MON..SHRINKING THE MARINE LAYER BACK TO
THE COASTAL AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE MON/TUE...WITH SOME SPOTS EXPECTED TO BE AS
MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK SIMILAR INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH ABOUT NEXT FRI...THEN FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
190330Z...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
SCT-BKN BASES MOSTLY 5000-7000 FT MSL WITH LAYERS UP TO 20000 FT
MSL. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN 5+ MILES EXCEPT WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE..MAXWELL












000
FXUS66 KSGX 190354
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
755 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT FAIR...DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A LARGE UPPER
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER BY CHRISTMAS AND
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND LAYERS OF THICK CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND WINDS LIGHT. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING STILL INDICATED A MOIST LAYER UP THROUGH ABOUT 9K FT SO
EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ALL THE WAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT...
THEN TURN OFFSHORE SUN AND MON..SHRINKING THE MARINE LAYER BACK TO
THE COASTAL AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE MON/TUE...WITH SOME SPOTS EXPECTED TO BE AS
MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK SIMILAR INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH ABOUT NEXT FRI...THEN FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
190330Z...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
SCT-BKN BASES MOSTLY 5000-7000 FT MSL WITH LAYERS UP TO 20000 FT
MSL. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN 5+ MILES EXCEPT WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE..MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KSGX 190354
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
755 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT FAIR...DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A LARGE UPPER
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER BY CHRISTMAS AND
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND LAYERS OF THICK CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND WINDS LIGHT. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING STILL INDICATED A MOIST LAYER UP THROUGH ABOUT 9K FT SO
EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ALL THE WAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT...
THEN TURN OFFSHORE SUN AND MON..SHRINKING THE MARINE LAYER BACK TO
THE COASTAL AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE MON/TUE...WITH SOME SPOTS EXPECTED TO BE AS
MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK SIMILAR INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH ABOUT NEXT FRI...THEN FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
190330Z...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
SCT-BKN BASES MOSTLY 5000-7000 FT MSL WITH LAYERS UP TO 20000 FT
MSL. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN 5+ MILES EXCEPT WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE..MAXWELL












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