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000
FXUS66 KSGX 201038
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INLAND WARMING THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER KEEPS COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST
BRINGING COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEAKER WINDS AND MODEST
WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LESS
CERTAINTY ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING INLAND WARMING AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW MULTIPLE
INVERSIONS...ONE NEAR 2500 FEET AND A SECOND LOWER ONE NEAR 1500
FEET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENING...THE LOWER INVERSION
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AND
EXTEND INLAND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...STRATUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER...BUT NOT
EXTEND QUITE AS FAR INLAND.

FOR TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
WEST COAST...STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING
COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ADVISORY STRENGTH WIND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEST WARMING AND WEATHER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A STRONGER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH CONTINUING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE (STRENGTH). IT WILL BRING
COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. FOR THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH GREATER
AMPLITUDE...PRECIPITATION WOULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR THOSE WITH LESSER AMPLITUDE...THE PRECIPITATION
WOULD MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
201015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL OCCUR WITHIN 20 MI
OF THE COAST THROUGH 18Z. BASES WILL BE 1000 TO 1500 FT MSL WITH
TOPS TO 2000 FT. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. LOCAL STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITHIN 15 MI OF THE COAST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
BASES AND SOME VIS REDUCTIONS TO 2 TO 4 MI...LOCALLY LOWER.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND GUSTS OF 15-25 KT OVER
THE INNER WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A 6-8 FOOT
SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 201038
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INLAND WARMING THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER KEEPS COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST
BRINGING COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEAKER WINDS AND MODEST
WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LESS
CERTAINTY ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING INLAND WARMING AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW MULTIPLE
INVERSIONS...ONE NEAR 2500 FEET AND A SECOND LOWER ONE NEAR 1500
FEET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENING...THE LOWER INVERSION
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AND
EXTEND INLAND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...STRATUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER...BUT NOT
EXTEND QUITE AS FAR INLAND.

FOR TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
WEST COAST...STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING
COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ADVISORY STRENGTH WIND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEST WARMING AND WEATHER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A STRONGER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH CONTINUING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE (STRENGTH). IT WILL BRING
COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. FOR THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH GREATER
AMPLITUDE...PRECIPITATION WOULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR THOSE WITH LESSER AMPLITUDE...THE PRECIPITATION
WOULD MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
201015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL OCCUR WITHIN 20 MI
OF THE COAST THROUGH 18Z. BASES WILL BE 1000 TO 1500 FT MSL WITH
TOPS TO 2000 FT. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. LOCAL STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITHIN 15 MI OF THE COAST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
BASES AND SOME VIS REDUCTIONS TO 2 TO 4 MI...LOCALLY LOWER.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND GUSTS OF 15-25 KT OVER
THE INNER WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A 6-8 FOOT
SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL












000
FXUS66 KSGX 200409
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
909 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMING THROUGH MONDAY. LATER MONDAY...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL REBUILD THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHARP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC.
MUCH COOLER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST...WITH
MODEST WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND NEXT WEEKEND...
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...COOLING...
AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOCAL THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CUMULUS DEVELOPED AND EVEN LEAKED A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS. AT 9 PM PDT SKIES WERE CLEAR INLAND...BUT CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE...MARINE CLOUDS WERE REDEVELOPING. THE 00Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A WEAK 3 DEGREE C INVERSION BASE NEAR 2400 FT.
AND STILL A RESPECTABLE PW OF 0.84 INCH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE RUNNING 4-7 MBS ONSHORE AND WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE DESERTS.

LOOKS LIKE SOME FINE WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. EXPECT AREAS OF
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY
RAPID CLEARING AND PLEASANT DAYTIME HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST...TO THE MID 80S OVER THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND HIGH DESERTS.
THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD CRACK 90 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SW ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTPAC. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE COAST ON MON...AND SWING EAST OVER THE STATE ON TUE...CREATING
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER. THE TOUGH WILL
MOVE EAST AS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTPAC LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE MODEST HEIGHT/THICKNESS RECOVERY WILL BRING SLIGHT
WARMING ON THU BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE
LAYER REBUILDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTPAC INTO
THE PACNW AND NOCAL LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG
POLAR JET IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 40N. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THAT FLOW IS INDICATED SO MOST...
IF NOT ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
HERE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEK...HOPEFULLY THE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD WILL NARROW ALLOWING CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE REGARDING WHERE
AND WHEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR. EVEN WITHOUT THE PRECIP...EXPECT SEVERAL
DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS IN OUR MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
200330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL. ESTIMATED
TIMING OF STRATUS AT KSAN AND KCRQ IS BTWN 04-07Z...AND AT KSNA BTWN
09-12Z. MOSTLY CLEAR AT KONT WITH VIS 4-5SM BR/HZ BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
SUNDAY. STRATUS CLEARING FROM COASTAL AIRPORTS BTWN 16-18Z SUNDAY.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLDS AOA 12000 FT MSL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND GUSTS OF 15-25 KT OVER
THE INNER WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A 7-9 FOOT
SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO BRING HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (WINDS 21 TO 33KT AND/OR WAVES 6 FEET OR
GREATER) FOR THE OUTER WATERS...AND LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE INNER
WATERS.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE










000
FXUS66 KSGX 200409
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
909 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMING THROUGH MONDAY. LATER MONDAY...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL REBUILD THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHARP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC.
MUCH COOLER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST...WITH
MODEST WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND NEXT WEEKEND...
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...COOLING...
AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOCAL THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CUMULUS DEVELOPED AND EVEN LEAKED A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS. AT 9 PM PDT SKIES WERE CLEAR INLAND...BUT CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE...MARINE CLOUDS WERE REDEVELOPING. THE 00Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A WEAK 3 DEGREE C INVERSION BASE NEAR 2400 FT.
AND STILL A RESPECTABLE PW OF 0.84 INCH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE RUNNING 4-7 MBS ONSHORE AND WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE DESERTS.

LOOKS LIKE SOME FINE WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. EXPECT AREAS OF
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY
RAPID CLEARING AND PLEASANT DAYTIME HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST...TO THE MID 80S OVER THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND HIGH DESERTS.
THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD CRACK 90 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SW ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTPAC. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE COAST ON MON...AND SWING EAST OVER THE STATE ON TUE...CREATING
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER. THE TOUGH WILL
MOVE EAST AS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTPAC LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE MODEST HEIGHT/THICKNESS RECOVERY WILL BRING SLIGHT
WARMING ON THU BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE
LAYER REBUILDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTPAC INTO
THE PACNW AND NOCAL LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG
POLAR JET IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 40N. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THAT FLOW IS INDICATED SO MOST...
IF NOT ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
HERE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEK...HOPEFULLY THE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD WILL NARROW ALLOWING CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE REGARDING WHERE
AND WHEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR. EVEN WITHOUT THE PRECIP...EXPECT SEVERAL
DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS IN OUR MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
200330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL. ESTIMATED
TIMING OF STRATUS AT KSAN AND KCRQ IS BTWN 04-07Z...AND AT KSNA BTWN
09-12Z. MOSTLY CLEAR AT KONT WITH VIS 4-5SM BR/HZ BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
SUNDAY. STRATUS CLEARING FROM COASTAL AIRPORTS BTWN 16-18Z SUNDAY.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLDS AOA 12000 FT MSL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND GUSTS OF 15-25 KT OVER
THE INNER WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A 7-9 FOOT
SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO BRING HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (WINDS 21 TO 33KT AND/OR WAVES 6 FEET OR
GREATER) FOR THE OUTER WATERS...AND LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE INNER
WATERS.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE











000
FXUS66 KSGX 192025
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING BUILDUPS AND A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND AS WELL AS A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONG WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.  A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRING SOME MODEST WARMING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE COOLING AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION.  THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE BUILD UPS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...AND WITH THE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION...AM DOUBTFUL
WE WILL GET MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER A BEST.  CURRENTLY...THE ONLY
RADAR RETURNS ARE EAST OF THE SALTON SEA AND NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER
BASIN.  OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING TO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST.  THIS TREND MAY HOLD
TRUE...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO THE MARINE
LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE.  THEREFORE...THINK
THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY PUSH INLAND...BUT THEN AT LEAST
PARTIALLY DISSIPATE...BEFORE REFORMING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE AND MORE
SHALLOW...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION FALLING TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
FEET TONIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WHICH COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE MODERATED BY THE SHALLOW AND PATCHY MARINE LAYER.  THE
MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO REDUCE IN DEPTH AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY...AND POTENTIALLY DENSE...FOG POSSIBLE
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE COOLING TO THE REGION AS
WELL AS INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN.  THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AS WELL...PUSHING BACK INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THAT BEING SAID...IT
APPEARS THAT ALL THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH.  THEREFORE...THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH THOUGH WILL BE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS.  IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT
STRONG AND WEST WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THESE DAYS...WITH BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE IN
THE DESERTS.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
MODEST WARMING POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.  FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...ALONG WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS.  AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS
TROUGH MAY TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.  FOR NOW...IT IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH?  UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THIS FAR SOUTH...LIMITING ANY CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO JUST MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE...BUT AT LEAST IT APPEARS
THAT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT
SOAKING BEFORE THIS SPRING ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
192022Z...COAST/VALLEYS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW CLDS 1500-3000 FT
MSL THROUGH 20/0000 UTC. 20/0000-1500 UTC...PATCHY STRATUS GRADUALLY
FORMING WITHIN 15-20 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND
TOPS 1200-1600 FT MSL. TIMING OF STRATUS OCCURRENCE FOR KSAN...KCRQ
AND KSNA IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS.
EXPECT LOCAL VIS 3-5SM BR. CLEARING OF STRATUS 20/1600-1800 UTC.

MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLDS AOA 12000 FT MSL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
VIS WILL BE MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR THE MTNS THROUGH 2300 UTC WHICH MAY BRING LOCAL
VIS AOB 5SM...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS TO 35 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND GUSTS IN
THE INNER WATERS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH A 7-9 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO LIKELY BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS...AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON








000
FXUS66 KSGX 192025
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING BUILDUPS AND A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND AS WELL AS A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONG WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.  A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRING SOME MODEST WARMING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE COOLING AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION.  THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE BUILD UPS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...AND WITH THE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION...AM DOUBTFUL
WE WILL GET MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER A BEST.  CURRENTLY...THE ONLY
RADAR RETURNS ARE EAST OF THE SALTON SEA AND NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER
BASIN.  OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING TO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST.  THIS TREND MAY HOLD
TRUE...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO THE MARINE
LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE.  THEREFORE...THINK
THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY PUSH INLAND...BUT THEN AT LEAST
PARTIALLY DISSIPATE...BEFORE REFORMING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE AND MORE
SHALLOW...WITH THE MARINE INVERSION FALLING TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
FEET TONIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WHICH COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE MODERATED BY THE SHALLOW AND PATCHY MARINE LAYER.  THE
MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO REDUCE IN DEPTH AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY...AND POTENTIALLY DENSE...FOG POSSIBLE
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE COOLING TO THE REGION AS
WELL AS INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN.  THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AS WELL...PUSHING BACK INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THAT BEING SAID...IT
APPEARS THAT ALL THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH.  THEREFORE...THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH THOUGH WILL BE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS.  IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT
STRONG AND WEST WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THESE DAYS...WITH BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE IN
THE DESERTS.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
MODEST WARMING POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.  FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...ALONG WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS.  AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS
TROUGH MAY TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.  FOR NOW...IT IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH?  UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THIS FAR SOUTH...LIMITING ANY CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO JUST MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE...BUT AT LEAST IT APPEARS
THAT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT
SOAKING BEFORE THIS SPRING ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
192022Z...COAST/VALLEYS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW CLDS 1500-3000 FT
MSL THROUGH 20/0000 UTC. 20/0000-1500 UTC...PATCHY STRATUS GRADUALLY
FORMING WITHIN 15-20 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND
TOPS 1200-1600 FT MSL. TIMING OF STRATUS OCCURRENCE FOR KSAN...KCRQ
AND KSNA IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS.
EXPECT LOCAL VIS 3-5SM BR. CLEARING OF STRATUS 20/1600-1800 UTC.

MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLDS AOA 12000 FT MSL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
VIS WILL BE MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR THE MTNS THROUGH 2300 UTC WHICH MAY BRING LOCAL
VIS AOB 5SM...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS TO 35 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND GUSTS IN
THE INNER WATERS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH A 7-9 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO LIKELY BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS...AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 191600
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING BUILDUPS AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.  A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND AS WELL AS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRONG WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.  A TRANSITORY RIDGE
WILL BRING SOME MODEST WARMING FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BRING MORE COOLING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THIS MORNING....AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE DIGS ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE PREDOMINATELY CLEAR AND SUNNY
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A FEW LOW
CLOUDS REFORMING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SINCE SUNRISE...WITH THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING SHOWING A
MARINE INVERSION AROUND 3100 FEET.  THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.8 INCHES...WITH THE POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...DRY AND WARMER WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HOWEVER...A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.  THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW EACH NIGHT...FALLING TO BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT AND THEN FALLING EVEN MORE BY MONDAY
MORNING.  THEREFORE...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
STRIP.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE COOLING TO THE REGION AS
WELL AS INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN.  THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AS WELL...PUSHING BACK INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THAT BEING SAID...IT
APPEARS THAT ALL THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH.  THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE EVEN LOOKS SLIM...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE.  THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH THOUGH WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS.  IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG AND
WEST WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THESE DAYS...WITH BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...A
TRANSITORY AND WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS
WILL BRING SOME MODEST WARMING TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS
AGAIN AS WELL AS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH MAY TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.  FOR NOW...IT IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT AT LEAST IT
APPEARS THAT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COULD SEE ANOTHER
DECENT SOAKING BEFORE THIS SPRING ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
191520Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHES OF BKN-OVC STRATUS OVER SOUTHWEST
SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN THE 2000-3000 FT MSL LAYER WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
THROUGH 1900 UTC. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLDS
2000-3000 FT MSL THROUGH 20/0000 UTC. 20/0000-1500 UTC...PATCHY
STRATUS GRADUALLY FORMING WITHIN 15-20 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES
800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1200-1600 FT MSL. TIMING OF STRATUS
OCCURRENCE FOR KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS. EXPECT LOCAL VIS 3-5SM BR.

MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLDS AOA 12000 FT MSL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
VIS WILL BE MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR THE MTNS DURING THE 1800-2300 UTC TIME-PERIOD
WHICH MAY BRING LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY GUSTY SFC
WINDS TO 35 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND GUSTS IN
THE INNER WATERS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH A 7-9 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO LIKELY BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS...AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON








000
FXUS66 KSGX 191600
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING BUILDUPS AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.  A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND AS WELL AS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRONG WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.  A TRANSITORY RIDGE
WILL BRING SOME MODEST WARMING FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BRING MORE COOLING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THIS MORNING....AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE DIGS ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE PREDOMINATELY CLEAR AND SUNNY
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A FEW LOW
CLOUDS REFORMING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SINCE SUNRISE...WITH THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING SHOWING A
MARINE INVERSION AROUND 3100 FEET.  THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.8 INCHES...WITH THE POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...DRY AND WARMER WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HOWEVER...A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.  THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW EACH NIGHT...FALLING TO BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT AND THEN FALLING EVEN MORE BY MONDAY
MORNING.  THEREFORE...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
STRIP.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE COOLING TO THE REGION AS
WELL AS INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN.  THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AS WELL...PUSHING BACK INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THAT BEING SAID...IT
APPEARS THAT ALL THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH.  THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE EVEN LOOKS SLIM...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE.  THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH THOUGH WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS.  IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG AND
WEST WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THESE DAYS...WITH BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...A
TRANSITORY AND WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS
WILL BRING SOME MODEST WARMING TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS
AGAIN AS WELL AS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH MAY TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.  FOR NOW...IT IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT AT LEAST IT
APPEARS THAT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COULD SEE ANOTHER
DECENT SOAKING BEFORE THIS SPRING ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
191520Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHES OF BKN-OVC STRATUS OVER SOUTHWEST
SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN THE 2000-3000 FT MSL LAYER WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
THROUGH 1900 UTC. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLDS
2000-3000 FT MSL THROUGH 20/0000 UTC. 20/0000-1500 UTC...PATCHY
STRATUS GRADUALLY FORMING WITHIN 15-20 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES
800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1200-1600 FT MSL. TIMING OF STRATUS
OCCURRENCE FOR KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS. EXPECT LOCAL VIS 3-5SM BR.

MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLDS AOA 12000 FT MSL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
VIS WILL BE MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR THE MTNS DURING THE 1800-2300 UTC TIME-PERIOD
WHICH MAY BRING LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY GUSTY SFC
WINDS TO 35 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND GUSTS IN
THE INNER WATERS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH A 7-9 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO LIKELY BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS...AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 191033
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
335 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND WITH
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST BRINGING COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEAKER WINDS AND
MODEST WARMING FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN ANOTHER STRONGER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH
DECREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. COVERAGE OF
COASTAL STRATUS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY PATCHY WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST AND
VALLEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
RETAINED. DRY WITH AN INLAND WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER
WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING
COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND STRONG GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND
DUST IN THE DESERTS. MODEST INLAND WARMING AND WEAKER WINDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BRING COOLING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
191030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH 16-18Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH MOST CLOUDS SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KCRQ TO KRNM. BASES WILL BE 2500-3000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO
3500 FT MSL. ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE MTS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND
PATCHY STRATUS...BELOW 2000 FT MSL. MOST VIS WILL BE GREATER THAN 5
MILES.

MTNS/DESERTS...CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY BE AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS
MAINLY 19Z-01Z...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS TO 35 KT NEAR
SHOWERS/VIRGA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. MOST VIS WILL BE
GREATER THAN 5 MILES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE WINDS WILL PEAK TUESDAY EVENING WITH PEAK GUSTS OF
25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE
INNER WATERS OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A 6-8 FOOT
SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KSGX 190353
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
853 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN
EACH NIGHT...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED EACH DAY. IT WILL BE WARMER
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BREEZY AND SHARPLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TO END THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM FOR CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WE GOT AN EARLY TASTE OF THE SUMMER MONSOON TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS
ERUPTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. REMOTE RAIN
GAGE REPORTS INDICATED UP TO 0.42 INCH...BUT RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED
AMOUNTS APPROACHING AND EVEN EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN SPOTS IN THE
SANTA ROSA AND SAN YSIDRO MTNS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.
THE ACTIVITY HAS LONG SINCE DIED OFF WITH THE SETTING SUN. OUTFLOW
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES FROM THE ACTIVITY FANNED OUT INTO THE COACHELLA
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WITH ACCUMULATING RAIN REPORTED NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ON THE VALLEY FLOOR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...
AND HIGHER CLOUDS WELL INLAND ACROSS THE DESERTS. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING STILL HAD A PW OF 0.75 INCH...AND A WEAK 3 DEGREE C
INVERSION BASED NEAR 3K FT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING
3-5 MBS ONSHORE AT 03Z.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SAT. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THEN BURN OFF
BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON SAT. WARMER
ON SUN/MON...ESPECIALLY INLAND...AS THE MARINE LAYER THINS UNDER A
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. ANY THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHES
FURTHER UNDER INCREASING STABILITY ALOFT.

MODELS HAVE KEYED IN ON A SHARP RIDGE TO APPROACH THE COAST MON
NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH CA TUE. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AS A
997 MB SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NV/UT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS/GUSTS OVER THE MTNS AND INTO THE DESERTS...A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...AND MUCH COOLER DAYS TUE/WED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS COULD WELL EXCEED 55 MPH BY TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH DESERT.

THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTPAC. IN THE INTERIM...
HEIGHTS/ THICKNESS WILL REBOUND MODESTLY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYS.
THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT FROM RECENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE YET-TO-DEVELOP EASTPAC TROUGH. IF LATER
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND REMAIN CLOSE...IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT LATE-SEASON PRECIP PRODUCER ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
190330Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTN COASTAL SLOPES...STRATUS SCT-BKN020-030
SLOWLY FILLING IN AND BECOMING BKN-OVC020-030 TOPS 035 OVER THE
COASTAL BASIN THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. CLEARING OF STRATUS BETWEEN
15-19Z.

ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER SCT-BKN150-250 THROUGH 18Z...BECOMING
SCT150-250 AFTER 18Z.

MTNS AND DESERTS...SCT-BKN080-150 BETWEEN 18Z-24Z SATURDAY WITH SLT
CHC OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA WITH BRIEF DOWNDRAFT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE WINDS WILL PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
PEAK GUSTS OF 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. PEAK GUSTS OVER THE INNER
WATERS OF 20 KT. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH AN 8-10 FOOT
SHORT-PERIOD SWELL WILL BE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE













000
FXUS66 KSGX 190353
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
853 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT LEAVE
BEHIND SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN
EACH NIGHT...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED EACH DAY. IT WILL BE WARMER
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BREEZY AND SHARPLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TO END THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM FOR CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WE GOT AN EARLY TASTE OF THE SUMMER MONSOON TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS
ERUPTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. REMOTE RAIN
GAGE REPORTS INDICATED UP TO 0.42 INCH...BUT RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED
AMOUNTS APPROACHING AND EVEN EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN SPOTS IN THE
SANTA ROSA AND SAN YSIDRO MTNS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.
THE ACTIVITY HAS LONG SINCE DIED OFF WITH THE SETTING SUN. OUTFLOW
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES FROM THE ACTIVITY FANNED OUT INTO THE COACHELLA
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WITH ACCUMULATING RAIN REPORTED NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ON THE VALLEY FLOOR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...
AND HIGHER CLOUDS WELL INLAND ACROSS THE DESERTS. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING STILL HAD A PW OF 0.75 INCH...AND A WEAK 3 DEGREE C
INVERSION BASED NEAR 3K FT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING
3-5 MBS ONSHORE AT 03Z.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SAT. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THEN BURN OFF
BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON SAT. WARMER
ON SUN/MON...ESPECIALLY INLAND...AS THE MARINE LAYER THINS UNDER A
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. ANY THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHES
FURTHER UNDER INCREASING STABILITY ALOFT.

MODELS HAVE KEYED IN ON A SHARP RIDGE TO APPROACH THE COAST MON
NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH CA TUE. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AS A
997 MB SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NV/UT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS/GUSTS OVER THE MTNS AND INTO THE DESERTS...A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...AND MUCH COOLER DAYS TUE/WED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS COULD WELL EXCEED 55 MPH BY TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH DESERT.

THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTPAC. IN THE INTERIM...
HEIGHTS/ THICKNESS WILL REBOUND MODESTLY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYS.
THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT FROM RECENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE YET-TO-DEVELOP EASTPAC TROUGH. IF LATER
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND REMAIN CLOSE...IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT LATE-SEASON PRECIP PRODUCER ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
190330Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTN COASTAL SLOPES...STRATUS SCT-BKN020-030
SLOWLY FILLING IN AND BECOMING BKN-OVC020-030 TOPS 035 OVER THE
COASTAL BASIN THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. CLEARING OF STRATUS BETWEEN
15-19Z.

ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER SCT-BKN150-250 THROUGH 18Z...BECOMING
SCT150-250 AFTER 18Z.

MTNS AND DESERTS...SCT-BKN080-150 BETWEEN 18Z-24Z SATURDAY WITH SLT
CHC OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA WITH BRIEF DOWNDRAFT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE WINDS WILL PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
PEAK GUSTS OF 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. PEAK GUSTS OVER THE INNER
WATERS OF 20 KT. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH AN 8-10 FOOT
SHORT-PERIOD SWELL WILL BE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE














000
FXUS66 KSGX 182122 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
222 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR
THIS EASTER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION.  MARINE STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST
THOUGH...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE.  A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING
ONCE AGAIN.  A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.  A MINOR WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL MOUNTAAIN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENING
INTO A WAVE AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ENOUGH THAT SOME
SUN IS STARTING TO BRIGHTEN THIS DREARY DAY.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO FORMING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15.  SO FAR...RADAR IMAGERY HAS NOT SHOWN ANYTHING OVER
ABOUT 40 DBZ...BUT MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE BIG
BEAR AREA...MIXED WITH SMALL GRAUPEL AT TIMES.  GAGES IN THAT AREA
ARE REPORTING BETWEEN 0.07 AND 0.2 INCHES...WHICH IS QUITE
RESPECTABLE CONSIDERING THE DRY LAYER ON THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING THIS
MORNING.  THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST ELSEWHERE.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS LURKING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SO
EXPECT IT TO SURGE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING...EVENING THOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST WARMING...AS A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER LINGERS ALONG THE COAST...AND CONTINUES TO
MODIFY TEMPERATURES THERE.  ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD EACH NIGHT.  THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE WITH
OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
FALLING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.  GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS...WITH
BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.  AS THIS TROUGH SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD OVER
THE REGION...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
182001Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTN COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH 19/0000
UTC...SCT-BKN CLDS IN THE 2000-4000 FT MSL LAYER...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLD DECKS IN THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER CONTINUING.
ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA THAT COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DURING
THE DAY TODAY. 19/0000-1500 UTC...BKN-OVC STRATUS...WITH BASES
AROUND 1800-2300 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL...GRADUALLY
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AGAIN WITH SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 15000 FT MSL.
MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE DUE TO CLDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLDS
BECOMING SCT-FEW IN THE 15000-30000 FT MSL LAYER BY 19/1500 UTC.
CLEARING OF STRATUS 19/1600-1900 UTC.

MTN DESERT SLOPES/DESERTS...MULTIPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS IN
THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 19/0900 UTC...WITH CLDS BECOMING SCT-FEW THEREAFTER. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA MAY BRING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KT AND 8-10 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD FRESH SWELL
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD IS MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD/PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON










000
FXUS66 KSGX 182122 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
222 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR
THIS EASTER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION.  MARINE STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST
THOUGH...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE.  A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING
ONCE AGAIN.  A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.  A MINOR WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL MOUNTAAIN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENING
INTO A WAVE AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ENOUGH THAT SOME
SUN IS STARTING TO BRIGHTEN THIS DREARY DAY.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO FORMING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15.  SO FAR...RADAR IMAGERY HAS NOT SHOWN ANYTHING OVER
ABOUT 40 DBZ...BUT MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE BIG
BEAR AREA...MIXED WITH SMALL GRAUPEL AT TIMES.  GAGES IN THAT AREA
ARE REPORTING BETWEEN 0.07 AND 0.2 INCHES...WHICH IS QUITE
RESPECTABLE CONSIDERING THE DRY LAYER ON THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING THIS
MORNING.  THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST ELSEWHERE.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS LURKING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SO
EXPECT IT TO SURGE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING...EVENING THOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST WARMING...AS A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER LINGERS ALONG THE COAST...AND CONTINUES TO
MODIFY TEMPERATURES THERE.  ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD EACH NIGHT.  THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE WITH
OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
FALLING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.  GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS...WITH
BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.  AS THIS TROUGH SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD OVER
THE REGION...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
182001Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTN COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH 19/0000
UTC...SCT-BKN CLDS IN THE 2000-4000 FT MSL LAYER...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLD DECKS IN THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER CONTINUING.
ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA THAT COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DURING
THE DAY TODAY. 19/0000-1500 UTC...BKN-OVC STRATUS...WITH BASES
AROUND 1800-2300 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL...GRADUALLY
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AGAIN WITH SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 15000 FT MSL.
MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE DUE TO CLDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLDS
BECOMING SCT-FEW IN THE 15000-30000 FT MSL LAYER BY 19/1500 UTC.
CLEARING OF STRATUS 19/1600-1900 UTC.

MTN DESERT SLOPES/DESERTS...MULTIPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS IN
THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 19/0900 UTC...WITH CLDS BECOMING SCT-FEW THEREAFTER. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA MAY BRING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KT AND 8-10 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD FRESH SWELL
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD IS MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD/PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON











000
FXUS66 KSGX 182035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THIS
EASTER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION.  MARINE STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST
THOUGH...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE.  A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING
ONCE AGAIN.  A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.  A MINOR WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENING
INTO A WAVE AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ENOUGH THAT SOME
SUN IS STARTING TO BRIGHTEN THIS DREARY DAY.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO FORMING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15.  SO FAR...RADAR IMAGERY HAS NOT SHOWN ANYTHING OVER
ABOUT 40 DBZ...BUT MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE BIG
BEAR AREA...MIXED WITH SMALL GRAUPEL AT TIMES.  GAGES IN THAT AREA
ARE REPORTING BETWEEN 0.07 AND 0.2 INCHES...WHICH IS QUITE
RESPECTABLE CONSIDERING THE DRY LAYER ON THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING THIS
MORNING.  THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST ELSEWHERE.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS LURKING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SO
EXPECT IT TO SURGE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING...EVENING THOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST WARMING...AS A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER LINGERS ALONG THE COAST...AND CONTINUES TO
MODIFY TEMPERATURES THERE.  ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD EACH NIGHT.  THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE WITH
OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
FALLING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.  GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS...WITH
BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.  AS THIS TROUGH SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD OVER
THE REGION...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
182001Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTN COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH 19/0000
UTC...SCT-BKN CLDS IN THE 2000-4000 FT MSL LAYER...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLD DECKS IN THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER CONTINUING.
ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA THAT COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DURING
THE DAY TODAY. 19/0000-1500 UTC...BKN-OVC STRATUS...WITH BASES
AROUND 1800-2300 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL...GRADUALLY
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AGAIN WITH SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 15000 FT MSL.
MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE DUE TO CLDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLDS
BECOMING SCT-FEW IN THE 15000-30000 FT MSL LAYER BY 19/1500 UTC.
CLEARING OF STRATUS 19/1600-1900 UTC.

MTN DESERT SLOPES/DESERTS...MULTIPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS IN
THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 19/0900 UTC...WITH CLDS BECOMING SCT-FEW THEREAFTER. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA MAY BRING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KT AND 8-10 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD FRESH SWELL
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD IS MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON








000
FXUS66 KSGX 182035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THIS
EASTER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION.  MARINE STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST
THOUGH...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE.  A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING
ONCE AGAIN.  A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.  A MINOR WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENING
INTO A WAVE AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ENOUGH THAT SOME
SUN IS STARTING TO BRIGHTEN THIS DREARY DAY.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO FORMING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15.  SO FAR...RADAR IMAGERY HAS NOT SHOWN ANYTHING OVER
ABOUT 40 DBZ...BUT MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE BIG
BEAR AREA...MIXED WITH SMALL GRAUPEL AT TIMES.  GAGES IN THAT AREA
ARE REPORTING BETWEEN 0.07 AND 0.2 INCHES...WHICH IS QUITE
RESPECTABLE CONSIDERING THE DRY LAYER ON THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING THIS
MORNING.  THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST ELSEWHERE.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS LURKING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SO
EXPECT IT TO SURGE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING...EVENING THOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST WARMING...AS A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER LINGERS ALONG THE COAST...AND CONTINUES TO
MODIFY TEMPERATURES THERE.  ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD EACH NIGHT.  THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE WITH
OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
FALLING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.  GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS...WITH
BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.  AS THIS TROUGH SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD OVER
THE REGION...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
182001Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTN COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH 19/0000
UTC...SCT-BKN CLDS IN THE 2000-4000 FT MSL LAYER...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLD DECKS IN THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER CONTINUING.
ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA THAT COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DURING
THE DAY TODAY. 19/0000-1500 UTC...BKN-OVC STRATUS...WITH BASES
AROUND 1800-2300 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL...GRADUALLY
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AGAIN WITH SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 15000 FT MSL.
MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE DUE TO CLDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLDS
BECOMING SCT-FEW IN THE 15000-30000 FT MSL LAYER BY 19/1500 UTC.
CLEARING OF STRATUS 19/1600-1900 UTC.

MTN DESERT SLOPES/DESERTS...MULTIPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS IN
THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 19/0900 UTC...WITH CLDS BECOMING SCT-FEW THEREAFTER. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA MAY BRING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KT AND 8-10 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD FRESH SWELL
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD IS MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 181621
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS
AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.  A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE MARINE
STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE.  A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL THEN
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURNING ONCE AGAIN.  A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.  A MINOR WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS MORNING...PULLING PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY
SATURATED PROFILE ABOVE 600 MBS...WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 3500
FEET DEEP.  AS A RESULT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UPWARDS OF
0.93 INCHES.  UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A VERY SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
BETWEEN THESE TWO MOIST LAYERS.  THEREFORE...THE WEAK ECHOS ON THE
RADAR IMAGERY ARE LIKELY VIRGA OR JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.  AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
AT BEST.  OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT TODAY TO BE ANOTHER CLOUDY
DAY...WITH A FEW MORE SUN BREAKS POSSIBLE THAN YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST WARMING
THOUGH...AS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER LINGERS ALONG THE COAST...AND
CONTINUES TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES THERE.  ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD EACH NIGHT.  THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE WITH
OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
FALLING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.  GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS...WITH
BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.  AS THIS TROUGH SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD OVER
THE REGION...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
181525Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTN COASTAL SLOPES...BKN-OVC STRATUS FROM
2500 TO 4500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1800 UTC...IN ADDITION TO
MULTIPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS IN THE 12000-30000 FT MSL
LAYER. MTN OBSCURATION LIKELY DUE TO CLDS. 1800-19/0000
UTC...STRATUS BECOMING SCT-BKN 2000-4000 FT MSL...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLD DECKS CONTINUING. ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH
BASED CONVECTION AND VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY. 19/0000-1500 UTC...BKN-OVC
STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 2000-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT
MSL...GRADUALLY FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AGAIN WITH SCT-BKN CLDS
AOA 15000 FT MSL. MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE DUE TO CLDS.

MTN DESERT SLOPES/DESERTS...MULTIPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS IN
THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 19/0900 UTC...WITH CLDS BECOMING SCT-BKN THEREAFTER. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND VIRGA THAT COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6-7 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD FRESH SWELL
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD IS MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 181621
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS
AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.  A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE MARINE
STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE.  A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL THEN
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURNING ONCE AGAIN.  A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.  A MINOR WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS MORNING...PULLING PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY
SATURATED PROFILE ABOVE 600 MBS...WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 3500
FEET DEEP.  AS A RESULT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UPWARDS OF
0.93 INCHES.  UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A VERY SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
BETWEEN THESE TWO MOIST LAYERS.  THEREFORE...THE WEAK ECHOS ON THE
RADAR IMAGERY ARE LIKELY VIRGA OR JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.  AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
AT BEST.  OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT TODAY TO BE ANOTHER CLOUDY
DAY...WITH A FEW MORE SUN BREAKS POSSIBLE THAN YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.  THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST WARMING
THOUGH...AS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER LINGERS ALONG THE COAST...AND
CONTINUES TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES THERE.  ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD EACH NIGHT.  THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE WITH
OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
FALLING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.  GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS...WITH
BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.  AS THIS TROUGH SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD OVER
THE REGION...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
181525Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTN COASTAL SLOPES...BKN-OVC STRATUS FROM
2500 TO 4500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1800 UTC...IN ADDITION TO
MULTIPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS IN THE 12000-30000 FT MSL
LAYER. MTN OBSCURATION LIKELY DUE TO CLDS. 1800-19/0000
UTC...STRATUS BECOMING SCT-BKN 2000-4000 FT MSL...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLD DECKS CONTINUING. ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH
BASED CONVECTION AND VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY. 19/0000-1500 UTC...BKN-OVC
STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 2000-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT
MSL...GRADUALLY FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AGAIN WITH SCT-BKN CLDS
AOA 15000 FT MSL. MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE DUE TO CLDS.

MTN DESERT SLOPES/DESERTS...MULTIPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS IN
THE 12000-30000 FT MSL LAYER AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 19/0900 UTC...WITH CLDS BECOMING SCT-BKN THEREAFTER. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND VIRGA THAT COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6-7 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD FRESH SWELL
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD IS MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON








000
FXUS66 KSGX 181050
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BRING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS. SLOW INLAND WARMING
FOR SATURDAY WITH GREATER INLAND WARMING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE WEST COAST BRINGING COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WEAKER WINDS AND MODEST WARMING FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO ARIZONA
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THERE IS A FLOW NORTHWARD OF ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN BAJA AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS.
AND GIVEN A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...THERE COULD BE GUSTY DOWNDRAFT
WINDS WITH SHOWERS OR VIRGA. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE MARINE
LAYER IS AROUND 3500 FEET DEEP WITH THE CLOUD LAYER ABOUT 1500 FEET
DEEP SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THIS MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INLAND WITH A SLOWLY DECREASING MARINE LAYER DEPTH WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL EXTENDING INLAND INTO PORTIONS
OF THE VALLEYS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST BRINGING COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH AMPLITUDE...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SLOW WARMING AND WEAKER WINDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
180900Z...THE COASTAL BASIN WILL BE FILLED WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FEET ASL RISING TO AROUND 3000 FEET. TOPS WILL
RISE TO OVER 5000 FEET. THAT WILL MEAN SOME COASTAL SLOPES WILL BE
OBSCURED IN FOG. THESE WILL PARTIALLY SCATTER OUT BY 18-19Z...BUT
SOME BROKEN CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE HIGHER CLOUDS AOA 12000 FEET ASL WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER
ALL AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION AND VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DOWNDRAFT GUST
TO 30 KT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN AND FILL THE ENTIRE
COASTAL BASIN DURING THE EVENING WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FEET ASL.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND INCREASED NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM











000
FXUS66 KSGX 181050
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BRING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS. SLOW INLAND WARMING
FOR SATURDAY WITH GREATER INLAND WARMING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE WEST COAST BRINGING COOLING...DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WEAKER WINDS AND MODEST WARMING FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO ARIZONA
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THERE IS A FLOW NORTHWARD OF ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN BAJA AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS.
AND GIVEN A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...THERE COULD BE GUSTY DOWNDRAFT
WINDS WITH SHOWERS OR VIRGA. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE MARINE
LAYER IS AROUND 3500 FEET DEEP WITH THE CLOUD LAYER ABOUT 1500 FEET
DEEP SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THIS MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INLAND WITH A SLOWLY DECREASING MARINE LAYER DEPTH WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL EXTENDING INLAND INTO PORTIONS
OF THE VALLEYS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST BRINGING COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH AMPLITUDE...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SLOW WARMING AND WEAKER WINDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
180900Z...THE COASTAL BASIN WILL BE FILLED WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FEET ASL RISING TO AROUND 3000 FEET. TOPS WILL
RISE TO OVER 5000 FEET. THAT WILL MEAN SOME COASTAL SLOPES WILL BE
OBSCURED IN FOG. THESE WILL PARTIALLY SCATTER OUT BY 18-19Z...BUT
SOME BROKEN CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE HIGHER CLOUDS AOA 12000 FEET ASL WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER
ALL AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION AND VIRGA THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DOWNDRAFT GUST
TO 30 KT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN AND FILL THE ENTIRE
COASTAL BASIN DURING THE EVENING WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FEET ASL.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND INCREASED NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 180349
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
848 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE
CLOUDS TO THIN AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. FAIR AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...
WHILE COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS SPINNING NE OFF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOCAL COAST. THE LOWER...MARINE
CLOUDS WERE MORE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...BUT SFC OBS AT 8 PM PDT
INDICATE THEY ARE SPREADING BACK INLAND. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE 4-6 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS AND REPORTED WIND GUSTS WERE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 25 MPH AT 03Z. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL HAD A
DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW 25K FT...EXTENDING DOWN TO A WEAK MARINE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 2400 FT.

SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD BANDS OFFSHORE
AT SUNSET. THESE WERE ALSO SHOWING UP ON RADAR OFFSHORE AT 03Z.
THESE MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID-LEVELS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI...SO A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR
BRIEF SHOWERS AND GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AS THEY MOVE OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND
FRI...WITH MARINE CLOUDS SPREADING WELL INLAND. EXPECT SOME BREAKS
IN THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS/DESERTS.

AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM W OF SAN DIEGO THIS
EVENING...CHURNING EAST...ALONG WITH BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OVER SOCAL BY FRI AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OVER AZ ON SAT.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE HELD BELOW NORMAL FRI...THEN WARMER ON SAT. A
DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW THE HIGH CLOUD BASE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
SHOULD MOVE EAST ON SAT...SO AS THE MARINE CLOUDS CLEAR...FAIR SKIES
AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR LATE SUN/MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT FOR WARMING AND
DRYING AND A DECREASING MARINE LAYER. THE RIDGING WILL BE TRANSIENT
AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS THE EASTPAC AND THROUGH CA ON
TUE/WED ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING. ALL THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST...SOME RECOVERY IN HEIGHT/THICKNESS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES REGARDING DAILY TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDS AND WIND AFTER NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
180330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC018-023 SPREADING INLAND TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY WITH LOWER COASTAL MTN SLOPES
LOCALLY OBSCURED. BTWN 15-19Z...BKN-OVC020-025 AT KSNA AND KONT
BECOMING SCT025. BRIEF CLEARING TO SCT025 POSSIBLE AT KSAN AND KCRQ
BTWN 21-24Z.

MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...SCT-BKN100-150 FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGH
BASED CONVECTION/VIRGA AND ISOLATED GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO 30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BUILDING SHORT-PERIOD NW SWELL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PEAK BETWEEN 8-10 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
BUILDING SWELL COMBINED WITH STRONG NW WINDS 15-30 KT FROM AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE










000
FXUS66 KSGX 180349
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
848 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE
CLOUDS TO THIN AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. FAIR AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...
WHILE COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS SPINNING NE OFF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOCAL COAST. THE LOWER...MARINE
CLOUDS WERE MORE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...BUT SFC OBS AT 8 PM PDT
INDICATE THEY ARE SPREADING BACK INLAND. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE 4-6 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS AND REPORTED WIND GUSTS WERE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 25 MPH AT 03Z. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL HAD A
DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW 25K FT...EXTENDING DOWN TO A WEAK MARINE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 2400 FT.

SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD BANDS OFFSHORE
AT SUNSET. THESE WERE ALSO SHOWING UP ON RADAR OFFSHORE AT 03Z.
THESE MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID-LEVELS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI...SO A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR
BRIEF SHOWERS AND GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AS THEY MOVE OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND
FRI...WITH MARINE CLOUDS SPREADING WELL INLAND. EXPECT SOME BREAKS
IN THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS/DESERTS.

AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM W OF SAN DIEGO THIS
EVENING...CHURNING EAST...ALONG WITH BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OVER SOCAL BY FRI AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OVER AZ ON SAT.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE HELD BELOW NORMAL FRI...THEN WARMER ON SAT. A
DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW THE HIGH CLOUD BASE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
SHOULD MOVE EAST ON SAT...SO AS THE MARINE CLOUDS CLEAR...FAIR SKIES
AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR LATE SUN/MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT FOR WARMING AND
DRYING AND A DECREASING MARINE LAYER. THE RIDGING WILL BE TRANSIENT
AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS THE EASTPAC AND THROUGH CA ON
TUE/WED ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING. ALL THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST...SOME RECOVERY IN HEIGHT/THICKNESS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES REGARDING DAILY TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDS AND WIND AFTER NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
180330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC018-023 SPREADING INLAND TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY WITH LOWER COASTAL MTN SLOPES
LOCALLY OBSCURED. BTWN 15-19Z...BKN-OVC020-025 AT KSNA AND KONT
BECOMING SCT025. BRIEF CLEARING TO SCT025 POSSIBLE AT KSAN AND KCRQ
BTWN 21-24Z.

MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...SCT-BKN100-150 FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGH
BASED CONVECTION/VIRGA AND ISOLATED GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO 30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BUILDING SHORT-PERIOD NW SWELL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PEAK BETWEEN 8-10 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
BUILDING SWELL COMBINED WITH STRONG NW WINDS 15-30 KT FROM AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE











000
FXUS66 KSGX 172030
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER...A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  HOWEVER...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL THEN BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER
TO THE REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING
SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY OR UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.  ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS
WELL.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT TOO...PUSHING WELL INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
LIKELY...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE BY MORNING.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY.  THAT BEING
SAID...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW ABOUT 600 MBS...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS
THE GROUND.  THE ONLY PLACES THAT MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
THE MOUNTAINS.  THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER POTENT AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MIDWEEK.  ANY MOISTURE OR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN...LIKELY PUSHING BACK
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED..EXCEPT AT
THE COAST WHERE KSAN AND KCRQ ARE MAINTAINING OVC CIGS AROUND 1900
FT MSL. LOW CLOUDS COULD BECOME SCT FOR BRIEF PERIODS TIL
18/00Z...AFT WHICH LOW CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
1500-2000 FT MSL...1 TO 3 HOURS LATER AT KSNA. LOW CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OVERNIGHT...OBSCURING HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VIS TO 1-3SM WHERE CLOUDS AND
TERRAIN INTERSECT. BASES AND TOPS WILL LIFT ABOUT 500 FT AFT 18/12Z
AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18/17Z AND 18/20Z.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WAVE MODELS SHOW A LARGE SHORT-PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NW BUILDING
ON TUE AND PEAKING AT ABOUT 8-10 FT AT THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY
ON WED. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EWD TO THE NORTH WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS COULD PRODUCE ROUGH
SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING...BUT THE SIZE AND EXACT TIMING OF THE SWELLS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG








000
FXUS66 KSGX 172030
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER...A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  HOWEVER...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL THEN BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER
TO THE REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING
SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY OR UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.  ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS
WELL.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT TOO...PUSHING WELL INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
LIKELY...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE BY MORNING.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY.  THAT BEING
SAID...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW ABOUT 600 MBS...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS
THE GROUND.  THE ONLY PLACES THAT MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
THE MOUNTAINS.  THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER POTENT AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MIDWEEK.  ANY MOISTURE OR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN...LIKELY PUSHING BACK
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED..EXCEPT AT
THE COAST WHERE KSAN AND KCRQ ARE MAINTAINING OVC CIGS AROUND 1900
FT MSL. LOW CLOUDS COULD BECOME SCT FOR BRIEF PERIODS TIL
18/00Z...AFT WHICH LOW CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
1500-2000 FT MSL...1 TO 3 HOURS LATER AT KSNA. LOW CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OVERNIGHT...OBSCURING HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VIS TO 1-3SM WHERE CLOUDS AND
TERRAIN INTERSECT. BASES AND TOPS WILL LIFT ABOUT 500 FT AFT 18/12Z
AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18/17Z AND 18/20Z.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WAVE MODELS SHOW A LARGE SHORT-PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NW BUILDING
ON TUE AND PEAKING AT ABOUT 8-10 FT AT THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY
ON WED. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EWD TO THE NORTH WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS COULD PRODUCE ROUGH
SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING...BUT THE SIZE AND EXACT TIMING OF THE SWELLS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG







000
FXUS66 KSGX 171635
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...THEN MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT...MORE SEASONAL
TYPE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND A
DEEPER AND MORE EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER.  THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  HOWEVER...A STRONG TROUGH
WILL THEN BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS
MORNING...AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH THE WEST
COAST.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE SECOND MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS AN IMPRESSIVE
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD...WITH THE LEADING EDGE JUST MOVING ONSHORE NOW.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...WITH PREDOMINATELY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR FRIDAY.  THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND AREAS STILL RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MEANWHILE...THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENED TO AROUND 2300 FEET LAST NIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
KNKX SOUNDING...BUT WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN TODAY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHLAND
AS WELL AS A DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER.  THE MODELS
SHOW THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 600 MBS....WITH A VERY DRY LAYER LINGERING BETWEEN THE
MARINE LAYER AND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK.  THEREFORE...THINK THAT
ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO FORM ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
VIRGA.  HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER POTENT AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MIDWEEK.  ANY MOISTURE OR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN...LIKELY PUSHING BACK
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
171530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WITH OVC CIGS AROUND 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS
TO 3000 FT MSL. ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTED AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED...WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VIS TO 1-3SM WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY 17/19Z...BUT SCT LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2000
FT MSL WILL LIKELY RETURN TO COASTAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 17/23Z AND
18/02Z...1 TO 3 HOURS LATER AT KSNA. LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OVERNIGHT...OBSCURING HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
AREAS OF REDUCING VIS TO 1-3SM WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT.
BASES AND TOPS WILL LIFT AFT 18/12Z AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18/17Z AND 18/20Z.

OTHERWISE...SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT...BECOMING BKN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WAVE MODELS SHOW A LARGE SHORT-PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NW BUILDING
ON TUE AND PEAKING AT ABOUT 8-10 FT AT THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY
ON WED. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EWD TO THE NORTH WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS COULD PRODUCE ROUGH
SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING...BUT THE SIZE AND EXACT TIMING OF THE SWELLS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG







000
FXUS66 KSGX 171635
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...THEN MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT...MORE SEASONAL
TYPE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND A
DEEPER AND MORE EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER.  THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  HOWEVER...A STRONG TROUGH
WILL THEN BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE REGION
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS
MORNING...AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH THE WEST
COAST.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE SECOND MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS AN IMPRESSIVE
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD...WITH THE LEADING EDGE JUST MOVING ONSHORE NOW.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...WITH PREDOMINATELY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING FOR FRIDAY.  THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND AREAS STILL RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MEANWHILE...THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENED TO AROUND 2300 FEET LAST NIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
KNKX SOUNDING...BUT WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN TODAY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHLAND
AS WELL AS A DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER.  THE MODELS
SHOW THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 600 MBS....WITH A VERY DRY LAYER LINGERING BETWEEN THE
MARINE LAYER AND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK.  THEREFORE...THINK THAT
ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO FORM ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
VIRGA.  HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER POTENT AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MIDWEEK.  ANY MOISTURE OR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN...LIKELY PUSHING BACK
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
171530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WITH OVC CIGS AROUND 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS
TO 3000 FT MSL. ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTED AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED...WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VIS TO 1-3SM WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY 17/19Z...BUT SCT LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2000
FT MSL WILL LIKELY RETURN TO COASTAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 17/23Z AND
18/02Z...1 TO 3 HOURS LATER AT KSNA. LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OVERNIGHT...OBSCURING HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
AREAS OF REDUCING VIS TO 1-3SM WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT.
BASES AND TOPS WILL LIFT AFT 18/12Z AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18/17Z AND 18/20Z.

OTHERWISE...SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT...BECOMING BKN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WAVE MODELS SHOW A LARGE SHORT-PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NW BUILDING
ON TUE AND PEAKING AT ABOUT 8-10 FT AT THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY
ON WED. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EWD TO THE NORTH WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS COULD PRODUCE ROUGH
SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING...BUT THE SIZE AND EXACT TIMING OF THE SWELLS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG








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