Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241209
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF OUR TAF
SITES THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION SLOWLY TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGER COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS SEEN WORKING
ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH TX ALL IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX. THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR TERMINALS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL KEEP CIGS IN
THE MVFR RANGE FOR MOST SITES WITH SOME OCCASIONAL VFR PERIODS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WRAPS
UP FROM SW TO NE ALONG A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO
THE REGION. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG AS STRONG S/SE WINDS
DROP OFF SOMEWHAT AFTER 25/00Z...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SITES.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241209
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF OUR TAF
SITES THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION SLOWLY TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGER COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS SEEN WORKING
ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH TX ALL IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX. THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR TERMINALS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL KEEP CIGS IN
THE MVFR RANGE FOR MOST SITES WITH SOME OCCASIONAL VFR PERIODS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WRAPS
UP FROM SW TO NE ALONG A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO
THE REGION. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG AS STRONG S/SE WINDS
DROP OFF SOMEWHAT AFTER 25/00Z...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SITES.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 241031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 240208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 240208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 240054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXASAND
INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN THAT WILL BE
SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT ALL WATER
STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE FLOODING
ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED WILL WASH OUT
MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL
TAIL DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXASAND
INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN THAT WILL BE
SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT ALL WATER
STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE FLOODING
ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED WILL WASH OUT
MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL
TAIL DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXAAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN
THAT WILL BE SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT
ALL WATER STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE
FLOODING ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED
WILL WASH OUT MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELEIF
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXAAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN
THAT WILL BE SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT
ALL WATER STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE
FLOODING ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED
WILL WASH OUT MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELEIF
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS SELY WINDS RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD ALONG AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO AFFECT MOST TAF
SITES EXCEPT ELD/MLU WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL USHER IN SOME LIGHT SHWRS LATER TODAY...AND
THESE WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUR E TX TERMINALS BUT GRADUALLY WORK
FARTHER EAST TO SHV/TXK WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WE
SHIFT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO AT LEAST LOW VFR AT MOST SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MOIST
SOILS. SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SELY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS LATER TODAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS SELY WINDS RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD ALONG AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO AFFECT MOST TAF
SITES EXCEPT ELD/MLU WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL USHER IN SOME LIGHT SHWRS LATER TODAY...AND
THESE WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUR E TX TERMINALS BUT GRADUALLY WORK
FARTHER EAST TO SHV/TXK WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WE
SHIFT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO AT LEAST LOW VFR AT MOST SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MOIST
SOILS. SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SELY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS LATER TODAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS SELY WINDS RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD ALONG AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO AFFECT MOST TAF
SITES EXCEPT ELD/MLU WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL USHER IN SOME LIGHT SHWRS LATER TODAY...AND
THESE WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUR E TX TERMINALS BUT GRADUALLY WORK
FARTHER EAST TO SHV/TXK WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WE
SHIFT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO AT LEAST LOW VFR AT MOST SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MOIST
SOILS. SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SELY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS LATER TODAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230430
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS
06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THIS IS IN THE GENERAL REGION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPANDED THE
CHANCE POP WORDING OVERNIGHT TO ENCOMPASS A LITTLE MORE OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POP WORDING FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN ACROSS OUR NE ZONES OVERNIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY. OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC AND INCLUDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  30  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230430
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS
06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THIS IS IN THE GENERAL REGION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPANDED THE
CHANCE POP WORDING OVERNIGHT TO ENCOMPASS A LITTLE MORE OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POP WORDING FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN ACROSS OUR NE ZONES OVERNIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY. OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC AND INCLUDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  30  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230430
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS
06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THIS IS IN THE GENERAL REGION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPANDED THE
CHANCE POP WORDING OVERNIGHT TO ENCOMPASS A LITTLE MORE OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POP WORDING FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN ACROSS OUR NE ZONES OVERNIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY. OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC AND INCLUDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  30  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230430
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS
06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THIS IS IN THE GENERAL REGION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPANDED THE
CHANCE POP WORDING OVERNIGHT TO ENCOMPASS A LITTLE MORE OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POP WORDING FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN ACROSS OUR NE ZONES OVERNIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY. OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC AND INCLUDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  30  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THIS IS IN THE GENERAL REGION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPANDED THE
CHANCE POP WORDING OVERNIGHT TO ENCOMPASS A LITTLE MORE OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POP WORDING FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN ACROSS OUR NE ZONES OVERNIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY. OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC AND INCLUDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST TERMINALS 06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  20  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST TERMINALS 06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AFTER
TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY AND NORTHERN BAJA REGION MOVES EAST WITH TRAILING
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH AND
BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WATER RUNOFF MOVING DOWN THE RED
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...AND PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE
WORK WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE QUICK WATER
RUNOFF AND FLOODING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK
WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDING TO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION TO 4 TO 6 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILL
PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/LAKE AND FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
WORKWEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  20  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST TERMINALS 06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AFTER
TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY AND NORTHERN BAJA REGION MOVES EAST WITH TRAILING
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH AND
BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WATER RUNOFF MOVING DOWN THE RED
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...AND PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE
WORK WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE QUICK WATER
RUNOFF AND FLOODING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK
WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDING TO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION TO 4 TO 6 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILL
PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/LAKE AND FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
WORKWEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  20  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST TERMINALS 06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AFTER
TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY AND NORTHERN BAJA REGION MOVES EAST WITH TRAILING
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH AND
BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WATER RUNOFF MOVING DOWN THE RED
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...AND PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE
WORK WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE QUICK WATER
RUNOFF AND FLOODING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK
WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDING TO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION TO 4 TO 6 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILL
PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/LAKE AND FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
WORKWEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  20  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST TERMINALS 06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AFTER
TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY AND NORTHERN BAJA REGION MOVES EAST WITH TRAILING
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH AND
BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WATER RUNOFF MOVING DOWN THE RED
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...AND PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE
WORK WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE QUICK WATER
RUNOFF AND FLOODING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK
WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDING TO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION TO 4 TO 6 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILL
PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/LAKE AND FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
WORKWEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  20  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 222127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AFTER TONIGHT
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADLY INCREASE OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN BAJA REGION MOVES EAST WITH TRAILING TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH AND BROUGHT THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO
SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.
MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTRIBUT TO MORE WATER RUNOFF MOVING DOWN THE RED RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES...AND PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FOR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK WEEK. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING SATRUDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE QUICK WATER RUNOFF AND
FLOODING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSUR RETURNING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDING TO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION TO 4 TO 6 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILL
PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/LAKE AND FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
WORKWEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  20  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221759
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
1026 MB SFC HIGH NEAR KMEM KEEPING A SHALLOW DRY E/NE FLOW OF AIR
IN PLACE 10 KTS OR LESS. OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO SE
AND S BY 5KFT AND WE CONTINUE WITH SW/WLY FLOW ALOFT. ALL SITES
VFR NOW AND UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MORE MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE
VSBY FOR KELD. SCAT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FOR SATURDAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REMAINING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S LIFTS BACK OVER THE AREA
WITH THE HELP OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW NOW OVER AZ/S NV/S CA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. OTHEWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221759
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
1026 MB SFC HIGH NEAR KMEM KEEPING A SHALLOW DRY E/NE FLOW OF AIR
IN PLACE 10 KTS OR LESS. OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO SE
AND S BY 5KFT AND WE CONTINUE WITH SW/WLY FLOW ALOFT. ALL SITES
VFR NOW AND UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MORE MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE
VSBY FOR KELD. SCAT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FOR SATURDAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REMAINING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S LIFTS BACK OVER THE AREA
WITH THE HELP OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW NOW OVER AZ/S NV/S CA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. OTHEWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221759
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
1026 MB SFC HIGH NEAR KMEM KEEPING A SHALLOW DRY E/NE FLOW OF AIR
IN PLACE 10 KTS OR LESS. OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO SE
AND S BY 5KFT AND WE CONTINUE WITH SW/WLY FLOW ALOFT. ALL SITES
VFR NOW AND UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MORE MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE
VSBY FOR KELD. SCAT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FOR SATURDAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REMAINING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S LIFTS BACK OVER THE AREA
WITH THE HELP OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW NOW OVER AZ/S NV/S CA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. OTHEWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221759
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
1026 MB SFC HIGH NEAR KMEM KEEPING A SHALLOW DRY E/NE FLOW OF AIR
IN PLACE 10 KTS OR LESS. OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO SE
AND S BY 5KFT AND WE CONTINUE WITH SW/WLY FLOW ALOFT. ALL SITES
VFR NOW AND UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MORE MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE
VSBY FOR KELD. SCAT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FOR SATURDAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REMAINING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S LIFTS BACK OVER THE AREA
WITH THE HELP OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW NOW OVER AZ/S NV/S CA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. OTHEWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. OTHEWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS BACKDOORED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND AS
A RESULT...ONLY SEEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS ATTM. QUICK CHECK OF OUR VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS THIS
NORTHEAST WIND IS RATHER SHALLOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 4KFT OR SO
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A S/SW TRAJECTORY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES GETTING IN ON THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DOES NOT MERIT AN MENTION IN THE 12
TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS NEAR 5-10KTS TODAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. OTHEWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS BACKDOORED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND AS
A RESULT...ONLY SEEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS ATTM. QUICK CHECK OF OUR VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS THIS
NORTHEAST WIND IS RATHER SHALLOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 4KFT OR SO
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A S/SW TRAJECTORY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES GETTING IN ON THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DOES NOT MERIT AN MENTION IN THE 12
TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS NEAR 5-10KTS TODAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. OTHEWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS BACKDOORED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND AS
A RESULT...ONLY SEEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS ATTM. QUICK CHECK OF OUR VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS THIS
NORTHEAST WIND IS RATHER SHALLOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 4KFT OR SO
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A S/SW TRAJECTORY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES GETTING IN ON THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DOES NOT MERIT AN MENTION IN THE 12
TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS NEAR 5-10KTS TODAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DEW POINTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. OTHEWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS BACKDOORED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND AS
A RESULT...ONLY SEEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS ATTM. QUICK CHECK OF OUR VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS THIS
NORTHEAST WIND IS RATHER SHALLOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 4KFT OR SO
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A S/SW TRAJECTORY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES GETTING IN ON THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DOES NOT MERIT AN MENTION IN THE 12
TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS NEAR 5-10KTS TODAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS BACKDOORED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND AS
A RESULT...ONLY SEEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS ATTM. QUICK CHECK OF OUR VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS THIS
NORTHEAST WIND IS RATHER SHALLOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 4KFT OR SO
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A S/SW TRAJECTORY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES GETTING IN ON THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DOES NOT MERIT AN MENTION IN THE 12
TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS NEAR 5-10KTS TODAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS BACKDOORED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND AS
A RESULT...ONLY SEEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS ATTM. QUICK CHECK OF OUR VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS THIS
NORTHEAST WIND IS RATHER SHALLOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 4KFT OR SO
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A S/SW TRAJECTORY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES GETTING IN ON THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DOES NOT MERIT AN MENTION IN THE 12
TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS NEAR 5-10KTS TODAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS BACKDOORED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND AS
A RESULT...ONLY SEEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS ATTM. QUICK CHECK OF OUR VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS THIS
NORTHEAST WIND IS RATHER SHALLOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 4KFT OR SO
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A S/SW TRAJECTORY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES GETTING IN ON THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DOES NOT MERIT AN MENTION IN THE 12
TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS NEAR 5-10KTS TODAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /  10  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /  10  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /   5  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /   5  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /   5  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /   5  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /   5  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /   5  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
510 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES OUR STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST E ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH THE
KSHV 88-D REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...SFC OBS STILL INDICATE THAT
SOME PATCHY -DZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...POSSIBLY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE SFC BNDRY TO OUR S ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE NE
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...ATOP FLAT RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD N ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FAR NW ZONES MAY SEE
A WEAK INFLUENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE HARD TO COME
BY ELSEWHERE...AND ISOLATED AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...AND REMOVED POPS
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA.

THIS POP-FREE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
SFC BNDRY TO OUR S LIFT QUICKLY N AND WASH OUT...ALLOWING THE WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO SURGE BACK NWD THROUGH THE AREA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY
NWD...AS THE CA CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THUS...A DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL SET UP WEST OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE SURGING N ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/DIMINISHED INSTABILITY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NW ZONES NW OF I-30 SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR W OVER CNTRL OK/TX.

THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL/E TX SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS E
TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER E INTO N LA/SW AR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR OUR REGION IS STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...IT/S STILL TOO SOON FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT OF THE
FORECAST. DID INSERT MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR E TX/SE OK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
SPREADS E. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RENEWING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT MAY REBUILD BACK WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  62  83  71 /  10  10  40  30
MLU  74  60  84  70 /   5  10  40  30
DEQ  72  58  79  68 /  20  20  30  40
TXK  73  60  82  69 /  10  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  83  69 /   5  10  30  30
TYR  75  65  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
GGG  75  64  82  71 /  20  20  50  40
LFK  79  69  83  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 220502
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1202 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. FOR THE MOST PART...STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FOG LOOK TO
CONTINUE OVER E TX/NW LA TERMINALS...WITH THE REMAINDER TO
CONTINUE UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON
AREAWIDE BY MID AFTERNOON LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT ELY TO
NELY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SE AND E AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ACROSS NE
TX FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY STILL
BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS ATTM. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING BASICALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TYR/GGG TO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR. LATEST 00Z WRF OUTPUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP
ACROSS THIS REGION BUT THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE REGION FOR WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DO RETURN AT THE 8H LEVEL WHICH
WILL OVERRUN A NE WIND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA
WHERE 02Z TEMPS WERE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM FCST MINS. CLOUD
COVER HAS SCOURED OUT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES BUT SHOULD FILL
IN OVERNIGHT WITH 7H MOISTURE.

OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED DEWPOINT/RH AND WIND GRIDS TO MIMIC CURRENT
AND EXPECTED CHANGES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. PRELIMS ARE AS FOLLOWS...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPNSSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  77  65  83 /  10  20  20  50
MLU  56  76  63  84 /  10  20  20  50
DEQ  55  72  60  79 /  10  40  20  50
TXK  56  73  61  81 /  10  30  20  50
ELD  54  74  61  82 /  10  20  20  50
TYR  60  76  66  82 /  20  40  20  40
GGG  59  77  66  83 /  20  30  20  40
LFK  64  80  69  84 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 220502
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1202 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. FOR THE MOST PART...STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FOG LOOK TO
CONTINUE OVER E TX/NW LA TERMINALS...WITH THE REMAINDER TO
CONTINUE UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON
AREAWIDE BY MID AFTERNOON LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT ELY TO
NELY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SE AND E AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ACROSS NE
TX FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY STILL
BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS ATTM. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING BASICALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TYR/GGG TO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR. LATEST 00Z WRF OUTPUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP
ACROSS THIS REGION BUT THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE REGION FOR WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DO RETURN AT THE 8H LEVEL WHICH
WILL OVERRUN A NE WIND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA
WHERE 02Z TEMPS WERE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM FCST MINS. CLOUD
COVER HAS SCOURED OUT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES BUT SHOULD FILL
IN OVERNIGHT WITH 7H MOISTURE.

OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED DEWPOINT/RH AND WIND GRIDS TO MIMIC CURRENT
AND EXPECTED CHANGES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. PRELIMS ARE AS FOLLOWS...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPNSSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  77  65  83 /  10  20  20  50
MLU  56  76  63  84 /  10  20  20  50
DEQ  55  72  60  79 /  10  40  20  50
TXK  56  73  61  81 /  10  30  20  50
ELD  54  74  61  82 /  10  20  20  50
TYR  60  76  66  82 /  20  40  20  40
GGG  59  77  66  83 /  20  30  20  40
LFK  64  80  69  84 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220242
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
942 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ACROSS NE
TX FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY STILL
BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS ATTM. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING BASICALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TYR/GGG TO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR. LATEST 00Z WRF OUTPUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP
ACROSS THIS REGION BUT THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE REGION FOR WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DO RETURN AT THE 8H LEVEL WHICH
WILL OVERRUN A NE WIND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA
WHERE 02Z TEMPS WERE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM FCST MINS. CLOUD
COVER HAS SCOWERED OUT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES BUT SHOULD FILL
IN OVERNIGHT WITH 7H MOISTURE.

OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED DEWPOINT/RH AND WIND GRIDS TO MIMIC CURRENT
AND EXPECTED CHANGES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. PRELIMS ARE AS FOLLOWS...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTXK...WHICH SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT NE TO ESELY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPNSSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  77  65  83 /  10  20  20  50
MLU  56  76  63  84 /  10  20  20  50
DEQ  55  72  60  79 /  10  40  20  50
TXK  56  73  61  81 /  10  30  20  50
ELD  54  74  61  82 /  10  20  20  50
TYR  60  76  66  82 /  20  40  20  40
GGG  59  77  66  83 /  20  30  20  40
LFK  64  80  69  84 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/12/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 212352
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTXK...WHICH SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT NE TO ESELY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPNSSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  77  65  83 /  20  20  20  50
MLU  56  76  63  84 /  20  20  20  50
DEQ  55  72  60  79 /  10  40  20  50
TXK  56  73  61  81 /  20  30  20  50
ELD  55  74  61  82 /  20  20  20  50
TYR  61  76  66  82 /  20  40  20  40
GGG  61  77  66  83 /  20  30  20  40
LFK  65  80  69  84 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 212352
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTXK...WHICH SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT NE TO ESELY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPNSSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  77  65  83 /  20  20  20  50
MLU  56  76  63  84 /  20  20  20  50
DEQ  55  72  60  79 /  10  40  20  50
TXK  56  73  61  81 /  20  30  20  50
ELD  55  74  61  82 /  20  20  20  50
TYR  61  76  66  82 /  20  40  20  40
GGG  61  77  66  83 /  20  30  20  40
LFK  65  80  69  84 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 212352
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTXK...WHICH SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT NE TO ESELY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPNSSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  77  65  83 /  20  20  20  50
MLU  56  76  63  84 /  20  20  20  50
DEQ  55  72  60  79 /  10  40  20  50
TXK  56  73  61  81 /  20  30  20  50
ELD  55  74  61  82 /  20  20  20  50
TYR  61  76  66  82 /  20  40  20  40
GGG  61  77  66  83 /  20  30  20  40
LFK  65  80  69  84 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 212352
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTXK...WHICH SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT NE TO ESELY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPNSSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  77  65  83 /  20  20  20  50
MLU  56  76  63  84 /  20  20  20  50
DEQ  55  72  60  79 /  10  40  20  50
TXK  56  73  61  81 /  20  30  20  50
ELD  55  74  61  82 /  20  20  20  50
TYR  61  76  66  82 /  20  40  20  40
GGG  61  77  66  83 /  20  30  20  40
LFK  65  80  69  84 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 212050
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPHNSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCNL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CIGS BY 22/00Z. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT
KMLU AND KLFK...WITH STANDING WATER POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS THIS AFTN.
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING INCREASING NORTHERLY CLIMB WINDS WITH
SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND FRONT...WHICH IS MOVG SOUTH INTO SE
TX/SOUTH LA. WINDS BEMCG EASTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  59  77  65 /  70  20  20  20
MLU  72  56  76  63 /  60  20  20  20
DEQ  69  55  72  60 /  50  10  40  20
TXK  68  56  73  61 /  50  20  30  20
ELD  68  55  74  61 /  60  20  20  20
TYR  69  61  76  66 /  70  20  40  20
GGG  70  61  77  66 /  70  20  30  20
LFK  76  65  80  69 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PALMER/VII





000
FXUS64 KSHV 211843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
143 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCNL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CIGS BY 22/00Z. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT
KMLU AND KLFK...WITH STANDING WATER POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS THIS AFTN.
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING INCREASING NORTHERLY CLIMB WINDS WITH
SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND FRONT...WHICH IS MOVG SOUTH INTO SE
TX/SOUTH LA. WINDS BEMCG EASTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

MORNING UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM LILLIE AND BERNICE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DODSON AND CALVIN...BACK TO MANY...HEMPHILL...AND PINELAND. BEHIND
THIS LINE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE AS
WELL...MAKING IT ANOTHER SOGGY MORNING. WE DID HAVE REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN IN LUFKIN THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL
ROADS...INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 50 AND 69 CLOSED SOUTH OF LUFKIN.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS ARE JUST SEEING SOME NUANCE FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL RATES TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TODAY...GIVEN THE COOLER AIR SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE
POTENTIAL MAJOR FLOOD EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPWARDS OF 8
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM
OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1990.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
BRIEF IFR W/ MVFR FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG I-20 FOR TERMINALS FROM
TYR TO MLU. A LEAD SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE LONG WAVE ANCHORED OVER
THE SW US HAS OVERRUN A RECENT FROPA AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SFC WINDS N/NE 5-10 WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 AND IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN DOWN POURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET VEERING QUICKLY TO SE THEN SW BY 7KFT.
W/SW 20-60KTS ON ASCENT TO FL300. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD ALL DAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR. OUTLOOK FOR THE
WEEKEND IS MUCH BETTER...BUT PM POPS TSTMS BCMG NUMEROUS MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING
LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ON THE SURFACE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT HAD REACHED THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. UNSEASONABLY
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW TODAY...
EASILY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ISOLATED BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REPLACE
THE TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...AND THURSDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST...SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO LOOK FOR CONVECTION
TO INCREASE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE BACK
SIDE OF A WEAK RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES EASTERN
AREAS TO ISOLATED. A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...WHICH
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE STORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. FINALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED...
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY AND
FRIDAY...EXPECT VERY HUMID WEATHER DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  59  77  66 /  70  30  30  20
MLU  73  57  77  64 /  60  10  10  20
DEQ  71  55  71  60 /  50  20  50  20
TXK  70  57  73  62 /  50  20  40  20
ELD  70  57  74  62 /  60  10  20  20
TYR  71  62  77  67 /  70  30  50  20
GGG  72  61  78  67 /  70  30  40  20
LFK  78  66  81  70 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 211843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
143 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCNL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CIGS BY 22/00Z. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT
KMLU AND KLFK...WITH STANDING WATER POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS THIS AFTN.
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING INCREASING NORTHERLY CLIMB WINDS WITH
SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND FRONT...WHICH IS MOVG SOUTH INTO SE
TX/SOUTH LA. WINDS BEMCG EASTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

MORNING UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM LILLIE AND BERNICE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DODSON AND CALVIN...BACK TO MANY...HEMPHILL...AND PINELAND. BEHIND
THIS LINE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE AS
WELL...MAKING IT ANOTHER SOGGY MORNING. WE DID HAVE REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN IN LUFKIN THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL
ROADS...INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 50 AND 69 CLOSED SOUTH OF LUFKIN.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS ARE JUST SEEING SOME NUANCE FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL RATES TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TODAY...GIVEN THE COOLER AIR SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE
POTENTIAL MAJOR FLOOD EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPWARDS OF 8
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM
OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1990.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
BRIEF IFR W/ MVFR FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG I-20 FOR TERMINALS FROM
TYR TO MLU. A LEAD SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE LONG WAVE ANCHORED OVER
THE SW US HAS OVERRUN A RECENT FROPA AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SFC WINDS N/NE 5-10 WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 AND IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN DOWN POURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET VEERING QUICKLY TO SE THEN SW BY 7KFT.
W/SW 20-60KTS ON ASCENT TO FL300. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD ALL DAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR. OUTLOOK FOR THE
WEEKEND IS MUCH BETTER...BUT PM POPS TSTMS BCMG NUMEROUS MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING
LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ON THE SURFACE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT HAD REACHED THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. UNSEASONABLY
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW TODAY...
EASILY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ISOLATED BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REPLACE
THE TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...AND THURSDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST...SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO LOOK FOR CONVECTION
TO INCREASE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE BACK
SIDE OF A WEAK RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES EASTERN
AREAS TO ISOLATED. A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...WHICH
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE STORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. FINALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED...
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY AND
FRIDAY...EXPECT VERY HUMID WEATHER DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  59  77  66 /  70  30  30  20
MLU  73  57  77  64 /  60  10  10  20
DEQ  71  55  71  60 /  50  20  50  20
TXK  70  57  73  62 /  50  20  40  20
ELD  70  57  74  62 /  60  10  20  20
TYR  71  62  77  67 /  70  30  50  20
GGG  72  61  78  67 /  70  30  40  20
LFK  78  66  81  70 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 211843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
143 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCNL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CIGS BY 22/00Z. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT
KMLU AND KLFK...WITH STANDING WATER POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS THIS AFTN.
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING INCREASING NORTHERLY CLIMB WINDS WITH
SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND FRONT...WHICH IS MOVG SOUTH INTO SE
TX/SOUTH LA. WINDS BEMCG EASTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

MORNING UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM LILLIE AND BERNICE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DODSON AND CALVIN...BACK TO MANY...HEMPHILL...AND PINELAND. BEHIND
THIS LINE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE AS
WELL...MAKING IT ANOTHER SOGGY MORNING. WE DID HAVE REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN IN LUFKIN THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL
ROADS...INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 50 AND 69 CLOSED SOUTH OF LUFKIN.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS ARE JUST SEEING SOME NUANCE FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL RATES TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TODAY...GIVEN THE COOLER AIR SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE
POTENTIAL MAJOR FLOOD EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPWARDS OF 8
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM
OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1990.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
BRIEF IFR W/ MVFR FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG I-20 FOR TERMINALS FROM
TYR TO MLU. A LEAD SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE LONG WAVE ANCHORED OVER
THE SW US HAS OVERRUN A RECENT FROPA AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SFC WINDS N/NE 5-10 WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 AND IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN DOWN POURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET VEERING QUICKLY TO SE THEN SW BY 7KFT.
W/SW 20-60KTS ON ASCENT TO FL300. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD ALL DAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR. OUTLOOK FOR THE
WEEKEND IS MUCH BETTER...BUT PM POPS TSTMS BCMG NUMEROUS MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING
LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ON THE SURFACE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT HAD REACHED THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. UNSEASONABLY
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW TODAY...
EASILY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ISOLATED BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REPLACE
THE TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...AND THURSDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST...SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO LOOK FOR CONVECTION
TO INCREASE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE BACK
SIDE OF A WEAK RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES EASTERN
AREAS TO ISOLATED. A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...WHICH
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE STORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. FINALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED...
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY AND
FRIDAY...EXPECT VERY HUMID WEATHER DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  59  77  66 /  70  30  30  20
MLU  73  57  77  64 /  60  10  10  20
DEQ  71  55  71  60 /  50  20  50  20
TXK  70  57  73  62 /  50  20  40  20
ELD  70  57  74  62 /  60  10  20  20
TYR  71  62  77  67 /  70  30  50  20
GGG  72  61  78  67 /  70  30  40  20
LFK  78  66  81  70 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 211550
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.MORNING UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM LILLIE AND BERNICE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DODSON AND CALVIN...BACK TO MANY...HEMPHILL...AND PINELAND. BEHIND
THIS LINE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE AS
WELL...MAKING IT ANOTHER SOGGY MORNING. WE DID HAVE REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN IN LUFKIN THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL
ROADS...INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 50 AND 69 CLOSED SOUTH OF LUFKIN.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS ARE JUST SEEING SOME NUANCE FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL RATES TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TODAY...GIVEN THE COOLER AIR SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE
POTENTIAL MAJOR FLOOD EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPWARDS OF 8
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM
OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1990.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
BRIEF IFR W/ MVFR FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG I-20 FOR TERMINALS FROM
TYR TO MLU. A LEAD SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE LONG WAVE ANCHORED OVER
THE SW US HAS OVERRUN A RECENT FROPA AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SFC WINDS N/NE 5-10 WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 AND IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN DOWN POURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET VEERING QUICKLY TO SE THEN SW BY 7KFT.
W/SW 20-60KTS ON ASCENT TO FL300. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD ALL DAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR. OUTLOOK FOR THE
WEEKEND IS MUCH BETTER...BUT PM POPS TSTMS BCMG NUMEROUS MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING
LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ON THE SURFACE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT HAD REACHED THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. UNSEASONABLY
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW TODAY...
EASILY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ISOLATED BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REPLACE
THE TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...AND THURSDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST...SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO LOOK FOR CONVECTION
TO INCREASE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE BACK
SIDE OF A WEAK RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES EASTERN
AREAS TO ISOLATED. A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...WHICH
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE STORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. FINALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED...
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY AND
FRIDAY...EXPECT VERY HUMID WEATHER DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  59  77  66 /  70  30  30  20
MLU  73  57  77  64 /  60  10  10  20
DEQ  71  55  71  60 /  50  20  50  20
TXK  70  57  73  62 /  50  20  40  20
ELD  70  57  74  62 /  60  10  20  20
TYR  71  62  77  67 /  70  30  50  20
GGG  72  61  78  67 /  70  30  40  20
LFK  78  66  81  70 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PALMER/24/14




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities