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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180551 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -SHRA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENE ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/EXTREME
ERN TX...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCT -SHRA FARTHER W OVER SE OK/N TX
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO NE TX OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...CIGS HAVE
BECOME MVFR...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NE
TX/SE OK...AND SHOULD SPREAD E INTO EXTREME SW AR/NW LA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...VFR CIGS OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH
MVFR/SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. THE SCT -SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z...BUT STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY
ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA. EVEN WHILE THE -SHRA
DIMINISHES...PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN -DZ SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
MIDDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CIGS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
MUCH /IF AT ALL/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...IFR
CIGS SHOULD EXPAND AREAWIDE...WITH PERIODS OF -DZ POSSIBLE AS WELL
UNTIL SCT -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX/SRN LA AND
EXPAND N ACROSS E TX/N LA JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. ENE WINDS 4-7KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 172115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 172115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 171757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PD...AS SHWRS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BRING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY OUT OF THE E
AT 4-8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 171757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PD...AS SHWRS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BRING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY OUT OF THE E
AT 4-8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 171719
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 171719
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 171121
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING AC DECK ACROSS MOST OF NE TX
NOW...QUICKLY MOVING INTO SW AR AND NW LA. INITIAL CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 10-8KFT WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY LOWERING TO NEAR 4-5KFT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS
ALSO DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OK. THIS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A
STRONGLY VEERED LOWER 5KFT WIND PROFILE ALSO HELPING FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE ABOVE REGION AS
WELL.

FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING...HAVE CEILINGS
STEADILY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH VCSH MENTION AT THE TYR/TXK
TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 18Z...WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT AFTERNOON -RA.
GRADUALLY BRING THESE CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINING
TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS AS WE SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.
CEILINGS COULD BEGIN BECOMING MVFR AS EARLY AS 00Z ACROSS SOME OF
OUR NE TX TERMINALS DEPENDING UPON JUST HOW FAST THIS SATURATION
PROCESS OCCURS. OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR
WITH SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY WITH -SHRA WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION
BEING THE MLU TERMINAL WHICH MAY NOT GET IN ON THE PRECIP UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE 18/12Z TIMEFRAME.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A E OR ESE DIRECTION
TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 170600 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 17/06Z TAF
PERIOD. THIN CIRRUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
6-8KFT CIGS ALONG AND W OF A MWL...TO CPT...TO ACT AND CLL LINE AS
OF 05Z EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND
INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 12-16Z. THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER
WCNTRL AND N TX BY DAYBREAK AND RAPIDLY SPREADING E THROUGH THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX/SE OK BY OR
SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. -RA SHOULD THEN SPREAD ENE INTO SW AR/EXTREME
NW LA BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SOME TIME AFTER THE -RA BEGINS...ALTHOUGH 3-6SM VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 00Z ACROSS E TX AS HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP WITH THE -RA. LT/VRB OR LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 162331 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 162331 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 162158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 162158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 161718
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 161718
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05








000
FXUS64 KSHV 161657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH
PASSING CIRRUS AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SRN FRINGES OF THE AREA.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR FREEZING TO EVEN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEW TEXT PRODUCTS REFLECTING MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 161657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH
PASSING CIRRUS AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SRN FRINGES OF THE AREA.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR FREEZING TO EVEN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEW TEXT PRODUCTS REFLECTING MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 160520
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NW WITH SUCH IN THE GRIDS.
OUR AIR HAS A GOOD WAY TO FALL IN MOST SPOTS WITH MOST OF I-20
AND SOUTH IN THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...N OF I-30 LOW TO
MID 40S ALREADY WILL KEEP MIXED AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD. OUR WINDS
MAY SLACK RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH LOWS RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK
AT THAT TIME. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH AT ALL TO CONTEND
WITH ANYWHERE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS FRESH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE MID SOUTH. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 160336
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
936 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NW WITH SUCH IN THE GRIDS.
OUR AIR HAS A GOOD WAY TO FALL IN MOST SPOTS WITH MOST OF I-20
AND SOUTH IN THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...N OF I-30 LOW TO
MID 40S ALREADY WILL KEEP MIXED AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD. OUR WINDS
MAY SLACK RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH LOWS RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK
AT THAT TIME. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH AT ALL TO CONTEND
WITH ANYWHERE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS FRESH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE MID SOUTH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME LOWER STRATOCU CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NW MO AND SOME OF THIS
MAY SKIRT THE FAR NRN EDGES OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWRD BRINGING
EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE W TO NW BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR FREEEZING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST AREAS WHILE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE E/SE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIOR TO THE TROF ARRIVING SHOULD LEAD
TO SHWRS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING UP
ALONG THE TX COAST AND ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14






000
FXUS64 KSHV 160336
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
936 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NW WITH SUCH IN THE GRIDS.
OUR AIR HAS A GOOD WAY TO FALL IN MOST SPOTS WITH MOST OF I-20
AND SOUTH IN THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...N OF I-30 LOW TO
MID 40S ALREADY WILL KEEP MIXED AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD. OUR WINDS
MAY SLACK RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH LOWS RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK
AT THAT TIME. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH AT ALL TO CONTEND
WITH ANYWHERE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS FRESH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE MID SOUTH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME LOWER STRATOCU CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NW MO AND SOME OF THIS
MAY SKIRT THE FAR NRN EDGES OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWRD BRINGING
EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE W TO NW BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR FREEEZING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST AREAS WHILE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE E/SE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIOR TO THE TROF ARRIVING SHOULD LEAD
TO SHWRS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING UP
ALONG THE TX COAST AND ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 160336
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
936 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NW WITH SUCH IN THE GRIDS.
OUR AIR HAS A GOOD WAY TO FALL IN MOST SPOTS WITH MOST OF I-20
AND SOUTH IN THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...N OF I-30 LOW TO
MID 40S ALREADY WILL KEEP MIXED AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD. OUR WINDS
MAY SLACK RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH LOWS RIGHT IN THE BALL PARK
AT THAT TIME. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH AT ALL TO CONTEND
WITH ANYWHERE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS FRESH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE MID SOUTH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME LOWER STRATOCU CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NW MO AND SOME OF THIS
MAY SKIRT THE FAR NRN EDGES OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWRD BRINGING
EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE W TO NW BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR FREEEZING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST AREAS WHILE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE E/SE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIOR TO THE TROF ARRIVING SHOULD LEAD
TO SHWRS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING UP
ALONG THE TX COAST AND ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 160013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
613 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME LOWER STRATOCU CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NW MO AND SOME OF THIS
MAY SKIRT THE FAR NRN EDGES OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWRD BRINGING
EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE W TO NW BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR FREEEZING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST AREAS WHILE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE E/SE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIOR TO THE TROF ARRIVING SHOULD LEAD
TO SHWRS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING UP
ALONG THE TX COAST AND ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 152200
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME LOWER STRATOCU CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NW MO AND SOME OF THIS
MAY SKIRT THE FAR NRN EDGES OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWRD BRINGING
EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE W TO NW BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR FREEEZING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST AREAS WHILE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE E/SE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIOR TO THE TROF ARRIVING SHOULD LEAD
TO SHWRS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING UP
ALONG THE TX COAST AND ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 152200
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME LOWER STRATOCU CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NW MO AND SOME OF THIS
MAY SKIRT THE FAR NRN EDGES OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWRD BRINGING
EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE W TO NW BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR FREEEZING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST AREAS WHILE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE E/SE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIOR TO THE TROF ARRIVING SHOULD LEAD
TO SHWRS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING UP
ALONG THE TX COAST AND ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 152200
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME LOWER STRATOCU CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NW MO AND SOME OF THIS
MAY SKIRT THE FAR NRN EDGES OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWRD BRINGING
EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE W TO NW BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR FREEEZING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST AREAS WHILE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE E/SE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIOR TO THE TROF ARRIVING SHOULD LEAD
TO SHWRS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING UP
ALONG THE TX COAST AND ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 152200
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF
THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME LOWER STRATOCU CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NW MO AND SOME OF THIS
MAY SKIRT THE FAR NRN EDGES OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWRD BRINGING
EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE W TO NW BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR FREEEZING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST AREAS WHILE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE E/SE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIOR TO THE TROF ARRIVING SHOULD LEAD
TO SHWRS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING UP
ALONG THE TX COAST AND ACROSS LA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  57  34  53  45 /   0   0   0  20  50
MLU  42  57  33  53  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
DEQ  35  52  30  48  40 /   0   0   0  20  60
TXK  38  52  32  49  41 /   0   0   0  20  60
ELD  39  54  32  51  41 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  39  54  35  51  46 /   0   0   0  30  60
GGG  39  56  34  51  45 /   0   0   0  20  60
LFK  42  60  37  56  49 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 151732
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1132 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BECOMING 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  42  57  35  54 /  10  10   0   0  20
MLU  75  43  57  33  54 /  40  10   0   0  10
DEQ  66  35  52  30  49 /  10  10   0   0  30
TXK  68  39  52  32  50 /  10  10   0   0  20
ELD  72  39  53  32  51 /  30  10   0   0  20
TYR  69  40  54  36  52 /  10  10   0   0  30
GGG  72  40  55  34  53 /  10  10   0   0  30
LFK  77  42  60  37  56 /  30  10   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 151732
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1132 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BECOMING 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  42  57  35  54 /  10  10   0   0  20
MLU  75  43  57  33  54 /  40  10   0   0  10
DEQ  66  35  52  30  49 /  10  10   0   0  30
TXK  68  39  52  32  50 /  10  10   0   0  20
ELD  72  39  53  32  51 /  30  10   0   0  20
TYR  69  40  54  36  52 /  10  10   0   0  30
GGG  72  40  55  34  53 /  10  10   0   0  30
LFK  77  42  60  37  56 /  30  10   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 151732
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1132 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL AR DOWN ACROSS PARTS
OF N CNTRL/NW LA AND DEEP E TX. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SEWRD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH RAPID CLEARING SOON
TO FOLLOW AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS TO INCLUDE
THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF RAIN FARTHER WEST WHERE CLEARING IS ALREADY IN
PROGRESS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THIS CLEARING
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CLEARING SKIES. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
/19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVG NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
ATTM. HOWEVER...THUNDER QUITE SPARSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ONLY CARRY SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTM THRU MORNING. HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM EXTREME NW CWA. INTENSE SFC LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL KS...THUS...EXPECT MOST STRONGER CONVECTION
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
LATER TODAY AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...W-NW BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MOST TEMPS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE BEST RADIATION COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. MSTR
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD SEE SOME RAIN OVER
MAINLY NE TX/SE OK LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP SATURATION WILL SET UP
ONCE SFC LOW NEAR COAST DRIFTS TO SOUTH LA...AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS
OVHD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BEFORE ENDING IN TIME FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD UPCOMING WEEKEND. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  42  57  35  54 /  10  10   0   0  20
MLU  75  43  57  33  54 /  40  10   0   0  10
DEQ  66  35  52  30  49 /  10  10   0   0  30
TXK  68  39  52  32  50 /  10  10   0   0  20
ELD  72  39  53  32  51 /  30  10   0   0  20
TYR  69  40  54  36  52 /  10  10   0   0  30
GGG  72  40  55  34  53 /  10  10   0   0  30
LFK  77  42  60  37  56 /  30  10   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 151732
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1132 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL AR DOWN ACROSS PARTS
OF N CNTRL/NW LA AND DEEP E TX. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SEWRD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH RAPID CLEARING SOON
TO FOLLOW AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS TO INCLUDE
THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF RAIN FARTHER WEST WHERE CLEARING IS ALREADY IN
PROGRESS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THIS CLEARING
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CLEARING SKIES. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
/19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVG NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
ATTM. HOWEVER...THUNDER QUITE SPARSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ONLY CARRY SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTM THRU MORNING. HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM EXTREME NW CWA. INTENSE SFC LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL KS...THUS...EXPECT MOST STRONGER CONVECTION
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
LATER TODAY AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...W-NW BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MOST TEMPS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE BEST RADIATION COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. MSTR
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD SEE SOME RAIN OVER
MAINLY NE TX/SE OK LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP SATURATION WILL SET UP
ONCE SFC LOW NEAR COAST DRIFTS TO SOUTH LA...AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS
OVHD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BEFORE ENDING IN TIME FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD UPCOMING WEEKEND. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  42  57  35  54 /  10  10   0   0  20
MLU  75  43  57  33  54 /  40  10   0   0  10
DEQ  66  35  52  30  49 /  10  10   0   0  30
TXK  68  39  52  32  50 /  10  10   0   0  20
ELD  72  39  53  32  51 /  30  10   0   0  20
TYR  69  40  54  36  52 /  10  10   0   0  30
GGG  72  40  55  34  53 /  10  10   0   0  30
LFK  77  42  60  37  56 /  30  10   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 151334
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS NE TX...EXTREME NW LA
AND SW AR ATTM. NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND WAS MAKING SE PROGRESS
NEAR 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TYR/GGG AND TXK TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR
AS OF 13Z WITH SHV/ELD THE NEXT TWO TO JUMP AFTER THE BROKEN LINE
OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS. LFK/MLU TERMINALS WILL
BE THE LAST TO SEE THE CONVECTION THUS...WOULD NOT EXPECT CEILINGS
TO IMPROVE AT THOSE LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE SOME STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING AND SUN TODAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A POST FRONTAL WNW WIND NEAR 10KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVG NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
ATTM. HOWEVER...THUNDER QUITE SPARSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ONLY CARRY SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTM THRU MORNING. HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM EXTREME NW CWA. INTENSE SFC LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL KS...THUS...EXPECT MOST STRONGER CONVECTION
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
LATER TODAY AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...W-NW BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MOST TEMPS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE BEST RADIATION COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. MSTR
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD SEE SOME RAIN OVER
MAINLY NE TX/SE OK LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP SATURATION WILL SET UP
ONCE SFC LOW NEAR COAST DRIFTS TO SOUTH LA...AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS
OVHD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BEFORE ENDING IN TIME FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD UPCOMING WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  42  57  35  54 /  60  10   0   0  20
MLU  74  43  57  33  54 /  70  10   0   0  10
DEQ  66  35  52  30  49 /  10  10   0   0  30
TXK  68  39  52  32  50 /  60  10   0   0  20
ELD  71  39  53  32  51 /  70  10   0   0  20
TYR  68  40  54  36  52 /  40  10   0   0  30
GGG  71  40  55  34  53 /  40  10   0   0  30
LFK  74  42  60  37  56 /  40  10   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 151031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
431 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVG NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
ATTM. HOWEVER...THUNDER QUITE SPARSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ONLY CARRY SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTM THRU MORNING. HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM EXTREME NW CWA. INTENSE SFC LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL KS...THUS...EXPECT MOST STRONGER CONVECTION
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
LATER TODAY AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...W-NW BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MOST TEMPS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE BEST RADIATION COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. MSTR
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD SEE SOME RAIN OVER
MAINLY NE TX/SE OK LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP SATURATION WILL SET UP
ONCE SFC LOW NEAR COAST DRIFTS TO SOUTH LA...AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS
OVHD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BEFORE ENDING IN TIME FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD UPCOMING WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  42  57  35  54 /  60  10   0   0  20
MLU  74  43  57  33  54 /  70  10   0   0  10
DEQ  66  35  52  30  49 /  10  10   0   0  30
TXK  68  39  52  32  50 /  60  10   0   0  20
ELD  71  39  53  32  51 /  70  10   0   0  20
TYR  68  40  54  36  52 /  40  10   0   0  30
GGG  71  40  55  34  53 /  40  10   0   0  30
LFK  74  42  60  37  56 /  40  10   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 151031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
431 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVG NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
ATTM. HOWEVER...THUNDER QUITE SPARSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ONLY CARRY SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTM THRU MORNING. HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM EXTREME NW CWA. INTENSE SFC LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL KS...THUS...EXPECT MOST STRONGER CONVECTION
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
LATER TODAY AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...W-NW BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MOST TEMPS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE BEST RADIATION COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. MSTR
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD SEE SOME RAIN OVER
MAINLY NE TX/SE OK LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP SATURATION WILL SET UP
ONCE SFC LOW NEAR COAST DRIFTS TO SOUTH LA...AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS
OVHD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BEFORE ENDING IN TIME FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD UPCOMING WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  42  57  35  54 /  60  10   0   0  20
MLU  74  43  57  33  54 /  70  10   0   0  10
DEQ  66  35  52  30  49 /  10  10   0   0  30
TXK  68  39  52  32  50 /  60  10   0   0  20
ELD  71  39  53  32  51 /  70  10   0   0  20
TYR  68  40  54  36  52 /  40  10   0   0  30
GGG  71  40  55  34  53 /  40  10   0   0  30
LFK  74  42  60  37  56 /  40  10   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









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