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000
FXUS64 KSHV 250606
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
106 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/06Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTEND WITH
TO START THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CONVECTION STILL ONGOING AT ELD/MLU.
WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED...PATCHY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH TO HEAD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEGRADATION IN VSBYS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS ANY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
WITH HEIGHT AS SFC SPEEDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW ON SATURDAY FROM
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS...THEN DROPPING OFF TO
BELOW 10 KTS BY 26/00Z. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 105
DUE STORMS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  89  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  66  87  63  76 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  51  85  58  70 /   0  10  40  50
TXK  60  85  60  71 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  60  84  58  73 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  63  88  65  74 /   0  10  30  50
GGG  63  88  63  75 /   0  10  30  50
LFK  65  89  68  79 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 250606
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
106 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/06Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTEND WITH
TO START THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CONVECTION STILL ONGOING AT ELD/MLU.
WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED...PATCHY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH TO HEAD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEGRADATION IN VSBYS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS ANY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
WITH HEIGHT AS SFC SPEEDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW ON SATURDAY FROM
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS...THEN DROPPING OFF TO
BELOW 10 KTS BY 26/00Z. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 105
DUE STORMS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  89  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  66  87  63  76 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  51  85  58  70 /   0  10  40  50
TXK  60  85  60  71 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  60  84  58  73 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  63  88  65  74 /   0  10  30  50
GGG  63  88  63  75 /   0  10  30  50
LFK  65  89  68  79 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 250458
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 105
DUE STORMS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING. /05/


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  59  86  51  85 /  40  10   0  10
TXK  65  87  60  85 /  60  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  66  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  65  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 250458
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 105
DUE STORMS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING. /05/


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  59  86  51  85 /  40  10   0  10
TXK  65  87  60  85 /  60  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  66  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  65  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 250315
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 105 NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM. CONVECTION STILL
FIRING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT DISCREET STORMS WITH BOWING FEATURES ALONG THE FRONT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT. /05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  59  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  65  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  66  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  65  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 250315
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 105 NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM. CONVECTION STILL
FIRING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT DISCREET STORMS WITH BOWING FEATURES ALONG THE FRONT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT. /05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  59  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  65  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  66  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  65  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 250315
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 105 NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM. CONVECTION STILL
FIRING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT DISCREET STORMS WITH BOWING FEATURES ALONG THE FRONT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT. /05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  59  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  65  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  66  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  65  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 250315
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 105 NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM. CONVECTION STILL
FIRING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT DISCREET STORMS WITH BOWING FEATURES ALONG THE FRONT.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT. /05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  59  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  65  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  66  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  65  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 250038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/00Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS IN PLACE TO START THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH A WARM FRONT STRADDLING THE AR/LA BORDER AND THEN
SNAKING BACK NWWRD OVER EXTREME NE TX. THIS IS RESULTING IN LIFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TXK/ELD NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE MVFR/LOW
VFR CIGS ARE SEEN FARTHER SOUTH AT OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. A LINE
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR TXK EXTENDING SWWRD ALONG I-30
AS A MORE INTENSE LINE OF STORMS REMAINS TO OUR WEST NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX. AVIATION CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS WITH THESE STORMS THIS
EVENING TO INCLUDE SEVERE TURBULENCE...MIXED ICING...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WINDS ARE VEERING OFF THE DECK WITH MOSTLY S/SE WINDS
AT THE SFC AND BECOMING MORE W/SW ALOFT...SPEEDS NEAR AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY EXCEED 50 KTS AT THE SFC. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM W TO E.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 103 THROUGH
10 PM TONIGHT. STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  62  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  68  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  69  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  68  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 250038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/00Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS IN PLACE TO START THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH A WARM FRONT STRADDLING THE AR/LA BORDER AND THEN
SNAKING BACK NWWRD OVER EXTREME NE TX. THIS IS RESULTING IN LIFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TXK/ELD NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE MVFR/LOW
VFR CIGS ARE SEEN FARTHER SOUTH AT OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. A LINE
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR TXK EXTENDING SWWRD ALONG I-30
AS A MORE INTENSE LINE OF STORMS REMAINS TO OUR WEST NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX. AVIATION CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS WITH THESE STORMS THIS
EVENING TO INCLUDE SEVERE TURBULENCE...MIXED ICING...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WINDS ARE VEERING OFF THE DECK WITH MOSTLY S/SE WINDS
AT THE SFC AND BECOMING MORE W/SW ALOFT...SPEEDS NEAR AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY EXCEED 50 KTS AT THE SFC. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM W TO E.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 103 THROUGH
10 PM TONIGHT. STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  62  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  68  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  69  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  68  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 242207
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
507 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 103 THROUGH
10 PM TONIGHT. STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. /05/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z.

VII

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  62  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  68  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  69  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  68  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 242207
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
507 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 103 THROUGH
10 PM TONIGHT. STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. /05/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z.

VII

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  62  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  68  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  69  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  68  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 242026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z.

VII

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  62  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  68  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  69  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  68  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 242026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z.

VII

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  62  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  68  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  69  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  68  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 242026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z.

VII

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  89  64  89 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  70  87  66  87 /  60  30  10  10
DEQ  62  86  51  85 /  80  10   0  10
TXK  68  87  60  85 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  68  85  60  84 /  60  20   0  10
TYR  69  89  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
GGG  68  88  63  88 /  60  10   0  10
LFK  70  89  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241802
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST
BEING INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL TX AND THE SECOND BEING INCREASING COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE FIRST IS DUE IN PART TO A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT
SWINGING NE FROM CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO HAS
SOME SURFACE SUPPORT AS AN ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEARLY
STAGNATED FROM N TX...SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR INTO SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OF A MORE
ELEVATED NATURE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IS
SITUATED AGAIN WITH STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...RAISED RAIN CHANCES WHERE THESE TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF PRECIP WERE OBSERVED. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON JUST HOW MUCH
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE
TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND THIS MAY BE THE BREAK
NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN HALF TO WARM UP AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IF
WE CAN GET THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  74  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  67  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  70  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  70  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  78  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  77  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  80  71  91  67 /  80  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 241802
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST
BEING INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL TX AND THE SECOND BEING INCREASING COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE FIRST IS DUE IN PART TO A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT
SWINGING NE FROM CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO HAS
SOME SURFACE SUPPORT AS AN ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEARLY
STAGNATED FROM N TX...SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR INTO SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OF A MORE
ELEVATED NATURE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IS
SITUATED AGAIN WITH STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...RAISED RAIN CHANCES WHERE THESE TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF PRECIP WERE OBSERVED. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON JUST HOW MUCH
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE
TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND THIS MAY BE THE BREAK
NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN HALF TO WARM UP AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IF
WE CAN GET THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  74  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  67  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  70  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  70  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  78  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  77  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  80  71  91  67 /  80  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241532
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1032 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST
BEING INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL TX AND THE SECOND BEING INCREASING COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE FIRST IS DUE IN PART TO A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT
SWINGING NE FROM CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO HAS
SOME SURFACE SUPPORT AS AN ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEARLY
STAGNATED FROM N TX...SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR INTO SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OF A MORE
ELEVATED NATURE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IS
SITUATED AGAIN WITH STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...RAISED RAIN CHANCES WHERE THESE TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF PRECIP WERE OBSERVED. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON JUST HOW MUCH
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE
TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND THIS MAY BE THE BREAK
NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN HALF TO WARM UP AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IF
WE CAN GET THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS N ALONG I-30 AS A WARM FRONT IS RETURNING
NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA FM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS
TX/OK AT PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A SQ LINE(S) OF TSTMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING TO
S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE ALREADY S/SE
5-25KTS TO 2KFT...THEN VEER TO ALL SW/W ALOFT 20-50KTS TO
20KFT...AND DUE WEST AT 75KTS BY FL240. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  74  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  67  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  70  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  70  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  78  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  77  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  80  71  91  67 /  80  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 241532
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1032 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST
BEING INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL TX AND THE SECOND BEING INCREASING COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE FIRST IS DUE IN PART TO A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT
SWINGING NE FROM CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO HAS
SOME SURFACE SUPPORT AS AN ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEARLY
STAGNATED FROM N TX...SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR INTO SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OF A MORE
ELEVATED NATURE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IS
SITUATED AGAIN WITH STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...RAISED RAIN CHANCES WHERE THESE TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF PRECIP WERE OBSERVED. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON JUST HOW MUCH
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE
TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND THIS MAY BE THE BREAK
NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN HALF TO WARM UP AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IF
WE CAN GET THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS N ALONG I-30 AS A WARM FRONT IS RETURNING
NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA FM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS
TX/OK AT PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A SQ LINE(S) OF TSTMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING TO
S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE ALREADY S/SE
5-25KTS TO 2KFT...THEN VEER TO ALL SW/W ALOFT 20-50KTS TO
20KFT...AND DUE WEST AT 75KTS BY FL240. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  74  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  67  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  70  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  70  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  78  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  77  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  80  71  91  67 /  80  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241313
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
813 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS N ALONG I-30 AS A WARM FRONT IS RETURNING
NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA FM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS
TX/OK AT PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A SQ LINE(S) OF TSTMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING TO
S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE ALREADY S/SE
5-25KTS TO 2KFT...THEN VEER TO ALL SW/W ALOFT 20-50KTS TO
20KFT...AND DUE WEST AT 75KTS BY FL240. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST WILL BE PROVIDING A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HAVE AID FROM A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES THAT WILL BE PROVIDING
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE...WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH STRONGER AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL COME A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE EAST WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WITH A NEARLY ZONALFLOW
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FRY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  81  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  74  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  77  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  77  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  81  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  82  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  84  71  91  67 /  70  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241313
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
813 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS N ALONG I-30 AS A WARM FRONT IS RETURNING
NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA FM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS
TX/OK AT PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A SQ LINE(S) OF TSTMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING TO
S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE ALREADY S/SE
5-25KTS TO 2KFT...THEN VEER TO ALL SW/W ALOFT 20-50KTS TO
20KFT...AND DUE WEST AT 75KTS BY FL240. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST WILL BE PROVIDING A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HAVE AID FROM A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES THAT WILL BE PROVIDING
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE...WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH STRONGER AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL COME A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE EAST WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WITH A NEARLY ZONALFLOW
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FRY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  81  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  74  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  77  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  77  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  81  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  82  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  84  71  91  67 /  70  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 241313
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
813 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS N ALONG I-30 AS A WARM FRONT IS RETURNING
NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA FM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS
TX/OK AT PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A SQ LINE(S) OF TSTMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING TO
S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE ALREADY S/SE
5-25KTS TO 2KFT...THEN VEER TO ALL SW/W ALOFT 20-50KTS TO
20KFT...AND DUE WEST AT 75KTS BY FL240. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST WILL BE PROVIDING A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HAVE AID FROM A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES THAT WILL BE PROVIDING
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE...WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH STRONGER AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL COME A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE EAST WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WITH A NEARLY ZONALFLOW
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FRY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  81  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  74  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  77  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  77  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  81  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  82  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  84  71  91  67 /  70  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 241313
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
813 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS N ALONG I-30 AS A WARM FRONT IS RETURNING
NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA FM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS
TX/OK AT PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A SQ LINE(S) OF TSTMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING TO
S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE ALREADY S/SE
5-25KTS TO 2KFT...THEN VEER TO ALL SW/W ALOFT 20-50KTS TO
20KFT...AND DUE WEST AT 75KTS BY FL240. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST WILL BE PROVIDING A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HAVE AID FROM A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES THAT WILL BE PROVIDING
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE...WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH STRONGER AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL COME A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE EAST WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WITH A NEARLY ZONALFLOW
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FRY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  81  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  74  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  77  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  77  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  81  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  82  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  84  71  91  67 /  70  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241055
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST WILL BE PROVIDING A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HAVE AID FROM A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES THAT WILL BE PROVIDING
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE...WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH STRONGER AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL COME A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE EAST WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WITH A NEARLY ZONALFLOW
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FRY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  81  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  74  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  77  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  77  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  81  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  82  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  84  71  91  67 /  70  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 241055
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST WILL BE PROVIDING A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HAVE AID FROM A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES THAT WILL BE PROVIDING
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE...WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH STRONGER AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL COME A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE EAST WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WITH A NEARLY ZONALFLOW
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FRY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  81  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  74  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  77  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  77  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  81  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  82  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  84  71  91  67 /  70  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 241055
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST WILL BE PROVIDING A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HAVE AID FROM A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES THAT WILL BE PROVIDING
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE...WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH STRONGER AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL COME A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE EAST WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WITH A NEARLY ZONALFLOW
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FRY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  81  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  74  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  77  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  77  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  81  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  82  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  84  71  91  67 /  70  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241055
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MEXICO AND BAJA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST WILL BE PROVIDING A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HAVE AID FROM A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES THAT WILL BE PROVIDING
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE...WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT EJECTING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH STRONGER AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL COME A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE EAST WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT WITH A NEARLY ZONALFLOW
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FRY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  81  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  74  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  77  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  77  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  81  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  82  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  84  71  91  67 /  70  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240630
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
130 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/06Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD LOW STRATUS AND SPOTTY SHWRS BY DAYBREAK AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS TX/OK AT
PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A STRONG LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BE VEERING TO S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE
ALREADY S/SE 10-30KTS VEERING TO ALL W ALOFT 100KTS BY FL300. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM
FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
/20/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  87  63  88 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  69  89  63  87 /  70  30  10  10
DEQ  62  85  54  83 /  50  10   0  10
TXK  66  88  59  85 /  60  10   0  10
ELD  66  88  59  85 /  70  20   0  10
TYR  67  87  63  87 /  50  10   0  10
GGG  68  90  63  88 /  50  10   0  10
LFK  71  90  65  90 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05/20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 240630
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
130 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/06Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD LOW STRATUS AND SPOTTY SHWRS BY DAYBREAK AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS TX/OK AT
PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A STRONG LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BE VEERING TO S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE
ALREADY S/SE 10-30KTS VEERING TO ALL W ALOFT 100KTS BY FL300. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM
FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
/20/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  87  63  88 /  60  20   0  10
MLU  69  89  63  87 /  70  30  10  10
DEQ  62  85  54  83 /  50  10   0  10
TXK  66  88  59  85 /  60  10   0  10
ELD  66  88  59  85 /  70  20   0  10
TYR  67  87  63  87 /  50  10   0  10
GGG  68  90  63  88 /  50  10   0  10
LFK  71  90  65  90 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05/20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240222
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
922 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM
FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  60  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  56  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  58  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  58  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  66  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  65  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  70  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240222
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
922 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM
FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  60  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  56  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  58  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  58  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  66  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  65  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  70  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 240222
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
922 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM
FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  60  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  56  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  58  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  58  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  66  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  65  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  70  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 240222
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
922 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
HOUR WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM
FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. EXPECTING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  60  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  56  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  58  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  58  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  66  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  65  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  70  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS OBSERVED ACROSS OUR
AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
OCCURRED SOUTH OF I-20 AT LFK. FARTHER NORTH...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE OUR REMAINING SITES BUT SOME OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHWRS OVER E TX
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD IN S AR/N LA AS A WARM FRONT RETURNS NWRD
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS TX/OK...DRIVING A STRONG LINE OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING
FROM ELY TO S/SELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
BACK NWRD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  64  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  58  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  61  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  59  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  68  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  67  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  72  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS OBSERVED ACROSS OUR
AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
OCCURRED SOUTH OF I-20 AT LFK. FARTHER NORTH...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE OUR REMAINING SITES BUT SOME OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHWRS OVER E TX
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD IN S AR/N LA AS A WARM FRONT RETURNS NWRD
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS TX/OK...DRIVING A STRONG LINE OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING
FROM ELY TO S/SELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
BACK NWRD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  64  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  58  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  61  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  59  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  68  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  67  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  72  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS OBSERVED ACROSS OUR
AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
OCCURRED SOUTH OF I-20 AT LFK. FARTHER NORTH...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE OUR REMAINING SITES BUT SOME OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHWRS OVER E TX
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD IN S AR/N LA AS A WARM FRONT RETURNS NWRD
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS TX/OK...DRIVING A STRONG LINE OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING
FROM ELY TO S/SELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
BACK NWRD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  64  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  58  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  61  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  59  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  68  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  67  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  72  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 240009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS OBSERVED ACROSS OUR
AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
OCCURRED SOUTH OF I-20 AT LFK. FARTHER NORTH...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE OUR REMAINING SITES BUT SOME OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHWRS OVER E TX
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD IN S AR/N LA AS A WARM FRONT RETURNS NWRD
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS TX/OK...DRIVING A STRONG LINE OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING
FROM ELY TO S/SELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
BACK NWRD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  64  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  58  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  61  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  59  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  68  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  67  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  72  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232135
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAFS...BAND OF SHWRS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
THE LA/AR STATE LINE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. KELD COULD BE BRIEFLY BRUSHED BY SOME OF THESE SHWRS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS PERSIST WITH A FEW PATCHY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR RANGE
BEFORE MORE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 24/06Z. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 24/06Z BUT THOSE CHANCES SEEM RATHER LOW. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. /09/


PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  64  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  58  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  61  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  59  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  68  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  67  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  72  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232135
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAFS...BAND OF SHWRS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
THE LA/AR STATE LINE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. KELD COULD BE BRIEFLY BRUSHED BY SOME OF THESE SHWRS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS PERSIST WITH A FEW PATCHY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR RANGE
BEFORE MORE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 24/06Z. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 24/06Z BUT THOSE CHANCES SEEM RATHER LOW. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. /09/


PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  64  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  58  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  61  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  59  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  68  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  67  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  72  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 232135
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAFS...BAND OF SHWRS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
THE LA/AR STATE LINE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. KELD COULD BE BRIEFLY BRUSHED BY SOME OF THESE SHWRS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS PERSIST WITH A FEW PATCHY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR RANGE
BEFORE MORE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 24/06Z. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 24/06Z BUT THOSE CHANCES SEEM RATHER LOW. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. /09/


PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  64  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  58  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  61  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  59  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  68  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  67  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  72  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 232135
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NE
LOUISIANA FROM THE MCS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ITS BEEN A QUIET
CLOUDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LEAVING BEHIND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS HAS A SFC BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE LOUISIANA
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND...TO NATCHITOCHES...TO MONROE. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. BUT...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAFS...BAND OF SHWRS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
THE LA/AR STATE LINE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. KELD COULD BE BRIEFLY BRUSHED BY SOME OF THESE SHWRS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS PERSIST WITH A FEW PATCHY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR RANGE
BEFORE MORE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 24/06Z. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 24/06Z BUT THOSE CHANCES SEEM RATHER LOW. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. /09/


PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  64  82  69  89 /  20  70  70  30
DEQ  58  74  62  85 /  40  70  50  10
TXK  61  77  66  88 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  59  77  66  88 /  20  70  70  20
TYR  68  81  67  87 /  40  70  50  10
GGG  67  82  68  90 /  40  70  50  10
LFK  72  84  71  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAFS...BAND OF SHWRS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
THE LA/AR STATE LINE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. KELD COULD BE BRIEFLY BRUSHED BY SOME OF THESE SHWRS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS PERSIST WITH A FEW PATCHY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR RANGE
BEFORE MORE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 24/06Z. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 24/06Z BUT THOSE CHANCES SEEM RATHER LOW. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS NE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVE SOUTH AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS GAVE WAY TO DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DOWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THIS MORNINGS MCS
WILL LIKELY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER SFC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD./20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAFS...BAND OF SHWRS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
THE LA/AR STATE LINE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. KELD COULD BE BRIEFLY BRUSHED BY SOME OF THESE SHWRS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS PERSIST WITH A FEW PATCHY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR RANGE
BEFORE MORE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 24/06Z. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 24/06Z BUT THOSE CHANCES SEEM RATHER LOW. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS NE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVE SOUTH AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS GAVE WAY TO DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DOWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THIS MORNINGS MCS
WILL LIKELY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER SFC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD./20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAFS...BAND OF SHWRS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
THE LA/AR STATE LINE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. KELD COULD BE BRIEFLY BRUSHED BY SOME OF THESE SHWRS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS PERSIST WITH A FEW PATCHY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR RANGE
BEFORE MORE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 24/06Z. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 24/06Z BUT THOSE CHANCES SEEM RATHER LOW. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS NE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVE SOUTH AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS GAVE WAY TO DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DOWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THIS MORNINGS MCS
WILL LIKELY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER SFC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD./20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAFS...BAND OF SHWRS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
THE LA/AR STATE LINE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. KELD COULD BE BRIEFLY BRUSHED BY SOME OF THESE SHWRS BUT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS PERSIST WITH A FEW PATCHY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR RANGE
BEFORE MORE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 24/06Z. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 24/06Z BUT THOSE CHANCES SEEM RATHER LOW. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS NE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVE SOUTH AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS GAVE WAY TO DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DOWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THIS MORNINGS MCS
WILL LIKELY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER SFC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD./20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231521
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS NE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVE SOUTH AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS GAVE WAY TO DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DOWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THIS MORNINGS MCS
WILL LIKELY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER SFC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231521
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS NE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVE SOUTH AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS GAVE WAY TO DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DOWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THIS MORNINGS MCS
WILL LIKELY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER SFC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231521
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS NE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVE SOUTH AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS GAVE WAY TO DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DOWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THIS MORNINGS MCS
WILL LIKELY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER SFC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231521
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS NE TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
MOVE SOUTH AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THIS HAS GAVE WAY TO DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS DOWN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THIS MORNINGS MCS
WILL LIKELY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER SFC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...THE N TX MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ESE
GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALONG
AND N OF WHAT IS LEFT OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WAS REINFORCED SWD
INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. SFC ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FARTHER N THAT CONTINUES TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SW AR THIS MORNING /PER SFC THETA-E PLOTS/...WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY REINFORCING THIS FRONT SWD INTO
NRN LA/NE TX LATER TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE SOMEWHAT
INITIALIZED ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE BASED THE DAYTIME
FORECAST ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS INITILIZED BEST WITH THE SFC
BNDRYS/ONGOING CONVECTION. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBLTE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN
OK...WHICH WILL SHIFT E INTO AR THIS MORNING...THUS MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
MORNING ALONG/N OF I-20 WHERE THE SFC BNDRY IS CURRENTLY...BEFORE
DROPPING POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM
THIS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS AS THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE
WORKED OVER EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE
STRONGER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIE. DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RECOVERY TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON S OF THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH ONLY MINIMAL RISES FARTHER N.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WORK
BACK N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/ADJACENT SW AR LATE...BEFORE MIXING
RAPIDLY N FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ
OVER N TX/MUCH OF OK AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN LATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...THAT WILL
EJECT NE AND OPEN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AND TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING ENE ACROSS OK/TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS INDICATE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE BECOMING SCOURED IN
WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S MCS...AND WAITING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY YIELD
IN ADDITIONAL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE OVER SE OK/NE
TX/ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RELOAD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT E INTO ECNTRL OK TO JUST W OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING ITS EWD PROGRESS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHIFTS E INTO THE AREA. BROAD BUT STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ATOP THE RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH
COULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND ADVANCE ENE THROUGH THE EVENING.
PW/S SHOULD ALSO RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE /PER
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/...WITH STRONG FORCING VIA MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS AND ALOFT ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AS CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF SVR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS/WRF STALLING THE BNDRY OVER SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AIR E ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SFC BNDRY MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
SVR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPES CLIMB TO
1500-2000+ J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE ADVECTED E AS
WELL...AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH SHOULD STORMS BE
ABLE TO INITIATE. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR AS WSW WINDS AND THE DRYING AIR MASS YIELD
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY 90 DEGREES.

NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL RULE...ALTHOUGH ALL EYES WILL SHIFT TO THE W AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS/DROPS SE INTO AZ/NM LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSIDERABLE TIMING AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW...WITH AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FASTER/MORE
NEGATIVE TILT SOLUTION OF THE GFS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE ECMWF FAVORING A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES APPEAR THE CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG/E OF THE MS RIVER...AND RIDGING OUT
W...FAVORING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  81  69 /  60  30  70  60
MLU  78  64  80  70 /  70  20  70  70
DEQ  68  59  74  64 /  70  40  70  50
TXK  70  61  76  67 /  70  30  70  60
ELD  70  59  76  68 /  70  20  70  70
TYR  81  70  80  68 /  60  40  70  50
GGG  80  69  81  68 /  60  40  70  50
LFK  85  71  83  70 /  40  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230533
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/06Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS ACROSS
SE OK/SW AR/E TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHWRS/TSTMS. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS N TX AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD. IF IT DOES
NOT DISSIPATE...THIS COMPLEX COULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
AS EARLY AS 23/09Z-23/10Z. ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ALONG A COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 24/00Z BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO JENA.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF PALESTINE
TEXAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. MODELS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  79  70  88 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  65  78  71  87 /  20  70  60  30
DEQ  59  73  65  85 /  40  70  40  10
TXK  63  75  68  85 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  61  73  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
TYR  70  77  68  87 /  40  70  40  10
GGG  70  77  69  87 /  40  70  40  20
LFK  72  81  72  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230533
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/06Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS ACROSS
SE OK/SW AR/E TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHWRS/TSTMS. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS N TX AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD. IF IT DOES
NOT DISSIPATE...THIS COMPLEX COULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
AS EARLY AS 23/09Z-23/10Z. ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ALONG A COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 24/00Z BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO JENA.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF PALESTINE
TEXAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. MODELS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  79  70  88 /  30  70  60  20
MLU  65  78  71  87 /  20  70  60  30
DEQ  59  73  65  85 /  40  70  40  10
TXK  63  75  68  85 /  30  70  60  10
ELD  61  73  69  87 /  30  70  60  20
TYR  70  77  68  87 /  40  70  40  10
GGG  70  77  69  87 /  40  70  40  20
LFK  72  81  72  90 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230212
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
912 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO JENA.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF PALESTINE
TEXAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. MODELS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230212
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
912 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO JENA.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF PALESTINE
TEXAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. MODELS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230212
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
912 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO JENA.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF PALESTINE
TEXAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. MODELS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230212
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
912 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO JENA.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF PALESTINE
TEXAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. MODELS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230001
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
TIME BEING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OVER TX/OK AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG A COLD FRONT MOST
LIKELY AFTER 23/06Z. PER LATEST SFC OBS AND RADAR LOOPS...FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INITIALLY BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS OF
THURSDAY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTN CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE AR/LA STATE LINE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
IN COVERAGE AND GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL DATA RECEIVED FROM 18Z
SOUNDING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SPARSE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL TX CREEPING EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING STG
CONVECTION. THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND REACH NE TX LATER
TONIGHT...AND THEN FOCUS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
CWA...BUT MOVG SWD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...EXPECTING A QUIET
DAY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO
CENTRAL TX FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL BLANKET LIKELY TSTMS AREAWIDE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONCENTRATION WILL MAINLY FOLLOW MVMNT OF THIS
FRONT. STG LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR UNDERNEATH A LOW LVL JET NEAR
40 KTS...AND DRYING LOW LVL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED MID LVL IN WARM
SECTOR...MAY CREATE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF SFC FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS WKND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 90. SLOW MOVG UPPER LOW
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE MID WEEK BEFORE DEEPER NW FLOW CLEARS
OUT REMAINING WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230001
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
TIME BEING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OVER TX/OK AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG A COLD FRONT MOST
LIKELY AFTER 23/06Z. PER LATEST SFC OBS AND RADAR LOOPS...FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INITIALLY BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS OF
THURSDAY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTN CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE AR/LA STATE LINE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
IN COVERAGE AND GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL DATA RECEIVED FROM 18Z
SOUNDING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SPARSE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL TX CREEPING EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING STG
CONVECTION. THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND REACH NE TX LATER
TONIGHT...AND THEN FOCUS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
CWA...BUT MOVG SWD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...EXPECTING A QUIET
DAY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO
CENTRAL TX FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL BLANKET LIKELY TSTMS AREAWIDE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONCENTRATION WILL MAINLY FOLLOW MVMNT OF THIS
FRONT. STG LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR UNDERNEATH A LOW LVL JET NEAR
40 KTS...AND DRYING LOW LVL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED MID LVL IN WARM
SECTOR...MAY CREATE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF SFC FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS WKND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 90. SLOW MOVG UPPER LOW
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE MID WEEK BEFORE DEEPER NW FLOW CLEARS
OUT REMAINING WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 222029
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTN CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE AR/LA STATE LINE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
IN COVERAGE AND GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL DATA RECEIVED FROM 18Z
SOUNDING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SPARSE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL TX CREEPING EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING STG
CONVECTION. THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND REACH NE TX LATER
TONIGHT...AND THEN FOCUS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
CWA...BUT MOVG SWD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...EXPECTING A QUIET
DAY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO
CENTRAL TX FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL BLANKET LIKELY TSTMS AREAWIDE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONCENTRATION WILL MAINLY FOLLOW MVMNT OF THIS
FRONT. STG LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR UNDERNEATH A LOW LVL JET NEAR
40 KTS...AND DRYING LOW LVL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED MID LVL IN WARM
SECTOR...MAY CREATE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF SFC FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS WKND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 90. SLOW MOVG UPPER LOW
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE MID WEEK BEFORE DEEPER NW FLOW CLEARS
OUT REMAINING WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER SW AR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS ASIDE
FROM KTXK. LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RED RIVER AND MOVE SEWD INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS...SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS ASIDE FROM THE USE OF
VCTS. OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING LL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE...
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES AFTER AROUND
09Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 222029
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTN CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE AR/LA STATE LINE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
IN COVERAGE AND GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL DATA RECEIVED FROM 18Z
SOUNDING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SPARSE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL TX CREEPING EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING STG
CONVECTION. THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND REACH NE TX LATER
TONIGHT...AND THEN FOCUS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
CWA...BUT MOVG SWD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...EXPECTING A QUIET
DAY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO
CENTRAL TX FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL BLANKET LIKELY TSTMS AREAWIDE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONCENTRATION WILL MAINLY FOLLOW MVMNT OF THIS
FRONT. STG LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR UNDERNEATH A LOW LVL JET NEAR
40 KTS...AND DRYING LOW LVL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED MID LVL IN WARM
SECTOR...MAY CREATE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF SFC FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS WKND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 90. SLOW MOVG UPPER LOW
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE MID WEEK BEFORE DEEPER NW FLOW CLEARS
OUT REMAINING WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER SW AR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS ASIDE
FROM KTXK. LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RED RIVER AND MOVE SEWD INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS...SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS ASIDE FROM THE USE OF
VCTS. OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING LL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE...
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES AFTER AROUND
09Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 222029
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTN CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE AR/LA STATE LINE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
IN COVERAGE AND GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL DATA RECEIVED FROM 18Z
SOUNDING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SPARSE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL TX CREEPING EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING STG
CONVECTION. THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND REACH NE TX LATER
TONIGHT...AND THEN FOCUS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
CWA...BUT MOVG SWD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...EXPECTING A QUIET
DAY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO
CENTRAL TX FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL BLANKET LIKELY TSTMS AREAWIDE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONCENTRATION WILL MAINLY FOLLOW MVMNT OF THIS
FRONT. STG LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR UNDERNEATH A LOW LVL JET NEAR
40 KTS...AND DRYING LOW LVL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED MID LVL IN WARM
SECTOR...MAY CREATE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF SFC FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS WKND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 90. SLOW MOVG UPPER LOW
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE MID WEEK BEFORE DEEPER NW FLOW CLEARS
OUT REMAINING WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER SW AR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS ASIDE
FROM KTXK. LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RED RIVER AND MOVE SEWD INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS...SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS ASIDE FROM THE USE OF
VCTS. OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING LL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE...
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES AFTER AROUND
09Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 222029
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTN CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE AR/LA STATE LINE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
IN COVERAGE AND GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL DATA RECEIVED FROM 18Z
SOUNDING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SPARSE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL TX CREEPING EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING STG
CONVECTION. THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND REACH NE TX LATER
TONIGHT...AND THEN FOCUS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
CWA...BUT MOVG SWD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...EXPECTING A QUIET
DAY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO
CENTRAL TX FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL BLANKET LIKELY TSTMS AREAWIDE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONCENTRATION WILL MAINLY FOLLOW MVMNT OF THIS
FRONT. STG LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR UNDERNEATH A LOW LVL JET NEAR
40 KTS...AND DRYING LOW LVL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED MID LVL IN WARM
SECTOR...MAY CREATE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF SFC FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS WKND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 90. SLOW MOVG UPPER LOW
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE MID WEEK BEFORE DEEPER NW FLOW CLEARS
OUT REMAINING WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER SW AR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS ASIDE
FROM KTXK. LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RED RIVER AND MOVE SEWD INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS...SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS ASIDE FROM THE USE OF
VCTS. OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING LL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE...
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES AFTER AROUND
09Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  68  79 /  50  30  30  70
MLU  64  77  65  78 /  50  20  20  70
DEQ  59  67  59  73 /  60  30  40  70
TXK  61  71  63  75 /  60  30  30  70
ELD  61  71  61  73 /  60  20  30  70
TYR  66  81  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
GGG  66  80  70  77 /  40  30  40  70
LFK  69  85  72  81 /  40  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221841
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
141 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER SW AR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS ASIDE
FROM KTXK. LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RED RIVER AND MOVE SEWD INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS...SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS ASIDE FROM THE USE OF
VCTS. OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING LL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE...
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES AFTER AROUND
09Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING MCS MOVG INTO RED RIVER VALLEY. GOOD DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM OUTFLOW THAT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO SW AR/NW TX AND NW LA THIS AFTN. BETWEEN AIRMASS
RECOVERY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAR THIS MCS...AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS REST OF AREA...EXPECT STG
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
THUS...LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN LA...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
ALSO RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS ROUGHLY THESE
SAME AREAS WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING...WITH AN EXTENSIVE
BAND OF 5-6KFT CIGS HAVING DEVELOPED/SPREAD ENE ALONG AND S OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA/E TX. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...AS A SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER
NW TX. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER OF N
TX ESE ACROSS NE TX AND TO NEAR THE AR/LA LINE BY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S TODAY BEFORE
TEMPORARILY BECOMING STATIONARY FROM SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. THE
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW/ATTENDANT LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES SW THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DRIVING AN INCREASE IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER WRN OK...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES ALONG A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN NM THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
ATOP THE FLAT SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN THOUGH
WHETHER THE CURRENT WRN OK CONVECTION MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION
EARLIER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE MAX DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...THUS TAPERING THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THE 00Z PROGS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT ALL IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION
PLACEMENT/TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE NEW 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NE TX DURING PEAK HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING
LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING E OF I-35
ACROSS ECNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TODAY THAN TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION INITIATION AND PLACEMENT.

DID MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH SVR WORDING THIS AFTERNOON NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR ALONG/JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT...TAPERING
CHANCE POPS DOWN A TAD FARTHER E WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS A
BIT WEAKER AND THIS REGION IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE TWO LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR N AND W. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SHIFT ESE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT /PER THE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
ECMWF/...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
DID CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SE OK/SW AR OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PULLING UP
STATIONARY OVER N LA/E TX THURSDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE BNDRY MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD KEEP QPF AMOUNTS LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION INITIATION THURSDAY ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT. BUT ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SVR THREAT...THUS HAVE REMOVED SVR
MENTION FROM THE FORECAST THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SVR STORM WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

WILL BE WATCHING THE CLOSED SRN CA UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OPENS UP THURSDAY
NIGHT...ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE WILL SET UP A STRONG
SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING OVER
THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THUS LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS OK/AR FRIDAY
AND HENCE BROADENING THE WARM SECTOR. THE W TX DRYLINE WILL MIX E
INTO ERN OK TO JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SCT TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION AREAWIDE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW
LEVEL WINDS DO VEER MORE ACROSS THE REGION WELL E OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY...WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW NOTED ABOVE 850MB. GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP LYR SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ADVECT
ENE AHEAD OF THE EJECTING TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THUS TAPERING
THE CONVECTION FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DRYLINE PULLING UP
STATIONARY JUST W OF THE REGION. THIS BNDRY SHOULD MIX E ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AS WLY WINDS INCREASE BENEATH THE MIDWEST SFC
CYCLONE...RESULTING IN PERHAPS THE WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS
SPRING SEASON AS READING CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 80S AND POSSIBLY
90 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SVR THREAT FOR THE REGION BY THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AMONGST THE FASTER
GFS/SLOWER ECMWF PRECLUDES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ATTM. HOWEVER...THE
PROGS DO CONVERGE ON A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS SPILLING S ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  64  77  67 /  30  70  40  30
MLU  83  63  77  64 /  20  70  40  20
DEQ  76  58  67  58 /  50  70  40  40
TXK  77  60  71  62 /  40  70  40  30
ELD  80  60  71  60 /  30  70  40  30
TYR  79  65  81  69 /  40  60  30  40
GGG  80  65  80  69 /  30  60  30  40
LFK  84  68  85  71 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221841
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
141 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER SW AR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINALS ASIDE
FROM KTXK. LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RED RIVER AND MOVE SEWD INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS...SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS ASIDE FROM THE USE OF
VCTS. OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING LL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE...
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES AFTER AROUND
09Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING MCS MOVG INTO RED RIVER VALLEY. GOOD DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM OUTFLOW THAT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO SW AR/NW TX AND NW LA THIS AFTN. BETWEEN AIRMASS
RECOVERY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAR THIS MCS...AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS REST OF AREA...EXPECT STG
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
THUS...LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN LA...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
ALSO RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS ROUGHLY THESE
SAME AREAS WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING...WITH AN EXTENSIVE
BAND OF 5-6KFT CIGS HAVING DEVELOPED/SPREAD ENE ALONG AND S OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA/E TX. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...AS A SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER
NW TX. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER OF N
TX ESE ACROSS NE TX AND TO NEAR THE AR/LA LINE BY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S TODAY BEFORE
TEMPORARILY BECOMING STATIONARY FROM SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. THE
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW/ATTENDANT LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES SW THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DRIVING AN INCREASE IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER WRN OK...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES ALONG A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN NM THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
ATOP THE FLAT SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN THOUGH
WHETHER THE CURRENT WRN OK CONVECTION MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION
EARLIER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE MAX DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...THUS TAPERING THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THE 00Z PROGS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT ALL IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION
PLACEMENT/TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE NEW 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NE TX DURING PEAK HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING
LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING E OF I-35
ACROSS ECNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TODAY THAN TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION INITIATION AND PLACEMENT.

DID MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH SVR WORDING THIS AFTERNOON NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR ALONG/JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT...TAPERING
CHANCE POPS DOWN A TAD FARTHER E WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS A
BIT WEAKER AND THIS REGION IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE TWO LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR N AND W. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SHIFT ESE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT /PER THE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
ECMWF/...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
DID CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SE OK/SW AR OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PULLING UP
STATIONARY OVER N LA/E TX THURSDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE BNDRY MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD KEEP QPF AMOUNTS LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION INITIATION THURSDAY ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT. BUT ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SVR THREAT...THUS HAVE REMOVED SVR
MENTION FROM THE FORECAST THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SVR STORM WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

WILL BE WATCHING THE CLOSED SRN CA UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OPENS UP THURSDAY
NIGHT...ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE WILL SET UP A STRONG
SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING OVER
THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THUS LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS OK/AR FRIDAY
AND HENCE BROADENING THE WARM SECTOR. THE W TX DRYLINE WILL MIX E
INTO ERN OK TO JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SCT TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION AREAWIDE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW
LEVEL WINDS DO VEER MORE ACROSS THE REGION WELL E OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY...WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW NOTED ABOVE 850MB. GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP LYR SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ADVECT
ENE AHEAD OF THE EJECTING TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THUS TAPERING
THE CONVECTION FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DRYLINE PULLING UP
STATIONARY JUST W OF THE REGION. THIS BNDRY SHOULD MIX E ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AS WLY WINDS INCREASE BENEATH THE MIDWEST SFC
CYCLONE...RESULTING IN PERHAPS THE WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS
SPRING SEASON AS READING CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 80S AND POSSIBLY
90 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SVR THREAT FOR THE REGION BY THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AMONGST THE FASTER
GFS/SLOWER ECMWF PRECLUDES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ATTM. HOWEVER...THE
PROGS DO CONVERGE ON A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS SPILLING S ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  64  77  67 /  30  70  40  30
MLU  83  63  77  64 /  20  70  40  20
DEQ  76  58  67  58 /  50  70  40  40
TXK  77  60  71  62 /  40  70  40  30
ELD  80  60  71  60 /  30  70  40  30
TYR  79  65  81  69 /  40  60  30  40
GGG  80  65  80  69 /  30  60  30  40
LFK  84  68  85  71 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221538
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1038 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING MCS MOVG INTO RED RIVER VALLEY. GOOD DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM OUTFLOW THAT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO SW AR/NW TX AND NW LA THIS AFTN. BETWEEN AIRMASS
RECOVERY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAR THIS MCS...AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS REST OF AREA...EXPECT STG
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
THUS...LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN LA...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
ALSO RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS ROUGHLY THESE
SAME AREAS WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING...WITH AN EXTENSIVE
BAND OF 5-6KFT CIGS HAVING DEVELOPED/SPREAD ENE ALONG AND S OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA/E TX. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE
OVER NW TX. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER
OF N TX ESE ACROSS NE TX AND TO NEAR THE AR/LA LINE BY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S TODAY BEFORE
TEMPORARILY BECOMING STATIONARY FROM SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. THE
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW/ATTENDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES SW THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DRIVING AN INCREASE IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER WRN OK...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES ALONG A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN NM THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
ATOP THE FLAT SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN THOUGH
WHETHER THE CURRENT WRN OK CONVECTION MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION
EARLIER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE MAX DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...THUS TAPERING THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THE 00Z PROGS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT ALL IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION
PLACEMENT/TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE NEW 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NE TX DURING PEAK HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING
LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING E OF I-35
ACROSS ECNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TODAY THAN TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION INITIATION AND PLACEMENT.

DID MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH SVR WORDING THIS AFTERNOON NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR ALONG/JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT...TAPERING
CHANCE POPS DOWN A TAD FARTHER E WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS A
BIT WEAKER AND THIS REGION IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE TWO LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR N AND W. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SHIFT ESE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT /PER THE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
ECMWF/...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
DID CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SE OK/SW AR OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PULLING UP
STATIONARY OVER N LA/E TX THURSDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE BNDRY MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD KEEP QPF AMOUNTS LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION INITIATION THURSDAY ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT. BUT ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SVR THREAT...THUS HAVE REMOVED SVR
MENTION FROM THE FORECAST THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SVR STORM WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

WILL BE WATCHING THE CLOSED SRN CA UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OPENS UP THURSDAY
NIGHT...ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE WILL SET UP A STRONG
SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING OVER
THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
SSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THUS LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS OK/AR FRIDAY
AND HENCE BROADING THE WARM SECTOR. THE W TX DRYLINE WILL MIX E
INTO ERN OK TO JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SCT TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION AREAWIDE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW
LEVEL WINDS DO VEER MORE ACROSS THE REGION WELL E OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY...WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW NOTED ABOVE 850MB. GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP LYR SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ADVECT
ENE AHEAD OF THE EJECTING TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THUS TAPERING
THE CONVECTION FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DRYLINE PULLING UP
STATIONARY JUST W OF THE REGION. THIS BNDRY SHOULD MIX E ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AS WRLY WINDS INCREASE BENEATH THE MIDWEST SFC
CYCLONE...RESULTING IN PERHAPS THE WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS
SRPING SEASON AS READING CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 80S AND POSSIBLY
90 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SVR THREAT FOR THE REGION BY THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH DISCREPENCIES IN TIMING AMONGST THE FASTER
GFS/SLOWER ECMWF PRECLUDES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ATTM. HOWEVER...THE
PROGS DO CONVERGE ON A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS SPILLING S ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  64  77  67 /  30  70  40  30
MLU  83  63  77  64 /  20  70  40  20
DEQ  76  58  67  58 /  50  70  40  40
TXK  77  60  71  62 /  40  70  40  30
ELD  80  60  71  60 /  30  70  40  30
TYR  79  65  81  69 /  40  60  30  40
GGG  80  65  80  69 /  30  60  30  40
LFK  84  68  85  71 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 221038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING...WITH AN EXTENSIVE
BAND OF 5-6KFT CIGS HAVING DEVELOPED/SPREAD ENE ALONG AND S OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA/E TX. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE
OVER NW TX. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER
OF N TX ESE ACROSS NE TX AND TO NEAR THE AR/LA LINE BY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S TODAY BEFORE
TEMPORARILY BECOMING STATIONARY FROM SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. THE
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW/ATTENDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES SW THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DRIVING AN INCREASE IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER WRN OK...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES ALONG A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN NM THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
ATOP THE FLAT SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN THOUGH
WHETHER THE CURRENT WRN OK CONVECTION MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION
EARLIER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE MAX DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...THUS TAPERING THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THE 00Z PROGS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT ALL IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION
PLACEMENT/TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE NEW 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NE TX DURING PEAK HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING
LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING E OF I-35
ACROSS ECNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TODAY THAN TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION INITIATION AND PLACEMENT.

DID MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH SVR WORDING THIS AFTERNOON NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR ALONG/JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT...TAPERING
CHANCE POPS DOWN A TAD FARTHER E WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS A
BIT WEAKER AND THIS REGION IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE TWO LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR N AND W. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SHIFT ESE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT /PER THE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
ECMWF/...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
DID CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SE OK/SW AR OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PULLING UP
STATIONARY OVER N LA/E TX THURSDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE BNDRY MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD KEEP QPF AMOUNTS LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION INITIATION THURSDAY ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT. BUT ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SVR THREAT...THUS HAVE REMOVED SVR
MENTION FROM THE FORECAST THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SVR STORM WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

WILL BE WATCHING THE CLOSED SRN CA UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OPENS UP THURSDAY
NIGHT...ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE WILL SET UP A STRONG
SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING OVER
THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
SSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THUS LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS OK/AR FRIDAY
AND HENCE BROADING THE WARM SECTOR. THE W TX DRYLINE WILL MIX E
INTO ERN OK TO JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SCT TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION AREAWIDE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW
LEVEL WINDS DO VEER MORE ACROSS THE REGION WELL E OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY...WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW NOTED ABOVE 850MB. GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP LYR SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ADVECT
ENE AHEAD OF THE EJECTING TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THUS TAPERING
THE CONVECTION FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DRYLINE PULLING UP
STATIONARY JUST W OF THE REGION. THIS BNDRY SHOULD MIX E ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AS WRLY WINDS INCREASE BENEATH THE MIDWEST SFC
CYCLONE...RESULTING IN PERHAPS THE WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS
SRPING SEASON AS READING CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 80S AND POSSIBLY
90 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SVR THREAT FOR THE REGION BY THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH DISCREPENCIES IN TIMING AMONGST THE FASTER
GFS/SLOWER ECMWF PRECLUDES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ATTM. HOWEVER...THE
PROGS DO CONVERGE ON A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS SPILLING S ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  64  77  67 /  40  70  40  30
MLU  80  63  77  64 /  30  70  40  20
DEQ  76  58  67  58 /  50  70  40  40
TXK  77  60  71  62 /  40  70  40  30
ELD  78  60  71  60 /  30  70  40  30
TYR  79  65  81  69 /  40  60  30  40
GGG  80  65  80  69 /  40  60  30  40
LFK  84  68  85  71 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING...WITH AN EXTENSIVE
BAND OF 5-6KFT CIGS HAVING DEVELOPED/SPREAD ENE ALONG AND S OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA/E TX. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AHEAD OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE
OVER NW TX. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER
OF N TX ESE ACROSS NE TX AND TO NEAR THE AR/LA LINE BY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S TODAY BEFORE
TEMPORARILY BECOMING STATIONARY FROM SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR. THE
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW/ATTENDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES SW THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DRIVING AN INCREASE IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER WRN OK...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES ALONG A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN NM THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
ATOP THE FLAT SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN THOUGH
WHETHER THE CURRENT WRN OK CONVECTION MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION
EARLIER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE MAX DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...THUS TAPERING THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THE 00Z PROGS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT ALL IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION
PLACEMENT/TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE NEW 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NE TX DURING PEAK HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING
LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING E OF I-35
ACROSS ECNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TODAY THAN TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION INITIATION AND PLACEMENT.

DID MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH SVR WORDING THIS AFTERNOON NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR ALONG/JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT...TAPERING
CHANCE POPS DOWN A TAD FARTHER E WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS A
BIT WEAKER AND THIS REGION IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE TWO LOBES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR N AND W. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SHIFT ESE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT /PER THE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
ECMWF/...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
DID CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO
BACKDOOR SW INTO SE OK/SW AR OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PULLING UP
STATIONARY OVER N LA/E TX THURSDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE BNDRY MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD KEEP QPF AMOUNTS LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION INITIATION THURSDAY ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT. BUT ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SVR THREAT...THUS HAVE REMOVED SVR
MENTION FROM THE FORECAST THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SVR STORM WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

WILL BE WATCHING THE CLOSED SRN CA UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OPENS UP THURSDAY
NIGHT...ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE WILL SET UP A STRONG
SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A 70-80KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING OVER
THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
SSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THUS LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS OK/AR FRIDAY
AND HENCE BROADING THE WARM SECTOR. THE W TX DRYLINE WILL MIX E
INTO ERN OK TO JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SCT TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION AREAWIDE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW
LEVEL WINDS DO VEER MORE ACROSS THE REGION WELL E OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY...WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW NOTED ABOVE 850MB. GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP LYR SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ADVECT
ENE AHEAD OF THE EJECTING TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THUS TAPERING
THE CONVECTION FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DRYLINE PULLING UP
STATIONARY JUST W OF THE REGION. THIS BNDRY SHOULD MIX E ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AS WRLY WINDS INCREASE BENEATH THE MIDWEST SFC
CYCLONE...RESULTING IN PERHAPS THE WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS
SRPING SEASON AS READING CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 80S AND POSSIBLY
90 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SVR THREAT FOR THE REGION BY THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH DISCREPENCIES IN TIMING AMONGST THE FASTER
GFS/SLOWER ECMWF PRECLUDES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ATTM. HOWEVER...THE
PROGS DO CONVERGE ON A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS SPILLING S ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  64  77  67 /  40  70  40  30
MLU  80  63  77  64 /  30  70  40  20
DEQ  76  58  67  58 /  50  70  40  40
TXK  77  60  71  62 /  40  70  40  30
ELD  78  60  71  60 /  30  70  40  30
TYR  79  65  81  69 /  40  60  30  40
GGG  80  65  80  69 /  40  60  30  40
LFK  84  68  85  71 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




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