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000
FXUS64 KSHV 311210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
RAIN SETS IN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME SELY AT 6-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 311210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
RAIN SETS IN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME SELY AT 6-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310946
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310548
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/06Z TAFS...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
CIGS WILL LOWER AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME SELY
SATURDAY MORNING HELPING TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OK/TX BEFORE FINALLY
REACHING OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
KTYR/KLFK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT A FEW LEADING SHWRS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD ALSO AFFECT KGGG/KSHV/KTXK. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL CIGS/VSBYS DETERIORATE DUE TO THE
RAIN. /09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITION.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES, /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0  10  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /  10  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /  10  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /  10  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /  10  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310335
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITION.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES, /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/00Z TAFS...BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME SELY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS OK/TX FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0  10  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /  10  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /  10  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /  10  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /  10  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310335
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITION.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES, /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/00Z TAFS...BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME SELY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS OK/TX FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0  10  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /  10  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /  10  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /  10  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /  10  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 302343
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
543 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/00Z TAFS...BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME SELY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS OK/TX FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0  10  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /  10  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /  10  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /  10  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /  10  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 302158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH MAINLY DENSE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC WINDS FROM THE
E/NE DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN CREEPING EWRD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND CIGS
WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 10-15KFT. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF NOW OVER SRN CA
AND THE BAJA PENINSULA TRANSITIONS EAST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD ENDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE E/SE WITH TIME WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE
FROM 5-10 KTS...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND HIGHER ALOFT
BECOMING MORE S/SW ON SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0   5  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /   5  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /   5  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /   5  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /   5  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 302158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH MAINLY DENSE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC WINDS FROM THE
E/NE DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN CREEPING EWRD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND CIGS
WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 10-15KFT. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF NOW OVER SRN CA
AND THE BAJA PENINSULA TRANSITIONS EAST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD ENDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE E/SE WITH TIME WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE
FROM 5-10 KTS...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND HIGHER ALOFT
BECOMING MORE S/SW ON SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0   5  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /   5  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /   5  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /   5  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /   5  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1213 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH MAINLY DENSE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC WINDS FROM THE
E/NE DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN CREEPING EWRD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND CIGS
WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 10-15KFT. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF NOW OVER SRN CA
AND THE BAJA PENINSULA TRANSITIONS EAST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD ENDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE E/SE WITH TIME WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE
FROM 5-10 KTS...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND HIGHER ALOFT
BECOMING MORE S/SW ON SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS
SHIELD OVERHEAD...ORIGINATING FROM THE RICH PACIFIC ELEVATED
MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPED SRN CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW.
VISIBLE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OFFICE PARKING LOT CONFIRM THAT THE
CIRRUS IS THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF THE SUNSHINE...BUT
ENOUGH TO COVER/OBSCURE MUCH OF THE SKY...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. EVEN
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD IN PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
STILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE...WHICH IS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON /BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS/. ENE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND SWD FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  36  55  48  58 /   0   0  20  70  80
MLU  55  33  58  48  58 /   0   0  10  50  80
DEQ  54  32  50  39  51 /   0  10  30  80  70
TXK  52  33  52  44  54 /   0  10  20  80  80
ELD  54  31  54  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  80
TYR  57  38  54  49  56 /   0  10  40  80  70
GGG  56  37  54  49  56 /   0  10  30  80  80
LFK  59  41  60  52  63 /   0  10  20  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1213 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH MAINLY DENSE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC WINDS FROM THE
E/NE DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN CREEPING EWRD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND CIGS
WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 10-15KFT. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF NOW OVER SRN CA
AND THE BAJA PENINSULA TRANSITIONS EAST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD ENDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE E/SE WITH TIME WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE
FROM 5-10 KTS...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND HIGHER ALOFT
BECOMING MORE S/SW ON SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS
SHIELD OVERHEAD...ORIGINATING FROM THE RICH PACIFIC ELEVATED
MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPED SRN CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW.
VISIBLE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OFFICE PARKING LOT CONFIRM THAT THE
CIRRUS IS THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF THE SUNSHINE...BUT
ENOUGH TO COVER/OBSCURE MUCH OF THE SKY...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. EVEN
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD IN PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
STILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE...WHICH IS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON /BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS/. ENE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND SWD FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  36  55  48  58 /   0   0  20  70  80
MLU  55  33  58  48  58 /   0   0  10  50  80
DEQ  54  32  50  39  51 /   0  10  30  80  70
TXK  52  33  52  44  54 /   0  10  20  80  80
ELD  54  31  54  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  80
TYR  57  38  54  49  56 /   0  10  40  80  70
GGG  56  37  54  49  56 /   0  10  30  80  80
LFK  59  41  60  52  63 /   0  10  20  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301701
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1101 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS
SHIELD OVERHEAD...ORIGINATING FROM THE RICH PACIFIC ELEVATED
MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPED SRN CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW.
VISIBLE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OFFICE PARKING LOT CONFIRM THAT THE
CIRRUS IS THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF THE SUNSHINE...BUT
ENOUGH TO COVER/OBSCURE MUCH OF THE SKY...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. EVEN
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD IN PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
STILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE...WHICH IS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON /BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS/. ENE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND SWD FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  36  55  48  58 /   0   0  20  70  80
MLU  55  33  58  48  58 /   0   0  10  50  80
DEQ  54  32  50  39  51 /   0  10  30  80  70
TXK  52  33  52  44  54 /   0  10  20  80  80
ELD  54  31  54  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  80
TYR  57  38  54  49  56 /   0  10  40  80  70
GGG  56  37  54  49  56 /   0  10  30  80  80
LFK  59  41  60  52  63 /   0  10  20  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301701
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1101 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS
SHIELD OVERHEAD...ORIGINATING FROM THE RICH PACIFIC ELEVATED
MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPED SRN CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW.
VISIBLE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OFFICE PARKING LOT CONFIRM THAT THE
CIRRUS IS THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF THE SUNSHINE...BUT
ENOUGH TO COVER/OBSCURE MUCH OF THE SKY...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. EVEN
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD IN PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD
STILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE...WHICH IS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON /BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS/. ENE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND SWD FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  36  55  48  58 /   0   0  20  70  80
MLU  55  33  58  48  58 /   0   0  10  50  80
DEQ  54  32  50  39  51 /   0  10  30  80  70
TXK  52  33  52  44  54 /   0  10  20  80  80
ELD  54  31  54  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  80
TYR  57  38  54  49  56 /   0  10  40  80  70
GGG  56  37  54  49  56 /   0  10  30  80  80
LFK  59  41  60  52  63 /   0  10  20  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PD ONCE AGAIN...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS
OUT OF THE NE TO E GENERALLY AT 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.
AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SPREADING
EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHEN A PIECE OF THE
SYSTEM BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ENDING THE
RAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS INDICATE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH
NORTHERN AREAS RECEIVING UP TO ONE INCH. THE BREAK IN RAIN WILL
LAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN THE CUTOFF CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REACHES
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD END BY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONT...
WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  36  55  48  58 /   0   0  20  70  80
MLU  56  33  58  48  58 /   0   0  10  50  80
DEQ  55  32  50  39  51 /   0  10  30  80  70
TXK  51  33  52  44  54 /   0  10  20  80  80
ELD  53  31  54  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  80
TYR  58  38  54  49  56 /   0  10  40  80  70
GGG  56  37  54  49  56 /   0  10  30  80  80
LFK  59  41  60  52  63 /   0  10  20  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PD ONCE AGAIN...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS
OUT OF THE NE TO E GENERALLY AT 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.
AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SPREADING
EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHEN A PIECE OF THE
SYSTEM BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ENDING THE
RAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS INDICATE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH
NORTHERN AREAS RECEIVING UP TO ONE INCH. THE BREAK IN RAIN WILL
LAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN THE CUTOFF CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REACHES
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD END BY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONT...
WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  36  55  48  58 /   0   0  20  70  80
MLU  56  33  58  48  58 /   0   0  10  50  80
DEQ  55  32  50  39  51 /   0  10  30  80  70
TXK  51  33  52  44  54 /   0  10  20  80  80
ELD  53  31  54  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  80
TYR  58  38  54  49  56 /   0  10  40  80  70
GGG  56  37  54  49  56 /   0  10  30  80  80
LFK  59  41  60  52  63 /   0  10  20  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300953
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.
AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SPREADING
EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHEN A PIECE OF THE
SYSTEM BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ENDING THE
RAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS INDICATE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH
NORTHERN AREAS RECEIVING UP TO ONE INCH. THE BREAK IN RAIN WILL
LAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN THE CUTOFF CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REACHES
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD END BY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONT...
WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  36  55  48  58 /   0   0  20  70  80
MLU  56  33  58  48  58 /   0   0  10  50  80
DEQ  55  32  50  39  51 /   0  10  30  80  70
TXK  51  33  52  44  54 /   0  10  20  80  80
ELD  53  31  54  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  80
TYR  58  38  54  49  56 /   0  10  40  80  70
GGG  56  37  54  49  56 /   0  10  30  80  80
LFK  59  41  60  52  63 /   0  10  20  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300953
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.
AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SPREADING
EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHEN A PIECE OF THE
SYSTEM BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ENDING THE
RAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS INDICATE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH
NORTHERN AREAS RECEIVING UP TO ONE INCH. THE BREAK IN RAIN WILL
LAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN THE CUTOFF CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REACHES
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD END BY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONT...
WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  36  55  48  58 /   0   0  20  70  80
MLU  56  33  58  48  58 /   0   0  10  50  80
DEQ  55  32  50  39  51 /   0  10  30  80  70
TXK  51  33  52  44  54 /   0  10  20  80  80
ELD  53  31  54  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  80
TYR  58  38  54  49  56 /   0  10  40  80  70
GGG  56  37  54  49  56 /   0  10  30  80  80
LFK  59  41  60  52  63 /   0  10  20  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300544
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S CNTRL
AR/N CNTRL LA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN BY 31/00Z. COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE GULF COAST
AND NLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED RATHER GUSTY THIS EVENING. OBS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ELY THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WITH MINOR CHANGES MAINLY
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH DEW POINTS AND WINDS. GRADIENT KEEPING
WINDS UP THIS EVENING BUT WILL RELAX LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH
THE CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT ADJUST. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 300544
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S CNTRL
AR/N CNTRL LA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN BY 31/00Z. COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED THE GULF COAST
AND NLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED RATHER GUSTY THIS EVENING. OBS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ELY THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WITH MINOR CHANGES MAINLY
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH DEW POINTS AND WINDS. GRADIENT KEEPING
WINDS UP THIS EVENING BUT WILL RELAX LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH
THE CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT ADJUST. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WITH MINOR CHANGES MAINLY
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH DEW POINTS AND WINDS. GRADIENT KEEPING
WINDS UP THIS EVENING BUT WILL RELAX LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH
THE CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT ADJUST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE CIRRUS MOVING SE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NW OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE
GUSTING FROM THE NW OVER 15 KTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR SITES...BUT
SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KTS. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WITH MINOR CHANGES MAINLY
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH DEW POINTS AND WINDS. GRADIENT KEEPING
WINDS UP THIS EVENING BUT WILL RELAX LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH
THE CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT ADJUST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE CIRRUS MOVING SE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NW OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE
GUSTING FROM THE NW OVER 15 KTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR SITES...BUT
SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KTS. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE CIRRUS MOVING SE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NW OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE
GUSTING FROM THE NW OVER 15 KTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR SITES...BUT
SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KTS. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 292159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 292159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 291818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 291733
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291733
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 291126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PD. SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS/BR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF DEEP E TX AND ADJACENT NW LA...AND IS MOVING NWD INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...AMPLE MIXING WILL SCATTER ANY
REMAINING STRATUS BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING NLY WINDS 10-12 KTS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONGER
WINDS...AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
OF RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  72  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  66  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  68  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  68  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  70  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  73  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PD. SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS/BR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF DEEP E TX AND ADJACENT NW LA...AND IS MOVING NWD INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...AMPLE MIXING WILL SCATTER ANY
REMAINING STRATUS BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING NLY WINDS 10-12 KTS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONGER
WINDS...AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
OF RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  72  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  66  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  68  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  68  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  70  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  73  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290842
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONGER
WINDS...AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
OF RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  72  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  66  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  68  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  68  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  70  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  73  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 290842
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONGER
WINDS...AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
OF RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  72  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  66  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  68  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  68  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  70  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  73  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015


.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHERN OK...WILL REACH CWA BY MID MORNING
THU...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BTWN 29/21-24Z. SCT MID DECKS UNDERNEATH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS...TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SKIES TO REMAIN
VFR AREAWIDE THRU 30/06Z FCST CYCLE./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 290446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015


.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHERN OK...WILL REACH CWA BY MID MORNING
THU...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BTWN 29/21-24Z. SCT MID DECKS UNDERNEATH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS...TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SKIES TO REMAIN
VFR AREAWIDE THRU 30/06Z FCST CYCLE./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 290340
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290340
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06








000
FXUS64 KSHV 282337
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 282337
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 282147
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 282147
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281752
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
APPROACHING CIRRUS ATTM WILL INCREASE AND S/SW 10-20KTS WINDS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS. LIGHTER WINDS AT KLFK
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VLIFR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX. W/NW 10-15KTS WILL ENSUE W TO E AFTER
DAYBREAK. ALOFT...S/SW FLOW WILL BE INCREASING INTO LLJ OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR TO 25-35KT FM 1-3KFT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO
W AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN SLACK AND VEER TO NW END OF THIS CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING DECKS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COLD RA BY 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. I STILL MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ENOUGH AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS ABOVE 80
DEGREES F.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  71  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  72  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  77  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  78  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281752
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
APPROACHING CIRRUS ATTM WILL INCREASE AND S/SW 10-20KTS WINDS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS. LIGHTER WINDS AT KLFK
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VLIFR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX. W/NW 10-15KTS WILL ENSUE W TO E AFTER
DAYBREAK. ALOFT...S/SW FLOW WILL BE INCREASING INTO LLJ OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR TO 25-35KT FM 1-3KFT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO
W AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN SLACK AND VEER TO NW END OF THIS CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING DECKS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COLD RA BY 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. I STILL MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ENOUGH AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS ABOVE 80
DEGREES F.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  71  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  72  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  77  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  78  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/05






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