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000
FXUS64 KSHV 220758
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LVL DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED POSITION OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL...WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
LOWER A FEW DEGREES ACROSS AT LEAST SW AR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...MID LVL MOISTURE THICKENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVG TOWARDS RED RIVER VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS
MAINLY IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED...WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
ONLY PLAYING LIMITED ROLE MAINLY WEST IN REGARDS TO DAYTIME HIGHS.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH A SHARPER TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH PERHAPS LESS MID
LVL CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY MORNING ONLY AS THIS TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE OF
THE AREA. BIG 592 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID/UPPER 80S AREAWIDE FOR SAT
AND SUN...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY. NEXT SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY NON SFC BASED AND SLOWER WITH GFS THAN
THE FASTER ECMWF. THINKING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
WILL KEEP POPS ISOLD NOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS ALSO SHOWING
TROPICAL LOW MOVG NWD ACROSS EASTERN GULF...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BEYOND END OF EXTENDED...BUT PRECIP
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  51  75  51  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  79  47  74  47  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  76  49  73  47  81 /   0  10  20  10   0
TXK  77  48  74  50  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  76  46  72  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  79  53  75  53  84 /   0   0  10  10   0
GGG  78  51  75  50  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
LFK  80  52  78  52  83 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 220415
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1115 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AS EXPECTED...STARTING TO SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON IR IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS HEIGHTS ARE AROUND
4-5KFT AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT. WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME VSBY ISSUES HOWEVER AT ELD AND MLU WITH 2-5 MILES
BEING OBSERVED ATTM. THE LEADING EDGE OF A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISS ATTM. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGD TO MOVE INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND BACKDOOR ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOPEFULLY THIS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE OR WE COULD SEE VSBYS CONTINUE TO
CRATER. FOR THIS REASON...PREVAILED MVFR VSBYS AT ELD AND MLU WITH
A MUCH LOWER TEMPO GROUP OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH NE WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS ON
WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY OVER THE OK/AR AND TX/LA BORDERS. WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT STILL REMAINS NE OF THE AREA. LATEST WV LOOPS
INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NE AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS S TX. SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. THIS COULD
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AND DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE INCREASED
CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MIN TEMP FCST INTACT FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 220253 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY OVER THE OK/AR AND TX/LA BORDERS. WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT STILL REMAINS NE OF THE AREA. LATEST WV LOOPS
INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NE AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS S TX. SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. THIS COULD
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AND DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE INCREASED
CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MIN TEMP FCST INTACT FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THIS
AREAS WEATHER ATTM. THETAE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE OK ITO CENTRAL AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CU FIELD IN THE 4-5KFT LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TXK/SHV/TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CEILINGS
AT THESE HEIGHTS WED MORNING BUT FOR NOW...LEFT CEILINGS OUT OF
THE TERMINALS. WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS AT THE
MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BUT DRIER AIR MAY NOT ALLOW THIS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NE WINDS
PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS BEYOND 14Z WED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220253 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY OVER THE OK/AR AND TX/LA BORDERS. WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT STILL REMAINS NE OF THE AREA. LATEST WV LOOPS
INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NE AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS S TX. SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. THIS COULD
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AND DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE INCREASED
CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MIN TEMP FCST INTACT FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THIS
AREAS WEATHER ATTM. THETAE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE OK ITO CENTRAL AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CU FIELD IN THE 4-5KFT LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TXK/SHV/TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CEILINGS
AT THESE HEIGHTS WED MORNING BUT FOR NOW...LEFT CEILINGS OUT OF
THE TERMINALS. WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS AT THE
MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BUT DRIER AIR MAY NOT ALLOW THIS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NE WINDS
PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS BEYOND 14Z WED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 212342
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THIS
AREAS WEATHER ATTM. THETAE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE OK ITO CENTRAL AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CU FIELD IN THE 4-5KFT LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TXK/SHV/TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CEILINGS
AT THESE HEIGHTS WED MORNING BUT FOR NOW...LEFT CEILINGS OUT OF
THE TERMINALS. WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS AT THE
MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BUT DRIER AIR MAY NOT ALLOW THIS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NE WINDS
PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS BEYOND 14Z WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 212058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 211715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014


.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU BETWEEN
22/08Z-22/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 KNOTS TODAY TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  80  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  78  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 211623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK SHIFTING SWRD THIS MORNING FROM S AR/SE OK HAS
GRADUALLY BEGUN TO ERODE AND SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/N LA. THE CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED TEMPERATURE
RISE OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA.
/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  80  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  78  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 210457
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS DID EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
AFTER 21/14Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 22/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210457
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS DID EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
AFTER 21/14Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 22/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210457
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS DID EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
AFTER 21/14Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 22/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210233 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210233 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 202101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19








000
FXUS64 KSHV 202101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201723
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU FROM 21/10Z-21/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  82  54  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  82  50  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  79  51  76  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  80  52  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  80  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  81  59  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  52  82  55  79  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  83  57  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201723
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU FROM 21/10Z-21/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  82  54  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  82  50  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  79  51  76  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  80  52  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  80  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  81  59  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  52  82  55  79  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  83  57  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201613
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SWRD IN ERN OK/NRN AR
WITH A FEW ISOLD SHWRS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE SHWRS MAY AFFECT
OUR FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SW AR. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...TWEAKED
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201613
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SWRD IN ERN OK/NRN AR
WITH A FEW ISOLD SHWRS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE SHWRS MAY AFFECT
OUR FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SW AR. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...TWEAKED
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12








000
FXUS64 KSHV 201132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200847
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200847
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY
TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY MAINLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR KTXK AND
KELD...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25 KFT. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY
TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY MAINLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR KTXK AND
KELD...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25 KFT. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200234 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
21/00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25
KFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200234 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
21/00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25
KFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
21/00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25
KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
21/00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25
KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 191925
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 191925
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 191731 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 19/18Z TAF
PERIOD...AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SKC WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN THIN CIRRUS EXPECTED FROM THE WNW LATE. THE CU FIELD
OVER NCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN BACK ESE
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG AND SW AR TERMINALS
NEAR/JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. E WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH TO 4KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY PROVIDING ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COOL E/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLOWLY THIS MORNING...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS DO
LOOK ACHIEVABLE SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  51  79  55  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  46  79  52  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  73  48  75  54  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
TXK  74  49  78  54  80 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  45  77  53  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  54  80  56  81 /   0  10   0  10   0
GGG  76  51  79  51  81 /   0  10  10  10   0
LFK  80  55  81  55  83 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 191545
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY PROVIDING ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COOL E/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLOWLY THIS MORNING...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS DO
LOOK ACHIEVABLE SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND NELY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PD...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE ARKLATEX DURING SATURDAY. FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KLFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PD...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AREAS BY MONDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSTM. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AS IT DROPS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE
RETURN WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
SOME RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WAITING TO
SEE HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE GFS TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA BY SATURDAY WHILE THE EURO BRINGS IT SOUTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. IF THE EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN MORE
RAIN CAN BE ADDED INTO FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  51  79  55  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  46  79  52  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  73  48  75  54  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
TXK  74  49  78  54  80 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  45  77  53  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  54  80  56  81 /   0  10   0  10   0
GGG  76  51  79  51  81 /   0  10  10  10   0
LFK  80  55  81  55  83 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 191545
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY PROVIDING ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COOL E/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLOWLY THIS MORNING...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS DO
LOOK ACHIEVABLE SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND NELY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PD...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE ARKLATEX DURING SATURDAY. FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KLFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PD...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AREAS BY MONDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSTM. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AS IT DROPS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE
RETURN WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
SOME RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WAITING TO
SEE HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE GFS TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA BY SATURDAY WHILE THE EURO BRINGS IT SOUTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. IF THE EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN MORE
RAIN CAN BE ADDED INTO FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  51  79  55  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  46  79  52  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  73  48  75  54  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
TXK  74  49  78  54  80 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  45  77  53  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  54  80  56  81 /   0  10   0  10   0
GGG  76  51  79  51  81 /   0  10  10  10   0
LFK  80  55  81  55  83 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 191054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
554 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND NELY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PD...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE ARKLATEX DURING SATURDAY. FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KLFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PD...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AREAS BY MONDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSTM. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AS IT DROPS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE
RETURN WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
SOME RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WAITING TO
SEE HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE GFS TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA BY SATURDAY WHILE THE EURO BRINGS IT SOUTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. IF THE EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN MORE
RAIN CAN BE ADDED INTO FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  51  79  55  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  46  79  52  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  73  48  75  54  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
TXK  74  49  78  54  80 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  45  77  53  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  54  80  56  81 /   0  10   0  10   0
GGG  76  51  79  51  81 /   0  10  10  10   0
LFK  80  55  81  55  83 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 191054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
554 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND NELY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PD...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE ARKLATEX DURING SATURDAY. FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KLFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PD...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AREAS BY MONDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSTM. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AS IT DROPS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE
RETURN WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
SOME RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WAITING TO
SEE HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE GFS TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA BY SATURDAY WHILE THE EURO BRINGS IT SOUTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. IF THE EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN MORE
RAIN CAN BE ADDED INTO FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  51  79  55  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  46  79  52  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  73  48  75  54  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
TXK  74  49  78  54  80 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  45  77  53  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  54  80  56  81 /   0  10   0  10   0
GGG  76  51  79  51  81 /   0  10  10  10   0
LFK  80  55  81  55  83 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 190947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
447 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AREAS BY MONDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSTM. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AS IT DROPS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE
RETURN WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
SOME RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WAITING TO
SEE HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE GFS TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA BY SATURDAY WHILE THE EURO BRINGS IT SOUTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. IF THE EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN MORE
RAIN CAN BE ADDED INTO FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  51  79  55  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  46  79  52  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  73  48  75  54  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
TXK  74  49  78  54  80 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  45  77  53  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  54  80  56  81 /   0  10   0  10   0
GGG  76  51  79  51  81 /   0  10  10  10   0
LFK  80  55  81  55  83 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 190947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
447 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AREAS BY MONDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSTM. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AS IT DROPS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE
RETURN WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
SOME RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WAITING TO
SEE HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE GFS TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA BY SATURDAY WHILE THE EURO BRINGS IT SOUTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. IF THE EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN MORE
RAIN CAN BE ADDED INTO FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  51  79  55  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  46  79  52  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  73  48  75  54  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
TXK  74  49  78  54  80 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  45  77  53  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  54  80  56  81 /   0  10   0  10   0
GGG  76  51  79  51  81 /   0  10  10  10   0
LFK  80  55  81  55  83 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14






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