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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
213 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE STRONG STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...NO DOUBT THAT THE DRIER AIR HAS FUNNELED INTO THE REGION
WITH OUR PWAT THIS MORNING DOWN TO 1.23 INCHES VS 1.81 INCHES
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DUE IN PART TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WHICH HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION...OR EVEN ANY CLOUD COVER FOR THAT MATTER. EXPECTING
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS. BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISS/TENN AND OHIO VALLEY. OUR REGION WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL SET UP A RATHER
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING ON A TUTT LOW HUGGING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
LATE MONDAY AND INFLUENCING MORE OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST HALF.

MEANWHILE...BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE APPEARS TO GET SHUNTED INTO
THE TENN VALLEY DUE TO STRONG TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
ENTERING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWED THE GFS
CLOSELY WITH THIS PATTERN...AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL BETWEEEN IT AND THE ECMWF WITH FRONTAL TIMING. DID NOT BUY
INTO THE BIG COOL DOWN THE GFS IS HINTING AT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND: THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE
DRIER DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC DURING PEAK HEATING. DEWPOINTS
ARE DOWN SOME 1-3 DEGREES ACROSS MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. SHOULD SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE
FOR SATURDAY AND HOPEFULLY SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF OUR
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER SEASON THIS WEEKEND. HAVING
SAID THAT... STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES THE GFS MOS OUTPUT IS SPITTING OUT. SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSELY MIMIC THE NAM MOS OUTPUT WITH MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS STATED
ABOVE...IF WE CAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
MIXING DOWN INTO THE 60S DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. STILL EXPECTING HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100-105 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY...JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 23/18Z. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS LFK/MLU
TERMINAL SITES AROUND 23/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  72  96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  95  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  75  98  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  74  97  74  98  75 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
213 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE STRONG STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...NO DOUBT THAT THE DRIER AIR HAS FUNNELED INTO THE REGION
WITH OUR PWAT THIS MORNING DOWN TO 1.23 INCHES VS 1.81 INCHES
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DUE IN PART TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WHICH HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION...OR EVEN ANY CLOUD COVER FOR THAT MATTER. EXPECTING
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS. BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISS/TENN AND OHIO VALLEY. OUR REGION WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL SET UP A RATHER
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING ON A TUTT LOW HUGGING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
LATE MONDAY AND INFLUENCING MORE OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST HALF.

MEANWHILE...BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE APPEARS TO GET SHUNTED INTO
THE TENN VALLEY DUE TO STRONG TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
ENTERING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWED THE GFS
CLOSELY WITH THIS PATTERN...AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL BETWEEEN IT AND THE ECMWF WITH FRONTAL TIMING. DID NOT BUY
INTO THE BIG COOL DOWN THE GFS IS HINTING AT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND: THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE
DRIER DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC DURING PEAK HEATING. DEWPOINTS
ARE DOWN SOME 1-3 DEGREES ACROSS MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. SHOULD SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE
FOR SATURDAY AND HOPEFULLY SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF OUR
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER SEASON THIS WEEKEND. HAVING
SAID THAT... STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES THE GFS MOS OUTPUT IS SPITTING OUT. SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSELY MIMIC THE NAM MOS OUTPUT WITH MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS STATED
ABOVE...IF WE CAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
MIXING DOWN INTO THE 60S DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. STILL EXPECTING HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100-105 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY...JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 23/18Z. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS LFK/MLU
TERMINAL SITES AROUND 23/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  72  96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  95  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  75  98  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  74  97  74  98  75 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 221715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 23/18Z. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS LFK/MLU
TERMINAL SITES AROUND 23/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AGAIN ON SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 23/18Z. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS LFK/MLU
TERMINAL SITES AROUND 23/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AGAIN ON SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221518
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1018 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO A DESCENT CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
LOOKING AT TWO AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A
700MB THETAE RIDGE DEPICTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HRRR
PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE AND EVEN DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION
NEAR THE OUACHITAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN APPEARS TO BE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT CAN BE SEEN
SPINNING ON VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL LA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THINKING IS THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR REGION.

A QUICK CHECK OF 15Z TEMPS SHOWING THAT VALUES ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER HOWEVER. OVERALL...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE...THUS NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PATCHY IFR/MVFR FROM KLFK...TO KTYR...TO KSHV WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING. S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WITH FEW GUSTS WEST.
ALOFT...SW FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE MID LEVELS LESS THAN 20KTS AND ABV
FL25O...WINDS ARE E. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION TODAY UNDER A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SOUTH AND MORE OF THIS TO COME FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH A QUITE SIMILAR LATE SUMMER PATTERN TO PERSIST.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221518
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1018 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO A DESCENT CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
LOOKING AT TWO AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A
700MB THETAE RIDGE DEPICTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HRRR
PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE AND EVEN DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION
NEAR THE OUACHITAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN APPEARS TO BE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT CAN BE SEEN
SPINNING ON VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL LA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THINKING IS THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR REGION.

A QUICK CHECK OF 15Z TEMPS SHOWING THAT VALUES ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER HOWEVER. OVERALL...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE...THUS NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PATCHY IFR/MVFR FROM KLFK...TO KTYR...TO KSHV WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING. S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WITH FEW GUSTS WEST.
ALOFT...SW FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE MID LEVELS LESS THAN 20KTS AND ABV
FL25O...WINDS ARE E. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION TODAY UNDER A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SOUTH AND MORE OF THIS TO COME FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH A QUITE SIMILAR LATE SUMMER PATTERN TO PERSIST.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 221154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY IFR/MVFR FROM KLFK...TO KTYR...TO KSHV WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING. S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WITH FEW GUSTS WEST.
ALOFT...SW FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE MID LEVELS LESS THAN 20KTS AND ABV
FL25O...WINDS ARE E. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION TODAY UNDER A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SOUTH AND MORE OF THIS TO COME FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH A QUITE SIMILAR LATE SUMMER PATTERN TO PERSIST. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING
TO OCCUR WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAS NOT OCCURRED. EARLY TO MID MORNING DEW POINTS WILL
BE IN THE 60/S AND 70/S BUT BY AFTERNOON WILL MIX DOWN AND DRY
KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND RANGING FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MIX OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MORE STATIONS IN THE 102 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE. BY SUNDAY THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
100 DEGREES AND MAY PUSH THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ABOVE 105 DEGREES
REQUIRING A HEAT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
MISS OUT ON AFTERNOON RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
CONTRIBUTES TO THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE REST OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK. MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
PROVIDE A GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY IFR/MVFR FROM KLFK...TO KTYR...TO KSHV WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING. S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WITH FEW GUSTS WEST.
ALOFT...SW FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE MID LEVELS LESS THAN 20KTS AND ABV
FL25O...WINDS ARE E. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION TODAY UNDER A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SOUTH AND MORE OF THIS TO COME FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH A QUITE SIMILAR LATE SUMMER PATTERN TO PERSIST. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING
TO OCCUR WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAS NOT OCCURRED. EARLY TO MID MORNING DEW POINTS WILL
BE IN THE 60/S AND 70/S BUT BY AFTERNOON WILL MIX DOWN AND DRY
KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND RANGING FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MIX OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MORE STATIONS IN THE 102 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE. BY SUNDAY THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
100 DEGREES AND MAY PUSH THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ABOVE 105 DEGREES
REQUIRING A HEAT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
MISS OUT ON AFTERNOON RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
CONTRIBUTES TO THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE REST OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK. MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
PROVIDE A GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221114
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
614 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING
TO OCCUR WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAS NOT OCCURRED. EARLY TO MID MORNING DEW POINTS WILL
BE IN THE 60/S AND 70/S BUT BY AFTERNOON WILL MIX DOWN AND DRY
KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND RANGING FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MIX OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MORE STATIONS IN THE 102 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE. BY SUNDAY THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
100 DEGREES AND MAY PUSH THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ABOVE 105 DEGREES
REQUIRING A HEAT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
MISS OUT ON AFTERNOON RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
CONTRIBUTES TO THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE REST OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK. MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
PROVIDE A GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221114
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
614 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING
TO OCCUR WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAS NOT OCCURRED. EARLY TO MID MORNING DEW POINTS WILL
BE IN THE 60/S AND 70/S BUT BY AFTERNOON WILL MIX DOWN AND DRY
KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND RANGING FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MIX OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MORE STATIONS IN THE 102 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE. BY SUNDAY THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
100 DEGREES AND MAY PUSH THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ABOVE 105 DEGREES
REQUIRING A HEAT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
MISS OUT ON AFTERNOON RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
CONTRIBUTES TO THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE REST OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK. MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
PROVIDE A GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220652 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
152 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES...ZONES RESENT TO UPDATE NOAA WEATHER RADIO. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRO THE MOST PART THRU FCST
PERIOD. LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN LA THIS AFTN...WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. ANY
PATCHY FOG OVER KELD AND KMLU WILL BE BRIEF...WITH DEWPOINT
SPREADS STILL OF 4 TO 5 DEGREES. MVFR CIGS MAY SKIRT TERMINAL
SITES IN NE TX AFTER 22/10Z. SOUTH WINDS THRU PERIOD OF 5 TO 10
KTS MAY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...AND RETURN DURG THE DAYTIME FRIDAY./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
HAS ENDED BUT THE RAIN DID LOWER TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS BUT TONIGHT`S
FORECAST MINS LOOK OK. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  72  96  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  73  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  75  97  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220652 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
152 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES...ZONES RESENT TO UPDATE NOAA WEATHER RADIO. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRO THE MOST PART THRU FCST
PERIOD. LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN LA THIS AFTN...WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. ANY
PATCHY FOG OVER KELD AND KMLU WILL BE BRIEF...WITH DEWPOINT
SPREADS STILL OF 4 TO 5 DEGREES. MVFR CIGS MAY SKIRT TERMINAL
SITES IN NE TX AFTER 22/10Z. SOUTH WINDS THRU PERIOD OF 5 TO 10
KTS MAY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...AND RETURN DURG THE DAYTIME FRIDAY./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
HAS ENDED BUT THE RAIN DID LOWER TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS BUT TONIGHT`S
FORECAST MINS LOOK OK. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  72  96  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  73  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  75  97  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 220448
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRO THE MOST PART THRU FCST
PERIOD. LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN LA THIS AFTN...WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. ANY
PATCHY FOG OVER KELD AND KMLU WILL BE BRIEF...WITH DEWPOINT
SPREADS STILL OF 4 TO 5 DEGREES. MVFR CIGS MAY SKIRT TERMINAL
SITES IN NE TX AFTER 22/10Z. SOUTH WINDS THRU PERIOD OF 5 TO 10
KTS MAY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...AND RETURN DURG THE DAYTIME FRIDAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
HAS ENDED BUT THE RAIN DID LOWER TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS BUT TONIGHT`S
FORECAST MINS LOOK OK. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 220448
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRO THE MOST PART THRU FCST
PERIOD. LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN LA THIS AFTN...WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. ANY
PATCHY FOG OVER KELD AND KMLU WILL BE BRIEF...WITH DEWPOINT
SPREADS STILL OF 4 TO 5 DEGREES. MVFR CIGS MAY SKIRT TERMINAL
SITES IN NE TX AFTER 22/10Z. SOUTH WINDS THRU PERIOD OF 5 TO 10
KTS MAY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...AND RETURN DURG THE DAYTIME FRIDAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
HAS ENDED BUT THE RAIN DID LOWER TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS BUT TONIGHT`S
FORECAST MINS LOOK OK. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 220259
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
HAS ENDED BUT THE RAIN DID LOWER TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS BUT TONIGHT`S
FORECAST MINS LOOK OK. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE TSTMS..MOVG N-NE ACROSS NORTH LA TOWARDS I-20
CORRIDOR. KMLU TERMINAL WILL SEE VCNTY TSTMS BY AROUND
22/00Z...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET. MVFR CIGS MAY
CLIP KTYR AND KGGG TERMINALS BY AROUND 22/11Z...AND THESE CIGS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY FOG AT KLFK. PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT
KMLU...DUE TO WET GROUND FROM APPROACHING CONVECTION. S-SW WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 22/15Z ACROSS AREA. ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTN...LIKELY LIMITED TO THE KMLU TERMINAL./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 220259
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
HAS ENDED BUT THE RAIN DID LOWER TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS BUT TONIGHT`S
FORECAST MINS LOOK OK. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE TSTMS..MOVG N-NE ACROSS NORTH LA TOWARDS I-20
CORRIDOR. KMLU TERMINAL WILL SEE VCNTY TSTMS BY AROUND
22/00Z...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET. MVFR CIGS MAY
CLIP KTYR AND KGGG TERMINALS BY AROUND 22/11Z...AND THESE CIGS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY FOG AT KLFK. PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT
KMLU...DUE TO WET GROUND FROM APPROACHING CONVECTION. S-SW WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 22/15Z ACROSS AREA. ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTN...LIKELY LIMITED TO THE KMLU TERMINAL./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 212301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
601 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE TSTMS..MOVG N-NE ACROSS NORTH LA TOWARDS I-20
CORRIDOR. KMLU TERMINAL WILL SEE VCNTY TSTMS BY AROUND
22/00Z...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET. MVFR CIGS MAY
CLIP KTYR AND KGGG TERMINALS BY AROUND 22/11Z...AND THESE CIGS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY FOG AT KLFK. PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT
KMLU...DUE TO WET GROUND FROM APPROACHING CONVECTION. S-SW WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 22/15Z ACROSS AREA. ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTN...LIKELY LIMITED TO THE KMLU TERMINAL./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 212301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
601 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE TSTMS..MOVG N-NE ACROSS NORTH LA TOWARDS I-20
CORRIDOR. KMLU TERMINAL WILL SEE VCNTY TSTMS BY AROUND
22/00Z...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET. MVFR CIGS MAY
CLIP KTYR AND KGGG TERMINALS BY AROUND 22/11Z...AND THESE CIGS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY FOG AT KLFK. PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT
KMLU...DUE TO WET GROUND FROM APPROACHING CONVECTION. S-SW WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 22/15Z ACROSS AREA. ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTN...LIKELY LIMITED TO THE KMLU TERMINAL./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 211934
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/18Z TAFS...DENSE CU FIELD WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2500 AND 3000 FEET PERSISTS RESULTING IN A MIX OF MVFR/LOW-END VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT WHILE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY THINS. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU. SHWRS/TSTMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS
FRIDAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211934
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/18Z TAFS...DENSE CU FIELD WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2500 AND 3000 FEET PERSISTS RESULTING IN A MIX OF MVFR/LOW-END VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT WHILE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY THINS. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU. SHWRS/TSTMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS
FRIDAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 211757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/18Z TAFS...DENSE CU FIELD WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2500 AND 3000 FEET PERSISTS RESULTING IN A MIX OF MVFR/LOW-END VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT WHILE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY THINS. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU. SHWRS/TSTMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS
FRIDAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING. CUMULUS
IS TAKING ON MORE OF A HORIZONTAL ROW APPEARANCE WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME MIXING BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME PEEKS
OF SUN TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH EVENTUALLY SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5KFT ALLOWED THE STRATUS TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND CONDENSE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THIS MIX DOWN ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING
WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS NOTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
ACROSS TX.

LOOKING AT NEW RAW 12Z NAM OUTPUT...THERE REMAINS A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK BUT
OBVIOUS 850-700MB THETAE AXIS ALSO RESIDES ACROSS THIS GENERAL
AREA AND AS A RESULT...THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE FAVORABLE
REGION TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE CLOUDS THIN...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEMS GETTING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH FCST MAX TEMPS WITH 15Z OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
RUNNING SOME 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY
ATTM.

NO UPDATE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER NCNTRL LA...WHICH IS ALONG A ELEVATED WEAK SHEAR AXIS NOTED ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP EXTENDING FROM SE TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA INTO CNTRL
MS/NRN AL. THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY THIS
MORNING OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...WHICH ARE THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF
THE ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
NOW AFFECTING THE ERN MX COAST S OF BRO HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WHICH HAS LED TO INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A W TO E SFC TROUGH WHICH LIES NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING/STREAMING N ACROSS SW
LA...BUT HAVE WEAKENED WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS LOST FARTHER N OF THE
SFC TROUGH. THE PROGS DO WEAKEN THE VORT MAX LATER TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NNW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WHERE SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE SRN ZONES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE SSW
850-700MB FLOW...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT PUSH AS FAR N ACROSS E TX/NW
LA AS IT HAS IN RECENT DAYS...BUT THE HRRR AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD PUSH FARTHER NNE ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER N INTO
LINCOLN/UNION/OUACHITA PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR FROM THE LOSS OF HEATING RESULTS IN THE QUICK
DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION. DID ALSO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT WILL
FOCUS MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WHEN PEAK HEATING IS REACHED.
WITH THE AC SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING BY AFTERNOON...AND THE MORNING
LOW STRATUS QUICKLY LIFTING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAT IS ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE RESIDES IN VC OF OUR REGION OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE 700MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN AR
SUNDAY...AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE OVER ERN LA/SE AR SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK...BUT RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HEAT
INDICES SUCH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA/S AR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAVMOS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS WARM BIAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER FARTHER NE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE EXTREME HEAT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON OUR
AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE GRADUAL...UNTIL WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE
CENTER ARE ABLE TO MIGRATE W ACROSS MS/SE LA MONDAY...WHICH MAY TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX. WITH THESE
WEAKNESSES NUDGING CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY...MORE IN THE WAY
OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES
THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING
E ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS STOUT WITH THE RIDGE
CENTER ACTUALLY RETROGRADING W BACK ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A
MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE /IF ANY AT ALL/ BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE KEEPING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  74  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  94  73  96  73  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEQ  94  72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  72  96  73  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  97  74  97 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 211757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/18Z TAFS...DENSE CU FIELD WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2500 AND 3000 FEET PERSISTS RESULTING IN A MIX OF MVFR/LOW-END VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT WHILE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY THINS. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU. SHWRS/TSTMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS
FRIDAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING. CUMULUS
IS TAKING ON MORE OF A HORIZONTAL ROW APPEARANCE WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME MIXING BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME PEEKS
OF SUN TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH EVENTUALLY SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5KFT ALLOWED THE STRATUS TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND CONDENSE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THIS MIX DOWN ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING
WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS NOTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
ACROSS TX.

LOOKING AT NEW RAW 12Z NAM OUTPUT...THERE REMAINS A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK BUT
OBVIOUS 850-700MB THETAE AXIS ALSO RESIDES ACROSS THIS GENERAL
AREA AND AS A RESULT...THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE FAVORABLE
REGION TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE CLOUDS THIN...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEMS GETTING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH FCST MAX TEMPS WITH 15Z OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
RUNNING SOME 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY
ATTM.

NO UPDATE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER NCNTRL LA...WHICH IS ALONG A ELEVATED WEAK SHEAR AXIS NOTED ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP EXTENDING FROM SE TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA INTO CNTRL
MS/NRN AL. THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY THIS
MORNING OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...WHICH ARE THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF
THE ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
NOW AFFECTING THE ERN MX COAST S OF BRO HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WHICH HAS LED TO INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A W TO E SFC TROUGH WHICH LIES NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING/STREAMING N ACROSS SW
LA...BUT HAVE WEAKENED WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS LOST FARTHER N OF THE
SFC TROUGH. THE PROGS DO WEAKEN THE VORT MAX LATER TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NNW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WHERE SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE SRN ZONES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE SSW
850-700MB FLOW...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT PUSH AS FAR N ACROSS E TX/NW
LA AS IT HAS IN RECENT DAYS...BUT THE HRRR AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD PUSH FARTHER NNE ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER N INTO
LINCOLN/UNION/OUACHITA PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR FROM THE LOSS OF HEATING RESULTS IN THE QUICK
DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION. DID ALSO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT WILL
FOCUS MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WHEN PEAK HEATING IS REACHED.
WITH THE AC SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING BY AFTERNOON...AND THE MORNING
LOW STRATUS QUICKLY LIFTING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAT IS ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE RESIDES IN VC OF OUR REGION OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE 700MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN AR
SUNDAY...AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE OVER ERN LA/SE AR SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK...BUT RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HEAT
INDICES SUCH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA/S AR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAVMOS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS WARM BIAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER FARTHER NE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE EXTREME HEAT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON OUR
AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE GRADUAL...UNTIL WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE
CENTER ARE ABLE TO MIGRATE W ACROSS MS/SE LA MONDAY...WHICH MAY TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX. WITH THESE
WEAKNESSES NUDGING CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY...MORE IN THE WAY
OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES
THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING
E ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS STOUT WITH THE RIDGE
CENTER ACTUALLY RETROGRADING W BACK ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A
MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE /IF ANY AT ALL/ BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE KEEPING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  74  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  94  73  96  73  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEQ  94  72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  72  96  73  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  97  74  97 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1035 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING. CUMULUS
IS TAKING ON MORE OF A HORIZONTAL ROW APPEARANCE WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME MIXING BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME PEEKS
OF SUN TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH EVENTUALLY SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5KFT ALLOWED THE STRATUS TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND CONDENSE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THIS MIX DOWN ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING
WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS NOTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
ACROSS TX.

LOOKING AT NEW RAW 12Z NAM OUTPUT...THERE REMAINS A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK BUT
OBVIOUS 850-700MB THETAE AXIS ALSO RESIDES ACROSS THIS GENERAL
AREA AND AS A RESULT...THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE FAVORABLE
REGION TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE CLOUDS THIN...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEMS GETTING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH FCST MAX TEMPS WITH 15Z OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
RUNNING SOME 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY
ATTM.

NO UPDATE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER NCNTRL LA...WHICH IS ALONG A ELEVATED WEAK SHEAR AXIS NOTED ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP EXTENDING FROM SE TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA INTO CNTRL
MS/NRN AL. THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY THIS
MORNING OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...WHICH ARE THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF
THE ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
NOW AFFECTING THE ERN MX COAST S OF BRO HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WHICH HAS LED TO INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A W TO E SFC TROUGH WHICH LIES NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING/STREAMING N ACROSS SW
LA...BUT HAVE WEAKENED WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS LOST FARTHER N OF THE
SFC TROUGH. THE PROGS DO WEAKEN THE VORT MAX LATER TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NNW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WHERE SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE SRN ZONES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE SSW
850-700MB FLOW...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT PUSH AS FAR N ACROSS E TX/NW
LA AS IT HAS IN RECENT DAYS...BUT THE HRRR AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD PUSH FARTHER NNE ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER N INTO
LINCOLN/UNION/OUACHITA PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR FROM THE LOSS OF HEATING RESULTS IN THE QUICK
DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION. DID ALSO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT WILL
FOCUS MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WHEN PEAK HEATING IS REACHED.
WITH THE AC SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING BY AFTERNOON...AND THE MORNING
LOW STRATUS QUICKLY LIFTING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAT IS ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE RESIDES IN VC OF OUR REGION OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE 700MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN AR
SUNDAY...AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE OVER ERN LA/SE AR SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK...BUT RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HEAT
INDICES SUCH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA/S AR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAVMOS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS WARM BIAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER FARTHER NE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE EXTREME HEAT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON OUR
AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE GRADUAL...UNTIL WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE
CENTER ARE ABLE TO MIGRATE W ACROSS MS/SE LA MONDAY...WHICH MAY TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX. WITH THESE
WEAKNESSES NUDGING CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY...MORE IN THE WAY
OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES
THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING
E ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS STOUT WITH THE RIDGE
CENTER ACTUALLY RETROGRADING W BACK ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A
MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE /IF ANY AT ALL/ BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE KEEPING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  74  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  94  73  96  73  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEQ  94  72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  72  96  73  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  97  74  97 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 211535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1035 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING. CUMULUS
IS TAKING ON MORE OF A HORIZONTAL ROW APPEARANCE WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME MIXING BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME PEEKS
OF SUN TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH EVENTUALLY SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5KFT ALLOWED THE STRATUS TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND CONDENSE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THIS MIX DOWN ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING
WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS NOTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
ACROSS TX.

LOOKING AT NEW RAW 12Z NAM OUTPUT...THERE REMAINS A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK BUT
OBVIOUS 850-700MB THETAE AXIS ALSO RESIDES ACROSS THIS GENERAL
AREA AND AS A RESULT...THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE FAVORABLE
REGION TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE CLOUDS THIN...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEMS GETTING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH FCST MAX TEMPS WITH 15Z OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
RUNNING SOME 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY
ATTM.

NO UPDATE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER NCNTRL LA...WHICH IS ALONG A ELEVATED WEAK SHEAR AXIS NOTED ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP EXTENDING FROM SE TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA INTO CNTRL
MS/NRN AL. THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY THIS
MORNING OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...WHICH ARE THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF
THE ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
NOW AFFECTING THE ERN MX COAST S OF BRO HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WHICH HAS LED TO INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A W TO E SFC TROUGH WHICH LIES NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING/STREAMING N ACROSS SW
LA...BUT HAVE WEAKENED WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS LOST FARTHER N OF THE
SFC TROUGH. THE PROGS DO WEAKEN THE VORT MAX LATER TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NNW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WHERE SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE SRN ZONES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE SSW
850-700MB FLOW...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT PUSH AS FAR N ACROSS E TX/NW
LA AS IT HAS IN RECENT DAYS...BUT THE HRRR AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD PUSH FARTHER NNE ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER N INTO
LINCOLN/UNION/OUACHITA PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR FROM THE LOSS OF HEATING RESULTS IN THE QUICK
DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION. DID ALSO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT WILL
FOCUS MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WHEN PEAK HEATING IS REACHED.
WITH THE AC SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING BY AFTERNOON...AND THE MORNING
LOW STRATUS QUICKLY LIFTING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAT IS ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE RESIDES IN VC OF OUR REGION OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE 700MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN AR
SUNDAY...AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE OVER ERN LA/SE AR SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK...BUT RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HEAT
INDICES SUCH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA/S AR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAVMOS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS WARM BIAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER FARTHER NE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE EXTREME HEAT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON OUR
AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE GRADUAL...UNTIL WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE
CENTER ARE ABLE TO MIGRATE W ACROSS MS/SE LA MONDAY...WHICH MAY TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX. WITH THESE
WEAKNESSES NUDGING CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY...MORE IN THE WAY
OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES
THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING
E ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS STOUT WITH THE RIDGE
CENTER ACTUALLY RETROGRADING W BACK ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A
MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE /IF ANY AT ALL/ BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE KEEPING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  74  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  94  73  96  73  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEQ  94  72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  72  96  73  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  97  74  97 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER NCNTRL LA...WHICH IS ALONG A ELEVATED WEAK SHEAR AXIS NOTED ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP EXTENDING FROM SE TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA INTO CNTRL
MS/NRN AL. THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY THIS
MORNING OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...WHICH ARE THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF
THE ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
NOW AFFECTING THE ERN MX COAST S OF BRO HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WHICH HAS LED TO INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A W TO E SFC TROUGH WHICH LIES NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING/STREAMING N ACROSS SW
LA...BUT HAVE WEAKENED WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS LOST FARTHER N OF THE
SFC TROUGH. THE PROGS DO WEAKEN THE VORT MAX LATER TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NNW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WHERE SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE SRN ZONES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE SSW
850-700MB FLOW...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT PUSH AS FAR N ACROSS E TX/NW
LA AS IT HAS IN RECENT DAYS...BUT THE HRRR AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD PUSH FARTHER NNE ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER N INTO
LINCOLN/UNION/OUACHITA PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR FROM THE LOSS OF HEATING RESULTS IN THE QUICK
DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION. DID ALSO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT WILL
FOCUS MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WHEN PEAK HEATING IS REACHED.
WITH THE AC SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING BY AFTERNOON...AND THE MORNING
LOW STRATUS QUICKLY LIFTING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAT IS ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE RESIDES IN VC OF OUR REGION OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE 700MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN AR
SUNDAY...AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE OVER ERN LA/SE AR SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK...BUT RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HEAT
INDICES SUCH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA/S AR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAVMOS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS WARM BIAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER FARTHER NE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE EXTREME HEAT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON OUR
AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE GRADUAL...UNTIL WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE
CENTER ARE ABLE TO MIGRATE W ACROSS MS/SE LA MONDAY...WHICH MAY TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX. WITH THESE
WEAKNESSES NUDGING CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY...MORE IN THE WAY
OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES
THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING
E ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS STOUT WITH THE RIDGE
CENTER ACTUALLY RETROGRADING W BACK ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A
MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE /IF ANY AT ALL/ BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE KEEPING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  74  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MLU  94  73  96  73  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEQ  94  72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  72  96  73  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  96  74  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  97  74  97 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO REMOVE THE
MENTION OF RAIN WHICH WAS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE CONVECTION DID LOWER TEMPS IN SOME AREAS TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO ADJACENT DEEP EAST TEXAS.
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...AND LOWERED
TONIGHT`S MINS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NATCHITOCHES AREA.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  96  76  97  74 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210252
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO REMOVE THE
MENTION OF RAIN WHICH WAS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE CONVECTION DID LOWER TEMPS IN SOME AREAS TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO ADJACENT DEEP EAST TEXAS.
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...AND LOWERED
TONIGHTS MINS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NATCHITOCHES AREA.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN
THE TAFS THIS PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  96  76  97  74 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 210252
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO REMOVE THE
MENTION OF RAIN WHICH WAS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE CONVECTION DID LOWER TEMPS IN SOME AREAS TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO ADJACENT DEEP EAST TEXAS.
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...AND LOWERED
TONIGHTS MINS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NATCHITOCHES AREA.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN
THE TAFS THIS PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  96  76  97  74 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
804 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN
THE TAFS THIS PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PD. /12/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
804 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN
THE TAFS THIS PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PD. /12/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05








000
FXUS64 KSHV 201748
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NWD INTO DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
AFFECTING KLFK. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TOWARDS
I-20 BUT COVERAGE FARTHER N IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AFTER 21/08Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-20. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 21/15Z AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES AND
SWLY SFC WINDS RESUME BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201748
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NWD INTO DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
AFFECTING KLFK. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TOWARDS
I-20 BUT COVERAGE FARTHER N IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AFTER 21/08Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-20. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 21/15Z AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES AND
SWLY SFC WINDS RESUME BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 201505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 201131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...A QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH A FEW
TERMINALS WITH IN AND OUT MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A BRISK
LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW 15-30KTS IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND
FEET. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT S/SE 5KTS OR LESS NOW AND LESS THAN
10KTS DURING HEATING. ALOFT...N WINDS WILL KEEP ANVILS BACK OVER
RAIN AREAS...SO A GOOD SEA BREEZE LIKELY TODAY...PUSHING TSTM
ACTIVITY INTO I-20 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW S OF
KGLS WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OFF SHORE ALREADY SET TO MOVE INLAND EARLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...A QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH A FEW
TERMINALS WITH IN AND OUT MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A BRISK
LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW 15-30KTS IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND
FEET. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT S/SE 5KTS OR LESS NOW AND LESS THAN
10KTS DURING HEATING. ALOFT...N WINDS WILL KEEP ANVILS BACK OVER
RAIN AREAS...SO A GOOD SEA BREEZE LIKELY TODAY...PUSHING TSTM
ACTIVITY INTO I-20 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW S OF
KGLS WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OFF SHORE ALREADY SET TO MOVE INLAND EARLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200909
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200909
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200442
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 06Z TAF PD. MOSTLY TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE AT A FEW SITES...BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT BY MID
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WEDNESDAY...BUT COVERAGE TOO ISOLD TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S TO SWLY WINDS 5-10 KTS
THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
GRIDS. THE RAIN AND OUTFLOWS HAVE PLAYED HAVOC WITH TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH
REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. SOME CURRENT READINGS ARE NEAR FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

OTHER THAN TONIGHT`S POPS...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200214
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
GRIDS. THE RAIN AND OUTFLOWS HAVE PLAYED HAVOC WITH TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH
REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. SOME CURRENT READINGS ARE NEAR FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

OTHER THAN TONIGHTS POPS...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ATTM...ALTHOUGH A STRONG NWD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF PD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AND S-SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 200214
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
GRIDS. THE RAIN AND OUTFLOWS HAVE PLAYED HAVOC WITH TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH
REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. SOME CURRENT READINGS ARE NEAR FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

OTHER THAN TONIGHTS POPS...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ATTM...ALTHOUGH A STRONG NWD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF PD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AND S-SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 200033
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ATTM...ALTHOUGH A STRONG NWD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF PD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AND S-SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200033
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ATTM...ALTHOUGH A STRONG NWD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF PD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AND S-SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







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