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000
FXUS64 KSHV 310516 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS AGAIN REDEVELOPED OVER SE
OK/N TX NEAR AND N OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF THE
RED RIVER OF N TX...ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX INTO SE TX. MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR DTO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING SE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BNDRY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-12Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO THUNDER INTO THESE
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR 10KFT GRADUALLY LOWER WITH
TIME AS THE SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE OK/SW AR...WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AROUND/AFTER 12Z ACROSS SW AR. IN ADDITION...LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE TX AND ADVECT N INTO DEEP E TX AROUND 12Z AS
WELL. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/SW
AR/NW LA BY 12Z...WITH IT POSSIBLY DIMINISHING SLOWLY FROM W TO E BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK...AS A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC FRONT SHIFT ESE INTO E TX. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE E TX/SHV
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FG LOOK TO SET IN LATE ACROSS E TX/WRN LA. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SSE AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  50  50  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  20  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  80  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  10
TYR  72  83  68  84  70 /  60  50  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  60  50  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310516 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS AGAIN REDEVELOPED OVER SE
OK/N TX NEAR AND N OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF THE
RED RIVER OF N TX...ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX INTO SE TX. MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR DTO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING SE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BNDRY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-12Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO THUNDER INTO THESE
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR 10KFT GRADUALLY LOWER WITH
TIME AS THE SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE OK/SW AR...WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AROUND/AFTER 12Z ACROSS SW AR. IN ADDITION...LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE TX AND ADVECT N INTO DEEP E TX AROUND 12Z AS
WELL. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/SW
AR/NW LA BY 12Z...WITH IT POSSIBLY DIMINISHING SLOWLY FROM W TO E BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK...AS A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC FRONT SHIFT ESE INTO E TX. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE E TX/SHV
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FG LOOK TO SET IN LATE ACROSS E TX/WRN LA. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SSE AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  50  50  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  20  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  80  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  10
TYR  72  83  68  84  70 /  60  50  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  60  50  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310307
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  50  50  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  20  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  80  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  10
TYR  72  83  68  84  70 /  60  50  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  60  50  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310004 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310004 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 302008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 302008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  78  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  81  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  84  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  78  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  81  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  84  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK THIS
MORNING...AND MOST OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS QUITE
WELL. RAIN IS FCST TO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD INTO N LA/SRN AR
THROUGHOUT TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW APPROACHES. CURRENT
POP FCST IS ON TRACK...BUT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY MAY RUN A LITTLE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS OF E TX N OF I-20...AS DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  78  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  81  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  84  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK THIS
MORNING...AND MOST OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS QUITE
WELL. RAIN IS FCST TO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD INTO N LA/SRN AR
THROUGHOUT TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW APPROACHES. CURRENT
POP FCST IS ON TRACK...BUT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY MAY RUN A LITTLE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS OF E TX N OF I-20...AS DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  78  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  81  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  84  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300902
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  79  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  85  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  86  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  90  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300902
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  79  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  85  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  86  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  90  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300731
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  69  82  68  83 /  20  50  40  40  20
MLU  86  66  81  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
DEQ  77  64  76  64  80 /  50  80  60  20  10
TXK  82  66  77  65  82 /  50  70  60  30  10
ELD  84  65  77  64  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  82  69  83 /  20  50  40  30  10
GGG  88  71  82  69  84 /  20  50  40  30  20
LFK  93  73  89  72  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 300731
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  69  82  68  83 /  20  50  40  40  20
MLU  86  66  81  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
DEQ  77  64  76  64  80 /  50  80  60  20  10
TXK  82  66  77  65  82 /  50  70  60  30  10
ELD  84  65  77  64  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  82  69  83 /  20  50  40  30  10
GGG  88  71  82  69  84 /  20  50  40  30  20
LFK  93  73  89  72  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300507 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1207 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
AREAS OF AC HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS
OF E TX...BUT OTHER AREAS OF AC HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER W OVER N
TX/SE OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ESE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS...THE INCREASING CIRRUS...AND DRIER AIR IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SHOULD INHIBIT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE AC SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT AFTER
12Z OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...AS AREAS OF CONVECTION INCREASE OVER
MUCH OF OK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND N OF A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST S OF THE RED RIVER OF NW TX. SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF -RA SPREAD E FROM THE AC BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR...AND HAVE
INCLUDED -RA MENTION FOR THE TXK TERMINAL ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY -RA THAT FALLS SHOULD NOT AFFECT VSBYS OR
CIGS...BEFORE IT TEMPORARILY DIMINISHES FOR THE EVENING. COULD
ALSO SEE A WEAK CU FIELD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY BENEATH THE AC
SHIELD...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AR TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT QUICKLY SPILL SE INTO NE TX/SW AR BY 12Z.
THUS...SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY THAT TIME. E
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300507 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1207 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
AREAS OF AC HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS
OF E TX...BUT OTHER AREAS OF AC HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER W OVER N
TX/SE OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ESE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS...THE INCREASING CIRRUS...AND DRIER AIR IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SHOULD INHIBIT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE AC SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT AFTER
12Z OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...AS AREAS OF CONVECTION INCREASE OVER
MUCH OF OK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND N OF A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST S OF THE RED RIVER OF NW TX. SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF -RA SPREAD E FROM THE AC BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR...AND HAVE
INCLUDED -RA MENTION FOR THE TXK TERMINAL ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY -RA THAT FALLS SHOULD NOT AFFECT VSBYS OR
CIGS...BEFORE IT TEMPORARILY DIMINISHES FOR THE EVENING. COULD
ALSO SEE A WEAK CU FIELD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY BENEATH THE AC
SHIELD...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AR TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT QUICKLY SPILL SE INTO NE TX/SW AR BY 12Z.
THUS...SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY THAT TIME. E
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 292353 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 292353 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 292005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN COOLER...
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 292005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN COOLER...
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291620
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN COOLER...
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  88  70  81  69 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  66  87  67  79  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  67  77  66  78  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  83  67  78  67 /  10  30  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  66  76  65 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  89  70  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  87  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

08





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291620
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN COOLER...
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  88  70  81  69 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  66  87  67  79  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  67  77  66  78  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  83  67  78  67 /  10  30  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  66  76  65 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  89  70  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  87  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

08






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291524
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHWRS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX/W
CENTRAL LA THIS MORNING. WHILE THEY ARE MOVING SWD...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLD REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE AREAS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ADDED SOME 20 POPS TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT IS WELL S AND W OF THE AREA
ATTM. CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER PARTS OF E TX...AND HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO MATCH WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. FOR
TEMPS...AT 10 AM...MUCH OF NE TX/SW AR/SE OK WERE STILL IN THE
UPPER 70S...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP
THERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SHIPPED SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. NLY SFC FLOW
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP ANY CONVECTION
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE BIG RAIN EVENT EXPECTED THIS WEEK. UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR SW TX. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER KS/OK AS THE TROUGH THEN DIVES SEWD INTO
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
FARTHER NORTH...JUST N OF OUR CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE. GIVEN THE SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AMOUNTS...NO FLOOD HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IF THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH. CURRENT QPF FCST RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND N OF I-30. BEST RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN THE
STALLED FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.

TEMP FCST WILL LIKELY BE VERY PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LONG DURATION
WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT IS
PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THAT TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FCST
IN SOME LOCATIONS IF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SEVERAL HRS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  69  88  70  81 /  10  10  20  50  40
MLU  90  66  87  67  79 /   0  10  20  40  40
DEQ  90  67  77  66  78 /   0  10  50  80  60
TXK  88  67  83  67  78 /   0  10  30  70  60
ELD  88  64  84  66  76 /   0  10  30  50  60
TYR  92  72  88  71  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
GGG  92  71  89  70  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
LFK  94  71  93  73  87 /  20  10  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291524
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHWRS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX/W
CENTRAL LA THIS MORNING. WHILE THEY ARE MOVING SWD...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLD REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE AREAS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ADDED SOME 20 POPS TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT IS WELL S AND W OF THE AREA
ATTM. CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER PARTS OF E TX...AND HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO MATCH WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. FOR
TEMPS...AT 10 AM...MUCH OF NE TX/SW AR/SE OK WERE STILL IN THE
UPPER 70S...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP
THERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SHIPPED SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. NLY SFC FLOW
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP ANY CONVECTION
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE BIG RAIN EVENT EXPECTED THIS WEEK. UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR SW TX. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER KS/OK AS THE TROUGH THEN DIVES SEWD INTO
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
FARTHER NORTH...JUST N OF OUR CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE. GIVEN THE SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AMOUNTS...NO FLOOD HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IF THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH. CURRENT QPF FCST RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND N OF I-30. BEST RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN THE
STALLED FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.

TEMP FCST WILL LIKELY BE VERY PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LONG DURATION
WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT IS
PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THAT TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FCST
IN SOME LOCATIONS IF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SEVERAL HRS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  69  88  70  81 /  10  10  20  50  40
MLU  90  66  87  67  79 /   0  10  20  40  40
DEQ  90  67  77  66  78 /   0  10  50  80  60
TXK  88  67  83  67  78 /   0  10  30  70  60
ELD  88  64  84  66  76 /   0  10  30  50  60
TYR  92  72  88  71  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
GGG  92  71  89  70  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
LFK  94  71  93  73  87 /  20  10  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290857
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
357 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. NLY SFC FLOW
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP ANY CONVECTION
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE BIG RAIN EVENT EXPECTED THIS WEEK. UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR SW TX. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER KS/OK AS THE TROUGH THEN DIVES SEWD INTO
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
FARTHER NORTH...JUST N OF OUR CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE. GIVEN THE SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AMOUNTS...NO FLOOD HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IF THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH. CURRENT QPF FCST RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND N OF I-30. BEST RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN THE
STALLED FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.

TEMP FCST WILL LIKELY BE VERY PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LONG DURATION
WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT IS
PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THAT TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FCST
IN SOME LOCATIONS IF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SEVERAL HRS. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WAS WELL SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING REMNANT CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM MONDAY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THINNING AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. ALTOCUMULUS IN THE 10-14KFT LAYER IS INCREASING HOWEVER
ACROSS NE TX IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TERMINAL FORECAST FOR THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A GRADUALLY DRYING OF THIS
10-14KFT MOISTURE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE A WEAK CU FIELD NEAR 4-5KFT DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY CEILINGS TO SPEAK OF.

LOOK FOR NE WINDS TODAY NEAR 5-9KTS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  69  88  70  81 /  10  10  20  50  40
MLU  90  66  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  40  40
DEQ  90  67  77  66  78 /  10  10  50  80  60
TXK  91  67  83  67  78 /  10  10  30  70  60
ELD  88  64  84  66  76 /  10  10  30  50  60
TYR  92  72  88  71  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
GGG  92  71  89  70  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
LFK  94  71  93  73  87 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290857
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
357 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. NLY SFC FLOW
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP ANY CONVECTION
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE BIG RAIN EVENT EXPECTED THIS WEEK. UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR SW TX. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER KS/OK AS THE TROUGH THEN DIVES SEWD INTO
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
FARTHER NORTH...JUST N OF OUR CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE. GIVEN THE SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AMOUNTS...NO FLOOD HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IF THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH. CURRENT QPF FCST RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND N OF I-30. BEST RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN THE
STALLED FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.

TEMP FCST WILL LIKELY BE VERY PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LONG DURATION
WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT IS
PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THAT TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FCST
IN SOME LOCATIONS IF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SEVERAL HRS. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WAS WELL SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING REMNANT CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM MONDAY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THINNING AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. ALTOCUMULUS IN THE 10-14KFT LAYER IS INCREASING HOWEVER
ACROSS NE TX IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TERMINAL FORECAST FOR THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A GRADUALLY DRYING OF THIS
10-14KFT MOISTURE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE A WEAK CU FIELD NEAR 4-5KFT DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY CEILINGS TO SPEAK OF.

LOOK FOR NE WINDS TODAY NEAR 5-9KTS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  69  88  70  81 /  10  10  20  50  40
MLU  90  66  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  40  40
DEQ  90  67  77  66  78 /  10  10  50  80  60
TXK  91  67  83  67  78 /  10  10  30  70  60
ELD  88  64  84  66  76 /  10  10  30  50  60
TYR  92  72  88  71  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
GGG  92  71  89  70  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
LFK  94  71  93  73  87 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 290732
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
232 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WAS WELL SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING REMNANT CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM MONDAY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THINNING AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. ALTOCUMULUS IN THE 10-14KFT LAYER IS INCREASING HOWEVER
ACROSS NE TX IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TERMINAL FORECAST FOR THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A GRADUALLY DRYING OF THIS
10-14KFT MOISTURE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE A WEAK CU FIELD NEAR 4-5KFT DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY CEILINGS TO SPEAK OF.

LOOK FOR NE WINDS TODAY NEAR 5-9KTS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  69  86  70  84 /  10  10  30  40  40
MLU  90  64  86  67  84 /   0  10  30  30  40
DEQ  88  66  81  66  78 /   0  20  50  60  50
TXK  89  66  83  67  80 /   0  10  50  50  50
ELD  89  64  84  66  81 /   0  10  40  30  50
TYR  92  71  90  71  85 /  10  10  30  40  30
GGG  92  69  88  70  84 /  10  10  30  40  30
LFK  93  71  92  73  86 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 290732
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
232 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WAS WELL SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING REMNANT CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM MONDAY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THINNING AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. ALTOCUMULUS IN THE 10-14KFT LAYER IS INCREASING HOWEVER
ACROSS NE TX IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TERMINAL FORECAST FOR THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A GRADUALLY DRYING OF THIS
10-14KFT MOISTURE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY SEE A WEAK CU FIELD NEAR 4-5KFT DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY CEILINGS TO SPEAK OF.

LOOK FOR NE WINDS TODAY NEAR 5-9KTS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  69  86  70  84 /  10  10  30  40  40
MLU  90  64  86  67  84 /   0  10  30  30  40
DEQ  88  66  81  66  78 /   0  20  50  60  50
TXK  89  66  83  67  80 /   0  10  50  50  50
ELD  89  64  84  66  81 /   0  10  40  30  50
TYR  92  71  90  71  85 /  10  10  30  40  30
GGG  92  69  88  70  84 /  10  10  30  40  30
LFK  93  71  92  73  86 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290415
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1115 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON TUESDAY. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 30/00Z.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  86  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
MLU  66  90  64  86  67 /  10   0  10  30  30
DEQ  63  88  66  81  66 /   0   0  20  50  60
TXK  67  89  66  83  67 /   0   0  10  50  50
ELD  64  89  64  84  66 /   0   0  10  40  30
TYR  71  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  40
GGG  69  92  69  88  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
LFK  72  93  71  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290415
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1115 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON TUESDAY. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 30/00Z.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  86  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
MLU  66  90  64  86  67 /  10   0  10  30  30
DEQ  63  88  66  81  66 /   0   0  20  50  60
TXK  67  89  66  83  67 /   0   0  10  50  50
ELD  64  89  64  84  66 /   0   0  10  40  30
TYR  71  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  40
GGG  69  92  69  88  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
LFK  72  93  71  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 290249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1021MB OVER N MO WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. OUR
KSHV 88D RADAR IS TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE.
AREA PRETTY WORKED OVER AND WE HAVE PULLED THE LESSER COVERAGE OF
06Z POPS INTO THE CURRENT TIMEFRAME TO LIMIT OVERNIGHT WORDING.
ISSUED A SET OF NEW ZONES FOR SUCH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH
MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL WINDS PICK UP A BIT AND BUILD SPREADS
SOUTHWARD. TYR/GGG CALM ATTM WITH VRB OVER DEEP E TX. SOUTHERN
TIER FRESHLY WET SOIL AND PERIODS OF LIGHT OR CALM WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. NO CHANGES TO
LOWS...JUST TWEAKS TO SKY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
/24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH LFK TERMINAL SITE THROUGH
29/02Z IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  86  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
MLU  66  90  64  86  67 /  10   0  10  30  30
DEQ  63  88  66  81  66 /   0   0  20  50  60
TXK  67  89  66  83  67 /   0   0  10  50  50
ELD  64  89  64  84  66 /   0   0  10  40  30
TYR  71  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  40
GGG  69  92  69  88  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
LFK  72  93  71  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 290249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1021MB OVER N MO WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. OUR
KSHV 88D RADAR IS TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE.
AREA PRETTY WORKED OVER AND WE HAVE PULLED THE LESSER COVERAGE OF
06Z POPS INTO THE CURRENT TIMEFRAME TO LIMIT OVERNIGHT WORDING.
ISSUED A SET OF NEW ZONES FOR SUCH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH
MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL WINDS PICK UP A BIT AND BUILD SPREADS
SOUTHWARD. TYR/GGG CALM ATTM WITH VRB OVER DEEP E TX. SOUTHERN
TIER FRESHLY WET SOIL AND PERIODS OF LIGHT OR CALM WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. NO CHANGES TO
LOWS...JUST TWEAKS TO SKY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
/24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH LFK TERMINAL SITE THROUGH
29/02Z IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  86  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
MLU  66  90  64  86  67 /  10   0  10  30  30
DEQ  63  88  66  81  66 /   0   0  20  50  60
TXK  67  89  66  83  67 /   0   0  10  50  50
ELD  64  89  64  84  66 /   0   0  10  40  30
TYR  71  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  40
GGG  69  92  69  88  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
LFK  72  93  71  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 282326
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH LFK TERMINAL SITE THROUGH
29/02Z IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  86  70 /  20  10  10  30  40
MLU  66  90  64  86  67 /  10   0  10  30  30
DEQ  63  88  66  81  66 /  10   0  20  50  60
TXK  67  89  66  83  67 /  10   0  10  50  50
ELD  64  89  64  84  66 /  10   0  10  40  30
TYR  71  92  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  30  40
GGG  69  92  69  88  70 /  20  10  10  30  40
LFK  72  93  71  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 282326
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH LFK TERMINAL SITE THROUGH
29/02Z IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  86  70 /  20  10  10  30  40
MLU  66  90  64  86  67 /  10   0  10  30  30
DEQ  63  88  66  81  66 /  10   0  20  50  60
TXK  67  89  66  83  67 /  10   0  10  50  50
ELD  64  89  64  84  66 /  10   0  10  40  30
TYR  71  92  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  30  40
GGG  69  92  69  88  70 /  20  10  10  30  40
LFK  72  93  71  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281954
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
254 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR SECOND RARE JULY COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON CONTINUES TO PUSH
SWD ACROSS DEEP E TX/CENTRAL LA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE COAST. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SEWD IN NW FLOW ALOFT...DRAWING THE FRONT BACK NWD AND BRINGING
RAIN BACK TO PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL TWEAKING
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT...BUT IT
SEEMS REASONABLY CERTAIN THAT MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BEFORE
SPREADING SWD AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FORCES THE FRONT SWD.
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY DIP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST S OF THE REGION WITH
DISTURBED NW FLOW DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS SUBDUED AND RAIN CHANCES IN
MAINLY S OF I-20 THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH S TO THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  86  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
MLU  66  90  64  86  67 /  10   0  10  30  30
DEQ  63  88  66  81  66 /  10   0  20  50  60
TXK  67  89  66  83  67 /  10   0  10  50  50
ELD  64  89  64  84  66 /  10   0  10  40  30
TYR  71  92  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  30  40
GGG  69  92  69  88  70 /  20  10  10  30  40
LFK  72  93  71  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281954
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
254 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR SECOND RARE JULY COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON CONTINUES TO PUSH
SWD ACROSS DEEP E TX/CENTRAL LA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE COAST. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SEWD IN NW FLOW ALOFT...DRAWING THE FRONT BACK NWD AND BRINGING
RAIN BACK TO PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL TWEAKING
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT...BUT IT
SEEMS REASONABLY CERTAIN THAT MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BEFORE
SPREADING SWD AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FORCES THE FRONT SWD.
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY DIP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST S OF THE REGION WITH
DISTURBED NW FLOW DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS SUBDUED AND RAIN CHANCES IN
MAINLY S OF I-20 THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH S TO THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  86  70 /  10  10  10  30  40
MLU  66  90  64  86  67 /  10   0  10  30  30
DEQ  63  88  66  81  66 /  10   0  20  50  60
TXK  67  89  66  83  67 /  10   0  10  50  50
ELD  64  89  64  84  66 /  10   0  10  40  30
TYR  71  92  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  30  40
GGG  69  92  69  88  70 /  20  10  10  30  40
LFK  72  93  71  92  73 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281620
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH S TO THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  92  69  88 /  30  10   0  10  30
MLU  93  66  90  65  87 /  30  10   0  10  30
DEQ  90  64  88  64  83 /  20  10   0  20  50
TXK  92  67  89  66  86 /  20  10   0  10  50
ELD  92  65  89  65  85 /  20  10   0  10  50
TYR  93  71  92  71  90 /  30  10   0  10  30
GGG  93  70  92  69  89 /  30  10   0  10  30
LFK  95  73  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

08






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281620
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH S TO THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  92  69  88 /  30  10   0  10  30
MLU  93  66  90  65  87 /  30  10   0  10  30
DEQ  90  64  88  64  83 /  20  10   0  20  50
TXK  92  67  89  66  86 /  20  10   0  10  50
ELD  92  65  89  65  85 /  20  10   0  10  50
TYR  93  71  92  71  90 /  30  10   0  10  30
GGG  93  70  92  69  89 /  30  10   0  10  30
LFK  95  73  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

08





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281513
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NOW ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG A JACKSONVILLE TO ALEXANDRIA
LINE THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY SWD PROGRESS.
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-20. FOR THE UPDATE...NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS OR POPS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...BUT HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH A GENERAL POSITION ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. SHV RADAR INDICATING SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT SAGS SWD FROM SE OK INTO NE TX AND SW AR.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE I-20 BY 12Z...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING LATER
IN THE DAY WITH HEATING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AS MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT AND FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WITH THE ADVANCING BNDRY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
NUMBERS BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 90S
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SERIES OF
FEATURES WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS PLACING THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE EURO AS THIS SOLUTION
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND THE LONGWAVE TROF
PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  92  69  88 /  30  10   0  10  30
MLU  93  66  90  65  87 /  30  10   0  10  30
DEQ  90  64  88  64  83 /  20  10   0  20  50
TXK  92  67  89  66  86 /  20  10   0  10  50
ELD  92  65  89  65  85 /  20  10   0  10  50
TYR  93  71  92  71  90 /  30  10   0  10  30
GGG  93  70  92  69  89 /  30  10   0  10  30
LFK  95  73  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281513
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NOW ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG A JACKSONVILLE TO ALEXANDRIA
LINE THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY SWD PROGRESS.
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-20. FOR THE UPDATE...NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS OR POPS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...BUT HAVE
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH A GENERAL POSITION ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. SHV RADAR INDICATING SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT SAGS SWD FROM SE OK INTO NE TX AND SW AR.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE I-20 BY 12Z...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING LATER
IN THE DAY WITH HEATING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AS MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT AND FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WITH THE ADVANCING BNDRY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
NUMBERS BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 90S
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SERIES OF
FEATURES WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS PLACING THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE EURO AS THIS SOLUTION
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND THE LONGWAVE TROF
PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  92  69  88 /  30  10   0  10  30
MLU  93  66  90  65  87 /  30  10   0  10  30
DEQ  90  64  88  64  83 /  20  10   0  20  50
TXK  92  67  89  66  86 /  20  10   0  10  50
ELD  92  65  89  65  85 /  20  10   0  10  50
TYR  93  71  92  71  90 /  30  10   0  10  30
GGG  93  70  92  69  89 /  30  10   0  10  30
LFK  95  73  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12








000
FXUS64 KSHV 280901
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH A GENERAL POSITION ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. SHV RADAR INDICATING SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT SAGS SWRD FROM SE OK INTO NE TX AND SW AR.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE I-20 BY 12Z...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING LATER
IN THE DAY WITH HEATING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AS MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT AND FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WITH THE ADVANCING BNDRY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
NUMBERS BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 90S
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SERIES OF
FEATURES WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS PLACING THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE EURO AS THIS SOLUTION
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND THE LONGWAVE TROF
PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT NWRD AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A
PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SE OK/SW AR.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR
5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL.

WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH
VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE
NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR
4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  92  69  88 /  30  10   0  10  30
MLU  93  66  90  65  87 /  30  10   0  10  30
DEQ  90  64  88  64  83 /  20  10   0  20  50
TXK  92  67  89  66  86 /  20  10   0  10  50
ELD  92  65  89  65  85 /  20  10   0  10  50
TYR  93  71  92  71  90 /  30  10   0  10  30
GGG  93  70  92  69  89 /  30  10   0  10  30
LFK  95  73  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 280901
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH A GENERAL POSITION ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. SHV RADAR INDICATING SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT SAGS SWRD FROM SE OK INTO NE TX AND SW AR.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE I-20 BY 12Z...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING LATER
IN THE DAY WITH HEATING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AS MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT AND FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WITH THE ADVANCING BNDRY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
NUMBERS BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 90S
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SERIES OF
FEATURES WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS PLACING THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE EURO AS THIS SOLUTION
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND THE LONGWAVE TROF
PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT NWRD AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A
PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SE OK/SW AR.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR
5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL.

WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH
VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE
NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR
4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  92  69  88 /  30  10   0  10  30
MLU  93  66  90  65  87 /  30  10   0  10  30
DEQ  90  64  88  64  83 /  20  10   0  20  50
TXK  92  67  89  66  86 /  20  10   0  10  50
ELD  92  65  89  65  85 /  20  10   0  10  50
TYR  93  71  92  71  90 /  30  10   0  10  30
GGG  93  70  92  69  89 /  30  10   0  10  30
LFK  95  73  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







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