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000
FXUS64 KSHV 100547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK...NW SFC WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE SFC HIGH ADVANCES FARTHER EAST...RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS. ASIDE FROM PASSING
CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 100547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK...NW SFC WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE SFC HIGH ADVANCES FARTHER EAST...RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS. ASIDE FROM PASSING
CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 100547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK...NW SFC WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE SFC HIGH ADVANCES FARTHER EAST...RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS. ASIDE FROM PASSING
CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 100409
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/19/12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 100409
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/19/12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 100021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 100021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 100021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 092041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 092041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 092041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 091824
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

06/12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 091824
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

06/12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 091824
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

06/12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 091641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 10/00Z. WINDS TO BECOME 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 091641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 10/00Z. WINDS TO BECOME 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 091641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 10/00Z. WINDS TO BECOME 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 091127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 10/00Z. WINDS TO BECOME 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  53  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  52  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  52  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  58  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-
     153.

&&

$$

05/05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 091005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HOLD
STRONG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
DURING THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL COLD
FRONTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE STILL QUITE STRONG.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD BRING SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH LAKE WIND CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUITE ABRUPTLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MONDAY`S VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE EXTREMELY DRY SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLED
BY A FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW.

DURING THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST FINALLY
MOVES AWAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WEAKENS. A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME FOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BUILD. SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT I DECIDED
TO MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN EVEN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING DAYS
8-10.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  54  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  54  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  58  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-
     153.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 090502
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1102 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
NW TO WNW WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED NICELY THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 6-12KTS. AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MIXING WILL MAXIMIZE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE END RESULT BEING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS 22-30KTS ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN BEYOND 11/00Z AS WAS THE
CASE EARLIER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK THIS LATE EVENING. OUR WINDS ARE
RUNNING 5-10 MPH AND MAY DO SO ALL NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY FALL AND BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEW POINTS
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  52  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  51  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  33  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  55  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  31  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 090400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK THIS LATE EVENING. OUR WINDS ARE
RUNNING 5-10 MPH AND MAY DO SO ALL NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY FALL AND BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEW POINTS
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
TO DROP LAKE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THE ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
SUNSET WAS AT 5:55 P.M. AND WHILE IT MAY TAKE A HOUR OR SO TO
SLACK GUSTS EVERYWHERE...THE SUPER LOW DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET QUICKLY FROM THE
AFTERNOON 50S. THIS WILL BUILD AN ENVELOPE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OUR SFC FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30KTS
ON OUR VAD AT 2KFT. AND AS GUSTS SLACK...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
FOLLOW SUITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
NORTHWEST GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AS LATE AS 23Z WILL QUICKLY
DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NEAR 10KTS
OR SO OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTER
15Z OR SO WITH SPEEDS NEAR 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 22-30KT
RANGE. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...AS WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN HALF. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JET STREAM TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL AID OUR TEMPS IN SOARING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...AND COOL US BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  52  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  51  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  33  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  55  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  31  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13/12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 090009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
TO DROP LAKE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SUNSET WAS AT 5:55 P.M. AND WHILE IT MAY TAKE A HOUR OR SO TO
SLACK GUSTS EVERYWHERE...THE SUPER LOW DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET QUICKLY FROM THE
AFTERNOON 50S. THIS WILL BUILD AN ENVELOPE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OUR SFC FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30KTS
ON OUR VAD AT 2KFT. AND AS GUSTS SLACK...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
FOLLOW SUITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
NORTHWEST GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AS LATE AS 23Z WILL QUICKLY
DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NEAR 10KTS
OR SO OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTER
15Z OR SO WITH SPEEDS NEAR 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 22-30KT
RANGE. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...AS WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN HALF. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JET STREAM TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL AID OUR TEMPS IN SOARING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...AND COOL US BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  52  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  51  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  33  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  55  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  31  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 082312
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
512 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AS LATE AS 23Z WILL QUICKLY
DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NEAR 10KTS
OR SO OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTER
15Z OR SO WITH SPEEDS NEAR 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 22-30KT
RANGE. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...AS WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN HALF. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JET STREAM TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL AID OUR TEMPS IN SOARING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...AND COOL US BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  52  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  51  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  33  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  55  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  31  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 082012
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...AS WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN HALF. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JET STREAM TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL AID OUR TEMPS IN SOARING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...AND COOL US BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
THROUGH THE 08/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD...ENDING 09/18Z...EXPECTING
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LARGE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND NORTHEAST STATES...WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6-9 KFT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS THROUGH 09/00Z WHEN
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FOUR STATE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING STRONG
BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO 17-25 KNOTS THROUGH 10/00Z. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  52  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  51  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  33  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  55  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  31  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 081843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1243 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE 08/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD...ENDING 09/18Z...EXPECTING
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE WARPPING AROUND A LARGE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND NORTHEAST STATES...WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6-9 KFT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS THROUGH 09/00Z WHEN
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FOUR STATE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING STRONG
BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHERGUSTS
TO 17-25 KNOTS THROUGH 10/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNUSUALLY STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A VERY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. HAVE LOOKED CLOSELY AT THE WIND FCST THIS
MORNING WITH THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY CHANGING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TO A WIND ADVISORY. IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD REACH
INTO THE 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE IN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS FOR A
SHORT TIME...BUT UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD SEE THIS AREAWIDE FOR A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS...AS
WELL AS MAX TEMP GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  51  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  56  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 081843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1243 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE 08/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD...ENDING 09/18Z...EXPECTING
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE WARPPING AROUND A LARGE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND NORTHEAST STATES...WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6-9 KFT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS THROUGH 09/00Z WHEN
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FOUR STATE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING STRONG
BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHERGUSTS
TO 17-25 KNOTS THROUGH 10/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNUSUALLY STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A VERY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. HAVE LOOKED CLOSELY AT THE WIND FCST THIS
MORNING WITH THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY CHANGING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TO A WIND ADVISORY. IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD REACH
INTO THE 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE IN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS FOR A
SHORT TIME...BUT UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD SEE THIS AREAWIDE FOR A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS...AS
WELL AS MAX TEMP GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  51  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  56  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 081843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1243 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE 08/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD...ENDING 09/18Z...EXPECTING
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE WARPPING AROUND A LARGE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND NORTHEAST STATES...WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6-9 KFT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS THROUGH 09/00Z WHEN
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FOUR STATE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING STRONG
BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHERGUSTS
TO 17-25 KNOTS THROUGH 10/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNUSUALLY STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A VERY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. HAVE LOOKED CLOSELY AT THE WIND FCST THIS
MORNING WITH THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY CHANGING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TO A WIND ADVISORY. IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD REACH
INTO THE 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE IN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS FOR A
SHORT TIME...BUT UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD SEE THIS AREAWIDE FOR A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS...AS
WELL AS MAX TEMP GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  51  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  56  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 081640
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UNUSUALLY STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A VERY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. HAVE LOOKED CLOSELY AT THE WIND FCST THIS
MORNING WITH THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY CHANGING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TO A WIND ADVISORY. IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD REACH
INTO THE 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE IN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS FOR A
SHORT TIME...BUT UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD SEE THIS AREAWIDE FOR A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS...AS
WELL AS MAX TEMP GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIODS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 16-22KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. WINDS TO BECOME WEST AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS
AFTER 09/00Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
STG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF I-20 AND SHOULD MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTN. VERY DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DOWNWARD
MIXING OF VERY STG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 2000 FT WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...GUSTING TO NEAR THESE VALUES AT SFC THIS AFTN. LWA
AREAWIDE 6 AM TO 6 PM TODAY...WITH WINDS ALREADY NEAR CRITERIA
NORTH OF I-20. UPPED WIND SPEEDS TO KEEP THEM JUST BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ACTUAL WIND ADVISORY WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING JUST BELOW
CRITERIA AFTER 6 PM. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS
AFTN FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO WIND ADVISORY AND OR EXTENTION OF
LWA BEYOND 6 PM. HAVE TAILORED DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR TODAY AS
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESULTED IN TEMPS
RISING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS AROUND 50
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH TO HOLD. DEPTH OF THIS COLD AIR
MASS...DEPICTED BY NW WINDS IN UPPER LVLS APPROACHING 150 KTS...
WITH NW WINDS ALSO BECMG GUSTY TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT
REINFORCING AIRMASS TUESDAY AFTN.

TEMPS TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY AS SW WINDS PICK UP ACROSS AREA. DRY
FCST TO CONTINUE THRU WKND WITH LIMITED RETURN FLOW...AND WHAT
MEAGER MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE WITH FAST MOVG UPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE CHIEFLY IN THE UPPER LVLS. THUS...ANY
RAIN CHANCES DURG THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE BOTH LIGHT AND
BRIEF. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  51  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  56  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 081126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIODS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 16-22KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. WINDS TO BECOME WEST AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS
AFTER 09/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  54  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  57  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05/05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 081126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIODS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 16-22KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. WINDS TO BECOME WEST AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS
AFTER 09/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  54  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  57  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05/05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 081126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIODS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 16-22KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. WINDS TO BECOME WEST AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS
AFTER 09/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  54  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  57  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05/05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 080937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
337 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF I-20 AND SHOULD MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTN. VERY DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DOWNWARD
MIXING OF VERY STG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 2000 FT WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...GUSTING TO NEAR THESE VALUES AT SFC THIS AFTN. LWA
AREAWIDE 6 AM TO 6 PM TODAY...WITH WINDS ALREADY NEAR CRITERIA
NORTH OF I-20. UPPED WIND SPEEDS TO KEEP THEM JUST BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ACTUAL WIND ADVISORY WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING JUST BELOW
CRITERIA AFTER 6 PM. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS
AFTN FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO WIND ADVISORY AND OR EXTENTION OF
LWA BEYOND 6 PM. HAVE TAILORED DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR TODAY AS
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESULTED IN TEMPS
RISING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS AROUND 50
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH TO HOLD. DEPTH OF THIS COLD AIR
MASS...DEPICTED BY NW WINDS IN UPPER LVLS APPROACHING 150 KTS...
WITH NW WINDS ALSO BECMG GUSTY TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT
REINFORCING AIRMASS TUESDAY AFTN.

TEMPS TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY AS SW WINDS PICK UP ACROSS AREA. DRY
FCST TO CONTINUE THRU WKND WITH LIMITED RETURN FLOW...AND WHAT
MEAGER MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE WITH FAST MOVG UPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE CHIEFLY IN THE UPPER LVLS. THUS...ANY
RAIN CHANCES DURG THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE BOTH LIGHT AND
BRIEF./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  54  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  57  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 080527
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. FRONT AS OF 05Z WAS LOCATED
NEAR A LZK...TXK...GGG...TPL LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WINDS WILL REALLY NOT STRENGTHEN UNTIL
14-16Z TIMEFRAME WITH MIXING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24-28KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE
BEYOND 10/0000Z TOMORROW EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP TOMORROW AS WELL AT THE TXK/ELD/MLU TERMINAL LOCATIONS BUT
THIS CU SHOULD BE AT OR NEAR 5KFT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS ONLY

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-30 NOW AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FOUR STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK. LAKE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
6AM TO 6PM FOR WHAT WILL BE A BANNER LEAF BLOWING DAY.

HOWEVER...OUR FIRE DANGER IS ONLY GOING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS ALL DAY. AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS ALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR BURNING THAT WILL NOT BE AS SAFE UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER
TEXAS.

WE STILL LOOK REALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH OUR
NEXT SHOT AT SOME DECENT RAINFALL MORE THAN A WEEK AWAY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  54  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  32  49  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  36  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  50  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  36  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 080350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS ONLY

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-30 NOW AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FOUR STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK. LAKE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
6AM TO 6PM FOR WHAT WILL BE A BANNER LEAF BLOWING DAY.

HOWEVER...OUR FIRE DANGER IS ONLY GOING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS ALL DAY. AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS ALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR BURNING THAT WILL NOT BE AS SAFE UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER
TEXAS.

WE STILL LOOK REALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH OUR
NEXT SHOT AT SOME DECENT RAINFALL MORE THAN A WEEK AWAY. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE THE
INCREASING WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY IN THE 6-10KT RANGE BUT AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUFFICIENT MIXING...EXPECT WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30KTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE HAVING BRUSHED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
COLD...ARCTIC AIR SPILLS S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

THIS FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABI...TO JUST N OF GYI...INTO SE
OK NW OF HUGO...INTO NW AR S OF FSM AND RUE...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SLIPPING S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX AND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA BY
06Z...EXITING THE REGION BY AND JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
FROPA WILL PASS THROUGH DRY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN INCREASING
NW WINDS. A STRENGTHENING NWRLY LLJ TO 45-50KTS IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO PARTIALLY MIX DOWN AS
WELL...RESULTING IN STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12Z-00Z MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE
REGION. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU FIELD SURGING SSE INTO EXTREME SE
OK/SW AR MONDAY MORNING AND INTO PORTIONS OF N LA BY MIDDAY. THIS
CLOUD COVER...AND THE STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SE OK/SW AR...AND THUS HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE
MORE AMPLE SUN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPILL S IN WAKE OF THE
FROPA MONDAY...WITH MIN RH/S EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 20-30%.
GIVEN THESE RH/S...VERY STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS IN PLACE
GIVEN THE LACK OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THE LAST 2.5 WEEKS...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
GIVEN THE ELEVATED CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP.

A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST E OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AHEAD OF STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA MONDAY. H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 0 TO -5C TUESDAY
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO NEAR/JUST SHY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SFC RIDGING OVER CNTRL TX SHOULD EASE SE INTO THE WRN
GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN
N OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...AND JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...S WINDS QUICKLY RETURN BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SFC FRONT ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS THEY APPROACH 70 DEGREES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE SECOND
FROPA...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY SEEPING S ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MIX IT S OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE W COAST RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS SOME WETTING RAINFALL IS FINALLY POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  54  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  32  49  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  36  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  50  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  36  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/13/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 072343
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
543 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE THE
INCREASING WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY IN THE 6-10KT RANGE BUT AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUFFICIENT MIXING...EXPECT WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30KTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE HAVING BRUSHED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
COLD...ARCTIC AIR SPILLS S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

THIS FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABI...TO JUST N OF GYI...INTO SE
OK NW OF HUGO...INTO NW AR S OF FSM AND RUE...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SLIPPING S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX AND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA BY
06Z...EXITING THE REGION BY AND JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
FROPA WILL PASS THROUGH DRY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN INCREASING
NW WINDS. A STRENGTHENING NWRLY LLJ TO 45-50KTS IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO PARTIALLY MIX DOWN AS
WELL...RESULTING IN STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12Z-00Z MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE
REGION. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU FIELD SURGING SSE INTO EXTREME SE
OK/SW AR MONDAY MORNING AND INTO PORTIONS OF N LA BY MIDDAY. THIS
CLOUD COVER...AND THE STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SE OK/SW AR...AND THUS HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE
MORE AMPLE SUN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPILL S IN WAKE OF THE
FROPA MONDAY...WITH MIN RH/S EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 20-30%.
GIVEN THESE RH/S...VERY STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS IN PLACE
GIVEN THE LACK OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THE LAST 2.5 WEEKS...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
GIVEN THE ELEVATED CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP.

A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST E OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AHEAD OF STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA MONDAY. H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 0 TO -5C TUESDAY
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO NEAR/JUST SHY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SFC RIDGING OVER CNTRL TX SHOULD EASE SE INTO THE WRN
GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN
N OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...AND JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...S WINDS QUICKLY RETURN BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SFC FRONT ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS THEY APPROACH 70 DEGREES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE SECOND
FROPA...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY SEEPING S ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MIX IT S OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE W COAST RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS SOME WETTING RAINFALL IS FINALLY POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  54  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  32  49  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  36  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  50  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  36  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 072343
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
543 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE THE
INCREASING WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY IN THE 6-10KT RANGE BUT AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUFFICIENT MIXING...EXPECT WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30KTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE HAVING BRUSHED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
COLD...ARCTIC AIR SPILLS S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

THIS FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABI...TO JUST N OF GYI...INTO SE
OK NW OF HUGO...INTO NW AR S OF FSM AND RUE...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SLIPPING S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX AND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA BY
06Z...EXITING THE REGION BY AND JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
FROPA WILL PASS THROUGH DRY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN INCREASING
NW WINDS. A STRENGTHENING NWRLY LLJ TO 45-50KTS IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO PARTIALLY MIX DOWN AS
WELL...RESULTING IN STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12Z-00Z MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE
REGION. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU FIELD SURGING SSE INTO EXTREME SE
OK/SW AR MONDAY MORNING AND INTO PORTIONS OF N LA BY MIDDAY. THIS
CLOUD COVER...AND THE STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SE OK/SW AR...AND THUS HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE
MORE AMPLE SUN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPILL S IN WAKE OF THE
FROPA MONDAY...WITH MIN RH/S EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 20-30%.
GIVEN THESE RH/S...VERY STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS IN PLACE
GIVEN THE LACK OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THE LAST 2.5 WEEKS...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
GIVEN THE ELEVATED CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP.

A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST E OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AHEAD OF STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA MONDAY. H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 0 TO -5C TUESDAY
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO NEAR/JUST SHY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SFC RIDGING OVER CNTRL TX SHOULD EASE SE INTO THE WRN
GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN
N OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...AND JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...S WINDS QUICKLY RETURN BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SFC FRONT ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS THEY APPROACH 70 DEGREES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE SECOND
FROPA...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY SEEPING S ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MIX IT S OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE W COAST RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS SOME WETTING RAINFALL IS FINALLY POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  54  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  32  49  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  36  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  50  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  36  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 072204
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
404 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE HAVING BRUSHED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
COLD...ARCTIC AIR SPILLS S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

THIS FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABI...TO JUST N OF GYI...INTO SE
OK NW OF HUGO...INTO NW AR S OF FSM AND RUE...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SLIPPING S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX AND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA BY
06Z...EXITING THE REGION BY AND JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
FROPA WILL PASS THROUGH DRY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN INCREASING
NW WINDS. A STRENGTHENING NWRLY LLJ TO 45-50KTS IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO PARTIALLY MIX DOWN AS
WELL...RESULTING IN STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12Z-00Z MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE
REGION. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU FIELD SURGING SSE INTO EXTREME SE
OK/SW AR MONDAY MORNING AND INTO PORTIONS OF N LA BY MIDDAY. THIS
CLOUD COVER...AND THE STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SE OK/SW AR...AND THUS HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE
MORE AMPLE SUN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPILL S IN WAKE OF THE
FROPA MONDAY...WITH MIN RH/S EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 20-30%.
GIVEN THESE RH/S...VERY STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS IN PLACE
GIVEN THE LACK OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THE LAST 2.5 WEEKS...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
GIVEN THE ELEVATED CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP.

A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST E OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AHEAD OF STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA MONDAY. H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 0 TO -5C TUESDAY
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO NEAR/JUST SHY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SFC RIDGING OVER CNTRL TX SHOULD EASE SE INTO THE WRN
GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN
N OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...AND JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...S WINDS QUICKLY RETURN BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SFC FRONT ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS THEY APPROACH 70 DEGREES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE SECOND
FROPA...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY SEEPING S ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MIX IT S OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE W COAST RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS SOME WETTING RAINFALL IS FINALLY POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 104 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 07/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST...EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD 08/18Z. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT OVERNIGHT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE MORNING MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT... NEARING THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY EVENING...NEAR AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS...SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA...AND JACKSONVILLE TEXAS LINE NEAR
08/06Z...AND TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY 08/12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHWEST 7-12 KNOTS OVER LOUISIANA AND 10-15 KNOTS OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 13-18 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS MONDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  54  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  32  49  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  36  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  50  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  36  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 071904
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 07/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST...EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD 08/18Z.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT OVERNIGHT AND SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE MORNING MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT...
NEARING THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY EVENING...NEAR
AN EL DORADO ARKANSAS...SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA...AND JACKSONVILLE
TEXAS LINE NEAR 08/06Z...AND TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY 08/12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 7-12 KNOTS OVER LOUISIANA AND
10-15 KNOTS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 13-18 KNOTS
AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30
KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER ALL OF THE REGION OBSERVED A HEAVY FROST AND SUBFREEZING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP QUITE NICELY AS OF
16-17Z...HAVING ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. SFC
RIDGING HAS SHIFTED S INTO S LA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SW WINDS
RETURNING ATOP THE SFC RIDGE...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MILDER TEMPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MORNING WATER VAPOR REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX
INTO NW AR...WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS THAT WILL SKIRT THE
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDENT
COLD FRONT OVER NW TX/CNTRL OK/SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...AND BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FARTHER S AS THE CIRRUS MAY SHIFT
FARTHER S. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES PER
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE WARMING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/N
LA/SCNTRL AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  61  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 071904
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 07/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST...EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD 08/18Z.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT OVERNIGHT AND SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE MORNING MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT...
NEARING THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY EVENING...NEAR
AN EL DORADO ARKANSAS...SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA...AND JACKSONVILLE
TEXAS LINE NEAR 08/06Z...AND TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY 08/12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 7-12 KNOTS OVER LOUISIANA AND
10-15 KNOTS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 13-18 KNOTS
AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30
KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER ALL OF THE REGION OBSERVED A HEAVY FROST AND SUBFREEZING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP QUITE NICELY AS OF
16-17Z...HAVING ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. SFC
RIDGING HAS SHIFTED S INTO S LA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SW WINDS
RETURNING ATOP THE SFC RIDGE...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MILDER TEMPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MORNING WATER VAPOR REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX
INTO NW AR...WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS THAT WILL SKIRT THE
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDENT
COLD FRONT OVER NW TX/CNTRL OK/SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...AND BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FARTHER S AS THE CIRRUS MAY SHIFT
FARTHER S. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES PER
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE WARMING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/N
LA/SCNTRL AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  61  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 071904
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 07/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST...EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD 08/18Z.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT OVERNIGHT AND SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE MORNING MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT...
NEARING THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY EVENING...NEAR
AN EL DORADO ARKANSAS...SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA...AND JACKSONVILLE
TEXAS LINE NEAR 08/06Z...AND TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY 08/12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 7-12 KNOTS OVER LOUISIANA AND
10-15 KNOTS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 13-18 KNOTS
AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30
KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER ALL OF THE REGION OBSERVED A HEAVY FROST AND SUBFREEZING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP QUITE NICELY AS OF
16-17Z...HAVING ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. SFC
RIDGING HAS SHIFTED S INTO S LA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SW WINDS
RETURNING ATOP THE SFC RIDGE...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MILDER TEMPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MORNING WATER VAPOR REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX
INTO NW AR...WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS THAT WILL SKIRT THE
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDENT
COLD FRONT OVER NW TX/CNTRL OK/SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...AND BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FARTHER S AS THE CIRRUS MAY SHIFT
FARTHER S. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES PER
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE WARMING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/N
LA/SCNTRL AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  61  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 071716
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1116 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ALL OF THE REGION OBSERVED A HEAVY FROST AND SUBFREEZING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP QUITE NICELY AS OF
16-17Z...HAVING ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. SFC
RIDGING HAS SHIFTED S INTO S LA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SW WINDS
RETURNING ATOP THE SFC RIDGE...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MILDER TEMPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MORNING WATER VAPOR REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX
INTO NW AR...WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS THAT WILL SKIRT THE
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDENT
COLD FRONT OVER NW TX/CNTRL OK/SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...AND BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FARTHER S AS THE CIRRUS MAY SHIFT
FARTHER S. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES PER
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE WARMING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/N
LA/SCNTRL AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  61  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 071716
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1116 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ALL OF THE REGION OBSERVED A HEAVY FROST AND SUBFREEZING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP QUITE NICELY AS OF
16-17Z...HAVING ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. SFC
RIDGING HAS SHIFTED S INTO S LA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SW WINDS
RETURNING ATOP THE SFC RIDGE...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MILDER TEMPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MORNING WATER VAPOR REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX
INTO NW AR...WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS THAT WILL SKIRT THE
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDENT
COLD FRONT OVER NW TX/CNTRL OK/SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...AND BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FARTHER S AS THE CIRRUS MAY SHIFT
FARTHER S. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES PER
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE WARMING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/N
LA/SCNTRL AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  61  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 071716
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1116 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ALL OF THE REGION OBSERVED A HEAVY FROST AND SUBFREEZING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP QUITE NICELY AS OF
16-17Z...HAVING ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. SFC
RIDGING HAS SHIFTED S INTO S LA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SW WINDS
RETURNING ATOP THE SFC RIDGE...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MILDER TEMPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MORNING WATER VAPOR REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX
INTO NW AR...WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS THAT WILL SKIRT THE
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDENT
COLD FRONT OVER NW TX/CNTRL OK/SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...AND BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FARTHER S AS THE CIRRUS MAY SHIFT
FARTHER S. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES PER
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE WARMING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/N
LA/SCNTRL AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  61  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 071119
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
519 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN LFK THROUGH
07/14Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 08/00Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KNOTS. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVG OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEP N-NW FLOW
INTO AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 100 KT PLUS WINDS IN THE UPPER
LVLS. STG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVG
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISSUANCE OF LWA FOR
MONDAY...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS AS STG WINDS COMBINE
WITH PLUMMETING RH VALUES. EXPECT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWERED TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH LITTLE CLOUDS OR WIND
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURG THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK AS THE DEEP NW FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE UPCOMING WKND WITH NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  60  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  61  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 071119
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
519 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN LFK THROUGH
07/14Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 08/00Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KNOTS. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVG OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEP N-NW FLOW
INTO AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 100 KT PLUS WINDS IN THE UPPER
LVLS. STG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVG
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISSUANCE OF LWA FOR
MONDAY...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS AS STG WINDS COMBINE
WITH PLUMMETING RH VALUES. EXPECT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWERED TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH LITTLE CLOUDS OR WIND
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURG THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK AS THE DEEP NW FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE UPCOMING WKND WITH NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  60  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  61  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 070843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVG OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEP N-NW FLOW
INTO AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 100 KT PLUS WINDS IN THE UPPER
LVLS. STG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVG
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL LIKELY RESUT IN ISSUANCE OF LWA FOR
MONDAY...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS AS STG WINDS COMBINE
WITH PLUMMETING RH VALUES. EXPECT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWERED TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH LITTLE CLOUDS OR WIND
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURG THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK AS THE DEEP NW FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE UPCOMING WKND WITH NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  60  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  61  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 070843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVG OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEP N-NW FLOW
INTO AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 100 KT PLUS WINDS IN THE UPPER
LVLS. STG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVG
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL LIKELY RESUT IN ISSUANCE OF LWA FOR
MONDAY...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS AS STG WINDS COMBINE
WITH PLUMMETING RH VALUES. EXPECT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWERED TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH LITTLE CLOUDS OR WIND
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURG THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK AS THE DEEP NW FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE UPCOMING WKND WITH NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  60  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  61  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 070843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVG OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEP N-NW FLOW
INTO AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 100 KT PLUS WINDS IN THE UPPER
LVLS. STG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVG
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL LIKELY RESUT IN ISSUANCE OF LWA FOR
MONDAY...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS AS STG WINDS COMBINE
WITH PLUMMETING RH VALUES. EXPECT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWERED TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH LITTLE CLOUDS OR WIND
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURG THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK AS THE DEEP NW FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE UPCOMING WKND WITH NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  31  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  60  37  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  61  36  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





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