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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231132 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED...AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS INCREASE FROM THE WNW TODAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME CIGS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER SCNTRL AR/N LA...AS WELL AS DEEP E TX. ENE WINDS 5-10KTS
TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUR TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW AVERAGE WITH STILL MANY HOLD OUTS IN
THE 60S...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WE EXPECT
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT ABOUT DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE SEEING SOME CIRRUS ON NW FLOW ALOFT FROM A
STORM COMPLEX IN THE MID AND HIGH PLAINS. OUR SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT
OR CALM AND DECOUPLED FROM DEEP ENE FLOW EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
25KFT. DUE TO A COUPLE OF FORMATTING DIFFERENCES WITH SKY
CONDITION BETWEEN THE ZONES AND REC PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENCY...WE
HAVE CORRECTED AND RESENT THE ZONES. SO...WHILE NOT RECORD
COOL WEATHER THIS IS A MUCH WELCOMED CHANGE WITH THE SEASON.

OVERALL...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS TYPICAL FALL DRY
PATTERN WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IN THE OFFING FOR MOST LOCALES
UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THEN GENERALLY ONLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS PERHAPS EVEN LESS LIKELY LOOKING AT THE NEW
GFS...BUT THE EURO IS STILL MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR EVEN AREA
WIDE QPF LATE SATURDAY IN SUNDAY AT HEIGHTS FALL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK PLAINS UPPER LOW CAUGHT UNDER THE BIG RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED INTO THIS PACKAGE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  57  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  82  55  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  49  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  53  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  80  52  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  84  57  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  85  55  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  85  57  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 231132 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED...AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS INCREASE FROM THE WNW TODAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME CIGS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER SCNTRL AR/N LA...AS WELL AS DEEP E TX. ENE WINDS 5-10KTS
TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUR TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW AVERAGE WITH STILL MANY HOLD OUTS IN
THE 60S...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WE EXPECT
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT ABOUT DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE SEEING SOME CIRRUS ON NW FLOW ALOFT FROM A
STORM COMPLEX IN THE MID AND HIGH PLAINS. OUR SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT
OR CALM AND DECOUPLED FROM DEEP ENE FLOW EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
25KFT. DUE TO A COUPLE OF FORMATTING DIFFERENCES WITH SKY
CONDITION BETWEEN THE ZONES AND REC PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENCY...WE
HAVE CORRECTED AND RESENT THE ZONES. SO...WHILE NOT RECORD
COOL WEATHER THIS IS A MUCH WELCOMED CHANGE WITH THE SEASON.

OVERALL...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS TYPICAL FALL DRY
PATTERN WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IN THE OFFING FOR MOST LOCALES
UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THEN GENERALLY ONLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS PERHAPS EVEN LESS LIKELY LOOKING AT THE NEW
GFS...BUT THE EURO IS STILL MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR EVEN AREA
WIDE QPF LATE SATURDAY IN SUNDAY AT HEIGHTS FALL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK PLAINS UPPER LOW CAUGHT UNDER THE BIG RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED INTO THIS PACKAGE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  57  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  82  55  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  49  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  53  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  80  52  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  84  57  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  85  55  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  85  57  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231006
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
506 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW AVERAGE WITH STILL MANY HOLD OUTS IN
THE 60S...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WE EXPECT
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT ABOUT DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE SEEING SOME CIRRUS ON NW FLOW ALOFT FROM A
STORM COMPLEX IN THE MID AND HIGH PLAINS. OUR SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT
OR CALM AND DECOUPLED FROM DEEP ENE FLOW EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
25KFT. DUE TO A COUPLE OF FORMATTING DIFFERENCES WITH SKY
CONDITION BETWEEN THE ZONES AND REC PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENCY...WE
HAVE CORRECTED AND RESENT THE ZONES. SO...WHILE NOT RECORD
COOL WEATHER THIS IS A MUCH WELCOMED CHANGE WITH THE SEASON.

OVERALL...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS TYPICAL FALL DRY
PATTERN WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IN THE OFFING FOR MOST LOCALES
UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THEN GENERALLY ONLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS PERHAPS EVEN LESS LIKELY LOOKING AT THE NEW
GFS...BUT THE EURO IS STILL MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR EVEN AREA
WIDE QPF LATE SATURDAY IN SUNDAY AT HEIGHTS FALL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK PLAINS UPPER LOW CAUGHT UNDER THE BIG RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED INTO THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  57  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  82  55  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  49  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  53  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  80  52  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  84  57  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  85  55  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  85  57  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231006
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
506 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW AVERAGE WITH STILL MANY HOLD OUTS IN
THE 60S...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WE EXPECT
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT ABOUT DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE SEEING SOME CIRRUS ON NW FLOW ALOFT FROM A
STORM COMPLEX IN THE MID AND HIGH PLAINS. OUR SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT
OR CALM AND DECOUPLED FROM DEEP ENE FLOW EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
25KFT. DUE TO A COUPLE OF FORMATTING DIFFERENCES WITH SKY
CONDITION BETWEEN THE ZONES AND REC PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENCY...WE
HAVE CORRECTED AND RESENT THE ZONES. SO...WHILE NOT RECORD
COOL WEATHER THIS IS A MUCH WELCOMED CHANGE WITH THE SEASON.

OVERALL...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS TYPICAL FALL DRY
PATTERN WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IN THE OFFING FOR MOST LOCALES
UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THEN GENERALLY ONLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS PERHAPS EVEN LESS LIKELY LOOKING AT THE NEW
GFS...BUT THE EURO IS STILL MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR EVEN AREA
WIDE QPF LATE SATURDAY IN SUNDAY AT HEIGHTS FALL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK PLAINS UPPER LOW CAUGHT UNDER THE BIG RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED INTO THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  57  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  82  55  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  49  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  53  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  80  52  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  84  57  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  85  55  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  85  57  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230409
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. CIRRUS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD...THIN TO START OUT WITH
CIRRUS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE OPAQUE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST.

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS WITH
WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A ENE TRAJECTORY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LIGHT
WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET INTO THE 50S FOR MOST SITES. GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO UPDATES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  86  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  80  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  79  48  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  80  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  81  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  85  59  88  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230409
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. CIRRUS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD...THIN TO START OUT WITH
CIRRUS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE OPAQUE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST.

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS WITH
WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A ENE TRAJECTORY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LIGHT
WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET INTO THE 50S FOR MOST SITES. GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO UPDATES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  86  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  80  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  79  48  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  80  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  81  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  85  59  88  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 230301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1001 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LIGHT
WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET INTO THE 50S FOR MOST SITES. GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO UPDATES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TIGHT GRADIENT CURRENTLY WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...NEAR OR BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AND
VEERING AROUND TO MORE OF A ENE TRAJECTORY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 5H RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NE TX ATTM. THIS
RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SE TX BY 12Z TUE AND WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NW...CIRRUS WILL BEGIN HEADING THIS WAY
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTRODUCED SCT250 LATE
TONIGHT WITH BKN250 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL S OF THE CWA AND A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH
HAS QUICKLY BUILT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.

WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AXIS
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE N OF THE REGION WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE
WEAKENING WHILE A VERY STRONG AND AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP NELY FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEP THE CWA
CUT OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE. THUS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST.

THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN THIS FCST PACKAGE APPEAR TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL MEANDER SWWD IN TO THE SRN PLAINS UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS LA TOWARDS TN DURING THE WEEKEND SHOULD HELP TO
INITIATE SCT CONVECTION. FORMATION OF A SECOND WAVE OVER E TX ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST AND END RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  86  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  80  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  79  48  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  80  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  81  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  85  59  88  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 230301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1001 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LIGHT
WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET INTO THE 50S FOR MOST SITES. GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO UPDATES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TIGHT GRADIENT CURRENTLY WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...NEAR OR BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AND
VEERING AROUND TO MORE OF A ENE TRAJECTORY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 5H RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NE TX ATTM. THIS
RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SE TX BY 12Z TUE AND WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NW...CIRRUS WILL BEGIN HEADING THIS WAY
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTRODUCED SCT250 LATE
TONIGHT WITH BKN250 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL S OF THE CWA AND A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH
HAS QUICKLY BUILT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.

WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AXIS
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE N OF THE REGION WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE
WEAKENING WHILE A VERY STRONG AND AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP NELY FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEP THE CWA
CUT OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE. THUS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST.

THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN THIS FCST PACKAGE APPEAR TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL MEANDER SWWD IN TO THE SRN PLAINS UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS LA TOWARDS TN DURING THE WEEKEND SHOULD HELP TO
INITIATE SCT CONVECTION. FORMATION OF A SECOND WAVE OVER E TX ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST AND END RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  86  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  80  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  79  48  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  80  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  81  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  85  59  88  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 222228
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
528 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TIGHT GRADIENT CURRENTLY WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...NEAR OR BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AND
VEERING AROUND TO MORE OF A ENE TRAJECTORY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 5H RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NE TX ATTM. THIS
RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SE TX BY 12Z TUE AND WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NW...CIRRUS WILL BEGIN HEADING THIS WAY
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTRODUCED SCT250 LATE
TONIGHT WITH BKN250 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL S OF THE CWA AND A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH
HAS QUICKLY BUILT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.

WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AXIS
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE N OF THE REGION WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE
WEAKENING WHILE A VERY STRONG AND AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP NELY FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEP THE CWA
CUT OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE. THUS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST.

THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN THIS FCST PACKAGE APPEAR TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL MEANDER SWWD IN TO THE SRN PLAINS UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS LA TOWARDS TN DURING THE WEEKEND SHOULD HELP TO
INITIATE SCT CONVECTION. FORMATION OF A SECOND WAVE OVER E TX ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST AND END RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  86  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  80  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  79  48  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  80  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  81  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  85  59  88  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 222228
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
528 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TIGHT GRADIENT CURRENTLY WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...NEAR OR BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AND
VEERING AROUND TO MORE OF A ENE TRAJECTORY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 5H RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NE TX ATTM. THIS
RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SE TX BY 12Z TUE AND WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NW...CIRRUS WILL BEGIN HEADING THIS WAY
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTRODUCED SCT250 LATE
TONIGHT WITH BKN250 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL S OF THE CWA AND A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH
HAS QUICKLY BUILT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.

WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AXIS
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE N OF THE REGION WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE
WEAKENING WHILE A VERY STRONG AND AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP NELY FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEP THE CWA
CUT OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE. THUS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST.

THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN THIS FCST PACKAGE APPEAR TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL MEANDER SWWD IN TO THE SRN PLAINS UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS LA TOWARDS TN DURING THE WEEKEND SHOULD HELP TO
INITIATE SCT CONVECTION. FORMATION OF A SECOND WAVE OVER E TX ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST AND END RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  86  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  80  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  79  48  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  80  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  81  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  85  59  88  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 222105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL S OF THE CWA AND A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH
HAS QUICKLY BUILT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.

WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AXIS
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE N OF THE REGION WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE
WEAKENING WHILE A VERY STRONG AND AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP NELY FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEP THE CWA
CUT OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE. THUS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST.

THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN THIS FCST PACKAGE APPEAR TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL MEANDER SWWD IN TO THE SRN PLAINS UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS LA TOWARDS TN DURING THE WEEKEND SHOULD HELP TO
INITIATE SCT CONVECTION. FORMATION OF A SECOND WAVE OVER E TX ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST AND END RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINALS ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE. DECREASING
CLOUDS AROUND 45 HND FEET TO ERODE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. HIGH CIRRUS AROUND
25-30 KFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 07-13 KNOTS THROUGH 22/23Z DROPPING OFF
TO LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AND MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 23/14Z TUESDAY.
/06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  86  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  80  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  79  48  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  80  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  81  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  85  59  88  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221819
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
119 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINALS ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE. DECREASING
CLOUDS AROUND 45 HND FEET TO ERODE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. HIGH CIRRUS AROUND
25-30 KFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 07-13 KNOTS THROUGH 22/23Z DROPPING OFF
TO LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AND MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 23/14Z TUESDAY.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW S OF I-20 AND INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
POSITION OF FRONT CAN GENERALLY BE DETERMINED BY A BAND OF
STRATOCU ARCING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...TO NEAR KTYR...TO COLUMBIA
AND JENA LA...AND EWD INTO MS/AL. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE DRY AIR
HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE FRONT AND IS NOT REALLY LAGGING FAR BEHIND.
THUS...FEEL CHANCES FOR ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TODAY WILL BE VERY LOW
EVEN ACROSS OUR FARTHER SRN ZONES AND THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM THE REMAINDER OF TODAY/S FCST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 22/12Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX AND N LA
WILL CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR SW THIS MORNING...EXITING THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 3.5K-KFT WILL BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH 10-12KFT CIGS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS E TX/N LA THROUGH MIDDAY.
SKC IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS...WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE OVER E
TX LATE. NNE WINDS AROUND 10KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHWRS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING
SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEING FURTHER REINFORCED
BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER OUR NRN TIER...WHILE STILL NEAR 70
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS DRY AIR PUSH WILL
HELP TO CHOKE OFF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START TO THE FALL
SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE SEPTEMEBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL SPELL ANOTHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  59  84  58  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  55  82  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  81  54  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  82  56  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  53  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  86  59  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  86  57  83  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  90  59  86  58  89 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221819
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
119 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINALS ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE. DECREASING
CLOUDS AROUND 45 HND FEET TO ERODE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. HIGH CIRRUS AROUND
25-30 KFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 07-13 KNOTS THROUGH 22/23Z DROPPING OFF
TO LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AND MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 23/14Z TUESDAY.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW S OF I-20 AND INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
POSITION OF FRONT CAN GENERALLY BE DETERMINED BY A BAND OF
STRATOCU ARCING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...TO NEAR KTYR...TO COLUMBIA
AND JENA LA...AND EWD INTO MS/AL. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE DRY AIR
HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE FRONT AND IS NOT REALLY LAGGING FAR BEHIND.
THUS...FEEL CHANCES FOR ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TODAY WILL BE VERY LOW
EVEN ACROSS OUR FARTHER SRN ZONES AND THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM THE REMAINDER OF TODAY/S FCST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 22/12Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX AND N LA
WILL CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR SW THIS MORNING...EXITING THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 3.5K-KFT WILL BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH 10-12KFT CIGS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS E TX/N LA THROUGH MIDDAY.
SKC IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS...WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE OVER E
TX LATE. NNE WINDS AROUND 10KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHWRS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING
SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEING FURTHER REINFORCED
BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER OUR NRN TIER...WHILE STILL NEAR 70
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS DRY AIR PUSH WILL
HELP TO CHOKE OFF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START TO THE FALL
SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE SEPTEMEBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL SPELL ANOTHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  59  84  58  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  55  82  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  81  54  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  82  56  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  53  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  86  59  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  86  57  83  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  90  59  86  58  89 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221540
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW S OF I-20 AND INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
POSITION OF FRONT CAN GENERALLY BE DETERMINED BY A BAND OF
STRATOCU ARCING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...TO NEAR KTYR...TO COLUMBIA
AND JENA LA...AND EWD INTO MS/AL. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE DRY AIR
HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE FRONT AND IS NOT REALLY LAGGING FAR BEHIND.
THUS...FEEL CHANCES FOR ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TODAY WILL BE VERY LOW
EVEN ACROSS OUR FARTHER SRN ZONES AND THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM THE REMAINDER OF TODAY/S FCST.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 22/12Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX AND N LA
WILL CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR SW THIS MORNING...EXITING THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 3.5K-KFT WILL BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH 10-12KFT CIGS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS E TX/N LA THROUGH MIDDAY.
SKC IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS...WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE OVER E
TX LATE. NNE WINDS AROUND 10KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHWRS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING
SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEING FURTHER REINFORCED
BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER OUR NRN TIER...WHILE STILL NEAR 70
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS DRY AIR PUSH WILL
HELP TO CHOKE OFF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START TO THE FALL
SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE SEPTEMEBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL SPELL ANOTHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  59  84  58  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  55  82  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  81  54  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  82  56  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  53  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  86  59  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  86  57  83  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  90  59  86  58  89 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221146 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 22/12Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX AND N LA
WILL CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR SW THIS MORNING...EXITING THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 3.5K-KFT WILL BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH 10-12KFT CIGS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS E TX/N LA THROUGH MIDDAY.
SKC IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS...WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE OVER E
TX LATE. NNE WINDS AROUND 10KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHWRS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING
SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEING FURTHER REINFORCED
BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER OUR NRN TIER...WHILE STILL NEAR 70
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS DRY AIR PUSH WILL
HELP TO CHOKE OFF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START TO THE FALL
SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE SEPTEMEBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL SPELL ANOTHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  59  84  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  55  82  57  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
DEQ  81  54  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  82  56  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  53  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  86  59  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  86  57  83  56  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  90  59  86  58  89 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221146 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 22/12Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX AND N LA
WILL CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR SW THIS MORNING...EXITING THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 3.5K-KFT WILL BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH 10-12KFT CIGS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS E TX/N LA THROUGH MIDDAY.
SKC IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS...WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE OVER E
TX LATE. NNE WINDS AROUND 10KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHWRS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING
SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEING FURTHER REINFORCED
BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER OUR NRN TIER...WHILE STILL NEAR 70
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS DRY AIR PUSH WILL
HELP TO CHOKE OFF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START TO THE FALL
SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE SEPTEMEBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL SPELL ANOTHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  59  84  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  55  82  57  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
DEQ  81  54  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  82  56  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  53  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  86  59  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  86  57  83  56  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  90  59  86  58  89 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 220900
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHWRS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING
SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEING FURTHER REINFORCED
BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER OUR NRN TIER...WHILE STILL NEAR 70
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS DRY AIR PUSH WILL
HELP TO CHOKE OFF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START TO THE FALL
SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE SEPTEMEBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL SPELL ANOTHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  59  84  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  55  82  57  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
DEQ  81  54  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  82  56  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  53  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  86  59  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  86  57  83  56  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  90  59  86  58  89 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220900
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHWRS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING
SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEING FURTHER REINFORCED
BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER OUR NRN TIER...WHILE STILL NEAR 70
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS DRY AIR PUSH WILL
HELP TO CHOKE OFF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START TO THE FALL
SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE SEPTEMEBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL SPELL ANOTHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  59  84  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  55  82  57  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
DEQ  81  54  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  82  56  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  53  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  86  59  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  86  57  83  56  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  90  59  86  58  89 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 220446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING A FEW SCT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS. HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PD...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NELY AT 8-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS
SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA...BUT
THESE SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

CURRENT TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANGES OR UPDATES PLANNED. /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING A FEW SCT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS. HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PD...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NELY AT 8-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS
SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA...BUT
THESE SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

CURRENT TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANGES OR UPDATES PLANNED. /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 220158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
858 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS SUNDAY
EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ACROSS DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA...BUT THESE SHOULD
END BY MIDNIGHT.

CURRENT TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANGES OR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08/08






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
858 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS SUNDAY
EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ACROSS DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA...BUT THESE SHOULD
END BY MIDNIGHT.

CURRENT TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CHANGES OR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08/08







000
FXUS64 KSHV 220037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SCT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO
SPARSE COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
00Z TAF PD...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NELY AT 8-12 KTS
AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE VERY NRN FRINGES OF
THE CWA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD BEFORE
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR DEEP E TX COUNTIES/CNTRL LA PARISHES AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MORE ISOLD
SHWRS HAVE ACROSS THE SERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVER SE LA.

MAINTENANCE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SSEWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GIVES THE COOL AND DRY POST- FRONTAL
AIRMASS A STRONG PUSH. THE MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUR THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SHWRS/TSTMS
DISSIPATING AS THE FRONT NEARS I-20 AROUND SUNRISE. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
MORNING.

STRONG SFC HIGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA LARGELY PRECIP
FREE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF THE AREA LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S. /09/

AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 22/18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MIST/BR
NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS TO 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SCT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO
SPARSE COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
00Z TAF PD...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NELY AT 8-12 KTS
AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE VERY NRN FRINGES OF
THE CWA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD BEFORE
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR DEEP E TX COUNTIES/CNTRL LA PARISHES AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MORE ISOLD
SHWRS HAVE ACROSS THE SERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVER SE LA.

MAINTENANCE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SSEWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GIVES THE COOL AND DRY POST- FRONTAL
AIRMASS A STRONG PUSH. THE MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUR THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SHWRS/TSTMS
DISSIPATING AS THE FRONT NEARS I-20 AROUND SUNRISE. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
MORNING.

STRONG SFC HIGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA LARGELY PRECIP
FREE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF THE AREA LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S. /09/

AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 22/18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MIST/BR
NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS TO 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSHV 212105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE VERY NRN FRINGES OF
THE CWA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD BEFORE
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR DEEP E TX COUNTIES/CNTRL LA PARISHES AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MORE ISOLD
SHWRS HAVE ACROSS THE SERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVER SE LA.

MAINTENANCE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SSEWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GIVES THE COOL AND DRY POST- FRONTAL
AIRMASS A STRONG PUSH. THE MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUR THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SHWRS/TSTMS
DISSIPATING AS THE FRONT NEARS I-20 AROUND SUNRISE. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
MORNING.

STRONG SFC HIGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA LARGELY PRECIP
FREE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF THE AREA LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 22/18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MIST/BR
NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS TO 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 212105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE VERY NRN FRINGES OF
THE CWA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD BEFORE
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR DEEP E TX COUNTIES/CNTRL LA PARISHES AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE MORE ISOLD
SHWRS HAVE ACROSS THE SERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVER SE LA.

MAINTENANCE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SSEWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GIVES THE COOL AND DRY POST- FRONTAL
AIRMASS A STRONG PUSH. THE MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUR THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SHWRS/TSTMS
DISSIPATING AS THE FRONT NEARS I-20 AROUND SUNRISE. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
MORNING.

STRONG SFC HIGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA LARGELY PRECIP
FREE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF THE AREA LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 22/18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MIST/BR
NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS TO 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  58  83  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
MLU  63  85  55  81  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  81  56  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  80  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  85  58  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  85  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  90  60  85  60 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 211836
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
136 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 22/18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MIST/BR
NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS TO 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WAS CLOSE TO I-40 IN OK/AR AS OF 21/15Z. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND DO EXPECTED SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
LATEST NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN CHANCES BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
SKY/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. /09/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO...GETS PUSHED SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH INTO OHIO VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S THIS AFTN WHEN
CALCULATING A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAINING TO THE EAST...AND WITH LACK OF GULF FLOW...EXPECT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURG THE NOCTURNAL TIME FRAME
OF FROPA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION OVER SW AR AND
POSSIBLY SE OK TODAY ACCORDING TO NAM. GFS KEEPS MID LVLS TOO DRY
WITH FRONT. DESPITE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE N/NW UPPER LVL
FLOW. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS...THUS MAKING THE DISTINCTION BTWN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RATHER UNCLEAR FOR THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...
REMAINDER OF ATMOSPHERE WELL TO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN WAY OF
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. TOWARDS END OF WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE NWD ALONG LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SO INTRODUCING ISOLD
POPS FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  66  87  61  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
MLU  94  63  83  58  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
DEQ  89  59  82  56  79 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  90  61  83  57  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  91  61  82  56  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  67  87  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  67  88  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
LFK  93  67  90  64  86 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 211836
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
136 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 22/18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MIST/BR
NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS TO 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WAS CLOSE TO I-40 IN OK/AR AS OF 21/15Z. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND DO EXPECTED SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
LATEST NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN CHANCES BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
SKY/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. /09/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO...GETS PUSHED SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH INTO OHIO VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S THIS AFTN WHEN
CALCULATING A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAINING TO THE EAST...AND WITH LACK OF GULF FLOW...EXPECT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURG THE NOCTURNAL TIME FRAME
OF FROPA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION OVER SW AR AND
POSSIBLY SE OK TODAY ACCORDING TO NAM. GFS KEEPS MID LVLS TOO DRY
WITH FRONT. DESPITE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE N/NW UPPER LVL
FLOW. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS...THUS MAKING THE DISTINCTION BTWN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RATHER UNCLEAR FOR THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...
REMAINDER OF ATMOSPHERE WELL TO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN WAY OF
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. TOWARDS END OF WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE NWD ALONG LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SO INTRODUCING ISOLD
POPS FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  66  87  61  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
MLU  94  63  83  58  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
DEQ  89  59  82  56  79 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  90  61  83  57  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  91  61  82  56  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  67  87  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  67  88  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
LFK  93  67  90  64  86 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211533
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1033 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WAS CLOSE TO I-40 IN OK/AR AS OF 21/15Z. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND DO EXPECTED SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
LATEST NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN CHANCES BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
SKY/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 21/12Z TAF PERIOD. SKC
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT CU FIELD AND INCREASING CIRRUS
FROM THE NW AROUND MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR A
GAG...TO PNC...TO JLN TO N OF A SGF LINE AS OF 11Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MIXING S
INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCT CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT S ACROSS OK/AR WITH THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SE OK/SW AR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS FOR THE
AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE MENTION PER RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COULD SEE A BKN CU/AC FIELD DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT FROM N TO S OVER SE OK/EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA AROUND 06Z...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
THUS...ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT. LT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME NNW AROUND 5KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS S OF
THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...NNE WINDS 5-10KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA OVERNIGHT. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO...GETS PUSHED SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH INTO OHIO VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S THIS AFTN WHEN
CALCULATING A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAINING TO THE EAST...AND WITH LACK OF GULF FLOW...EXPECT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURG THE NOCTURNAL TIME FRAME
OF FROPA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION OVER SW AR AND
POSSIBLY SE OK TODAY ACCORDING TO NAM. GFS KEEPS MID LVLS TOO DRY
WITH FRONT. DESPITE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE N/NW UPPER LVL
FLOW. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS...THUS MAKING THE DISTINCTION BTWN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RATHER UNCLEAR FOR THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...
REMAINDER OF ATMOSPHERE WELL TO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN WAY OF
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. TOWARDS END OF WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE NWD ALONG LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SO INTRODUCING ISOLD
POPS FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  66  87  61  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
MLU  94  63  83  58  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
DEQ  89  59  82  56  79 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  90  61  83  57  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  91  61  82  56  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  67  87  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  67  88  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
LFK  93  67  90  64  86 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211152 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 21/12Z TAF PERIOD. SKC
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT CU FIELD AND INCREASING CIRRUS
FROM THE NW AROUND MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR A
GAG...TO PNC...TO JLN TO N OF A SGF LINE AS OF 11Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MIXING S
INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCT CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT S ACROSS OK/AR WITH THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SE OK/SW AR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS FOR THE
AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE MENTION PER RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COULD SEE A BKN CU/AC FIELD DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT FROM N TO S OVER SE OK/EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA AROUND 06Z...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
THUS...ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT. LT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME NNW AROUND 5KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS S OF
THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...NNE WINDS 5-10KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO...GETS PUSHED SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH INTO OHIO VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S THIS AFTN WHEN
CALCULATING A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAINING TO THE EAST...AND WITH LACK OF GULF FLOW...EXPECT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURG THE NOCTURNAL TIME FRAME
OF FROPA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION OVER SW AR AND
POSSIBLY SE OK TODAY ACCORDING TO NAM. GFS KEEPS MID LVLS TOO DRY
WITH FRONT. DESPITE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE N/NW UPPER LVL
FLOW. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS...THUS MAKING THE DISTINCTION BTWN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RATHER UNCLEAR FOR THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...
REMAINDER OF ATMOSPHERE WELL TO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN WAY OF
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. TOWARDS END OF WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE NWD ALONG LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SO INTRODUCING ISOLD
POPS FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  66  87  61  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
MLU  94  63  83  58  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
DEQ  89  59  82  56  79 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  90  61  83  57  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  91  61  82  56  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  67  87  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  67  88  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
LFK  93  67  90  64  86 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 211152 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 21/12Z TAF PERIOD. SKC
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT CU FIELD AND INCREASING CIRRUS
FROM THE NW AROUND MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR A
GAG...TO PNC...TO JLN TO N OF A SGF LINE AS OF 11Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MIXING S
INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCT CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT S ACROSS OK/AR WITH THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SE OK/SW AR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS FOR THE
AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE MENTION PER RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COULD SEE A BKN CU/AC FIELD DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT FROM N TO S OVER SE OK/EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA AROUND 06Z...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
THUS...ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT. LT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME NNW AROUND 5KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS S OF
THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...NNE WINDS 5-10KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO...GETS PUSHED SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH INTO OHIO VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S THIS AFTN WHEN
CALCULATING A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAINING TO THE EAST...AND WITH LACK OF GULF FLOW...EXPECT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURG THE NOCTURNAL TIME FRAME
OF FROPA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION OVER SW AR AND
POSSIBLY SE OK TODAY ACCORDING TO NAM. GFS KEEPS MID LVLS TOO DRY
WITH FRONT. DESPITE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE N/NW UPPER LVL
FLOW. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS...THUS MAKING THE DISTINCTION BTWN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RATHER UNCLEAR FOR THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...
REMAINDER OF ATMOSPHERE WELL TO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN WAY OF
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. TOWARDS END OF WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE NWD ALONG LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SO INTRODUCING ISOLD
POPS FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  66  87  61  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
MLU  94  63  83  58  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
DEQ  89  59  82  56  79 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  90  61  83  57  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  91  61  82  56  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  67  87  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  67  88  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
LFK  93  67  90  64  86 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210820
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
320 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO...GETS PUSHED SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH INTO OHIO VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S THIS AFTN WHEN
CALCULATING A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAINING TO THE EAST...AND WITH LACK OF GULF FLOW...EXPECT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURG THE NOCTURNAL TIME FRAME
OF FROPA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION OVER SW AR AND
POSSIBLY SE OK TODAY ACCORDING TO NAM. GFS KEEPS MID LVLS TOO DRY
WITH FRONT. DESPITE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE N/NW UPPER LVL
FLOW. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS...THUS MAKING THE DISTINCTION BTWN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RATHER UNCLEAR FOR THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...
REMAINDER OF ATMOSPHERE WELL TO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN WAY OF
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
TOWARDS END OF WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD ALONG
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SO INTRODUCING ISOLD POPS FOR MAINLY LA
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  66  87  61  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
MLU  94  63  83  58  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
DEQ  89  59  82  56  79 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  90  61  83  57  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  91  61  82  56  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  67  87  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  67  88  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
LFK  93  67  90  64  86 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 210317
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1017 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
PD...WITH SOME TEMPO BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VRBL NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
BECOME NLY AFTER SUNRISE AT AROUND 5 KTS. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  69  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   0
MLU  68  93  66  87  60 /  10  10  20  10   0
DEQ  67  90  63  83  58 /  10  20  20   0   0
TXK  68  91  65  84  59 /   0  20  20   0   0
ELD  67  92  64  84  58 /   0  20  20   0   0
TYR  70  92  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
GGG  68  92  69  89  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
LFK  68  92  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210317
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1017 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
PD...WITH SOME TEMPO BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VRBL NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
BECOME NLY AFTER SUNRISE AT AROUND 5 KTS. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  69  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   0
MLU  68  93  66  87  60 /  10  10  20  10   0
DEQ  67  90  63  83  58 /  10  20  20   0   0
TXK  68  91  65  84  59 /   0  20  20   0   0
ELD  67  92  64  84  58 /   0  20  20   0   0
TYR  70  92  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
GGG  68  92  69  89  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
LFK  68  92  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210200
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
900 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION HAS ENDED OVER NE LA AND SE AR THIS SATURDAY EVENING.
CURRENT TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES OR
CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  69  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   0
MLU  68  93  66  87  60 /  10  10  20  10   0
DEQ  67  90  63  83  58 /  10  20  20   0   0
TXK  68  91  65  84  59 /   0  20  20   0   0
ELD  67  92  64  84  58 /   0  20  20   0   0
TYR  70  92  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
GGG  68  92  69  89  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
LFK  68  92  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08/08







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210200
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
900 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION HAS ENDED OVER NE LA AND SE AR THIS SATURDAY EVENING.
CURRENT TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES OR
CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  69  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   0
MLU  68  93  66  87  60 /  10  10  20  10   0
DEQ  67  90  63  83  58 /  10  20  20   0   0
TXK  68  91  65  84  59 /   0  20  20   0   0
ELD  67  92  64  84  58 /   0  20  20   0   0
TYR  70  92  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
GGG  68  92  69  89  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
LFK  68  92  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08/08






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW VERY ISOLD SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...LEAVING THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT A FEW SITES AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NWLY WINDS
AT AROUND 5 KTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED FROM MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST INTO EAST TEXAS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND
ON THE SURFACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA HAS KEPT THE AREA FREE OF
CONVECTION OTHER THAN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AND
WILL OMIT ENTRY TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. UNDER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST HAS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A
PREVIOUS HURRICANE AND LOOKS AS IF THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT REACH
OUR REGION BUT PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO. A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AND PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WITH RAIN AND CONVECTION. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD
AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE GULF COAST AND REPLACED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE ONE
MORE DAY OF 90 PLUS TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A COOL DOWN
OCCURS. FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND
COOL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  69  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   0
MLU  68  93  66  87  60 /  10  10  20  10   0
DEQ  67  90  63  83  58 /  10  20  20   0   0
TXK  68  91  65  84  59 /   0  20  20   0   0
ELD  67  92  64  84  58 /   0  20  20   0   0
TYR  70  92  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
GGG  68  92  69  89  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
LFK  68  92  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW VERY ISOLD SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...LEAVING THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT A FEW SITES AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NWLY WINDS
AT AROUND 5 KTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED FROM MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST INTO EAST TEXAS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND
ON THE SURFACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA HAS KEPT THE AREA FREE OF
CONVECTION OTHER THAN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AND
WILL OMIT ENTRY TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. UNDER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST HAS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A
PREVIOUS HURRICANE AND LOOKS AS IF THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT REACH
OUR REGION BUT PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO. A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AND PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WITH RAIN AND CONVECTION. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD
AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE GULF COAST AND REPLACED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE ONE
MORE DAY OF 90 PLUS TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A COOL DOWN
OCCURS. FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND
COOL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  69  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   0
MLU  68  93  66  87  60 /  10  10  20  10   0
DEQ  67  90  63  83  58 /  10  20  20   0   0
TXK  68  91  65  84  59 /   0  20  20   0   0
ELD  67  92  64  84  58 /   0  20  20   0   0
TYR  70  92  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
GGG  68  92  69  89  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
LFK  68  92  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 202112
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED FROM MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST INTO EAST TEXAS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND
ON THE SURFACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA HAS KEPT THE AREA FREE OF
CONVECTION OTHER THAN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AND
WILL OMIT ENTRY TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. UNDER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST HAS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A
PREVIOUS HURRICANE AND LOOKS AS IF THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT REACH
OUR REGION BUT PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO. A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AND PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WITH RAIN AND CONVECTION. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD
AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE GULF COAST AND REPLACED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE ONE
MORE DAY OF 90 PLUS TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A COOL DOWN
OCCURS. FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND
COOL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  69  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   0
MLU  68  93  66  87  60 /  10  10  20  10   0
DEQ  67  90  63  83  58 /  10  20  20   0   0
TXK  68  91  65  84  59 /   0  20  20   0   0
ELD  67  92  64  84  58 /   0  20  20   0   0
TYR  70  92  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
GGG  68  92  69  89  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
LFK  68  92  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT MOST
OF THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING
PRECIP AT ANY TAF SITES BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHWRS
MAINLY N OF I-30 SUNDAY MORNING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING OF FOG.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SW FLANK OF THE SFC RIDGING FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH THE PARENT RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY E
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER
OF THE WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD/INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...AS
READINGS TOP OUT NEAR 90/INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ESE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY IN ITS WAKE AS IT ENTERS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WHICH WILL HELP REINFORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT S INTO NRN OK/AR
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MIX S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD RESULT IN
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/SRN AR/NRN
LA...RESULTING IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS THAN WHAT SHOULD BE SEEN TODAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED NEAR
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY OVER SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE S
INTO PORTIONS OF NE TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
BUILDING S SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO NEAR/JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO COOL WITH THE FROPA GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT COOLER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BACKDOOR SW INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS S FROM THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA
BY AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING S INTO THE REGION. THE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD EXPAND E FOLLOWING THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE/S DEPARTURE LATE MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT BY MID/LATE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES...WITH THE TROUGH POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN VC OF NE. RH/S SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MODIFY OVER OUR REGION BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. THE GFS DOES TRY TO LIFT A WEAK SHORTWAVE NE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE BROAD
STATIONARY TROUGHING FARTHER W. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/SRN AND ERN SECTIONS
OF NCNTRL LA. HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE AREAS WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
MLU  92  68  93  66  87 /   0   0  10  20  10
DEQ  89  67  90  63  83 /  10  10  20  20   0
TXK  89  68  91  65  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
ELD  91  67  92  64  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
TYR  91  70  92  69  88 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  91  68  92  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
LFK  92  68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 201746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT MOST
OF THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING
PRECIP AT ANY TAF SITES BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHWRS
MAINLY N OF I-30 SUNDAY MORNING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING OF FOG.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SW FLANK OF THE SFC RIDGING FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH THE PARENT RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY E
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER
OF THE WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD/INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...AS
READINGS TOP OUT NEAR 90/INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ESE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY IN ITS WAKE AS IT ENTERS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WHICH WILL HELP REINFORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT S INTO NRN OK/AR
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MIX S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD RESULT IN
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/SRN AR/NRN
LA...RESULTING IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS THAN WHAT SHOULD BE SEEN TODAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED NEAR
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY OVER SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE S
INTO PORTIONS OF NE TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
BUILDING S SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO NEAR/JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO COOL WITH THE FROPA GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT COOLER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BACKDOOR SW INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS S FROM THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA
BY AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING S INTO THE REGION. THE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD EXPAND E FOLLOWING THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE/S DEPARTURE LATE MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT BY MID/LATE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES...WITH THE TROUGH POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN VC OF NE. RH/S SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MODIFY OVER OUR REGION BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. THE GFS DOES TRY TO LIFT A WEAK SHORTWAVE NE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE BROAD
STATIONARY TROUGHING FARTHER W. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/SRN AND ERN SECTIONS
OF NCNTRL LA. HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE AREAS WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
MLU  92  68  93  66  87 /   0   0  10  20  10
DEQ  89  67  90  63  83 /  10  10  20  20   0
TXK  89  68  91  65  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
ELD  91  67  92  64  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
TYR  91  70  92  69  88 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  91  68  92  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
LFK  92  68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201607
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING OF FOG.
OTHERWISE NO SIFNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGING MOVG OVHD WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF
PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CUMULUS COVERAGE DURG
AFTN. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE SKC AREAWIDE...WITH ONLY TRANSIENT
PATCHY FOG AT MAINLY KELD AND KMLU TERMINALS. EXCEPTION OF
KTXK...WHERE DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS IN IFR CAT FOR MOST OF NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 20/13-14Z THIS AM. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR
AFTER 21/09Z ACROSS THE CWA
..WITH CONTINUED SKC AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SW FLANK OF THE SFC RIDGING FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH THE PARENT RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY E
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER
OF THE WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD/INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...AS
READINGS TOP OUT NEAR 90/INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ESE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY IN ITS WAKE AS IT ENTERS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WHICH WILL HELP REINFORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT S INTO NRN OK/AR
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MIX S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD RESULT IN
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/SRN AR/NRN
LA...RESULTING IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS THAN WHAT SHOULD BE SEEN TODAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED NEAR
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY OVER SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE S
INTO PORTIONS OF NE TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
BUILDING S SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO NEAR/JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO COOL WITH THE FROPA GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT COOLER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BACKDOOR SW INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS S FROM THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA
BY AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING S INTO THE REGION. THE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD EXPAND E FOLLOWING THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE/S DEPARTURE LATE MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT BY MID/LATE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES...WITH THE TROUGH POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN VC OF NE. RH/S SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MODIFY OVER OUR REGION BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. THE GFS DOES TRY TO LIFT A WEAK SHORTWAVE NE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE BROAD
STATIONARY TROUGHING FARTHER W. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/SRN AND ERN SECTIONS
OF NCNTRL LA. HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE AREAS WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
MLU  92  68  93  66  87 /   0   0  10  20  10
DEQ  89  67  90  63  83 /  10  10  20  20   0
TXK  89  68  91  65  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
ELD  91  67  92  64  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
TYR  91  70  92  69  88 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  91  68  92  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
LFK  92  68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201607
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING OF FOG.
OTHERWISE NO SIFNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGING MOVG OVHD WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF
PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CUMULUS COVERAGE DURG
AFTN. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE SKC AREAWIDE...WITH ONLY TRANSIENT
PATCHY FOG AT MAINLY KELD AND KMLU TERMINALS. EXCEPTION OF
KTXK...WHERE DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS IN IFR CAT FOR MOST OF NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 20/13-14Z THIS AM. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR
AFTER 21/09Z ACROSS THE CWA
..WITH CONTINUED SKC AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SW FLANK OF THE SFC RIDGING FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH THE PARENT RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY E
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER
OF THE WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD/INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...AS
READINGS TOP OUT NEAR 90/INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ESE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY IN ITS WAKE AS IT ENTERS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WHICH WILL HELP REINFORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT S INTO NRN OK/AR
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MIX S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD RESULT IN
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/SRN AR/NRN
LA...RESULTING IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS THAN WHAT SHOULD BE SEEN TODAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED NEAR
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY OVER SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE S
INTO PORTIONS OF NE TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
BUILDING S SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO NEAR/JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO COOL WITH THE FROPA GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT COOLER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BACKDOOR SW INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS S FROM THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA
BY AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING S INTO THE REGION. THE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD EXPAND E FOLLOWING THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE/S DEPARTURE LATE MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT BY MID/LATE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES...WITH THE TROUGH POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN VC OF NE. RH/S SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MODIFY OVER OUR REGION BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. THE GFS DOES TRY TO LIFT A WEAK SHORTWAVE NE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE BROAD
STATIONARY TROUGHING FARTHER W. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/SRN AND ERN SECTIONS
OF NCNTRL LA. HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE AREAS WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AS THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
MLU  92  68  93  66  87 /   0   0  10  20  10
DEQ  89  67  90  63  83 /  10  10  20  20   0
TXK  89  68  91  65  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
ELD  91  67  92  64  84 /   0   0  20  20   0
TYR  91  70  92  69  88 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  91  68  92  69  89 /   0   0  10  20  10
LFK  92  68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







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