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000
FXUS64 KSHV 020444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AVIATION...
FAIR SKIES FOR HOURS YET WITH LIGHT SE WINDS ON THE SURFACE.
ALOFT...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK 09-12Z
WITH VFR BY MID MORNING...15-16Z. THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE TSTMS WILL SPREAD INTO I-20 CORRIDOR 19-23Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10 WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 020444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AVIATION...
FAIR SKIES FOR HOURS YET WITH LIGHT SE WINDS ON THE SURFACE.
ALOFT...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK 09-12Z
WITH VFR BY MID MORNING...15-16Z. THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE TSTMS WILL SPREAD INTO I-20 CORRIDOR 19-23Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10 WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 020131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 020131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 012330
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 012330
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 011937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 011937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 011717
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTH FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION JUST MOVG ONSHORE IN SOUTH LA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH BY TIME IT REACHES
I-20. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS AS IS...AND GIVEN AROUND A 10 DEGREE
RISE IN TEMPS FROM 10 AM READINGS...AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NO UPDATE ATTM./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 011717
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTH FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION JUST MOVG ONSHORE IN SOUTH LA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH BY TIME IT REACHES
I-20. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS AS IS...AND GIVEN AROUND A 10 DEGREE
RISE IN TEMPS FROM 10 AM READINGS...AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NO UPDATE ATTM./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 011524
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTH FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION JUST MOVG ONSHORE IN SOUTH LA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH BY TIME IT REACHES
I-20. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS AS IS...AND GIVEN AROUND A 10 DEGREE
RISE IN TEMPS FROM 10 AM READINGS...AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NO UPDATE ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 011139
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 011139
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 010930
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 010930
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 010444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02/00Z. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 010444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02/00Z. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 010249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVE POP WORDING FROM THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TWEAK SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET EVENING WILL FADE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE LAST SHOWERS
LONG GONE. STILL HALF OF US UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 70S ASIDE FROM A FEW HOLD OUTS IN NE
TX WHERE THE DAY WAS WARMER AS WELL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST ON THE SURFACE WITH A LOW LEVEL SW JET DEEP ON OUR
SOUNDING AND VAD WITH LOW STRATUS AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 010249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVE POP WORDING FROM THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TWEAK SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET EVENING WILL FADE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE LAST SHOWERS
LONG GONE. STILL HALF OF US UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 70S ASIDE FROM A FEW HOLD OUTS IN NE
TX WHERE THE DAY WAS WARMER AS WELL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST ON THE SURFACE WITH A LOW LEVEL SW JET DEEP ON OUR
SOUNDING AND VAD WITH LOW STRATUS AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 312318
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 312318
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 311957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLD THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK LAPSE RATES INHIBITING ANY STG
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO
LOOKING AT MORE ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT SOUTHERN CWA FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. BY MID WEEK...UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
SW STATES...BEGINS TO MERGE INTO ONE BROAD TROUGH. DEEP SOUTH
FLOW...UNDERNEATH WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS...SO EXPECTING THAT DIURNAL PATTERN TO HOLD UNTIL NEAR
WEEKEND...AS STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN NORTH OF I-40. AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURG THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DROP TOWARDS AREA AS IT WASHES OUT. A LOSS OF
LOW LVL GULF FLOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...AS LOW LVL EAST FLOW IN
NORTHERN GULF CUTS OFF STREAM OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY HELP GENERATE CONVECTION DURG WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 311957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLD THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK LAPSE RATES INHIBITING ANY STG
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO
LOOKING AT MORE ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT SOUTHERN CWA FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. BY MID WEEK...UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
SW STATES...BEGINS TO MERGE INTO ONE BROAD TROUGH. DEEP SOUTH
FLOW...UNDERNEATH WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS...SO EXPECTING THAT DIURNAL PATTERN TO HOLD UNTIL NEAR
WEEKEND...AS STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN NORTH OF I-40. AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURG THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DROP TOWARDS AREA AS IT WASHES OUT. A LOSS OF
LOW LVL GULF FLOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...AS LOW LVL EAST FLOW IN
NORTHERN GULF CUTS OFF STREAM OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY HELP GENERATE CONVECTION DURG WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 311703
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS FOR FAR SOUTH CWA TO
50 PERCENT..AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX...AND
MOVE INTO THE TOLEDO BEND AREA. DECREASED TEMP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 80S...WHERE THIS RAIN IS OCCURRING...AND WHERE
CLOUD COVER IS GREATER INTO PORTIONS OF LA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  89  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  93  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  90  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

07/07






000
FXUS64 KSHV 311703
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS FOR FAR SOUTH CWA TO
50 PERCENT..AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX...AND
MOVE INTO THE TOLEDO BEND AREA. DECREASED TEMP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 80S...WHERE THIS RAIN IS OCCURRING...AND WHERE
CLOUD COVER IS GREATER INTO PORTIONS OF LA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  89  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  93  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  90  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

07/07







000
FXUS64 KSHV 311701
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  89  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  93  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  90  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 311201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z BEFORE WE SEE CEILING ABOVE 3KFT.
EVENTUALLY...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS OPPORTUNITY WOULD LIKELY ONLY EFFECT THE MLU TERMINAL.

SKIES FAIR OFF THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY
LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 311201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z BEFORE WE SEE CEILING ABOVE 3KFT.
EVENTUALLY...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS OPPORTUNITY WOULD LIKELY ONLY EFFECT THE MLU TERMINAL.

SKIES FAIR OFF THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY
LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310929
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310929
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310439
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR AND BELOW ACROSS AREA TERMINAL SITES
FROM 31/06Z THROUGH 31/14Z. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREAWIDE AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 01/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY WEST AND POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW 80S LEFT IN THE CWA OVER NE TX...MOST LOCALES NOW IN THE
70S WHERE WE WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE LOWER END BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
ARE THINNING A BIT AND EVEN CLEARING OVER NE TX. THE SHV 88D IS
NOW IN CLEAR AIR MODE SEARCHING FOR RETURNS WITH LITTLE TO BE
FOUND. THE LAST FEW STREAMERS OF SHOWERS HAVE EXITED UNION PARISH
THIS PAST HOUR. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS IN GENERAL WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO SKY OVER OUR WEST AS WELL. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS LINGERING...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS JUST NOT IN PLACE
ANY LONGER WITH THE WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL LOWS YESTERDAY. MUCH OF THAT LEAD VORTICITY
IS NOW OVER E TN AND N GA. MOST MODELS ARE VERY MODEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HRRR MODEL DOES FLICKER IN AND OUT A BIT OF
QPF OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THERE.
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY WEST AND POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW 80S LEFT IN THE CWA OVER NE TX...MOST LOCALES NOW IN THE
70S WHERE WE WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE LOWER END BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
ARE THINNING A BIT AND EVEN CLEARING OVER NE TX. THE SHV 88D IS
NOW IN CLEAR AIR MODE SEARCHING FOR RETURNS WITH LITTLE TO BE
FOUND. THE LAST FEW STREAMERS OF SHOWERS HAVE EXITED UNION PARISH
THIS PAST HOUR. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS IN GENERAL WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO SKY OVER OUR WEST AS WELL. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS LINGERING...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS JUST NOT IN PLACE
ANY LONGER WITH THE WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL LOWS YESTERDAY. MUCH OF THAT LEAD VORTICITY
IS NOW OVER E TN AND N GA. MOST MODELS ARE VERY MODEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HRRR MODEL DOES FLICKER IN AND OUT A BIT OF
QPF OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THERE.
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014


.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014


.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REMAINED A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON MORNING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN...AND WIL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ISOLD CELLS
HAVE DEVELOP ALONG UPPER TROF FROM TX HILL COUNTRY INTO MO...BUT
WITH FAIRLY LOW MEAN RH VALUES...DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE NW HALF OF CWA IN ISOLD POPS...AND
HAVE LOWERED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. ALSO KEEPING THUNDER
AS EMBEDDED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CURRENT TRENDS OF
LACKING IN DEEP CONVECTION. GOING MAINLY WITH GFS...WHICH PERFORMS
BETTER WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE GULF. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF RETREATING GULF LOW AS WELL AS
UPPER TROF AT BASE OF WESTERLIES...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EARLY IN WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER SW STATES...MERGE INTO ONE BROAD RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S
AGAIN...WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. HINTS AT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 301944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REMAINED A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON MORNING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN...AND WIL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ISOLD CELLS
HAVE DEVELOP ALONG UPPER TROF FROM TX HILL COUNTRY INTO MO...BUT
WITH FAIRLY LOW MEAN RH VALUES...DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE NW HALF OF CWA IN ISOLD POPS...AND
HAVE LOWERED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. ALSO KEEPING THUNDER
AS EMBEDDED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CURRENT TRENDS OF
LACKING IN DEEP CONVECTION. GOING MAINLY WITH GFS...WHICH PERFORMS
BETTER WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE GULF. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF RETREATING GULF LOW AS WELL AS
UPPER TROF AT BASE OF WESTERLIES...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EARLY IN WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER SW STATES...MERGE INTO ONE BROAD RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S
AGAIN...WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. HINTS AT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301606
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY FOR SOME AIRPORTS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX/SW LA COAST AND THE RESULT WILL BE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL RADAR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY FILLING IN NOW ACROSS
SW LA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE. EXPECTING SEVERAL
HOURS OF PREVAILING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS AS A RESULT. FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT THE TXK/SHV/LFK TERMINALS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE GGG/TYR TERMINALS.

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR ACROSS MOST OF NE TX WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY LOWERING FURTHER EAST AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD MOVES NNE.

A MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PULL OUT NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301606
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY FOR SOME AIRPORTS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX/SW LA COAST AND THE RESULT WILL BE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL RADAR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY FILLING IN NOW ACROSS
SW LA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE. EXPECTING SEVERAL
HOURS OF PREVAILING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS AS A RESULT. FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT THE TXK/SHV/LFK TERMINALS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE GGG/TYR TERMINALS.

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR ACROSS MOST OF NE TX WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY LOWERING FURTHER EAST AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD MOVES NNE.

A MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PULL OUT NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 301043
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
543 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY FOR SOME AIRPORTS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX/SW LA COAST AND THE RESULT WILL BE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL RADAR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY FILLING IN NOW ACROSS
SW LA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE. EXPECTING SEVERAL
HOURS OF PREVAILING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS AS A RESULT. FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT THE TXK/SHV/LFK TERMINALS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE GGG/TYR TERMINALS.

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR ACROSS MOST OF NE TX WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY LOWERING FURTHER EAST AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD MOVES NNE.

A MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PULL OUT NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  70  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  40  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  40  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  80  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  40  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  60  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELITTE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  70  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  40  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  40  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  80  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  40  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  60  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELITTE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  70  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  40  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  40  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  80  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  40  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  60  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







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