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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271201
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
701 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 27/12z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms will affect all
terminals for at least the first half of the TAF period. A couple
of strong clusters of convection are still west of the area across
Central Texas, and this activity will move across the region
today. Additional development or intensification may occur, which
could lead to some severe storms, also. Flight conditions and
winds will likely vary a great deal due to the effects of the
convection. Most of the TAF sites should see an end to the precip
after 28/00z. However, lingering convection could affect KMLU/KELD
through the end of the period.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This morning surface high pressure over the Southeast States
in combination with surface low pressure over the plains continued
to supply low level moisture into the central sections of the
country. This moisture will combine with a series of upper level
disturbances and additional moisture associated with a closed
upper low pressure system over the Southern Rockies to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Four
State Region today and into tonight. A slight risk for severe
thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight with the main
threats being large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated
tornado...mainly over parts of Southeast Oklahoma, East and
Northeast Texas, and a small part of Southwest Arkansas. Due to
the high precipitable water values, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible and may produce ponding of water and could lead to
flash flooding. A tight pressure gradient between the surface high
to the East and the surface low pressure system to the Northwest
will produce strong and gusty winds beginning during the mid to
late morning and lingering into the middle of the evening. the
Southerly winds will be reaching 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts to
30 to 35 MPH before diminishing in the evening. Have issued a Lake
Wind Advisory for the Four State Region. The upper low will be
lifting out into the Central and Northern Plains late Saturday
and becomes an open wave taking most of its energy away for our
area and will not provide a necessary push to send a cold front
into the area. However after a brief lowering the of the rain
chances in the middle of the weekend, another in a series of
disturbances will be moving into the region ahead of our next
closing upper low over Southern CA. This next upper low/trough
will be slow to exit the Southwest section of the country and
Northern Mexico keeping an unsettled weather pattern for the
forecast area into next week. A Northern Stream upper low
pressure system will shift east across the Canadian and Northern
U.S.border region helping nudge a cold front into the county
warning area during mid to late week that will become nearly
stationary providing a focus for convection with disturbances
associated with the Southwest tracking upper low. Model data hints
that the closed low will rotate around over Texas keeping a wet
and cooler pattern through the weekend. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  86  69 /  90  60  30  20
MLU  84  69  86  69 /  80  50  50  10
DEQ  79  67  85  68 /  90  50  30  30
TXK  81  69  86  68 /  90  60  30  30
ELD  81  69  85  68 /  90  60  50  10
TYR  82  71  87  70 /  90  50  30  20
GGG  82  71  86  70 /  90  60  30  10
LFK  83  72  88  70 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

06/09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270238
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
938 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity was
slowly diminishing whilst pushing East Southeast with time. Main
activity was noted across deep East Texas, central LA and portions
of North central LA and Northeast LA. Will hold on to best pops
across the aforementioned areas and decline pops to slight chance
and chance categories across Northwest LA and Northeast TX. That
is until an hour or so after midnight where a complex of storms
pushing east across central TX could near the region once again.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Main axis of precip over NW LA and extreme Eastern TX... is
widespread rain with just a few embedded tstms as stg storms over
SE TX and SW LA have cut off the gulf inflow needed for deeper
convection. most of this precip has moved east of ktyr and kggg
and remaining South of ktxk. Isold stgr convection farther East
will affect both the keld and the kmlu terminals 00-02z...with
heavy rainfall and stg gusty winds possible near cells. Klfk is
catching some stgr tstms sneaking into area from SE TX. Expecting
both isold storms and larger area of rain to both diminish around
02-03z this eve. Mostly mid lvl clouds to prevail once convection
diminishes. By around 27/07-08z, low clouds returning to East TX
and these mostly mvfr decks to spread eastward btwn 27/12-14z.
south winds overnight at least 5 to 10 kts....with S-SE winds
currently over ktyr and kggg at 15 to 20kts, gusting over 30 kts.
Scattered or possibly greater coverage of convection expected to
begin over NE TX after 27/14z. S-SE winds back up to 15 to 20 kts
areawide and may gust in excess of 35 kts over portions of NE TX.
wind gusts in storms could even be stgr. /vii/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage across
East Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas this afternoon. SPC
continues to have a Slight Risk for SVR storms along and west of a
line from Tyler,TX to Texarkana,AR. At the moment, it looks like
the greatest threat of SVR weather would come in the form of
damaging winds. Hail up to dime size is possible, but it appears
that the hail threat will be minimum as well as any tornado
threat. Showers and tstorms should diminish in coverage by late
evening.

On Friday, another upper level system will approach the region. A slight
risk of severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across
East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas.
Instability associated with enhanced low- level moisture ahead of
a dry line across Texas, an approaching upper-low, and a strong
low-level jet are the primary factors contributing to severe
potential. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with
isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall will also be a
possibility on Friday with some areas possibly experiencing up to
4 inches, mainly across Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
extreme Southwest Arkansas.

An active weather pattern will continue across the region through
the weekend and into early next week, as an upper trough develops
across the SW portions of the US. Atmospheric conditions will
remain high for isolated to scattered showers/tstorms to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours each day...so decided to
leave a chance of pops in the forecast through next week.

High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s and lows
in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the weekend into early next
week. High temperatures could approach the lower 90s across
portions of the region early next week through the end of the
forecast period, making for very hot and humid conditions. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  82  70  86 /  50  60  50  40
MLU  72  84  69  86 /  70  50  40  60
DEQ  69  79  67  84 /  40  70  60  30
TXK  70  81  68  85 /  50  70  60  40
ELD  71  81  68  85 /  50  60  50  50
TYR  72  81  70  86 /  50  70  60  30
GGG  71  81  70  86 /  50  70  60  30
LFK  73  83  72  88 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270017
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
717 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

The swath of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to
slowly shift East Southeast with time. Heaviest rainfall amounts
today have occurred across northeast Texas and deep East Texas,
with deep East Texas still experiencing moderate rainfall this
evening. However, rainfall rates have slowed down a bit. Have
therefore increased pops to likely category to reflect latest
radar trends, with best pops shifting South and East throughout
the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Main axis of precip over NW LA and extreme Eastern TX... is
widespread rain with just a few embedded tstms as stg storms over
SE TX and SW LA have cut off the gulf inflow needed for deeper
convection. most of this precip has moved east of ktyr and kggg
and remaining South of ktxk. Isold stgr convection farther East
will affect both the keld and the kmlu terminals 00-02z...with
heavy rainfall and stg gusty winds possible near cells. Klfk is
catching some stgr tstms sneaking into area from SE TX. Expecting
both isold storms and larger area of rain to both diminish around
02-03z this eve. Mostly mid lvl clouds to prevail once convection
diminishes. By around 27/07-08z, low clouds returning to East TX
and these mostly mvfr decks to spread eastward btwn 27/12-14z.
south winds overnight at least 5 to 10 kts....with S-SE winds
currently over ktyr and kggg at 15 to 20kts, gusting over 30 kts.
Scattered or possibly greater coverage of convection expected to
begin over NE TX after 27/14z. S-SE winds back up to 15 to 20 kts
areawide and may gust in excess of 35 kts over portions of NE TX.
wind gusts in storms could even be stgr. /vii/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage across
East Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas this afternoon. SPC
continues to have a Slight Risk for SVR storms along and west of a
line from Tyler,TX to Texarkana,AR. At the moment, it looks like
the greatest threat of SVR weather would come in the form of
damaging winds. Hail up to dime size is possible, but it appears
that the hail threat will be minimum as well as any tornado
threat. Showers and tstorms should diminish in coverage by late
evening.

On Friday, another upper level system will approach the region. A slight
risk of severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across
East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas.
Instability associated with enhanced low- level moisture ahead of
a dry line across Texas, an approaching upper-low, and a strong
low-level jet are the primary factors contributing to severe
potential. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with
isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall will also be a
possibility on Friday with some areas possibly experiencing up to
4 inches, mainly across Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
extreme Southwest Arkansas.

An active weather pattern will continue across the region through
the weekend and into early next week, as an upper trough develops
across the SW portions of the US. Atmospheric conditions will
remain high for isolated to scattered showers/tstorms to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours each day...so decided to
leave a chance of pops in the forecast through next week.

High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s and lows
in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the weekend into early next
week. High temperatures could approach the lower 90s across
portions of the region early next week through the end of the
forecast period, making for very hot and humid conditions. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  82  70  86 /  70  60  50  40
MLU  72  84  69  86 /  60  50  40  60
DEQ  69  79  67  84 /  60  70  60  30
TXK  70  81  68  85 /  60  70  60  40
ELD  71  81  68  85 /  50  60  50  50
TYR  72  81  70  86 /  70  70  60  30
GGG  71  81  70  86 /  70  70  60  30
LFK  73  83  72  88 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261753
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1253 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection increasing across the region, and will affect E TX/SW
AR/NW LA terminals over the next few hours. Questionable as to how
far e the convection will make it today, so have left only VCTS
attm for KMLU/KELD. Expecting this round of convection to diminish
by this evening, but additional development is expected Friday
morning. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be intermittently possible
throughout the pd. Winds will continue out of the s at 8-12 kts
with gusts possible during the daylight hours. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1012 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast package looks on track, so no changes planned for
the morning/afternoon. A large complex of showers...with a few
embedded t-storms...will continue to move to the NE out of north
and central Texas. Showers/T-storms will continue to develop
across the region today, with the best chances across East Texas,
SW Arkansas, and SE Oklahoma. The Storm Prediction Center has a
Slight Risk of severe storms west of a line from Tyler,TX to
Texarkana,AR...so can`t rule out storms with quarter size hail,
and damaging winds this afternoon/evening near and around those
areas. /20/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A transitional weather pattern expected today with showers and
thunderstorms to increase in coverage as an upper-low across the
desert southwest begins to shift northeast. Southwest flow aloft
ahead of the upper-low to allow for enhanced atmospheric moisture
to maintain mostly cloudy skies throughout the day.

With decent height falls ahead of the approaching upper-low,
rainfall to continue into Friday with some areas possibly
experiencing up to 4 inches, mainly across Southeast Oklahoma,
Northeast Texas, and extreme Southwest Arkansas.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is possible today and Friday
mainly across mainly Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and
Southwest Arkansas. Instability associated with enhanced low-
level moisture ahead of a dry line across Texas, an approaching
upper-low, and a strong low-level jet are the primary factors
contributing to severe potential. Hail and damaging winds will be
the main threat with isolated tornadoes possible.

Upper ridge to rebuild across the region on Saturday into Sunday
bringing drier conditions to the region. A weak upper-level
disturbance to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region on Monday afternoon. Upper-level ridge to shift east by
midweek maintaining a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the forecast period.

Temperatures to range from highs in the upper 80s and lows around
70 through the weekend. Could see high temperatures around 90
across the region early next week through the end of the forecast
period. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  72  81  70 /  50  40  70  60
MLU  88  72  84  69 /  40  40  50  40
DEQ  83  69  77  67 /  50  70  80  70
TXK  84  70  79  68 /  50  60  80  60
ELD  86  70  81  67 /  50  50  60  60
TYR  84  72  80  70 /  50  60  80  60
GGG  85  71  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
LFK  85  73  82  70 /  40  30  60  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261206
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
706 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 26/12z TAFs, low stratus is leading to patchy instances of
MVFR/IFR flight conditions, but cigs should lift into the VFR
range by 26/16z. The forecast becomes increasingly complicated as
convection moves into the area from the west by late morning and
through the afternoon. Some storms could be severe, especially
across E TX/SE OK/SW AR. This is some uncertainty regarding the
duration and eastward extent of the convection. Therefore, -TSRA
was prevailed at KTXK/KTYR/KGGG/KLFK where there is higher
confidence regarding impacts. The remainder of the TAFs still
contain mentions of VCTS. Current thinking is there should be some
decrease in coverage of precip during the overnight hours, if not
a brief break entirely. However, another round of convection
should be approaching from the west near the end of the TAF
period. In addition, rich southerly low level flow will bring more
low clouds and MVFR cigs into the region after 27/06z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A transitional weather pattern expected today with showers and
thunderstorms to increase in coverage as an upper-low across the
desert southwest begins to shift northeast. Southwest flow aloft
ahead of the upper-low to allow for enhanced atmospheric moisture
to maintain mostly cloudy skies throughout the day.

With decent height falls ahead of the approaching upper-low,
rainfall to continue into Friday with some areas possibly
experiencing up to 4 inches, mainly across Southeast Oklahoma,
Northeast Texas, and extreme Southwest Arkansas.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is possible today and Friday
mainly across mainly Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and
Southwest Arkansas. Instability associated with enhanced low-
level moisture ahead of a dry line across Texas, an approaching
upper-low, and a strong low-level jet are the primary factors
contributing to severe potential. Hail and damaging winds will be
the main threat with isolated tornadoes possible.

Upper ridge to rebuild across the region on Saturday into Sunday
bringing drier conditions to the region. A weak upper-level
disturbance to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region on Monday afternoon. Upper-level ridge to shift east by
midweek maintaining a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the forecast period.

Temperatures to range from highs in the upper 80s and lows around
70 through the weekend. Could see high temperatures around 90
across the region early next week through the end of the forecast
period. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  72  81  70 /  50  40  70  60
MLU  88  72  84  69 /  40  40  50  40
DEQ  83  69  77  67 /  50  70  80  70
TXK  84  70  79  68 /  50  60  80  60
ELD  86  70  81  67 /  50  50  60  60
TYR  84  72  80  70 /  50  60  80  60
GGG  85  71  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
LFK  85  73  82  70 /  40  30  60  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260449
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1149 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, VFR with S/SE sfc winds 5-15kts.
MVFR cigs are already in and out of Deep E TX and likely over
much by daybreak. The upper low edging over W AZ moving East and
has a load of Pacific moisture focused in on E TX although the
computer models remain flashy with precip areas and we have VCTS
in at our sites again for tomorrow with increasing coverage into
Friday. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 908 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Things have quieted down since the scattered thunderstorm activity
across portions of North central LA and Northeast LA from earlier
this evening. Will hold on to 20 percent pops overnight across
the CWA given a few computer models hint at the potential for a
few showers to develop. Otherwise, forecast largely on track with
best precipitation chances still looking to occur tomorrow through
Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more day of quiet conditions expected through late Thursday
morning before SCT showers and TSTMS spread from W to E across the
forecast area for Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

Seasonably strong short wave trough to move SW to NE from the Four
Corners area through the central US through Saturday morning. Expect
numerous showers and TSTMS to develop with this trough. The GFS model
shows some bullseyes of very heavy rainfall across E TX but the ECMWF
model shows lighter totals. Until confidence increases in the storm
timing and rainfall totals...will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at
this time.

Appears Sunday should provide a break from the weather...but another
trough to traverse the area for Memorial Day through Tuesday morning
with SCT to numerous showers and TSTMS expected.

The bottom line for the upcoming holiday weekend is unsettled
conditions with the exception of most of Sunday. Area travelers and
vacationers need to be mindful of developing weather conditions.

Unfortunately...SW flow continues for the middle of next week through
the first days of June with rain in the forecast as another trough
passage is progged.  /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  84  71  81 /  20  40  50  70
MLU  73  86  72  84 /  20  40  30  40
DEQ  72  82  69  77 /  20  50  60  80
TXK  73  83  70  79 /  20  50  60  80
ELD  73  85  70  82 /  20  50  40  60
TYR  74  82  71  79 /  20  50  60  80
GGG  74  83  71  80 /  20  50  60  70
LFK  75  83  73  82 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/08





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260003
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
703 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, VFR with S/SE sfc winds 5-15kts. Overall pattern
remains the same with MVFR cigs overnight and into the early
morning hours. The upper low over S CA is moving East and has a
load of Pacific moisture focused in on E TX although the computer
models remain flashey with precip areas and we have VCTS in at our
sites again for tomorrow with increasing coverage into Friday. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Have elected to raise pops to chance category across portions of
North central LA and Northeast LA per latest radar trends.
Precipitation amounts will be relatively low but a few rumbles of
thunder can not be ruled out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

UPDATE...
SCT showers and TSTMS currently developing over NE LA and SE AR so
will update text and gridded forecasts to account for the remainder
of this Wednesday afternoon. /VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more day of quiet conditions expected through late Thursday
morning before SCT showers and TSTMS spread from W to E across the
forecast area for Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

Seasonably strong short wave trough to move SW to NE from the Four
Corners area through the central US through Saturday morning. Expect
numerous showers and TSTMS to develop with this trough. The GFS model
shows some bullseyes of very heavy rainfall across E TX but the ECMWF
model shows lighter totals. Until confidence increases in the storm
timing and rainfall totals...will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at
this time.

Appears Sunday should provide a break from the weather...but another
trough to traverse the area for Memorial Day through Tuesday morning
with SCT to numerous showers and TSTMS expected.

The bottom line for the upcoming holiday weekend is unsettled
conditions with the exception of most of Sunday. Area travelers and
vacationers need to be mindful of developing weather conditions.

Unfortunately...SW flow continues for the middle of next week through
the first days of June with rain in the forecast as another trough
passage is progged.  /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  84  71  81 /  20  40  50  70
MLU  73  86  72  84 /  20  40  30  40
DEQ  72  82  69  77 /  20  50  60  80
TXK  73  83  70  79 /  20  50  60  80
ELD  73  85  70  82 /  20  50  40  60
TYR  74  82  71  79 /  20  50  60  80
GGG  74  83  71  80 /  20  50  60  70
LFK  75  83  73  82 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/08





000
FXUS64 KSHV 251949 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
SCT showers and TSTMS currently developing over NE LA and SE AR so
will update text and gridded forecasts to account for the remainder
of this Wednesday afternoon. /VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more day of quiet conditions expected through late Thursday
morning before SCT showers and TSTMS spread from W to E across the
forecast area for Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

Seasonably strong short wave trough to move SW to NE from the Four
Corners area through the central US through Saturday morning. Expect
numerous showers and TSTMS to develop with this trough. The GFS model
shows some bullseyes of very heavy rainfall across E TX but the ECMWF
model shows lighter totals. Until confidence increases in the storm
timing and rainfall totals...will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at
this time.

Appears Sunday should provide a break from the weather...but another
trough to traverse the area for Memorial Day through Tuesday morning
with SCT to numerous showers and TSTMS expected.

The bottom line for the upcoming holiday weekend is unsettled
conditions with the exception of most of Sunday. Area travelers and
vacationers need to be mindful of developing weather conditions.

Unfortunately...SW flow continues for the middle of next week through
the first days of June with rain in the forecast as another trough
passage is progged.  /VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1209 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon and much of the
overnight hours. Sct convection will be possible once again
mainly during the afternoon/early evening, but limited coverage
will keep mention out of the 18Z TAFs attm. Stratus is expected
to return late tonight/Thursday morning, and will likely
lift/scatter out by around mid to late morning. Otherwise, gusty
sly winds are expected to diminish some overnight, but increase
once again to between 8-13 kts after sunrise. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  84  71  81 /  20  40  50  70
MLU  73  86  72  84 /  20  40  30  40
DEQ  72  82  69  77 /  20  50  60  80
TXK  73  83  70  79 /  20  50  60  80
ELD  73  85  70  82 /  20  50  40  60
TYR  74  82  71  79 /  20  50  60  80
GGG  74  83  71  80 /  20  50  60  70
LFK  75  83  73  82 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

08





000
FXUS64 KSHV 250503
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, MVFR cigs working in over E TX early. We still
sport a light SE surface flow. Aloft, our winds quickly veer
around to SW 20-30KT on initial climb from 1-3kft. Speeds are
50-70KT from W/NW by fl300-320. Overnight we will see some more
IFR/MVFR mainly for cigs 09-15z. Convection does look to pick up
in the next day or two as the upper trough brings lower
heights/pressures aloft early in the holiday weekend. Some
improvements will occur late Sat as the upper ridge builds back in
it`s wake ahead of the next big west coast trough. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 901 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Light scattered showers popping up North of Interstate 20 late
this evening, as well as isolated activity noted just south of
kshv. Have expanded chance pops to portions of Northwest
Louisiana and East Texas as well as raising pops to slight chance
category across portions of North central Louisiana, as some
computer models hint at the potential for additional activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon, the upper air pattern remained almost the same as
it has been lately. Ridging aloft from the Western Gulf of Mexico
into the middle sections of the country and with closed
lows/troughs across the West and East coasts. This synoptic
pattern to remain fairly unchanged through much of the forecast
period. The upper ridge of high pressure will shift East over the
later part of the work week with weak perturbations/disturbances
riding along in the Southwest flow contributing to the middle and
high level moisture while on the surface high pressure over the
Southeast States adds low level moisture. The Weak disturbances
in the flow aloft will contribute to daily convection mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. The more Northern zones
will typically see the higher chances for convection given
the location of the disturbances and available energy. An upper
low across Southern California will shift out across the Four
Corners Region during Thursday with rain chances for the forecast
area ramping up to high chance and likely categories for late
Thursday and into late Friday. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible for this period. rain chances will be eroding during the
weekend with the upper long wave trough shifting east of the area
and brief riding aloft returning to the Four State Region. However
for the late weekend the next upper low/trough off the West coast
returns the Southwest flow pattern as it swings across the Western
States and starts its track East. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  87  73  85 /  30  20  10  40
MLU  70  89  72  87 /  10  10  10  30
DEQ  69  85  71  83 /  30  20  10  50
TXK  71  86  72  84 /  30  20  10  50
ELD  70  88  72  85 /  20  20  10  40
TYR  72  87  74  83 /  30  10  20  50
GGG  72  87  73  84 /  20  20  10  40
LFK  73  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/06





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