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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-
     021-022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-
     021-022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-
     021-022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280238 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280238 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280238 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280238 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280144
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280144
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ010-011-017>020.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-111-112-126-
     137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ010-011-017>020.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-111-112-126-
     137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271733 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD. THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD SFC BNDRY FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK/NE TX SW ACROSS E TX
INTO WCNTRL LA JUST E OF LOWER TOLEDO BEND. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS
STRONG HEATING CONTINUES WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE E TX
TERMINALS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN/T
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OK/WRN AR AS WELL. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/REDUCED
VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CONVECTION BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS EVENING...SKC WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
SE TX WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
SSE WINDS 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS
UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AVERAGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271733 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD. THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD SFC BNDRY FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK/NE TX SW ACROSS E TX
INTO WCNTRL LA JUST E OF LOWER TOLEDO BEND. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS
STRONG HEATING CONTINUES WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE E TX
TERMINALS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN/T
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OK/WRN AR AS WELL. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/REDUCED
VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CONVECTION BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS EVENING...SKC WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
SE TX WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
SSE WINDS 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS
UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AVERAGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271733 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD. THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD SFC BNDRY FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK/NE TX SW ACROSS E TX
INTO WCNTRL LA JUST E OF LOWER TOLEDO BEND. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS
STRONG HEATING CONTINUES WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE E TX
TERMINALS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN/T
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OK/WRN AR AS WELL. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/REDUCED
VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CONVECTION BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS EVENING...SKC WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
SE TX WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
SSE WINDS 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS
UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AVERAGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271733 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD. THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD SFC BNDRY FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK/NE TX SW ACROSS E TX
INTO WCNTRL LA JUST E OF LOWER TOLEDO BEND. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS
STRONG HEATING CONTINUES WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE E TX
TERMINALS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN/T
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OK/WRN AR AS WELL. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/REDUCED
VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CONVECTION BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS EVENING...SKC WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
SE TX WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
SSE WINDS 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS
UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AVERAGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271453
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS
UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AVERAGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS 12Z TAF PD. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY S OF I-2O
OVER E TX. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION THROUGH VCTS...BUT ISOLD
NATURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY TEMPO/FM GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING THE INTENSE HEAT
THAT HAS GRIPPED OUR REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MONTH. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION...WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX. IF WE SEE ANY ISOLD SHWRS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE OVER OUR SRN
ZONES IN E TX AND WRN LA SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY DUE TO SOME DRIER
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WORKING EWD LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...
NO BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL COME UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS SWD BEHIND THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT STILL MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANY BREAK WE DO SEE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271453
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS
UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AVERAGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS 12Z TAF PD. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY S OF I-2O
OVER E TX. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION THROUGH VCTS...BUT ISOLD
NATURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY TEMPO/FM GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING THE INTENSE HEAT
THAT HAS GRIPPED OUR REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MONTH. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION...WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX. IF WE SEE ANY ISOLD SHWRS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE OVER OUR SRN
ZONES IN E TX AND WRN LA SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY DUE TO SOME DRIER
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WORKING EWD LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...
NO BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL COME UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS SWD BEHIND THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT STILL MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANY BREAK WE DO SEE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271453
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS
UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AVERAGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS 12Z TAF PD. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY S OF I-2O
OVER E TX. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION THROUGH VCTS...BUT ISOLD
NATURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY TEMPO/FM GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING THE INTENSE HEAT
THAT HAS GRIPPED OUR REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MONTH. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION...WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX. IF WE SEE ANY ISOLD SHWRS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE OVER OUR SRN
ZONES IN E TX AND WRN LA SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY DUE TO SOME DRIER
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WORKING EWD LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...
NO BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL COME UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS SWD BEHIND THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT STILL MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANY BREAK WE DO SEE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS 12Z TAF PD. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY S OF I-2O
OVER E TX. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION THROUGH VCTS...BUT ISOLD
NATURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY TEMPO/FM GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING THE INTENSE HEAT
THAT HAS GRIPPED OUR REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MONTH. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION...WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX. IF WE SEE ANY ISOLD SHWRS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE OVER OUR SRN
ZONES IN E TX AND WRN LA SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY DUE TO SOME DRIER
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WORKING EWD LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...
NO BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL COME UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS SWD BEHIND THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT STILL MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANY BREAK WE DO SEE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS 12Z TAF PD. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY S OF I-2O
OVER E TX. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION THROUGH VCTS...BUT ISOLD
NATURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY TEMPO/FM GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING THE INTENSE HEAT
THAT HAS GRIPPED OUR REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MONTH. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION...WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX. IF WE SEE ANY ISOLD SHWRS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE OVER OUR SRN
ZONES IN E TX AND WRN LA SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY DUE TO SOME DRIER
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WORKING EWD LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...
NO BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL COME UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS SWD BEHIND THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT STILL MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANY BREAK WE DO SEE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270823
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING THE INTENSE HEAT
THAT HAS GRIPPED OUR REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MONTH. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION...WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX. IF WE SEE ANY ISOLD SHWRS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE OVER OUR SRN
ZONES IN E TX AND WRN LA SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY DUE TO SOME DRIER
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WORKING EWRD LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...
NO BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL COME UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS SWRD BEHIND THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT STILL MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANY BREAK WE DO SEE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270823
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING THE INTENSE HEAT
THAT HAS GRIPPED OUR REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MONTH. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION...WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX. IF WE SEE ANY ISOLD SHWRS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE OVER OUR SRN
ZONES IN E TX AND WRN LA SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY DUE TO SOME DRIER
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WORKING EWRD LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...
NO BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL COME UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS SWRD BEHIND THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT STILL MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANY BREAK WE DO SEE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270511
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1211 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING
MIST/BR WHERE RAIN FELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER 27/14Z MONDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. ONLY A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN NEAR NACOGDOCHES AND LUFKIN AND THOSE MAY
DISSIPATE BEFORE I CAN GET THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXT PRODUCTS
TRANSMITTED. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND WILL HANDLE THESE FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WITH SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PRODUCTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT...AND SKY GRIDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDANT 850MB THETA-E AXIS
HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W BACK
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 73 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 10
TXK 76 101 76 100 / 0 10 10 10
ELD 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 77 100 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 75 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 &&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/99/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270511
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1211 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING
MIST/BR WHERE RAIN FELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER 27/14Z MONDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. ONLY A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN NEAR NACOGDOCHES AND LUFKIN AND THOSE MAY
DISSIPATE BEFORE I CAN GET THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXT PRODUCTS
TRANSMITTED. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND WILL HANDLE THESE FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WITH SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PRODUCTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT...AND SKY GRIDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDANT 850MB THETA-E AXIS
HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W BACK
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 73 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 10
TXK 76 101 76 100 / 0 10 10 10
ELD 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 77 100 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 75 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 &&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270511
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1211 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING
MIST/BR WHERE RAIN FELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER 27/14Z MONDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. ONLY A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN NEAR NACOGDOCHES AND LUFKIN AND THOSE MAY
DISSIPATE BEFORE I CAN GET THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXT PRODUCTS
TRANSMITTED. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND WILL HANDLE THESE FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WITH SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PRODUCTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT...AND SKY GRIDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDANT 850MB THETA-E AXIS
HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W BACK
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 73 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 10
TXK 76 101 76 100 / 0 10 10 10
ELD 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 77 100 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 75 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 &&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270511
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1211 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING
MIST/BR WHERE RAIN FELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER 27/14Z MONDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. ONLY A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN NEAR NACOGDOCHES AND LUFKIN AND THOSE MAY
DISSIPATE BEFORE I CAN GET THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXT PRODUCTS
TRANSMITTED. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND WILL HANDLE THESE FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WITH SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PRODUCTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT...AND SKY GRIDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDANT 850MB THETA-E AXIS
HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W BACK
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 73 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 10
TXK 76 101 76 100 / 0 10 10 10
ELD 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 77 100 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 75 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 &&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/99/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270250 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. ONLY A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN NEAR NACOGDOCHES AND LUFKIN AND THOSE MAY
DISSIPATE BEFORE I CAN GET THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXT PRODUCTS
TRANSMITTED. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND WILL HANDLE THESE FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WITH SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PRODUCTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT...AND SKY GRIDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE. COULD SEE
A FEW DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 27/14Z
MONDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDANT 850MB THETA-E AXIS
HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W BACK
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  75 100  75  99 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  99  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  76 101  76 100 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  74 100  74  99 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
     137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270250 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. ONLY A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN NEAR NACOGDOCHES AND LUFKIN AND THOSE MAY
DISSIPATE BEFORE I CAN GET THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXT PRODUCTS
TRANSMITTED. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND WILL HANDLE THESE FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WITH SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PRODUCTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT...AND SKY GRIDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE. COULD SEE
A FEW DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 27/14Z
MONDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDANT 850MB THETA-E AXIS
HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W BACK
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  75 100  75  99 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  99  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  76 101  76 100 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  74 100  74  99 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
     137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270016
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
716 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE. COULD SEE
A FEW DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 27/14Z
MONDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DINMINSHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDENT 850MB THETA-E AXIS HAS
NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETORGRADE W BACK OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.

THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  75 100  75  99 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  76 101  76 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  74 100  74  99 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  75  99  74  98 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
     137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 262107
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DINMINSHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUT MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK
IN 1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY
JUST TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDENT 850MB THETA-E
AXIS HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETORGRADE W BACK OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.

THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  75 100  75  99 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  76 101  76 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  74 100  74  99 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  75  99  74  98 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
     137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 262107
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DINMINSHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUT MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK
IN 1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY
JUST TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDENT 850MB THETA-E
AXIS HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETORGRADE W BACK OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.

THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  75 100  75  99 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  76 101  76 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  74 100  74  99 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  75  99  74  98 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
     137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.

THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102  78 100  78 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  98  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  78 /  10   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  20   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.

THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102  78 100  78 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  98  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  78 /  10   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  20   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.

THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102  78 100  78 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  98  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  78 /  10   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  20   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N TX AND LA TO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78  99 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  75  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

VIII.




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N TX AND LA TO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78  99 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  75  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

VIII.




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N TX AND LA TO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78  99 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  75  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

VIII.





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N TX AND LA TO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78  99 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  75  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

VIII.





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261053
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
553 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THE 12Z TAF PD. SOME
VERY PATCHY BR/FG IS BEING OBSERVED AT KMLU...LIKELY DUE TO
RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY UNTIL SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
AFFECT KMLU/KLFK...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE OFFING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID
SOUTH REGION. THUS..THE RESULT IS MORE OF THE SAME FOR OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND THE BEST ODDS TODAY BEING
ACROSS OUR FAR ERN/SRN SECTIONS A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE ERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE INTENSE HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...A
VERY DRY MONTH AREA WIDE AFTER A RATHER WET FIRST HALF OF 2015.

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY MINUS
OUR COUNTIES IN DEEP E TX AND THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF NE TX WHERE
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT ENOUGH TO FALL
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS ALMOST A GIVEN AT THIS POINT
THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON AN EXTENSION FOR NOW PENDING
RESULTS FROM LATER TODAY.

SOME RELIEF IS IN SIGHT LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE SW. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE BNDRY SHIFTS SOUTH...
ENCOUNTERING AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW AND STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO NEAR THE GULF COAST
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER OUR FAR SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. TEMPERATURES
WILL EASE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ANOTHER
EWRD EXPANSION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  98  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR 100  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261053
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
553 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THE 12Z TAF PD. SOME
VERY PATCHY BR/FG IS BEING OBSERVED AT KMLU...LIKELY DUE TO
RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY UNTIL SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
AFFECT KMLU/KLFK...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE OFFING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID
SOUTH REGION. THUS..THE RESULT IS MORE OF THE SAME FOR OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND THE BEST ODDS TODAY BEING
ACROSS OUR FAR ERN/SRN SECTIONS A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE ERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE INTENSE HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...A
VERY DRY MONTH AREA WIDE AFTER A RATHER WET FIRST HALF OF 2015.

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY MINUS
OUR COUNTIES IN DEEP E TX AND THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF NE TX WHERE
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT ENOUGH TO FALL
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS ALMOST A GIVEN AT THIS POINT
THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON AN EXTENSION FOR NOW PENDING
RESULTS FROM LATER TODAY.

SOME RELIEF IS IN SIGHT LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE SW. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE BNDRY SHIFTS SOUTH...
ENCOUNTERING AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW AND STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO NEAR THE GULF COAST
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER OUR FAR SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. TEMPERATURES
WILL EASE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ANOTHER
EWRD EXPANSION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  98  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR 100  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261053
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
553 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THE 12Z TAF PD. SOME
VERY PATCHY BR/FG IS BEING OBSERVED AT KMLU...LIKELY DUE TO
RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY UNTIL SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
AFFECT KMLU/KLFK...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE OFFING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID
SOUTH REGION. THUS..THE RESULT IS MORE OF THE SAME FOR OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND THE BEST ODDS TODAY BEING
ACROSS OUR FAR ERN/SRN SECTIONS A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE ERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE INTENSE HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...A
VERY DRY MONTH AREA WIDE AFTER A RATHER WET FIRST HALF OF 2015.

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY MINUS
OUR COUNTIES IN DEEP E TX AND THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF NE TX WHERE
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT ENOUGH TO FALL
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS ALMOST A GIVEN AT THIS POINT
THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON AN EXTENSION FOR NOW PENDING
RESULTS FROM LATER TODAY.

SOME RELIEF IS IN SIGHT LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE SW. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE BNDRY SHIFTS SOUTH...
ENCOUNTERING AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW AND STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO NEAR THE GULF COAST
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER OUR FAR SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. TEMPERATURES
WILL EASE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ANOTHER
EWRD EXPANSION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  98  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR 100  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260923
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
423 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE OFFING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID
SOUTH REGION. THUS..THE RESULT IS MORE OF THE SAME FOR OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND THE BEST ODDS TODAY BEING
ACROSS OUR FAR ERN/SRN SECTIONS A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE ERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE INTENSE HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...A
VERY DRY MONTH AREA WIDE AFTER A RATHER WET FIRST HALF OF 2015.

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY MINUS
OUR COUNTIES IN DEEP E TX AND THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF NE TX WHERE
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT ENOUGH TO FALL
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS ALMOST A GIVEN AT THIS POINT
THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON AN EXTENSION FOR NOW PENDING
RESULTS FROM LATER TODAY.

SOME RELIEF IS IN SIGHT LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE SW. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE BNDRY SHIFTS SOUTH...
ENCOUNTERING AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW AND STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO NEAR THE GULF COAST
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER OUR FAR SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. TEMPERATURES
WILL EASE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ANOTHER
EWRD EXPANSION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  98  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR 100  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260923
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
423 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE OFFING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID
SOUTH REGION. THUS..THE RESULT IS MORE OF THE SAME FOR OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND THE BEST ODDS TODAY BEING
ACROSS OUR FAR ERN/SRN SECTIONS A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE ERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE INTENSE HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...A
VERY DRY MONTH AREA WIDE AFTER A RATHER WET FIRST HALF OF 2015.

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY MINUS
OUR COUNTIES IN DEEP E TX AND THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF NE TX WHERE
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT ENOUGH TO FALL
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS ALMOST A GIVEN AT THIS POINT
THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON AN EXTENSION FOR NOW PENDING
RESULTS FROM LATER TODAY.

SOME RELIEF IS IN SIGHT LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE SW. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE BNDRY SHIFTS SOUTH...
ENCOUNTERING AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW AND STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO NEAR THE GULF COAST
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER OUR FAR SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. TEMPERATURES
WILL EASE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ANOTHER
EWRD EXPANSION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  98  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR 100  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260923
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
423 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE OFFING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID
SOUTH REGION. THUS..THE RESULT IS MORE OF THE SAME FOR OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND THE BEST ODDS TODAY BEING
ACROSS OUR FAR ERN/SRN SECTIONS A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE ERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BUT THE MAIN STORY FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE INTENSE HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...A
VERY DRY MONTH AREA WIDE AFTER A RATHER WET FIRST HALF OF 2015.

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY MINUS
OUR COUNTIES IN DEEP E TX AND THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF NE TX WHERE
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT ENOUGH TO FALL
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS ALMOST A GIVEN AT THIS POINT
THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON AN EXTENSION FOR NOW PENDING
RESULTS FROM LATER TODAY.

SOME RELIEF IS IN SIGHT LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE SW. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE BNDRY SHIFTS SOUTH...
ENCOUNTERING AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW AND STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO NEAR THE GULF COAST
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER OUR FAR SRN
SECTIONS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. TEMPERATURES
WILL EASE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ANOTHER
EWRD EXPANSION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  98  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  99  76  99  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR 100  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
GGG 101  78 100  78 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  98  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AS WELL AS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. REMNANT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION MAY AFFECT KELD/KMLU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
AREA OF EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78  99 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78  99 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  75  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AS WELL AS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. REMNANT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION MAY AFFECT KELD/KMLU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
AREA OF EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78  99 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78  99 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  75  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AS WELL AS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. REMNANT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION MAY AFFECT KELD/KMLU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
AREA OF EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78  99 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78  99 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  75  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260309
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
AREA OF EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. KTXK/KELD/KMLU SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITES
AFFECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AREAWIDE. SFC
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ESPECIALLY
AT KTXK/KSHV/KELD/KMLU BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  76  99 /  10  20  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  78 100  78  99 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  78 101  78 100 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  75  98  75  98 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260309
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
AREA OF EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. KTXK/KELD/KMLU SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITES
AFFECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AREAWIDE. SFC
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ESPECIALLY
AT KTXK/KSHV/KELD/KMLU BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  76  99 /  10  20  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  78 100  78  99 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  78 101  78 100 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  75  98  75  98 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. KTXK/KELD/KMLU SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITES
AFFECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AREAWIDE. SFC
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ESPECIALLY
AT KTXK/KSHV/KELD/KMLU BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  78 101  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  98  75  98 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. KTXK/KELD/KMLU SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITES
AFFECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AREAWIDE. SFC
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ESPECIALLY
AT KTXK/KSHV/KELD/KMLU BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  78 101  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  98  75  98 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. KTXK/KELD/KMLU SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITES
AFFECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AREAWIDE. SFC
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ESPECIALLY
AT KTXK/KSHV/KELD/KMLU BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  78 101  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  98  75  98 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. KTXK/KELD/KMLU SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITES
AFFECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AREAWIDE. SFC
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ESPECIALLY
AT KTXK/KSHV/KELD/KMLU BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  78 101  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  98  75  98 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 252100
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING TODAY WHERE WE WERE VOID OF CU DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TAF SITES LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SC AR THIS MORNING IS
ORIENTED ALONG A 700MB THETAE AXIS WHICH IS FCST TO BACKDOOR
ITSELF INTO SW AR AND N LA LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  78 101  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  98  75  98 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 252100
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING TODAY WHERE WE WERE VOID OF CU DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TAF SITES LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SC AR THIS MORNING IS
ORIENTED ALONG A 700MB THETAE AXIS WHICH IS FCST TO BACKDOOR
ITSELF INTO SW AR AND N LA LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  78 101  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  98  75  98 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 251659
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING TODAY WHERE WE WERE VOID OF CU DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TAF SITES LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SC AR THIS MORNING IS
ORIENTED ALONG A 700MB THETAE AXIS WHICH IS FCST TO BACKDOOR
ITSELF INTO SW AR AND N LA LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER NCNTRL AR HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG
HEATING ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MOST LOCALES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS OF 16Z. AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS /PER
THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMP IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 16Z TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH H850
RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN HOTTER AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT PERTAIN TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AND
SCNTRL AR INTO CNTRL MS/SRN AL.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED OVER DALLAS COUNTY AR THIS
MORNING NEAR THIS BNDRY...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS DEPICTING A NW
TO SE H850 THETA-E AXIS NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY SAG MORE SE ACROSS EXTREME SRN AR INTO NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON. PW/S DO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH STRONG HEATING AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-
SOUTH REGION. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO RUNS DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE
AREAS...THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT DRY AIR MIXING /AS OBSERVED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/ RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SE
OK/SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX/N LA...BUT DID INCREASE HEAT INDICES
SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR/N LA AS THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ADDRESS A
POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION AS LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  98  78  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  98  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  98  76  98  76 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  99  77 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  98  75  98  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

15/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 251659
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING TODAY WHERE WE WERE VOID OF CU DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TAF SITES LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SC AR THIS MORNING IS
ORIENTED ALONG A 700MB THETAE AXIS WHICH IS FCST TO BACKDOOR
ITSELF INTO SW AR AND N LA LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER NCNTRL AR HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG
HEATING ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MOST LOCALES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS OF 16Z. AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS /PER
THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMP IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 16Z TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH H850
RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN HOTTER AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT PERTAIN TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AND
SCNTRL AR INTO CNTRL MS/SRN AL.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED OVER DALLAS COUNTY AR THIS
MORNING NEAR THIS BNDRY...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS DEPICTING A NW
TO SE H850 THETA-E AXIS NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY SAG MORE SE ACROSS EXTREME SRN AR INTO NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON. PW/S DO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH STRONG HEATING AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-
SOUTH REGION. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO RUNS DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE
AREAS...THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT DRY AIR MIXING /AS OBSERVED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/ RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SE
OK/SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX/N LA...BUT DID INCREASE HEAT INDICES
SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR/N LA AS THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ADDRESS A
POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION AS LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  98  78  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  98  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  98  76  98  76 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  99  77 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  98  75  98  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

15/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 251659
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING TODAY WHERE WE WERE VOID OF CU DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TAF SITES LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SC AR THIS MORNING IS
ORIENTED ALONG A 700MB THETAE AXIS WHICH IS FCST TO BACKDOOR
ITSELF INTO SW AR AND N LA LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER NCNTRL AR HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG
HEATING ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MOST LOCALES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS OF 16Z. AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS /PER
THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMP IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 16Z TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH H850
RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN HOTTER AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT PERTAIN TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AND
SCNTRL AR INTO CNTRL MS/SRN AL.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED OVER DALLAS COUNTY AR THIS
MORNING NEAR THIS BNDRY...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS DEPICTING A NW
TO SE H850 THETA-E AXIS NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY SAG MORE SE ACROSS EXTREME SRN AR INTO NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON. PW/S DO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH STRONG HEATING AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-
SOUTH REGION. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO RUNS DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE
AREAS...THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT DRY AIR MIXING /AS OBSERVED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/ RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SE
OK/SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX/N LA...BUT DID INCREASE HEAT INDICES
SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR/N LA AS THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ADDRESS A
POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION AS LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  98  78  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  98  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  98  76  98  76 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  99  77 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  98  75  98  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

15/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 251632
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER NCNTRL AR HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG
HEATING ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MOST LOCALES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS OF 16Z. AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS /PER
THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMP IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 16Z TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH H850
RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN HOTTER AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT PERTAIN TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AND
SCNTRL AR INTO CNTRL MS/SRN AL.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED OVER DALLAS COUNTY AR THIS
MORNING NEAR THIS BNDRY...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS DEPICTING A NW
TO SE H850 THETA-E AXIS NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY SAG MORE SE ACROSS EXTREME SRN AR INTO NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON. PW/S DO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH STRONG HEATING AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-
SOUTH REGION. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO RUNS DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE
AREAS...THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT DRY AIR MIXING /AS OBSERVED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/ RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SE
OK/SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX/N LA...BUT DID INCREASE HEAT INDICES
SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR/N LA AS THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ADDRESS A
POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION AS LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  98  78  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  98  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  98  76  98  76 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  99  77 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  98  75  98  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 251632
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER NCNTRL AR HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG
HEATING ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MOST LOCALES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS OF 16Z. AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS /PER
THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMP IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 16Z TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH H850
RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN HOTTER AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT PERTAIN TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AND
SCNTRL AR INTO CNTRL MS/SRN AL.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED OVER DALLAS COUNTY AR THIS
MORNING NEAR THIS BNDRY...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS DEPICTING A NW
TO SE H850 THETA-E AXIS NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY SAG MORE SE ACROSS EXTREME SRN AR INTO NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON. PW/S DO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH STRONG HEATING AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-
SOUTH REGION. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO RUNS DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE
AREAS...THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT DRY AIR MIXING /AS OBSERVED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/ RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SE
OK/SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX/N LA...BUT DID INCREASE HEAT INDICES
SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR/N LA AS THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ADDRESS A
POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION AS LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  98  78  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  98  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  98  76  98  76 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  99  77 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  98  75  98  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 251057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS 12Z TAF PD. ASIDE
FROM SOME HIGH CI BLOWOFF FROM FRIDAY NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER NRN
AR...WE SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW AT 5-10 KTS...BUT A FEW HOURS OF VRBL WIND
DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION MAKES ITS WAY SWD TODAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER RIDGE PLACEMENT THIS MORNING BUT
DO EXPECT THE CENTER AXIS TO BUILD CLOSER TO OUR REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...LIKELY PROPELLING TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. BEFORE WE DISCUSS THE HEAT ANY
FURTHER...DO WANT TO NOTE ADVANCING CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WHICH HAS MANAGED TO MOVE INTO S AR AND N CNTRL LA.
ALTHOUGH IT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH ADDITIONAL SWD MOVEMENT...
IT MAY BRIEFLY CURTAIL TEMPERATURE RISE JUST AFTER SUNRISE BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT THEREAFTER. THUS...THE HEAT ADVISORY IS SET
TO TAKE EFFECT AT 10 AM AND RUN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL
OF SW AR...SE OK...N LA AND SOME OF ITS BORDERING NE TX COUNTIES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME WITH A POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN E
TX. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR NIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
OVER OUR FAR ERN SECTIONS WHERE THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS CONVECTION RIDES AROUND THE NRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
EAST ON SUNDAY.

THE HEAT WILL ONLY CONTINUE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO CHANGES
ON THE HORIZON UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AND RETROGRADE AS AN UPPER TROF DROPS SWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONTAL
BNDRY SWD INTO OUR REGION...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE RETURNING AND THEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  78 101  78 /   0  10  10  10
MLU  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  98  73  98  75 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  99  77  99  77 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  98  76  98  76 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 100  77 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  98  75  98  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

&&

$$

12




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