000
FXUS64 KSHV 222004
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 60S TONIGHT...NEAR 70 IN LUFKIN.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH INTRUSION OF
LOW CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK...FOG FORMATION MAY BE LIMITED. FOR THIS
REASON...HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG IN THE FORECAST.
ON THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TO ALLOW FOR HOT CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WET SOILS FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BY 23/16Z. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 91 69 85 64 / 10 10 20 20 10
MLU 66 90 67 82 59 / 10 10 20 20 10
DEQ 57 85 63 79 59 / 10 20 20 20 10
TXK 61 86 65 80 61 / 10 20 20 20 10
ELD 60 88 63 80 57 / 10 20 20 20 10
TYR 66 90 70 88 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
GGG 65 90 69 86 66 / 10 10 20 20 10
LFK 69 91 69 89 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/09/
000
FXUS64 KSHV 221500
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS FORECAST
TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. DESPITE MORNING CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWING ERODING BUT SOME TERMINALS MAY STILL BE
EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS AT THE START OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
WET SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SOME DISSIPATE BEFORE
23/18Z. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS E
ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS MORNING...WITH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING DRIER AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE CONVECTION OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING RAINFALL TRENDS OVER THE
SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THROUGH 12Z...ALTHOUGH THE KSHV 88-D LOOPS
AND SFC OBS REFLECT VERY WEAK ECHOS IN A NE TO SW BAND FROM SW AR INTO
NE TX...INDICATIVE OF THE 850MB TROUGH POSITION WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY -RA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PARENT AXIS. WHILE THE CONVECTION
HAS PUSHED A RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BNDRY S INTO SRN LA THIS MORNING...A
WEAK SFC FRONT THAT DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE SFC PRESSURE ANALYSIS BUT
RATHER IN THE SFC THETA-E PLOT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WRN AR
INTO THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...NEAR OR JUST W OF THE 850MB TROUGH
POSITION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE SRN
AND ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WHERE THETA-E RIDGING MAY ENHANCE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FOR WIDELY SCT REDEVELOPMENT.
ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE VERY
LOW STRATUS SHIELD OVER SE OK/ECNTRL TX...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY
FG TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BANK AND AREAS TO THE W WHERE THE SKY HAS
CLEARED. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FG WORDING THROUGH MIDMORNING TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...WITH
THIS WEAK SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT E TO NEAR THE MID-SOUTH REGION
SW INTO NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. DID
RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BNDRY...AS AFTERNOON HEATING MAY YIELD ENOUGH FORCING IN A MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS SFC FRONT MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK N OVER E TX/N LA
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SCT CU TO REDEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH WHAT
WILL BE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AHEAD
OF THE ERN SD CLOSED LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST. THE WRN PLAINS RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLIFY N TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH PROGRESSES E THROUGH
THE OH/TN VALLIES...WITH A CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO WOBBLE OVER THE PAC
NW. THE NAM REMAINS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION ALONG A SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE MID
AND UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY OF NW TX/SW OK...WITH A SWRLY 20-30KT LLJ
MAINTAINING THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS SE OVER SRN OK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OK/SW AR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION
THAT MAY DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS FARTHER E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD
SEE TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR 90 THURSDAY ALONG/S OF I-20 NEAR THE
RESIDUAL SFC FRONT...BEFORE A WEAK COOL FRONT BEGINS TO BACKDOOR SW
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD TAPER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS IT STALLS FROM CNTRL OK INTO ECNTRL TX.
IT/S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A
WEAK VORTICITY PERTURBATION WITHIN THE NW FLOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
FRIDAY...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...WITH THIS VORTICITY AXIS DRIFTING SE ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITHIN THE RIDGING ALOFT. DID INSERT MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND A WEAK SSW RETURN FLOW OVER THESE AREAS MAY YIELD ISOLATED
CONVECTION. BY SUNDAY...THIS VORTICITY AXIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN SHUNTED
FAR ENOUGH E INTO THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SUCH THAT THE
FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR 90 LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA...AND SRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
RH/S.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DEPARTING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...LEAVING
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES. SOME FG POSSIBLE ACROSS E
TX TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS STRATUS IS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN TO VFR BEFORE
NOON TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AND LIGHTER
WINDS...PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 23/12Z. /20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 64 91 68 85 / 20 10 10 10 20
MLU 87 63 90 65 83 / 30 10 10 10 20
DEQ 83 59 85 63 79 / 0 0 20 10 20
TXK 84 61 87 65 80 / 10 0 20 10 20
ELD 85 61 88 63 80 / 20 0 20 10 20
TYR 86 65 90 69 85 / 0 10 10 10 20
GGG 86 65 90 68 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
LFK 89 68 91 69 89 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/09/09
000
FXUS64 KSHV 220942
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
442 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS E
ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS MORNING...WITH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING DRIER AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE CONVECTION OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING RAINFALL TRENDS OVER THE
SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THROUGH 12Z...ALTHOUGH THE KSHV 88-D LOOPS
AND SFC OBS REFLECT VERY WEAK ECHOS IN A NE TO SW BAND FROM SW AR INTO
NE TX...INDICATIVE OF THE 850MB TROUGH POSITION WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY -RA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PARENT AXIS. WHILE THE CONVECTION
HAS PUSHED A RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BNDRY S INTO SRN LA THIS MORNING...A
WEAK SFC FRONT THAT DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE SFC PRESSURE ANALYSIS BUT
RATHER IN THE SFC THETA-E PLOT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WRN AR
INTO THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...NEAR OR JUST W OF THE 850MB TROUGH
POSITION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE SRN
AND ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WHERE THETA-E RIDGING MAY ENHANCE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FOR WIDELY SCT REDEVELOPMENT.
ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE VERY
LOW STRATUS SHIELD OVER SE OK/ECNTRL TX...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY
FG TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BANK AND AREAS TO THE W WHERE THE SKY HAS
CLEARED. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FG WORDING THROUGH MIDMORNING TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...WITH
THIS WEAK SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT E TO NEAR THE MID-SOUTH REGION
SW INTO NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. DID
RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BNDRY...AS AFTERNOON HEATING MAY YIELD ENOUGH FORCING IN A MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS SFC FRONT MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK N OVER E TX/N LA
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SCT CU TO REDEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH WHAT
WILL BE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TODAY AHEAD
OF THE ERN SD CLOSED LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST. THE WRN PLAINS RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLIFY N TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH PROGRESSES E THROUGH
THE OH/TN VALLIES...WITH A CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO WOBBLE OVER THE PAC
NW. THE NAM REMAINS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION ALONG A SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE MID
AND UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY OF NW TX/SW OK...WITH A SWRLY 20-30KT LLJ
MAINTAINING THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS SE OVER SRN OK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OK/SW AR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION
THAT MAY DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS FARTHER E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD
SEE TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR 90 THURSDAY ALONG/S OF I-20 NEAR THE
RESIDUAL SFC FRONT...BEFORE A WEAK COOL FRONT BEGINS TO BACKDOOR SW
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD TAPER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS IT STALLS FROM CNTRL OK INTO ECNTRL TX.
IT/S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A
WEAK VORTICITY PERTURBATION WITHIN THE NW FLOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
FRIDAY...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...WITH THIS VORTICITY AXIS DRIFTING SE ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITHIN THE RIDGING ALOFT. DID INSERT MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND A WEAK SSW RETURN FLOW OVER THESE AREAS MAY YIELD ISOLATED
CONVECTION. BY SUNDAY...THIS VORTICITY AXIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN SHUNTED
FAR ENOUGH E INTO THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SUCH THAT THE
FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR 90 LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA...AND SRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
RH/S.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DEPARTING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...LEAVING
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES. SOME FG POSSIBLE ACROSS E
TX TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS STRATUS IS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN TO VFR BEFORE
NOON TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AND LIGHTER
WINDS...PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 23/12Z. /20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 64 91 68 85 / 20 5 10 10 20
MLU 87 63 90 65 83 / 30 5 10 10 20
DEQ 83 59 85 63 79 / 0 0 20 10 20
TXK 84 61 87 65 80 / 10 0 20 10 20
ELD 85 61 88 63 80 / 20 0 20 10 20
TYR 86 65 90 69 85 / 0 5 10 10 20
GGG 86 65 90 68 85 / 10 5 10 10 20
LFK 89 68 91 69 89 / 20 5 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/20
000
FXUS64 KSHV 220250
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA SHORTLY. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FOLLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST TEXAS ON UPDATE.
THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS ISSUED.
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS DOWN. LOWEST READINGS FOR THE NIGHT MAY ALREADY HAVE
OCCURRED IN SEVERAL AREAS DUE TO THE COOLING FROM THE RAIN...SO
FORECAST WILL BE FOR MAINLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU AND HAS
PRODUCED WIDESPREAD 40-50 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED TO THE SW OF
THE REGION...AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE STRONG. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS
OUR REGION. EXPECT VRBL WINDS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND N WINDS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
FROPA...AS RAIN ENDS FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 62 86 65 91 69 / 60 30 10 10 10
MLU 66 86 63 90 66 / 80 60 10 20 20
DEQ 60 83 57 88 62 / 20 10 10 20 20
TXK 60 86 60 88 65 / 30 10 10 10 10
ELD 61 84 59 89 63 / 70 30 10 20 20
TYR 63 87 65 89 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
GGG 64 86 65 90 69 / 40 20 10 10 10
LFK 70 89 68 91 69 / 70 30 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/12
000
FXUS64 KSHV 212127
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING EAST FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS. APPROACHING
TO THE WEST IS ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF WEST
TEXAS. THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW AND SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO THE DRY LINE INTERSECTION NORTH OF BIG BEND. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS...
DEADLY LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS STORMS TRAIN OVER SOME OF THE SAME LOCATIONS. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR 7 AM CDT THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
NEAR A HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA AND LUFKIN
TEXAS LINE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH STORMS DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS UPPER SUPPORT AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUE OFF TO
THE EAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
NORTH ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY FOR LATE WEEK KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WILL KEEP LOW END
POPS IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR THE LATE PART OF
THE EXTENDED. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-30
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WSW IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EVENTUALLY TO CONGEAL INTO A
SINGLE COMPLEX AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF I-20. A SECOND
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN OK SWD TOWARDS THE DFW
METROPLEX AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COMPLEX WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A KLFK-KASL-MAGNOLIA AR
LINE AROUND THE START OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT DETERIORATING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTION. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AND THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION MAY
BEGIN TO OUTRUN IT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WRN FRINGES OF THE AREA AFTER
22/06Z. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PRECIP
SHOULD SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 86 65 91 69 / 80 30 10 10 10
MLU 69 86 63 90 66 / 80 60 10 20 20
DEQ 58 83 57 88 62 / 80 10 10 20 20
TXK 65 86 60 88 65 / 80 10 10 10 10
ELD 65 84 59 89 63 / 80 30 10 20 20
TYR 65 87 65 89 70 / 80 10 10 10 10
GGG 65 86 65 90 69 / 80 20 10 10 10
LFK 69 89 68 91 69 / 80 30 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/09
000
FXUS64 KSHV 211948
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
248 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND SPREAD OVER
OTHER AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED
HIGHS THAT INCLUDE TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 69 86 67 88 67 / 70 80 30 10 10 10
MLU 89 69 86 67 88 65 / 50 80 60 10 10 10
DEQ 80 63 86 65 86 64 / 80 80 10 10 10 10
TXK 86 66 86 65 87 64 / 80 80 10 10 10 10
ELD 88 68 86 65 87 64 / 70 80 30 10 10 10
TYR 87 67 86 68 89 69 / 70 80 10 10 10 10
GGG 88 67 86 68 89 68 / 70 80 20 10 10 10
LFK 90 70 89 69 90 69 / 40 80 30 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
000
FXUS64 KSHV 211909
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
209 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 205 VALID UNTIL 10 PM CDT...
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 205 VALID
UNTIL 10 PM CDT AND MADE ADJUSTMENT TO THE RAIN CHANCES AND AREAS
OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TWEAKS
IN THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. /06/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SE OK.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS LINE.
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A LARGE COMPLEX AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TIMING...TSTMS
COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 19Z...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 22/06Z. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE LATE IN THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 69 86 67 88 / 70 80 30 10 10
MLU 89 69 86 67 88 / 50 70 60 10 10
DEQ 80 63 86 65 86 / 80 80 10 10 10
TXK 86 66 86 65 87 / 80 80 10 10 10
ELD 88 68 86 65 87 / 70 80 30 10 10
TYR 87 67 86 68 89 / 70 80 10 10 10
GGG 88 67 86 68 89 / 70 80 20 10 10
LFK 90 70 89 69 90 / 40 70 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
000
FXUS64 KSHV 211646
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TWEAKS
IN THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SE OK.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS LINE.
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A LARGE COMPLEX AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TIMING...TSTMS
COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 19Z...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 22/06Z. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE LATE IN THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 69 86 67 88 / 50 70 30 10 10
MLU 89 69 86 67 88 / 40 70 60 10 10
DEQ 80 63 86 65 86 / 70 70 10 10 10
TXK 86 66 86 65 87 / 70 70 10 10 10
ELD 88 68 86 65 87 / 50 70 30 10 10
TYR 87 67 86 68 89 / 60 70 10 10 10
GGG 88 67 86 68 89 / 50 70 20 10 10
LFK 90 70 89 69 90 / 30 60 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/09
000
FXUS64 KSHV 210955
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
455 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE FACT THAT A SFC OBS
OUTAGE HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING SUCH THAT IT HAS
BEEN HARD TO MAKE A MESO-ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...SOME OBS HAVE BEEN
TRICKLING IN RECENTLY...WHICH REVEALS THAT A W-E OUTFLOW BNDRY REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME N AND NE TX JUST S OF THE RED RIVER TO JUST W
OF TXK AS OF 09Z. SFC CAPES S OF THIS BNDRY REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE...RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG...YET THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER WELL N OF IT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS IN VC OF A
WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY EXTENDING FROM SW OK INTO THE NE PART OF THE
STATE INTO SW MO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT NEAR THIS SFC BNDRY...WITH THE WRN AR CONVECTION NOW GUSTING OUT
AS IT PROPAGATES E...WITH CONVECTION NEAR THESE 2 BNDRYS BEING FED BY
A 30-40KT SWRLY LLJ. THE AR CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT
HAS RESULTED IN A RECENT 45KT WIND GUST AT MEZ...WITH SCT CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND NRN HOWARD COUNTY
AR. CURRENT TRAJECTORIES WOULD FAVOR THIS W-E BNDRY EXTENDING FROM
THESE AREAS E INTO CNTRL AR...WITH THE BNDRY JUST S OF THE RED RIVER
POSSIBLY DRIFTING BACK N A TAD LATER THIS MORNING ONCE THIS AIR MASS
BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE. HAVE CARRIED MENTION OF SVR FOR THE EXTREME NW
ZONES THIS MORNING IN VC OF THESE BNDRIES...BUT BELIEVE THAT MAIN SHOW
WILL AWAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ONCE THE AIR MASS TO
THE S BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
2500-3000+ J/KG OF MLCAPES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S WITHIN A VERY MOIST SECTOR CHARACTERIZED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRYS WILL COME INTO PLAY
LATER TODAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER CNTRL
NM...ORIGINATING FROM THE NE SD/SE ND CLOSED LOW...PROGRESSES E INTO
THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THE PROGS HAVE THIS TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE SETTING UP FROM NE
TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR...THE SAME AREAS THAT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
UNDER STRONG INSULATION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-7.8 C/KM
WILL ONLY ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BULK
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG NEAR 40-50KTS...SUCH THAT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL STILL APPEAR
THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE INCREASED THE
0-1KM SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES FROM 24 HOURS AGO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...SUCH THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THIS CONVECTION...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND PROGRESS ESE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT.
BUT PRIOR TO THIS OCCURRING...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THESE
MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR WILL TRAIN GIVEN THE
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL FOCUS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WHERE QPF/S RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. HAVE FOCUSED HEAVY
RAINFALL WORDING OVER THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT SHIFTING ESE TONIGHT ONCE THE MCS BEGINS TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A 35-40KT SWRLY LLJ CONTINUES TO FEED THIS
SYSTEM ONCE IT BEGINS TO GUST OUT...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD OCCUR LATE AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE
BNDRY LYR COOLING.
THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE CNTRL OK STATIONARY BNDRY ACTUALLY
BEGINNING TO NUDGE SE IN WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION. THIS BNDRY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER E TX AND NCNTRL LA...BUT
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN IN WAKE OF THE
PRIMARY TROUGH PASSAGE ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT. FARTHER W...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY N ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE PAC
NW CLOSED LOW...AND THE TROUGHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF VORTICITY
PERTURBATIONS DRIFTING SE INTO AR FROM OK...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS
THURSDAY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SW INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH
MAY FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS BNDRY SHOULD DRIFT W OF THE AREA
SATURDAY /FROM CNTRL OK INTO TX/...THUS WARM BUT LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. SHOULD START TO SEE A RETURN IN HOTTER/MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RE-
ESTABLISHED. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGING ALOFT LINGERS.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY STRATUS LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD
SEE MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR BEFORE NOON...WITH TS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
GET UNDERWAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULDNT AFFECT TERMINALS
INITIALLY...ONLY CARRIED TSRA AT KTXK AT 22/00Z WITH VCTS ELSEWHERE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE NW AFTER 22/00Z AND WILL
LIKELY STILL BE OVER KMLU/KELD AT 22/12Z. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND TURN TO THE NW
WITH FROPA AFTER 22/08Z FOR WESTERN TERMINALS...WITH KSHV/KLFK
FOLLOWING SUIT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. /20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 69 86 67 88 / 50 70 30 10 10
MLU 89 69 86 67 88 / 30 70 60 10 10
DEQ 80 63 86 65 86 / 70 70 10 5 10
TXK 86 66 86 65 87 / 70 70 10 5 10
ELD 88 68 86 65 87 / 50 70 30 5 10
TYR 87 67 86 68 89 / 60 70 10 10 10
GGG 88 67 86 68 89 / 50 70 20 10 10
LFK 90 70 89 69 90 / 20 60 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/20
000
FXUS64 KSHV 210649 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE JUST SENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CANCELLATION OF TOR
WATCH 195 FOR SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE N AND NW ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
OK...AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR NW ZONES.
WILL ADDRESS THE SVR THREAT IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING.
15
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE STILL MESOCYCLONES...EXTENDING FROM NW AR INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SHV SHOWS A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION BUT THAT CAP
IS OBVIOUSLY WEAKER ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. NOT SURE ON THE AMOUNT OF
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER
UPDATE MAY BE FORTHCOMING IF A FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
BECOMES REALIZED. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY SENT...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN OK/N TX CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...AND
MAY AFFECT KTXK LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS 06Z-09Z...AND LIFT ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AND SLY WINDS PICK UP AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD S AND E DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 69 86 68 89 / 50 70 40 20 20
MLU 90 70 85 67 89 / 30 60 60 20 20
DEQ 82 65 86 65 87 / 70 70 10 20 20
TXK 85 67 86 67 88 / 70 70 20 20 20
ELD 87 68 86 66 88 / 50 70 40 20 20
TYR 87 69 86 69 90 / 50 70 30 10 10
GGG 88 69 86 69 90 / 50 70 30 10 10
LFK 91 71 89 69 90 / 30 60 60 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS64 KSHV 210122
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
822 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR TORNADO WATCH #195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z FOR
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER AND
HOWARD COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
STILL SEEING A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ARE STILL MESOCYCLONES...EXTENDING FROM NW AR INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SHV SHOWS A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION BUT THAT CAP
IS OBVIOUSLY WEAKER ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. NOT SURE ON THE AMOUNT OF
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER
UPDATE MAY BE FORTHCOMING IF A FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
BECOMES REALIZED. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY SENT...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN OK/N TX CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...AND
MAY AFFECT KTXK LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS 06Z-09Z...AND LIFT ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AND SLY WINDS PICK UP AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD S AND E DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 88 69 86 68 / 20 50 70 40 20
MLU 73 90 70 85 67 / 10 30 60 60 20
DEQ 70 82 65 86 65 / 50 70 70 10 20
TXK 72 85 67 86 67 / 50 70 70 20 20
ELD 71 87 68 86 66 / 20 50 70 40 20
TYR 72 87 69 86 69 / 20 50 70 30 10
GGG 72 88 69 86 69 / 20 50 70 30 10
LFK 72 91 71 89 69 / 10 30 60 60 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXUS64 KSHV 202129
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
DRY LINE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE WINDS
WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS JUST BELOW THE
LAKE WIND CRITERIA FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING
AROUND THE BASE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AROUND A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTA/S WILL SEND SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATER DURING THE NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND INTO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO OVER ONE AND ONE HALF TO NEAR ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG LLJ FEEDING INTO THE AREA EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS THAT REACH SEVERE
LEVELS OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER IN
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION HAS BEEN
PLACED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. THE
UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL OK/N TX MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTION BEFORE THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. /096/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 88 69 86 68 / 20 50 70 40 20
MLU 71 90 70 85 67 / 10 30 60 60 20
DEQ 70 82 65 86 65 / 50 70 70 10 20
TXK 71 85 67 86 67 / 50 70 70 20 20
ELD 71 87 68 86 66 / 20 50 70 40 20
TYR 72 87 69 86 69 / 20 50 70 30 10
GGG 72 88 69 86 69 / 20 50 70 30 10
LFK 72 91 71 89 69 / 10 30 60 60 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06/09
000
FXUS64 KSHV 201601
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1101 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SKY COVER AND A FEW DEW POINT AND RELATED PARAMETERS...MADE
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MOST TERMINALS SHOULD
BE VFR BY THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SRLY WINDS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS. MORE
LOW STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CONVECTION MAY AFFECT SE OK AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS IN EXTREME SW
AR/NE TX AFTER 21/06Z. TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 73 88 68 86 / 10 10 50 70 30
MLU 91 72 89 69 85 / 10 10 30 60 50
DEQ 89 69 81 63 86 / 10 50 60 70 10
TXK 89 71 84 66 86 / 10 30 60 70 20
ELD 90 71 86 67 86 / 10 10 50 70 30
TYR 91 72 86 68 86 / 10 20 50 70 20
GGG 91 72 87 68 86 / 10 20 50 70 20
LFK 92 72 90 71 89 / 10 10 20 60 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06/09
000
FXUS64 KSHV 200954
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
454 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A 40KT SSW LLJ EVIDENT IN THE KSHV 88-D VAD HAS ADVECTED EXTENSIVE
AREAS OF STRATUS N INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAS ALSO NOT
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NCNTRL LA WHERE
09Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID DAY AS THIS CLOUD SHIELD LIFTS/SCATTERS OUT BY LATE
MORNING...EVEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK
BORDER SINKS S INTO NW TX AND DEEPENS WITH HEATING. WINDS WERE
MARGINAL FOR THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY...AND THIS SHOULD AGAIN BE
THE CASE TODAY...THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR E TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR/WRN LA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE THAT MAX TEMPS TODAY COULD BE A TAD WARMER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY MILD START TO THIS
MORNING...SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE AND THUS HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUR CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
SD/NE...WITH THIS LOW EXPECTED TO WOBBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX ROTATING ENE ACROSS OK THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IGNITE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL OK/WCNTRL LA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE OK CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO A MCS LATER THIS
EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES ENE INTO ERN OK. CAN/T ARGUE WITH THE
SPC MODERATE RISK JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION PROGGED TO
EXPAND MORE SE INTO SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR AFTER 06Z ALONG A 40-50KT
SWRLY LLJ. DESPITE THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR NW
ZONES TONIGHT...MODERATE SFC BASED CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD
PERSIST NW OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THUS...HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION TO THE EXTREME NW ZONES
LATE AS THIS CONVECTION COULD REMAIN STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE/S NO DOUBT THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
KEY TO INITIATION OF CONVECTION TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AS THE PRIMARY
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN UT/ERN NV THIS MORNING SWINGS E INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...PERSISTENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD
MAINTAIN SCT CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG/NW OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THAT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT HEATING
OVER THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRYS MAY COME INTO
PLAY ESPECIALLY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING ONCE THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM NE TX INTO
SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE NAM/GFS CONSISTENT IN GENERATING 2500-3000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE ACROSS THESE AREAS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH SHOULD
PROPAGATE ESE INTO EXTREME NRN LA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DID
MAINTAIN LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS WHILE ALSO ADDING SVR
WORDING TO THE FORECAST...BUT RAISED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A MCS DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND HIGH PW/S...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM E TX INTO NW LA/SW AR...WHERE QPF
TOTALS OF 1-3+ INCHES WILL BE LIKELY.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. DID MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FROM DEEP E TX INTO N LA/SCNTRL AR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING POPS FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. A NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL SET UP FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY...ONCE UPPER RIDGING IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW...AND TROUGHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE REGION AS WEAK VORTICITY
PERTURBATIONS MIGRATE SE FROM OK INTO WRN/CNTRL AR. TROUGHING ALOFT E
OF THE MS VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COOL FRONT TO BACKDOOR SW INTO
SE OK/SRN AR/N LA FRIDAY...WITH THE VORTICITY AXIS EXPANDING A LITTLE
FARTHER W. THUS...THE WWD EXPANSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS GOOD
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACKDOORING INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS THE BNDRY STALLS. SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPS
WARM BACK TO NEAR 90 LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE
BNDRY WASHING OUT AND A MORE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS AM...WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY AROUND 20/10Z...AND MAY GRADUALLY LOWER TO LOW MVFR.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OVER NE TX...AND AROUND 10 KTS ELSEWHERE.
THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTY THIS AFTN...AND
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH AFTER 21/0Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN RESPONSE TO SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FFONT MOVG INTO SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CAP WILL WEAKEN AREAWIDE ON TUE AFTN. MORNING CIGS BECMG SCT
VFR BY AROUND 20/15Z TODAY AND MVFR CIGS RETURNING ONCE AGAIN TO
AREA AFTER 21/06Z. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE KTXK TERMINAL AS
EARLY AS 21/12Z. /07/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 73 88 68 86 / 5 10 50 70 30
MLU 91 72 89 69 85 / 5 5 30 60 50
DEQ 89 69 81 63 86 / 10 50 60 70 10
TXK 89 71 84 66 86 / 10 30 60 70 20
ELD 90 71 86 67 86 / 5 10 50 70 30
TYR 91 72 86 68 86 / 5 20 50 70 20
GGG 91 72 87 68 86 / 5 20 50 70 20
LFK 92 72 90 71 89 / 5 10 20 60 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
15/07
000
FXUS64 KSHV 200117
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION ATTM. WINDS SLOWLY
DECOUPLING FROM WEST TO EAST AND WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRATION AT 8 PM...NEEDED TO UPDATE TO REMOVE THE HEADLINE FROM
THE ZONE PACKAGE.
TAKING A LOOK AT IR IMAGERY...SC DECK ACROSS SE TX/SW LA ADVANCING
NORTHWARD QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS PLUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE ONGOING
FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED AS FAR AS MIN TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF US
THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE BY AROUND 20/08Z...AS STRONG SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...WITH MOST
SITES VFR 20/15-17Z...AS SLY WINDS PICK UP AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PD...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY N OF
I-30. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE SRN EXTENT OF
CONVECTION PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 89 73 88 69 / 10 10 20 50 50
MLU 72 89 72 88 69 / 0 10 10 40 40
DEQ 68 87 70 82 64 / 20 20 40 60 60
TXK 71 88 72 85 66 / 10 10 30 60 60
ELD 71 89 71 87 67 / 10 10 10 50 60
TYR 72 90 73 86 70 / 10 10 20 50 60
GGG 72 90 73 87 69 / 10 10 20 50 60
LFK 72 90 73 89 71 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13/12
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