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000
FXUS64 KSHV 040418
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE
STILL LEFT WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUD COVER NEAR 6-10KFT ACROSS MAINLY
N LA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO S AR. OTHERWISE...VERY THIN CIRRUS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WELL. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...KEPT MENTION OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT THE LFK
TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 14Z OR SO ON FRI AND KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS FOR SIMILAR CLOUD COVER AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS EVEN
THOUGH LATEST 00Z NAM CROSS SECTION OUTPUT SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR THE ADVECTION OF
THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

REGARDLESS...GOOD CU FIELD SHOULD REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATES SHOWERS/TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES AND RED
RIVER PARISHES THIS EVENING. FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...REDUCED
CLOUD-COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LOWERED LOW
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ALIGN WITH PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM
PREVIOUS MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  71  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  68  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  70  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  68  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  73  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  72  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  72  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040418
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE
STILL LEFT WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUD COVER NEAR 6-10KFT ACROSS MAINLY
N LA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO S AR. OTHERWISE...VERY THIN CIRRUS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WELL. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...KEPT MENTION OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT THE LFK
TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 14Z OR SO ON FRI AND KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS FOR SIMILAR CLOUD COVER AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS EVEN
THOUGH LATEST 00Z NAM CROSS SECTION OUTPUT SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR THE ADVECTION OF
THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

REGARDLESS...GOOD CU FIELD SHOULD REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATES SHOWERS/TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES AND RED
RIVER PARISHES THIS EVENING. FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...REDUCED
CLOUD-COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LOWERED LOW
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ALIGN WITH PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM
PREVIOUS MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  71  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  68  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  70  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  68  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  73  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  72  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  72  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 040418
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE
STILL LEFT WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUD COVER NEAR 6-10KFT ACROSS MAINLY
N LA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO S AR. OTHERWISE...VERY THIN CIRRUS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WELL. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...KEPT MENTION OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT THE LFK
TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 14Z OR SO ON FRI AND KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS FOR SIMILAR CLOUD COVER AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS EVEN
THOUGH LATEST 00Z NAM CROSS SECTION OUTPUT SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR THE ADVECTION OF
THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

REGARDLESS...GOOD CU FIELD SHOULD REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATES SHOWERS/TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES AND RED
RIVER PARISHES THIS EVENING. FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...REDUCED
CLOUD-COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LOWERED LOW
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ALIGN WITH PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM
PREVIOUS MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  71  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  68  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  70  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  68  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  73  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  72  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  72  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040250 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES AND RED
RIVER PARISHES THIS EVENING. FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...REDUCED
CLOUD-COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LOWERED LOW
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ALIGN WITH PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM
PREVIOUS MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  71  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  68  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  70  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  68  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  73  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  72  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  72  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 040250 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES AND RED
RIVER PARISHES THIS EVENING. FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...REDUCED
CLOUD-COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LOWERED LOW
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ALIGN WITH PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM
PREVIOUS MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  71  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  68  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  70  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  68  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  73  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  72  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  72  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 032152
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
452 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS OF NE TX/N LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BUT SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
7 PM THIS EVENING. THE CU FIELD SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS SETTING UP ALBEIT FOR SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS.

LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS WHERE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5KTS
OR SO. SHOULD SEE A DESCENT CU FIELD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT THE LFK/GGG/TYR TERMINALS IN THE 10-14Z
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SE WINDS
5-10KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WAS ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
DONT THINK THAT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE OF WARM AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATED SO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER. FOR THE
LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE FORMS AND SHORT
WAVES MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME COOLER READINGS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  71  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  69  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  74  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 032152
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
452 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS OF NE TX/N LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BUT SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
7 PM THIS EVENING. THE CU FIELD SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS SETTING UP ALBEIT FOR SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS.

LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS WHERE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5KTS
OR SO. SHOULD SEE A DESCENT CU FIELD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT THE LFK/GGG/TYR TERMINALS IN THE 10-14Z
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SE WINDS
5-10KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WAS ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
DONT THINK THAT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE OF WARM AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATED SO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER. FOR THE
LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE FORMS AND SHORT
WAVES MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME COOLER READINGS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  71  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  69  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  74  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 032152
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
452 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS OF NE TX/N LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BUT SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
7 PM THIS EVENING. THE CU FIELD SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS SETTING UP ALBEIT FOR SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS.

LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS WHERE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5KTS
OR SO. SHOULD SEE A DESCENT CU FIELD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT THE LFK/GGG/TYR TERMINALS IN THE 10-14Z
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SE WINDS
5-10KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WAS ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
DONT THINK THAT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE OF WARM AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATED SO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER. FOR THE
LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE FORMS AND SHORT
WAVES MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME COOLER READINGS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  71  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  69  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  74  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 032152
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
452 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS OF NE TX/N LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BUT SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
7 PM THIS EVENING. THE CU FIELD SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS SETTING UP ALBEIT FOR SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS.

LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS WHERE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5KTS
OR SO. SHOULD SEE A DESCENT CU FIELD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT THE LFK/GGG/TYR TERMINALS IN THE 10-14Z
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SE WINDS
5-10KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WAS ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
DONT THINK THAT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE OF WARM AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATED SO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER. FOR THE
LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE FORMS AND SHORT
WAVES MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME COOLER READINGS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  71  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  69  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  74  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 032117
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WAS ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
DONT THINK THAT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE OF WARM AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATED SO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER. FOR THE
LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE FORMS AND SHORT
WAVES MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME COOLER READINGS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SCTVBKN CU LIFTING ATTM ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE
FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY BR/FG...POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS AGAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...AROUND DAYBREAK
FROM 09-15Z. AFTN ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  71  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  69  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  74  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 032117
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WAS ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
DONT THINK THAT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE OF WARM AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATED SO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER. FOR THE
LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE FORMS AND SHORT
WAVES MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME COOLER READINGS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SCTVBKN CU LIFTING ATTM ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE
FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY BR/FG...POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS AGAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...AROUND DAYBREAK
FROM 09-15Z. AFTN ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  71  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  69  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  74  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 031741
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1241 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SCTVBKN CU LIFTING ATTM ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE
FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY BR/FG...POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS AGAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...AROUND DAYBREAK
FROM 09-15Z. AFTN ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SHOWERS OVER SE TX/SW LA...WHERE MOIST AIRMASS TO 500 MB AS
SEEN ON 12Z LCH SOUNDING...TO MOVE NWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTH AT 12Z SHV SOUNDING...DRIER
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE ISOLD
IN FCST AS IS FOR SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF CWA. PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE PATTERN OF HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...ALSO
APPEARS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE NEEDED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 031741
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1241 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SCTVBKN CU LIFTING ATTM ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE
FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY BR/FG...POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS AGAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...AROUND DAYBREAK
FROM 09-15Z. AFTN ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SHOWERS OVER SE TX/SW LA...WHERE MOIST AIRMASS TO 500 MB AS
SEEN ON 12Z LCH SOUNDING...TO MOVE NWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTH AT 12Z SHV SOUNDING...DRIER
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE ISOLD
IN FCST AS IS FOR SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF CWA. PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE PATTERN OF HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...ALSO
APPEARS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE NEEDED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 031515
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SHOWERS OVER SE TX/SW LA...WHERE MOIST AIRMASS TO 500 MB AS
SEEN ON 12Z LCH SOUNDING...TO MOVE NWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTH AT 12Z SHV SOUNDING...DRIER
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE ISOLD
IN FCST AS IS FOR SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF CWA. PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE PATTERN OF HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...ALSO
APPEARS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX AND
N CNTRL LA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INCLUDING KTYR/KGGG/KLFK.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO AFFECT KMLU/KELD LEADING TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 03/15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 031515
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SHOWERS OVER SE TX/SW LA...WHERE MOIST AIRMASS TO 500 MB AS
SEEN ON 12Z LCH SOUNDING...TO MOVE NWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTH AT 12Z SHV SOUNDING...DRIER
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE ISOLD
IN FCST AS IS FOR SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF CWA. PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE PATTERN OF HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...ALSO
APPEARS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX AND
N CNTRL LA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INCLUDING KTYR/KGGG/KLFK.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO AFFECT KMLU/KELD LEADING TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 03/15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 031145
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX AND
N CNTRL LA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INCLUDING KTYR/KGGG/KLFK.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO AFFECT KMLU/KELD LEADING TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 03/15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 031145
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX AND
N CNTRL LA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INCLUDING KTYR/KGGG/KLFK.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO AFFECT KMLU/KELD LEADING TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 03/15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 030916
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 030916
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 030325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. FOR THAT
REASON...HAVE REMOVED A LOT OF THIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AT THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AT THE
LFK/ELD TERMINALS.

OTHERWISE...DESCENT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE AID OF
HEATING ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOOK FOR LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE NEAR 4-8KTS AREAWIDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 030325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. FOR THAT
REASON...HAVE REMOVED A LOT OF THIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AT THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AT THE
LFK/ELD TERMINALS.

OTHERWISE...DESCENT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE AID OF
HEATING ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOOK FOR LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE NEAR 4-8KTS AREAWIDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 030325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. FOR THAT
REASON...HAVE REMOVED A LOT OF THIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AT THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AT THE
LFK/ELD TERMINALS.

OTHERWISE...DESCENT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE AID OF
HEATING ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOOK FOR LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE NEAR 4-8KTS AREAWIDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 030213
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
913 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 022231
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION COVERAGE ABOUT HALF OF WHAT IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AND FOR THAT REASON...THINK WE CAN FORGO ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z
TERMINAL TAF PACKAGE. STILL DEALING WITH PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HOWEVER...AFFECTING THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BUT FEEL
LIKE THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD SEE DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT THE LFK TERMINAL
BUT IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MIX
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCOLATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS ARE NOT
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV MEX
WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER BLEND ON
OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 022231
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION COVERAGE ABOUT HALF OF WHAT IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AND FOR THAT REASON...THINK WE CAN FORGO ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z
TERMINAL TAF PACKAGE. STILL DEALING WITH PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HOWEVER...AFFECTING THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BUT FEEL
LIKE THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD SEE DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT THE LFK TERMINAL
BUT IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MIX
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCOLATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS ARE NOT
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV MEX
WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER BLEND ON
OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 022045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCULATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS AREN/T
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV
MEX WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER
BLEND ON OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 022045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCULATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS AREN/T
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV
MEX WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER
BLEND ON OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 022045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCULATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS AREN/T
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV
MEX WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER
BLEND ON OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021848
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
148 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMP HIGHS ANOTHER CATEGORY AND SHAVE DEEP E TX POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE TAKEN A BIG JUMP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WITH THE THICK MID DECK ALREADY NORTH OF SHREVEPORT THE
LOWER 90S WOULD NOT LIKELY HOLD. ALSO...WE HAVE TWEAKED POPS A
TAD WHERE CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLUGISH TO DEVELOP ANY TOWERS. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  96  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  93  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021658
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 021658
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 021658
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021658
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020912
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020912
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 020237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 020237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 012301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
601 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS S AR/NW LA AND NE TX
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS AS WELL
AS THE MLU TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO HIT THESE WITH
VCTS AND A SMALL TEMPO GROUP BUT SHOULD SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING. WHAT IS
LEFT OVER IS PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND THE LFK
TERMINAL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING AT THE LFK TERMINAL WITH RANDOM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS AND NORTH CLOSER TO MID
DAY INTO THE AFTN ON WED.

&&

13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 012301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
601 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS S AR/NW LA AND NE TX
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS AS WELL
AS THE MLU TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO HIT THESE WITH
VCTS AND A SMALL TEMPO GROUP BUT SHOULD SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING. WHAT IS
LEFT OVER IS PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND THE LFK
TERMINAL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING AT THE LFK TERMINAL WITH RANDOM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS AND NORTH CLOSER TO MID
DAY INTO THE AFTN ON WED.

&&

13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011151
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011151
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011151
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011151
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 010913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





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