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000
FXUS64 KSHV 252350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AT 5KFT EVAPORATING WITH SUNDOWN AND NOTHING
BUT SCT CIRRUS AND A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. MORE OR LESS A REPEAT
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE S/SW 5-10 KTS. ALOFT...SW 20KTS VEER AROUND TO NE BY
10KFT 30KTS. A COLD FRONT WITH THUNDER EARLY NEXT WEEK./24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH OVER WRN AND SCNTRL AR/NE LA HAS BEGUN TO
WORK BACK NE AND WASH OUT...AND IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE CU FIELD ADVANCING NE ACROSS CNTRL/SE AR AND
NCNTRL MS. WE HAVE SEEN SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NCNTRL LA...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RESULTED IN SOME
ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS LATE THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...HEAT INDICES HAVEN/T BEEN
MUCH HIGHER...WITH A COUPLE LOCALES EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK /IN
LFK AND IER/. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...MOS STILL HAS
BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE HOT ON MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES E INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN RECENT TEMP TRENDS...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT
MOS A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND EVEN AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS...THUS
ANY TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES...AND THE EXPECTATION IS NOW THAT
HEAT ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR OUR REGION.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE W ONCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG SEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE ATOP THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCT MAINLY
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER/FARTHER S WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE REACHING SE TX/S LA BEFORE STALLING
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FASTER INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS TAPERING POPS OFF FASTER FROM N TO S. HAVE
REFLECTED THIS TREND AS WELL IN THE EXTENDED...DROPPING POPS
AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
SCT CONVECTION MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO OUR NW LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIDING SE ALONG/N OF THE STALLED FRONT INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE DELAYED EXPANSION OF CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE UNTIL THURSDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH QPF/S DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH THE NEXT 7
DAYS...TEMPS/HUMDITIES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH THIS TREND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  72  95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  69  94  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  72  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  70  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
TYR  74  96  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  95  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  74  97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 252350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AT 5KFT EVAPORATING WITH SUNDOWN AND NOTHING
BUT SCT CIRRUS AND A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. MORE OR LESS A REPEAT
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE S/SW 5-10 KTS. ALOFT...SW 20KTS VEER AROUND TO NE BY
10KFT 30KTS. A COLD FRONT WITH THUNDER EARLY NEXT WEEK./24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH OVER WRN AND SCNTRL AR/NE LA HAS BEGUN TO
WORK BACK NE AND WASH OUT...AND IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE CU FIELD ADVANCING NE ACROSS CNTRL/SE AR AND
NCNTRL MS. WE HAVE SEEN SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NCNTRL LA...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RESULTED IN SOME
ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS LATE THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...HEAT INDICES HAVEN/T BEEN
MUCH HIGHER...WITH A COUPLE LOCALES EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK /IN
LFK AND IER/. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...MOS STILL HAS
BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE HOT ON MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES E INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN RECENT TEMP TRENDS...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT
MOS A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND EVEN AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS...THUS
ANY TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES...AND THE EXPECTATION IS NOW THAT
HEAT ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR OUR REGION.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE W ONCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG SEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE ATOP THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCT MAINLY
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER/FARTHER S WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE REACHING SE TX/S LA BEFORE STALLING
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FASTER INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS TAPERING POPS OFF FASTER FROM N TO S. HAVE
REFLECTED THIS TREND AS WELL IN THE EXTENDED...DROPPING POPS
AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
SCT CONVECTION MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO OUR NW LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIDING SE ALONG/N OF THE STALLED FRONT INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE DELAYED EXPANSION OF CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE UNTIL THURSDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH QPF/S DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH THE NEXT 7
DAYS...TEMPS/HUMDITIES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH THIS TREND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  72  95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  69  94  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  72  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  70  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
TYR  74  96  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  95  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  74  97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 252050
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH OVER WRN AND SCNTRL AR/NE LA HAS BEGUN TO
WORK BACK NE AND WASH OUT...AND IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE CU FIELD ADVANCING NE ACROSS CNTRL/SE AR AND
NCNTRL MS. WE HAVE SEEN SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NCNTRL LA...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RESULTED IN SOME
ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS LATE THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...HEAT INDICES HAVEN/T BEEN
MUCH HIGHER...WITH A COUPLE LOCALES EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK /IN
LFK AND IER/. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...MOS STILL HAS
BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE HOT ON MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES E INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN RECENT TEMP TRENDS...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT
MOS A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND EVEN AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS...THUS
ANY TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES...AND THE EXPECTATION IS NOW THAT
HEAT ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR OUR REGION.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE W ONCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG SEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE ATOP THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCT MAINLY
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER/FARTHER S WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE REACHING SE TX/S LA BEFORE STALLING
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FASTER INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS TAPERING POPS OFF FASTER FROM N TO S. HAVE
REFLECTED THIS TREND AS WELL IN THE EXTENDED...DROPPING POPS
AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
SCT CONVECTION MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO OUR NW LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIDING SE ALONG/N OF THE STALLED FRONT INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE DELAYED EXPANSION OF CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE UNTIL THURSDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH QPF/S DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH THE NEXT 7
DAYS...TEMPS/HUMDITIES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH THIS TREND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  72  95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  69  94  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  72  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  70  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
TYR  74  96  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  95  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  74  97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 252050
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH OVER WRN AND SCNTRL AR/NE LA HAS BEGUN TO
WORK BACK NE AND WASH OUT...AND IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE CU FIELD ADVANCING NE ACROSS CNTRL/SE AR AND
NCNTRL MS. WE HAVE SEEN SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NCNTRL LA...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RESULTED IN SOME
ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS LATE THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...HEAT INDICES HAVEN/T BEEN
MUCH HIGHER...WITH A COUPLE LOCALES EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK /IN
LFK AND IER/. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...MOS STILL HAS
BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE HOT ON MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES E INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN RECENT TEMP TRENDS...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT
MOS A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND EVEN AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS...THUS
ANY TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES...AND THE EXPECTATION IS NOW THAT
HEAT ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR OUR REGION.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE W ONCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG SEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE ATOP THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCT MAINLY
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER/FARTHER S WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE REACHING SE TX/S LA BEFORE STALLING
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FASTER INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS TAPERING POPS OFF FASTER FROM N TO S. HAVE
REFLECTED THIS TREND AS WELL IN THE EXTENDED...DROPPING POPS
AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
SCT CONVECTION MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO OUR NW LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIDING SE ALONG/N OF THE STALLED FRONT INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE DELAYED EXPANSION OF CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE UNTIL THURSDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH QPF/S DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH THE NEXT 7
DAYS...TEMPS/HUMDITIES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH THIS TREND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  72  95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  69  94  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  72  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  70  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
TYR  74  96  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  95  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  74  97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 251746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE DOMINANT AREA
WIDE FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE S/SE WITH TIME. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST TERMINALS BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY 15Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRATUS SHIELD IS STILL HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING OVER SE
OK/NEN SECTIONS OF SW AR...NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AR TO JUST E OF TXK...TO JUST N OF
MLU/TVR AS OF 16Z...AND IS BEST DEPICTED VIA THE SFC THETA-E
ANALYSIS. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
AND S OF THIS BNDRY OVER N/CNTRL LA AND ADJACENT E TX...WITH
DEWPOINTS HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S. THIS...AND ADDED
HEATING...HAS RESULTED IN A HEALTHY CU FIELD ALONG/S OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE BNDRY HAVING RETREATED A TAD BACK N OF MLU AND
NEARING ELD THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CU FIELD AS THE 12Z KSHV RAOB
SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD IS QUITE SHALLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT...WHILE SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD WITH THE
EWD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

16Z TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS E
TX/NCNTRL LA...AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR...WHERE
THE STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE SFC BNDRY. HEAT INDICES SHOULD NEAR 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT MUCH. BUT
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  91  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  91  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  92  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20







000
FXUS64 KSHV 251746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE DOMINANT AREA
WIDE FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE S/SE WITH TIME. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST TERMINALS BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY 15Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRATUS SHIELD IS STILL HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING OVER SE
OK/NEN SECTIONS OF SW AR...NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AR TO JUST E OF TXK...TO JUST N OF
MLU/TVR AS OF 16Z...AND IS BEST DEPICTED VIA THE SFC THETA-E
ANALYSIS. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
AND S OF THIS BNDRY OVER N/CNTRL LA AND ADJACENT E TX...WITH
DEWPOINTS HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S. THIS...AND ADDED
HEATING...HAS RESULTED IN A HEALTHY CU FIELD ALONG/S OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE BNDRY HAVING RETREATED A TAD BACK N OF MLU AND
NEARING ELD THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CU FIELD AS THE 12Z KSHV RAOB
SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD IS QUITE SHALLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT...WHILE SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD WITH THE
EWD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

16Z TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS E
TX/NCNTRL LA...AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR...WHERE
THE STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE SFC BNDRY. HEAT INDICES SHOULD NEAR 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT MUCH. BUT
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  91  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  91  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  92  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20






000
FXUS64 KSHV 251630
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRATUS SHIELD IS STILL HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING OVER SE
OK/NEN SECTIONS OF SW AR...NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AR TO JUST E OF TXK...TO JUST N OF
MLU/TVR AS OF 16Z...AND IS BEST DEPICTED VIA THE SFC THETA-E
ANALYSIS. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
AND S OF THIS BNDRY OVER N/CNTRL LA AND ADJACENT E TX...WITH
DEWPOINTS HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S. THIS...AND ADDED
HEATING...HAS RESULTED IN A HEALTHY CU FIELD ALONG/S OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE BNDRY HAVING RETREATED A TAD BACK N OF MLU AND
NEARING ELD THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CU FIELD AS THE 12Z KSHV RAOB
SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD IS QUITE SHALLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT...WHILE SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD WITH THE
EWD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

16Z TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS E
TX/NCNTRL LA...AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR...WHERE
THE STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE SFC BNDRY. HEAT INDICES SHOULD NEAR 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT MUCH. BUT
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  91  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  91  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  92  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 251630
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRATUS SHIELD IS STILL HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING OVER SE
OK/NEN SECTIONS OF SW AR...NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AR TO JUST E OF TXK...TO JUST N OF
MLU/TVR AS OF 16Z...AND IS BEST DEPICTED VIA THE SFC THETA-E
ANALYSIS. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
AND S OF THIS BNDRY OVER N/CNTRL LA AND ADJACENT E TX...WITH
DEWPOINTS HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S. THIS...AND ADDED
HEATING...HAS RESULTED IN A HEALTHY CU FIELD ALONG/S OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE BNDRY HAVING RETREATED A TAD BACK N OF MLU AND
NEARING ELD THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CU FIELD AS THE 12Z KSHV RAOB
SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD IS QUITE SHALLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT...WHILE SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD WITH THE
EWD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

16Z TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS E
TX/NCNTRL LA...AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR...WHERE
THE STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE SFC BNDRY. HEAT INDICES SHOULD NEAR 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT MUCH. BUT
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  91  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  91  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  92  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 251204
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/12Z TAFS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY REDUCING VSBYS
AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
DOMINANT AREA WIDE FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
S/SE WITH TIME AS SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS. CU FIELD TO DEVELOP
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND THEN SKIES CLEARING AFTER SUNSET
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TO END THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY IN STORE TODAY AND REALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS HOT AS WE COULD BE IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUCH THAT
HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW HEAT INDEX CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES. WARMEST DAY HEAT WISE APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
CARVES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
HELP TO DRIVE A RARE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN WE WILL WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL RAINS
EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVES COMING AT US FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 251204
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/12Z TAFS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY REDUCING VSBYS
AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
DOMINANT AREA WIDE FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
S/SE WITH TIME AS SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS. CU FIELD TO DEVELOP
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND THEN SKIES CLEARING AFTER SUNSET
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TO END THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY IN STORE TODAY AND REALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS HOT AS WE COULD BE IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUCH THAT
HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW HEAT INDEX CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES. WARMEST DAY HEAT WISE APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
CARVES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
HELP TO DRIVE A RARE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN WE WILL WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL RAINS
EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVES COMING AT US FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 250804
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY IN STORE TODAY AND REALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS HOT AS WE COULD BE IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUCH THAT
HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW HEAT INDEX CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES. WARMEST DAY HEAT WISE APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
CARVES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
HELP TO DRIVE A RARE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN WE WILL WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL RAINS
EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVES COMING AT US FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 250804
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY IN STORE TODAY AND REALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS HOT AS WE COULD BE IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUCH THAT
HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW HEAT INDEX CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES. WARMEST DAY HEAT WISE APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
CARVES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
HELP TO DRIVE A RARE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN WE WILL WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL RAINS
EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVES COMING AT US FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 250456
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPEANDS AND LIFTS AWAY THE WESTERLY STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND LITTLE EASTERLY ACTIVITY UNDERNEATH. JUST SOME BRIEF
DAYBREAK IFR/MVFR BR/FG AND A FEW CIGS IMPROVING MUCH EARLIER. SFC
WINDS LIGHT AND VRB AROUND 5KTS AND STILL MOSTLY NE FLOW
ALOFT...FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL THE MIDLEVELS OR SO. AS OF THIS WRITING
ALREADY SOME LIGHT BR...MAY BE A LONG NIGHT UP AND DOWN. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOW-CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FOR THIS UPDATE...SIMPLY INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL
INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS AND CONTRIBUTES TO DAYBREAK
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 250456
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPEANDS AND LIFTS AWAY THE WESTERLY STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND LITTLE EASTERLY ACTIVITY UNDERNEATH. JUST SOME BRIEF
DAYBREAK IFR/MVFR BR/FG AND A FEW CIGS IMPROVING MUCH EARLIER. SFC
WINDS LIGHT AND VRB AROUND 5KTS AND STILL MOSTLY NE FLOW
ALOFT...FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL THE MIDLEVELS OR SO. AS OF THIS WRITING
ALREADY SOME LIGHT BR...MAY BE A LONG NIGHT UP AND DOWN. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOW-CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FOR THIS UPDATE...SIMPLY INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL
INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS AND CONTRIBUTES TO DAYBREAK
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 250236
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
936 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOW-CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FOR THIS UPDATE...SIMPLY INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL
INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS AND CONTRIBUTES TO DAYBREAK
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 250236
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
936 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOW-CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FOR THIS UPDATE...SIMPLY INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL
INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS AND CONTRIBUTES TO DAYBREAK
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 250015
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
715 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
QUIET BY GREAT CONTRAST WITH ONLY SOME LATE DAY HEATING WITH
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING/BREAKING ALL DAY. OUR SFC WINDS STILL
REFLECT HAVING THE BACK DOOR (NE) KICKED IN WITH A SORT OF A WEAK
FROPA IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS STRAIGHT LINE WIND STORM. LITTLE
IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
LIFTS AWAY STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE EASTERLY ACTIVITY
UNDERNEATH. JUST SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK IFR/MVFR BR/FG AND A FEW CIGS
IMPROVING MUCH EARLIER. SFC...VRB AROUND 5KTS/NE FLOW ALOFT ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 250015
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
715 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
QUIET BY GREAT CONTRAST WITH ONLY SOME LATE DAY HEATING WITH
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING/BREAKING ALL DAY. OUR SFC WINDS STILL
REFLECT HAVING THE BACK DOOR (NE) KICKED IN WITH A SORT OF A WEAK
FROPA IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS STRAIGHT LINE WIND STORM. LITTLE
IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
LIFTS AWAY STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE EASTERLY ACTIVITY
UNDERNEATH. JUST SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK IFR/MVFR BR/FG AND A FEW CIGS
IMPROVING MUCH EARLIER. SFC...VRB AROUND 5KTS/NE FLOW ALOFT ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 242050
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 242050
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 241811
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LEAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SHV...MLU...TXK...AND ELD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LIFT THE CLOUD DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SE OF MLU...HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING
IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20






000
FXUS64 KSHV 241811
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LEAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SHV...MLU...TXK...AND ELD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LIFT THE CLOUD DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SE OF MLU...HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING
IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20







000
FXUS64 KSHV 241641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 241641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 241206
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A THIN STRATUS LAYER
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF OUR AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS HEATING
COMMENCES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS FROM
THE N/NE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWRD INTO THE
REGION SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT WE SAW THIS MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 241206
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A THIN STRATUS LAYER
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF OUR AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS HEATING
COMMENCES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS FROM
THE N/NE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWRD INTO THE
REGION SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT WE SAW THIS MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 241134
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 240159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 240056
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
756 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION NOW ALONG INTERSTATE 20 FROM TYLER TO
SHREVEPORT. SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE MCS FROM ONGOING WATCHES. UPDATE ALREADY OUT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 232346
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ALSO...WITH CONVECTION EXITING SOME
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431.
WATCH 434 REMAINS INTACT AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232346
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ALSO...WITH CONVECTION EXITING SOME
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431.
WATCH 434 REMAINS INTACT AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSHV 232040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 232040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231812 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
112 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO INCLUDE SVR WATCH 431 FOR MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AS WELL AS LITTLE RIVER/SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW AR
THROUGH 01Z. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED AT 1137 AM FOR
REASONING.

15

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN AREA TAFS.
SOME SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I30 CORRIDOR...SO WE MAY HAVE TO AMD TXK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. /11/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231812 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
112 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO INCLUDE SVR WATCH 431 FOR MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AS WELL AS LITTLE RIVER/SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW AR
THROUGH 01Z. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED AT 1137 AM FOR
REASONING.

15

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN AREA TAFS.
SOME SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I30 CORRIDOR...SO WE MAY HAVE TO AMD TXK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. /11/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15










000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15











000
FXUS64 KSHV 231623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. DON/T BELIEVE THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NRN ZONES. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS
INSTABILITY /THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. DON/T BELIEVE THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NRN ZONES. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS
INSTABILITY /THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 231245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
745 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON
THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING SWWRD INTO SE LA WILL INDUCE
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN/ERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MLU FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 231245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
745 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON
THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING SWWRD INTO SE LA WILL INDUCE
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN/ERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MLU FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 230210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






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