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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS THRU AT LEAST 29/06Z.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER SW AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTN...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS. THESE MID LVL CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 06Z AT KELD...KTXK...KMLU...AND
POSSIBLY KSHV AND KGGG...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTN 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL BECOME EASTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS THRU AT LEAST 29/06Z.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER SW AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTN...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS. THESE MID LVL CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 06Z AT KELD...KTXK...KMLU...AND
POSSIBLY KSHV AND KGGG...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTN 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL BECOME EASTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS THRU AT LEAST 29/06Z.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER SW AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTN...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS. THESE MID LVL CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 06Z AT KELD...KTXK...KMLU...AND
POSSIBLY KSHV AND KGGG...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTN 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL BECOME EASTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS THRU AT LEAST 29/06Z.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER SW AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTN...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS. THESE MID LVL CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 06Z AT KELD...KTXK...KMLU...AND
POSSIBLY KSHV AND KGGG...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTN 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL BECOME EASTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280755
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  10   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  10   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280755
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  10   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  10   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280755
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  10   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  10   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280243
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS DIMINISHING AND MUCH MORE
SO AFTER SUNSET. WE WILL BE SHIFTING FROM NE TO SE BY DAYBREAK
WITH SOME S/SW FLOW BY 15Z ON SATURDAY 5-10KTS. THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK BR WITH ANY CALM CONDITIONS...BUT FAIR SKIES
AGAIN EXPECTED BY 15Z. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE MORE OR LESS NW
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY 8KFT...NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 75-85 KTS BY FL200 AND UP TO FL300. THIS NW FLOW WILL BACK TO
SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280243
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS DIMINISHING AND MUCH MORE
SO AFTER SUNSET. WE WILL BE SHIFTING FROM NE TO SE BY DAYBREAK
WITH SOME S/SW FLOW BY 15Z ON SATURDAY 5-10KTS. THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK BR WITH ANY CALM CONDITIONS...BUT FAIR SKIES
AGAIN EXPECTED BY 15Z. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE MORE OR LESS NW
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY 8KFT...NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 75-85 KTS BY FL200 AND UP TO FL300. THIS NW FLOW WILL BACK TO
SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS DIMINISHING AND MUCH MORE
SO AFTER SUNSET. WE WILL BE SHIFTING FROM NE TO SE BY DAYBREAK
WITH SOME S/SW FLOW BY 15Z ON SATURDAY 5-10KTS. THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK BR WITH ANY CALM CONDITIONS...BUT FAIR SKIES
AGAIN EXPECTED BY 15Z. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE MORE OR LESS NW
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY 8KFT...NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 75-85 KTS BY FL200 AND UP TO FL300. THIS NW FLOW WILL BACK TO
SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS DIMINISHING AND MUCH MORE
SO AFTER SUNSET. WE WILL BE SHIFTING FROM NE TO SE BY DAYBREAK
WITH SOME S/SW FLOW BY 15Z ON SATURDAY 5-10KTS. THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK BR WITH ANY CALM CONDITIONS...BUT FAIR SKIES
AGAIN EXPECTED BY 15Z. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE MORE OR LESS NW
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY 8KFT...NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 75-85 KTS BY FL200 AND UP TO FL300. THIS NW FLOW WILL BACK TO
SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271906
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271906
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271803
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
103 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE WITH
MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE EVENING
HRS BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY AND NLY SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS
AN UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FOR
THIS FORECAST UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRID UPWARD FOR THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HELD OFF ON ADDING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271522
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1022 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS
AN UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FOR
THIS FORECAST UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRID UPWARD FOR THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HELD OFF ON ADDING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271522
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1022 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS
AN UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FOR
THIS FORECAST UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRID UPWARD FOR THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HELD OFF ON ADDING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THRU 28/12Z FCST
CYCLE...WITH EXCEPTION OF DENSE FOG AT THE KMLU TERMINAL...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 27/14-15Z. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...WITH MID LVL DECKS ROTATING THRU MAINLY
KTXK AND KELD TERMINALS...MOSTLY SKC FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS AREA.
LGT WINDS BECMG NW 10 TO 15 KTS MOST OF AREA BTWN 27/17-22Z...BCMG
LGT VRBL BTWN 28/00-03Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID
MISS VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ATTM. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TODAY WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OUR WEATHER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN AS FAR AS TEMPS
ARE CONCERNED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DESCENT MOISTURE RETURN SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN
COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND
N LA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OLD MEXICO INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THRU 28/12Z FCST
CYCLE...WITH EXCEPTION OF DENSE FOG AT THE KMLU TERMINAL...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 27/14-15Z. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...WITH MID LVL DECKS ROTATING THRU MAINLY
KTXK AND KELD TERMINALS...MOSTLY SKC FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS AREA.
LGT WINDS BECMG NW 10 TO 15 KTS MOST OF AREA BTWN 27/17-22Z...BCMG
LGT VRBL BTWN 28/00-03Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID
MISS VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ATTM. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TODAY WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OUR WEATHER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN AS FAR AS TEMPS
ARE CONCERNED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DESCENT MOISTURE RETURN SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN
COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND
N LA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OLD MEXICO INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THRU 28/12Z FCST
CYCLE...WITH EXCEPTION OF DENSE FOG AT THE KMLU TERMINAL...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 27/14-15Z. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...WITH MID LVL DECKS ROTATING THRU MAINLY
KTXK AND KELD TERMINALS...MOSTLY SKC FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS AREA.
LGT WINDS BECMG NW 10 TO 15 KTS MOST OF AREA BTWN 27/17-22Z...BCMG
LGT VRBL BTWN 28/00-03Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID
MISS VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ATTM. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TODAY WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OUR WEATHER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN AS FAR AS TEMPS
ARE CONCERNED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DESCENT MOISTURE RETURN SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN
COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND
N LA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OLD MEXICO INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THRU 28/12Z FCST
CYCLE...WITH EXCEPTION OF DENSE FOG AT THE KMLU TERMINAL...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 27/14-15Z. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...WITH MID LVL DECKS ROTATING THRU MAINLY
KTXK AND KELD TERMINALS...MOSTLY SKC FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS AREA.
LGT WINDS BECMG NW 10 TO 15 KTS MOST OF AREA BTWN 27/17-22Z...BCMG
LGT VRBL BTWN 28/00-03Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID
MISS VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ATTM. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TODAY WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OUR WEATHER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN AS FAR AS TEMPS
ARE CONCERNED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DESCENT MOISTURE RETURN SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN
COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND
N LA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OLD MEXICO INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270837
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
337 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID
MISS VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ATTM. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TODAY WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OUR WEATHER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN AS FAR AS TEMPS
ARE CONCERNED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DESCENT MOISTURE RETURN SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN
COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND
N LA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OLD MEXICO INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CIGS EAST OF ALL OUR TERMINALS HAVING JUST
CLEARED KMLU. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N LESS THAN 5KTS. KELD IS CALM
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY
10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW
INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME CIRRUS. W/NW SFC WINDS 5-15KTS AFTER
17Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270837
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
337 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID
MISS VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ATTM. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TODAY WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OUR WEATHER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN AS FAR AS TEMPS
ARE CONCERNED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DESCENT MOISTURE RETURN SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN
COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND
N LA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OLD MEXICO INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CIGS EAST OF ALL OUR TERMINALS HAVING JUST
CLEARED KMLU. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N LESS THAN 5KTS. KELD IS CALM
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY
10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW
INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME CIRRUS. W/NW SFC WINDS 5-15KTS AFTER
17Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270837
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
337 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID
MISS VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ATTM. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TODAY WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OUR WEATHER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN AS FAR AS TEMPS
ARE CONCERNED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DESCENT MOISTURE RETURN SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN
COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND
N LA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OLD MEXICO INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CIGS EAST OF ALL OUR TERMINALS HAVING JUST
CLEARED KMLU. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N LESS THAN 5KTS. KELD IS CALM
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY
10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW
INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME CIRRUS. W/NW SFC WINDS 5-15KTS AFTER
17Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270837
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
337 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID
MISS VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ATTM. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TODAY WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OUR WEATHER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN AS FAR AS TEMPS
ARE CONCERNED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS
QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT DESCENT MOISTURE RETURN SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN
COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND
N LA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
OLD MEXICO INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CIGS EAST OF ALL OUR TERMINALS HAVING JUST
CLEARED KMLU. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N LESS THAN 5KTS. KELD IS CALM
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY
10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW
INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME CIRRUS. W/NW SFC WINDS 5-15KTS AFTER
17Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  43  74  55 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  64  42  68  49 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  63  40  68  45 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  64  42  69  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  63  41  67  50 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  44  77  56 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  69  44  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  45  79  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270420
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CIGS EAST OF ALL OUR TERMINALS HAVING JUST
CLEARED KMLU. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N LESS THAN 5KTS. KELD IS CALM
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY
10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW
INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME CIRRUS. W/NW SFC WINDS 5-15KTS AFTER
17Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA WIDE WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FROST IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HOPEFULLY FOR THOSE ALREADY PLANTED
FROST SENSITIVE CROPS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270420
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CIGS EAST OF ALL OUR TERMINALS HAVING JUST
CLEARED KMLU. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N LESS THAN 5KTS. KELD IS CALM
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY
10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW
INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME CIRRUS. W/NW SFC WINDS 5-15KTS AFTER
17Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA WIDE WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FROST IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HOPEFULLY FOR THOSE ALREADY PLANTED
FROST SENSITIVE CROPS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270420
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CIGS EAST OF ALL OUR TERMINALS HAVING JUST
CLEARED KMLU. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N LESS THAN 5KTS. KELD IS CALM
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY
10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW
INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME CIRRUS. W/NW SFC WINDS 5-15KTS AFTER
17Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA WIDE WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FROST IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HOPEFULLY FOR THOSE ALREADY PLANTED
FROST SENSITIVE CROPS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270420
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CIGS EAST OF ALL OUR TERMINALS HAVING JUST
CLEARED KMLU. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N LESS THAN 5KTS. KELD IS CALM
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY
10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW
INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME CIRRUS. W/NW SFC WINDS 5-15KTS AFTER
17Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA WIDE WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FROST IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HOPEFULLY FOR THOSE ALREADY PLANTED
FROST SENSITIVE CROPS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA WIDE WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FROST IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HOPEFULLY FOR THOSE ALREADY PLANTED
FROST SENSITIVE CROPS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CIGS STRETCH EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KLFK...KSHV...TO
KELD...MOVING SE AT 20KTS. SFC WINDS ARE SLACKING GUSTS NOW WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BECOMING LESS THAN 5KTS BY 06Z.
ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY 10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE
MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY
FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. W/NW SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA WIDE WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FROST IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HOPEFULLY FOR THOSE ALREADY PLANTED
FROST SENSITIVE CROPS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CIGS STRETCH EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KLFK...KSHV...TO
KELD...MOVING SE AT 20KTS. SFC WINDS ARE SLACKING GUSTS NOW WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BECOMING LESS THAN 5KTS BY 06Z.
ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY 10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE
MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY
FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. W/NW SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA WIDE WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FROST IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HOPEFULLY FOR THOSE ALREADY PLANTED
FROST SENSITIVE CROPS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CIGS STRETCH EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KLFK...KSHV...TO
KELD...MOVING SE AT 20KTS. SFC WINDS ARE SLACKING GUSTS NOW WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BECOMING LESS THAN 5KTS BY 06Z.
ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY 10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE
MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY
FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. W/NW SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA WIDE WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FROST IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HOPEFULLY FOR THOSE ALREADY PLANTED
FROST SENSITIVE CROPS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CIGS STRETCH EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KLFK...KSHV...TO
KELD...MOVING SE AT 20KTS. SFC WINDS ARE SLACKING GUSTS NOW WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BECOMING LESS THAN 5KTS BY 06Z.
ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY 10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE
MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY
FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. W/NW SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270018
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
718 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CIGS STRETCH EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KLFK...KSHV...TO
KELD...MOVING SE AT 20KTS. SFC WINDS ARE SLACKING GUSTS NOW WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BECOMING LESS THAN 5KTS BY 06Z.
ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY 10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE
MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY
FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. W/NW SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270018
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
718 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CIGS STRETCH EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KLFK...KSHV...TO
KELD...MOVING SE AT 20KTS. SFC WINDS ARE SLACKING GUSTS NOW WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST BECOMING LESS THAN 5KTS BY 06Z.
ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY 10-30KTS FROM THE SFC INTO THE
MID LEVELS...THEN BACKING TO W/SW INCREASING IN SPEED. 110KTS BY
FL300 FROM SW. EXPECTING SKC OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SOME CIRRUS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. W/NW SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/




000
FXUS64 KSHV 262008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 262008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 262008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
DISCONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM.

LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO END BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  68  46  74 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  40  64  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  63  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  41  64  45  69 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  39  63  42  67 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  43  69  48  77 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  41  69  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  43  72  50  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261844
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
144 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FROM W TO E THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED AFTER SUNSET TO 5 KTS OR LESS.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM EL DORADO TO THE TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT RAIN AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER TO ALIGN WITH ONGOING
TRENDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS BORDERING ON LAKE WIND CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  68  45  73 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  41  66  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  35  64  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  40  66  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  65  42  69 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  43  70  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  40  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  46  72  47  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261844
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
144 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FROM W TO E THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED AFTER SUNSET TO 5 KTS OR LESS.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM EL DORADO TO THE TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT RAIN AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER TO ALIGN WITH ONGOING
TRENDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS BORDERING ON LAKE WIND CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  68  45  73 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  41  66  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  35  64  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  40  66  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  65  42  69 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  43  70  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  40  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  46  72  47  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261520
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1020 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM EL DORADO TO THE TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT RAIN AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER TO ALIGN WITH ONGOING
TRENDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS BORDERING ON LAKE WIND CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  50  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261520
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1020 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM EL DORADO TO THE TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT RAIN AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER TO ALIGN WITH ONGOING
TRENDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS BORDERING ON LAKE WIND CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  50  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261520
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1020 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM EL DORADO TO THE TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT RAIN AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER TO ALIGN WITH ONGOING
TRENDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS BORDERING ON LAKE WIND CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  50  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261055
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVG EAST ACOSS SW AR...WILL IMPACT THE KELD
TERMINAL...MAINLY BTWN 11-14Z. A COLD FRONT MOVG INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THE KTYR...KGGG...AND KTXK TERMINALS BTWN
11-12Z...TO KSHV...KLFK...AND KELD TERMINALS BY AROUND 15Z...AND
FINALLY KMLU BY AROUND 26/18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE
N-NW AT 10 TO 20 KTS...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
26/21Z...AND FINALLY TO LGT AND VRBL BY AROUND 27/03Z FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN TRAPPED BY LOW
LVL INVERSION...BECMG VFR BTWN 26/18-21Z. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CWA WITH DAYTIME HTG...MAINLY AT
KMLU...BEFORE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AFTER 27/03Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 TO EXPIRE FOR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES OF LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND
HEMPSTEAD AT 5 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...
ALOFT THIS MORNING A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR
TEXARKANA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A
NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE
LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH
ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED WITH QUICK MOVING
SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261055
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVG EAST ACOSS SW AR...WILL IMPACT THE KELD
TERMINAL...MAINLY BTWN 11-14Z. A COLD FRONT MOVG INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THE KTYR...KGGG...AND KTXK TERMINALS BTWN
11-12Z...TO KSHV...KLFK...AND KELD TERMINALS BY AROUND 15Z...AND
FINALLY KMLU BY AROUND 26/18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE
N-NW AT 10 TO 20 KTS...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
26/21Z...AND FINALLY TO LGT AND VRBL BY AROUND 27/03Z FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN TRAPPED BY LOW
LVL INVERSION...BECMG VFR BTWN 26/18-21Z. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CWA WITH DAYTIME HTG...MAINLY AT
KMLU...BEFORE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AFTER 27/03Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 TO EXPIRE FOR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES OF LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND
HEMPSTEAD AT 5 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...
ALOFT THIS MORNING A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR
TEXARKANA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A
NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE
LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH
ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED WITH QUICK MOVING
SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261055
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVG EAST ACOSS SW AR...WILL IMPACT THE KELD
TERMINAL...MAINLY BTWN 11-14Z. A COLD FRONT MOVG INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THE KTYR...KGGG...AND KTXK TERMINALS BTWN
11-12Z...TO KSHV...KLFK...AND KELD TERMINALS BY AROUND 15Z...AND
FINALLY KMLU BY AROUND 26/18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE
N-NW AT 10 TO 20 KTS...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
26/21Z...AND FINALLY TO LGT AND VRBL BY AROUND 27/03Z FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN TRAPPED BY LOW
LVL INVERSION...BECMG VFR BTWN 26/18-21Z. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CWA WITH DAYTIME HTG...MAINLY AT
KMLU...BEFORE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AFTER 27/03Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 TO EXPIRE FOR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES OF LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND
HEMPSTEAD AT 5 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...
ALOFT THIS MORNING A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR
TEXARKANA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A
NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE
LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH
ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED WITH QUICK MOVING
SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261055
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVG EAST ACOSS SW AR...WILL IMPACT THE KELD
TERMINAL...MAINLY BTWN 11-14Z. A COLD FRONT MOVG INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THE KTYR...KGGG...AND KTXK TERMINALS BTWN
11-12Z...TO KSHV...KLFK...AND KELD TERMINALS BY AROUND 15Z...AND
FINALLY KMLU BY AROUND 26/18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE
N-NW AT 10 TO 20 KTS...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
26/21Z...AND FINALLY TO LGT AND VRBL BY AROUND 27/03Z FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN TRAPPED BY LOW
LVL INVERSION...BECMG VFR BTWN 26/18-21Z. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CWA WITH DAYTIME HTG...MAINLY AT
KMLU...BEFORE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AFTER 27/03Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 TO EXPIRE FOR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES OF LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND
HEMPSTEAD AT 5 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...
ALOFT THIS MORNING A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR
TEXARKANA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A
NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE
LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH
ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED WITH QUICK MOVING
SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 261034
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
534 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 TO EXPIRE FOR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES OF LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND
HEMPSTEAD AT 5 AM CDT.

&&

DISCUSSION...
ALOFT THIS MORNING A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR
TEXARKANA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A
NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE
LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH
ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED WITH QUICK MOVING
SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261034
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
534 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 TO EXPIRE FOR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES OF LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND
HEMPSTEAD AT 5 AM CDT.

&&

DISCUSSION...
ALOFT THIS MORNING A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR
TEXARKANA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A
NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE
LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH
ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED WITH QUICK MOVING
SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260853
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 UNTIL 5 AM CDT FOR
LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND HEMPSTEAD COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT. ALOFT THIS MORNING
A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR TEXARKANA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE
COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
WEST TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL
END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION. THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL
END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA. FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BACK DOOR FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED
WITH QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260853
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 UNTIL 5 AM CDT FOR
LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND HEMPSTEAD COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT. ALOFT THIS MORNING
A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR TEXARKANA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE
COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
WEST TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL
END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION. THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL
END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA. FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BACK DOOR FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED
WITH QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260853
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 UNTIL 5 AM CDT FOR
LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND HEMPSTEAD COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT. ALOFT THIS MORNING
A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR TEXARKANA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE
COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
WEST TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL
END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION. THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL
END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA. FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BACK DOOR FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED
WITH QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260853
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 UNTIL 5 AM CDT FOR
LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND HEMPSTEAD COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT. ALOFT THIS MORNING
A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR TEXARKANA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE
COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
WEST TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL
END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION. THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL
END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA. FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BACK DOOR FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED
WITH QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260553
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  70  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  40  68 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  35  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  40  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  65  39  67 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  43  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  40  72  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  46  73  45  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260553
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  70  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  40  68 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  35  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  40  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  65  39  67 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  43  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  40  72  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  46  73  45  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260553
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  70  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  40  68 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  35  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  40  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  65  39  67 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  43  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  40  72  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  46  73  45  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260553
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  70  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  40  68 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  35  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  40  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  65  39  67 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  43  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  40  72  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  46  73  45  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260243
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH MOSTLY THIN
CIRRUS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BRINGING A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG
PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING FARTHER SE ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MOST CONVECTION WILL
BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME
LINGERING SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN
IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260243
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH MOSTLY THIN
CIRRUS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BRINGING A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG
PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING FARTHER SE ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MOST CONVECTION WILL
BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME
LINGERING SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN
IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH MOSTLY THIN
CIRRUS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BRINGING A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG
PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING FARTHER SE ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MOST CONVECTION WILL
BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME
LINGERING SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN
IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 260037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH MOSTLY THIN
CIRRUS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BRINGING A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG
PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING FARTHER SE ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MOST CONVECTION WILL
BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME
LINGERING SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN
IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH MOSTLY THIN
CIRRUS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BRINGING A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG
PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING FARTHER SE ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MOST CONVECTION WILL
BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME
LINGERING SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN
IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 252108
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 131 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING
OVER SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30 ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOIST SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT STRATO CU OR PATCHY ADVECTION FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 26/08Z. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH THE SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS. /09/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 252108
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 131 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING
OVER SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30 ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOIST SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT STRATO CU OR PATCHY ADVECTION FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 26/08Z. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH THE SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS. /09/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 252108
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 131 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING
OVER SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30 ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOIST SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT STRATO CU OR PATCHY ADVECTION FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 26/08Z. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH THE SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS. /09/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 252108
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...GIVING WAY TO WALL TO WALL
SUNSHINE. OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO OUR NW THIS EVENING...AS SCT
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL AND NE OK/NW AR...ALONG AND E
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM FROM NRN OK AND THE AR/MO
LINE...THEN SW TO A WEAK SFC LOW/ATTENDANT DRY LINE OVER NW TX IN
VC OF CDS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THE CIN HAS WEAKENED
OVER CNTRL/NE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT...WITH THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN COUNTY AROUND 05-06Z...BEFORE
ACCELERATING SE ON WHAT COULD BE A SE PROPAGATING GUST FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NE TX/SW AR LATE. WHILE A 40 KT SRLY LLJ
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN OK THIS
EVENING...850MB WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE WSW LATE...THUS LIMITING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AS THE BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY
ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM TO THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS ESE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE NW OF I-30 ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/IF NOT COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH PATCHY FG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
LATE.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST MODEEST WARMING FRIDAY...EVEN AS A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD
START ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE
SHIRTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER E TX/SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A VERY AMPLIFED TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN NOR THE ECMWF...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FROM
THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 131 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING
OVER SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30 ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOIST SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT STRATO CU OR PATCHY ADVECTION FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 26/08Z. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH THE SHWRS/TSTMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS. /09/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  63  42  70 /  50  60  10   0
MLU  58  65  41  67 /  20  60  10   0
DEQ  54  64  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
TXK  56  63  40  67 /  70  50   0   0
ELD  57  60  39  65 /  50  60  10   0
TYR  55  64  43  71 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  57  65  40  72 /  60  40   0   0
LFK  60  66  46  73 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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