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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 280925
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 280925
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...WITH LOWER CLOUD CIGS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF AREA STILL POSSIBLY ALLOWING CLOUD BASES TO FALL AT
KTXK...KTYR...AND POSSIBLY KGGG. LGT SNOW OR POSSIBLE FRZG DRIZZLE
AT THESE SITES OUT OF LOW VFR TO OCNL MVFR DECKS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
TOPS TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FRZG THRU AT LEAST
28/15Z...PRECIP MAY NOT MELT ON SURFACES THRU MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME BINOVC POSSIBLE WITH DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SAT AFTN.
HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM WEST AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO AREA...WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NE TX AFTER 01/00Z. SFC
WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NE-E AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...WITH LOWER CLOUD CIGS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF AREA STILL POSSIBLY ALLOWING CLOUD BASES TO FALL AT
KTXK...KTYR...AND POSSIBLY KGGG. LGT SNOW OR POSSIBLE FRZG DRIZZLE
AT THESE SITES OUT OF LOW VFR TO OCNL MVFR DECKS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
TOPS TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FRZG THRU AT LEAST
28/15Z...PRECIP MAY NOT MELT ON SURFACES THRU MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME BINOVC POSSIBLE WITH DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SAT AFTN.
HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM WEST AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO AREA...WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NE TX AFTER 01/00Z. SFC
WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NE-E AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...WITH LOWER CLOUD CIGS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF AREA STILL POSSIBLY ALLOWING CLOUD BASES TO FALL AT
KTXK...KTYR...AND POSSIBLY KGGG. LGT SNOW OR POSSIBLE FRZG DRIZZLE
AT THESE SITES OUT OF LOW VFR TO OCNL MVFR DECKS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
TOPS TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FRZG THRU AT LEAST
28/15Z...PRECIP MAY NOT MELT ON SURFACES THRU MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME BINOVC POSSIBLE WITH DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SAT AFTN.
HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM WEST AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO AREA...WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NE TX AFTER 01/00Z. SFC
WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NE-E AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 280423
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 280423
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 272140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KSHV 272140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 272140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 272140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 271202
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  29  49  44  61  52 /  10  10  40  60  60
MLU  28  51  44  61  52 /  10  10  40  60  60
DEQ  24  40  36  51  40 /  30  20  40  60  60
TXK  25  42  38  53  43 /  20  20  40  60  60
ELD  25  46  39  57  46 /  10  10  40  60  60
TYR  29  45  43  59  50 /  20  20  40  60  60
GGG  29  48  43  61  51 /  20  20  40  60  60
LFK  31  55  49  67  61 /  10  10  40  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 271202
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  29  49  44  61  52 /  10  10  40  60  60
MLU  28  51  44  61  52 /  10  10  40  60  60
DEQ  24  40  36  51  40 /  30  20  40  60  60
TXK  25  42  38  53  43 /  20  20  40  60  60
ELD  25  46  39  57  46 /  10  10  40  60  60
TYR  29  45  43  59  50 /  20  20  40  60  60
GGG  29  48  43  61  51 /  20  20  40  60  60
LFK  31  55  49  67  61 /  10  10  40  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 270858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  20  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 270858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  20  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 270525
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
AS MVFR STRATOCU POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR FROM
THE NORTH...MID LVL DECKS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LVLS MARGINAL FOR INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KTS BTWN
27/15-18Z...WITH MID LVL DECKS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY JUST NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...ALTHOUGH A VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE OUT OF LOW VFR DECKS AT KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG IN AFTN. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY OTHER WINTER PRECIP TYPE. NE WINDS BECMG 5 KTS AFTER 28/00Z
WITH MID LVL DECKS POSSIBLY DECREASING TO SCT VRBL BKN
OVERNIGHT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 270400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA...WITH LOW LVL INVERSION TO
CREATE MOSTLY MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AT KTXK
AND KELD...WITH LOW CIGS MORE INTERMITTENT AT THESE SITES. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG NE AROUND 10 KTS AS
MID LVL DECKS INCREASE ABOVE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BECMG LOW MVFR
BY AROUND 27/15Z. THESE WIND AND CLOUD CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THRU 28/00Z. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 270400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA...WITH LOW LVL INVERSION TO
CREATE MOSTLY MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AT KTXK
AND KELD...WITH LOW CIGS MORE INTERMITTENT AT THESE SITES. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG NE AROUND 10 KTS AS
MID LVL DECKS INCREASE ABOVE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BECMG LOW MVFR
BY AROUND 27/15Z. THESE WIND AND CLOUD CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THRU 28/00Z. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 262325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015


.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA...WITH LOW LVL INVERSION TO
CREATE MOSTLY MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AT KTXK
AND KELD...WITH LOW CIGS MORE INTERMITTENT AT THESE SITES. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG NE AROUND 10 KTS AS
MID LVL DECKS INCREASE ABOVE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BECMG LOW MVFR
BY AROUND 27/15Z. THESE WIND AND CLOUD CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THRU 28/00Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...A 1041MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CCA INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ALOFT...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FLOW
AFTER SATURDAY THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THEN WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE
LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING
TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH SATURDAYS
WARMUP...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THE CHANCE OF RAIN EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY
ENDING WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  26  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  26  39  27  51  45 /  10  10  10  10  40
DEQ  19  31  23  39  38 /  10  20  20  30  40
TXK  22  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  23  35  25  44  41 /  10  10  10  10  40
TYR  26  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  26  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 262325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015


.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA...WITH LOW LVL INVERSION TO
CREATE MOSTLY MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AT KTXK
AND KELD...WITH LOW CIGS MORE INTERMITTENT AT THESE SITES. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG NE AROUND 10 KTS AS
MID LVL DECKS INCREASE ABOVE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BECMG LOW MVFR
BY AROUND 27/15Z. THESE WIND AND CLOUD CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THRU 28/00Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...A 1041MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CCA INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ALOFT...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FLOW
AFTER SATURDAY THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THEN WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE
LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING
TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH SATURDAYS
WARMUP...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THE CHANCE OF RAIN EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY
ENDING WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  26  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  26  39  27  51  45 /  10  10  10  10  40
DEQ  19  31  23  39  38 /  10  20  20  30  40
TXK  22  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  23  35  25  44  41 /  10  10  10  10  40
TYR  26  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  26  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 262121
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
321 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...A 1041MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CCA INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ALOFT...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FLOW
AFTER SATURDAY THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THEN WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE
LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING
TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH SATURDAYS
WARMUP...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THE CHANCE OF RAIN EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY
ENDING WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  26  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  26  39  27  51  45 /  10  10  10  10  40
DEQ  19  31  23  39  38 /  10  20  20  30  40
TXK  22  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  23  35  25  44  41 /  10  10  10  10  40
TYR  26  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  26  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KSHV 262121
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
321 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...A 1041MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CCA INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ALOFT...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FLOW
AFTER SATURDAY THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THEN WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE
LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING
TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH SATURDAYS
WARMUP...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THE CHANCE OF RAIN EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY
ENDING WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  26  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  26  39  27  51  45 /  10  10  10  10  40
DEQ  19  31  23  39  38 /  10  20  20  30  40
TXK  22  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  23  35  25  44  41 /  10  10  10  10  40
TYR  26  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  26  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14







000
FXUS64 KSHV 261949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECTING MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE FOUR STATE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE TERMAINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
27/18Z...WITH A A LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING GENEARLLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS/MVFR
WILL RETURN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5-10 KNOTS AND INCREASING IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT TO 12-17 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DROPPING OFF AFTER
27/00Z TO 4-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR
DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AROUND 27/13Z-27/14Z FRIDAY./06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG A EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO LUFKIN TEXAS LINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FOLLOW...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF WITH ANOTHER COLD...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ATTM. TEXT ZONES SENT TO GET RID OF MORNING
WORDING.  /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 261949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECTING MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE FOUR STATE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE TERMAINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
27/18Z...WITH A A LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING GENEARLLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS/MVFR
WILL RETURN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5-10 KNOTS AND INCREASING IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT TO 12-17 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DROPPING OFF AFTER
27/00Z TO 4-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR
DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AROUND 27/13Z-27/14Z FRIDAY./06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG A EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO LUFKIN TEXAS LINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FOLLOW...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF WITH ANOTHER COLD...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ATTM. TEXT ZONES SENT TO GET RID OF MORNING
WORDING.  /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 261612
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1012 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG A EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO LUFKIN TEXAS LINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FOLLOW...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF WITH ANOTHER COLD...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ATTM. TEXT ZONES SENT TO GET RID OF MORNING
WORDING.  /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS AS ALL TAFS SITES ARE ABOVE 1SM. HOWEVER....FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/LIFR TO START THE PERIOD. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF
I-30. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AND
NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE...POSSIBLY INTO VFR...FROM NW TO SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 261612
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1012 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG A EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO LUFKIN TEXAS LINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FOLLOW...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF WITH ANOTHER COLD...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ATTM. TEXT ZONES SENT TO GET RID OF MORNING
WORDING.  /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS AS ALL TAFS SITES ARE ABOVE 1SM. HOWEVER....FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/LIFR TO START THE PERIOD. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF
I-30. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AND
NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE...POSSIBLY INTO VFR...FROM NW TO SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 261612
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1012 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG A EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO LUFKIN TEXAS LINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FOLLOW...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF WITH ANOTHER COLD...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ATTM. TEXT ZONES SENT TO GET RID OF MORNING
WORDING.  /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS AS ALL TAFS SITES ARE ABOVE 1SM. HOWEVER....FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/LIFR TO START THE PERIOD. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF
I-30. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AND
NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE...POSSIBLY INTO VFR...FROM NW TO SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 261612
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1012 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG A EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO LUFKIN TEXAS LINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FOLLOW...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF WITH ANOTHER COLD...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ATTM. TEXT ZONES SENT TO GET RID OF MORNING
WORDING.  /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS AS ALL TAFS SITES ARE ABOVE 1SM. HOWEVER....FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/LIFR TO START THE PERIOD. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF
I-30. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AND
NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE...POSSIBLY INTO VFR...FROM NW TO SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 261208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS AS ALL TAFS SITES ARE ABOVE 1SM. HOWEVER....FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/LIFR TO START THE PERIOD. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF
I-30. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AND
NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE...POSSIBLY INTO VFR...FROM NW TO SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 261208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS AS ALL TAFS SITES ARE ABOVE 1SM. HOWEVER....FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/LIFR TO START THE PERIOD. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF
I-30. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AND
NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE...POSSIBLY INTO VFR...FROM NW TO SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 261208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS AS ALL TAFS SITES ARE ABOVE 1SM. HOWEVER....FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/LIFR TO START THE PERIOD. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF
I-30. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AND
NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE...POSSIBLY INTO VFR...FROM NW TO SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 261208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS AS ALL TAFS SITES ARE ABOVE 1SM. HOWEVER....FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/LIFR TO START THE PERIOD. CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED INTO VFR/MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF
I-30. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AND
NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS. THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO RAISE CIGS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR RANGE...POSSIBLY INTO VFR...FROM NW TO SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260914
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 260914
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260914
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13








000
FXUS64 KSHV 260914
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260555
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS CLEARING FM W TO SE WITH VSBY ISSUES ENSUEING. SOME
FZR FG WHERE SKC FOR A WHILE. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBY BY
DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS FCST TO GO JUST BELOW FRZ EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
KLFK. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KGGG/KSHV/KELD ONLY
LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG FORMATION. SFC WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM.
L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO AID FOG UNTIL DAYBREAK. ALOFT OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 10-50KT BY FL160.
IFR/MVFR ALL MORNING...BUT MVFR/VFR SLOWLY FILTERING IN AFT 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE OF THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS
SE INTO FAR SRN AR AND ERN TX...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FZFG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CLEARED AREAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE/HIGH
BNDRY LYR RH/S/LIGHT WINDS. THE LATEST FEW FRAMES OF THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT MORE
S THAN SE...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN BNDRY LYR WINDS THAT THE 00Z WRF
HAS PICKED UP ON...WHICH MAY VEER MORE NERLY OVER NW LA/EXTREME ERN TX
LATE. THUS...THOSE AREAS W OF GGG THAT ARE CLEAR NOW MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH THIS STRATUS LATE. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN
INCREASING LAYER OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SHIFTING QUICKLY E ALONG/N OF
THE RED RIVER OF N TX...ALONG THE BASE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
SWD INTO THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT NOT IN TIME TO DETER
ANY POTENTIAL FZFG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLACK ICE FROM THE MELTING SNOW/SLUSH...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA ROADWAYS.

HAVE MADE THE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS PER THE
CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS
AREAS ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TOOK OUT MENTION OF -SN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NW
ZONES AS FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE SHALLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  42  26  40  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  30  42  24  39  26 /  10  10   0   0   0
DEQ  26  36  20  33  24 /  10  10   0  20  20
TXK  27  38  23  35  25 /  10  10   0  20  20
ELD  27  40  23  36  25 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  27  40  26  38  29 /   0  10   0  20  20
GGG  29  42  27  39  28 /   0  10   0   0  20
LFK  34  49  31  45  32 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 260555
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS CLEARING FM W TO SE WITH VSBY ISSUES ENSUEING. SOME
FZR FG WHERE SKC FOR A WHILE. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBY BY
DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS FCST TO GO JUST BELOW FRZ EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
KLFK. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KGGG/KSHV/KELD ONLY
LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG FORMATION. SFC WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM.
L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO AID FOG UNTIL DAYBREAK. ALOFT OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 10-50KT BY FL160.
IFR/MVFR ALL MORNING...BUT MVFR/VFR SLOWLY FILTERING IN AFT 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE OF THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS
SE INTO FAR SRN AR AND ERN TX...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FZFG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CLEARED AREAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE/HIGH
BNDRY LYR RH/S/LIGHT WINDS. THE LATEST FEW FRAMES OF THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT MORE
S THAN SE...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN BNDRY LYR WINDS THAT THE 00Z WRF
HAS PICKED UP ON...WHICH MAY VEER MORE NERLY OVER NW LA/EXTREME ERN TX
LATE. THUS...THOSE AREAS W OF GGG THAT ARE CLEAR NOW MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH THIS STRATUS LATE. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN
INCREASING LAYER OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SHIFTING QUICKLY E ALONG/N OF
THE RED RIVER OF N TX...ALONG THE BASE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
SWD INTO THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT NOT IN TIME TO DETER
ANY POTENTIAL FZFG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLACK ICE FROM THE MELTING SNOW/SLUSH...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA ROADWAYS.

HAVE MADE THE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS PER THE
CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS
AREAS ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TOOK OUT MENTION OF -SN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NW
ZONES AS FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE SHALLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  42  26  40  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  30  42  24  39  26 /  10  10   0   0   0
DEQ  26  36  20  33  24 /  10  10   0  20  20
TXK  27  38  23  35  25 /  10  10   0  20  20
ELD  27  40  23  36  25 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  27  40  26  38  29 /   0  10   0  20  20
GGG  29  42  27  39  28 /   0  10   0   0  20
LFK  34  49  31  45  32 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260555
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS CLEARING FM W TO SE WITH VSBY ISSUES ENSUEING. SOME
FZR FG WHERE SKC FOR A WHILE. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBY BY
DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS FCST TO GO JUST BELOW FRZ EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
KLFK. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KGGG/KSHV/KELD ONLY
LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG FORMATION. SFC WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM.
L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO AID FOG UNTIL DAYBREAK. ALOFT OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 10-50KT BY FL160.
IFR/MVFR ALL MORNING...BUT MVFR/VFR SLOWLY FILTERING IN AFT 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE OF THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS
SE INTO FAR SRN AR AND ERN TX...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FZFG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CLEARED AREAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE/HIGH
BNDRY LYR RH/S/LIGHT WINDS. THE LATEST FEW FRAMES OF THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT MORE
S THAN SE...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN BNDRY LYR WINDS THAT THE 00Z WRF
HAS PICKED UP ON...WHICH MAY VEER MORE NERLY OVER NW LA/EXTREME ERN TX
LATE. THUS...THOSE AREAS W OF GGG THAT ARE CLEAR NOW MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH THIS STRATUS LATE. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN
INCREASING LAYER OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SHIFTING QUICKLY E ALONG/N OF
THE RED RIVER OF N TX...ALONG THE BASE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
SWD INTO THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT NOT IN TIME TO DETER
ANY POTENTIAL FZFG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLACK ICE FROM THE MELTING SNOW/SLUSH...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA ROADWAYS.

HAVE MADE THE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS PER THE
CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS
AREAS ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TOOK OUT MENTION OF -SN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NW
ZONES AS FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE SHALLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  42  26  40  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  30  42  24  39  26 /  10  10   0   0   0
DEQ  26  36  20  33  24 /  10  10   0  20  20
TXK  27  38  23  35  25 /  10  10   0  20  20
ELD  27  40  23  36  25 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  27  40  26  38  29 /   0  10   0  20  20
GGG  29  42  27  39  28 /   0  10   0   0  20
LFK  34  49  31  45  32 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 260555
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS CLEARING FM W TO SE WITH VSBY ISSUES ENSUEING. SOME
FZR FG WHERE SKC FOR A WHILE. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBY BY
DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS FCST TO GO JUST BELOW FRZ EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
KLFK. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KGGG/KSHV/KELD ONLY
LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG FORMATION. SFC WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM.
L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO AID FOG UNTIL DAYBREAK. ALOFT OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 10-50KT BY FL160.
IFR/MVFR ALL MORNING...BUT MVFR/VFR SLOWLY FILTERING IN AFT 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE OF THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS
SE INTO FAR SRN AR AND ERN TX...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FZFG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CLEARED AREAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE/HIGH
BNDRY LYR RH/S/LIGHT WINDS. THE LATEST FEW FRAMES OF THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT MORE
S THAN SE...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN BNDRY LYR WINDS THAT THE 00Z WRF
HAS PICKED UP ON...WHICH MAY VEER MORE NERLY OVER NW LA/EXTREME ERN TX
LATE. THUS...THOSE AREAS W OF GGG THAT ARE CLEAR NOW MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH THIS STRATUS LATE. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN
INCREASING LAYER OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SHIFTING QUICKLY E ALONG/N OF
THE RED RIVER OF N TX...ALONG THE BASE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
SWD INTO THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT NOT IN TIME TO DETER
ANY POTENTIAL FZFG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLACK ICE FROM THE MELTING SNOW/SLUSH...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA ROADWAYS.

HAVE MADE THE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS PER THE
CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS
AREAS ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TOOK OUT MENTION OF -SN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NW
ZONES AS FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE SHALLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  42  26  40  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  30  42  24  39  26 /  10  10   0   0   0
DEQ  26  36  20  33  24 /  10  10   0  20  20
TXK  27  38  23  35  25 /  10  10   0  20  20
ELD  27  40  23  36  25 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  27  40  26  38  29 /   0  10   0  20  20
GGG  29  42  27  39  28 /   0  10   0   0  20
LFK  34  49  31  45  32 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260418
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1018 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE OF THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS
SE INTO FAR SRN AR AND ERN TX...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FZFG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CLEARED AREAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE/HIGH
BNDRY LYR RH/S/LIGHT WINDS. THE LATEST FEW FRAMES OF THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT MORE
S THAN SE...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN BNDRY LYR WINDS THAT THE 00Z WRF
HAS PICKED UP ON...WHICH MAY VEER MORE NERLY OVER NW LA/EXTREME ERN TX
LATE. THUS...THOSE AREAS W OF GGG THAT ARE CLEAR NOW MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH THIS STRATUS LATE. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN
INCREASING LAYER OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SHIFTING QUICKLY E ALONG/N OF
THE RED RIVER OF N TX...ALONG THE BASE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
SWD INTO THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT NOT IN TIME TO DETER
ANY POTENTIAL FZFG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLACK ICE FROM THE MELTING SNOW/SLUSH...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA ROADWAYS.

HAVE MADE THE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS PER THE
CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS
AREAS ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TOOK OUT MENTION OF -SN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NW
ZONES AS FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE SHALLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH NO VSBY ISSUES ATTM...BUT FOG OVERNIGHT IS
FCST BY ALL THE MODELS...DOWN TO VLIFR BY DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS
ABOVE FRZ NOW...BUT FCST WELL BELOW MID TO UPPER 20S FOR I-20 AND
RIGHT AT 32 AT KLFK BY 12Z. SOME FRZ FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
FCST ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KTXK AND VERY
NEAR TYR WITH SOME BRIEF SKC ONLY LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG. SFC
WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM. L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AID FOG.
ALOFT...CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 50KT BY
FL200. SATURATION TO 5KFT...IS BELOW FREEZING WITH BRF LIGHT ICE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  42  26  40  28 /   5   5   0   0   0
MLU  30  42  24  39  26 /   5   5   0   0   0
DEQ  26  36  20  33  24 /   5   5   0  20  20
TXK  27  38  23  35  25 /   5   5   0  20  20
ELD  27  40  23  36  25 /   5   5   0   0   0
TYR  27  40  26  38  29 /   0   5   0  20  20
GGG  29  42  27  39  28 /   0   5   0   0  20
LFK  34  49  31  45  32 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260418
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1018 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE OF THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS
SE INTO FAR SRN AR AND ERN TX...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FZFG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CLEARED AREAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE/HIGH
BNDRY LYR RH/S/LIGHT WINDS. THE LATEST FEW FRAMES OF THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT MORE
S THAN SE...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN BNDRY LYR WINDS THAT THE 00Z WRF
HAS PICKED UP ON...WHICH MAY VEER MORE NERLY OVER NW LA/EXTREME ERN TX
LATE. THUS...THOSE AREAS W OF GGG THAT ARE CLEAR NOW MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH THIS STRATUS LATE. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN
INCREASING LAYER OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SHIFTING QUICKLY E ALONG/N OF
THE RED RIVER OF N TX...ALONG THE BASE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
SWD INTO THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT NOT IN TIME TO DETER
ANY POTENTIAL FZFG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLACK ICE FROM THE MELTING SNOW/SLUSH...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA ROADWAYS.

HAVE MADE THE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS PER THE
CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS
AREAS ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TOOK OUT MENTION OF -SN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NW
ZONES AS FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE SHALLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH NO VSBY ISSUES ATTM...BUT FOG OVERNIGHT IS
FCST BY ALL THE MODELS...DOWN TO VLIFR BY DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS
ABOVE FRZ NOW...BUT FCST WELL BELOW MID TO UPPER 20S FOR I-20 AND
RIGHT AT 32 AT KLFK BY 12Z. SOME FRZ FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
FCST ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KTXK AND VERY
NEAR TYR WITH SOME BRIEF SKC ONLY LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG. SFC
WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM. L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AID FOG.
ALOFT...CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 50KT BY
FL200. SATURATION TO 5KFT...IS BELOW FREEZING WITH BRF LIGHT ICE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  42  26  40  28 /   5   5   0   0   0
MLU  30  42  24  39  26 /   5   5   0   0   0
DEQ  26  36  20  33  24 /   5   5   0  20  20
TXK  27  38  23  35  25 /   5   5   0  20  20
ELD  27  40  23  36  25 /   5   5   0   0   0
TYR  27  40  26  38  29 /   0   5   0  20  20
GGG  29  42  27  39  28 /   0   5   0   0  20
LFK  34  49  31  45  32 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 260012 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
612 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZONE UPDATE JUST ISSUED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH EXPIRED AT 00Z FOR MUCH OF SW AR. CAN/T
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THIS AREAS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AM ALSO WATCHING THE STRATUS SHIELD BEGINNING TO CLEAR
FROM THE NW ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN SECTIONS OF E
TX...WITH THE CLEARING LINE POSSIBLY CONTINUING TO SPREAD FARTHER
SE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT...AS
THE AMPLE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/SNOWPACK IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT/PATCHY FZFG OVERNIGHT WHERE THE SKY
CLEARS/TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AND ADDRESS
THIS IN THE MID-EVENING UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING BLACK ICE TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA BRIDGES/OVERPASSES AND SOME ROADWAYS TONIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. HAVE
ALREADY ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 260012 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
612 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZONE UPDATE JUST ISSUED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH EXPIRED AT 00Z FOR MUCH OF SW AR. CAN/T
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THIS AREAS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AM ALSO WATCHING THE STRATUS SHIELD BEGINNING TO CLEAR
FROM THE NW ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN SECTIONS OF E
TX...WITH THE CLEARING LINE POSSIBLY CONTINUING TO SPREAD FARTHER
SE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT...AS
THE AMPLE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/SNOWPACK IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT/PATCHY FZFG OVERNIGHT WHERE THE SKY
CLEARS/TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AND ADDRESS
THIS IN THE MID-EVENING UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING BLACK ICE TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA BRIDGES/OVERPASSES AND SOME ROADWAYS TONIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. HAVE
ALREADY ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260012 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
612 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZONE UPDATE JUST ISSUED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH EXPIRED AT 00Z FOR MUCH OF SW AR. CAN/T
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THIS AREAS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AM ALSO WATCHING THE STRATUS SHIELD BEGINNING TO CLEAR
FROM THE NW ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN SECTIONS OF E
TX...WITH THE CLEARING LINE POSSIBLY CONTINUING TO SPREAD FARTHER
SE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT...AS
THE AMPLE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/SNOWPACK IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT/PATCHY FZFG OVERNIGHT WHERE THE SKY
CLEARS/TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AND ADDRESS
THIS IN THE MID-EVENING UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING BLACK ICE TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA BRIDGES/OVERPASSES AND SOME ROADWAYS TONIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. HAVE
ALREADY ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 260012 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
612 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZONE UPDATE JUST ISSUED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH EXPIRED AT 00Z FOR MUCH OF SW AR. CAN/T
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THIS AREAS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AM ALSO WATCHING THE STRATUS SHIELD BEGINNING TO CLEAR
FROM THE NW ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN SECTIONS OF E
TX...WITH THE CLEARING LINE POSSIBLY CONTINUING TO SPREAD FARTHER
SE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT...AS
THE AMPLE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/SNOWPACK IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT/PATCHY FZFG OVERNIGHT WHERE THE SKY
CLEARS/TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AND ADDRESS
THIS IN THE MID-EVENING UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING BLACK ICE TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA BRIDGES/OVERPASSES AND SOME ROADWAYS TONIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. HAVE
ALREADY ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH NO VSBY ISSUES ATTM...BUT FOG OVERNIGHT IS
FCST BY ALL THE MODELS...DOWN TO VLIFR BY DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS
ABOVE FRZ NOW...BUT FCST WELL BELOW MID TO UPPER 20S FOR I-20 AND
RIGHT AT 32 AT KLFK BY 12Z. SOME FRZ FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
FCST ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KTXK AND VERY
NEAR TYR WITH SOME BRIEF SKC ONLY LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG. SFC
WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM. L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AID FOG.
ALOFT...CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 50KT BY
FL200. SATURATION TO 5KFT...IS BELOW FREEZING WITH BRF LIGHT ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT
HELPED PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION...HAD MOVED INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALLOWED SOME OF PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MELT ON THE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ROADWAYS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
EXPECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME
ROADS TO RE-FREEZE. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS WILL
WANT TO USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING OUT TONIGHT AND DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL START
TO MELT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. ON THE HEALS OF THIS DEPARTING
TROUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE AND BROAD
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE
PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE AND
COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND FRONT SIDE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPLY GULF MOISTURE
FOR A POTENTIAL WET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA REGION WHICH USUALLY SPELLS A WET
WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073.

LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 260000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH NO VSBY ISSUES ATTM...BUT FOG OVERNIGHT IS
FCST BY ALL THE MODELS...DOWN TO VLIFR BY DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS
ABOVE FRZ NOW...BUT FCST WELL BELOW MID TO UPPER 20S FOR I-20 AND
RIGHT AT 32 AT KLFK BY 12Z. SOME FRZ FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
FCST ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KTXK AND VERY
NEAR TYR WITH SOME BRIEF SKC ONLY LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG. SFC
WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM. L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AID FOG.
ALOFT...CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 50KT BY
FL200. SATURATION TO 5KFT...IS BELOW FREEZING WITH BRF LIGHT ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT
HELPED PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION...HAD MOVED INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALLOWED SOME OF PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MELT ON THE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ROADWAYS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
EXPECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME
ROADS TO RE-FREEZE. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS WILL
WANT TO USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING OUT TONIGHT AND DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL START
TO MELT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. ON THE HEALS OF THIS DEPARTING
TROUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE AND BROAD
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE
PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE AND
COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND FRONT SIDE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPLY GULF MOISTURE
FOR A POTENTIAL WET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA REGION WHICH USUALLY SPELLS A WET
WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073.

LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 260000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH NO VSBY ISSUES ATTM...BUT FOG OVERNIGHT IS
FCST BY ALL THE MODELS...DOWN TO VLIFR BY DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS
ABOVE FRZ NOW...BUT FCST WELL BELOW MID TO UPPER 20S FOR I-20 AND
RIGHT AT 32 AT KLFK BY 12Z. SOME FRZ FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
FCST ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KTXK AND VERY
NEAR TYR WITH SOME BRIEF SKC ONLY LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG. SFC
WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM. L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AID FOG.
ALOFT...CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 50KT BY
FL200. SATURATION TO 5KFT...IS BELOW FREEZING WITH BRF LIGHT ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT
HELPED PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION...HAD MOVED INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALLOWED SOME OF PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MELT ON THE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ROADWAYS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
EXPECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME
ROADS TO RE-FREEZE. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS WILL
WANT TO USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING OUT TONIGHT AND DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL START
TO MELT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. ON THE HEALS OF THIS DEPARTING
TROUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE AND BROAD
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE
PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE AND
COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND FRONT SIDE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPLY GULF MOISTURE
FOR A POTENTIAL WET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA REGION WHICH USUALLY SPELLS A WET
WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073.

LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 252245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
445 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT
HELPED PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION...HAD MOVED INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALLOWED SOME OF PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MELT ON THE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ROADWAYS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
EXPECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME
ROADS TO RE-FREEZE. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS WILL
WANT TO USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING OUT TONIGHT AND DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL START
TO MELT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. ON THE HEALS OF THIS DEPARTING
TROUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE AND BROAD
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE
PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE AND
COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND FRONT SIDE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPLY GULF MOISTURE
FOR A POTENTIAL WET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA REGION WHICH USUALLY SPELLS A WET
WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073.

LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 252245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
445 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT
HELPED PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION...HAD MOVED INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALLOWED SOME OF PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MELT ON THE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ROADWAYS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
EXPECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME
ROADS TO RE-FREEZE. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS WILL
WANT TO USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING OUT TONIGHT AND DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL START
TO MELT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. ON THE HEALS OF THIS DEPARTING
TROUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE AND BROAD
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE
PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE AND
COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND FRONT SIDE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPLY GULF MOISTURE
FOR A POTENTIAL WET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA REGION WHICH USUALLY SPELLS A WET
WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073.

LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 252245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
445 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT
HELPED PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION...HAD MOVED INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALLOWED SOME OF PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MELT ON THE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ROADWAYS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
EXPECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME
ROADS TO RE-FREEZE. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS WILL
WANT TO USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING OUT TONIGHT AND DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL START
TO MELT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. ON THE HEALS OF THIS DEPARTING
TROUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE AND BROAD
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE
PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE AND
COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND FRONT SIDE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPLY GULF MOISTURE
FOR A POTENTIAL WET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA REGION WHICH USUALLY SPELLS A WET
WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073.

LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 252245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
445 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT
HELPED PRODUCE THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION...HAD MOVED INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALLOWED SOME OF PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MELT ON THE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ROADWAYS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
EXPECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ON THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME
ROADS TO RE-FREEZE. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS WILL
WANT TO USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING OUT TONIGHT AND DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL START
TO MELT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. ON THE HEALS OF THIS DEPARTING
TROUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGE AND BROAD
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE
PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE AND
COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND FRONT SIDE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPLY GULF MOISTURE
FOR A POTENTIAL WET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA REGION WHICH USUALLY SPELLS A WET
WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  42  26  40  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  42  24  39  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  25  36  20  33  24 /  20  20   0  20  20
TXK  25  38  23  35  25 /  20  20   0  20  20
ELD  26  40  23  36  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  28  40  26  38  29 /   0   0   0  20  20
GGG  27  42  27  39  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  31  45  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073.

LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







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