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000
FXUS64 KSHV 062350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VCTS
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MLU AFTER 06/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  88  73  88 /  10  30  30  20
TXK  75  90  75  92 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  91  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  77  95  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 062350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VCTS
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MLU AFTER 06/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  88  73  88 /  10  30  30  20
TXK  75  90  75  92 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  91  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  77  95  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 062350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VCTS
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MLU AFTER 06/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  88  73  88 /  10  30  30  20
TXK  75  90  75  92 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  91  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  77  95  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 062014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR
N. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING
SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-30
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN
ANCHORING ITSELF OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SQUASH OUR CHANCES FOR ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION...AND WILL SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
ON A CLIMB. ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE TROPICAL ELY WAVE ACTION
EMBEDDED IN THE UNDERSIDE OF THE RIDGE... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SPARSE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL DEALING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS LATE HOUR OF THE
MORNING BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUD HEIGHT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT OR
SCATTER OUR TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTERNOON 17Z. MIXING WILL
RESULT IN SOME STRONGER SSW WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE
18Z TAF PACKAGE AS COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A 3-5SM REDUCTION IN VSBY AN HOUR
OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL CLIMB AND OR
SCATTER OUT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME ON TUE WITH STRONG SSW WINDS
ONCE AGAIN MIXING DOWN BY LATE MORNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  88  73  88 /  10  30  30  20
TXK  75  90  75  92 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  91  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  77  95  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 062014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR
N. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING
SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-30
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN
ANCHORING ITSELF OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SQUASH OUR CHANCES FOR ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION...AND WILL SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
ON A CLIMB. ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE TROPICAL ELY WAVE ACTION
EMBEDDED IN THE UNDERSIDE OF THE RIDGE... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SPARSE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL DEALING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS LATE HOUR OF THE
MORNING BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUD HEIGHT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT OR
SCATTER OUR TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTERNOON 17Z. MIXING WILL
RESULT IN SOME STRONGER SSW WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE
18Z TAF PACKAGE AS COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A 3-5SM REDUCTION IN VSBY AN HOUR
OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL CLIMB AND OR
SCATTER OUT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME ON TUE WITH STRONG SSW WINDS
ONCE AGAIN MIXING DOWN BY LATE MORNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  88  73  88 /  10  30  30  20
TXK  75  90  75  92 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  91  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  77  95  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 061603
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL DEALING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS LATE HOUR OF THE
MORNING BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUD HEIGHT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT OR
SCATTER OUR TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTERNOON 17Z. MIXING WILL
RESULT IN SOME STRONGER SSW WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE
18Z TAF PACKAGE AS COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A 3-5SM REDUCTION IN VSBY AN HOUR
OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL CLIMB AND OR
SCATTER OUT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME ON TUE WITH STRONG SSW WINDS
ONCE AGAIN MIXING DOWN BY LATE MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR N. MORNING
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER MANY LOCATIONS...BUT VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MIXING HAS ALREADY COMMENCED. HOWEVER...AREA OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS IN PLACE OVER SERN OK/SW AR/NE TX. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT...IF IT DOES AT ALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO MAINLY UPDATE THE TIMING OF
THINNING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AT MOST SPOTS AS OF 10 AM...AND THIS SHOULD PUT US RIGHT ON
PAR TO REACH OUR FCST AFTN MAX TEMPS. ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
FCST FOR TODAY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...SO WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY
OTHER CHANGES ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 061603
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL DEALING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS LATE HOUR OF THE
MORNING BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUD HEIGHT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT OR
SCATTER OUR TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTERNOON 17Z. MIXING WILL
RESULT IN SOME STRONGER SSW WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE
18Z TAF PACKAGE AS COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A 3-5SM REDUCTION IN VSBY AN HOUR
OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL CLIMB AND OR
SCATTER OUT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME ON TUE WITH STRONG SSW WINDS
ONCE AGAIN MIXING DOWN BY LATE MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR N. MORNING
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER MANY LOCATIONS...BUT VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MIXING HAS ALREADY COMMENCED. HOWEVER...AREA OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS IN PLACE OVER SERN OK/SW AR/NE TX. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT...IF IT DOES AT ALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO MAINLY UPDATE THE TIMING OF
THINNING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AT MOST SPOTS AS OF 10 AM...AND THIS SHOULD PUT US RIGHT ON
PAR TO REACH OUR FCST AFTN MAX TEMPS. ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
FCST FOR TODAY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...SO WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY
OTHER CHANGES ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 061549
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1049 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR N. MORNING
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER MANY LOCATIONS...BUT VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MIXING HAS ALREADY COMMENCED. HOWEVER...AREA OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS IN PLACE OVER SERN OK/SW AR/NE TX. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT...IF IT DOES AT ALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO MAINLY UPDATE THE TIMING OF
THINNING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AT MOST SPOTS AS OF 10 AM...AND THIS SHOULD PUT US RIGHT ON
PAR TO REACH OUR FCST AFTN MAX TEMPS. ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
FCST FOR TODAY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...SO WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY
OTHER CHANGES ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL START OUT THE FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING WHEN THE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE. VFR CATEGORIES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 07/08Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AND SPREAD FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NORTH INTO REMAINING SITES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 7-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
/06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S
WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
NO LIGHT FOG AROUND...BUT MAYBE SOME HAZE LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND COMPRESS THE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS NICE AND
GREEN AND THE SOIL IS UNUSUALLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK FOR A SHORT WHILE. HOWEVER...AS THE
GROUND QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE SURFACE...WITH THIS SUN ANGLE EVEN
THE GREEN UP WILL TRANSPIRE OUT MOISTURE QUICKLY AND MID TO EVEN
UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRIEF STALL IN THE UPPER
RIDGING...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING HIGH AND DRY FOR A WHILE WITH A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SEA BREEZE OR EASTERLY WAVES UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE COULD SET UP BY THE WEEKEND. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 061549
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1049 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR N. MORNING
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER MANY LOCATIONS...BUT VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MIXING HAS ALREADY COMMENCED. HOWEVER...AREA OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS IN PLACE OVER SERN OK/SW AR/NE TX. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT...IF IT DOES AT ALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO MAINLY UPDATE THE TIMING OF
THINNING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AT MOST SPOTS AS OF 10 AM...AND THIS SHOULD PUT US RIGHT ON
PAR TO REACH OUR FCST AFTN MAX TEMPS. ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
FCST FOR TODAY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...SO WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY
OTHER CHANGES ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL START OUT THE FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING WHEN THE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE. VFR CATEGORIES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 07/08Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AND SPREAD FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NORTH INTO REMAINING SITES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 7-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
/06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S
WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
NO LIGHT FOG AROUND...BUT MAYBE SOME HAZE LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND COMPRESS THE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS NICE AND
GREEN AND THE SOIL IS UNUSUALLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK FOR A SHORT WHILE. HOWEVER...AS THE
GROUND QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE SURFACE...WITH THIS SUN ANGLE EVEN
THE GREEN UP WILL TRANSPIRE OUT MOISTURE QUICKLY AND MID TO EVEN
UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRIEF STALL IN THE UPPER
RIDGING...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING HIGH AND DRY FOR A WHILE WITH A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SEA BREEZE OR EASTERLY WAVES UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE COULD SET UP BY THE WEEKEND. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 061220
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL START OUT THE FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING WHEN THE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RRESTRICTIONS WILL INPROVE. VFR CATEGORIES WILL
CONTINIUE UNTIL AROUND 07/08Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AND SPREAD FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NORTH INTO REMAINING SITES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 7-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S
WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
NO LIGHT FOG AROUND...BUT MAYBE SOME HAZE LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND COMPRESS THE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS NICE AND
GREEN AND THE SOIL IS UNUSUALLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK FOR A SHORT WHILE. HOWEVER...AS THE
GROUND QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE SURFACE...WITH THIS SUN ANGLE EVEN
THE GREEN UP WILL TRANSPIRE OUT MOISTURE QUICKLY AND MID TO EVEN
UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRIEF STALL IN THE UPPER
RIDGING...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING HIGH AND DRY FOR A WHILE WITH A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SEA BREEZE OR EASTERLY WAVES UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE COULD SET UP BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 061220
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL START OUT THE FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING WHEN THE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RRESTRICTIONS WILL INPROVE. VFR CATEGORIES WILL
CONTINIUE UNTIL AROUND 07/08Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AND SPREAD FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NORTH INTO REMAINING SITES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 7-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S
WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
NO LIGHT FOG AROUND...BUT MAYBE SOME HAZE LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND COMPRESS THE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS NICE AND
GREEN AND THE SOIL IS UNUSUALLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK FOR A SHORT WHILE. HOWEVER...AS THE
GROUND QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE SURFACE...WITH THIS SUN ANGLE EVEN
THE GREEN UP WILL TRANSPIRE OUT MOISTURE QUICKLY AND MID TO EVEN
UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRIEF STALL IN THE UPPER
RIDGING...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING HIGH AND DRY FOR A WHILE WITH A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SEA BREEZE OR EASTERLY WAVES UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE COULD SET UP BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 061220
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL START OUT THE FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING WHEN THE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RRESTRICTIONS WILL INPROVE. VFR CATEGORIES WILL
CONTINIUE UNTIL AROUND 07/08Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AND SPREAD FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NORTH INTO REMAINING SITES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 7-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S
WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
NO LIGHT FOG AROUND...BUT MAYBE SOME HAZE LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND COMPRESS THE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS NICE AND
GREEN AND THE SOIL IS UNUSUALLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK FOR A SHORT WHILE. HOWEVER...AS THE
GROUND QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE SURFACE...WITH THIS SUN ANGLE EVEN
THE GREEN UP WILL TRANSPIRE OUT MOISTURE QUICKLY AND MID TO EVEN
UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRIEF STALL IN THE UPPER
RIDGING...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING HIGH AND DRY FOR A WHILE WITH A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SEA BREEZE OR EASTERLY WAVES UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE COULD SET UP BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 061220
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL START OUT THE FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING WHEN THE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RRESTRICTIONS WILL INPROVE. VFR CATEGORIES WILL
CONTINIUE UNTIL AROUND 07/08Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AND SPREAD FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NORTH INTO REMAINING SITES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 7-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S
WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
NO LIGHT FOG AROUND...BUT MAYBE SOME HAZE LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND COMPRESS THE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS NICE AND
GREEN AND THE SOIL IS UNUSUALLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK FOR A SHORT WHILE. HOWEVER...AS THE
GROUND QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE SURFACE...WITH THIS SUN ANGLE EVEN
THE GREEN UP WILL TRANSPIRE OUT MOISTURE QUICKLY AND MID TO EVEN
UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRIEF STALL IN THE UPPER
RIDGING...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING HIGH AND DRY FOR A WHILE WITH A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SEA BREEZE OR EASTERLY WAVES UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE COULD SET UP BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 061000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S
WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
NO LIGHT FOG AROUND...BUT MAYBE SOME HAZE LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND COMPRESS THE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS NICE AND
GREEN AND THE SOIL IS UNUSUALLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK FOR A SHORT WHILE. HOWEVER...AS THE
GROUND QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE SURFACE...WITH THIS SUN ANGLE EVEN
THE GREEN UP WILL TRANSPIRE OUT MOISTURE QUICKLY AND MID TO EVEN
UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRIEF STALL IN THE UPPER
RIDGING...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING HIGH AND DRY FOR A WHILE WITH A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SEA BREEZE OR EASTERLY WAVES UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE COULD SET UP BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 061000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S
WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
NO LIGHT FOG AROUND...BUT MAYBE SOME HAZE LATER TODAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AND COMPRESS THE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS NICE AND
GREEN AND THE SOIL IS UNUSUALLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK FOR A SHORT WHILE. HOWEVER...AS THE
GROUND QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE SURFACE...WITH THIS SUN ANGLE EVEN
THE GREEN UP WILL TRANSPIRE OUT MOISTURE QUICKLY AND MID TO EVEN
UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRIEF STALL IN THE UPPER
RIDGING...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL...WE ARE LOOKING HIGH AND DRY FOR A WHILE WITH A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SEA BREEZE OR EASTERLY WAVES UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGE COULD SET UP BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  74  89  73 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  92  75  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  93  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  94  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 060440
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015


.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  68  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  73  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  69  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  76  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 060440
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015


.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  68  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  73  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  69  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  76  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 060330
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BUT A FEW
SHWRS AND TSTMS MAY STILL LINGER TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SO HAVE
LET SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS WE HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW FORECAST
MINIMUMS AT SOME OF OUR ERN SITES DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVER THESE RAIN-SOAKED
AREAS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR EAST TO
MAINLY LOW AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S
IN PARTS OF E TX WHERE NO RAINFALL PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT MUCH ELSE TO CRITIQUE. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS BY 06/04Z. TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN MISSOURI WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. EVEN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS
TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. ASCENT
FROM THE MISSOURI SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KADF...TO NEAR HOMER
LA...TO NEAR KAQV. COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME
TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONCERN EXISTS THAT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL FORM PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR THAT SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL OCCUR AS STORM COLLAPSE
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS GENERALLY MOVING EASTERLY BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD SO SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
BACKBUILDING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS W TX NEWD INTO OK.
THESE STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER AS THE SW TX SFC LOW EJECTS NEWD AND THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST OVER LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RETURN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL..THIS FORECAST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEYOND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOILS TO GRADUALLY DRY AND TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  68  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  73  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  69  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  76  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 060330
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BUT A FEW
SHWRS AND TSTMS MAY STILL LINGER TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SO HAVE
LET SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS WE HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW FORECAST
MINIMUMS AT SOME OF OUR ERN SITES DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVER THESE RAIN-SOAKED
AREAS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR EAST TO
MAINLY LOW AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S
IN PARTS OF E TX WHERE NO RAINFALL PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT MUCH ELSE TO CRITIQUE. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS BY 06/04Z. TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN MISSOURI WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. EVEN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS
TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. ASCENT
FROM THE MISSOURI SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KADF...TO NEAR HOMER
LA...TO NEAR KAQV. COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME
TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONCERN EXISTS THAT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL FORM PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR THAT SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL OCCUR AS STORM COLLAPSE
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS GENERALLY MOVING EASTERLY BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD SO SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
BACKBUILDING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS W TX NEWD INTO OK.
THESE STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER AS THE SW TX SFC LOW EJECTS NEWD AND THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST OVER LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RETURN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL..THIS FORECAST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEYOND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOILS TO GRADUALLY DRY AND TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  68  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  73  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  69  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  76  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 052320
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS BY 06/04Z. TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN MISSOURI WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. EVEN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS
TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. ASCENT
FROM THE MISSOURI SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KADF...TO NEAR HOMER
LA...TO NEAR KAQV. COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME
TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONCERN EXISTS THAT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL FORM PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR THAT SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL OCCUR AS STORM COLLAPSE
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS GENERALLY MOVING EASTERLY BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD SO SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
BACKBUILDING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS W TX NEWD INTO OK.
THESE STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER AS THE SW TX SFC LOW EJECTS NEWD AND THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST OVER LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RETURN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL..THIS FORECAST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEYOND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOILS TO GRADUALLY DRY AND TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  74  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  73  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  75  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 052320
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS BY 06/04Z. TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN MISSOURI WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. EVEN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS
TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. ASCENT
FROM THE MISSOURI SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KADF...TO NEAR HOMER
LA...TO NEAR KAQV. COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME
TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONCERN EXISTS THAT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL FORM PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR THAT SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL OCCUR AS STORM COLLAPSE
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS GENERALLY MOVING EASTERLY BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD SO SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
BACKBUILDING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS W TX NEWD INTO OK.
THESE STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER AS THE SW TX SFC LOW EJECTS NEWD AND THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST OVER LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RETURN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL..THIS FORECAST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEYOND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOILS TO GRADUALLY DRY AND TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  74  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  73  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  75  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 052120
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN MISSOURI WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. EVEN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS
TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. ASCENT
FROM THE MISSOURI SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KADF...TO NEAR HOMER
LA...TO NEAR KAQV. COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME
TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONCERN EXISTS THAT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL FORM PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR THAT SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL OCCUR AS STORM COLLAPSE
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS GENERALLY MOVING EASTERLY BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD SO SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
BACKBUILDING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS W TX NEWD INTO OK.
THESE STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER AS THE SW TX SFC LOW EJECTS NEWD AND THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST OVER LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RETURN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL..THIS FORECAST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEYOND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOILS TO GRADUALLY DRY AND TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  74  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  73  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  75  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 052120
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN MISSOURI WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. EVEN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS
TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. ASCENT
FROM THE MISSOURI SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KADF...TO NEAR HOMER
LA...TO NEAR KAQV. COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME
TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONCERN EXISTS THAT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL FORM PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR THAT SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL OCCUR AS STORM COLLAPSE
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS GENERALLY MOVING EASTERLY BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD SO SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
BACKBUILDING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 03Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS W TX NEWD INTO OK.
THESE STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER AS THE SW TX SFC LOW EJECTS NEWD AND THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST OVER LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RETURN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL..THIS FORECAST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEYOND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOILS TO GRADUALLY DRY AND TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  73  90  73  89 /  30  10  10  30
TXK  74  91  74  90 /  30  10  10  20
ELD  73  92  73  92 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  75  92  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  75  93  75  92 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  77  93  75  93 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051639
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT A LEFT OVER SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N LA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH THE AID OF LATE MORNING HEATING...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TX INTO WEST CENTRAL LA.

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL KEEP VCTS GOING FOR ALL BUT THE TYR
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.

TERMINALS IN AND AROUND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF LIMITED VSBYS.

EXPECTING A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE CU FIELD CLIMBING AND SCATTERING
OUT BY 16Z MON.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  30  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 051639
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT A LEFT OVER SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N LA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH THE AID OF LATE MORNING HEATING...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TX INTO WEST CENTRAL LA.

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL KEEP VCTS GOING FOR ALL BUT THE TYR
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.

TERMINALS IN AND AROUND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF LIMITED VSBYS.

EXPECTING A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE CU FIELD CLIMBING AND SCATTERING
OUT BY 16Z MON.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  30  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051609 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND TRAILING INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OFF THE TERMINAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO MVFR INTO THE MORNING WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06/08Z-06/14Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  30  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051609 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND TRAILING INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OFF THE TERMINAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO MVFR INTO THE MORNING WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06/08Z-06/14Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  30  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 051258
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
758 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND TRAILING INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OFF THE TERMINAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO MVFR INTO THE MORNING WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06/08Z-06/14Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051258
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
758 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND TRAILING INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OFF THE TERMINAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO MVFR INTO THE MORNING WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06/08Z-06/14Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 051013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 051013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050442
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 05/14Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 050442
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 05/14Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050259 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY MOVED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH
OF THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF KTYR TO
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FARTHER NW IN
SRN OK HAS BEEN QUICKLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS THE REGION SO
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS HAS LARGELY STABILIZED...SOME MID LVL
DRY AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THE MAIN VORT MAX IS
MOVING FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM US. THIS WOULD ALL TEND TO LIMIT
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR
SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IN
FACT...THE 00Z NAM IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO SO HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

THE PRECIP AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO FALL BELOW FCST MIN TEMP
VALUES. LOCATIONS THAT FELL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F EARLIER THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR TEMPS RISE A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED THE MIN TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LOWS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN MET AND THEN EDITED THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED IN THOSE COOL SPOTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 050259 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY MOVED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH
OF THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF KTYR TO
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FARTHER NW IN
SRN OK HAS BEEN QUICKLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS THE REGION SO
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS HAS LARGELY STABILIZED...SOME MID LVL
DRY AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THE MAIN VORT MAX IS
MOVING FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM US. THIS WOULD ALL TEND TO LIMIT
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR
SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IN
FACT...THE 00Z NAM IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO SO HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

THE PRECIP AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO FALL BELOW FCST MIN TEMP
VALUES. LOCATIONS THAT FELL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F EARLIER THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR TEMPS RISE A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED THE MIN TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LOWS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN MET AND THEN EDITED THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED IN THOSE COOL SPOTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050035 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 050035 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041951
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SSEWD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR CLARKSVILLE...SEWD TO NEAR SHREVEPORT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DOES APPEAR TO BE MAKING SOME VERY SLOW SWWD PROGRESS. LATEST HI-
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE CONVECTION S OF I-20 BY 00Z. NOT
COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE VERY SLOW
SWD PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS. HAVE KEPT THE ONGOING CONSERVATIVE
POPS FOR TONIGHT...AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PLAY
A ROLE IN DISSIPATING STORMS. THEN LATE TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SEEN SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM...AND WILL
ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO REEVALUATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE THE
REGION BEGINS TO DRY OUT AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REINFORCE ITSELF OVER OUR REGION...AND
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RATCHET UPWARDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE DURING TUESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS OK/AR. THIS WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS...BUT WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE NE.

CONSENSUS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE PD...SO HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041849
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION... WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION
CO...UNION PARISH AND CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30.
OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID
TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST. THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE
TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE WATCH POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR TRENDS INTO
HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF TEXARKANA RIGHT
NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. WE/LL
WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  92  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  92  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041849
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION... WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION
CO...UNION PARISH AND CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30.
OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID
TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST. THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE
TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE WATCH POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR TRENDS INTO
HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF TEXARKANA RIGHT
NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. WE/LL
WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  92  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  92  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 041543
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041543
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




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