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000
FXUS64 KSHV 310445
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/06Z TAF
PD. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR BY 01/00Z. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310202
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
902 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG INTO SE OK...TO MOVE ACROSS AREA TONIGHT.
LATE NIGHT BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...AND A FEW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. THESE FACTORS WILL SOMEWHAT CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT...
THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN VALLEY
REGIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/00Z TAF
PD. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 302334
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/00Z TAF
PD. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
/05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 302104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 30/20Z...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KSPS...TO
KMLC...AND INTO NW AR. THE FRONT CAN ALSO BE LOCATED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF IT FROM N TX NEWD INTO NRN AR AND SE MO.
FRONT HAS GOTTEN QUITE THE PUSH SWD TODAY THANKS TO A 35 KT JET
STREAK AT H85 DIVING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER N TX AND AR TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT COMPARISONS OF 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM KSHV/KFWD/KLZK INDICATE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER N TX AND AR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A POP-FREE FCST WITH THIS
FROPA. COLD FRONT ITSELF IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AS EVIDENCE BY TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S IN NRN OK.

STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO DIVE
SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AS A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SWD INTO THE SRN CONUS. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO OUR FIRST
FREEZING TEMPS IN MANY LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-20. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA N OF I-20 FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE
FOR SUNDAY MORNING BUT INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AND SELY SFC WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY EXTREME SWRN
AR.

THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE RETURN OF SLY SFC WINDS AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO A FAST RECOVERY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH RETURNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN EVENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS ARE FCSTING QUITE
A BIT OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY BUT THE FINE DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF
PD. A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A KOKC TO KPPF
LINE...WILL CONTINUE RACING SEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT NLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301807
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
107 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF
PD. A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A KOKC TO KPPF
LINE...WILL CONTINUE RACING SEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT NLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING UNDER
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE RETURN OF SLY WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
ON ITS WAY BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE NW...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE...INTO NW OK...AND INTO NE KS. GOING FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  50  71  36  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MLU  74  46  71  35  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEQ  75  43  66  28  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  74  50  68  33  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
ELD  73  47  67  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TYR  77  51  68  36  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  48  70  35  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  78  49  75  39  63 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301538 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1038 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING UNDER
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE RETURN OF SLY WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
ON ITS WAY BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE NW...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE...INTO NW OK...AND INTO NE KS. GOING FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS E TX/NW LA...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN AC FROM THE NW AFTER 18Z ACROSS SE OK/SW AR AND
EVENTUALLY NCNTRL LA. THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD ALSO
SEE A SCT CU FIELD AFFECT THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AFTER 00Z...BEFORE
QUICKLY SCOURING BY 06Z. SFC RIDGING WILL RESULT IN LT/VRB WINDS
TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NW AROUND 5KTS LATE WITH THE NEXT COLD FROPA. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS SPRAWLED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OR CALM IN MANY CASES. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR OVERHEAD
WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE FORTIES ALMOST AREA WIDE. WE ARE CLOSING IN
ON DEW POINTS WITH DEW AND SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...A STELLAR DAY IS AHEAD RIGHT AROUND
PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS DESPITE THE COOLER START. OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMING AROUND TO S AND E AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER.

OVERNIGHT THE NEXT APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW
AND HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO DISPLACE...SO A DRY PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX...EVEN A CU FIELD NOW IN THE AUSTIN AREA...COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
ACTIVITY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH. THE FRESH ARCTIC WINDS
WILL BE BLOWING AND GOING SOUTH TOMORROW AS THIS NEXT HIGH POWERS
INTO THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TOMORROW
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SATURDAY MORNING AT DAYBREAK OR
SO...THE WINDS WILL SLACK AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPIRED FROM VEGETATION AND SOIL FOR SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE
I-CORRIDOR ONLY...BUT THE AIR WILL BE VERY DRY WITH 20 DEW POINTS.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND THIS FROST MAY ONLY OCCUR IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AREA WIDE TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. OUR HIGHS
WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY NOV AVERAGES.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FROST MAY AFFECT A FEW MORE LOCALES EARLY SUNDAY AREA WIDE.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WHILE RADIATING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROM THERE THE WINDS QUICKLY WARM US IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS NOT A LOT
DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING INTO ELECTION DAY. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL BE SPREADING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
STILL A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING FOR MANY EXPECTED TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EVENING AS RESULTS TRICKLE IN...THE RAIN WILL BE PICKING UP AREA
WIDE. WEDNESDAY IS STILL A LACKING TOTAL AGREEMENT AS THE GFS
LOSES THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE SLOWER EURO IS
SLOWLY RAMPING UP DURING THE WEDNESDAY. SO FOR NOW 50/50 CONTINUES
TO BE REASONABLE FOR OUR EXPECTATIONS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  50  71  36  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MLU  74  46  71  35  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEQ  75  43  66  28  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  74  50  68  33  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
ELD  73  47  67  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TYR  77  51  68  36  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  48  70  35  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  78  49  75  39  63 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301134 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS E TX/NW LA...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN AC FROM THE NW AFTER 18Z ACROSS SE OK/SW AR AND
EVENTUALLY NCNTRL LA. THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD ALSO
SEE A SCT CU FIELD AFFECT THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AFTER 00Z...BEFORE
QUICKLY SCOURING BY 06Z. SFC RIDGING WILL RESULT IN LT/VRB WINDS
TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NW AROUND 5KTS LATE WITH THE NEXT COLD FROPA. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS SPRAWLED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OR CALM IN MANY CASES. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR OVERHEAD
WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE FORTIES ALMOST AREA WIDE. WE ARE CLOSING IN
ON DEW POINTS WITH DEW AND SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...A STELLAR DAY IS AHEAD RIGHT AROUND
PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS DESPITE THE COOLER START. OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMING AROUND TO S AND E AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER.

OVERNIGHT THE NEXT APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW
AND HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO DISPLACE...SO A DRY PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX...EVEN A CU FIELD NOW IN THE AUSTIN AREA...COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
ACTIVITY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH. THE FRESH ARCTIC WINDS
WILL BE BLOWING AND GOING SOUTH TOMORROW AS THIS NEXT HIGH POWERS
INTO THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TOMORROW
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SATURDAY MORNING AT DAYBREAK OR
SO...THE WINDS WILL SLACK AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPIRED FROM VEGETATION AND SOIL FOR SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE
I-CORRIDOR ONLY...BUT THE AIR WILL BE VERY DRY WITH 20 DEW POINTS.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND THIS FROST MAY ONLY OCCUR IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AREA WIDE TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. OUR HIGHS
WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY NOV AVERAGES.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FROST MAY AFFECT A FEW MORE LOCALES EARLY SUNDAY AREA WIDE.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WHILE RADIATING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROM THERE THE WINDS QUICKLY WARM US IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS NOT A LOT
DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING INTO ELECTION DAY. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL BE SPREADING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
STILL A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING FOR MANY EXPECTED TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EVENING AS RESULTS TRICKLE IN...THE RAIN WILL BE PICKING UP AREA
WIDE. WEDNESDAY IS STILL A LACKING TOTAL AGREEMENT AS THE GFS
LOSES THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE SLOWER EURO IS
SLOWLY RAMPING UP DURING THE WEDNESDAY. SO FOR NOW 50/50 CONTINUES
TO BE REASONABLE FOR OUR EXPECTATIONS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  50  71  36  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MLU  74  46  71  35  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEQ  75  43  66  28  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  74  50  68  33  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
ELD  73  47  67  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TYR  77  51  68  36  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  48  70  35  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  78  49  75  39  63 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS SPRAWLED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OR CALM IN MANY CASES. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR OVERHEAD
WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE FORTIES ALMOST AREA WIDE. WE ARE CLOSING IN
ON DEW POINTS WITH DEW AND SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...A STELLAR DAY IS AHEAD RIGHT AROUND
PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS DESPITE THE COOLER START. OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMING AROUND TO S AND E AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER.

OVERNIGHT THE NEXT APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW
AND HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO DISPLACE...SO A DRY PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX...EVEN A CU FIELD NOW IN THE AUSTIN AREA...COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
ACTIVITY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH. THE FRESH ARCTIC WINDS
WILL BE BLOWING AND GOING SOUTH TOMORROW AS THIS NEXT HIGH POWERS
INTO THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TOMORROW
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SATURDAY MORNING AT DAYBREAK OR
SO...THE WINDS WILL SLACK AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPIRED FROM VEGETATION AND SOIL FOR SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE
I-CORRIDOR ONLY...BUT THE AIR WILL BE VERY DRY WITH 20 DEW POINTS.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND THIS FROST MAY ONLY OCCUR IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AREA WIDE TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. OUR HIGHS
WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY NOV AVERAGES.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FROST MAY AFFECT A FEW MORE LOCALES EARLY SUNDAY AREA WIDE.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WHILE RADIATING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROM THERE THE WINDS QUICKLY WARM US IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS NOT A LOT
DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING INTO ELECTION DAY. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL BE SPREADING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
STILL A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING FOR MANY EXPECTED TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EVENING AS RESULTS TRICKLE IN...THE RAIN WILL BE PICKING UP AREA
WIDE. WEDNESDAY IS STILL A LACKING TOTAL AGREEMENT AS THE GFS
LOSES THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE SLOWER EURO IS
SLOWLY RAMPING UP DURING THE WEDNESDAY. SO FOR NOW 50/50 CONTINUES
TO BE REASONABLE FOR OUR EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  50  71  36  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MLU  74  46  71  35  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEQ  75  43  66  28  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  74  50  68  33  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
ELD  73  47  67  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TYR  77  51  68  36  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  48  70  35  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  78  49  75  39  63 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300447
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 6 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  52  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  47  72  49  68  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  40  73  45  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  75  52  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  44  72  48  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  74  52  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  73  51  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  77  51  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05








000
FXUS64 KSHV 300447
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 6 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  52  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  47  72  49  68  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  40  73  45  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  75  52  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  44  72  48  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  74  52  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  73  51  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  77  51  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05








000
FXUS64 KSHV 300316
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1016 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT HAS LEFT US WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
AND 50S...NEAR-CALM WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE A
GOOD COOL DOWN TONIGHT. THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL
NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 6 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  52  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  47  72  49  68  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  40  73  45  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  75  52  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  44  72  48  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  74  52  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  73  51  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  77  51  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 292327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 6 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  52  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  47  72  49  68  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  40  73  45  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  75  52  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  44  72  48  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  74  52  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  73  51  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  77  51  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 292057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
357 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE GULF COAST. A SFC HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND WITH LOW TEMPS
FALLING BELOW 50 DEGREES F ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/EXTREME SW AR. SFC HIGH
WILL SHIFT EWD ON THURSDAY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. MEAGER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP THIS FROPA DRY BUT THE BIG NEWS WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
THE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LIKELY
THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY/SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AREAWIDE
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND N OF I-30 SATURDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND SWLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM AND MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWD ONCE
AGAIN AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE ROCKIES COMMENCES AND BRINGS
LOW LVL SLY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HRS FASTER WITH THE FROPA AND ONSET OF PRECIP. TRIED TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST
ISSUANCES. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRESENT WITH MUCH OF
THE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THIS IS STILL GOING TO BE THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR LAST TERMINAL LOCATION (LFK)
ATTM WITH POST FRONTAL NE WINDS NOTED AT ALL REMAINING TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY LOW VFR CEILINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH
OF LFK TO SOUTH OF TVR WITH THIS CLOUD COVER MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH
ATTM. THUS...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WELL.

SFC RIDGING SETS UP OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. A RETURN
TO SE WINDS AND EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  52  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  47  72  49  68  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  40  73  45  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  75  52  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  44  72  48  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  74  52  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  73  51  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  77  51  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291804
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR LAST TERMINAL LOCATION (LFK)
ATTM WITH POST FRONTAL NE WINDS NOTED AT ALL REMAINING TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY LOW VFR CEILINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH
OF LFK TO SOUTH OF TVR WITH THIS CLOUD COVER MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH
ATTM. THUS...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WELL.

SFC RIDGING SETS UP OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. A RETURN
TO SE WINDS AND EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHWRS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR ALOFT IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SO WILL
ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
SKY GRIDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE DRY AIR INVADES. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
WERE LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  47  76  50  72 /  10   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  45  74  47  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEQ  76  39  74  43  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
TXK  74  46  74  50  67 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  44  74  46  68 /  10   0  10  10   0
TYR  75  49  76  50  70 /  10   0  10  10   0
GGG  75  46  76  49  71 /  10   0  10  10   0
LFK  77  51  78  49  74 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09







000
FXUS64 KSHV 291608 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHWRS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR ALOFT IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SO WILL
ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
SKY GRIDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE DRY AIR INVADES. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
WERE LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING ALONG/JUST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A CLL...TO LFK...TO S OF A IER...TO NEAR
HEZ LINE AS OF 11Z...WITH THE LOW CIGS AS FAR N AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA /S OF
MLU/ AS WELL. SHOULD SEE CIGS CLEAR FROM N TO S TODAY...EVENTUALLY
CLEARING THE LFK TERMINAL BY 00Z THURSDAY. ONCE THE CIGS DO
CLEAR...SKC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. NNE WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT NE OR LT/VRB
AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH ALL BUT TOLEDO BEND AND KISATCHIE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FROM HALL SUMMIT
TO MONROE. OUR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE QUITE VARIED WITH
UPPER FORTIES AND LOW TO MID 50S WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE
NORTH AND GENERALLY RANGING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE
UNDER THE CLOUDS. OVERALL...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GIVING ONE LAST GOOD PUSH THIS MORNING...BUT WITH STILL
SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM DEEP EAST
TEXAS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HEATING. WE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL SEE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. OUR VAD IS SHOWING SOME DECENT DEPTH TO
THE N/NE FLOW OF CCA TO 3KFT AND SHOULD ACHIEVE 5KFT OR SO BY THIS
EVENING. NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHING NOW AND WILL LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SET TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDY DAY WITH SLACKING OVERNIGHT AND VERY RICH
CCA TAKING US DOWN IN THE LOW...BUT MOSTLY MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
AN AVERAGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WE COULD WELL SEE AN EARLY FREEZE
UP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OK/AR. EVEN OUR HIGHS WILL BE SOME
10-15 DEGREES COLDER ON SATURDAY...BUT START TO WARM ON SUNDAY. WE
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LOWS THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY A.M. MAY WIN OUT AS THE COLDEST OVERALL AND WITH CALMER
WINDS AND IT WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIALLY FROSTY MORNING. SO
TENDER PLANTS WILL MORE THAN BARE WATCHING AND LOOK TO NEED
PROTECTION FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. NORTH OF I-30 MAY AGAIN SEE
SOME VALLEY FREEZING READING SCATTERED UP NORTH WHICH IS A LITTLE
EARLY FOR MID FALL...BUT THIS IS A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL
DROP IN QUICKLY SO AS NOT TO MODIFY MUCH BY THE TIME IT SETS UP
SHOP. USUALLY WE SEE THE FIRST FREEZE UP NORTH IN THE FIRST OR
SECOND WEEK OF NOV. DOWN ALONG I-20 IT IS USUALLY BY MID NOVEMBER
OR SO. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE HERE
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS RAINFALL...THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE BACK AND FORTH NOW FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND EVEN SOMEWHAT
DRIER FOR TUESDAY. THE WETTER PERIOD MAY BE LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT TOTALS WITH STILL A
GOOD TROPICAL FETCH OFF OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BLENDED INTO THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  47  76  50  72 /  10   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  45  74  47  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEQ  76  39  74  43  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
TXK  74  46  74  50  67 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  44  74  46  68 /  10   0  10  10   0
TYR  75  49  76  50  70 /  10   0  10  10   0
GGG  75  46  76  49  71 /  10   0  10  10   0
LFK  77  51  78  49  74 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/03







000
FXUS64 KSHV 291142 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING ALONG/JUST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A CLL...TO LFK...TO S OF A IER...TO NEAR
HEZ LINE AS OF 11Z...WITH THE LOW CIGS AS FAR N AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA /S OF
MLU/ AS WELL. SHOULD SEE CIGS CLEAR FROM N TO S TODAY...EVENTUALLY
CLEARING THE LFK TERMINAL BY 00Z THURSDAY. ONCE THE CIGS DO
CLEAR...SKC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. NNE WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT NE OR LT/VRB
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH ALL BUT TOLEDO BEND AND KISATCHIE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FROM HALL SUMMIT
TO MONROE. OUR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE QUITE VARIED WITH
UPPER FORTIES AND LOW TO MID 50S WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE
NORTH AND GENERALLY RANGING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE
UNDER THE CLOUDS. OVERALL...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GIVING ONE LAST GOOD PUSH THIS MORNING...BUT WITH STILL
SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM DEEP EAST
TEXAS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HEATING. WE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL SEE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. OUR VAD IS SHOWING SOME DECENT DEPTH TO
THE N/NE FLOW OF CCA TO 3KFT AND SHOULD ACHIEVE 5KFT OR SO BY THIS
EVENING. NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHING NOW AND WILL LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SET TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDY DAY WITH SLACKING OVERNIGHT AND VERY RICH
CCA TAKING US DOWN IN THE LOW...BUT MOSTLY MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
AN AVERAGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WE COULD WELL SEE AN EARLY FREEZE
UP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OK/AR. EVEN OUR HIGHS WILL BE SOME
10-15 DEGREES COLDER ON SATURDAY...BUT START TO WARM ON SUNDAY. WE
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LOWS THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY A.M. MAY WIN OUT AS THE COLDEST OVERALL AND WITH CALMER
WINDS AND IT WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIALLY FROSTY MORNING. SO
TENDER PLANTS WILL MORE THAN BARE WATCHING AND LOOK TO NEED
PROTECTION FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. NORTH OF I-30 MAY AGAIN SEE
SOME VALLEY FREEZING READING SCATTERED UP NORTH WHICH IS A LITTLE
EARLY FOR MID FALL...BUT THIS IS A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL
DROP IN QUICKLY SO AS NOT TO MODIFY MUCH BY THE TIME IT SETS UP
SHOP. USUALLY WE SEE THE FIRST FREEZE UP NORTH IN THE FIRST OR
SECOND WEEK OF NOV. DOWN ALONG I-20 IT IS USUALLY BY MID NOVEMBER
OR SO. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE HERE
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS RAINFALL...THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE BACK AND FORTH NOW FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND EVEN SOMEWHAT
DRIER FOR TUESDAY. THE WETTER PERIOD MAY BE LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT TOTALS WITH STILL A
GOOD TROPICAL FETCH OFF OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BLENDED INTO THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  47  76  50  72 /  20   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  45  74  47  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEQ  76  39  74  43  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
TXK  74  46  74  50  67 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  44  74  46  68 /  20   0  10  10   0
TYR  75  49  76  50  70 /  20   0  10  10   0
GGG  75  46  76  49  71 /  20   0  10  10   0
LFK  77  51  78  49  74 /  30  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 291037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH ALL BUT TOLEDO BEND AND KISATCHIE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FROM HALL SUMMIT
TO MONROE. OUR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE QUITE VARIED WITH
UPPER FORTIES AND LOW TO MID 50S WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE
NORTH AND GENERALLY RANGING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE
UNDER THE CLOUDS. OVERALL...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GIVING ONE LAST GOOD PUSH THIS MORNING...BUT WITH STILL
SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM DEEP EAST
TEXAS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HEATING. WE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL SEE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. OUR VAD IS SHOWING SOME DECENT DEPTH TO
THE N/NE FLOW OF CCA TO 3KFT AND SHOULD ACHIEVE 5KFT OR SO BY THIS
EVENING. NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHING NOW AND WILL LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SET TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDY DAY WITH SLACKING OVERNIGHT AND VERY RICH
CCA TAKING US DOWN IN THE LOW...BUT MOSTLY MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
AN AVERAGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WE COULD WELL SEE AN EARLY FREEZE
UP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OK/AR. EVEN OUR HIGHS WILL BE SOME
10-15 DEGREES COLDER ON SATURDAY...BUT START TO WARM ON SUNDAY. WE
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LOWS THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY A.M. MAY WIN OUT AS THE COLDEST OVERALL AND WITH CALMER
WINDS AND IT WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIALLY FROSTY MORNING. SO
TENDER PLANTS WILL MORE THAN BARE WATCHING AND LOOK TO NEED
PROTECTION FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. NORTH OF I-30 MAY AGAIN SEE
SOME VALLEY FREEZING READING SCATTERED UP NORTH WHICH IS A LITTLE
EARLY FOR MID FALL...BUT THIS IS A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL
DROP IN QUICKLY SO AS NOT TO MODIFY MUCH BY THE TIME IT SETS UP
SHOP. USUALLY WE SEE THE FIRST FREEZE UP NORTH IN THE FIRST OR
SECOND WEEK OF NOV. DOWN ALONG I-20 IT IS USUALLY BY MID NOVEMBER
OR SO. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE HERE
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS RAINFALL...THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE BACK AND FORTH NOW FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND EVEN SOMEWHAT
DRIER FOR TUESDAY. THE WETTER PERIOD MAY BE LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT TOTALS WITH STILL A
GOOD TROPICAL FETCH OFF OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BLENDED INTO THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  47  76  50  72 /  20   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  45  74  47  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEQ  76  39  74  43  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
TXK  74  46  74  50  67 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  44  74  46  68 /  20   0  10  10   0
TYR  75  49  76  50  70 /  20   0  10  10   0
GGG  75  46  76  49  71 /  20   0  10  10   0
LFK  77  51  78  49  74 /  30  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 291037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH ALL BUT TOLEDO BEND AND KISATCHIE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FROM HALL SUMMIT
TO MONROE. OUR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE QUITE VARIED WITH
UPPER FORTIES AND LOW TO MID 50S WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE
NORTH AND GENERALLY RANGING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE
UNDER THE CLOUDS. OVERALL...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GIVING ONE LAST GOOD PUSH THIS MORNING...BUT WITH STILL
SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM DEEP EAST
TEXAS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HEATING. WE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL SEE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. OUR VAD IS SHOWING SOME DECENT DEPTH TO
THE N/NE FLOW OF CCA TO 3KFT AND SHOULD ACHIEVE 5KFT OR SO BY THIS
EVENING. NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHING NOW AND WILL LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SET TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDY DAY WITH SLACKING OVERNIGHT AND VERY RICH
CCA TAKING US DOWN IN THE LOW...BUT MOSTLY MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
AN AVERAGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WE COULD WELL SEE AN EARLY FREEZE
UP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OK/AR. EVEN OUR HIGHS WILL BE SOME
10-15 DEGREES COLDER ON SATURDAY...BUT START TO WARM ON SUNDAY. WE
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LOWS THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY A.M. MAY WIN OUT AS THE COLDEST OVERALL AND WITH CALMER
WINDS AND IT WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIALLY FROSTY MORNING. SO
TENDER PLANTS WILL MORE THAN BARE WATCHING AND LOOK TO NEED
PROTECTION FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. NORTH OF I-30 MAY AGAIN SEE
SOME VALLEY FREEZING READING SCATTERED UP NORTH WHICH IS A LITTLE
EARLY FOR MID FALL...BUT THIS IS A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL
DROP IN QUICKLY SO AS NOT TO MODIFY MUCH BY THE TIME IT SETS UP
SHOP. USUALLY WE SEE THE FIRST FREEZE UP NORTH IN THE FIRST OR
SECOND WEEK OF NOV. DOWN ALONG I-20 IT IS USUALLY BY MID NOVEMBER
OR SO. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE HERE
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS RAINFALL...THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE BACK AND FORTH NOW FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND EVEN SOMEWHAT
DRIER FOR TUESDAY. THE WETTER PERIOD MAY BE LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT TOTALS WITH STILL A
GOOD TROPICAL FETCH OFF OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BLENDED INTO THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  47  76  50  72 /  20   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  45  74  47  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEQ  76  39  74  43  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
TXK  74  46  74  50  67 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  44  74  46  68 /  20   0  10  10   0
TYR  75  49  76  50  70 /  20   0  10  10   0
GGG  75  46  76  49  71 /  20   0  10  10   0
LFK  77  51  78  49  74 /  30  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290447
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014


.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG AN OCH/MLU LINE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS ELD BY 29/06Z. HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH RANFALL ENDING
FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  74  50  75  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
MLU  58  72  45  72  48 /  60  30  10  10  10
DEQ  49  75  41  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10
TXK  54  73  48  72  49 /  30  10  10  10  10
ELD  55  72  44  71  47 /  60  20  10  10  10
TYR  57  74  50  74  52 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  58  74  49  74  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
LFK  63  75  54  76  53 /  50  40  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290319
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1019 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO BETWEEN KELD AND KMLU
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF KSHV AND TO NEAR KTYR AND KGGG WITH A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST TO THE REAR
OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE WINDS...DEW POINTS AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG AN ELD/SHV/TYR LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...NLY
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  74  50  75  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
MLU  58  72  45  72  48 /  60  30  10  10  10
DEQ  49  75  41  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10
TXK  54  73  48  72  49 /  30  10  10  10  10
ELD  55  72  44  71  47 /  60  20  10  10  10
TYR  57  74  50  74  52 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  58  74  49  74  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
LFK  63  75  54  76  53 /  50  40  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 282322
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
622 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG AN ELD/SHV/TYR LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...NLY
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  74  50  75  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
MLU  58  72  45  72  48 /  60  20  10  10  10
DEQ  49  75  41  72  45 /  30  10  10  10  10
TXK  54  73  48  72  49 /  40  10  10  10  10
ELD  55  72  44  71  47 /  60  20  10  10  10
TYR  57  74  50  74  52 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  58  74  49  74  51 /  50  20  10  10  10
LFK  63  75  54  76  53 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05








000
FXUS64 KSHV 282058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 28/20Z...COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF I-30 GENERALLY LOCATED NEAR
A LINE FROM KINJ...TO NORTH OF KTYR...TO NEAR KDNT...TO KHOT. NEXT
ROUND OF SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING BETWEEN I-20 AND
I-30. SHWRS/TSTMS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD A RICH PLUME OF
PAC MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE ERN PAC ALL THE WAY NWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST WV LOOPS SHOWS THAT THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE
HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE EAST BY DRY AIR. THIS IS THE MAIN REASON
WHY THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP HAS BEEN DELAYED AND MUCH OF THE CWA
HAS BEEN DRY SO FAR TODAY.

NEXT S/W TROUGH IS STILL UPSTREAM IN WRN KS/OK AND WRN N TX. THE
NARROW AREA OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD NOW SHOULD BE REPLACED BY MORE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THESE FEATURES ARRIVES...THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN SRN AR/NRN
LA. BULK OF THE TSTMS SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL SO SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE MINIMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BELOW ONE
INCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA FOR MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA. COOL AND
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AND
DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES
TO FCST RAIN WITH THIS FROPA AND THE NAME SUGGESTS AT LEAST A FEW
ISOLATES SHWRS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS
AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THIS FROPA. NWLY FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH NELY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES SHOULD PREVENT
ANY DECENT MOISTURE RETURN PRIOR TO THIS FRONT/S ARRIVAL...AND
IT/S USUALLY PRETTY DIFFICULT TO GENERATE PRECIP WITH ONLY MEAGER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

A LARGE CHUNK OF COLD NORTH CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SEWD
INTO THE ERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE AND IT WOULD NOT BE A STRETCH FOR
NEAR FREEZING TEMPS TO BE IN PLAY IN NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLDOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS SWLY FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS AND DAYTIME TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO BE FORECASTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME BUT THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO FAVOR MORE OF A POST-FRONTAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT EARLY
NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE THE USUAL TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISPLAY
UNUSUAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERING THE TIME FRAME
INVOLVED. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
CURRENTLY ALONG A KJDD/KTXK/KADF LINE. A FEW SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PD...AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SWD. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL LINGER AT A N LA AND DEEP E
TX SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...
THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE POST-
FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LINGER. OTHERWISE...SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA...AFTER WHICH NLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL
TAKE OVER. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  74  50  75  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
MLU  58  72  45  72  48 /  60  20  10  10  10
DEQ  49  75  41  72  45 /  30  10  10  10  10
TXK  54  73  48  72  49 /  40  10  10  10  10
ELD  55  72  44  71  47 /  60  20  10  10  10
TYR  57  74  50  74  52 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  58  74  49  74  51 /  50  20  10  10  10
LFK  63  75  54  76  53 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281834
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
134 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
CURRENTLY ALONG A KJDD/KTXK/KADF LINE. A FEW SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PD...AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SWD. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL LINGER AT A N LA AND DEEP E
TX SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...
THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE POST-
FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LINGER. OTHERWISE...SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA...AFTER WHICH NLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL
TAKE OVER. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS OF 28/16Z...COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SWD BUT IS STILL
JUST NORTH OF I-30. FIRST UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LIFTING NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA WHICH IS ALSO LEADING TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF
THE RAIN IN OUR NRN ZONES. A SECOND BAND OF SHWRS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CNTRL LA AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EWD. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UPSTREAM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WRN KS/OK/TX. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS THIS NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED POP AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST PRECIP TRENDS AND
FRONTAL POSITION. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  60  74  49  76 /  30  60  20  10  10
MLU  79  58  72  45  73 /  30  60  20  10  10
DEQ  71  49  75  40  73 /  50  30  10  10  10
TXK  73  54  73  47  73 /  60  40  10  10  10
ELD  73  55  72  43  72 /  60  60  20  10  10
TYR  78  57  74  49  75 /  30  30  20  10  10
GGG  77  58  74  48  75 /  30  50  20  10  10
LFK  80  63  75  53  77 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281623 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 28/16Z...COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SWD BUT IS STILL
JUST NORTH OF I-30. FIRST UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LIFTING NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA WHICH IS ALSO LEADING TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF
THE RAIN IN OUR NRN ZONES. A SECOND BAND OF SHWRS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CNTRL LA AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EWD. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UPSTREAM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WRN KS/OK/TX. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS THIS NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED POP AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST PRECIP TRENDS AND
FRONTAL POSITION. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND FG HAVE DEVELOPED/SPREAD NWD INTO
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/N LA THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY THOUGH OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE LOW VFR CIGS RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER N...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST W AND
N OF DFW...TO HHW...ACROSS NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK TO JUST N OF
MEZ AS OF 12Z. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR TODAY AS THE
FRONT REACHES A TYR...TO TXK...TO CDH LINE AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY.
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT LFK AND MLU
TODAY...WHILE ALSO POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE SHV TERMINAL JUST PRIOR
TO 00Z. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW MVFR CIGS SPILLING S SHORTLY AFTER THE FROPA
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE ANY THUNDER DIMINISH BY 06Z
WITH THE LOSS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT SCT -SHRA LOOK TO
PERSIST NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA/EXTREME SRN AR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME NNE AROUND 5KTS WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW
AR...AND ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA TONIGHT. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY AND MILD FOR LATE OCTOBER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF DURANT AND CLAYTON OK.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS MUCH OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ALONG EASTWARD OVER KN INTO NW MO WHILE TIED TO A DEEPENING
MIDWEST UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW A BIT WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT...BUT STILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SECOND VORT NOW OVER
UT AND CO DEEPENS THE OVERALL LONG WAVE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS
FAR AS WHAT IS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A SHARP LITTLE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN A FIXTURE ALL NIGHT LONG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT..BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LOOSING THUNDER AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH IT/S ELEMENTS OVER NE TX AT THIS TIME AS
THE PATTERN BELLYS OUT UNTIL THE NEXT VORT SWINGS INTO PLAY. OUR
AREA WIDE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS
LIKE TONIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH LIKELY POPS INTEGRATED WITH
WPC HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.

MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SWING OVERHEAD
TODAY...BUT WITH MOISTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS WE WILL TURN IN SOME DECENT QPF BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WIDE SPREAD NUMBERS MAY WELL LACK LUSTER IN
MANY LOCALES WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE MAINLY OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL. WPC HAS A SWATH OF BETTER THAN INCH TOTALS FROM NEAR
TEXARKANA...TO MEMPHIS. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE SECONDARY
SURGE WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SWINGING DOWN IN THE PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEK. ALSO TO NOTE SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN REMAINS LIKELY BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH A MUCH DEEPER TROPICAL CONNECTION ALONG
THE NEXT FRONTAL PATTERN. OVERALL...MAV IS QUITE REASONABLE AND
MEX IS A GOOD BIT COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
SOMEWHAT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  60  74  49  76 /  30  60  20  10  10
MLU  79  58  72  45  73 /  30  60  20  10  10
DEQ  71  49  75  40  73 /  50  30  10  10  10
TXK  73  54  73  47  73 /  60  40  10  10  10
ELD  73  55  72  43  72 /  60  60  20  10  10
TYR  78  57  74  49  75 /  30  30  20  10  10
GGG  77  58  74  48  75 /  30  50  20  10  10
LFK  80  63  75  53  77 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281221 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND FG HAVE DEVELOPED/SPREAD NWD INTO
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/N LA THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY THOUGH OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE LOW VFR CIGS RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER N...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST W AND
N OF DFW...TO HHW...ACROSS NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK TO JUST N OF
MEZ AS OF 12Z. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR TODAY AS THE
FRONT REACHES A TYR...TO TXK...TO CDH LINE AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY.
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT LFK AND MLU
TODAY...WHILE ALSO POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE SHV TERMINAL JUST PRIOR
TO 00Z. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW MVFR CIGS SPILLING S SHORTLY AFTER THE FROPA
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE ANY THUNDER DIMINISH BY 06Z
WITH THE LOSS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT SCT -SHRA LOOK TO
PERSIST NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA/EXTREME SRN AR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME NNE AROUND 5KTS WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW
AR...AND ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA TONIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY AND MILD FOR LATE OCTOBER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF DURANT AND CLAYTON OK.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS MUCH OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ALONG EASTWARD OVER KN INTO NW MO WHILE TIED TO A DEEPENING
MIDWEST UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW A BIT WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT...BUT STILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SECOND VORT NOW OVER
UT AND CO DEEPENS THE OVERALL LONG WAVE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS
FAR AS WHAT IS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A SHARP LITTLE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN A FIXTURE ALL NIGHT LONG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT..BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LOOSING THUNDER AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH IT/S ELEMENTS OVER NE TX AT THIS TIME AS
THE PATTERN BELLYS OUT UNTIL THE NEXT VORT SWINGS INTO PLAY. OUR
AREA WIDE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS
LIKE TONIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH LIKELY POPS INTEGRATED WITH
WPC HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.

MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SWING OVERHEAD
TODAY...BUT WITH MOISTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS WE WILL TURN IN SOME DECENT QPF BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WIDE SPREAD NUMBERS MAY WELL LACK LUSTER IN
MANY LOCALES WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE MAINLY OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL. WPC HAS A SWATH OF BETTER THAN INCH TOTALS FROM NEAR
TEXARKANA...TO MEMPHIS. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE SECONDARY
SURGE WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SWINGING DOWN IN THE PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEK. ALSO TO NOTE SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN REMAINS LIKELY BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH A MUCH DEEPER TROPICAL CONNECTION ALONG
THE NEXT FRONTAL PATTERN. OVERALL...MAV IS QUITE REASONABLE AND
MEX IS A GOOD BIT COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
SOMEWHAT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  60  74  49  76 /  30  60  20  10  10
MLU  81  58  72  45  73 /  30  60  20  10  10
DEQ  73  49  75  40  73 /  60  30  10  10  10
TXK  76  54  73  47  73 /  60  50  10  10  10
ELD  76  55  72  43  72 /  40  60  20  10  10
TYR  79  57  74  49  75 /  40  30  20  10  10
GGG  81  58  74  48  75 /  40  40  20  10  10
LFK  83  63  75  53  77 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281015
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
515 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY AND MILD FOR LATE OCTOBER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF DURANT AND CLAYTON OK.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS MUCH OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ALONG EASTWARD OVER KN INTO NW MO WHILE TIED TO A DEEPENING
MIDWEST UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW A BIT WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT...BUT STILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SECOND VORT NOW OVER
UT AND CO DEEPENS THE OVERALL LONG WAVE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS
FAR AS WHAT IS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A SHARP LITTLE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN A FIXTURE ALL NIGHT LONG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT..BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LOOSING THUNDER AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH IT/S ELEMENTS OVER NE TX AT THIS TIME AS
THE PATTERN BELLYS OUT UNTIL THE NEXT VORT SWINGS INTO PLAY. OUR
AREA WIDE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS
LIKE TONIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH LIKELY POPS INTEGRATED WITH
WPC HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.

MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SWING OVERHEAD
TODAY...BUT WITH MOISTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS WE WILL TURN IN SOME DECENT QPF BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WIDE SPREAD NUMBERS MAY WELL LACK LUSTER IN
MANY LOCALES WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE MAINLY OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL. WPC HAS A SWATH OF BETTER THAN INCH TOTALS FROM NEAR
TEXARKANA...TO MEMPHIS. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE SECONDARY
SURGE WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SWINGING DOWN IN THE PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEK. ALSO TO NOTE SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN REMAINS LIKELY BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH A MUCH DEEPER TROPICAL CONNECTION ALONG
THE NEXT FRONTAL PATTERN. OVERALL...MAV IS QUITE REASONABLE AND
MEX IS A GOOD BIT COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  60  74  49  76 /  30  60  20  10  10
MLU  81  58  72  45  73 /  30  60  20  10  10
DEQ  73  49  75  40  73 /  60  30  10  10  10
TXK  76  54  73  47  73 /  60  50  10  10  10
ELD  76  55  72  43  72 /  40  60  20  10  10
TYR  79  57  74  49  75 /  40  30  20  10  10
GGG  81  58  74  48  75 /  40  40  20  10  10
LFK  83  63  75  53  77 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







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