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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
808 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT THE REGION BY
30/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT LFK/MLU...WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO PATCHY FOG. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WITH IT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR INTO MORE OF NE TX AND NW LA...PRESENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NE TX AND SW
AR WILL PRECLUDE ME REMOVING MORE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS REALLY DO NOT WARRANT
IT.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO SHV TO
LZK WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OUR AREA
EXPERIENCES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE TX...NW LA
AND SW AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH SOME DESCENT AIRMASS
MODIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS INDICATIVE OF THIS AS WELL SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND NOTHING LIKE OUR
AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THIS RAINFALL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WE LOOK UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN
AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUR WAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. ALL THIS TO SAY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA UNLIKE THIS CURRENT EVENT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAKDOWN BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH AN APPARENT OMEGA BLOCK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLANKING TROUGHS
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  60  30  20  60
MLU  82  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  81  56  80  57 /  30  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  40  20  10  60
ELD  81  62  83  60 /  90  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  30  10  20  60
GGG  84  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  86  67  84  67 /  70  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 300905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WITH IT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR INTO MORE OF NE TX AND NW LA...PRESENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NE TX AND SW
AR WILL PRECLUDE ME REMOVING MORE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS REALLY DO NOT WARRANT
IT.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO SHV TO
LZK WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OUR AREA
EXPERIENCES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE TX...NW LA
AND SW AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH SOME DESCENT AIRMASS
MODIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS INDICATIVE OF THIS AS WELL SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND NOTHING LIKE OUR
AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THIS RAINFALL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WE LOOK UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN
AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUR WAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. ALL THIS TO SAY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA UNLIKE THIS CURRENT EVENT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAKDOWN BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH AN APPARENT OMEGA BLOCK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLANKING TROUGHS
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  60  30  20  60
MLU  82  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  81  56  80  57 /  30  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  40  20  10  60
ELD  81  62  83  60 /  90  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  30  10  20  60
GGG  84  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  86  67  84  67 /  70  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 300625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
125 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE PORTIONS OF NE TX...SE OK AND
SW AR FROM SVR WATCH #128 ATTM. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS...TEMPS...DEWPT
AND RH GRIDS.

UPDATE ALREADY SENT...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE IMPACTS
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KTYR.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR DUE TO THE PRECIP.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 30/18Z ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
VFR AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  67  82  63 /  70  50  20  50
MLU  81  68  83  65 /  70  70  30  40
DEQ  78  58  81  57 /  50  20  10  40
TXK  80  62  82  60 /  70  30  10  40
ELD  80  65  83  62 /  70  50  20  40
TYR  82  63  81  60 /  50  20  10  50
GGG  83  65  82  61 /  70  30  10  50
LFK  81  69  82  66 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

13/09/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 300605
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE IMPACTS
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KTYR.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR DUE TO THE PRECIP.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 30/18Z ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
VFR AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  63  74 /  50  20  50  60
MLU  68  83  65  75 /  70  30  40  60
DEQ  58  81  57  71 /  20  10  40  50
TXK  62  82  60  71 /  30  10  40  50
ELD  65  83  62  73 /  50  20  40  60
TYR  63  81  60  75 /  20  10  50  50
GGG  65  82  61  75 /  30  10  50  60
LFK  69  82  66  78 /  50  50  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 300605
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE IMPACTS
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KTYR.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR DUE TO THE PRECIP.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 30/18Z ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
VFR AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  63  74 /  50  20  50  60
MLU  68  83  65  75 /  70  30  40  60
DEQ  58  81  57  71 /  20  10  40  50
TXK  62  82  60  71 /  30  10  40  50
ELD  65  83  62  73 /  50  20  40  60
TYR  63  81  60  75 /  20  10  50  50
GGG  65  82  61  75 /  30  10  50  60
LFK  69  82  66  78 /  50  50  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 300327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
SEVERE TSTMS...ARE AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS IN E TX NORTH OF
I-20/SRN AR/SE OK. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20 IN E TX. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. A MORE SOLID LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 30/06Z
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION AFTER 30/21Z. A FEW LINGERING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01/00Z. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 292354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
SEVERE TSTMS...ARE AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS IN E TX NORTH OF
I-20/SRN AR/SE OK. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20 IN E TX. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. A MORE SOLID LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 30/06Z
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION AFTER 30/21Z. A FEW LINGERING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01/00Z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MULTI-THREAT EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...TWO SEPARATE HEAVY RAINFALL AXES HAVE SET
UP...ONE OVER OUR NE TX COUNTIES FROM NEAR TYLER TO DEKALB...AND
ANOTHER ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD THROUGH NEAR EL
DORADO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT EWD THROUGH THE EVENT. HAVE ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO
THE FF WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL NOT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME...SETTING MUCH OF THE WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z SUNDAY. ALLOWED THE EXTREME SERN PORTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUN. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW...AS THE SFC
LOW LIFTS NEWD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH
THAT. RAIN LOOKS TO FINALLY DIMINISH/END SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO RUN COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE ON TO OUR NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NWD AND ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING AS A
RESULT.

DESPITE THIS BETTER AGREEMENT...MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN FOR THE MID
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FINAL KICKER TROF. HOWEVER...ATTM
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE AN END OF PRECIP BY TUE NIGHT AS A
FINALLY PUSH OF DRY AIR FILTERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUR TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 292112
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MULTI-THREAT EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...TWO SEPARATE HEAVY RAINFALL AXES HAVE SET
UP...ONE OVER OUR NE TX COUNTIES FROM NEAR TYLER TO DEKALB...AND
ANOTHER ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD THROUGH NEAR EL
DORADO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT EWD THROUGH THE EVENT. HAVE ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO
THE FF WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL NOT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME...SETTING MUCH OF THE WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z SUNDAY. ALLOWED THE EXTREME SERN PORTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUN. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW...AS THE SFC
LOW LIFTS NEWD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH
THAT. RAIN LOOKS TO FINALLY DIMINISH/END SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO RUN COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE ON TO OUR NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NWD AND ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING AS A
RESULT.

DESPITE THIS BETTER AGREEMENT...MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN FOR THE MID
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FINAL KICKER TROF. HOWEVER...ATTM
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE AN END OF PRECIP BY TUE NIGHT AS A
FINALLY PUSH OF DRY AIR FILTERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUR TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PD. /12/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291901
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
201 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ISSUE TOR WATCH 125. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N NM TO EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH TO PROVIDE
NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN STRONG
TSTMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.  /VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  70  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  70  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  80  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  70  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291901
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
201 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ISSUE TOR WATCH 125. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N NM TO EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH TO PROVIDE
NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN STRONG
TSTMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.  /VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  70  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  70  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  80  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  70  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291649
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1149 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N NM TO EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH TO PROVIDE
NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN STRONG
TSTMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.  /VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  64  86 /  90  70  50  10
MLU  68  84  66  84 /  90  70  70  30
DEQ  64  82  56  82 /  90  40  20  10
TXK  66  82  60  84 /  90  50  30  10
ELD  67  80  63  85 /  90  70  50  10
TYR  67  84  61  85 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  67  82  62  85 /  90  50  30  10
LFK  68  82  66  86 /  90  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

08





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291618
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AT KTXK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
EXPECT A MIX BAG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT THE REGION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  70  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  50  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  80  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  70  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291149
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AT KTXK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
EXPECT A MIX BAG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT THE REGION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  50  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  40  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  70  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  60  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291149
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AT KTXK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
EXPECT A MIX BAG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT THE REGION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  50  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  40  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  70  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  60  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 290814
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  50  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  40  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  70  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  60  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 290516
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. KTXK
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM PRECIP
INITIALLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD AND LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG MAY LEAD TO MVFR/PATCHY
IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AFTER SUNRISE AFFECTING MAINLY KTXK AND KELD.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 29/18Z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
S OF ACT...TO NEAR DKR...TO LFK...ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
TO A IER TO HEZ LINE AS OF 02Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING A DFW...TO OSA...TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY FOCUSED
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FROM NEAR/S OF ACT E INTO
ANDERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL/ECNTRL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER N LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO NE
TX/SW AR/SE OK WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK...WHICH MAY YIELD A FEW HAILERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATE.

HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR E TX/NCNTRL LA...BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
LATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE FARTHER SSE OF THIS AREA OVER E TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR. ALSO
ADDED IN HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRAIN OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO EXPAND THE FFA AS NEEDED ONCE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND IS ANALYZED.

ALSO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS THEY
MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND SLOWLY RISE LATE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  83  65  83 /  80  60  60  20
MLU  70  81  66  82 /  60  70  70  30
DEQ  66  81  58  79 /  80  50  30  10
TXK  68  82  62  81 /  80  60  50  10
ELD  68  80  63  82 /  70  70  60  20
TYR  68  83  63  81 /  80  60  30  10
GGG  69  83  64  83 /  80  60  50  10
LFK  70  83  67  82 /  80  60  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 290311
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
S OF ACT...TO NEAR DKR...TO LFK...ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
TO A IER TO HEZ LINE AS OF 02Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING A DFW...TO OSA...TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY FOCUSED
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FROM NEAR/S OF ACT E INTO
ANDERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL/ECNTRL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER N LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO NE
TX/SW AR/SE OK WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK...WHICH MAY YIELD A FEW HAILERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATE.

HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR E TX/NCNTRL LA...BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
LATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE FARTHER SSE OF THIS AREA OVER E TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR. ALSO
ADDED IN HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRAIN OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO EXPAND THE FFA AS NEEDED ONCE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND IS ANALYZED.

ALSO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS THEY
MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND SLOWLY RISE LATE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 29/06Z BUT A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO
THE TAF SITES. THUS...HAVE KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
THE FRONT AFTER 29/10Z WHEN THE FRONT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  40  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  20  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  66  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  64  80  68  80 /  40  80  70  70
TYR  70  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  69  84  69  83 /  50  70  80  60
LFK  72  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 290311
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
S OF ACT...TO NEAR DKR...TO LFK...ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
TO A IER TO HEZ LINE AS OF 02Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING A DFW...TO OSA...TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY FOCUSED
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FROM NEAR/S OF ACT E INTO
ANDERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL/ECNTRL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER N LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO NE
TX/SW AR/SE OK WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK...WHICH MAY YIELD A FEW HAILERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATE.

HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR E TX/NCNTRL LA...BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
LATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE FARTHER SSE OF THIS AREA OVER E TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR. ALSO
ADDED IN HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRAIN OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO EXPAND THE FFA AS NEEDED ONCE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND IS ANALYZED.

ALSO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS THEY
MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND SLOWLY RISE LATE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 29/06Z BUT A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO
THE TAF SITES. THUS...HAVE KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
THE FRONT AFTER 29/10Z WHEN THE FRONT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  40  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  20  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  66  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  64  80  68  80 /  40  80  70  70
TYR  70  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  69  84  69  83 /  50  70  80  60
LFK  72  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 290001
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 29/06Z BUT A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO
THE TAF SITES. THUS...HAVE KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
THE FRONT AFTER 29/10Z WHEN THE FRONT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET WEATHER TREND IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END...AS SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NRN AZ. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE S OF OUR REGION
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LUFKIN TX TO EL DORADO
AR LINE. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PLACE FOR THIS
GENERAL AREA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR OUR FAR NWRN E TX
COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE I-30
CORRIDOR...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SET-UP FOR TRAINING STORMS. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.

AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXPAND TO COVER
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUCH
THAT THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS MAY INTRODUCE A SECONDARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AND ADDITIONS TO THE ONGOING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO
BRING IT FURTHER S. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS AS
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN LA/SRN AR AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO LINGER OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A VERY SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIP IS SET FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE KEPT POPS CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...GIVING SOME
DEFERENCE TO BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
A COOL DOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  30  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  30  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  65  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  66  80  68  80 /  30  80  70  70
TYR  69  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  70  84  69  83 /  40  70  80  60
LFK  71  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 282100
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET WEATHER TREND IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END...AS SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NRN AZ. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE S OF OUR REGION
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LUFKIN TX TO EL DORADO
AR LINE. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PLACE FOR THIS
GENERAL AREA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR OUR FAR NWRN E TX
COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE I-30
CORRIDOR...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SET-UP FOR TRAINING STORMS. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.

AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXPAND TO COVER
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUCH
THAT THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS MAY INTRODUCE A SECONDARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AND ADDITIONS TO THE ONGOING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO
BRING IT FURTHER S. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS AS
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN LA/SRN AR AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO LINGER OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A VERY SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIP IS SET FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE KEPT POPS CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...GIVING SOME
DEFERENCE TO BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
A COOL DOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...NOW STATIONARY FRONT WELL N OF I-10. SKC HERE W/
NE SFC WINDS 5-10 KTS OVER LA/SE RETURN FLOW OVER E TX. KSHV VAD
IS SHOWING SE FLOW 10KTS 2-5KFT...THEN VARIABLE TO AN INVERSION AT
10KFT WHERE SW FLOW 30-50KTS ALOFT EXTENDS ON UP. AN APPROACHING
UPPER STORM OVER AZ IS MOVG E WILL TRANSPORT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE PILES IN OFF E PAC/GULF. THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WELL AFTER SUNSET WILL BE ALONG/OVER THE RETURNING WARM
FRONT 29/03-09Z. SCT/NUM TSTMS WILL BE IN/OUT IN WAVES UNTIL THE
NEXT FROPA 01/06-12Z. VFR POSSIBLE LATE SAT PRE FRONT AND THEN FOR
ALL SUNDAY WITH SFC N WINDS 5-10KTS AND N/NW 10-15KTS UP TO 10KFT.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  30  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  30  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  65  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  66  80  68  80 /  30  80  70  70
TYR  69  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  70  84  69  83 /  40  70  80  60
LFK  71  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 282100
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET WEATHER TREND IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END...AS SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NRN AZ. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE S OF OUR REGION
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LUFKIN TX TO EL DORADO
AR LINE. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PLACE FOR THIS
GENERAL AREA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR OUR FAR NWRN E TX
COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE I-30
CORRIDOR...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SET-UP FOR TRAINING STORMS. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.

AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXPAND TO COVER
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUCH
THAT THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS MAY INTRODUCE A SECONDARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AND ADDITIONS TO THE ONGOING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO
BRING IT FURTHER S. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS AS
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN LA/SRN AR AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO LINGER OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A VERY SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIP IS SET FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE KEPT POPS CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...GIVING SOME
DEFERENCE TO BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
A COOL DOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...NOW STATIONARY FRONT WELL N OF I-10. SKC HERE W/
NE SFC WINDS 5-10 KTS OVER LA/SE RETURN FLOW OVER E TX. KSHV VAD
IS SHOWING SE FLOW 10KTS 2-5KFT...THEN VARIABLE TO AN INVERSION AT
10KFT WHERE SW FLOW 30-50KTS ALOFT EXTENDS ON UP. AN APPROACHING
UPPER STORM OVER AZ IS MOVG E WILL TRANSPORT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE PILES IN OFF E PAC/GULF. THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WELL AFTER SUNSET WILL BE ALONG/OVER THE RETURNING WARM
FRONT 29/03-09Z. SCT/NUM TSTMS WILL BE IN/OUT IN WAVES UNTIL THE
NEXT FROPA 01/06-12Z. VFR POSSIBLE LATE SAT PRE FRONT AND THEN FOR
ALL SUNDAY WITH SFC N WINDS 5-10KTS AND N/NW 10-15KTS UP TO 10KFT.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  30  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  30  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  65  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  66  80  68  80 /  30  80  70  70
TYR  69  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  70  84  69  83 /  40  70  80  60
LFK  71  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281819
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
119 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...NOW STATIONARY FRONT WELL N OF I-10. SKC HERE W/
NE SFC WINDS 5-10 KTS OVER LA/SE RETURN FLOW OVER E TX. KSHV VAD
IS SHOWING SE FLOW 10KTS 2-5KFT...THEN VARIABLE TO AN INVERSION AT
10KFT WHERE SW FLOW 30-50KTS ALOFT EXTENDS ON UP. AN APPROACHING
UPPER STORM OVER AZ IS MOVG E WILL TRANSPORT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE PILES IN OFF E PAC/GULF. THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WELL AFTER SUNSET WILL BE ALONG/OVER THE RETURNING WARM
FRONT 29/03-09Z. SCT/NUM TSTMS WILL BE IN/OUT IN WAVES UNTIL THE
NEXT FROPA 01/06-12Z. VFR POSSIBLE LATE SAT PRE FRONT AND THEN FOR
ALL SUNDAY WITH SFC N WINDS 5-10KTS AND N/NW 10-15KTS UP TO 10KFT.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND ELY WINDS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES CHARACTERIZE THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD WARM UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST IS FCST TO
LIFT NWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS
INTO OUR CENTRAL LA/TOLEDO BEND AREAS. THE ONGOING 20 POPS SHOULD
COVER THIS NICELY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REPRESENT THE CURRENT OBS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FCST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS INDICATED THE LOCATION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS INDICATED OVER THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS AND
THEN THE WESTERN END WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS TEXAS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
NEAR 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY PROVIDING A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIVING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WITH
A DRY LINE BRANCHING FROM THE BOUNDARY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SATURDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
TRIBUTARIES AND LAKES AND RIVERS AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING DURING
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  83  69 /  10  30  60  70
MLU  86  68  84  70 /  10  20  60  50
DEQ  85  64  76  66 /   0  60  70  70
TXK  85  66  78  68 /  10  60  70  70
ELD  85  66  80  68 /  10  30  70  70
TYR  86  68  83  69 /  10  50  60  70
GGG  86  68  83  69 /  10  40  60  70
LFK  87  71  86  70 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/12/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281622
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1122 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND ELY WINDS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES CHARACTERIZE THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD WARM UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST IS FCST TO
LIFT NWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS
INTO OUR CENTRAL LA/TOLEDO BEND AREAS. THE ONGOING 20 POPS SHOULD
COVER THIS NICELY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REPRESENT THE CURRENT OBS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FCST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT LFK/MLU
AS PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE FOG WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN. ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 29/03Z. THIS
COULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...AS SCT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE ESE
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AFTER 28/18Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS INDICATED THE LOCATION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS INDICATED OVER THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS AND
THEN THE WESTERN END WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS TEXAS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
NEAR 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY PROVIDING A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIVING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WITH
A DRY LINE BRANCHING FROM THE BOUNDARY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SATURDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
TRIBUTARIES AND LAKES AND RIVERS AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING DURING
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  83  69 /  10  30  60  70
MLU  86  68  84  70 /  10  20  60  50
DEQ  85  64  76  66 /   0  60  70  70
TXK  85  66  78  68 /  10  60  70  70
ELD  85  66  80  68 /  10  30  70  70
TYR  86  68  83  69 /  10  50  60  70
GGG  86  68  83  69 /  10  40  60  70
LFK  87  71  86  70 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281622
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1122 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND ELY WINDS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES CHARACTERIZE THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD WARM UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST IS FCST TO
LIFT NWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS
INTO OUR CENTRAL LA/TOLEDO BEND AREAS. THE ONGOING 20 POPS SHOULD
COVER THIS NICELY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REPRESENT THE CURRENT OBS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FCST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT LFK/MLU
AS PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE FOG WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN. ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 29/03Z. THIS
COULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...AS SCT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE ESE
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AFTER 28/18Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS INDICATED THE LOCATION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS INDICATED OVER THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS AND
THEN THE WESTERN END WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS TEXAS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
NEAR 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY PROVIDING A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIVING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WITH
A DRY LINE BRANCHING FROM THE BOUNDARY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SATURDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
TRIBUTARIES AND LAKES AND RIVERS AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING DURING
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  83  69 /  10  30  60  70
MLU  86  68  84  70 /  10  20  60  50
DEQ  85  64  76  66 /   0  60  70  70
TXK  85  66  78  68 /  10  60  70  70
ELD  85  66  80  68 /  10  30  70  70
TYR  86  68  83  69 /  10  50  60  70
GGG  86  68  83  69 /  10  40  60  70
LFK  87  71  86  70 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281222
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
722 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT LFK/MLU
AS PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE FOG WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN. ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 29/03Z. THIS
COULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...AS SCT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE ESE
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AFTER 28/18Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS INDICATED THE LOCATION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS INDICATED OVER THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS AND
THEN THE WESTERN END WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS TEXAS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
NEAR 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY PROVIDING A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIVING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WITH
A DRY LINE BRANCHING FROM THE BOUNDARY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SATURDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
TRIBUTARIES AND LAKES AND RIVERS AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING DURING
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. /06/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  83  69 /  10  30  60  70
MLU  86  68  84  70 /  10  20  60  50
DEQ  85  64  76  66 /   0  60  70  70
TXK  85  66  78  68 /  10  60  70  70
ELD  85  66  80  68 /  10  30  70  70
TYR  86  68  83  69 /  10  50  60  70
GGG  86  68  83  69 /  10  40  60  70
LFK  87  71  86  70 /  20  30  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281136
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS INDICATED THE LOCATION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS INDICATED OVER THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS AND
THEN THE WESTERN END WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS TEXAS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
NEAR 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY PROVIDING A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIVING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WITH
A DRY LINE BRANCHING FROM THE BOUNDARY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SATURDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
TRIBUTARIES AND LAKES AND RIVERS AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING DURING
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/06Z TAF PERIOD...AS SKC WILL
PREVAIL. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS
MORNING MAINLY OVER THE ELD/MLU/LFK TERMINALS...NEAR AND E/S OF A WEAK
SFC TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO SE TX/SCNTRL LA THROUGH MID-
MORNING THURSDAY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING S. A RETURN SERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK CU FIELD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THIS CU SHOULD SPREAD BACK N ACROSS E TX/N LA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH ELEVATED CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z NEAR/N OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL AT LFK NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...BEFORE SPREADING N TO THE I-20 TERMINALS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
SHOULD SEE SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AS WELL
OVER NE TX/SW AR/SE OK/POSSIBLY NW LA NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT.
LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT ENE THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
QUICKLY VEERING ESE 5-10KTS AFTER 18Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  83  69 /  10  30  60  70
MLU  86  68  84  70 /  10  20  60  50
DEQ  85  64  76  66 /   0  60  70  70
TXK  85  66  78  68 /  10  60  70  70
ELD  85  66  80  68 /  10  30  70  70
TYR  86  68  83  69 /  10  50  60  70
GGG  86  68  83  69 /  10  40  60  70
LFK  87  71  86  70 /  20  30  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280454 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1154 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/06Z TAF PERIOD...AS SKC WILL
PREVAIL. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS
MORNING MAINLY OVER THE ELD/MLU/LFK TERMINALS...NEAR AND E/S OF A WEAK
SFC TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO SE TX/SCNTRL LA THROUGH MID-
MORNING THURSDAY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING S. A RETURN SERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK CU FIELD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THIS CU SHOULD SPREAD BACK N ACROSS E TX/N LA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH ELEVATED CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z NEAR/N OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL AT LFK NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...BEFORE SPREADING N TO THE I-20 TERMINALS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
SHOULD SEE SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AS WELL
OVER NE TX/SW AR/SE OK/POSSIBLY NW LA NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT.
LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT ENE THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
QUICKLY VEERING ESE 5-10KTS AFTER 18Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A VERY PLEASANT
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES LEFT TO FALL IN THIS
CONDUCIVE SETUP FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. UPDATES TONIGHT
INCLUDE LOWERING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN
MOST AREAS AS WELL AS LOWERING SKY COVER AND LOADING IN NEW WIND
DATA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  86  68  82 /  0  10  30  60
MLU  64  86  68  82 /  0  10  20  60
DEQ  55  85  64  75 /  0  10  40  70
TXK  58  85  66  77 /  0  10  30  70
ELD  59  85  66  79 /  0  10  30  70
TYR  59  86  68  82 /  0  10  40  60
GGG  59  86  68  82 /  0  10  30  60
LFK  64  88  70  85 /  0  20  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A VERY PLEASANT
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES LEFT TO FALL IN THIS
CONDUCIVE SETUP FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. UPDATES TONIGHT
INCLUDE LOWERING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN
MOST AREAS AS WELL AS LOWERING SKY COVER AND LOADING IN NEW WIND
DATA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/00Z TAF PERIOD. SKC
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT E AND S OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A BUILDING
AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR. CAN/T RULE OUT
PATCHY FG BETWEEN 10-13Z OVER THE MLU/LFK TERMINALS AS THESE
AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE WEAK SFC TROUGH ITSELF. COULD SEE A WEAK CU
FIELD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER DEEP E TX AND PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS OUT OF THE SE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. LT W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME LT/VRB OR LIGHT NNE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT ENE WINDS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL RETURN TO THE SE 5-10KTS AFTER 18Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
STG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RACED ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH NO
REDVELOPMENT IN WORKED OVER AIRMASS AND DRIER MID LVLS.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...
WITH RAIN AND STORMS RETURNING FROM THE SW WITH A WARM FRONT LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAK IN RAIN IN WAKE OF THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO AR...WITH DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG ACROSS
SOUTHERN PLAINS PUMPING DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG RED
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN ANOTHER RISE OF THE RED
RIVER...WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO NORTERN LA ON SATURDAY. FLOOD
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THIS TWO DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN TOTALS MAY COVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  86  68  82 /  10  10  30  60
MLU  64  86  68  82 /  10  10  20  60
DEQ  55  85  64  75 /  10  10  40  70
TXK  58  85  66  77 /  10  10  30  70
ELD  59  85  66  79 /  10  10  30  70
TYR  59  86  68  82 /  10  10  40  60
GGG  59  86  68  82 /  10  10  30  60
LFK  64  88  70  85 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272330 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/00Z TAF PERIOD. SKC
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT E AND S OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A BUILDING
AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR. CAN/T RULE OUT
PATCHY FG BETWEEN 10-13Z OVER THE MLU/LFK TERMINALS AS THESE
AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE WEAK SFC TROUGH ITSELF. COULD SEE A WEAK CU
FIELD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER DEEP E TX AND PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS OUT OF THE SE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. LT W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME LT/VRB OR LIGHT NNE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT ENE WINDS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL RETURN TO THE SE 5-10KTS AFTER 18Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
STG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RACED ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH NO
REDVELOPMENT IN WORKED OVER AIRMASS AND DRIER MID LVLS.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...
WITH RAIN AND STORMS RETURNING FROM THE SW WITH A WARM FRONT LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAK IN RAIN IN WAKE OF THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO AR...WITH DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG ACROSS
SOUTHERN PLAINS PUMPING DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG RED
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN ANOTHER RISE OF THE RED
RIVER...WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO NORTERN LA ON SATURDAY. FLOOD
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THIS TWO DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN TOTALS MAY COVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  86  68  82 /  0  10  30  60
MLU  64  86  68  82 /  0  10  20  60
DEQ  56  85  64  75 /  0  10  40  70
TXK  60  85  66  77 /  0  10  30  70
ELD  61  85  66  79 /  0  10  30  70
TYR  60  86  68  82 /  0  10  40  60
GGG  61  86  68  82 /  0  10  30  60
LFK  63  88  70  85 /  0  20  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
348 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RACED ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH NO
REDVELOPMENT IN WORKED OVER AIRMASS AND DRIER MID LVLS.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...
WITH RAIN AND STORMS RETURNING FROM THE SW WITH A WARM FRONT LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAK IN RAIN IN WAKE OF THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO AR...WITH DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG ACROSS
SOUTHERN PLAINS PUMPING DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG RED
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN ANOTHER RISE OF THE RED
RIVER...WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO NORTERN LA ON SATURDAY. FLOOD
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THIS TWO DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN TOTALS MAY COVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 132 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC FOR ALL BUT KMLU WITH S/SW WINDS FROM THE
GROUND UP FROM 10KTS UP TO 50KTS AT FL. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OUR WAY TONIGHT BRINGING L/V OR CALM WINDS. THE UPPER
LOW OVER E NB WILL CONTINUE LIFTING N AS THE ENERGY DISSIPATES AND
THE LOW FILLS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH LEFT E TO
DVLP AN ISOLD TSTM 22-04Z BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS. DAYBREAK...SFC
WINDS SLACK AND DAMP GROUND COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY BRIEF 3-5BR
10-13Z AT A FEW SITES. OTHERWISE E/SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KTS/FEW CU.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH
AND ONLY EXPECTED POSSIBLE ISOLD REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WORKED OVER AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO DESTABILIZE.
THIS WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...BY DRIER AIR ENTERING MID LVLS.
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND DRY AIR ALOFT...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/SQUALL LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PAN HANDLES AND ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS IT LOSES ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER PUSH. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TRAILED SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TODAY
AND DURING THE EVENING AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE WESTERN END OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SWINGS TO THE EAST AND OUT INTO THE ROCKIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH A TRAILING DRY LINE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE RAINS WILL
END FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL MID WEEK CONVECTION. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  86  68  82 /  10  10  30  60
MLU  64  86  68  82 /  10  10  20  60
DEQ  56  85  64  75 /  10  10  40  70
TXK  60  85  66  77 /  10  10  30  70
ELD  61  85  66  79 /  10  10  30  70
TYR  60  86  68  82 /  10  10  40  60
GGG  61  86  68  82 /  10  10  30  60
LFK  63  88  70  85 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271832
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
132 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC FOR ALL BUT KMLU WITH S/SW WINDS FROM THE
GROUND UP FROM 10KTS UP TO 50KTS AT FL. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OUR WAY TONIGHT BRINGING L/V OR CALM WINDS. THE UPPER
LOW OVER E NB WILL CONTINUE LIFTING N AS THE ENERGY DISSIPATES AND
THE LOW FILLS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH LEFT E TO
DVLP AN ISOLD TSTM 22-04Z BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS. DAYBREAK...SFC
WINDS SLACK AND DAMP GROUND COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY BRIEF 3-5BR
10-13Z AT A FEW SITES. OTHERWISE E/SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KTS/FEW CU.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH
AND ONLY EXPECTED POSSIBLE ISOLD REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WORKED OVER AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO DESTABILIZE.
THIS WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...BY DRIER AIR ENTERING MID LVLS.
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND DRY AIR ALOFT...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/SQUALL LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PAN HANDLES AND ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS IT LOSES ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER PUSH. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TRAILED SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TODAY
AND DURING THE EVENING AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE WESTERN END OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SWINGS TO THE EAST AND OUT INTO THE ROCKIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH A TRAILING DRY LINE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE RAINS WILL
END FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL MID WEEK CONVECTION. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  65  86  68 /  20  20  10  50
MLU  82  67  86  68 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  82  58  85  64 /  20  10  10  40
TXK  84  62  85  66 /  20  10  10  50
ELD  81  64  85  66 /  20  20  10  30
TYR  85  63  86  68 /  10  10  10  60
GGG  85  64  86  68 /  20  10  10  50
LFK  84  67  88  70 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271832
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
132 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC FOR ALL BUT KMLU WITH S/SW WINDS FROM THE
GROUND UP FROM 10KTS UP TO 50KTS AT FL. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OUR WAY TONIGHT BRINGING L/V OR CALM WINDS. THE UPPER
LOW OVER E NB WILL CONTINUE LIFTING N AS THE ENERGY DISSIPATES AND
THE LOW FILLS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH LEFT E TO
DVLP AN ISOLD TSTM 22-04Z BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS. DAYBREAK...SFC
WINDS SLACK AND DAMP GROUND COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY BRIEF 3-5BR
10-13Z AT A FEW SITES. OTHERWISE E/SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KTS/FEW CU.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH
AND ONLY EXPECTED POSSIBLE ISOLD REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WORKED OVER AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO DESTABILIZE.
THIS WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...BY DRIER AIR ENTERING MID LVLS.
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND DRY AIR ALOFT...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/SQUALL LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PAN HANDLES AND ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS IT LOSES ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER PUSH. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TRAILED SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TODAY
AND DURING THE EVENING AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE WESTERN END OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SWINGS TO THE EAST AND OUT INTO THE ROCKIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH A TRAILING DRY LINE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE RAINS WILL
END FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL MID WEEK CONVECTION. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  65  86  68 /  20  20  10  50
MLU  82  67  86  68 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  82  58  85  64 /  20  10  10  40
TXK  84  62  85  66 /  20  10  10  50
ELD  81  64  85  66 /  20  20  10  30
TYR  85  63  86  68 /  10  10  10  60
GGG  85  64  86  68 /  20  10  10  50
LFK  84  67  88  70 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH
AND ONLY EXPECTED POSSIBLE ISOLD REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WORKED OVER AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO DESTABILIZE.
THIS WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...BY DRIER AIR ENTERING MID LVLS.
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND DRY AIR ALOFT...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A MIX BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SHV/MLU/ELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING HOURS. THE REST
OF THE SITES WILL HAVE IMPROVING CIGS BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL
VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BEFORE IT STALLS
OUT LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
28/00Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/SQUALL LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PAN HANDLES AND ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS IT LOSES ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER PUSH. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TRAILED SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TODAY
AND DURING THE EVENING AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE WESTERN END OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SWINGS TO THE EAST AND OUT INTO THE ROCKIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH A TRAILING DRY LINE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE RAINS WILL
END FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL MID WEEK CONVECTION. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  65  86  68 /  20  20  10  50
MLU  82  67  86  68 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  82  58  85  64 /  20  10  10  40
TXK  84  62  85  66 /  20  10  10  50
ELD  81  64  85  66 /  20  20  10  30
TYR  85  63  86  68 /  10  10  10  60
GGG  85  64  86  68 /  20  10  10  50
LFK  84  67  88  70 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 271505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE MOVG EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH
AND ONLY EXPECTED POSSIBLE ISOLD REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WORKED OVER AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO DESTABILIZE.
THIS WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...BY DRIER AIR ENTERING MID LVLS.
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND DRY AIR ALOFT...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A MIX BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SHV/MLU/ELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING HOURS. THE REST
OF THE SITES WILL HAVE IMPROVING CIGS BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL
VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BEFORE IT STALLS
OUT LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
28/00Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/SQUALL LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PAN HANDLES AND ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS IT LOSES ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER PUSH. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TRAILED SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TODAY
AND DURING THE EVENING AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE WESTERN END OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SWINGS TO THE EAST AND OUT INTO THE ROCKIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH A TRAILING DRY LINE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE RAINS WILL
END FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL MID WEEK CONVECTION. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  65  86  68 /  20  20  10  50
MLU  82  67  86  68 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  82  58  85  64 /  20  10  10  40
TXK  84  62  85  66 /  20  10  10  50
ELD  81  64  85  66 /  20  20  10  30
TYR  85  63  86  68 /  10  10  10  60
GGG  85  64  86  68 /  20  10  10  50
LFK  84  67  88  70 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





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